Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Patriots-Jets: Who would you take?
A position-by-position breakdown seems to indicate that, yes, the Jets had a significantly more talented defense this season and will have a significantly more talented defense going forward, especially as the Patriots grapple with the uncertain situation surrounding Vince Wilfork and the Jets anticipating the return of their defense almost intact next season:
(In parentheses are the regular-season performance rankings by the film analysts at ProFootballFocus.com.)
Nose tackle
Jets: Sione Pouha (plus-15.2)
Patriots: Vince Wilfork (plus-9.6)
Rex Ryan's defense appears not to have lost much since the injury to Kris Jenkins. Pouha is a terrific run-stopper who can shed blocks quickly enough to make tackles. Wilfork, however, still is a Pro Bowler and one of the top nose tackles in the NFL. Edge: Patriots.
Defensive end
Jets: Shaun Ellis (minus-0.7), Marques Douglas (minus-2.7)
Patriots: Jarvis Green (minus-14.1), Ty Warren (plus-3.9)
Green had a chance to seize control of the job at defensive end upon the trade of Richard Seymour but too often found himself pushed off the line on running plays and unable to get close to the quarterback on passing plays. When Wilfork moved to end in the Patriots' playoff game, it was Green who went to the bench with Mike Wright playing the nose. In a 3-4 defense, the defensive linemen first and foremost must occupy blockers to give the linebackers a chance to make plays, and Douglas and Ellis did that better than Green and Warren. Edge: Jets.
Outside linebacker
Jets: Calvin Pace (plus-6.9), Bryan Thomas (plus-11.8)
Patriots: Tully Banta-Cain (plus-21.8), Adalius Thomas (minus-8.5)
As disappointing as Thomas was, that's how surprising Banta-Cain was. Pace, on the other hand, played a well-rounded game against both the run and the pass, even finishing with eight sacks, while Thomas thrived as a run-stopper off the edge, finishing the regular season with more than 50 tackles for the third time in four seasons. Edge: Jets.
Inside linebacker
Jets: David Harris (plus-6.8), Bart Scott (plus-4.7)
Patriots: Gary Guyton (minus-2.2), Jerod Mayo (minus-3.5)
No contest. While Mayo endured something of a disappointing second season, Harris emerged as a star alongside the veteran Scott, an import from Ryan's Baltimore Ravens defenses. Scott plugged the middle of the line on runs and Harris thrived both in blitzes and in pass coverage, finishing with 5 1/2 sacks, three pass break-ups and two interceptions. Edge: Jets.
Cornerback
Jets: Darrelle Revis (plus-29.1), Lito Sheppard (minus-1.7)
Patriots: Leigh Bodden (plus-6.8), Shawn Springs (plus-1.7)
Quarterbacks just don't throw at Revis. The Patriots haven't had anyone like that since the departure of Ty Law. Edge: Jets.
Strong safety
Jets: Jim Leonhard (plus-5.1)
Patriots: James Sanders (minus-1.4)
Leonhard, another Ryan import from Baltimore, had an uneven season against the run but broke up five passes and thrived in deep pass coverage. Sanders lost his job to Brandon McGowan early in the season and won it back down the stretch, finishing with his lowest tackle total (48) in three seasons. Edge: Jets.
Free safety
Jets: Kerry Rhodes (plus-11.0)
Patriots: Brandon Meriweather (plus-5.0)
Despite Meriweather's selection to the Pro Bowl, the last memory one will take into the offseason will be the way Ray Rice blew past him on his 83-yard run on the first play from scrimmage in the first round of the playoffs. Meriweather intercepted five passes and forced two fumbles, but his play generally was more inconsistent than it should have been. Rhodes, on the other hand, didn't have a particularly bad game all season, and he broke up 13 passes in his center-field role for the Jets. Edge: Push.
***
Let's revisit the question: Of the Jets' and Patriots' top 11 defenders, who would you take? In other words, if the rosters were combined, who of the Patriots' defenders would start?
Wilfork would start at nose. Warren would start at end with either Douglas or Ellis at the other end. Banta-Cain would be a third-down pass-rusher behind Pace, probably. Bodden would start at corner opposite Revis. Meriweather might -- might -- start at free safety instead of Rhodes, but that's a toss-up at best.
