So the Mike Lowell trade reportedly is not going to go through. Lowell will undergo surgery on a torn ligament in his thumb -- a surgery that requires six to eight weeks of recovery time -- and thus likely will be with the Red Sox when spring training opens in February.
(It's natural to ask if the Red Sox would have known about the thumb injury at all if they hadn't tried to trade Lowell -- and if the injury thus would have become a factor in February rather than November. There's no answer to that question yet.)
The first step for Theo Epstein and Terry Francona will be to soothe the egos involved. ("Ha ha! It was all a joke! Max Ramirez isn't even a real person!") The second step, though, will be to figure out a way to juggle playing time both to keep everyone happy and to ensure the Red Sox will be as productive as possible both at the plate and in the field. One of those priorities is more important -- and it's not the former.
Among the strategies they might use to make it work:
1. David Ortiz won't play against lefties, period.
That's an easy one. Ortiz might be the most prolific designated hitter in the history of the franchise. In his career, though, he's OPS'ed almost 150 points higher against righties (.964) than against lefties (.819), and he's OPS'ed under .800 against lefties in each of the last two seasons. Against righties, on the other hand, Ortiz OPS'ed .828 even during the worst season of his Red Sox career.
Lowell, on the other hand, hits lefties: His career OPS is 50 points higher against lefties (.850) than against righties (.798). In the last three years, he's OPS'ed .849, .961 and .867 against lefthanded pitching. He even has a .429 career on-base percentage against Yankees lefty Andy Pettitte.
There's no reason Lowell shouldn't be the designated hitter -- at minimum -- when a lefthanded pitcher is on the mound.
2. Lowell's defensive abilities have to be evaluated.
One of these UZR numbers is not like the other:
2006: plus-7.7
2007: plus-7.3
2008: plus-11.1
2009: minus-10.4
It's clear the hip surgery Lowell underwent a year ago affected his range in the field last season. It's certainly not clear that a year of recovery time will bring back an athleticism and a range that once was well above average -- especially since Lowell will turn 36 in February.
But unless the Red Sox plan on employing two full-time designated hitters -- hint: a 25-man roster doesn't allow for two full-time designated hitters -- the Red Sox have to see what they can get out of him. If he's got some range of motion, he could play third base on a limited basis with Kevin Youkilis moving back across the diamond to first base. If he has less range of motion, it might be worth throwing a first baseman's mitt at him and seeing if it sticks.
Either scenario, of course, would mean that Casey Kotchman would take a seat against lefties even though he doesn't have a severe lefty-right split. That brings us to ...
3. Someone has to make a decision on Kotchman.
If the Red Sox don't see the slick-fielding first baseman as playing a significant role next season, it makes no sense to keep him and an arbitration award around $4 million on the roster. A 12-man pitching staff leaves room for four bench players:
* A backup catcher (Jason Varitek)
* A utility infielder (Jed Lowrie)
* A lefthanded hitting outfielder (Jeremy Hermida)
* A righthanded hitting outfielder (TBD)
Unless the Red Sox want to forgo a fifth outfielder -- and thus leave themselves with Mike Cameron as their only outfielder who swings righthanded -- there's not really room for an extra infielder who only plays first base.
Kotchman will turn 27 in February. He's headed into his prime. He has to have some value to someone. The Red Sox either have to play him or move him.
Showing posts with label kotchman. Show all posts
Showing posts with label kotchman. Show all posts
Saturday, December 19, 2009
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Next season's batting order
Well, that should just about do it.
The Red Sox have their Opening Day lineup.
Jacoby Ellsbury, CF (L)
Dustin Pedroia, 2B (R)
Victor Martinez, C (S)
Kevin Youkilis, 3B (R)
David Ortiz, DH (L)
Mike Cameron, LF (R)
J.D. Drew, RF (L)
Marco Scutaro, SS (R)
Casey Kotchman, 1B (L)
A couple of notes:
* J.D. Drew and David Ortiz aren't going to hit back-to-back in any lineup Terry Francona writes out. Francona makes a point of breaking up his lefties, especially his lefties in the middle of the batting order. Cameron is a natural fit in the No. 6 hole between Ortiz and Drew, and whether Ortiz or Drew hits fifth might be determined by how good each guy looks coming out of spring training.
