The Red Sox, conventional wisdom has it, have upgraded their defense while allowing their offense to get a little bit worse. Mike Cameron has replaced Jason Bay. Adrian Beltre has replaced Mike Lowell. The Red Sox might prevent more runs than they did a year ago, but they're not going to score as many runs.
Well, maybe.
The worst thing a player can do at the plate, after all, is make an out. The fewer outs a team makes, the more opportunities it will have to score runs. A home run tends to do the most damage, but the reason walks have become en vogue is because teams have started to realize that a walk beats virtually any result that involves making an out.
(The only exception might be a sacrifice fly or squeeze bunt that wins a game in the bottom of the ninth. Some might argue that a sacrifice fly trumps a walk with a runner on third and less than two outs -- but while a sacrifice fly plates one run and otherwise lets the air out of a rally, a walk puts another runner on base and makes a crooked-number inning more likely.)
And taking a backwards look at the Red Sox lineup -- measuring players' propensity to make outs rather than players' propensity to hit doubles or triples or home runs -- tells an interesting story:
2008
Ellsbury, .685 outs per at-bat
Pedroia, .668
Ortiz, .686
Youkilis, .605
Drew, .631
Bay, .635
Lowell, .715
Varitek, .701
Green, .744
Total: .669
2009 (with 2008 stats)
Ellsbury, .685 outs per at-bat
Pedroia, .668
Martinez, .644
Youkilis, .605
Ortiz, .686
Cameron, .682
Drew, .631
Beltre, .740
Scutaro, .649
Total: .664
(The American League average last season was .693.)
You can look at this a couple of ways:
1. The Red Sox probably are going to make outs at a lower clip than they did a year ago -- not significantly so, but the rate will be lower nonetheless. For all of the hand-wringing about how Theo Epstein has a worse offense next year than he had last year, well, his lineup has the potential to keep the line moving at an even better rate than it did last year.
2. The Red Sox don't have the black holes in their lineup that they had a year ago.
The biggest issue the Red Sox had a year ago was the lack of depth in their lineup. Once an opposing pitcher got past Jason Bay, he could cruise through the bottom third of the lineup. Lowell, Jason Varitek and Nick Green all averaged better than 0.7 outs per plate appearance a year ago.
(This figure does include double plays as well as sacrifice bunts and sacrifice flies. Double plays skew the numbers a little bit given that they, like RBIs, depend on whether runners are on base, but even Lowell -- the Red Sox leader last season with 24 GIDPs -- saw double plays account for a tiny fraction of his 346 outs.)
Of the hitters expected to start for the Red Sox on Opening Day next year, only Beltre averaged better than 0.7 outs per plate appearance last season -- and the potential exists for Beltre to see his numbers improve thanks to his move from Safeco Field to Fenway Park.
Pitchers won't get a break with the Red Sox lineup. No one other than Beltre can reasonably be expected to make outs at an above-average rate. Marco Scutaro is an enormous upgrade on Green even if his numbers regress from his career highs a year ago. Victor Martinez is an enormous upgrade on Varitek. Cameron is no Bay when it comes to avoiding outs, but he's still above average in that department.
Most importantly, as a team, the Red Sox lineup of a year ago got out more often than the Red Sox lineup of next year likely will. Backwards thinking sometimes can tell a fascinating story.
Showing posts with label beltre. Show all posts
Showing posts with label beltre. Show all posts
Monday, January 11, 2010
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
Putting together the Red Sox lineup
(For real this time.)
The acquisition of Adrian Beltre almost certainly closes the book on changes to the Red Sox starting lineup on Opening Day. The issue now is figuring out how Terry Francona will slot everyone in.
It's not a random process. Francona has a method to what he does, and he's not unaware of the statistics that make some players better fits at certain spots in the lineup than others.
Below are some of those considerations:
1. J.D. Drew and David Ortiz will not hit back-to-back.
More than a few lineup projections have David Ortiz hitting fifth in the Red Sox lineup and J.D. Drew hitting sixth. Francona, however, has a strict aversion to making opposing managers' jobs easy -- and if Drew and Ortiz are hitting back-to-back, a trained monkey would know enough to bring in a lefty to face both of them in a key spot in the late innings.
Drew and Ortiz played in 137 and 150 games, respectively, last season.
Any guesses how many times they hit back-to-back in the Red Sox lineup?
Seven. All season.
Most of the time they did so, it came in a game in which Jason Bay -- the natural buffer between the two -- was taking a day off. Francona wasn't going to put Rocco Baldelli or Josh Reddick any higher than seventh in the Red Sox lineup when they were playing on such a limited basis.
When Ortiz hit third, Drew hit fifth. When Ortiz hit fifth, Drew hit seventh. In all of those games down the stretch when Drew hit eighth, both Bay and Mike Lowell buffered him from Ortiz.
It might happen once in a while -- it did a year ago -- but there's no chance Drew and Ortiz are going to hit back-to-back on a regular basis next season.
2. Dustin Pedroia is a perfect No. 2 hitter
It's not that anyone is proposing moving Pedroia out of his home between Jacoby Ellsbury and Victor Martinez. He draws walks and hits line drives but doesn't hit the home runs that would make him a No. 3 or No. 4 hitter in a World Series-caliber lineup.
Drew and his inclination to take pitches and get on base likewise would be a better fit at the top of the batting order than in the middle. Some will criticize -- and have criticized -- Drew because he's a $14 million player who can't hit higher than No. 7 or No. 7 in the batting order.
If not for Pedroia, though, Drew would be where he belongs.
3. Mike Cameron is a more productive hitter than Adrian Beltre
It's tough to project the way Beltre will hit next season upon having been liberated from Safeco Field. Just using road splits, however, tell a story by themselves:
2009
Beltre: .279/.324/.393 (.717 OPS)
Cameron: .257/.355/.432 (.787 OPS)
2008
Beltre: .292/.349/.512 (.862 OPS)
Cameron: .258/.346/.548 (.895 OPS)
2007
Beltre: .288/.320/.538 (.858 OPS)
Cameron: .254/.341/.449 (.789 OPS)
On top of that, Cameron is a far better fit for the grind-it-out approach the Red Sox cherish in their hitters. A handful of other numbers:
Pitches per plate appearance (2009)
Beltre: 3.56
Cameron: 3.96
Pitches per plate appearance (career)
Beltre: 3.77
Cameron: 4.05
Pitches swung at out of the strike zone (2009)
Beltre: 36.8 percent
Cameron: 17.4 percent
Pitches swung at out of the strike zone (career)
Beltre: 30.1 percent
Cameron: 16.9 percent
Beltre is a tremendous defensive third baseman and certainly will benefit from being able to pull the ball at the Green Monster.
