The Red Sox finished last season with a bullpen ERA of 3.80, second-best in the American League behind the Oakland Athletics' 3.54 and well below the American League average of 4.17. The same group returns intact this season and will be expected to put up similar numbers.
It's fair to wonder, though, if it will.
The Red Sox bullpen looked like one of the best in baseball last season mostly because its pitchers stranded 71 percent of inherited runners last season, second-best in the American League. Only the Yankees (73 percent) were better. The American League average was 66 percent.
That number might not be sustainable. While the American League average has held steady around 66 percent over the last few seasons, the Red Sox strand percentage has bounced around quite a bit:
2009: 71 percent
2008: 68 percent
2007: 77 percent
2006: 62 percent
2005: 61 percent
2004: 66 percent
The smart money has the Red Sox bullpen's strand rate regressing to the mean this season.
"When we had guys on base and guys in scoring position, we actually pitched really well last year," Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein told WEEI this morning. "That’s the type of thing that you can’t really count on year after year."
This is where Epstein's idea of "clutch pitching" comes into play. Stranding inherited runners often can be a byproduct of luck -- or, as Epstein made clear earlier this offseason, lousy defense. One reason Epstein made it a point to upgrade his defense was the fact that he couldn't realistically expect his relivers to pitch as "clutch" as they had last season.
ERA can be a bad way to evaluate relief pitchers because so many outside factors contribute. If a reliever enters a game with a runner on second and promptly gives up an RBI single, that run isn't charged to his record. If a reliever leaves a game with the bases loaded but the next pitcher strikes out the side, no runs are charged to his record.
As elite as the Red Sox bullpen seemed to be last season, its individual pitchers didn't exactly stand out in the statistical categories that have nothing to do with inherited runners:
Strikeout-to-walk ratio (min. 45 IP)
16. Jonathan Papelbon, 3.17
20. Daniel Bard, 2.86
23. Hideki Okajima, 2.52
48. Ramon Ramirez, 1.63
65. Manny Delcarmen, 1.29
(In case you're wondering, there were 67 relievers who qualified.)
Walks and hits per inning pitched
19. Jonathan Papelbon, 1.147
27. Hideki Okajima, 1.262
30. Daniel Bard, 1.277
36. Ramon Ramirez, 1.335
60. Manny Delcarmen, 1.642
Opponents' on-base plus slugging (OPS)
11. Jonathan Papelbon, .600
29. Daniel Bard, .690
34. Hideki Okajima, .704
36. Ramon Ramirez, .711
56. Manny Delcarmen, .796
Other than Papelbon -- and this is the same Papelbon, don't forget, who allowed more baserunners than usual -- the Red Sox bullpen was a middle-of-the-pack team in all three of the above categories. Manny Delcarmen and Ramon Ramirez both finished the season in the bottom half of the American League in WHIP and opponents' OPS, and not one Red Sox reliever finished in the top 10 in any of the above categories.
The revamped Red Sox defense, it seems, wasn't just about the starting pitchers. The revamped Red Sox defense might be a big help to the bullpen, too.
Showing posts with label okajima. Show all posts
Showing posts with label okajima. Show all posts
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Monday, November 30, 2009
A handful of options for the Red Sox bullpen
As much as we're all focused on who will play left field and shortstop and third base next season, it's important to remember the part of the roster with which Theo Epstein had the most success last season -- and thus the part of the roster he'll undoubtedly try to tweak once again this winter: The bullpen.
Jonathan Papelbon almost certainly will be back. Hideki Okajima has been as consistent as it gets over the last few years. Daniel Bard is an up-and-coming flamethrower -- though no one in this particular neighborhood is completely convinced he's not going to be a starting pitcher at some point. Manny Delcarmen endured his rockiest season. Ramon Ramirez was untouchable in April and May but very touchable in August and September. Takashi Saito has been outrighted off the 40-man roster and likely won't be back. A endless cast of characters rotated through the final spot in the bullpen once Justin Masterson was traded to Cleveland.
(Postscript: And now Billy Wagner is gone, on his way to Atlanta to become the Braves' new closer.)
All of that means Epstein has to be surveying the free-agent market -- between phone calls to Jason Bay's agent, of course -- to see who might be an upgrade on what he has:
Kiko Calero: Even including a miserable season in 2007, the 34-year-old righty has a career 3.24 ERA in 312 appearances out of the bullpen. A year ago, he had a 1.95 ERA and struck out better than a batter an inning and allowed just one home run in 60 innings pitched. His career walk rate is a tick above the major-league average, but so too is his strikeout rate.
Even better: He won't cost a draft pick.
Octavio Dotel: The 36-year-old righty isn't a closer anymore, but he had a 3.55 ERA in 129 1/3 innings spanning two seasons with the White Sox, striking out more than a hitter an inning in both of his years in Chicago. The injury issues that plagued him in Oakland, New York, Kansas City and Atlanta seem to be behind him, and he's evolving as a pitcher: He added a cutter to his repertoire last season.
The downside to Dotel is that he's a Type A free agent who would require the forfeiture of a first-round pick -- though if the Red Sox signed both Dotel and Marco Scutaro, one of the two would mean forfeiting only a second-round pick. Heck, if the Red Sox sign Matt Holliday, they'd only lose a third-round pick for either Dotel or Scutaro.
Mike Gonzalez: Like Wagner, this lefty almost certainly will be looking for job where he can close. (The Pirates, the team with whom he had an All-Star caliber year in 2006, reportedly are interested.) If he doesn't find that, though, he could be a perfect replacement for Wagner in front of Papelbon in the Red Sox bullpen. Gonzalez had a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.85 in his last two seasons in Atlanta, and both righties and lefties have OPS'ed less than .650 against him in his career. Like Dotel, he's a Type A free agent.
Kevin Gregg: Another Type A free agent, the former Cubs and Marlins closer endured a rocky season (4.72 ERA) en route to losing his job at the back end of the bullpen. He has, however, allowed just 14 percent of inherited runners to score in the last two seasons -- even if his walk rate has been above the major-league average in each of the last three seasons.
Brandon Lyon: The righty once traded for Curt Schilling had a 2.86 ERA in setup duty with Detroit this season thanks in large part to a ground ball-to-fly ball ratio well above the major-league average. He allowed inherited runners to score at a less-than-impressive 36 percent clip last season, but his strikeout rate has increased in each of the last two seasons.
Justin Miller: The former disappointment with Toronto has a 3.65 ERA and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.15 over his past three seasons in Florida and San Francisco. His 3.18 ERA last season might be something of a mirage, though, given his K/BB ratio of 1.33, his BABIP of .248 and his inherited runners strand rate of 30 percent.
Chan Ho Park: At one time a devastating free-agent signing in Texas -- the Rangers gave him a $65 million contract after the 2001 season -- Park reinvented himself as a relief pitcher with the Dodgers and Phillies. His strikeout rate is right around the major-league average (7.9 per nine innings last season) but his walk rate is impressive (3.6) and has dropped significantly since his lousy years as a starter. One possible snag: Park told The Korea Times earlier this month that he wants to be a starting pitcher again.
B.J. Ryan: The closer cast off by the Blue Jays last season saw his strikeout rate plummet and his walk rate skyrocket during his years in Toronto, a warning sign for any team interested in him. During his heyday, however, he had a strikeout-to-walk rate around 4.0 and had a sub-3.00 ERA as recently as two seasons ago. The Blue Jays still owe him $10 million next season, so he might come cheap as a flier if he's interested in a chance to redeem himself as a setup man.
Rafael Soriano: There are reports that the Red Sox have requested medical records on the Braves' hard-throwing closer, a 30-year-old with a career 2.92 ERA and strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.51. A year ago, he struck out 12.1 batters per nine innings, and he's flirted with 10.0 and 11.0 several other times during his career. He endured a heavy workload (75 2/3 innings in 77 appearances) a year ago and found himself hit hard by lefties (.746 OPS, though a .330 BABIP didn't help). Still, though, there's a chance he could do what the Red Sox have waited three years for Delcarmen to do -- be the team's primary shut-down reliever against righties.
Claudio Vargas: Another former starter who resurrected his career as a reliever, Vargas had a 1.78 ERA in 30 1/3 innings after being traded to the Milwaukee Brewers a year ago. He's not a pitcher who will miss bats much, though, and he's more of a fly-ball pitcher than a ground-ball pitcher. It would be easy to attribute his success, in fact, to a spectacularly low .202 BABIP a year ago -- a mark he's not likely to replicate.
Jonathan Papelbon almost certainly will be back. Hideki Okajima has been as consistent as it gets over the last few years. Daniel Bard is an up-and-coming flamethrower -- though no one in this particular neighborhood is completely convinced he's not going to be a starting pitcher at some point. Manny Delcarmen endured his rockiest season. Ramon Ramirez was untouchable in April and May but very touchable in August and September. Takashi Saito has been outrighted off the 40-man roster and likely won't be back. A endless cast of characters rotated through the final spot in the bullpen once Justin Masterson was traded to Cleveland.
(Postscript: And now Billy Wagner is gone, on his way to Atlanta to become the Braves' new closer.)
All of that means Epstein has to be surveying the free-agent market -- between phone calls to Jason Bay's agent, of course -- to see who might be an upgrade on what he has:
Kiko Calero: Even including a miserable season in 2007, the 34-year-old righty has a career 3.24 ERA in 312 appearances out of the bullpen. A year ago, he had a 1.95 ERA and struck out better than a batter an inning and allowed just one home run in 60 innings pitched. His career walk rate is a tick above the major-league average, but so too is his strikeout rate.
Even better: He won't cost a draft pick.
Octavio Dotel: The 36-year-old righty isn't a closer anymore, but he had a 3.55 ERA in 129 1/3 innings spanning two seasons with the White Sox, striking out more than a hitter an inning in both of his years in Chicago. The injury issues that plagued him in Oakland, New York, Kansas City and Atlanta seem to be behind him, and he's evolving as a pitcher: He added a cutter to his repertoire last season.
The downside to Dotel is that he's a Type A free agent who would require the forfeiture of a first-round pick -- though if the Red Sox signed both Dotel and Marco Scutaro, one of the two would mean forfeiting only a second-round pick. Heck, if the Red Sox sign Matt Holliday, they'd only lose a third-round pick for either Dotel or Scutaro.
Mike Gonzalez: Like Wagner, this lefty almost certainly will be looking for job where he can close. (The Pirates, the team with whom he had an All-Star caliber year in 2006, reportedly are interested.) If he doesn't find that, though, he could be a perfect replacement for Wagner in front of Papelbon in the Red Sox bullpen. Gonzalez had a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.85 in his last two seasons in Atlanta, and both righties and lefties have OPS'ed less than .650 against him in his career. Like Dotel, he's a Type A free agent.
Kevin Gregg: Another Type A free agent, the former Cubs and Marlins closer endured a rocky season (4.72 ERA) en route to losing his job at the back end of the bullpen. He has, however, allowed just 14 percent of inherited runners to score in the last two seasons -- even if his walk rate has been above the major-league average in each of the last three seasons.
Brandon Lyon: The righty once traded for Curt Schilling had a 2.86 ERA in setup duty with Detroit this season thanks in large part to a ground ball-to-fly ball ratio well above the major-league average. He allowed inherited runners to score at a less-than-impressive 36 percent clip last season, but his strikeout rate has increased in each of the last two seasons.
Justin Miller: The former disappointment with Toronto has a 3.65 ERA and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.15 over his past three seasons in Florida and San Francisco. His 3.18 ERA last season might be something of a mirage, though, given his K/BB ratio of 1.33, his BABIP of .248 and his inherited runners strand rate of 30 percent.