* Barring any dramatic moves -- and the Red Sox appear to be out of the running for Adrian Beltre -- Casey Kotchman will open next season at first base for the Red Sox. Kotchman, who swings lefthanded, either would have to hit back-to-back with Drew at No. 7/8 in the batting order or with Jacoby Ellsbury at No. 9/1. A cursory look at each guy's career righty-lefty splits tells the story:
Drew: .925 OPS vs RHP/.804 OPS vs. LHP
Ellsbury: .764/.764
Kotchman: .751/.712
Ortiz: .964/.819
If an opponent is going to bring in a southpaw specialist to face back-to-back lefties in the Red Sox lineup, Francona would want him to do so against Kotchman and Ellsbury -- the two with the least dramatic platoon splits. Ellsbury actually has exactly the same OPS against lefties as he does against righties.
The bottom of the Red Sox lineup for much of last season usually consisted of Nick Green and Jason Varitek. Kotchman has shown flashes of being an on-base guy -- he OBP'ed .354 with the Atlanta Braves before he was traded and relegated to part-time duty -- and Scutaro always has been. The Red Sox might not lead the major leagues in home runs, but they certainly don't have any automatic outs in their lineup.
The Red Sox have their Opening Day lineup.
Jacoby Ellsbury, CF (L)
Dustin Pedroia, 2B (R)
Victor Martinez, C (S)
Kevin Youkilis, 3B (R)
David Ortiz, DH (L)
Mike Cameron, LF (R)
J.D. Drew, RF (L)
Marco Scutaro, SS (R)
Casey Kotchman, 1B (L)
A couple of notes:
* J.D. Drew and David Ortiz aren't going to hit back-to-back in any lineup Terry Francona writes out. Francona makes a point of breaking up his lefties, especially his lefties in the middle of the batting order. Cameron is a natural fit in the No. 6 hole between Ortiz and Drew, and whether Ortiz or Drew hits fifth might be determined by how good each guy looks coming out of spring training.
* Barring any dramatic moves -- and the Red Sox appear to be out of the running for Adrian Beltre -- Casey Kotchman will open next season at first base for the Red Sox. Kotchman, who swings lefthanded, either would have to hit back-to-back with Drew at No. 7/8 in the batting order or with Jacoby Ellsbury at No. 9/1. A cursory look at each guy's career righty-lefty splits tells the story:
Drew: .925 OPS vs RHP/.804 OPS vs. LHP
Ellsbury: .764/.764
Kotchman: .751/.712
Ortiz: .964/.819
If an opponent is going to bring in a southpaw specialist to face back-to-back lefties in the Red Sox lineup, Francona would want him to do so against Kotchman and Ellsbury -- the two with the least dramatic platoon splits. Ellsbury actually has exactly the same OPS against lefties as he does against righties.
The bottom of the Red Sox lineup for much of last season usually consisted of Nick Green and Jason Varitek. Kotchman has shown flashes of being an on-base guy -- he OBP'ed .354 with the Atlanta Braves before he was traded and relegated to part-time duty -- and Scutaro always has been. The Red Sox might not lead the major leagues in home runs, but they certainly don't have any automatic outs in their lineup.
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Lowell deal gives Red Sox tremendous infield 'D'
And that's even without a move to sign Adrian Beltre.
Mike Lowell reportedly has been shipped to Texas in a deal for minor-leaguer Max Ramirez, a catcher/first base-type who can hit for power and who could probably be ready for a platoon with David Ortiz this spring.
(Red Sox blog Surviving Grady might put the Ramirez acquisition in the best terms: "This is, of course, part of Theo's "If I can't have Hanley Ramirez, by God, I'll sign everyone else in baseball named Ramirez" master plan, which just keeps picking up speed.")
Theo Epstein has plenty of time to keep making moves.
If this is his final move of the offseason that involves his infield, though, he's turned a below-average defensive infield into a tremendous defensive infield. A year ago, the offensive-minded Red Sox saw opposing batters hit .244 when they hit the ball on the ground -- a tick above the American League average of .240. The defensive-minded Seattle Mariners, playing most of the season with Beltre at third base, saw opponents hit .227 when they hit the ball on the ground.