The Jets' top-ranked defense wasn't a fluke, and it's not going anywhere anytime soon. If quarterback Mark Sanchez takes a reasonable step forward in his second season, the Patriots are going to have some serious trouble hanging onto the AFC East title.
Monday, January 11, 2010
Automatic outs in the Red Sox lineup
Well, maybe.
The worst thing a player can do at the plate, after all, is make an out. The fewer outs a team makes, the more opportunities it will have to score runs. A home run tends to do the most damage, but the reason walks have become en vogue is because teams have started to realize that a walk beats virtually any result that involves making an out.
(The only exception might be a sacrifice fly or squeeze bunt that wins a game in the bottom of the ninth. Some might argue that a sacrifice fly trumps a walk with a runner on third and less than two outs -- but while a sacrifice fly plates one run and otherwise lets the air out of a rally, a walk puts another runner on base and makes a crooked-number inning more likely.)
And taking a backwards look at the Red Sox lineup -- measuring players' propensity to make outs rather than players' propensity to hit doubles or triples or home runs -- tells an interesting story:
2008
Ellsbury, .685 outs per at-bat
Pedroia, .668
Ortiz, .686
Youkilis, .605
Drew, .631
Bay, .635
Lowell, .715
Varitek, .701
Green, .744
Total: .669
2009 (with 2008 stats)
Ellsbury, .685 outs per at-bat
Pedroia, .668
Martinez, .644
Youkilis, .605
Ortiz, .686
Cameron, .682
Drew, .631
Beltre, .740
Scutaro, .649
Total: .664
(The American League average last season was .693.)
You can look at this a couple of ways:
1. The Red Sox probably are going to make outs at a lower clip than they did a year ago -- not significantly so, but the rate will be lower nonetheless. For all of the hand-wringing about how Theo Epstein has a worse offense next year than he had last year, well, his lineup has the potential to keep the line moving at an even better rate than it did last year.
2. The Red Sox don't have the black holes in their lineup that they had a year ago.
The biggest issue the Red Sox had a year ago was the lack of depth in their lineup. Once an opposing pitcher got past Jason Bay, he could cruise through the bottom third of the lineup. Lowell, Jason Varitek and Nick Green all averaged better than 0.7 outs per plate appearance a year ago.
(This figure does include double plays as well as sacrifice bunts and sacrifice flies. Double plays skew the numbers a little bit given that they, like RBIs, depend on whether runners are on base, but even Lowell -- the Red Sox leader last season with 24 GIDPs -- saw double plays account for a tiny fraction of his 346 outs.)
Of the hitters expected to start for the Red Sox on Opening Day next year, only Beltre averaged better than 0.7 outs per plate appearance last season -- and the potential exists for Beltre to see his numbers improve thanks to his move from Safeco Field to Fenway Park.
Pitchers won't get a break with the Red Sox lineup. No one other than Beltre can reasonably be expected to make outs at an above-average rate. Marco Scutaro is an enormous upgrade on Green even if his numbers regress from his career highs a year ago. Victor Martinez is an enormous upgrade on Varitek. Cameron is no Bay when it comes to avoiding outs, but he's still above average in that department.
Most importantly, as a team, the Red Sox lineup of a year ago got out more often than the Red Sox lineup of next year likely will. Backwards thinking sometimes can tell a fascinating story.
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Why the Red Sox shouldn't overreact
They're wrong.
In fact, it's pretty easy to demonstrate why the Red Sox already are vastly improved over the team they fielded on Opening Day last season -- a deal for Jason Bay or an adequate replacement notwithstanding.
Hold onto your hats: We're going to do this using the Wins Above Replacement statistic. The statistic itself is more complex than the NFL's quarterback rating, but here's the basic gist: It calculates how many runs a player produces at the plate and how many runs a player prevents in the field. You then compare this number to the number of runs an average player at that particular position would have produced and prevented.
Every 10 extra runs produced or prevented, people who are smarter than me have figured out, tends to turn into one extra win -- hence Wins Above Replacement. Voila.
