Some still insist that J.D. Drew and David Ortiz will hit back-to-back in the Red Sox lineup, probably right behind Kevin Youkilis.
From one perspective, it makes sense for them to do so. After Youkilis and Victor Martinez, Drew and Ortiz ought to be the two best hitters in the Red Sox lineup. Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron were signed more for their defense than their bats, and it makes sense that they'd hit in the bottom third of the lineup.
But if Terry Francona does what he normally tries so hard to do -- that is, split up his lefties so as to make opposing managers' jobs more difficult -- he's going to hit one of the two between Drew and Ortiz in a lineup that looks something like this:
Ellsbury, LF
Pedroia, 2B
Martinez, C
Youkilis, 1B
Ortiz, DH
Cameron, CF
Drew, RF
Beltre, 3B
Scutaro, SS
A lineup like that could really benefit Cameron in the late innings.
Look at it this way: The point of inserting a buffer between Ortiz and Drew is to prevent an opposing manager from bringing in a lefty specialist to set down both in order before giving the ball back to a righty. Francona knows that. He only hit Drew and Ortiz back-to-back seven times last season. When Ortiz hit third, Drew hit fifth. When Ortiz hit fifth, Drew hit seventh. When Ortiz hit sixth, Drew hit eighth. Either Jason Bay or Mike Lowell almost always was slotted between Drew and Ortiz in the Red Sox lineup.
When the lineup rolls around to its Ortiz-Cameron-Drew-Beltre segment, an opposing manager will have two choices:
1. Employ a lefty-righty-lefty-righty strategy, thus burning a righthanded relief pitcher just to face Cameron;
2. Use the same lefty to face both Ortiz and Drew, allowing him in the process to face Cameron and maybe even Beltre.
Therein lies the beauty. Ortiz might be neutralized by tough lefties. Drew might even be neutralized by tough lefties -- though not as much as you'd think.
Cameron, though, thrives against lefties.
Consider the center fielder's splits:
2009
vs. RHP: .244/.318/.430 (.748 OPS)
vs. LHP: .271/.420/.534 (.954 OPS)
2008
vs. RHP: .231/.309/.452 (.761 OPS)
vs. LHP: .282/.397/.555 (.951 OPS)
Career
vs. RHP: .245/.330/.435 (.765 OPS)
vs. LHP: .267/.370/.489 (.859 OPS)
Over the last two seasons, Cameron has seen his OPS jump about 200 points when he's facing lefthanded pitching. Over his entire career, he's still seen his OPS jump about 100 points when he's facing lefthanded pitching.
(Beltre has a career split that's not nearly as pronounced, but he too has OPS'ed 200 points higher against lefties than against righties in each of his last two seasons.)
Francona says over and over that he wants to do all he can to make the opposing manager's job difficult. By slotting Cameron between Drew and Ortiz, he's does one of two things:
* He makes the opposing manager burn through extra bullpen arms in the late innings; or
* He makes the opposing manager use a lefty to face a righty who treats lefties like punching bags.
Showing posts with label ortiz. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ortiz. Show all posts
Monday, February 15, 2010
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
How long would you stick with Ortiz?
With spring training right around the corner -- and kudos to the Herald's Michael Silverman for the first on-the-scene story of the spring -- it's worth taking a look at what might be the question that determines the fate of the Red Sox season: Should David Ortiz endure another epic slump in April and May, how long should the Red Sox wait before pulling the plug?
The murmurs won't take long to grow in volume. You'd better believe there will be those ready to storm the streets should CC Sabathia strike him out in the first inning on Opening Day.
Ortiz, for those with short memories, didn't hit his first home run last season until May 20 and took a .188 batting average and .281 on-base percentage into play on June 6, the day on which he hit his first home run and seemed to get his feet under him for the first time. From then on, though, he hit .266 with a .360 on-base percentage and a .557 slugging percentage -- more than respectable, even for Big Papi.
Ortiz might just endure the same type of miserable slump this season as he did last season. Theo Epstein and Terry Francona then would have to make a difficult decision, especially with the potential-laden Jeremy Hermida waiting on the bench: Stick with Big Papi or cut him loose?
Odds are they'll stick with him -- and here are four reasons why:
Kent Hrbek, 1993
A beefy slugger in the Ortiz mold, Hrbek saw his numbers take their first severe downturn in 1992, his OPS falling from .834 to .765 and his home runs falling below 20 for the first time in almost 10 years. The year after that, Hrbek hit .238/.343/.446 in the first half, going into the All-Star break with a sub-.800 OPS for the first time since 1985.
In the second half, Hrbek posted a line of .246/.370/.487 -- including .295/.434/.689 in September.
Mo Vaughn, 2002
Vaughn missed the 2001 season after undergoing surgery to repair a ruptured tendon in his arm, and he got off to a lousy start after being traded to the Mets, hitting .200 with a .304 on-base percentage in the month of May. He hit for next to no power had a line of .248/.340/.399 at the All-Star break, a .739 OPS.
In the second half, Vaughn posted a line of .271/.360/.520 -- including .314/.442/.614 in September.
Carlos Delgado, 2008
Delgado hit just 24 home runs in 2007, his first season with fewer than 30 home runs and a sub-.500 slugging percentage in more than a decade. He then hit .198/.297/.323 in April and .229/.308/.476 in June, going into the All-Star break with a line of .248/.328/.455.
In the second half, Delgado posted a line of .303/.386/.606 -- including .340/.400/.649 in September.
David Ortiz, 2009
Oh, yeah, that. Some might dismiss the strong second half Ortiz enjoyed as a miracle not likely to happen again, but it's all part of the data set. The slugger went into the All-Star break wtih a line of .222/.317/.416 and had almost twice as many strikeouts (78) as walks (40).
In the second half, of course, Ortiz posted a line of .258/.350/.516, boosting his slugging percentage by 100 points. After hitting just one home run in April and May combined, he hit seven home runs apiece in June, July and August and six home runs in September.
What does it all mean? There's no good time to pull the plug on Ortiz unless he's completely and utterly overmatched at the plate. A year ago, he was OBP'ing .290 on April 30 and .284 on May 31 but still had a walk rate of better than 10 percent and still was seeing as many pitches as any player in the patient Red Sox lineup.
He's still a hitter that changes the way pitchers pitch. He's still a hitter who works counts and draws walks and keeps the line moving. He's still a hitter who forces opposing managers to use their lefty specialists.
There's almost no chance the Red Sox pick up their $12.5 million option they hold on Ortiz for 2011.
That, though, doesn't mean the Red Sox are going to give up on Ortiz midseason if he slumps again. There's too much history of sluggers breaking out of slumps in the second half for them just to cut bait and let him walk.
The murmurs won't take long to grow in volume. You'd better believe there will be those ready to storm the streets should CC Sabathia strike him out in the first inning on Opening Day.
Ortiz, for those with short memories, didn't hit his first home run last season until May 20 and took a .188 batting average and .281 on-base percentage into play on June 6, the day on which he hit his first home run and seemed to get his feet under him for the first time. From then on, though, he hit .266 with a .360 on-base percentage and a .557 slugging percentage -- more than respectable, even for Big Papi.
Ortiz might just endure the same type of miserable slump this season as he did last season. Theo Epstein and Terry Francona then would have to make a difficult decision, especially with the potential-laden Jeremy Hermida waiting on the bench: Stick with Big Papi or cut him loose?
Odds are they'll stick with him -- and here are four reasons why:
Kent Hrbek, 1993
A beefy slugger in the Ortiz mold, Hrbek saw his numbers take their first severe downturn in 1992, his OPS falling from .834 to .765 and his home runs falling below 20 for the first time in almost 10 years. The year after that, Hrbek hit .238/.343/.446 in the first half, going into the All-Star break with a sub-.800 OPS for the first time since 1985.
In the second half, Hrbek posted a line of .246/.370/.487 -- including .295/.434/.689 in September.
Mo Vaughn, 2002
Vaughn missed the 2001 season after undergoing surgery to repair a ruptured tendon in his arm, and he got off to a lousy start after being traded to the Mets, hitting .200 with a .304 on-base percentage in the month of May. He hit for next to no power had a line of .248/.340/.399 at the All-Star break, a .739 OPS.
In the second half, Vaughn posted a line of .271/.360/.520 -- including .314/.442/.614 in September.
Carlos Delgado, 2008
Delgado hit just 24 home runs in 2007, his first season with fewer than 30 home runs and a sub-.500 slugging percentage in more than a decade. He then hit .198/.297/.323 in April and .229/.308/.476 in June, going into the All-Star break with a line of .248/.328/.455.
In the second half, Delgado posted a line of .303/.386/.606 -- including .340/.400/.649 in September.
David Ortiz, 2009
Oh, yeah, that. Some might dismiss the strong second half Ortiz enjoyed as a miracle not likely to happen again, but it's all part of the data set. The slugger went into the All-Star break wtih a line of .222/.317/.416 and had almost twice as many strikeouts (78) as walks (40).
In the second half, of course, Ortiz posted a line of .258/.350/.516, boosting his slugging percentage by 100 points. After hitting just one home run in April and May combined, he hit seven home runs apiece in June, July and August and six home runs in September.
What does it all mean? There's no good time to pull the plug on Ortiz unless he's completely and utterly overmatched at the plate. A year ago, he was OBP'ing .290 on April 30 and .284 on May 31 but still had a walk rate of better than 10 percent and still was seeing as many pitches as any player in the patient Red Sox lineup.
He's still a hitter that changes the way pitchers pitch. He's still a hitter who works counts and draws walks and keeps the line moving. He's still a hitter who forces opposing managers to use their lefty specialists.
There's almost no chance the Red Sox pick up their $12.5 million option they hold on Ortiz for 2011.
That, though, doesn't mean the Red Sox are going to give up on Ortiz midseason if he slumps again. There's too much history of sluggers breaking out of slumps in the second half for them just to cut bait and let him walk.
Saturday, January 30, 2010
Older hitters still valuable in short deals
In the post-steroid, post-amphetamine, post-supplement era, older players have lost much of their appeal in the free-agent market. Teams are increasingly wary of being burned by 36- or 37-year-old players whose abilities on defense are eroding and whose speed on the basepaths is declining.
Bobby Abreu could barely get a sniff last winter. Former Red Sox outfielder Johnny Damon seems to have overplayed his hand this winter.
FanGraphs, among others, has started to wonder if older players are going to become the next market inefficiency.
The idea of a market inefficiency, after all, isn't to find the best players. The "Moneyball" Athletics worshipped at the altar of on-base percentage not because it was the only way to win games but because it was the way to get the most bang for their buck. The Seattle Mariners got better through improved defense because no one else knew who Franklin Gutierrez even was.
The goal of any team should be to maximize contribution per dollar. The more bang for the buck, the better. Even for a deep-pocketed team like the Red Sox, bang for the buck means something -- and it'll mean even more in coming years when the salaries of Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester, Jonathan Papelbon, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis all start to climb past $10 million a season.
The issue with older players, of course, is the fear of getting burned. The Detroit Tigers faced this issue with the $18 million option for Magglio Ordonez they tried halfheartedly to keep from vesting. Ordonez OPS'ed .804 last season, a respectable number but certainly not one worth $18 million a season.
According to FanGraphs, Ordonez was worth 1.8 wins above replacement last season. Abreu was worth 2.5 wins above replacement last season. Damon was worth 3.0 wins above replacement last season -- and he hasn't been worth less than 2.2 since the statistic started being compiled eight years ago.
Ordonez is an example of the danger in paying too much to older players. Abreu and Damon are examples of the danger of shying away too much from older players.
Damon still can hit. The 37-year-old outfielder thrived in the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium last season but still OPS'ed .795 on the road, including an on-base percentage of .349. His walk rate stayed above 10 percent for the fourth straight season. He saw more than 4.0 pitches per plate appearance for the fourth straight season.
Damon might be 10 years older than Jeremy Hermida, but the odds are pretty good that he would outproduce Hermida in the same amount of playing time. Even better, he'll probably earn about the same salary. One would like to believe that if the contract of David Ortiz had expired, Theo Epstein already would have snapped up Damon to be his designated hitter next season.
The contract of Ortiz does expire after the 2010 season, and there's almost no chance the Red Sox pick up the $12.5 million team option for 2011. That's when Epstein will have a chance to exploit the new market inefficiency.
Epstein by then might have made a trade for San Diego's Adrian Gonzalez or Detroit's Miguel Cabrera. Instead of investing $100 million in one of those two sluggers, though, it might be worth trawling for older players on one- or two-year contracts, players who can provide two-thirds of the production at one-third the cost.
One such player, actually, could be Ortiz himself.
Adam Dunn could be another. Much like Abreu and Damon, Dunn will be on the wrong side of 30 and bring little defensive value when he hits the open market after the 2010 season. Predicting the market is next to impossible, of course, but there's a good chance Dunn and Ortiz both get the Abreu/Damon treatment in the new defense-is-paramount age of baseball.
Dunn has OBP'ed better than .380 in five of his last six seasons. He's slugged better than .500 in five of his last six seasons. His OPS of .928 last season ranked him ahead of Jason Bay, J.D. Drew and Matt Holliday.
He's been worth just 1.2 wins above replacement in each of the last two seasons, but that number factors in his miserable defense. If an American League team -- say, the Red Sox -- needed a designated hitter, Dunn could provide tremendous production at a fraction of the cost of Cabrera or Gonzalez.
Bobby Abreu could barely get a sniff last winter. Former Red Sox outfielder Johnny Damon seems to have overplayed his hand this winter.
FanGraphs, among others, has started to wonder if older players are going to become the next market inefficiency.
The idea of a market inefficiency, after all, isn't to find the best players. The "Moneyball" Athletics worshipped at the altar of on-base percentage not because it was the only way to win games but because it was the way to get the most bang for their buck. The Seattle Mariners got better through improved defense because no one else knew who Franklin Gutierrez even was.
The goal of any team should be to maximize contribution per dollar. The more bang for the buck, the better. Even for a deep-pocketed team like the Red Sox, bang for the buck means something -- and it'll mean even more in coming years when the salaries of Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester, Jonathan Papelbon, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis all start to climb past $10 million a season.
The issue with older players, of course, is the fear of getting burned. The Detroit Tigers faced this issue with the $18 million option for Magglio Ordonez they tried halfheartedly to keep from vesting. Ordonez OPS'ed .804 last season, a respectable number but certainly not one worth $18 million a season.
According to FanGraphs, Ordonez was worth 1.8 wins above replacement last season. Abreu was worth 2.5 wins above replacement last season. Damon was worth 3.0 wins above replacement last season -- and he hasn't been worth less than 2.2 since the statistic started being compiled eight years ago.
Ordonez is an example of the danger in paying too much to older players. Abreu and Damon are examples of the danger of shying away too much from older players.
