A little player comparison for your afternoon. Below are the numbers of two prominent players since June 1 -- one of whom should be relatively easy for Red Sox fans to identify:
Player A
* .265 batting average, .357 on-base, .558 slugging
* 27 home runs, 77 RBI
* 50 walks, 79 strikeouts
Player B
* .300 batting average, .386 on-base, .551 slugging
* 22 home runs, 76 RBI
* 52 walks, 76 strikeouts
Player B has a significantly higher batting average and on-base percentage. Player A has a slight edge in power numbers -- more home runs, more RBI and a higher slugging percentage. The walk numbers and strikeout numbers for the two players are almost identical.
Player A, of course, is the resurgent David Ortiz.
Player B?
Any guesses?
(Cue Jeopardy music.)
It's Mark Teixeira.
Showing posts with label funwithnumbers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label funwithnumbers. Show all posts
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Friday, April 24, 2009
Fun with numbers: Red Sox-Yankees
Here's a smorgasbord of numbers to chew on as we get ready for Red Sox-Yankees tonight:
Against Joba Chamberlain:
* Mike Lowell is 3-for-7;
* Dustin Pedroia is 3-for-8;
* Kevin Youkilis is 2-for-5;
whereas
* J.D. Drew is 0-for-7;
* Jacoby Ellsbury is 0-for-6;
* David Ortiz is 1-for-6;
Not one of those sample sizes is big enough to mean anything. It is fascinating, though, that Chamberlain, a righthander, has eaten the Red Sox lefthanders for lunch. That's not typical; in his career, lefties have an OPS of .627 against Chamberlain; righties have an OPS of .589.
Against Jon Lester:
* Melky Cabrera is 5-for-8;
* Johnny Damon is 5-for-12;
* Derek Jeter is 5-for-13;
whereas
* Alex Rodriguez, who David Ortiz still maintains is the best player in baseball, is 1-for-11;
* Nick Swisher is 1-for-6
* Mark Teixeira is 0-for-3
* Jorge Posada is 0-for-3
Again, tiny sample sizes that don't really mean anything.
At Fenway Park:
* Jeter has a line of .252/.314/.382
* Teixeira has a line of .194/.363/.274
(He's walked 14 times in 80 plate appearances.)
* Swisher has a line of .205/.321/.364
* Damon always gets booed.
One last fun number -- well, sort of:
* This kid wasn't even alive the last time the Yankees won the World Series. ("It's fun to do bad things," he says.)
(OK, so that was just an excuse to post that link. But that clip is fantastic.)
Against Joba Chamberlain:
* Mike Lowell is 3-for-7;
* Dustin Pedroia is 3-for-8;
* Kevin Youkilis is 2-for-5;
whereas
* J.D. Drew is 0-for-7;
* Jacoby Ellsbury is 0-for-6;
* David Ortiz is 1-for-6;
Not one of those sample sizes is big enough to mean anything. It is fascinating, though, that Chamberlain, a righthander, has eaten the Red Sox lefthanders for lunch. That's not typical; in his career, lefties have an OPS of .627 against Chamberlain; righties have an OPS of .589.
Against Jon Lester:
* Melky Cabrera is 5-for-8;
* Johnny Damon is 5-for-12;
* Derek Jeter is 5-for-13;
whereas
* Alex Rodriguez, who David Ortiz still maintains is the best player in baseball, is 1-for-11;
* Nick Swisher is 1-for-6
* Mark Teixeira is 0-for-3
* Jorge Posada is 0-for-3
Again, tiny sample sizes that don't really mean anything.
At Fenway Park:
* Jeter has a line of .252/.314/.382
* Teixeira has a line of .194/.363/.274
(He's walked 14 times in 80 plate appearances.)
* Swisher has a line of .205/.321/.364
* Damon always gets booed.
One last fun number -- well, sort of:
* This kid wasn't even alive the last time the Yankees won the World Series. ("It's fun to do bad things," he says.)
(OK, so that was just an excuse to post that link. But that clip is fantastic.)
Sunday, April 19, 2009
Fun with numbers: Strikes and balls
54 percent.
