The Red Sox, conventional wisdom has it, have upgraded their defense while allowing their offense to get a little bit worse. Mike Cameron has replaced Jason Bay. Adrian Beltre has replaced Mike Lowell. The Red Sox might prevent more runs than they did a year ago, but they're not going to score as many runs.
Well, maybe.
The worst thing a player can do at the plate, after all, is make an out. The fewer outs a team makes, the more opportunities it will have to score runs. A home run tends to do the most damage, but the reason walks have become en vogue is because teams have started to realize that a walk beats virtually any result that involves making an out.
(The only exception might be a sacrifice fly or squeeze bunt that wins a game in the bottom of the ninth. Some might argue that a sacrifice fly trumps a walk with a runner on third and less than two outs -- but while a sacrifice fly plates one run and otherwise lets the air out of a rally, a walk puts another runner on base and makes a crooked-number inning more likely.)
And taking a backwards look at the Red Sox lineup -- measuring players' propensity to make outs rather than players' propensity to hit doubles or triples or home runs -- tells an interesting story:
2008
Ellsbury, .685 outs per at-bat
Pedroia, .668
Ortiz, .686
Youkilis, .605
Drew, .631
Bay, .635
Lowell, .715
Varitek, .701
Green, .744
Total: .669
2009 (with 2008 stats)
Ellsbury, .685 outs per at-bat
Pedroia, .668
Martinez, .644
Youkilis, .605
Ortiz, .686
Cameron, .682
Drew, .631
Beltre, .740
Scutaro, .649
Total: .664
(The American League average last season was .693.)
You can look at this a couple of ways:
1. The Red Sox probably are going to make outs at a lower clip than they did a year ago -- not significantly so, but the rate will be lower nonetheless. For all of the hand-wringing about how Theo Epstein has a worse offense next year than he had last year, well, his lineup has the potential to keep the line moving at an even better rate than it did last year.
2. The Red Sox don't have the black holes in their lineup that they had a year ago.
The biggest issue the Red Sox had a year ago was the lack of depth in their lineup. Once an opposing pitcher got past Jason Bay, he could cruise through the bottom third of the lineup. Lowell, Jason Varitek and Nick Green all averaged better than 0.7 outs per plate appearance a year ago.
(This figure does include double plays as well as sacrifice bunts and sacrifice flies. Double plays skew the numbers a little bit given that they, like RBIs, depend on whether runners are on base, but even Lowell -- the Red Sox leader last season with 24 GIDPs -- saw double plays account for a tiny fraction of his 346 outs.)
Of the hitters expected to start for the Red Sox on Opening Day next year, only Beltre averaged better than 0.7 outs per plate appearance last season -- and the potential exists for Beltre to see his numbers improve thanks to his move from Safeco Field to Fenway Park.
Pitchers won't get a break with the Red Sox lineup. No one other than Beltre can reasonably be expected to make outs at an above-average rate. Marco Scutaro is an enormous upgrade on Green even if his numbers regress from his career highs a year ago. Victor Martinez is an enormous upgrade on Varitek. Cameron is no Bay when it comes to avoiding outs, but he's still above average in that department.
Most importantly, as a team, the Red Sox lineup of a year ago got out more often than the Red Sox lineup of next year likely will. Backwards thinking sometimes can tell a fascinating story.
Showing posts with label varitek. Show all posts
Showing posts with label varitek. Show all posts
Monday, January 11, 2010
Monday, December 28, 2009
The upgrade of Victor over Varitek
The Red Sox need a bat, or so consensus has made clear. Even David Ortiz says so. Theo Epstein has swapped out Jason Bay and Alex Gonzalez for Mike Cameron and Marco Scutaro -- and, in a vacuum, those two moves don't represent an upgrade for an offense that managed just 15 hits in three games and hit .158 in bowing out meekly in the American League Division Series.
Two points:
1. Using three games -- any three games -- to determine offseason priorities is a mistake. Players endure slumps all the time. Teams endure slumps all the time. Executives have to build teams based on 162 games. Panicking based on a three-game skid is a great way to make mistakes. Heck, in the first three games of the World Series, the Yankees managed to hit just .224. They just happened to win two of those three games -- and, thus, no one cared.
2. Don't forget about Victor Martinez.
Yes, Martinez was part of the group that came up so short against the Angels. Yes, Martinez was a member of the Red Sox for the final two months of the season.
It seems, though, that the impact of having Martinez -- whose on-base percentage last season (.381) was well ahead of every catcher in the major leagues not named Joe Mauer -- starting every day in place of Jason Varitek has been overlooked.
Varitek played catcher almost every day until Aug. 1, coming to the plate 321 times and compiling an OPS of .794. Martinez played catcher almost every day from Aug. 2 on, coming to the plate 237 times and compiling an OPS of .912.
If you prefer advanced metrics, Varitek compiled a WAR -- wins above replacement -- of 1.3 in his full season with the Red Sox. (FanGraphs doesn't break down WAR on a month-by-month level for players who play for the same team all season.) Martinez compiled a WAR of 2.1 in just his two months with the Red Sox -- and 4.9 for the entire season.
The list of catchers who have accumulated a WAR of better than 4.9 in either of the last two seasons is a short one:
1. Joe Mauer (twice)
2. Brian McCann
That's it.
If you prefer traditional statistics, the upgrade still is clear:
* Varitek hit .209 last season, a career low, but he still hasn't hit above .255 in the last four years.
* Martinez hit .303 last season and hasn't hit below .280 in his career.
* Varitek OBP'ed .313 both last season and the season before that.
* Martinez OBP'ed .381 last season and has OBP'ed .370 or better in four of his last five seasons.
* Varitek slugged. 390 last season and hasn't slugged better than .425 in the last four years.
* Martinez slugged .480 last season and has slugged .465 or better in five of his last six seasons.
Varitek has come to the plate an avearge of 460 times per season since 2006 and accumulated an OPS+ of 85 -- in other words, production well below average -- in that span.
Martinez, instead, will get most of those at-bats next season -- and Martinez has an OPS+ of 121 since 2006.
For the sake of comparison, Jason Bay over the last four seasons has an OPS+ of 125. Mike Cameron has an OPS+ of 112. The difference between Martinez and Varitek is almost three times the difference between Bay and Cameron.
The Red Sox still might acquire a hitter. The depressed economic climate might give them no choice but to go back after Bay and hit him in the middle of their lineup -- or the Padres might start feeling generous and shop their power-hitting first baseman before the season starts.
Having Victor Martinez -- arguably the second-best-hitting catcher in the major leagues --behind the plate for a full season should not be underestimated.
Two points:
1. Using three games -- any three games -- to determine offseason priorities is a mistake. Players endure slumps all the time. Teams endure slumps all the time. Executives have to build teams based on 162 games. Panicking based on a three-game skid is a great way to make mistakes. Heck, in the first three games of the World Series, the Yankees managed to hit just .224. They just happened to win two of those three games -- and, thus, no one cared.
2. Don't forget about Victor Martinez.
Yes, Martinez was part of the group that came up so short against the Angels. Yes, Martinez was a member of the Red Sox for the final two months of the season.
It seems, though, that the impact of having Martinez -- whose on-base percentage last season (.381) was well ahead of every catcher in the major leagues not named Joe Mauer -- starting every day in place of Jason Varitek has been overlooked.
Varitek played catcher almost every day until Aug. 1, coming to the plate 321 times and compiling an OPS of .794. Martinez played catcher almost every day from Aug. 2 on, coming to the plate 237 times and compiling an OPS of .912.
If you prefer advanced metrics, Varitek compiled a WAR -- wins above replacement -- of 1.3 in his full season with the Red Sox. (FanGraphs doesn't break down WAR on a month-by-month level for players who play for the same team all season.) Martinez compiled a WAR of 2.1 in just his two months with the Red Sox -- and 4.9 for the entire season.
The list of catchers who have accumulated a WAR of better than 4.9 in either of the last two seasons is a short one:
1. Joe Mauer (twice)
2. Brian McCann
That's it.
If you prefer traditional statistics, the upgrade still is clear:
* Varitek hit .209 last season, a career low, but he still hasn't hit above .255 in the last four years.
* Martinez hit .303 last season and hasn't hit below .280 in his career.
* Varitek OBP'ed .313 both last season and the season before that.
* Martinez OBP'ed .381 last season and has OBP'ed .370 or better in four of his last five seasons.
* Varitek slugged. 390 last season and hasn't slugged better than .425 in the last four years.
* Martinez slugged .480 last season and has slugged .465 or better in five of his last six seasons.
Varitek has come to the plate an avearge of 460 times per season since 2006 and accumulated an OPS+ of 85 -- in other words, production well below average -- in that span.
Martinez, instead, will get most of those at-bats next season -- and Martinez has an OPS+ of 121 since 2006.
For the sake of comparison, Jason Bay over the last four seasons has an OPS+ of 125. Mike Cameron has an OPS+ of 112. The difference between Martinez and Varitek is almost three times the difference between Bay and Cameron.
The Red Sox still might acquire a hitter. The depressed economic climate might give them no choice but to go back after Bay and hit him in the middle of their lineup -- or the Padres might start feeling generous and shop their power-hitting first baseman before the season starts.
Having Victor Martinez -- arguably the second-best-hitting catcher in the major leagues --behind the plate for a full season should not be underestimated.
Friday, December 18, 2009
Varitek ready for reserve role
Jason Varitek could have taken a look around the major leagues. There certainly would have been options out there for him -- and probably starting options too. As frustrating as it was at times to see Varitek struggle at the plate, he still finished the season with a better OPS (.703) than Geovany Soto, Russell Martin, Ivan Rodriguez, Jarrod Saltamacchia and Gerald Laird.
Heck, the Royals just signed Jason Kendall to a two-year deal.
But the 37-year-old catcher didn't take much time to exercise the $3 million player option included in the contract he signed a year ago.
"I don't think it was much of a decision for me," said Varitek, who laced up a borrowed pair of skates and joined Bobby Orr on the ice rink at Fenway Park. "That was part of what I set out to do and what was so important to me a year ago, at this time last year: I wanted an opportunity to have a second year. If need be, my role changes, and we'll see that. But, most importantly to me, I'm here and had the opportunity to come back and be in Boston."
In some ways, Varitek is intrigued to see how he'll do catching once or twice a week. He played catcher full-time until the arrival of Victor Martinez on July 31, and he saw his OPS dwindle in every month of the season:
* April, .881
* May, .824
* June, .750
* July, .736
* August, .483
* September, .382
Part of it was injury-related: Varitek said today he played part of the season with a broken big toe. But part of it was the wear and tear associated with catching, and a lighter load behind the plate might mean a more productive bat.
"Seeing how my body adapts to less pounding and less physical grind, it might be a good time for me to transition," he said. "I'm preparing, as I always do, to be able to handle as much as I can. I'll prepare for a full-time role even though it's dictated another way. That way, if something happens, I'm ready to go."
Varitek made sure to get a player option included in last year's contract to ensure he wouldn't be left out in the cold this year. At this early stage, though, he's not about to make any proclamations about a planned retirement when this contract expires.
"I don't really know," he said. "As far as when retirement is, I'm not really thinking about that. I'm thinking about preparing and physically getting ready and mentally getting ready for the season, healing up and getting healthy and getting strong and getting ready for the next one."
Heck, the Royals just signed Jason Kendall to a two-year deal.
But the 37-year-old catcher didn't take much time to exercise the $3 million player option included in the contract he signed a year ago.
"I don't think it was much of a decision for me," said Varitek, who laced up a borrowed pair of skates and joined Bobby Orr on the ice rink at Fenway Park. "That was part of what I set out to do and what was so important to me a year ago, at this time last year: I wanted an opportunity to have a second year. If need be, my role changes, and we'll see that. But, most importantly to me, I'm here and had the opportunity to come back and be in Boston."
In some ways, Varitek is intrigued to see how he'll do catching once or twice a week. He played catcher full-time until the arrival of Victor Martinez on July 31, and he saw his OPS dwindle in every month of the season:
* April, .881
* May, .824
* June, .750
* July, .736
* August, .483
* September, .382
Part of it was injury-related: Varitek said today he played part of the season with a broken big toe. But part of it was the wear and tear associated with catching, and a lighter load behind the plate might mean a more productive bat.
"Seeing how my body adapts to less pounding and less physical grind, it might be a good time for me to transition," he said. "I'm preparing, as I always do, to be able to handle as much as I can. I'll prepare for a full-time role even though it's dictated another way. That way, if something happens, I'm ready to go."
