Subtitle: A voyage through FanGraphs' Pitch Value statistics.
Every hitter has his pitches he loves. Every hitter has his pitches he loves a little less. Thanks to FanGraphs' Pitch Value numbers, we can find out a little bit about what pitches each Red Sox hitter loves or loves less.
The measure here is "Runs created per 100 pitches seen." The calculations are complicated but the idea is relatively simple: A single contributes a certain fraction of a run. A double contributes a certain fraction of a run. A strikeout costs a certain fraction of a run.
Against the fastball
1. Kevin Youkilis, 2.56 runs
2. Victor Martinez, 2.42
3. Jason Bay, 1.8
4. J.D. Drew, 1.73
5. Julio Lugo, 1.03
Against the changeup
1. David Ortiz, 1.92 runs
2. Julio Lugo, 1.39
3. Jason Bay, 1.13
4. Kevin Youkilis, 1.94
5. Jason Varitek, 0.29
(You're probably wondering why Julio Lugo looked so bad if he was so good against fastballs and changeups -- or maybe you've already guessed that he was a minus-2.56 against curveballs.)
Against the curveball
1. Dustin Pedroia, 2.56 runs
2. Alex Gonzalez, 2.44
3. Kevin Youkilis, 1.94
4. David Ortiz, 1.35
5. Jason Bay, 0.76
Against the slider
1. Jason Varitek, 2.67 runs
2. Jacoby Ellsbury, 1.56
3. Jason Bay, 1.14
4. Dustin Pedroia, 0.92
5. J.D. Drew, minus-0.03
Pedroia actually ranked ninth in the major leagues last season against breaking balls, compiling a combined 3.48 runs against curveballs and sliders. He might claim he loves the high, inside fastball, but he was most productive last season against breaking balls.
Two seasons ago, Pedroia ranked 11th against breaking balls, compiling 3.67 runs against curveballs and sliders.
According to the new Red Sox Annual, Pedroia swung and missed at just six percent of curves and sliders against righthanded pitchers -- best in the major leagues. He hit .350 against curveballs last season, including .375 against curveballs from righties.
Kevin Youkilis, on the other hand, loves pitches that come in straight and don't break. He ranked 16th in the major leagues last season with a combined 3.5 runs created against fastballs and changeups. Two seasons ago, Youkilis ranked eighth in the major leagues with a combined 4.48 against fastballs and changeups, nestled right between Albert Pujols and Chipper Jones.
His Achilles' heel over the last two seasons has been the slider. He compiled minus-1.42 runs against the slider last season.
All of this is subject to context: Bay is, by reputation, a fastball hitter who has little success against good breaking pitches. Bad breaking pitches still count on the scale -- and Bay pounds bad breaking pitches.
(Want more context? The best fastball among Red Sox pitchers last season, per 100 pitches, belonged to Tim Wakefield. It only was so effective, though, because he threw it as a complement to his mystifying knuckleball.)
Weaknesses still are weaknesses, and strengths still are strengths. If a pitcher is going to try to get Pedroia out with a breaking ball in a big spot next season, it had better be an awfully good one.
Showing posts with label bay. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bay. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Bay signing closes book on Red Sox draft picks
Given their preference, the Red Sox wouldn't have had Jason Bay sign with the Mets. Bay, had he signed with a team in the bottom half of next June's draft order, would have netted the Red Sox a first-round draft pick. Instead, since the Mets are scheduled to draft seventh in the first round, their pick is protected -- and thus the Red Sox receive a second-round pick and a supplemental pick in exchange for Bay.
Unless the Red Sox sign outfielder Matt Holliday (a long shot) or relief Jose Valverde (an even longer shot), the Bay signing closes the book on the adjustments to the Red Sox draft next June. Here's a quick look:
First round: No. 20 overall
* The Red Sox receive the Braves' pick for Billy Wagner;
* The Angels receive pick No. 29 from the Red Sox for John Lackey.
Supplemental first round: Two picks between No. 33-40
* The Red Sox receive a to-be-determined pick for Bay;
* The Red Sox receive a to-be-determined pick for Wagner.
(Baseball America a week ago assigned the Red Sox pick No. 35 for Wagner, but that's pre-Bay and pre-Holliday, so the supplemental picks still might move around a little bit.)
Second round: No. 7 in the round (around No. 50 overall)
* The Red Sox receive the Mets' pick for Bay. With the Type A free agents (Holliday, Valverde) and Type B free agents (among them Adrian Beltre, Fernando Rodney and Marlon Byrd) still out there, it's impossible to know exactly where that pick will land.
* The Blue Jays receive pick No. 70 -- or thereabouts, depending on how the supplemental round shakes out -- from the Red Sox for Marco Scutaro.
After all the wheeling and dealing, the Red Sox will have four picks in the top 50, including No. 20 overall. For the sake of comparison, a year ago, the Red Sox drafted Reymond Fuentes at No. 28 in the first round and did not select again until their scheduled pick -- No. 77 overall -- in the second round.
The last time the Red Sox had four picks in the top 50 was 2006, and they emerged with Jason Place, Daniel Bard, Kris Johnson and Caleb Clay. Only Bard to this point has panned out, but there's still time for Clay and Place.
The year before that, the Red Sox had five picks in the top 50 and came out of it with Jacoby Ellsbury, Craig Hansen, Clay Buchholz, Jed Lowrie and Michael Bowden. Not bad.
Unless the Red Sox sign outfielder Matt Holliday (a long shot) or relief Jose Valverde (an even longer shot), the Bay signing closes the book on the adjustments to the Red Sox draft next June. Here's a quick look:
First round: No. 20 overall
* The Red Sox receive the Braves' pick for Billy Wagner;
* The Angels receive pick No. 29 from the Red Sox for John Lackey.
Supplemental first round: Two picks between No. 33-40
* The Red Sox receive a to-be-determined pick for Bay;
* The Red Sox receive a to-be-determined pick for Wagner.
(Baseball America a week ago assigned the Red Sox pick No. 35 for Wagner, but that's pre-Bay and pre-Holliday, so the supplemental picks still might move around a little bit.)
Second round: No. 7 in the round (around No. 50 overall)
* The Red Sox receive the Mets' pick for Bay. With the Type A free agents (Holliday, Valverde) and Type B free agents (among them Adrian Beltre, Fernando Rodney and Marlon Byrd) still out there, it's impossible to know exactly where that pick will land.
* The Blue Jays receive pick No. 70 -- or thereabouts, depending on how the supplemental round shakes out -- from the Red Sox for Marco Scutaro.
After all the wheeling and dealing, the Red Sox will have four picks in the top 50, including No. 20 overall. For the sake of comparison, a year ago, the Red Sox drafted Reymond Fuentes at No. 28 in the first round and did not select again until their scheduled pick -- No. 77 overall -- in the second round.
The last time the Red Sox had four picks in the top 50 was 2006, and they emerged with Jason Place, Daniel Bard, Kris Johnson and Caleb Clay. Only Bard to this point has panned out, but there's still time for Clay and Place.
The year before that, the Red Sox had five picks in the top 50 and came out of it with Jacoby Ellsbury, Craig Hansen, Clay Buchholz, Jed Lowrie and Michael Bowden. Not bad.
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Bay doesn't fit under luxury tax threshold
Reports from WEEI.com and the Globe have the Red Sox considering once again offering a contract to Jason Bay. The left fielder has had a four-year offer in hand from the New York Mets for the better part of the month but still hasn't accepted it, and the Mets are starting to wonder -- where would they get this idea? -- that Bay doesn't really want to play for them.
If Bay is willing to sign a four-year deal at a reasonable rate -- even at $15 million a year, really -- there's no reason the Red Sox couldn't fit him into their lineup. Mike Cameron might not like it much, but the 37-year-old has $15 million reasons not to mind being a fourth outfielder for the next two seasons.
On top of that, the return of Bay would free up the Red Sox to trade Jacoby Ellsbury in the right deal -- especially since Ryan Kalish and Josh Reddick figure to be knocking on the door of the major leagues by July.
The Red Sox certainly can fit Bay on their roster. They can't, though, fit him into their budget if they want to stay under the luxury-tax threshold next season.
From the Globe:
Could Bay return to the Red Sox? It’s not inconceivable, according to a major league source, who said it would take two things to happen. 1. Bay would likely have to accept a backloaded contract, which would help the Sox remain under the $170 million payroll threshold for avoiding the luxury tax; and 2. the Sox would have to extend their budget, after they gave a two-year, $15.5 million deal to Mike Cameron.
Here's the issue: A backloaded contract wouldn't help matters. Most estimates have the Red Sox having spent about $165 million on next season's payroll when you factor in both player benefits and the yet-to-bet determined arbitration awards to Jonthan Papelbon, Hideki Okajima, Casey Kotchman and Jeremy Hermida -- not to mention the team-determined salaries, around $500,000 apiece, to players like Daniel Bard, Clay Buchholz, Manny Delcarmen, Jacoby Ellsbury and Ramon Ramirez.
Let's say, just for the sake of argument, that Bay were to sign an obscenely backloaded contract. Let's break it down this way:
2010: $3 million
2011: $7 million
2012: $20 million
2013: $30 million
Total: Four years, $60 million
According to the collective bargaining agreement (skip ahead to page 103), a team's payroll for luxury-tax purposes is determined by average annual value. Even if Bay only were paid $3 million next season as part of the above ridiculously backloaded contract, he still would count $15 million against the luxury tax and thus would cost the Red Sox an extra 22.5 percent on top of what they were paying him.
If Bay is willing to sign a four-year deal at a reasonable rate -- even at $15 million a year, really -- there's no reason the Red Sox couldn't fit him into their lineup. Mike Cameron might not like it much, but the 37-year-old has $15 million reasons not to mind being a fourth outfielder for the next two seasons.
On top of that, the return of Bay would free up the Red Sox to trade Jacoby Ellsbury in the right deal -- especially since Ryan Kalish and Josh Reddick figure to be knocking on the door of the major leagues by July.
The Red Sox certainly can fit Bay on their roster. They can't, though, fit him into their budget if they want to stay under the luxury-tax threshold next season.
From the Globe:
Could Bay return to the Red Sox? It’s not inconceivable, according to a major league source, who said it would take two things to happen. 1. Bay would likely have to accept a backloaded contract, which would help the Sox remain under the $170 million payroll threshold for avoiding the luxury tax; and 2. the Sox would have to extend their budget, after they gave a two-year, $15.5 million deal to Mike Cameron.
Here's the issue: A backloaded contract wouldn't help matters. Most estimates have the Red Sox having spent about $165 million on next season's payroll when you factor in both player benefits and the yet-to-bet determined arbitration awards to Jonthan Papelbon, Hideki Okajima, Casey Kotchman and Jeremy Hermida -- not to mention the team-determined salaries, around $500,000 apiece, to players like Daniel Bard, Clay Buchholz, Manny Delcarmen, Jacoby Ellsbury and Ramon Ramirez.
Let's say, just for the sake of argument, that Bay were to sign an obscenely backloaded contract. Let's break it down this way:
2010: $3 million
2011: $7 million
2012: $20 million
2013: $30 million
Total: Four years, $60 million
According to the collective bargaining agreement (skip ahead to page 103), a team's payroll for luxury-tax purposes is determined by average annual value. Even if Bay only were paid $3 million next season as part of the above ridiculously backloaded contract, he still would count $15 million against the luxury tax and thus would cost the Red Sox an extra 22.5 percent on top of what they were paying him.
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Watch out for Yankees on Bay and Holliday
Well, there it is.
In acquiring bat-missing specialist Javier Vazquez from the Atlanta Braves, the Yankees parted with young outfielder Melky Cabrera. In doing so, they cleared room on the roster -- if not necessarily on the payroll -- for either Jason Bay or Matt Holliday, the two marquee bats on the market this winter. Both Bay and Holliday have been reluctant to accept the standing offers from the Mets and Cardinals, respectively, and it doesn't take much of an imagination to speculate that they've both been waiting for the Yankees to get into the fray.
The Yankees are in the fray. The Yankees officially have need for a left fielder.
Now, Brian Cashman's team has made clear all offseason that it's not interested either in Bay or Holliday. Both Joel Sherman of the Post and Buster Olney of ESPN.com have portrayed the Yankees as have no interest in either Bay or Holliday, let alone free agent Johnny Damon. Sherman wrote today that the Yankees are looking for a "bargain bin" left fielder. Olney had previously reported that the Yankees were planning to cut payroll this offseason.
Right. OK.
The Yankees' modus operandi always has been to lay low and wait until everyone else has finished shopping. They waited on Mark Teixeira and pounced at the last minute. They came out of nowhere to trade for Alex Rodriguez before the 2004 season, just two weeks after the Rangers had called off trade talks with the Red Sox and named Rodriguez their team captain.
Neither the Cardinals nor the Mets have been all that motivated to improve the offers they have on the table for Holliday and Bay, respectively. Neither player has seemed all that motivated to accept.
The Yankees won't be in on either Bay or Holliday if they're still trying to cut payroll.
But if you believe they're going to choose to cut payroll with the chance to add a middle-of-the-lineup bat still out there -- and keep in mind the Yankees have no clear No. 5 hitter at this point -- you're kidding yourself.
(The argument out there is that the Yankees are waiting on next season's free-agent class. Carl Crawford, though, is the only elite outfielder in that group -- and it's not like the Yankees to put all their eggs in one basket.)
This is the way the Yankees operate. A World Series title last season isn't going to change that. It would be a stunning departure from the Yankees' traditional policy if they let Holliday go back to St. Louis without at least matching the offer the Cardinals have on the table.
***
For those who haven't paid much attention to Javier Vazquez since his relief appearance against the Red Sox in Game 7 of the ALCS in 2004: The Yankees just acquired themselves as good of a strikeout pitcher as there was in the major leagues last season. Only four ptichers averaged more strikeouts per nine innings than Vazquez last season -- Tim Lincecum, Justin Verlander, Jon Lester and Yovani Gallardo -- and only Roy Halladay and Dan Haren had a better strikeout-to-walk ratio than Vazquez.
Vazquez, in fact, became the first pitcher since Johan Santana in 2006 to strike out more than a hitter an inning while still posting a strikeout-to-walk ratio of better than 5.0. Only Vazquez, Santana, Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez and Ben Sheets have accomplished the feat this decade.
It's no lock Vazquez will duplicate those numbers next season. But if your knee-jerk reaction is to dismiss the move as one in which the Yankees added a back-of-the-rotation starter, you'd be well advised to consider that the numbers Vazquez posted for the Braves last season probably would have earned him a Game 2 start in the playoffs for the Yankees.
It's not as if his career numbers are dramatically inflated by his years in the National League, either. His ERA is only a half-run better -- 4.52 in the NL to 4.02 in the AL -- and his career strikeout rates (8.1/8.1) and walk rates (2.3/2.5) are virtually identical.
Oh, and in his one start against the Red Sox last season, Vazquez allowed one earned run in 7 2/3 innings, striking out eight in the process.
In acquiring bat-missing specialist Javier Vazquez from the Atlanta Braves, the Yankees parted with young outfielder Melky Cabrera. In doing so, they cleared room on the roster -- if not necessarily on the payroll -- for either Jason Bay or Matt Holliday, the two marquee bats on the market this winter. Both Bay and Holliday have been reluctant to accept the standing offers from the Mets and Cardinals, respectively, and it doesn't take much of an imagination to speculate that they've both been waiting for the Yankees to get into the fray.
The Yankees are in the fray. The Yankees officially have need for a left fielder.
Now, Brian Cashman's team has made clear all offseason that it's not interested either in Bay or Holliday. Both Joel Sherman of the Post and Buster Olney of ESPN.com have portrayed the Yankees as have no interest in either Bay or Holliday, let alone free agent Johnny Damon. Sherman wrote today that the Yankees are looking for a "bargain bin" left fielder. Olney had previously reported that the Yankees were planning to cut payroll this offseason.
Right. OK.
The Yankees' modus operandi always has been to lay low and wait until everyone else has finished shopping. They waited on Mark Teixeira and pounced at the last minute. They came out of nowhere to trade for Alex Rodriguez before the 2004 season, just two weeks after the Rangers had called off trade talks with the Red Sox and named Rodriguez their team captain.
Neither the Cardinals nor the Mets have been all that motivated to improve the offers they have on the table for Holliday and Bay, respectively. Neither player has seemed all that motivated to accept.
The Yankees won't be in on either Bay or Holliday if they're still trying to cut payroll.
But if you believe they're going to choose to cut payroll with the chance to add a middle-of-the-lineup bat still out there -- and keep in mind the Yankees have no clear No. 5 hitter at this point -- you're kidding yourself.
(The argument out there is that the Yankees are waiting on next season's free-agent class. Carl Crawford, though, is the only elite outfielder in that group -- and it's not like the Yankees to put all their eggs in one basket.)
This is the way the Yankees operate. A World Series title last season isn't going to change that. It would be a stunning departure from the Yankees' traditional policy if they let Holliday go back to St. Louis without at least matching the offer the Cardinals have on the table.
***
For those who haven't paid much attention to Javier Vazquez since his relief appearance against the Red Sox in Game 7 of the ALCS in 2004: The Yankees just acquired themselves as good of a strikeout pitcher as there was in the major leagues last season. Only four ptichers averaged more strikeouts per nine innings than Vazquez last season -- Tim Lincecum, Justin Verlander, Jon Lester and Yovani Gallardo -- and only Roy Halladay and Dan Haren had a better strikeout-to-walk ratio than Vazquez.