Oh, and the move hasn't cost the Red Sox too much at the plate, either. Consider this player-by-player comparison:
Player A, 2008-09: .282/.337/.468 (.805)
Player B, 2008-09: .270/.333/.398 (.730)
Player A is Mike Lowell.
Player B is Casey Kotchman, who bounced around between three teams and had to adapt to a reserve role during the second half of last season. Their on-base percentages still are almost identical.
Kotchman, of course, would play first base every day for the Red Sox if the season started today, and Kevin Youkilis would play third base every day. Dustin Pedroia would play second base, and Marco Scutaro would play shortstop. (Not the other way around.)
Kotchman is an elite defensive first baseman, according to his Fielding Bible numbers (from BillJamesOnline.net):
2007: 18 runs saved (2nd in major leagues)
2008: 10 runs saved (5th in major leagues)
2009: 7 runs saved (7th in major leagues)
(Keep in mind Kotchman played only sparingly over the final two months of the season, too, after his July 31 trade to the Red Sox.)
Only Albert Pujols has consistently been a better defensive first baseman over the last three seasons than Kotchman.
And this is the worst-case scenario.
It's more likely that Epstein already has the parameters of a deal with slick-fielding third baseman Adrian Beltre, a move that would upgrade the Red Sox defensively even more. Youkilis then would move back to first base, and the Red Sox would have four infielders who are among the best in baseball at their respective positions.
Merry Christmas, Clay Buchholz.
Beltre, as previously discussed here, is not a crippling downgrade from Lowell at the plate. During the last two seasons, Beltre has an OPS of .739 -- but he played his home games at Safeco Field, a stadium that does little to reward the power of righthanded hitters.
(This is why the Mariners don't seem to see Jason Bay as a fit.)
The upgrade from Lowell to Beltre in the field seems to be more than enough to compensate for the difference. Beltre was credited with having saved 21 runs last season by John Dewan's Fielding Bible system, and Lowell was charged with having cost the Red Sox 17 runs last season. That's a difference of almost 40 runs -- or, since 10 runs is roughly equivalent to a win, almost four wins.
That's why, according to FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement statistics, Beltre would be an enormous upgrade on Lowell even without a bounce-back year at the plate:
Lowell, 2008/09: 3.2/1.2 -- 4.4 WAR
Beltre, 2008/09: 4.1/2.4 -- 6.5 WAR
What's most interesting is the fact that the Red Sox will absorb so much money to get rid of Lowell. The veteran still had plenty of value as a platoon-style designated hitter with David Ortiz -- albeit at the cost of a roster spot -- but Epstein (and Terry Francona) must have believed Lowell wouldn't be his same positive clubhouse presence if he was relegated to such a role.
Either that, or Epstein has so much respect for Lowell that he made sure to find him a landing where he could play on something of a regular basis.
He probably won't play much third base for Texas.
As long as he's not playing third base for Boston, though, the Red Sox are going to be a significantly better defensive team.
Mike Lowell reportedly has been shipped to Texas in a deal for minor-leaguer Max Ramirez, a catcher/first base-type who can hit for power and who could probably be ready for a platoon with David Ortiz this spring.
(Red Sox blog Surviving Grady might put the Ramirez acquisition in the best terms: "This is, of course, part of Theo's "If I can't have Hanley Ramirez, by God, I'll sign everyone else in baseball named Ramirez" master plan, which just keeps picking up speed.")
Theo Epstein has plenty of time to keep making moves.
If this is his final move of the offseason that involves his infield, though, he's turned a below-average defensive infield into a tremendous defensive infield. A year ago, the offensive-minded Red Sox saw opposing batters hit .244 when they hit the ball on the ground -- a tick above the American League average of .240. The defensive-minded Seattle Mariners, playing most of the season with Beltre at third base, saw opponents hit .227 when they hit the ball on the ground.
Oh, and the move hasn't cost the Red Sox too much at the plate, either. Consider this player-by-player comparison:
Player A, 2008-09: .282/.337/.468 (.805)
Player B, 2008-09: .270/.333/.398 (.730)
Player A is Mike Lowell.