The beauty of WAR is that it's cumulative. A guy who hits .300 and play 100 games is less valuable than a guy who hits .300 and plays 120 games. A relief pitcher with a 2.00 ERA in 70 innings is less valuable than a starting pitcher with a 4.00 ERA in 200 innings. (Really. We can go over it if you'd like.)
It's tough to quantify with other statistics just how significant it is that the Red Sox go from four months of Jason Varitek and two months of Victor Martinez to six months of Martinez. But because WAR is cumulative, we actually can add up four months of Varitek and two months of Martinez and add them together and compare them to six months of Martinez.
(This is, of course, all based on last season's numbers. But no one other than maybe Marco Scutaro seemed to have a career year and is due for a precipitous fall, and no one -- I'm looking at you, David Ortiz -- seems all that likely to have a huge bounce-back year that would skew the numbers dramatically.)
Catcher
2009, Varitek/Martinez: 2.4
(To do this, you have to take two-thirds of Varitek's 2009 WAR total and add it to one-third of Martinez's 2009 WAR total since he only played in Boston in August and September.)
2010, Martinez: 4.9
First base
Second base
Third base
All constants. If the Red Sox replace Mike Lowell with Adrian Beltre, that's an upgrade from 1.2 WAR to 2.4 WAR based mostly on the defense of the two respective players.
Shortstop
2009, Nick Green/Alex Gonzalez: 0.6
(The formula here is Green for four months plus Gonzalez for two months. This actually is even more generous than it appears because Julio Lugo managed a negative WAR in his tenure in Boston before he was designated for assignment.)
2010, Scutaro: 4.5
(Need another reminder why Scutaro is such an important pickup for the Red Sox? Even if he regresses to his numbers from two seasons ago, he's still at 2.7 and a two-win upgrade over the Green/Gonzalez duo of a year ago.)
Right field
Center field
Both constants.
Left field
2009, Jason Bay: 3.1
2010, Who knows?
Victor Martinez for an entire season in place of Victor Martinez for one-third of a season is a monster upgrade. Scutaro in place of Nick Green is another monster upgrade. That's the case -- and we can't emphasize this enough -- even if he regresses. Those two moves alone are worth at least five wins to the Red Sox.
If the Red Sox lose Bay, they'll need to make a move to replace him.
(It seems increasingly unlikely they'll lose Bay, by the way. The Angels have said they're out. The Mariners and their defense-first philosophy don't seem to be a fit. The Yankees always are lurking, but they've also made noise about keeping their payroll within reason. Who else is there? He ain't going back to Pittsburgh.)
If they do bring back Bay, there's no reason to go out and do something silly just because the Yankees made a trade for a center fielder.
Sunday, November 22, 2009
Neal, Green among Patriots' inactives
He'll be replaced by Dan Connolly, who allowed one quarterback pressure and drew negative ratings for his play in place of Neal against Indianapolis a week ago.
Sammy Morris, too, remains inactive with a knee injury. It'll be the fourth straight game Morris has missed -- and his physical running style is something the Patriots could have used in their short-yardage situations against Indianapolis a week ago. Some had expected Morris to return based on his participation in practice this week, but he'll instead spend the afternoon in street clothes.
The Patriots' defense, though, received some good news: Both Tully Banta-Cain and Ty Warren are active despite injuries that limited them in practice this week. Banta-Cain didn't practice at all until Friday thanks to the groin injury that knocked him out in the first quarter against the Colts, and Warren missed the Colts game with an ankle injury.
The rotation along the defensive line will be interesting to watch: Warren is and has always been a starter, but the Patriots seem to be liking the play of rookie Myron Pryor more and more. It wouldn't be surprising to see Pryor, Wilfork and Warren all on the field at the same time in a 3-4 scheme -- or for Pryor and Wilfork to play together at defensive tackle with Banta-Cain and Derrick Burgess flanking them.
One moderate surprise: Veteran cornerback Shawn Springs participated fully in practice all week and was listed as probable on the injury report, a sign a player is almost certainly going to play. The scratch might or might not be related to injury -- and it might be a sign of how far down on the depth chart Springs has fallen in the Patriots' defensive backfield.
Springs had his worst game of the season against Miami two weeks ago and was not active against Indianapolis. He's also not going to contribute as much on special teams as the younger and faster Terrence Wheatley, another possible reason for the decision.
