Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Replacing Mike Lowell: Adrian Beltre

If the Red Sox move any closer to signing Adrian Beltre to play third base and unloading Mike Lowell, you'll start to see more and more comparisons between the two. Some might even wonder if Beltre, a righthanded-hitting slugger, would put dents in the Green Monster the way Lowell has done for the past four seasons.

That, though, is not what the Red Sox would be signing Beltre to do.

Every move this season has to be examined through the lens of the criteria Theo Epstein laid out only a few days after the Angels eliminated the Red Sox from the playoffs in October:
1. The Red Sox need to get better defensively.
2. The Red Sox need to get better at hitting on the road.

Beltre would serve both purposes.

First things first: Beltre can catch the ball as well as any third baseman in the game. He ranked third in the major leagues in plus-minus this season (plus-27) and third in the major leagues with 21 runs saved on defense. In 2008, he led the major leagues with a plus-32 and with 24 runs saved.

If you accept the sabermetric idea that 10 runs saved or created equal one win, Beltre is worth more than two wins with his defense alone.

Lowell, on the other hand, saw his range drop precipitously this season in the aftermath of a hip injury, and there's no guarantee it's coming back. He finished this season with a minus-23 and was credited with minus-17 runs saved -- meaning he cost the Red Sox almost two wins with his defense alone.

Replacing Lowell with Beltre at third base turns the Red Sox from a below-average defensive team at third base to an elite defensive team at third base -- and that could mean turning a 95-win team into a 99-win team.

But fans aren't going to judge the success of a move by its impact on defense -- not for a third baseman, the type of player who's supposed to hit.

Lowell made a living driving doubles off the Green Monster -- he OPS'ed .932 at home this season -- but saw his slugging percentage drop in a big way on the road (.713). Part of the reason the Red Sox acquired him was because he fit Fenway Park so well.

Beltre wouldn't be as great of a fit for the Green Monster -- and it's easy to look at his spray chart from 2008, his last healthy season, to see why:

Beltre can hit for power to all fields -- and not just to left field.

If you look closely at the chart, there actually aren't many doubles or fly balls that the Green Monster would turn into home runs, and there might be a few doubles or home runs that the cavernous right field at Fenway Park would turn into outs.

But here's the M. Night Shyamalan twist: The Red Sox don't need a hitter who can tattoo the Green Monster. No team in the American League had a higher home slugging percentage than the Red Sox's .498, and no team in the American League scored more runs than the Red Sox's 481 -- or 5.93 per game.

The Red Sox need a hitter who can do some damage on the road.

Playing his games at Seattle's Safeco field, Beltre OPS'ed a woeful .702 at home in 2008 and .646 in 2009. On the road, though, where everything evens out, Beltre has OPS'ed .862 and .717, respectively, in the past two seasons

If you want to give Beltre a break for this season because of his injuries, it's worth pointing out that only Victor Martinez, Jason Bay and Kevin Youkilis OPS'ed better than .850 on the road for the Red Sox season.

If you don't want to give Beltre a break for this season, well, at least he'd become one of the few hitters in the Red Sox lineup who seems to be at least as comfortable cruising around the American League as he is in his home ballpark.

Oh, and Beltre has a career .534 slugging percentage at Yankee Stadium.

The biggest reason to make the investment in Beltre would be for the defensive upgrade at third base. His numbers at the plate actually are remarkably similar to those of Lowell -- and, in terms of OPS+, he's actually a little bit worse than Lowell.

But if the Red Sox are looking for someone who can hit on the road -- and, of course, for someone who can catch the ball -- Beltre might be just the guy.

Monday, November 23, 2009

A road map for Wes Welker

Boston Herald reporter Ron Borges asked a terrific question of Tom Brady after Sunday's 31-14 trouncing of the New York Jets. Darrelle Revis had all but taken Randy Moss out of the game -- his four-yard touchdown catch notwithstanding -- but the Jets, like most teams, had no answer for Wes Welker. Borges wanted to know what it was about Welker that made him so difficult to eliminate from the Patriots' offense.

Here's what Brady said:
"Well, when you line up in the slot, you have the whole field to work with. You can go short inside, short outside, long outside, long inside, you can stop at any point and you’re typically on the third DB that comes on the field. You’re a part of all the combinations with the running backs and the tight ends. It’s tough to do. You’ve got to see things very quickly. Wes is able to use his quickness to get open over the middle, in the flat, down the field.