Varitek made sure to get a player option included in last year's contract to ensure he wouldn't be left out in the cold this year. At this early stage, though, he's not about to make any proclamations about a planned retirement when this contract expires.
"I don't really know," he said. "As far as when retirement is, I'm not really thinking about that. I'm thinking about preparing and physically getting ready and mentally getting ready for the season, healing up and getting healthy and getting strong and getting ready for the next one."
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Why the Red Sox shouldn't overreact
To take things a step further: Writers and radio talk-show hosts alike are starting to clamor for Theo Epstein to do something big this offseason because the Yankees are pulling away.
They're wrong.
In fact, it's pretty easy to demonstrate why the Red Sox already are vastly improved over the team they fielded on Opening Day last season -- a deal for Jason Bay or an adequate replacement notwithstanding.
Hold onto your hats: We're going to do this using the Wins Above Replacement statistic. The statistic itself is more complex than the NFL's quarterback rating, but here's the basic gist: It calculates how many runs a player produces at the plate and how many runs a player prevents in the field. You then compare this number to the number of runs an average player at that particular position would have produced and prevented.
Every 10 extra runs produced or prevented, people who are smarter than me have figured out, tends to turn into one extra win -- hence Wins Above Replacement. Voila.
The beauty of WAR is that it's cumulative. A guy who hits .300 and play 100 games is less valuable than a guy who hits .300 and plays 120 games. A relief pitcher with a 2.00 ERA in 70 innings is less valuable than a starting pitcher with a 4.00 ERA in 200 innings. (Really. We can go over it if you'd like.)
It's tough to quantify with other statistics just how significant it is that the Red Sox go from four months of Jason Varitek and two months of Victor Martinez to six months of Martinez. But because WAR is cumulative, we actually can add up four months of Varitek and two months of Martinez and add them together and compare them to six months of Martinez.
(This is, of course, all based on last season's numbers. But no one other than maybe Marco Scutaro seemed to have a career year and is due for a precipitous fall, and no one -- I'm looking at you, David Ortiz -- seems all that likely to have a huge bounce-back year that would skew the numbers dramatically.)
Catcher
2009, Varitek/Martinez: 2.4
(To do this, you have to take two-thirds of Varitek's 2009 WAR total and add it to one-third of Martinez's 2009 WAR total since he only played in Boston in August and September.)
2010, Martinez: 4.9
First base
Second base
Third base
All constants. If the Red Sox replace Mike Lowell with Adrian Beltre, that's an upgrade from 1.2 WAR to 2.4 WAR based mostly on the defense of the two respective players.
Shortstop
2009, Nick Green/Alex Gonzalez: 0.6
(The formula here is Green for four months plus Gonzalez for two months. This actually is even more generous than it appears because Julio Lugo managed a negative WAR in his tenure in Boston before he was designated for assignment.)
2010, Scutaro: 4.5
(Need another reminder why Scutaro is such an important pickup for the Red Sox? Even if he regresses to his numbers from two seasons ago, he's still at 2.7 and a two-win upgrade over the Green/Gonzalez duo of a year ago.)
Right field
Center field
Both constants.
Left field
2009, Jason Bay: 3.1
2010, Who knows?
Victor Martinez for an entire season in place of Victor Martinez for one-third of a season is a monster upgrade. Scutaro in place of Nick Green is another monster upgrade. That's the case -- and we can't emphasize this enough -- even if he regresses. Those two moves alone are worth at least five wins to the Red Sox.
If the Red Sox lose Bay, they'll need to make a move to replace him.
(It seems increasingly unlikely they'll lose Bay, by the way. The Angels have said they're out. The Mariners and their defense-first philosophy don't seem to be a fit. The Yankees always are lurking, but they've also made noise about keeping their payroll within reason. Who else is there? He ain't going back to Pittsburgh.)
If they do bring back Bay, there's no reason to go out and do something silly just because the Yankees made a trade for a center fielder.
They're wrong.
In fact, it's pretty easy to demonstrate why the Red Sox already are vastly improved over the team they fielded on Opening Day last season -- a deal for Jason Bay or an adequate replacement notwithstanding.
Hold onto your hats: We're going to do this using the Wins Above Replacement statistic. The statistic itself is more complex than the NFL's quarterback rating, but here's the basic gist: It calculates how many runs a player produces at the plate and how many runs a player prevents in the field. You then compare this number to the number of runs an average player at that particular position would have produced and prevented.
Every 10 extra runs produced or prevented, people who are smarter than me have figured out, tends to turn into one extra win -- hence Wins Above Replacement. Voila.
The beauty of WAR is that it's cumulative. A guy who hits .300 and play 100 games is less valuable than a guy who hits .300 and plays 120 games. A relief pitcher with a 2.00 ERA in 70 innings is less valuable than a starting pitcher with a 4.00 ERA in 200 innings. (Really. We can go over it if you'd like.)
It's tough to quantify with other statistics just how significant it is that the Red Sox go from four months of Jason Varitek and two months of Victor Martinez to six months of Martinez. But because WAR is cumulative, we actually can add up four months of Varitek and two months of Martinez and add them together and compare them to six months of Martinez.
(This is, of course, all based on last season's numbers. But no one other than maybe Marco Scutaro seemed to have a career year and is due for a precipitous fall, and no one -- I'm looking at you, David Ortiz -- seems all that likely to have a huge bounce-back year that would skew the numbers dramatically.)
Catcher
2009, Varitek/Martinez: 2.4
(To do this, you have to take two-thirds of Varitek's 2009 WAR total and add it to one-third of Martinez's 2009 WAR total since he only played in Boston in August and September.)
2010, Martinez: 4.9
First base
Second base
Third base
All constants. If the Red Sox replace Mike Lowell with Adrian Beltre, that's an upgrade from 1.2 WAR to 2.4 WAR based mostly on the defense of the two respective players.
Shortstop
2009, Nick Green/Alex Gonzalez: 0.6
(The formula here is Green for four months plus Gonzalez for two months. This actually is even more generous than it appears because Julio Lugo managed a negative WAR in his tenure in Boston before he was designated for assignment.)
2010, Scutaro: 4.5
(Need another reminder why Scutaro is such an important pickup for the Red Sox? Even if he regresses to his numbers from two seasons ago, he's still at 2.7 and a two-win upgrade over the Green/Gonzalez duo of a year ago.)
Right field
Center field
Both constants.
Left field
2009, Jason Bay: 3.1
2010, Who knows?
Victor Martinez for an entire season in place of Victor Martinez for one-third of a season is a monster upgrade. Scutaro in place of Nick Green is another monster upgrade. That's the case -- and we can't emphasize this enough -- even if he regresses. Those two moves alone are worth at least five wins to the Red Sox.
If the Red Sox lose Bay, they'll need to make a move to replace him.
(It seems increasingly unlikely they'll lose Bay, by the way. The Angels have said they're out. The Mariners and their defense-first philosophy don't seem to be a fit. The Yankees always are lurking, but they've also made noise about keeping their payroll within reason. Who else is there? He ain't going back to Pittsburgh.)
If they do bring back Bay, there's no reason to go out and do something silly just because the Yankees made a trade for a center fielder.
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Martinez or Varitek: Game 1 catcher?
Many believed Red Sox manager Terry Francona wouldn't have the guts to make Jason Varitek his second-string catcher. It's not easy -- no matter how convincing the statistics might make the case -- to meet with your captain, your leader, your rock, your catcher on two World Series title teams, and tell him, in so many words, "We're a better team when you don't play."
Francona has always seen his players as more than run producers, as more than batting averages and on-base percentages and strikeout rates. He's always seen his job as manager as more than writing in the lineup card and putting on the hit and run. He's always believed the way he does what's best for his players is the only way to get his players to do what's best for the team.
Look at the way Francona handled the early-season slump of David Ortiz. While fans and writers and radio voices alike all screamed for Ortiz to ride the pine, Francona stuck with him and stuck with him and stuck with him.
"He’s going to get hot,” Francona said in late May. "How hot? I can’t wait to find out. But when he does, that’s why being patient is really the only thing to do. If I’m wrong, I take responsibility. I just think it’s the right thing for us to do."
It wasn't because Francona believed Ortiz was going to look once again like the hitter he'd been two or three years ago when he hit 45 or 50 home runs and OPS'ed well over 1.000. It was because Francona believed Ortiz was better than the hitter who was OPS'ing less than .600 into early June. It was because Francona believed he could get more out of Ortiz by sticking with him than by kicking him to the curb.
Ortiz still isn't the old Ortiz. But he's worked his OPS back up to .767 -- eight points above the average OPS in the American League -- and has hit 24 home runs, the same number as Matt Holliday and more than Victor Martinez, Brian McCann, Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval and Michael Young. He might not be worthy of returning to his old spot at No. 3 in the Red Sox lineup, but he's rewarded the faith Francona showed him with a productive second half.
The difference between Ortiz and Varitek, of course, is the fact that the Red Sox have never had a viable alternative to Ortiz. The acquisition of Victor Martinez from Cleveland gave the Red Sox an immediate and impressive alternative to the rapidly fading Varitek.
The offensive numbers, of course, don't compare.
Career OPS
Martinez: .836
Varitek: .780
2005-08 OPS
Martinez: .841
Varitek: .764
2009 OPS
Martinez: .857
Varitek: .717
But Varitek always has been a serviceable hitter rather than a star. His work with Red Sox pitchers has always been his calling card. With Josh Beckett a Cy Young Award candidate and Jon Lester coming into his own, Francona had more than enough ammunition to tell critics that Varitek still would play an essential role in his team down the stretch.
It hasn't gone that way.
Martinez caught Clay Buchholz in Baltimore on Friday, as has become customary. But he caught Lester in Baltimore on Saturday, too -- and that means he's almost completely supplanted Varitek as the team's starting catcher.
The only pitchers who regularly throw to Varitek now are Josh Beckett (likely the team's Game 1 starter in the ALDS) and Paul Byrd (likely a spectactor for the ALCS). Francona has made the decision -- for good reason, it seems -- to push Varitek more and more into the background with Martinez more and more looking like a player who will catch 120 or so games next season.
This begs the question: Will Varitek catch Beckett in the playoffs -- or will Martinez?
"I know the numbers with (Varitek) are phenomenal and I believe in that," Francona told reporters in Baltimore when the subject came up. "I also think the night that Victor caught Beckett was a crazy night. Again, I’m very aware that when Victor catches our lineup is more potent. Also, our goal is to win that game, again that’s where we probably have to sit down at some point.
"I don’t know the answer. I certain don’t think it’s a bad question, but I don’t know what the answer is."
Presuming the Yankees choose the longer of the two ALDS schedules, the Red Sox will play the following schedule in the first round against the Angels (and throw their pitchers in the following order):
Game 1: Oct. 8 (Beckett)
Game 2: Oct. 9 (Lester)
Game 3: Oct. 11 (Buchholz)
Game 4: Oct. 12 (TBD, but likely Daisuke Matsuzaka)
Game 5: Oct. 14 (Beckett)
Martinez certainly can catch five games in seven days. He caught five games in eight days in early September, and that was while playing first base in between rather than having days off to lay around and relax and answer stupid questions from reporters like this one. He'll have the whole winter to recuperate: He's not going to get worn down catching all five games against the Angels in the ALDS.
But that doesn't mean that's what Francona will do.
For one thing, the first and only time Martinez caught Beckett this season, the Red Sox ace surrendered seven runs in 5 1/3 innings. No one really can know if there's any correlation: Beckett then spun off three more lousy starts before turning a corner, and Varitek was behind the plate for those three lousy starts as well as his three encouraging starts since.
Whether you believe something about Varitek makes Beckett pitch better or not, it's tough to deny one point: Francona isn't going to have Beckett pitch to Martinez in Game 1 of the ALDS without having him pitch to Martinez at some point before the season ends. It makes no sense. If Martinez is going to catch Beckett in the playoffs, he's going to have to get another couple of chances to catch him in the regular season.
That, though, gets tricky when the Red Sox are playing 20 straight games without a day off to close out the season.
Martinez needs to keep catching Buchholz and Lester -- and if he's going to be the primary catcher in the postseason, he probably needs to start catching Beckett and Matsuzaka, too. But Francona would be insane to ask Martinez to catch 16 or 17 of the final 20 games of the season and still to expect him to produce at a .900 OPS-type level when it counts the most.
