Showing posts with label mayo. Show all posts
Showing posts with label mayo. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Patriots-Jets: Who would you take?

It already was a hot topic in this area last week and only will be a hotter topic this week now that the New York Jets have advanced to play the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC title game on Sunday: Are the Jets better positioned on defense going forward -- defense, of course, being the bread and butter of Bill Belichick -- than the Patriots?

A position-by-position breakdown seems to indicate that, yes, the Jets had a significantly more talented defense this season and will have a significantly more talented defense going forward, especially as the Patriots grapple with the uncertain situation surrounding Vince Wilfork and the Jets anticipating the return of their defense almost intact next season:

(In parentheses are the regular-season performance rankings by the film analysts at ProFootballFocus.com.)

Nose tackle
Jets: Sione Pouha (plus-15.2)
Patriots: Vince Wilfork (plus-9.6)
Rex Ryan's defense appears not to have lost much since the injury to Kris Jenkins. Pouha is a terrific run-stopper who can shed blocks quickly enough to make tackles. Wilfork, however, still is a Pro Bowler and one of the top nose tackles in the NFL. Edge: Patriots.

Defensive end
Jets: Shaun Ellis (minus-0.7), Marques Douglas (minus-2.7)
Patriots: Jarvis Green (minus-14.1), Ty Warren (plus-3.9)
Green had a chance to seize control of the job at defensive end upon the trade of Richard Seymour but too often found himself pushed off the line on running plays and unable to get close to the quarterback on passing plays. When Wilfork moved to end in the Patriots' playoff game, it was Green who went to the bench with Mike Wright playing the nose. In a 3-4 defense, the defensive linemen first and foremost must occupy blockers to give the linebackers a chance to make plays, and Douglas and Ellis did that better than Green and Warren. Edge: Jets.

Outside linebacker
Jets: Calvin Pace (plus-6.9), Bryan Thomas (plus-11.8)
Patriots: Tully Banta-Cain (plus-21.8), Adalius Thomas (minus-8.5)
As disappointing as Thomas was, that's how surprising Banta-Cain was. Pace, on the other hand, played a well-rounded game against both the run and the pass, even finishing with eight sacks, while Thomas thrived as a run-stopper off the edge, finishing the regular season with more than 50 tackles for the third time in four seasons. Edge: Jets.

Inside linebacker
Jets: David Harris (plus-6.8), Bart Scott (plus-4.7)
Patriots: Gary Guyton (minus-2.2), Jerod Mayo (minus-3.5)
No contest. While Mayo endured something of a disappointing second season, Harris emerged as a star alongside the veteran Scott, an import from Ryan's Baltimore Ravens defenses. Scott plugged the middle of the line on runs and Harris thrived both in blitzes and in pass coverage, finishing with 5 1/2 sacks, three pass break-ups and two interceptions. Edge: Jets.

Cornerback
Jets: Darrelle Revis (plus-29.1), Lito Sheppard (minus-1.7)
Patriots: Leigh Bodden (plus-6.8), Shawn Springs (plus-1.7)
Quarterbacks just don't throw at Revis. The Patriots haven't had anyone like that since the departure of Ty Law. Edge: Jets.

Strong safety
Jets: Jim Leonhard (plus-5.1)
Patriots: James Sanders (minus-1.4)
Leonhard, another Ryan import from Baltimore, had an uneven season against the run but broke up five passes and thrived in deep pass coverage. Sanders lost his job to Brandon McGowan early in the season and won it back down the stretch, finishing with his lowest tackle total (48) in three seasons. Edge: Jets.

Free safety
Jets: Kerry Rhodes (plus-11.0)
Patriots: Brandon Meriweather (plus-5.0)
Despite Meriweather's selection to the Pro Bowl, the last memory one will take into the offseason will be the way Ray Rice blew past him on his 83-yard run on the first play from scrimmage in the first round of the playoffs. Meriweather intercepted five passes and forced two fumbles, but his play generally was more inconsistent than it should have been. Rhodes, on the other hand, didn't have a particularly bad game all season, and he broke up 13 passes in his center-field role for the Jets. Edge: Push.

***

Let's revisit the question: Of the Jets' and Patriots' top 11 defenders, who would you take? In other words, if the rosters were combined, who of the Patriots' defenders would start?