"When you’re an outside guy, you’re usually against the better players and you have a really limited amount of field to work. So if they decide to really cover you, which [Kerry] Rhodes was typically over the top of Randy and then [Darrelle] Revis was on him – their two best players – then you’ve got to find other guys to work, and Wes really took advantage of it."

Patriots fans all know just how elusive Welker is and just how many different ways Brady can get him the ball. But we at One If By Land went back to the film to track the routes Welker ran in the first half against the Jets and get a sense for the different tactics he used to try to get open.

Here's the Welker road map -- with his eight first-half receptions highlighted as the darker lines:

And that's just in the first half.

It's easy to jump to the conclusion that opponents should start to double-team Welker and not double-team Moss.

But the Jets did that when Welker was over the middle, hitting him with linebackers and safeties when he tried to sit down in seams. They had no chance to double-team him, though, as long as he kept dodging and darting in different directions.

Sunday, November 22, 2009

Christmas comes early for Bodden

Mark Sanchez has a new favorite receiver, a speedster who always seems to know where the quarterback is going to throw the ball.

Oh, were all of those passes not intended for Leigh Bodden?

"I didn't know today was December 25th," linebacker Adalius Thomas said. "Three fair catches?"

"I think it was a conspiracy or something," linebacker Pierre Woods said. "Three wide-open fair catches -- two were on a knee, and one was right there to him and he ran it in for a touchdown."

OK, so it wasn't the most challenging day for Bodden, who picked off a career-best three passes and returned one for his first career touchdown. It certainly was a rewarding day, though, especially for a player who previously had spent his career with the Cleveland Browns and the Detroit Lions. With the win, the Patriots moved three games ahead of the New York Jets and stayed two games ahead of the Miami Dolphins for first place in the AFC East.

The three interceptions Bodden had -- the same number of catches as Jets receivers Jerricho Cotchery and Dustin Keller -- had as much to do with the victory as anything else.

A quick rundown of the three interceptions:

* First quarter: Sanchez threw behind Cotchery on a third-and-8 pass along the left sideline. It appeared as though he expected the wide receiver to run a hitch or a curl and not to cut back toward the middle of the field, but Bodden also seemed to force Cotchery out of his intended route. Whatever the reason, Bodden turned before Cotchery turned and returned the interception for a touchdown.

* Second quarter: With Brandon McGowan coming around the edge on a blitz, Sanchez threw too far in front of Braylon Edwards down the left side. Wilhite appeared to be covering Edwards with Bodden sitting back in zone coverage, and the ball just hit him in the hands.

"The first two interceptions were just poor throws," Sanchez said. "Good reads. Poor throws."

* Fourth quarter: On perhaps the worst pass he threw all day, Sanchez had no pressure on him but still somehow threw a pass so inaccurate it was tough to tell whether it was intended for Cotchery or for Edwards. If it was intended for Cotchery, it was badly overthrown. If it was intended for Edwards, it was badly underthrown. If it was intended for Bodden, well, it was perfect.

The interception Sanchez threw to Brandon Meriweather later in the fourth quarter was his worst decision of the day, a floater that would have been better off landing in the second row of the stands than anywhere on the field. That, though, was a throw made under pressure and out of desperation -- it might have been the worst decision by Sanchez all day, but it wasn't the worst pass.

"The last two were definitely bad decisions," Sanchez said, "trying to do too much and not letting the offense work for me. ... I need to be smarter and more conservative with the football in those situations."

It was Bodden, coming on a corner blitz, who applied some of the pressure on that play, too, drilling Sanchez just after he released the ball.

"I saw the ball in his right hand," Bodden said, "and I thought I was coming to get a strip sack."

As it turned out, all he was coming to get was a helping hand in the Patriots' fourth interception of the game.

The Patriots review their opponents' turnovers every Saturday. With Sanchez, they had plenty of material with which to work. The Jets' rookie quarterback now has thrown 11 interceptions in his last five games -- including five in Week 6 against Buffalo and two more in Week 10 against Jacksonville.

"He's thrown some balls to guys, so we definitely knew we could get some of those today," Bodden said. "We just have to catch them. That's what one of my old coaches always said: You've just got to catch the ones that go to you."

That's what happened on Sunday. Most of the passes the Bills and Jaguars intercepted, though, took at least a little bit of effort and athletic ability on the part of the defensive backs. The three passes Bodden picked off all were thrown pretty much right to him.

"I really can't tell you if it was accuracy or what, but (Sanchez and his wide receivers) probably weren't on the same page," said Bodden, who wore a No. 23 Michael Jordan jersey to his postgame press conference.