Player B is Casey Kotchman, who bounced around between three teams and had to adapt to a reserve role during the second half of last season. Their on-base percentages still are almost identical.
Kotchman, of course, would play first base every day for the Red Sox if the season started today, and Kevin Youkilis would play third base every day. Dustin Pedroia would play second base, and Marco Scutaro would play shortstop. (Not the other way around.)
Kotchman is an elite defensive first baseman, according to his Fielding Bible numbers (from BillJamesOnline.net):
2007: 18 runs saved (2nd in major leagues)
2008: 10 runs saved (5th in major leagues)
2009: 7 runs saved (7th in major leagues)
(Keep in mind Kotchman played only sparingly over the final two months of the season, too, after his July 31 trade to the Red Sox.)
Only Albert Pujols has consistently been a better defensive first baseman over the last three seasons than Kotchman.
And this is the worst-case scenario.
It's more likely that Epstein already has the parameters of a deal with slick-fielding third baseman Adrian Beltre, a move that would upgrade the Red Sox defensively even more. Youkilis then would move back to first base, and the Red Sox would have four infielders who are among the best in baseball at their respective positions.
Merry Christmas, Clay Buchholz.
Beltre, as previously discussed here, is not a crippling downgrade from Lowell at the plate. During the last two seasons, Beltre has an OPS of .739 -- but he played his home games at Safeco Field, a stadium that does little to reward the power of righthanded hitters.
(This is why the Mariners don't seem to see Jason Bay as a fit.)
The upgrade from Lowell to Beltre in the field seems to be more than enough to compensate for the difference. Beltre was credited with having saved 21 runs last season by John Dewan's Fielding Bible system, and Lowell was charged with having cost the Red Sox 17 runs last season. That's a difference of almost 40 runs -- or, since 10 runs is roughly equivalent to a win, almost four wins.
That's why, according to FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement statistics, Beltre would be an enormous upgrade on Lowell even without a bounce-back year at the plate:
Lowell, 2008/09: 3.2/1.2 -- 4.4 WAR
Beltre, 2008/09: 4.1/2.4 -- 6.5 WAR
What's most interesting is the fact that the Red Sox will absorb so much money to get rid of Lowell. The veteran still had plenty of value as a platoon-style designated hitter with David Ortiz -- albeit at the cost of a roster spot -- but Epstein (and Terry Francona) must have believed Lowell wouldn't be his same positive clubhouse presence if he was relegated to such a role.
Either that, or Epstein has so much respect for Lowell that he made sure to find him a landing where he could play on something of a regular basis.
He probably won't play much third base for Texas.
As long as he's not playing third base for Boston, though, the Red Sox are going to be a significantly better defensive team.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Hermida, Kotchman have options left
As the Red Sox assemble their 25-man roster for Opening Day -- months away, to be sure, but has that ever stopped us before? -- here's one thing to remember: Both new acquisition Jeremy Hermida and July acquisition Casey Kotchman have minor-league options remaining.
If the Red Sox lose out on Jason Bay and still want to go after a righthanded-hitting outfielder or two, they wouldn't necessarily have to non-tender (or trade) Hermida. If the Red Sox acquired an infielder like Adrian Gonzalez, they wouldn't necessarily have to non-tender (or trade) Kotchman.
It's easy to forget given how fast both Hermida and Kotchman established themselves in the major leagues, but it's also a byproduct of how fast both established themselves in the major leagues. Every major-league player, don't forget, has three minor-league options that teams still can exercise as long as that player has fewer than five years of major-league service time.
Both Kotchman and Hermida have between three and four years of accrued major-league service time.
(One more technicality: If a player spends fewer than 20 days in the minor leagues in a season, he has not burned a minor-league option.)
Hermida jumped from Double-A to the major leagues in August of 2005 and was added to the Marlins' 40-man roster for the first time at that point. He hasn't spent any significant time in the minor leagues since -- and thus hasn't burned an option. Technically, all three of his minor-league options still are available, but he can't be optioned without his permission once he's hit five full season, so he really has two minor-league options left.
