Monday, July 27, 2009

The lost July of the Red Sox

The Red Sox have had a horrific offensive month in July. They were even worse in June. But that doesn't mean they're going to be that bad the rest of the way. Check out their month-by-month runs-per-game numbers over the past three seasons:

April: 5.21 runs per game
May: 5.54
June: 4.15
July: 5.67
August: 5.76
September: 5.74

April: 4.69 runs per game
May: 5.31
June: 5.11
July: 4.58
August: 6.30
September: 5.27

April: 5.73 runs per game
May: 4.86
June: 5.31
July: 4.25

So far this season, the Red Sox are averaging 5.05 runs per game -- down from 5.22 runs per game a year ago and 5.35 the year before that. But this downturn in production is nothing new.

In 2007, the Red Sox averaged a measly 4.15 runs per game in June but bounced back to average more than 5.6 runs per game in each of the final three months. In 2008, the Red Sox averaged 5.11 runs per game in June and 4.58 runs per game in July but exploded with 6.30 runs per game in August.

The Red Sox are in the middle of their worst offensive month since June of 2007. But despite all but standing pat -- they added Bobby Kielty on Aug. 6 but otherwise did nothing to upgrade the team's offense -- they broke out of that particular slump in a big way down the stretch.

(For what it's worth, Jason Bay has a .869 career OPS in August and a .887 career OPS in September. A turnaround might not be far off.)

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