Chan Ho Park: At one time a devastating free-agent signing in Texas -- the Rangers gave him a $65 million contract after the 2001 season -- Park reinvented himself as a relief pitcher with the Dodgers and Phillies. His strikeout rate is right around the major-league average (7.9 per nine innings last season) but his walk rate is impressive (3.6) and has dropped significantly since his lousy years as a starter. One possible snag: Park told The Korea Times earlier this month that he wants to be a starting pitcher again.
B.J. Ryan: The closer cast off by the Blue Jays last season saw his strikeout rate plummet and his walk rate skyrocket during his years in Toronto, a warning sign for any team interested in him. During his heyday, however, he had a strikeout-to-walk rate around 4.0 and had a sub-3.00 ERA as recently as two seasons ago. The Blue Jays still owe him $10 million next season, so he might come cheap as a flier if he's interested in a chance to redeem himself as a setup man.
Rafael Soriano: There are reports that the Red Sox have requested medical records on the Braves' hard-throwing closer, a 30-year-old with a career 2.92 ERA and strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.51. A year ago, he struck out 12.1 batters per nine innings, and he's flirted with 10.0 and 11.0 several other times during his career. He endured a heavy workload (75 2/3 innings in 77 appearances) a year ago and found himself hit hard by lefties (.746 OPS, though a .330 BABIP didn't help). Still, though, there's a chance he could do what the Red Sox have waited three years for Delcarmen to do -- be the team's primary shut-down reliever against righties.
Claudio Vargas: Another former starter who resurrected his career as a reliever, Vargas had a 1.78 ERA in 30 1/3 innings after being traded to the Milwaukee Brewers a year ago. He's not a pitcher who will miss bats much, though, and he's more of a fly-ball pitcher than a ground-ball pitcher. It would be easy to attribute his success, in fact, to a spectacularly low .202 BABIP a year ago -- a mark he's not likely to replicate.
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Picking your spots with the Red Sox bullpen
Theo Epstein constructed perhaps his most impressive bullpen this winter and this summer, acquiring Ramon Ramirez, Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner and promoting Daniel Bard from Triple-A to supplement a group that already had experienced quite a bit of success. Among American League teams, only the Oakland Athletics had a better bullpen ERA during the regular season than the Red Sox.
The postseason, though, is where it counts -- and for all of the group's individual ups and downs, the postseason is where the group's reputation will be made.
But it's not just about talent and execution. It's about Terry Francona and the way he employs his bullpen. Certain relievers thrive in certain situations, and for the Red Sox to get past the Angels (and beyond), he'll need to pick and choose his spots for each of his guys. Here's a primer on how Francona might go about doing that:
Daniel Bard
The rookie went the entire month of July (and beyond) without surrendering an earned run, ripping off a string of 14 innings with an ERA of 0.00. He endured some ups and downs in August and September -- he allowed at least one earned run in six of his 10 appearances in August, for example -- but remains an electric arm with the ability to strike out just about anyone.
Use him: In Games 3 and 4 at Fenway Park. Opponents hit just .207 off the rookie in home games this season, and his 30-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio is astounding. His ERA this season was 1.46 at home and 5.84 on the road.
Don't use him: Against lefties who can go deep. Lefties slugged .488 against him this season and hit four of the home runs he gave up: Johnny Damon, Nick Swisher and Mark Teixeira (twice) hit home runs off him from the left side, but Evan Longoria is the only hitter to have gone deep against him from the right side.
Paul Byrd
The veteran righty came out of retirement this summer to contribute a handful of starts down the stretch, and he'll fill the same role in the playoffs this year that he did last year: Long man out of the bullpen. Byrd made one appearance a year ago, relieving Jon Lester in a Game 3 against Tampa Bay that got out of hand quickly. He gave up an eighth-inning home run in that game to -- you guessed it! -- Rocco Baldelli.
Use him: When a game already has been decided in the early innings. Byrd probably wouldn't even be on the roster if not for the diminishing effectiveness of Manny Delcarmen down the stretch, and his primary use now will be to save the rotation in case of a disastrous start by one of the other starters -- or to make an emergency start if someone gets hurt.
Don't use him: Against lefties, if at all possible. Lefties hit .405 off Byrd in his seven starts -- including seven doubles and three home runs.
Hideki Okajima
The lefty endured one of his most bumpy seasons -- but if you believe in trends, that could be a good omen: He had a lousy ERA in April, June and September but a great ERA in May, July and August. Maybe he's due for another run of being unhittable.
Use him: Against the toughest lefties. Billy Wagner had a slightly lower batting-average-against with lefties (.125 to Okajima's .167), but Okajima had a much better strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.71 to Wagner's 2.67).
Don't use him: When he's inheriting runners. Opponents hit .305 and OBP'ed .380 against Okajima this season with runners on base this season, but they hit just .199 and OBP'ed .259 against him with the bases empty.
Jonathan Papelbon
The closer has seen opponents hit just .189 and slug an amazing .264 against him in the second half, the result of a change in his set position that made him more comfortable even if it increased the wear and tear on his shoulder a little bit. He's well aware he's thrown 25 straight scoreless innings in the playoffs, a run of success he intends to maintain.
Use him: In the game's biggest spots. Opponents hit .128 against Papelbon this season in 86 at-bats with runners in scoring position -- and with the bases loaded, opponents were 1 for 15 this season with 10 strikeouts.
Don't use him: On three days' rest, the only time his control really starts to evaporate. His strikeout-to-walk ratio dipped from 16-to-1 on two days' rest to 13-to-9 on three days' rest, and opponents slugged .409 against him in that situation as well. That makes for a tricky situation in Game 1 -- he'll be on three days' rest after having pitched on Sunday -- but he should be all set to go on a more normal schedule during the rest of the postseason.
Ramon Ramirez
"RamRam" scuffled in the second half but not to the extent of some of his counterparts: His first-half ERA was 2.33, but his second-half ERA still was just 3.48. He throws like a power pitcher but doesn't miss bats like a power pitcher: His strikeout rate is just 6.7 per nine innings, lowest among the relievers left in the bullpen.
Use him: In Games 1, 2 and 5. No Red Sox pitcher has had as much success away from Fenway Park this season as Ramirez: Opponents are hitting .182 off him and slugging .295 off him when the Red Sox are on the road. At home, though, Ramirez has seen opponents hit .285 and slug .477 off him.
Don't use him: Against lefties who can go deep. Lefties slugged .452 against him this season but hit six home runs and eight doubles. When he got hit by lefties, he usually got hit hard.
Takashi Saito
The former Dodgers closer often was used as one of the last relievers out of the bullpen and seemed to benefit from it: His ERA was an impressive 2.43 despite relatively unimpressive peripherals -- including a WHIP of 1.35 and 25 walks issued in 55 2/3 innings.
The Red Sox call him "Sammy," but no one knows why.
Use him: Againstlefties and against switch-hitters with better numbers from the right side. Saito has a pretty severe reverse split -- lefties hit just .195 and slugged just .257 off him -- and that makes him a good weapon against switch-hitters who would prefer to hit righthanded. (This is not the case, however, for the Angels' Kendry Morales or Chone Figgins, both of whom hit better than .300 against righthanded pitchers this season.)
Don't use him: Against righties in a high-leverage situation. Righthanded hitters hit .304 and slugged .500 against Saito this season, including four home runs. No Red Sox reliever allowed more home runs to righthanded hitters.
Billy Wagner
The veteran lefty has terrible career numbers in the playoffs: In his years with the Astros and Mets combined, he has a 9.58 career ERA. It's hard to know what to make of that, though: You can't predict this season's results based on what he did in 1997, can you?
Use him: When you have some righties sandwiched in with a run of lefties. Wagner pitched effectively against lefties, of course, but he actually had just as much success against righties in his short run in Boston -- a .200 batting average against and a 3.5-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In his career, Wagner actually has held righties to a lower batting average (.186) than lefties (.200).
Don't use him: When a walk would be disastrous. Wagner has fought control issues off and on since his arrival, and no reliever on the postseason roster has a higher walk rate than Wagner's 4.6 per nine innings. Then again, the times when a walk would be disastrous are the times a strikeout would be great, and Wagner is averaging 14.5 strikeouts per nine innings since the Red Sox acquired him.
The postseason, though, is where it counts -- and for all of the group's individual ups and downs, the postseason is where the group's reputation will be made.
But it's not just about talent and execution. It's about Terry Francona and the way he employs his bullpen. Certain relievers thrive in certain situations, and for the Red Sox to get past the Angels (and beyond), he'll need to pick and choose his spots for each of his guys. Here's a primer on how Francona might go about doing that:
Daniel Bard
The rookie went the entire month of July (and beyond) without surrendering an earned run, ripping off a string of 14 innings with an ERA of 0.00. He endured some ups and downs in August and September -- he allowed at least one earned run in six of his 10 appearances in August, for example -- but remains an electric arm with the ability to strike out just about anyone.
Use him: In Games 3 and 4 at Fenway Park. Opponents hit just .207 off the rookie in home games this season, and his 30-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio is astounding. His ERA this season was 1.46 at home and 5.84 on the road.
Don't use him: Against lefties who can go deep. Lefties slugged .488 against him this season and hit four of the home runs he gave up: Johnny Damon, Nick Swisher and Mark Teixeira (twice) hit home runs off him from the left side, but Evan Longoria is the only hitter to have gone deep against him from the right side.
Paul Byrd
The veteran righty came out of retirement this summer to contribute a handful of starts down the stretch, and he'll fill the same role in the playoffs this year that he did last year: Long man out of the bullpen. Byrd made one appearance a year ago, relieving Jon Lester in a Game 3 against Tampa Bay that got out of hand quickly. He gave up an eighth-inning home run in that game to -- you guessed it! -- Rocco Baldelli.
Use him: When a game already has been decided in the early innings. Byrd probably wouldn't even be on the roster if not for the diminishing effectiveness of Manny Delcarmen down the stretch, and his primary use now will be to save the rotation in case of a disastrous start by one of the other starters -- or to make an emergency start if someone gets hurt.
Don't use him: Against lefties, if at all possible. Lefties hit .405 off Byrd in his seven starts -- including seven doubles and three home runs.
Hideki Okajima
The lefty endured one of his most bumpy seasons -- but if you believe in trends, that could be a good omen: He had a lousy ERA in April, June and September but a great ERA in May, July and August. Maybe he's due for another run of being unhittable.
Use him: Against the toughest lefties. Billy Wagner had a slightly lower batting-average-against with lefties (.125 to Okajima's .167), but Okajima had a much better strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.71 to Wagner's 2.67).
Don't use him: When he's inheriting runners. Opponents hit .305 and OBP'ed .380 against Okajima this season with runners on base this season, but they hit just .199 and OBP'ed .259 against him with the bases empty.
Jonathan Papelbon
The closer has seen opponents hit just .189 and slug an amazing .264 against him in the second half, the result of a change in his set position that made him more comfortable even if it increased the wear and tear on his shoulder a little bit. He's well aware he's thrown 25 straight scoreless innings in the playoffs, a run of success he intends to maintain.
Use him: In the game's biggest spots. Opponents hit .128 against Papelbon this season in 86 at-bats with runners in scoring position -- and with the bases loaded, opponents were 1 for 15 this season with 10 strikeouts.
Don't use him: On three days' rest, the only time his control really starts to evaporate. His strikeout-to-walk ratio dipped from 16-to-1 on two days' rest to 13-to-9 on three days' rest, and opponents slugged .409 against him in that situation as well. That makes for a tricky situation in Game 1 -- he'll be on three days' rest after having pitched on Sunday -- but he should be all set to go on a more normal schedule during the rest of the postseason.