Damon still can hit. The 37-year-old outfielder thrived in the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium last season but still OPS'ed .795 on the road, including an on-base percentage of .349. His walk rate stayed above 10 percent for the fourth straight season. He saw more than 4.0 pitches per plate appearance for the fourth straight season.
Damon might be 10 years older than Jeremy Hermida, but the odds are pretty good that he would outproduce Hermida in the same amount of playing time. Even better, he'll probably earn about the same salary. One would like to believe that if the contract of David Ortiz had expired, Theo Epstein already would have snapped up Damon to be his designated hitter next season.
The contract of Ortiz does expire after the 2010 season, and there's almost no chance the Red Sox pick up the $12.5 million team option for 2011. That's when Epstein will have a chance to exploit the new market inefficiency.
Epstein by then might have made a trade for San Diego's Adrian Gonzalez or Detroit's Miguel Cabrera. Instead of investing $100 million in one of those two sluggers, though, it might be worth trawling for older players on one- or two-year contracts, players who can provide two-thirds of the production at one-third the cost.
One such player, actually, could be Ortiz himself.
Adam Dunn could be another. Much like Abreu and Damon, Dunn will be on the wrong side of 30 and bring little defensive value when he hits the open market after the 2010 season. Predicting the market is next to impossible, of course, but there's a good chance Dunn and Ortiz both get the Abreu/Damon treatment in the new defense-is-paramount age of baseball.
Dunn has OBP'ed better than .380 in five of his last six seasons. He's slugged better than .500 in five of his last six seasons. His OPS of .928 last season ranked him ahead of Jason Bay, J.D. Drew and Matt Holliday.
He's been worth just 1.2 wins above replacement in each of the last two seasons, but that number factors in his miserable defense. If an American League team -- say, the Red Sox -- needed a designated hitter, Dunn could provide tremendous production at a fraction of the cost of Cabrera or Gonzalez.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Running the bases with the Red Sox
The play looked fairly innocuous at the time.
Mike Lowell -- the same Mike Lowell who ran last season as if he was dragging a parachute behind him -- surprised everyone by breaking for third in the second inning of a mid-May game against the Toronto Blue Jays. He'd taken a healthy lead off second base and didn't draw a glance from the pitcher, so he decided on his own to take a shot at third.
Lowell surprised everyone, that is, except J.D. Drew, the runner on first base who broke for second base just as Lowell broke for third. When Jeff Bailey singled to shallow left field, Lowell scored -- and Drew coasted into third base. When George Kottaras followed with a fly ball to left field, Drew scored the second run of the inning.
Had Drew not been paying attention to Lowell, he only would have made it to second base on Bailey's single. He then might or might not have made it to third base on Kottaras' fly ball -- and he certainly would have been stranded when Jacoby Ellsbury lined to first base to end the inning.
You guessed it: The Red Sox ended up winning that game, 2-1.
"We scored a run and J.D. was able to get to third on a ball that probably neither of us (otherwise) advances two bases on," Lowell said after the game. "Georgie got a sac fly, and it ended up being something that worked out for us."
Running the bases doesn't have as much impact as hitting or pitching or even playing defense. Running the bases, though, can turn the tide of a handful of games over the course of a season and even can be the difference between a win and a loss.
With that in mind, here's a look at how the Red Sox have fared -- and might fare next season -- in terms of their baserunning.
(Both BillJamesOnline.net and Baseball-Reference.com compile baserunning statistics. The below statistics are from the latter.)
Going from first to third on a single
American League average: 27.0 percent
2008 lineup: 22.2 percent
2009 lineup: 24.7 percent
2010 lineup*: 24.7 percent
The best: Kevin Youkilis (12 for 32, 37.5 percent)
The worst: David Ortiz (2 for 27, 7.4 percent)
New acquisitions Adrian Beltre (50 percent) and Mike Cameron (41.9 percent) both went from corner to corner last season at an above-average clip. Marco Scutaro, on the other hand, had a brutal year in that area: He got to third base just four times in 38 opportunities, or 10.5 percent.
Scoring from second on a single
American League average: 58.1 percent
2008 lineup: 58.0 percent
2009 lineup: 55.1 percent
2010 lineup*: 54.0 percent
The best: Jason Bay (11 for 12, 91.7 percent)
The worst: Ortiz (2 for 16, 12.5 percent)
Seeing as how picking on Jacoby Ellsbury has become the unofficial theme of the Red Sox offseason, it's interesting to note that the speedster scored from second just 46.2 percent of the time a season ago, third-worst among Red Sox regulars. Ortiz and Jason Varitek were the only other regulars to fail to score from second base on at least 50 percent of their opportunities last season.
Much like his fielding numbers, Ellsbury's baserunning numbers -- his stolen bases aside, of course -- seem to indicate he's not taking full advantage of his speed.
Scoring from first on a double
American League average: 37.9 percent
2008 lineup: 27.5 percent
2009 lineup: 27.2 percent
2010 lineup*: 35.3 percent
The best: Nick Green (5 for 7, 71.4 percent)
The worst: Ortiz/Varitek (0 for 7/0 for 3, 0 percent)
It shouldn't be that surprising that Ortiz is at the bottom of most of these lists. He is, after all, Big Papi. But as the Red Sox try to figure out how often to play him next season, his inability to do anything on the basepaths -- the way he clogs the bases, if you will -- might be a tiny factor in their decision.
Ellsbury? He scored from first on a double just twice on nine opportunities last season, again the third-lowest rate among Red Sox regulars. This time, though, some context is in order: If Ellsbury singles to lead off the game and Dustin Pedroia lofts a high fly ball off the Green Monster -- Pedroia hit 10 first-inning doubles last season -- Ellsbury is going to have to hold at second base until he knows the fly ball won't be caught.
There's little excuse for Ellsbury not being able to score from second on a single more often than he does, but failing to score from first on a double seems to be a function of the ballpark in which he plays.
* based on 2009 numbers
Mike Lowell -- the same Mike Lowell who ran last season as if he was dragging a parachute behind him -- surprised everyone by breaking for third in the second inning of a mid-May game against the Toronto Blue Jays. He'd taken a healthy lead off second base and didn't draw a glance from the pitcher, so he decided on his own to take a shot at third.
Lowell surprised everyone, that is, except J.D. Drew, the runner on first base who broke for second base just as Lowell broke for third. When Jeff Bailey singled to shallow left field, Lowell scored -- and Drew coasted into third base. When George Kottaras followed with a fly ball to left field, Drew scored the second run of the inning.
Had Drew not been paying attention to Lowell, he only would have made it to second base on Bailey's single. He then might or might not have made it to third base on Kottaras' fly ball -- and he certainly would have been stranded when Jacoby Ellsbury lined to first base to end the inning.
You guessed it: The Red Sox ended up winning that game, 2-1.
"We scored a run and J.D. was able to get to third on a ball that probably neither of us (otherwise) advances two bases on," Lowell said after the game. "Georgie got a sac fly, and it ended up being something that worked out for us."
Running the bases doesn't have as much impact as hitting or pitching or even playing defense. Running the bases, though, can turn the tide of a handful of games over the course of a season and even can be the difference between a win and a loss.
With that in mind, here's a look at how the Red Sox have fared -- and might fare next season -- in terms of their baserunning.
(Both BillJamesOnline.net and Baseball-Reference.com compile baserunning statistics. The below statistics are from the latter.)
Going from first to third on a single
American League average: 27.0 percent
2008 lineup: 22.2 percent
2009 lineup: 24.7 percent
2010 lineup*: 24.7 percent
The best: Kevin Youkilis (12 for 32, 37.5 percent)
The worst: David Ortiz (2 for 27, 7.4 percent)
New acquisitions Adrian Beltre (50 percent) and Mike Cameron (41.9 percent) both went from corner to corner last season at an above-average clip. Marco Scutaro, on the other hand, had a brutal year in that area: He got to third base just four times in 38 opportunities, or 10.5 percent.
Scoring from second on a single
American League average: 58.1 percent
2008 lineup: 58.0 percent
2009 lineup: 55.1 percent
2010 lineup*: 54.0 percent
The best: Jason Bay (11 for 12, 91.7 percent)
The worst: Ortiz (2 for 16, 12.5 percent)
Seeing as how picking on Jacoby Ellsbury has become the unofficial theme of the Red Sox offseason, it's interesting to note that the speedster scored from second just 46.2 percent of the time a season ago, third-worst among Red Sox regulars. Ortiz and Jason Varitek were the only other regulars to fail to score from second base on at least 50 percent of their opportunities last season.
Much like his fielding numbers, Ellsbury's baserunning numbers -- his stolen bases aside, of course -- seem to indicate he's not taking full advantage of his speed.
Scoring from first on a double
American League average: 37.9 percent
2008 lineup: 27.5 percent
2009 lineup: 27.2 percent
2010 lineup*: 35.3 percent
The best: Nick Green (5 for 7, 71.4 percent)
The worst: Ortiz/Varitek (0 for 7/0 for 3, 0 percent)
It shouldn't be that surprising that Ortiz is at the bottom of most of these lists. He is, after all, Big Papi. But as the Red Sox try to figure out how often to play him next season, his inability to do anything on the basepaths -- the way he clogs the bases, if you will -- might be a tiny factor in their decision.
Ellsbury? He scored from first on a double just twice on nine opportunities last season, again the third-lowest rate among Red Sox regulars. This time, though, some context is in order: If Ellsbury singles to lead off the game and Dustin Pedroia lofts a high fly ball off the Green Monster -- Pedroia hit 10 first-inning doubles last season -- Ellsbury is going to have to hold at second base until he knows the fly ball won't be caught.
There's little excuse for Ellsbury not being able to score from second on a single more often than he does, but failing to score from first on a double seems to be a function of the ballpark in which he plays.
* based on 2009 numbers
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
How often should Ortiz play?
"David's a big -- I don't want to say question mark because he's not a question mark, but when David hits, we're different. Same thing when he doesn't hit. When you have a guy who is a full-time DH, he has to hit.'' -- Red Sox manager Terry Francona
Talk about disparate numbers: Here's David Ortiz before and after the All-Star break last season, the most difficult season of his Red Sox career:
Before: .733 OPS
After: .866 OPS
Talk about disparate numbers: Here's David Ortiz against lefthanded pitching and against righthanded pitching last season:
LHP: .716 OPS
RHP: .828 OPS
Against lefties, in other words, he was his first-half self. Against righties, he was his second-half self -- a well above-average hitter capable of hitting in the middle of the Red Sox lineup.
The question begs itself: At what point do the Red Sox start considering playing Ortiz only against righthanded pitchers and sitting him against lefties?
The answer: When a better option presents itself.
The Red Sox have brought righty Bill Hall and lefty Jeremy Hermida on board to provide a little thump off the bench, and righty Mike Lowell -- if he's not traded, anyway -- and switch-hitter Jason Varitek remain options as well.
Terry Francona will have plenty of choices as he makes out his lineups against both righties and lefties this season:
Against righthanded pitching
Hall: .589 last season/.725 career
Hermida: .786 last season/.792 career
Lowell: .784 last season/.798 career
Ortiz: .828 last season/.964 career
Varitek: .666 last season/.759 career
Best option: Ortiz. That seems clear.
Against lefthanded pitching
Hall: .606 last season/.810 career
Hermida: .601 last season/.697 career
Lowell: .867 last season/.850 career
Ortiz: .716 last season/.819 career
Varitek: .807 last season/.828 career
Best option: Lowell. That seems clear, too.
If Lowell is traded, though: Would you believe it's Varitek?
If the goal is to keep Victor Martinez as fresh as possible, it might make sense for him to play first base or serve as designated hitter against lefties as often as possible. If Varitek plays exclusively against lefties, it would mean Ortiz probably would sit against most lefties.
If last season's numbers are to believed, though, replacing Ortiz with Varitek against lefthanded pitchers, either as the catcher with Martinez DH'ing or as the DH himself, would mean a significant upgrade at the plate.
Talk about disparate numbers: Here's David Ortiz before and after the All-Star break last season, the most difficult season of his Red Sox career:
Before: .733 OPS
After: .866 OPS
Talk about disparate numbers: Here's David Ortiz against lefthanded pitching and against righthanded pitching last season:
LHP: .716 OPS
RHP: .828 OPS
Against lefties, in other words, he was his first-half self. Against righties, he was his second-half self -- a well above-average hitter capable of hitting in the middle of the Red Sox lineup.
The question begs itself: At what point do the Red Sox start considering playing Ortiz only against righthanded pitchers and sitting him against lefties?
The answer: When a better option presents itself.
The Red Sox have brought righty Bill Hall and lefty Jeremy Hermida on board to provide a little thump off the bench, and righty Mike Lowell -- if he's not traded, anyway -- and switch-hitter Jason Varitek remain options as well.
Terry Francona will have plenty of choices as he makes out his lineups against both righties and lefties this season:
Against righthanded pitching
Hall: .589 last season/.725 career
Hermida: .786 last season/.792 career
Lowell: .784 last season/.798 career
Ortiz: .828 last season/.964 career
Varitek: .666 last season/.759 career
Best option: Ortiz. That seems clear.
Against lefthanded pitching
Hall: .606 last season/.810 career
Hermida: .601 last season/.697 career
Lowell: .867 last season/.850 career
Ortiz: .716 last season/.819 career
Varitek: .807 last season/.828 career
Best option: Lowell. That seems clear, too.
If Lowell is traded, though: Would you believe it's Varitek?
If the goal is to keep Victor Martinez as fresh as possible, it might make sense for him to play first base or serve as designated hitter against lefties as often as possible. If Varitek plays exclusively against lefties, it would mean Ortiz probably would sit against most lefties.
If last season's numbers are to believed, though, replacing Ortiz with Varitek against lefthanded pitchers, either as the catcher with Martinez DH'ing or as the DH himself, would mean a significant upgrade at the plate.
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
Putting together the Red Sox lineup
(For real this time.)
The acquisition of Adrian Beltre almost certainly closes the book on changes to the Red Sox starting lineup on Opening Day. The issue now is figuring out how Terry Francona will slot everyone in.
It's not a random process. Francona has a method to what he does, and he's not unaware of the statistics that make some players better fits at certain spots in the lineup than others.
Below are some of those considerations:
1. J.D. Drew and David Ortiz will not hit back-to-back.
More than a few lineup projections have David Ortiz hitting fifth in the Red Sox lineup and J.D. Drew hitting sixth. Francona, however, has a strict aversion to making opposing managers' jobs easy -- and if Drew and Ortiz are hitting back-to-back, a trained monkey would know enough to bring in a lefty to face both of them in a key spot in the late innings.
Drew and Ortiz played in 137 and 150 games, respectively, last season.
Any guesses how many times they hit back-to-back in the Red Sox lineup?