When a reporter asked if the No. 23 should be retired, Bodden quipped, "Not here. Not yet. I've got to get a few more three-pick games -- and then maybe."

Halftime analysis: Patriots 24, Jets 6

Leigh Bodden's two first-half interceptions -- he has as many catches as the Jets do -- are the big story early, but that's not it:

* Many prognosticators suggested that while New York cornerback Darrelle Revis could handle Randy Moss, the Jets had no one to deal with Wes Welker. They were right.

Welker has eight catches for 139 yards -- in the first half -- and has left cornerback Drew Coleman in his dust on more than a couple of occasions.

Early in the second quarter, Welker lined upon the right side of the Patriots' line next to Moss. When Moss came to a halt in his hitch route, Welker kept going -- and Coleman, Revis and Kerry Rhodes all converged on Moss. Welker waved frantically as he cruised into a wide-open seam, and Tom Brady hit him for a 43-yard gain. Laurence Maroney scored two plays later to give the Patriots a 21-0 lead.

* NFL Network's Rich Eisen tweeted midway through the second quarter, "Revis having brutal game for NYJ. In fact, the Jets may lead the league in talk not backed up."

At best, it's harsh. At worst, it's wrong. Revis actually is doing exactly what he needs to do -- and is a big part of the reason Welker has so many catches. The third-year cornerback broke up two of the first three passes thrown in the direction of Moss.

The first pass Moss caught, a four-yard touchdown pass from Brady, came on an almost instantaneous snap-and-throw that never gave Revis a chance to react. The longest pass Moss caught in the first half went for six yards.

Revis is doing his job on Moss.

* The Patriots suddenly look awfully thin on the offensive line. Second-string left tackle Sebastian Vollmer went to the sidelines with a head injury in the second quarter, and right tackle Nick Kaczur had to gut out the final play from scrimmage after Brady's helmet hit him in the knee. Rich Ohrnberger is the only reserve offensive lineman left, and one would presume Pro Bowl guard Logan Mankins would move to tackle if Kaczur is unable to go in the second half.

On the bright side, third-string left tackle Mark LeVoir promptly decimated Jets cornerback Donald Strickland on a wide-receiver screen. On the dark side -- that is the opposite of bright side, right? -- linebacker Bart Scott cruised past LeVoir to hit Brady late in the second quarter, the hit that ended up injuring Kaczur.

* Linebacker Adalius Thomas had been all but forgotten by Patriots fans. Several talk-radio hosts have insisted that Thomas is a lock to be released after the season given how disappointed Patriots coaches seem to be with his play.

Today, though, might be Thomas' best game of the season.

The linebacker started the game in place of Tully Banta-Cain, who the Patriots seemed to be easing back into things after he missed most of the Indianapolis game as well as two of the taem's three practices this week. When Banta-Cain came back into the game, it was Pierre Woods who sat down and Thomas who stayed on the field.

He dropped Shonn Green for a gain of just a yard on the Jets' first play of the second quarter, and he followed that up by drilling Mark Sanchez just as he was throwing on the very next play.

On the Jets' next series, Thomas got into the backfield to force Thomas Jones back inside and into the waiting arms of Vince Wilfork. And when the Jets gave the Wildcat a try, inserting Brad Smith at quarterback to pitch to Green, Thomas combined with Wilfork for a four-yard loss.

Neal, Green among Patriots' inactives

His name doesn't show up on the stat sheet all that often, but Stephen Neal might be the most significant of the Patriots' inactives against the Jets. The veteran right guard has been the best at his position in the NFL so far this season -- he's at his best as a run-blocker, but he's allowed just two sacks and one hit on the quarterback all season, too.

He'll be replaced by Dan Connolly, who allowed one quarterback pressure and drew negative ratings for his play in place of Neal against Indianapolis a week ago.

Sammy Morris, too, remains inactive with a knee injury. It'll be the fourth straight game Morris has missed -- and his physical running style is something the Patriots could have used in their short-yardage situations against Indianapolis a week ago. Some had expected Morris to return based on his participation in practice this week, but he'll instead spend the afternoon in street clothes.

The Patriots' defense, though, received some good news: Both Tully Banta-Cain and Ty Warren are active despite injuries that limited them in practice this week. Banta-Cain didn't practice at all until Friday thanks to the groin injury that knocked him out in the first quarter against the Colts, and Warren missed the Colts game with an ankle injury.

