Red Sox, Blue Jays to swap shortstops?

It had to be the Blue Jays.

Of all the teams that could have snapped up Alex Gonzalez this early in free agency, it had to be the Blue Jays.

Perfect.

The Blue Jays signed infielder John McDonald to a two-year deal on Wednesday, and word leaked on Thursday that the Blue Jays have signed former Red Sox shortstop Alex Gonzalez for $2.75 million in 2010 with a team option for $2.5 million in 2011.

Many have taken the news to mean that the Blue Jays won't offer salary arbitration to incumbent shortstop Marco Scutaro, a free agent who happens to fit exactly what the Red Sox are going to want in their next shortstop.

The move doesn't necessarily preclude an offer of arbitration -- Scutaro earned $1.1 million last season and wouldn't be awarded more than $3 million even by a friendly arbitrator, far from an impossible number to absorb. But it also doesn't make any sense for the Blue Jays to bring Gonzalez, McDonald, Scutaro and third baseman Edwin Encarnacion to spring training next season with only two positions to split among them.

It's almost stunning, actually, that the Blue Jays would eliminate Scutaro as an option this early in free agency -- especially in favor of the light-hitting Gonzalez.

If the Red Sox can land Scutaro -- and the Boston Herald says they're at or near the top of his list -- they wouldn't just be replacing Gonzalez. They'd be upgrading on Gonzalez. Consider the head-to-head comparison:

Age on Opening Day
Gonzalez: 33
Scutaro: 34

2009 BA/OBP/SLG
Gonzalez: .238/.279/.355
Scutaro: .282/.379/.381

Career BA/OBP/SLG
Gonzalez: .247/.294/.395
Scutaro: .265/.337/.384

Swinging at pitches out of the strike zone
Gonzalez: 37.1 percent
Scutaro: 12.3 percent*
*2nd in major leagues

Making contact with pitches in the strike zone
Gonzalez: 92.7 percent
Scutaro: 95.7 percent*
*5th in major leagues

Pitches per plate appearance
Gonzalez: 3.57 (3.54 in 2009)
Scutaro: 3.79 (4.06 in 2009)

Ultimate Zone Rating (per 150 games) at SS in 2009
Gonzalez: 10.5
Scutaro: 1.0

Fielding Bible plus-minus at SS in 2009
Gonzalez: minus-7
Scutaro: plus-16

Sure, Scutaro is a 34-year-old journeyman who just enjoyed a career year. But his peripherals -- including the fact that he's better than J.D. Drew at ignoring pitches out of the strike zone -- indicate that his on-base percentage isn't fluky.

He doesn't have to hit cleanup in the Red Sox batting order. He'd probably hit ninth most of the time. But he's a guy who would work deep into counts even from the bottom of the batting order and who could get on base in front of Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia. All indications are that he'd play a terrific defensive shortstop -- and third base, if necessary -- on top of that.

In a lot of ways, the Blue Jays' signing of Gonzalez this week is the best break the Red Sox could have gotten. It gives Theo Epstein a chance to make a huge upgrade at shortstop.

Recent moves mean Lowrie is Boston's guy

There aren't many shortstops available on the free-agent market -- or, at least, many appealing shortstops available. If Bobby Crosby or Adam Everett excite you, well, you might want to calm down.

That means, barring a run after blog favorite Marco Scutaro, a slick-fielding shortstop and third baseman coming off a career year, the Twins' acquisition of J.J. Hardy means the Red Sox still see Jed Lowrie as their long-term shortstop.

The report Sunday that the Red Sox had declined their option on Alex Gonzalez, well, that only reinforces the idea.

Theo Epstein told reporters after the season that he didn't envision Lowrie going into spring training as the unquestioned starting shortstop based on his up-and-down health history in his short career in the major leagues.

"I don’t think we can hand a job to him because he hasn’t proved his health yet at this point," Epstein said. "But at the same time, I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re sitting here at this time next year, ... looking back and saying, 'Wow, he really got healthy and proved himself in winning that job or playing his way into a meaningful role.'"

But Lowrie spent most of September telling reporters his surgically repaired wrist would be fine after a winter of rest.

"Going into the offseason," he said, "if I do what I did last offseason, I think I'm going to feel like I did during spring training -- but have a structurally sound wrist as opposed to having a broken wrist."

