The Red Sox finished last season with a bullpen ERA of 3.80, second-best in the American League behind the Oakland Athletics' 3.54 and well below the American League average of 4.17. The same group returns intact this season and will be expected to put up similar numbers.
It's fair to wonder, though, if it will.
The Red Sox bullpen looked like one of the best in baseball last season mostly because its pitchers stranded 71 percent of inherited runners last season, second-best in the American League. Only the Yankees (73 percent) were better. The American League average was 66 percent.
That number might not be sustainable. While the American League average has held steady around 66 percent over the last few seasons, the Red Sox strand percentage has bounced around quite a bit:
2009: 71 percent
2008: 68 percent
2007: 77 percent
2006: 62 percent
2005: 61 percent
2004: 66 percent
The smart money has the Red Sox bullpen's strand rate regressing to the mean this season.
"When we had guys on base and guys in scoring position, we actually pitched really well last year," Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein told WEEI this morning. "That’s the type of thing that you can’t really count on year after year."
This is where Epstein's idea of "clutch pitching" comes into play. Stranding inherited runners often can be a byproduct of luck -- or, as Epstein made clear earlier this offseason, lousy defense. One reason Epstein made it a point to upgrade his defense was the fact that he couldn't realistically expect his relivers to pitch as "clutch" as they had last season.
ERA can be a bad way to evaluate relief pitchers because so many outside factors contribute. If a reliever enters a game with a runner on second and promptly gives up an RBI single, that run isn't charged to his record. If a reliever leaves a game with the bases loaded but the next pitcher strikes out the side, no runs are charged to his record.
As elite as the Red Sox bullpen seemed to be last season, its individual pitchers didn't exactly stand out in the statistical categories that have nothing to do with inherited runners:
Strikeout-to-walk ratio (min. 45 IP)
16. Jonathan Papelbon, 3.17
20. Daniel Bard, 2.86
23. Hideki Okajima, 2.52
48. Ramon Ramirez, 1.63
65. Manny Delcarmen, 1.29
(In case you're wondering, there were 67 relievers who qualified.)
Walks and hits per inning pitched
19. Jonathan Papelbon, 1.147
27. Hideki Okajima, 1.262
30. Daniel Bard, 1.277
36. Ramon Ramirez, 1.335
60. Manny Delcarmen, 1.642
Opponents' on-base plus slugging (OPS)
11. Jonathan Papelbon, .600
29. Daniel Bard, .690
34. Hideki Okajima, .704
36. Ramon Ramirez, .711
56. Manny Delcarmen, .796
Other than Papelbon -- and this is the same Papelbon, don't forget, who allowed more baserunners than usual -- the Red Sox bullpen was a middle-of-the-pack team in all three of the above categories. Manny Delcarmen and Ramon Ramirez both finished the season in the bottom half of the American League in WHIP and opponents' OPS, and not one Red Sox reliever finished in the top 10 in any of the above categories.
The revamped Red Sox defense, it seems, wasn't just about the starting pitchers. The revamped Red Sox defense might be a big help to the bullpen, too.
Showing posts with label pitching. Show all posts
Showing posts with label pitching. Show all posts
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Saturday, January 9, 2010
Only "fine-tuning" left for Red Sox bullpen
For all of the ups and downs the Red Sox endured a year ago, the bullpen remained a virtual constant throughout. Sure, there were exceptions -- a miserable night in late June in Baltimore and an even worse afternoon in early October at Fenway Park come to mind -- but Terry Francona's bullpen tended to do its job as well as any in the American League.
Only the Oakland Athletics finished the season with a better bullpen ERA (3.54) than the Red Sox (3.80) -- though, to play devil's advocate, the Red Sox were a middle-of-the-pack team in the American League in walks and hits per inning pitched (WHIP) and strikeout-to-walk ratio as well as opponents' OPS.
Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner since have departed, both to the Atlanta Braves. Before you overstate the loss of Saito and Wagner, though, consider that the two combined to pitch 69 1/3 innings last season -- a tick less than the total Ramon Ramirez compiled by himself.
There certainly appears to be space to add another proven arm -- a Kiko Calero, for example, whose high strikeout rate might appeal to the Red Sox -- but general manager Theo Epstein said on Friday he doesn't see himself making anything but minor moves to fortify his bullpen.
"We're comfortable where we are," Epstein said. "There may be an opportunity to do some fine-tuning, to add a guy on a non-roster deal or a buy-low-type thing. We'll see what the market bears. But we're pretty comfortable with where we are. The first five guys are probably pretty obvious."
In case it's not obvious, those first five:
* Daniel Bard (R)
* Manny Delcarmen (R)
* Hideki Okajima (L)
* Jonathan Papelbon (R)
* Ramon Ramirez (R)
If the Red Sox go with a 12-man pitching staff, that leaves two spots to fill. One of those, barring an injury, might have to be devoted to a starting pitcher -- likely knuckleballer Tim Wakefield.
"We have six starters, so if everybody is healthy, we may have to save a spot for one of the starters," Epstein said.
The last spot, the spot Saito filled for much of the season, remains up in the air. Veteran righty Scott Atchison signed a one-year contract to come back from Japan, and former starter Boof Bonser was acquired from Minnesota to see if his live arm could translate to the bullpen. Young lefty Dustin Richardson likewise could be a factor -- especially after recording more than a strikeout an inning in a season split between Double-A and Triple-A a year ago.
Michael Bowden can't be dismissed as an option, either. Bowden likely will open the season as a starting pitcher at Triple-A -- the No. 7 starter, if you will -- but might have a better future as a reliever than as a starter.
Bonser is a particularly intriguing option. Much like Justin Masterson over the past couple of seasons, Bonser could have the ability to pitch multiple innings either in a mop-up role or in a game that hasn't yet been decided. The righty missed all of last season with a torn labrum and rotator cuff, but the Twins already had begun converting him to the bullpen.
Bonser had a 5.88 ERA in 35 relief appearances in 2008, but that ERA belies an arm that struck out better than a hitter an inning and accumulated a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.44 -- numbers that compare favorably with any pitcher in the Red Sox bullpen.
(A BABIP of .374 in those 35 appearances didn't help him much.)
"He looked good in the bullpen in short stints when healthy," Epstein said. "He had significant surgery, but he checked out really well in our physical. We're excited to see him in the spring."
Only the Oakland Athletics finished the season with a better bullpen ERA (3.54) than the Red Sox (3.80) -- though, to play devil's advocate, the Red Sox were a middle-of-the-pack team in the American League in walks and hits per inning pitched (WHIP) and strikeout-to-walk ratio as well as opponents' OPS.
Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner since have departed, both to the Atlanta Braves. Before you overstate the loss of Saito and Wagner, though, consider that the two combined to pitch 69 1/3 innings last season -- a tick less than the total Ramon Ramirez compiled by himself.
There certainly appears to be space to add another proven arm -- a Kiko Calero, for example, whose high strikeout rate might appeal to the Red Sox -- but general manager Theo Epstein said on Friday he doesn't see himself making anything but minor moves to fortify his bullpen.
"We're comfortable where we are," Epstein said. "There may be an opportunity to do some fine-tuning, to add a guy on a non-roster deal or a buy-low-type thing. We'll see what the market bears. But we're pretty comfortable with where we are. The first five guys are probably pretty obvious."
In case it's not obvious, those first five:
* Daniel Bard (R)
* Manny Delcarmen (R)
* Hideki Okajima (L)
* Jonathan Papelbon (R)
* Ramon Ramirez (R)
If the Red Sox go with a 12-man pitching staff, that leaves two spots to fill. One of those, barring an injury, might have to be devoted to a starting pitcher -- likely knuckleballer Tim Wakefield.
"We have six starters, so if everybody is healthy, we may have to save a spot for one of the starters," Epstein said.
The last spot, the spot Saito filled for much of the season, remains up in the air. Veteran righty Scott Atchison signed a one-year contract to come back from Japan, and former starter Boof Bonser was acquired from Minnesota to see if his live arm could translate to the bullpen. Young lefty Dustin Richardson likewise could be a factor -- especially after recording more than a strikeout an inning in a season split between Double-A and Triple-A a year ago.
Michael Bowden can't be dismissed as an option, either. Bowden likely will open the season as a starting pitcher at Triple-A -- the No. 7 starter, if you will -- but might have a better future as a reliever than as a starter.
Bonser is a particularly intriguing option. Much like Justin Masterson over the past couple of seasons, Bonser could have the ability to pitch multiple innings either in a mop-up role or in a game that hasn't yet been decided. The righty missed all of last season with a torn labrum and rotator cuff, but the Twins already had begun converting him to the bullpen.
Bonser had a 5.88 ERA in 35 relief appearances in 2008, but that ERA belies an arm that struck out better than a hitter an inning and accumulated a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.44 -- numbers that compare favorably with any pitcher in the Red Sox bullpen.
(A BABIP of .374 in those 35 appearances didn't help him much.)
"He looked good in the bullpen in short stints when healthy," Epstein said. "He had significant surgery, but he checked out really well in our physical. We're excited to see him in the spring."
Monday, November 30, 2009
A handful of options for the Red Sox bullpen
As much as we're all focused on who will play left field and shortstop and third base next season, it's important to remember the part of the roster with which Theo Epstein had the most success last season -- and thus the part of the roster he'll undoubtedly try to tweak once again this winter: The bullpen.
Jonathan Papelbon almost certainly will be back. Hideki Okajima has been as consistent as it gets over the last few years. Daniel Bard is an up-and-coming flamethrower -- though no one in this particular neighborhood is completely convinced he's not going to be a starting pitcher at some point. Manny Delcarmen endured his rockiest season. Ramon Ramirez was untouchable in April and May but very touchable in August and September. Takashi Saito has been outrighted off the 40-man roster and likely won't be back. A endless cast of characters rotated through the final spot in the bullpen once Justin Masterson was traded to Cleveland.
(Postscript: And now Billy Wagner is gone, on his way to Atlanta to become the Braves' new closer.)
All of that means Epstein has to be surveying the free-agent market -- between phone calls to Jason Bay's agent, of course -- to see who might be an upgrade on what he has:
Kiko Calero: Even including a miserable season in 2007, the 34-year-old righty has a career 3.24 ERA in 312 appearances out of the bullpen. A year ago, he had a 1.95 ERA and struck out better than a batter an inning and allowed just one home run in 60 innings pitched. His career walk rate is a tick above the major-league average, but so too is his strikeout rate.
Even better: He won't cost a draft pick.
Octavio Dotel: The 36-year-old righty isn't a closer anymore, but he had a 3.55 ERA in 129 1/3 innings spanning two seasons with the White Sox, striking out more than a hitter an inning in both of his years in Chicago. The injury issues that plagued him in Oakland, New York, Kansas City and Atlanta seem to be behind him, and he's evolving as a pitcher: He added a cutter to his repertoire last season.
The downside to Dotel is that he's a Type A free agent who would require the forfeiture of a first-round pick -- though if the Red Sox signed both Dotel and Marco Scutaro, one of the two would mean forfeiting only a second-round pick. Heck, if the Red Sox sign Matt Holliday, they'd only lose a third-round pick for either Dotel or Scutaro.
Mike Gonzalez: Like Wagner, this lefty almost certainly will be looking for job where he can close. (The Pirates, the team with whom he had an All-Star caliber year in 2006, reportedly are interested.) If he doesn't find that, though, he could be a perfect replacement for Wagner in front of Papelbon in the Red Sox bullpen. Gonzalez had a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.85 in his last two seasons in Atlanta, and both righties and lefties have OPS'ed less than .650 against him in his career. Like Dotel, he's a Type A free agent.
Kevin Gregg: Another Type A free agent, the former Cubs and Marlins closer endured a rocky season (4.72 ERA) en route to losing his job at the back end of the bullpen. He has, however, allowed just 14 percent of inherited runners to score in the last two seasons -- even if his walk rate has been above the major-league average in each of the last three seasons.
Brandon Lyon: The righty once traded for Curt Schilling had a 2.86 ERA in setup duty with Detroit this season thanks in large part to a ground ball-to-fly ball ratio well above the major-league average. He allowed inherited runners to score at a less-than-impressive 36 percent clip last season, but his strikeout rate has increased in each of the last two seasons.
Justin Miller: The former disappointment with Toronto has a 3.65 ERA and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.15 over his past three seasons in Florida and San Francisco. His 3.18 ERA last season might be something of a mirage, though, given his K/BB ratio of 1.33, his BABIP of .248 and his inherited runners strand rate of 30 percent.
Chan Ho Park: At one time a devastating free-agent signing in Texas -- the Rangers gave him a $65 million contract after the 2001 season -- Park reinvented himself as a relief pitcher with the Dodgers and Phillies. His strikeout rate is right around the major-league average (7.9 per nine innings last season) but his walk rate is impressive (3.6) and has dropped significantly since his lousy years as a starter. One possible snag: Park told The Korea Times earlier this month that he wants to be a starting pitcher again.
B.J. Ryan: The closer cast off by the Blue Jays last season saw his strikeout rate plummet and his walk rate skyrocket during his years in Toronto, a warning sign for any team interested in him. During his heyday, however, he had a strikeout-to-walk rate around 4.0 and had a sub-3.00 ERA as recently as two seasons ago. The Blue Jays still owe him $10 million next season, so he might come cheap as a flier if he's interested in a chance to redeem himself as a setup man.
Rafael Soriano: There are reports that the Red Sox have requested medical records on the Braves' hard-throwing closer, a 30-year-old with a career 2.92 ERA and strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.51. A year ago, he struck out 12.1 batters per nine innings, and he's flirted with 10.0 and 11.0 several other times during his career. He endured a heavy workload (75 2/3 innings in 77 appearances) a year ago and found himself hit hard by lefties (.746 OPS, though a .330 BABIP didn't help). Still, though, there's a chance he could do what the Red Sox have waited three years for Delcarmen to do -- be the team's primary shut-down reliever against righties.
Claudio Vargas: Another former starter who resurrected his career as a reliever, Vargas had a 1.78 ERA in 30 1/3 innings after being traded to the Milwaukee Brewers a year ago. He's not a pitcher who will miss bats much, though, and he's more of a fly-ball pitcher than a ground-ball pitcher. It would be easy to attribute his success, in fact, to a spectacularly low .202 BABIP a year ago -- a mark he's not likely to replicate.
Jonathan Papelbon almost certainly will be back. Hideki Okajima has been as consistent as it gets over the last few years. Daniel Bard is an up-and-coming flamethrower -- though no one in this particular neighborhood is completely convinced he's not going to be a starting pitcher at some point. Manny Delcarmen endured his rockiest season. Ramon Ramirez was untouchable in April and May but very touchable in August and September. Takashi Saito has been outrighted off the 40-man roster and likely won't be back. A endless cast of characters rotated through the final spot in the bullpen once Justin Masterson was traded to Cleveland.
(Postscript: And now Billy Wagner is gone, on his way to Atlanta to become the Braves' new closer.)
All of that means Epstein has to be surveying the free-agent market -- between phone calls to Jason Bay's agent, of course -- to see who might be an upgrade on what he has:
Kiko Calero: Even including a miserable season in 2007, the 34-year-old righty has a career 3.24 ERA in 312 appearances out of the bullpen. A year ago, he had a 1.95 ERA and struck out better than a batter an inning and allowed just one home run in 60 innings pitched. His career walk rate is a tick above the major-league average, but so too is his strikeout rate.
Even better: He won't cost a draft pick.
Octavio Dotel: The 36-year-old righty isn't a closer anymore, but he had a 3.55 ERA in 129 1/3 innings spanning two seasons with the White Sox, striking out more than a hitter an inning in both of his years in Chicago. The injury issues that plagued him in Oakland, New York, Kansas City and Atlanta seem to be behind him, and he's evolving as a pitcher: He added a cutter to his repertoire last season.