Wilfork would start at nose. Warren would start at end with either Douglas or Ellis at the other end. Banta-Cain would be a third-down pass-rusher behind Pace, probably. Bodden would start at corner opposite Revis. Meriweather might -- might -- start at free safety instead of Rhodes, but that's a toss-up at best.

The Jets' top-ranked defense wasn't a fluke, and it's not going anywhere anytime soon. If quarterback Mark Sanchez takes a reasonable step forward in his second season, the Patriots are going to have some serious trouble hanging onto the AFC East title.

Sunday, December 27, 2009

Time for Mayo to make some big plays

Jerod Mayo entered this week with a team-best 89 tackles, including 60 of the solo variety. He's easily on pace to crack the 100-tackle mark for the second straight season -- particularly impressive given that he missed almost four full games with a knee injury.

Still, though, for the reigning NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year, for a player who was expected to be among the NFL's elite linebackers entering the season, Mayo has had an awfully quiet season. An examination of the film a couple of weeks ago revealed that Mayo hasn't necessarily been in position to make plays -- but, still, the best defensive players find ways to get to the ball and to strip it or intercept it or otherwise disrupt what the offense is trying to do.

A look at Mayo's other defensive numbers this season:
* 1.5 sacks -- his only solo sack was against Indianapolis;
* 3 quarterback hits;
* 0 interceptions
* 0 pass break-ups
* 1 forced fumble

Just for the sake of comparison:
* Patrick Willis, the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2007, had a sack, a forced fumble, 10 pass break-ups and an interception he returned 86 yards for a touchdown in his second season with the San Francisco 49ers;
* Keith Rivers, the linebacker taken one spot ahead of Mayo in the NFL draft in 2008, has a pass break-up, a forced fumble and an interception in his second season with the Cincinnati Bengals;
* James Laurinaitis, the linebacker the Patriots could have drafted in the first round last season before trading down, has three pass break-ups, two interceptions and a forced fumble in his rookie season with the St. Louis Rams.

Just for the sake of context:
* Randy Moss has more interceptions than Mayo;
* Sam Aiken has as many forced fumbles as Mayo;
* Pat Chung has more sacks than Mayo;
* Rob Ninkovich and Adalius Thomas both have more pass break-ups than Mayo.

Just for the sake of running the numbers: Here's a look at the sum of big plays -- sacks, hits on the quarterback, interceptions, pass break-ups and forced fumbles -- the Patriots have recorded defensively this season:
* Tully Banta-Cain, 23.5 (including 8.5 sacks)
* Leigh Bodden, 22 (including 17 pass break-ups)
* Mike Wright, 15 (including five sacks)
* Brandon Meriweather, 13 (including four interceptions)
* Derrick Burgess, 12 (including four sacks)
* Gary Guyton, 11 (including six quarterback hits)
* Brandon McGowan, 11 (including three forced fumbles)
* Adalius Thomas, 11 (including three sacks)
* Darius Butler, 9 (including two interceptions)
* Jonathan Wilhite, 7 (including two interceptions)
* Ty Warren, 6 (including four quarterback hits)
* Patrick Chung, 6 (including two sacks)
* Jerod Mayo, 5.5 (including one forced fumble)

The only defensive starter who ranks behind Mayo on that list is nose tackle Vince Wilfork -- and it's the job of Wilfork to occupy two blockers so Mayo can make plays.

This isn't meant as criticism, necessarily. For all we know, the knee injury that sidelined Mayo for a month might still be lingering, might still be hindering the explosiveness that he showed off a year ago. But if Mayo is indeed healthy, today's game against Jacksonville would be a terrific time for the second-year linebacker to start making some big plays.

Part of the reason his big-play numbers are down, after all, has been the way he's been used. He hasn't been sent after the quarterback, and he's actually played quite a few snaps in a no-man's-land zone coverage that looks something like a spy that teams employ against running quarterbacks.

The Jaguars have a running quarterback in David Garrard, the most prolific running quarterback the Patriots have faced this season. It'll fall either to Mayo or to Gary Guyton to contain Garrard and keep him either from getting around the edge or from sneaking through the defensive line.

It's been an unspectacular season for Mayo thus far.

Today would be a great time for that to change.