The rotation along the defensive line will be interesting to watch: Warren is and has always been a starter, but the Patriots seem to be liking the play of rookie Myron Pryor more and more. It wouldn't be surprising to see Pryor, Wilfork and Warren all on the field at the same time in a 3-4 scheme -- or for Pryor and Wilfork to play together at defensive tackle with Banta-Cain and Derrick Burgess flanking them.

One moderate surprise: Veteran cornerback Shawn Springs participated fully in practice all week and was listed as probable on the injury report, a sign a player is almost certainly going to play. The scratch might or might not be related to injury -- and it might be a sign of how far down on the depth chart Springs has fallen in the Patriots' defensive backfield.

Springs had his worst game of the season against Miami two weeks ago and was not active against Indianapolis. He's also not going to contribute as much on special teams as the younger and faster Terrence Wheatley, another possible reason for the decision.

Wilhite has put loss to Colts behind him

Jonathan Wilhite isn't going to pretend that he can ignore plays at will, that he'd completely forgotten the game-winning touchdown catch he surrendered to Reggie Wayne by the time he got on the plane in Indianapolis late Sunday night.

"You wouldn't be a football player if you didn't think about it," the second-year cornerback said. "Wayne made a good catch, and Peyton (Manning) made a good throw. It happens in football."

A cornerback, though, has to have a short memory -- and the Patriots do short memory as well as anyone.

"You can't succeed without it," Wilhite said. "If you're worried about what happened (last) week, that means you're not giving the Jets your full attention."

The Jets certainly merit attention.

Wide receivers Jerricho Cotchery and Braylon Edwards both are averaging better than 15.0 yards per reception this season. Cotchery has more receiving yards against the Patriots than any other team in the NFL. (He's averaging 56.1 yards per game against the Patriots -- and just 45.6 yards per game against Buffalo and 35.4 yards per game against Miami.)

Edwards has brought a new dimension to the Jets' offense that wasn't there in Week 2, a big and physical wide receiver who can outmuscle smaller cornerbacks.

"He's a good receiver -- I knew that since I watched him in college," Wilhite said. "He can stretch the field, and he can make big plays."

The job of Wilhite will be to limit those big plays.

According to the film analysis experts at ProFootballFocus.com, Wilhite hasn't made a positive impact in pass coverage since Week 5 at Denver. His minus-3.7 mark overall ranks him 67th among cornerbacks in the NFL -- and behind Leigh Bodden and Darius Butler among cornerbacks on the Patriots.

He's become one of the team's top cornerbacks, but he wasn't exactly satisfied with the way he handled Manning and Wayne a week ago.

"All you can do is try to make a play," Wilhite said. "Sometimes, you're not going to always be in good position to try to make plays, but we did that. We just didn't make enough plays."

Revis-Moss a key matchup today

Whether he had help from his safeties in Week 2 or not – something that became a point of contention in a conference call with reporters this week – it’s clear that New York Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis has no doubt he can cover Randy Moss one-on-one.

Both Moss and Patriots coach Bill Belichick have suggested that Revis limited the Patriots’ best vertical receiver to four catches for a season-low 24 yards mostly because he had help in the secondary. Revis, though, has the skills to shut down Moss one-on-one – and his ability to do so today might be the difference in the game.

“They know how we’re going to line him up,” Jets coach Rex Ryan said. “They know how we’re going to play him. Darrelle Revis gives us an opportunity on defense to do what other defenses can’t do and that’s to really get after it. He’s a special player. He doesn’t back down from any challenge, and obviously Randy Moss is a huge challenge.”

It’s almost impossible for opponents to double-team both Moss and Wes Welker, receivers with vastly different styles, without leaving virtually all the Patriots’ other weapons unguarded. If Revis can defend Moss by himself, though, he frees up a safety to double-team Welker or a linebacker to go after Tom Brady.

Most cornerbacks can’t handle Moss one-on-one.

Revis, however, is not most cornerbacks.

“Randy Moss is the best vertical receiver in football,” Ryan said. “We have the best corner in football.”

According to the film analysts at ProFootballFocus.com, only New Orleans’ Jabari Greer has had the ball thrown in his direction as often as Revis while allowing a smaller percentage of completions. Quarterbacks throwing the ball in his direction have a rating of 47.5 – which is less than the rating Oakland’s JaMarcus Russell had before he was benched this week.

The 63-yard touchdown pass Moss caught from Brady against Indianapolis was just another example of what it takes to defend Moss one-on-one.

Revis, though, is unique in his ability to do just that – no matter what Moss or Belichick might say.