Vazquez, in fact, became the first pitcher since Johan Santana in 2006 to strike out more than a hitter an inning while still posting a strikeout-to-walk ratio of better than 5.0. Only Vazquez, Santana, Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez and Ben Sheets have accomplished the feat this decade.
It's no lock Vazquez will duplicate those numbers next season. But if your knee-jerk reaction is to dismiss the move as one in which the Yankees added a back-of-the-rotation starter, you'd be well advised to consider that the numbers Vazquez posted for the Braves last season probably would have earned him a Game 2 start in the playoffs for the Yankees.
It's not as if his career numbers are dramatically inflated by his years in the National League, either. His ERA is only a half-run better -- 4.52 in the NL to 4.02 in the AL -- and his career strikeout rates (8.1/8.1) and walk rates (2.3/2.5) are virtually identical.
Oh, and in his one start against the Red Sox last season, Vazquez allowed one earned run in 7 2/3 innings, striking out eight in the process.
Monday, December 14, 2009
Mike Cameron as a defensive upgrade
It appears the Red Sox have wasted no time in taking Joe Urbon at his word, spending Jason Bay's money on Angels ace John Lackey and engaging in serious talks with outfielder extraordinaire Mike Cameron, a natural fit for their pitching-and-defense approach to the offseason.
(Click here for a look at how Cameron might fit what the Red Sox want at the plate.)
Cameron has made a career out of being a defensive whiz in center field. The Red Sox, unless they have less faith in Jacoby Ellsbury's development than we've been led to believe, only need Cameron to play left field -- and to play it better than Bay did.
That shouldn't be an issue. Check out the defensive metrics -- and keep in mind, too, that Cameron was playing in center while Bay was playing in left:
2009
Bay: minus-11.2 UZR/minus-4 Fielding Bible
Cameron: plus-10.3 UZR/plus-3 Fielding Bible
2008
Bay: minus-18.2 UZR/minus-7 Fielding Bible
Cameron: plus-15.6 UZR/plus-7 Fielding Bible
2007
Bay: minus-11.4 UZR/minus-11 Fielding Bible
Cameron: minus-10.4 UZR/plus-1 Fielding Bible
2006
Bay: plus-3.0 UZR/plus-7 Fielding Bible
Cameron: minus-0.6 UZR/plus-5 Fielding Bible
One red flag pops up when looking at those numbers: Ultimate Zone Rating doesn't like the way Cameron played center field in 2006 and 2007.
Some context: Cameron played 2006 and 2007 in San Diego. He played 2008 and 2009 in Milwaukee. San Diego's Petco Park, as Red Sox fans lusting after Adrian Gonzalez know well, has a cavernous outfield -- it's 367 feet to left-center, 396 feet to center field and 411 to the deepest part of the park in right-center. Miller Park, on the other hand, features a center-field wall that goes back 400 feet but doesn't have a power alley in right-center or left-center that's any deeper than 375 feet.
At Fenway Park, especially since the Red Sox will have this type of information, Cameron will play left field alongside Jacoby Ellsbury in center. The deepest part of left-center field at Fenway Park, the spot where the Green Monster ends, is at 388 feet. The deepest part of center field, on the other hand, is 420 feet away from home plate.
The guess here is that Cameron only sees time in center field for the Red Sox next season when Jacoby Ellsbury is taking one of his 15 or 20 days off.
Left-field fences across baseball, as a rule, aren't as deep as center-field fences. Bay hasn't patrolled left field at an above-average level since his 2006 season. Cameron owns three Gold Gloves -- for what that's worth -- and a resume full of above-average plus-minus numbers in center field. He ought to handle left field for the Red Sox just fine.
(Click here for a look at how Cameron might fit what the Red Sox want at the plate.)
Cameron has made a career out of being a defensive whiz in center field. The Red Sox, unless they have less faith in Jacoby Ellsbury's development than we've been led to believe, only need Cameron to play left field -- and to play it better than Bay did.
That shouldn't be an issue. Check out the defensive metrics -- and keep in mind, too, that Cameron was playing in center while Bay was playing in left:
2009
Bay: minus-11.2 UZR/minus-4 Fielding Bible
Cameron: plus-10.3 UZR/plus-3 Fielding Bible
2008
Bay: minus-18.2 UZR/minus-7 Fielding Bible
Cameron: plus-15.6 UZR/plus-7 Fielding Bible
2007
Bay: minus-11.4 UZR/minus-11 Fielding Bible
Cameron: minus-10.4 UZR/plus-1 Fielding Bible
2006
Bay: plus-3.0 UZR/plus-7 Fielding Bible
Cameron: minus-0.6 UZR/plus-5 Fielding Bible
One red flag pops up when looking at those numbers: Ultimate Zone Rating doesn't like the way Cameron played center field in 2006 and 2007.
Some context: Cameron played 2006 and 2007 in San Diego. He played 2008 and 2009 in Milwaukee. San Diego's Petco Park, as Red Sox fans lusting after Adrian Gonzalez know well, has a cavernous outfield -- it's 367 feet to left-center, 396 feet to center field and 411 to the deepest part of the park in right-center. Miller Park, on the other hand, features a center-field wall that goes back 400 feet but doesn't have a power alley in right-center or left-center that's any deeper than 375 feet.
At Fenway Park, especially since the Red Sox will have this type of information, Cameron will play left field alongside Jacoby Ellsbury in center. The deepest part of left-center field at Fenway Park, the spot where the Green Monster ends, is at 388 feet. The deepest part of center field, on the other hand, is 420 feet away from home plate.
The guess here is that Cameron only sees time in center field for the Red Sox next season when Jacoby Ellsbury is taking one of his 15 or 20 days off.
Left-field fences across baseball, as a rule, aren't as deep as center-field fences. Bay hasn't patrolled left field at an above-average level since his 2006 season. Cameron owns three Gold Gloves -- for what that's worth -- and a resume full of above-average plus-minus numbers in center field. He ought to handle left field for the Red Sox just fine.
Sunday, December 13, 2009
Going five years with Jason Bay
In what might be little more than posturing -- it would be irresponsible, after all, to close the door this early -- Jason Bay's agent told several reporters on Saturday that the left fielder is prepared to turn his attention to the other offers on the table.
"We don't agree with their evaluation of the player," agent Joe Urbon said. "Frankly, we have other offers on the table that are of greater interest to Jason."
The educated guess is that Theo Epstein would be willing to overpay a little bit for Bay in the short-term but thus far have refused to lock the Red Sox into a five-year contract. Bay turned 31 years old in September, and he would go into the final season of a five-year deal at the age of 35, turning 36 in time for that year's playoffs.
There's little doubt the left fielder's already limited range would diminish as he turned 34 and 35 years old.
With the contract of David Ortiz expiring after the 2010 season, however, there might be a spot for Bay as the Red Sox designated hitter -- if his bat holds up, that is, better than his range in the outfield.
Making predictions can be tricky. That's the biggest reason the Red Sox are so reluctant to give out five-year contracts to players already on the wrong side of 30 -- or, at least, five-year contracts to players not named J.D. Drew on the wrong side of 30.
(Drew has quite a bit to do with these negotiations -- and it's not just the fact that his contract, both in length and in amount, is a baseline for Bay. Drew might still be an above-average right fielder at age 33 or age 34, but it behooves the Red Sox to keep the option open to move him to left field either in 2010 or 2011. If Bay balks at the idea of being the heir to David Ortiz as the team's full-time designated hitter, there might not be room for both Bay and Drew in the Red Sox outfield in 2011.)
Trying to predict how well Bay will play defense in five years is one thing. Trying to predict how well Bay will hit, though, might be even more important. Let's take a look at the similar hitters on Bay's Baseball-Reference.com page and see how well they would have justified the type of contract Bay appears to want:
(For the sake of comparison, to this point in his career, Bay has a slash line of .280/.376/.519 and an OPS+ of 131. At the age of 30, Bay had a slash line of .267/.384/.537 and an OPS+ of 134.)
Ryan Klesko: 145 OPS+ at age 30
Age 31: .300/.388/.537 (OPS+ of 152)
Age 32: .252/.354/.456 (118)
Age 33: .291/.399/.448 (129)
Age 34: .248/.358/.418 (110)
Age 35: Missed season with shoulder injury
Geoff Jenkins: 130 OPS+ at age 30
Age 31: .271/.357/.434 (OPS+ of 101)
Age 32: .255/.319/.471 (101)
Age 33: .301/.392/.392 (79)
Age 34: Released before the end of spring training
Tim Salmon: 119 OPS+ at age 30
Age 31: .290/.404/.540 (OPS+ of 135)
Age 32: .227/.365/.383 (98)
Age 33: .286/.380/.503 (133)
Age 34: .275/.374/.464 (122)
Age 35: .253/.306/.323 (67)
Bobby Higginson: 120 OPS+ at age 30
Age 31: .282/.345/.417 (OPS+ of 109)
Age 32: .235/.320/.369 (88)
Age 33: .246/.353/.388 (98)
Age 34: .077/.111/.077 (minus-48)
Age 35: Out of baseball
Jim Edmonds: 146 OPS+ at age 30
Age 31: .304/.410/.564 (OPS+ of 149)
Age 32: .311/.420/.561 (158)
Age 33: .275/.385/.617 (160)
Age 34: .301/.418/.643 (170)
Age 35: .263/.385/.533 (137)
George Foster: 155 OPS+ at age 30
Age 31: .273/.362/.473 (OPS+ of 131)
Age 32: .295/.373/.519 (150)
Age 33: .247/.309/.367 (90)
Age 34: .241/.289/.419 (95)
Age 35: .269/.311/.443 (111)
Willie Stargell: 125 OPS+ at age 30
Age 31: .295/.398/.628 (OPS+ of 185)
Age 32: .293/.373/.558 (163)
Age 33: .299/.392/.646 (186)
Age 34: .301/.407/.537 (167)
Age 35: .295/.375/.516 (147)
Richard Hidalgo: OPS+ of 128 at age 30
Age 31: Played in Japan
Age 32: Released in spring training
Kevin Mitchell: OPS+ of 118 at age 30
Age 31: .341/.385/.601 (OPS+ of 159)
Age 32: .326/.429/.681 (185)
Age 33: Played in Japan
Age 34: .316/.420/.505 (138)
Age 35: .153/.275/.373 (66)
The 10th player on the list, actually, is Drew, but his data has to be thrown out because he hasn't played his age 34 or age 35 seasons yet -- the seasons most relevant to the Urbon-Epstein debate.
Of the above nine, only Edmonds and Stargell would have justified a $15 million salary at the age of 35. Klesko was all but done. Salmon was all but done. Mitchell was all but done. Hidalgo, Higginson and Jenkins were already done. Foster was productive but not exactly a middle-of-the-order type of hitter.
(The steroid era makes comparisons difficult given the way chemical assistance prolonged careers but also caused injuries and precipitous drops in production. It is what it is. There's no way around it.)
In the last five seasons, 44 outfielders have qualified for the batting title at the age of 34 or older. Seventeen have compiled an OPS+ of 120 or better. Eight have compiled an OPS+ of 130 or better.
Of the 26 outfielders who have qualified for the batting title at age 35 this decade, 12 have put up an OPS+ of 120 or better. Among those who fell short: Bobby Abreu, Sammy Sosa, Magglio Ordonez, Bernie Williams, Brian Giles, Jermaine Dye and Moises Alou.
(The tale of Ordonez ought to be particularly cautionary -- especially he signed for the same five-year, $75 million deal an educated guess has Bay being willing to accept.)
Any way you look at it, it's a 50-50 shot -- or worse -- that Bay will be a $15 million hitter, let alone fielder, by the time he's 35 years old. It's tough to blame his agent for holding out for a fifth year. It's tough to blame the Red Sox, though, for being so reluctant to give it to him.
"We don't agree with their evaluation of the player," agent Joe Urbon said. "Frankly, we have other offers on the table that are of greater interest to Jason."
The educated guess is that Theo Epstein would be willing to overpay a little bit for Bay in the short-term but thus far have refused to lock the Red Sox into a five-year contract. Bay turned 31 years old in September, and he would go into the final season of a five-year deal at the age of 35, turning 36 in time for that year's playoffs.
There's little doubt the left fielder's already limited range would diminish as he turned 34 and 35 years old.
With the contract of David Ortiz expiring after the 2010 season, however, there might be a spot for Bay as the Red Sox designated hitter -- if his bat holds up, that is, better than his range in the outfield.
Making predictions can be tricky. That's the biggest reason the Red Sox are so reluctant to give out five-year contracts to players already on the wrong side of 30 -- or, at least, five-year contracts to players not named J.D. Drew on the wrong side of 30.
(Drew has quite a bit to do with these negotiations -- and it's not just the fact that his contract, both in length and in amount, is a baseline for Bay. Drew might still be an above-average right fielder at age 33 or age 34, but it behooves the Red Sox to keep the option open to move him to left field either in 2010 or 2011. If Bay balks at the idea of being the heir to David Ortiz as the team's full-time designated hitter, there might not be room for both Bay and Drew in the Red Sox outfield in 2011.)
Trying to predict how well Bay will play defense in five years is one thing. Trying to predict how well Bay will hit, though, might be even more important. Let's take a look at the similar hitters on Bay's Baseball-Reference.com page and see how well they would have justified the type of contract Bay appears to want:
(For the sake of comparison, to this point in his career, Bay has a slash line of .280/.376/.519 and an OPS+ of 131. At the age of 30, Bay had a slash line of .267/.384/.537 and an OPS+ of 134.)
Ryan Klesko: 145 OPS+ at age 30
Age 31: .300/.388/.537 (OPS+ of 152)
Age 32: .252/.354/.456 (118)
Age 33: .291/.399/.448 (129)
Age 34: .248/.358/.418 (110)
Age 35: Missed season with shoulder injury
Geoff Jenkins: 130 OPS+ at age 30
Age 31: .271/.357/.434 (OPS+ of 101)
Age 32: .255/.319/.471 (101)
Age 33: .301/.392/.392 (79)
Age 34: Released before the end of spring training
Tim Salmon: 119 OPS+ at age 30
Age 31: .290/.404/.540 (OPS+ of 135)
Age 32: .227/.365/.383 (98)
Age 33: .286/.380/.503 (133)
Age 34: .275/.374/.464 (122)
Age 35: .253/.306/.323 (67)
Bobby Higginson: 120 OPS+ at age 30
Age 31: .282/.345/.417 (OPS+ of 109)
Age 32: .235/.320/.369 (88)
Age 33: .246/.353/.388 (98)
Age 34: .077/.111/.077 (minus-48)
Age 35: Out of baseball
Jim Edmonds: 146 OPS+ at age 30
Age 31: .304/.410/.564 (OPS+ of 149)
Age 32: .311/.420/.561 (158)
Age 33: .275/.385/.617 (160)
Age 34: .301/.418/.643 (170)
Age 35: .263/.385/.533 (137)
George Foster: 155 OPS+ at age 30
Age 31: .273/.362/.473 (OPS+ of 131)
Age 32: .295/.373/.519 (150)
Age 33: .247/.309/.367 (90)
Age 34: .241/.289/.419 (95)
Age 35: .269/.311/.443 (111)
Willie Stargell: 125 OPS+ at age 30
Age 31: .295/.398/.628 (OPS+ of 185)
Age 32: .293/.373/.558 (163)
Age 33: .299/.392/.646 (186)
Age 34: .301/.407/.537 (167)
Age 35: .295/.375/.516 (147)
Richard Hidalgo: OPS+ of 128 at age 30
Age 31: Played in Japan
Age 32: Released in spring training
Kevin Mitchell: OPS+ of 118 at age 30
Age 31: .341/.385/.601 (OPS+ of 159)
Age 32: .326/.429/.681 (185)
Age 33: Played in Japan
Age 34: .316/.420/.505 (138)
Age 35: .153/.275/.373 (66)
The 10th player on the list, actually, is Drew, but his data has to be thrown out because he hasn't played his age 34 or age 35 seasons yet -- the seasons most relevant to the Urbon-Epstein debate.
Of the above nine, only Edmonds and Stargell would have justified a $15 million salary at the age of 35. Klesko was all but done. Salmon was all but done. Mitchell was all but done. Hidalgo, Higginson and Jenkins were already done. Foster was productive but not exactly a middle-of-the-order type of hitter.
(The steroid era makes comparisons difficult given the way chemical assistance prolonged careers but also caused injuries and precipitous drops in production. It is what it is. There's no way around it.)
In the last five seasons, 44 outfielders have qualified for the batting title at the age of 34 or older. Seventeen have compiled an OPS+ of 120 or better. Eight have compiled an OPS+ of 130 or better.
Of the 26 outfielders who have qualified for the batting title at age 35 this decade, 12 have put up an OPS+ of 120 or better. Among those who fell short: Bobby Abreu, Sammy Sosa, Magglio Ordonez, Bernie Williams, Brian Giles, Jermaine Dye and Moises Alou.
(The tale of Ordonez ought to be particularly cautionary -- especially he signed for the same five-year, $75 million deal an educated guess has Bay being willing to accept.)
Any way you look at it, it's a 50-50 shot -- or worse -- that Bay will be a $15 million hitter, let alone fielder, by the time he's 35 years old. It's tough to blame his agent for holding out for a fifth year. It's tough to blame the Red Sox, though, for being so reluctant to give it to him.
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Why the Red Sox shouldn't overreact
To take things a step further: Writers and radio talk-show hosts alike are starting to clamor for Theo Epstein to do something big this offseason because the Yankees are pulling away.
They're wrong.
In fact, it's pretty easy to demonstrate why the Red Sox already are vastly improved over the team they fielded on Opening Day last season -- a deal for Jason Bay or an adequate replacement notwithstanding.
