Should the Red Sox decide to move Dustin Pedroia out of his customary No. 2 spot to make room for Marco Scutaro, they'll have to make a decision: Either Victor Martinez or Dustin Pedroia will have to hit in the No. 3 spot with the other bumping down to No. 5. Reports out of Fort Myers had Pedroia ready and willing to hit fifth, but that should be far from a foregone conclusion.
A team typically should slot its best hitter in the No. 3 spot in its batting order. Who's the best hitter the Red Sox have?
Well, actually, that's a trick question. Kevin Youkilis is the best hitter in the Red Sox lineup -- and one of the best hitters in the American League. But because Youkilis hits for more power than either Martinez or Pedroia, he's a natural fit in the No. 4 spot in the batting order.
J.D. Drew, too, ought to be a candidate to hit in the No. 3 spot. He was one of just six players in the American League last season -- Youkilis, Miguel Cabrera, Joe Mauer, Alex Rodriguez and Ben Zobrist were the others -- to compile an on-base percentage of better than .390 and a slugging percentage of better than .500. On a rate basis, he's one of the elite hitters in the American League.
But if the Red Sox didn't hit Drew in the No. 3 spot after David Ortiz was bumped down to the bottom half of the lineup -- that duty fell to Youkilis, with Bay hitting cleanup -- they're probably not going to do so this season.
(Hitting Drew in the No. 3 spot would be the best way for Theo Epstein and Terry Francona to shut up all the "Drew sucks because he hits eighth!" voices, but it's a credit to both that shutting up their detractors is not among their priorities.)
That leaves Martinez and Pedroia -- and that means it's time for a side-by-side comparison:
2009 slash lines
Martinez: .303/.381/.480 (.861 OPS)
Pedroia: .296/.371/.447 (.819 OPS)
Career slash lines
Martinez: .299/.372/.465 (.837 OPS)
Pedroia: .307/.370/.455 (.825 OPS)
Walk rate
Martinez: 11.2 percent
Pedroia: 10.4 percent
Isolated power (ISO)
Martinez: .177
Pedroia: .152
Line-drive rate
Martinez: 21 percent
Pedroia: 18 percent
What does this tell you?
Well, Martinez has better numbers than Pedroia across the board -- not by much of a margin, but, still, better numbers across the board. Martinez probably should hit in the No. 3 hole in the Red Sox lineup -- and this might mean that Pedroia still might be the best fit at No. 2, since dropping him all the way down to No. 5 might be a waste of his on-base skills.
But it's fascinating that this Red Sox team, one whose lineup has caused so much consternation, has options like this.
Showing posts with label martinez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label martinez. Show all posts
Friday, February 26, 2010
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
The value of Victor Martinez
With rumors on a contract extension for Joe Mauer flying around, it appears more and more likely that the Twins will sign their franchise catcher to a contract extension before he hits the free-agent market.
That would leave Victor Martinez as the best catcher available in an otherwise weak class of catchers whose contracts will expire after the 2010 season. For teams losing catchers in the near future -- and the Yankees and Red Sox both are in that category -- the switch-hitting Martinez could be a prize worth fighting over.
His last four seasons:
2006: .316/.391/.465 (.856)
2007: .301/.374/.505 (.879)
2008: .278/.337/.365 (.701)
2009: .303/.381/.480 (.861)
If you drop the one outlier, Martinez has demonstrated that he's a perennial threat to get on base at a clip of .375 or better and to slug .475 or better. He's a terrific hitter. The number of teams inquiring about his services will reflect that.
His value, though, will depend on the position he's playing. His value will drop precipitously if he's more of a first baseman than a catcher going forward.
Consider again the last four seasons:
2006: 127 starts at C/19 starts at 1B
2007: 118 starts at C/24 starts at 1B
2008: 54 starts at C/9 starts at 1B
2009: 82 starts at C/66 starts at 1B
A year after an elbow injury cost him most of June, July and August, Martinez saw a dramatic upturn in his time at first base. He made almost as many starts at first base in his two months in Boston (22) as he had any any full season to that point.
His 30th birthday is in his rear-view mirror. His days of catching 100-plus games probably are over.
Theo Epstein made clear at the start of the offseason that Martinez will assume the bulk of the catching duties next season. The older Martinez gets, though, the more time he'll spend at first base to diminish the injury risk while keeping his bat in the lineup. For the Red Sox, the development of Luis Exposito, Tim Federowicz and Mark Wagner makes Martinez even less likely to catch every day in 2011 and 2012.
Once the contract of David Ortiz expires, Martinez even could play 40 or 50 games as the designated hitter to minimize wear and tear on his body.
The less he plays catcher, though, the less valuable he becomes. His OPS last season (.856) ranked him second in the major leagues among catchers. Among all players, though, he ranked 47th -- behind, among others, Nick Swisher, Russell Branyan and Michael Cuddyer.
He's an elite hitter as a catcher. He's actually a pretty average hitter as a first baseman. Finding a good-hitting catcher is simply more difficult than finding a good-hitting first baseman -- and the Wins Above Replacement statistic makes that clear in each of Martinez's big seasons at the plate:
2006
Martinez, C (.856 OPS): 4.9 WAR
Justin Morneau, 1B (.934 OPS): 4.4 WAR
Carlos Delgado, 1B (.909 OPS): 2.9 WAR
Todd Helton, 1B (.880 OPS): 2.4 WAR
2007
Martinez, C (.879 OPS): 5.2 WAR
Prince Fielder, 1B (1.013 OPS): 5.1 WAR
Ryan Howard, 1B (.976 OPS): 4.3 WAR
Mark Teixeira, 1B (.963 OPS): 3.9 WAR
(2008 was something of a wasted season for Martinez. so we'll ignore that here.)
2009
Martinez, C/1B (.861 OPS): 4.9 WAR
Ryan Howard, 1B (.931 OPS): 4.8 WAR
Kendry Morales, 1B (.924 OPS): 4.2 WAR
Justin Morneau, 1B (.878 OPS): 3.2 WAR
What does that tell you? Moving from catcher to first base, in terms of value, is about the same as a 100-point drop in OPS. A contract for a catcher with an OPS of .850 should look a lot different than a contract for a first baseman with an OPS of .850.
If Martinez is willing to play for $10 or $12 million a season, the Red Sox should lock him up for the next three or four years. If another team offers Martinez anything close to Mauer money -- or even anything close to Matt Holliday money -- the Red Sox probably will be better off letting him walk.
That would leave Victor Martinez as the best catcher available in an otherwise weak class of catchers whose contracts will expire after the 2010 season. For teams losing catchers in the near future -- and the Yankees and Red Sox both are in that category -- the switch-hitting Martinez could be a prize worth fighting over.
His last four seasons:
2006: .316/.391/.465 (.856)
2007: .301/.374/.505 (.879)
2008: .278/.337/.365 (.701)
2009: .303/.381/.480 (.861)
If you drop the one outlier, Martinez has demonstrated that he's a perennial threat to get on base at a clip of .375 or better and to slug .475 or better. He's a terrific hitter. The number of teams inquiring about his services will reflect that.
His value, though, will depend on the position he's playing. His value will drop precipitously if he's more of a first baseman than a catcher going forward.
Consider again the last four seasons:
2006: 127 starts at C/19 starts at 1B
2007: 118 starts at C/24 starts at 1B
2008: 54 starts at C/9 starts at 1B
2009: 82 starts at C/66 starts at 1B
A year after an elbow injury cost him most of June, July and August, Martinez saw a dramatic upturn in his time at first base. He made almost as many starts at first base in his two months in Boston (22) as he had any any full season to that point.
His 30th birthday is in his rear-view mirror. His days of catching 100-plus games probably are over.
Theo Epstein made clear at the start of the offseason that Martinez will assume the bulk of the catching duties next season. The older Martinez gets, though, the more time he'll spend at first base to diminish the injury risk while keeping his bat in the lineup. For the Red Sox, the development of Luis Exposito, Tim Federowicz and Mark Wagner makes Martinez even less likely to catch every day in 2011 and 2012.
Once the contract of David Ortiz expires, Martinez even could play 40 or 50 games as the designated hitter to minimize wear and tear on his body.
The less he plays catcher, though, the less valuable he becomes. His OPS last season (.856) ranked him second in the major leagues among catchers. Among all players, though, he ranked 47th -- behind, among others, Nick Swisher, Russell Branyan and Michael Cuddyer.
He's an elite hitter as a catcher. He's actually a pretty average hitter as a first baseman. Finding a good-hitting catcher is simply more difficult than finding a good-hitting first baseman -- and the Wins Above Replacement statistic makes that clear in each of Martinez's big seasons at the plate:
2006
Martinez, C (.856 OPS): 4.9 WAR
Justin Morneau, 1B (.934 OPS): 4.4 WAR
Carlos Delgado, 1B (.909 OPS): 2.9 WAR
Todd Helton, 1B (.880 OPS): 2.4 WAR
2007
Martinez, C (.879 OPS): 5.2 WAR
Prince Fielder, 1B (1.013 OPS): 5.1 WAR
Ryan Howard, 1B (.976 OPS): 4.3 WAR
Mark Teixeira, 1B (.963 OPS): 3.9 WAR
(2008 was something of a wasted season for Martinez. so we'll ignore that here.)
2009
Martinez, C/1B (.861 OPS): 4.9 WAR
Ryan Howard, 1B (.931 OPS): 4.8 WAR
Kendry Morales, 1B (.924 OPS): 4.2 WAR
Justin Morneau, 1B (.878 OPS): 3.2 WAR
What does that tell you? Moving from catcher to first base, in terms of value, is about the same as a 100-point drop in OPS. A contract for a catcher with an OPS of .850 should look a lot different than a contract for a first baseman with an OPS of .850.