The downside to Dotel is that he's a Type A free agent who would require the forfeiture of a first-round pick -- though if the Red Sox signed both Dotel and Marco Scutaro, one of the two would mean forfeiting only a second-round pick. Heck, if the Red Sox sign Matt Holliday, they'd only lose a third-round pick for either Dotel or Scutaro.
Mike Gonzalez: Like Wagner, this lefty almost certainly will be looking for job where he can close. (The Pirates, the team with whom he had an All-Star caliber year in 2006, reportedly are interested.) If he doesn't find that, though, he could be a perfect replacement for Wagner in front of Papelbon in the Red Sox bullpen. Gonzalez had a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.85 in his last two seasons in Atlanta, and both righties and lefties have OPS'ed less than .650 against him in his career. Like Dotel, he's a Type A free agent.
Kevin Gregg: Another Type A free agent, the former Cubs and Marlins closer endured a rocky season (4.72 ERA) en route to losing his job at the back end of the bullpen. He has, however, allowed just 14 percent of inherited runners to score in the last two seasons -- even if his walk rate has been above the major-league average in each of the last three seasons.
Brandon Lyon: The righty once traded for Curt Schilling had a 2.86 ERA in setup duty with Detroit this season thanks in large part to a ground ball-to-fly ball ratio well above the major-league average. He allowed inherited runners to score at a less-than-impressive 36 percent clip last season, but his strikeout rate has increased in each of the last two seasons.
Justin Miller: The former disappointment with Toronto has a 3.65 ERA and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.15 over his past three seasons in Florida and San Francisco. His 3.18 ERA last season might be something of a mirage, though, given his K/BB ratio of 1.33, his BABIP of .248 and his inherited runners strand rate of 30 percent.
Chan Ho Park: At one time a devastating free-agent signing in Texas -- the Rangers gave him a $65 million contract after the 2001 season -- Park reinvented himself as a relief pitcher with the Dodgers and Phillies. His strikeout rate is right around the major-league average (7.9 per nine innings last season) but his walk rate is impressive (3.6) and has dropped significantly since his lousy years as a starter. One possible snag: Park told The Korea Times earlier this month that he wants to be a starting pitcher again.
B.J. Ryan: The closer cast off by the Blue Jays last season saw his strikeout rate plummet and his walk rate skyrocket during his years in Toronto, a warning sign for any team interested in him. During his heyday, however, he had a strikeout-to-walk rate around 4.0 and had a sub-3.00 ERA as recently as two seasons ago. The Blue Jays still owe him $10 million next season, so he might come cheap as a flier if he's interested in a chance to redeem himself as a setup man.
Rafael Soriano: There are reports that the Red Sox have requested medical records on the Braves' hard-throwing closer, a 30-year-old with a career 2.92 ERA and strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.51. A year ago, he struck out 12.1 batters per nine innings, and he's flirted with 10.0 and 11.0 several other times during his career. He endured a heavy workload (75 2/3 innings in 77 appearances) a year ago and found himself hit hard by lefties (.746 OPS, though a .330 BABIP didn't help). Still, though, there's a chance he could do what the Red Sox have waited three years for Delcarmen to do -- be the team's primary shut-down reliever against righties.
Claudio Vargas: Another former starter who resurrected his career as a reliever, Vargas had a 1.78 ERA in 30 1/3 innings after being traded to the Milwaukee Brewers a year ago. He's not a pitcher who will miss bats much, though, and he's more of a fly-ball pitcher than a ground-ball pitcher. It would be easy to attribute his success, in fact, to a spectacularly low .202 BABIP a year ago -- a mark he's not likely to replicate.
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Picking your spots with the Red Sox bullpen
Theo Epstein constructed perhaps his most impressive bullpen this winter and this summer, acquiring Ramon Ramirez, Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner and promoting Daniel Bard from Triple-A to supplement a group that already had experienced quite a bit of success. Among American League teams, only the Oakland Athletics had a better bullpen ERA during the regular season than the Red Sox.
The postseason, though, is where it counts -- and for all of the group's individual ups and downs, the postseason is where the group's reputation will be made.
But it's not just about talent and execution. It's about Terry Francona and the way he employs his bullpen. Certain relievers thrive in certain situations, and for the Red Sox to get past the Angels (and beyond), he'll need to pick and choose his spots for each of his guys. Here's a primer on how Francona might go about doing that:
Daniel Bard
The rookie went the entire month of July (and beyond) without surrendering an earned run, ripping off a string of 14 innings with an ERA of 0.00. He endured some ups and downs in August and September -- he allowed at least one earned run in six of his 10 appearances in August, for example -- but remains an electric arm with the ability to strike out just about anyone.
Use him: In Games 3 and 4 at Fenway Park. Opponents hit just .207 off the rookie in home games this season, and his 30-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio is astounding. His ERA this season was 1.46 at home and 5.84 on the road.
Don't use him: Against lefties who can go deep. Lefties slugged .488 against him this season and hit four of the home runs he gave up: Johnny Damon, Nick Swisher and Mark Teixeira (twice) hit home runs off him from the left side, but Evan Longoria is the only hitter to have gone deep against him from the right side.
Paul Byrd
The veteran righty came out of retirement this summer to contribute a handful of starts down the stretch, and he'll fill the same role in the playoffs this year that he did last year: Long man out of the bullpen. Byrd made one appearance a year ago, relieving Jon Lester in a Game 3 against Tampa Bay that got out of hand quickly. He gave up an eighth-inning home run in that game to -- you guessed it! -- Rocco Baldelli.
Use him: When a game already has been decided in the early innings. Byrd probably wouldn't even be on the roster if not for the diminishing effectiveness of Manny Delcarmen down the stretch, and his primary use now will be to save the rotation in case of a disastrous start by one of the other starters -- or to make an emergency start if someone gets hurt.
Don't use him: Against lefties, if at all possible. Lefties hit .405 off Byrd in his seven starts -- including seven doubles and three home runs.
Hideki Okajima
The lefty endured one of his most bumpy seasons -- but if you believe in trends, that could be a good omen: He had a lousy ERA in April, June and September but a great ERA in May, July and August. Maybe he's due for another run of being unhittable.
Use him: Against the toughest lefties. Billy Wagner had a slightly lower batting-average-against with lefties (.125 to Okajima's .167), but Okajima had a much better strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.71 to Wagner's 2.67).
Don't use him: When he's inheriting runners. Opponents hit .305 and OBP'ed .380 against Okajima this season with runners on base this season, but they hit just .199 and OBP'ed .259 against him with the bases empty.
Jonathan Papelbon
The closer has seen opponents hit just .189 and slug an amazing .264 against him in the second half, the result of a change in his set position that made him more comfortable even if it increased the wear and tear on his shoulder a little bit. He's well aware he's thrown 25 straight scoreless innings in the playoffs, a run of success he intends to maintain.
Use him: In the game's biggest spots. Opponents hit .128 against Papelbon this season in 86 at-bats with runners in scoring position -- and with the bases loaded, opponents were 1 for 15 this season with 10 strikeouts.
Don't use him: On three days' rest, the only time his control really starts to evaporate. His strikeout-to-walk ratio dipped from 16-to-1 on two days' rest to 13-to-9 on three days' rest, and opponents slugged .409 against him in that situation as well. That makes for a tricky situation in Game 1 -- he'll be on three days' rest after having pitched on Sunday -- but he should be all set to go on a more normal schedule during the rest of the postseason.
Ramon Ramirez
"RamRam" scuffled in the second half but not to the extent of some of his counterparts: His first-half ERA was 2.33, but his second-half ERA still was just 3.48. He throws like a power pitcher but doesn't miss bats like a power pitcher: His strikeout rate is just 6.7 per nine innings, lowest among the relievers left in the bullpen.
Use him: In Games 1, 2 and 5. No Red Sox pitcher has had as much success away from Fenway Park this season as Ramirez: Opponents are hitting .182 off him and slugging .295 off him when the Red Sox are on the road. At home, though, Ramirez has seen opponents hit .285 and slug .477 off him.
Don't use him: Against lefties who can go deep. Lefties slugged .452 against him this season but hit six home runs and eight doubles. When he got hit by lefties, he usually got hit hard.
Takashi Saito
The former Dodgers closer often was used as one of the last relievers out of the bullpen and seemed to benefit from it: His ERA was an impressive 2.43 despite relatively unimpressive peripherals -- including a WHIP of 1.35 and 25 walks issued in 55 2/3 innings.
The Red Sox call him "Sammy," but no one knows why.
Use him: Againstlefties and against switch-hitters with better numbers from the right side. Saito has a pretty severe reverse split -- lefties hit just .195 and slugged just .257 off him -- and that makes him a good weapon against switch-hitters who would prefer to hit righthanded. (This is not the case, however, for the Angels' Kendry Morales or Chone Figgins, both of whom hit better than .300 against righthanded pitchers this season.)
Don't use him: Against righties in a high-leverage situation. Righthanded hitters hit .304 and slugged .500 against Saito this season, including four home runs. No Red Sox reliever allowed more home runs to righthanded hitters.
Billy Wagner
The veteran lefty has terrible career numbers in the playoffs: In his years with the Astros and Mets combined, he has a 9.58 career ERA. It's hard to know what to make of that, though: You can't predict this season's results based on what he did in 1997, can you?
Use him: When you have some righties sandwiched in with a run of lefties. Wagner pitched effectively against lefties, of course, but he actually had just as much success against righties in his short run in Boston -- a .200 batting average against and a 3.5-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In his career, Wagner actually has held righties to a lower batting average (.186) than lefties (.200).
Don't use him: When a walk would be disastrous. Wagner has fought control issues off and on since his arrival, and no reliever on the postseason roster has a higher walk rate than Wagner's 4.6 per nine innings. Then again, the times when a walk would be disastrous are the times a strikeout would be great, and Wagner is averaging 14.5 strikeouts per nine innings since the Red Sox acquired him.
The postseason, though, is where it counts -- and for all of the group's individual ups and downs, the postseason is where the group's reputation will be made.
But it's not just about talent and execution. It's about Terry Francona and the way he employs his bullpen. Certain relievers thrive in certain situations, and for the Red Sox to get past the Angels (and beyond), he'll need to pick and choose his spots for each of his guys. Here's a primer on how Francona might go about doing that:
Daniel Bard
The rookie went the entire month of July (and beyond) without surrendering an earned run, ripping off a string of 14 innings with an ERA of 0.00. He endured some ups and downs in August and September -- he allowed at least one earned run in six of his 10 appearances in August, for example -- but remains an electric arm with the ability to strike out just about anyone.
Use him: In Games 3 and 4 at Fenway Park. Opponents hit just .207 off the rookie in home games this season, and his 30-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio is astounding. His ERA this season was 1.46 at home and 5.84 on the road.
Don't use him: Against lefties who can go deep. Lefties slugged .488 against him this season and hit four of the home runs he gave up: Johnny Damon, Nick Swisher and Mark Teixeira (twice) hit home runs off him from the left side, but Evan Longoria is the only hitter to have gone deep against him from the right side.
Paul Byrd
The veteran righty came out of retirement this summer to contribute a handful of starts down the stretch, and he'll fill the same role in the playoffs this year that he did last year: Long man out of the bullpen. Byrd made one appearance a year ago, relieving Jon Lester in a Game 3 against Tampa Bay that got out of hand quickly. He gave up an eighth-inning home run in that game to -- you guessed it! -- Rocco Baldelli.
Use him: When a game already has been decided in the early innings. Byrd probably wouldn't even be on the roster if not for the diminishing effectiveness of Manny Delcarmen down the stretch, and his primary use now will be to save the rotation in case of a disastrous start by one of the other starters -- or to make an emergency start if someone gets hurt.
Don't use him: Against lefties, if at all possible. Lefties hit .405 off Byrd in his seven starts -- including seven doubles and three home runs.
Hideki Okajima
The lefty endured one of his most bumpy seasons -- but if you believe in trends, that could be a good omen: He had a lousy ERA in April, June and September but a great ERA in May, July and August. Maybe he's due for another run of being unhittable.
Use him: Against the toughest lefties. Billy Wagner had a slightly lower batting-average-against with lefties (.125 to Okajima's .167), but Okajima had a much better strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.71 to Wagner's 2.67).
Don't use him: When he's inheriting runners. Opponents hit .305 and OBP'ed .380 against Okajima this season with runners on base this season, but they hit just .199 and OBP'ed .259 against him with the bases empty.
Jonathan Papelbon
The closer has seen opponents hit just .189 and slug an amazing .264 against him in the second half, the result of a change in his set position that made him more comfortable even if it increased the wear and tear on his shoulder a little bit. He's well aware he's thrown 25 straight scoreless innings in the playoffs, a run of success he intends to maintain.
Use him: In the game's biggest spots. Opponents hit .128 against Papelbon this season in 86 at-bats with runners in scoring position -- and with the bases loaded, opponents were 1 for 15 this season with 10 strikeouts.
Don't use him: On three days' rest, the only time his control really starts to evaporate. His strikeout-to-walk ratio dipped from 16-to-1 on two days' rest to 13-to-9 on three days' rest, and opponents slugged .409 against him in that situation as well. That makes for a tricky situation in Game 1 -- he'll be on three days' rest after having pitched on Sunday -- but he should be all set to go on a more normal schedule during the rest of the postseason.
Ramon Ramirez
"RamRam" scuffled in the second half but not to the extent of some of his counterparts: His first-half ERA was 2.33, but his second-half ERA still was just 3.48. He throws like a power pitcher but doesn't miss bats like a power pitcher: His strikeout rate is just 6.7 per nine innings, lowest among the relievers left in the bullpen.
Use him: In Games 1, 2 and 5. No Red Sox pitcher has had as much success away from Fenway Park this season as Ramirez: Opponents are hitting .182 off him and slugging .295 off him when the Red Sox are on the road. At home, though, Ramirez has seen opponents hit .285 and slug .477 off him.
Don't use him: Against lefties who can go deep. Lefties slugged .452 against him this season but hit six home runs and eight doubles. When he got hit by lefties, he usually got hit hard.
Takashi Saito
The former Dodgers closer often was used as one of the last relievers out of the bullpen and seemed to benefit from it: His ERA was an impressive 2.43 despite relatively unimpressive peripherals -- including a WHIP of 1.35 and 25 walks issued in 55 2/3 innings.
The Red Sox call him "Sammy," but no one knows why.
Use him: Againstlefties and against switch-hitters with better numbers from the right side. Saito has a pretty severe reverse split -- lefties hit just .195 and slugged just .257 off him -- and that makes him a good weapon against switch-hitters who would prefer to hit righthanded. (This is not the case, however, for the Angels' Kendry Morales or Chone Figgins, both of whom hit better than .300 against righthanded pitchers this season.)
Don't use him: Against righties in a high-leverage situation. Righthanded hitters hit .304 and slugged .500 against Saito this season, including four home runs. No Red Sox reliever allowed more home runs to righthanded hitters.
Billy Wagner
The veteran lefty has terrible career numbers in the playoffs: In his years with the Astros and Mets combined, he has a 9.58 career ERA. It's hard to know what to make of that, though: You can't predict this season's results based on what he did in 1997, can you?
Use him: When you have some righties sandwiched in with a run of lefties. Wagner pitched effectively against lefties, of course, but he actually had just as much success against righties in his short run in Boston -- a .200 batting average against and a 3.5-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In his career, Wagner actually has held righties to a lower batting average (.186) than lefties (.200).
Don't use him: When a walk would be disastrous. Wagner has fought control issues off and on since his arrival, and no reliever on the postseason roster has a higher walk rate than Wagner's 4.6 per nine innings. Then again, the times when a walk would be disastrous are the times a strikeout would be great, and Wagner is averaging 14.5 strikeouts per nine innings since the Red Sox acquired him.
Monday, September 28, 2009
Delcarmen still stranding runners, at least
Earned run average isn't the only way to judge relief pitchers. Takashi Saito, for example, turned a one-run lead on Sunday into a one-run deficit -- and his ERA for the season actually dropped from 2.36 to 2.35.