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Mayo not in a position to make plays

Bill Belichick hasn't always had the best defensive players.

Belichick has, however, always had a knack for putting his best defensive players in a position to make the most plays -- especially his linebackers. That's why it's so perplexing to see that Belichick hasn't put Jerod Mayo -- easily the Patriots' best linebacker and maybe the Patriots' best defensive player, period -- in a position to make plays.

The second-year linebacker finished with a team-best 12 tackles and half a sack on Sunday against Miami, but a re-examination of the game tape reveals very little in the way of the game-changing plays the Patriots need from their best defensive players.

Mayo is a run-stopping linebacker, first and foremost. He's not a pass-rusher off the edge like Tully Banta-Cain. His job is to read the gaps on either side of nose tackle Vince Wilfork and hit the running back before he can get through those gaps. The more a team runs the ball, the more chances he has to make plays.

But when a team throws the ball -- and Indianapolis, New Orleans and Miami have thrown the ball with tremendous effectiveness against the Patriots -- that leaves Mayo without a defined role. A coach like Belichick still ought to be able to put his best players in position to make an impact, but he hasn't done so thus far.

By one unofficial count, of the 53 times Chad Henne dropped back to pass, Mayo dropped into zone pass coverage 36 times. But when Mayo dropped into coverage, he normally did so in the middle of the field -- and that gave Henne freedom to throw to pick on the cornerbacks on either side. Think of it this way: Ever-improving safety Brandon Meriweather, to use a baseball term, played deep center field -- and Mayo played a shallow center field. Neither could do very much about anything Henne threw outside the hash marks on either side.

Even when Henne threw the ball inside the hash marks, Mayo didn't react in time to break up the passes. He took a step in the wrong direction on a 15-yard pass to Brian Hartline early in the second quarter, a key third-down pickup that eventually led to the Dolphins' first touchdown. Davone Bess caught a shot pass on a third-and-4 snap on the Dolphins' next drive and capitalized on a missed tackle by Mayo to run for 14 yards.

Dropping Mayo into zone coverage in the middle of the field, in effect, usually took the linebacker completely out of the play.

And in rushing on a half-dozen delayed blitzes, Mayo still found himself caught in no-man's land. On the fourth-and-6 snap that could have iced the game, an obvious passing situation, Mayo followed Henne as he rolled toward the sidelines but never made a serious effort to go after him. It was almost as if he was defending against a scramble -- something Henne has done only eight times all season. Henne had plenty of time to wait for Greg Camarillo to run his hitch route and come back to the ball -- in one-on-one coverage, of course -- for a 13-yard gain.

On a third-and-10 snap earlier in the fourth quarter, Mayo tore through his assigned gap on a delayed blitz only to see Henne throw the ball right through him -- inches from his outstretched hand -- for a 15-yard pass to Ted Ginn. Mayo had responsibility for that gap, and he failed to bat the ball down.

Mayo isn't exactly lacking in versatility. Belichick even lined him up at nose tackle -- he had his hand on the ground and everything -- on a third-and-4 snap early in the third quarter. He remains one of the game's elite run-stopping linebackers, too, as evidenced by his third-and-2 tackle of running back Lex Hilliard late in the third quarter.

But he's done his best work against the run -- and the more the Patriots' secondary struggles, the less other teams are going to run. Opponents are averaging 37.8 pass attempts in the Patriots' five losses but only 28.9 pass attempts in the Patriots' seven wins -- exactly the opposite of what you'd normally expect.

If other teams are going to keep throwing the ball against the Patriots, Belichick is going to have to find a way to turn Mayo into a playmaker when they do.

Monday, December 7, 2009

The Patriots really aren't that good

It's the popular idea today: The Patriots didn't necessarily do anything egregiously wrong in their loss at Miami on Sunday. The Patriots don't necessarily have some sort of mental block when it comes to winning on the road. The Patriots aren't necessarily gag artists who can't live up to expectations.

The Patriots might just not be all that good.

Given the numerous factors that go into winning and losing football games, it's a tough theory to try to prove. With help from our friends at ProFootballFocus.com, though, we'll give it a shot. Here's a position-by-position look -- with stats up to date entering play entering play in Week 13 and thus not including Week 13 -- at how the Patriots rank when compared to their counterparts around the NFL:

(Note: The PFF.com rankings include every aspect of the game -- meaning wide receivers are evaluated on their run-blocking as well as their pass-catching, and linebackers are evaluated on their pass coverage as well as their tackling.)