If Martinez is willing to play for $10 or $12 million a season, the Red Sox should lock him up for the next three or four years. If another team offers Martinez anything close to Mauer money -- or even anything close to Matt Holliday money -- the Red Sox probably will be better off letting him walk.
Monday, December 28, 2009
The upgrade of Victor over Varitek
The Red Sox need a bat, or so consensus has made clear. Even David Ortiz says so. Theo Epstein has swapped out Jason Bay and Alex Gonzalez for Mike Cameron and Marco Scutaro -- and, in a vacuum, those two moves don't represent an upgrade for an offense that managed just 15 hits in three games and hit .158 in bowing out meekly in the American League Division Series.
Two points:
1. Using three games -- any three games -- to determine offseason priorities is a mistake. Players endure slumps all the time. Teams endure slumps all the time. Executives have to build teams based on 162 games. Panicking based on a three-game skid is a great way to make mistakes. Heck, in the first three games of the World Series, the Yankees managed to hit just .224. They just happened to win two of those three games -- and, thus, no one cared.
2. Don't forget about Victor Martinez.
Yes, Martinez was part of the group that came up so short against the Angels. Yes, Martinez was a member of the Red Sox for the final two months of the season.
It seems, though, that the impact of having Martinez -- whose on-base percentage last season (.381) was well ahead of every catcher in the major leagues not named Joe Mauer -- starting every day in place of Jason Varitek has been overlooked.
Varitek played catcher almost every day until Aug. 1, coming to the plate 321 times and compiling an OPS of .794. Martinez played catcher almost every day from Aug. 2 on, coming to the plate 237 times and compiling an OPS of .912.
If you prefer advanced metrics, Varitek compiled a WAR -- wins above replacement -- of 1.3 in his full season with the Red Sox. (FanGraphs doesn't break down WAR on a month-by-month level for players who play for the same team all season.) Martinez compiled a WAR of 2.1 in just his two months with the Red Sox -- and 4.9 for the entire season.
The list of catchers who have accumulated a WAR of better than 4.9 in either of the last two seasons is a short one:
1. Joe Mauer (twice)
2. Brian McCann
That's it.
If you prefer traditional statistics, the upgrade still is clear:
* Varitek hit .209 last season, a career low, but he still hasn't hit above .255 in the last four years.
* Martinez hit .303 last season and hasn't hit below .280 in his career.
* Varitek OBP'ed .313 both last season and the season before that.
* Martinez OBP'ed .381 last season and has OBP'ed .370 or better in four of his last five seasons.
* Varitek slugged. 390 last season and hasn't slugged better than .425 in the last four years.
* Martinez slugged .480 last season and has slugged .465 or better in five of his last six seasons.
Varitek has come to the plate an avearge of 460 times per season since 2006 and accumulated an OPS+ of 85 -- in other words, production well below average -- in that span.
Martinez, instead, will get most of those at-bats next season -- and Martinez has an OPS+ of 121 since 2006.
For the sake of comparison, Jason Bay over the last four seasons has an OPS+ of 125. Mike Cameron has an OPS+ of 112. The difference between Martinez and Varitek is almost three times the difference between Bay and Cameron.
The Red Sox still might acquire a hitter. The depressed economic climate might give them no choice but to go back after Bay and hit him in the middle of their lineup -- or the Padres might start feeling generous and shop their power-hitting first baseman before the season starts.
Having Victor Martinez -- arguably the second-best-hitting catcher in the major leagues --behind the plate for a full season should not be underestimated.
Two points:
1. Using three games -- any three games -- to determine offseason priorities is a mistake. Players endure slumps all the time. Teams endure slumps all the time. Executives have to build teams based on 162 games. Panicking based on a three-game skid is a great way to make mistakes. Heck, in the first three games of the World Series, the Yankees managed to hit just .224. They just happened to win two of those three games -- and, thus, no one cared.
2. Don't forget about Victor Martinez.
Yes, Martinez was part of the group that came up so short against the Angels. Yes, Martinez was a member of the Red Sox for the final two months of the season.
It seems, though, that the impact of having Martinez -- whose on-base percentage last season (.381) was well ahead of every catcher in the major leagues not named Joe Mauer -- starting every day in place of Jason Varitek has been overlooked.
Varitek played catcher almost every day until Aug. 1, coming to the plate 321 times and compiling an OPS of .794. Martinez played catcher almost every day from Aug. 2 on, coming to the plate 237 times and compiling an OPS of .912.
If you prefer advanced metrics, Varitek compiled a WAR -- wins above replacement -- of 1.3 in his full season with the Red Sox. (FanGraphs doesn't break down WAR on a month-by-month level for players who play for the same team all season.) Martinez compiled a WAR of 2.1 in just his two months with the Red Sox -- and 4.9 for the entire season.
The list of catchers who have accumulated a WAR of better than 4.9 in either of the last two seasons is a short one:
1. Joe Mauer (twice)
2. Brian McCann
That's it.
If you prefer traditional statistics, the upgrade still is clear:
* Varitek hit .209 last season, a career low, but he still hasn't hit above .255 in the last four years.
* Martinez hit .303 last season and hasn't hit below .280 in his career.
* Varitek OBP'ed .313 both last season and the season before that.
* Martinez OBP'ed .381 last season and has OBP'ed .370 or better in four of his last five seasons.
* Varitek slugged. 390 last season and hasn't slugged better than .425 in the last four years.
* Martinez slugged .480 last season and has slugged .465 or better in five of his last six seasons.
Varitek has come to the plate an avearge of 460 times per season since 2006 and accumulated an OPS+ of 85 -- in other words, production well below average -- in that span.
Martinez, instead, will get most of those at-bats next season -- and Martinez has an OPS+ of 121 since 2006.
For the sake of comparison, Jason Bay over the last four seasons has an OPS+ of 125. Mike Cameron has an OPS+ of 112. The difference between Martinez and Varitek is almost three times the difference between Bay and Cameron.
The Red Sox still might acquire a hitter. The depressed economic climate might give them no choice but to go back after Bay and hit him in the middle of their lineup -- or the Padres might start feeling generous and shop their power-hitting first baseman before the season starts.
Having Victor Martinez -- arguably the second-best-hitting catcher in the major leagues --behind the plate for a full season should not be underestimated.
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Why the Red Sox shouldn't overreact
To take things a step further: Writers and radio talk-show hosts alike are starting to clamor for Theo Epstein to do something big this offseason because the Yankees are pulling away.
They're wrong.
In fact, it's pretty easy to demonstrate why the Red Sox already are vastly improved over the team they fielded on Opening Day last season -- a deal for Jason Bay or an adequate replacement notwithstanding.
Hold onto your hats: We're going to do this using the Wins Above Replacement statistic. The statistic itself is more complex than the NFL's quarterback rating, but here's the basic gist: It calculates how many runs a player produces at the plate and how many runs a player prevents in the field. You then compare this number to the number of runs an average player at that particular position would have produced and prevented.
Every 10 extra runs produced or prevented, people who are smarter than me have figured out, tends to turn into one extra win -- hence Wins Above Replacement. Voila.
The beauty of WAR is that it's cumulative. A guy who hits .300 and play 100 games is less valuable than a guy who hits .300 and plays 120 games. A relief pitcher with a 2.00 ERA in 70 innings is less valuable than a starting pitcher with a 4.00 ERA in 200 innings. (Really. We can go over it if you'd like.)
It's tough to quantify with other statistics just how significant it is that the Red Sox go from four months of Jason Varitek and two months of Victor Martinez to six months of Martinez. But because WAR is cumulative, we actually can add up four months of Varitek and two months of Martinez and add them together and compare them to six months of Martinez.
(This is, of course, all based on last season's numbers. But no one other than maybe Marco Scutaro seemed to have a career year and is due for a precipitous fall, and no one -- I'm looking at you, David Ortiz -- seems all that likely to have a huge bounce-back year that would skew the numbers dramatically.)
Catcher
2009, Varitek/Martinez: 2.4
(To do this, you have to take two-thirds of Varitek's 2009 WAR total and add it to one-third of Martinez's 2009 WAR total since he only played in Boston in August and September.)
2010, Martinez: 4.9
First base
Second base
Third base
All constants. If the Red Sox replace Mike Lowell with Adrian Beltre, that's an upgrade from 1.2 WAR to 2.4 WAR based mostly on the defense of the two respective players.
Shortstop
2009, Nick Green/Alex Gonzalez: 0.6
(The formula here is Green for four months plus Gonzalez for two months. This actually is even more generous than it appears because Julio Lugo managed a negative WAR in his tenure in Boston before he was designated for assignment.)
2010, Scutaro: 4.5
(Need another reminder why Scutaro is such an important pickup for the Red Sox? Even if he regresses to his numbers from two seasons ago, he's still at 2.7 and a two-win upgrade over the Green/Gonzalez duo of a year ago.)
Right field
Center field
Both constants.
Left field
2009, Jason Bay: 3.1
2010, Who knows?
Victor Martinez for an entire season in place of Victor Martinez for one-third of a season is a monster upgrade. Scutaro in place of Nick Green is another monster upgrade. That's the case -- and we can't emphasize this enough -- even if he regresses. Those two moves alone are worth at least five wins to the Red Sox.
If the Red Sox lose Bay, they'll need to make a move to replace him.
(It seems increasingly unlikely they'll lose Bay, by the way. The Angels have said they're out. The Mariners and their defense-first philosophy don't seem to be a fit. The Yankees always are lurking, but they've also made noise about keeping their payroll within reason. Who else is there? He ain't going back to Pittsburgh.)