He's not, however, someone who should be hitting ahead of Drew or Ortiz -- or Cameron -- in the Red Sox lineup.
4. Marco Scutaro is a second leadoff hitter
In the same way some experts have endorsed the idea of National League teams hitting their pitchers eighth in their lineups, it makes sense for the Red Sox to put the least productive hitter in their lineup -- Beltre, most likely -- in the No. 8 spot rather than in the No. 9 spot.
One way to approach lineup construction is to put the No. 6, 7, 8 and 9 hitters in descending order of quality. In a close game in the late innings, after all, it makes sense for a team to have its best hitters in line from best to worst.
The difference between the No. 8 spot and the No. 9 spot in the lineup for the Red Sox a year ago, though, was 19 plate appearances. In exchange for those 19 at-bats, the thinking has it, a team is better off getting a quality on-base guy in front of its productive hitters at the top of the lineup. Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia both are line-drive hitters who are fully capable of driving in runners on base -- and Scutaro is going to get on base at a rate 50 points higher than Beltre will.
***
With all of that said, here's how the Opening Day lineup comes together:
1. Ellsbury, LF
2. Pedroia, 2B
3. Martinez, C
4. Youkilis, 1B
5. Ortiz, DH
6. Cameron, CF
7. Drew, RF
8. Beltre, 3B
9. Scutaro, SS
The acquisition of Adrian Beltre almost certainly closes the book on changes to the Red Sox starting lineup on Opening Day. The issue now is figuring out how Terry Francona will slot everyone in.
It's not a random process. Francona has a method to what he does, and he's not unaware of the statistics that make some players better fits at certain spots in the lineup than others.
Below are some of those considerations:
1. J.D. Drew and David Ortiz will not hit back-to-back.
More than a few lineup projections have David Ortiz hitting fifth in the Red Sox lineup and J.D. Drew hitting sixth. Francona, however, has a strict aversion to making opposing managers' jobs easy -- and if Drew and Ortiz are hitting back-to-back, a trained monkey would know enough to bring in a lefty to face both of them in a key spot in the late innings.
Drew and Ortiz played in 137 and 150 games, respectively, last season.
Any guesses how many times they hit back-to-back in the Red Sox lineup?
Seven. All season.
Most of the time they did so, it came in a game in which Jason Bay -- the natural buffer between the two -- was taking a day off. Francona wasn't going to put Rocco Baldelli or Josh Reddick any higher than seventh in the Red Sox lineup when they were playing on such a limited basis.
When Ortiz hit third, Drew hit fifth. When Ortiz hit fifth, Drew hit seventh. In all of those games down the stretch when Drew hit eighth, both Bay and Mike Lowell buffered him from Ortiz.
It might happen once in a while -- it did a year ago -- but there's no chance Drew and Ortiz are going to hit back-to-back on a regular basis next season.
2. Dustin Pedroia is a perfect No. 2 hitter
It's not that anyone is proposing moving Pedroia out of his home between Jacoby Ellsbury and Victor Martinez. He draws walks and hits line drives but doesn't hit the home runs that would make him a No. 3 or No. 4 hitter in a World Series-caliber lineup.
Drew and his inclination to take pitches and get on base likewise would be a better fit at the top of the batting order than in the middle. Some will criticize -- and have criticized -- Drew because he's a $14 million player who can't hit higher than No. 7 or No. 7 in the batting order.
If not for Pedroia, though, Drew would be where he belongs.
3. Mike Cameron is a more productive hitter than Adrian Beltre
It's tough to project the way Beltre will hit next season upon having been liberated from Safeco Field. Just using road splits, however, tell a story by themselves:
2009
Beltre: .279/.324/.393 (.717 OPS)
Cameron: .257/.355/.432 (.787 OPS)
2008
Beltre: .292/.349/.512 (.862 OPS)
Cameron: .258/.346/.548 (.895 OPS)
2007
Beltre: .288/.320/.538 (.858 OPS)
Cameron: .254/.341/.449 (.789 OPS)
On top of that, Cameron is a far better fit for the grind-it-out approach the Red Sox cherish in their hitters. A handful of other numbers:
Pitches per plate appearance (2009)
Beltre: 3.56
Cameron: 3.96
Pitches per plate appearance (career)
Beltre: 3.77
Cameron: 4.05
Pitches swung at out of the strike zone (2009)
Beltre: 36.8 percent
Cameron: 17.4 percent
Pitches swung at out of the strike zone (career)
Beltre: 30.1 percent
Cameron: 16.9 percent
Beltre is a tremendous defensive third baseman and certainly will benefit from being able to pull the ball at the Green Monster.
He's not, however, someone who should be hitting ahead of Drew or Ortiz -- or Cameron -- in the Red Sox lineup.
4. Marco Scutaro is a second leadoff hitter
In the same way some experts have endorsed the idea of National League teams hitting their pitchers eighth in their lineups, it makes sense for the Red Sox to put the least productive hitter in their lineup -- Beltre, most likely -- in the No. 8 spot rather than in the No. 9 spot.
One way to approach lineup construction is to put the No. 6, 7, 8 and 9 hitters in descending order of quality. In a close game in the late innings, after all, it makes sense for a team to have its best hitters in line from best to worst.
The difference between the No. 8 spot and the No. 9 spot in the lineup for the Red Sox a year ago, though, was 19 plate appearances. In exchange for those 19 at-bats, the thinking has it, a team is better off getting a quality on-base guy in front of its productive hitters at the top of the lineup. Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia both are line-drive hitters who are fully capable of driving in runners on base -- and Scutaro is going to get on base at a rate 50 points higher than Beltre will.
***
With all of that said, here's how the Opening Day lineup comes together:
1. Ellsbury, LF
2. Pedroia, 2B
3. Martinez, C
4. Youkilis, 1B
5. Ortiz, DH
6. Cameron, CF
7. Drew, RF
8. Beltre, 3B
9. Scutaro, SS
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
Adrian Beltre's side-to-side range
Adrian Beltre did not win a Fielding Bible award for 2009, finishing behind Washington's Ryan Zimmerman in voting by a panel of experts. He did, however, win two Fielding Bible awards in three years, winning in a landslide in 2008 and in a tight race with Scott Rolen in 2006.