The Red Sox are a better team when Martinez is behind the plate. That's clear. Francona, for all of his loyalty to the veterans who won him two World Series rings, has found a way to ease Varitek out of the Red Sox lineup on an everyday basis.
But he's also not going to risk losing Game 1 of the ALDS because Beckett isn't comfortable with his catcher. Varitek almost certainly is going to catch Beckett in the playoffs.
Francona has always seen his players as more than run producers, as more than batting averages and on-base percentages and strikeout rates. He's always seen his job as manager as more than writing in the lineup card and putting on the hit and run. He's always believed the way he does what's best for his players is the only way to get his players to do what's best for the team.
Look at the way Francona handled the early-season slump of David Ortiz. While fans and writers and radio voices alike all screamed for Ortiz to ride the pine, Francona stuck with him and stuck with him and stuck with him.
"He’s going to get hot,” Francona said in late May. "How hot? I can’t wait to find out. But when he does, that’s why being patient is really the only thing to do. If I’m wrong, I take responsibility. I just think it’s the right thing for us to do."
It wasn't because Francona believed Ortiz was going to look once again like the hitter he'd been two or three years ago when he hit 45 or 50 home runs and OPS'ed well over 1.000. It was because Francona believed Ortiz was better than the hitter who was OPS'ing less than .600 into early June. It was because Francona believed he could get more out of Ortiz by sticking with him than by kicking him to the curb.
Ortiz still isn't the old Ortiz. But he's worked his OPS back up to .767 -- eight points above the average OPS in the American League -- and has hit 24 home runs, the same number as Matt Holliday and more than Victor Martinez, Brian McCann, Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval and Michael Young. He might not be worthy of returning to his old spot at No. 3 in the Red Sox lineup, but he's rewarded the faith Francona showed him with a productive second half.
The difference between Ortiz and Varitek, of course, is the fact that the Red Sox have never had a viable alternative to Ortiz. The acquisition of Victor Martinez from Cleveland gave the Red Sox an immediate and impressive alternative to the rapidly fading Varitek.
The offensive numbers, of course, don't compare.
Career OPS
Martinez: .836
Varitek: .780
2005-08 OPS
Martinez: .841
Varitek: .764
2009 OPS
Martinez: .857
Varitek: .717
But Varitek always has been a serviceable hitter rather than a star. His work with Red Sox pitchers has always been his calling card. With Josh Beckett a Cy Young Award candidate and Jon Lester coming into his own, Francona had more than enough ammunition to tell critics that Varitek still would play an essential role in his team down the stretch.
It hasn't gone that way.
Martinez caught Clay Buchholz in Baltimore on Friday, as has become customary. But he caught Lester in Baltimore on Saturday, too -- and that means he's almost completely supplanted Varitek as the team's starting catcher.
The only pitchers who regularly throw to Varitek now are Josh Beckett (likely the team's Game 1 starter in the ALDS) and Paul Byrd (likely a spectactor for the ALCS). Francona has made the decision -- for good reason, it seems -- to push Varitek more and more into the background with Martinez more and more looking like a player who will catch 120 or so games next season.
This begs the question: Will Varitek catch Beckett in the playoffs -- or will Martinez?
"I know the numbers with (Varitek) are phenomenal and I believe in that," Francona told reporters in Baltimore when the subject came up. "I also think the night that Victor caught Beckett was a crazy night. Again, I’m very aware that when Victor catches our lineup is more potent. Also, our goal is to win that game, again that’s where we probably have to sit down at some point.
"I don’t know the answer. I certain don’t think it’s a bad question, but I don’t know what the answer is."
Presuming the Yankees choose the longer of the two ALDS schedules, the Red Sox will play the following schedule in the first round against the Angels (and throw their pitchers in the following order):
Game 1: Oct. 8 (Beckett)
Game 2: Oct. 9 (Lester)
Game 3: Oct. 11 (Buchholz)
Game 4: Oct. 12 (TBD, but likely Daisuke Matsuzaka)
Game 5: Oct. 14 (Beckett)
Martinez certainly can catch five games in seven days. He caught five games in eight days in early September, and that was while playing first base in between rather than having days off to lay around and relax and answer stupid questions from reporters like this one. He'll have the whole winter to recuperate: He's not going to get worn down catching all five games against the Angels in the ALDS.
But that doesn't mean that's what Francona will do.
For one thing, the first and only time Martinez caught Beckett this season, the Red Sox ace surrendered seven runs in 5 1/3 innings. No one really can know if there's any correlation: Beckett then spun off three more lousy starts before turning a corner, and Varitek was behind the plate for those three lousy starts as well as his three encouraging starts since.
Whether you believe something about Varitek makes Beckett pitch better or not, it's tough to deny one point: Francona isn't going to have Beckett pitch to Martinez in Game 1 of the ALDS without having him pitch to Martinez at some point before the season ends. It makes no sense. If Martinez is going to catch Beckett in the playoffs, he's going to have to get another couple of chances to catch him in the regular season.
That, though, gets tricky when the Red Sox are playing 20 straight games without a day off to close out the season.
Martinez needs to keep catching Buchholz and Lester -- and if he's going to be the primary catcher in the postseason, he probably needs to start catching Beckett and Matsuzaka, too. But Francona would be insane to ask Martinez to catch 16 or 17 of the final 20 games of the season and still to expect him to produce at a .900 OPS-type level when it counts the most.
The Red Sox are a better team when Martinez is behind the plate. That's clear. Francona, for all of his loyalty to the veterans who won him two World Series rings, has found a way to ease Varitek out of the Red Sox lineup on an everyday basis.
But he's also not going to risk losing Game 1 of the ALDS because Beckett isn't comfortable with his catcher. Varitek almost certainly is going to catch Beckett in the playoffs.
Saturday, August 15, 2009
The optimal Red Sox lineup
Kevin Youkilis will return from his suspension on Tuesday in Toronto and bring with him one of the best bats in the Red Sox lineup. His return, though, will make things even more challenging for Red Sox manager Terry Francona in his effort to juggle playing time for the weapons at his disposal.
We can hold a few truths to be self-evident:
1. Jason Bay, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Victor Martinez, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis should be in the Red Sox lineup just about every single day.
2. Neither Alex Gonzalez, acquired Friday from Cincinnati, or Nick Green should be hitting higher than ninth in the lineup.
3. Casey Kotchman is a terrific defensive first baseman.
4. Red Sox pitchers, particularly Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, love throwing to Jason Varitek.
5. Mike Lowell and David Ortiz both are getting older and slower and bring varying degrees of effectiveness with the bat -- and both have significant numbers left on their contracts
The issue facing Francona right now revolves mostly around first base, catcher and designated hitter. Ortiz and Varitek each have a long history with Francona and with the Red Sox, but neither is swinging anything resembling a productive bat. Mike Lowell is swinging a hotter bat than anyone on the team but doesn't have adequate range to play third base every day. Casey Kotchman is a fairly average hitter but can really, really pick it at first base.
But with Victor Martinez an everyday presence, only two of the four can play every day.
Who should it be?
Here's how they stack up this year against lefties...
Lowell: .903 OPS
Varitek: .872
Ortiz: .720
Kotchman: .634
... and against righties:
Lowell: .818 OPS
Kotchman: .806
Varitek: .719
Ortiz: .696
It really is that simple.
Lowell should be DH'ing every day. Varitek should catch primarily against lefties and sit primarily against lefties, though his rapport with Josh Beckett and Jon Lester ought to have something to do with it, too.
Kotchman should sit against lefties and play against righties. Ortiz should be a formidable lefthanded bat off the bench who can give opposing managers pause when they're thinking about bringing in a right to face the bottom of the Red Sox lineup.
Youkilis will be back Tuesday. We'll see how Francona plays it.
We can hold a few truths to be self-evident:
1. Jason Bay, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Victor Martinez, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis should be in the Red Sox lineup just about every single day.
2. Neither Alex Gonzalez, acquired Friday from Cincinnati, or Nick Green should be hitting higher than ninth in the lineup.
3. Casey Kotchman is a terrific defensive first baseman.
4. Red Sox pitchers, particularly Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, love throwing to Jason Varitek.
5. Mike Lowell and David Ortiz both are getting older and slower and bring varying degrees of effectiveness with the bat -- and both have significant numbers left on their contracts
The issue facing Francona right now revolves mostly around first base, catcher and designated hitter. Ortiz and Varitek each have a long history with Francona and with the Red Sox, but neither is swinging anything resembling a productive bat. Mike Lowell is swinging a hotter bat than anyone on the team but doesn't have adequate range to play third base every day. Casey Kotchman is a fairly average hitter but can really, really pick it at first base.
But with Victor Martinez an everyday presence, only two of the four can play every day.
Who should it be?
Here's how they stack up this year against lefties...
Lowell: .903 OPS
Varitek: .872
Ortiz: .720
Kotchman: .634
... and against righties:
Lowell: .818 OPS
Kotchman: .806
Varitek: .719
Ortiz: .696
It really is that simple.
Lowell should be DH'ing every day. Varitek should catch primarily against lefties and sit primarily against lefties, though his rapport with Josh Beckett and Jon Lester ought to have something to do with it, too.
Kotchman should sit against lefties and play against righties. Ortiz should be a formidable lefthanded bat off the bench who can give opposing managers pause when they're thinking about bringing in a right to face the bottom of the Red Sox lineup.
Youkilis will be back Tuesday. We'll see how Francona plays it.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Veteran hitters going in opposite directions
If you just look at David Ortiz's percentages, as you well know, you'll still think he's having a terrible season. He's hitting .213 (92nd in the American League) and OBP'ing .310 (76th in the American League) and slugging .370 (84th in the American League).
But Ortiz has, over his last 14 games:
* A .333 batting average
* A .447 on-base percentage
* A .769 slugging percentage
* Five home runs
* Nine RBI
* Nine runs scored
If he were to keep up that type of pace for the rest of the season, he'd finish the year with 39 home runs and 90 RBI.
He's not going to keep up that pace for the rest of the year, of course. But there's a big reason you don't hear any more talk about Nick Johnson or anyone like that: Big Papi isn't just pulling his weight. He's hitting like Big Papi again. The home run he hit through a driving mist into the second row of the Green Monster seats was as hard-hit a ball as you'll see all season.
"He feels like he's hitting the ball well -- and he looks like he's hitting the ball well," outfielder J.D. Drew said. "He's squared up a lot of pitches, and he's gotten some big hits. Just leave him alone and let him play, and it'll work out well."
***
Jason Varitek felt so good about the two doubles he'd hit off Derek Lowe on Saturday night that he forgot he doesn't like to talk about his own hitting.
"I've hit some balls hard over the past week, 10 days, and haven't had the results," he said. "Maybe I didn't hit a ball as hard as hard and got a result. It's a crazy game."
The veteran catcher will take anything he can, of course. But you can't help but wonder if that big day -- aided by the fact that the official scorer didn't penalize Garret Anderson for a ball that deflected off his glove in front of the Green Monster -- was just a brief reprieve. Even with that big day, he's hitting .186 and slugging .390 over his last 18 games. That's not a good sign for a guy who started last season with quite a bit of promise, too. Check out these numbers:
2008
April-May: .272/.353/.470
June: .122/.205/.176
July-September: .217/.322/.343
ALDS: .214/.214/.214
ALCS: .050/.174/.200
2009
April-May: .239/.327/.522
June: .190/.320/.333
Terry Francona gave Mike Lowell back-to-back days off over the weekend to give the veteran infielder a chance to rest his sore hip. Particularly with the way George Kottaras has been hitting of late -- .355/.382/.581 in sporadic duty over the last month -- it might be worth giving Varitek a few more days off than he's been getting.
As John Smoltz has said so often, it's not about one or two games in June or July with this team. It's about October.
But Ortiz has, over his last 14 games:
* A .333 batting average
* A .447 on-base percentage
* A .769 slugging percentage
* Five home runs
* Nine RBI
* Nine runs scored
If he were to keep up that type of pace for the rest of the season, he'd finish the year with 39 home runs and 90 RBI.
He's not going to keep up that pace for the rest of the year, of course. But there's a big reason you don't hear any more talk about Nick Johnson or anyone like that: Big Papi isn't just pulling his weight. He's hitting like Big Papi again. The home run he hit through a driving mist into the second row of the Green Monster seats was as hard-hit a ball as you'll see all season.
"He feels like he's hitting the ball well -- and he looks like he's hitting the ball well," outfielder J.D. Drew said. "He's squared up a lot of pitches, and he's gotten some big hits. Just leave him alone and let him play, and it'll work out well."