If they do bring back Bay, there's no reason to go out and do something silly just because the Yankees made a trade for a center fielder.
They're wrong.
In fact, it's pretty easy to demonstrate why the Red Sox already are vastly improved over the team they fielded on Opening Day last season -- a deal for Jason Bay or an adequate replacement notwithstanding.
Hold onto your hats: We're going to do this using the Wins Above Replacement statistic. The statistic itself is more complex than the NFL's quarterback rating, but here's the basic gist: It calculates how many runs a player produces at the plate and how many runs a player prevents in the field. You then compare this number to the number of runs an average player at that particular position would have produced and prevented.
Every 10 extra runs produced or prevented, people who are smarter than me have figured out, tends to turn into one extra win -- hence Wins Above Replacement. Voila.
The beauty of WAR is that it's cumulative. A guy who hits .300 and play 100 games is less valuable than a guy who hits .300 and plays 120 games. A relief pitcher with a 2.00 ERA in 70 innings is less valuable than a starting pitcher with a 4.00 ERA in 200 innings. (Really. We can go over it if you'd like.)
It's tough to quantify with other statistics just how significant it is that the Red Sox go from four months of Jason Varitek and two months of Victor Martinez to six months of Martinez. But because WAR is cumulative, we actually can add up four months of Varitek and two months of Martinez and add them together and compare them to six months of Martinez.
(This is, of course, all based on last season's numbers. But no one other than maybe Marco Scutaro seemed to have a career year and is due for a precipitous fall, and no one -- I'm looking at you, David Ortiz -- seems all that likely to have a huge bounce-back year that would skew the numbers dramatically.)
Catcher
2009, Varitek/Martinez: 2.4
(To do this, you have to take two-thirds of Varitek's 2009 WAR total and add it to one-third of Martinez's 2009 WAR total since he only played in Boston in August and September.)
2010, Martinez: 4.9
First base
Second base
Third base
All constants. If the Red Sox replace Mike Lowell with Adrian Beltre, that's an upgrade from 1.2 WAR to 2.4 WAR based mostly on the defense of the two respective players.
Shortstop
2009, Nick Green/Alex Gonzalez: 0.6
(The formula here is Green for four months plus Gonzalez for two months. This actually is even more generous than it appears because Julio Lugo managed a negative WAR in his tenure in Boston before he was designated for assignment.)
2010, Scutaro: 4.5
(Need another reminder why Scutaro is such an important pickup for the Red Sox? Even if he regresses to his numbers from two seasons ago, he's still at 2.7 and a two-win upgrade over the Green/Gonzalez duo of a year ago.)
Right field
Center field
Both constants.
Left field
2009, Jason Bay: 3.1
2010, Who knows?
Victor Martinez for an entire season in place of Victor Martinez for one-third of a season is a monster upgrade. Scutaro in place of Nick Green is another monster upgrade. That's the case -- and we can't emphasize this enough -- even if he regresses. Those two moves alone are worth at least five wins to the Red Sox.
If the Red Sox lose Bay, they'll need to make a move to replace him.
(It seems increasingly unlikely they'll lose Bay, by the way. The Angels have said they're out. The Mariners and their defense-first philosophy don't seem to be a fit. The Yankees always are lurking, but they've also made noise about keeping their payroll within reason. Who else is there? He ain't going back to Pittsburgh.)
If they do bring back Bay, there's no reason to go out and do something silly just because the Yankees made a trade for a center fielder.
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Martinez or Varitek: Game 1 catcher?
Many believed Red Sox manager Terry Francona wouldn't have the guts to make Jason Varitek his second-string catcher. It's not easy -- no matter how convincing the statistics might make the case -- to meet with your captain, your leader, your rock, your catcher on two World Series title teams, and tell him, in so many words, "We're a better team when you don't play."
Francona has always seen his players as more than run producers, as more than batting averages and on-base percentages and strikeout rates. He's always seen his job as manager as more than writing in the lineup card and putting on the hit and run. He's always believed the way he does what's best for his players is the only way to get his players to do what's best for the team.
Look at the way Francona handled the early-season slump of David Ortiz. While fans and writers and radio voices alike all screamed for Ortiz to ride the pine, Francona stuck with him and stuck with him and stuck with him.
"He’s going to get hot,” Francona said in late May. "How hot? I can’t wait to find out. But when he does, that’s why being patient is really the only thing to do. If I’m wrong, I take responsibility. I just think it’s the right thing for us to do."
It wasn't because Francona believed Ortiz was going to look once again like the hitter he'd been two or three years ago when he hit 45 or 50 home runs and OPS'ed well over 1.000. It was because Francona believed Ortiz was better than the hitter who was OPS'ing less than .600 into early June. It was because Francona believed he could get more out of Ortiz by sticking with him than by kicking him to the curb.
Ortiz still isn't the old Ortiz. But he's worked his OPS back up to .767 -- eight points above the average OPS in the American League -- and has hit 24 home runs, the same number as Matt Holliday and more than Victor Martinez, Brian McCann, Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval and Michael Young. He might not be worthy of returning to his old spot at No. 3 in the Red Sox lineup, but he's rewarded the faith Francona showed him with a productive second half.
The difference between Ortiz and Varitek, of course, is the fact that the Red Sox have never had a viable alternative to Ortiz. The acquisition of Victor Martinez from Cleveland gave the Red Sox an immediate and impressive alternative to the rapidly fading Varitek.
The offensive numbers, of course, don't compare.
Career OPS
Martinez: .836
Varitek: .780
2005-08 OPS
Martinez: .841
Varitek: .764
2009 OPS
Martinez: .857
Varitek: .717
But Varitek always has been a serviceable hitter rather than a star. His work with Red Sox pitchers has always been his calling card. With Josh Beckett a Cy Young Award candidate and Jon Lester coming into his own, Francona had more than enough ammunition to tell critics that Varitek still would play an essential role in his team down the stretch.
It hasn't gone that way.
Martinez caught Clay Buchholz in Baltimore on Friday, as has become customary. But he caught Lester in Baltimore on Saturday, too -- and that means he's almost completely supplanted Varitek as the team's starting catcher.
The only pitchers who regularly throw to Varitek now are Josh Beckett (likely the team's Game 1 starter in the ALDS) and Paul Byrd (likely a spectactor for the ALCS). Francona has made the decision -- for good reason, it seems -- to push Varitek more and more into the background with Martinez more and more looking like a player who will catch 120 or so games next season.
This begs the question: Will Varitek catch Beckett in the playoffs -- or will Martinez?
"I know the numbers with (Varitek) are phenomenal and I believe in that," Francona told reporters in Baltimore when the subject came up. "I also think the night that Victor caught Beckett was a crazy night. Again, I’m very aware that when Victor catches our lineup is more potent. Also, our goal is to win that game, again that’s where we probably have to sit down at some point.
"I don’t know the answer. I certain don’t think it’s a bad question, but I don’t know what the answer is."
Presuming the Yankees choose the longer of the two ALDS schedules, the Red Sox will play the following schedule in the first round against the Angels (and throw their pitchers in the following order):
Game 1: Oct. 8 (Beckett)
Game 2: Oct. 9 (Lester)
Game 3: Oct. 11 (Buchholz)
Game 4: Oct. 12 (TBD, but likely Daisuke Matsuzaka)
Game 5: Oct. 14 (Beckett)
Martinez certainly can catch five games in seven days. He caught five games in eight days in early September, and that was while playing first base in between rather than having days off to lay around and relax and answer stupid questions from reporters like this one. He'll have the whole winter to recuperate: He's not going to get worn down catching all five games against the Angels in the ALDS.
But that doesn't mean that's what Francona will do.
For one thing, the first and only time Martinez caught Beckett this season, the Red Sox ace surrendered seven runs in 5 1/3 innings. No one really can know if there's any correlation: Beckett then spun off three more lousy starts before turning a corner, and Varitek was behind the plate for those three lousy starts as well as his three encouraging starts since.
Whether you believe something about Varitek makes Beckett pitch better or not, it's tough to deny one point: Francona isn't going to have Beckett pitch to Martinez in Game 1 of the ALDS without having him pitch to Martinez at some point before the season ends. It makes no sense. If Martinez is going to catch Beckett in the playoffs, he's going to have to get another couple of chances to catch him in the regular season.
That, though, gets tricky when the Red Sox are playing 20 straight games without a day off to close out the season.
Martinez needs to keep catching Buchholz and Lester -- and if he's going to be the primary catcher in the postseason, he probably needs to start catching Beckett and Matsuzaka, too. But Francona would be insane to ask Martinez to catch 16 or 17 of the final 20 games of the season and still to expect him to produce at a .900 OPS-type level when it counts the most.
The Red Sox are a better team when Martinez is behind the plate. That's clear. Francona, for all of his loyalty to the veterans who won him two World Series rings, has found a way to ease Varitek out of the Red Sox lineup on an everyday basis.
But he's also not going to risk losing Game 1 of the ALDS because Beckett isn't comfortable with his catcher. Varitek almost certainly is going to catch Beckett in the playoffs.
Francona has always seen his players as more than run producers, as more than batting averages and on-base percentages and strikeout rates. He's always seen his job as manager as more than writing in the lineup card and putting on the hit and run. He's always believed the way he does what's best for his players is the only way to get his players to do what's best for the team.
Look at the way Francona handled the early-season slump of David Ortiz. While fans and writers and radio voices alike all screamed for Ortiz to ride the pine, Francona stuck with him and stuck with him and stuck with him.