Ramon Ramirez
"RamRam" scuffled in the second half but not to the extent of some of his counterparts: His first-half ERA was 2.33, but his second-half ERA still was just 3.48. He throws like a power pitcher but doesn't miss bats like a power pitcher: His strikeout rate is just 6.7 per nine innings, lowest among the relievers left in the bullpen.
Use him: In Games 1, 2 and 5. No Red Sox pitcher has had as much success away from Fenway Park this season as Ramirez: Opponents are hitting .182 off him and slugging .295 off him when the Red Sox are on the road. At home, though, Ramirez has seen opponents hit .285 and slug .477 off him.
Don't use him: Against lefties who can go deep. Lefties slugged .452 against him this season but hit six home runs and eight doubles. When he got hit by lefties, he usually got hit hard.
Takashi Saito
The former Dodgers closer often was used as one of the last relievers out of the bullpen and seemed to benefit from it: His ERA was an impressive 2.43 despite relatively unimpressive peripherals -- including a WHIP of 1.35 and 25 walks issued in 55 2/3 innings.
The Red Sox call him "Sammy," but no one knows why.
Use him: Againstlefties and against switch-hitters with better numbers from the right side. Saito has a pretty severe reverse split -- lefties hit just .195 and slugged just .257 off him -- and that makes him a good weapon against switch-hitters who would prefer to hit righthanded. (This is not the case, however, for the Angels' Kendry Morales or Chone Figgins, both of whom hit better than .300 against righthanded pitchers this season.)
Don't use him: Against righties in a high-leverage situation. Righthanded hitters hit .304 and slugged .500 against Saito this season, including four home runs. No Red Sox reliever allowed more home runs to righthanded hitters.
Billy Wagner
The veteran lefty has terrible career numbers in the playoffs: In his years with the Astros and Mets combined, he has a 9.58 career ERA. It's hard to know what to make of that, though: You can't predict this season's results based on what he did in 1997, can you?
Use him: When you have some righties sandwiched in with a run of lefties. Wagner pitched effectively against lefties, of course, but he actually had just as much success against righties in his short run in Boston -- a .200 batting average against and a 3.5-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In his career, Wagner actually has held righties to a lower batting average (.186) than lefties (.200).
Don't use him: When a walk would be disastrous. Wagner has fought control issues off and on since his arrival, and no reliever on the postseason roster has a higher walk rate than Wagner's 4.6 per nine innings. Then again, the times when a walk would be disastrous are the times a strikeout would be great, and Wagner is averaging 14.5 strikeouts per nine innings since the Red Sox acquired him.
Monday, September 28, 2009
Delcarmen still stranding runners, at least
Earned run average isn't the only way to judge relief pitchers. Takashi Saito, for example, turned a one-run lead on Sunday into a one-run deficit -- and his ERA for the season actually dropped from 2.36 to 2.35.
With that in mind, here's a look at the month-by month ERA for the Red Sox bullpen so far this season:
April: 2.88
May: 3.04
June: 3.82
July: 2.99
August: 4.69
September: 5.09
But, again, ERA isn't the only way to judge relief pitchers.
Even as the Red Sox bullpen ERA has skyrocketed, its rate of stranding inherited runners actually has plummeted. To wit:
Before Aug. 1: 35 for 115 (30.4 percent)
Since Aug. 1: 16 for 71 (22.5 percent)
One reliever is almost individually responsible for that drop, too -- and it's not who you'd think. Hideki Okajima and Ramon Ramirez actually have seen their inherited-runners-scored numbers increase since Aug 1.
Not so for Manny Delcarmen.
While some relievers tend to thrive most in bases-empty situations, the much-maligned Delcarmen have thrived in the most pressure-filled situations. Check out these splits:
Bases empty: .857 OPS
Runners on base: .703 OPS
Bases loaded: .404 OPS
And even as his ERA in September has climbed all the way to 16.20 entering play Monday, he's stranding inherited runners at an incredible rate. He allowed seven of his first 18 runners to score (38.9 percent), but since Aug. 1, he's allowed just one of 15 inherited runners to score (6.7 percent).
Five times in that span, he's come into a game with either two runners on or the bases loaded -- and he's wiggled out without surrendering a run.
Most Red Sox fans start to pull their hair out when Terry Francona calls upon Delcarmen in high-pressure situations with runners on base. Francona, though, might know just what he's doing.
With that in mind, here's a look at the month-by month ERA for the Red Sox bullpen so far this season:
April: 2.88
May: 3.04
June: 3.82
July: 2.99
August: 4.69
September: 5.09
But, again, ERA isn't the only way to judge relief pitchers.
Even as the Red Sox bullpen ERA has skyrocketed, its rate of stranding inherited runners actually has plummeted. To wit:
Before Aug. 1: 35 for 115 (30.4 percent)
Since Aug. 1: 16 for 71 (22.5 percent)
One reliever is almost individually responsible for that drop, too -- and it's not who you'd think. Hideki Okajima and Ramon Ramirez actually have seen their inherited-runners-scored numbers increase since Aug 1.
Not so for Manny Delcarmen.
While some relievers tend to thrive most in bases-empty situations, the much-maligned Delcarmen have thrived in the most pressure-filled situations. Check out these splits:
Bases empty: .857 OPS
Runners on base: .703 OPS
Bases loaded: .404 OPS
And even as his ERA in September has climbed all the way to 16.20 entering play Monday, he's stranding inherited runners at an incredible rate. He allowed seven of his first 18 runners to score (38.9 percent), but since Aug. 1, he's allowed just one of 15 inherited runners to score (6.7 percent).
Five times in that span, he's come into a game with either two runners on or the bases loaded -- and he's wiggled out without surrendering a run.
Most Red Sox fans start to pull their hair out when Terry Francona calls upon Delcarmen in high-pressure situations with runners on base. Francona, though, might know just what he's doing.
Sunday, September 13, 2009
Bullpen well-rested -- but not too well-rested
Manny Delcarmen, Ramon Ramirez, Billy Wagner, Daniel Bard and Jonathan Papelbon all haven't pitched since Wednesday. They're all well-rested for the doubleheader today.
But Hideki Okajima hasn't pitched since Monday. Takashi Saito hasn't pitched since last Friday. Both could use the rest, but both still wouldn't mind staying a little bit sharp.
With an off-day, a rainout and a rain-shortened complete game all in a row, the Red Sox bullpen has found itself increasingly underworked in the last few days.
That, though, is not a bad thing.
With Clay Buchholz (3.03 ERA at Fenway Park this season) and Jon Lester (3.44 ERA in any park this season) on the mound, it might have taken some effort to shoehorn his relief pitchers into games.
"We're at the point in the year where we don't need to do that," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said. "They've got a lot of innings under their belt. We don't need to do that."
Okajima, even with his lengthy layoff, has appeared in more games (62) than anyone on the Red Sox staff. Only 11 pitchers in the American League have appeared in more. Ramirez has appeared in 60 games, tied for 16th in the American League, and closer Jonathan Papelbon has appeared in 59 games.
As a team, the Red Sox have the best bullpen ERA (3.66) in the American League -- and they've actually managed to stay well behind the pack in terms of innings pitched. Here's how it breaks down to this point in the season:
1. Baltimore, 478 2/3 IP
2. Oakland, 475 1/3
3. Cleveland, 478 2/3
4. New York, 451
5. Minnesota, 445 1/3
6. Seattle, 440 1/3
7. Toronto, 428 1/3
8. Los Angeles, 422 2/3
9. Texas, 418 2/3
t-10. Chicago, 416
t-10. Detroit, 416
12. Boston, 410 1/3
13. Kansas City, 408
14. Tampa Bay, 404
Francona has a well-rested bullpen, and he intends to keep it that way. He's not going to force-feed his relief pitchers into the game, and he's not going to pitch any of his relievers twice in the same day if he can help it.
"I wouldn't say that we'd rule it out," he said, "but I don't think that's in anybody's best interest. To sit for three days and then pitch twice in one day -- I know it appears that the guys are rested, but I don't know if pitching them like that makes sense. We try not to do that.
"Saying that, it'll probably happen. But we'll try to stay away from it."
But Hideki Okajima hasn't pitched since Monday. Takashi Saito hasn't pitched since last Friday. Both could use the rest, but both still wouldn't mind staying a little bit sharp.
With an off-day, a rainout and a rain-shortened complete game all in a row, the Red Sox bullpen has found itself increasingly underworked in the last few days.
That, though, is not a bad thing.
With Clay Buchholz (3.03 ERA at Fenway Park this season) and Jon Lester (3.44 ERA in any park this season) on the mound, it might have taken some effort to shoehorn his relief pitchers into games.
"We're at the point in the year where we don't need to do that," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said. "They've got a lot of innings under their belt. We don't need to do that."
Okajima, even with his lengthy layoff, has appeared in more games (62) than anyone on the Red Sox staff. Only 11 pitchers in the American League have appeared in more. Ramirez has appeared in 60 games, tied for 16th in the American League, and closer Jonathan Papelbon has appeared in 59 games.
As a team, the Red Sox have the best bullpen ERA (3.66) in the American League -- and they've actually managed to stay well behind the pack in terms of innings pitched. Here's how it breaks down to this point in the season:
1. Baltimore, 478 2/3 IP
2. Oakland, 475 1/3
3. Cleveland, 478 2/3
4. New York, 451
5. Minnesota, 445 1/3
6. Seattle, 440 1/3
7. Toronto, 428 1/3
8. Los Angeles, 422 2/3
9. Texas, 418 2/3
t-10. Chicago, 416
t-10. Detroit, 416
12. Boston, 410 1/3
13. Kansas City, 408
14. Tampa Bay, 404
Francona has a well-rested bullpen, and he intends to keep it that way. He's not going to force-feed his relief pitchers into the game, and he's not going to pitch any of his relievers twice in the same day if he can help it.
"I wouldn't say that we'd rule it out," he said, "but I don't think that's in anybody's best interest. To sit for three days and then pitch twice in one day -- I know it appears that the guys are rested, but I don't know if pitching them like that makes sense. We try not to do that.
"Saying that, it'll probably happen. But we'll try to stay away from it."
Sunday, August 30, 2009
Hideki Okajima's masterful control
(Sunday's Union Leader story, thanks to deadlines, was written before Okajima gave up back-to-back hits in relief of Clay Buchholz on Saturday. Bad timing. Sorry. For what it's worth, nothing was over the middle on Saturday, either.)
Hideki Okajima doesn't get his outs with his raw stuff. He gets his outs with impeccable control.
"He locates really, really well," fellow reliever Manny Delcarmen said. "You could throw 150 (miles per hour), but if it’s down the middle, it’s going to get hit -- and he doesn’t need to throw 100. He locates and keeps the hitters really, really off-balance."
Some pitchers occasionally can avoid throwing the ball down the middle. Few, though, use the edges of the plate like Okajima. Even when he's getting hit, it's not because he's missing his spots. Check out the following three charts:
1. From a game in April in which he gave up two earned runs on four hits and failed to record an out:
2. From a game in June in which he allowed one run in two innings:
3. From the extra-innings adventure in New York earlier this month in which he threw 1 1/3 hitless innings:
In those three outings, you can find a grand total of about two pitches you could classify as in the danger zone -- and nothing right down the middle of the plate.
There's a reason Okajima hasn't yet accumulated an ERA of 3.00 in a season. His stuff might be above average, but his ability to locate his pitches is sensational.
Hideki Okajima doesn't get his outs with his raw stuff. He gets his outs with impeccable control.
"He locates really, really well," fellow reliever Manny Delcarmen said. "You could throw 150 (miles per hour), but if it’s down the middle, it’s going to get hit -- and he doesn’t need to throw 100. He locates and keeps the hitters really, really off-balance."