With that in mind, here's a look at the month-by month ERA for the Red Sox bullpen so far this season:
April: 2.88
May: 3.04
June: 3.82
July: 2.99
August: 4.69
September: 5.09
But, again, ERA isn't the only way to judge relief pitchers.
Even as the Red Sox bullpen ERA has skyrocketed, its rate of stranding inherited runners actually has plummeted. To wit:
Before Aug. 1: 35 for 115 (30.4 percent)
Since Aug. 1: 16 for 71 (22.5 percent)
One reliever is almost individually responsible for that drop, too -- and it's not who you'd think. Hideki Okajima and Ramon Ramirez actually have seen their inherited-runners-scored numbers increase since Aug 1.
Not so for Manny Delcarmen.
While some relievers tend to thrive most in bases-empty situations, the much-maligned Delcarmen have thrived in the most pressure-filled situations. Check out these splits:
Bases empty: .857 OPS
Runners on base: .703 OPS
Bases loaded: .404 OPS
And even as his ERA in September has climbed all the way to 16.20 entering play Monday, he's stranding inherited runners at an incredible rate. He allowed seven of his first 18 runners to score (38.9 percent), but since Aug. 1, he's allowed just one of 15 inherited runners to score (6.7 percent).
Five times in that span, he's come into a game with either two runners on or the bases loaded -- and he's wiggled out without surrendering a run.
Most Red Sox fans start to pull their hair out when Terry Francona calls upon Delcarmen in high-pressure situations with runners on base. Francona, though, might know just what he's doing.
With that in mind, here's a look at the month-by month ERA for the Red Sox bullpen so far this season:
April: 2.88
May: 3.04
June: 3.82
July: 2.99
August: 4.69
September: 5.09
But, again, ERA isn't the only way to judge relief pitchers.
Even as the Red Sox bullpen ERA has skyrocketed, its rate of stranding inherited runners actually has plummeted. To wit:
Before Aug. 1: 35 for 115 (30.4 percent)
Since Aug. 1: 16 for 71 (22.5 percent)
One reliever is almost individually responsible for that drop, too -- and it's not who you'd think. Hideki Okajima and Ramon Ramirez actually have seen their inherited-runners-scored numbers increase since Aug 1.
Not so for Manny Delcarmen.
While some relievers tend to thrive most in bases-empty situations, the much-maligned Delcarmen have thrived in the most pressure-filled situations. Check out these splits:
Bases empty: .857 OPS
Runners on base: .703 OPS
Bases loaded: .404 OPS
And even as his ERA in September has climbed all the way to 16.20 entering play Monday, he's stranding inherited runners at an incredible rate. He allowed seven of his first 18 runners to score (38.9 percent), but since Aug. 1, he's allowed just one of 15 inherited runners to score (6.7 percent).
Five times in that span, he's come into a game with either two runners on or the bases loaded -- and he's wiggled out without surrendering a run.
Most Red Sox fans start to pull their hair out when Terry Francona calls upon Delcarmen in high-pressure situations with runners on base. Francona, though, might know just what he's doing.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Red Sox pitching staff keeps getting thinner
When the Red Sox placed Junichi Tazawa on the 60-day disabled list, ending his rookie season, they made an interesting decision: They summoned shortstop Chris Woodward back from his home in Tampa, Fla., to provide depth in the infield.
The reason Woodward fits is clear. With Nick Green suffering from an as yet undiagnosed weakness in his leg, the Red Sox were down to just one backup middle infielder -- Jed Lowrie, whose lingering wrist injury has wiped out most of his season. Should Alex Gonzalez or Dustin Pedroia suffer any type of minor injury that would keep them out for a few days, the presence of Woodward allows the Red Sox to fill that spot without needing to push Lowrie too hard.
But swapping out Tazawa for Woodward does something else for the Red Sox: It leaves an already thin pitching staff even thinner.
With the Sept. 1 expansion of rosters comes an opportunity for teams to bring on board more pitchers, an opportunity to spread out the workload a little bit on a staff worked hard during the season's first five months.
Teams normally go with an 11- or 12-man pitching staff. Most have added four or five pitchers to the staff for the final month of the season. Half of them have 16 or more on their roster right now.
Baltimore's Dave Trembley turned calls to the bullpen into his own sophisticated form of Chinese water torture -- something he could do without issue because he has 18 pitchers to call upon. Both the Rockies and the Yankees are have 19.
The Red Sox, on the other hand, have 14. Having played all season with 12 pitchers, they used the Sept. 1 roster expansion to add just two more: Michael Bowden and the recently activated Daisuke Matsuzaka. Other than Bowden, the Red Sox are pitching with the same bullpen they've used all year.
It makes for some difficult in situations like Tuesday night, a night in which the Red Sox have Paul Byrd on the mound and no long reliever in the bullpen -- an almost unthinkable situation for a team to be in come September.
What's interesting is that two pitchers are available but are sitting at home. The Red Sox only have activated 34 of their available 40 players this month -- catcher Mark Wagner; infielders Aaron Bates, Chris Carter, and Jose Inglesias; and pitchers Felix Doubront and Hunter Jones haven't gotten the call. (Carter is effectively ineligible because he'll be traded to the Mets to complete the Billy Wagner deal.)
If the Red Sox want to go all-out to try to catch the Yankees for the division title, they won't pitch Bowden much and instead will stick with the relievers that have done the job so far.
If they want to ease off the accelerator and avoid overtaxing those same relievers, though, it might take more a pitching staff that goes more than 14 deep. It might take Doubront or Jones -- pitchers who, to this point, have not been summoned.
Doubront is something of a longshot. He's just 21 years old and threw 121 innings this season for Double-A Portland -- more innings than Clay Buchholz threw when he was 21 years old. He's never pitched above Double-A, either. He's likely been shut down for the season the way most Red Sox pitching prospects are after they hit a certain plateau.
The decision by the Red Sox not to call up Jones, though, is a curious one. Jones made eight appearances earlier this season when Daisuke Matsuzaka first went on the disabled list in April, and he's remained on the 40-man roster even while spending the rest of the season at Triple-A Pawtucket. His numbers weren't spectacular -- he had a 4.25 ERA in 53 innings pitched with the PawSox -- but the Tazawa-less Red Sox aren't in a position to be picky. If he can ease the burden on Hideki Okajima (59 innings pitched) or Ramon Ramirez (64 innings pitched), he'll have done his job.
If he's kept himself in any kind of pitching shape over the last couple of weeks -- he last pitched on Sept. 6 -- don't be surprised if he gets the call in the next few days.
The reason Woodward fits is clear. With Nick Green suffering from an as yet undiagnosed weakness in his leg, the Red Sox were down to just one backup middle infielder -- Jed Lowrie, whose lingering wrist injury has wiped out most of his season. Should Alex Gonzalez or Dustin Pedroia suffer any type of minor injury that would keep them out for a few days, the presence of Woodward allows the Red Sox to fill that spot without needing to push Lowrie too hard.
But swapping out Tazawa for Woodward does something else for the Red Sox: It leaves an already thin pitching staff even thinner.
With the Sept. 1 expansion of rosters comes an opportunity for teams to bring on board more pitchers, an opportunity to spread out the workload a little bit on a staff worked hard during the season's first five months.
Teams normally go with an 11- or 12-man pitching staff. Most have added four or five pitchers to the staff for the final month of the season. Half of them have 16 or more on their roster right now.
Baltimore's Dave Trembley turned calls to the bullpen into his own sophisticated form of Chinese water torture -- something he could do without issue because he has 18 pitchers to call upon. Both the Rockies and the Yankees are have 19.
The Red Sox, on the other hand, have 14. Having played all season with 12 pitchers, they used the Sept. 1 roster expansion to add just two more: Michael Bowden and the recently activated Daisuke Matsuzaka. Other than Bowden, the Red Sox are pitching with the same bullpen they've used all year.
It makes for some difficult in situations like Tuesday night, a night in which the Red Sox have Paul Byrd on the mound and no long reliever in the bullpen -- an almost unthinkable situation for a team to be in come September.
What's interesting is that two pitchers are available but are sitting at home. The Red Sox only have activated 34 of their available 40 players this month -- catcher Mark Wagner; infielders Aaron Bates, Chris Carter, and Jose Inglesias; and pitchers Felix Doubront and Hunter Jones haven't gotten the call. (Carter is effectively ineligible because he'll be traded to the Mets to complete the Billy Wagner deal.)
If the Red Sox want to go all-out to try to catch the Yankees for the division title, they won't pitch Bowden much and instead will stick with the relievers that have done the job so far.
If they want to ease off the accelerator and avoid overtaxing those same relievers, though, it might take more a pitching staff that goes more than 14 deep. It might take Doubront or Jones -- pitchers who, to this point, have not been summoned.
Doubront is something of a longshot. He's just 21 years old and threw 121 innings this season for Double-A Portland -- more innings than Clay Buchholz threw when he was 21 years old. He's never pitched above Double-A, either. He's likely been shut down for the season the way most Red Sox pitching prospects are after they hit a certain plateau.
The decision by the Red Sox not to call up Jones, though, is a curious one. Jones made eight appearances earlier this season when Daisuke Matsuzaka first went on the disabled list in April, and he's remained on the 40-man roster even while spending the rest of the season at Triple-A Pawtucket. His numbers weren't spectacular -- he had a 4.25 ERA in 53 innings pitched with the PawSox -- but the Tazawa-less Red Sox aren't in a position to be picky. If he can ease the burden on Hideki Okajima (59 innings pitched) or Ramon Ramirez (64 innings pitched), he'll have done his job.
If he's kept himself in any kind of pitching shape over the last couple of weeks -- he last pitched on Sept. 6 -- don't be surprised if he gets the call in the next few days.
Sunday, September 13, 2009
Bullpen well-rested -- but not too well-rested
Manny Delcarmen, Ramon Ramirez, Billy Wagner, Daniel Bard and Jonathan Papelbon all haven't pitched since Wednesday. They're all well-rested for the doubleheader today.
But Hideki Okajima hasn't pitched since Monday. Takashi Saito hasn't pitched since last Friday. Both could use the rest, but both still wouldn't mind staying a little bit sharp.
With an off-day, a rainout and a rain-shortened complete game all in a row, the Red Sox bullpen has found itself increasingly underworked in the last few days.
That, though, is not a bad thing.
With Clay Buchholz (3.03 ERA at Fenway Park this season) and Jon Lester (3.44 ERA in any park this season) on the mound, it might have taken some effort to shoehorn his relief pitchers into games.
"We're at the point in the year where we don't need to do that," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said. "They've got a lot of innings under their belt. We don't need to do that."
Okajima, even with his lengthy layoff, has appeared in more games (62) than anyone on the Red Sox staff. Only 11 pitchers in the American League have appeared in more. Ramirez has appeared in 60 games, tied for 16th in the American League, and closer Jonathan Papelbon has appeared in 59 games.
As a team, the Red Sox have the best bullpen ERA (3.66) in the American League -- and they've actually managed to stay well behind the pack in terms of innings pitched. Here's how it breaks down to this point in the season:
1. Baltimore, 478 2/3 IP
2. Oakland, 475 1/3
3. Cleveland, 478 2/3
4. New York, 451
5. Minnesota, 445 1/3
6. Seattle, 440 1/3
7. Toronto, 428 1/3
8. Los Angeles, 422 2/3
9. Texas, 418 2/3
t-10. Chicago, 416
t-10. Detroit, 416
12. Boston, 410 1/3
13. Kansas City, 408
14. Tampa Bay, 404
Francona has a well-rested bullpen, and he intends to keep it that way. He's not going to force-feed his relief pitchers into the game, and he's not going to pitch any of his relievers twice in the same day if he can help it.
"I wouldn't say that we'd rule it out," he said, "but I don't think that's in anybody's best interest. To sit for three days and then pitch twice in one day -- I know it appears that the guys are rested, but I don't know if pitching them like that makes sense. We try not to do that.
"Saying that, it'll probably happen. But we'll try to stay away from it."
But Hideki Okajima hasn't pitched since Monday. Takashi Saito hasn't pitched since last Friday. Both could use the rest, but both still wouldn't mind staying a little bit sharp.
With an off-day, a rainout and a rain-shortened complete game all in a row, the Red Sox bullpen has found itself increasingly underworked in the last few days.
That, though, is not a bad thing.
With Clay Buchholz (3.03 ERA at Fenway Park this season) and Jon Lester (3.44 ERA in any park this season) on the mound, it might have taken some effort to shoehorn his relief pitchers into games.
"We're at the point in the year where we don't need to do that," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said. "They've got a lot of innings under their belt. We don't need to do that."
Okajima, even with his lengthy layoff, has appeared in more games (62) than anyone on the Red Sox staff. Only 11 pitchers in the American League have appeared in more. Ramirez has appeared in 60 games, tied for 16th in the American League, and closer Jonathan Papelbon has appeared in 59 games.
As a team, the Red Sox have the best bullpen ERA (3.66) in the American League -- and they've actually managed to stay well behind the pack in terms of innings pitched. Here's how it breaks down to this point in the season:
1. Baltimore, 478 2/3 IP
2. Oakland, 475 1/3
3. Cleveland, 478 2/3
4. New York, 451
5. Minnesota, 445 1/3
6. Seattle, 440 1/3
7. Toronto, 428 1/3
8. Los Angeles, 422 2/3
9. Texas, 418 2/3
t-10. Chicago, 416
t-10. Detroit, 416
12. Boston, 410 1/3
13. Kansas City, 408
14. Tampa Bay, 404
Francona has a well-rested bullpen, and he intends to keep it that way. He's not going to force-feed his relief pitchers into the game, and he's not going to pitch any of his relievers twice in the same day if he can help it.
"I wouldn't say that we'd rule it out," he said, "but I don't think that's in anybody's best interest. To sit for three days and then pitch twice in one day -- I know it appears that the guys are rested, but I don't know if pitching them like that makes sense. We try not to do that.
"Saying that, it'll probably happen. But we'll try to stay away from it."
Sunday, August 30, 2009
Pitching out of jams with Paul Byrd
(If you're not interested in what goes through the mind of a pitcher when he gets into a jam, you'll want to skip this one. This writer, though, finds that kind of thing absolutely fascinating.)
Paul Byrd allowed two baserunners in the first three innings he pitched on Sunday and never found himself in any sort of trouble as the Red Sox staked him to a 3-0 lead.
That changed in the top of the fourth.
Lefty Adam Lind led off with a double off the center-field end of the Green Monster, jumping on a fastball over the middle of the plate and lining it up the gap between Jacoby Ellsbury and Rocco Baldelli. Lyle Overbay then flew to Baldelli and Vernon Wells grounded to shortstop, forcing Lind to hold at second base.
That brought up catcher Rod Barajas with Travis Snider on deck and Jose Bautista behind him.
Here's what Byrd knew:
1. Barajas, a righthanded hitter, had four hits, all singles, in 12 career at-bats against him.
2. Snider, a lefty, had two extra-base hits -- a double and a home run -- in four career at-bats against him. Both of those at-bats came last September.
3. Bautista, a righty, had never faced him.
4. Lefties had OPS'ed .856 against Byrd in his career, and righties had OPS'ed .694. So far in the game, Byrd had allowed a single to righty Marco Scutaro and a double to Lind, a lefty.
With two outs, Byrd wanted to go right after Barajas. He wanted to go after him and get him out and not have to face a lefty with the bases loaded.
That's why he was so upset when he walked him on five pitches.
"The walk to Barajas just kills me because he's a righthander who doesn't see the ball super-well off me," Byrd said. "I made some poor pitches there."
That brought up Snider with runners on first and second and two outs -- and, it must be noted, Bautista on deck. Byrd had two options: Go right after Snider or unintentionally intentionally walk Snider and challenge Bautista.