Kotchman was added to the Angels' 40-man roster in May of 2004 when first baseman Darin Erstad was placed on the disabled list. He was shipped back to the minor leagues a month later upon the return of Erstad -- his first minor-league option. He then opened the 2005 season in Triple-A -- his second major-league option -- before being recalled for good in late May.
He hasn't spent more than 20 days in the minor leagues in any season since -- meaning his third minor-league option still is available should the Red Sox want to exercise it.
The Marlins couldn't exactly afford to pay Hermida $4 million -- his likely arbitration award -- if he wasn't going to be in their starting outfield. The Red Sox, on the other hand, wouldn't mind paying Hermida $4 million to start the season in Triple-A Pawtucket as part of a long-term investment in a former first-round pick with all the physical skills they could want.
Think of it this way: If Hermida becomes the hitter the Red Sox believe he can be, there's no reason he couldn't replace David Ortiz as the team's regular designated hitter in 2011 even if Jason Bay re-ups. Hermida also becomes perfect J.D. Drew insurance in the event the 34-year-old isn't as healthy next season as he was last season: The Red Sox could stash him in Pawtucket and call him up if and when Drew needs to spend some time on the 15-day disabled list.
Rocco Baldelli might be back. Josh Willingham -- or another righthanded-hitting outfielder -- might be acquired. It would appear the Red Sox would run into a roster crunch with the players they've assembled.
But because Hermida and Kotchman both established themselves in the major leagues so quickly, they both can be sent to the minor leagues next spring if that's what helps the Red Sox fit everyone in.
If the Red Sox lose out on Jason Bay and still want to go after a righthanded-hitting outfielder or two, they wouldn't necessarily have to non-tender (or trade) Hermida. If the Red Sox acquired an infielder like Adrian Gonzalez, they wouldn't necessarily have to non-tender (or trade) Kotchman.
It's easy to forget given how fast both Hermida and Kotchman established themselves in the major leagues, but it's also a byproduct of how fast both established themselves in the major leagues. Every major-league player, don't forget, has three minor-league options that teams still can exercise as long as that player has fewer than five years of major-league service time.
Both Kotchman and Hermida have between three and four years of accrued major-league service time.
(One more technicality: If a player spends fewer than 20 days in the minor leagues in a season, he has not burned a minor-league option.)
Hermida jumped from Double-A to the major leagues in August of 2005 and was added to the Marlins' 40-man roster for the first time at that point. He hasn't spent any significant time in the minor leagues since -- and thus hasn't burned an option. Technically, all three of his minor-league options still are available, but he can't be optioned without his permission once he's hit five full season, so he really has two minor-league options left.
Kotchman was added to the Angels' 40-man roster in May of 2004 when first baseman Darin Erstad was placed on the disabled list. He was shipped back to the minor leagues a month later upon the return of Erstad -- his first minor-league option. He then opened the 2005 season in Triple-A -- his second major-league option -- before being recalled for good in late May.
He hasn't spent more than 20 days in the minor leagues in any season since -- meaning his third minor-league option still is available should the Red Sox want to exercise it.
The Marlins couldn't exactly afford to pay Hermida $4 million -- his likely arbitration award -- if he wasn't going to be in their starting outfield. The Red Sox, on the other hand, wouldn't mind paying Hermida $4 million to start the season in Triple-A Pawtucket as part of a long-term investment in a former first-round pick with all the physical skills they could want.
Think of it this way: If Hermida becomes the hitter the Red Sox believe he can be, there's no reason he couldn't replace David Ortiz as the team's regular designated hitter in 2011 even if Jason Bay re-ups. Hermida also becomes perfect J.D. Drew insurance in the event the 34-year-old isn't as healthy next season as he was last season: The Red Sox could stash him in Pawtucket and call him up if and when Drew needs to spend some time on the 15-day disabled list.
Rocco Baldelli might be back. Josh Willingham -- or another righthanded-hitting outfielder -- might be acquired. It would appear the Red Sox would run into a roster crunch with the players they've assembled.
But because Hermida and Kotchman both established themselves in the major leagues so quickly, they both can be sent to the minor leagues next spring if that's what helps the Red Sox fit everyone in.