“Everyone saw the game,” Revis said. “Everybody knows I was in man coverage. That was the case. (Moss) is supposed to say that because (that day) wasn’t his day. He got shut out and was frustrated about it, which is cool. I don’t have anything against him. I still think he’s one of the best receivers in the league. When we go up against each other, it’s great competition.”

Friday, November 20, 2009

Top prospect Kalish just keeps on keeping on

Outfielder Josh Reddick entered the consciousness of casual Red Sox fans a year ago when he made the jump from Double-A to the major leagues to make some appearances in the Red Sox outfield.

Ryan Kalish might be next in line.

The Red Sox drafted Kalish in the ninth round in 2006, the same season in which they drafted Reddick in the 17th round and Lars Anderson in the 18th round. Much like with Anderson, the Red Sox took a flier on a top talent who was considered a solid commit to a big-time college -- Kalish had a chance to play both football and baseball at Virginia -- and lured him to sign with a six-figure signing bonus.

Kalish jumped from Single-A to Double-A this season and just wrapped up a stint in the Arizona Fall League in which he hit .301 with a .384 on-base percentage in 73 at-bats. I caught up with him on the phone on Tuesday, a couple of days before his Mesa Solar Sox finished their season.

What's the biggest thing you've learned out in Arizona?
It’s just the level of competition you have to keep up with. There are so many good players out here. It shows you you need to work harder –- or try to work harder –- than everybody else. I’m seeing things I only see sometimes during the regular season. Every player has a chance to do something extremely special every time they come up or are on the mound. That’s the level of competition I’m dealing with, so I just have to keep working hard.

Was that a surprise or is that what you expected?
That’s what I came here expecting. Honestly, I’ve always known there were good players out there, and I’ve always known I had to work hard. This just reiterates the fact that it’s really true.

Did you have a certain focus for what you wanted to accomplish out there?
Well, I did what I needed to do during the season. Coming out here, I just wanted to have continued success – and I don’t look at my success by numbers. I look at success by my at-bats, like if I am seeing the ball well. Every single day, I’m seeing a No. 1 or a No. 2 or a really good reliever out of the pen, and that can only be a benefit for next year. Aaron Bates and Josh Reddick struggled here. It’s a testament to them that they came back this year -– and look at what happened to them in getting to the big leagues. For me, it’s not the success. It’s the experience. They’re both great players, but this helped them get to the big leagues. I’m positive of that.

Is there anything you specifically wanted to work on?
I just wanted to keep it up. The things I was working on during the season are never going to change. You’re always going to see flaws in the things you do, and you’ve got to be able to pick them out. My goal is to keep continuing to get better on the things I did this year. I haven’t changed anything. I’ve been having some pretty good at-bats over the past few weeks, and it’s been a tough thing for me here because you sometimes get two or three days off in a row before you go out there and play. It’s tough to keep a rhythm that way. But that’s just aprt of this league. I don’t think many people are looking so much at the numbers as the experience.

Is it difficult, after a long season, to still play at a high level like this in November?
Well, I played in Hawaii last year. It’s about how much you want it, really. You’re going to have to come out here with the drive and want to keep it up. You’ve got to keep going, and you’ve got to keep moving. There are guys playing in the Dominican and Venezuela who are in the same boat. That’s part of the experience. I don’t spend a lot of time at home in the offseason – and especially when you’re a so-called prospect, you’re not going to be home as much.

Have you been able to pick up anything playing with the guys in other organizations on your roster?
Meeting Bryan Peterson, he and I have really struck it off well. I’ve gotten a lot of things from him, and we’ve given each other some things. I always like to meet new people because we can just pick up little things from each other. We’ve talked about some little things at the plate. It’s nothing like, ‘I don’t like your swing,’ because we have totally different ways of hitting. But it’s all about getting better at the game. He’s leading the league in average, I think, and to make friends with a guy like that, we’ve helped each other get better.

(When this interview was conducted, Peterson was leading the league in hitting. The Florida Marlins prospect finished the Arizona Fall League season with a .379 batting average, fourth among all hitters out there.)

In the outfield, he’s helped me with my throwing. I’ve had a couple of people tell me that my arm looks a little bit stronger, and the things we’ve talked about have increased my arm strength.

When do you have those conversations? Is it in the cage or during outfield drills or during games?
It’s the whole time – during our throwing program when we’re getting loose before a game or when we’re taking infield and outfield. It’s an all-the-time thing. During the game, I’ll go up to him and ask him, ‘Hey, do you think that was the right play?’ He’ll tell me straight up. People are going to be out there trying to help me, but some people fish for compliments – and we’re straight up with each other. He comes up to me and asks, ‘Do you think that’s a strike?’, maybe, on a pitch he took. I’ll tell him, ‘Yeah, I think it was.’