Some pitchers occasionally can avoid throwing the ball down the middle. Few, though, use the edges of the plate like Okajima. Even when he's getting hit, it's not because he's missing his spots. Check out the following three charts:
1. From a game in April in which he gave up two earned runs on four hits and failed to record an out:
2. From a game in June in which he allowed one run in two innings:
3. From the extra-innings adventure in New York earlier this month in which he threw 1 1/3 hitless innings:
There's a reason Okajima hasn't yet accumulated an ERA of 3.00 in a season. His stuff might be above average, but his ability to locate his pitches is sensational.
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Lester's luck turns as Red Sox rally
Jon Lester now has nine no-decisions this season -- including five in his last six starts. He won't remember many of them much more fondly this season than he will the no-decision he recorded in perhaps the most entertaining Red Sox game of the season.
A short summary: Lester lost his win when a nasty curveball took a bad hop in the dirt. Hideki Okajima tried to basket-catch a pop-up and dropped it -- and he then missed a return throw from the catcher to allow the runner to move to second base. Victor Martinez drove in Nick Green in the seventh and eighth innings, a result even more unexpected given that both players spent the first six innings on the bench. Okajima pitched himself into a jam, and Manny Delcarmen pitched himself out of one.
Jason Bay, who had struck out looking twice already on offspeed pitches, hit a home run on an 0-2 offspeed pitch. Jonathan Papelbon met with the media about Billy Wagner in the afternoon and absolutely blew away the White Sox in the evening. Oh, and Jacoby Ellsbury broke the franchise record for stolen bases on the first pitch to Dustin Pedroia in the bottom of the third.
That's the short summary. Here's the long summary.
1. Ellsbury. The 25-year-old speed demon had gone four games without a left before stealing his team-record-tying 54th stolen base of the season on Friday against the Yankees. Tommy Harper was in the house on Sunday, presumably in hopes Ellsbury would break the record that night. It didn't happen.
"Maybe he was hoping I'd break it -- or not break it," Ellsbury said with a smirk. "He was here and he wished me good luck, so I appreciated that."
But Ellsbury didn't steal a record that night -- he went 0-for-5, in fact, and never even got to first base. He then doubled and tripled on Monday but went without a stolen base.
He didn't wait long on Tuesday, though. He jolted a ground-rule double into the Red Sox bullpen and took off on the first pitch Freddy Garcia threw to second baseman Dustin Pedroia. But it didn't stop there. When Pedroia went out to get a slider away and rolled it to first base, Ellsbury cruised home with the game's first run.
"When I go, there's usually a purpose behind it," he said. "I'm not just out there to steal bases. If I was out therej ust to steal bases, I know I could steal quite a few more. But I want to steal at a high success rate to help the team win. That's the most important thing."
2. Lester. The snakebit lefty now has a 2.97 ERA in his last six starts -- and one measly decision to show for it. He fought through fluky adversity in April but has seen his bad luck return in August -- twice has he struck out double-digit batters in six innings, allowing three or fewer runs in the process, and still not earn himself a win.
"It's kind of getting old sometimes," he said. "But you've got to keep plugging away and keep working. The main thing is that we won the ballgame. That's why I'll go home and sleep good tonight."
He didn't look like he was going to sleep good when he left the field in the seventh inning.
He'd gone the whole game without his best stuff, fighting at times to find pitches that would work for him. He'd hit 96 miles an hour in the eighth inning in Toronto last week but saw his velocity track downward as his pitch count climbed from 50 to 75 to 100.
"There are innings when you go out there and you feel really good," he said, "and other innings where you're just battling to find a rhythm. That's what's tough about starting pitching. Sometimes, form inning to inning, you don't know what you have, and sometimes, from game to game, you don't know what you have. You just have to make adjustments from pitch to pitch. At times I did that, and at times I didn't. ... The nice thing is that the times I didn't feel too good about my mechanics or location or what we were trying to do, I was able to minimize the damage and keep the team in the ballgame."
He got himself into a little bit of a jam in the seventh when he allowed a first-pitch single to Paul Konerko and folloewd with a four-pitch walk to Jermaine Dye. A.J. Pierzynski then bunted the runners to second and third. When Alex Rios hit a line drive to J.D. Drew in right field that failed to score Konerko, it looked as though he was about to escape unscathed -- and with the lead.
He threw three straight curveballs to Alexei Ramirez: A called strike at the knees, a nasty swinging strike at the knees and a nastier swinging strike in the dirt. But the third pitch somehow ricocheted off the left edge of the plate and over the right shoulder of catcher Jason Varitek and rolled all the way to the backstop, allowing Ramirez to reach first and Konerko to score from third.
"It hit the right part of the plate with the wrong spin and got over his head," Lester said. "Nine times out of 10, that ball stays in front of the plate and we get out of the inning."
He then caught a little too much of the plate with a sharp cut fastball -- but appeared to catch a break when Nix hit the ball straight at Mike Lowell at third base. The ball hit Lowell square in the glove -- and it bounced away for a run-scoring infield single.
"You couldn't hit 100 fungoes to Mike Lowell and have that exact same result where you hit a ball out of his gloves," Bay said.
An inning-ending strikeout had given way to a two-run rally and a 3-2 White Sox lead and had knocked Lester from the game. The lefty stalked into the dugout and down the stairs and into the clubhouse, a pat on the back from John Farrell his only solace as he stormed away from what looked to be another defeat snatched from the jaws of victory.
3. Okajima. On a day the Red Sox acquired a flame-throwing lefty in Billy Wagner, the incumbent finesse lefty demonstrated once again why he's been one of the best middle relievers in baseball over the last three seasons. He inherited Lester's jam and promptly saw the White Sox load the bases when Scott Podsednik rolled a ground ball into no-man's land between first base and the pitcher's mound.
But the 33-year-old from Japan came back with his best Wagner impression, throwing three splitfingered fastballs to Gordon Beckham before blowing an 88-mile-an-hour fastball at the eyes -- OK, easing an 88-mile-an-hour fastball at the eyes -- past him to end the inning.
4. Martinez. You'd have to guess that Terry Francona doesn't often exchange late-night text messages with his catcher. Last night, though, Francona got a message from Martinez around 1:15 a.m. that said, "Let me play."
"I finally wrote back," Francona said after the game, "and I said, 'Leave me alone. You'll come in and pinch-hit and get the game-winning hit.' He said, 'OK. Good night.'"
It didn't quite go that way. But it still was a big spot when Francona pinch-hit Martinez for Alex Gonzalez with one out in the seventh inning and the Red Sox still trailing by a 3-2 score. He sent shortstop Nick Green to run for Jason Varitek at the same time, effectively a double-switch with his shortstop and his catcher.
Martinez didn't wait long, jumping on a Matt Thornton fastball in the middle of the plate and ripping it into left field to score Green from second with the tying run. Martinez knew what to expect from Thornton, having faced him 19 times in his days with the Cleveland Indians, and he didn't expect the 6-foot-6 lefty to mess around at all.
"I just went up there and looked for his strength," Martinez said. "It's no secret. Everybody knows he's got a great fastball. I went up there to go get one and put a good swing on the ball."
Tie game.
5. Delcarmen. Carlos Quentin popped the second pitch he saw in the eighth inning over the pitcher's mound, a pop-up just high enough to make Okajima hesitate rather than calling for it himself. The result was a botched basket catch on the back of the mound to allow the runner to reach. (The play first was ruled an error but later changed to a hit.)
"It's got to be Oki's ball because of the height," Francona said. "It was like somebody punched me in the stomach -- and before I could look even look up, I felt like I got hit with the other hand."
The other hand? That came when a return throw from Martinez to Okajima missed the pitcher's outstretched glove and rolled all the way into center field, allowing Quentin to scramble to second base and threatening to turn a tie game back into a White Sox win.
Francona stuck with Okajima long enough to let him induce a pop fly to Dye and strike out Pierzynski, the last lefty in the White Sox lineup for a little while. But he then went to Delcarmen with two outs and runners on first and third and Rios striding to the plate.
Delcarmen found himself on the periphery of controversy this week after the report that both he and Jonathan Papelbon weren't overly enthusiastic about the then-rumored move for Wagner. He also hasn't exactly been the most lights-out pitcher in the Red Sox bullpen and has seen himself passed by both Daniel Bard and Ramon Ramirez in terms of the faith Francona has in him in big spots. Part of the reason is the fact that he's averaging almost a walk every other inning he pitches. When he comes into a game with runners on base, he often puts more runners on base.
True to form, he missed with back-to-back fastballs to Rios.
(Ozzie Guillen made an interesting call, by the way, in not pinch-hitting Jim Thome for Rios. Rios has hit lefties and righties equally in his career, but Thome has crushed righties to the tune of a 1.045 OPS in his career. It seemed logical that once Francona called for Delcarmen, Guillen would send up Thome. But Delcarmen has a goofy reverse split: He's a righthanded pitcher, but righties have hit .260 off him in his career while lefties have hit just .216.)
The third pitch Delcarmen threw was a 92-mile-an-hour fastball at the letters, and Rios popped it into shallow center field. Pedroia caught it for the third out.
6. Bay. Not much has been consistent about Bay's season. He began the season on a tear that turned "Sign Bay!" into a "Don't Treat On Me"-esque New England anthem, but his OPS numbers dwindled from there -- from 1.123 in April to .978 to .701 to .689 in a miserable July in which he hit just one home run.
But things have taken a turn for the better in August. He went into Tuesday's game with seven home runs for the month, and that meant he was feeling a little better in the eighth inning even though he'd already taken two called third strikes against Garcia in the early going.
"It was a constant battle," he said. "You go up there looking for a pitch you can drive, and I had some early on that I didn't swing at. It's kind of nice to do it when it matters."
It mattered in the bottom of the eighth with the game still tied at 3. David Ortiz had turned on a Thornton curveball and put a nice stroke on the ball and hit a line drive almost to the warning track in right field before Dye hauled it in. Bay then came up and took a called strike on a curveball and fouled off a slider to put himself right into the hole he didn't want to be in.
"The problem is, when I look breaking ball, half the time, that's when I swing at it when it bounces because you're looking for it and you get it," he said. "At that point, he had thrown me two (breaking balls), but it's still in the back of your mind that he throws 96 miles an hour. You're just basically looking for a strike."
Thornton hung a splitter, a terrible two-strike pitch right of the middle of the plate, and Bay crushed it into the Green Monster seats.
"It's easier said than done, just to react, but that's basically what it was," he said.
Green, Martinez and Ellsbury followed with hits to score two more runs and push the score to 6-3, a more than manageable margin for a dominant-looking Papelbon in the ninth.
Postscript: Bay's night ended with, of all things, a drug test. He took longer than usual to emerge into the locker room because, he said, "I couldn't go." Two Red Sox players were tested -- Bay and, of course, Ellsbury.
Did they find anything on the record-breaking base-stealer?
"I'll let you know," he said with a grin.
A short summary: Lester lost his win when a nasty curveball took a bad hop in the dirt. Hideki Okajima tried to basket-catch a pop-up and dropped it -- and he then missed a return throw from the catcher to allow the runner to move to second base. Victor Martinez drove in Nick Green in the seventh and eighth innings, a result even more unexpected given that both players spent the first six innings on the bench. Okajima pitched himself into a jam, and Manny Delcarmen pitched himself out of one.
Jason Bay, who had struck out looking twice already on offspeed pitches, hit a home run on an 0-2 offspeed pitch. Jonathan Papelbon met with the media about Billy Wagner in the afternoon and absolutely blew away the White Sox in the evening. Oh, and Jacoby Ellsbury broke the franchise record for stolen bases on the first pitch to Dustin Pedroia in the bottom of the third.