"He’s going to get hot,” Francona said in late May. "How hot? I can’t wait to find out. But when he does, that’s why being patient is really the only thing to do. If I’m wrong, I take responsibility. I just think it’s the right thing for us to do."
It wasn't because Francona believed Ortiz was going to look once again like the hitter he'd been two or three years ago when he hit 45 or 50 home runs and OPS'ed well over 1.000. It was because Francona believed Ortiz was better than the hitter who was OPS'ing less than .600 into early June. It was because Francona believed he could get more out of Ortiz by sticking with him than by kicking him to the curb.
Ortiz still isn't the old Ortiz. But he's worked his OPS back up to .767 -- eight points above the average OPS in the American League -- and has hit 24 home runs, the same number as Matt Holliday and more than Victor Martinez, Brian McCann, Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval and Michael Young. He might not be worthy of returning to his old spot at No. 3 in the Red Sox lineup, but he's rewarded the faith Francona showed him with a productive second half.
The difference between Ortiz and Varitek, of course, is the fact that the Red Sox have never had a viable alternative to Ortiz. The acquisition of Victor Martinez from Cleveland gave the Red Sox an immediate and impressive alternative to the rapidly fading Varitek.
The offensive numbers, of course, don't compare.
Career OPS
Martinez: .836
Varitek: .780
2005-08 OPS
Martinez: .841
Varitek: .764
2009 OPS
Martinez: .857
Varitek: .717
But Varitek always has been a serviceable hitter rather than a star. His work with Red Sox pitchers has always been his calling card. With Josh Beckett a Cy Young Award candidate and Jon Lester coming into his own, Francona had more than enough ammunition to tell critics that Varitek still would play an essential role in his team down the stretch.
It hasn't gone that way.
Martinez caught Clay Buchholz in Baltimore on Friday, as has become customary. But he caught Lester in Baltimore on Saturday, too -- and that means he's almost completely supplanted Varitek as the team's starting catcher.
The only pitchers who regularly throw to Varitek now are Josh Beckett (likely the team's Game 1 starter in the ALDS) and Paul Byrd (likely a spectactor for the ALCS). Francona has made the decision -- for good reason, it seems -- to push Varitek more and more into the background with Martinez more and more looking like a player who will catch 120 or so games next season.
This begs the question: Will Varitek catch Beckett in the playoffs -- or will Martinez?
"I know the numbers with (Varitek) are phenomenal and I believe in that," Francona told reporters in Baltimore when the subject came up. "I also think the night that Victor caught Beckett was a crazy night. Again, I’m very aware that when Victor catches our lineup is more potent. Also, our goal is to win that game, again that’s where we probably have to sit down at some point.
"I don’t know the answer. I certain don’t think it’s a bad question, but I don’t know what the answer is."
Presuming the Yankees choose the longer of the two ALDS schedules, the Red Sox will play the following schedule in the first round against the Angels (and throw their pitchers in the following order):
Game 1: Oct. 8 (Beckett)
Game 2: Oct. 9 (Lester)
Game 3: Oct. 11 (Buchholz)
Game 4: Oct. 12 (TBD, but likely Daisuke Matsuzaka)
Game 5: Oct. 14 (Beckett)
Martinez certainly can catch five games in seven days. He caught five games in eight days in early September, and that was while playing first base in between rather than having days off to lay around and relax and answer stupid questions from reporters like this one. He'll have the whole winter to recuperate: He's not going to get worn down catching all five games against the Angels in the ALDS.
But that doesn't mean that's what Francona will do.
For one thing, the first and only time Martinez caught Beckett this season, the Red Sox ace surrendered seven runs in 5 1/3 innings. No one really can know if there's any correlation: Beckett then spun off three more lousy starts before turning a corner, and Varitek was behind the plate for those three lousy starts as well as his three encouraging starts since.
Whether you believe something about Varitek makes Beckett pitch better or not, it's tough to deny one point: Francona isn't going to have Beckett pitch to Martinez in Game 1 of the ALDS without having him pitch to Martinez at some point before the season ends. It makes no sense. If Martinez is going to catch Beckett in the playoffs, he's going to have to get another couple of chances to catch him in the regular season.
That, though, gets tricky when the Red Sox are playing 20 straight games without a day off to close out the season.
Martinez needs to keep catching Buchholz and Lester -- and if he's going to be the primary catcher in the postseason, he probably needs to start catching Beckett and Matsuzaka, too. But Francona would be insane to ask Martinez to catch 16 or 17 of the final 20 games of the season and still to expect him to produce at a .900 OPS-type level when it counts the most.
The Red Sox are a better team when Martinez is behind the plate. That's clear. Francona, for all of his loyalty to the veterans who won him two World Series rings, has found a way to ease Varitek out of the Red Sox lineup on an everyday basis.
But he's also not going to risk losing Game 1 of the ALDS because Beckett isn't comfortable with his catcher. Varitek almost certainly is going to catch Beckett in the playoffs.
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Swinging at first pitch pays dividends
The Red Sox are not a first-pitch-swinging team.
No team in baseball swings at fewer first pitches -- 21 percent -- than the Red Sox. No player in bseball swings at fewer first pitches -- seven percent -- than Dustin Pedroia. Of the first 21 hitters to come to the plate for the Red Sox on Wednesday, only two swung at the first pitch.
One was Mike Lowell, and he immediately regretted his hack at a slider on the inner half of the plate. The result was an error on a long throw from Melvin Mora at third to Ty Wigginton at first, a throw Lowell beat out when Wigginton couldn't dig it out of the dirt.
"I didn't want to swing at that pitch," Lowell said. "But speed never takes a day off."
The other was Jason Varitek on the very next pitch, and the only reason he swung was because the Red Sox had called a hit and run. It didn't go quite the way it was drawn up, but it worked out regardless. Lowell, in fact, ended up with his first stolen base of the season.
As the not-so-fleet-footed third baseman pointed out after the game, he now has at least one stolen base in each of the last 10 seasons.
"I stopped halfway because I didn't think 'Tek swung, and then he swung after it hits his mitt," Lowell said. "What do you want me to do?"
Said Jason Bay, "Speed kills. A straight steal -- and without a throw. That's pretty impressive."
Fluke stolen bases aside, those two examples represented the only instances the Red Sox swung at the first pitch in the first 4 1/3 innings of the game. In a stroke of irony, when Bay swung and missed on the first pitch of his fifth-inning at-bat, he ended up striking out looking on a slider on the inside corner.
The Red Sox just don't swing at the first pitch.
"That’s one of the few pet peeves I have as a hitting coach: Unless you’re doing a lot of damage on the 0-0 count, I don’t want guys swinging at the first pitch," hitting coach Dave Magadan said a couple of weeks ago. "Now, I want guys up there ready to hit on the first pitch. If you get a good pitch to hit, I want you to hit it and drive it. But if you’re hitting .270 on the first pitch with a .500 OPS, you’re not doing a good job. If you’re hitting .270, that’s what your on-base percentage is because you’re putting the first pitch in play."
One guy who has done a lot of damage on the 0-0 count, however, is Victor Martinez. So far this season, entering play Wednesday, the catcher was hitting .341 and slugging .526 when he swings at the first pitch. Since his trade to the Red Sox, he was hitting .375.
But that's not the only reason he took a hack at the first pitch he saw in the bottom of the seventh inning. He was pinch-hitting for George Kottaras with the bases loaded and one out and a back-and-forth game tied at 4.
Sure, righty Danys Baez had just walked Mike Lowell on four pitches to load the bases. But that only gave Martinez more reason to swing away: If there ever was a time for a pitcher to groove a first pitch, this was the time.
"Pinch-hitting is not for everybody," Bay said. "I was once told by somebody who pitch-hit quite a bit: 'There's no working the count as a pinch-hitter. You've got to be ready right from the get-go. You've got to hit that first pitch because it might be the only one you get.'"
Martinez got a fastball on the outer half of the plate, and he stroked it right up the gap in left-center field to clear the bases and hand the back end of the Red Sox bullpen a three-run lead.
(The last time Martinez pinch-hit, he came up against Chicago's Matt Thornton on Aug. 25 with Nick Green at second base. He took a rip at the first pitch he saw from Thornton, another first-pitch fastball, and drilled a line-drive single to left field.)
“Mikey Lowell walked on four straight pitches,’’ Martinez said. “I told myself that he’s going to try to throw a strike right here and just look for the good pitch to hit."
The Red Sox aren't a team that likes to swing at the first pitch. When they do, though, they're dangerous: No team in the major leagues has an OPS higher than their 1.067.
On Wednesday, it won them the game.
No team in baseball swings at fewer first pitches -- 21 percent -- than the Red Sox. No player in bseball swings at fewer first pitches -- seven percent -- than Dustin Pedroia. Of the first 21 hitters to come to the plate for the Red Sox on Wednesday, only two swung at the first pitch.
One was Mike Lowell, and he immediately regretted his hack at a slider on the inner half of the plate. The result was an error on a long throw from Melvin Mora at third to Ty Wigginton at first, a throw Lowell beat out when Wigginton couldn't dig it out of the dirt.
"I didn't want to swing at that pitch," Lowell said. "But speed never takes a day off."
The other was Jason Varitek on the very next pitch, and the only reason he swung was because the Red Sox had called a hit and run. It didn't go quite the way it was drawn up, but it worked out regardless. Lowell, in fact, ended up with his first stolen base of the season.
As the not-so-fleet-footed third baseman pointed out after the game, he now has at least one stolen base in each of the last 10 seasons.