Seven. All season.
Most of the time they did so, it came in a game in which Jason Bay -- the natural buffer between the two -- was taking a day off. Francona wasn't going to put Rocco Baldelli or Josh Reddick any higher than seventh in the Red Sox lineup when they were playing on such a limited basis.
When Ortiz hit third, Drew hit fifth. When Ortiz hit fifth, Drew hit seventh. In all of those games down the stretch when Drew hit eighth, both Bay and Mike Lowell buffered him from Ortiz.
It might happen once in a while -- it did a year ago -- but there's no chance Drew and Ortiz are going to hit back-to-back on a regular basis next season.
2. Dustin Pedroia is a perfect No. 2 hitter
It's not that anyone is proposing moving Pedroia out of his home between Jacoby Ellsbury and Victor Martinez. He draws walks and hits line drives but doesn't hit the home runs that would make him a No. 3 or No. 4 hitter in a World Series-caliber lineup.
Drew and his inclination to take pitches and get on base likewise would be a better fit at the top of the batting order than in the middle. Some will criticize -- and have criticized -- Drew because he's a $14 million player who can't hit higher than No. 7 or No. 7 in the batting order.
If not for Pedroia, though, Drew would be where he belongs.
3. Mike Cameron is a more productive hitter than Adrian Beltre
It's tough to project the way Beltre will hit next season upon having been liberated from Safeco Field. Just using road splits, however, tell a story by themselves:
2009
Beltre: .279/.324/.393 (.717 OPS)
Cameron: .257/.355/.432 (.787 OPS)
2008
Beltre: .292/.349/.512 (.862 OPS)
Cameron: .258/.346/.548 (.895 OPS)
2007
Beltre: .288/.320/.538 (.858 OPS)
Cameron: .254/.341/.449 (.789 OPS)
On top of that, Cameron is a far better fit for the grind-it-out approach the Red Sox cherish in their hitters. A handful of other numbers:
Pitches per plate appearance (2009)
Beltre: 3.56
Cameron: 3.96
Pitches per plate appearance (career)
Beltre: 3.77
Cameron: 4.05
Pitches swung at out of the strike zone (2009)
Beltre: 36.8 percent
Cameron: 17.4 percent
Pitches swung at out of the strike zone (career)
Beltre: 30.1 percent
Cameron: 16.9 percent
Beltre is a tremendous defensive third baseman and certainly will benefit from being able to pull the ball at the Green Monster.
He's not, however, someone who should be hitting ahead of Drew or Ortiz -- or Cameron -- in the Red Sox lineup.
4. Marco Scutaro is a second leadoff hitter
In the same way some experts have endorsed the idea of National League teams hitting their pitchers eighth in their lineups, it makes sense for the Red Sox to put the least productive hitter in their lineup -- Beltre, most likely -- in the No. 8 spot rather than in the No. 9 spot.
One way to approach lineup construction is to put the No. 6, 7, 8 and 9 hitters in descending order of quality. In a close game in the late innings, after all, it makes sense for a team to have its best hitters in line from best to worst.
The difference between the No. 8 spot and the No. 9 spot in the lineup for the Red Sox a year ago, though, was 19 plate appearances. In exchange for those 19 at-bats, the thinking has it, a team is better off getting a quality on-base guy in front of its productive hitters at the top of the lineup. Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia both are line-drive hitters who are fully capable of driving in runners on base -- and Scutaro is going to get on base at a rate 50 points higher than Beltre will.
***
With all of that said, here's how the Opening Day lineup comes together:
1. Ellsbury, LF
2. Pedroia, 2B
3. Martinez, C
4. Youkilis, 1B
5. Ortiz, DH
6. Cameron, CF
7. Drew, RF
8. Beltre, 3B
9. Scutaro, SS
The acquisition of Adrian Beltre almost certainly closes the book on changes to the Red Sox starting lineup on Opening Day. The issue now is figuring out how Terry Francona will slot everyone in.
It's not a random process. Francona has a method to what he does, and he's not unaware of the statistics that make some players better fits at certain spots in the lineup than others.
Below are some of those considerations:
1. J.D. Drew and David Ortiz will not hit back-to-back.
More than a few lineup projections have David Ortiz hitting fifth in the Red Sox lineup and J.D. Drew hitting sixth. Francona, however, has a strict aversion to making opposing managers' jobs easy -- and if Drew and Ortiz are hitting back-to-back, a trained monkey would know enough to bring in a lefty to face both of them in a key spot in the late innings.
Drew and Ortiz played in 137 and 150 games, respectively, last season.
Any guesses how many times they hit back-to-back in the Red Sox lineup?
Seven. All season.
Most of the time they did so, it came in a game in which Jason Bay -- the natural buffer between the two -- was taking a day off. Francona wasn't going to put Rocco Baldelli or Josh Reddick any higher than seventh in the Red Sox lineup when they were playing on such a limited basis.
When Ortiz hit third, Drew hit fifth. When Ortiz hit fifth, Drew hit seventh. In all of those games down the stretch when Drew hit eighth, both Bay and Mike Lowell buffered him from Ortiz.
It might happen once in a while -- it did a year ago -- but there's no chance Drew and Ortiz are going to hit back-to-back on a regular basis next season.
2. Dustin Pedroia is a perfect No. 2 hitter
It's not that anyone is proposing moving Pedroia out of his home between Jacoby Ellsbury and Victor Martinez. He draws walks and hits line drives but doesn't hit the home runs that would make him a No. 3 or No. 4 hitter in a World Series-caliber lineup.
Drew and his inclination to take pitches and get on base likewise would be a better fit at the top of the batting order than in the middle. Some will criticize -- and have criticized -- Drew because he's a $14 million player who can't hit higher than No. 7 or No. 7 in the batting order.
If not for Pedroia, though, Drew would be where he belongs.
3. Mike Cameron is a more productive hitter than Adrian Beltre
It's tough to project the way Beltre will hit next season upon having been liberated from Safeco Field. Just using road splits, however, tell a story by themselves:
2009
Beltre: .279/.324/.393 (.717 OPS)
Cameron: .257/.355/.432 (.787 OPS)
2008
Beltre: .292/.349/.512 (.862 OPS)
Cameron: .258/.346/.548 (.895 OPS)
2007
Beltre: .288/.320/.538 (.858 OPS)
Cameron: .254/.341/.449 (.789 OPS)
On top of that, Cameron is a far better fit for the grind-it-out approach the Red Sox cherish in their hitters. A handful of other numbers:
Pitches per plate appearance (2009)
Beltre: 3.56
Cameron: 3.96
Pitches per plate appearance (career)
Beltre: 3.77
Cameron: 4.05
Pitches swung at out of the strike zone (2009)
Beltre: 36.8 percent
Cameron: 17.4 percent
Pitches swung at out of the strike zone (career)
Beltre: 30.1 percent
Cameron: 16.9 percent
Beltre is a tremendous defensive third baseman and certainly will benefit from being able to pull the ball at the Green Monster.
He's not, however, someone who should be hitting ahead of Drew or Ortiz -- or Cameron -- in the Red Sox lineup.
4. Marco Scutaro is a second leadoff hitter
In the same way some experts have endorsed the idea of National League teams hitting their pitchers eighth in their lineups, it makes sense for the Red Sox to put the least productive hitter in their lineup -- Beltre, most likely -- in the No. 8 spot rather than in the No. 9 spot.
One way to approach lineup construction is to put the No. 6, 7, 8 and 9 hitters in descending order of quality. In a close game in the late innings, after all, it makes sense for a team to have its best hitters in line from best to worst.
The difference between the No. 8 spot and the No. 9 spot in the lineup for the Red Sox a year ago, though, was 19 plate appearances. In exchange for those 19 at-bats, the thinking has it, a team is better off getting a quality on-base guy in front of its productive hitters at the top of the lineup. Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia both are line-drive hitters who are fully capable of driving in runners on base -- and Scutaro is going to get on base at a rate 50 points higher than Beltre will.
***
With all of that said, here's how the Opening Day lineup comes together:
1. Ellsbury, LF
2. Pedroia, 2B
3. Martinez, C
4. Youkilis, 1B
5. Ortiz, DH
6. Cameron, CF
7. Drew, RF
8. Beltre, 3B
9. Scutaro, SS
Saturday, December 19, 2009
Welcome back, Mike Lowell
So the Mike Lowell trade reportedly is not going to go through. Lowell will undergo surgery on a torn ligament in his thumb -- a surgery that requires six to eight weeks of recovery time -- and thus likely will be with the Red Sox when spring training opens in February.
(It's natural to ask if the Red Sox would have known about the thumb injury at all if they hadn't tried to trade Lowell -- and if the injury thus would have become a factor in February rather than November. There's no answer to that question yet.)
The first step for Theo Epstein and Terry Francona will be to soothe the egos involved. ("Ha ha! It was all a joke! Max Ramirez isn't even a real person!") The second step, though, will be to figure out a way to juggle playing time both to keep everyone happy and to ensure the Red Sox will be as productive as possible both at the plate and in the field. One of those priorities is more important -- and it's not the former.
Among the strategies they might use to make it work:
1. David Ortiz won't play against lefties, period.
That's an easy one. Ortiz might be the most prolific designated hitter in the history of the franchise. In his career, though, he's OPS'ed almost 150 points higher against righties (.964) than against lefties (.819), and he's OPS'ed under .800 against lefties in each of the last two seasons. Against righties, on the other hand, Ortiz OPS'ed .828 even during the worst season of his Red Sox career.
Lowell, on the other hand, hits lefties: His career OPS is 50 points higher against lefties (.850) than against righties (.798). In the last three years, he's OPS'ed .849, .961 and .867 against lefthanded pitching. He even has a .429 career on-base percentage against Yankees lefty Andy Pettitte.
There's no reason Lowell shouldn't be the designated hitter -- at minimum -- when a lefthanded pitcher is on the mound.
2. Lowell's defensive abilities have to be evaluated.
One of these UZR numbers is not like the other:
2006: plus-7.7
2007: plus-7.3
2008: plus-11.1
2009: minus-10.4
It's clear the hip surgery Lowell underwent a year ago affected his range in the field last season. It's certainly not clear that a year of recovery time will bring back an athleticism and a range that once was well above average -- especially since Lowell will turn 36 in February.
But unless the Red Sox plan on employing two full-time designated hitters -- hint: a 25-man roster doesn't allow for two full-time designated hitters -- the Red Sox have to see what they can get out of him. If he's got some range of motion, he could play third base on a limited basis with Kevin Youkilis moving back across the diamond to first base. If he has less range of motion, it might be worth throwing a first baseman's mitt at him and seeing if it sticks.
Either scenario, of course, would mean that Casey Kotchman would take a seat against lefties even though he doesn't have a severe lefty-right split. That brings us to ...
3. Someone has to make a decision on Kotchman.
If the Red Sox don't see the slick-fielding first baseman as playing a significant role next season, it makes no sense to keep him and an arbitration award around $4 million on the roster. A 12-man pitching staff leaves room for four bench players:
* A backup catcher (Jason Varitek)
* A utility infielder (Jed Lowrie)
* A lefthanded hitting outfielder (Jeremy Hermida)
* A righthanded hitting outfielder (TBD)
Unless the Red Sox want to forgo a fifth outfielder -- and thus leave themselves with Mike Cameron as their only outfielder who swings righthanded -- there's not really room for an extra infielder who only plays first base.
Kotchman will turn 27 in February. He's headed into his prime. He has to have some value to someone. The Red Sox either have to play him or move him.
(It's natural to ask if the Red Sox would have known about the thumb injury at all if they hadn't tried to trade Lowell -- and if the injury thus would have become a factor in February rather than November. There's no answer to that question yet.)
The first step for Theo Epstein and Terry Francona will be to soothe the egos involved. ("Ha ha! It was all a joke! Max Ramirez isn't even a real person!") The second step, though, will be to figure out a way to juggle playing time both to keep everyone happy and to ensure the Red Sox will be as productive as possible both at the plate and in the field. One of those priorities is more important -- and it's not the former.
Among the strategies they might use to make it work:
1. David Ortiz won't play against lefties, period.
That's an easy one. Ortiz might be the most prolific designated hitter in the history of the franchise. In his career, though, he's OPS'ed almost 150 points higher against righties (.964) than against lefties (.819), and he's OPS'ed under .800 against lefties in each of the last two seasons. Against righties, on the other hand, Ortiz OPS'ed .828 even during the worst season of his Red Sox career.
Lowell, on the other hand, hits lefties: His career OPS is 50 points higher against lefties (.850) than against righties (.798). In the last three years, he's OPS'ed .849, .961 and .867 against lefthanded pitching. He even has a .429 career on-base percentage against Yankees lefty Andy Pettitte.
There's no reason Lowell shouldn't be the designated hitter -- at minimum -- when a lefthanded pitcher is on the mound.
2. Lowell's defensive abilities have to be evaluated.
One of these UZR numbers is not like the other:
2006: plus-7.7
2007: plus-7.3
2008: plus-11.1
2009: minus-10.4
It's clear the hip surgery Lowell underwent a year ago affected his range in the field last season. It's certainly not clear that a year of recovery time will bring back an athleticism and a range that once was well above average -- especially since Lowell will turn 36 in February.
But unless the Red Sox plan on employing two full-time designated hitters -- hint: a 25-man roster doesn't allow for two full-time designated hitters -- the Red Sox have to see what they can get out of him. If he's got some range of motion, he could play third base on a limited basis with Kevin Youkilis moving back across the diamond to first base. If he has less range of motion, it might be worth throwing a first baseman's mitt at him and seeing if it sticks.
Either scenario, of course, would mean that Casey Kotchman would take a seat against lefties even though he doesn't have a severe lefty-right split. That brings us to ...
3. Someone has to make a decision on Kotchman.
If the Red Sox don't see the slick-fielding first baseman as playing a significant role next season, it makes no sense to keep him and an arbitration award around $4 million on the roster. A 12-man pitching staff leaves room for four bench players:
* A backup catcher (Jason Varitek)
* A utility infielder (Jed Lowrie)
* A lefthanded hitting outfielder (Jeremy Hermida)
* A righthanded hitting outfielder (TBD)
Unless the Red Sox want to forgo a fifth outfielder -- and thus leave themselves with Mike Cameron as their only outfielder who swings righthanded -- there's not really room for an extra infielder who only plays first base.
Kotchman will turn 27 in February. He's headed into his prime. He has to have some value to someone. The Red Sox either have to play him or move him.
A comparison of DH's
The Yankees' addition of Curtis Granderson, a much-ballyhooed three-team trade that prompted outrage across Red Sox fandom and this call for torches and pitchforks from Dan Shaughnessy:
Storm the gates of Fenway Park. Cancel your NESN package. Stick your head out the window and say, "I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take it anymore!"
