Lowell leaves Red Sox thin up the middle

CSNNE.com's Sean McAdam reported this week that Mike Lowell likely will open the season with the Red Sox and likely will not be traded during spring training. It makes sense: With so many free agents signing for bargain-basement prices, there's no need for a team to part with prospects for a question mark like Lowell. If Russell Branyan had to settle for a $2 million deal, why would another team assume anything but a fraction of the money owed Lowell?

Should Lowell stick around, the Red Sox bench would seem to be set in stone before exhibition games even begin. Jason Varitek will be the backup catcher. Lowell will back up the two infield corners. Jeremy Hermida will back up the two outfield corners. Bill Hall will back up everywhere else.

But that leaves the Red Sox awfully thin in the middle infield. Hall was acquired as a jack-of-all-trades utility guy. Here's the problem: He last played shortstop in the major leagues four years ago, and he last saw even semi-regular playing time at second base five years ago. He's spent the last three seasons almost exclusively as a third baseman and as an outfielder.

This leaves Hall as an adequate in-game replacement for Dustin Pedroia or Marco Scutaro in the event of a fluke injury like a foul ball off the shin. At the other end of the spectrum, should either Pedroia or Scutaro suffer any sort of long-term injury, Tug Hulett or Jed Lowrie could be called up from Triple-A Pawtucket and jump into the starting lineup.

It's in the middle that things start to get hazy. What happens if Pedroia sprains an ankle and is sidelined for four games? What happens if Scutaro gets the flu and is laid up for a week?

Should either middle infielder suffer an injury that's not quite severe enough to land him on the 15-day disabled list -- and the Red Sox aren't going to deactivate Pedroia for 15 days if he's expected to be back in 10 -- Hall would have to play second base or shortstop every day for a week. He hasn't done that since 2006.

For a team banking its fortune on being able to catch the ball, being so thin at two key defensive positions seems unnecessarily precarious.

How often should Ortiz play?

"David's a big -- I don't want to say question mark because he's not a question mark, but when David hits, we're different. Same thing when he doesn't hit. When you have a guy who is a full-time DH, he has to hit.'' -- Red Sox manager Terry Francona

Talk about disparate numbers: Here's David Ortiz before and after the All-Star break last season, the most difficult season of his Red Sox career:

Before: .733 OPS
After: .866 OPS

Talk about disparate numbers: Here's David Ortiz against lefthanded pitching and against righthanded pitching last season:

LHP: .716 OPS
RHP: .828 OPS

Against lefties, in other words, he was his first-half self. Against righties, he was his second-half self -- a well above-average hitter capable of hitting in the middle of the Red Sox lineup.

The question begs itself: At what point do the Red Sox start considering playing Ortiz only against righthanded pitchers and sitting him against lefties?

The answer: When a better option presents itself.

The Red Sox have brought righty Bill Hall and lefty Jeremy Hermida on board to provide a little thump off the bench, and righty Mike Lowell -- if he's not traded, anyway -- and switch-hitter Jason Varitek remain options as well.

Terry Francona will have plenty of choices as he makes out his lineups against both righties and lefties this season:

Against righthanded pitching
Hall: .589 last season/.725 career
Hermida: .786 last season/.792 career
Lowell: .784 last season/.798 career
Ortiz: .828 last season/.964 career
Varitek: .666 last season/.759 career

Best option: Ortiz. That seems clear.

Against lefthanded pitching
Hall: .606 last season/.810 career
Hermida: .601 last season/.697 career
Lowell: .867 last season/.850 career
Ortiz: .716 last season/.819 career
Varitek: .807 last season/.828 career

Best option: Lowell. That seems clear, too.

If Lowell is traded, though: Would you believe it's Varitek?

If the goal is to keep Victor Martinez as fresh as possible, it might make sense for him to play first base or serve as designated hitter against lefties as often as possible. If Varitek plays exclusively against lefties, it would mean Ortiz probably would sit against most lefties.

If last season's numbers are to believed, though, replacing Ortiz with Varitek against lefthanded pitchers, either as the catcher with Martinez DH'ing or as the DH himself, would mean a significant upgrade at the plate.

Epstein optimistic about Hall turnaround

For as much weight as Theo Epstein puts in statistics, he's not about to dismiss the bat of acquisition Bill Hall just because his production has declined in each of the last three seasons.

Even if Hall doesn't hit 30 home runs -- or, for that matter, 10 home runs -- he brings something to the table that Epstein values highly.

"Bill Hall is someone who, for us, provides tremendous versatility and some pop from the right side," Epstein said after introducing third baseman Adrian Beltre at a press conference on Friday. "We've been looking for years now for someone who can play solid defense at a number of positions -- including in the outfield and in the infield. We think Bill Hall represents that for us. He's really pretty good wherever you put him on the field."