Sunday, October 4, 2009
Patriots' 'D'-line suddenly looks deep
It got deep.
The Patriots began Sunday's game in a relatively routine 4-3 defense with Ty Warren, Vince Wilfork, Mike Wright and Jarvis Green on the line of scrimmage. The Ravens, however, reeled off a 15-play drive that ate up more than six and a half minutes -- and other than third-down or long-yardage situations in which the Patriots went to the dime defense, those four defensive linemen did not come off the field. (Wright and Green even stayed on the field for at least one of the third-down snaps, too.)
It was exactly the type of drive that can wear down a defensive line before the game even is 15 minutes old.
But the next time the Ravens took the field, Green was off the field and rookie Myron Pryor had taken his place -- playing defensive tackle with Wright shifting to defensive end. The drive after that, new acquisition Terdell Sands made his New England debut with Wright and Wilfork watching a few plays from the sidelines.
"That's an advantage for us, to rotate as many guys as we do," Wright said. "That just shows how much confidence the coaches have in the players, and it also shows how versatile we are."
The reason the Patriots signed Sands in the first place was a concern with depth on the defensive line. Richard Seymour, of course, was traded to the Oakland Raiders shortly before the season began, and Wilfork suffered an ankle injury a week ago and didn't practice until Friday.
But the Patriots found themselves with so much depth on Sunday they didn't even dress second-round pick Ron Brace. Green, Pryor, Sands, Wilfork and Wright all saw time at defensive tackle, and Green, Warren and Wright -- as well as third-down pass-rushers Tully Banta-Cain and Derrick Burgess -- all saw time at defensive end.
"Every week, it seems like everybody is coming together a little bit more," Wright said. "There's better communication out there -- especially with just getting comfortable with guys out there, knowing what other guys are doing, playing off their pass rush."
That's in part why, even though the Ravens had run more than 50 offensive plays to that point, the Patriots' trench defenders were fresh enough to make a third-and-1 and fourth-and-1 stop in the middle of the field with five minutes to go in the game.
"It's just doing your job and playing your technique," Wright said. "Vince did a great job on that fourth-and-1, and Tiny" -- the team's nickname for Warren -- "on the third-and-1 bullied his guy and made a play. It was huge for the defense."
Said Bill Belichick, "It looked like (the Ravens) opened the formation up, got some penetration inside. There’s a wall of bodies in there, so it’s hard to tell from the sideline, but they didn’t get much movement on the line of scrimmage."
The Patriots even had enough energy to chase Flacco all over the field, sacking the Ravens' second-year quarterback twice and hurrying him 10 times.
"Whenever the 'D'-line can make the quarterback throw the ball quick, you know it's some great pressure," safety Brandon McGowan said.
A key to that depth was the emergence of Sands, who signed with the Patriots on Monday but had enough of a handle on the playbook to make a contribution right away.
"He's a presence," Wright said. "He's huge up the middle, and he draws a lot of blocks. He's tall and can get his hands up and move guys around. It's huge for us to have a guy like that to step in and do work."
It wasn't perfect: One one third-and-2 snap late in the second quarter, linebacker Adalius Thomas grabbed Sands by the hips and shoved him to his left to make sure he was lined up in the right gap. But it was more than acceptable for his first career game.
"I don't know what they're doing with him, but I'm sure they're probably keeping it simple," Wright said. "Five days is not that much to get what we've been putting in since minicamps, so I'm sure they're putting a little in every day."
(Note: Of the Patriots' defensive linemen, only Wright was in the locker room after the door was opened to reporters.)
Saturday, October 3, 2009
Red Sox defense still an issue in some ways
The team's biggest weakness, in a lot of ways, might be its defense. That's not to say that the defense is bad, per se, but back in mid-May, the Red Sox certainly weren't giving their pitchers much in the way of help. (The link will take you to a snapshot in mid-May of where the Red Sox stood on the Ultimate Zone Rating and Fielding Bible Plus-Minus leaderboards.)
As the season winds to a close, though, it might be a good idea to check back and see how the Red Sox fared in some of the advanced statistical measures. (We'll use UZR/150 -- averaging the numbers across 150 games -- rather than straight UZR because rate stats, as we've discussed, give a better sense than counting stats. Plus-minus is a counting stat.)