There's a risk there, of course. For one thing, he'd be loading the bases -- and there was no guarantee that the command that deserted him against Barajas would return against Bautista. For another thing, the Blue Jays were getting close to turning the lineup over, and Byrd didn't want to have to face Scutaro and Aaron Hill and Lind again with runners on base.
On the other hand, walking the bases loaded would mean he'd get to pitch once again out of the windup. In his 30 starts a year ago, opponents hit .282 when Byrd pitched out of the windup and .295 when he pitched out of the stretch. His strikeout-to-walk ratio also fell from 3.13 out of the windup to 1.78 out of the stretch.
Like most pitchers, Byrd is most comfortable pitching out of the windup.
"Snider, on the other hand, is a lefty who sees the ball a little better off me," he said. "He hit a home run off me last year. I really wanted to pitch him carefully, and I knew that if I loaded the bases, I could go out of the windup. I was rushing out of the stretch."
Byrd walked Snider on three changeups and a high slider.
That brought Bautista to the plate.
Byrd started Bautista with a slider just off the outside corner that umpire Jim Wolf called a strike. He came back with a fastball up and in that was called a ball. His third pitch was a slider outside that seemed to get away from him, and he fell behind in the count, 2-1.
His fourth pitch was a better slider, a pitch that started on the inside half but then broke outside, and Bautista fouled it off.
He then reared back and threw a hard cutter, the hardest pitch he threw all day, a pitch that tailed away from Bautista on the outer half of the plate. Bautista got good wood on it and hit it to right field -- but in Fenway Park, that's where a pitcher wants to see the ball hit.
Right fielder J.D. Drew tracked it down for the third out.
Byrd pumped his fist, an animated celebration that's not exactly out of character for the 38-year-old veteran.
"That was big for me," he said. "(When) you get runs off Roy Halladay, you don't want to go out there and walk the other team back into the game. I was pretty frustrated after that inning, but, fortunately, we got out of it."
Said Red Sox manager Terry Francona, "It's hard not to be excited around Byrdie. He creates his own excitement. He's running around and patting everybody on the back and waving to his wife. He's got all kinds of things going on. ...
"The excitement is excitement about pitching and not the pressure of having to do well. He probably relished the fact that he was out there pitching in a game of that significance, and he really enjoyed that."
He'll get another shot next weekend, either Friday or Saturday in Chicago. If the Red Sox can get close to the result then that they got on Sunday, they'll be thrilled.
Paul Byrd allowed two baserunners in the first three innings he pitched on Sunday and never found himself in any sort of trouble as the Red Sox staked him to a 3-0 lead.
That changed in the top of the fourth.
Lefty Adam Lind led off with a double off the center-field end of the Green Monster, jumping on a fastball over the middle of the plate and lining it up the gap between Jacoby Ellsbury and Rocco Baldelli. Lyle Overbay then flew to Baldelli and Vernon Wells grounded to shortstop, forcing Lind to hold at second base.
That brought up catcher Rod Barajas with Travis Snider on deck and Jose Bautista behind him.
Here's what Byrd knew:
1. Barajas, a righthanded hitter, had four hits, all singles, in 12 career at-bats against him.
2. Snider, a lefty, had two extra-base hits -- a double and a home run -- in four career at-bats against him. Both of those at-bats came last September.
3. Bautista, a righty, had never faced him.
4. Lefties had OPS'ed .856 against Byrd in his career, and righties had OPS'ed .694. So far in the game, Byrd had allowed a single to righty Marco Scutaro and a double to Lind, a lefty.
With two outs, Byrd wanted to go right after Barajas. He wanted to go after him and get him out and not have to face a lefty with the bases loaded.
That's why he was so upset when he walked him on five pitches.
"The walk to Barajas just kills me because he's a righthander who doesn't see the ball super-well off me," Byrd said. "I made some poor pitches there."
That brought up Snider with runners on first and second and two outs -- and, it must be noted, Bautista on deck. Byrd had two options: Go right after Snider or unintentionally intentionally walk Snider and challenge Bautista.
There's a risk there, of course. For one thing, he'd be loading the bases -- and there was no guarantee that the command that deserted him against Barajas would return against Bautista. For another thing, the Blue Jays were getting close to turning the lineup over, and Byrd didn't want to have to face Scutaro and Aaron Hill and Lind again with runners on base.
On the other hand, walking the bases loaded would mean he'd get to pitch once again out of the windup. In his 30 starts a year ago, opponents hit .282 when Byrd pitched out of the windup and .295 when he pitched out of the stretch. His strikeout-to-walk ratio also fell from 3.13 out of the windup to 1.78 out of the stretch.
Like most pitchers, Byrd is most comfortable pitching out of the windup.
"Snider, on the other hand, is a lefty who sees the ball a little better off me," he said. "He hit a home run off me last year. I really wanted to pitch him carefully, and I knew that if I loaded the bases, I could go out of the windup. I was rushing out of the stretch."
Byrd walked Snider on three changeups and a high slider.
That brought Bautista to the plate.
Byrd started Bautista with a slider just off the outside corner that umpire Jim Wolf called a strike. He came back with a fastball up and in that was called a ball. His third pitch was a slider outside that seemed to get away from him, and he fell behind in the count, 2-1.
His fourth pitch was a better slider, a pitch that started on the inside half but then broke outside, and Bautista fouled it off.
He then reared back and threw a hard cutter, the hardest pitch he threw all day, a pitch that tailed away from Bautista on the outer half of the plate. Bautista got good wood on it and hit it to right field -- but in Fenway Park, that's where a pitcher wants to see the ball hit.
Right fielder J.D. Drew tracked it down for the third out.
Byrd pumped his fist, an animated celebration that's not exactly out of character for the 38-year-old veteran.
"That was big for me," he said. "(When) you get runs off Roy Halladay, you don't want to go out there and walk the other team back into the game. I was pretty frustrated after that inning, but, fortunately, we got out of it."
Said Red Sox manager Terry Francona, "It's hard not to be excited around Byrdie. He creates his own excitement. He's running around and patting everybody on the back and waving to his wife. He's got all kinds of things going on. ...
"The excitement is excitement about pitching and not the pressure of having to do well. He probably relished the fact that he was out there pitching in a game of that significance, and he really enjoyed that."
He'll get another shot next weekend, either Friday or Saturday in Chicago. If the Red Sox can get close to the result then that they got on Sunday, they'll be thrilled.
Friday, August 28, 2009
Rain delays Dice-K's rehab, but not his return
Daisuke Matsuzaka will not pitch in Manchester on Saturday, Red Sox manager Terry Francona announced on Friday afternoon, and instead will pitch the first game of a rescheduled doubleheader on Sunday for the Double-A Portland Sea Dogs.
But that won't change the target date for his return.
"That doesn't really do anything," Francona said, "because when I stated that Dice could come back and pitch on the 8th, we really wanted him to pitch on the 9th. That actually works out perfect."
You have to assume that Matsuzaka will replace Junichi Tazawa in the starting rotation. Clay Buchholz is here to stay, and neither of the other three pitchers at the top of the rotation are going anywhere. That means the schedule likely breaks down as follows:
Aug. 28 vs. Toronto: Beckett
Aug. 29 vs. Toronto: Buchholz
Aug. 30 vs. Toronto: Lester
(The team has a day off on Aug. 31, the day before rosters expand.)
Sept. 1 at Tampa Bay: Wakefield
Sept. 2 at Tampa Bay: Tazawa
Sept. 3 at Tampa Bay: Beckett (five days' rest)
Sept. 4 at Chicago: Buchholz (five days' rest)
Sept. 5 at Chicago: Lester (five days' rest)
Sept. 6 at Chicago: Wakefield (four days' rest)
Sept. 7 at Chicago: Tazawa (four days' rest)
Sept. 8 vs. Baltimore: Beckett (four days' rest)
Sept. 9: vs. Baltimore: Matsuzaka
(The team has a day off on Sept. 10.)
Sept. 11 vs. Tampa Bay: Buchholz (six days' rest)
Sept. 12 vs. Tampa Bay: Lester (six days' rest)
Sept. 13 vs. Tampa Bay: Wakefield (six days' rest)
(The team has a day off on Sept. 14.)
Sept. 15 vs. Los Angeles: Beckett (six days' rest)
This is the spot where it starts to get interesting. Beckett would have gone a week without pitching and would need to take his turn before the extra rest became a hindrance to his routine. Tazawa, by this point, would be in the bullpen.
Sept. 16 vs. Los Angeles: Matsuzaka (six days' rest)
Sept. 17 vs. Los Angeles: Buchholz (five days' rest)
Sept. 18 at Baltimore: Lester (five days' rest)
Sept. 19 at Baltimore: Wakefield (five days' rest)
And so on.
If Matsuzaka replaces Tazawa in the rotation, Sept. 15 or 16 would be the natural day for the transition to happen. The Red Sox pitchers would get an extra day of rest thanks to Matsuzaka's first start back from the disabled list, but too much rest might do more harm than good.
The Red Sox then will go almost three weeks without a day off, but with every pitcher taking his turn every five days and extra depth available in the bullpen, it ought to be easy to prevent anyone from getting overworked.
But that won't change the target date for his return.
"That doesn't really do anything," Francona said, "because when I stated that Dice could come back and pitch on the 8th, we really wanted him to pitch on the 9th. That actually works out perfect."
You have to assume that Matsuzaka will replace Junichi Tazawa in the starting rotation. Clay Buchholz is here to stay, and neither of the other three pitchers at the top of the rotation are going anywhere. That means the schedule likely breaks down as follows:
Aug. 28 vs. Toronto: Beckett
Aug. 29 vs. Toronto: Buchholz
Aug. 30 vs. Toronto: Lester
(The team has a day off on Aug. 31, the day before rosters expand.)
Sept. 1 at Tampa Bay: Wakefield
Sept. 2 at Tampa Bay: Tazawa
Sept. 3 at Tampa Bay: Beckett (five days' rest)
Sept. 4 at Chicago: Buchholz (five days' rest)
Sept. 5 at Chicago: Lester (five days' rest)
Sept. 6 at Chicago: Wakefield (four days' rest)
Sept. 7 at Chicago: Tazawa (four days' rest)
Sept. 8 vs. Baltimore: Beckett (four days' rest)
Sept. 9: vs. Baltimore: Matsuzaka
(The team has a day off on Sept. 10.)
Sept. 11 vs. Tampa Bay: Buchholz (six days' rest)
Sept. 12 vs. Tampa Bay: Lester (six days' rest)
Sept. 13 vs. Tampa Bay: Wakefield (six days' rest)
(The team has a day off on Sept. 14.)
Sept. 15 vs. Los Angeles: Beckett (six days' rest)
This is the spot where it starts to get interesting. Beckett would have gone a week without pitching and would need to take his turn before the extra rest became a hindrance to his routine. Tazawa, by this point, would be in the bullpen.
Sept. 16 vs. Los Angeles: Matsuzaka (six days' rest)
Sept. 17 vs. Los Angeles: Buchholz (five days' rest)
Sept. 18 at Baltimore: Lester (five days' rest)
Sept. 19 at Baltimore: Wakefield (five days' rest)
And so on.
If Matsuzaka replaces Tazawa in the rotation, Sept. 15 or 16 would be the natural day for the transition to happen. The Red Sox pitchers would get an extra day of rest thanks to Matsuzaka's first start back from the disabled list, but too much rest might do more harm than good.
The Red Sox then will go almost three weeks without a day off, but with every pitcher taking his turn every five days and extra depth available in the bullpen, it ought to be easy to prevent anyone from getting overworked.
Saturday, August 22, 2009
Pitching rotation: From Point A to Point B
Tim Wakefield will start Wednesday for the Red Sox in place of Brad Penny, the veteran who might have seen his Red Sox career come to an inglorious end in similar fashion to John Smoltz two weeks ago.
Smoltz was rocked by the Yankees at Yankee Stadium, and Penny was rocked by the Yankees at Fenway Park to the tune of eight runs in four innings. Red Sox manager Terry Francona didn't come with the "At least he was throwing strikes" optimism he's brought to previous post-Penny press conferences, and he told reporters this afternoon that Penny had lost his spot in the Red Sox rotation.
"I told him he's got to kind of hang tight a little bit and get through today, and then we'll go from there," Francona said.
Odds are long that Penny will make another start for the Red Sox this season. It would be easy enough to "skip" Penny in the rotation this week, optioning Enrique Gonzalez to Triple-A Pawtucket to make room for Wakefield and filling out the bullpen with extra arms when rosters expand five days later.
The return of Wakefield and the marginalization of Penny means just more upheaval in a Red Sox pitching staff many believed to be the deepest in baseball coming out of spring training. Francona and Theo Epstein developed contingency plan after contingency plan -- and they've had to put almost all of them to use.
It's amazing, really, how the Red Sox depth chart, to borrow a phrase from football, has evolved from its Opening Day incarnation to the way it looks right now:
Late March
1. Josh Beckett
2. Jon Lester
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka
4. Tim Wakefield
5. Brad Penny
6. Justin Masterson (in the bullpen)
7. John Smoltz (rehabbing)
8. Clay Buchholz (in the minors)
9. Michael Bowden (in the minors)
10. Junichi Tazawa (in the minors)
Late August
1. Beckett (3.38 ERA)
2. Lester (3.58 ERA)
Not much has changed at the top of the rotation. Beckett and Lester each have double-digit wins and a couple of complete games to go along with a strikeout-to-walk ratio right around 3.5. Only nine pitchers in the American League have a strikeout-to-walk ratio of better than 3.0, and two of them are atop the Red Sox rotation.
(Roy Halladay, by the way, has 151 strikeouts and 23 walks -- a ratio of 6.57. Amazing.)
3. Buchholz (3.99 ERA)
One thing Buchholz does better than anyone on the Red Sox pitching staff is induce the ground ball. As a team, the Red Sox have a ground ball/fly ball ratio of 0.73; that is, they allow four fly balls for every three ground balls they induce. Both Beckett and Lester do better than most -- they have GB/FB ratios of 0.90 and 0.96, respectively -- but they both still allow more fly balls than ground balls.
Not Buchholz. The 25-year-old righty has a 1.30 GB/FB ratio in his seven starts this seasno, and he's getting outs via the ground ball at a rate of better than 2-to-1. (Double plays, of course, inflate that rate. Still, though, even ground-ball specialist Justin Masterson only had a rate of ground outs to air outs of 1.59.)
If the season ended today, Buchholz almost certainly would start Game 3 of the Red Sox's first-round playoff series.
4. Wakefield (4.31 ERA)
The All-Star knuckleballer surrendered just two hits and one run in 5 2/3 solid innings for Triple-A Pawtucket on Friday and reassured the Red Sox that he could field his position well enough to pitch in the major-league rotation. He had an ERA of 4.31 in 17 starts before he landed on the disabled list with a back injury and, later, with pain related to a sciatic problem in his calf.
"He can cover his position and he's a really good pitcher," Francona told reporters on Saturday, "so I think we're OK."
He gets the edge over the team's No. 5 starter because he, if healthy, almost certainly would pitch Game 4 of any first-round playoff series. His knuckleball might always be a wild card, but he's far more difficult to bring out of the bullpen because of it.
5. Tazawa (3.57 ERA)
The 23-year-old rookie erased the memory of Penny's disastrous start by tossing six shutout innings and, perhaps even more impressively, outpitching A.J. Burnett, the Yankees' No. 2 starter. Tazawa now has a 3.57 ERA in his four appearances in the major leagues and appears to be getting more and more comfortable with his role.
Barring injury, it appears he'll be the fifth starter in the Red Sox rotation the rest of the way.
One thing he did particularly well was attack the strike zone -- especially against the Yankees' lefties. Tazawa pitched mostly away from the lefties in the Detroit lineup in his first start two weeks ago, conceding the Green Monster in order not to give up solid contact on the inside half of the plate. That's a mark of a rookie pitcher, a pitcher who doesn't quite believe that his stuff is good enough on its own.