If the Red Sox go with 12 pitchers on their staff -- something they've done just about every year even if it isn't necessarily their preference -- that leaves them with four bats off the bench:

1. Backup catcher (Jason Varitek)
2. Utility infielder (Tug Hulett or Jed Lowrie)
3. Fourth outfielder (Jeremy Hermida)
4. Catch-all reserve (Hall)

The Red Sox a year ago had a fourth outfielder (Rocco Baldelli) as well as a fifth outfielder with the ability to play first base (Mark Kotsay). That, though, left the Red Sox with only one reserve with the ability to play second base or shortstop -- and even that counted on the ability of Kevin Youkilis to play both infield corners.

In this case, though, Hall can spell J.D. Drew against tough lefties -- something Hermida isn't necessarily going to do given that he swings from the left side -- and also play shortstop or third base if the injury bug strikes the Red Sox infield.

The issue, again, is the fact that Hall has seen his OPS tumble from .899 four seasons ago to .598 last season. His OPS+ of 58 last season would have been worst in the major leagues if he'd had enough at-bats to qualify.

Epstein declined to speculate about the reason for the decline.

"There are different theories out there, but I don't want to pick the guy apart before we even have him," he said. "Let's get to spring training and let him work with (hitting coach) Dave Magadan, who's a fan of Billy Hall's, and see what kind of work they can do together. I know Billy is working hard looking for answers himself. ...

"He's pretty darned good at moving all over the field. He's got natural defensive abilities -- athleticism, good hands and a strong arm. If we can get the bat back on track and get him enough playing time to get the bat back on track, which I think is important, you're looking at a pretty valuable player."

Where does Bill Hall fit? Everywhere

The Red Sox's acquisition of Bill Hall from the Seattle Mariners wasn't just a move to relieve them of the luxury tax associated with Adrian Beltre. Seattle is sending enough money along with Hall to pay not only his contract but a piece of Beltre's contract as well, edging the Red Sox back toward the $170 million threshold at which they have to pay luxury tax.

That helps. What also helps, though, is the ability of Hall to play competent defense at almost every position on the diamond -- and to do so while swinging a righthanded bat.

Make no mistake: Barring a dramatic turnaround, Hall will not produce much at the plate. Consider his OPSes since his 35-home run season four years ago:

2006: .899
2007: .740
2008: .689
2009: .596

When you consider that the average American League hitter compiled an OPS of .764 last year, well, you're not going to have high expectations of Hall.

Mark Kotsay, however, puts those numbers into context.

Kotsay spent the first half of last season as the versatile bat off the bench, the veteran able to play first base as well as all three outfield positions. He OPS'ed .615 in the process -- in other words, not significantly better than Hall -- but gave the Red Sox a chance to rest Kevin Youkilis and all three of their outfielders during long road trips or in day games after night games.

Hall is even more versatile than Kotsay:

(UZR/150 numbers by position)
2B (91 starts): minus-1.9
3B (215 starts): plus-5.7
SS (244 starts): plus-1.6
OF (153 starts): plus-4.6 (including plus-6.3 in CF)

The Red Sox don't need a backup outfielder who hits .300 with 20 home runs. To get someone like that -- a Fernando Tatis, for example -- they'd have to pony up money they aren't going to spend.

(Besides, that's where Jeremy Hermida comes in: Hermida has the ability, if not the track record, to provide some punch in the lineup when Mike Cameron, J.D. Drew or Jacoby Ellsbury is taking a day off.)

Hall is bought and paid for -- and then some -- thanks to the Kotchman deal. He also can spell pretty much everyone. Youkilis appears to be the only real exception -- and Youkilis won't need much time off barring an injury or another beef with Rick Porcello. Even when he does, it'll be a day when Jason Varitek catches and Victor Martinez moves to first base.

If Youkilis lands on the disabled list the way he did early last season, Hall isn't going to be any worse than the since-departed Jeff Bailey and Chris Carter. Aaron Bates will remain an option at Pawtucket. Lars Anderson and Anthony Rizzo might be ready for their cups of coffee by the middle of the year.

Every other position appears set:

C: Martinez (Varitek)
1B: Youkilis (Martinez)
2B: Pedroia (Hall, Hullett/Lowrie)
3B: Beltre (Hall, Hullett/Lowrie, Lowell, Scutaro)
SS: Scutaro (Hall, Hullett/Lowrie)
LF: Ellsbury (Cameron, Hermida)
CF: Cameron (Ellsbury, Hall)
RF: Drew (Hall, Hermida)
DH: Ortiz (Hermida, Lowell)

If Lowell is traded, the Red Sox would be able to open the season with 12 pitchers and not lose too much in the way of depth.

Make no mistake: Hall isn't going to hit 30 home runs. Hall might not even hit 10 home runs. He's going to swing and miss quite a bit and get himself out quite a bit. If the Red Sox have to play him for long stretches, he's not going to do much to contribute at the plate.

That, though, isn't a disaster unless he has to play every day for a long period of time. Bailey came to the plate 91 times for the Red Sox last season, and Kotsay came to the plate 79 times. If Hall gets much more than 150 plate appearances for the Red Sox, there's probably an issue.

But if he plays twice a week and hits eighth or ninth in the Red Sox batting order, that's OK. All he needs to do is field his position well enough that Terry Francona can give his lefthanded regulars some days off.