Hold onto your hats: We're going to do this using the Wins Above Replacement statistic. The statistic itself is more complex than the NFL's quarterback rating, but here's the basic gist: It calculates how many runs a player produces at the plate and how many runs a player prevents in the field. You then compare this number to the number of runs an average player at that particular position would have produced and prevented.
Every 10 extra runs produced or prevented, people who are smarter than me have figured out, tends to turn into one extra win -- hence Wins Above Replacement. Voila.
The beauty of WAR is that it's cumulative. A guy who hits .300 and play 100 games is less valuable than a guy who hits .300 and plays 120 games. A relief pitcher with a 2.00 ERA in 70 innings is less valuable than a starting pitcher with a 4.00 ERA in 200 innings. (Really. We can go over it if you'd like.)
It's tough to quantify with other statistics just how significant it is that the Red Sox go from four months of Jason Varitek and two months of Victor Martinez to six months of Martinez. But because WAR is cumulative, we actually can add up four months of Varitek and two months of Martinez and add them together and compare them to six months of Martinez.
(This is, of course, all based on last season's numbers. But no one other than maybe Marco Scutaro seemed to have a career year and is due for a precipitous fall, and no one -- I'm looking at you, David Ortiz -- seems all that likely to have a huge bounce-back year that would skew the numbers dramatically.)
Catcher
2009, Varitek/Martinez: 2.4
(To do this, you have to take two-thirds of Varitek's 2009 WAR total and add it to one-third of Martinez's 2009 WAR total since he only played in Boston in August and September.)
2010, Martinez: 4.9
First base
Second base
Third base
All constants. If the Red Sox replace Mike Lowell with Adrian Beltre, that's an upgrade from 1.2 WAR to 2.4 WAR based mostly on the defense of the two respective players.
Shortstop
2009, Nick Green/Alex Gonzalez: 0.6
(The formula here is Green for four months plus Gonzalez for two months. This actually is even more generous than it appears because Julio Lugo managed a negative WAR in his tenure in Boston before he was designated for assignment.)
2010, Scutaro: 4.5
(Need another reminder why Scutaro is such an important pickup for the Red Sox? Even if he regresses to his numbers from two seasons ago, he's still at 2.7 and a two-win upgrade over the Green/Gonzalez duo of a year ago.)
Right field
Center field
Both constants.
Left field
2009, Jason Bay: 3.1
2010, Who knows?
Victor Martinez for an entire season in place of Victor Martinez for one-third of a season is a monster upgrade. Scutaro in place of Nick Green is another monster upgrade. That's the case -- and we can't emphasize this enough -- even if he regresses. Those two moves alone are worth at least five wins to the Red Sox.
If the Red Sox lose Bay, they'll need to make a move to replace him.
(It seems increasingly unlikely they'll lose Bay, by the way. The Angels have said they're out. The Mariners and their defense-first philosophy don't seem to be a fit. The Yankees always are lurking, but they've also made noise about keeping their payroll within reason. Who else is there? He ain't going back to Pittsburgh.)
If they do bring back Bay, there's no reason to go out and do something silly just because the Yankees made a trade for a center fielder.
They're wrong.
In fact, it's pretty easy to demonstrate why the Red Sox already are vastly improved over the team they fielded on Opening Day last season -- a deal for Jason Bay or an adequate replacement notwithstanding.
Hold onto your hats: We're going to do this using the Wins Above Replacement statistic. The statistic itself is more complex than the NFL's quarterback rating, but here's the basic gist: It calculates how many runs a player produces at the plate and how many runs a player prevents in the field. You then compare this number to the number of runs an average player at that particular position would have produced and prevented.
Every 10 extra runs produced or prevented, people who are smarter than me have figured out, tends to turn into one extra win -- hence Wins Above Replacement. Voila.
The beauty of WAR is that it's cumulative. A guy who hits .300 and play 100 games is less valuable than a guy who hits .300 and plays 120 games. A relief pitcher with a 2.00 ERA in 70 innings is less valuable than a starting pitcher with a 4.00 ERA in 200 innings. (Really. We can go over it if you'd like.)
It's tough to quantify with other statistics just how significant it is that the Red Sox go from four months of Jason Varitek and two months of Victor Martinez to six months of Martinez. But because WAR is cumulative, we actually can add up four months of Varitek and two months of Martinez and add them together and compare them to six months of Martinez.
(This is, of course, all based on last season's numbers. But no one other than maybe Marco Scutaro seemed to have a career year and is due for a precipitous fall, and no one -- I'm looking at you, David Ortiz -- seems all that likely to have a huge bounce-back year that would skew the numbers dramatically.)
Catcher
2009, Varitek/Martinez: 2.4
(To do this, you have to take two-thirds of Varitek's 2009 WAR total and add it to one-third of Martinez's 2009 WAR total since he only played in Boston in August and September.)
2010, Martinez: 4.9
First base
Second base
Third base
All constants. If the Red Sox replace Mike Lowell with Adrian Beltre, that's an upgrade from 1.2 WAR to 2.4 WAR based mostly on the defense of the two respective players.
Shortstop
2009, Nick Green/Alex Gonzalez: 0.6
(The formula here is Green for four months plus Gonzalez for two months. This actually is even more generous than it appears because Julio Lugo managed a negative WAR in his tenure in Boston before he was designated for assignment.)
2010, Scutaro: 4.5
(Need another reminder why Scutaro is such an important pickup for the Red Sox? Even if he regresses to his numbers from two seasons ago, he's still at 2.7 and a two-win upgrade over the Green/Gonzalez duo of a year ago.)
Right field
Center field
Both constants.
Left field
2009, Jason Bay: 3.1
2010, Who knows?
Victor Martinez for an entire season in place of Victor Martinez for one-third of a season is a monster upgrade. Scutaro in place of Nick Green is another monster upgrade. That's the case -- and we can't emphasize this enough -- even if he regresses. Those two moves alone are worth at least five wins to the Red Sox.
If the Red Sox lose Bay, they'll need to make a move to replace him.
(It seems increasingly unlikely they'll lose Bay, by the way. The Angels have said they're out. The Mariners and their defense-first philosophy don't seem to be a fit. The Yankees always are lurking, but they've also made noise about keeping their payroll within reason. Who else is there? He ain't going back to Pittsburgh.)
If they do bring back Bay, there's no reason to go out and do something silly just because the Yankees made a trade for a center fielder.
Thursday, December 3, 2009
Matt Holliday can hit on the road
With the new rumor circulating that Jason Bay is being courted by the Seattle Mariners, it makes sense to take a look at the other high-profile left fielder on the market. Matt Holliday is younger than Bay and a better outfielder than Bay, but his inability to hit in his four months in the American League, not to mention his history with Coors Field, makes one wary of how he might do in Boston.
It doesn't take much investigating, though, to discover that Holliday might be just the type of well-rounded hitter the Red Sox need.
Holliday was a beneficiary of Coors Field for years. He put up an OPS at home of 1.000 or better in four straight years with the Rockies and never OPS'ed less than .982 in his six seasons in Colorado. What's remarkable about his numbers on the road, though, is the obvious trend:
Matt Holliday's year-by-year OPS on the road
2004: .654
2005: .729
2006: .819
2007: .860
2008: .892
2009: .830
As Holliday has matured as a hitter, his numbers on the road have climbed northward year after year. He can be considered a hitter who will put up an OPS of close to .850 on the road every year -- a mark that would have ranked him fourth on the Red Sox last season:
* Kevin Youkilis, .933
* Victor Martinez, .925
* Jason Bay, .904
* J.D. Drew, .844
* Jacoby Ellsbury, .742
* Dustin Pedroia, .736
* Mike Lowell, .713
* David Ortiz, .703
The Red Sox don't need another hitter who will tattoo the Green Monster. They already score runs in bunches at home. The Red Sox need a hitter with power to all fields, a hitter who can take advantage of the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium just as easily as he can take advantage of the short porch in left field at Fenway Park.
Check out the home runs Holliday hit in 2009:
And in 2008:
Holliday has gotten better and better on the road every year -- and he has the power-to-all-fields swing that's indicative of strong road hitters.
He's probably never going to replicate the 1.012 OPS he put up three seasons ago with the help of Coors Field. But there's little reason to believe he can't replicate the .921 OPS Jason Bay put up last season -- and he'd probably play better defense, too.
It doesn't take much investigating, though, to discover that Holliday might be just the type of well-rounded hitter the Red Sox need.
Holliday was a beneficiary of Coors Field for years. He put up an OPS at home of 1.000 or better in four straight years with the Rockies and never OPS'ed less than .982 in his six seasons in Colorado. What's remarkable about his numbers on the road, though, is the obvious trend:
Matt Holliday's year-by-year OPS on the road
2004: .654
2005: .729
2006: .819
2007: .860
2008: .892
2009: .830
As Holliday has matured as a hitter, his numbers on the road have climbed northward year after year. He can be considered a hitter who will put up an OPS of close to .850 on the road every year -- a mark that would have ranked him fourth on the Red Sox last season:
* Kevin Youkilis, .933
* Victor Martinez, .925
* Jason Bay, .904
* J.D. Drew, .844
* Jacoby Ellsbury, .742
* Dustin Pedroia, .736
* Mike Lowell, .713
* David Ortiz, .703
The Red Sox don't need another hitter who will tattoo the Green Monster. They already score runs in bunches at home. The Red Sox need a hitter with power to all fields, a hitter who can take advantage of the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium just as easily as he can take advantage of the short porch in left field at Fenway Park.
Check out the home runs Holliday hit in 2009:
And in 2008:
Holliday has gotten better and better on the road every year -- and he has the power-to-all-fields swing that's indicative of strong road hitters.
He's probably never going to replicate the 1.012 OPS he put up three seasons ago with the help of Coors Field. But there's little reason to believe he can't replicate the .921 OPS Jason Bay put up last season -- and he'd probably play better defense, too.
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Defense in left field far too overlooked
It might have raised some eyebrows when Fox Sports reported that the Red Sox were among the teams interested in the Marlins' Dan Uggla -- to play left field.
The news brings to mind a question that already should have come to mind given how much money the Red Sox are prepared to pay Jason Bay: How important is defense in left field?
The answer: More than it's given credit for.
The more you think about it, in fact, the more outrageous it seems that teams routinely stick their worst defensive outfielder in left field. Righthanded hitters outnumber lefthanded hitters by about a 1.5-to-1 margin in the major leagues, and that means far more fly balls end up being hit to left field instead of right field.
Most teams, however, stick their best defensive corner outfielder in right field because he'll have a chance to throw out a runner going from first to third on a single a couple of dozen times a year. Even the Red Sox do it: J.D. Drew played right field last season and Jason Bay played left field -- and Drew is a significantly better defensive outfielder than Bay.
According to FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement metric, a statistic that measures both hitting and fielding to determine how much better a player is than an average Triple-A replacement, defense among left fielders is tremendously undervalued.
Matt Holliday led all left fielders in WAR thanks in part to the fact that his fielding ability was on the plus side of the ledger rather than the minus. Here's how the top half of the leaderboard looked (with Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 games in parentheses):
Holliday, 5.7 (6.0)
Carl Crawford, 5.5 (17.5)
Nyjer Morgan, 4.9 (30.8)
Ryan Braun, 4.8 (minus-13.6)
Raul Ibanez, 4.2 (10.7)
Denard Span, 3.8 (16.7)
Adam Lind, 3.7 (minus-24)
Jason Bay, 3.5 (minus-11.2)
Funny thing: Five of the top six spots are taken by left fielders who make a positive rather than negative impact with the glove. Conventional wisdom would suggest that you'd take Ryan Braun over Nyjer Morgan every day of the week and twice on day-night doubleheaders. But that just shows how undervalued defense among left fielders really is.
Like first basemen, left fielders always have been judged solely on their ability to hit -- which is strange given how many fly balls tend to be hit to left field. A team that can find an speedy left fielder with good instincts -- a Crawford or a Morgan, for example -- has an upper hand on one that has to stick a statue in left field and hope for the best.
Fortunately for Uggla, he doesn't hit like a second baseman. He hits like -- well, he hits like a left fielder. His OPS'es over the last three seasons:
2007: .805
2008: .874
2009: .813
The .813 OPS he recorded last season would have ranked him 25th out of 62 full-time outfielders -- right in between Carl Crawford and Denard Span and ahead of names like Jacoby Ellsbury, Nick Markakis and Shane Victorino.
That, by his standards, was a disappointing season.
The next question that comes to mind: Can Uggla play a left field decent enough to make a trade -- and an expected $7 million salary -- worthwhile?
Nine players have played at least 30 games at second base and in the outfield in a season over the last three seasons -- and all but two were significantly better in the outfield than at second base:
(Sorry for the weird white space here. There are no HTML experts in these parts, and that means formatting experiments kind of go awry.)
Other than Schumaker -- who might be the victim of small sample size, as he played a pretty decent outfield with more playing time in 2008 -- and Burke, just about everyone else was a bad defensive second baseman who turned into a pretty solid defensive outfielder.
Here's the caveat: Most of the above players moved because they were lousy defensive second basemen. You just don't take a guy who can handle second base competently and stick him in left field.
Uggla is not a competent defensive second baseman, either. His bat just provides enough thump to compensate for his defensive shortcomings. Check out his UZR/150 numbers for the past three seasons:
2007: minus-11.3
2008: 2.0
2009: minus-9.6
Among second basemen in the major leagues this season, only Luis Castillo was worse.
Maybe Uggla can do what Mark DeRosa and B.J. Upton have done -- that is, take the athleticism that makes them to look like second basemen and use it to chase down fly balls in the outfield. If he can do that, he might turn himself from an infielder who makes a negative impact defensively into an outfielder who makes a positive impact defensively.
And if he can hit the way most teams expect he can hit, well, he might not be such a bad fit in left field at Fenway Park.
The news brings to mind a question that already should have come to mind given how much money the Red Sox are prepared to pay Jason Bay: How important is defense in left field?
The answer: More than it's given credit for.
The more you think about it, in fact, the more outrageous it seems that teams routinely stick their worst defensive outfielder in left field. Righthanded hitters outnumber lefthanded hitters by about a 1.5-to-1 margin in the major leagues, and that means far more fly balls end up being hit to left field instead of right field.
Most teams, however, stick their best defensive corner outfielder in right field because he'll have a chance to throw out a runner going from first to third on a single a couple of dozen times a year. Even the Red Sox do it: J.D. Drew played right field last season and Jason Bay played left field -- and Drew is a significantly better defensive outfielder than Bay.
According to FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement metric, a statistic that measures both hitting and fielding to determine how much better a player is than an average Triple-A replacement, defense among left fielders is tremendously undervalued.
Matt Holliday led all left fielders in WAR thanks in part to the fact that his fielding ability was on the plus side of the ledger rather than the minus. Here's how the top half of the leaderboard looked (with Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 games in parentheses):
Holliday, 5.7 (6.0)
Carl Crawford, 5.5 (17.5)
Nyjer Morgan, 4.9 (30.8)
Ryan Braun, 4.8 (minus-13.6)
Raul Ibanez, 4.2 (10.7)
Denard Span, 3.8 (16.7)
Adam Lind, 3.7 (minus-24)
Jason Bay, 3.5 (minus-11.2)
Funny thing: Five of the top six spots are taken by left fielders who make a positive rather than negative impact with the glove. Conventional wisdom would suggest that you'd take Ryan Braun over Nyjer Morgan every day of the week and twice on day-night doubleheaders. But that just shows how undervalued defense among left fielders really is.
Like first basemen, left fielders always have been judged solely on their ability to hit -- which is strange given how many fly balls tend to be hit to left field. A team that can find an speedy left fielder with good instincts -- a Crawford or a Morgan, for example -- has an upper hand on one that has to stick a statue in left field and hope for the best.
Fortunately for Uggla, he doesn't hit like a second baseman. He hits like -- well, he hits like a left fielder. His OPS'es over the last three seasons:
2007: .805
2008: .874
2009: .813
The .813 OPS he recorded last season would have ranked him 25th out of 62 full-time outfielders -- right in between Carl Crawford and Denard Span and ahead of names like Jacoby Ellsbury, Nick Markakis and Shane Victorino.
That, by his standards, was a disappointing season.
The next question that comes to mind: Can Uggla play a left field decent enough to make a trade -- and an expected $7 million salary -- worthwhile?
Nine players have played at least 30 games at second base and in the outfield in a season over the last three seasons -- and all but two were significantly better in the outfield than at second base:
(Sorry for the weird white space here. There are no HTML experts in these parts, and that means formatting experiments kind of go awry.)
| Name | UZR at 2B | UZR at OF |
| Skip Schumaker, 2009 | -8.5 | -46.5 |
| Chris Burke, 2007 | -2.8 | -21.4 |
| Ben Zobrist, 2009 | 30.8 | 31.6 |
| Delwyn Young, 2009 | -17.1 | -2.6 |
| Esteban German, 2008 | -15.6 | 6.0 |
| Mark DeRosa, 2008 | -15.9 | 11.5 |
| B.J. Upton, 2007 | -25.8 | 3.6 |
| Joe Inglett, 2008 | -9.1 | 22.1 |
| Eugenio Velez, 2009 | -28.1 | 17.9 |
Other than Schumaker -- who might be the victim of small sample size, as he played a pretty decent outfield with more playing time in 2008 -- and Burke, just about everyone else was a bad defensive second baseman who turned into a pretty solid defensive outfielder.
Here's the caveat: Most of the above players moved because they were lousy defensive second basemen. You just don't take a guy who can handle second base competently and stick him in left field.