Name the Red Sox leader in walks right at this moment. Actually, scratch that. Name the American League's leader in walks right at this moment. It's the same guy.
It's not Kevin Youkilis. It's not J.D. Drew. Those two combined, in fact, have drawn 11 walks so far this season.
Jason Bay, by himself, has drawn 13 walks so far this season.
What's really interesting, though, is the way he's drawn those walks. He's not getting deep in the count all the time, fouling off pitches, grinding out at-bats. Only one of his walks this season, in fact, required more than six pitches -- and the rest of the time, he's not seeing all that many pitches in the strike zone.
Through 11 games this season, Bay has been thrown strikes on 54 percent of the pitches thrown to him -- lowest on the team. The major league average so far is 61 percent. No one in the American League East, in fact, has seen fewer than 54 percent.
Pitchers just have no desire to give the Red Sox left fielder anything to hit.
(In case you're wondering: Manny Ramirez has a National League-leading 14 walks and has seen strikes on 52 percent of his pitches, by far the fewest on his team. But you probably figured that would be the case.)
***
Bonus Fun With Numbers: 64 percent.
Jacoby Ellsbury insisted this spring that he needs to be less patient at the plate because pitchers don't want to walk him and give him a chance to steal bases. So far, he's been right.
No Red Sox player has seen more than Ellsbury's 64 percent.
And when he's swinging, he's not missing -- he's made contact on 95 percent of the pitches he's swung at. He just hasn't yet straightened it out (30 percent of his strikes are on foul balls) or gotten his hits to fall (he's hitting .244 on balls put in play).
Name the Red Sox leader in walks right at this moment. Actually, scratch that. Name the American League's leader in walks right at this moment. It's the same guy.
It's not Kevin Youkilis. It's not J.D. Drew. Those two combined, in fact, have drawn 11 walks so far this season.
Jason Bay, by himself, has drawn 13 walks so far this season.
What's really interesting, though, is the way he's drawn those walks. He's not getting deep in the count all the time, fouling off pitches, grinding out at-bats. Only one of his walks this season, in fact, required more than six pitches -- and the rest of the time, he's not seeing all that many pitches in the strike zone.
Through 11 games this season, Bay has been thrown strikes on 54 percent of the pitches thrown to him -- lowest on the team. The major league average so far is 61 percent. No one in the American League East, in fact, has seen fewer than 54 percent.
Pitchers just have no desire to give the Red Sox left fielder anything to hit.
(In case you're wondering: Manny Ramirez has a National League-leading 14 walks and has seen strikes on 52 percent of his pitches, by far the fewest on his team. But you probably figured that would be the case.)
***
Bonus Fun With Numbers: 64 percent.
Jacoby Ellsbury insisted this spring that he needs to be less patient at the plate because pitchers don't want to walk him and give him a chance to steal bases. So far, he's been right.
No Red Sox player has seen more than Ellsbury's 64 percent.
And when he's swinging, he's not missing -- he's made contact on 95 percent of the pitches he's swung at. He just hasn't yet straightened it out (30 percent of his strikes are on foul balls) or gotten his hits to fall (he's hitting .244 on balls put in play).
Saturday, April 18, 2009
Fun with numbers: BAPIP
.303
That's the American League average for BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play). The idea behind this stat is that everyone goes through stretches when everything off their bat goes straight to a fielder, and everyone goes through stretches when everything off their bat falls for a hit somewhere.
If a hitter's BAPIP is high, it means his ground balls are finding holes, his line drives are finding holes and his fly balls are finding holes. He's due for a step back. If a hitter's BAPIP is low, it means everything he's hitting is going straight to a fielder -- and he's due for some of those hits to start falling.
(As an example: In the second inning on Saturday, Mike Lowell ripped a line drive to left field with runners on second and third -- and it went straight to Felix Pie. Seven or eight times out of 10, a line drive hit that hard is going to get those runs home.)
Here are the BAPIP numbers for a few notable Red Sox hitters (through Friday):
* Kevin Youkilis: .469
You thought maybe he was going to hit .500 all season? You thought maybe it was all skill with no luck involved?
* Jason Bay: .333
It's higher than average, sure, but it's not so high that he can't keep hitting the way he's been hitting.