***
Jason Varitek felt so good about the two doubles he'd hit off Derek Lowe on Saturday night that he forgot he doesn't like to talk about his own hitting.
"I've hit some balls hard over the past week, 10 days, and haven't had the results," he said. "Maybe I didn't hit a ball as hard as hard and got a result. It's a crazy game."
The veteran catcher will take anything he can, of course. But you can't help but wonder if that big day -- aided by the fact that the official scorer didn't penalize Garret Anderson for a ball that deflected off his glove in front of the Green Monster -- was just a brief reprieve. Even with that big day, he's hitting .186 and slugging .390 over his last 18 games. That's not a good sign for a guy who started last season with quite a bit of promise, too. Check out these numbers:
2008
April-May: .272/.353/.470
June: .122/.205/.176
July-September: .217/.322/.343
ALDS: .214/.214/.214
ALCS: .050/.174/.200
2009
April-May: .239/.327/.522
June: .190/.320/.333
Terry Francona gave Mike Lowell back-to-back days off over the weekend to give the veteran infielder a chance to rest his sore hip. Particularly with the way George Kottaras has been hitting of late -- .355/.382/.581 in sporadic duty over the last month -- it might be worth giving Varitek a few more days off than he's been getting.
As John Smoltz has said so often, it's not about one or two games in June or July with this team. It's about October.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Varitek's home runs and line drives
You have to be wondering if this Jason Varitek power surge -- Varitek hit two more home runs today at Minnesota and now has 10 on the season, three shy of his total from all of last season -- can continue.
A look at the ratios -- yes, we love ratios:
Home Run Ratio
(Percent of plate appearances in which a home run is hit)
2003: 4.8
2004: 3.4
2005: 4.1
2006: 2.9
2007: 3.3
2008: 2.7
2009: 5.4
Varitek, as you can see, is homering well beyond his regular pace.
Line Drive Ratio
(Percent of balls put into play that are line drives)
2003: 15
2004: 20
2005: 17
2006: 17
2007: 18
2008: 15
2009: 11
Varitek, as you can see, is hitting the ball hard below even last year's pace.
Contradiction? You'd think so.
Can it sustain itself?
Let's look elsewhere:
* Kevin Youkilis has seen his home-run rate increase over the last three years (from 2.6 percent to 4.7 percent to 4.9 percent) and his line-drive rate has increased at the same time (from 21 percent to 22 percent to 26 percent). That somehow seems intuitive.
* Jason Bay, on the other hand, has seen his home-run rate increase (from 3.4 percent to 4.6 percent to 6.9 percent) but his line-drive rate decrease (from 18 percent to 17 percent to 11 percent.)
* And Mike Lowell has seen his home-run rate climb (from 3.2 percent to 3.6 percent to 4.3 percent) while his line-drive rate has actually been fairly stagnant if trending downward (from 20 percent to 21 percent to 18 percent).
* J.D. Drew has seen his home-run rate go from 2.0 percent up to 4.2 percent down to 3.6 percent, and his line-drive rate is on the opposite type of arc -- it's gone from 18 percent up to 17 percent down to 26 percent.
It would seem to make sense that as a player hits more line drives -- in other words, hits the ball hard more often -- he'd hit more home runs. It would seem to make sense that Varitek's power surge can't be sustainable because he's hitting fewer line drives than at any time in his entire career.
But home runs aren't line drives. Home runs are fly balls. A slugger can hit home runs without hitting line drives: When Brian McCann hit 23 home runs as a catcher a year ago, his line-drive percentage was just 19 percent -- sixth on his team and slightly below the league average. Heck, Jason Bay has the same line-drive percentage as Varitek this season and is on pace to hit almost 50 home runs.
Varitek's power surge? It's more sustainable than you'd think.
A look at the ratios -- yes, we love ratios:
Home Run Ratio
(Percent of plate appearances in which a home run is hit)
2003: 4.8
2004: 3.4
2005: 4.1
2006: 2.9
2007: 3.3
2008: 2.7
2009: 5.4
Varitek, as you can see, is homering well beyond his regular pace.
Line Drive Ratio
(Percent of balls put into play that are line drives)
2003: 15
2004: 20
2005: 17
2006: 17
2007: 18
2008: 15
2009: 11
Varitek, as you can see, is hitting the ball hard below even last year's pace.
Contradiction? You'd think so.
Can it sustain itself?
Let's look elsewhere:
* Kevin Youkilis has seen his home-run rate increase over the last three years (from 2.6 percent to 4.7 percent to 4.9 percent) and his line-drive rate has increased at the same time (from 21 percent to 22 percent to 26 percent). That somehow seems intuitive.
* Jason Bay, on the other hand, has seen his home-run rate increase (from 3.4 percent to 4.6 percent to 6.9 percent) but his line-drive rate decrease (from 18 percent to 17 percent to 11 percent.)
* And Mike Lowell has seen his home-run rate climb (from 3.2 percent to 3.6 percent to 4.3 percent) while his line-drive rate has actually been fairly stagnant if trending downward (from 20 percent to 21 percent to 18 percent).
* J.D. Drew has seen his home-run rate go from 2.0 percent up to 4.2 percent down to 3.6 percent, and his line-drive rate is on the opposite type of arc -- it's gone from 18 percent up to 17 percent down to 26 percent.
It would seem to make sense that as a player hits more line drives -- in other words, hits the ball hard more often -- he'd hit more home runs. It would seem to make sense that Varitek's power surge can't be sustainable because he's hitting fewer line drives than at any time in his entire career.
But home runs aren't line drives. Home runs are fly balls. A slugger can hit home runs without hitting line drives: When Brian McCann hit 23 home runs as a catcher a year ago, his line-drive percentage was just 19 percent -- sixth on his team and slightly below the league average. Heck, Jason Bay has the same line-drive percentage as Varitek this season and is on pace to hit almost 50 home runs.
Varitek's power surge? It's more sustainable than you'd think.
Saturday, May 2, 2009
Putting Jason Varitek's April in perspective
April is in the books, and it's easy to point to Jason Varitek's power numbers as reasons why we should be optimistic about the Red Sox's veteran catcher:
* .250 batting average
* .348 on-base percentage
* .533 slugging percentage
* Five doubles
* Four home runs
* 10 RBI
* Seven walks
* Nine strikeouts
But let's compare that to Varitek's April a year ago:
* .273 batting average
* .324 on-base percentage
* .485 slugging percentage
* Five doubles
* Three home runs
* Seven RBI
* Four walks
* 13 strikeouts
(This excludes Varitek's two games in March in Japan; he went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts in each of those games. If you include those two games, his average falls to .243, his on-base percentage to .291 and his slugging percentage to .432.)
In May, Varitek hit even better: A .299 batting average with a .407 on-base percentage and a .506 slugging percentage. It wasn't until June (.122 batting average) and July (.197 batting average) that things really started to go downhill for the Red Sox catcher. His home run totals tumbled right along with his batting average:
* March/April: 3 home runs/.432 slugging
* May: 3 home runs/.506 slugging
* June: 1 home run/.176 slugging
* July: 1 home run/.288 slugging
* August: 3 home runs/.431 slugging
* September: 2 home runs/.300 slugging
OK, so the power numbers aren't exactly an indication of great things to come. Varitek had three home runs in April a year ago and six home runs on Memorial Day and still finished the year looking like he was throwing the hammer instead of swinging a bat.
But what about those walks and strikeouts?
Varitek drew seven walks in his first 16 games and struck out just nine times. It was the first time in two seasons his walk/strikeout numbers have been so close together; it was the first time since April of 2006 that he's struck out fewer than 10 times in a month.
Check out these monthly totals -- and the batting averages that went with them:
2009
March/April: 7 walks/9 strikeouts (.250)
2008
* March/April: 4 walks/19 strikeouts (.243)
* May: 12 walks/20 strikeouts (.299)
* June: 8 walks/22 strikeouts (.122)
* July: 9 walks/22 strikeouts (.197)
* August: 12 walks/21 strikeouts (.264)
* September: 7 walks/18 strikeouts (.183)
2007
* March/April: 9 walks/15 strikeouts(.239)
* May: 12 walks/13 strikeouts (.311)
* June: 8 walks/26 strikeouts (.234)
* July: 12 walks/17 strikeouts (.294)
* August: 13 walks/23 strikeouts (.234)
* September: 17 walks/28 strikeouts (.222)
As is the case with any player, Varitek does hit better when he's walking more and striking out less. But the numbers still are striking: When he walked more than 10 times and struck out 20 or fewer times in 2007 and 2008, he hit .294, .299 and .311. When he walked fewer than 10 times and/or struck out more than 20 times, well, he didn't exactly hit .294.
No one is expecting Varitek to hit close to .300 in any month this season. But the way he's cut down his strikeouts -- his nine whiffs this April were fewer than half his total in any month last year -- while maintaining decent walk totals and OBP numbers shows he's not necessarily on the steep downward slope many of us thought he was on.
In fact, when you look at his batting average on balls in play -- .234, by far the lowest on the team -- he might actually be due for a hot streak sometime soon.
* .250 batting average
* .348 on-base percentage
* .533 slugging percentage
* Five doubles
* Four home runs
* 10 RBI
* Seven walks
* Nine strikeouts
But let's compare that to Varitek's April a year ago:
* .273 batting average
* .324 on-base percentage
* .485 slugging percentage
* Five doubles
* Three home runs
* Seven RBI
* Four walks
* 13 strikeouts
(This excludes Varitek's two games in March in Japan; he went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts in each of those games. If you include those two games, his average falls to .243, his on-base percentage to .291 and his slugging percentage to .432.)
In May, Varitek hit even better: A .299 batting average with a .407 on-base percentage and a .506 slugging percentage. It wasn't until June (.122 batting average) and July (.197 batting average) that things really started to go downhill for the Red Sox catcher. His home run totals tumbled right along with his batting average:
* March/April: 3 home runs/.432 slugging
* May: 3 home runs/.506 slugging
* June: 1 home run/.176 slugging
* July: 1 home run/.288 slugging
* August: 3 home runs/.431 slugging
* September: 2 home runs/.300 slugging
OK, so the power numbers aren't exactly an indication of great things to come. Varitek had three home runs in April a year ago and six home runs on Memorial Day and still finished the year looking like he was throwing the hammer instead of swinging a bat.
But what about those walks and strikeouts?
Varitek drew seven walks in his first 16 games and struck out just nine times. It was the first time in two seasons his walk/strikeout numbers have been so close together; it was the first time since April of 2006 that he's struck out fewer than 10 times in a month.
Check out these monthly totals -- and the batting averages that went with them:
2009
March/April: 7 walks/9 strikeouts (.250)
2008
* March/April: 4 walks/19 strikeouts (.243)
* May: 12 walks/20 strikeouts (.299)
* June: 8 walks/22 strikeouts (.122)
* July: 9 walks/22 strikeouts (.197)
* August: 12 walks/21 strikeouts (.264)
* September: 7 walks/18 strikeouts (.183)
2007
* March/April: 9 walks/15 strikeouts(.239)
* May: 12 walks/13 strikeouts (.311)
* June: 8 walks/26 strikeouts (.234)
* July: 12 walks/17 strikeouts (.294)
* August: 13 walks/23 strikeouts (.234)
* September: 17 walks/28 strikeouts (.222)
As is the case with any player, Varitek does hit better when he's walking more and striking out less. But the numbers still are striking: When he walked more than 10 times and struck out 20 or fewer times in 2007 and 2008, he hit .294, .299 and .311. When he walked fewer than 10 times and/or struck out more than 20 times, well, he didn't exactly hit .294.
No one is expecting Varitek to hit close to .300 in any month this season. But the way he's cut down his strikeouts -- his nine whiffs this April were fewer than half his total in any month last year -- while maintaining decent walk totals and OBP numbers shows he's not necessarily on the steep downward slope many of us thought he was on.
In fact, when you look at his batting average on balls in play -- .234, by far the lowest on the team -- he might actually be due for a hot streak sometime soon.
Thursday, April 9, 2009
Asked and answered: Jason Varitek
Red Sox starter Jon Lester pitched five strong innings and threw one bad pitch on Wednesday night; the lefty was charged with five earned runs, but a pop-up behind third that fell for a hit and a miscommunication on a squeeze bunt really were what ruined his night. Only his five-pitch walk to Gabe Kapler and the fastball he left up to Carlos Pena (a pitch Pena hit into the center-field bleachers) were really his fault.