Uggla is not a competent defensive second baseman, either. His bat just provides enough thump to compensate for his defensive shortcomings. Check out his UZR/150 numbers for the past three seasons:
2007: minus-11.3
2008: 2.0
2009: minus-9.6
Among second basemen in the major leagues this season, only Luis Castillo was worse.
Maybe Uggla can do what Mark DeRosa and B.J. Upton have done -- that is, take the athleticism that makes them to look like second basemen and use it to chase down fly balls in the outfield. If he can do that, he might turn himself from an infielder who makes a negative impact defensively into an outfielder who makes a positive impact defensively.
And if he can hit the way most teams expect he can hit, well, he might not be such a bad fit in left field at Fenway Park.
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
A closer look at Josh Willingham
Last night's look at arbitration-eligible players dredged up a name you have to believe Theo Epstein already is thinking long and hard about: Josh Willingham.
The closer Jason Bay gets to free agency -- if the Yankees close out the Phillies on Wednesday night, he'll be allowed to field offers starting Nov. 19 -- the more likely it is he heads elsewhere. So many teams need a power hitter that there's sure to be plenty of competition; the San Francisco Giants have joined the Seattle Mariners as a logical landing spot for a native of British Columbia who could immediately hit cleanup in either lineup.
(The Giants won 88 games and finished third in the National League West this season with Bengie Molina -- Bengie Molina! -- hitting cleanup in well over two-thirds of their games.)
Epstein already has to be making contingency plans -- and one of his best contingency plans might be Willingham.
You could make an argument, in fact, that the Red Sox might be better off trading Manny Delcarmen and Felix Doubront to the Washington Nationals for Willingham than they would be by signing Bay. Here's why:
1. Money
* Bay almost certainly is going to command a salary of $15 million a season for four seasons, minimum. He'd be 35 years old at the conclusion of a four-year contract -- and, many believe, relegated to duties as a designated hitter.
* Willingham is primed for an arbitration award somewhere in the vicinity of $5 million for next season.
2. Flexibility
* Bay, again, has to be given a commitment of four or five years if he's going to sign on the dotted line.
* Willingham will become a free agent after the 2010 season. The Red Sox then would have more than a few options heading into next winter, including:
--- Going after a free agent like Carl Crawford, Adam Dunn or Jayson Werth.
--- Giving the job to a youngster who's ready for it like Ryan Kalish or Josh Reddick, highly touted prospects who need more seasoning in Triple-A in 2010 but who easily could be factors in 2011.
--- Re-signing Willingham, who is only a few months younger than Bay, to a short-term contract.
3. Value
* Based on Wins Above Replacement, a statistic that measures a player's contribution on offense and defense against an ordinary Triple-A replacement, Bay has contributed 2.9 and 3.4 wins to his teams over the last two seasons -- something FanGraphs calculates as being worth a total of $28.5 million.
* Willingham, during the same span, has contributed 2.4 and 2.3 wins to his teams, something FanGraphs calculates as being worth $21 million.
The choice above is to pay $15 million next season for $14 million worth of production -- or to pay $5 million for $10 million worth of production.
(Oh, and the Red Sox then would have $10 million to spend elsewhere -- perhaps on Chone Figgins to play third base, for example.)
4. Fitting in at Fenway Park
* Bay, of course, loved hitting at Fenway Park. His opposite-field power cost him some home runs to right-center field, but he certainly took advantage of the Green Monster.
* Willingham, though, looks like he'll love hitting at Fenway Park, too. Check out his home-run charts from the past two seasons:
2009
2008
That, my friends, is a hitter who would love the Green Monster.
5. Fitting in away from Fenway Park
Epstein spoke last month of the need to balance out his team, to find hitters who hit on the road as well as at home. Willingham OPS'ed .753 at home a year ago and .962 on the road; for his career, Willingham has a .772 OPS in home games and a .902 OPS on the road.
The closer Jason Bay gets to free agency -- if the Yankees close out the Phillies on Wednesday night, he'll be allowed to field offers starting Nov. 19 -- the more likely it is he heads elsewhere. So many teams need a power hitter that there's sure to be plenty of competition; the San Francisco Giants have joined the Seattle Mariners as a logical landing spot for a native of British Columbia who could immediately hit cleanup in either lineup.
(The Giants won 88 games and finished third in the National League West this season with Bengie Molina -- Bengie Molina! -- hitting cleanup in well over two-thirds of their games.)
Epstein already has to be making contingency plans -- and one of his best contingency plans might be Willingham.
You could make an argument, in fact, that the Red Sox might be better off trading Manny Delcarmen and Felix Doubront to the Washington Nationals for Willingham than they would be by signing Bay. Here's why:
1. Money
* Bay almost certainly is going to command a salary of $15 million a season for four seasons, minimum. He'd be 35 years old at the conclusion of a four-year contract -- and, many believe, relegated to duties as a designated hitter.
* Willingham is primed for an arbitration award somewhere in the vicinity of $5 million for next season.
2. Flexibility
* Bay, again, has to be given a commitment of four or five years if he's going to sign on the dotted line.
* Willingham will become a free agent after the 2010 season. The Red Sox then would have more than a few options heading into next winter, including:
--- Going after a free agent like Carl Crawford, Adam Dunn or Jayson Werth.
--- Giving the job to a youngster who's ready for it like Ryan Kalish or Josh Reddick, highly touted prospects who need more seasoning in Triple-A in 2010 but who easily could be factors in 2011.
--- Re-signing Willingham, who is only a few months younger than Bay, to a short-term contract.
3. Value
* Based on Wins Above Replacement, a statistic that measures a player's contribution on offense and defense against an ordinary Triple-A replacement, Bay has contributed 2.9 and 3.4 wins to his teams over the last two seasons -- something FanGraphs calculates as being worth a total of $28.5 million.
* Willingham, during the same span, has contributed 2.4 and 2.3 wins to his teams, something FanGraphs calculates as being worth $21 million.
The choice above is to pay $15 million next season for $14 million worth of production -- or to pay $5 million for $10 million worth of production.
(Oh, and the Red Sox then would have $10 million to spend elsewhere -- perhaps on Chone Figgins to play third base, for example.)
4. Fitting in at Fenway Park
* Bay, of course, loved hitting at Fenway Park. His opposite-field power cost him some home runs to right-center field, but he certainly took advantage of the Green Monster.
* Willingham, though, looks like he'll love hitting at Fenway Park, too. Check out his home-run charts from the past two seasons:
2009
2008
That, my friends, is a hitter who would love the Green Monster.
5. Fitting in away from Fenway Park
Epstein spoke last month of the need to balance out his team, to find hitters who hit on the road as well as at home. Willingham OPS'ed .753 at home a year ago and .962 on the road; for his career, Willingham has a .772 OPS in home games and a .902 OPS on the road.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Jason Bay's agent off base
"The only defensive statistic that I know for sure that is easily measurable is outfield assists and errors committed, and Jason is just the third outfielder in major league history to lead the league in outfield assists while not creating an error all season, the last guy being Carl Yastrzemski. It used to be that those statistics were enough. In baseball we all need a better evaluation of defensive ability but the defensive metrics we have out there are so debatable, and in most cases proprietary, that it is hard to quantify a player’s ability to play defense."
-- Joe Urbon, Jason Bay's agent
It's hard to believe Theo Epstein did anything but start chuckling when he read the salvo from Joe Urbon, the agent representing Jason Bay this offseason, in an interview with WEEI.
No one questions the way Jason Bay hits -- and if the Red Sox offered him a four- or five-year deal, they wouldn't expect the way he hits to decline much over the course of that contract.
His fielding, however, is another story.
Bay finished this season with an OPS+ of 132 -- second-best among Red Sox hitters and 12th-best in the American League, according to Baseball-Reference.com. According to FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement statistic, however, Bay ranked fourth among Red Sox position players and 32nd in the American League.
The reason? His defense.
Among the 29 qualified outfielders in the major leagues, Bay ranked 25th in Ultimate Zone Rating (according to FanGraphs) and 23rd in The Fielding Bible's plus-minus system (according to BillJamesOnline.com). Not since 2006, in fact, has Bay recorded a plus-minus or an UZR better than 0 -- in other words, better than average.
"It’s a surprise,” Urbon told WEEI. "I think that most people who evaluate for a living, their reaction is that that is not true. All I can go by are comments by his teammates and others who have seen him play day in and day out. Obviously the only comparison we have as a Red Sox is to Manny and that’s probably not favorable to Jason, really. But the feedback I’ve gotten from evaluators is that he plays that position as well as anybody they’ve seen, and that was really from Day 1 or Week 1 coming in and playing left field at Fenway back at the trade deadline last year."
(We'll ignore the contradiction there: He implies that Manny Ramirez played left field at Fenway Park better than Bay did and then says that Bay plays that position as well as anybody.)
Here's part of the issue: Baseball is still coming around on advanced statistical measures. (Here's a Sports Illustrated story from this spring that describes the revolution as well as anyone has.) Many talent evaluators -- and, just as importantly, many players -- still believe in the idea that the player with the fewest errors is the best defensive player.
"I don’t think anybody really believes in that stuff," Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia told this writer back in May. "I don’t really know how they do that. My biggest focus is, if the ball is hit to me, pick it up and throw it and get an out. You don’t need zone ratings or anything like that to tell who’s a good defensive player and who’s not. You can pretty much look out on the field and tell who can play defense and who can’t."
Bay, of course, comes out at the top of the heap in the most widely accepted statistical measures: Errors and fielding percentage. Bay finished this season with zero errors -- fewer than David Ortiz, even -- and a fielding percentage of 1.000. No player in the major leagues -- at any position -- handled as many chances as Bay without flubbing at least one.
But there's a fundamental issue with that measurement when you're evaluating outfielders: An outfielder only can be charged with an error if he gets to a ball -- and the worst outfielders aren't going to get to as many balls. Even if an outfielder almost gets to a ball but allows it to glance off his glove, he often won't be charged with an error. The only way to guarantee the official scorer will hang an error on an outfielder is if a throw gets away and allows a runner to move up a base.
Jason Bay can throw. Jason Bay might not have the world's strongest throwing arm, but it's certainly accurate: Only Houston's Hunter Pence finished the season with more outfield assists (16) than Bay (15). Urbon certainly isn't lying when he cites statistics that show Bay's arm being both accurate and reliable.
But arm doesn't tell the whole story. It barely tells half the story. The best outfielders are the ones that chase down fly balls in every direction -- and Bay just doesn't have the ability to do that. The Fielding Bible awarded him a plus-1 on shallow fly balls and a plus-6 on medium fly balls but an abysmal minus-14 on deep fly balls.
Some uncertainty exists about how much the Green Monster hurts Bay in his statistical measures, about whether balls that hit 10 feet up on the wall count against him or not. John Dewan, the creator of the plus-minus metric, claimed in a forum on the Sons of Sam Horn message board that his system includes a park adjustment named for Ramirez, its primary beneficiary during his years with the Red Sox.
But Bay had a minus-19 in his final full season with the Pirates in 2007 and a minus-11 in 2008, a season in which he spent four months in Pittsburgh and two months in Boston. As he gets older -- he turned 31 in September -- his range inevitably will decline.
"Let’s not over-focus on the defense," Urbon told WEEI. "We used to not focus on defense at all as a free agent. Now it seems like that’s all we’re focusing on, and there has to be a reason for it."
There is: When a team is being asked to shell out $15 million a year for four or five years, the type of numbers Bay's camp presumably is throwing out there, that player had better be more than a one-dimensional threat. Bay might be a tremendous hitter and an even better guy in the clubhouse, but if he's going to have to be a designated hitter by 2011 or 2012, well, he might not be worth the type of money he wants.
-- Joe Urbon, Jason Bay's agent
It's hard to believe Theo Epstein did anything but start chuckling when he read the salvo from Joe Urbon, the agent representing Jason Bay this offseason, in an interview with WEEI.
No one questions the way Jason Bay hits -- and if the Red Sox offered him a four- or five-year deal, they wouldn't expect the way he hits to decline much over the course of that contract.
His fielding, however, is another story.
Bay finished this season with an OPS+ of 132 -- second-best among Red Sox hitters and 12th-best in the American League, according to Baseball-Reference.com. According to FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement statistic, however, Bay ranked fourth among Red Sox position players and 32nd in the American League.
The reason? His defense.
Among the 29 qualified outfielders in the major leagues, Bay ranked 25th in Ultimate Zone Rating (according to FanGraphs) and 23rd in The Fielding Bible's plus-minus system (according to BillJamesOnline.com). Not since 2006, in fact, has Bay recorded a plus-minus or an UZR better than 0 -- in other words, better than average.
"It’s a surprise,” Urbon told WEEI. "I think that most people who evaluate for a living, their reaction is that that is not true. All I can go by are comments by his teammates and others who have seen him play day in and day out. Obviously the only comparison we have as a Red Sox is to Manny and that’s probably not favorable to Jason, really. But the feedback I’ve gotten from evaluators is that he plays that position as well as anybody they’ve seen, and that was really from Day 1 or Week 1 coming in and playing left field at Fenway back at the trade deadline last year."
(We'll ignore the contradiction there: He implies that Manny Ramirez played left field at Fenway Park better than Bay did and then says that Bay plays that position as well as anybody.)
Here's part of the issue: Baseball is still coming around on advanced statistical measures. (Here's a Sports Illustrated story from this spring that describes the revolution as well as anyone has.) Many talent evaluators -- and, just as importantly, many players -- still believe in the idea that the player with the fewest errors is the best defensive player.
"I don’t think anybody really believes in that stuff," Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia told this writer back in May. "I don’t really know how they do that. My biggest focus is, if the ball is hit to me, pick it up and throw it and get an out. You don’t need zone ratings or anything like that to tell who’s a good defensive player and who’s not. You can pretty much look out on the field and tell who can play defense and who can’t."
Bay, of course, comes out at the top of the heap in the most widely accepted statistical measures: Errors and fielding percentage. Bay finished this season with zero errors -- fewer than David Ortiz, even -- and a fielding percentage of 1.000. No player in the major leagues -- at any position -- handled as many chances as Bay without flubbing at least one.
But there's a fundamental issue with that measurement when you're evaluating outfielders: An outfielder only can be charged with an error if he gets to a ball -- and the worst outfielders aren't going to get to as many balls. Even if an outfielder almost gets to a ball but allows it to glance off his glove, he often won't be charged with an error. The only way to guarantee the official scorer will hang an error on an outfielder is if a throw gets away and allows a runner to move up a base.
Jason Bay can throw. Jason Bay might not have the world's strongest throwing arm, but it's certainly accurate: Only Houston's Hunter Pence finished the season with more outfield assists (16) than Bay (15). Urbon certainly isn't lying when he cites statistics that show Bay's arm being both accurate and reliable.
But arm doesn't tell the whole story. It barely tells half the story. The best outfielders are the ones that chase down fly balls in every direction -- and Bay just doesn't have the ability to do that. The Fielding Bible awarded him a plus-1 on shallow fly balls and a plus-6 on medium fly balls but an abysmal minus-14 on deep fly balls.
Some uncertainty exists about how much the Green Monster hurts Bay in his statistical measures, about whether balls that hit 10 feet up on the wall count against him or not. John Dewan, the creator of the plus-minus metric, claimed in a forum on the Sons of Sam Horn message board that his system includes a park adjustment named for Ramirez, its primary beneficiary during his years with the Red Sox.
But Bay had a minus-19 in his final full season with the Pirates in 2007 and a minus-11 in 2008, a season in which he spent four months in Pittsburgh and two months in Boston. As he gets older -- he turned 31 in September -- his range inevitably will decline.
"Let’s not over-focus on the defense," Urbon told WEEI. "We used to not focus on defense at all as a free agent. Now it seems like that’s all we’re focusing on, and there has to be a reason for it."
There is: When a team is being asked to shell out $15 million a year for four or five years, the type of numbers Bay's camp presumably is throwing out there, that player had better be more than a one-dimensional threat. Bay might be a tremendous hitter and an even better guy in the clubhouse, but if he's going to have to be a designated hitter by 2011 or 2012, well, he might not be worth the type of money he wants.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Red Sox MVP No. 3: Jason Bay
(A five-part series about the players most integral to the success the Red Sox enjoyed this season. Previously appearing on the countdown: Closer Jonathan Papelbon at No. 5 and starting pitcher Josh Beckett at No. 4.)
Two other players -- it shouldn't be hard to guess their identities -- could be considered more valuable to the Red Sox this season than Jason Bay. No player, though, personnified the ups and downs of the Red Sox season more than the slugging left fielder.
From Opening Day until June 23, a span during which Bay OPS'ed .989 and inspired "Sign Jason Bay" chants all over New England, the Red Sox went 43-27 (.614) and surged out to a five-game lead in the American League East. Over the next six weeks, though, Bay hit .177 and OPS'ed .614 as the Red Sox tumbled 6 1/2 games behind the Yankees.
But from Aug. 10 until the end of the season, Bay hit .301 and OPS'ed 1.026 as the Red Sox kept pace with the Yankees and locked up the American League's wild card.
The Red Sox knew they'd be getting a streaky hitter when they acquired Bay. Check out some of his Mays and Junes over the years:
May 2006: 1.090 OPS
June 2006: .776 OPS
May 2007: .939 OPS
June 2007: .569 OPS
May 2008: 1.077 OPS
June 2008: .831 OPS
His dip two years ago, actually, was even more epic than his dip this season:
May 2009: .978 OPS
June 2009: .701 OPS
As the Red Sox are weighing the value of signing Bay to a multiyear contract, however, it's not his streakiness that's the issue. That's the given. The issue is this: Before this season, Bay hadn't had a .900-plus OPS for an entire year since 2006. With his 31st birthday behind him, might his strong season this season be a sign of things to come -- or an anomaly?