Against the Yankees, though, he pitched inside to lefties with both his fastball and his curveball, and he got results. Check out the two graphs. First is his strike-zone chart -- as viewed from behind the plate -- against Detroit on Aug. 11...
Smoltz was rocked by the Yankees at Yankee Stadium, and Penny was rocked by the Yankees at Fenway Park to the tune of eight runs in four innings. Red Sox manager Terry Francona didn't come with the "At least he was throwing strikes" optimism he's brought to previous post-Penny press conferences, and he told reporters this afternoon that Penny had lost his spot in the Red Sox rotation.
"I told him he's got to kind of hang tight a little bit and get through today, and then we'll go from there," Francona said.
Odds are long that Penny will make another start for the Red Sox this season. It would be easy enough to "skip" Penny in the rotation this week, optioning Enrique Gonzalez to Triple-A Pawtucket to make room for Wakefield and filling out the bullpen with extra arms when rosters expand five days later.
The return of Wakefield and the marginalization of Penny means just more upheaval in a Red Sox pitching staff many believed to be the deepest in baseball coming out of spring training. Francona and Theo Epstein developed contingency plan after contingency plan -- and they've had to put almost all of them to use.
It's amazing, really, how the Red Sox depth chart, to borrow a phrase from football, has evolved from its Opening Day incarnation to the way it looks right now:
Late March
1. Josh Beckett
2. Jon Lester
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka
4. Tim Wakefield
5. Brad Penny
6. Justin Masterson (in the bullpen)
7. John Smoltz (rehabbing)
8. Clay Buchholz (in the minors)
9. Michael Bowden (in the minors)
10. Junichi Tazawa (in the minors)
Late August
1. Beckett (3.38 ERA)
2. Lester (3.58 ERA)
Not much has changed at the top of the rotation. Beckett and Lester each have double-digit wins and a couple of complete games to go along with a strikeout-to-walk ratio right around 3.5. Only nine pitchers in the American League have a strikeout-to-walk ratio of better than 3.0, and two of them are atop the Red Sox rotation.
(Roy Halladay, by the way, has 151 strikeouts and 23 walks -- a ratio of 6.57. Amazing.)
3. Buchholz (3.99 ERA)
One thing Buchholz does better than anyone on the Red Sox pitching staff is induce the ground ball. As a team, the Red Sox have a ground ball/fly ball ratio of 0.73; that is, they allow four fly balls for every three ground balls they induce. Both Beckett and Lester do better than most -- they have GB/FB ratios of 0.90 and 0.96, respectively -- but they both still allow more fly balls than ground balls.
Not Buchholz. The 25-year-old righty has a 1.30 GB/FB ratio in his seven starts this seasno, and he's getting outs via the ground ball at a rate of better than 2-to-1. (Double plays, of course, inflate that rate. Still, though, even ground-ball specialist Justin Masterson only had a rate of ground outs to air outs of 1.59.)
If the season ended today, Buchholz almost certainly would start Game 3 of the Red Sox's first-round playoff series.
4. Wakefield (4.31 ERA)
The All-Star knuckleballer surrendered just two hits and one run in 5 2/3 solid innings for Triple-A Pawtucket on Friday and reassured the Red Sox that he could field his position well enough to pitch in the major-league rotation. He had an ERA of 4.31 in 17 starts before he landed on the disabled list with a back injury and, later, with pain related to a sciatic problem in his calf.
"He can cover his position and he's a really good pitcher," Francona told reporters on Saturday, "so I think we're OK."
He gets the edge over the team's No. 5 starter because he, if healthy, almost certainly would pitch Game 4 of any first-round playoff series. His knuckleball might always be a wild card, but he's far more difficult to bring out of the bullpen because of it.
5. Tazawa (3.57 ERA)
The 23-year-old rookie erased the memory of Penny's disastrous start by tossing six shutout innings and, perhaps even more impressively, outpitching A.J. Burnett, the Yankees' No. 2 starter. Tazawa now has a 3.57 ERA in his four appearances in the major leagues and appears to be getting more and more comfortable with his role.
Barring injury, it appears he'll be the fifth starter in the Red Sox rotation the rest of the way.
One thing he did particularly well was attack the strike zone -- especially against the Yankees' lefties. Tazawa pitched mostly away from the lefties in the Detroit lineup in his first start two weeks ago, conceding the Green Monster in order not to give up solid contact on the inside half of the plate. That's a mark of a rookie pitcher, a pitcher who doesn't quite believe that his stuff is good enough on its own.
Against the Yankees, though, he pitched inside to lefties with both his fastball and his curveball, and he got results. Check out the two graphs. First is his strike-zone chart -- as viewed from behind the plate -- against Detroit on Aug. 11...
... followed by his strike-zone chart against the Yankees on Saturday:
He also disguised his curveball far better in terms of release point, not giving away his pitch simply with the location of his hand when he let go of the ball. (The idea is for each pitch to come out of the hand in the same spot, so if the purple data points are distinguishable from the other data points, that's a problem.)
The first chart, again, is that start against Detroit...
... and the second is Saturday against New York.
Tazawa has all the goods to be a terrific major-league pitcher. He's not exactly the ground-ball specialist Buchholz is -- he recorded 11 fly-ball outs on Saturday and just four ground-ball outs -- but he's making a case right now to be part of the Red Sox rotation from the get-go next season.
6. Matsuzaka (rehabbing)
The pitcher who finished third in Cy Young voting is expected to make a rehab start in the Gulf Coast League on Monday and begin to climb the minor-league ladder from there. He might be a maddening pitcher at times, but he did throw seven shutout innings in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series a year ago and was viewed as the team's clear-cut No. 3 starter before the season.
If Matsuzaka returns in time to show off his progress before the season ends, he might again be that No. 3 starter in the team's postseason rotation.
7. Paul Byrd (in the minors)
Desperate times call for desperate measures, and the struggles of Penny and Smoltz prompted the Red Sox to sign Byrd to a contract in hopes he could round himself into form in time for the stretch run. The veteran threw 74 pitches in four innings for the PawSox on Wednesday, surrendering three runs on six hits, and he'll likely pitch twice more in Pawtucket before rosters expand on Sept. 1.
8. Bowden (in the minors)
Don't make too much of Bowden's disastrous two innings against the Yankees. For one thing, he's been a starting pitcher all season and not only did he have to pitch in relief on Friday, he had to do so (a) after having warmed up once already only to sit back down; (b) with runners on first and third and no outs; and (c) against a lineup already feeling good about itself, as Francona would say.
If Wakefield gets hurt again and neither Matsuzaka nor Byrd pan out, Bowden likely would become the team's fifth starter in September.
9. Brad Penny (in limbo)
Here's the chart from Friday that tells the story:
Penny threw his fastball with good velocity (95 miles an hour) and even offset it with changeups, sliders and curveballs. But everything he threw was right down the middle of the plate. You can't win pitching like that.
Penny indicated earlier this season he has no desire to pitch out of the bullpen. He might not, however, have any say in the matter. His repertoire actually makes him a better fit as a reliever than as a starter, and he'd have a vested interest in performing well in mop-up duty as he heads back out on the open market this winter. (You can bet the Mets will be watching.)
With rosters due to expand a week from Tuesday, the Red Sox appear to have no reason to release Penny outright. If they can stash him away for seven or eight days, they can use him in mop-up duty out of the bullpen. If something goes terribly wrong in mid-September -- such as half the starting rotation catching swine flu -- he can make a spot start. Otherwise, though, he's all finished pitching meaningful innings in Boston.
N/A. Smoltz (DFA'ed) and Masterson (traded to Cleveland)
Both are gone. Neither is coming back.
Masterson, though, earned his first win as a member of the Cleveland Indians on Thursday night, tossing 6 1/3 strong innings to beat the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. He now has a 3.78 ERA since the Red Sox traded him to the Indians as part of the Victor Martinez deal on July 24.
But you have to give something to get something, right?
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Contrasting Beckett's two Stadium starts
(This is all part of an ongoing effort to understand and explain some of the data included in PitchFX charts, an incredible reservoir of information about pitchers and pitching and everything that goes into that part of the game. You can find those charts for every major-league pitcher in every game at www.brooksbaseball.net.)
Josh Beckett, like fellow ace Jon Lester, found himself knocked around a little bit to start the season. He had a 7.22 ERA at the end of April and allowed 10 hits in three straight starts, a stretch that included a May 5 start at Yankee Stadium in which he escaped having allowed just three earned runs in six innings.
He then went back to Yankee Stadium on Friday night and pitched seven spectacular innings, holding the Yankees without a run on four hits in a game that eventually went deep into the night before Alex Rodriguez went deep against relief Junichi Tazawa.
When you look at the PitchFX charts, you can see some significant differences between the way Beckett attacked the Yankees on May 5 and the way he attacked the Yankees on Aug. 7:
1. Using the whole plate against lefties
Part of the issue with the new Yankee Stadium is the short porch in right field, the only place in the world where Dustin Pedroia can hit an opposite-field home run. A strong lefty can get a ball in on the fists and, as long as he gets his body turned just a little bit, muscle a ball over that fence.
Check out the way Beckett pitched lefties on May 5 -- keeping in mind that the chart is from the perspective of the catcher...
... and the way Beckett pitched lefties on Aug. 7:
He consciously pitched away from the inside half of the plate against lefties -- and switch-hitters like Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher, naturally hitting lefthanded against him -- and instead worked the outer half. He didn't give lefties a chance to take the ball over the fence in right field, but he did give them a chance to extend their arms and a chance to dive out over the plate a little bit. If Beckett gives up the inside half of the plate, he gives up quite a bit of his effectiveness.
The next time he pitched at Yankee Stadium, he didn't pitch to the ballpark. He pitched his game. He attacked the inside half of the plate. In doing so, he regained control of every at-bat.
(One thing he also did: He buried his curveball. Rather than throwing his curveball in a spot where it could be hit, he threw it down and in and even in the dirt occasionally. If it's going to be a strikeout pitch, that's what he has to do with it.)
2. Reintroducing the two-seam fastball and changeup
Beckett is dangerous enough with two pitches. When he can throw a third pitch with effectiveness, it makes him all the more lethal.
Check out two more charts, first from May 5...
and, second, from Aug. 7:
It helped that he threw his fastball with a little more velocity, of course. But the key to pitching isn't speed as much as it is differential and timing: The more a pitcher can keep hitters off-balance, the better. Throwing a 95-mile-an-hour four-seam fastball isn't going to help much if your two-seam fastball is 92 or 93 with similar movement. You might as well ditch the two-seamer and just throw four-seamers all night long.
In Beckett's Aug. 7 start at Yankee Stadium, though, he found a way to differentiate his two-seam fastball from his four-seam fastball. Both pitches had the same type of movement but were separated by six or seven miles per hour rather than three or four miles per hour.
On top of that, he threw his two-seamer with consistency. Graphs like the above graphs can be overwhelming, but what's often most telling is how closely grouped the points of data are. A pitcher always strives to throw his pitches with consistency, to have the same velocity and the same movement on every fastball and simply to vary the location and pitch selection to keep the hitter off-balance. If fastballs show different amounts of movement, they're going to be difficult to control and thus throw with pinpoint control.
The chart from May 5 shots Beckett throwing two-seamers and changeups with varying wildly varying amounts of movement. You couldn't draw a circle around that group of data points; you'd have to draw an awkward-looking oval. His changeups and two-seamers from Aug. 7, though, fit neatly into a confined area and indeed could be contained within a pretty small circle.
That's what consistency and pinpoint control looks like.
Josh Beckett, like fellow ace Jon Lester, found himself knocked around a little bit to start the season. He had a 7.22 ERA at the end of April and allowed 10 hits in three straight starts, a stretch that included a May 5 start at Yankee Stadium in which he escaped having allowed just three earned runs in six innings.
He then went back to Yankee Stadium on Friday night and pitched seven spectacular innings, holding the Yankees without a run on four hits in a game that eventually went deep into the night before Alex Rodriguez went deep against relief Junichi Tazawa.
When you look at the PitchFX charts, you can see some significant differences between the way Beckett attacked the Yankees on May 5 and the way he attacked the Yankees on Aug. 7:
1. Using the whole plate against lefties
Part of the issue with the new Yankee Stadium is the short porch in right field, the only place in the world where Dustin Pedroia can hit an opposite-field home run. A strong lefty can get a ball in on the fists and, as long as he gets his body turned just a little bit, muscle a ball over that fence.
Check out the way Beckett pitched lefties on May 5 -- keeping in mind that the chart is from the perspective of the catcher...
... and the way Beckett pitched lefties on Aug. 7:
He consciously pitched away from the inside half of the plate against lefties -- and switch-hitters like Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher, naturally hitting lefthanded against him -- and instead worked the outer half. He didn't give lefties a chance to take the ball over the fence in right field, but he did give them a chance to extend their arms and a chance to dive out over the plate a little bit. If Beckett gives up the inside half of the plate, he gives up quite a bit of his effectiveness.
The next time he pitched at Yankee Stadium, he didn't pitch to the ballpark. He pitched his game. He attacked the inside half of the plate. In doing so, he regained control of every at-bat.
(One thing he also did: He buried his curveball. Rather than throwing his curveball in a spot where it could be hit, he threw it down and in and even in the dirt occasionally. If it's going to be a strikeout pitch, that's what he has to do with it.)
2. Reintroducing the two-seam fastball and changeup
Beckett is dangerous enough with two pitches. When he can throw a third pitch with effectiveness, it makes him all the more lethal.
Check out two more charts, first from May 5...
and, second, from Aug. 7:
It helped that he threw his fastball with a little more velocity, of course. But the key to pitching isn't speed as much as it is differential and timing: The more a pitcher can keep hitters off-balance, the better. Throwing a 95-mile-an-hour four-seam fastball isn't going to help much if your two-seam fastball is 92 or 93 with similar movement. You might as well ditch the two-seamer and just throw four-seamers all night long.
In Beckett's Aug. 7 start at Yankee Stadium, though, he found a way to differentiate his two-seam fastball from his four-seam fastball. Both pitches had the same type of movement but were separated by six or seven miles per hour rather than three or four miles per hour.
On top of that, he threw his two-seamer with consistency. Graphs like the above graphs can be overwhelming, but what's often most telling is how closely grouped the points of data are. A pitcher always strives to throw his pitches with consistency, to have the same velocity and the same movement on every fastball and simply to vary the location and pitch selection to keep the hitter off-balance. If fastballs show different amounts of movement, they're going to be difficult to control and thus throw with pinpoint control.
The chart from May 5 shots Beckett throwing two-seamers and changeups with varying wildly varying amounts of movement. You couldn't draw a circle around that group of data points; you'd have to draw an awkward-looking oval. His changeups and two-seamers from Aug. 7, though, fit neatly into a confined area and indeed could be contained within a pretty small circle.
That's what consistency and pinpoint control looks like.
Saturday, August 8, 2009
Welcome back, Red Sox bullpen
Well, you can't pin that one on the pitching.
Not only did Josh Beckett pitch seven sensational innings -- he now has an ERA+ of 151, fifth-best in the American League -- but a Red Sox bullpen that has seen its ups and downs over the last couple of months pitched 7 2/3 more sensational innings to push Friday night's epic to 15 innings.
The impressive outing from the group of pirate impersonators -- they wear shirts with a skull and crossbones that say, "The beatings will continue until morale improves" -- is all part of the reversal of a downward trend over the first three months of the season:
April: 2.88 ERA
May: 3.04
June: 3.82
A bullpen that had been so untouchable had begun to show some cracks in the foundation. The June 30 meltdown in Baltimore was most notable, but Takashi Saito (3.72 ERA in June), Manny Delcarmen (4.00), Justin Masterson (4.38), Hideki Okajima (5.25) and Daniel Bard (5.40) all had started to see their ERAs tick upward.