"I stopped halfway because I didn't think 'Tek swung, and then he swung after it hits his mitt," Lowell said. "What do you want me to do?"
Said Jason Bay, "Speed kills. A straight steal -- and without a throw. That's pretty impressive."
Fluke stolen bases aside, those two examples represented the only instances the Red Sox swung at the first pitch in the first 4 1/3 innings of the game. In a stroke of irony, when Bay swung and missed on the first pitch of his fifth-inning at-bat, he ended up striking out looking on a slider on the inside corner.
The Red Sox just don't swing at the first pitch.
"That’s one of the few pet peeves I have as a hitting coach: Unless you’re doing a lot of damage on the 0-0 count, I don’t want guys swinging at the first pitch," hitting coach Dave Magadan said a couple of weeks ago. "Now, I want guys up there ready to hit on the first pitch. If you get a good pitch to hit, I want you to hit it and drive it. But if you’re hitting .270 on the first pitch with a .500 OPS, you’re not doing a good job. If you’re hitting .270, that’s what your on-base percentage is because you’re putting the first pitch in play."
One guy who has done a lot of damage on the 0-0 count, however, is Victor Martinez. So far this season, entering play Wednesday, the catcher was hitting .341 and slugging .526 when he swings at the first pitch. Since his trade to the Red Sox, he was hitting .375.
But that's not the only reason he took a hack at the first pitch he saw in the bottom of the seventh inning. He was pinch-hitting for George Kottaras with the bases loaded and one out and a back-and-forth game tied at 4.
Sure, righty Danys Baez had just walked Mike Lowell on four pitches to load the bases. But that only gave Martinez more reason to swing away: If there ever was a time for a pitcher to groove a first pitch, this was the time.
"Pinch-hitting is not for everybody," Bay said. "I was once told by somebody who pitch-hit quite a bit: 'There's no working the count as a pinch-hitter. You've got to be ready right from the get-go. You've got to hit that first pitch because it might be the only one you get.'"
Martinez got a fastball on the outer half of the plate, and he stroked it right up the gap in left-center field to clear the bases and hand the back end of the Red Sox bullpen a three-run lead.
(The last time Martinez pinch-hit, he came up against Chicago's Matt Thornton on Aug. 25 with Nick Green at second base. He took a rip at the first pitch he saw from Thornton, another first-pitch fastball, and drilled a line-drive single to left field.)
“Mikey Lowell walked on four straight pitches,’’ Martinez said. “I told myself that he’s going to try to throw a strike right here and just look for the good pitch to hit."
The Red Sox aren't a team that likes to swing at the first pitch. When they do, though, they're dangerous: No team in the major leagues has an OPS higher than their 1.067.
On Wednesday, it won them the game.
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Lester's luck turns as Red Sox rally
Jon Lester now has nine no-decisions this season -- including five in his last six starts. He won't remember many of them much more fondly this season than he will the no-decision he recorded in perhaps the most entertaining Red Sox game of the season.
A short summary: Lester lost his win when a nasty curveball took a bad hop in the dirt. Hideki Okajima tried to basket-catch a pop-up and dropped it -- and he then missed a return throw from the catcher to allow the runner to move to second base. Victor Martinez drove in Nick Green in the seventh and eighth innings, a result even more unexpected given that both players spent the first six innings on the bench. Okajima pitched himself into a jam, and Manny Delcarmen pitched himself out of one.
Jason Bay, who had struck out looking twice already on offspeed pitches, hit a home run on an 0-2 offspeed pitch. Jonathan Papelbon met with the media about Billy Wagner in the afternoon and absolutely blew away the White Sox in the evening. Oh, and Jacoby Ellsbury broke the franchise record for stolen bases on the first pitch to Dustin Pedroia in the bottom of the third.
That's the short summary. Here's the long summary.
1. Ellsbury. The 25-year-old speed demon had gone four games without a left before stealing his team-record-tying 54th stolen base of the season on Friday against the Yankees. Tommy Harper was in the house on Sunday, presumably in hopes Ellsbury would break the record that night. It didn't happen.
"Maybe he was hoping I'd break it -- or not break it," Ellsbury said with a smirk. "He was here and he wished me good luck, so I appreciated that."
But Ellsbury didn't steal a record that night -- he went 0-for-5, in fact, and never even got to first base. He then doubled and tripled on Monday but went without a stolen base.
He didn't wait long on Tuesday, though. He jolted a ground-rule double into the Red Sox bullpen and took off on the first pitch Freddy Garcia threw to second baseman Dustin Pedroia. But it didn't stop there. When Pedroia went out to get a slider away and rolled it to first base, Ellsbury cruised home with the game's first run.
"When I go, there's usually a purpose behind it," he said. "I'm not just out there to steal bases. If I was out therej ust to steal bases, I know I could steal quite a few more. But I want to steal at a high success rate to help the team win. That's the most important thing."
2. Lester. The snakebit lefty now has a 2.97 ERA in his last six starts -- and one measly decision to show for it. He fought through fluky adversity in April but has seen his bad luck return in August -- twice has he struck out double-digit batters in six innings, allowing three or fewer runs in the process, and still not earn himself a win.
"It's kind of getting old sometimes," he said. "But you've got to keep plugging away and keep working. The main thing is that we won the ballgame. That's why I'll go home and sleep good tonight."
He didn't look like he was going to sleep good when he left the field in the seventh inning.
He'd gone the whole game without his best stuff, fighting at times to find pitches that would work for him. He'd hit 96 miles an hour in the eighth inning in Toronto last week but saw his velocity track downward as his pitch count climbed from 50 to 75 to 100.
"There are innings when you go out there and you feel really good," he said, "and other innings where you're just battling to find a rhythm. That's what's tough about starting pitching. Sometimes, form inning to inning, you don't know what you have, and sometimes, from game to game, you don't know what you have. You just have to make adjustments from pitch to pitch. At times I did that, and at times I didn't. ... The nice thing is that the times I didn't feel too good about my mechanics or location or what we were trying to do, I was able to minimize the damage and keep the team in the ballgame."
He got himself into a little bit of a jam in the seventh when he allowed a first-pitch single to Paul Konerko and folloewd with a four-pitch walk to Jermaine Dye. A.J. Pierzynski then bunted the runners to second and third. When Alex Rios hit a line drive to J.D. Drew in right field that failed to score Konerko, it looked as though he was about to escape unscathed -- and with the lead.
He threw three straight curveballs to Alexei Ramirez: A called strike at the knees, a nasty swinging strike at the knees and a nastier swinging strike in the dirt. But the third pitch somehow ricocheted off the left edge of the plate and over the right shoulder of catcher Jason Varitek and rolled all the way to the backstop, allowing Ramirez to reach first and Konerko to score from third.
"It hit the right part of the plate with the wrong spin and got over his head," Lester said. "Nine times out of 10, that ball stays in front of the plate and we get out of the inning."
He then caught a little too much of the plate with a sharp cut fastball -- but appeared to catch a break when Nix hit the ball straight at Mike Lowell at third base. The ball hit Lowell square in the glove -- and it bounced away for a run-scoring infield single.
"You couldn't hit 100 fungoes to Mike Lowell and have that exact same result where you hit a ball out of his gloves," Bay said.
An inning-ending strikeout had given way to a two-run rally and a 3-2 White Sox lead and had knocked Lester from the game. The lefty stalked into the dugout and down the stairs and into the clubhouse, a pat on the back from John Farrell his only solace as he stormed away from what looked to be another defeat snatched from the jaws of victory.
3. Okajima. On a day the Red Sox acquired a flame-throwing lefty in Billy Wagner, the incumbent finesse lefty demonstrated once again why he's been one of the best middle relievers in baseball over the last three seasons. He inherited Lester's jam and promptly saw the White Sox load the bases when Scott Podsednik rolled a ground ball into no-man's land between first base and the pitcher's mound.
But the 33-year-old from Japan came back with his best Wagner impression, throwing three splitfingered fastballs to Gordon Beckham before blowing an 88-mile-an-hour fastball at the eyes -- OK, easing an 88-mile-an-hour fastball at the eyes -- past him to end the inning.
4. Martinez. You'd have to guess that Terry Francona doesn't often exchange late-night text messages with his catcher. Last night, though, Francona got a message from Martinez around 1:15 a.m. that said, "Let me play."
"I finally wrote back," Francona said after the game, "and I said, 'Leave me alone. You'll come in and pinch-hit and get the game-winning hit.' He said, 'OK. Good night.'"
It didn't quite go that way. But it still was a big spot when Francona pinch-hit Martinez for Alex Gonzalez with one out in the seventh inning and the Red Sox still trailing by a 3-2 score. He sent shortstop Nick Green to run for Jason Varitek at the same time, effectively a double-switch with his shortstop and his catcher.
Martinez didn't wait long, jumping on a Matt Thornton fastball in the middle of the plate and ripping it into left field to score Green from second with the tying run. Martinez knew what to expect from Thornton, having faced him 19 times in his days with the Cleveland Indians, and he didn't expect the 6-foot-6 lefty to mess around at all.
"I just went up there and looked for his strength," Martinez said. "It's no secret. Everybody knows he's got a great fastball. I went up there to go get one and put a good swing on the ball."
Tie game.
5. Delcarmen. Carlos Quentin popped the second pitch he saw in the eighth inning over the pitcher's mound, a pop-up just high enough to make Okajima hesitate rather than calling for it himself. The result was a botched basket catch on the back of the mound to allow the runner to reach. (The play first was ruled an error but later changed to a hit.)
"It's got to be Oki's ball because of the height," Francona said. "It was like somebody punched me in the stomach -- and before I could look even look up, I felt like I got hit with the other hand."