Among the possible indicators:
Strikeout rate
2007: 23.0 percent
2008: 20.5 percent
2009: 25.4 percent
(That doesn't tell you much.)
Walk rate
2007: 9.6 percent
2008: 12.1 percent
2009: 14.7 percent
(That's a good sign but still doesn't say much.)
Line-drive rate
2007: 18 percent
2008: 17 percent
2009: 18 percent
(Too consistent to be an indicator.)
Home runs per fly ball
2007: 9.6 percent
2008: 12.4 percent
2009: 17.3 percent
There it is: Percentage-wise, Bay saw almost twice as many fly balls sail over the fence this season than he did during his lackluster 2007 season. (Bay hit just 21 home runs and OPS'ed .746 in 2007.)
The truth is somewhere in the middle. Bay has a career HR/FB ratio of 13.4, somewhere between his extremes from 2007 and 2009 -- and somewhere pretty close to the 12.4 percent he had in 2008.
Bay hit 31 home runs and OPS'ed .895 in that 2008 season, numbers that ranked him 27th and 21st, respectively, in the major leagues. His numbers, actually, compared pretty favorably to those of Josh Hamilton in 2008:
Bay: 31 HR, .373 OBP, .522 SLG
Hamilton: 32 HR, .371 OBP, .530 SLG
Bay got a little bit lucky in 2009 -- but he didn't get all that lucky. He's still a 30-100 hitter with the ability to put up a .900 OPS.
Whether he'll still be doing that four years from now, though, is the question the Red Sox have to answer.
Two other players -- it shouldn't be hard to guess their identities -- could be considered more valuable to the Red Sox this season than Jason Bay. No player, though, personnified the ups and downs of the Red Sox season more than the slugging left fielder.
From Opening Day until June 23, a span during which Bay OPS'ed .989 and inspired "Sign Jason Bay" chants all over New England, the Red Sox went 43-27 (.614) and surged out to a five-game lead in the American League East. Over the next six weeks, though, Bay hit .177 and OPS'ed .614 as the Red Sox tumbled 6 1/2 games behind the Yankees.
But from Aug. 10 until the end of the season, Bay hit .301 and OPS'ed 1.026 as the Red Sox kept pace with the Yankees and locked up the American League's wild card.
The Red Sox knew they'd be getting a streaky hitter when they acquired Bay. Check out some of his Mays and Junes over the years:
May 2006: 1.090 OPS
June 2006: .776 OPS
May 2007: .939 OPS
June 2007: .569 OPS
May 2008: 1.077 OPS
June 2008: .831 OPS
His dip two years ago, actually, was even more epic than his dip this season:
May 2009: .978 OPS
June 2009: .701 OPS
As the Red Sox are weighing the value of signing Bay to a multiyear contract, however, it's not his streakiness that's the issue. That's the given. The issue is this: Before this season, Bay hadn't had a .900-plus OPS for an entire year since 2006. With his 31st birthday behind him, might his strong season this season be a sign of things to come -- or an anomaly?
Among the possible indicators:
Strikeout rate
2007: 23.0 percent
2008: 20.5 percent
2009: 25.4 percent
(That doesn't tell you much.)
Walk rate
2007: 9.6 percent
2008: 12.1 percent
2009: 14.7 percent
(That's a good sign but still doesn't say much.)
Line-drive rate
2007: 18 percent
2008: 17 percent
2009: 18 percent
(Too consistent to be an indicator.)
Home runs per fly ball
2007: 9.6 percent
2008: 12.4 percent
2009: 17.3 percent
There it is: Percentage-wise, Bay saw almost twice as many fly balls sail over the fence this season than he did during his lackluster 2007 season. (Bay hit just 21 home runs and OPS'ed .746 in 2007.)
The truth is somewhere in the middle. Bay has a career HR/FB ratio of 13.4, somewhere between his extremes from 2007 and 2009 -- and somewhere pretty close to the 12.4 percent he had in 2008.
Bay hit 31 home runs and OPS'ed .895 in that 2008 season, numbers that ranked him 27th and 21st, respectively, in the major leagues. His numbers, actually, compared pretty favorably to those of Josh Hamilton in 2008:
Bay: 31 HR, .373 OBP, .522 SLG
Hamilton: 32 HR, .371 OBP, .530 SLG
Bay got a little bit lucky in 2009 -- but he didn't get all that lucky. He's still a 30-100 hitter with the ability to put up a .900 OPS.
Whether he'll still be doing that four years from now, though, is the question the Red Sox have to answer.
Monday, October 12, 2009
Orders of business in the offseason
After a day or two to relax and recoup and process a stunningly swift exit to the postseason, Theo Epstein and his band of decision-makers will have to sit down and attend to the orders of business waiting for them in the offseason. This team, as constituted, never quite seemed like the World Series juggernaut of two years ago and likely would have bowed out at the hands of the Yankees had they pulled a miracle comeback a la 1999 or 2003.
(Hey, wait a second, that's what happened in 1999 and 2003.)
A few items on the agenda are more pressing than others. A few items are on the agenda require less debate than others. Among those items -- presented in some semblance of order:
1. Pick up Victor Martinez's option.
Epstein doesn't even have to discuss this one with his staff. He might already have taken care of this, one last thing to do before heading home on Sunday night. The catcher hit .336/.405/.507 in his two months with the Red Sox and is a .299/.372/.465 career hitter -- and his $7.5 million option for next season is barely half of what Jorge Posada will make.
Oh, and for those fans who want passion in their players: Not even Jonathan Papelbon sat at his locker with his uniform on, unable to get past the loss, longer than Martinez.
2. Offer Billy Wagner arbitration.
Done and done. The veteran closer almost certainly will not accept and instead will be off to Atlanta or Chicago or some other locale in need of a closer. Pass "Go." Collect two draft picks.
3. Figure out the Jason Bay situation
You can analyze it all you want -- and the analysis has already started -- but the truth of the matter is this: The Red Sox will place a value on Bay's services relative to what they expect him to be worth at the plate and in the field for the next four or five years, a value that probably will be close to the five years, $70 million for which they signed J.D. Drew. Bay then will shop around -- "I'm a little bit interested in going through the whole process, seeing what it's like and seeing what's out there," he said -- and if he gets an offer significantly better than that, he'll probably take it.
The Red Sox then will have to make a relatively aggressive offer to Matt Holliday -- whose HitTrackerOnline chart makes it look like he would love Fenway Park -- or, failing in that pursuit, probably settle for a one-year stopgap like Bobby Abreu or Mike Cameron with either Josh Reddick or Ryan Kalish taking aim at that job in 2011.
4. Make a decision on Alex Gonzalez
This isn't as important as the Jason Bay decision -- even with as much as credit as Gonzalez deserves, the Red Sox almost certainly would have made the playoffs had they stood pat at shortstop in August. But it is an easy call: He has a $6 million club option for next season, and given the uncertainty surrounding the wrist of Jed Lowrie, the Red Sox will snap that option right up. Lowrie has insisted that with a full winter of rest, his surgically repaired wrist should be fine in April -- but if that's the case, he could play shortstop part-time and third base part-time and be ready to take over the job all by himself in 2011 after he's demonstrated he's healthy.
5. Make a decision on Tim Wakefield
The knuckleballer will undergo surgery this week to repair a herniated disk in his back. The Red Sox still hold a perpetual $4 million option on his services -- and it still was a bargain this season even though Wakefield missed most of the second half.
The decision really will be up to Wakefield and how his back might feel about playing golf once a week rather than pitching once a week. If it was up to them, the Red Sox would exercise the option and go to spring training with the knuckleballer penciled in as their No. 5 starter -- a good omen if you believe in The Wakefield Theory -- because you can never have too much pitching.
(The Wakefield Theory holds that the Red Sox can tell how good they'll be in a given season simply based on where Wakefield stands in the rotation. He was the No. 2 starter in 1997. He was the No. 3 starter in 2003. He was the No. 4 starter in 2004. He was the No. 4 starter in 2007. He went into this season as the No. 4 starter but quickly became the No. 3 starter, the first sign the Red Sox might not be up to the task.)
6. Make a decision on Takashi Saito
The Red Sox signed Saito to an incentive-laden deal that ultimately will pay him $6 million this season, and that means they hold a $6 million option on him for next season.
On the one hand, that seems a little steep for a pitcher who never seemed to pitch in any high-leverage situations except as a last resort. On the other hand, the Red Sox probably can afford it -- and, again, you can never have too much pitching.
7. Make a decision on Daniel Bard
If the Red Sox were willing to try to make Jonathan Papelbon a starting pitcher even after a rookie season in which he had a 0.92 ERA in 59 relief appearances, you'd better believe they're going to explore the possibility of making Bard a starting pitcher, too. He has the build. He has the velocity -- if he throws 100 miles an hour as a reliever, he's still probably going to throw 94 or 95 as a starter. He has the even-keeled mindset.
He has the understanding, too, that he's better off as a starter than as a middle reliever.
Maybe he'll end up right back in the bullpen the way Papelbon did. But it's certainly worth it for the Red Sox to have that discussion.
8. Make a decision on Casey Kotchman
The Red Sox swapped the power-hitting Adam LaRoche for the defensive-minded Casey Kotchman because Kotchman fit better as a bench player. Kotchman, though, is still 26 years old and not all that far removed from being considered one of the top prospects in baseball. The Red Sox have a history -- remember Dave Roberts? -- of acquiring bench players for the stretch run but accomodating their wishes to be a starter elsewhere after that.
Kotchman is young and relatively cheap and carries with him an impressive glove, and that might have value in trade to one of the few teams in the market for a first baseman this winter.
(This issue has been covered in more depth here.)
9. Go check out the market
Chone Figgins. Marco Scutaro. Roy Halladay. John Lackey. Bobby Abreu. Prince Fielder. Felix Hernandez. Adrian Gonzalez.
All are names you're likely to see bandied about in Boston this winter. All are players who might be good fits with the Red Sox at the right price.
10. Restock the bench
If the Red Sox bring back Gonzalez and Kotchman, they're likely all set along the infield. But Rocco Baldelli signed a one-year contract, and it'll be interesting to see if he tests the market, even with his mitochondrial condition, to try to find a job with more regular playing time. If that's the case, the Red Sox will have to find another outfielder or two to provide some depth.
(Hey, wait a second, that's what happened in 1999 and 2003.)
A few items on the agenda are more pressing than others. A few items are on the agenda require less debate than others. Among those items -- presented in some semblance of order:
1. Pick up Victor Martinez's option.
Epstein doesn't even have to discuss this one with his staff. He might already have taken care of this, one last thing to do before heading home on Sunday night. The catcher hit .336/.405/.507 in his two months with the Red Sox and is a .299/.372/.465 career hitter -- and his $7.5 million option for next season is barely half of what Jorge Posada will make.
Oh, and for those fans who want passion in their players: Not even Jonathan Papelbon sat at his locker with his uniform on, unable to get past the loss, longer than Martinez.
2. Offer Billy Wagner arbitration.
Done and done. The veteran closer almost certainly will not accept and instead will be off to Atlanta or Chicago or some other locale in need of a closer. Pass "Go." Collect two draft picks.
3. Figure out the Jason Bay situation
You can analyze it all you want -- and the analysis has already started -- but the truth of the matter is this: The Red Sox will place a value on Bay's services relative to what they expect him to be worth at the plate and in the field for the next four or five years, a value that probably will be close to the five years, $70 million for which they signed J.D. Drew. Bay then will shop around -- "I'm a little bit interested in going through the whole process, seeing what it's like and seeing what's out there," he said -- and if he gets an offer significantly better than that, he'll probably take it.
The Red Sox then will have to make a relatively aggressive offer to Matt Holliday -- whose HitTrackerOnline chart makes it look like he would love Fenway Park -- or, failing in that pursuit, probably settle for a one-year stopgap like Bobby Abreu or Mike Cameron with either Josh Reddick or Ryan Kalish taking aim at that job in 2011.
4. Make a decision on Alex Gonzalez
This isn't as important as the Jason Bay decision -- even with as much as credit as Gonzalez deserves, the Red Sox almost certainly would have made the playoffs had they stood pat at shortstop in August. But it is an easy call: He has a $6 million club option for next season, and given the uncertainty surrounding the wrist of Jed Lowrie, the Red Sox will snap that option right up. Lowrie has insisted that with a full winter of rest, his surgically repaired wrist should be fine in April -- but if that's the case, he could play shortstop part-time and third base part-time and be ready to take over the job all by himself in 2011 after he's demonstrated he's healthy.
5. Make a decision on Tim Wakefield
The knuckleballer will undergo surgery this week to repair a herniated disk in his back. The Red Sox still hold a perpetual $4 million option on his services -- and it still was a bargain this season even though Wakefield missed most of the second half.
The decision really will be up to Wakefield and how his back might feel about playing golf once a week rather than pitching once a week. If it was up to them, the Red Sox would exercise the option and go to spring training with the knuckleballer penciled in as their No. 5 starter -- a good omen if you believe in The Wakefield Theory -- because you can never have too much pitching.
(The Wakefield Theory holds that the Red Sox can tell how good they'll be in a given season simply based on where Wakefield stands in the rotation. He was the No. 2 starter in 1997. He was the No. 3 starter in 2003. He was the No. 4 starter in 2004. He was the No. 4 starter in 2007. He went into this season as the No. 4 starter but quickly became the No. 3 starter, the first sign the Red Sox might not be up to the task.)
6. Make a decision on Takashi Saito
The Red Sox signed Saito to an incentive-laden deal that ultimately will pay him $6 million this season, and that means they hold a $6 million option on him for next season.
On the one hand, that seems a little steep for a pitcher who never seemed to pitch in any high-leverage situations except as a last resort. On the other hand, the Red Sox probably can afford it -- and, again, you can never have too much pitching.
7. Make a decision on Daniel Bard
If the Red Sox were willing to try to make Jonathan Papelbon a starting pitcher even after a rookie season in which he had a 0.92 ERA in 59 relief appearances, you'd better believe they're going to explore the possibility of making Bard a starting pitcher, too. He has the build. He has the velocity -- if he throws 100 miles an hour as a reliever, he's still probably going to throw 94 or 95 as a starter. He has the even-keeled mindset.
He has the understanding, too, that he's better off as a starter than as a middle reliever.
Maybe he'll end up right back in the bullpen the way Papelbon did. But it's certainly worth it for the Red Sox to have that discussion.
8. Make a decision on Casey Kotchman
The Red Sox swapped the power-hitting Adam LaRoche for the defensive-minded Casey Kotchman because Kotchman fit better as a bench player. Kotchman, though, is still 26 years old and not all that far removed from being considered one of the top prospects in baseball. The Red Sox have a history -- remember Dave Roberts? -- of acquiring bench players for the stretch run but accomodating their wishes to be a starter elsewhere after that.
Kotchman is young and relatively cheap and carries with him an impressive glove, and that might have value in trade to one of the few teams in the market for a first baseman this winter.
(This issue has been covered in more depth here.)
9. Go check out the market
Chone Figgins. Marco Scutaro. Roy Halladay. John Lackey. Bobby Abreu. Prince Fielder. Felix Hernandez. Adrian Gonzalez.
All are names you're likely to see bandied about in Boston this winter. All are players who might be good fits with the Red Sox at the right price.
10. Restock the bench
If the Red Sox bring back Gonzalez and Kotchman, they're likely all set along the infield. But Rocco Baldelli signed a one-year contract, and it'll be interesting to see if he tests the market, even with his mitochondrial condition, to try to find a job with more regular playing time. If that's the case, the Red Sox will have to find another outfielder or two to provide some depth.
Saturday, October 3, 2009
Red Sox defense still an issue in some ways
It's hard to pinpoint a significant weakness on this Red Sox team. The starting pitching is tremendous. The bullpen is tremendous. The lineup is deep -- and tremendous, particularly since the acquisition of Victor Martinez.
The team's biggest weakness, in a lot of ways, might be its defense. That's not to say that the defense is bad, per se, but back in mid-May, the Red Sox certainly weren't giving their pitchers much in the way of help. (The link will take you to a snapshot in mid-May of where the Red Sox stood on the Ultimate Zone Rating and Fielding Bible Plus-Minus leaderboards.)
As the season winds to a close, though, it might be a good idea to check back and see how the Red Sox fared in some of the advanced statistical measures. (We'll use UZR/150 -- averaging the numbers across 150 games -- rather than straight UZR because rate stats, as we've discussed, give a better sense than counting stats. Plus-minus is a counting stat.)
First base
UZR/150
1. Travis Ishikawa, plus-13.5
2. Casey Kotchman, 7.5
3. Kevin Youkilis, 7.1
Plus-minus
1. Albert Pujols, plus-15
t-2. Kevin Youkilis, plus-14
(In the ongoing "Kevin Youkilis ought to be the MVP runner-up behind Joe Mauer" debate, his ability to deliver terrific defense at first base and adequate defense at third base ought to be a big, big pactor.)
Second base
UZR/150
1. Ben Zobrist, plus-24.1
2. Dustin Pedroia, 9.1
(Yes, the gap is that wide.)
Plus-minus
1. Ian Kinsler and Ben Zobrist, plus-23
t-5. Dustin Pedroia, plus-12
(Pedroia might not buy into advanced defensive statistics, but they sure do reflect well upon him.)
Third base
UZR/150
1. Ryan Zimmerman, plus-16
29. Mike Lowell, minus-10.2
Plus-minus
1. Chone Figgins, plus-41
35. Mike Lowell, minus-23
(Were you expecting anything else?)