First base
UZR/150
1. Travis Ishikawa, plus-13.5
2. Casey Kotchman, 7.5
3. Kevin Youkilis, 7.1
Plus-minus
1. Albert Pujols, plus-15
t-2. Kevin Youkilis, plus-14
(In the ongoing "Kevin Youkilis ought to be the MVP runner-up behind Joe Mauer" debate, his ability to deliver terrific defense at first base and adequate defense at third base ought to be a big, big pactor.)
Second base
UZR/150
1. Ben Zobrist, plus-24.1
2. Dustin Pedroia, 9.1
(Yes, the gap is that wide.)
Plus-minus
1. Ian Kinsler and Ben Zobrist, plus-23
t-5. Dustin Pedroia, plus-12
(Pedroia might not buy into advanced defensive statistics, but they sure do reflect well upon him.)
Third base
UZR/150
1. Ryan Zimmerman, plus-16
29. Mike Lowell, minus-10.2
Plus-minus
1. Chone Figgins, plus-41
35. Mike Lowell, minus-23
(Were you expecting anything else?)
Shortstop
UZR/150
1. Jack Wilson, plus-15.2
6. Alex Gonzalez, plus-7.0
10. Nick Green, plus-5.3
Plus-minus
1. Jack Wilson, plus-32
19. Nick Green, plus-1
27. Alex Gonzalez, minus-5
(There's a discrepancy between the two interpretations of Gonzalez's defense. There's no such discrepancy below.)
Left field
UZR/150
1. Juan Rivera, plus-14.2
12. Jason Bay, minus-8.0
Plus-minus
1. Carl Crawford, plus-32
26. Jason Bay, minus-9
(That's still not good, but it's certainly better than you saw from Bay earlier in the year. The Fielding Bible has him at minus-14 on deep fly balls but plus-6 on medium-range fly balls.)
Center field
UZR/150
1. Franklin Gutierrez, plus-19.2
26. Jacoby Ellsbury, minus-12.6
Plus-minus
1. Franklin Gutierrez, plus-42
29. Jacoby Ellsbury, minus-8
(The Fielding Bible has Ellsbury at minus-12 on shallow fly balls -- which actually should seem about right to anyone who's seen the way he reads shallow fly balls off the bat.)
Right field
UZR/150
1. Ryan Sweeney, plus-20.5
8. J.D. Drew, plus-9.7
Plus-minus
1. Ichiro Suzuki, plus-22
t-10. J.D. Drew, plus-11
(As much as Drew doesn't get credit for his contributions at the plate, he really doesn't get credit for his contributions in one of the biggest right fields in baseball.)
As a team, for the season, the Red Sox rank 17th in the major leagues with an UZR/150 of minus-2.3.
It's not as abysmal as it was earlier in the season. Nick Green saw improvement as the year progressed, and replacing Julio Lugo with Alex Gonzalez certainly helped. Playing Mike Lowell at third base less has helped as well -- in infield with Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia and Casey Kotchman is actually a pretty impressive defensive infield.
But while J.D. Drew continues to be an above-average defensive outfielder, both Jason Bay and Jacoby Ellsbury continue to receive low marks. Fortunately for the Red Sox, neither this park nor this park feature the type of cavernous left-center field gap that could cause problems.
Friday, October 2, 2009
Projecting the ALDS roster
There's no reason, though, why we can't go ahead and speculate.
Here, then, is a preliminary look at how the roster might shape up -- and this is independent of which schedule the Yankees choose to play:
Pitchers (10): Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, Clay Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka; Daniel Bard, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Ramon Ramirez, Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner.
The Red Sox, either way, are going to want four starting pitchers on their postseason roster. If they play the shorter of the two ALDS schedules, they'll need to start Matsuzaka. If they play the longer of the two ALDS schedules, they'll need a starting pitcher in reserve just in case: Imagine the nightmare scenario in which Jon Lester takes another line drive off the knee in Game 1, not only torching the bullpen but sidelining him for Game 4.
(The Red Sox could remove him from the roster and replace him, but he'd then be ineligible for the ALCS. If the injury was severe enough to cost him a start but not enough to cost him three starts, they wouldn't want to do that.)