Saturday, September 12, 2009
What to do with Casey Kotchman?
The Red Sox have a young, talented and cost-controlled first baseman on their roster, the type of first baseman who makes it far easier to spend money on more glaring holes in the roster.
But Casey Kotchman has just 49 plate appearances in the five weeks since the Red Sox acquired him from the Atlanta Braves. He's a perfect defensive infielder late in the season for a playoff-bound team, particularly because he's not going to gripe about his role. But to keep him on the roster as a part-time player next season will be a waste of resources.
Kotchman, just a couple of years ago the No. 1 prospect in the Angels' farm system, will have far more value in trade to another organization than he'll have as a part-time player to the Red Sox.
(If there's one rule every general manager display prominently on a poster in his office, it's this one: If a player has more value to another franchise than to yours, you should trade that player and get that difference in value in return for him.)
The Red Sox have Mike Lowell, Victor Martinez, David Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis under contract next season. Jason Varitek is likely to pick up his option for 2010 even if the Red Sox decline theirs. If form holds, all five figure to receive more playing time than Kotchman in some sort of rotation -- and that means Kotchman once again would be a reserve player for the Red Sox.
The Red Sox could trade Lowell or trade Ortiz, but if they did that, they'd likely go shopping for a Prince Fielder- or Adrian Gonzalez-type bat to fit into the middle of the lineup. Kotchman, like Doug Mientkiewicz before him, is more of a bottom-of-the-order hitter than most contending teams prefer their first basemen to be.
Even those who share a locker room with Kotchman expect the Red Sox to resolve the logjam before next season begins.
“It’s tough when you are a contributing every-day player and you’re not playing every day,” Lowell said a couple of weeks ago. “But all parties believe this is more the short-term. Things have a weird way of happening.”
Not many teams, though, will go into next season needing a first baseman -- and free agents like Carlos Delgado, Aubrey Huff, Nick Johnson and Adam LaRoche figure to make the market a little more buyer-friendly than it ordinarily might be. Here's how the market likely will break down:
* More than 20 teams seem to have a first baseman in place for next season. That ranges from the Phillies (Ryan Howard) and Yankees (Mark Teixeira) to the Athletics (Daric Barton) and the Giants (some combination of Pablo Sandoval and Travis Ishikawa). Even the Indians, who recently promoted former top prospect Andy Marte, would seem to have little motivation to give up quality prospects for Kotchman.
* With Delgado injured, the Mets have played Daniel Murphy at first base for much of the season. But his production -- for instance, his .310 on-base percentage -- doesn't make him someone upon whom the Mets are going to build their future around.
* The Dodgers expected James Loney to develop into the same type of star as Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, but it doesn't seem to have happened. Both Kemp and Ethier are OPS'ing better than .850 this season, but Loney is mired at .751. Loney has fewer home runs (11) than Casey Blake.
* The Braves (LaRoche) and the Mariners (Russell Branyan) both are playing free-agents-to-be at first base, but both figure to make an effort to retain their incumbents. Branyan revived his career in Seattle, and LaRoche seems far more comfortable in Atlanta than he ever did in Pittsburgh. With the Braves more than competitive this year and building around a young core for next year, it shouldn't take much money to convince LaRoche to stick around.
* That leaves three teams with vacancies at first base after this season -- the Marlins, the Orioles and the Rangers.
All three actually would fit naturally for Kotchman. All three are relatively young teams who either already are competitive or who expect to be competitive in the near future. A 26-year-old first baseman who's played in a pennant race might be just the right type of fit for any of the three.
The Marlins traded for Nick Johnson at the deadline but might not want to pony up the money to retain him as a free agent. The Orioles, who have spent a couple of years accumulating a Rays-esque trove of young talent, traded Aubrey Huff in August and have made Ty Wigginton their temporary first baseman. The Rangers will have to decide whether to bring back oft-injured Hank Blalock or whether to give Chris Davis -- whose strikeout ratio of 38.5 percent would lead the league if he hadn't been sent to Triple-A for two months -- another chance to earn the full-time job.