Shortstop
UZR/150
1. Jack Wilson, plus-15.2
6. Alex Gonzalez, plus-7.0
10. Nick Green, plus-5.3
Plus-minus
1. Jack Wilson, plus-32
19. Nick Green, plus-1
27. Alex Gonzalez, minus-5
(There's a discrepancy between the two interpretations of Gonzalez's defense. There's no such discrepancy below.)
Left field
UZR/150
1. Juan Rivera, plus-14.2
12. Jason Bay, minus-8.0
Plus-minus
1. Carl Crawford, plus-32
26. Jason Bay, minus-9
(That's still not good, but it's certainly better than you saw from Bay earlier in the year. The Fielding Bible has him at minus-14 on deep fly balls but plus-6 on medium-range fly balls.)
Center field
UZR/150
1. Franklin Gutierrez, plus-19.2
26. Jacoby Ellsbury, minus-12.6
Plus-minus
1. Franklin Gutierrez, plus-42
29. Jacoby Ellsbury, minus-8
(The Fielding Bible has Ellsbury at minus-12 on shallow fly balls -- which actually should seem about right to anyone who's seen the way he reads shallow fly balls off the bat.)
Right field
UZR/150
1. Ryan Sweeney, plus-20.5
8. J.D. Drew, plus-9.7
Plus-minus
1. Ichiro Suzuki, plus-22
t-10. J.D. Drew, plus-11
(As much as Drew doesn't get credit for his contributions at the plate, he really doesn't get credit for his contributions in one of the biggest right fields in baseball.)
As a team, for the season, the Red Sox rank 17th in the major leagues with an UZR/150 of minus-2.3.
It's not as abysmal as it was earlier in the season. Nick Green saw improvement as the year progressed, and replacing Julio Lugo with Alex Gonzalez certainly helped. Playing Mike Lowell at third base less has helped as well -- in infield with Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia and Casey Kotchman is actually a pretty impressive defensive infield.
But while J.D. Drew continues to be an above-average defensive outfielder, both Jason Bay and Jacoby Ellsbury continue to receive low marks. Fortunately for the Red Sox, neither this park nor this park feature the type of cavernous left-center field gap that could cause problems.
The team's biggest weakness, in a lot of ways, might be its defense. That's not to say that the defense is bad, per se, but back in mid-May, the Red Sox certainly weren't giving their pitchers much in the way of help. (The link will take you to a snapshot in mid-May of where the Red Sox stood on the Ultimate Zone Rating and Fielding Bible Plus-Minus leaderboards.)
As the season winds to a close, though, it might be a good idea to check back and see how the Red Sox fared in some of the advanced statistical measures. (We'll use UZR/150 -- averaging the numbers across 150 games -- rather than straight UZR because rate stats, as we've discussed, give a better sense than counting stats. Plus-minus is a counting stat.)
First base
UZR/150
1. Travis Ishikawa, plus-13.5
2. Casey Kotchman, 7.5
3. Kevin Youkilis, 7.1
Plus-minus
1. Albert Pujols, plus-15
t-2. Kevin Youkilis, plus-14
(In the ongoing "Kevin Youkilis ought to be the MVP runner-up behind Joe Mauer" debate, his ability to deliver terrific defense at first base and adequate defense at third base ought to be a big, big pactor.)
Second base
UZR/150
1. Ben Zobrist, plus-24.1
2. Dustin Pedroia, 9.1
(Yes, the gap is that wide.)
Plus-minus
1. Ian Kinsler and Ben Zobrist, plus-23
t-5. Dustin Pedroia, plus-12
(Pedroia might not buy into advanced defensive statistics, but they sure do reflect well upon him.)
Third base
UZR/150
1. Ryan Zimmerman, plus-16
29. Mike Lowell, minus-10.2
Plus-minus
1. Chone Figgins, plus-41
35. Mike Lowell, minus-23
(Were you expecting anything else?)
Shortstop
UZR/150
1. Jack Wilson, plus-15.2
6. Alex Gonzalez, plus-7.0
10. Nick Green, plus-5.3
Plus-minus
1. Jack Wilson, plus-32
19. Nick Green, plus-1
27. Alex Gonzalez, minus-5
(There's a discrepancy between the two interpretations of Gonzalez's defense. There's no such discrepancy below.)
Left field
UZR/150
1. Juan Rivera, plus-14.2
12. Jason Bay, minus-8.0
Plus-minus
1. Carl Crawford, plus-32
26. Jason Bay, minus-9
(That's still not good, but it's certainly better than you saw from Bay earlier in the year. The Fielding Bible has him at minus-14 on deep fly balls but plus-6 on medium-range fly balls.)
Center field
UZR/150
1. Franklin Gutierrez, plus-19.2
26. Jacoby Ellsbury, minus-12.6
Plus-minus
1. Franklin Gutierrez, plus-42
29. Jacoby Ellsbury, minus-8
(The Fielding Bible has Ellsbury at minus-12 on shallow fly balls -- which actually should seem about right to anyone who's seen the way he reads shallow fly balls off the bat.)
Right field
UZR/150
1. Ryan Sweeney, plus-20.5
8. J.D. Drew, plus-9.7
Plus-minus
1. Ichiro Suzuki, plus-22
t-10. J.D. Drew, plus-11
(As much as Drew doesn't get credit for his contributions at the plate, he really doesn't get credit for his contributions in one of the biggest right fields in baseball.)
As a team, for the season, the Red Sox rank 17th in the major leagues with an UZR/150 of minus-2.3.
It's not as abysmal as it was earlier in the season. Nick Green saw improvement as the year progressed, and replacing Julio Lugo with Alex Gonzalez certainly helped. Playing Mike Lowell at third base less has helped as well -- in infield with Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia and Casey Kotchman is actually a pretty impressive defensive infield.
But while J.D. Drew continues to be an above-average defensive outfielder, both Jason Bay and Jacoby Ellsbury continue to receive low marks. Fortunately for the Red Sox, neither this park nor this park feature the type of cavernous left-center field gap that could cause problems.
Saturday, September 12, 2009
Jason Bay could hit home runs in Seattle
(Rain delays make writers think about all sorts of strange things.)
As Red Sox left fielder Jason Bay nears free agency, the possible suitors for his services will begin to line up. The Red Sox, of course, will make an effort to retain him. The Yankees, too, will make a play for him given the vacancy they'll have in left field.
One dark horse, however, could be the Seattle Mariners. Not only does Bay maintain an offseason home in the Seattle area, but the Mariners are the type of franchise that could make a lucrative offer for the outfielder's services. On top of that, the Mariners have a spectacular center fielder in Franklin Gutierrez who might mitigate Bay's defensive shortcomings.
The only question, really, is this: Would Seattle's Safeco Field be somewhere Bay would want to hit for the next six or seven seasons of his career?
Safeco Field has a reputation as a pitchers' park -- thanks in large part to its deep alley in left-center field. Ken Griffey Jr. reportedly asked out of Seattle back in 1999 and 2000 in large part because he didn't want to have to hit in the Mariners' new park.
Bay might share the same concerns -- but they'd be unfounded.
Here's where Bay's home runs have landed this season -- adjusted for wind, humidity and other outside factors:
Here's where all the home runs hit at Safeco Field this season have landed:
As you can see, it's less than 350 feet down the left-field line -- 331 feet, to be exact -- but gets close to 400 feet out in left-center field.
Bay, however, has demonstrated often this season that he's capable of hitting the ball 400 feet to left-center field. It's already 380 feet to the spot at Fenway Park where the Green Monster meets the center-field fence, and Bay has cleared the Green Monster at that spot a couple of times this season.
Bay also played close to five seasons in Pittsburgh, another graveyard for righthanded hitters and lefthanded opposite-field hitters. Bay, as strong a power hitter as there is in the major leagues, hit 11 of his career-best 13 home runs at PNC Park in 2006 to left field or to left-center field:
(Click on the photo for a larger view.)
Bay will have plenty of options when he files for free agency in November. Safeco Field's deep alley in left-center field shouldn't eliminate Seattle as one of those options.
As Red Sox left fielder Jason Bay nears free agency, the possible suitors for his services will begin to line up. The Red Sox, of course, will make an effort to retain him. The Yankees, too, will make a play for him given the vacancy they'll have in left field.
One dark horse, however, could be the Seattle Mariners. Not only does Bay maintain an offseason home in the Seattle area, but the Mariners are the type of franchise that could make a lucrative offer for the outfielder's services. On top of that, the Mariners have a spectacular center fielder in Franklin Gutierrez who might mitigate Bay's defensive shortcomings.
The only question, really, is this: Would Seattle's Safeco Field be somewhere Bay would want to hit for the next six or seven seasons of his career?
Safeco Field has a reputation as a pitchers' park -- thanks in large part to its deep alley in left-center field. Ken Griffey Jr. reportedly asked out of Seattle back in 1999 and 2000 in large part because he didn't want to have to hit in the Mariners' new park.
Bay might share the same concerns -- but they'd be unfounded.
Here's where Bay's home runs have landed this season -- adjusted for wind, humidity and other outside factors:
Here's where all the home runs hit at Safeco Field this season have landed:
As you can see, it's less than 350 feet down the left-field line -- 331 feet, to be exact -- but gets close to 400 feet out in left-center field.
Bay, however, has demonstrated often this season that he's capable of hitting the ball 400 feet to left-center field. It's already 380 feet to the spot at Fenway Park where the Green Monster meets the center-field fence, and Bay has cleared the Green Monster at that spot a couple of times this season.
Bay also played close to five seasons in Pittsburgh, another graveyard for righthanded hitters and lefthanded opposite-field hitters. Bay, as strong a power hitter as there is in the major leagues, hit 11 of his career-best 13 home runs at PNC Park in 2006 to left field or to left-center field:
(Click on the photo for a larger view.)
Bay will have plenty of options when he files for free agency in November. Safeco Field's deep alley in left-center field shouldn't eliminate Seattle as one of those options.
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
Jason Bay and J.D. Drew
Probably because there's nothing else to talk about -- it's not as if Josh Beckett is pitching tonight and the Patriots are less than a week away from their final roster cut-down -- sports talk radio hosts today have decided, once again, to hammer J.D. Drew.
(Yes, I know: It's better to ignore it. Sometimes, though, it gets absurd.)
Paul Byrd had an awfully nice-looking line on Sunday: Six shutout innings in his first start in the major leagues in almost a year. That line doesn't look as nice, though, if the fly ball Jose Bautista hit into the right-field corner falls for a hit -- a fly ball hauled in on the run by J.D. Drew.
Many fans remember the lunging catch Drew made in extra innings at Yankee Stadium, a tremendous snag that would have become legendary had the Red Sox ended up winning the game. But that's not the only above-average defensive play Drew has made this season.
Here's the Fielding Bible's plus-minus leaderboard for right fielders:
1. Ichiro Suzuki, plus-22
t-2. Hunter Pence and Ryan Church, plus-16
t-4. Nelson Cruz and J.D. Drew, plus-15
t-6. Nick Swisher and Kosuke Fukudome, plus-13
That means Drew has made 15 plays this season that the average right fielder wouldn't make. Most of those plays have been in the deepest part of the ballpark -- he's plus-14 going back on the ball.
Compare that to, to pick a name at random, Jason Bay.
(OK, it's not random.)
Bay plays the game on an even keel. He smiles at jokes in the locker room and laughs with his buddies, but he doesn't express himself much on the field. Whether he hits a home run or strikes out -- something he does more than anyone on the team -- he has the same expression of stoicism on his face. He doesn't throw his bat when he pops up. He doesn't point to the sky when he hits a double. He answers reporters' questions thoughtfully and makes himself available to the media often without appearing to draw attention to himself.
In other words, personality-wise, he's Drew without the drawl.
Bay hasn't been an above-average defensive left fielder for years. He was a minus-11 two years ago and a minus-7 last year, and he's a minus-10 this year. He's particularly bad going back on the ball -- he's minus-16 going back on the ball this season as compared to plus-3 in each of the past two seasons.
That's right: He plays his home games in the smallest left field in the major leagues, and yet he's minus-16 on deep fly balls.
OK, so, defensively, Drew has a leg up on Bay.
At the plate, well, here's how the team stacks up in terms of OPS:
1. Kevin Youkilis, .980
2. Jason Bay, .915
3. J.D. Drew, .879
4. Mike Lowell, .855
5. Dustin Pedroia, .814
Bay has better numbers than Drew. He hits for more power. But would you ever have guessed that the gap between Youkilis and Bay is larger -- much larger, in fact -- than the gap between Bay and Drew? Would you ever have guessed that Drew has a higher OPS this season than Evan Longoria (.859), Ichiro Suzuki (.855), Victor Martinez (.844), Ian Kinsler (.842) and Nick Markakis (.836)?
Drew catches hit, it seems, mostly for his contract. He signed a five-year, $70 million deal that makes him the highest-paid player on the Red Sox.
But while Bay will earn just $7.5 million this season, he'll hit the free-agent market this winter with his eyes on a deal worth $15 or $16 million annually. If Drew can get $14 million, he and his camp will rationalize, why shouldn't he get $15 million or more?
Here's why: Drew, for all the grief he gets in Boston, is the better player.
(Yes, I know: It's better to ignore it. Sometimes, though, it gets absurd.)
Paul Byrd had an awfully nice-looking line on Sunday: Six shutout innings in his first start in the major leagues in almost a year. That line doesn't look as nice, though, if the fly ball Jose Bautista hit into the right-field corner falls for a hit -- a fly ball hauled in on the run by J.D. Drew.
Many fans remember the lunging catch Drew made in extra innings at Yankee Stadium, a tremendous snag that would have become legendary had the Red Sox ended up winning the game. But that's not the only above-average defensive play Drew has made this season.
Here's the Fielding Bible's plus-minus leaderboard for right fielders:
1. Ichiro Suzuki, plus-22
t-2. Hunter Pence and Ryan Church, plus-16
t-4. Nelson Cruz and J.D. Drew, plus-15
t-6. Nick Swisher and Kosuke Fukudome, plus-13
That means Drew has made 15 plays this season that the average right fielder wouldn't make. Most of those plays have been in the deepest part of the ballpark -- he's plus-14 going back on the ball.
Compare that to, to pick a name at random, Jason Bay.
(OK, it's not random.)
Bay plays the game on an even keel. He smiles at jokes in the locker room and laughs with his buddies, but he doesn't express himself much on the field. Whether he hits a home run or strikes out -- something he does more than anyone on the team -- he has the same expression of stoicism on his face. He doesn't throw his bat when he pops up. He doesn't point to the sky when he hits a double. He answers reporters' questions thoughtfully and makes himself available to the media often without appearing to draw attention to himself.
In other words, personality-wise, he's Drew without the drawl.
Bay hasn't been an above-average defensive left fielder for years. He was a minus-11 two years ago and a minus-7 last year, and he's a minus-10 this year. He's particularly bad going back on the ball -- he's minus-16 going back on the ball this season as compared to plus-3 in each of the past two seasons.
That's right: He plays his home games in the smallest left field in the major leagues, and yet he's minus-16 on deep fly balls.
OK, so, defensively, Drew has a leg up on Bay.
At the plate, well, here's how the team stacks up in terms of OPS:
1. Kevin Youkilis, .980
2. Jason Bay, .915
3. J.D. Drew, .879
4. Mike Lowell, .855
5. Dustin Pedroia, .814
Bay has better numbers than Drew. He hits for more power. But would you ever have guessed that the gap between Youkilis and Bay is larger -- much larger, in fact -- than the gap between Bay and Drew? Would you ever have guessed that Drew has a higher OPS this season than Evan Longoria (.859), Ichiro Suzuki (.855), Victor Martinez (.844), Ian Kinsler (.842) and Nick Markakis (.836)?
Drew catches hit, it seems, mostly for his contract. He signed a five-year, $70 million deal that makes him the highest-paid player on the Red Sox.
But while Bay will earn just $7.5 million this season, he'll hit the free-agent market this winter with his eyes on a deal worth $15 or $16 million annually. If Drew can get $14 million, he and his camp will rationalize, why shouldn't he get $15 million or more?
Here's why: Drew, for all the grief he gets in Boston, is the better player.
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
Red Sox bats got hot in August
When you look at the way the Red Sox played in July and the way they played in August, it's easy to start by muttering something about Brad Penny. The Red Sox starting rotation did, after all, post a 5.01 ERA in August -- even worse than its mark of 4.54 in July.
But the Red Sox always have been a team equipped to win games 10-9 as easily as 2-1, and that's why they've created some separation in the wild-card race even though their ace has pitched like a jack. (Does that work? No? Never mind.)
Pitching isn't everything. Some of the key hitters in the Red Sox lineup have come alive at exactly the right time:
The Red Sox in July
Mike Lowell, 1.012 OPS (in 36 at-bats)
Dustin Pedroia, .902
David Ortiz, .845
Kevin Youkilis, .822
Jacoby Ellsbury, .810
Jason Varitek, .736
Jason Bay, .689
J.D. Drew, .677
Nick Green, .472
Victor Martinez, N/A (.530 with Cleveland)
Alex Gonzalez, N/A (.173 in 21 at-bats with Cincinnati)
As a point of reference because OPS is still a stat we're all getting used to: The average American League hitter has an OPS of .761. That means two of the key hitters in the Red Sox lineup were well below average in July, and only one everyday player had an OPS over .850
The Red Sox in August
Jason Bay, 1.097
J.D. Drew, 1.093
Kevin Youkilis, .982
Mike Lowell, .963
Dustin Pedroia, .926
Victor Martinez, .877
David Ortiz, .825
Alez Gonzalez, .815
Jacoby Ellsbury, .748
Nick Green, .576
Jason Varitek, .483
It's not your imagination: Bay and Drew are turning it on at exactly the right time. Bay has hit nine home runs this month and slugged .552 during the team's 10-game homestand, and Drew has slugged exactly 1.000 since Terry Francona dropped him into the eighth spot in the batting order for the first time back on Aug. 20.