That's the short summary. Here's the long summary.
1. Ellsbury. The 25-year-old speed demon had gone four games without a left before stealing his team-record-tying 54th stolen base of the season on Friday against the Yankees. Tommy Harper was in the house on Sunday, presumably in hopes Ellsbury would break the record that night. It didn't happen.
"Maybe he was hoping I'd break it -- or not break it," Ellsbury said with a smirk. "He was here and he wished me good luck, so I appreciated that."
But Ellsbury didn't steal a record that night -- he went 0-for-5, in fact, and never even got to first base. He then doubled and tripled on Monday but went without a stolen base.
He didn't wait long on Tuesday, though. He jolted a ground-rule double into the Red Sox bullpen and took off on the first pitch Freddy Garcia threw to second baseman Dustin Pedroia. But it didn't stop there. When Pedroia went out to get a slider away and rolled it to first base, Ellsbury cruised home with the game's first run.
"When I go, there's usually a purpose behind it," he said. "I'm not just out there to steal bases. If I was out therej ust to steal bases, I know I could steal quite a few more. But I want to steal at a high success rate to help the team win. That's the most important thing."
2. Lester. The snakebit lefty now has a 2.97 ERA in his last six starts -- and one measly decision to show for it. He fought through fluky adversity in April but has seen his bad luck return in August -- twice has he struck out double-digit batters in six innings, allowing three or fewer runs in the process, and still not earn himself a win.
"It's kind of getting old sometimes," he said. "But you've got to keep plugging away and keep working. The main thing is that we won the ballgame. That's why I'll go home and sleep good tonight."
He didn't look like he was going to sleep good when he left the field in the seventh inning.
He'd gone the whole game without his best stuff, fighting at times to find pitches that would work for him. He'd hit 96 miles an hour in the eighth inning in Toronto last week but saw his velocity track downward as his pitch count climbed from 50 to 75 to 100.
"There are innings when you go out there and you feel really good," he said, "and other innings where you're just battling to find a rhythm. That's what's tough about starting pitching. Sometimes, form inning to inning, you don't know what you have, and sometimes, from game to game, you don't know what you have. You just have to make adjustments from pitch to pitch. At times I did that, and at times I didn't. ... The nice thing is that the times I didn't feel too good about my mechanics or location or what we were trying to do, I was able to minimize the damage and keep the team in the ballgame."
He got himself into a little bit of a jam in the seventh when he allowed a first-pitch single to Paul Konerko and folloewd with a four-pitch walk to Jermaine Dye. A.J. Pierzynski then bunted the runners to second and third. When Alex Rios hit a line drive to J.D. Drew in right field that failed to score Konerko, it looked as though he was about to escape unscathed -- and with the lead.
He threw three straight curveballs to Alexei Ramirez: A called strike at the knees, a nasty swinging strike at the knees and a nastier swinging strike in the dirt. But the third pitch somehow ricocheted off the left edge of the plate and over the right shoulder of catcher Jason Varitek and rolled all the way to the backstop, allowing Ramirez to reach first and Konerko to score from third.
"It hit the right part of the plate with the wrong spin and got over his head," Lester said. "Nine times out of 10, that ball stays in front of the plate and we get out of the inning."
He then caught a little too much of the plate with a sharp cut fastball -- but appeared to catch a break when Nix hit the ball straight at Mike Lowell at third base. The ball hit Lowell square in the glove -- and it bounced away for a run-scoring infield single.
"You couldn't hit 100 fungoes to Mike Lowell and have that exact same result where you hit a ball out of his gloves," Bay said.
An inning-ending strikeout had given way to a two-run rally and a 3-2 White Sox lead and had knocked Lester from the game. The lefty stalked into the dugout and down the stairs and into the clubhouse, a pat on the back from John Farrell his only solace as he stormed away from what looked to be another defeat snatched from the jaws of victory.
3. Okajima. On a day the Red Sox acquired a flame-throwing lefty in Billy Wagner, the incumbent finesse lefty demonstrated once again why he's been one of the best middle relievers in baseball over the last three seasons. He inherited Lester's jam and promptly saw the White Sox load the bases when Scott Podsednik rolled a ground ball into no-man's land between first base and the pitcher's mound.
But the 33-year-old from Japan came back with his best Wagner impression, throwing three splitfingered fastballs to Gordon Beckham before blowing an 88-mile-an-hour fastball at the eyes -- OK, easing an 88-mile-an-hour fastball at the eyes -- past him to end the inning.
4. Martinez. You'd have to guess that Terry Francona doesn't often exchange late-night text messages with his catcher. Last night, though, Francona got a message from Martinez around 1:15 a.m. that said, "Let me play."
"I finally wrote back," Francona said after the game, "and I said, 'Leave me alone. You'll come in and pinch-hit and get the game-winning hit.' He said, 'OK. Good night.'"
It didn't quite go that way. But it still was a big spot when Francona pinch-hit Martinez for Alex Gonzalez with one out in the seventh inning and the Red Sox still trailing by a 3-2 score. He sent shortstop Nick Green to run for Jason Varitek at the same time, effectively a double-switch with his shortstop and his catcher.
Martinez didn't wait long, jumping on a Matt Thornton fastball in the middle of the plate and ripping it into left field to score Green from second with the tying run. Martinez knew what to expect from Thornton, having faced him 19 times in his days with the Cleveland Indians, and he didn't expect the 6-foot-6 lefty to mess around at all.
"I just went up there and looked for his strength," Martinez said. "It's no secret. Everybody knows he's got a great fastball. I went up there to go get one and put a good swing on the ball."
Tie game.
5. Delcarmen. Carlos Quentin popped the second pitch he saw in the eighth inning over the pitcher's mound, a pop-up just high enough to make Okajima hesitate rather than calling for it himself. The result was a botched basket catch on the back of the mound to allow the runner to reach. (The play first was ruled an error but later changed to a hit.)
"It's got to be Oki's ball because of the height," Francona said. "It was like somebody punched me in the stomach -- and before I could look even look up, I felt like I got hit with the other hand."
The other hand? That came when a return throw from Martinez to Okajima missed the pitcher's outstretched glove and rolled all the way into center field, allowing Quentin to scramble to second base and threatening to turn a tie game back into a White Sox win.
Francona stuck with Okajima long enough to let him induce a pop fly to Dye and strike out Pierzynski, the last lefty in the White Sox lineup for a little while. But he then went to Delcarmen with two outs and runners on first and third and Rios striding to the plate.
Delcarmen found himself on the periphery of controversy this week after the report that both he and Jonathan Papelbon weren't overly enthusiastic about the then-rumored move for Wagner. He also hasn't exactly been the most lights-out pitcher in the Red Sox bullpen and has seen himself passed by both Daniel Bard and Ramon Ramirez in terms of the faith Francona has in him in big spots. Part of the reason is the fact that he's averaging almost a walk every other inning he pitches. When he comes into a game with runners on base, he often puts more runners on base.
True to form, he missed with back-to-back fastballs to Rios.
(Ozzie Guillen made an interesting call, by the way, in not pinch-hitting Jim Thome for Rios. Rios has hit lefties and righties equally in his career, but Thome has crushed righties to the tune of a 1.045 OPS in his career. It seemed logical that once Francona called for Delcarmen, Guillen would send up Thome. But Delcarmen has a goofy reverse split: He's a righthanded pitcher, but righties have hit .260 off him in his career while lefties have hit just .216.)
The third pitch Delcarmen threw was a 92-mile-an-hour fastball at the letters, and Rios popped it into shallow center field. Pedroia caught it for the third out.
6. Bay. Not much has been consistent about Bay's season. He began the season on a tear that turned "Sign Bay!" into a "Don't Treat On Me"-esque New England anthem, but his OPS numbers dwindled from there -- from 1.123 in April to .978 to .701 to .689 in a miserable July in which he hit just one home run.
But things have taken a turn for the better in August. He went into Tuesday's game with seven home runs for the month, and that meant he was feeling a little better in the eighth inning even though he'd already taken two called third strikes against Garcia in the early going.
"It was a constant battle," he said. "You go up there looking for a pitch you can drive, and I had some early on that I didn't swing at. It's kind of nice to do it when it matters."
It mattered in the bottom of the eighth with the game still tied at 3. David Ortiz had turned on a Thornton curveball and put a nice stroke on the ball and hit a line drive almost to the warning track in right field before Dye hauled it in. Bay then came up and took a called strike on a curveball and fouled off a slider to put himself right into the hole he didn't want to be in.
"The problem is, when I look breaking ball, half the time, that's when I swing at it when it bounces because you're looking for it and you get it," he said. "At that point, he had thrown me two (breaking balls), but it's still in the back of your mind that he throws 96 miles an hour. You're just basically looking for a strike."
Thornton hung a splitter, a terrible two-strike pitch right of the middle of the plate, and Bay crushed it into the Green Monster seats.
"It's easier said than done, just to react, but that's basically what it was," he said.
Green, Martinez and Ellsbury followed with hits to score two more runs and push the score to 6-3, a more than manageable margin for a dominant-looking Papelbon in the ninth.
Postscript: Bay's night ended with, of all things, a drug test. He took longer than usual to emerge into the locker room because, he said, "I couldn't go." Two Red Sox players were tested -- Bay and, of course, Ellsbury.
Did they find anything on the record-breaking base-stealer?
"I'll let you know," he said with a grin.
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Okajima "our star of the game"
There were some nitwits who wondered back in April if the Red Sox were going to have to figure out how to fix Hideki Okajima or replace him in the bullpen. Good thing Terry Francona never listens to nitwits.
Once again, the Red Sox beat the Yankees in a game that could have gone either way all the way until the end. Once again, it was the Red Sox bullpen that made the difference. On Wednesday, it was Okajima.
Ramon Ramirez allowed twice as many home runs in Wednesday's seventh inning (two) as he had all season. He then allowed a two-out single to Jorge Posada on a changeup that hung just a little too far up in the zone. With lefty slugger Hideki Matsui coming to the plate, Francona had to go get Okajima with a runner on the bases -- the type of situation in which the reliever repeatedly melted down in April and May last season.
This year, though, he's thrived with runners on base. Of the 15 runners he's inherited, just three have scored. On top of that, he's actually pitching better with runners on base (.486 opponents' OPS) than with the bases empty (.647 opponents' OPS).
Okajima didn't mess around with Matsui. He threw a curveball for a strike, two fastballs well off the plate, a splitter down for another strike, a fastball in on the hands, and then a splitter down and away that Matsui waved at and missed to retire the side.
That wasn't it for the night, though. Okajima walked Nick Swisher to lead off the eighth inning, and Melky Cabrera sacrificed pinch-runner Brett Gardner to second. The tying run was in scoring position with just one out.
Derek Jeter, a righthanded hitter, was coming to the plate. Francona, though, wasn't coming to the mound.
"Usually, Francona switches to the righty against the righthanders, but he didn't change it, so I wanted to show what I can do," Okajima said through a team translator.
Said Francona, "Oki seemed to be throwing the ball pretty well, and (Johnny) Damon's on deck. Sometimes it's not just a certain matchup. How many times have we seen Jeter fight a ball off to right field on a good pitch, and now we've got a tie game and we've burned another pitcher. I thought Oki was a good option, and he proved us right. He made some great pitches."
Okajima went right after Jeter, too -- and he buried a splitter in the dirt on a 1-2 pitch to retire the hitter who soon will be the Yankees' all-time hits leader.
Damon was next. Okajima threw the former Red Sox outfielder a 2-1 fastball on the outside corner that Damon fouled down the left-field line and into the seats. His fifth pitch was another fastball, this time well off the outside corner, and Damon swung and missed. Strike three.