The outing certain didn't diminish the faith Jason Varitek has in his young pitcher:
What went wrong for Jon in the fifth?
"We had some little things happen. Actually, he kept us in it -- he was one pitch away, the pitch to Pena that ended up being a little bit of the difference. ... A few freak things happened, and then he worked his way into keeping the game at a two-run game. He didn't get away with one pitch to Pena, and it ended up being a four-run game."
How tough a play is that squeeze?
"I took two hard steps (toward the ball), and it looked like Jonny had a bead on it and I went back to get home, but with those two hard steps, I got Jonny thinking I was getting it. We got criss-crossed there. I probably should have kept going through the play and got the out."
How did Jon look otherwise?
"I think Jon threw the ball well. He kept the damage -- there was some freak stuff in that inning -- kept it right there. We were just one pitch (away). Jon is going to do a great job for us, period. It's just unfornate that happened. He threw the ball well."
Is Jon's changeup where you want it to be at this point?
"He's going to progressively continue to get better with it. He made some good pitches with it tonight."
The outing certain didn't diminish the faith Jason Varitek has in his young pitcher:
What went wrong for Jon in the fifth?
"We had some little things happen. Actually, he kept us in it -- he was one pitch away, the pitch to Pena that ended up being a little bit of the difference. ... A few freak things happened, and then he worked his way into keeping the game at a two-run game. He didn't get away with one pitch to Pena, and it ended up being a four-run game."
How tough a play is that squeeze?
"I took two hard steps (toward the ball), and it looked like Jonny had a bead on it and I went back to get home, but with those two hard steps, I got Jonny thinking I was getting it. We got criss-crossed there. I probably should have kept going through the play and got the out."
How did Jon look otherwise?
"I think Jon threw the ball well. He kept the damage -- there was some freak stuff in that inning -- kept it right there. We were just one pitch (away). Jon is going to do a great job for us, period. It's just unfornate that happened. He threw the ball well."
Is Jon's changeup where you want it to be at this point?
"He's going to progressively continue to get better with it. He made some good pitches with it tonight."
Thursday, February 5, 2009
Countdown to spring training: Catcher
In case you've been under a rock or in hibernation for the winter, the Red Sox went through a little bit of drama in their pursuit of a catcher. As it turns out, Jason Varitek will be right back where he's been for the last decade, and Josh Bard and out-of-options farmhand George Kottaras will be competing to back him up.
Jason Varitek (will turn 37 in April)
2008: .220 batting average, .313 on-base, .359 slugging
2007: .255 batting average, .367 on-base, .421 slugging
2006: .238 batting average, .325 on-base, .400 slugging
Josh Bard (will turn 31 in March)
2008: .202 batting, .279 on-base, .270 slugging
2007: .285 batting, .364 on-base, .404 slugging
2006: .333 batting, .381 on-base, .333 slugging
George Kottaras (will turn 26 in May)
2008 (Triple-A): .243 batting, .348 on-base, .456 slugging
2007 (Triple-A): .241 batting, .316 on-base, .408 slugging
2006 (Double-A and Triple-A): .255 batting, .361 on-base, .423 slugging
Nothing in that series of numbers is going to scare any opposing pitcher. The Red Sox -- barring a trade for one of the oft-discussed young catchers around baseball -- are going to have something of a hole in their lineup at the No. 8 or No. 9 spot, depending on where Francona opts to hit his catcher on any given day.
But it doesn't have to be quite as bad as it looks.
Varitek is a far better hitter from the right side (.284 career batting average) than from the left (.254 career batting average). Last season, he hit .284 from the right side and an abysmal .201 from the left side. He struck out more often than he reached base as a lefty; he reached base twice as often as he struck out as a righty.
Bard, another switch-hitter, also is better from the right side (.288) than from the left (.256) in his career. His power numbers are better from the right side (.443 slugging percentage) than from the left (.376 slugging percentage). A year ago, strangely enough, he hit .230 from the left side and .135 from the right side. But that appears to be an anomaly; the year before that, he hit .376 as a righty and .250 as a lefty.
Should the Red Sox opt for a platoon, they could do so -- Bard's lefty-righty splits aren't as drastic as those of Varitek's. The Red Sox could play Varitek all the time against left-handed pitching and half the time against right-handed pitching; they could play Bard the other half of the time against right-handed pitching.
Here's how that could play out, based on 650 total plate appearances. We'll base it on career numbers, which might be generous for Varitek, but we can cut him a little bit of slack. We'll also assume that the Red Sox face right-handed pitching approximately twice as often as they face left-handed pitching, for the sake of easy math.
Varitek against lefties (217 plate appearances):
.284 batting average, 8 home runs, 32 RBI
Varitek against righties (217 plate appearances):
.254 batting average, 7 home runs, 27 RBI
Bard against righties (216 plate appearances):
.256 batting average, 4 home runs, 27 RBI
Grand total (650 plate appearances):
.265 batting average, 19 home runs, 86 RBI
Again, those numbers are a little bit generous because we're including Varitek's prime years as well as his decline years. But stacked up against what they got from their catchers last season (.218 batting average, 14 home runs, 55 RBI) they look pretty good. Heck, stacked up against the average American League team a year ago (.258 batting average, 15 home runs, 73 RBI), they don't look so bad.
The Red Sox have stars all over the field. All they need from their catchers is good defense and adequate production at the plate. The right platoon of Varitek and Bard just might get that done.
Jason Varitek (will turn 37 in April)
2008: .220 batting average, .313 on-base, .359 slugging
2007: .255 batting average, .367 on-base, .421 slugging
2006: .238 batting average, .325 on-base, .400 slugging
Josh Bard (will turn 31 in March)
2008: .202 batting, .279 on-base, .270 slugging
2007: .285 batting, .364 on-base, .404 slugging
2006: .333 batting, .381 on-base, .333 slugging
George Kottaras (will turn 26 in May)
2008 (Triple-A): .243 batting, .348 on-base, .456 slugging
2007 (Triple-A): .241 batting, .316 on-base, .408 slugging
2006 (Double-A and Triple-A): .255 batting, .361 on-base, .423 slugging
Nothing in that series of numbers is going to scare any opposing pitcher. The Red Sox -- barring a trade for one of the oft-discussed young catchers around baseball -- are going to have something of a hole in their lineup at the No. 8 or No. 9 spot, depending on where Francona opts to hit his catcher on any given day.
But it doesn't have to be quite as bad as it looks.
Varitek is a far better hitter from the right side (.284 career batting average) than from the left (.254 career batting average). Last season, he hit .284 from the right side and an abysmal .201 from the left side. He struck out more often than he reached base as a lefty; he reached base twice as often as he struck out as a righty.
Bard, another switch-hitter, also is better from the right side (.288) than from the left (.256) in his career. His power numbers are better from the right side (.443 slugging percentage) than from the left (.376 slugging percentage). A year ago, strangely enough, he hit .230 from the left side and .135 from the right side. But that appears to be an anomaly; the year before that, he hit .376 as a righty and .250 as a lefty.
Should the Red Sox opt for a platoon, they could do so -- Bard's lefty-righty splits aren't as drastic as those of Varitek's. The Red Sox could play Varitek all the time against left-handed pitching and half the time against right-handed pitching; they could play Bard the other half of the time against right-handed pitching.
Here's how that could play out, based on 650 total plate appearances. We'll base it on career numbers, which might be generous for Varitek, but we can cut him a little bit of slack. We'll also assume that the Red Sox face right-handed pitching approximately twice as often as they face left-handed pitching, for the sake of easy math.
Varitek against lefties (217 plate appearances):
.284 batting average, 8 home runs, 32 RBI
Varitek against righties (217 plate appearances):
.254 batting average, 7 home runs, 27 RBI
Bard against righties (216 plate appearances):
.256 batting average, 4 home runs, 27 RBI
Grand total (650 plate appearances):
.265 batting average, 19 home runs, 86 RBI
Again, those numbers are a little bit generous because we're including Varitek's prime years as well as his decline years. But stacked up against what they got from their catchers last season (.218 batting average, 14 home runs, 55 RBI) they look pretty good. Heck, stacked up against the average American League team a year ago (.258 batting average, 15 home runs, 73 RBI), they don't look so bad.
The Red Sox have stars all over the field. All they need from their catchers is good defense and adequate production at the plate. The right platoon of Varitek and Bard just might get that done.
Friday, January 30, 2009
Varitek signs
According to reports, Jason Varitek has agreed to a one-year deal with both team and player options for a second year. The team won't announce the deal until Varitek completes a physical, which isn't going to happen today. Either way, though, the long saga appears to be over.
So, too, it appears, is the team's work for this winter. Here's the way the 25-man roster appears to shape up right now:
Catcher (2): Jason Varitek, Josh Bard.
Infield (6): Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jed Lowrie, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz.
Outfield (5): J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jason Bay, Rocco Baldelli, Mark Kotsay.
Starting pitchers (5): Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield, Brad Penny.
Bullpen (7): Jonathan Papelbon, Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen, Justin Masterson, Javier Lopez, Ramon Ramirez, Takashi Saito.
John Smoltz, Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden each will be in the mix before the season gets too far along; so too will Wes Littleton and maybe even Junichi Tazawa. Catcher George Kottaras is out of options; his situation in spring training will be one to monitor closely. Other than that, though, this team is ready to open the season.
What do you think? Is that a roster that can win a World Series?
So, too, it appears, is the team's work for this winter. Here's the way the 25-man roster appears to shape up right now:
Catcher (2): Jason Varitek, Josh Bard.
Infield (6): Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jed Lowrie, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz.
Outfield (5): J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jason Bay, Rocco Baldelli, Mark Kotsay.
Starting pitchers (5): Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield, Brad Penny.
Bullpen (7): Jonathan Papelbon, Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen, Justin Masterson, Javier Lopez, Ramon Ramirez, Takashi Saito.
John Smoltz, Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden each will be in the mix before the season gets too far along; so too will Wes Littleton and maybe even Junichi Tazawa. Catcher George Kottaras is out of options; his situation in spring training will be one to monitor closely. Other than that, though, this team is ready to open the season.
What do you think? Is that a roster that can win a World Series?
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Varitek story revisited
There's been quite a bit of backlash over this story in today's Union Leader, a variation of an entry posted earlier this week in this blog. Among the points of constructive criticism:
Ok, let me see if I understand your logic here Mr. MacPherson. Varitek turns down an opportunity to earn $12m for ONE year and now will have to settle for a salary of $8-10m over TWO Years.
And you consider that a win?
Oh that's right, what Tek wants most of all is to play for two more years. If so, he should have taken the $12m this year and then offered up his services in 2010 to any team willing to pay him the Major League minimum. I'm not sure even Scott Boras would attempt to make the case that earning $4m LESS is a win for Varitek.
- CJ Mosca, Hudson
And another one:
CJ has this one correct. Tek is guranteed just 1 year of playing, 2009 and $8 mil. (Even then, he is just guranteed the money, not playing time.) There is no guarnatee that the Red Sox will play him in 2010 even if Tek exercises his player option. They pay him $3 mil. and they can say goodbye.
- B Chaiken, Boston, MA
Here's the big difference, CJ -- if you offer your services up to any major league team for the major-league minimum, what are the odds you're going to play 120 games? Whether it makes sense or not, salaries do factor into playing-time decisions. A team is far more likely to give extra playing time to a catcher they're paying $3 million or $5 million than a catcher they're paying the major-league minimum, particularly if he's on his way out the door.
Had Varitek taken arbitration and then decided he could live with a minimum-salary deal in 2010, isn't there a good chance he would have found himself in a Kevin Cash-type situation -- be it with the Red Sox or elsewhere? If he makes $5 million -- or even $3 million -- with the Red Sox next season, he's going to play at least three days a week no matter who the other catcher on the roster is. The Red Sox aren't going to cut him loose if he exercises his player option; eating money like that is something they've rarely been willing to do, particularly with someone of Varitek's experience and stature. That's the job security we're talking about here.
Brian, are you on Boras' payroll, or are you just bucking for a job with Team Boras. Your argument is inane. Boras started the winter insisting that Varitek was deserving of Posada money (the NYY catcher signed a four-year, $52 million contract last winter)... then he insisted that 'Tek should receive at least three years at $10-$12 million... then he declined arbitration and, in so doing, said the former Sox captain deserved to be paid at least what he received last year for two seasons. Now, at the end of the rainbow, Boras finds an emplty kettle instead of a pot'o'gold. His arrogance HURT his client. Yet folks like you want to dare suggest that this was somehow a 'win'. Two years at $8-$10 million (total) instead of one year at $10-$12; if you ask me -- and CJ and TT and BC -- those numbers add up to a BIG loss, not a win. You must have flunked math in grammar school!