As previously discussed in this space, the trade for Granderson made the Yankees only incrementally better -- unless, of course, the move was accompanied a companion move that could help Granderson replace the production of both Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui.
The Yankees have made their companion move. Nick Johnson spent seven seasons in the Yankees' organization before being dealt to Montreal in the Javier Vazquez trade in mid-December of 2003. After 4 1/2 seasons with the Expos/Nationals and half a season with the Florida Marlins, Johnson has signed a one-year deal with the Yankees with a team option for the 2011 season. With Mark Teixeira in place at first for the next generation or so, Johnson will take over for Matsui as the Yankees' full-time designated hitter.
George Steinbrenner's team now will open a season with the more productive designated hitter in the Red Sox-Yankees rivalry for the first time since Terry Francona was Ken Macha's bench coach.
That's right: Johnson goes into next season as a more productive designated hitter than David Ortiz. Consider last year's numbers:
Johnson: .295 batting/.426 on-base/.405 slugging (.831 OPS)
Ortiz: .238 batting/.332 on-base/.462 slugging (.794 OPS)
(Johnson was one of just five players last season whose on-base percentage exceeded their slugging percentage -- and the only one of the group who still slugged .400. Only Chone Figgins' .395/.393 came close.)
Bill James' projections for 2010 give Big Papi a slight edge OPS-wise -- but those projections are predicated on a pretty big bounce-back year from the 34-year-old slugger:
Johnson: .277 batting/.414 on-base/.434 slugging (.848 OPS)
Ortiz: .264 batting/.369 on-base/.519 slugging (.888 OPS)
(If you're with those who believe on-base percentage is a more important facet of OPS than slugging, you don't see Big Papi as having an edge at all.)
Johnson and his career .402 on-base percentage will hit second in the Yankees' lineup, taking the place of Damon and his career .355 on-base percentage. His job will be to get on base in front of Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez and let them drive him in.
Johnson is a miserable base-stealer -- he's 27 for 40 in his career and was caught four of the six times he tried to steal last season. But for those who believe he's going to clog the bases, whatever that means, in front of Rodriguez and Teixeira, consider James' compilation of baserunning numbers from last season. The idea is to track the number of times a player had a chance to take an extra base on a single or double -- and the number of times the player successfully took that extra base.
Here's how Johnson stacks up against the guy he's replacing:
First to third
Johnson: 14 for 40 (35 percent)
Damon: 13 for 32 (41 percent)
Second to home
Johnson: 9 for 23 (39 percent)
Damon: 14 for 21 (67 percent)
First to home
Johnson: 1 for 9 (11 percent)
Damon: 14 for 21 (56 percent)
Johnson isn't exactly a speed demon, especially when it comes to scoring from first base on a line drive to the gap. But he'll certainly hold his own going from first to third on a single, and he's not exactly the base-clogger some would have you believe he is. He even went first to third last season at a better rate than Derek Jeter.
Either way, though, the more he gets on base, the tougher it becomes to pitch through the Yankees' lineup. With Johnson on board, the Yankees don't miss a beat even though they're losing Damon from the top of their lineup. They might even be a little bit better.
Storm the gates of Fenway Park. Cancel your NESN package. Stick your head out the window and say, "I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take it anymore!"
As previously discussed in this space, the trade for Granderson made the Yankees only incrementally better -- unless, of course, the move was accompanied a companion move that could help Granderson replace the production of both Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui.
The Yankees have made their companion move. Nick Johnson spent seven seasons in the Yankees' organization before being dealt to Montreal in the Javier Vazquez trade in mid-December of 2003. After 4 1/2 seasons with the Expos/Nationals and half a season with the Florida Marlins, Johnson has signed a one-year deal with the Yankees with a team option for the 2011 season. With Mark Teixeira in place at first for the next generation or so, Johnson will take over for Matsui as the Yankees' full-time designated hitter.
George Steinbrenner's team now will open a season with the more productive designated hitter in the Red Sox-Yankees rivalry for the first time since Terry Francona was Ken Macha's bench coach.
That's right: Johnson goes into next season as a more productive designated hitter than David Ortiz. Consider last year's numbers:
Johnson: .295 batting/.426 on-base/.405 slugging (.831 OPS)
Ortiz: .238 batting/.332 on-base/.462 slugging (.794 OPS)
(Johnson was one of just five players last season whose on-base percentage exceeded their slugging percentage -- and the only one of the group who still slugged .400. Only Chone Figgins' .395/.393 came close.)
Bill James' projections for 2010 give Big Papi a slight edge OPS-wise -- but those projections are predicated on a pretty big bounce-back year from the 34-year-old slugger:
Johnson: .277 batting/.414 on-base/.434 slugging (.848 OPS)
Ortiz: .264 batting/.369 on-base/.519 slugging (.888 OPS)
(If you're with those who believe on-base percentage is a more important facet of OPS than slugging, you don't see Big Papi as having an edge at all.)
Johnson and his career .402 on-base percentage will hit second in the Yankees' lineup, taking the place of Damon and his career .355 on-base percentage. His job will be to get on base in front of Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez and let them drive him in.
Johnson is a miserable base-stealer -- he's 27 for 40 in his career and was caught four of the six times he tried to steal last season. But for those who believe he's going to clog the bases, whatever that means, in front of Rodriguez and Teixeira, consider James' compilation of baserunning numbers from last season. The idea is to track the number of times a player had a chance to take an extra base on a single or double -- and the number of times the player successfully took that extra base.
Here's how Johnson stacks up against the guy he's replacing:
First to third
Johnson: 14 for 40 (35 percent)
Damon: 13 for 32 (41 percent)
Second to home
Johnson: 9 for 23 (39 percent)
Damon: 14 for 21 (67 percent)
First to home
Johnson: 1 for 9 (11 percent)
Damon: 14 for 21 (56 percent)
Johnson isn't exactly a speed demon, especially when it comes to scoring from first base on a line drive to the gap. But he'll certainly hold his own going from first to third on a single, and he's not exactly the base-clogger some would have you believe he is. He even went first to third last season at a better rate than Derek Jeter.
Either way, though, the more he gets on base, the tougher it becomes to pitch through the Yankees' lineup. With Johnson on board, the Yankees don't miss a beat even though they're losing Damon from the top of their lineup. They might even be a little bit better.
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Next season's batting order
Well, that should just about do it.
The Red Sox have their Opening Day lineup.
Jacoby Ellsbury, CF (L)
Dustin Pedroia, 2B (R)
Victor Martinez, C (S)
Kevin Youkilis, 3B (R)
David Ortiz, DH (L)
Mike Cameron, LF (R)
J.D. Drew, RF (L)
Marco Scutaro, SS (R)
Casey Kotchman, 1B (L)
A couple of notes:
* J.D. Drew and David Ortiz aren't going to hit back-to-back in any lineup Terry Francona writes out. Francona makes a point of breaking up his lefties, especially his lefties in the middle of the batting order. Cameron is a natural fit in the No. 6 hole between Ortiz and Drew, and whether Ortiz or Drew hits fifth might be determined by how good each guy looks coming out of spring training.
* Barring any dramatic moves -- and the Red Sox appear to be out of the running for Adrian Beltre -- Casey Kotchman will open next season at first base for the Red Sox. Kotchman, who swings lefthanded, either would have to hit back-to-back with Drew at No. 7/8 in the batting order or with Jacoby Ellsbury at No. 9/1. A cursory look at each guy's career righty-lefty splits tells the story:
Drew: .925 OPS vs RHP/.804 OPS vs. LHP
Ellsbury: .764/.764
Kotchman: .751/.712
Ortiz: .964/.819
If an opponent is going to bring in a southpaw specialist to face back-to-back lefties in the Red Sox lineup, Francona would want him to do so against Kotchman and Ellsbury -- the two with the least dramatic platoon splits. Ellsbury actually has exactly the same OPS against lefties as he does against righties.
The bottom of the Red Sox lineup for much of last season usually consisted of Nick Green and Jason Varitek. Kotchman has shown flashes of being an on-base guy -- he OBP'ed .354 with the Atlanta Braves before he was traded and relegated to part-time duty -- and Scutaro always has been. The Red Sox might not lead the major leagues in home runs, but they certainly don't have any automatic outs in their lineup.
The Red Sox have their Opening Day lineup.
Jacoby Ellsbury, CF (L)
Dustin Pedroia, 2B (R)
Victor Martinez, C (S)
Kevin Youkilis, 3B (R)
David Ortiz, DH (L)
Mike Cameron, LF (R)
J.D. Drew, RF (L)
Marco Scutaro, SS (R)
Casey Kotchman, 1B (L)
A couple of notes:
* J.D. Drew and David Ortiz aren't going to hit back-to-back in any lineup Terry Francona writes out. Francona makes a point of breaking up his lefties, especially his lefties in the middle of the batting order. Cameron is a natural fit in the No. 6 hole between Ortiz and Drew, and whether Ortiz or Drew hits fifth might be determined by how good each guy looks coming out of spring training.
* Barring any dramatic moves -- and the Red Sox appear to be out of the running for Adrian Beltre -- Casey Kotchman will open next season at first base for the Red Sox. Kotchman, who swings lefthanded, either would have to hit back-to-back with Drew at No. 7/8 in the batting order or with Jacoby Ellsbury at No. 9/1. A cursory look at each guy's career righty-lefty splits tells the story:
Drew: .925 OPS vs RHP/.804 OPS vs. LHP
Ellsbury: .764/.764
Kotchman: .751/.712
Ortiz: .964/.819
If an opponent is going to bring in a southpaw specialist to face back-to-back lefties in the Red Sox lineup, Francona would want him to do so against Kotchman and Ellsbury -- the two with the least dramatic platoon splits. Ellsbury actually has exactly the same OPS against lefties as he does against righties.
The bottom of the Red Sox lineup for much of last season usually consisted of Nick Green and Jason Varitek. Kotchman has shown flashes of being an on-base guy -- he OBP'ed .354 with the Atlanta Braves before he was traded and relegated to part-time duty -- and Scutaro always has been. The Red Sox might not lead the major leagues in home runs, but they certainly don't have any automatic outs in their lineup.
Monday, October 12, 2009
Upgrading the defense and hitting on the road
The question was a terrific one from Baseball Prospectus' David Laurila to Theo Epstein at a postmortem press conference at Fenway Park today: The Rays last year got a lot better in part because they greatly upgraded their defense. This year, the Angels got a lot better because they greatly improved their on-base percentage. What do you need to do next year? Which area needs to be upgraded the most?
"You probably start with your weaknesses because there's the greatest room for improvement there," Epstein said. "If you look back at this year's club, we weren't the defensive club we wanted to be. There is room for improvement with our overall team defense, our defensive efficiency. Offense on the road. We didn't really hit on the road at all this year. We'll take a look at seeing if there's a way to improve that a little bit."
There's one move that can upgrade the Red Sox in both areas.
Defensive efficiency
The usefulness of advanced defensive statistics still is up for debate. It's tough to argue, though, that they aren't more valuable than the antiquated system of errors and fielding percentage. The Red Sox finished the season as a middle-of-the-pack defensive team according to Ultimate Zone Rating, their minus-17.2 ranking them just ahead of the Yankees but miles behind the Angels and Rays.
The trouble areas have been well-documented in this space already, but just for the sake of simplicity, below are the final UZR numbers for the Red Sox regulars:
Dustin Pedroia, 2B: 10.2
J.D. Drew, RF: 9.7
Alex Gonzalez, SS: 4.4
Casey Kotchman, 1B: 4.3
Kevin Youkilis, 1B: 4.3
Jed Lowrie, SS: 3.7
Nick Green, SS: 3.6
Victor Martinez, 1B: minus-1.1
Kevin Youkilis, 1B: minus-1.3
Mike Lowell, 3B: minus-10.6
Jason Bay, LF: minus-13.9
Jacoby Ellsbury, CF: minus-16.5*
David Ortiz, DH: Plays no defense
* Quibble with it all you want, but the fact remains that the speedy Ellsbury still doesn't break on the ball as well as he could -- especially on fly balls hit in front of him.
Offense on the road
If you want to get really simple, you can line up the Red Sox players expected play regularly next season -- eliminating Nick Green and Jason Varitek from the equation -- and subtract their road OPS from their home OPS to see who saw the greatest benefit from hitting at Fenway Park this season:
(Home/Road)
Mike Lowell: 932/713: 219
David Ortiz: 880/703: 177
Dustin Pedroia: 903/736: 167
J.D. Drew: 991/844: 147
Jacoby Ellsbury: 802/742: 60
Kevin Youkilis: 992/933: 59
Jason Bay: 936/904: 32
Victor Martinez: 744/1024: minus-280
(Beware: Martinez only played for the Red Sox for two months.)
What we've learned
Two players stick out above. Two players hit substantially worse on the road than at home and brought either nothing or negative production to the table defensively. Two players, if replaced, could represent an upgrade in both of those areas.
Those two players are Mike Lowell and David Ortiz. Both Lowell and Ortiz have tattooed the Green Monster throughout their Red Sox careers with doubles that would be fly balls anywhere else. Just check out their respective hit charts from this season:
Mike Lowell
"You probably start with your weaknesses because there's the greatest room for improvement there," Epstein said. "If you look back at this year's club, we weren't the defensive club we wanted to be. There is room for improvement with our overall team defense, our defensive efficiency. Offense on the road. We didn't really hit on the road at all this year. We'll take a look at seeing if there's a way to improve that a little bit."
There's one move that can upgrade the Red Sox in both areas.
Defensive efficiency
The usefulness of advanced defensive statistics still is up for debate. It's tough to argue, though, that they aren't more valuable than the antiquated system of errors and fielding percentage. The Red Sox finished the season as a middle-of-the-pack defensive team according to Ultimate Zone Rating, their minus-17.2 ranking them just ahead of the Yankees but miles behind the Angels and Rays.
The trouble areas have been well-documented in this space already, but just for the sake of simplicity, below are the final UZR numbers for the Red Sox regulars:
Dustin Pedroia, 2B: 10.2
J.D. Drew, RF: 9.7
Alex Gonzalez, SS: 4.4
Casey Kotchman, 1B: 4.3
Kevin Youkilis, 1B: 4.3
Jed Lowrie, SS: 3.7
Nick Green, SS: 3.6
Victor Martinez, 1B: minus-1.1
Kevin Youkilis, 1B: minus-1.3
Mike Lowell, 3B: minus-10.6
Jason Bay, LF: minus-13.9
Jacoby Ellsbury, CF: minus-16.5*
David Ortiz, DH: Plays no defense
* Quibble with it all you want, but the fact remains that the speedy Ellsbury still doesn't break on the ball as well as he could -- especially on fly balls hit in front of him.