"By far, no questions asked, Hideki was our star of the game," said Jonathan Papelbon, who would close it out in the ninth. "He came in and basically took over the ballgame and did what he did, and that's the big reason why we won the game. There's no doubt about it."
Once again, the Red Sox beat the Yankees in a game that could have gone either way all the way until the end. Once again, it was the Red Sox bullpen that made the difference. On Wednesday, it was Okajima.
Ramon Ramirez allowed twice as many home runs in Wednesday's seventh inning (two) as he had all season. He then allowed a two-out single to Jorge Posada on a changeup that hung just a little too far up in the zone. With lefty slugger Hideki Matsui coming to the plate, Francona had to go get Okajima with a runner on the bases -- the type of situation in which the reliever repeatedly melted down in April and May last season.
This year, though, he's thrived with runners on base. Of the 15 runners he's inherited, just three have scored. On top of that, he's actually pitching better with runners on base (.486 opponents' OPS) than with the bases empty (.647 opponents' OPS).
Okajima didn't mess around with Matsui. He threw a curveball for a strike, two fastballs well off the plate, a splitter down for another strike, a fastball in on the hands, and then a splitter down and away that Matsui waved at and missed to retire the side.
That wasn't it for the night, though. Okajima walked Nick Swisher to lead off the eighth inning, and Melky Cabrera sacrificed pinch-runner Brett Gardner to second. The tying run was in scoring position with just one out.
Derek Jeter, a righthanded hitter, was coming to the plate. Francona, though, wasn't coming to the mound.
"Usually, Francona switches to the righty against the righthanders, but he didn't change it, so I wanted to show what I can do," Okajima said through a team translator.
Said Francona, "Oki seemed to be throwing the ball pretty well, and (Johnny) Damon's on deck. Sometimes it's not just a certain matchup. How many times have we seen Jeter fight a ball off to right field on a good pitch, and now we've got a tie game and we've burned another pitcher. I thought Oki was a good option, and he proved us right. He made some great pitches."
Okajima went right after Jeter, too -- and he buried a splitter in the dirt on a 1-2 pitch to retire the hitter who soon will be the Yankees' all-time hits leader.
Damon was next. Okajima threw the former Red Sox outfielder a 2-1 fastball on the outside corner that Damon fouled down the left-field line and into the seats. His fifth pitch was another fastball, this time well off the outside corner, and Damon swung and missed. Strike three.
"By far, no questions asked, Hideki was our star of the game," said Jonathan Papelbon, who would close it out in the ninth. "He came in and basically took over the ballgame and did what he did, and that's the big reason why we won the game. There's no doubt about it."
Monday, June 8, 2009
Red Sox relievers and Yankee switch-hitters
When the Red Sox and the Yankees met the first time, we broke down in this space how Terry Francona might deploy his bullpen against the numerous switch-hitters in the lineup. Two months later, some things have changed -- and some things have stayed exactly the same.
Righty Manny Delcarmen, lefty Hideki Okajima and righty Ramon Ramirez remain Francona’s top setup options. Even better, all three have proven they can pitch against lefties and righties with impressive effectiveness. To wit:
Against lefties
Okajima (45 PA): .119/.178/.262
Ramirez (50 PA): .119/.245/.214
Delcarmen (59 PA): .200/.293/.260
Against righties
Ramirez (53 PA): .180/.226/.220
Okajima (55 PA): .239/.333/.391
Delcarmen (44 PA): .256/.341/.333
That effectiveness means that Francona doesn’t have to worry so much about traditional head-to-head matchups. Just look at the numbers: Okajima has pitched more against righties than against lefties, and Delcarmen has pitched more against lefties than against righties.
"We want to be consistent in what we do -- and maybe it doesn't look like it, but I don't think our pitchers think there's some craziness or it's chaotic," Francona said. "They've got a pretty good idea of who they're going to face, and they understand that in certain situations of the game, if the game is in the balance, we want to go to them. ...
"I know Oki gets lefties out than he gets righties, but he gets them both out. Manny Delcarmen has gotten lefthanders out. ... (Justin Masterson) is certainly a matchup guy, but other than that, we just try to get them to face the guys we think (they should face), when the timing is right, and then go to the next guy."
Here's how this all pertains to the Yankees: The ability of Okajima to pitch to righties and Ramirez to pitch to lefties means switch-hitters aren’t at as much of an advantage as they’d normally be. In fact, they might even be at a disadvantage.
"Inveterate Yankee fan" Bruce wrote to ask how Francona had gone about matching up his relievers with the switch-hitters in Joe Girardi’s lineup in the first five games between the two teams. Here’s how it broke down:
Melky Cabrera
* Ramirez: 0-for-2
* Delcarmen: 0-for-1
* Okajima: 0-for-1 with a strikeout
* Jonathan Papelbon: 1-for-1
* Takashi Saito: 1-for-1
Jorge Posada
* Ramirez: 0-for-0 with two walks
* Delcarmen: 0-for-1 with a strikeout
* Okajima: 1-for-1 with a single
* Saito: 0-for-1
Nick Swisher
* Delcarmen: 1-for-2 with a double
* Okajima: 0-for-2 with a strikeout
* Papelbon: 0-for-1 with a walk and a strikeout
* Ramirez: 0-for-1
Mark Teixeira
* Okajima: 1-for-2 with a walk
* Papelbon: 0-for-2 with a walk and two strikeouts
* Delcarmen: 0-for-1 with a strikeout
* Ramirez: 1-for-1 with a solo home run
As a group, the Yankees' switch-hitters are hitting .286 with five walks and seven strikeouts in 26 plate appearances against the Red Sox bullpen so far this season. Against Delcarmen, Okajima and Ramirez, they're hitting .266 with three walks and five strikeouts in 18 plate appearances.
What does that tell you?
Very little -- except this: There's no formula to predict how Francona will deploy his weapons. The Red Sox manager is so confident in his middle relievers right now that he'll call on any of them in pretty much any situation and against pretty much any hitter.
Righty Manny Delcarmen, lefty Hideki Okajima and righty Ramon Ramirez remain Francona’s top setup options. Even better, all three have proven they can pitch against lefties and righties with impressive effectiveness. To wit:
Against lefties
Okajima (45 PA): .119/.178/.262
Ramirez (50 PA): .119/.245/.214
Delcarmen (59 PA): .200/.293/.260
Against righties
Ramirez (53 PA): .180/.226/.220
Okajima (55 PA): .239/.333/.391
Delcarmen (44 PA): .256/.341/.333
That effectiveness means that Francona doesn’t have to worry so much about traditional head-to-head matchups. Just look at the numbers: Okajima has pitched more against righties than against lefties, and Delcarmen has pitched more against lefties than against righties.
"We want to be consistent in what we do -- and maybe it doesn't look like it, but I don't think our pitchers think there's some craziness or it's chaotic," Francona said. "They've got a pretty good idea of who they're going to face, and they understand that in certain situations of the game, if the game is in the balance, we want to go to them. ...
"I know Oki gets lefties out than he gets righties, but he gets them both out. Manny Delcarmen has gotten lefthanders out. ... (Justin Masterson) is certainly a matchup guy, but other than that, we just try to get them to face the guys we think (they should face), when the timing is right, and then go to the next guy."
Here's how this all pertains to the Yankees: The ability of Okajima to pitch to righties and Ramirez to pitch to lefties means switch-hitters aren’t at as much of an advantage as they’d normally be. In fact, they might even be at a disadvantage.
"Inveterate Yankee fan" Bruce wrote to ask how Francona had gone about matching up his relievers with the switch-hitters in Joe Girardi’s lineup in the first five games between the two teams. Here’s how it broke down:
Melky Cabrera
* Ramirez: 0-for-2
* Delcarmen: 0-for-1
* Okajima: 0-for-1 with a strikeout
* Jonathan Papelbon: 1-for-1
* Takashi Saito: 1-for-1
Jorge Posada
* Ramirez: 0-for-0 with two walks
* Delcarmen: 0-for-1 with a strikeout
* Okajima: 1-for-1 with a single
* Saito: 0-for-1
Nick Swisher
* Delcarmen: 1-for-2 with a double
* Okajima: 0-for-2 with a strikeout
* Papelbon: 0-for-1 with a walk and a strikeout
* Ramirez: 0-for-1
Mark Teixeira
* Okajima: 1-for-2 with a walk
* Papelbon: 0-for-2 with a walk and two strikeouts
* Delcarmen: 0-for-1 with a strikeout
* Ramirez: 1-for-1 with a solo home run
As a group, the Yankees' switch-hitters are hitting .286 with five walks and seven strikeouts in 26 plate appearances against the Red Sox bullpen so far this season. Against Delcarmen, Okajima and Ramirez, they're hitting .266 with three walks and five strikeouts in 18 plate appearances.
What does that tell you?
Very little -- except this: There's no formula to predict how Francona will deploy his weapons. The Red Sox manager is so confident in his middle relievers right now that he'll call on any of them in pretty much any situation and against pretty much any hitter.
Sunday, May 31, 2009
Oki doki
Remember a year ago at this time when Hideki Okajima could absolutely not be trusted with the ball unless the bases were empty? No one seems to be talking about that anymore -- and that's a good thing for the Red Sox.
"Who's comfortable pitching with men on base?" Terry Francona said during the first week of the season. "Who's better off starting a clean inning? We've been through that wit Oki for a couple of years -- what's better? .... That's important, learning guys' strengths and what they want to shy away from and what's in their best interests."
Francona still occasionally points out his preference for giving relievers a clean inning whenever possible rather than letting, say, the starting pitcher stay on the mound until he gets into a jam in the late innings. But now that we're 50 games into the season, it's interesting to see how Okajima and his buddies are performing when they do have to pitch with men on base:
Hideki Okajima
Bases empty (44 at-bats): .163 batting average
Runners on (29 at-bats): .207 batting average
Runners in scoring position (16 at-bats): .250 batting average
Inherited runners scored: 3 of 15
(A year ago at this time, Okajima had allowed 11 of 14 inherited runners to score -- and he was in the middle of a stretch that would see Francona refuse to use him with runners on base for more than a month.)
Manny Delcarmen
Bases empty (41 at-bats): .293
Runners on (42 at-bats): .190
Runners in scoring position (25 at-bats): .120
Inherited runners scored: 2 of 9
(Here's a weird stat: In Delcarmen's first 14 innings pitched this season, he walked eight but gave up no runs. In Delcarmen's last eight innings pitched, he's walked just one but given up three runs.)
Ramon Ramirez
Bases empty (44 at-bats): .136
Runners on (40 at-bats): .200
Runners in scoring position (23 at-bats): .174
Inherited runners scored: 2 of 15
(The lesson here is that pretty much no one has been able to touch Ramirez no matter what the situation.)
Takashi Saito
Bases empty (37 at-bats): .324
Runners on (34 at-bats): .206
Runners in scoring position (20 at-bats): .100
Inherited runners scored: 3 of 3
(With Javier Lopez and Hunter Jones gone, Saito has effectively become the bullpen's mop-up guy. Ten of his last 11 appearances have come when the Red Sox either led or trailed by three runs or more.)
Jonathan Papelbon
Bases empty (38 at-bats): .342
Runners on (46 at-bats): .130
Runners in scoring position (31 at-bats): .097
Inherited runners scored: 0 of 1
(You want to talk about a closer bearing down in big spots? Wow.)
"Who's comfortable pitching with men on base?" Terry Francona said during the first week of the season. "Who's better off starting a clean inning? We've been through that wit Oki for a couple of years -- what's better? .... That's important, learning guys' strengths and what they want to shy away from and what's in their best interests."