Center
1. Ryan Kalil, Carolina
2. Nick Mangold, N.Y. Jets
3. Jake Grove, Miami
13. Dan Koppen, New England

Guard
1. Jahri Evans, New Orleans
2. Steve Neal, New England
3. Carl Nicks, New Orleans
12. Logan Mankins, New England

Tackle
1. Joe Thomas, Cleveland
2. Willie Colon, Pittsburgh
3. Jake Long, Miami
5. Sebastian Vollmer, New England
14. Nick Kaczur, New England
45. Matt Light, New England

Tight end
1. Kevin Boss, N.Y. Giants
2. Jason Witten, Dallas
3. Dallas Clark, Indianapolis
18. Chris Baker, New England
33. Ben Watson, New England

Wide receiver
1. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis
2. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona
3. Vincent Jackson, San Diego
9. Wes Welker, New England
18. Randy Moss, New England
45. Sam Aiken, New England

Running back
1. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville
2. Ray Rice, Baltimore
3. Ricky Williams, Miami
9. Kevin Faulk, New England
49. Laurence Maroney, New England

Quarterback
1. Drew Brees, New Orleans
2. Brett Favre, Minnesota
3. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis
10. Tom Brady, New England

Offensive analysis: The Patriots have two players who rank among the top five at their position in the NFL. Both -- Neal and Vollmer -- were injured against Miami. Wes Welker remains a playmaking machine. Brady ranks ahead of names like Carson Palmer, Eli Manning and Joe Flacco but behind David Garrard, Kurt Warner and Matt Schaub.

3-4 defensive end
1. Justin Smith, San Francisco
2. Randy Starks, Miami
3. Corey Williams, Cleveland
11. Ty Warren, New England
(Neither Jarvis Green nor Mike Wright has played enough snaps at 3-4 end to qualify.)

Defensive tackle
1. Kevin Williams, Minnesota
2. Kelly Gregg, Baltimore
3. Vince Wilfork, New England

3-4 outside linebacker
1. DeMarcus Ware, Dallas
2. James Harrison, Pittsburgh
3. Tully Banta-Cain, New England

Inside linebacker
1. Ray Lewis, Baltimore
2. Patrick Willis, San Francisco
3. Nick Barnett, Green Bay
33. Gary Guyton, New England
39. Jerod Mayo, New England

Cornerback
1. Charles Woodson, Green Bay
2. Darrelle Revis, N.Y. Jets
3. Antoine Winfield, Minnesota
14. Leigh Bodden, New England
61. Darius Butler, New England
68. Shawn Springs, New England
81. Jonathan Wilhite, New England

Safety
1. Ed Reed, Baltimore
2. Reed Doughty, Washington
3. Nick Collins, Green Bay
14. Brandon Meriweather, New England
68. Brandon McGowan, New England

Defensive analysis: The dismal rankings of the Patriots' cornerbacks shouldn't be surprising. Whoever it is that watches film for ProFootballFocus.com, though, also is having a tough time finding impact plays made either by Mayo or McGowan. The disappearance of Mayo in particular -- he has 64 tackles in nine games this season, but raise your hand if you remember the last impact play he made -- might be one of the most under-discussed subplots of the Patriots' collapse. That might be worth a separate film breakdown and discussion in this space.

Credit should go to Tully Banta-Cain, however, who really is having a Pro Bowl-caliber year rushing the passer. Entering play Sunday, PFF.com had credited Banta-Cain with five sacks, seven hits on the quarterback and 13 pressures -- and he'd missed just two tackles all season.

Sunday, October 25, 2009

Patriots get out the bag of tricks

"The Patriots want to blitz," Phil Simms said early in the CBS broadcast of the New England-Tampa Bay game on Sunday, "and they want to put pressure on the quarterback and they want to put pressure on the short routes."