If the Red Sox didn't share that sentiment, they wouldn't have declined their option on Gonzalez -- and they might have made a harder run at Hardy. Gonzalez seemed like a natural fit as a one-year stopgap for Lowrie, and Hardy looked like a potential long-term solution at the position if he could show that his .229 batting average and .659 OPS a year ago was a fluke.

But neither Gonzalez nor Hardy has ever OBP'ed better than .343 for a single season. Hardy's .368 on-base percentage in a full season in Double-A was his highest as a professional; in five seasons in the minor leagues, his career OBP is .332.

Lowrie, on the other hand, got on base at a .339 clip in his first prolonged action in the major leagues in 2008 and hadn't ever OBP'ed less than .350 in the minor leagues until his injury-plagued season in 2009. In a season split between Double-A and Triple-A in 2007, Lowrie OBP'ed .393 and slugged .503 -- his 47 doubles in fewer than 600 plate appearances a remarkable feat.

(For the sake of comparison, Dustin Pedroia hit 48 doubles for the Red Sox this season but needed 714 plate appearances to do it.)

Two injury-plagued seasons aren't enough for the Red Sox to give up on Jed Lowrie. He might never hit 20 home runs in a season, but he's capable of 40 or 50 doubles a season to go along with steady defense at the infield's most important position.

The Red Sox still might try to bring Gonzalez back at a lower number to provide a little insurance. But if they deemed him critical to the team's success, they'd have picked up his $6 million option -- a relative pittance for a team with a $100 million payroll and World Series aspirations.

Actions speak louder than words. The Red Sox still believe they're a better team with Lowrie at shortstop than with Gonzalez or Hardy -- or just about any of their other options.

Red Sox defense still an issue in some ways

It's hard to pinpoint a significant weakness on this Red Sox team. The starting pitching is tremendous. The bullpen is tremendous. The lineup is deep -- and tremendous, particularly since the acquisition of Victor Martinez.

The team's biggest weakness, in a lot of ways, might be its defense. That's not to say that the defense is bad, per se, but back in mid-May, the Red Sox certainly weren't giving their pitchers much in the way of help. (The link will take you to a snapshot in mid-May of where the Red Sox stood on the Ultimate Zone Rating and Fielding Bible Plus-Minus leaderboards.)

As the season winds to a close, though, it might be a good idea to check back and see how the Red Sox fared in some of the advanced statistical measures. (We'll use UZR/150 -- averaging the numbers across 150 games -- rather than straight UZR because rate stats, as we've discussed, give a better sense than counting stats. Plus-minus is a counting stat.)

First base
UZR/150
1. Travis Ishikawa, plus-13.5
2. Casey Kotchman, 7.5
3. Kevin Youkilis, 7.1
Plus-minus
1. Albert Pujols, plus-15
t-2. Kevin Youkilis, plus-14

(In the ongoing "Kevin Youkilis ought to be the MVP runner-up behind Joe Mauer" debate, his ability to deliver terrific defense at first base and adequate defense at third base ought to be a big, big pactor.)

Second base
UZR/150
1. Ben Zobrist, plus-24.1
2. Dustin Pedroia, 9.1
(Yes, the gap is that wide.)
Plus-minus
1. Ian Kinsler and Ben Zobrist, plus-23
t-5. Dustin Pedroia, plus-12

(Pedroia might not buy into advanced defensive statistics, but they sure do reflect well upon him.)

Third base
UZR/150
1. Ryan Zimmerman, plus-16
29. Mike Lowell, minus-10.2
Plus-minus
1. Chone Figgins, plus-41
35. Mike Lowell, minus-23

(Were you expecting anything else?)

Shortstop
UZR/150
1. Jack Wilson, plus-15.2
6. Alex Gonzalez, plus-7.0
10. Nick Green, plus-5.3
Plus-minus
1. Jack Wilson, plus-32
19. Nick Green, plus-1
27. Alex Gonzalez, minus-5

(There's a discrepancy between the two interpretations of Gonzalez's defense. There's no such discrepancy below.)

Left field
UZR/150
1. Juan Rivera, plus-14.2
12. Jason Bay, minus-8.0
Plus-minus
1. Carl Crawford, plus-32
26. Jason Bay, minus-9

(That's still not good, but it's certainly better than you saw from Bay earlier in the year. The Fielding Bible has him at minus-14 on deep fly balls but plus-6 on medium-range fly balls.)