He consistently has been one of the best third basemen in baseball for most of his career -- as selected by a group of experts that includes Peter Gammons and statistical pioneer Bill James.
If you go a little deeper into John Dewan's plus-minus scale, the primary metric used by the Fielding Bible, it reveals that Beltre's side-to-side range is the best in the game. For pitchers like Jon Lester who were burned so often last season by ground balls sneaking through the infield, Beltre's side-to-side range will be a tremendous boost next season.
Consider, first, the player Beltre will be replacing:
Mike Lowell, minus-23 in 2009
To his right: minus-3
To his left: minus-17
Even in his prime, though, Lowell wasn't the defensive player Beltre is. Consider Lowell during a 2007 season in which he was perfectly healthy from start to finish:
To his right: plus-6
To his left: minus-6
Even when he was healthy, Lowell was making fewer plays to his left -- to the shortstop side of third base -- than the average third baseman, and he wasn't making up for it with any kind of elite defense to his right.
Compare that to the five best defensive third baseman -- as ranked by Dewan's scale -- in baseball last season:
Chone Figgins, plus-40
To his right: plus-1
To his left: plus-23
Ryan Zimmerman, plus-28
To his right: minus-3
To his left: plus-25
Adrian Beltre, plus-27
To his right: plus-9
To his left: plus-11
Scott Rolen, plus-22
To his right: plus-7
To his left: plus-8
Evan Longoria, plus-21
To his right: plus-3
To his left: plus-10
Notice anything?
No third baseman on that list is as balanced as Beltre. Figgins, Longoria and Zimmerman all were better to their left last season than Beltre -- but no one in that group was as good going to their right as Beltre was. No third baseman in baseball, in fact, is better down the line than Beltre.
Theo Epstein made a point of upgrading his infield defense -- and its side-to-side range in particular. Alex Gonzalez, for example, still had the same sure hands he'd always had, but injuries had diminished his range going to his left or to his right.
No third baseman in baseball has better side-to-side range than Beltre.
He consistently has been one of the best third basemen in baseball for most of his career -- as selected by a group of experts that includes Peter Gammons and statistical pioneer Bill James.
If you go a little deeper into John Dewan's plus-minus scale, the primary metric used by the Fielding Bible, it reveals that Beltre's side-to-side range is the best in the game. For pitchers like Jon Lester who were burned so often last season by ground balls sneaking through the infield, Beltre's side-to-side range will be a tremendous boost next season.
Consider, first, the player Beltre will be replacing:
Mike Lowell, minus-23 in 2009
To his right: minus-3
To his left: minus-17
Even in his prime, though, Lowell wasn't the defensive player Beltre is. Consider Lowell during a 2007 season in which he was perfectly healthy from start to finish:
To his right: plus-6
To his left: minus-6
Even when he was healthy, Lowell was making fewer plays to his left -- to the shortstop side of third base -- than the average third baseman, and he wasn't making up for it with any kind of elite defense to his right.
Compare that to the five best defensive third baseman -- as ranked by Dewan's scale -- in baseball last season:
Chone Figgins, plus-40
To his right: plus-1
To his left: plus-23
Ryan Zimmerman, plus-28
To his right: minus-3
To his left: plus-25
Adrian Beltre, plus-27
To his right: plus-9
To his left: plus-11
Scott Rolen, plus-22
To his right: plus-7
To his left: plus-8
Evan Longoria, plus-21
To his right: plus-3
To his left: plus-10
Notice anything?
No third baseman on that list is as balanced as Beltre. Figgins, Longoria and Zimmerman all were better to their left last season than Beltre -- but no one in that group was as good going to their right as Beltre was. No third baseman in baseball, in fact, is better down the line than Beltre.
Theo Epstein made a point of upgrading his infield defense -- and its side-to-side range in particular. Alex Gonzalez, for example, still had the same sure hands he'd always had, but injuries had diminished his range going to his left or to his right.
No third baseman in baseball has better side-to-side range than Beltre.
Learning a lesson from Seattle
Theo Epstein completed his offseason overhaul of the Red Sox defense on Monday evening with the acquisition of Adrian Beltre, one of the elite defensive third basemen in the major leagues. In much the same way Mike Cameron arrived to replace Jason Bay, Beltre brings with him an iffy bat but a spectacular glove.
Like Cameron and shortstop Marco Scutaro, Beltre won't hit 30 home runs or drive in 100 runs -- but he will help turn Terry Francona's team into one of the American League's elite defensive units. The Red Sox will send seven above-average defensive players out into the field on a regular basis -- and that number doesn't even include Jacoby Ellsbury, a flashy center fielder who even critics have to concede has all the ability to become an elite defensive player.
Defense isn't as easy to measure as offense is.
One way to measure the impact of the overhaul, however, will be to look at the numbers compiled by the Red Sox pitching staff next season. The more ground balls that get scooped up and turned into outs, the better Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, John Lackey and Clay Buchholz are going to look.
For the uninitiated, batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is a key stat here. BABIP eliminates all plays in which the defense is not involved -- walks, strikeouts and home runs -- and comes up with just what it says it does: The hitter's batting average on balls put in play.
BABIP has a little bit to do with luck. Line drives sometimes find gloves, and line drives sometimes find grass. That's part of the game. A hitter isn't always going to get on base just because he made good contact -- and a pitcher isn't always going to get an out just because he made a good pitch. An average hitter has a BABIP of .300 over the course of a season, and an average pitcher therefore sees opponents compile a BABIP of .300 against him over the course of a season, too.
Defense, though, can affect BABIP. The more range a group of defenders has, the more line drives get caught -- and thus the lower the opponents' BABIP will be.
The Red Sox, widely considered one of the worst defensive teams in baseball last season, saw opponents compile a BABIP of .313 last season, second-highest in the major leagues.
The Seattle Mariners, widely considered one of the best defensive teams in baseball last season, saw opponents compile a BABIP of .274 last season, lowest in the major leagues.
What does that mean? It means that if opponents put the ball in play 4,000 times over the course of a season, the Mariners would allow 156 fewer base hits than the Red Sox would. That's almost a hit per game less -- and that hit per game has almost nothing to do with the quality of the pitcher on the mound.
(The assumuption is that luck evens out over 162 games.)