Francona still occasionally points out his preference for giving relievers a clean inning whenever possible rather than letting, say, the starting pitcher stay on the mound until he gets into a jam in the late innings. But now that we're 50 games into the season, it's interesting to see how Okajima and his buddies are performing when they do have to pitch with men on base:
Hideki Okajima
Bases empty (44 at-bats): .163 batting average
Runners on (29 at-bats): .207 batting average
Runners in scoring position (16 at-bats): .250 batting average
Inherited runners scored: 3 of 15
(A year ago at this time, Okajima had allowed 11 of 14 inherited runners to score -- and he was in the middle of a stretch that would see Francona refuse to use him with runners on base for more than a month.)
Manny Delcarmen
Bases empty (41 at-bats): .293
Runners on (42 at-bats): .190
Runners in scoring position (25 at-bats): .120
Inherited runners scored: 2 of 9
(Here's a weird stat: In Delcarmen's first 14 innings pitched this season, he walked eight but gave up no runs. In Delcarmen's last eight innings pitched, he's walked just one but given up three runs.)
Ramon Ramirez
Bases empty (44 at-bats): .136
Runners on (40 at-bats): .200
Runners in scoring position (23 at-bats): .174
Inherited runners scored: 2 of 15
(The lesson here is that pretty much no one has been able to touch Ramirez no matter what the situation.)
Takashi Saito
Bases empty (37 at-bats): .324
Runners on (34 at-bats): .206
Runners in scoring position (20 at-bats): .100
Inherited runners scored: 3 of 3
(With Javier Lopez and Hunter Jones gone, Saito has effectively become the bullpen's mop-up guy. Ten of his last 11 appearances have come when the Red Sox either led or trailed by three runs or more.)
Jonathan Papelbon
Bases empty (38 at-bats): .342
Runners on (46 at-bats): .130
Runners in scoring position (31 at-bats): .097
Inherited runners scored: 0 of 1
(You want to talk about a closer bearing down in big spots? Wow.)
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
How long until we panic about Okajima?
One-third of an inning. One walk. One hit batsman. Two earned runs. That's how Hideki Okajima opened the season.
Is it too early to panic?
It's probably too early.
Okajima, after all, didn't even allow a hit. If Justin Masterson hadn't allowed a single to Evan Longoria, we wouldn't be having this conversation. His ERA would be 0.00.
But Masterson did give up that single. Those two runs did score. Okajima's ERA is, in fact, 54.00 after Tuesday's win over the Rays on Opening Day.
And that means we have to start wondering what we didn't let ourselves wonder last season or this spring: Is Okajima the weak link in this Red Sox bullpen?
Opponents hit just .212 off Okajima last season. But the way that number broke down gives us plenty of cause for concern:
* With the bases empty: .174
* With runners on base: .269
* With runners in scoring position: .300
Here's some context in the form of Manny Delcarmen:
* With the bases empty: .200
* With runners on base: .211
* With runners in scoring position: .239
And Javier Lopez:
* With the bases empty: .236
* With runners on base: .255
* With runners in scoring position: .200
And Jonathan Papelbon:
* With the bases empty: .188
* With runners on base: .280
* With the runners in scoring position: .231
And Ramon Ramirez (with the Royals):
* With the bases empty: .224
* With runners on base: .220
* With runners in scoring position: .192
In stark contrast to the other three, Okajima's numbers were like an exponential curve. As the situation got worse, so too did his pitching. Opponents looked helpless against Okajima when there was no one on base. When there were runners on base, though, they looked pretty decent -- and when there were runners in scoring position, they looked like All-Stars.
Here's the point: All of this has to make you wonder how much confidence Terry Francona is going to be be able to have in his 33-year-old lefty. Okajima already has demonstrated he has trouble pitching in the middle of an inning with men on base -- the situation when, you know, relievers tend to be most necessary. It's not encouraging that Okajima came into Tuesday's game at the start of an inning, with no one on base, and still left with a pair of earned runs to his name.
The Red Sox bullpen is incredibly deep. Papelbon, Delcarmen, Lopez, Ramirez, Justin Masterson and Takashi Saito all look like they're going to fit perfectly into their roles in the bullpen. Saito, Delcarmen and Masterson will pitch in the seventh and the eighth innings; Lopez and Ramirez will pitch against lefties and righties, respectively, in big spots. Papelbon, of course, will close.
But the shaky outing delivered by Okajima on Tuesday give us reason to worry that there isn't a spot in which he really can be used. Can he be used to get out of a jam? Probably not. Can he be used at the start of an inning? At this point, the jury is still out.
***
On the bright side: How about Josh Beckett? How about Kevin Youkilis? How about Jason Bay? How about Dustin Pedroia? How about the fact that eight of nine hitters had at least one hit and six of nine had either a run scored or an RBI? How about the fact that the Red Sox sent James Shields back to Tampa with an 8.44 ERA?
How about: It's baseball season!
Is it too early to panic?
It's probably too early.
Okajima, after all, didn't even allow a hit. If Justin Masterson hadn't allowed a single to Evan Longoria, we wouldn't be having this conversation. His ERA would be 0.00.
But Masterson did give up that single. Those two runs did score. Okajima's ERA is, in fact, 54.00 after Tuesday's win over the Rays on Opening Day.
And that means we have to start wondering what we didn't let ourselves wonder last season or this spring: Is Okajima the weak link in this Red Sox bullpen?
Opponents hit just .212 off Okajima last season. But the way that number broke down gives us plenty of cause for concern:
* With the bases empty: .174
* With runners on base: .269
* With runners in scoring position: .300
Here's some context in the form of Manny Delcarmen:
* With the bases empty: .200
* With runners on base: .211
* With runners in scoring position: .239
And Javier Lopez:
* With the bases empty: .236
* With runners on base: .255
* With runners in scoring position: .200
And Jonathan Papelbon:
* With the bases empty: .188
* With runners on base: .280
* With the runners in scoring position: .231
And Ramon Ramirez (with the Royals):
* With the bases empty: .224
* With runners on base: .220
* With runners in scoring position: .192
In stark contrast to the other three, Okajima's numbers were like an exponential curve. As the situation got worse, so too did his pitching. Opponents looked helpless against Okajima when there was no one on base. When there were runners on base, though, they looked pretty decent -- and when there were runners in scoring position, they looked like All-Stars.
Here's the point: All of this has to make you wonder how much confidence Terry Francona is going to be be able to have in his 33-year-old lefty. Okajima already has demonstrated he has trouble pitching in the middle of an inning with men on base -- the situation when, you know, relievers tend to be most necessary. It's not encouraging that Okajima came into Tuesday's game at the start of an inning, with no one on base, and still left with a pair of earned runs to his name.
The Red Sox bullpen is incredibly deep. Papelbon, Delcarmen, Lopez, Ramirez, Justin Masterson and Takashi Saito all look like they're going to fit perfectly into their roles in the bullpen. Saito, Delcarmen and Masterson will pitch in the seventh and the eighth innings; Lopez and Ramirez will pitch against lefties and righties, respectively, in big spots. Papelbon, of course, will close.
But the shaky outing delivered by Okajima on Tuesday give us reason to worry that there isn't a spot in which he really can be used. Can he be used to get out of a jam? Probably not. Can he be used at the start of an inning? At this point, the jury is still out.
***
On the bright side: How about Josh Beckett? How about Kevin Youkilis? How about Jason Bay? How about Dustin Pedroia? How about the fact that eight of nine hitters had at least one hit and six of nine had either a run scored or an RBI? How about the fact that the Red Sox sent James Shields back to Tampa with an 8.44 ERA?
How about: It's baseball season!
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
Countdown to spring training: Relief pitching
Next on the agenda: The bullpen.
Nowhere was the bullpen more of a weapon last season than the American League East, where four teams ranked among the top 11 in the major leagues in earned-run average by its relief pitchers: Toronto (first, 2.94), Tampa Bay (fifth, 3.55), New York (3.79) and Boston (4.00).
Neither the Rays nor the Yankees have done much overhauling. The Yankees could add top prospect Andrew Brackman to the mix this season, and the Rays brought lefty specialist Brian Shouse on board, but neither will open the season with a bullpen looking much different than it did at the end of last season. The Blue Jays have taken some severe hits to their starting rotation but return B.J. Ryan and all of his sidekicks.
The Red Sox, for their part, have added under-the-radar flamethrower Ramon Ramirez and reclamation project Takashi Saito as well as spring training invitee Wes Littleton. At the same time, they've jettisoned David Aardsma (5.55 ERA last season) and Mike Timlin (5.66 ERA). And with so much uncertainty swirling around the starting rotation, that bullpen will need to pitch the way it pitched last season -- or, maybe, even better.
Locks
Jonathan Papelbon (just turned 28 years old)
2008: 2.34 ERA, 77 K, 8 BB
2007: 1.85 ERA, 84 K, 15 BB
2006: 0.92 ERA, 75 K, 13 BB
Gone are those ridiculous days when Papelbon could pitch 38 innings over the span of two and a half months and allow just a single earned run. Five times last season, in fact, Papelbon allowed two or more earned runs in one of his appearances. But he remains one of the dominant closers in baseball -- he didn't allow an earned run from the All-Star Break until Sept. 8, a span of 20 1/3 innings in 18 appearances. The Red Sox know what they'll get from Papelbon, and they're willing to pay him $6.25 million -- an 800 percent bump on his salary from last season -- for it.
Manny Delcarmen (will turn 27 in February)
2008: 3.27 ERA, 72 K, 28 BB
2007: 2.05 ERA, 41 K, 17 BB
2006: 5.06 ERA, 45 K, 17 BB
No one on the Red Sox staff made more appearances than Delcarmen made last season (73). He was murder against right-handed hitters (.218 batting average), and he was even better against lefties (.190). The only slight red flag on his numbers was the fact that his ERA went up more than a full run (2.77 to 3.82) when he was pitching on the road as opposed to at Fenway Park. But that doesn't matter much. After a rough first full season two years ago, he's found a niche as one of Terry Francona's go-to arms in the late innings.
Hideki Okajima (just turned 33)
2008: 2.61 ERA, 60 K, 23 BB
2007: 2.22 ERA, 63 K, 17 BB
Okajima had a problem with inherited runners early last season -- even while he was putting together a 0.72 ERA through May, he was allowing inherited runners to score at an alarming rate. Eleven of the first 14 runners he inherited out of the bullpen, in fact, came around to score. In one disastrous example, he entered the game with the bases loaded on April 24 against the Angels and allowed all three of those runners to score in a game the Red Sox eventually lost.
By the end of May, the Red Sox stopped giving him the ball in situations in which he inherited runners. He entered the game with the bases empty in 15 straight appearances starting May 20, and he came on with a runner in scoring position just four times the rest of the season. His numbers improved -- just two of his final 11 inherited runners scored, and he even wiggled out of a bases-loaded jam against Cleveland in late September, inducing a pop fly from Victor Martinez with two outs to end the threat.
For the season, opponents hit .174 off Okajima when the bases were empty and .269 when there were men on base -- a number that jumped to .300 when there were runners in scoring position.
With the numbers he's put up, Okajima really ought to be one of Terry Francona's go-to guys when a starting pitcher (or a fellow reliever) runs into trouble. But the way Francona used him last season shows he's not necessarily that guy.
Ramon Ramirez (will turn 28 in August)
2008 (with Kansas City): 2.64 ERA, 61 K, 27 BB
2007 (with Colorado): 8.31 ERA, 15 K, 6 BB (in 22 appearances)
2006 (with Colorado): 3.46 ERA, 70 K, 31 BB
Red Sox fans don't know much at all about Ramirez, acquired from the Royals this winter for outfielder Coco Crisp. But here's one stat that'll make fans happy: Ramirez held opposing hitters to a .220 batting average with runners on base last season and a .192 batting average with runners in scoring position -- including .143 with two outs and runners in scoring position.