- www.sox1fan.com, Loudon, NH
1. What's "grammar school"?
2. Yes, Boras and Varitek wanted a contract along the lines of Posada, but that clearly was never going to happen. That became obvious very, very quickly. We're talking here about priorities. What was more important to Varitek, an extra year or an extra $4 million on top of the $60 million he's already earned in his career?
Brian, Lad,
I fail to see your logic. V-TEK would have made 10-11 mill for one year. Now he gets 8-10 for two years.
- JakefromWorc, Manhattan Beach, CA 90266
Fans all the time complain that players always are in it for the money, for the maximum dollar, and that they don't care about anything else. What we're suggesting here is that Varitek might not be worried about every last dollar -- since, again, he's banked $60 million already -- and might instead be worried about ensuring himself some regular playing time for two more years rather than one more year. Is that really so inane? Isn't that what fans have been dying to see for years?
I don't know why all you journo's keep saying he would have had a contract for $10-12 million from arbitration. where did you get that? You better read up on the arbitration process. both sides submit a salary figure, and the panel selects that high or low figure, whichever is deemed more fair, in comparison to other players of similar service time and ability. (Please don't argue that Posada was the similar player !!) The Red Sox certainly didn't have to offer $10 million for a 37 year old .220 hitting catcher, and Boras certainly wouldn't have put in $10 mil. If the Red Sox had submitted $5 million and Boras submitted $13 million, which would have been chosen as more fair for the 2008 Jason Varitek?
- Totally Awsum, Outer Banks
The next time you hear about a player who received a pay cut through arbitration, let me know. Here's what the arbitration process takes into consideration:
(1) the player’s contribution to the club in terms of performance and leadership;
(2) the club’s record and its attendance;
(3) any and all of the player’s “special accomplishments,” including All-Star game appearances, awards won, and postseason performance;
(4) the salaries of comparable players in the player’s service-time class and, for players with less than five years of service, the class one year ahead of him.
Nowhere in there is anything about forecasted performance based on age-related decline. You don't think Varitek would have walked away with at least $10 million -- his salary of a season ago -- and maybe $12 million?
MacPherson, it is time to turn in your pen since you clearly are clueless. This was not at all about playing two years, it was about playing two years at $10+ million per year, and Tek and Boras lost.
Had he taken arbitration and the money this year, he certainly would have been welcomed back next year at a lower salary, even if he had to take a much lower salary. The only way that would not happen is if he were simply not good enough to play any more, and we had some young prospect that beat him out for the job. In either case, the money would not have been why he would not play.
- Kevin C, Nashua
I didn't use a pen, actually. It always messes up my computer screen.
If you believe he would have been welcomed back next season, more power to you. But the scenario you outline sounds awfully reasonable, and how likely will the Red Sox be to bring back Varitek again, at 37 years old, unless they already have money committed to him?
Tek would have already accepted the current offer if your theory was true. I think he lets the deadline pass. Here's why:
He has two things in his favor:
1. After June 1 he is truly "free", meaning no compensatory draft pick; and,
2. If the Sox' "Catcher by Committee" fails during Spring Training, his value, and his price, go up.
Imagine the public outcry if the pitching looks bad --"We need Tek"! Look at it from his perspective, there's no rush to meet the Sox' artificial deadline, he can wait it out. Odds are some team will need him.
-Chip from CT, Wilton, CT
Chip makes an interesting point. Varitek easily could let the deadline pass and wait until after the June draft passes, making him a truly unrestricted free agent. At that point, he certainly could jump on board with a team like the Marlins for a prorated salary for the rest of the season -- or, if the Red Sox are panicking about their catching situation, he could indeed get a more favorable offer from the Olde Towne Team at that point.
That's a gamble, of course, just like taking arbitration would have been a gamble. The Red Sox could do just fine with Josh Bard -- or they could go ahead and trade Clay Buchholz for Jarrod Saltalamacchia and be set at catcher for the next decade. And the only teams that would be interested in Varitek in June or July would be contending teams, which cuts down the market -- and if they have any doubts at all about the ability of a 36-year-old catcher to stay sharp during a nine-month offseason, they easily could stay away.
But it's certainly an interesting strategy. Roger Clemens did it, after all. Why couldn't Varitek?
Ok, let me see if I understand your logic here Mr. MacPherson. Varitek turns down an opportunity to earn $12m for ONE year and now will have to settle for a salary of $8-10m over TWO Years.
And you consider that a win?
Oh that's right, what Tek wants most of all is to play for two more years. If so, he should have taken the $12m this year and then offered up his services in 2010 to any team willing to pay him the Major League minimum. I'm not sure even Scott Boras would attempt to make the case that earning $4m LESS is a win for Varitek.
- CJ Mosca, Hudson
And another one:
CJ has this one correct. Tek is guranteed just 1 year of playing, 2009 and $8 mil. (Even then, he is just guranteed the money, not playing time.) There is no guarnatee that the Red Sox will play him in 2010 even if Tek exercises his player option. They pay him $3 mil. and they can say goodbye.
- B Chaiken, Boston, MA
Here's the big difference, CJ -- if you offer your services up to any major league team for the major-league minimum, what are the odds you're going to play 120 games? Whether it makes sense or not, salaries do factor into playing-time decisions. A team is far more likely to give extra playing time to a catcher they're paying $3 million or $5 million than a catcher they're paying the major-league minimum, particularly if he's on his way out the door.
Had Varitek taken arbitration and then decided he could live with a minimum-salary deal in 2010, isn't there a good chance he would have found himself in a Kevin Cash-type situation -- be it with the Red Sox or elsewhere? If he makes $5 million -- or even $3 million -- with the Red Sox next season, he's going to play at least three days a week no matter who the other catcher on the roster is. The Red Sox aren't going to cut him loose if he exercises his player option; eating money like that is something they've rarely been willing to do, particularly with someone of Varitek's experience and stature. That's the job security we're talking about here.
Brian, are you on Boras' payroll, or are you just bucking for a job with Team Boras. Your argument is inane. Boras started the winter insisting that Varitek was deserving of Posada money (the NYY catcher signed a four-year, $52 million contract last winter)... then he insisted that 'Tek should receive at least three years at $10-$12 million... then he declined arbitration and, in so doing, said the former Sox captain deserved to be paid at least what he received last year for two seasons. Now, at the end of the rainbow, Boras finds an emplty kettle instead of a pot'o'gold. His arrogance HURT his client. Yet folks like you want to dare suggest that this was somehow a 'win'. Two years at $8-$10 million (total) instead of one year at $10-$12; if you ask me -- and CJ and TT and BC -- those numbers add up to a BIG loss, not a win. You must have flunked math in grammar school!
- www.sox1fan.com, Loudon, NH
1. What's "grammar school"?
2. Yes, Boras and Varitek wanted a contract along the lines of Posada, but that clearly was never going to happen. That became obvious very, very quickly. We're talking here about priorities. What was more important to Varitek, an extra year or an extra $4 million on top of the $60 million he's already earned in his career?
Brian, Lad,
I fail to see your logic. V-TEK would have made 10-11 mill for one year. Now he gets 8-10 for two years.
- JakefromWorc, Manhattan Beach, CA 90266
Fans all the time complain that players always are in it for the money, for the maximum dollar, and that they don't care about anything else. What we're suggesting here is that Varitek might not be worried about every last dollar -- since, again, he's banked $60 million already -- and might instead be worried about ensuring himself some regular playing time for two more years rather than one more year. Is that really so inane? Isn't that what fans have been dying to see for years?
I don't know why all you journo's keep saying he would have had a contract for $10-12 million from arbitration. where did you get that? You better read up on the arbitration process. both sides submit a salary figure, and the panel selects that high or low figure, whichever is deemed more fair, in comparison to other players of similar service time and ability. (Please don't argue that Posada was the similar player !!) The Red Sox certainly didn't have to offer $10 million for a 37 year old .220 hitting catcher, and Boras certainly wouldn't have put in $10 mil. If the Red Sox had submitted $5 million and Boras submitted $13 million, which would have been chosen as more fair for the 2008 Jason Varitek?
- Totally Awsum, Outer Banks
The next time you hear about a player who received a pay cut through arbitration, let me know. Here's what the arbitration process takes into consideration:
(1) the player’s contribution to the club in terms of performance and leadership;
(2) the club’s record and its attendance;
(3) any and all of the player’s “special accomplishments,” including All-Star game appearances, awards won, and postseason performance;
(4) the salaries of comparable players in the player’s service-time class and, for players with less than five years of service, the class one year ahead of him.
Nowhere in there is anything about forecasted performance based on age-related decline. You don't think Varitek would have walked away with at least $10 million -- his salary of a season ago -- and maybe $12 million?
MacPherson, it is time to turn in your pen since you clearly are clueless. This was not at all about playing two years, it was about playing two years at $10+ million per year, and Tek and Boras lost.
Had he taken arbitration and the money this year, he certainly would have been welcomed back next year at a lower salary, even if he had to take a much lower salary. The only way that would not happen is if he were simply not good enough to play any more, and we had some young prospect that beat him out for the job. In either case, the money would not have been why he would not play.
- Kevin C, Nashua
I didn't use a pen, actually. It always messes up my computer screen.
If you believe he would have been welcomed back next season, more power to you. But the scenario you outline sounds awfully reasonable, and how likely will the Red Sox be to bring back Varitek again, at 37 years old, unless they already have money committed to him?
Tek would have already accepted the current offer if your theory was true. I think he lets the deadline pass. Here's why:
He has two things in his favor:
1. After June 1 he is truly "free", meaning no compensatory draft pick; and,
2. If the Sox' "Catcher by Committee" fails during Spring Training, his value, and his price, go up.
Imagine the public outcry if the pitching looks bad --"We need Tek"! Look at it from his perspective, there's no rush to meet the Sox' artificial deadline, he can wait it out. Odds are some team will need him.
-Chip from CT, Wilton, CT
Chip makes an interesting point. Varitek easily could let the deadline pass and wait until after the June draft passes, making him a truly unrestricted free agent. At that point, he certainly could jump on board with a team like the Marlins for a prorated salary for the rest of the season -- or, if the Red Sox are panicking about their catching situation, he could indeed get a more favorable offer from the Olde Towne Team at that point.
That's a gamble, of course, just like taking arbitration would have been a gamble. The Red Sox could do just fine with Josh Bard -- or they could go ahead and trade Clay Buchholz for Jarrod Saltalamacchia and be set at catcher for the next decade. And the only teams that would be interested in Varitek in June or July would be contending teams, which cuts down the market -- and if they have any doubts at all about the ability of a 36-year-old catcher to stay sharp during a nine-month offseason, they easily could stay away.
But it's certainly an interesting strategy. Roger Clemens did it, after all. Why couldn't Varitek?
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Why couldn't Varitek bounce back?
You might think Jason Varitek is done. He hit .220 last season. He struck out 122 times. He grounded into as many double plays (13) as he hit home runs. His slugging percentage (.359) was 150 points lower than it was during his best season.
On top of that, he plays a position where even stars generally don't age well. Johnny Bench retired at age 35. Mickey Cochrane retired at age 34. Javy Lopez went rapidly downhill at age 35 and didn't play again after that. Ivan Rodriguez is having a hard time finding a job at age 37.
But those who do stick around don't necessarily see their statistics slide steadily downhill once they get to 35 years old. Many, in fact, do see an upsurge for a year or two before fading again.
Varitek
(career): .263 batting average/.346 on-base percentage/.439 slugging percentage
(age 35): .255/.367/.421
(age 36): .220/.313/.359
Mike Piazza
(career): .308/.377/.545
(age 35): .266/.362/.444
(age 36): .251/.326/.452
(age 37): .283/.342/.501
(age 38): .275/.313/.414 (in 309 at-bats)
Carlton Fisk
(career): .269/.341/.457
(age 35): .281/.355/.518
(age 36): .231/.289/.468
(age 37): .238/.320/.488
(age 38): .221/.263/.337
(age 39): .256/.321/.460
(age 40): .277/.377/.542
(age 41): .293/.356/.475
(age 42): .285/.378/.451
Elston Howard
(career): .274/.322/.427
(age 35): .313/.371/.455
(age 36): .233/.278/.345
(age 37): .256/.317/.356
(age 38): .178/.233/.244
For Fisk, it took a little longer -- and a few more years of scuffling. For Piazza and Howard, though, a year or two of relatively dismal production did give way to an upswing at the plate. It wasn't much; it wasn't the All-Star production to which their teams had been accustomed.