But the Patriots hadn't blitzed. All season long, with Jerod Mayo and without, the Patriots hadn't blitzed. They'd done some shifting between a 4-3 formation and a 3-4 formation while mixing in some nickel and dime, but they'd mostly stayed home and avoided the creative gambles that for so long was the hallmark of Bill Belichick defenses. Against Denver two weeks ago, with the Broncos' "Wild Horses" offense causing all sorts of problems, the Patriots did almost nothing but stay at home in their base defensive packages -- and Kyle Orton picked them apart.

On Sunday, though, the Patriots blitzed. They blitzed corners off the edge. They blitzed safeties up the middle. They blitzed linebackers from just about everywhere. They didn't blitz too much -- by the count of this reporter, they blitzed on 13 of their 36 defensive snaps in the first half -- but they blitzed enough to keep young quarterback Josh Johnson looking over his shoulder.

And while it didn't make much of a difference against the woeful Buccaneers, who would have lost big no matter what, it did demonstrate that it did demonstrate that the Patriots' new-look defense still is capable of executing the same complex defensive packages as its predecessors.

Here's a look at how the Patriots distributed their blitzes in the first half before the score started to get out of hand:

* Brandon McGowan blitzed four times;
* Jonathan Wilhite blitzed three times;
* Adalius Thomas -- remember him? -- blitzed three times;
* Wilhite and McGowan blitzed at the same time twice, including on the interception that Brandon Meriweather returned for a touchdown;
* Gary Guyton blitzed twice;
* Meriweather blitzed once, doing so in tandem with Thomas;
* Jerod Mayo blitzed once;
* Patrick Chung blitzed once;
* Leigh Bodden blitzed once.

And that's just the first half.

Oh, and the Patriots frequently lined up Tully Banta-Cain and Derrick Burgess at defensive end, flanking Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren, and both Banta-Cain and Burgess are at their best when they're going after the quarterback.

The result?

* Thomas had a quarterback hurry;
* Banta-Cain had two tackles for a loss;
* Chung had a sack and a quarterback hurry;
* Guyton had a tackle for a loss and a quarterback hurry;
* Mike Wright had a sack and a quarterback hurry;
* Myron Pryor had a quarterback hurry and a tackle for a loss;
* McGowan, Meriweather and bodden each broke up two passes.

The Patriots will face the Dolphins at Gillette Stadium in two weeks, a team that sparked the Wildcat revolution across the NFL. The Patriots weren't able to deal with the "Wild Horses" offense the Broncos threw at them, eschewing creativity in favor of conservatism.

It'll be interesting to see if they do the same against Miami.

Monday, September 14, 2009

Dramatic win overshadows Mayo injury for now

It won’t generate the hysteria another knee injury a year ago did. It won’t prompt the same sky-is-falling frenzy among fans.

Should the knee injury suffered by Jerod Mayo in any way resemble the knee injury suffered to Tom Brady, though, the Patriots’ season might similarly be already on the brink.

Even a loss to the Bills would have been a temporary setback. The Patriots could have moved past that. A season with similar defensive upheaval – notably the abrupt release of safety Lawyer Milloy -- began with a resounding defeat to Buffalo but ended with an Adam Vinatieri field goal to win the Super Bowl.

A season-ending injury to Mayo -- the worst-case scenario, sure, but a possibility nonetheless -- makes a trip to the Super Bowl far less likely.

The then-rookie out of Tennessee finished last season with a whopping 128 tackles, 10th-best in the NFL, and he also broke up four passes. Most importantly, though, he grew into a leader who quickly could fill the shoes of Tedy Bruschi and Mike Vrabel as the rock of the Patriots' defense.

But he left the game with a knee injury in the first quarter and never reappeared. He walked off the field and to the locker room under his own power -- but so too did Brady a season ago after his collision with Kansas City's Bernard Pollard.

(Patriots coach Bill Belichick, predictably, offered no insight into the severity of the injury, even smirking at the question.)

"Jerod is a great leader, a young guy, his second year in the league and a captain," fellow linebacker Pierre Woods said. "It's terrible, but you know what? We've got to keep going. He'll be back. Everybody's got to step up and continue to play hard."

Trouble is, no one on the Patriots' defense can do what Mayo does. There's a reason he plays in the middle: A team's best linebacker usually is going to play in the middle. When Mayo went down, the Patriots shifted into a three-linebacker alignment with Guyton alone in the middle for the first time in his NFL career.