As a team, the Red Sox's OPS has jumped from .747 in July to .851 in August -- the team's highest in any month this season. Josh Beckett has a 9,82 ERA in his last three starts, but the Red Sox have won three of those starts.
The Texas Rangers, meanwhile, haven't OPS'ed higher than .800 as a team since May. Imagine that: The Red Sox are fending off the Rangers by outhitting them.
But the Red Sox always have been a team equipped to win games 10-9 as easily as 2-1, and that's why they've created some separation in the wild-card race even though their ace has pitched like a jack. (Does that work? No? Never mind.)
Pitching isn't everything. Some of the key hitters in the Red Sox lineup have come alive at exactly the right time:
The Red Sox in July
Mike Lowell, 1.012 OPS (in 36 at-bats)
Dustin Pedroia, .902
David Ortiz, .845
Kevin Youkilis, .822
Jacoby Ellsbury, .810
Jason Varitek, .736
Jason Bay, .689
J.D. Drew, .677
Nick Green, .472
Victor Martinez, N/A (.530 with Cleveland)
Alex Gonzalez, N/A (.173 in 21 at-bats with Cincinnati)
As a point of reference because OPS is still a stat we're all getting used to: The average American League hitter has an OPS of .761. That means two of the key hitters in the Red Sox lineup were well below average in July, and only one everyday player had an OPS over .850
The Red Sox in August
Jason Bay, 1.097
J.D. Drew, 1.093
Kevin Youkilis, .982
Mike Lowell, .963
Dustin Pedroia, .926
Victor Martinez, .877
David Ortiz, .825
Alez Gonzalez, .815
Jacoby Ellsbury, .748
Nick Green, .576
Jason Varitek, .483
It's not your imagination: Bay and Drew are turning it on at exactly the right time. Bay has hit nine home runs this month and slugged .552 during the team's 10-game homestand, and Drew has slugged exactly 1.000 since Terry Francona dropped him into the eighth spot in the batting order for the first time back on Aug. 20.
As a team, the Red Sox's OPS has jumped from .747 in July to .851 in August -- the team's highest in any month this season. Josh Beckett has a 9,82 ERA in his last three starts, but the Red Sox have won three of those starts.
The Texas Rangers, meanwhile, haven't OPS'ed higher than .800 as a team since May. Imagine that: The Red Sox are fending off the Rangers by outhitting them.
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Lester's luck turns as Red Sox rally
Jon Lester now has nine no-decisions this season -- including five in his last six starts. He won't remember many of them much more fondly this season than he will the no-decision he recorded in perhaps the most entertaining Red Sox game of the season.
A short summary: Lester lost his win when a nasty curveball took a bad hop in the dirt. Hideki Okajima tried to basket-catch a pop-up and dropped it -- and he then missed a return throw from the catcher to allow the runner to move to second base. Victor Martinez drove in Nick Green in the seventh and eighth innings, a result even more unexpected given that both players spent the first six innings on the bench. Okajima pitched himself into a jam, and Manny Delcarmen pitched himself out of one.
Jason Bay, who had struck out looking twice already on offspeed pitches, hit a home run on an 0-2 offspeed pitch. Jonathan Papelbon met with the media about Billy Wagner in the afternoon and absolutely blew away the White Sox in the evening. Oh, and Jacoby Ellsbury broke the franchise record for stolen bases on the first pitch to Dustin Pedroia in the bottom of the third.
That's the short summary. Here's the long summary.
1. Ellsbury. The 25-year-old speed demon had gone four games without a left before stealing his team-record-tying 54th stolen base of the season on Friday against the Yankees. Tommy Harper was in the house on Sunday, presumably in hopes Ellsbury would break the record that night. It didn't happen.
"Maybe he was hoping I'd break it -- or not break it," Ellsbury said with a smirk. "He was here and he wished me good luck, so I appreciated that."
But Ellsbury didn't steal a record that night -- he went 0-for-5, in fact, and never even got to first base. He then doubled and tripled on Monday but went without a stolen base.
He didn't wait long on Tuesday, though. He jolted a ground-rule double into the Red Sox bullpen and took off on the first pitch Freddy Garcia threw to second baseman Dustin Pedroia. But it didn't stop there. When Pedroia went out to get a slider away and rolled it to first base, Ellsbury cruised home with the game's first run.
"When I go, there's usually a purpose behind it," he said. "I'm not just out there to steal bases. If I was out therej ust to steal bases, I know I could steal quite a few more. But I want to steal at a high success rate to help the team win. That's the most important thing."
2. Lester. The snakebit lefty now has a 2.97 ERA in his last six starts -- and one measly decision to show for it. He fought through fluky adversity in April but has seen his bad luck return in August -- twice has he struck out double-digit batters in six innings, allowing three or fewer runs in the process, and still not earn himself a win.
"It's kind of getting old sometimes," he said. "But you've got to keep plugging away and keep working. The main thing is that we won the ballgame. That's why I'll go home and sleep good tonight."
He didn't look like he was going to sleep good when he left the field in the seventh inning.
He'd gone the whole game without his best stuff, fighting at times to find pitches that would work for him. He'd hit 96 miles an hour in the eighth inning in Toronto last week but saw his velocity track downward as his pitch count climbed from 50 to 75 to 100.
"There are innings when you go out there and you feel really good," he said, "and other innings where you're just battling to find a rhythm. That's what's tough about starting pitching. Sometimes, form inning to inning, you don't know what you have, and sometimes, from game to game, you don't know what you have. You just have to make adjustments from pitch to pitch. At times I did that, and at times I didn't. ... The nice thing is that the times I didn't feel too good about my mechanics or location or what we were trying to do, I was able to minimize the damage and keep the team in the ballgame."
He got himself into a little bit of a jam in the seventh when he allowed a first-pitch single to Paul Konerko and folloewd with a four-pitch walk to Jermaine Dye. A.J. Pierzynski then bunted the runners to second and third. When Alex Rios hit a line drive to J.D. Drew in right field that failed to score Konerko, it looked as though he was about to escape unscathed -- and with the lead.
He threw three straight curveballs to Alexei Ramirez: A called strike at the knees, a nasty swinging strike at the knees and a nastier swinging strike in the dirt. But the third pitch somehow ricocheted off the left edge of the plate and over the right shoulder of catcher Jason Varitek and rolled all the way to the backstop, allowing Ramirez to reach first and Konerko to score from third.
"It hit the right part of the plate with the wrong spin and got over his head," Lester said. "Nine times out of 10, that ball stays in front of the plate and we get out of the inning."
He then caught a little too much of the plate with a sharp cut fastball -- but appeared to catch a break when Nix hit the ball straight at Mike Lowell at third base. The ball hit Lowell square in the glove -- and it bounced away for a run-scoring infield single.
"You couldn't hit 100 fungoes to Mike Lowell and have that exact same result where you hit a ball out of his gloves," Bay said.
An inning-ending strikeout had given way to a two-run rally and a 3-2 White Sox lead and had knocked Lester from the game. The lefty stalked into the dugout and down the stairs and into the clubhouse, a pat on the back from John Farrell his only solace as he stormed away from what looked to be another defeat snatched from the jaws of victory.
3. Okajima. On a day the Red Sox acquired a flame-throwing lefty in Billy Wagner, the incumbent finesse lefty demonstrated once again why he's been one of the best middle relievers in baseball over the last three seasons. He inherited Lester's jam and promptly saw the White Sox load the bases when Scott Podsednik rolled a ground ball into no-man's land between first base and the pitcher's mound.
But the 33-year-old from Japan came back with his best Wagner impression, throwing three splitfingered fastballs to Gordon Beckham before blowing an 88-mile-an-hour fastball at the eyes -- OK, easing an 88-mile-an-hour fastball at the eyes -- past him to end the inning.
4. Martinez. You'd have to guess that Terry Francona doesn't often exchange late-night text messages with his catcher. Last night, though, Francona got a message from Martinez around 1:15 a.m. that said, "Let me play."
"I finally wrote back," Francona said after the game, "and I said, 'Leave me alone. You'll come in and pinch-hit and get the game-winning hit.' He said, 'OK. Good night.'"
It didn't quite go that way. But it still was a big spot when Francona pinch-hit Martinez for Alex Gonzalez with one out in the seventh inning and the Red Sox still trailing by a 3-2 score. He sent shortstop Nick Green to run for Jason Varitek at the same time, effectively a double-switch with his shortstop and his catcher.
Martinez didn't wait long, jumping on a Matt Thornton fastball in the middle of the plate and ripping it into left field to score Green from second with the tying run. Martinez knew what to expect from Thornton, having faced him 19 times in his days with the Cleveland Indians, and he didn't expect the 6-foot-6 lefty to mess around at all.
"I just went up there and looked for his strength," Martinez said. "It's no secret. Everybody knows he's got a great fastball. I went up there to go get one and put a good swing on the ball."
Tie game.
5. Delcarmen. Carlos Quentin popped the second pitch he saw in the eighth inning over the pitcher's mound, a pop-up just high enough to make Okajima hesitate rather than calling for it himself. The result was a botched basket catch on the back of the mound to allow the runner to reach. (The play first was ruled an error but later changed to a hit.)
"It's got to be Oki's ball because of the height," Francona said. "It was like somebody punched me in the stomach -- and before I could look even look up, I felt like I got hit with the other hand."
The other hand? That came when a return throw from Martinez to Okajima missed the pitcher's outstretched glove and rolled all the way into center field, allowing Quentin to scramble to second base and threatening to turn a tie game back into a White Sox win.
Francona stuck with Okajima long enough to let him induce a pop fly to Dye and strike out Pierzynski, the last lefty in the White Sox lineup for a little while. But he then went to Delcarmen with two outs and runners on first and third and Rios striding to the plate.
Delcarmen found himself on the periphery of controversy this week after the report that both he and Jonathan Papelbon weren't overly enthusiastic about the then-rumored move for Wagner. He also hasn't exactly been the most lights-out pitcher in the Red Sox bullpen and has seen himself passed by both Daniel Bard and Ramon Ramirez in terms of the faith Francona has in him in big spots. Part of the reason is the fact that he's averaging almost a walk every other inning he pitches. When he comes into a game with runners on base, he often puts more runners on base.
True to form, he missed with back-to-back fastballs to Rios.
(Ozzie Guillen made an interesting call, by the way, in not pinch-hitting Jim Thome for Rios. Rios has hit lefties and righties equally in his career, but Thome has crushed righties to the tune of a 1.045 OPS in his career. It seemed logical that once Francona called for Delcarmen, Guillen would send up Thome. But Delcarmen has a goofy reverse split: He's a righthanded pitcher, but righties have hit .260 off him in his career while lefties have hit just .216.)
The third pitch Delcarmen threw was a 92-mile-an-hour fastball at the letters, and Rios popped it into shallow center field. Pedroia caught it for the third out.
6. Bay. Not much has been consistent about Bay's season. He began the season on a tear that turned "Sign Bay!" into a "Don't Treat On Me"-esque New England anthem, but his OPS numbers dwindled from there -- from 1.123 in April to .978 to .701 to .689 in a miserable July in which he hit just one home run.
But things have taken a turn for the better in August. He went into Tuesday's game with seven home runs for the month, and that meant he was feeling a little better in the eighth inning even though he'd already taken two called third strikes against Garcia in the early going.
"It was a constant battle," he said. "You go up there looking for a pitch you can drive, and I had some early on that I didn't swing at. It's kind of nice to do it when it matters."
It mattered in the bottom of the eighth with the game still tied at 3. David Ortiz had turned on a Thornton curveball and put a nice stroke on the ball and hit a line drive almost to the warning track in right field before Dye hauled it in. Bay then came up and took a called strike on a curveball and fouled off a slider to put himself right into the hole he didn't want to be in.
"The problem is, when I look breaking ball, half the time, that's when I swing at it when it bounces because you're looking for it and you get it," he said. "At that point, he had thrown me two (breaking balls), but it's still in the back of your mind that he throws 96 miles an hour. You're just basically looking for a strike."
Thornton hung a splitter, a terrible two-strike pitch right of the middle of the plate, and Bay crushed it into the Green Monster seats.
"It's easier said than done, just to react, but that's basically what it was," he said.
Green, Martinez and Ellsbury followed with hits to score two more runs and push the score to 6-3, a more than manageable margin for a dominant-looking Papelbon in the ninth.
Postscript: Bay's night ended with, of all things, a drug test. He took longer than usual to emerge into the locker room because, he said, "I couldn't go." Two Red Sox players were tested -- Bay and, of course, Ellsbury.
Did they find anything on the record-breaking base-stealer?
"I'll let you know," he said with a grin.
A short summary: Lester lost his win when a nasty curveball took a bad hop in the dirt. Hideki Okajima tried to basket-catch a pop-up and dropped it -- and he then missed a return throw from the catcher to allow the runner to move to second base. Victor Martinez drove in Nick Green in the seventh and eighth innings, a result even more unexpected given that both players spent the first six innings on the bench. Okajima pitched himself into a jam, and Manny Delcarmen pitched himself out of one.
Jason Bay, who had struck out looking twice already on offspeed pitches, hit a home run on an 0-2 offspeed pitch. Jonathan Papelbon met with the media about Billy Wagner in the afternoon and absolutely blew away the White Sox in the evening. Oh, and Jacoby Ellsbury broke the franchise record for stolen bases on the first pitch to Dustin Pedroia in the bottom of the third.
That's the short summary. Here's the long summary.
1. Ellsbury. The 25-year-old speed demon had gone four games without a left before stealing his team-record-tying 54th stolen base of the season on Friday against the Yankees. Tommy Harper was in the house on Sunday, presumably in hopes Ellsbury would break the record that night. It didn't happen.
"Maybe he was hoping I'd break it -- or not break it," Ellsbury said with a smirk. "He was here and he wished me good luck, so I appreciated that."
But Ellsbury didn't steal a record that night -- he went 0-for-5, in fact, and never even got to first base. He then doubled and tripled on Monday but went without a stolen base.
He didn't wait long on Tuesday, though. He jolted a ground-rule double into the Red Sox bullpen and took off on the first pitch Freddy Garcia threw to second baseman Dustin Pedroia. But it didn't stop there. When Pedroia went out to get a slider away and rolled it to first base, Ellsbury cruised home with the game's first run.
"When I go, there's usually a purpose behind it," he said. "I'm not just out there to steal bases. If I was out therej ust to steal bases, I know I could steal quite a few more. But I want to steal at a high success rate to help the team win. That's the most important thing."
2. Lester. The snakebit lefty now has a 2.97 ERA in his last six starts -- and one measly decision to show for it. He fought through fluky adversity in April but has seen his bad luck return in August -- twice has he struck out double-digit batters in six innings, allowing three or fewer runs in the process, and still not earn himself a win.
"It's kind of getting old sometimes," he said. "But you've got to keep plugging away and keep working. The main thing is that we won the ballgame. That's why I'll go home and sleep good tonight."
He didn't look like he was going to sleep good when he left the field in the seventh inning.
He'd gone the whole game without his best stuff, fighting at times to find pitches that would work for him. He'd hit 96 miles an hour in the eighth inning in Toronto last week but saw his velocity track downward as his pitch count climbed from 50 to 75 to 100.
"There are innings when you go out there and you feel really good," he said, "and other innings where you're just battling to find a rhythm. That's what's tough about starting pitching. Sometimes, form inning to inning, you don't know what you have, and sometimes, from game to game, you don't know what you have. You just have to make adjustments from pitch to pitch. At times I did that, and at times I didn't. ... The nice thing is that the times I didn't feel too good about my mechanics or location or what we were trying to do, I was able to minimize the damage and keep the team in the ballgame."
He got himself into a little bit of a jam in the seventh when he allowed a first-pitch single to Paul Konerko and folloewd with a four-pitch walk to Jermaine Dye. A.J. Pierzynski then bunted the runners to second and third. When Alex Rios hit a line drive to J.D. Drew in right field that failed to score Konerko, it looked as though he was about to escape unscathed -- and with the lead.
He threw three straight curveballs to Alexei Ramirez: A called strike at the knees, a nasty swinging strike at the knees and a nastier swinging strike in the dirt. But the third pitch somehow ricocheted off the left edge of the plate and over the right shoulder of catcher Jason Varitek and rolled all the way to the backstop, allowing Ramirez to reach first and Konerko to score from third.
"It hit the right part of the plate with the wrong spin and got over his head," Lester said. "Nine times out of 10, that ball stays in front of the plate and we get out of the inning."
He then caught a little too much of the plate with a sharp cut fastball -- but appeared to catch a break when Nix hit the ball straight at Mike Lowell at third base. The ball hit Lowell square in the glove -- and it bounced away for a run-scoring infield single.
"You couldn't hit 100 fungoes to Mike Lowell and have that exact same result where you hit a ball out of his gloves," Bay said.
An inning-ending strikeout had given way to a two-run rally and a 3-2 White Sox lead and had knocked Lester from the game. The lefty stalked into the dugout and down the stairs and into the clubhouse, a pat on the back from John Farrell his only solace as he stormed away from what looked to be another defeat snatched from the jaws of victory.
3. Okajima. On a day the Red Sox acquired a flame-throwing lefty in Billy Wagner, the incumbent finesse lefty demonstrated once again why he's been one of the best middle relievers in baseball over the last three seasons. He inherited Lester's jam and promptly saw the White Sox load the bases when Scott Podsednik rolled a ground ball into no-man's land between first base and the pitcher's mound.