Let's dig a little deeper into the transformation Seattle made from below-average defensive team to elite defensive team, the same type of transition Epstein is trying to replicate with his team:
2008
UZR: minus-20.9, 20th in the major leagues
2009
UZR: 85.5, first in the major leagues
Here's how it translates to a pitching staff:
2008
Erik Bedard: 3.67 ERA (.272 BABIP)
Felix Hernandez: 3.45 ERA (.316 BABIP)
Jarrod Washburn: 4.69 ERA (.306 BABIP)
Team: 4.73 ERA (.309 BABIP)
2009
Erik Bedard: 2.82 ERA (.271 BABIP)
Felix Hernandez: 2.49 ERA (.280 BABIP)
Jarrod Washburn: 2.64 ERA (.245 BABIP)
Team: 3.87 ERA (.274 BABIP)
Seattle's team ERA ranked first in the American League even while its pitchers' strikeout-to-walk ratio -- the best indicator, normally, of pitching success -- ranked ninth in the American League, ahead only of Kansas City, Texas, Detroit, Baltimore and Cleveland.
Most importantly: While the Mariners actually saw their hitters' on-base percentage go down (from .318 in 2008 to .314 in 2009), they saw their win total go up (from 61 wins to 85 wins).
Maybe Seattle pitching coach Rick Adair possesses a genius that was untapped until last season.
Maybe it was the defense.
One more: Check out Lester's splits from last season:
First half (.333 BABIP): 3.87 ERA
Second half (.289 BABIP): 2.82 ERA
In the first half, Lester frequently pitched with Mike Lowell and Julio Lugo on the left side of the infield behind him. In the second half, Lester frequently pitched with Kevin Youkilis and Alex Gonzalez on the left side of the infield behind him.
Starting from Opening Day of next season, Lester will pitch with four Gold Glovers behind him: Youkilis at first base, Dustin Pedroia at second base, Beltre at third base and Cameron in either center field or left field. Scutaro and J.D. Drew aren't too shabby at shortstop and right field, either, and Jacoby Ellsbury has all the tools to be an elite center fielder.
Hernandez morphed from a promising young pitcher into a Cy Young contender almost overnight. His strikeout rate jumped and his walk rate dropped, and that played a big part in his success. So, too, though, did a BABIP of .280 -- the first sub-.300 BABIP he'd seen opponents compile since his rookie season.
If Lester can avoid the type of bad luck that cost him so much success in April and May a year ago, he might just win himself a Cy Young Award.
The same type of leap might await Buchholz, one of the American League's best ground-ball pitchers a year ago, and Beckett and Lackey, potentially dominant pitchers who rank in the top half of that same list.
No, the Red Sox might not score 900 runs the way they have three times since Epstein took over as general manager.
Scoring runs, though, is only half the battle.
Like Cameron and shortstop Marco Scutaro, Beltre won't hit 30 home runs or drive in 100 runs -- but he will help turn Terry Francona's team into one of the American League's elite defensive units. The Red Sox will send seven above-average defensive players out into the field on a regular basis -- and that number doesn't even include Jacoby Ellsbury, a flashy center fielder who even critics have to concede has all the ability to become an elite defensive player.
Defense isn't as easy to measure as offense is.
One way to measure the impact of the overhaul, however, will be to look at the numbers compiled by the Red Sox pitching staff next season. The more ground balls that get scooped up and turned into outs, the better Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, John Lackey and Clay Buchholz are going to look.
For the uninitiated, batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is a key stat here. BABIP eliminates all plays in which the defense is not involved -- walks, strikeouts and home runs -- and comes up with just what it says it does: The hitter's batting average on balls put in play.
BABIP has a little bit to do with luck. Line drives sometimes find gloves, and line drives sometimes find grass. That's part of the game. A hitter isn't always going to get on base just because he made good contact -- and a pitcher isn't always going to get an out just because he made a good pitch. An average hitter has a BABIP of .300 over the course of a season, and an average pitcher therefore sees opponents compile a BABIP of .300 against him over the course of a season, too.
Defense, though, can affect BABIP. The more range a group of defenders has, the more line drives get caught -- and thus the lower the opponents' BABIP will be.
The Red Sox, widely considered one of the worst defensive teams in baseball last season, saw opponents compile a BABIP of .313 last season, second-highest in the major leagues.
The Seattle Mariners, widely considered one of the best defensive teams in baseball last season, saw opponents compile a BABIP of .274 last season, lowest in the major leagues.
What does that mean? It means that if opponents put the ball in play 4,000 times over the course of a season, the Mariners would allow 156 fewer base hits than the Red Sox would. That's almost a hit per game less -- and that hit per game has almost nothing to do with the quality of the pitcher on the mound.
(The assumuption is that luck evens out over 162 games.)
Let's dig a little deeper into the transformation Seattle made from below-average defensive team to elite defensive team, the same type of transition Epstein is trying to replicate with his team:
2008
UZR: minus-20.9, 20th in the major leagues
2009
UZR: 85.5, first in the major leagues
Here's how it translates to a pitching staff:
2008
Erik Bedard: 3.67 ERA (.272 BABIP)
Felix Hernandez: 3.45 ERA (.316 BABIP)
Jarrod Washburn: 4.69 ERA (.306 BABIP)
Team: 4.73 ERA (.309 BABIP)
2009
Erik Bedard: 2.82 ERA (.271 BABIP)
Felix Hernandez: 2.49 ERA (.280 BABIP)
Jarrod Washburn: 2.64 ERA (.245 BABIP)
Team: 3.87 ERA (.274 BABIP)
Seattle's team ERA ranked first in the American League even while its pitchers' strikeout-to-walk ratio -- the best indicator, normally, of pitching success -- ranked ninth in the American League, ahead only of Kansas City, Texas, Detroit, Baltimore and Cleveland.
Most importantly: While the Mariners actually saw their hitters' on-base percentage go down (from .318 in 2008 to .314 in 2009), they saw their win total go up (from 61 wins to 85 wins).
Maybe Seattle pitching coach Rick Adair possesses a genius that was untapped until last season.
Maybe it was the defense.
One more: Check out Lester's splits from last season:
First half (.333 BABIP): 3.87 ERA
Second half (.289 BABIP): 2.82 ERA
In the first half, Lester frequently pitched with Mike Lowell and Julio Lugo on the left side of the infield behind him. In the second half, Lester frequently pitched with Kevin Youkilis and Alex Gonzalez on the left side of the infield behind him.