But there still was something there. Varitek isn't going to hit .290 with 25 home runs next season -- but he doesn't have to hit .220 again, either. There is precedent for a 36- or 37-year-old catcher finding his old stroke one more time and doing more home-run hitting than double-play grounding.
On top of that, he plays a position where even stars generally don't age well. Johnny Bench retired at age 35. Mickey Cochrane retired at age 34. Javy Lopez went rapidly downhill at age 35 and didn't play again after that. Ivan Rodriguez is having a hard time finding a job at age 37.
But those who do stick around don't necessarily see their statistics slide steadily downhill once they get to 35 years old. Many, in fact, do see an upsurge for a year or two before fading again.
Varitek
(career): .263 batting average/.346 on-base percentage/.439 slugging percentage
(age 35): .255/.367/.421
(age 36): .220/.313/.359
Mike Piazza
(career): .308/.377/.545
(age 35): .266/.362/.444
(age 36): .251/.326/.452
(age 37): .283/.342/.501
(age 38): .275/.313/.414 (in 309 at-bats)
Carlton Fisk
(career): .269/.341/.457
(age 35): .281/.355/.518
(age 36): .231/.289/.468
(age 37): .238/.320/.488
(age 38): .221/.263/.337
(age 39): .256/.321/.460
(age 40): .277/.377/.542
(age 41): .293/.356/.475
(age 42): .285/.378/.451
Elston Howard
(career): .274/.322/.427
(age 35): .313/.371/.455
(age 36): .233/.278/.345
(age 37): .256/.317/.356
(age 38): .178/.233/.244
For Fisk, it took a little longer -- and a few more years of scuffling. For Piazza and Howard, though, a year or two of relatively dismal production did give way to an upswing at the plate. It wasn't much; it wasn't the All-Star production to which their teams had been accustomed.
But there still was something there. Varitek isn't going to hit .290 with 25 home runs next season -- but he doesn't have to hit .220 again, either. There is precedent for a 36- or 37-year-old catcher finding his old stroke one more time and doing more home-run hitting than double-play grounding.
Friday, January 23, 2009
Maybe Varitek wasn't as dumb as they're saying
Jason Varitek has taken a pounding this week; he's being raked over the coals for admitting that he didn't know a team would have to forfeit a first-round draft pick to obtain his services. Because that rule has almost eliminated any demand for his services -- teams wouldn't sign him to a contract for $20 and a free catcher's mitt if they still had to give up that draft pick -- Varitek's decision to forgo salary arbitration looks categorically stupid.
Critics of Varitek's decision, however, have the benefit of hindsight -- something Varitek didn't have when he originally made his decision.
Had Varitek accepted arbitration, he would have been locked into a one-year contract, albeit a one-year contract in the range of $10 million a year. For a fading catcher who will turn 37 years old in the first week of the 2009 season, a one-year deal might have been the last contract he ever signed. If he could have found a team to give him two years or, even better, two years with a vesting option, he would have had job security for an extra season or two. That, for someone like Varitek, is worth far more than money. The different between $5 million and $10 million is insignificant when you've already made $50 million in your career. The chance to have a contract and, thus, a job that's almost guaranteed -- that's worth far more.
Varitek is being criticized for failing to understand the system, for failing to understand that the forfeiture of a first-round draft pick is enough to scare teams away from him. The prevailing wisdom now is that Varitek -- and agent Scott Boras -- should have seen this coming.
But how could they?
Draft picks have gained value in recent years as more and more teams have embraced the strategies outlined in the book "Moneyball." Some teams have collected pending free agents like casino chips, waiting to cash them in for draft picks after the season. Other teams have opted not to trade their own pending free agents at the July deadline, feeling that the reward of two draft picks was worth more than any package of minor leaguers other teams could put together.
But the idea of forfeiting draft picks has never had as much of an impact as they've had with Varitek.
Skeptical? Look at the Type A free agents -- players for whom teams have forfeited first-round draft picks -- that have signed contracts in recent years:
2008
* Tom Glavine
* Torii Hunter
(Aaron Rowand, Francisco Cordero and Scott Linebrink also were Type A free agents, but as the Giants, Reds and White Sox were picking inside the top 15, their first-round picks were protected. Those teams surrendered second-round picks instead.)
2007
* Frank Catalanotto
* Carlos Lee
* Julio Lugo
* Jason Schmidt
* Gary Matthews Jr.
* Moises Alou
(Alfonso Soriano, Danys Baez, Rich Aurelia, Jeff Suppan, David Dellucci, Justin Speier, Woody Williams, Barry Zito, Roberto Hernandez, Dave Roberts and Chad Bradford all likewise were Type A free agents, but thanks either to the top 15 rule or the fact that each team can only surrender one first-round pick and thus ensuing free-agent signees cost them a second- or third-round pick, they didn't cost their teams a first-round pick.)
2006
* Billy Wagner
* Tom Gordon
* Esteban Loaiza (a Type B free agent)
* Paul Byrd (a Type B free agent)
* Jeff Weaver
* Johnny Damon
(Rafael Furcal, Ramon Hernandez, Matt Morris, Bob Howry, B.J. Ryan, Kyle Farnsworth, Scott Eyre, Tim Worrell and Bill Mueller were Type A free agents who turned out not to cost their team a first-round pick and instead a second- or third-round pick.)
Look at some of those names. Tom Glavine was about to turn 42 years old when he signed his contract. Tom Gordon had just turned 38 and would see his ERA jump by nearly a run after signed his. Frank Catalanotto was, well, Frank Catalanatto.
If Catalanotto -- who was nontendered by the Rangers four years earlier -- could get a contract as a Type A free agent, why couldn't Varitek? How could Varitek have guessed that the market for talented baseball players would go so far south that not one of 30 big-league teams would give up a first-round pick -- keeping in mind that first-round picks turn out to be busts in the ballpark of half the time -- for his services?
He took a risk, sure. But to claim that turning down arbitration in seach a two-year deal was colossally stupid is an unfair exercise in 20-20 hindsight. There's no way anyone could have known that teams suddenly would prize one draft pick more than they would value the experience Varitek would bring to a clubhouse and a pitching staff.
Critics of Varitek's decision, however, have the benefit of hindsight -- something Varitek didn't have when he originally made his decision.
Had Varitek accepted arbitration, he would have been locked into a one-year contract, albeit a one-year contract in the range of $10 million a year. For a fading catcher who will turn 37 years old in the first week of the 2009 season, a one-year deal might have been the last contract he ever signed. If he could have found a team to give him two years or, even better, two years with a vesting option, he would have had job security for an extra season or two. That, for someone like Varitek, is worth far more than money. The different between $5 million and $10 million is insignificant when you've already made $50 million in your career. The chance to have a contract and, thus, a job that's almost guaranteed -- that's worth far more.
Varitek is being criticized for failing to understand the system, for failing to understand that the forfeiture of a first-round draft pick is enough to scare teams away from him. The prevailing wisdom now is that Varitek -- and agent Scott Boras -- should have seen this coming.
But how could they?
Draft picks have gained value in recent years as more and more teams have embraced the strategies outlined in the book "Moneyball." Some teams have collected pending free agents like casino chips, waiting to cash them in for draft picks after the season. Other teams have opted not to trade their own pending free agents at the July deadline, feeling that the reward of two draft picks was worth more than any package of minor leaguers other teams could put together.
But the idea of forfeiting draft picks has never had as much of an impact as they've had with Varitek.
Skeptical? Look at the Type A free agents -- players for whom teams have forfeited first-round draft picks -- that have signed contracts in recent years:
2008
* Tom Glavine
* Torii Hunter
(Aaron Rowand, Francisco Cordero and Scott Linebrink also were Type A free agents, but as the Giants, Reds and White Sox were picking inside the top 15, their first-round picks were protected. Those teams surrendered second-round picks instead.)
2007
* Frank Catalanotto
* Carlos Lee
* Julio Lugo
* Jason Schmidt
* Gary Matthews Jr.
* Moises Alou
(Alfonso Soriano, Danys Baez, Rich Aurelia, Jeff Suppan, David Dellucci, Justin Speier, Woody Williams, Barry Zito, Roberto Hernandez, Dave Roberts and Chad Bradford all likewise were Type A free agents, but thanks either to the top 15 rule or the fact that each team can only surrender one first-round pick and thus ensuing free-agent signees cost them a second- or third-round pick, they didn't cost their teams a first-round pick.)
2006
* Billy Wagner
* Tom Gordon
* Esteban Loaiza (a Type B free agent)
* Paul Byrd (a Type B free agent)
* Jeff Weaver
* Johnny Damon
(Rafael Furcal, Ramon Hernandez, Matt Morris, Bob Howry, B.J. Ryan, Kyle Farnsworth, Scott Eyre, Tim Worrell and Bill Mueller were Type A free agents who turned out not to cost their team a first-round pick and instead a second- or third-round pick.)
Look at some of those names. Tom Glavine was about to turn 42 years old when he signed his contract. Tom Gordon had just turned 38 and would see his ERA jump by nearly a run after signed his. Frank Catalanotto was, well, Frank Catalanatto.
If Catalanotto -- who was nontendered by the Rangers four years earlier -- could get a contract as a Type A free agent, why couldn't Varitek? How could Varitek have guessed that the market for talented baseball players would go so far south that not one of 30 big-league teams would give up a first-round pick -- keeping in mind that first-round picks turn out to be busts in the ballpark of half the time -- for his services?
He took a risk, sure. But to claim that turning down arbitration in seach a two-year deal was colossally stupid is an unfair exercise in 20-20 hindsight. There's no way anyone could have known that teams suddenly would prize one draft pick more than they would value the experience Varitek would bring to a clubhouse and a pitching staff.
Friday, January 16, 2009
No need to panic over catching situation
No, nothing has happened yet. If the season started today, George Kottaras and (gulp) Josh Bard would be the Red Sox's top two catchers.
But the season doesn't start today. Pitchers and catchers don't report for almost a month.
And that's why it doesn't make any sense to keep worrying about who's going to catch the Olde Towne Team's deep pitching staff.
Jason Varitek isn't getting any offers. He just isn't. It's not fair to him; he's a victim of the collective bargaining agreement and whoever it was that labeled him a "Type A" free agent despite a season in which his swing took as long as an Alewife-to-Braintree "T" ride. Any team that signs him would have to relinquish a first-round draft pick, a far steeper price to pay than any salary upon which the two sides agree.
Any team, that is, except Boston.
Varitek has the right to wait as long as he can to see if any other team gets desperate -- or, for that matter, if the Red Sox get desperate. But there's no reason to get desperate. The season doesn't start today. The season doesn't start for almost a month and a half. Varitek could sit around through half of spring training to give teams one last chance to pony up enough money to pry him away from the Red Sox. He's presumably staying in shape and taking swings in the offseason; all he'd need to do is get to know the pitchers with which he'd be working.
And that would be almost a non-issue if he returned to the Red Sox. All he'd need to do would be to get to know Brad Penny and John Smoltz. A veteran like Varitek doesn't need six weeks of spring training.
Both sides are waiting to see if the other will blink. Trouble is, Varitek is the one with no leverage. Eventually, he'll have to blink. And that's why there's no reason to panic about not having an established catcher on the roster at this point of the offseason -- the Red Sox have their catcher right where they want him.
But the season doesn't start today. Pitchers and catchers don't report for almost a month.
And that's why it doesn't make any sense to keep worrying about who's going to catch the Olde Towne Team's deep pitching staff.
Jason Varitek isn't getting any offers. He just isn't. It's not fair to him; he's a victim of the collective bargaining agreement and whoever it was that labeled him a "Type A" free agent despite a season in which his swing took as long as an Alewife-to-Braintree "T" ride. Any team that signs him would have to relinquish a first-round draft pick, a far steeper price to pay than any salary upon which the two sides agree.
Any team, that is, except Boston.
Varitek has the right to wait as long as he can to see if any other team gets desperate -- or, for that matter, if the Red Sox get desperate. But there's no reason to get desperate. The season doesn't start today. The season doesn't start for almost a month and a half. Varitek could sit around through half of spring training to give teams one last chance to pony up enough money to pry him away from the Red Sox. He's presumably staying in shape and taking swings in the offseason; all he'd need to do is get to know the pitchers with which he'd be working.