Offense on the road
If you want to get really simple, you can line up the Red Sox players expected play regularly next season -- eliminating Nick Green and Jason Varitek from the equation -- and subtract their road OPS from their home OPS to see who saw the greatest benefit from hitting at Fenway Park this season:
(Home/Road)
Mike Lowell: 932/713: 219
David Ortiz: 880/703: 177
Dustin Pedroia: 903/736: 167
J.D. Drew: 991/844: 147
Jacoby Ellsbury: 802/742: 60
Kevin Youkilis: 992/933: 59
Jason Bay: 936/904: 32
Victor Martinez: 744/1024: minus-280
(Beware: Martinez only played for the Red Sox for two months.)
What we've learned
Two players stick out above. Two players hit substantially worse on the road than at home and brought either nothing or negative production to the table defensively. Two players, if replaced, could represent an upgrade in both of those areas.
Those two players are Mike Lowell and David Ortiz. Both Lowell and Ortiz have tattooed the Green Monster throughout their Red Sox careers with doubles that would be fly balls anywhere else. Just check out their respective hit charts from this season:
Mike Lowell
David Ortiz
Those two players, however, are going to be awfully difficult to ship elsewhere.
Ortiz, you can rule out almost immediately. The aging designated hitter endured an epic slump in April and May, and while he bounced back in June, he didn't exactly look like his old self. (His post-June 1 on-base percentage of .356 would have ranked him 39th in the American League had it been his total for the season.) Oh, and he can't play a defensive position.
Lowell, on the other hand, is a different story. He can play a defensive position -- albeit with spectacularly limited range -- and showed this season that he still can hit when his hip gets adequate rest. A team needing a third baseman certainly might listen to a sales pitch for Lowell if the Red Sox were willing to pick up quite a bit of the $12.5 million due him next season. Seattle, a team that might be losing Adrian Beltre to free agency, might be a fit; the Cardinals, who will have to decide what to do with Mark DeRosa, might be another.
Don't be surprised if Epstein shops Lowell this offseason.
The key, then, would be to find a replacement who represented an upgrade defensively and who can hit anywhere. An upgrade in the field shouldn't be too difficult: Among third basemen this season, only the Mets' David Wright had a worse UZR (minus-10.9). Several infielders available on the market could represent an upgrade on Lowell:
DeRosa
Defense: The well-traveled veteran has played almost everywhere in his career, settling in mostly at second base in back-to-back seasons with the Cubs but playing mostly third base this season with the Indians and Cardinals. He had an UZR of minus-6.0 and a Fielding Bible plus-minus rating of minus-12 -- mostly due to ground balls either straight on or to his left.
Hitting anywhere: DeRosa this season had a .700 OPS in home games and an .804 OPS on the road. In his there months with the Indians, he was a dramatically better hitter at home -- but in his three months with the Cardinals, he was a dramatically better hitter on the road.
Chone Figgins
Defense: According to UZR, only Evan Longoria and Ryan Zimmerman had a better season at third base than Figgins. According to the Fielding Bible's plus-minus, no one had a better season at third base than Figgins. The Fielding Bible had Figgins at a sensational plus-40 for the season -- including plus-23 on ground balls to his left.
Hitting anywhere: Figgins had a .795 OPS at home this season and a .783 OPS on the road, not enough of a difference to tell you anything. In his career, the difference is even smaller: He's OPS'ed .754 at home and .748 on the road. He can, it seems, hit anywhere.
Marco Scutaro
Defense: A year ago, Scutaro put up a Fielding Bible plus-17 at third base after replacing the injured Scott Rolen there, including a plus-11 on ground balls to his left. This season, he put up a plus-16 at shortstop, including a plus-14 on ground balls to his left. Ultimate Zone Rating had him as a spectacular defensive third baseman two years ago but an average shortstop this season. Either way, though, it seems clear he's an average defender -- at worst -- at both shortstop and third base.
Hitting anywhere: Scutaro OPS'ed .834 on the road this season and .734 at home. In his career, he has OPS'ed .706 at Rogers Centre in Toronto but .737 everywhere else. He can hit anywhere.
What does that tell us?
It tells us something we really already know: The Red Sox would be a more complete team next season with either Figgins or Scutaro playing third base than with Lowell -- but that doesn't mean it'll be easy to find a taker for Lowell.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Fun with numbers: David Ortiz
A little player comparison for your afternoon. Below are the numbers of two prominent players since June 1 -- one of whom should be relatively easy for Red Sox fans to identify:
Player A
* .265 batting average, .357 on-base, .558 slugging
* 27 home runs, 77 RBI
* 50 walks, 79 strikeouts
Player B
* .300 batting average, .386 on-base, .551 slugging
* 22 home runs, 76 RBI
* 52 walks, 76 strikeouts
Player B has a significantly higher batting average and on-base percentage. Player A has a slight edge in power numbers -- more home runs, more RBI and a higher slugging percentage. The walk numbers and strikeout numbers for the two players are almost identical.
Player A, of course, is the resurgent David Ortiz.
Player B?
Any guesses?
(Cue Jeopardy music.)
It's Mark Teixeira.
Player A
* .265 batting average, .357 on-base, .558 slugging
* 27 home runs, 77 RBI
* 50 walks, 79 strikeouts
Player B
* .300 batting average, .386 on-base, .551 slugging
* 22 home runs, 76 RBI
* 52 walks, 76 strikeouts
Player B has a significantly higher batting average and on-base percentage. Player A has a slight edge in power numbers -- more home runs, more RBI and a higher slugging percentage. The walk numbers and strikeout numbers for the two players are almost identical.
Player A, of course, is the resurgent David Ortiz.
Player B?
Any guesses?
(Cue Jeopardy music.)
It's Mark Teixeira.
Sunday, September 27, 2009
In some ways, Ortiz was never out of style
(This story only appeared in the print edition of Sunday's UL.)
NEW YORK – David Ortiz sat at his locker late Friday night, showered and changed and ready to go. The last thing he did was lean over to lace up an ostentatious pair of blue shoes.
Ortiz couldn’t always pull off his blue shoes. Big Papi might be Big Papi, but blue shoes make a certain statement you can’t really make when half your team’s fan base is calling for your indefinite benching. But no one is calling for that benching anymore.
Ortiz often walks into the Red Sox locker room these days making a far less subtle fashion statement: He wears a navy blue shirt adorned with the slogan, “Don’t call it a comeback.” It’s a lyric from LL Cool J’s “Mama Said Knock You Out,” and the meaning as it applies to Ortiz isn’t exactly subtle: “Don’t call it a comeback/I been here for years.”
Ortiz, with an almost inexplicable lack of fanfare, has turned what looked like a disastrous season into something more than respectable: His 27 home runs entering play Saturday rank him behind only 17 hitters in the American League – and within striking distance of names like Joe Mauer and Alex Rodriguez.
Before going hitless on Sunday, he’d hit home runs in three straight games. Against Joba Chamberlain on Friday, he deposited a fastball on the outside corner into the left-field grandstand at Yankee Stadium. It was the first opposite-field home run he’d hit away from Fenway Park this season.
But his midsummer resurgence isn’t entirely a comeback, either. In some ways, he’s done for the Red Sox lineup this season just what he’s always done. He’s drawing walks at the same rate as he did in 2003 and 2004, and he’s seeing more pitches per at-bat this season than at any point in his Red Sox tenure.
“When I hit, good things happen,” he said. “I guess sometimes I take pressure off the guys when I do my thing out there.”
He spoke at length before Friday’s game about how a switch back to his Little League mindset had resurrected his joy for the game and eased his mind amidst the tumult around him. Easing his mind, certainly, had something to do with the surge in his production.
But his approach at the plate never really changed. The refusal of pitchers to give him anything to hit never changed. The fact that he could grind out six- or seven-pitch at-bats never changed.
Only 15 hitters in the American League have seen fewer pitches in the strike zone this season than Ortiz, and only five have seen more pitches per plate appearance than he has.
That’s a testament to his refusal to surrender to the slump. Not every hitter can stay that patient when frustration mounts with every out and with every swing and miss.
“You’re fighting yourself: ‘Man, that was my pitch,’” said left fielder Jason Bay, who endured his own slump right around the time Ortiz was heating up. “All of a sudden, boom, there’s another one, and then you’re way behind. It happens to everybody, but when you’re scuffling, it makes it even tougher because you know you’re only going to get a pitch or two per at-bat to put a good swing on. If you take it or miss it, you’re 0-2 before you even step in.”
Only the results were lacking.
“Part of our fight early on was to be patient,” Red Sox manager Terry Francona said. “People were calling for David to retire, to pack it in. There were a lot of nasty things said about him – and he had a really bad two months.”
But the Red Sox stuck with him. Part of the reason was because he still was getting on base: Among Red Sox players, only Dustin Pedroia drew more walks than Ortiz in the month of May – even while the designated hitter was hitting .143.
Ortiz actually reached base via hit, walk or hit-by-pitch in 21 straight games in late April and early May, right in the middle of his slump. He drove in 11 runs and scored 11 runs in that span.
“If you’re not getting hits, you’re still trying to get on base or drive a guy in with a groundout or something, anything you can do,” Bay said. “Over the course of a season, there’s not too many guys who are going to be right here” – he drew a horizontal line in the air – “with a hit or two a game. It’s hots and colds, and for some people, it’s hotter and colder.”
Ortiz, all of a sudden, has the same batting average this September that he had in September of 2006, and he has an better OPS (on-base plus slugging) in September than he did a year ago.
It’s not a comeback. He’s been doing that for years.
NEW YORK – David Ortiz sat at his locker late Friday night, showered and changed and ready to go. The last thing he did was lean over to lace up an ostentatious pair of blue shoes.
Ortiz couldn’t always pull off his blue shoes. Big Papi might be Big Papi, but blue shoes make a certain statement you can’t really make when half your team’s fan base is calling for your indefinite benching. But no one is calling for that benching anymore.
Ortiz often walks into the Red Sox locker room these days making a far less subtle fashion statement: He wears a navy blue shirt adorned with the slogan, “Don’t call it a comeback.” It’s a lyric from LL Cool J’s “Mama Said Knock You Out,” and the meaning as it applies to Ortiz isn’t exactly subtle: “Don’t call it a comeback/I been here for years.”
Ortiz, with an almost inexplicable lack of fanfare, has turned what looked like a disastrous season into something more than respectable: His 27 home runs entering play Saturday rank him behind only 17 hitters in the American League – and within striking distance of names like Joe Mauer and Alex Rodriguez.
Before going hitless on Sunday, he’d hit home runs in three straight games. Against Joba Chamberlain on Friday, he deposited a fastball on the outside corner into the left-field grandstand at Yankee Stadium. It was the first opposite-field home run he’d hit away from Fenway Park this season.
But his midsummer resurgence isn’t entirely a comeback, either. In some ways, he’s done for the Red Sox lineup this season just what he’s always done. He’s drawing walks at the same rate as he did in 2003 and 2004, and he’s seeing more pitches per at-bat this season than at any point in his Red Sox tenure.
“When I hit, good things happen,” he said. “I guess sometimes I take pressure off the guys when I do my thing out there.”
He spoke at length before Friday’s game about how a switch back to his Little League mindset had resurrected his joy for the game and eased his mind amidst the tumult around him. Easing his mind, certainly, had something to do with the surge in his production.
But his approach at the plate never really changed. The refusal of pitchers to give him anything to hit never changed. The fact that he could grind out six- or seven-pitch at-bats never changed.
Only 15 hitters in the American League have seen fewer pitches in the strike zone this season than Ortiz, and only five have seen more pitches per plate appearance than he has.
That’s a testament to his refusal to surrender to the slump. Not every hitter can stay that patient when frustration mounts with every out and with every swing and miss.
“You’re fighting yourself: ‘Man, that was my pitch,’” said left fielder Jason Bay, who endured his own slump right around the time Ortiz was heating up. “All of a sudden, boom, there’s another one, and then you’re way behind. It happens to everybody, but when you’re scuffling, it makes it even tougher because you know you’re only going to get a pitch or two per at-bat to put a good swing on. If you take it or miss it, you’re 0-2 before you even step in.”
Only the results were lacking.
“Part of our fight early on was to be patient,” Red Sox manager Terry Francona said. “People were calling for David to retire, to pack it in. There were a lot of nasty things said about him – and he had a really bad two months.”
But the Red Sox stuck with him. Part of the reason was because he still was getting on base: Among Red Sox players, only Dustin Pedroia drew more walks than Ortiz in the month of May – even while the designated hitter was hitting .143.
Ortiz actually reached base via hit, walk or hit-by-pitch in 21 straight games in late April and early May, right in the middle of his slump. He drove in 11 runs and scored 11 runs in that span.
“If you’re not getting hits, you’re still trying to get on base or drive a guy in with a groundout or something, anything you can do,” Bay said. “Over the course of a season, there’s not too many guys who are going to be right here” – he drew a horizontal line in the air – “with a hit or two a game. It’s hots and colds, and for some people, it’s hotter and colder.”
Ortiz, all of a sudden, has the same batting average this September that he had in September of 2006, and he has an better OPS (on-base plus slugging) in September than he did a year ago.
It’s not a comeback. He’s been doing that for years.
Friday, September 25, 2009
David Ortiz lives
David Ortiz has more home runs this season than Kevin Youkilis.
Think about that.
Ortiz hit his first home run in mid-May, an occasion that prompted celebration and bad poetry across the lane. It wasn't until his fifth home run of the season that the Fenway Park crowd didn't summon him back for a curtain call to celebrate a feat that once had been routine.
Since June 1, though, Ortiz has 25 home runs -- including a home run in each of his last two games. He's hit six home runs against lefties. He's hit nine home runs on the road. He's hit two home runs on the first pitch, and he's hit two home runs out of a full count. He's hit 14 solo home runs. He's hit 11 two-out home runs. He's hit four home runs in the first inning. He's hit two home runs in the ninth inning.
(He'll have a chance to add to that total this weekend as he takes aim at the short porch in Yankee Stadium's right field.)
He's doing, in short, exactly what Red Sox manager Terry Francona has hoped all season he would do.
"Part of our fight early on was to be patient," he said. "People were calling for David to retire, to pack it in. There were a lot nasty things said about him -- and he had a really bad two months. But to his credit, and I don't know his numbers as well as I should, but I think he's got like 25 home runs (since June 1).
"The other thing that's happened is that we've dropped him in the order, so it's lengthened out our batting order. Youk and Jason Bay and those guys have become mainstays in the middle, and David has hit down a little lower, and it's given us a thicker batting order."
What got a little lost during the slump is that Ortiz all along has given the Red Sox some thickness to the batting order. He hasn't given at-bats away all season. For a team that thrives on wearing down pitchers by grinding out at-bats, Ortiz has remained a key component.