But things have begun to trend back to the other way in July and August -- particularly since the All-Star break:
Hideki Okajima: 1.04 ERA
Daniel Bard: 1.12
Takashi Saito: 1.93
Ramon Ramirez: 1.93
Jonathan Papelbon: 2.16
Manny Delcarmen: 4.63
And Friday night only exemplified the way the unit has bounced back from some of the potholes it hit in June and early July:
Okajima: 1 1/3 IP, 1 K
With such a short porch in right field and the Yankees' lineup stacked with switch-hitters, Francona first turned to Okajima to turn those switch-hitters around and make them hit from the right side of the plate. Okajima struck out Melky Cabrera and got Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon to hit relatively harmless fly balls.
Bard: 2/3 IP, 1 BB, 2 K
By the time Mark Teixeira came to the plate, though, Okajima had thrown 25 pitches and it was time for Daniel Bard. The rookie threw a couple of sliders for called strikes on the outside part of the plate and then blew a 98-mile-an-hour fastball past Teixeira for the third strike. Bard pitched himself into a little trouble, walking Hideki Matsui and then balking his baserunners to second and third. But he came up with the biggest pitch of his outing against Jorge Posada, a slider down and in that a fishing Posada couldn't catch.
Ramirez: 2/3 IP, BB
With one out in the 10th, Ramirez walked Eric Hinske and moved him to second with a wild pitch. But he made the pitch he needed to make, a sinker-slider-changeup-whatever-it-is up and away that Melky Cabrera grounded to second for the second out of the inning. But it did advance Hinske to third.
Papelbon: 1 1/3 IP, 2 K
The Red Sox closer always has been at his best this season in high-pressure situations. With the bases empty this season, opponents are OPS'ing .712 against him -- and with runners in scoring position, opponents are OPS'ing .443. With a single runner on third base, the situation Papelbon faced in the 10th inning, opponents are 2 for 24 and have plated the run just three times.
Papelbon went right after Jeter, throwing six straight fastballs, and he blew a 97-mile-an-hour heater right past him to retire the side.
The all-fastball theme didn't abate in the 11th inning, either. Papelbon has mixed sliders and splitfingered fastballs to his repertoire all season, but he threw a four-seam fastball on 15 of his 16 pitches and just one splitter. (That was a ball to Damon on his second pitch of the inning.) His 15th fastball of the inning was up and over the plate and right past the flailing bat of Alex Rodriguez.
Delcarmen: 1 IP, 2 BB
He didn't make it easy for himself, walking Posada and Hinske, but Delcarmen also induced three weak fly balls -- the last of which a pop fly to second base on a changeup on the outside corner to Melky Cabrera.
Saito: 1 IP, 1 BB
Rodriguez had a chance to be a hero about half an hour before he ended up being a hero, but Saito wiggled out of a tough spot with two outs in the 13th. Home-plate umpire Chad Fairchild had shown some inconsistency with his zone all night, but two of the first three pitches Saito threw to Rodriguez really appeared to be strikes but were called balls.
Down 3-0 with a runner already on second and Hideki Matsui on deck, Saito had to make his pitches. Possibly suspecting that Rodriguez would have the green light on 3-0, Saito threw a 93-mile-an-hour fastball up and in that Rodriguez chased and missed. Saito then threw a curveball down and away that Rodriguez hit weakly to left field for the third out.
Not only did Josh Beckett pitch seven sensational innings -- he now has an ERA+ of 151, fifth-best in the American League -- but a Red Sox bullpen that has seen its ups and downs over the last couple of months pitched 7 2/3 more sensational innings to push Friday night's epic to 15 innings.
The impressive outing from the group of pirate impersonators -- they wear shirts with a skull and crossbones that say, "The beatings will continue until morale improves" -- is all part of the reversal of a downward trend over the first three months of the season:
April: 2.88 ERA
May: 3.04
June: 3.82
A bullpen that had been so untouchable had begun to show some cracks in the foundation. The June 30 meltdown in Baltimore was most notable, but Takashi Saito (3.72 ERA in June), Manny Delcarmen (4.00), Justin Masterson (4.38), Hideki Okajima (5.25) and Daniel Bard (5.40) all had started to see their ERAs tick upward.
But things have begun to trend back to the other way in July and August -- particularly since the All-Star break:
Hideki Okajima: 1.04 ERA
Daniel Bard: 1.12
Takashi Saito: 1.93
Ramon Ramirez: 1.93
Jonathan Papelbon: 2.16
Manny Delcarmen: 4.63
And Friday night only exemplified the way the unit has bounced back from some of the potholes it hit in June and early July:
Okajima: 1 1/3 IP, 1 K
With such a short porch in right field and the Yankees' lineup stacked with switch-hitters, Francona first turned to Okajima to turn those switch-hitters around and make them hit from the right side of the plate. Okajima struck out Melky Cabrera and got Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon to hit relatively harmless fly balls.
Bard: 2/3 IP, 1 BB, 2 K
By the time Mark Teixeira came to the plate, though, Okajima had thrown 25 pitches and it was time for Daniel Bard. The rookie threw a couple of sliders for called strikes on the outside part of the plate and then blew a 98-mile-an-hour fastball past Teixeira for the third strike. Bard pitched himself into a little trouble, walking Hideki Matsui and then balking his baserunners to second and third. But he came up with the biggest pitch of his outing against Jorge Posada, a slider down and in that a fishing Posada couldn't catch.
Ramirez: 2/3 IP, BB
With one out in the 10th, Ramirez walked Eric Hinske and moved him to second with a wild pitch. But he made the pitch he needed to make, a sinker-slider-changeup-whatever-it-is up and away that Melky Cabrera grounded to second for the second out of the inning. But it did advance Hinske to third.
Papelbon: 1 1/3 IP, 2 K
The Red Sox closer always has been at his best this season in high-pressure situations. With the bases empty this season, opponents are OPS'ing .712 against him -- and with runners in scoring position, opponents are OPS'ing .443. With a single runner on third base, the situation Papelbon faced in the 10th inning, opponents are 2 for 24 and have plated the run just three times.
Papelbon went right after Jeter, throwing six straight fastballs, and he blew a 97-mile-an-hour heater right past him to retire the side.
The all-fastball theme didn't abate in the 11th inning, either. Papelbon has mixed sliders and splitfingered fastballs to his repertoire all season, but he threw a four-seam fastball on 15 of his 16 pitches and just one splitter. (That was a ball to Damon on his second pitch of the inning.) His 15th fastball of the inning was up and over the plate and right past the flailing bat of Alex Rodriguez.
Delcarmen: 1 IP, 2 BB
He didn't make it easy for himself, walking Posada and Hinske, but Delcarmen also induced three weak fly balls -- the last of which a pop fly to second base on a changeup on the outside corner to Melky Cabrera.
Saito: 1 IP, 1 BB
Rodriguez had a chance to be a hero about half an hour before he ended up being a hero, but Saito wiggled out of a tough spot with two outs in the 13th. Home-plate umpire Chad Fairchild had shown some inconsistency with his zone all night, but two of the first three pitches Saito threw to Rodriguez really appeared to be strikes but were called balls.
Down 3-0 with a runner already on second and Hideki Matsui on deck, Saito had to make his pitches. Possibly suspecting that Rodriguez would have the green light on 3-0, Saito threw a 93-mile-an-hour fastball up and in that Rodriguez chased and missed. Saito then threw a curveball down and away that Rodriguez hit weakly to left field for the third out.
Monday, July 20, 2009
Ranking the best relievers in baseball
Remember the Ultimate Pitcher Rating exercise from a few days ago? The idea was to take K/BB ratio and GB/FB ratio and multiply them together as a measure of the way a pitcher maximizes strikeouts and ground balls and minimizes walks. (Credit should be given to work done by Ron Shandler and others -- I'm certainly not pretending to be the first person to think this way.)
You can do the same thing with relief pitchers. In some ways, relief pitchers have a job that's different than that of starting pitchers -- for one thing, they often inherit runners that must be stranded. But the basic premise is the same: Get as many outs as possible. The more hitters a reliever strikes out and the more ground balls he induces, the more outs he's going to get.
Check out the relief pitcher leaderboard from 2008:
1. Mariano Rivera, 22.71
2. Jonathan Papelbon, 15.22
3. Chad Qualls, 9.97
4. Rafael Perez, 8.79
5. Carlos Villanueva, 8.55
6. Cla Meredith, 7.89
7. Matt Thornton, 7.82
8. Hong-Chih Kuo, 7.62
9. Brian Shouse, 7.53
10. Jeremy Affeldt, 6.30
(Note: Rivera and Kuo both had sub-2.00 ERAs, while Papelbon, Qualls, Villanueva, Thornton and Shouse all had sub-3.00 ERAs. Of the top 10 relievers in what we'll call Ultimate Pitcher Rating, only Meredith had an ERA over 4.00. That ought to tell you something about the validity of the statistic.)
Here's what the leaderboard looks like this year:
1. Mariano Rivera, 26.70
2. Chad Qualls, 20.39
3. Scott Downs, 12.09
4. Bobby Jenks, 8.90
5. Todd Coffey, 8.13
6. Jonathan Broxton, 8.09
7. Jeremy Affeldt, 7.81
8. Pedro Feliciano, 7.67
9. Joe Nathan, 7.39
10. Manny Corpas, 6.32
***
26. Justin Masterson, 4.80
(Daniel Bard does not qualify but would rank 56th at 2.82.)
87. Manny Delcarmen, 2.03
108. Hideki Okajima, 1.65
122. Jonathan Papelbon, 1.39
124. Ramon Ramirez, 1.36
134. Takashi Saito, 1.18
You might be right to be worried about the Red Sox bullpen, a group of pitchers that has looked more and more mortal as the summer has progressed. Check out the unit's ERA by month so far this season:
* April: 2.88
* May: 3.04
* June: 3.82
* July: 4.00
The Ultimate Pitcher Rating stats show that the unit might be regressing to the mean and not just going through a slump. Check out Papelbon's peripheral numbers over the years, just as one example:
K/BB
2006: 5.77
2007: 5.60
2008: 9.63
2009: 2.28
GB/FB
2006: 0.82
2007: 0.52
2008: 1.58
2009: 0.61
Papelbon's strikeout-to-walk numbers are way off his career norm, and his ground ball-to-fly ball ratio, while in line with what he did in 2006 and 2007, has dropped steeply from 2008.
At one time, it looked as though the Red Sox would be able to cruise into the playoffs with the best bullpen in the game. Now, though, they're showing chinks in the armor -- and the numbers say those chinks might be evidence of real weakness.
(The solution? According to these numbers, Chad Qualls of the last-place Arizona Diamondbacks might be the second-best relief pitcher in baseball behind Mariano Rivera. He's arbitration-eligible after this season and a free agent after the 2010 season. Go get him, Theo. Go get him.)
You can do the same thing with relief pitchers. In some ways, relief pitchers have a job that's different than that of starting pitchers -- for one thing, they often inherit runners that must be stranded. But the basic premise is the same: Get as many outs as possible. The more hitters a reliever strikes out and the more ground balls he induces, the more outs he's going to get.
Check out the relief pitcher leaderboard from 2008:
1. Mariano Rivera, 22.71
2. Jonathan Papelbon, 15.22
3. Chad Qualls, 9.97
4. Rafael Perez, 8.79
5. Carlos Villanueva, 8.55
6. Cla Meredith, 7.89
7. Matt Thornton, 7.82
8. Hong-Chih Kuo, 7.62
9. Brian Shouse, 7.53
10. Jeremy Affeldt, 6.30
(Note: Rivera and Kuo both had sub-2.00 ERAs, while Papelbon, Qualls, Villanueva, Thornton and Shouse all had sub-3.00 ERAs. Of the top 10 relievers in what we'll call Ultimate Pitcher Rating, only Meredith had an ERA over 4.00. That ought to tell you something about the validity of the statistic.)
Here's what the leaderboard looks like this year:
1. Mariano Rivera, 26.70
2. Chad Qualls, 20.39
3. Scott Downs, 12.09
4. Bobby Jenks, 8.90
5. Todd Coffey, 8.13
6. Jonathan Broxton, 8.09
7. Jeremy Affeldt, 7.81
8. Pedro Feliciano, 7.67
9. Joe Nathan, 7.39
10. Manny Corpas, 6.32
***
26. Justin Masterson, 4.80
(Daniel Bard does not qualify but would rank 56th at 2.82.)
87. Manny Delcarmen, 2.03
108. Hideki Okajima, 1.65
122. Jonathan Papelbon, 1.39
124. Ramon Ramirez, 1.36
134. Takashi Saito, 1.18
You might be right to be worried about the Red Sox bullpen, a group of pitchers that has looked more and more mortal as the summer has progressed. Check out the unit's ERA by month so far this season:
* April: 2.88
* May: 3.04
* June: 3.82
* July: 4.00
The Ultimate Pitcher Rating stats show that the unit might be regressing to the mean and not just going through a slump. Check out Papelbon's peripheral numbers over the years, just as one example:
K/BB
2006: 5.77
2007: 5.60
2008: 9.63
2009: 2.28
GB/FB
2006: 0.82
2007: 0.52
2008: 1.58
2009: 0.61
Papelbon's strikeout-to-walk numbers are way off his career norm, and his ground ball-to-fly ball ratio, while in line with what he did in 2006 and 2007, has dropped steeply from 2008.
At one time, it looked as though the Red Sox would be able to cruise into the playoffs with the best bullpen in the game. Now, though, they're showing chinks in the armor -- and the numbers say those chinks might be evidence of real weakness.
(The solution? According to these numbers, Chad Qualls of the last-place Arizona Diamondbacks might be the second-best relief pitcher in baseball behind Mariano Rivera. He's arbitration-eligible after this season and a free agent after the 2010 season. Go get him, Theo. Go get him.)
Thursday, July 16, 2009
Why Roy Halladay matters
Roy Halladay went years pitching in virtual anonymity in Toronto. The location of his team and its inability to get to the playoffs meant he went unnoticed as baseball fans heaped praise upon contemporaries like Brandon Webb, CC Sabathia, Johan Santana, Josh Beckett and others.
All of a sudden, though, so many people are spending so much time talking about Halladay it seems like he's on the verge of being overrated. He's not really the best pitcher in baseball, is he?
Well, actually, if you look at the numbers, he is.
Pitchers can only control so much. They can control their strikeout rate. They can control their walk rate. They also can, to a large extent, control whether the hitter hits the ball on the ground or in the air. (Ground balls aren't as good as strikeouts, of course, but they tend to be far more harmless than fly balls.) It stands to reason that a pitcher who strikes out the most hitters, walks the fewest hitters and induces the most ground balls would be the best pitcher in the game.
To find that pitcher, I took strikeout-to-walk ratio (strikeouts divided by walks) and ground ball-to-fly ball ratio (ground balls divided by fly balls) and multiplied them together. The average pitcher has a K/BB ratio around 2 and a GB/FB ratio around 1.1, so your average pitcher would have a UPR (Ultimate Pitcher Rating) right around 2.2.
(By the way: I don't give enough credit here to FanGraphs.com and its unbelievable "Export to Excel" tool that allows you to export data and play around with it without having to retype it all or do all the calculations by yourself. It's a really, really fantastic system.)
Here's the leaderboard over the last four seasons (with ERA+ in parentheses):
2009
Roy Halladay: 13.17 (151)
Joel Piniero: 10.92 (131)
Dan Haren: 9.43 (226)
Javier Vazquez: 7.80 (142)
Zack Greinke: 6.69 (204)
2008
Roy Halladay: 10.56 (154)
Brandon Webb: 8.88 (139)
Derek Lowe: 8.60 (131)
Mike Mussina: 7.94 (132)
Dan Haren: 6.59 (138)
2007
Derek Lowe: 8.42 (118)
Brandon Webb: 8.26 156)
Felix Hernandez: 8.21 (110)
Greg Maddux: 7.40 (98)
Tim Hudson: 7.17 (128)
(This was the year Halladay had a 3.71 ERA, his highest ERA since 2004. He ranked 11th on the leaderboard, right between Erik Bedard and John Smoltz, with a mark of 5.31.)