The other hand? That came when a return throw from Martinez to Okajima missed the pitcher's outstretched glove and rolled all the way into center field, allowing Quentin to scramble to second base and threatening to turn a tie game back into a White Sox win.
Francona stuck with Okajima long enough to let him induce a pop fly to Dye and strike out Pierzynski, the last lefty in the White Sox lineup for a little while. But he then went to Delcarmen with two outs and runners on first and third and Rios striding to the plate.
Delcarmen found himself on the periphery of controversy this week after the report that both he and Jonathan Papelbon weren't overly enthusiastic about the then-rumored move for Wagner. He also hasn't exactly been the most lights-out pitcher in the Red Sox bullpen and has seen himself passed by both Daniel Bard and Ramon Ramirez in terms of the faith Francona has in him in big spots. Part of the reason is the fact that he's averaging almost a walk every other inning he pitches. When he comes into a game with runners on base, he often puts more runners on base.
True to form, he missed with back-to-back fastballs to Rios.
(Ozzie Guillen made an interesting call, by the way, in not pinch-hitting Jim Thome for Rios. Rios has hit lefties and righties equally in his career, but Thome has crushed righties to the tune of a 1.045 OPS in his career. It seemed logical that once Francona called for Delcarmen, Guillen would send up Thome. But Delcarmen has a goofy reverse split: He's a righthanded pitcher, but righties have hit .260 off him in his career while lefties have hit just .216.)
The third pitch Delcarmen threw was a 92-mile-an-hour fastball at the letters, and Rios popped it into shallow center field. Pedroia caught it for the third out.
6. Bay. Not much has been consistent about Bay's season. He began the season on a tear that turned "Sign Bay!" into a "Don't Treat On Me"-esque New England anthem, but his OPS numbers dwindled from there -- from 1.123 in April to .978 to .701 to .689 in a miserable July in which he hit just one home run.
But things have taken a turn for the better in August. He went into Tuesday's game with seven home runs for the month, and that meant he was feeling a little better in the eighth inning even though he'd already taken two called third strikes against Garcia in the early going.
"It was a constant battle," he said. "You go up there looking for a pitch you can drive, and I had some early on that I didn't swing at. It's kind of nice to do it when it matters."
It mattered in the bottom of the eighth with the game still tied at 3. David Ortiz had turned on a Thornton curveball and put a nice stroke on the ball and hit a line drive almost to the warning track in right field before Dye hauled it in. Bay then came up and took a called strike on a curveball and fouled off a slider to put himself right into the hole he didn't want to be in.
"The problem is, when I look breaking ball, half the time, that's when I swing at it when it bounces because you're looking for it and you get it," he said. "At that point, he had thrown me two (breaking balls), but it's still in the back of your mind that he throws 96 miles an hour. You're just basically looking for a strike."
Thornton hung a splitter, a terrible two-strike pitch right of the middle of the plate, and Bay crushed it into the Green Monster seats.
"It's easier said than done, just to react, but that's basically what it was," he said.
Green, Martinez and Ellsbury followed with hits to score two more runs and push the score to 6-3, a more than manageable margin for a dominant-looking Papelbon in the ninth.
Postscript: Bay's night ended with, of all things, a drug test. He took longer than usual to emerge into the locker room because, he said, "I couldn't go." Two Red Sox players were tested -- Bay and, of course, Ellsbury.
Did they find anything on the record-breaking base-stealer?
"I'll let you know," he said with a grin.
A short summary: Lester lost his win when a nasty curveball took a bad hop in the dirt. Hideki Okajima tried to basket-catch a pop-up and dropped it -- and he then missed a return throw from the catcher to allow the runner to move to second base. Victor Martinez drove in Nick Green in the seventh and eighth innings, a result even more unexpected given that both players spent the first six innings on the bench. Okajima pitched himself into a jam, and Manny Delcarmen pitched himself out of one.
Jason Bay, who had struck out looking twice already on offspeed pitches, hit a home run on an 0-2 offspeed pitch. Jonathan Papelbon met with the media about Billy Wagner in the afternoon and absolutely blew away the White Sox in the evening. Oh, and Jacoby Ellsbury broke the franchise record for stolen bases on the first pitch to Dustin Pedroia in the bottom of the third.
That's the short summary. Here's the long summary.
1. Ellsbury. The 25-year-old speed demon had gone four games without a left before stealing his team-record-tying 54th stolen base of the season on Friday against the Yankees. Tommy Harper was in the house on Sunday, presumably in hopes Ellsbury would break the record that night. It didn't happen.
"Maybe he was hoping I'd break it -- or not break it," Ellsbury said with a smirk. "He was here and he wished me good luck, so I appreciated that."
But Ellsbury didn't steal a record that night -- he went 0-for-5, in fact, and never even got to first base. He then doubled and tripled on Monday but went without a stolen base.
He didn't wait long on Tuesday, though. He jolted a ground-rule double into the Red Sox bullpen and took off on the first pitch Freddy Garcia threw to second baseman Dustin Pedroia. But it didn't stop there. When Pedroia went out to get a slider away and rolled it to first base, Ellsbury cruised home with the game's first run.
"When I go, there's usually a purpose behind it," he said. "I'm not just out there to steal bases. If I was out therej ust to steal bases, I know I could steal quite a few more. But I want to steal at a high success rate to help the team win. That's the most important thing."
2. Lester. The snakebit lefty now has a 2.97 ERA in his last six starts -- and one measly decision to show for it. He fought through fluky adversity in April but has seen his bad luck return in August -- twice has he struck out double-digit batters in six innings, allowing three or fewer runs in the process, and still not earn himself a win.
"It's kind of getting old sometimes," he said. "But you've got to keep plugging away and keep working. The main thing is that we won the ballgame. That's why I'll go home and sleep good tonight."
He didn't look like he was going to sleep good when he left the field in the seventh inning.
He'd gone the whole game without his best stuff, fighting at times to find pitches that would work for him. He'd hit 96 miles an hour in the eighth inning in Toronto last week but saw his velocity track downward as his pitch count climbed from 50 to 75 to 100.
"There are innings when you go out there and you feel really good," he said, "and other innings where you're just battling to find a rhythm. That's what's tough about starting pitching. Sometimes, form inning to inning, you don't know what you have, and sometimes, from game to game, you don't know what you have. You just have to make adjustments from pitch to pitch. At times I did that, and at times I didn't. ... The nice thing is that the times I didn't feel too good about my mechanics or location or what we were trying to do, I was able to minimize the damage and keep the team in the ballgame."
He got himself into a little bit of a jam in the seventh when he allowed a first-pitch single to Paul Konerko and folloewd with a four-pitch walk to Jermaine Dye. A.J. Pierzynski then bunted the runners to second and third. When Alex Rios hit a line drive to J.D. Drew in right field that failed to score Konerko, it looked as though he was about to escape unscathed -- and with the lead.
He threw three straight curveballs to Alexei Ramirez: A called strike at the knees, a nasty swinging strike at the knees and a nastier swinging strike in the dirt. But the third pitch somehow ricocheted off the left edge of the plate and over the right shoulder of catcher Jason Varitek and rolled all the way to the backstop, allowing Ramirez to reach first and Konerko to score from third.
"It hit the right part of the plate with the wrong spin and got over his head," Lester said. "Nine times out of 10, that ball stays in front of the plate and we get out of the inning."
He then caught a little too much of the plate with a sharp cut fastball -- but appeared to catch a break when Nix hit the ball straight at Mike Lowell at third base. The ball hit Lowell square in the glove -- and it bounced away for a run-scoring infield single.
"You couldn't hit 100 fungoes to Mike Lowell and have that exact same result where you hit a ball out of his gloves," Bay said.
An inning-ending strikeout had given way to a two-run rally and a 3-2 White Sox lead and had knocked Lester from the game. The lefty stalked into the dugout and down the stairs and into the clubhouse, a pat on the back from John Farrell his only solace as he stormed away from what looked to be another defeat snatched from the jaws of victory.
3. Okajima. On a day the Red Sox acquired a flame-throwing lefty in Billy Wagner, the incumbent finesse lefty demonstrated once again why he's been one of the best middle relievers in baseball over the last three seasons. He inherited Lester's jam and promptly saw the White Sox load the bases when Scott Podsednik rolled a ground ball into no-man's land between first base and the pitcher's mound.
But the 33-year-old from Japan came back with his best Wagner impression, throwing three splitfingered fastballs to Gordon Beckham before blowing an 88-mile-an-hour fastball at the eyes -- OK, easing an 88-mile-an-hour fastball at the eyes -- past him to end the inning.
4. Martinez. You'd have to guess that Terry Francona doesn't often exchange late-night text messages with his catcher. Last night, though, Francona got a message from Martinez around 1:15 a.m. that said, "Let me play."
"I finally wrote back," Francona said after the game, "and I said, 'Leave me alone. You'll come in and pinch-hit and get the game-winning hit.' He said, 'OK. Good night.'"
It didn't quite go that way. But it still was a big spot when Francona pinch-hit Martinez for Alex Gonzalez with one out in the seventh inning and the Red Sox still trailing by a 3-2 score. He sent shortstop Nick Green to run for Jason Varitek at the same time, effectively a double-switch with his shortstop and his catcher.
Martinez didn't wait long, jumping on a Matt Thornton fastball in the middle of the plate and ripping it into left field to score Green from second with the tying run. Martinez knew what to expect from Thornton, having faced him 19 times in his days with the Cleveland Indians, and he didn't expect the 6-foot-6 lefty to mess around at all.