He pitched mostly in the eighth inning for the Royals, and while Delcarmen appears to have first crack at that role for the Red Sox, the audition of Ramirez this spring is going to be interesting to watch.
In the mix
Wes Littleton (will turn 27 in September)
2008: 6.00 ERA, 14 K, 8 BB
2007: 4.31 ERA, 24 K, 16 BB
2006: 1.73 ERA, 17 K, 13 BB
Littleton, should he make the Red Sox roster as the team's 12th pitcher, is likely to be the guy who sees the garbage-time innings. Good thing. Littleton is an expert on garbage-time innings. It was Littleton, after all, who pitched the final three innings in the Rangers' 30-3 win over the Orioles two years ago -- an outing for which he earned the cheapest save in the history of the game.
Littleton had a great 2006 season (his ERA was 1.23 in 30 minor league appearances) before taking a step back in 2007. He had a 4.01 ERA with six saves in 44 appearances for Triple-A Oklahoma City a year ago, and he was traded to the Red Sox mostly because he's out of options. He's expected to head north with the Red Sox barring a disastrous spring training -- if he doesn't show his new team anything, though, he'll be back on the waiver wire.
Javier Lopez (will turn 32 in July)
2008: 2.43 ERA, 38 K, 27 BB
2007: 3.10 ERA, 26 K, 18 BB
2006: 2.70 ERA, 11 K, 10 BB (in 27 big-league appearances)
Red Sox fans love to hate Lopez -- every fan base needs a bullpen target for its wrath, and Lopez appears to be that target. But the fact remains that if your worst relief pitcher is a lefty specialist who saw lefties hit .182 against him last season, you're in pretty good shape. Sure, right-handed hitters hit .311 (33 hits in 106 at-bats) against Lopez last season -- but that's not his job. It would be nice if his home-road splits weren't so dramatic -- 1.23 ERA at Fenway Park versus 4.37 ERA elsewhere -- but he'll certainly pitch useful innings as the fifth or sixth arm in the bullpen.
Justin Masterson (will turn 24 in March)
2008 (as a starter): 4-3, 3.67 ERA, 39 K, 28 BB (.206 batting average against)
2008 (as a reliever): 2-2, 2.36 ERA, 29 K, 12 BB (.231 batting average against)
The acquisitions of Brad Penny and John Smoltz appear to have shelved the Masterson-as-starter experiment. Masterson's performance in last year's postseason -- he had a 1.86 ERA in 9 2/3 innings, including a win in the dramatic Game 5 -- makes that look like a good decision. Masterson held right-handed hitters to a .196 average last season (though lefties didn't fare much better at .238). He looks like he has a chance to develop into a seventh-inning weapon, particularly against righty-heavy lineups.
Takashi Saito (will turn 39 in February)
2008: 2.49 ERA, 60 K, 16 BB
2007: 1.40 ERA, 78 K, 13 BB
2006: 2.07 ERA, 107 K, 23 BB
Those numbers look great, don't they? They'd look even better, of course, if Saito wasn't coming off an elbow sprain that cost him most of last season. And after he returned in mid-September, he allowed an earned run in three of his six appearances, compiling a 4.76 ERA in the process. In his one appearance in the National League Division Series against the Cubs, he allowed a double, a single and a double before Joe Torre had to yank him.
That certainly doesn't look good. But be careful putting too much stock in any three-week stretch. For one thing, Saito now has had an entire winter to rehabilitate his elbow and get back into the rhythm of pitching. (He said he was pitching at his old velocity in September but that his control still was shaky.) For another thing, check out his top comparables on baseball-reference.com: Jonathan Papelbon, Joakim Soria, Joba Chamberlain and Huston Street.
Nowhere was the bullpen more of a weapon last season than the American League East, where four teams ranked among the top 11 in the major leagues in earned-run average by its relief pitchers: Toronto (first, 2.94), Tampa Bay (fifth, 3.55), New York (3.79) and Boston (4.00).
Neither the Rays nor the Yankees have done much overhauling. The Yankees could add top prospect Andrew Brackman to the mix this season, and the Rays brought lefty specialist Brian Shouse on board, but neither will open the season with a bullpen looking much different than it did at the end of last season. The Blue Jays have taken some severe hits to their starting rotation but return B.J. Ryan and all of his sidekicks.
The Red Sox, for their part, have added under-the-radar flamethrower Ramon Ramirez and reclamation project Takashi Saito as well as spring training invitee Wes Littleton. At the same time, they've jettisoned David Aardsma (5.55 ERA last season) and Mike Timlin (5.66 ERA). And with so much uncertainty swirling around the starting rotation, that bullpen will need to pitch the way it pitched last season -- or, maybe, even better.
Locks
Jonathan Papelbon (just turned 28 years old)
2008: 2.34 ERA, 77 K, 8 BB
2007: 1.85 ERA, 84 K, 15 BB
2006: 0.92 ERA, 75 K, 13 BB
Gone are those ridiculous days when Papelbon could pitch 38 innings over the span of two and a half months and allow just a single earned run. Five times last season, in fact, Papelbon allowed two or more earned runs in one of his appearances. But he remains one of the dominant closers in baseball -- he didn't allow an earned run from the All-Star Break until Sept. 8, a span of 20 1/3 innings in 18 appearances. The Red Sox know what they'll get from Papelbon, and they're willing to pay him $6.25 million -- an 800 percent bump on his salary from last season -- for it.
Manny Delcarmen (will turn 27 in February)
2008: 3.27 ERA, 72 K, 28 BB
2007: 2.05 ERA, 41 K, 17 BB
2006: 5.06 ERA, 45 K, 17 BB
No one on the Red Sox staff made more appearances than Delcarmen made last season (73). He was murder against right-handed hitters (.218 batting average), and he was even better against lefties (.190). The only slight red flag on his numbers was the fact that his ERA went up more than a full run (2.77 to 3.82) when he was pitching on the road as opposed to at Fenway Park. But that doesn't matter much. After a rough first full season two years ago, he's found a niche as one of Terry Francona's go-to arms in the late innings.
Hideki Okajima (just turned 33)
2008: 2.61 ERA, 60 K, 23 BB
2007: 2.22 ERA, 63 K, 17 BB
Okajima had a problem with inherited runners early last season -- even while he was putting together a 0.72 ERA through May, he was allowing inherited runners to score at an alarming rate. Eleven of the first 14 runners he inherited out of the bullpen, in fact, came around to score. In one disastrous example, he entered the game with the bases loaded on April 24 against the Angels and allowed all three of those runners to score in a game the Red Sox eventually lost.
By the end of May, the Red Sox stopped giving him the ball in situations in which he inherited runners. He entered the game with the bases empty in 15 straight appearances starting May 20, and he came on with a runner in scoring position just four times the rest of the season. His numbers improved -- just two of his final 11 inherited runners scored, and he even wiggled out of a bases-loaded jam against Cleveland in late September, inducing a pop fly from Victor Martinez with two outs to end the threat.
For the season, opponents hit .174 off Okajima when the bases were empty and .269 when there were men on base -- a number that jumped to .300 when there were runners in scoring position.
With the numbers he's put up, Okajima really ought to be one of Terry Francona's go-to guys when a starting pitcher (or a fellow reliever) runs into trouble. But the way Francona used him last season shows he's not necessarily that guy.
Ramon Ramirez (will turn 28 in August)
2008 (with Kansas City): 2.64 ERA, 61 K, 27 BB
2007 (with Colorado): 8.31 ERA, 15 K, 6 BB (in 22 appearances)
2006 (with Colorado): 3.46 ERA, 70 K, 31 BB
Red Sox fans don't know much at all about Ramirez, acquired from the Royals this winter for outfielder Coco Crisp. But here's one stat that'll make fans happy: Ramirez held opposing hitters to a .220 batting average with runners on base last season and a .192 batting average with runners in scoring position -- including .143 with two outs and runners in scoring position.
He pitched mostly in the eighth inning for the Royals, and while Delcarmen appears to have first crack at that role for the Red Sox, the audition of Ramirez this spring is going to be interesting to watch.
In the mix
Wes Littleton (will turn 27 in September)
2008: 6.00 ERA, 14 K, 8 BB
2007: 4.31 ERA, 24 K, 16 BB
2006: 1.73 ERA, 17 K, 13 BB
Littleton, should he make the Red Sox roster as the team's 12th pitcher, is likely to be the guy who sees the garbage-time innings. Good thing. Littleton is an expert on garbage-time innings. It was Littleton, after all, who pitched the final three innings in the Rangers' 30-3 win over the Orioles two years ago -- an outing for which he earned the cheapest save in the history of the game.
Littleton had a great 2006 season (his ERA was 1.23 in 30 minor league appearances) before taking a step back in 2007. He had a 4.01 ERA with six saves in 44 appearances for Triple-A Oklahoma City a year ago, and he was traded to the Red Sox mostly because he's out of options. He's expected to head north with the Red Sox barring a disastrous spring training -- if he doesn't show his new team anything, though, he'll be back on the waiver wire.
Javier Lopez (will turn 32 in July)
2008: 2.43 ERA, 38 K, 27 BB
2007: 3.10 ERA, 26 K, 18 BB
2006: 2.70 ERA, 11 K, 10 BB (in 27 big-league appearances)
Red Sox fans love to hate Lopez -- every fan base needs a bullpen target for its wrath, and Lopez appears to be that target. But the fact remains that if your worst relief pitcher is a lefty specialist who saw lefties hit .182 against him last season, you're in pretty good shape. Sure, right-handed hitters hit .311 (33 hits in 106 at-bats) against Lopez last season -- but that's not his job. It would be nice if his home-road splits weren't so dramatic -- 1.23 ERA at Fenway Park versus 4.37 ERA elsewhere -- but he'll certainly pitch useful innings as the fifth or sixth arm in the bullpen.
Justin Masterson (will turn 24 in March)
2008 (as a starter): 4-3, 3.67 ERA, 39 K, 28 BB (.206 batting average against)
2008 (as a reliever): 2-2, 2.36 ERA, 29 K, 12 BB (.231 batting average against)
The acquisitions of Brad Penny and John Smoltz appear to have shelved the Masterson-as-starter experiment. Masterson's performance in last year's postseason -- he had a 1.86 ERA in 9 2/3 innings, including a win in the dramatic Game 5 -- makes that look like a good decision. Masterson held right-handed hitters to a .196 average last season (though lefties didn't fare much better at .238). He looks like he has a chance to develop into a seventh-inning weapon, particularly against righty-heavy lineups.
Takashi Saito (will turn 39 in February)
2008: 2.49 ERA, 60 K, 16 BB
2007: 1.40 ERA, 78 K, 13 BB
2006: 2.07 ERA, 107 K, 23 BB
Those numbers look great, don't they? They'd look even better, of course, if Saito wasn't coming off an elbow sprain that cost him most of last season. And after he returned in mid-September, he allowed an earned run in three of his six appearances, compiling a 4.76 ERA in the process. In his one appearance in the National League Division Series against the Cubs, he allowed a double, a single and a double before Joe Torre had to yank him.
That certainly doesn't look good. But be careful putting too much stock in any three-week stretch. For one thing, Saito now has had an entire winter to rehabilitate his elbow and get back into the rhythm of pitching. (He said he was pitching at his old velocity in September but that his control still was shaky.) For another thing, check out his top comparables on baseball-reference.com: Jonathan Papelbon, Joakim Soria, Joba Chamberlain and Huston Street.
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