2006
Brandon Webb: 14.45 (152)
Roy Halladay: 10.09 (143)
Derek Lowe: 8.65 (124)
Chris Carpenter: 8.05 (144)
Felix Hernandez: 6.89 (98)
It's not a perfect system, but it does say something about the pitchers that perform best in those aspects of the game they can control.
Two names stick out on the list. One is Brandon Webb, a pitcher who hasn't yet had an ERA over 3.60 in his major-league career. (The 13.50 ERA he compiled in his one start this season doesn't count.)
The other is Halladay, a pitcher who indeed may be the best in the game.
All of a sudden, though, so many people are spending so much time talking about Halladay it seems like he's on the verge of being overrated. He's not really the best pitcher in baseball, is he?
Well, actually, if you look at the numbers, he is.
Pitchers can only control so much. They can control their strikeout rate. They can control their walk rate. They also can, to a large extent, control whether the hitter hits the ball on the ground or in the air. (Ground balls aren't as good as strikeouts, of course, but they tend to be far more harmless than fly balls.) It stands to reason that a pitcher who strikes out the most hitters, walks the fewest hitters and induces the most ground balls would be the best pitcher in the game.
To find that pitcher, I took strikeout-to-walk ratio (strikeouts divided by walks) and ground ball-to-fly ball ratio (ground balls divided by fly balls) and multiplied them together. The average pitcher has a K/BB ratio around 2 and a GB/FB ratio around 1.1, so your average pitcher would have a UPR (Ultimate Pitcher Rating) right around 2.2.
(By the way: I don't give enough credit here to FanGraphs.com and its unbelievable "Export to Excel" tool that allows you to export data and play around with it without having to retype it all or do all the calculations by yourself. It's a really, really fantastic system.)
Here's the leaderboard over the last four seasons (with ERA+ in parentheses):
2009
Roy Halladay: 13.17 (151)
Joel Piniero: 10.92 (131)
Dan Haren: 9.43 (226)
Javier Vazquez: 7.80 (142)
Zack Greinke: 6.69 (204)
2008
Roy Halladay: 10.56 (154)
Brandon Webb: 8.88 (139)
Derek Lowe: 8.60 (131)
Mike Mussina: 7.94 (132)
Dan Haren: 6.59 (138)
2007
Derek Lowe: 8.42 (118)
Brandon Webb: 8.26 156)
Felix Hernandez: 8.21 (110)
Greg Maddux: 7.40 (98)
Tim Hudson: 7.17 (128)
(This was the year Halladay had a 3.71 ERA, his highest ERA since 2004. He ranked 11th on the leaderboard, right between Erik Bedard and John Smoltz, with a mark of 5.31.)
2006
Brandon Webb: 14.45 (152)
Roy Halladay: 10.09 (143)
Derek Lowe: 8.65 (124)
Chris Carpenter: 8.05 (144)
Felix Hernandez: 6.89 (98)
It's not a perfect system, but it does say something about the pitchers that perform best in those aspects of the game they can control.
Two names stick out on the list. One is Brandon Webb, a pitcher who hasn't yet had an ERA over 3.60 in his major-league career. (The 13.50 ERA he compiled in his one start this season doesn't count.)
The other is Halladay, a pitcher who indeed may be the best in the game.
Monday, July 13, 2009
Red Sox starters all to get a week off
Clay Buchholz will make a spot start for the Red Sox on Friday in Toronto, his first major-league start of the season. Some will argue -- and they might be right -- that the Red Sox are showcasing Buchholz for potential trade partners, including the Blue Jays.
But it does keep the team's rotation in order as well. Here's how everything is set to line up coming out of the All-Star break:
Tuesday: Beckett/Wakefield
Wednesday: Off
Thursday: Off
Friday: Buchholz (regular rest)
Saturday: Penny (eight days' rest)
Sunday: Lester (eight days' rest)
Monday: Smoltz (eight days' rest)
Tuesday: Beckett (six days' rest)
Wednesday: Wakefield (seven days' rest)
Beckett, if he appears in the All-Star Game is the only one who doesn't get something of a break in this whole arrangement. He'll pitch an inning in St. Louis on one day's rest -- not a huge deal considering he normally throws his bullpen session on one day's rest -- and then only get a couple of days more than normal before he pitches again.
The Red Sox could have given each guy seven days' rest and had either Beckett or Wakefield pitch on five days' rest on Tuesday in Texas.
The temporary insertion of Buchholz into the rotation, though, ensures that everyone will come out of the break pitching on extra rest. That might mean a sharp week of starting pitching. Consider the Red Sox starting pitchers' career numbers when pitching on six or more days' of rest:
Beckett: 2.75 ERA in 31 starts
Smoltz: 2.96 ERA in 48 starts
Penny: 3.17 ERA in 34 starts
Wakefield: 4.08 ERA in 51 starts
Lester: 4.55 ERA in 11 starts
Lester is the only one with subpar numbers after an extended break -- but he also threw 7 1/3 shutout innings at Seattle on 12 days' rest following last season's All-Star break. If you're worried about Lester at this point in the season, you're in a lonely club.
But it does keep the team's rotation in order as well. Here's how everything is set to line up coming out of the All-Star break:
Tuesday: Beckett/Wakefield
Wednesday: Off
Thursday: Off
Friday: Buchholz (regular rest)
Saturday: Penny (eight days' rest)
Sunday: Lester (eight days' rest)
Monday: Smoltz (eight days' rest)
Tuesday: Beckett (six days' rest)
Wednesday: Wakefield (seven days' rest)
Beckett, if he appears in the All-Star Game is the only one who doesn't get something of a break in this whole arrangement. He'll pitch an inning in St. Louis on one day's rest -- not a huge deal considering he normally throws his bullpen session on one day's rest -- and then only get a couple of days more than normal before he pitches again.
The Red Sox could have given each guy seven days' rest and had either Beckett or Wakefield pitch on five days' rest on Tuesday in Texas.
The temporary insertion of Buchholz into the rotation, though, ensures that everyone will come out of the break pitching on extra rest. That might mean a sharp week of starting pitching. Consider the Red Sox starting pitchers' career numbers when pitching on six or more days' of rest:
Beckett: 2.75 ERA in 31 starts
Smoltz: 2.96 ERA in 48 starts
Penny: 3.17 ERA in 34 starts
Wakefield: 4.08 ERA in 51 starts
Lester: 4.55 ERA in 11 starts
Lester is the only one with subpar numbers after an extended break -- but he also threw 7 1/3 shutout innings at Seattle on 12 days' rest following last season's All-Star break. If you're worried about Lester at this point in the season, you're in a lonely club.
Saturday, July 11, 2009
Red Sox pitchers are throwing too many pitches
When Ramon Ramirez was pulled from Thursday night's game against Kansas City, he'd thrown 40 pitches in 1 2/3 innings -- his highest pitch total in any big-league appearance in almost three years.
But he wasn't the only one throwing too many pitches. The entire Red Sox staff -- Ramirez along with Brad Penny, Manny Delcarmen, Justin Masterson and Daniel Bard -- threw 184 pitches in Thursday's loss, an average of more than 20 pitches per inning.
It was the ninth time Red Sox pitchers have thrown more than 180 pitches in a game -- and it was a stark contrast to, say, Josh Beckett's 94-pitch complete-game shutout in late June.
All season long, Red Sox pitchers have thrown too many pitches. Entering play Saturday, in fact, the Red Sox and the Marlins were the only teams to have seen its pitchers throw more than 13,000 pitches this season -- and the Red Sox and the Phillies were the only teams to have seen its pitchers average more than 17 pitches per inning. Here's the pitch-per-inning leaderboard:
1. Phillies, 17.18
2. Red Sox, 17.15
3. Orioles, 16.96
4. Indians, 16.93
5. Nationals, 16.91
6. Cubs, 16.84
7. Yankees, 16.83
8. Mets, 16.82
9. Athletics, 16.81
10. Brewers, 16.79
(You don't need me to tell you that six of those 10 teams have sub-.500 records and that four of them are in last place.)
Relievers have a tendency to throw more pitches per inning than starters, but the vaunted Red Sox bulpen is taking that to an extreme, too. Only the Cubs (18.46) and Nationals (17.9) -- again, that's not exactly company you want to keep -- are averaging more pitches per inning out of the bullpen than the Red Sox (17.85).
And no team in baseball has seen its relievers average more pitches per batter faced than the Red Sox. Here's the Top 10:
t-1. Red Sox, 4.13
t-1. Cubs, 4.13
3. Phillies, 4.01
4. Mariners, 4.01
5. Yankees, 4.00
6. Giants, 3.97
7. Rangers, 3.96
8. Athletics, 3.95
9. Royals, 3.94
10. Tigers, 3.94
Terry Francona has made it his mission to manage his bullpen carefully, to limit the number of innings his relievers throw and even to pay careful attention to how often he has them up and warming in games in which they don't pitch.
But if his relievers aren't going to be more efficient with their pitches, there's not much more he can do.
But he wasn't the only one throwing too many pitches. The entire Red Sox staff -- Ramirez along with Brad Penny, Manny Delcarmen, Justin Masterson and Daniel Bard -- threw 184 pitches in Thursday's loss, an average of more than 20 pitches per inning.
It was the ninth time Red Sox pitchers have thrown more than 180 pitches in a game -- and it was a stark contrast to, say, Josh Beckett's 94-pitch complete-game shutout in late June.
All season long, Red Sox pitchers have thrown too many pitches. Entering play Saturday, in fact, the Red Sox and the Marlins were the only teams to have seen its pitchers throw more than 13,000 pitches this season -- and the Red Sox and the Phillies were the only teams to have seen its pitchers average more than 17 pitches per inning. Here's the pitch-per-inning leaderboard:
1. Phillies, 17.18
2. Red Sox, 17.15
3. Orioles, 16.96
4. Indians, 16.93
5. Nationals, 16.91
6. Cubs, 16.84
7. Yankees, 16.83
8. Mets, 16.82
9. Athletics, 16.81
10. Brewers, 16.79
(You don't need me to tell you that six of those 10 teams have sub-.500 records and that four of them are in last place.)
Relievers have a tendency to throw more pitches per inning than starters, but the vaunted Red Sox bulpen is taking that to an extreme, too. Only the Cubs (18.46) and Nationals (17.9) -- again, that's not exactly company you want to keep -- are averaging more pitches per inning out of the bullpen than the Red Sox (17.85).
And no team in baseball has seen its relievers average more pitches per batter faced than the Red Sox. Here's the Top 10:
t-1. Red Sox, 4.13
t-1. Cubs, 4.13
3. Phillies, 4.01
4. Mariners, 4.01
5. Yankees, 4.00
6. Giants, 3.97
7. Rangers, 3.96
8. Athletics, 3.95
9. Royals, 3.94
10. Tigers, 3.94
Terry Francona has made it his mission to manage his bullpen carefully, to limit the number of innings his relievers throw and even to pay careful attention to how often he has them up and warming in games in which they don't pitch.
But if his relievers aren't going to be more efficient with their pitches, there's not much more he can do.
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
'We pretty much imploded'
It seemed hilarious at the time. It seems like a microcosm now.
Shortstop Julio Lugo threw to first base to retire Felix Pie, a fairly routine defensive play in a fairly routine sixth inning. Dustin Pedroia began to trot off the field, and Lugo, Jeff Bailey and Kevin Youkilis followed. All three of the Red Sox outfielders took a couple of steps toward the dugout. Only catcher Jason Varitek, standing next to a bewildered Nick Markakis, held his ground, waving frantically at the gray shirts leaving the field.
There were only two outs.
"It was my fault," Pedroia said. "I got ahead of myself, and everyone followed me."
Said manager Terry Francona, "I looked up and I saw 'Tek standing there all by himself. The first thing I think is, 'I must be nuts.' I've never seen that. ... I'm looking down at my (lineup) card, like, 'What the hell did I miss?'"
Pitcher Justin Masterson then blew away Robert Andino with a 96-mile-an-hour fastball to retire the side. The Red Sox trotted off the field once again, chuckling to themselves a little bit as the Camden Yards crowd gave them a good old-fashioned Bronx cheer.
"That's really irrelevant to the game," Pedroia said.
Maybe not directly. But it was the very next inning that the Red Sox imploded, blowing a 10-1 lead to an Orioles team they'd beaten eight straight times and handled so easily before a 71-minute rain delay. It was as if they decided to sleepwalk through a game they seemed to have well in hand, particularly with the major leagues' best bullpen taking over for an encouragingly effective John Smoltz.
The collective inability to keep track of the outs in the sixth inning seemed like a goofy fluke at the time. In retrospect, it was a bad, bad omen.
"It would have been funnier to talk about under difference circumstances," Francona said.
The Red Sox lost to the Orioles on Tuesday night in the type of game that can become a turning point if they let it, the type of game that can snowball for the whole team the way it snowballed for the bullpen in the seventh and eighth innings.
Masterson, so dominant in the fifth and sixth innings, allowed a line-drive double to Luke Scott and a no-doubt-about-it home run to Oscar Salazar. He then gave way to Manny Delcarmen, who allowed an RBI single to Pie. Delcarmen gave way to Hideki Okajima, who retired the side in the seventh but allowed four straight hits to open the bottom of the eighth. Okajima gave way to Takashi Saito, who allowed a sacrifice fly and a tough-luck single down the left-field line. Saito then gave way to closer Jonathan Papelbon, who struck out Pie but gave up a ringing double to Nick Markakis that gave the Orioles the lead.
"We pretty much imploded," Papelbon said. "I can't think of any better word to use. That's just what happened."
Said Francona, "We wanted to get to the lefties" -- Markakis and Aubrey Huff -- "for Oki, but that wasn't happening. We sandwiched Manny in there and even stayed with Oki to start the next inning because we wanted to get through (switch-hitter Matt) Wieters. Nothing we did worked."
At the same time, after the rain delay, Red Sox bats went virtually silent against Dave Hendrickson, a journeyman junkballer relegated to the bullpen because he had a 6.35 ERA as a starter. The last time the Red Sox saw him, he pitched the first five innings of what turned out to be a 12-1 win. Tuesday's game looked like it was headed that way before the Orioles started hitting rockets all over the place.
It even looked like the Red Sox would survive the scare, would emerge to smile about the near-miss, until Markakis launched a Papelbon fastball to left-center field to drive home the tying and go-ahead runs.
"We still held onto the lead until that big hit Markakis got," Pedroia said. "It felt like we were fine until that ball that he hit. I was hoping it would have at least bounced over (the fence) to keep (Brian) Roberts at third, but it didn't work out for us."
Nothing did.
The last time the Red Sox blew a lead of this magnitude, back in 1989, insult and injury came hand in hand: Second baseman Marty Barrett had expected to have the day off; he pinch-hit in the ninth inning only because a 10-0 lead had turned into an 11-11 tie. Barrett tripped over first base running out a ground ball and tore up his knee and never was the same player again. Two years later, not yet 33 years old, he was out of baseball.
That's the silver lining: No one got hurt on Tuesday night. Everyone emerged safe and sound.
Even better, the Red Sox ace is pitching on Wednesday.
"There's games in the year you just chalk up to fluke," Smoltz said. "Our bullpen is outstanding. You give credit where credit is due: Baltimore took advantage of every opportunity. They got the bloops to fall. They got some big hits late. They got some two-out hits. But as far as our bullpen is concerned, this will sting a little bit, but when you've got Josh Beckett on the mound tomorrow, he has a tendency to erase that. ...
"It's just one of those games where you shake your head because you can't believe what you just saw."