Any of those three teams likely would swap a young pitcher to the Red Sox for the rights to a slick-fielding first baseman who won't be eligible for free agency until the 2011 season.
A year ago, Theo Epstein turned a glut of center fielders into relief pitcher Ramon Ramirez. Expect him to do something similar with his glut of corner infielders, and Kotchman is the most likely to go.
But Casey Kotchman has just 49 plate appearances in the five weeks since the Red Sox acquired him from the Atlanta Braves. He's a perfect defensive infielder late in the season for a playoff-bound team, particularly because he's not going to gripe about his role. But to keep him on the roster as a part-time player next season will be a waste of resources.
Kotchman, just a couple of years ago the No. 1 prospect in the Angels' farm system, will have far more value in trade to another organization than he'll have as a part-time player to the Red Sox.
(If there's one rule every general manager display prominently on a poster in his office, it's this one: If a player has more value to another franchise than to yours, you should trade that player and get that difference in value in return for him.)
The Red Sox have Mike Lowell, Victor Martinez, David Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis under contract next season. Jason Varitek is likely to pick up his option for 2010 even if the Red Sox decline theirs. If form holds, all five figure to receive more playing time than Kotchman in some sort of rotation -- and that means Kotchman once again would be a reserve player for the Red Sox.
The Red Sox could trade Lowell or trade Ortiz, but if they did that, they'd likely go shopping for a Prince Fielder- or Adrian Gonzalez-type bat to fit into the middle of the lineup. Kotchman, like Doug Mientkiewicz before him, is more of a bottom-of-the-order hitter than most contending teams prefer their first basemen to be.
Even those who share a locker room with Kotchman expect the Red Sox to resolve the logjam before next season begins.
“It’s tough when you are a contributing every-day player and you’re not playing every day,” Lowell said a couple of weeks ago. “But all parties believe this is more the short-term. Things have a weird way of happening.”
Not many teams, though, will go into next season needing a first baseman -- and free agents like Carlos Delgado, Aubrey Huff, Nick Johnson and Adam LaRoche figure to make the market a little more buyer-friendly than it ordinarily might be. Here's how the market likely will break down:
* More than 20 teams seem to have a first baseman in place for next season. That ranges from the Phillies (Ryan Howard) and Yankees (Mark Teixeira) to the Athletics (Daric Barton) and the Giants (some combination of Pablo Sandoval and Travis Ishikawa). Even the Indians, who recently promoted former top prospect Andy Marte, would seem to have little motivation to give up quality prospects for Kotchman.
* With Delgado injured, the Mets have played Daniel Murphy at first base for much of the season. But his production -- for instance, his .310 on-base percentage -- doesn't make him someone upon whom the Mets are going to build their future around.
* The Dodgers expected James Loney to develop into the same type of star as Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, but it doesn't seem to have happened. Both Kemp and Ethier are OPS'ing better than .850 this season, but Loney is mired at .751. Loney has fewer home runs (11) than Casey Blake.
* The Braves (LaRoche) and the Mariners (Russell Branyan) both are playing free-agents-to-be at first base, but both figure to make an effort to retain their incumbents. Branyan revived his career in Seattle, and LaRoche seems far more comfortable in Atlanta than he ever did in Pittsburgh. With the Braves more than competitive this year and building around a young core for next year, it shouldn't take much money to convince LaRoche to stick around.
* That leaves three teams with vacancies at first base after this season -- the Marlins, the Orioles and the Rangers.
All three actually would fit naturally for Kotchman. All three are relatively young teams who either already are competitive or who expect to be competitive in the near future. A 26-year-old first baseman who's played in a pennant race might be just the right type of fit for any of the three.
The Marlins traded for Nick Johnson at the deadline but might not want to pony up the money to retain him as a free agent. The Orioles, who have spent a couple of years accumulating a Rays-esque trove of young talent, traded Aubrey Huff in August and have made Ty Wigginton their temporary first baseman. The Rangers will have to decide whether to bring back oft-injured Hank Blalock or whether to give Chris Davis -- whose strikeout ratio of 38.5 percent would lead the league if he hadn't been sent to Triple-A for two months -- another chance to earn the full-time job.