Starting from Opening Day of next season, Lester will pitch with four Gold Glovers behind him: Youkilis at first base, Dustin Pedroia at second base, Beltre at third base and Cameron in either center field or left field. Scutaro and J.D. Drew aren't too shabby at shortstop and right field, either, and Jacoby Ellsbury has all the tools to be an elite center fielder.
Hernandez morphed from a promising young pitcher into a Cy Young contender almost overnight. His strikeout rate jumped and his walk rate dropped, and that played a big part in his success. So, too, though, did a BABIP of .280 -- the first sub-.300 BABIP he'd seen opponents compile since his rookie season.
If Lester can avoid the type of bad luck that cost him so much success in April and May a year ago, he might just win himself a Cy Young Award.
The same type of leap might await Buchholz, one of the American League's best ground-ball pitchers a year ago, and Beckett and Lackey, potentially dominant pitchers who rank in the top half of that same list.
No, the Red Sox might not score 900 runs the way they have three times since Epstein took over as general manager.
Scoring runs, though, is only half the battle.
Monday, January 4, 2010
Beltre completes Red Sox bridge
Oh, and you thought a "bridge" meant a third-place season?
Reports indicate that the Red Sox have signed third baseman Adrian Beltre to a one-year deal worth $9 million with a player option for 2011 worth $5 million.
It's a perfect fit for the bridge Theo Epstein is trying to build to the prospects in the lower levels of his minor-league system.
Wait a second, MacPherson, you're already saying. Didn't you just write, a couple of days ago, that Beltre was, in fact, not a fit for the Red Sox bridge?
That's true.
Here's the difference: A one-year deal for Beltre, even with a player option, gives the Red Sox exactly the type of flexibility they crave. Consider this excerpt from the above blog post:
What happens if cancer survivor Anthony Rizzo tears apart Double-A this year and is beating down the door to the major leagues midway through the 2011 season? What happens if Lars Anderson rediscovers the power stroke that generated so much hype last season? Even more likely: What happens if Adrian Gonzalez becomes available in July the way many expect him to be?
The Red Sox can't count on Anderson. The Red Sox can't count on Rizzo. The Red Sox certainly can't count on Gonzalez landing in their laps sometime in July.
What they can count on, though, is tremendous flexibility going forward both with their finances and with their roster. Consider the money coming off the books in the next two seasons:
After 2010
Josh Beckett ($12.1 million)
Adrian Beltre ($9 million, if option is not picked up)
Mike Lowell ($12.5 million)
Julio Lugo ($9 million)
Victor Martinez ($7.7 million)
David Ortiz ($13 million)
After 2011
Beltre ($5 million, if option is picked up)
Mike Cameron ($7.75 million)
J.D. Drew ($14 million)
Jonathan Papelbon ($10 million, maybe)
Marco Scutaro ($5 million, if option not picked up)
The Red Sox have prospects on the way like Anderson, Rizzo, Jose Iglesias, Ryan Kalish, Josh Reddick and Ryan Westmoreland -- and those are just the position players.
When Theo Epstein talked about a bridge year, he was talking about restocking his roster without blocking the talent in his minor-league system and without eliminating the possibility of a trade for Gonzalez or Miguel Cabrera or Prince Fielder.
A one-year deal for Beltre -- a steal, really, considering the numbers Scott Boras was throwing around way back when -- fits that philosophy precisely.
Two things could happen this season with Beltre:
1. Beltre could play terrific baseball;
2. Beltre could play terrible baseball.
Two things could happen this season with the Red Sox:
4. Beltre could become expendable -- be it via a trade for Gonzalez or via a tremendous year out of Anderson or Rizzo, players who conceivably could be ready to play first base in the major leagues in 2011;
2. Beltre could become indispensable when none of the above scenarios play out.
If both No. 1s play out, the Red Sox would find themselves in a great situation. Not only would they be getting a third baseman playing terrific baseball, but they'd have either be bringing him back for a second year at a bargain-basement price or be replacing him with someone even more valuable.
If the Red Sox trade for Gonzalez or make clear their intention to promote Anderson or Rizzo, after all, he'd face the same situation as Jason Varitek did this winter: He'd have to exercise a player option knowing no starting job awaited him.
(Then again, if Ortiz is allowed to walk away, Anderson or Gonzalez or Rizzo could be a designated hitter for a year until Beltre's contract expires.)
If both No. 2s play out, a worst-case scenario, the Red Sox wouldn't have done anything to cripple themselves going forward. Beltre would likely pick up his $5 million player option to rebuild his value, but that's far from a crippling contract. The Red Sox still would have plenty of money -- thanks to the expiring contracts of Lowell, Lugo and Ortiz -- to go out and find a corner infielder either on a short-term deal or a long-term deal.
Epstein has always talked about running his big-market Red Sox like a small-market team.
Small-market teams don't cripple themselves with long-term contracts, instead going short-term with veteran players to allow themselves to infuse young talent whenever possible.
In that way, the one-year deal to which Beltre agreed on Monday is just the type of small-market deal that perfectly fits the Epstein philosophy.
Reports indicate that the Red Sox have signed third baseman Adrian Beltre to a one-year deal worth $9 million with a player option for 2011 worth $5 million.
It's a perfect fit for the bridge Theo Epstein is trying to build to the prospects in the lower levels of his minor-league system.
Wait a second, MacPherson, you're already saying. Didn't you just write, a couple of days ago, that Beltre was, in fact, not a fit for the Red Sox bridge?
That's true.
Here's the difference: A one-year deal for Beltre, even with a player option, gives the Red Sox exactly the type of flexibility they crave. Consider this excerpt from the above blog post:
What happens if cancer survivor Anthony Rizzo tears apart Double-A this year and is beating down the door to the major leagues midway through the 2011 season? What happens if Lars Anderson rediscovers the power stroke that generated so much hype last season? Even more likely: What happens if Adrian Gonzalez becomes available in July the way many expect him to be?
The Red Sox can't count on Anderson. The Red Sox can't count on Rizzo. The Red Sox certainly can't count on Gonzalez landing in their laps sometime in July.