When you look back at yourself as a player a year ago and compare it to yourself as a player now, what's the biggest difference?
I had a more aggressive approach than it used to be. Between 2008 and 2009, my strikeout numbers stayed the same. My ratio in 2009 was actually a little bit better –- well, you can check that out. But I had a more aggressive approach. This year, I was trying to drive the ball more. In 2008, I was just trying to make contact and flick balls over the infielders’ heads. I had more of a mental approach this year where, ‘If I see this pitch, I’m going to absolutely destroy it,’ and that definitely helps me. My power went up this year, and, hopefully, that will continue.

You've only hit one home run in Arizona. Is there anything you can attribute that to, or is that something you don't worry about?
It might be the competition. It might be not getting into a rhythm. But I’m not really worried about it. It’s just an experience.

You told Baseball Prospectus that your teammates call you a caveman because of the way you try not to think too much. Where does that come from?
A lot of it comes from my approach as a football player. If you get caught in the numbers – your failure rate is going to be more than your success rate, so I just feel like I’ve got to go out there and try to attack the pitch and drive the ball. It’s difficult going out there and always looking up at the scoreboard and seeing what I’m doing. That’s not who I am as a player. I want to go up to the plate and think about hitting the ball hard – if it goes over the fence or goes back to the pitcher. It’s not about hits. If you just think about hits, you’re not going to succeed in this game.

That seems like it could be easier said than done. How do you make that happen?
For me, I’m really good at it just because this is a game. I’m playing baseball for a living. It’s not that having a desk job would stink, but in my life, I’m not ready for that. There are guys fighting a war in Iraq, and it’s like, ‘Really? We’re playing a game. It’s not that big of a deal.’ I’m really enjoying everything, and if I keep things in perspective, it’s pretty easy not to get caught up in all the numbers.

What do you feel like you have to do to make the type of jump that Josh Reddick made last year?
The same exact thing I did this year. I’ve been keeping it simple, and that’s what I want to do. I want to stick with my aggressive approach. You’re always going to have adjustments to your swing, but I want to continue to have the success I had last year. My focus is to keep it up exactly the way it’s been going.

What's the plan from here? What do you do the rest of the winter?
It’s been a long season, but while I’ve been out here, my lifting schedule – all of my working out has been a little bit lax because we don’t really have a gym. I’m going to live in the weight room as soon as I get home. I’m going to take three or four weeks from all baseball activity, but as soon as I get home, I’m living in the gym for 24 hours. I’m going to get strengthened up and get my speed going, do my speed work. I want to be able to play all three positions at all times, and you have to be fast to play center field. I’ll be working out hard.

Is that different from last year, or is that something you usually do?
It’s the same thing as last year. I didn’t really take any time off coming out of Hawaii. I did some light workouts while I was there, but this year, it’s the same thing – I’ll go home and get strong and get fast and get ready for the season.

Thursday, November 19, 2009

Former QBs thriving as WRs for Patriots

Julian Edelman doesn't mind talking trash with Isaiah Stanback.

"We've talked the experience of playing quarterback," Edelman said, "and we have that little competitive edge: 'I can throw the ball better than you."

But while the Patriots' two former quarterbacks have different roles at wide receiver -- Edelman is more of an inside receiver while Stanback is more of an outside guy -- both have the similar advantage of having seen the field from the perspective of the passer.

"(Stanback) has a better than average feel for how to come open, when to come open on certain routes and what the quarterback’s looking at," Belichick said. (He was asked specifically about Stanback, but he could have just as easily have been talking about Edelman.) "For anybody that’s played quarterback, you know it doesn’t really help you for a receiver to come open when either you can’t or you’re not ready to throw them him the ball. ...

"On the other hand, it’s better if a receiver is open when you are ready to throw regardless if it’s the exact route that you’re trying to run. Maybe it’s a little bit shorter, maybe it’s a little bit wider, maybe it’s not perfect -- but if he’s open at the right time, that’s a lot better than being open at the wrong time. There’s a sense of timing and spacing that an instinctive player at both of those positions understands and does."

Edelman, for his part, brushed off the idea that he was a more instinctive wide receiver because he'd played quarterback in college.

"It helps, but this isn't college," Edelman said. "This is a different level. I'm still learning every day. I have a lot to learn."

He's doing just fine so far.