Only five players -- Youkilis, Nick Swisher, Jack Cust, Chone Figgins and Bobby Abreu -- have seen more pitches per plate appearance this season than Ortiz's 4.18. That number hasn't fluctuated much, either: Even before he hit his second home run of the season in early June, he still was seeing more than 4.0 pitches per plate appearance.
No Red Sox regular this season -- not Youkilis, not Bay, not Victor Martinez -- has seen fewer pitches in the strike zone this season than Ortiz. Even as the designated hitter was enduring an epic slump, American League pitchers had no desire to challenge him -- and he's now showing why.
Think about that.
Ortiz hit his first home run in mid-May, an occasion that prompted celebration and bad poetry across the lane. It wasn't until his fifth home run of the season that the Fenway Park crowd didn't summon him back for a curtain call to celebrate a feat that once had been routine.
Since June 1, though, Ortiz has 25 home runs -- including a home run in each of his last two games. He's hit six home runs against lefties. He's hit nine home runs on the road. He's hit two home runs on the first pitch, and he's hit two home runs out of a full count. He's hit 14 solo home runs. He's hit 11 two-out home runs. He's hit four home runs in the first inning. He's hit two home runs in the ninth inning.
(He'll have a chance to add to that total this weekend as he takes aim at the short porch in Yankee Stadium's right field.)
He's doing, in short, exactly what Red Sox manager Terry Francona has hoped all season he would do.
"Part of our fight early on was to be patient," he said. "People were calling for David to retire, to pack it in. There were a lot nasty things said about him -- and he had a really bad two months. But to his credit, and I don't know his numbers as well as I should, but I think he's got like 25 home runs (since June 1).
"The other thing that's happened is that we've dropped him in the order, so it's lengthened out our batting order. Youk and Jason Bay and those guys have become mainstays in the middle, and David has hit down a little lower, and it's given us a thicker batting order."
What got a little lost during the slump is that Ortiz all along has given the Red Sox some thickness to the batting order. He hasn't given at-bats away all season. For a team that thrives on wearing down pitchers by grinding out at-bats, Ortiz has remained a key component.
Only five players -- Youkilis, Nick Swisher, Jack Cust, Chone Figgins and Bobby Abreu -- have seen more pitches per plate appearance this season than Ortiz's 4.18. That number hasn't fluctuated much, either: Even before he hit his second home run of the season in early June, he still was seeing more than 4.0 pitches per plate appearance.
No Red Sox regular this season -- not Youkilis, not Bay, not Victor Martinez -- has seen fewer pitches in the strike zone this season than Ortiz. Even as the designated hitter was enduring an epic slump, American League pitchers had no desire to challenge him -- and he's now showing why.
Saturday, August 15, 2009
The optimal Red Sox lineup
Kevin Youkilis will return from his suspension on Tuesday in Toronto and bring with him one of the best bats in the Red Sox lineup. His return, though, will make things even more challenging for Red Sox manager Terry Francona in his effort to juggle playing time for the weapons at his disposal.
We can hold a few truths to be self-evident:
1. Jason Bay, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Victor Martinez, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis should be in the Red Sox lineup just about every single day.
2. Neither Alex Gonzalez, acquired Friday from Cincinnati, or Nick Green should be hitting higher than ninth in the lineup.
3. Casey Kotchman is a terrific defensive first baseman.
4. Red Sox pitchers, particularly Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, love throwing to Jason Varitek.
5. Mike Lowell and David Ortiz both are getting older and slower and bring varying degrees of effectiveness with the bat -- and both have significant numbers left on their contracts
The issue facing Francona right now revolves mostly around first base, catcher and designated hitter. Ortiz and Varitek each have a long history with Francona and with the Red Sox, but neither is swinging anything resembling a productive bat. Mike Lowell is swinging a hotter bat than anyone on the team but doesn't have adequate range to play third base every day. Casey Kotchman is a fairly average hitter but can really, really pick it at first base.
But with Victor Martinez an everyday presence, only two of the four can play every day.
Who should it be?
Here's how they stack up this year against lefties...
Lowell: .903 OPS
Varitek: .872
Ortiz: .720
Kotchman: .634
... and against righties:
Lowell: .818 OPS
Kotchman: .806
Varitek: .719
Ortiz: .696
It really is that simple.
Lowell should be DH'ing every day. Varitek should catch primarily against lefties and sit primarily against lefties, though his rapport with Josh Beckett and Jon Lester ought to have something to do with it, too.
Kotchman should sit against lefties and play against righties. Ortiz should be a formidable lefthanded bat off the bench who can give opposing managers pause when they're thinking about bringing in a right to face the bottom of the Red Sox lineup.
Youkilis will be back Tuesday. We'll see how Francona plays it.
We can hold a few truths to be self-evident:
1. Jason Bay, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Victor Martinez, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis should be in the Red Sox lineup just about every single day.
2. Neither Alex Gonzalez, acquired Friday from Cincinnati, or Nick Green should be hitting higher than ninth in the lineup.
3. Casey Kotchman is a terrific defensive first baseman.
4. Red Sox pitchers, particularly Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, love throwing to Jason Varitek.
5. Mike Lowell and David Ortiz both are getting older and slower and bring varying degrees of effectiveness with the bat -- and both have significant numbers left on their contracts
The issue facing Francona right now revolves mostly around first base, catcher and designated hitter. Ortiz and Varitek each have a long history with Francona and with the Red Sox, but neither is swinging anything resembling a productive bat. Mike Lowell is swinging a hotter bat than anyone on the team but doesn't have adequate range to play third base every day. Casey Kotchman is a fairly average hitter but can really, really pick it at first base.
But with Victor Martinez an everyday presence, only two of the four can play every day.
Who should it be?
Here's how they stack up this year against lefties...
Lowell: .903 OPS
Varitek: .872
Ortiz: .720
Kotchman: .634
... and against righties:
Lowell: .818 OPS
Kotchman: .806
Varitek: .719
Ortiz: .696
It really is that simple.
Lowell should be DH'ing every day. Varitek should catch primarily against lefties and sit primarily against lefties, though his rapport with Josh Beckett and Jon Lester ought to have something to do with it, too.
Kotchman should sit against lefties and play against righties. Ortiz should be a formidable lefthanded bat off the bench who can give opposing managers pause when they're thinking about bringing in a right to face the bottom of the Red Sox lineup.
Youkilis will be back Tuesday. We'll see how Francona plays it.
Sunday, August 9, 2009
It's time to let the steroid thing go
We now have two choices in the aftermath of David Ortiz's "I'm innocent, but I'm not 100 percent sure why" press conference at Yankee Stadium:
1. We can pay close attention as more and more lawyers illegally leak names and as the union pursues every legal remedy to prove that no players actually did anything wrong.
2. We can let the whole thing go.
Look, everyone did something, and we're learning more and more that not everyone who did something injected themselves with a needle. Bronson Arroyo told the Boston Herald's Michael Silverman that he used androstenedione from 1998 until testing began in 2003 -- but he didn't really even stop then until he heard a rumor that it might be laced with steroids and thus turn an otherwise clean sample into a positive test.
By 2004, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration had banned the sale of androstenedione and lumped it in with anabolic steroids, and that meant a positive test for Andro meant a positive test for performance-enhancing drugs.
"Before 2004, none of us paid any attention to anything we took," he told the Herald. "Now they don't want us to take anything unless it's approved. But back then, who knows what was in stuff? The FDA wasn't regulating stuff, not unless it was killing people or people were dying from it."
Andro, though, isn't an anabolic steroid. (To be an anabolic steroid, something must directly promote cell growth; the very definition of anabolism describes "the constructive part of metabolism.") Andro is what's called a "prohormone," a substance that has little hormonal affect itself but is intended to be a percursor to -- and have similar but not identical effects to -- anabolic steroids.
The possession and use of anabolic steroids has been illegal in the United States since Congress enacted the Controlled Substances Act in 1970. The possession and use of Andro has been illegal in the United States since the FDA deemed it illegal in 2004.
To sum up:
1. If you use anabolic steroids, you were always cheating.
2. If you use Andro, you weren't cheating until 2004 but would be cheating now.
3. If you use human growth hormone, an amino acid with so few negative side effects it's used as a therapy by both children and adults, you're sort of cheating, but no one has a good test to discover if you're cheating or not, anyway.
4. If you use creatine -- such as in EAS strength-building products, supplements that build muscle mass and enhance recovery time with only slight health risks, supplements endorsed by the Phillies' Chase Utley and football players Matt Hasselbeck and Brady Quinn -- you're not cheating.
If you're not confused, well, you're smarter than I am.
In theory, the health risks are what determine what's illegal and what isn't -- but Hank Aaron isn't saying steroid use is wrong because he's worried about the adverse health affects of Barry Bonds or David Ortiz. He's worried about his legacy and his records. Baseball officials are worried about the legacy of the game itself -- or, at least, the public perception of that legacy.
Look at it this way: Use of androstenedione and other steroid precursors wasn't outlawed until 2004, and even the ban on anabolic steroids wasn't enforced until 104 -- or 96 or 83 or whatever number you'd like to believe -- players tested positive for a performance enhancer of some kind.
There were rules. There was just no enforcement.
Imagine if there were speed limits posted all over the roads but zero police officers out there enforcing them, and you could get a tangible benefit -- I don't know, a raise -- from getting to work faster every day. Driving too fast much put your health at risk a little bit, but there were no legal ramifications to driving 80 instead of 70 on I-93 or I-95.
Would you do it? Would you speed?
Silly question, of course. You already do, anyway.
Baseball players are like anyone else: They're going to do whatever they can to maximize their production and get that edge over their competition so they can make the most money they can before their time runs out. Some players probably chose not to use performance enhancers, and those players probably didn't get to the major leagues.
Here's another one:
1. Amphetamines have been banned in baseball, and their removal from clubhouses has been seen as a way of purifying the game. Amphetamines have limited negative side effects, however, unless they're abused.
2. Every player on every team these days drinks Full Throttle or Amp or Red Bull or Five-Hour Energy before every game. Dustin Pedroia usually drinks two.
3. Every human being in the world drinks coffee before work.
Heck, players still take cortisone shots all the time to get themselves back on the field faster. Not only is cortisone a steroid hormone, but it has adverse health effects: It masks pain, and pain is the natural sensation of the body announcing that you should stop doing something because you're doing damage to your muscles or ligaments or bones.
That certainly enhances performance. But if you wanted to get really radical and ban cortisone shots, where would you draw the line? Advil?
Mark McGwire mostly is villified because he used Andro back in 1998 -- six years before it was illegal to use Andro. David Ortiz had to stand up at a press conference and announce that he didn't use "steroids" -- but, then again, he wasn't sure what he did use.
We can try to wrap our heads around it if we feel ambitious.
The easier choice might just be to let the whole thing go.
1. We can pay close attention as more and more lawyers illegally leak names and as the union pursues every legal remedy to prove that no players actually did anything wrong.
2. We can let the whole thing go.
Look, everyone did something, and we're learning more and more that not everyone who did something injected themselves with a needle. Bronson Arroyo told the Boston Herald's Michael Silverman that he used androstenedione from 1998 until testing began in 2003 -- but he didn't really even stop then until he heard a rumor that it might be laced with steroids and thus turn an otherwise clean sample into a positive test.
By 2004, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration had banned the sale of androstenedione and lumped it in with anabolic steroids, and that meant a positive test for Andro meant a positive test for performance-enhancing drugs.
"Before 2004, none of us paid any attention to anything we took," he told the Herald. "Now they don't want us to take anything unless it's approved. But back then, who knows what was in stuff? The FDA wasn't regulating stuff, not unless it was killing people or people were dying from it."
Andro, though, isn't an anabolic steroid. (To be an anabolic steroid, something must directly promote cell growth; the very definition of anabolism describes "the constructive part of metabolism.") Andro is what's called a "prohormone," a substance that has little hormonal affect itself but is intended to be a percursor to -- and have similar but not identical effects to -- anabolic steroids.
The possession and use of anabolic steroids has been illegal in the United States since Congress enacted the Controlled Substances Act in 1970. The possession and use of Andro has been illegal in the United States since the FDA deemed it illegal in 2004.
To sum up:
1. If you use anabolic steroids, you were always cheating.
2. If you use Andro, you weren't cheating until 2004 but would be cheating now.
3. If you use human growth hormone, an amino acid with so few negative side effects it's used as a therapy by both children and adults, you're sort of cheating, but no one has a good test to discover if you're cheating or not, anyway.
4. If you use creatine -- such as in EAS strength-building products, supplements that build muscle mass and enhance recovery time with only slight health risks, supplements endorsed by the Phillies' Chase Utley and football players Matt Hasselbeck and Brady Quinn -- you're not cheating.
If you're not confused, well, you're smarter than I am.
In theory, the health risks are what determine what's illegal and what isn't -- but Hank Aaron isn't saying steroid use is wrong because he's worried about the adverse health affects of Barry Bonds or David Ortiz. He's worried about his legacy and his records. Baseball officials are worried about the legacy of the game itself -- or, at least, the public perception of that legacy.
Look at it this way: Use of androstenedione and other steroid precursors wasn't outlawed until 2004, and even the ban on anabolic steroids wasn't enforced until 104 -- or 96 or 83 or whatever number you'd like to believe -- players tested positive for a performance enhancer of some kind.
There were rules. There was just no enforcement.
Imagine if there were speed limits posted all over the roads but zero police officers out there enforcing them, and you could get a tangible benefit -- I don't know, a raise -- from getting to work faster every day. Driving too fast much put your health at risk a little bit, but there were no legal ramifications to driving 80 instead of 70 on I-93 or I-95.
Would you do it? Would you speed?
Silly question, of course. You already do, anyway.
Baseball players are like anyone else: They're going to do whatever they can to maximize their production and get that edge over their competition so they can make the most money they can before their time runs out. Some players probably chose not to use performance enhancers, and those players probably didn't get to the major leagues.
Here's another one:
1. Amphetamines have been banned in baseball, and their removal from clubhouses has been seen as a way of purifying the game. Amphetamines have limited negative side effects, however, unless they're abused.
2. Every player on every team these days drinks Full Throttle or Amp or Red Bull or Five-Hour Energy before every game. Dustin Pedroia usually drinks two.
3. Every human being in the world drinks coffee before work.
Heck, players still take cortisone shots all the time to get themselves back on the field faster. Not only is cortisone a steroid hormone, but it has adverse health effects: It masks pain, and pain is the natural sensation of the body announcing that you should stop doing something because you're doing damage to your muscles or ligaments or bones.
That certainly enhances performance. But if you wanted to get really radical and ban cortisone shots, where would you draw the line? Advil?
Mark McGwire mostly is villified because he used Andro back in 1998 -- six years before it was illegal to use Andro. David Ortiz had to stand up at a press conference and announce that he didn't use "steroids" -- but, then again, he wasn't sure what he did use.