What they can count on, though, is tremendous flexibility going forward both with their finances and with their roster. Consider the money coming off the books in the next two seasons:
After 2010
Josh Beckett ($12.1 million)
Adrian Beltre ($9 million, if option is not picked up)
Mike Lowell ($12.5 million)
Julio Lugo ($9 million)
Victor Martinez ($7.7 million)
David Ortiz ($13 million)
After 2011
Beltre ($5 million, if option is picked up)
Mike Cameron ($7.75 million)
J.D. Drew ($14 million)
Jonathan Papelbon ($10 million, maybe)
Marco Scutaro ($5 million, if option not picked up)
The Red Sox have prospects on the way like Anderson, Rizzo, Jose Iglesias, Ryan Kalish, Josh Reddick and Ryan Westmoreland -- and those are just the position players.
When Theo Epstein talked about a bridge year, he was talking about restocking his roster without blocking the talent in his minor-league system and without eliminating the possibility of a trade for Gonzalez or Miguel Cabrera or Prince Fielder.
A one-year deal for Beltre -- a steal, really, considering the numbers Scott Boras was throwing around way back when -- fits that philosophy precisely.
Two things could happen this season with Beltre:
1. Beltre could play terrific baseball;
2. Beltre could play terrible baseball.
Two things could happen this season with the Red Sox:
4. Beltre could become expendable -- be it via a trade for Gonzalez or via a tremendous year out of Anderson or Rizzo, players who conceivably could be ready to play first base in the major leagues in 2011;
2. Beltre could become indispensable when none of the above scenarios play out.
If both No. 1s play out, the Red Sox would find themselves in a great situation. Not only would they be getting a third baseman playing terrific baseball, but they'd have either be bringing him back for a second year at a bargain-basement price or be replacing him with someone even more valuable.
If the Red Sox trade for Gonzalez or make clear their intention to promote Anderson or Rizzo, after all, he'd face the same situation as Jason Varitek did this winter: He'd have to exercise a player option knowing no starting job awaited him.
(Then again, if Ortiz is allowed to walk away, Anderson or Gonzalez or Rizzo could be a designated hitter for a year until Beltre's contract expires.)
If both No. 2s play out, a worst-case scenario, the Red Sox wouldn't have done anything to cripple themselves going forward. Beltre would likely pick up his $5 million player option to rebuild his value, but that's far from a crippling contract. The Red Sox still would have plenty of money -- thanks to the expiring contracts of Lowell, Lugo and Ortiz -- to go out and find a corner infielder either on a short-term deal or a long-term deal.
Epstein has always talked about running his big-market Red Sox like a small-market team.
Small-market teams don't cripple themselves with long-term contracts, instead going short-term with veteran players to allow themselves to infuse young talent whenever possible.
In that way, the one-year deal to which Beltre agreed on Monday is just the type of small-market deal that perfectly fits the Epstein philosophy.
Thursday, December 31, 2009
Beltre not a fit for Red Sox bridge
As much hysteria as came with Theo Epstein's "bridge" talk earlier this month, the topic is worth revisiting -- if for no other reason than the fact that most analysts seem to have missed the point.
Here's the money quote again:
"We talked about this a lot at the end of the year, that we’re kind of in a bridge period. We still think that if we push some of the right buttons, we can be competitive at the very highest levels for the next two years. But we don’t want to compromise too much of the future for that competitiveness during the bridge period, but we all don’t want to sacrifice our competitiveness during the bridge just for the future. So we’re just trying to balance both those issues."
Here's what Epstein seems to be saying:
1. He has an eye on the arrival of some of his top prospects in the next couple of years, prospects that can re-infuse the Red Sox with talent.
2. He believes his team can be competitive "at the very highest levels for the next two years" without sacrificing all of that talent.
Keep in mind: Sacrificing talent doesn't mean trading talent. Sacrificing talent can mean blocking talent indefinitely -- thus all but forcing a trade. That's where Adrian Beltre comes into play -- not to mention names like Russell Branyan and Adam LaRoche that have been thrown around. The Red Sox still need a bat, or so they're saying, and Branyan, Beltre or LaRoche might be just enough to help them replace Jason Bay.
Beltre, one of the best defensive third baseman in the major leagues, has been rumored to be seeking anywhere from a three-year contract to a five-year contract worth upwards of $10 or $12 million a year.
The 30-year-old Beltre would be a terrific fit for the Red Sox next season: Not only would he replace Bay as the No. 6 hitter in the lineup, but he'd allow Kevin Youkilis to play first base and give the Red Sox four Gold Glove-caliber defenders in their infield.
(The assumption here is that Youkilis is an elite defensive player at first base but, while above average, not quite at that level at third base. Part of that has to do with the fact that it's generally easier to play first base than to play third base.)
Should the Red Sox sign Beltre for three years and $39 million, just as an example, they'd lock themselves into starting him at third base -- and, thus, Youkilis at first base -- for the next three seasons. Unlike outfielder Mike Cameron -- who's signed for just two seasons, by the way -- Beltre isn't exactly going to move around defensively. He's played all of 15 innings at shortstop and second base in his 12-year major-league career. If Beltre signs a three-year deal, he's staying put for three years.
What happens if cancer survivor Anthony Rizzo tears apart Double-A this year and is beating down the door to the major leagues midway through the 2011 season? What happens if Lars Anderson rediscovers the power stroke that generated so much hype last season?
Even more likely: What happens if Adrian Gonzalez becomes available in July the way many expect him to be?
Same goes for a name like LaRoche. The first baseman was a terrific fit during his 3 1/2 hours with the Red Sox last July, slugging .526 in his 19 at-bats and looking every bit like his swing was tailor-made for Fenway Park. He would be a terrific fit in the Red Sox lineup this season.
The reason the Braves made little effort to retain him, though, is because he reportedly was looking for a three-year contract -- and thus would have blocked prized prospect Freddie Freeman, a 20-year-old who Baseball America called "Keith Hernandez and Mark Grace with more power." If LaRoche was unwilling to go back to Atlanta as a stopgap solution -- a bridge, if you will -- it's not likely he'd be willing to go back to Boston for less than three years, either.
It likewise seems hard to believe that the 34-year-old Branyan would accept a one-year deal for short money coming off the best season of his career -- at least, until the market dictactes he has to. If he can get a two- or three-year offer from someone impressed by his 31 home runs and .520 slugging percentage last season, he's going to take it.
Signing Branyan or LaRoche for three years presents you the same issue as signing Beltre for three years does: Gonzalez is going on the market. It's inevitable. It might not happen now because Jed Hoyer doesn't want to give up on his first season in San Diego before it's even started, but unless the Padres somehow are in first place in the National League West come July, Hoyer is going to start fielding offers.