That backfired when Woods, into the game alongside Guyton, found himself blocked out of his first play on the field, a 21-yard rush for Fred Jackson. Two plays later, Woods failed to chase down rookie tight end Shawn Nelson on the Bills' first touchdown.

By the fourth quarter, Guyton had moved back toward the edge. Adalius Thomas, the team's best pass-rusher, was playing middle linebacker for the first time in who knows how long.

"I really don't know," Thomas said. "I can't remember. Last year sometime? It might have been last year."

Predictably, when Trent Edwards threw a slant to Derek Schouman in one key third-quarter series, the improvising Thomas let the tight end slip from his grasp and pick up 16 yards to set up a field goal.

It’s tough to blame Thomas. The two-time Pro Bowler has made a career wreaking havoc in the backfield. Not since 2003 has he recorded fewer than five sacks in a season. In the Super Bowl against the Giants, two of his five tackles were sacks.

He even got himself a piece of Trent Edwards last night, coming late on a blitz and tossing Edwards to the ground for a 10-yard loss -- and, of course, a 15-yard penalty for tossing him to the ground too hard.

Thomas is not a run-stuffing linebacker. He’s not a tight-end-covering linebacker. He’s a pass-rushing linebacker. He did what he could, but he's still a pass-rushing linebacker.

"Your reads are just different," he said. "Your reads are different. There's a little more action, too, because you're in the middle. It ain't like when the ball is running away from you -- if the ball's run away from you on the outside, you can't get in on the action. In the middle, you're always in the action."

Pass coverage wasn't part of his job description when he arrived at the stadium on Monday afternoon. Without Mayo in the lineup, though, his job description got a little bit longer.

"That's what being a professional is about," Thomas said. "It's about being prepared. Injuries happen, and they're unfortunate. At the same time, you have to be ready for them."

The Patriots were just ready enough to weather the impact of Mayo's injury on Monday night. If it's severe enough to keep him out too much longer, though, an already thin defense might be in serious truoble.

Friday, December 19, 2008

Snow no advantage for youngest Patriots

The hoodies were out in force in the Patriots' locker room today. With bad weather expected on Sunday, Bill Belichick had his team outdoors and exposed to the elements for their final practice of the week. Center Dan Koppen had a bomber cap with ear flaps under his helmet; special-teamer Ray Ventrone, the first player out on the Gillette Stadium field for practice, looked like the Michelin Man with so many layers on under his white practice jersey.

The easy thing to do this week is to assume that the cold weather is an advantage for the home team. The Patriots, after all, play in cold weather year after year; some of their most memorable wins have come in the snow. Long snapper Lonie Paxton might be best known for the snow angel he performed in the Foxboro Stadium end zone in 2001.

But a good-sized group of Patriots have just as much experience in cold weather as the Arizona Cardinals do. More than half of their defensive players grew up either in California or south of the Mason-Dixon line.

"The guys we've got from Georgia, Auburn, Georgia Tech, Tennessee -- some of the younger guys here aren't exactly from a winter wonderland," Belichick said.

Two of those are former first-round picks Jerod Mayo (from Hampton, Va., and Tennessee) and Brandon Meriweather (from Apopka, Fla., and Miami). The two answered questions together in the Patriots' locker room today; they were joking around at first, but they got serious when the topic of cold weather came up.

"I've been here for a year, so I have a little experience, but not as much as some of the other guys do," Meriweather said. "I'm sure it'll be a little bit (of help), but not much."

Said Mayo, "I've played in cold games, but no snow. It might be a first for me. ... I'm always looking forward to another challenge, and this should be a great one."

Meriweather's best advice for the rookie?

"Dress warm," he said.

Belichick did his best to downplay the elements -- by this time in most players' careers, he said, the idea of flying to the opposite coast or playing in unfriendly elements shouldn't be a big deal at all. And if it snows, it'll affect Matt Cassel -- a native of southern California -- just as much as it affects Kurt Warner.

"These guys have all played in cold weather," Belichick said. "They've all played in these kind of situations. ... I'd be surprised if there's too many players who haven't experienced these conditions. I mean, (Cardinals wide receiver Larry) Fitzgerald went to Pitt. He's probably be in this as much as some of our players."