Center field
UZR/150
1. Franklin Gutierrez, plus-19.2
26. Jacoby Ellsbury, minus-12.6
Plus-minus
1. Franklin Gutierrez, plus-42
29. Jacoby Ellsbury, minus-8

(The Fielding Bible has Ellsbury at minus-12 on shallow fly balls -- which actually should seem about right to anyone who's seen the way he reads shallow fly balls off the bat.)

Right field
UZR/150
1. Ryan Sweeney, plus-20.5
8. J.D. Drew, plus-9.7
Plus-minus
1. Ichiro Suzuki, plus-22
t-10. J.D. Drew, plus-11

(As much as Drew doesn't get credit for his contributions at the plate, he really doesn't get credit for his contributions in one of the biggest right fields in baseball.)

As a team, for the season, the Red Sox rank 17th in the major leagues with an UZR/150 of minus-2.3.

It's not as abysmal as it was earlier in the season. Nick Green saw improvement as the year progressed, and replacing Julio Lugo with Alex Gonzalez certainly helped. Playing Mike Lowell at third base less has helped as well -- in infield with Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia and Casey Kotchman is actually a pretty impressive defensive infield.

But while J.D. Drew continues to be an above-average defensive outfielder, both Jason Bay and Jacoby Ellsbury continue to receive low marks. Fortunately for the Red Sox, neither this park nor this park feature the type of cavernous left-center field gap that could cause problems.

Three shortstops lift Red Sox to win

One shortstop has missed most of the year with a wrist injury he can't shake. One shortstop could barely swing thanks to a right leg that almost collapsed under him. One shortstop wasn't brought to town for anything beyond his defense.

Sensational at-bats from all three in the bottom of Wednesday's ninth inning lifted the Red Sox to one of their wildest wins of the season.

1. Jed Lowrie
"Selectively."

That's the word Red Sox manager Terry Francona said last week when asked how he expected to use Lowrie, his Opening Day shortstop and a player who has fought through as many setbacks as the Red Sox have gone through replacements. Lowrie began the season with the Red Sox but underwent wrist surgery in late April to resolve an issue that wasn't allowing him to swing the way he wanted to swing. Numbness in his wrist cut short a return in July, and further numbness sidelined him during a rehab stint at Triple-A Pawtucket.

His return to the major-league roster seemed almost a formality, a chance to reward him for his hard work with a pat on the back and a front-row seat for the stretch run. If the right situation presented itself, well, maybe he'd get an at-bat. You know: "Selectively."

It was a heck of a situation to select.

"I realized the situation, and I know what's going on," he said. "It's hard not to recognize that when everyone at Fenway is on their feet. You'd be a robot if you didn't recognize that. But once you get in the box, it goes back to, 'Let's get the job done.'"

Catcher Dusty Brown wasn't going to hit, not when he's only on the 40-man roster as insurance behind the team's two primary catchers. Lowrie has hit lefties far better than righties in his short major-league career, and with lefty closer Brian Fuentes on the mound, the timing seemed right.

"We wanted to get him in a situation where he hit righthanded," Francona said. "They get to Fuentes, so we know they're staying with him."

Lowrie, then, strode to the plate for the first time since Aug. 4 -- and for the first time in a truly meaningful spot since his single through the right side eliminated the Angels from last season's playoffs.

It didn't take long for the deja vu: He jumped on a breaking ball, just like he did last year, and he ripped a worm-burner through the infield, just like he did last year.

But Angels third baseman Chone Figgins dove and got a piece of his glove on the ball to knock it down deep behind third base. All three runners advanced easily, but the acrobatic effort from Figgins prevented a run from scoring and brought the next hitter to the plate.

2. Nick Green
"I was battling for my life," the journeyman shortstop said in an otherwise empty clubhouse late Wednesday night, the divider between his locker and Dustin Pedroia's locker supporting his weight. "I seriously did not think I could get a hit."

It's the simplest thing in the world for a hitter to do upon drawing a walk to toss the bat aside and jog to first base. But Nick Green could hardly do that. A right leg that's bothered him over the last couple of days almost collapsed underneath him while he was flailing at pitches up in the zone from Angels closer Brian Fuentes.

The problem dates back a couple of days. Green can't pinpoint any incident as the source of his injury, but he's felt soreness and weakness in his right leg since the series against the Angels began. It just didn't seem so bad because he wasn't playing in games.