If the Red Sox are obligated to pay LaRoche $8 million a year in 2011 and 2012 -- or Beltre $13 million a year in 2011 and 2012 -- what do they do with him if they're able to acquire Gonzalez? Give another player away and eat his money? Haven't they done enough of that already?
Epstein has options going forward. Gonzalez will be available on the trade market. Victor Martinez will be a free agent, an intriguing issue given the uncertainty about where he's going to play as he gets older. Anderson might develop. Rizzo might develop.
Heck, Albert Pujols is scheduled to hit the open market after the 2011 season -- and while it's a longshot he'd ever leave St. Louis, do the Red Sox really want to eliminate themselves from the Pujols sweepstakes because they're still paying Beltre $13 million a year until 2012 or 2013?
Epstein's much-discussed "bridge" doesn't mean finishing in third place for the next two seasons. It means keeping the team's options open with prospects on the way and parts moving all over the major leagues.
A two-year contract for Cameron fits that philosophy -- especially given that he easily could shift into a reserve role should Ryan Kalish or Josh Reddick be ready to take over in left field in 2011.
A three-year deal for Beltre doesn't fit that philosophy at all.
Here's the money quote again:
"We talked about this a lot at the end of the year, that we’re kind of in a bridge period. We still think that if we push some of the right buttons, we can be competitive at the very highest levels for the next two years. But we don’t want to compromise too much of the future for that competitiveness during the bridge period, but we all don’t want to sacrifice our competitiveness during the bridge just for the future. So we’re just trying to balance both those issues."
Here's what Epstein seems to be saying:
1. He has an eye on the arrival of some of his top prospects in the next couple of years, prospects that can re-infuse the Red Sox with talent.
2. He believes his team can be competitive "at the very highest levels for the next two years" without sacrificing all of that talent.
Keep in mind: Sacrificing talent doesn't mean trading talent. Sacrificing talent can mean blocking talent indefinitely -- thus all but forcing a trade. That's where Adrian Beltre comes into play -- not to mention names like Russell Branyan and Adam LaRoche that have been thrown around. The Red Sox still need a bat, or so they're saying, and Branyan, Beltre or LaRoche might be just enough to help them replace Jason Bay.
Beltre, one of the best defensive third baseman in the major leagues, has been rumored to be seeking anywhere from a three-year contract to a five-year contract worth upwards of $10 or $12 million a year.
The 30-year-old Beltre would be a terrific fit for the Red Sox next season: Not only would he replace Bay as the No. 6 hitter in the lineup, but he'd allow Kevin Youkilis to play first base and give the Red Sox four Gold Glove-caliber defenders in their infield.
(The assumption here is that Youkilis is an elite defensive player at first base but, while above average, not quite at that level at third base. Part of that has to do with the fact that it's generally easier to play first base than to play third base.)
Should the Red Sox sign Beltre for three years and $39 million, just as an example, they'd lock themselves into starting him at third base -- and, thus, Youkilis at first base -- for the next three seasons. Unlike outfielder Mike Cameron -- who's signed for just two seasons, by the way -- Beltre isn't exactly going to move around defensively. He's played all of 15 innings at shortstop and second base in his 12-year major-league career. If Beltre signs a three-year deal, he's staying put for three years.
What happens if cancer survivor Anthony Rizzo tears apart Double-A this year and is beating down the door to the major leagues midway through the 2011 season? What happens if Lars Anderson rediscovers the power stroke that generated so much hype last season?
Even more likely: What happens if Adrian Gonzalez becomes available in July the way many expect him to be?
Same goes for a name like LaRoche. The first baseman was a terrific fit during his 3 1/2 hours with the Red Sox last July, slugging .526 in his 19 at-bats and looking every bit like his swing was tailor-made for Fenway Park. He would be a terrific fit in the Red Sox lineup this season.
The reason the Braves made little effort to retain him, though, is because he reportedly was looking for a three-year contract -- and thus would have blocked prized prospect Freddie Freeman, a 20-year-old who Baseball America called "Keith Hernandez and Mark Grace with more power." If LaRoche was unwilling to go back to Atlanta as a stopgap solution -- a bridge, if you will -- it's not likely he'd be willing to go back to Boston for less than three years, either.
It likewise seems hard to believe that the 34-year-old Branyan would accept a one-year deal for short money coming off the best season of his career -- at least, until the market dictactes he has to. If he can get a two- or three-year offer from someone impressed by his 31 home runs and .520 slugging percentage last season, he's going to take it.
Signing Branyan or LaRoche for three years presents you the same issue as signing Beltre for three years does: Gonzalez is going on the market. It's inevitable. It might not happen now because Jed Hoyer doesn't want to give up on his first season in San Diego before it's even started, but unless the Padres somehow are in first place in the National League West come July, Hoyer is going to start fielding offers.
If the Red Sox are obligated to pay LaRoche $8 million a year in 2011 and 2012 -- or Beltre $13 million a year in 2011 and 2012 -- what do they do with him if they're able to acquire Gonzalez? Give another player away and eat his money? Haven't they done enough of that already?
Epstein has options going forward. Gonzalez will be available on the trade market. Victor Martinez will be a free agent, an intriguing issue given the uncertainty about where he's going to play as he gets older. Anderson might develop. Rizzo might develop.
Heck, Albert Pujols is scheduled to hit the open market after the 2011 season -- and while it's a longshot he'd ever leave St. Louis, do the Red Sox really want to eliminate themselves from the Pujols sweepstakes because they're still paying Beltre $13 million a year until 2012 or 2013?
Epstein's much-discussed "bridge" doesn't mean finishing in third place for the next two seasons. It means keeping the team's options open with prospects on the way and parts moving all over the major leagues.
A two-year contract for Cameron fits that philosophy -- especially given that he easily could shift into a reserve role should Ryan Kalish or Josh Reddick be ready to take over in left field in 2011.
A three-year deal for Beltre doesn't fit that philosophy at all.
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Replacing Mike Lowell: Adrian Beltre
If the Red Sox move any closer to signing Adrian Beltre to play third base and unloading Mike Lowell, you'll start to see more and more comparisons between the two. Some might even wonder if Beltre, a righthanded-hitting slugger, would put dents in the Green Monster the way Lowell has done for the past four seasons.
That, though, is not what the Red Sox would be signing Beltre to do.