But the 33-year-old from Japan came back with his best Wagner impression, throwing three splitfingered fastballs to Gordon Beckham before blowing an 88-mile-an-hour fastball at the eyes -- OK, easing an 88-mile-an-hour fastball at the eyes -- past him to end the inning.
4. Martinez. You'd have to guess that Terry Francona doesn't often exchange late-night text messages with his catcher. Last night, though, Francona got a message from Martinez around 1:15 a.m. that said, "Let me play."
"I finally wrote back," Francona said after the game, "and I said, 'Leave me alone. You'll come in and pinch-hit and get the game-winning hit.' He said, 'OK. Good night.'"
It didn't quite go that way. But it still was a big spot when Francona pinch-hit Martinez for Alex Gonzalez with one out in the seventh inning and the Red Sox still trailing by a 3-2 score. He sent shortstop Nick Green to run for Jason Varitek at the same time, effectively a double-switch with his shortstop and his catcher.
Martinez didn't wait long, jumping on a Matt Thornton fastball in the middle of the plate and ripping it into left field to score Green from second with the tying run. Martinez knew what to expect from Thornton, having faced him 19 times in his days with the Cleveland Indians, and he didn't expect the 6-foot-6 lefty to mess around at all.
"I just went up there and looked for his strength," Martinez said. "It's no secret. Everybody knows he's got a great fastball. I went up there to go get one and put a good swing on the ball."
Tie game.
5. Delcarmen. Carlos Quentin popped the second pitch he saw in the eighth inning over the pitcher's mound, a pop-up just high enough to make Okajima hesitate rather than calling for it himself. The result was a botched basket catch on the back of the mound to allow the runner to reach. (The play first was ruled an error but later changed to a hit.)
"It's got to be Oki's ball because of the height," Francona said. "It was like somebody punched me in the stomach -- and before I could look even look up, I felt like I got hit with the other hand."
The other hand? That came when a return throw from Martinez to Okajima missed the pitcher's outstretched glove and rolled all the way into center field, allowing Quentin to scramble to second base and threatening to turn a tie game back into a White Sox win.
Francona stuck with Okajima long enough to let him induce a pop fly to Dye and strike out Pierzynski, the last lefty in the White Sox lineup for a little while. But he then went to Delcarmen with two outs and runners on first and third and Rios striding to the plate.
Delcarmen found himself on the periphery of controversy this week after the report that both he and Jonathan Papelbon weren't overly enthusiastic about the then-rumored move for Wagner. He also hasn't exactly been the most lights-out pitcher in the Red Sox bullpen and has seen himself passed by both Daniel Bard and Ramon Ramirez in terms of the faith Francona has in him in big spots. Part of the reason is the fact that he's averaging almost a walk every other inning he pitches. When he comes into a game with runners on base, he often puts more runners on base.
True to form, he missed with back-to-back fastballs to Rios.
(Ozzie Guillen made an interesting call, by the way, in not pinch-hitting Jim Thome for Rios. Rios has hit lefties and righties equally in his career, but Thome has crushed righties to the tune of a 1.045 OPS in his career. It seemed logical that once Francona called for Delcarmen, Guillen would send up Thome. But Delcarmen has a goofy reverse split: He's a righthanded pitcher, but righties have hit .260 off him in his career while lefties have hit just .216.)
The third pitch Delcarmen threw was a 92-mile-an-hour fastball at the letters, and Rios popped it into shallow center field. Pedroia caught it for the third out.
6. Bay. Not much has been consistent about Bay's season. He began the season on a tear that turned "Sign Bay!" into a "Don't Treat On Me"-esque New England anthem, but his OPS numbers dwindled from there -- from 1.123 in April to .978 to .701 to .689 in a miserable July in which he hit just one home run.
But things have taken a turn for the better in August. He went into Tuesday's game with seven home runs for the month, and that meant he was feeling a little better in the eighth inning even though he'd already taken two called third strikes against Garcia in the early going.
"It was a constant battle," he said. "You go up there looking for a pitch you can drive, and I had some early on that I didn't swing at. It's kind of nice to do it when it matters."
It mattered in the bottom of the eighth with the game still tied at 3. David Ortiz had turned on a Thornton curveball and put a nice stroke on the ball and hit a line drive almost to the warning track in right field before Dye hauled it in. Bay then came up and took a called strike on a curveball and fouled off a slider to put himself right into the hole he didn't want to be in.
"The problem is, when I look breaking ball, half the time, that's when I swing at it when it bounces because you're looking for it and you get it," he said. "At that point, he had thrown me two (breaking balls), but it's still in the back of your mind that he throws 96 miles an hour. You're just basically looking for a strike."
Thornton hung a splitter, a terrible two-strike pitch right of the middle of the plate, and Bay crushed it into the Green Monster seats.
"It's easier said than done, just to react, but that's basically what it was," he said.
Green, Martinez and Ellsbury followed with hits to score two more runs and push the score to 6-3, a more than manageable margin for a dominant-looking Papelbon in the ninth.
Postscript: Bay's night ended with, of all things, a drug test. He took longer than usual to emerge into the locker room because, he said, "I couldn't go." Two Red Sox players were tested -- Bay and, of course, Ellsbury.
Did they find anything on the record-breaking base-stealer?
"I'll let you know," he said with a grin.
Monday, August 24, 2009
Red Sox still leading "another race"
It wasn't what Jason Bay said about the Red Sox's chances to catch the Yankees in the East. It was what he didn't say.
"There's still time left," said Bay with just a little bit of bite to his voice. "But if that doesn't happen, what goes unnoticed around here is that we are in first place for the other remaining playoff spot. It obviously goes unnoticed when you're playing New York, and people want to make a huge deal out of it. But we won the wild card last year and made it to Game 7 of the ALCS. It's getting a little further away and we're running out of time, no question, and you've got to be realistic. But, at the same time, the goal is to get into the playoffs. Whatever way you do that, at least you're in."
Yes, the "other remaining playoff spot." Here's how the standings break down as of Monday morning:
1. Boston, 70-53
2. Texas, 69-54
3. Tampa Bay, 67-56
t-4. Chicago, 63-61
t-4. Seattle, 63-61
The Red Sox do have pitching -- thanks in large part to the steps forward taken by Clay Buchholz and Junichi Tazawa, now pretty much the No. 3 and No. 4 starters in the Red Sox rotation. They might even have pitching on the way if a deal for Billy Wagner is consummated in the next 24 hours or so. (That seems unlikely now, according to reports, but there's still time.)
The Red Sox also have a ferocious lineup, and if you're still worried about their .264 lineup since the All-Star break, consider this: Of the first 17 hitters that stepped to the plate against CC Sabathia on Sunday night, every single one either saw at least four pitches or wound up with a hit -- or both. The only first-pitch hackers were Mike Lowell, who doubled off the Green Monster, and Rocco Baldelli, who shot a ground ball up the middle for a run-scoring single.
Bay then swung at the first pitch in the bottom of the fourth and blooped a single over second base. Lowell and Baldelli followed with seven- and eight-pitch at-bats, respectively.
(Here's a fun stat for you: The Red Sox have the highest slugging percentage -- .683 -- of any American League team when swinging at the first pitch.)
Oh, and the team's .793 OPS in the second half is third-best in the American League -- behind only the Yankees and the Angels.
Things didn't work out against Sabathia, a horse who has thrown more pitches (2,859) than any other pitcher in the American League this season. But it's going to work quite a bit against some of the teams the Red Sox will face down the stretch.
"What needs maybe to be focused on is that we're a game up on the Rangers for the other playoff spot," Bay said. "I know a ton gets made around here about the Yankees and the Red Sox and that we're so far behind, but, ultimately, it's about getting to the playoffs and winning there. We're starting to run out of a little bit of time, and 7 1/2 games is a pretty large deficit. But at the same time, it helps to try to focus on the fact that we're not really chasing anybody else in another race. In some regards, we control our own destiny."
"There's still time left," said Bay with just a little bit of bite to his voice. "But if that doesn't happen, what goes unnoticed around here is that we are in first place for the other remaining playoff spot. It obviously goes unnoticed when you're playing New York, and people want to make a huge deal out of it. But we won the wild card last year and made it to Game 7 of the ALCS. It's getting a little further away and we're running out of time, no question, and you've got to be realistic. But, at the same time, the goal is to get into the playoffs. Whatever way you do that, at least you're in."
Yes, the "other remaining playoff spot." Here's how the standings break down as of Monday morning:
1. Boston, 70-53
2. Texas, 69-54
3. Tampa Bay, 67-56
t-4. Chicago, 63-61
t-4. Seattle, 63-61
The Red Sox do have pitching -- thanks in large part to the steps forward taken by Clay Buchholz and Junichi Tazawa, now pretty much the No. 3 and No. 4 starters in the Red Sox rotation. They might even have pitching on the way if a deal for Billy Wagner is consummated in the next 24 hours or so. (That seems unlikely now, according to reports, but there's still time.)
The Red Sox also have a ferocious lineup, and if you're still worried about their .264 lineup since the All-Star break, consider this: Of the first 17 hitters that stepped to the plate against CC Sabathia on Sunday night, every single one either saw at least four pitches or wound up with a hit -- or both. The only first-pitch hackers were Mike Lowell, who doubled off the Green Monster, and Rocco Baldelli, who shot a ground ball up the middle for a run-scoring single.
Bay then swung at the first pitch in the bottom of the fourth and blooped a single over second base. Lowell and Baldelli followed with seven- and eight-pitch at-bats, respectively.
(Here's a fun stat for you: The Red Sox have the highest slugging percentage -- .683 -- of any American League team when swinging at the first pitch.)
Oh, and the team's .793 OPS in the second half is third-best in the American League -- behind only the Yankees and the Angels.
Things didn't work out against Sabathia, a horse who has thrown more pitches (2,859) than any other pitcher in the American League this season. But it's going to work quite a bit against some of the teams the Red Sox will face down the stretch.
"What needs maybe to be focused on is that we're a game up on the Rangers for the other playoff spot," Bay said. "I know a ton gets made around here about the Yankees and the Red Sox and that we're so far behind, but, ultimately, it's about getting to the playoffs and winning there. We're starting to run out of a little bit of time, and 7 1/2 games is a pretty large deficit. But at the same time, it helps to try to focus on the fact that we're not really chasing anybody else in another race. In some regards, we control our own destiny."
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Red Sox just keep grinding
"The biggest thing to do is just to keep grinding."
-- Red Sox manager Terry Francona before Monday's game
Dustin Pedroia came to the plate with Jacoby Ellsbury on first base -- soon to be on second base -- during the first inning of Friday's game against the Yankees. Pedroia worked a four-pitch walk, perfectly happy to get on base in front of Victor Martinez and Kevin Youkilis.
It was only because Martinez grounded into a double play and, after a Youkilis walk, David Ortiz grounded out to second base that the inning became the first of the 31 consecutive innings in which the Red Sox did not score a run.
Pedroia came to the plate again with Ellsbury on second base during the first inning of Monday's game against the Tigers. Edwin Jackson didn't give him a chance to work his walk, though. A missed bunt attempt -- anything to get the runner over, right? -- and a tough fastball in on the hands put the second baseman in an 0-2 hole.
"Once I get two strikes me, I'm not just trying to hit the ball to right field to get Ells over," Pedroia said. "I'm trying to just put a good at-bat together."
Pedroia set about doing what he does so well -- he laid off a fastball high and a slider in the dirt and a fastball off the plate away to run the count to 3-2. He then fouled off a full-count slider at the knees to force Jackson to throw one more pitch.
The next pitch Jackson threw actually wasn't that bad of a pitch. He threw a 93-mile-an-hour fastball down and in and didn't really give Pedroia a chance to get his arms extended. But the reigning American League MVP seemed to sense a fastball was coming and was out in front of it, taking a big swing and depositing it in the Green Monster seats for a two-run home run.
Just like that, the Red Sox had scored as many runs as they'd scored on Friday, Saturday and Sunday combined.
But Pedroia wasn't the only one to get a big hit, and he wasn't the only one to grind out an at-bat. Nine of the first 12 hitters of the game saw at least four pitches, and the only ones who didn't saw their at-bats end with hits. Eight straight batters in the first inning worked the count -- except J.D. Drew, who singled up the middle on the first pitch -- and eight straight batters either hit the ball hard or drew a walk.
The second inning was much the same story. Nick Green worked his way back from a 1-2 count, refusing to chase a couple of pitches down and out of the strike zone, and jumped on a fastball up and over the middle and launched it over the Green Monster. Even though Pedroia and Martinez both struck out, they both did so after lengthy battles that only served to drive Jackson's pitch count up.
By the end of the fourth inning, Jackson was done.
"We had long at-bats, and that's huge," Pedroia said. "To get their starter out of the game after four innings, especially playing them four times, that's pretty good."
The result -- the Red Sox survived a late rally to earn a 6-5 win -- in some ways served as a validation for the grind-it-out approach the Red Sox took with them to New York. They just hadn't gotten anything for their efforts. The Red Sox already ranked third in the major leagues in pitches seen per plate appearance (3.92), well above the league average of 3.83, and they actually maintained that approach pretty well in New York in the face of a total lack of results:
Thursday: 4.11 pitches per at-bat
Friday: 4.63
Saturday: 4.13
Sunday: 4.21
As a team, overall, the Red Sox saw 4.24 pitches per at-bat against the Yankees over the weekend -- a pretty impressive feat the way the home team's hurlers were pounding the strike zone.
"Those guys, they're pounding the strike zone, and they didn't walk a lot of guys," said left fielder Jason Bay, who watched most of the series from the bench with an injured hamstring. "It's about throwing quality strikes. I don't care if it's Single-A or the big leagues: ... If they're putting it where they want it, it's going to be hard to put a good swing on it."
Next up: Detroit rookie Rick Porcello, who threw 84 pitches but didn't get out of the fifth inning (4.0 pitches per at-bat) when he faced the Red Sox in early June.
Just keep grinding. Just keep grinding.
-- Red Sox manager Terry Francona before Monday's game
Dustin Pedroia came to the plate with Jacoby Ellsbury on first base -- soon to be on second base -- during the first inning of Friday's game against the Yankees. Pedroia worked a four-pitch walk, perfectly happy to get on base in front of Victor Martinez and Kevin Youkilis.
It was only because Martinez grounded into a double play and, after a Youkilis walk, David Ortiz grounded out to second base that the inning became the first of the 31 consecutive innings in which the Red Sox did not score a run.
Pedroia came to the plate again with Ellsbury on second base during the first inning of Monday's game against the Tigers. Edwin Jackson didn't give him a chance to work his walk, though. A missed bunt attempt -- anything to get the runner over, right? -- and a tough fastball in on the hands put the second baseman in an 0-2 hole.
"Once I get two strikes me, I'm not just trying to hit the ball to right field to get Ells over," Pedroia said. "I'm trying to just put a good at-bat together."
Pedroia set about doing what he does so well -- he laid off a fastball high and a slider in the dirt and a fastball off the plate away to run the count to 3-2. He then fouled off a full-count slider at the knees to force Jackson to throw one more pitch.
The next pitch Jackson threw actually wasn't that bad of a pitch. He threw a 93-mile-an-hour fastball down and in and didn't really give Pedroia a chance to get his arms extended. But the reigning American League MVP seemed to sense a fastball was coming and was out in front of it, taking a big swing and depositing it in the Green Monster seats for a two-run home run.
Just like that, the Red Sox had scored as many runs as they'd scored on Friday, Saturday and Sunday combined.
But Pedroia wasn't the only one to get a big hit, and he wasn't the only one to grind out an at-bat. Nine of the first 12 hitters of the game saw at least four pitches, and the only ones who didn't saw their at-bats end with hits. Eight straight batters in the first inning worked the count -- except J.D. Drew, who singled up the middle on the first pitch -- and eight straight batters either hit the ball hard or drew a walk.
The second inning was much the same story. Nick Green worked his way back from a 1-2 count, refusing to chase a couple of pitches down and out of the strike zone, and jumped on a fastball up and over the middle and launched it over the Green Monster. Even though Pedroia and Martinez both struck out, they both did so after lengthy battles that only served to drive Jackson's pitch count up.
By the end of the fourth inning, Jackson was done.
"We had long at-bats, and that's huge," Pedroia said. "To get their starter out of the game after four innings, especially playing them four times, that's pretty good."
The result -- the Red Sox survived a late rally to earn a 6-5 win -- in some ways served as a validation for the grind-it-out approach the Red Sox took with them to New York. They just hadn't gotten anything for their efforts. The Red Sox already ranked third in the major leagues in pitches seen per plate appearance (3.92), well above the league average of 3.83, and they actually maintained that approach pretty well in New York in the face of a total lack of results:
Thursday: 4.11 pitches per at-bat
Friday: 4.63
Saturday: 4.13
Sunday: 4.21
As a team, overall, the Red Sox saw 4.24 pitches per at-bat against the Yankees over the weekend -- a pretty impressive feat the way the home team's hurlers were pounding the strike zone.
"Those guys, they're pounding the strike zone, and they didn't walk a lot of guys," said left fielder Jason Bay, who watched most of the series from the bench with an injured hamstring. "It's about throwing quality strikes. I don't care if it's Single-A or the big leagues: ... If they're putting it where they want it, it's going to be hard to put a good swing on it."
Next up: Detroit rookie Rick Porcello, who threw 84 pitches but didn't get out of the fifth inning (4.0 pitches per at-bat) when he faced the Red Sox in early June.
Just keep grinding. Just keep grinding.
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