And that would be almost a non-issue if he returned to the Red Sox. All he'd need to do would be to get to know Brad Penny and John Smoltz. A veteran like Varitek doesn't need six weeks of spring training.
Both sides are waiting to see if the other will blink. Trouble is, Varitek is the one with no leverage. Eventually, he'll have to blink. And that's why there's no reason to panic about not having an established catcher on the roster at this point of the offseason -- the Red Sox have their catcher right where they want him.
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Bard signing raises questions about Varitek, Wakefield
No one, apparently, seems to be wondering about the Red Sox's signing of catcher Josh Bard to a one-year deal. Bard, we all remember, was supposed to be a replacement for Doug Mirabelli as Tim Wakefield's personal catcher; he instead was a disaster and was shipped to San Diego for Mirabelli in a deal that cost the Red Sox reliever Cla Meredith.
It's almost baffling that the Red Sox would sign Bard again, especially to anything more than a minor-league contract or the major-league minimum. We already know he can't catch the knuckleball. And if he can't catch the knuckleball, why would the Red Sox sign him?
Some possibilities:
Jason Varitek, a free agent for whom there seems to be next to no market, could return and catch Wakefield.
This makes some semblance of sense; the Red Sox might have decided that it's not worth having a catcher like Mirabelli or Kevin Cash who provides next to nothing offensively -- particularly since Wakefield is the sort of pitcher for whom you need to score as many runs as possible. But Varitek has only caught
The last time Varitek caught Wakefield more than once in the regular season was 2005 -- and in opponents' 112 plate appearances against that battery, they hit .311 and reched base at a .432 clip. In their 831 plate appearances with Mirabelli catching, opponents hit .237 and reached base at a .290 clip.
Varitek hasn't caught Wakefield more than four times in a season since 2002. It's conceivable the Red Sox could try it again, but it seems an odd thing to do at this point in his career.
Then again, maybe the Red Sox still anticipate trading for another young catcher (i.e. Jarrod Saltalamacchia) and have faith that he could catch Wakefield better than Bard ever did.
Tim Wakefield's days are numbered in the Red Sox rotation.
This is the other one. The Red Sox picked up Tim Wakefield's perpetual $4 million option after the season because it made too much sense not to do so; anytime you can get a useful arm for $4 million, you do it.
But that doesn't necessarily mean he's guaranteed a spot in the rotation, either. As it stands now, there are seven or eight candidates for those five spots, and Wakefield is the only one who requires a catcher with a unique talent -- which apparently also requires a unique inability to hit better than .230 -- behind the plate.
Jon Lester, Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka are assured of their spots. The last two spots, though, will come down to Wakefield, Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden, Justin Masterson and the about-to-be-signed Brad Penny. If Penny is healthy, he's an All-Star-caliber pitcher. If Buchholz shows in spring training he's past the jitters of a season ago, he's capable of making a Lester-type leap. And if both pitch the way they're capable of pitching, there might not be a spot for Wakefield.
What then? Do they put him in the bullpen? Long relief? An ego-bruising trip to Pawtucket? Or does he ride off into the sunset of his career -- and thus make Josh Bard's inability to catch the knuckleball completely irrelevant?
It's almost baffling that the Red Sox would sign Bard again, especially to anything more than a minor-league contract or the major-league minimum. We already know he can't catch the knuckleball. And if he can't catch the knuckleball, why would the Red Sox sign him?
Some possibilities:
Jason Varitek, a free agent for whom there seems to be next to no market, could return and catch Wakefield.
This makes some semblance of sense; the Red Sox might have decided that it's not worth having a catcher like Mirabelli or Kevin Cash who provides next to nothing offensively -- particularly since Wakefield is the sort of pitcher for whom you need to score as many runs as possible. But Varitek has only caught
The last time Varitek caught Wakefield more than once in the regular season was 2005 -- and in opponents' 112 plate appearances against that battery, they hit .311 and reched base at a .432 clip. In their 831 plate appearances with Mirabelli catching, opponents hit .237 and reached base at a .290 clip.
Varitek hasn't caught Wakefield more than four times in a season since 2002. It's conceivable the Red Sox could try it again, but it seems an odd thing to do at this point in his career.
Then again, maybe the Red Sox still anticipate trading for another young catcher (i.e. Jarrod Saltalamacchia) and have faith that he could catch Wakefield better than Bard ever did.
Tim Wakefield's days are numbered in the Red Sox rotation.
This is the other one. The Red Sox picked up Tim Wakefield's perpetual $4 million option after the season because it made too much sense not to do so; anytime you can get a useful arm for $4 million, you do it.
But that doesn't necessarily mean he's guaranteed a spot in the rotation, either. As it stands now, there are seven or eight candidates for those five spots, and Wakefield is the only one who requires a catcher with a unique talent -- which apparently also requires a unique inability to hit better than .230 -- behind the plate.
Jon Lester, Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka are assured of their spots. The last two spots, though, will come down to Wakefield, Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden, Justin Masterson and the about-to-be-signed Brad Penny. If Penny is healthy, he's an All-Star-caliber pitcher. If Buchholz shows in spring training he's past the jitters of a season ago, he's capable of making a Lester-type leap. And if both pitch the way they're capable of pitching, there might not be a spot for Wakefield.
What then? Do they put him in the bullpen? Long relief? An ego-bruising trip to Pawtucket? Or does he ride off into the sunset of his career -- and thus make Josh Bard's inability to catch the knuckleball completely irrelevant?
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Firing up the Hot Stove: Catcher
The Red Sox packed up the clubhouse on Monday, which means it's time for the hot-stove season to begin in earnest. Here at One If By Land headquarters, we'll take a position-by-position at what Theo Epstein and the Red Sox will be thinking about as the offseason gets under way.
The natural place to start is catcher, also the topic of today's story in the Union Leader. It might be where the Red Sox make their biggest decision.
Last season
Jason Varitek: .220 (.313 OBP), 13 HR, 43 RBI
Kevin Cash: .225 (.309 OBP), 3 HR, 15 RBI
Dave Ross (split between Cincinnati and Boston): .225 (.369 OBP), 3 HR, 13 RBI
George Kottaras (at Triple-A Pawtucket): .243 (.348 OBP), 22 HR, 65 RBI
Next season
Varitek is a free agent; when reporters asked after Game 7 about his status for next season, his voice almost appeared to be breaking when he said, "I would rather not talk about it." After such a miserable season at the plate, a season in which the 4-6-3 double play in the eighth inning became far too routine, the knee-jerk reaction is to assume he won't be back.
But who else is out there? More importantly, who else is out there that would be a significant enough upgrade with the bat to offset what Red Sox pitchers would lose in terms of game-planning and steadiness behind the plate? Some get tired of hearing about how his leadership impacts the team, but the more you hear teammates talk about it, the more you have no choice but to believe it.
"It really falls on 'Tek," budding ace Jon Lester said after his win in Game 4 of the ALDS against Los Angeles. "He does a good job of keeping a good pace back there and calling a good game."
Said second baseman Dustin Pedroia, the type of player who could inherit the 'C' eventually, “When he walks in the door at one o’clock in the afternoon, his presence everyone feels. He doesn’t even have to say anything. That’s the type of teammate he is and what kind of player he is. Everyone looks to him for advice and looks up to him. That’s why he’s the captain of our team. He sets the tone.”
The free-agent options are sketchy; the options in the farm system are unproven. Epstein could try to trade for one of Texas' two young catchers (Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden), but either would cost the Red Sox someone like Michael Bowden or Clay Buchholz, and that might be too steep of a price to pay if Kottaras or one of the other internal options will be ready in two years.
What they'll do
Look for the Red Sox to offer Varitek a short-term deal with the understanding that Kottaras will see fairly regular playing time. Someone will have to catch Tim Wakefield; in an ideal world, though, Kottaras would play twice a week and Varitek three times -- or possibly the other way around. It's time to start easing someone else into that position, but there's no one else in the pipeline who's proven he can do what Varitek can do.
But if he's not willing to do that, if his professional pride leads him either to another team where he can start or to retirement, it would be easy to understand. In that case, the Red Sox might either have to go with a Cash-Kottaras platoon or pick from one of the lousy options available via the free-agent market.
The natural place to start is catcher, also the topic of today's story in the Union Leader. It might be where the Red Sox make their biggest decision.
Last season
Jason Varitek: .220 (.313 OBP), 13 HR, 43 RBI
Kevin Cash: .225 (.309 OBP), 3 HR, 15 RBI
Dave Ross (split between Cincinnati and Boston): .225 (.369 OBP), 3 HR, 13 RBI
George Kottaras (at Triple-A Pawtucket): .243 (.348 OBP), 22 HR, 65 RBI
Next season
Varitek is a free agent; when reporters asked after Game 7 about his status for next season, his voice almost appeared to be breaking when he said, "I would rather not talk about it." After such a miserable season at the plate, a season in which the 4-6-3 double play in the eighth inning became far too routine, the knee-jerk reaction is to assume he won't be back.
But who else is out there? More importantly, who else is out there that would be a significant enough upgrade with the bat to offset what Red Sox pitchers would lose in terms of game-planning and steadiness behind the plate? Some get tired of hearing about how his leadership impacts the team, but the more you hear teammates talk about it, the more you have no choice but to believe it.
"It really falls on 'Tek," budding ace Jon Lester said after his win in Game 4 of the ALDS against Los Angeles. "He does a good job of keeping a good pace back there and calling a good game."
Said second baseman Dustin Pedroia, the type of player who could inherit the 'C' eventually, “When he walks in the door at one o’clock in the afternoon, his presence everyone feels. He doesn’t even have to say anything. That’s the type of teammate he is and what kind of player he is. Everyone looks to him for advice and looks up to him. That’s why he’s the captain of our team. He sets the tone.”
The free-agent options are sketchy; the options in the farm system are unproven. Epstein could try to trade for one of Texas' two young catchers (Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden), but either would cost the Red Sox someone like Michael Bowden or Clay Buchholz, and that might be too steep of a price to pay if Kottaras or one of the other internal options will be ready in two years.
What they'll do
Look for the Red Sox to offer Varitek a short-term deal with the understanding that Kottaras will see fairly regular playing time. Someone will have to catch Tim Wakefield; in an ideal world, though, Kottaras would play twice a week and Varitek three times -- or possibly the other way around. It's time to start easing someone else into that position, but there's no one else in the pipeline who's proven he can do what Varitek can do.
But if he's not willing to do that, if his professional pride leads him either to another team where he can start or to retirement, it would be easy to understand. In that case, the Red Sox might either have to go with a Cash-Kottaras platoon or pick from one of the lousy options available via the free-agent market.
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Francona not worried about Varitek -- or fans booing Varitek
Jason Varitek is one of three Red Sox regulars to have no hits through three games of the American League Championship Series. Jacoby Ellsbury has been replaced in center field for Game 4 by Coco Crisp, and Ortiz either is fighting a wrist injury or is a ticking time bomb waiting to explode.
Varitek, though, has scuffled all season; he hit .183 in September and now is 3-for-24 (.125) since the postseason began. One has to wonder if the 36-year-old catcher's bat ever will be the same again.
"Everybody in that clubhouse, they want to do so much to help us win, and he's at the top of the list," manager Terry Francona said during his pregame media availability. "You have to fight through it, and he's a fighter."
Scattered boos even rained down on Varitek after he popped to first to end the fourth inning on Monday. Francona, though, said he neither heard nor would have been bothered by that reaction.
"I didn't pay for the ticket," he said. "When you buy a ticket, you have the right, basically, to voice your opinion as long as you don't go over the line. That wouldn't be my personal style, but if people pay for the ticket, they can do whatever they want."
Varitek, though, has scuffled all season; he hit .183 in September and now is 3-for-24 (.125) since the postseason began. One has to wonder if the 36-year-old catcher's bat ever will be the same again.
"Everybody in that clubhouse, they want to do so much to help us win, and he's at the top of the list," manager Terry Francona said during his pregame media availability. "You have to fight through it, and he's a fighter."
Scattered boos even rained down on Varitek after he popped to first to end the fourth inning on Monday. Francona, though, said he neither heard nor would have been bothered by that reaction.
"I didn't pay for the ticket," he said. "When you buy a ticket, you have the right, basically, to voice your opinion as long as you don't go over the line. That wouldn't be my personal style, but if people pay for the ticket, they can do whatever they want."
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