Every move this season has to be examined through the lens of the criteria Theo Epstein laid out only a few days after the Angels eliminated the Red Sox from the playoffs in October:
1. The Red Sox need to get better defensively.
2. The Red Sox need to get better at hitting on the road.
Beltre would serve both purposes.
First things first: Beltre can catch the ball as well as any third baseman in the game. He ranked third in the major leagues in plus-minus this season (plus-27) and third in the major leagues with 21 runs saved on defense. In 2008, he led the major leagues with a plus-32 and with 24 runs saved.
If you accept the sabermetric idea that 10 runs saved or created equal one win, Beltre is worth more than two wins with his defense alone.
Lowell, on the other hand, saw his range drop precipitously this season in the aftermath of a hip injury, and there's no guarantee it's coming back. He finished this season with a minus-23 and was credited with minus-17 runs saved -- meaning he cost the Red Sox almost two wins with his defense alone.
Replacing Lowell with Beltre at third base turns the Red Sox from a below-average defensive team at third base to an elite defensive team at third base -- and that could mean turning a 95-win team into a 99-win team.
But fans aren't going to judge the success of a move by its impact on defense -- not for a third baseman, the type of player who's supposed to hit.
Lowell made a living driving doubles off the Green Monster -- he OPS'ed .932 at home this season -- but saw his slugging percentage drop in a big way on the road (.713). Part of the reason the Red Sox acquired him was because he fit Fenway Park so well.
Beltre wouldn't be as great of a fit for the Green Monster -- and it's easy to look at his spray chart from 2008, his last healthy season, to see why:
Beltre can hit for power to all fields -- and not just to left field.
If you look closely at the chart, there actually aren't many doubles or fly balls that the Green Monster would turn into home runs, and there might be a few doubles or home runs that the cavernous right field at Fenway Park would turn into outs.
But here's the M. Night Shyamalan twist: The Red Sox don't need a hitter who can tattoo the Green Monster. No team in the American League had a higher home slugging percentage than the Red Sox's .498, and no team in the American League scored more runs than the Red Sox's 481 -- or 5.93 per game.
The Red Sox need a hitter who can do some damage on the road.
Playing his games at Seattle's Safeco field, Beltre OPS'ed a woeful .702 at home in 2008 and .646 in 2009. On the road, though, where everything evens out, Beltre has OPS'ed .862 and .717, respectively, in the past two seasons
If you want to give Beltre a break for this season because of his injuries, it's worth pointing out that only Victor Martinez, Jason Bay and Kevin Youkilis OPS'ed better than .850 on the road for the Red Sox season.
If you don't want to give Beltre a break for this season, well, at least he'd become one of the few hitters in the Red Sox lineup who seems to be at least as comfortable cruising around the American League as he is in his home ballpark.
Oh, and Beltre has a career .534 slugging percentage at Yankee Stadium.
The biggest reason to make the investment in Beltre would be for the defensive upgrade at third base. His numbers at the plate actually are remarkably similar to those of Lowell -- and, in terms of OPS+, he's actually a little bit worse than Lowell.
But if the Red Sox are looking for someone who can hit on the road -- and, of course, for someone who can catch the ball -- Beltre might be just the guy.
That, though, is not what the Red Sox would be signing Beltre to do.
Every move this season has to be examined through the lens of the criteria Theo Epstein laid out only a few days after the Angels eliminated the Red Sox from the playoffs in October:
1. The Red Sox need to get better defensively.
2. The Red Sox need to get better at hitting on the road.
Beltre would serve both purposes.
First things first: Beltre can catch the ball as well as any third baseman in the game. He ranked third in the major leagues in plus-minus this season (plus-27) and third in the major leagues with 21 runs saved on defense. In 2008, he led the major leagues with a plus-32 and with 24 runs saved.
If you accept the sabermetric idea that 10 runs saved or created equal one win, Beltre is worth more than two wins with his defense alone.
Lowell, on the other hand, saw his range drop precipitously this season in the aftermath of a hip injury, and there's no guarantee it's coming back. He finished this season with a minus-23 and was credited with minus-17 runs saved -- meaning he cost the Red Sox almost two wins with his defense alone.
Replacing Lowell with Beltre at third base turns the Red Sox from a below-average defensive team at third base to an elite defensive team at third base -- and that could mean turning a 95-win team into a 99-win team.
But fans aren't going to judge the success of a move by its impact on defense -- not for a third baseman, the type of player who's supposed to hit.
Lowell made a living driving doubles off the Green Monster -- he OPS'ed .932 at home this season -- but saw his slugging percentage drop in a big way on the road (.713). Part of the reason the Red Sox acquired him was because he fit Fenway Park so well.
Beltre wouldn't be as great of a fit for the Green Monster -- and it's easy to look at his spray chart from 2008, his last healthy season, to see why:
Beltre can hit for power to all fields -- and not just to left field.
If you look closely at the chart, there actually aren't many doubles or fly balls that the Green Monster would turn into home runs, and there might be a few doubles or home runs that the cavernous right field at Fenway Park would turn into outs.
But here's the M. Night Shyamalan twist: The Red Sox don't need a hitter who can tattoo the Green Monster. No team in the American League had a higher home slugging percentage than the Red Sox's .498, and no team in the American League scored more runs than the Red Sox's 481 -- or 5.93 per game.
The Red Sox need a hitter who can do some damage on the road.
Playing his games at Seattle's Safeco field, Beltre OPS'ed a woeful .702 at home in 2008 and .646 in 2009. On the road, though, where everything evens out, Beltre has OPS'ed .862 and .717, respectively, in the past two seasons
If you want to give Beltre a break for this season because of his injuries, it's worth pointing out that only Victor Martinez, Jason Bay and Kevin Youkilis OPS'ed better than .850 on the road for the Red Sox season.
If you don't want to give Beltre a break for this season, well, at least he'd become one of the few hitters in the Red Sox lineup who seems to be at least as comfortable cruising around the American League as he is in his home ballpark.
Oh, and Beltre has a career .534 slugging percentage at Yankee Stadium.
The biggest reason to make the investment in Beltre would be for the defensive upgrade at third base. His numbers at the plate actually are remarkably similar to those of Lowell -- and, in terms of OPS+, he's actually a little bit worse than Lowell.
But if the Red Sox are looking for someone who can hit on the road -- and, of course, for someone who can catch the ball -- Beltre might be just the guy.
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