Any of those three teams likely would swap a young pitcher to the Red Sox for the rights to a slick-fielding first baseman who won't be eligible for free agency until the 2011 season.
A year ago, Theo Epstein turned a glut of center fielders into relief pitcher Ramon Ramirez. Expect him to do something similar with his glut of corner infielders, and Kotchman is the most likely to go.
Saturday, August 15, 2009
The optimal Red Sox lineup
Kevin Youkilis will return from his suspension on Tuesday in Toronto and bring with him one of the best bats in the Red Sox lineup. His return, though, will make things even more challenging for Red Sox manager Terry Francona in his effort to juggle playing time for the weapons at his disposal.
We can hold a few truths to be self-evident:
1. Jason Bay, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Victor Martinez, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis should be in the Red Sox lineup just about every single day.
2. Neither Alex Gonzalez, acquired Friday from Cincinnati, or Nick Green should be hitting higher than ninth in the lineup.
3. Casey Kotchman is a terrific defensive first baseman.
4. Red Sox pitchers, particularly Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, love throwing to Jason Varitek.
5. Mike Lowell and David Ortiz both are getting older and slower and bring varying degrees of effectiveness with the bat -- and both have significant numbers left on their contracts
The issue facing Francona right now revolves mostly around first base, catcher and designated hitter. Ortiz and Varitek each have a long history with Francona and with the Red Sox, but neither is swinging anything resembling a productive bat. Mike Lowell is swinging a hotter bat than anyone on the team but doesn't have adequate range to play third base every day. Casey Kotchman is a fairly average hitter but can really, really pick it at first base.
But with Victor Martinez an everyday presence, only two of the four can play every day.
Who should it be?
Here's how they stack up this year against lefties...
Lowell: .903 OPS
Varitek: .872
Ortiz: .720
Kotchman: .634
... and against righties:
Lowell: .818 OPS
Kotchman: .806
Varitek: .719
Ortiz: .696
It really is that simple.
Lowell should be DH'ing every day. Varitek should catch primarily against lefties and sit primarily against lefties, though his rapport with Josh Beckett and Jon Lester ought to have something to do with it, too.
Kotchman should sit against lefties and play against righties. Ortiz should be a formidable lefthanded bat off the bench who can give opposing managers pause when they're thinking about bringing in a right to face the bottom of the Red Sox lineup.
Youkilis will be back Tuesday. We'll see how Francona plays it.
We can hold a few truths to be self-evident:
1. Jason Bay, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Victor Martinez, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis should be in the Red Sox lineup just about every single day.
2. Neither Alex Gonzalez, acquired Friday from Cincinnati, or Nick Green should be hitting higher than ninth in the lineup.
3. Casey Kotchman is a terrific defensive first baseman.
4. Red Sox pitchers, particularly Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, love throwing to Jason Varitek.
5. Mike Lowell and David Ortiz both are getting older and slower and bring varying degrees of effectiveness with the bat -- and both have significant numbers left on their contracts
The issue facing Francona right now revolves mostly around first base, catcher and designated hitter. Ortiz and Varitek each have a long history with Francona and with the Red Sox, but neither is swinging anything resembling a productive bat. Mike Lowell is swinging a hotter bat than anyone on the team but doesn't have adequate range to play third base every day. Casey Kotchman is a fairly average hitter but can really, really pick it at first base.
But with Victor Martinez an everyday presence, only two of the four can play every day.
Who should it be?
Here's how they stack up this year against lefties...
Lowell: .903 OPS
Varitek: .872
Ortiz: .720
Kotchman: .634
... and against righties:
Lowell: .818 OPS
Kotchman: .806
Varitek: .719
Ortiz: .696
It really is that simple.
Lowell should be DH'ing every day. Varitek should catch primarily against lefties and sit primarily against lefties, though his rapport with Josh Beckett and Jon Lester ought to have something to do with it, too.
Kotchman should sit against lefties and play against righties. Ortiz should be a formidable lefthanded bat off the bench who can give opposing managers pause when they're thinking about bringing in a right to face the bottom of the Red Sox lineup.
Youkilis will be back Tuesday. We'll see how Francona plays it.
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