* Jacoby Ellsbury: .250
* Dustin Pedroia: .231
The top two in the Red Sox order have scuffled thus far; neither has a batting average above .235. But Pedroia has smoked some hits that defenders have made great plays on, and Ellsbury is a guy who should tend to have a high BAPIP because his speed will help him beat ouf some ground balls. Seeing low BAPIP numbers for both is a good sign -- it means their early-season slumps can be attributed more to bad luck than anything else.
* Mike Lowell: .226
The Red Sox are optimistic that their third baseman can bounce back from offseason hip surgery. He's hitting just .237 thus far, but a low BAPIP means he might be due for a couple of his line drives to fall.
* David Ortiz: .207
* Jason Varitek: .174
Here's the problem with BAPIP, though: It doesn't account for how hard you hit the ball. Some line drives into the outfield are going to get caught; some are going to fall for singles and doubles. But when you're hitting weak ground balls and pop-ups -- as both Varitek and Ortiz have been prone to do -- you're going to see fewer of your balls in play land for hits.
***
Fun With Numbers Bonus for all of those calling for Ortiz to be moved down in the batting order:
No, Big Papi isn't hitting the ball. He's off to a miserable start in terms of his results at the plate. But he's seeing 4.72 pitches per plate appearance thus far, by far the best total on the team. Part of that has to do with the fact that he's fouling more pitches off; that's what decreased bat speed will do to you.
But when he sees that many pitches every time he steps to the plate -- and he saw seven pitches en route to striking out in Saturday's first inning -- he's being at least a little bit productive.
That's the American League average for BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play). The idea behind this stat is that everyone goes through stretches when everything off their bat goes straight to a fielder, and everyone goes through stretches when everything off their bat falls for a hit somewhere.
If a hitter's BAPIP is high, it means his ground balls are finding holes, his line drives are finding holes and his fly balls are finding holes. He's due for a step back. If a hitter's BAPIP is low, it means everything he's hitting is going straight to a fielder -- and he's due for some of those hits to start falling.
(As an example: In the second inning on Saturday, Mike Lowell ripped a line drive to left field with runners on second and third -- and it went straight to Felix Pie. Seven or eight times out of 10, a line drive hit that hard is going to get those runs home.)
Here are the BAPIP numbers for a few notable Red Sox hitters (through Friday):
* Kevin Youkilis: .469
You thought maybe he was going to hit .500 all season? You thought maybe it was all skill with no luck involved?
* Jason Bay: .333
It's higher than average, sure, but it's not so high that he can't keep hitting the way he's been hitting.
* Jacoby Ellsbury: .250
* Dustin Pedroia: .231
The top two in the Red Sox order have scuffled thus far; neither has a batting average above .235. But Pedroia has smoked some hits that defenders have made great plays on, and Ellsbury is a guy who should tend to have a high BAPIP because his speed will help him beat ouf some ground balls. Seeing low BAPIP numbers for both is a good sign -- it means their early-season slumps can be attributed more to bad luck than anything else.
* Mike Lowell: .226
The Red Sox are optimistic that their third baseman can bounce back from offseason hip surgery. He's hitting just .237 thus far, but a low BAPIP means he might be due for a couple of his line drives to fall.
* David Ortiz: .207
* Jason Varitek: .174
Here's the problem with BAPIP, though: It doesn't account for how hard you hit the ball. Some line drives into the outfield are going to get caught; some are going to fall for singles and doubles. But when you're hitting weak ground balls and pop-ups -- as both Varitek and Ortiz have been prone to do -- you're going to see fewer of your balls in play land for hits.
***
Fun With Numbers Bonus for all of those calling for Ortiz to be moved down in the batting order:
No, Big Papi isn't hitting the ball. He's off to a miserable start in terms of his results at the plate. But he's seeing 4.72 pitches per plate appearance thus far, by far the best total on the team. Part of that has to do with the fact that he's fouling more pitches off; that's what decreased bat speed will do to you.
But when he sees that many pitches every time he steps to the plate -- and he saw seven pitches en route to striking out in Saturday's first inning -- he's being at least a little bit productive.
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