"I just went up there and looked for his strength," Martinez said. "It's no secret. Everybody knows he's got a great fastball. I went up there to go get one and put a good swing on the ball."
Tie game.
5. Delcarmen. Carlos Quentin popped the second pitch he saw in the eighth inning over the pitcher's mound, a pop-up just high enough to make Okajima hesitate rather than calling for it himself. The result was a botched basket catch on the back of the mound to allow the runner to reach. (The play first was ruled an error but later changed to a hit.)
"It's got to be Oki's ball because of the height," Francona said. "It was like somebody punched me in the stomach -- and before I could look even look up, I felt like I got hit with the other hand."
The other hand? That came when a return throw from Martinez to Okajima missed the pitcher's outstretched glove and rolled all the way into center field, allowing Quentin to scramble to second base and threatening to turn a tie game back into a White Sox win.
Francona stuck with Okajima long enough to let him induce a pop fly to Dye and strike out Pierzynski, the last lefty in the White Sox lineup for a little while. But he then went to Delcarmen with two outs and runners on first and third and Rios striding to the plate.
Delcarmen found himself on the periphery of controversy this week after the report that both he and Jonathan Papelbon weren't overly enthusiastic about the then-rumored move for Wagner. He also hasn't exactly been the most lights-out pitcher in the Red Sox bullpen and has seen himself passed by both Daniel Bard and Ramon Ramirez in terms of the faith Francona has in him in big spots. Part of the reason is the fact that he's averaging almost a walk every other inning he pitches. When he comes into a game with runners on base, he often puts more runners on base.
True to form, he missed with back-to-back fastballs to Rios.
(Ozzie Guillen made an interesting call, by the way, in not pinch-hitting Jim Thome for Rios. Rios has hit lefties and righties equally in his career, but Thome has crushed righties to the tune of a 1.045 OPS in his career. It seemed logical that once Francona called for Delcarmen, Guillen would send up Thome. But Delcarmen has a goofy reverse split: He's a righthanded pitcher, but righties have hit .260 off him in his career while lefties have hit just .216.)
The third pitch Delcarmen threw was a 92-mile-an-hour fastball at the letters, and Rios popped it into shallow center field. Pedroia caught it for the third out.
6. Bay. Not much has been consistent about Bay's season. He began the season on a tear that turned "Sign Bay!" into a "Don't Treat On Me"-esque New England anthem, but his OPS numbers dwindled from there -- from 1.123 in April to .978 to .701 to .689 in a miserable July in which he hit just one home run.
But things have taken a turn for the better in August. He went into Tuesday's game with seven home runs for the month, and that meant he was feeling a little better in the eighth inning even though he'd already taken two called third strikes against Garcia in the early going.
"It was a constant battle," he said. "You go up there looking for a pitch you can drive, and I had some early on that I didn't swing at. It's kind of nice to do it when it matters."
It mattered in the bottom of the eighth with the game still tied at 3. David Ortiz had turned on a Thornton curveball and put a nice stroke on the ball and hit a line drive almost to the warning track in right field before Dye hauled it in. Bay then came up and took a called strike on a curveball and fouled off a slider to put himself right into the hole he didn't want to be in.
"The problem is, when I look breaking ball, half the time, that's when I swing at it when it bounces because you're looking for it and you get it," he said. "At that point, he had thrown me two (breaking balls), but it's still in the back of your mind that he throws 96 miles an hour. You're just basically looking for a strike."
Thornton hung a splitter, a terrible two-strike pitch right of the middle of the plate, and Bay crushed it into the Green Monster seats.
"It's easier said than done, just to react, but that's basically what it was," he said.
Green, Martinez and Ellsbury followed with hits to score two more runs and push the score to 6-3, a more than manageable margin for a dominant-looking Papelbon in the ninth.
Postscript: Bay's night ended with, of all things, a drug test. He took longer than usual to emerge into the locker room because, he said, "I couldn't go." Two Red Sox players were tested -- Bay and, of course, Ellsbury.
Did they find anything on the record-breaking base-stealer?
"I'll let you know," he said with a grin.
Sunday, August 2, 2009
Big Papi in midst of big slide
It was 2 1/2 months ago that David Ortiz went a woeful 0-for-7 in a 12-inning loss to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, the worst game of his worst season as a professional baseball player. It was minutes after that game that he uttered the memorable line, "Just put down, 'Papi stinks.'" It was less than two weeks later that Terry Francona dropped him out of the No. 3 spot in the batting order for the first time in almost exactly four years. It was as bad as it could possibly get.
Well, it's that bad again. David Ortiz went 0-for-5 on Sunday against the Baltimore Orioles and left an astounding 10 runners on base:
* He popped to shallow left field with the bases loaded in the first;
* He drew a walk with the bases loaded in the second;
* He lined out to second with two on in the fourth;
* He rolled into a double play with the bases loaded in the sixth;
* He grounded out to first with a runner on second in the eighth.
He had a chance to drive home 13 runs in the game -- 18 if you include the possibility of home runs -- and he drove in just one. (The double play did plate a run, but if you're going to argue that the double play was a productive at-bat is grasping at straws.)
Now that Victor Martinez is in the fold and ready to rake, it's again time to wonder if David Ortiz might best serve the Red Sox by playing only against righthanded pitchers -- and, even then, maybe not against all righthanded pitchers. The only problem is that Martinez, too, has had to endure a pretty epic slump through the month of July.
Consider these numbers:
* Ortiz this July: .247/.306/.539
* Ortiz in July in his career: .314/.410/.617
(He has no month in which he has a higher batting average, on-base percentage or slugging percentage than in July.)
* Ortiz in August in his career: .264/.371/.531
* Ortiz in September in his career: .284/.381/.571
* Victor Martinez this July: .175/.280/.250
* Martinez in July in his career: .274/.350/.413
(Only May, historically, has been a worse month for Martinez.)
* Martinez in August in his career: .316/.390/.484
* Martinez in September in his career: .310/.392/.459
Ortiz just OBP'ed .306 in a month in which he normally OBP's over .400, and he normally sees his numbers fall across the board as the calendar turns to August and September.
Martinez, on the other hand, scuffled through July the way he normally scuffled through July -- and his five-hit day on Sunday might just be an indication that he's ready to get hot in August the way he normally gets hot in August.
Here's one more set of numbers for you:
Mike Lowell's Ultimate Zone Rating: minus-9.7
Mike Lowell's Fielding Bible Plus-Minus: minus-21
Mike Lowell at the plate since his DL stint: .415/.500/.694
Lowell has been smoking the ball at the plate. He's also shown almost zero range at third base. One example: With one out and runners on first and second in Sunday's third inning, Clay Buchholz induced a slow ground ball between shortstop and third base. Lowell lunged for it but never got his glove on the ball. Had he made the plate, he might have turned an inning-ending double play -- and Buchholz would have escaped without allowing the six third-inning runs about which Red Sox fans will be talking on Monday morning.
But Lowell didn't reach it. The statistics above demonstrate why: His hip injury has robbed him of almost all of his range. Does that sound like a designated hitter to anyone else?
Well, it's that bad again. David Ortiz went 0-for-5 on Sunday against the Baltimore Orioles and left an astounding 10 runners on base:
* He popped to shallow left field with the bases loaded in the first;
* He drew a walk with the bases loaded in the second;
* He lined out to second with two on in the fourth;
* He rolled into a double play with the bases loaded in the sixth;
* He grounded out to first with a runner on second in the eighth.
He had a chance to drive home 13 runs in the game -- 18 if you include the possibility of home runs -- and he drove in just one. (The double play did plate a run, but if you're going to argue that the double play was a productive at-bat is grasping at straws.)
Now that Victor Martinez is in the fold and ready to rake, it's again time to wonder if David Ortiz might best serve the Red Sox by playing only against righthanded pitchers -- and, even then, maybe not against all righthanded pitchers. The only problem is that Martinez, too, has had to endure a pretty epic slump through the month of July.
Consider these numbers:
* Ortiz this July: .247/.306/.539
* Ortiz in July in his career: .314/.410/.617
(He has no month in which he has a higher batting average, on-base percentage or slugging percentage than in July.)
* Ortiz in August in his career: .264/.371/.531
* Ortiz in September in his career: .284/.381/.571
* Victor Martinez this July: .175/.280/.250
* Martinez in July in his career: .274/.350/.413
(Only May, historically, has been a worse month for Martinez.)
* Martinez in August in his career: .316/.390/.484
* Martinez in September in his career: .310/.392/.459
Ortiz just OBP'ed .306 in a month in which he normally OBP's over .400, and he normally sees his numbers fall across the board as the calendar turns to August and September.
Martinez, on the other hand, scuffled through July the way he normally scuffled through July -- and his five-hit day on Sunday might just be an indication that he's ready to get hot in August the way he normally gets hot in August.
Here's one more set of numbers for you:
Mike Lowell's Ultimate Zone Rating: minus-9.7
Mike Lowell's Fielding Bible Plus-Minus: minus-21
Mike Lowell at the plate since his DL stint: .415/.500/.694
Lowell has been smoking the ball at the plate. He's also shown almost zero range at third base. One example: With one out and runners on first and second in Sunday's third inning, Clay Buchholz induced a slow ground ball between shortstop and third base. Lowell lunged for it but never got his glove on the ball. Had he made the plate, he might have turned an inning-ending double play -- and Buchholz would have escaped without allowing the six third-inning runs about which Red Sox fans will be talking on Monday morning.
But Lowell didn't reach it. The statistics above demonstrate why: His hip injury has robbed him of almost all of his range. Does that sound like a designated hitter to anyone else?