The touchdown pass he caught in the second quarter against Indianapolis, in fact, might be the best evidence of those instincts. Edelman lined up in the slot and ran a route that took him toward the sideline -- but when Robert Mathis beat right tackle Nick Kaczur to get some pressure on Tom Brady, Edelman broke out his route and did whatever he could to get open for his quarterback.

Here's what the initial routes looked like for the Patriots' four wide receivers on the field:

When Mathis got into the backfield, though, Edelman cut back away from the sideline and sprinted back toward the middle of the field, a yard or two deep in the end zone. It almost certainly was not where he was supposed to be based on the way the play was designed -- but it was exactly where he was supposed to be based on what his quarterback needed:

Stanback actually broke off his route first and made the same sprint across the middle. Brady, though, still was shaking off Mathis and wasn't yet ready to throw. But when both Colts' safeties went with Stanback, anticipating a pass to him, and that left Edelman with an opening on the left side of the field.

It was just the way you'd expect two quarterbacks to play wide receiver -- getting open any way they could.

Edelman and Stanback weren't the only two wide receivers to break off their routes to get open, of course. Wes Welker initially cut to the outside but drifted back into the middle of the field, finding a seam six or seven yards past the line of scrimmage.

The ability of Welker to find gaps in the defense fits naturally with the instincts of Edelman and Stanback to get open. The Patriots didn't have that in Week 2 against the Jets, and it'll help Brady immensely to have two instinctive slot receivers when the Jets throw their blitzes at him.

"It's great to play with Wes Welker," Edelman said. "Just watching him every day in practice and seeing him in the game, a lot of the (defensive) guys go to him, and it opens you up because he's such a huge part of our offense."

And Edelman, who drew comparisons to Welker before he ever took the field for the Patriots, has mad sure to pick up everything he can from one of the NFL's most productive receivers.

"Little things, like how he practices -- watching a guy go 100 miles an hour every time in practice so he can be used to going that fast," Edelman said. "How he recognizes the defense. How he runs a route a certain way here and there -- and how he runs it differently the next time. Things like that are how you get better because you're learning new stuff, and you're seeing him do different things."

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Red Sox face Rule V draft deadline

With the Rule V draft scheduled for Dec. 10, SoxProspects.com offered a detailed look today at the decisions the Red Sox face with their 40-man roster. The Red Sox have until Friday to add minor leaguers with four years of professional experience -- in most cases, anyway -- to their 40-man roster to protect them from being selected by other teams.

Most of the names on the list, of course, aren't players whose departure would devastate Red Sox fans. Most of the top prospects in the Red Sox system either already are on the 40-man roster -- i.e. Felix Doubront -- or will be by the time they have four full seasons of professional experience.

A handful of intriguing names, though, could be out there if the Red Sox don't deem them worthy of taking up a spot on their 40-man roster:

* Randor Bierd (SP): The righty had a 4.55 ERA in 25 appearances at Triple-A Pawtucket this season, his first in the Red Sox organization. He pitched mostly out of the bullpen with the PawSox but has made seven starts in the Arizona Fall League, compiling a 6.04 ERA for the Mesa Solar Sox. If the Red Sox sent him to Arizona to decide whether or not they'd be protecting him, well, they might do the same

* Bryce Cox (RP): A former third-round pick in 2006, Cox had a 2.88 ERA at Double-A Portland this season -- but, as a 24-year-old in Double-A, he's edging closer and closer to non-prospect territory. It seems unlikely that the Red Sox would use a spot on their 40-man roster for a 24-year-old relief pitcher who hasn't yet thrown a pitch in Triple-A.

* Zac Daeges (OF): An ankle injury all but ruined last season for Daeges, but he already was a 25-year-old playing in Triple-A for the first time. He's hit everywhere he's gone -- his career on-base percentage in the minor leagues is .411 -- and if the Red Sox see him as a late-blooming on-base machine in the mold of Kevin Youkilis, you'd better believe they'll hang onto him.

* Jorge Jimenez (3B): The 25-year-old corner infielder hit a career-best 13 home runs this season for Double-A Portland, but he doesn't seem to have the power you'd normally expect from a third baseman in the major leagues. That could work to the advantage of the Red Sox, as teams don't traditionally spend Rule V picks on corner infielders who don't yet hit for much power.

* Kris Johnson (SP): A former first-round draft pick, the righty went to spring training with the Red Sox last spring on the heels of a season in which he had a 3.63 ERA at Double-A Portland. But he endured a disastrous season this season. He had a 6.35 ERA in 25 starts split between Double-A Portland and Triple-A Pawtucket, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio was little better than 1.5.