He didn't tell anyone about the soreness. He didn't think it was a big deal. He even hit off a tee in the middle innings just in case he needed to pinch-hit. Headed into the bottom of the ninth, he considered taking a few more swings but decided against it.

He then came to the plate to pinch-hit for lefty Casey Kotchman with the bases loaded and two outs, the Red Sox still trailing by a run.

His first swing wasn't pretty. His second swing was worse.

"I don't think I even could have put the ball in play," said Green, whose playing time has almost evaporated since the arrival of Alex Gonzalez. "Go look at the replay. Go look at all the swings. ... I couldn't really swing."

When he checked his swing on a fastball up at his eyes, he almost fell down, and that only made it worse.

(The irony there is that Lowrie twice aggravated his wrist injury by checking his swing, setbacks that prolonged his absence by close to a month.)

Green still somehow managed to foul off three straight pitches after that. Two were out of the strike zone, but one was right in his wheelhouse.

"There is no reason I shouldn't put one of those balls in play," he said.

The ninth pitch of the at-bat, though, is the one Fuentes and the Angels won't forget. A hurting Green stood with his bat on his shoulder and watched a 91-mile-an-hour fastball cut the plate right in half.

Umpire Rick Reed stood still. Ball four.

"It's a good umpiring crew, and I think we really feel strongly they missed a couple of times we had Green struck out," Angels manager Mike Scioscia said. "That's the focal point of the game, and it didn't go our way."

Said Green, "I thought it was low, and apparently (Reed) did, too."

He then had to drag himself to first base, something that took more effort than anyone in the ballpark understood at the time.

"I almost collapsed every single swing," he said, "and I almost collapsed walking down to first and almost collapsed when I was leading off."

The call might have been wrong -- replays seemed to indicate that the pitch was right down the middle of the plate -- but the normally free-swinging Green still put up a hellacious battle on one leg. It's not easy to draw a walk when you don't get many chances to swing the bat.

"I told Greenie I had a boatload of possible scenarios for his (at-bat)," left fielder Jason Bay said, "and walking wasn't one of them. It's just a testament to him. You don't play that much, and you go up there and you want to do too much. You want to try to win the ballgame. To try to do what he did is even tougher than it looks."

3. Alex Gonzalez
The Red Sox acquired Gonzalez for his glove, plain and simple. Any base hit he mustered would be a bonus. All they needed for him to do was to make every play at shortstop, to make the plays Green and Julio Lugo hadn't made that had cost the Red Sox runs and wins.

Entering play Wednesday, Gonzalez was hitting .287 and had 11 RBI in his first 27 games with the Red Sox. His defense, though, still is what keeps him in the lineup every day.

"What he does out at short, there's not many in the game who can match what he does out there," catcher Jason Varitek said. "That's still a level of importance. But he's come up with some big hits for us."

Said Lowrie, "He's done an amazing job with the bat."

Gonzalez might not have hit for himself if Terry Francona had anyone else available. But with Francona down to fourth catcher George Kottaras, he had no choice but to send his defensive specialist to the plate in the biggest spot of the game.

Gonzalez had provided one encouraging sign in his previous at-bat: He'd walked. He'd gone 99 plate appearances with the Red Sox to that point without managing to draw a walk -- a phenomenal accomplishment particularly when you consider how much the Red Sox stress plate discipline in their hitters. David Ortiz walked more times in Wednesday's game alone than Gonzalez had in his first 27 games with the Red Sox.

But he fought off a couple of breaking balls -- "They were throwing me a lot of breaking balls," he said -- and took ball four when a Darren Oliver fastball ran so far in on him even he couldn't think about taking a swing at it.

"I think I got the ball and the base," he said with a grin.

Fuentes started him in the ninth inning with a fastball (foul ball), a slider (low for a ball) and a fastball (foul ball). He couldn't have been more sure a breaking ball was coming even if catcher Mike Napoli had whispered to him Crash Davis-style.

"I know it's coming," he said. "They've been throwing me a lot of breaking balls last night and tonight."

It wasn't quite a breaking ball: It was a changeup down at the knees. But Gonzalez got under it and lofted it gently into short left field. Left fielder Juan Rivera might have had a chance at it but chose not to dive, and the collision of ball and grass set off a wild celebration.

"When I hit it, I hit it like he throw it: I hit it just soft enough," Gonzalez said. "I don't hit it good, but I hit it in the right spot."