Shortstop Julio Lugo threw to first base to retire Felix Pie, a fairly routine defensive play in a fairly routine sixth inning. Dustin Pedroia began to trot off the field, and Lugo, Jeff Bailey and Kevin Youkilis followed. All three of the Red Sox outfielders took a couple of steps toward the dugout. Only catcher Jason Varitek, standing next to a bewildered Nick Markakis, held his ground, waving frantically at the gray shirts leaving the field.
There were only two outs.
"It was my fault," Pedroia said. "I got ahead of myself, and everyone followed me."
Said manager Terry Francona, "I looked up and I saw 'Tek standing there all by himself. The first thing I think is, 'I must be nuts.' I've never seen that. ... I'm looking down at my (lineup) card, like, 'What the hell did I miss?'"
Pitcher Justin Masterson then blew away Robert Andino with a 96-mile-an-hour fastball to retire the side. The Red Sox trotted off the field once again, chuckling to themselves a little bit as the Camden Yards crowd gave them a good old-fashioned Bronx cheer.
"That's really irrelevant to the game," Pedroia said.
Maybe not directly. But it was the very next inning that the Red Sox imploded, blowing a 10-1 lead to an Orioles team they'd beaten eight straight times and handled so easily before a 71-minute rain delay. It was as if they decided to sleepwalk through a game they seemed to have well in hand, particularly with the major leagues' best bullpen taking over for an encouragingly effective John Smoltz.
The collective inability to keep track of the outs in the sixth inning seemed like a goofy fluke at the time. In retrospect, it was a bad, bad omen.
"It would have been funnier to talk about under difference circumstances," Francona said.
The Red Sox lost to the Orioles on Tuesday night in the type of game that can become a turning point if they let it, the type of game that can snowball for the whole team the way it snowballed for the bullpen in the seventh and eighth innings.
Masterson, so dominant in the fifth and sixth innings, allowed a line-drive double to Luke Scott and a no-doubt-about-it home run to Oscar Salazar. He then gave way to Manny Delcarmen, who allowed an RBI single to Pie. Delcarmen gave way to Hideki Okajima, who retired the side in the seventh but allowed four straight hits to open the bottom of the eighth. Okajima gave way to Takashi Saito, who allowed a sacrifice fly and a tough-luck single down the left-field line. Saito then gave way to closer Jonathan Papelbon, who struck out Pie but gave up a ringing double to Nick Markakis that gave the Orioles the lead.
"We pretty much imploded," Papelbon said. "I can't think of any better word to use. That's just what happened."
Said Francona, "We wanted to get to the lefties" -- Markakis and Aubrey Huff -- "for Oki, but that wasn't happening. We sandwiched Manny in there and even stayed with Oki to start the next inning because we wanted to get through (switch-hitter Matt) Wieters. Nothing we did worked."
At the same time, after the rain delay, Red Sox bats went virtually silent against Dave Hendrickson, a journeyman junkballer relegated to the bullpen because he had a 6.35 ERA as a starter. The last time the Red Sox saw him, he pitched the first five innings of what turned out to be a 12-1 win. Tuesday's game looked like it was headed that way before the Orioles started hitting rockets all over the place.
It even looked like the Red Sox would survive the scare, would emerge to smile about the near-miss, until Markakis launched a Papelbon fastball to left-center field to drive home the tying and go-ahead runs.
"We still held onto the lead until that big hit Markakis got," Pedroia said. "It felt like we were fine until that ball that he hit. I was hoping it would have at least bounced over (the fence) to keep (Brian) Roberts at third, but it didn't work out for us."
Nothing did.
The last time the Red Sox blew a lead of this magnitude, back in 1989, insult and injury came hand in hand: Second baseman Marty Barrett had expected to have the day off; he pinch-hit in the ninth inning only because a 10-0 lead had turned into an 11-11 tie. Barrett tripped over first base running out a ground ball and tore up his knee and never was the same player again. Two years later, not yet 33 years old, he was out of baseball.
That's the silver lining: No one got hurt on Tuesday night. Everyone emerged safe and sound.
Even better, the Red Sox ace is pitching on Wednesday.
"There's games in the year you just chalk up to fluke," Smoltz said. "Our bullpen is outstanding. You give credit where credit is due: Baltimore took advantage of every opportunity. They got the bloops to fall. They got some big hits late. They got some two-out hits. But as far as our bullpen is concerned, this will sting a little bit, but when you've got Josh Beckett on the mound tomorrow, he has a tendency to erase that. ...
"It's just one of those games where you shake your head because you can't believe what you just saw."
Sunday, June 28, 2009
Red Sox pitchers tend to see long at-bats, too
You already know that the Red Sox boast a pitch-grinding lineup, that four Red Sox players rank among the American League leaders in pitches per plate appearance.
But it's not just the hitters.
As a team, Red Sox pitchers throw more pitches per plate appeance (3.93) than any other American League team. Individually, here's a cross-section of the American League leaderboard:
1. Erik Bedard, Seattle: 4.10
2. Jon Lester: 4.04
3. Justin Verlander, Detroit: 4.03
4. Matt Garza, Tampa Bay: 4.00
5. Josh Outman, Oakland: 4.00
8. Brad Penny: 3.95
14. Josh Beckett: 3.91
23. Justin Masterson: 3.85
59. Tim Wakefield: 3.47
Obviously, while better hitters tend to see more pitches, the opposite does not hold true for pitchers. Strikeout pitchers, after all, are going to throw more pitches per plate appearance than contact pitchers.
And, not surprisingly, the Red Sox average more pitches per start (100) than any other American League team and have seen their starters throw more than 100 pitches more times (42) than any other American League team, too.
But it's not just the hitters.
As a team, Red Sox pitchers throw more pitches per plate appeance (3.93) than any other American League team. Individually, here's a cross-section of the American League leaderboard:
1. Erik Bedard, Seattle: 4.10
2. Jon Lester: 4.04
3. Justin Verlander, Detroit: 4.03
4. Matt Garza, Tampa Bay: 4.00
5. Josh Outman, Oakland: 4.00
8. Brad Penny: 3.95
14. Josh Beckett: 3.91
23. Justin Masterson: 3.85
59. Tim Wakefield: 3.47
Obviously, while better hitters tend to see more pitches, the opposite does not hold true for pitchers. Strikeout pitchers, after all, are going to throw more pitches per plate appearance than contact pitchers.
And, not surprisingly, the Red Sox average more pitches per start (100) than any other American League team and have seen their starters throw more than 100 pitches more times (42) than any other American League team, too.
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Tracking reliever use a difficult endeavor
ESPN.com's Buster Olney has put together a series he calls the "Bullpen Management Index" in which he examines use -- and abuse -- of relievers by each major league team. For example, he leads off today's entry with the Atlanta Braves:
Only four National League teams have gotten more innings out of their rotation than the Braves, whose rotation is anchored by Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez and Jair Jurrjens, and yet Atlanta has five relievers on pace to make 73 or more appearances, including Peter Moylan, who is on track for 87 appearances. Several Braves relievers are on pace to obliterate career highs in appearances and/or innings pitched, not a good sign.
But innings and appearances aren't all there is to it. Red Sox manager Terry Francona has talked quite a bit this season about the significance of warm-up pitches, of getting warm and sitting down and getting warm again, and how that can contribute as much to a reliever's fatigue as throwing 12 pitches in a game situation.
Baseball stats have come a long way over the last few years. We can predict future success far better using tools like BAPIP than we ever could just with batting averages and earned run averages.
But there's one final frontier no one yet has solved: Relief pitchers. No one yet has figured out how to solve the riddle that is the relief pitcher. Just look at the Tampa Bay Rays: A year ago, Grant Balfour (1.54 ERA), J.P. Howell (2.22 ERA) and Dan Wheeler (3.12 ERA) led a bullpen that played a huge role in getting the Rays to the World Series. So far this year, Howell has a 1.82 ERA but Wheeler (4.24 ERA) and Balfour (5.01 ERA) haven't been close to what they were a year ago.
Olney, by looking at appearances and innings pitched, certainly is going in the right direction: The more managers wear down their relievers, the worse they're going to pitch down the stretch. But, again, it's not just appearances.
Francona, in the Red Sox dugout, begins each game with a couple of charts taped to the wall. One chart represents his bullpen -- and it breaks down each pitcher by usage over the last week. If he threw 17 pitches in two-thirds of an inning the day before, the chart will say that. If he got up in the bullpen the day before, the chart will say that, too -- with an extra indication if he got up in the bullpen more than once.
Throwing and sitting and throwing and sitting can produce more wear and tear on a middle reliever's arm than pitching in a game. Francona makes an effort not to get guys up more than once; he usually doesn't warm up more than one pitcher at a time just because he doesn't want to waste bullets in the bullpen.
Olney, though, doesn't have bullpen stats. No one does. The Red Sox track usage of their own pitchers week to week and might even keep the stats for each guy over the course of the season, but no one has any sort of warmed-up-in-the-bullpen stat.
Until we can really measure how often each pitcher has to throw -- including whether or not a guy has to get up and throw two or three different times before coming into a game -- we're not going to be able to figure out which relievers have been used conservatively and which relievers are about to have their arms fall off.
Only four National League teams have gotten more innings out of their rotation than the Braves, whose rotation is anchored by Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez and Jair Jurrjens, and yet Atlanta has five relievers on pace to make 73 or more appearances, including Peter Moylan, who is on track for 87 appearances. Several Braves relievers are on pace to obliterate career highs in appearances and/or innings pitched, not a good sign.
But innings and appearances aren't all there is to it. Red Sox manager Terry Francona has talked quite a bit this season about the significance of warm-up pitches, of getting warm and sitting down and getting warm again, and how that can contribute as much to a reliever's fatigue as throwing 12 pitches in a game situation.
Baseball stats have come a long way over the last few years. We can predict future success far better using tools like BAPIP than we ever could just with batting averages and earned run averages.
But there's one final frontier no one yet has solved: Relief pitchers. No one yet has figured out how to solve the riddle that is the relief pitcher. Just look at the Tampa Bay Rays: A year ago, Grant Balfour (1.54 ERA), J.P. Howell (2.22 ERA) and Dan Wheeler (3.12 ERA) led a bullpen that played a huge role in getting the Rays to the World Series. So far this year, Howell has a 1.82 ERA but Wheeler (4.24 ERA) and Balfour (5.01 ERA) haven't been close to what they were a year ago.
Olney, by looking at appearances and innings pitched, certainly is going in the right direction: The more managers wear down their relievers, the worse they're going to pitch down the stretch. But, again, it's not just appearances.
Francona, in the Red Sox dugout, begins each game with a couple of charts taped to the wall. One chart represents his bullpen -- and it breaks down each pitcher by usage over the last week. If he threw 17 pitches in two-thirds of an inning the day before, the chart will say that. If he got up in the bullpen the day before, the chart will say that, too -- with an extra indication if he got up in the bullpen more than once.
Throwing and sitting and throwing and sitting can produce more wear and tear on a middle reliever's arm than pitching in a game. Francona makes an effort not to get guys up more than once; he usually doesn't warm up more than one pitcher at a time just because he doesn't want to waste bullets in the bullpen.
Olney, though, doesn't have bullpen stats. No one does. The Red Sox track usage of their own pitchers week to week and might even keep the stats for each guy over the course of the season, but no one has any sort of warmed-up-in-the-bullpen stat.
Until we can really measure how often each pitcher has to throw -- including whether or not a guy has to get up and throw two or three different times before coming into a game -- we're not going to be able to figure out which relievers have been used conservatively and which relievers are about to have their arms fall off.
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
How the Red Sox rotation shakes out
Terry Francona and John Smoltz both made the announcement that Smoltz will make his first Red Sox start on June 25, a week from Thursday, against the woeful Washington Nationals.
Daisuke Matsuzaka, who was hammered today in a Boston Herald column Francona did not enjoy -- "I feel bad for the players sometimes," he said. "I didn't realize what the players were going through publicly, and I feel bad about that." -- will not be bumped from the rotation. Instead, he'll be pushed back a day. So, too, will the rest of the Red Sox starting staff -- and the Red Sox will indeed employ a six-man starting rotation until the All-Star Game.
(That means the first big-league stint of rookie Daniel Bard is likely to come to an end on June 24, the day before Smoltz is activated. Bard can easily be dispatched back to Pawtucket, and he and Clay Buchholz can resume carving up Triple-A hitters together.)
Here's how the Red Sox rotation would shake out in the 10 days or so after Smoltz makes his Red Sox debut:
* June 25 at Washington: Smoltz (seven days' rest)
* June 26 at Atlanta: Matsuzaka (six days' rest)
* June 27 at Atlanta: Josh Beckett (six days' rest)
* June 28 at Atlanta: Tim Wakefield (six days' rest)
* June 29 at Baltimore: Brad Penny (five days' rest)
* June 30 at Baltimore: Jon Lester (five days' rest)
* July 1 at Baltimore: Smoltz (five days' rest)
* July 3 vs. Seattle: Matsuzaka (six days' rest)
* July 4 vs. Seattle: Beckett (six days' rest)
* July 5 vs. Seattle: Wakefield (six days' rest)
* July 6 vs. Oakland: Penny (six days' rest)
* July 7 vs. Oakland: Lester (six days' rest)
* July 8 vs. Oakland: Smoltz (six days' rest)
It's a gamble. There's no question about it. Pitching on five or six days' rest is an adjustment for players accustomed to pitching on four days' rest; Wakefield and Smoltz both have better career numbers on four days' rest than five.
On top of that, removing Bard from the bullpen would increase the strain on the remaining relievers -- and Hideki Okajima and Ramon Ramirez already are among the American League leaders in appearances.
But if the Red Sox can get to the All-Star Game without having lost a starter or burned out their bullpen, they'll be in a position of tremendous strength as they decide what do to with their glut of quality starting pitching.
Daisuke Matsuzaka, who was hammered today in a Boston Herald column Francona did not enjoy -- "I feel bad for the players sometimes," he said. "I didn't realize what the players were going through publicly, and I feel bad about that." -- will not be bumped from the rotation. Instead, he'll be pushed back a day. So, too, will the rest of the Red Sox starting staff -- and the Red Sox will indeed employ a six-man starting rotation until the All-Star Game.
(That means the first big-league stint of rookie Daniel Bard is likely to come to an end on June 24, the day before Smoltz is activated. Bard can easily be dispatched back to Pawtucket, and he and Clay Buchholz can resume carving up Triple-A hitters together.)
Here's how the Red Sox rotation would shake out in the 10 days or so after Smoltz makes his Red Sox debut:
* June 25 at Washington: Smoltz (seven days' rest)
* June 26 at Atlanta: Matsuzaka (six days' rest)
* June 27 at Atlanta: Josh Beckett (six days' rest)
* June 28 at Atlanta: Tim Wakefield (six days' rest)
* June 29 at Baltimore: Brad Penny (five days' rest)
* June 30 at Baltimore: Jon Lester (five days' rest)
* July 1 at Baltimore: Smoltz (five days' rest)
* July 3 vs. Seattle: Matsuzaka (six days' rest)
* July 4 vs. Seattle: Beckett (six days' rest)
* July 5 vs. Seattle: Wakefield (six days' rest)
* July 6 vs. Oakland: Penny (six days' rest)
* July 7 vs. Oakland: Lester (six days' rest)
* July 8 vs. Oakland: Smoltz (six days' rest)
It's a gamble. There's no question about it. Pitching on five or six days' rest is an adjustment for players accustomed to pitching on four days' rest; Wakefield and Smoltz both have better career numbers on four days' rest than five.
On top of that, removing Bard from the bullpen would increase the strain on the remaining relievers -- and Hideki Okajima and Ramon Ramirez already are among the American League leaders in appearances.
But if the Red Sox can get to the All-Star Game without having lost a starter or burned out their bullpen, they'll be in a position of tremendous strength as they decide what do to with their glut of quality starting pitching.
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