* Richie Lentz (RP): The Red Sox sent the 25-year-old Lentz to Arizona this fall to give him a chance to bounce back from a season in which he had a 6.75 ERA at Double-A Portland thanks in large part to an exceptionally high walk rate. So far in Arizona, Lentz has a 1.98 ERA and a 13-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 13 2/3 innings pitched, but that means the Red Sox have to decide whether his high walk numbers this season are any more or less fluky than his impressive numbers with the Mesa Solar Sox.

* Yamaico Navarro (SS): The most likely candidate to be protected, Navarro hit .319 and OBP'ed .373 as a 22-year-old at Single-A Salem last season and could be a factor in the team's future plans at either shortstop or third base. If the Red Sox add him to their roster, he could be a late-season promotion this season -- think Gil Velazquez in seasons past.

No time, no chance

Check out Tuesday's Union Leader for a look at how the pressure brought by Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis forced the Patriots to speed up their tempo in the second half -- and the part the pressure played in the game-changing fourth-and-2 stop.

According to unofficial stopwatch work done by this reporter, Brady averaged 2.33 seconds between the snap and the release of the ball on his six drop-backs in the first quarter. He averaged 1.76 seconds from snap to release on his 12 drop-backs in the fourth quarter.

Even when the Patriots went to the play-action in the fourth quarter, they did so with short passes in mind -- two screen passes to Wes Welker and a short completion to Welker in the flat.

Brady held the ball for 3.4 seconds -- again, obviously, an unofficial number -- when he hit Randy Moss for a deep pass to set up the Patriots' first touchdown in the first quarter.

That was a luxury he didn't have in the fourth quarter. He held the ball for 1.8 seconds on the third-down incompletion in the direction of Welker, and he held the ball for 1.4 seconds on the fourth-down pass to Faulk that came up short of the yellow line.

If he'd held the ball for any longer, though, he'd have been drilled -- keep an eye on Freeney at the top of the screen during the game's decisive play.

No time. No chance.

Monday, November 16, 2009

Leftover lessons from Patriots-Colts

While the vultures circle around Bill Belichick this week -- even as evidence suggests he might have actually been playing the percentages after all -- it's easy to overlook some of the other lessons we learned during the Patriots' 35-34 loss in Indianapolis:

* The Colts can't defend Randy Moss. The Jets (with Darrelle Revis, the best cover corner in the NFL) remain a tough matchup for Moss. But the Colts' rookie corners had no chance to cover Moss deep -- as evidenced by his 63-yard touchdown reception -- and gave no indication they'd have any chance to do better if the two teams met again.

* The Patriots can defend Dallas Clark. Brandon McGowan did quite a bit of it. Darius Butler and Patrick Chung did their part, too. It was a total team effort, but the Patriots made the Colts' star tight end a virtual non-factor. Clark caught four passes for 65 yards, but he also was virtually invisible during the second and third quarters of the game.

* The Patriots can't necessarily defend Clark and Reggie Wayne at the same time. Credit has to go, of course, to Wayne and Peyton Manning. A couple of the passes Wayne caught were perfect throws from Manning, and there was nothing the Patriots' corners could have done. But the Patriots focused quite a bit on Clark, and that allowed Wayne to run free a little bit.

If they had a Revis-type cover corner, they could afford to do that, but they don't: Leigh Bodden ranked 23rd among cornerbacks entering play Sunday, according to ProFootballFocus.com, and while he's been a huge upgrade on Ellis Hobbs and Deltha O'Neal, he got beat clean by Pierre Garcon in the third quarter for a touchdown.

* The Patriots are getting dangerously thin along the line of scrimmage. Bill Belichick had no update Monday on the head injury suffered by Stephen Neal during Sunday's second half, but if Neal misses any length of time, the Patriots could be in trouble. Center Dan Koppen was a game-day decision on Sunday, and left tackle Matt Light now has missed a month with a knee injury. Neal might be the most difficult to replace, though: He entered the weekend as the best offensive guard in football.

On the other side, Jarvis Green and Ty Warren both were deactivated against the Colts, and pass-rushing linebacker Tully Banta-Cain left the game in the first quarter with a knee injury. The emergence of Myron Pryor and the steadiness of Mike Wright mitigates the issue a little bit, but the Patriots are running out of bodies to play alongside star nose tackle Vince Wilfork.

(This has less to do with the line of scrimmage, but did anyone notice how little Adalius Thomas did in the game even after Banta-Cain and journeyman Rob Ninkovich -- the Patriots' first two options at outside linebacker, apparently -- were injured?)