Saturday, August 1, 2009
Welcome aboard, Victor Martinez
The idea was to write an introduction to Victor Martinez, a little guide to why he's such a good fit for the Red Sox lineup. But we already did that a month ago.
So, then, here you go.
So, then, here you go.
Friday, July 3, 2009
Let's talk trade: Victor Martinez
Numerous reports have the Red Sox again taking an interest in Cleveland catcher/first baseman Victor Martinez -- and the Indians taking an interest, as anyone would, in the Red Sox's glut of young pitching.
(SI's Jon Heyman cites no sources in raising the possibility of a trade, but this is the same writer who declared a month ago that the Indians wouldn't trade Martinez because CC Sabathia -- neither a general manager or a member of the Cleveland organization -- told him so.)
It's certainly an interesting possibility. Martinez is OPS'ing .916 this season and likely will be named to the American League All-Star team on Sunday. He's one of the best hitters in the American League and would look great in the middle of the Red Sox lineup.
Among questions that would need to be answered:
How well would he fit in the lineup?
To put it simply: He'd be a terrific fit. The Red Sox have put together a batting order that, with a couple of exceptions, works counts and gets on base and generally drives opposing pitchers crazy. Here's how a few of Martinez's numbers stack up with some of the Red Sox's key hitters (sorted by overall American League rank):
On-base percentage
2. Kevin Youkilis, .439
13. Victor Martinez, .393
17. J.D. Drew, .386
27. Dustin Pedroia, .372
28. Jason Bay, .370
40. Jacoby Ellsbury, .352
57. Jason Varitek, .336
League average: .335
Pitches per plate appearance
1. Youkilis, 4.51
11. Drew, 4.15
22. David Ortiz, 4.03
25. Bay. 4.02
36. Martinez, 3.95
47. Varitek, 3.88
50. Pedroia, 3.86
League average: 3.82
Percentage of pitches swung at
8. Drew, 37 percent
9. Youkilis, 37 percent
11. Pedroia, 38 percent
12. Martinez, 38 percent
16. Bay, 39 percent
25. Mike Lowell, 42 percent
League average: 45 percent
The Red Sox grind at-bats and get on base in large part because they're so patient at the plate. Martinez excels at doing exactly what the Red Sox want their hitters to do.
Where would Martinez play?
That's the question. Right now, with Mike Lowell on the disabled list and Kevin Youkilis manning third base, Martinez could play full-time at first and catch once or twice a week to give Jason Varitek a break while allowing George Kottaras to focus exclusively on catching Tim Wakefield.
But when Lowell returns, the Red Sox suddenly would have too many talented hitters and not enough positions on the field. When the Red Sox were rumored to be flirting with Martinez in late May and early June, they were doing so because they were getting next to no production from their designated hitter. David Ortiz, though, hit .320 with seven home runs in June and has quieted those who called for his indefinite benching.
Lowell, on the other hand, is going to expect to play regularly when he gets back. He needs someone to give him an occasional break, sure, but he's still the Red Sox third baseman. (He's under contract through 2010, and the Red Sox already had to mend fences with him after their courtship of Mark Teixeira this winter.) With Youkilis at first base and Jason Varitek behind the plate, there's nowhere to play Martinez on an everyday basis.
Just to fit him on the roster, the Red Sox likely would have to release Mark Kotsay, severely depleting their depth in the outfield. (Jeff Bailey will be shipped back to Triple-A Pawtucket once Lowell is activated.) The only other option would be to try to get Kottaras through waivers and send him to Triple-A Pawtucket -- but not only do you lose Tim Wakefield's personal catcher, but you risk losing Kottaras entirely.
What should the Red Sox be willing to give up for him?
Assuming the Red Sox decide they have a place to play Martinez -- and that likely only would happen if Lowell was going to be sidelined for most of the second half -- they still have to pay a steep price for him.
The Indians, of course, are going to start with Clay Buchholz -- and they'd be right to do so. Martinez compares favorably with Youkilis as a hitter and in his versatility in the field, and the Red Sox would demand a huge ransom if they ever decided they needed to trade Youkilis.
Buchholz remains the top prospect in the organization, a potential top-of-the-rotation starter with the same sort of upside as Jon Lester -- as well as Atlanta's Tommy Hanson, Los Angeles' Clayton Kershaw and Detroit's Rick Porcello.
Even better, he's under team control and cost-controlled for his first six years in the major leagues. To put that in perspective: The Red Sox are paying Brad Penny $5 million plus incentives this season. The Red Sox wouldn't have to pay Buchholz that much during his first three seasons combined. There's a reason young players have become so coveted.
Martinez will turn 31 at the end of this season and will be almost 32 when his contract expires -- assuming his $7 million option for 2010 is picked up. If the Red Sox were to make a deal for him, they'd almost certainly have to sign him to an extension to make him worth the price. Any extension, though, would include seasons in which he was 33, 34 and maybe even 35 years old -- ages at which player after player after player has shown steep decline.
The Indians can't trade Martinez without getting Buchholz back. The Red Sox can't trade Buchholz, though, without getting someone who can contribute in a cost-efficient way for more than a year and a half.
(SI's Jon Heyman cites no sources in raising the possibility of a trade, but this is the same writer who declared a month ago that the Indians wouldn't trade Martinez because CC Sabathia -- neither a general manager or a member of the Cleveland organization -- told him so.)
It's certainly an interesting possibility. Martinez is OPS'ing .916 this season and likely will be named to the American League All-Star team on Sunday. He's one of the best hitters in the American League and would look great in the middle of the Red Sox lineup.
Among questions that would need to be answered:
How well would he fit in the lineup?
To put it simply: He'd be a terrific fit. The Red Sox have put together a batting order that, with a couple of exceptions, works counts and gets on base and generally drives opposing pitchers crazy. Here's how a few of Martinez's numbers stack up with some of the Red Sox's key hitters (sorted by overall American League rank):
On-base percentage
2. Kevin Youkilis, .439
13. Victor Martinez, .393
17. J.D. Drew, .386
27. Dustin Pedroia, .372
28. Jason Bay, .370
40. Jacoby Ellsbury, .352
57. Jason Varitek, .336
League average: .335
Pitches per plate appearance
1. Youkilis, 4.51
11. Drew, 4.15
22. David Ortiz, 4.03
25. Bay. 4.02
36. Martinez, 3.95
47. Varitek, 3.88
50. Pedroia, 3.86
League average: 3.82
Percentage of pitches swung at
8. Drew, 37 percent
9. Youkilis, 37 percent
11. Pedroia, 38 percent
12. Martinez, 38 percent
16. Bay, 39 percent
25. Mike Lowell, 42 percent
League average: 45 percent
The Red Sox grind at-bats and get on base in large part because they're so patient at the plate. Martinez excels at doing exactly what the Red Sox want their hitters to do.
Where would Martinez play?
That's the question. Right now, with Mike Lowell on the disabled list and Kevin Youkilis manning third base, Martinez could play full-time at first and catch once or twice a week to give Jason Varitek a break while allowing George Kottaras to focus exclusively on catching Tim Wakefield.
But when Lowell returns, the Red Sox suddenly would have too many talented hitters and not enough positions on the field. When the Red Sox were rumored to be flirting with Martinez in late May and early June, they were doing so because they were getting next to no production from their designated hitter. David Ortiz, though, hit .320 with seven home runs in June and has quieted those who called for his indefinite benching.
Lowell, on the other hand, is going to expect to play regularly when he gets back. He needs someone to give him an occasional break, sure, but he's still the Red Sox third baseman. (He's under contract through 2010, and the Red Sox already had to mend fences with him after their courtship of Mark Teixeira this winter.) With Youkilis at first base and Jason Varitek behind the plate, there's nowhere to play Martinez on an everyday basis.
Just to fit him on the roster, the Red Sox likely would have to release Mark Kotsay, severely depleting their depth in the outfield. (Jeff Bailey will be shipped back to Triple-A Pawtucket once Lowell is activated.) The only other option would be to try to get Kottaras through waivers and send him to Triple-A Pawtucket -- but not only do you lose Tim Wakefield's personal catcher, but you risk losing Kottaras entirely.
What should the Red Sox be willing to give up for him?
Assuming the Red Sox decide they have a place to play Martinez -- and that likely only would happen if Lowell was going to be sidelined for most of the second half -- they still have to pay a steep price for him.
The Indians, of course, are going to start with Clay Buchholz -- and they'd be right to do so. Martinez compares favorably with Youkilis as a hitter and in his versatility in the field, and the Red Sox would demand a huge ransom if they ever decided they needed to trade Youkilis.
Buchholz remains the top prospect in the organization, a potential top-of-the-rotation starter with the same sort of upside as Jon Lester -- as well as Atlanta's Tommy Hanson, Los Angeles' Clayton Kershaw and Detroit's Rick Porcello.
Even better, he's under team control and cost-controlled for his first six years in the major leagues. To put that in perspective: The Red Sox are paying Brad Penny $5 million plus incentives this season. The Red Sox wouldn't have to pay Buchholz that much during his first three seasons combined. There's a reason young players have become so coveted.
Martinez will turn 31 at the end of this season and will be almost 32 when his contract expires -- assuming his $7 million option for 2010 is picked up. If the Red Sox were to make a deal for him, they'd almost certainly have to sign him to an extension to make him worth the price. Any extension, though, would include seasons in which he was 33, 34 and maybe even 35 years old -- ages at which player after player after player has shown steep decline.
The Indians can't trade Martinez without getting Buchholz back. The Red Sox can't trade Buchholz, though, without getting someone who can contribute in a cost-efficient way for more than a year and a half.
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