We can try to wrap our heads around it if we feel ambitious.
The easier choice might just be to let the whole thing go.
Sunday, August 2, 2009
Big Papi in midst of big slide
It was 2 1/2 months ago that David Ortiz went a woeful 0-for-7 in a 12-inning loss to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, the worst game of his worst season as a professional baseball player. It was minutes after that game that he uttered the memorable line, "Just put down, 'Papi stinks.'" It was less than two weeks later that Terry Francona dropped him out of the No. 3 spot in the batting order for the first time in almost exactly four years. It was as bad as it could possibly get.
Well, it's that bad again. David Ortiz went 0-for-5 on Sunday against the Baltimore Orioles and left an astounding 10 runners on base:
* He popped to shallow left field with the bases loaded in the first;
* He drew a walk with the bases loaded in the second;
* He lined out to second with two on in the fourth;
* He rolled into a double play with the bases loaded in the sixth;
* He grounded out to first with a runner on second in the eighth.
He had a chance to drive home 13 runs in the game -- 18 if you include the possibility of home runs -- and he drove in just one. (The double play did plate a run, but if you're going to argue that the double play was a productive at-bat is grasping at straws.)
Now that Victor Martinez is in the fold and ready to rake, it's again time to wonder if David Ortiz might best serve the Red Sox by playing only against righthanded pitchers -- and, even then, maybe not against all righthanded pitchers. The only problem is that Martinez, too, has had to endure a pretty epic slump through the month of July.
Consider these numbers:
* Ortiz this July: .247/.306/.539
* Ortiz in July in his career: .314/.410/.617
(He has no month in which he has a higher batting average, on-base percentage or slugging percentage than in July.)
* Ortiz in August in his career: .264/.371/.531
* Ortiz in September in his career: .284/.381/.571
* Victor Martinez this July: .175/.280/.250
* Martinez in July in his career: .274/.350/.413
(Only May, historically, has been a worse month for Martinez.)
* Martinez in August in his career: .316/.390/.484
* Martinez in September in his career: .310/.392/.459
Ortiz just OBP'ed .306 in a month in which he normally OBP's over .400, and he normally sees his numbers fall across the board as the calendar turns to August and September.
Martinez, on the other hand, scuffled through July the way he normally scuffled through July -- and his five-hit day on Sunday might just be an indication that he's ready to get hot in August the way he normally gets hot in August.
Here's one more set of numbers for you:
Mike Lowell's Ultimate Zone Rating: minus-9.7
Mike Lowell's Fielding Bible Plus-Minus: minus-21
Mike Lowell at the plate since his DL stint: .415/.500/.694
Lowell has been smoking the ball at the plate. He's also shown almost zero range at third base. One example: With one out and runners on first and second in Sunday's third inning, Clay Buchholz induced a slow ground ball between shortstop and third base. Lowell lunged for it but never got his glove on the ball. Had he made the plate, he might have turned an inning-ending double play -- and Buchholz would have escaped without allowing the six third-inning runs about which Red Sox fans will be talking on Monday morning.
But Lowell didn't reach it. The statistics above demonstrate why: His hip injury has robbed him of almost all of his range. Does that sound like a designated hitter to anyone else?
Well, it's that bad again. David Ortiz went 0-for-5 on Sunday against the Baltimore Orioles and left an astounding 10 runners on base:
* He popped to shallow left field with the bases loaded in the first;
* He drew a walk with the bases loaded in the second;
* He lined out to second with two on in the fourth;
* He rolled into a double play with the bases loaded in the sixth;
* He grounded out to first with a runner on second in the eighth.
He had a chance to drive home 13 runs in the game -- 18 if you include the possibility of home runs -- and he drove in just one. (The double play did plate a run, but if you're going to argue that the double play was a productive at-bat is grasping at straws.)
Now that Victor Martinez is in the fold and ready to rake, it's again time to wonder if David Ortiz might best serve the Red Sox by playing only against righthanded pitchers -- and, even then, maybe not against all righthanded pitchers. The only problem is that Martinez, too, has had to endure a pretty epic slump through the month of July.
Consider these numbers:
* Ortiz this July: .247/.306/.539
* Ortiz in July in his career: .314/.410/.617
(He has no month in which he has a higher batting average, on-base percentage or slugging percentage than in July.)
* Ortiz in August in his career: .264/.371/.531
* Ortiz in September in his career: .284/.381/.571
* Victor Martinez this July: .175/.280/.250
* Martinez in July in his career: .274/.350/.413
(Only May, historically, has been a worse month for Martinez.)
* Martinez in August in his career: .316/.390/.484
* Martinez in September in his career: .310/.392/.459
Ortiz just OBP'ed .306 in a month in which he normally OBP's over .400, and he normally sees his numbers fall across the board as the calendar turns to August and September.
Martinez, on the other hand, scuffled through July the way he normally scuffled through July -- and his five-hit day on Sunday might just be an indication that he's ready to get hot in August the way he normally gets hot in August.
Here's one more set of numbers for you:
Mike Lowell's Ultimate Zone Rating: minus-9.7
Mike Lowell's Fielding Bible Plus-Minus: minus-21
Mike Lowell at the plate since his DL stint: .415/.500/.694
Lowell has been smoking the ball at the plate. He's also shown almost zero range at third base. One example: With one out and runners on first and second in Sunday's third inning, Clay Buchholz induced a slow ground ball between shortstop and third base. Lowell lunged for it but never got his glove on the ball. Had he made the plate, he might have turned an inning-ending double play -- and Buchholz would have escaped without allowing the six third-inning runs about which Red Sox fans will be talking on Monday morning.
But Lowell didn't reach it. The statistics above demonstrate why: His hip injury has robbed him of almost all of his range. Does that sound like a designated hitter to anyone else?
Friday, July 31, 2009
Using BABIP to define The Steroid Era
The idea of The Steroid Era always has kind of been vague. Rumblings of steroid use began back in the 1980s, but sluggers didn't start really launching home runs until the mid-1990s. When did it start? When did it end? What is The Steroid Era?
According to BABIP -- the advanced metric that stands for "batting average on balls in play" -- The Steroid Era lasted from 1993-2001 -- just before the first round of steroid testing began in the major leagues. The era of performance enhancers, though, isn't yet over.
Steroid use isn't just about hitting home runs. Steroid use is about hitting the ball hard. BABIP measures how often a player gets a hit when he puts the ball in play, and the harder the hitter hits the ball, the higher his BABIP is going to be. (Kevin Youkilis leads the Red Sox in BABIP this season because he hits the ball hard so consistently, while Jason Varitek and David Ortiz bring up there rear because they pop the ball up so consistently.)
That particular statistic tells the story of The Steroid Era as well as anything. Check out the progression of the average BABIP across the major leagues over the years. (The list is condensed so your eyes don't glaze over as you read it.)
1986: .286
1988: .285
1990: .287
1992: .285
1994: .299
1996: .304
1998: .301
2000: .302
2002: .292
2004: .298
2006: .303
2008: .300
See the jump? Major-league hitters saw their batting average on balls in play hover around .285 throughout the 1980s only to see it make a huge leap from 1992-94 and spike to an all-time high of .304 in 1996. BABIP numbers didn't drop back below .300 until 2001 (.297) and settled into the low .290s in 2002 and 2003 -- the years in which the first round of steroid testing was negotiated and implemented.
What's disappointing, though, is that BABIP numbers jumped back up over .300 in 2006 and have stayed there for each of the last three seasons. (So far this season, it's at .296, but we haven't investigated whether BABIP numbers rise or fall in the final two months of the season.)
The initial steroid testing appeared to take a huge bite out of the juiced-up line drives that were being knocking all over the ballpark from 1993-2001. But now that those numbers are creeping back up again, it appears that the chemists might once again one step ahead of the enforcement agents.
According to BABIP -- the advanced metric that stands for "batting average on balls in play" -- The Steroid Era lasted from 1993-2001 -- just before the first round of steroid testing began in the major leagues. The era of performance enhancers, though, isn't yet over.
Steroid use isn't just about hitting home runs. Steroid use is about hitting the ball hard. BABIP measures how often a player gets a hit when he puts the ball in play, and the harder the hitter hits the ball, the higher his BABIP is going to be. (Kevin Youkilis leads the Red Sox in BABIP this season because he hits the ball hard so consistently, while Jason Varitek and David Ortiz bring up there rear because they pop the ball up so consistently.)
That particular statistic tells the story of The Steroid Era as well as anything. Check out the progression of the average BABIP across the major leagues over the years. (The list is condensed so your eyes don't glaze over as you read it.)
1986: .286
1988: .285
1990: .287
1992: .285
1994: .299
1996: .304
1998: .301
2000: .302
2002: .292
2004: .298
2006: .303
2008: .300
See the jump? Major-league hitters saw their batting average on balls in play hover around .285 throughout the 1980s only to see it make a huge leap from 1992-94 and spike to an all-time high of .304 in 1996. BABIP numbers didn't drop back below .300 until 2001 (.297) and settled into the low .290s in 2002 and 2003 -- the years in which the first round of steroid testing was negotiated and implemented.
What's disappointing, though, is that BABIP numbers jumped back up over .300 in 2006 and have stayed there for each of the last three seasons. (So far this season, it's at .296, but we haven't investigated whether BABIP numbers rise or fall in the final two months of the season.)
The initial steroid testing appeared to take a huge bite out of the juiced-up line drives that were being knocking all over the ballpark from 1993-2001. But now that those numbers are creeping back up again, it appears that the chemists might once again one step ahead of the enforcement agents.
Thursday, July 30, 2009
Ortiz news should shock no one
It’s not news.
You’ll see wall-to-wall coverage for the next week of the news about David Ortiz, the New York Times report that the Red Sox slugger’s name was one of 103 names on the notorious – and supposedly anonymous – list of performance-enhancing drug users from 2003. From NESN to ESPN to CNN, you’ll hear so much about Ortiz and the steroid report over the next few days that you’ll wish someone would switch the focus back to Michael Jackson.
But it’s not news.
Ortiz has joined a club that includes such luminaries as Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mark McGwire and Alex Rodriguez – not to mention Manny Ramirez, who played with Ortiz with the Red Sox and whose name also was included in yesterday’s New York Times report. The club also includes not-so-luminary names like Larry Bigbie, Mike Lansing, Matt Lawton and Fernando Vina.
No name being connected with steroid use possibly could surprise anyone anymore. If you still believed, after all the other players whose names have been associated with performance enhancers in recent years, that Ortiz was clean, well, you might want to see someone about your chronic delusion.
The level of surprise among the average baseball fan yesterday almost certainly registered somewhere between, “The sun came up this morning” and “My toaster didn’t explode overnight.”
The only possible discussion point left is how the revelation will impact the legacy of both Ortiz and the Red Sox. It won’t.
It’s not going to taint anything about the magical October of 2004. For one thing, the Red Sox rallied to win the American League Championship Series against a New York Yankees team that included Rodriguez, Jason Giambi and Gary Sheffield, all connected in various ways with performance-enhancing drugs.
For another, baseball fans have grown so numb to steroid revelations that every new name further buries the last. Ramirez, the latest to topple from his pedestal, received a standing ovation from a full house – on the road, no less – when he made his return from his 50-game suspension.
Even Rodriguez, whose use of performance enhancers sent shock waves through the baseball world in spring training, appears to have seen his life and career settle back into its regular routine. (From the New York Daily News on Sunday: “A-Rod, Kate Hudson kiss at Yankee Stadium.” Ah, normalcy.)
All this revelation does is deepen the urgency for the clean players from that era – if indeed there were any – to push for a wider transparency of information. More than 100 players tested positive for performance enhancers in 2003, but that means 600 or 700 did not test positive.
We just don’t know who’s on that list. We can make educated guesses, but we just don’t know. Ken Griffey Jr. has been held up as the poster child for unenhanced success, and Greg Maddux won 300 games more on movement and deception than on arm strength. It’s hard to believe Tim Wakefield needed any juice to push his knuckleball up to 67 miles an hour.
Albert Pujols even made emphatic declarations in a recent Sports Illustrated story. The story was met with a shrug and a “Who really knows?” from most fans.
Unless the clean players of this generation take a stand against the dirty players of this generation, we’re just going to keep hearing names leaking out – and not one of them is going to surprise us.
You’ll see wall-to-wall coverage for the next week of the news about David Ortiz, the New York Times report that the Red Sox slugger’s name was one of 103 names on the notorious – and supposedly anonymous – list of performance-enhancing drug users from 2003. From NESN to ESPN to CNN, you’ll hear so much about Ortiz and the steroid report over the next few days that you’ll wish someone would switch the focus back to Michael Jackson.
But it’s not news.
Ortiz has joined a club that includes such luminaries as Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mark McGwire and Alex Rodriguez – not to mention Manny Ramirez, who played with Ortiz with the Red Sox and whose name also was included in yesterday’s New York Times report. The club also includes not-so-luminary names like Larry Bigbie, Mike Lansing, Matt Lawton and Fernando Vina.
No name being connected with steroid use possibly could surprise anyone anymore. If you still believed, after all the other players whose names have been associated with performance enhancers in recent years, that Ortiz was clean, well, you might want to see someone about your chronic delusion.
The level of surprise among the average baseball fan yesterday almost certainly registered somewhere between, “The sun came up this morning” and “My toaster didn’t explode overnight.”
The only possible discussion point left is how the revelation will impact the legacy of both Ortiz and the Red Sox. It won’t.
It’s not going to taint anything about the magical October of 2004. For one thing, the Red Sox rallied to win the American League Championship Series against a New York Yankees team that included Rodriguez, Jason Giambi and Gary Sheffield, all connected in various ways with performance-enhancing drugs.
For another, baseball fans have grown so numb to steroid revelations that every new name further buries the last. Ramirez, the latest to topple from his pedestal, received a standing ovation from a full house – on the road, no less – when he made his return from his 50-game suspension.
Even Rodriguez, whose use of performance enhancers sent shock waves through the baseball world in spring training, appears to have seen his life and career settle back into its regular routine. (From the New York Daily News on Sunday: “A-Rod, Kate Hudson kiss at Yankee Stadium.” Ah, normalcy.)
All this revelation does is deepen the urgency for the clean players from that era – if indeed there were any – to push for a wider transparency of information. More than 100 players tested positive for performance enhancers in 2003, but that means 600 or 700 did not test positive.
We just don’t know who’s on that list. We can make educated guesses, but we just don’t know. Ken Griffey Jr. has been held up as the poster child for unenhanced success, and Greg Maddux won 300 games more on movement and deception than on arm strength. It’s hard to believe Tim Wakefield needed any juice to push his knuckleball up to 67 miles an hour.
Albert Pujols even made emphatic declarations in a recent Sports Illustrated story. The story was met with a shrug and a “Who really knows?” from most fans.
Unless the clean players of this generation take a stand against the dirty players of this generation, we’re just going to keep hearing names leaking out – and not one of them is going to surprise us.
Francona made wrong call by hitting Ortiz for Lowrie
The beauty of baseball is that you never need a home run.
To win a football game, you sometimes need to score a touchdown and not kick a field goal. To win a basketball game, you sometimes need a 3-pointer. To win a hockey game, you sometimes have to take a slapshot from the neutral zone with seconds ticking off the clock.
In baseball, you never need a home run.
Home runs are great, of course. There is never a bad time for a home run. But even a team that's losing by three runs can be just as victorious with seven or eight straight singles as it can be with three straight singles and a home run.
Time doesn't run out. Only outs run out. If you keep an inning alive with hits, be they singles or home runs, you're eventually going to score runs.
That brings us to Wednesday's eighth inning. The Red Sox went into the inning trailing by four runs, but a collision in the outfield and a Mike Lowell sacrifice fly cut that deficit to three. J.D. Drew then followed with a line-drive single to center field, and after Adam LaRoche bounced into a fielder's choice, Jason Varitek drew a walk.
(As an aside: How in the world does a third-base coach send Jason Bay -- a guy with mediocre speed who had just been thrown out at home plate in a costly play the night before -- on a shallow fly ball with no outs in a game in which his team trailed by four runs? Bay was safe -- but the single by Drew only emphasized the ludicrousness of the decision. You don't risk outs at home plate down four runs in the same way you don't steal bases down four runs. Had Bay been thrown out, fans everywhere would be screaming for the head of DeMarlo Hale.)
Jed Lowrie was due up next.
Terry Francona called him back and sent up David Ortiz.
The thought behind the move was obvious. Lowrie is a shortstop who hits line drives, a hitter coming off wrist surgery whose bid for a home run on Sunday died just in front of the warning track. Ortiz is Big Papi, the Greatest Clutch Hitter in Red Sox History, a slugger who has made a living out of distributing souvenirs to the fans in the bleachers behind the bullpens in right fields.
A home run would tie the game. Francona wanted a home run.
But Francona didn't need a home run. With the lineup set to turn over behind Lowrie, he really, really didn't need a home run. All Lowrie had to do was get a base hit, drive in a run, keep the line moving. If he hit it into a gap somewhere, even better. But all he had to do was get a hit or get on base and keep the line moving.
(Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia opened the ninth inning with back-to-back hits. Ellsbury hit a slap single into left field, and Pedroia beat a ground ball down the third-base line with which Adam Kennedy had trouble. Everything would have been different had they come to the plate in the eighth inning, of course, but it certainly drives the point home.)
Francona went for the gusto. He called for Ortiz.
Ortiz hit a pop fly on the infield that Kennedy squeezed for the third out of the inning.
The Red Sox ended up losing the game by an 8-6 score and fell 3 1/2 games behind the victorious Yankees.
Ortiz had a huge month of June, breaking out of his early-season slump in a big way. He hit .320 and OBP'ed .409 and slugged .653 and hit seven home runs and just generally looked like the old Big Papi. Since the calendar turned to July, though, he's looked quite a bit like the Big Papi that drove Red Sox fans crazy in April and May:
At-bats
April: 87
July: 81
Hits
April: 20
July: 18
Walks
April: 8
July: 6
Strikeouts
April: 22
July: 21
Home runs
April: 0
July: 5
Those five home runs are all that separate Slumping Ortiz in April from "He's Back!" Ortiz in July. His batting average and on-base percentage actually are worse in July than they were in April. When he's not homering, he's doing pretty much what he did back when all of Boston was clamoring for him either to be benched or released or drawn and quartered in Kenmore Square.
In 18 at-bats since the start of this particular homestand, Ortiz had just three hits -- and seven strikeouts.
Lowrie, on the other hand, is working his way back from wrist surgery and has hit the ball hard all week long. His numbers don't reflect it -- his batting average for the season still is just .125 -- but he's hit the ball hard.
One indicator: He's hitting the ball in the air four out of every five times he puts it in play, but he's hardly hitting anything on the infield. He's hitting the ball hard into the outfield. He's just seeing everything get run down.
Another indicator: Entering play Wednesday, his BABIP -- batting average on balls in play -- was .107, a number that's so unsustainable it's laughable.
Everything Lowrie been hitting had been going right to fielders. All he had to do is keep hitting. You could almost already see him yanking a single to right field or hitting a line drive up the gap in left-center, a hit that would score at least one run and keep the inning alive for Ellsbury and Pedroia.
Francona instead called upon Ortiz to tie the game with one swing of the bat, called on a power hitter who is a .188 career hitter coming off the bench cold. Oakland manager Bob Geren went to the bullpen and called upon lefty specialist Craig Breslow, a pitcher who seemed to be warming for no other reason than to be ready when Ortiz pinch-hit for someone.
Ortiz stayed patient at the plate. He did what he usually does. He watched a pair of fastballs miss and then took a slider for a strike. He then took a cut at a 92-mile-an-hour right at his hands, and he hit it straight up.
Inning over.
For all intents and purposes, game over.
Francona actually had sent pinch-hitters to the plate just 31 times this season -- well below the American League average (39). He's not a manager who normally likes to pinch-hit.
He should have stuck to his instincts on Wednesday. Like Ortiz, he swung for the fences and ended up with a feeble pop fly.
To win a football game, you sometimes need to score a touchdown and not kick a field goal. To win a basketball game, you sometimes need a 3-pointer. To win a hockey game, you sometimes have to take a slapshot from the neutral zone with seconds ticking off the clock.
In baseball, you never need a home run.
Home runs are great, of course. There is never a bad time for a home run. But even a team that's losing by three runs can be just as victorious with seven or eight straight singles as it can be with three straight singles and a home run.
Time doesn't run out. Only outs run out. If you keep an inning alive with hits, be they singles or home runs, you're eventually going to score runs.
That brings us to Wednesday's eighth inning. The Red Sox went into the inning trailing by four runs, but a collision in the outfield and a Mike Lowell sacrifice fly cut that deficit to three. J.D. Drew then followed with a line-drive single to center field, and after Adam LaRoche bounced into a fielder's choice, Jason Varitek drew a walk.
(As an aside: How in the world does a third-base coach send Jason Bay -- a guy with mediocre speed who had just been thrown out at home plate in a costly play the night before -- on a shallow fly ball with no outs in a game in which his team trailed by four runs? Bay was safe -- but the single by Drew only emphasized the ludicrousness of the decision. You don't risk outs at home plate down four runs in the same way you don't steal bases down four runs. Had Bay been thrown out, fans everywhere would be screaming for the head of DeMarlo Hale.)
Jed Lowrie was due up next.
Terry Francona called him back and sent up David Ortiz.
The thought behind the move was obvious. Lowrie is a shortstop who hits line drives, a hitter coming off wrist surgery whose bid for a home run on Sunday died just in front of the warning track. Ortiz is Big Papi, the Greatest Clutch Hitter in Red Sox History, a slugger who has made a living out of distributing souvenirs to the fans in the bleachers behind the bullpens in right fields.
A home run would tie the game. Francona wanted a home run.
But Francona didn't need a home run. With the lineup set to turn over behind Lowrie, he really, really didn't need a home run. All Lowrie had to do was get a base hit, drive in a run, keep the line moving. If he hit it into a gap somewhere, even better. But all he had to do was get a hit or get on base and keep the line moving.
(Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia opened the ninth inning with back-to-back hits. Ellsbury hit a slap single into left field, and Pedroia beat a ground ball down the third-base line with which Adam Kennedy had trouble. Everything would have been different had they come to the plate in the eighth inning, of course, but it certainly drives the point home.)
Francona went for the gusto. He called for Ortiz.
Ortiz hit a pop fly on the infield that Kennedy squeezed for the third out of the inning.
The Red Sox ended up losing the game by an 8-6 score and fell 3 1/2 games behind the victorious Yankees.
Ortiz had a huge month of June, breaking out of his early-season slump in a big way. He hit .320 and OBP'ed .409 and slugged .653 and hit seven home runs and just generally looked like the old Big Papi. Since the calendar turned to July, though, he's looked quite a bit like the Big Papi that drove Red Sox fans crazy in April and May:
At-bats
April: 87
July: 81
Hits
April: 20
July: 18
Walks
April: 8
July: 6
Strikeouts
April: 22
July: 21
Home runs
April: 0
July: 5
Those five home runs are all that separate Slumping Ortiz in April from "He's Back!" Ortiz in July. His batting average and on-base percentage actually are worse in July than they were in April. When he's not homering, he's doing pretty much what he did back when all of Boston was clamoring for him either to be benched or released or drawn and quartered in Kenmore Square.
In 18 at-bats since the start of this particular homestand, Ortiz had just three hits -- and seven strikeouts.
Lowrie, on the other hand, is working his way back from wrist surgery and has hit the ball hard all week long. His numbers don't reflect it -- his batting average for the season still is just .125 -- but he's hit the ball hard.
One indicator: He's hitting the ball in the air four out of every five times he puts it in play, but he's hardly hitting anything on the infield. He's hitting the ball hard into the outfield. He's just seeing everything get run down.
Another indicator: Entering play Wednesday, his BABIP -- batting average on balls in play -- was .107, a number that's so unsustainable it's laughable.
Everything Lowrie been hitting had been going right to fielders. All he had to do is keep hitting. You could almost already see him yanking a single to right field or hitting a line drive up the gap in left-center, a hit that would score at least one run and keep the inning alive for Ellsbury and Pedroia.
Francona instead called upon Ortiz to tie the game with one swing of the bat, called on a power hitter who is a .188 career hitter coming off the bench cold. Oakland manager Bob Geren went to the bullpen and called upon lefty specialist Craig Breslow, a pitcher who seemed to be warming for no other reason than to be ready when Ortiz pinch-hit for someone.
Ortiz stayed patient at the plate. He did what he usually does. He watched a pair of fastballs miss and then took a slider for a strike. He then took a cut at a 92-mile-an-hour right at his hands, and he hit it straight up.
Inning over.
For all intents and purposes, game over.
Francona actually had sent pinch-hitters to the plate just 31 times this season -- well below the American League average (39). He's not a manager who normally likes to pinch-hit.
He should have stuck to his instincts on Wednesday. Like Ortiz, he swung for the fences and ended up with a feeble pop fly.
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
"This isn't going to be, like, a rotation"
So said Terry Francona on Friday after the Red Sox announced the acquisition of Adam LaRoche. The lineup that gave the team the best chance to win, the manager said, would play. Pride and hurt feelings were going to have nothing to do with
Kevin Youkilis is going to play just about every day. He's not affected in any way by the acquisition of LaRoche. That leaves three players -- LaRoche, Mike Lowell and David Ortiz -- for two spots in the lineup every day.
Let's look at the splits (in terms of OPS):
LaRoche, L
vs. LHP: .749
vs. RHP: .847
Of note: OPS'ing 1.250 in first three games with Red Sox.
Lowell, R
vs. LHP: .915
vs. RHP: .754
Of note: Having trouble defensively but is OPS'ing .935 since his return from the disabled list.
Ortiz, L
vs. LHP: .823
vs. RHP: .963
Of note: His home-run power remains, but his July batting average (.231) and on-base percentage (.291) look awfully similar to his April batting avearge (.230) and on-base percentage (.290).
And let's look at the pitchers the Red Sox will be facing:
Vin Mazzaro, RHP
vs. LHB: .723
vs. RHB: .845
Of note: Has never faced the Red Sox.
Brett Anderson, LHP
vs. LHB: .802
vs. RHB: .704
Of note: Allowed just two hits -- to righties Jason Bay and Nick Green -- in a complete-game shutout of the Red Sox on July 6.
Gio Gonzalez, LHP
vs. LHB: 1.553
vs. RHB: .806
Of note: Has faced lefties for just 38 at-bats in the major leagues. In the minor leagues, his numbers are pretty similar against righties and lefties.
You might be surprised, then, to learn that LaRoche is sitting out today's game against Mazzaro but will be back in the lineup -- with Ortiz sitting -- against Anderson on Wednesday. Lowell, who sat out each of the last two games, is back in the lineup and playing third base today.
It's not a rotation, Francona said. But the Red Sox are going to face far more righties than lefties the rest of the way, a scenario that appears to marginalize Lowell despite the $12 million he's being paid this year and the $12 million he'll be paid next year.
The third baseman appeared to fit best in the lineup on Wednesday and Thursday against back-to-back lefthanded pitchers. Instead, though, he's in the lineup on Tuesday against a righty -- a move almost transparent in its intention to appease a veteran who the Red Sox don't yet want to marginalize.
Kevin Youkilis is going to play just about every day. He's not affected in any way by the acquisition of LaRoche. That leaves three players -- LaRoche, Mike Lowell and David Ortiz -- for two spots in the lineup every day.
Let's look at the splits (in terms of OPS):
LaRoche, L
vs. LHP: .749
vs. RHP: .847
Of note: OPS'ing 1.250 in first three games with Red Sox.
Lowell, R
vs. LHP: .915
vs. RHP: .754
Of note: Having trouble defensively but is OPS'ing .935 since his return from the disabled list.
Ortiz, L
vs. LHP: .823
vs. RHP: .963
Of note: His home-run power remains, but his July batting average (.231) and on-base percentage (.291) look awfully similar to his April batting avearge (.230) and on-base percentage (.290).
And let's look at the pitchers the Red Sox will be facing:
Vin Mazzaro, RHP
vs. LHB: .723
vs. RHB: .845
Of note: Has never faced the Red Sox.
Brett Anderson, LHP
vs. LHB: .802
vs. RHB: .704
Of note: Allowed just two hits -- to righties Jason Bay and Nick Green -- in a complete-game shutout of the Red Sox on July 6.
Gio Gonzalez, LHP
vs. LHB: 1.553
vs. RHB: .806
Of note: Has faced lefties for just 38 at-bats in the major leagues. In the minor leagues, his numbers are pretty similar against righties and lefties.
You might be surprised, then, to learn that LaRoche is sitting out today's game against Mazzaro but will be back in the lineup -- with Ortiz sitting -- against Anderson on Wednesday. Lowell, who sat out each of the last two games, is back in the lineup and playing third base today.
It's not a rotation, Francona said. But the Red Sox are going to face far more righties than lefties the rest of the way, a scenario that appears to marginalize Lowell despite the $12 million he's being paid this year and the $12 million he'll be paid next year.
The third baseman appeared to fit best in the lineup on Wednesday and Thursday against back-to-back lefthanded pitchers. Instead, though, he's in the lineup on Tuesday against a righty -- a move almost transparent in its intention to appease a veteran who the Red Sox don't yet want to marginalize.
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