The question, then, becomes how many relief pitchers the Red Sox will need. A year ago, they chose to go with 10 pitchers, total, with Paul Byrd as the long reliever and emergency starter. (He did not appear in a game.) There's no reason they'd change that number this year.
Both David Aardsma and Mike Timlin were left off the roster for the ALDS a year ago, but Timlin was added for the ALCS. It appears that the roller-coaster ride that is Manny Delcarmen will fill the same role: He'll keep throwing and be ready in case someone blows out an elbow during the ALDS, but he likely won't be on the roster until the ALCS.
Catchers (3): George Kottaras, Victor Martinez, Jason Varitek.
It might be tempting to go with just two catchers thanks to Martinez's flexibility, but it's far too risky: If Martinez were to sprain an ankle, the Red Sox would have just one true catcher on the roster. Kottaras might not play, but he's necessary insurance.
Infielders (6): Alex Gonzalez, Casey Kotchman, Mike Lowell, Jed Lowrie, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis.
Lowrie earns the nod over Nick Green as a backup middle infielder both because he's healthier and because he's the better player. Green deserves all the praise that has come his way this season for helping the Red Sox tread water at shortstop, but if Lowrie is healthy enough, he should be the guy.
(Note: Gonzalez was hit by a pitch on Saturday night and removed from the game. If it's anything serious and Green still can't go, you might see Chris Woodward fill that spot.)
Outfielders (5): Rocco Baldelli, Jason Bay, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury and Joey Gathright.
Leaving an extra pitcher off the roster means the Red Sox have the luxury of adding Gathright for late-inning substitutions -- he can fill the Dave Roberts pinch-running role, but he also could replace Bay in the outfield late in a close game.
Designated hitter (1): David Ortiz.
The guy has something of a postseason history, it seems.
Monday, September 28, 2009
Green and Lowrie remain question marks
The verdict? He's almost back.
"His hope is that he can maybe get into a game in a couple of days," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said. "We'll see. The good news is that he's actually thinking about getting in a game in a couple of days. ... That might be a little bit quick for me. We'll see. The fact that he thinks he can get into a game means he's going in the right direction."
Green spent much of the season as the Red Sox's starting shortstop, an emergency fill-in for Jed Lowrie (wrist) and Julio Lugo (unacceptably bad defense) until Theo Epstein acquired defensive whiz Alex Gonzalez in mid-August. He's had his moments -- his walk-off home run on Father's Day remains one of the season's indelible memories -- but his batting average had slid from .321 in May to .233 in June and .143 in July.
Lowrie, on the other hand, has endured more than his share of setbacks since he opened the season as the team's starting shortstop. He underwent surgery on his left wrist in late April and has spent all season trying to work his way back. The switch-hitter has no issues hitting righthanded, but he twice has felt numbness in his hand after a lefthanded checked swing and had to shut his rehabilitation back down.
He pinch-hit against Angels lefty Brian Fuentes a week ago and hit a rope down the third-base line that almost went for a double. He made his first start in six weeks against Yankees lefty CC Sabathia on Saturday, and he hit a fly ball to the warning track in center field, another encouraging sign.
But Lowrie and the Red Sox aren't yet ready to risk seeing him swing lefthanded. He has no limitations in the field or hitting righthanded, but he's not nearly as comfortable hitting lefty as he is hitting righty.
"Like I said from the beginning, I told them that hitting righthanded is fine," he said. "(Hitting lefthanded) is progressing. It's kind of been baby steps, but I guess that's still progress."
That poses a problem for the Red Sox. Green won't be 100 percent when the playoffs begin -- but if Lowrie is the utility infielder and something happens either to Gonzalez or Dustin Pedroia, he might not be able to hit in consecutive games against John Lackey, Ervin Santana or Jered Weaver.
It's not the worst problem in the world, but it would save quite a bit of hand-wringing if Green can show this week that he's fully recovered.
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Three shortstops lift Red Sox to win
Sensational at-bats from all three in the bottom of Wednesday's ninth inning lifted the Red Sox to one of their wildest wins of the season.
1. Jed Lowrie
"Selectively."
That's the word Red Sox manager Terry Francona said last week when asked how he expected to use Lowrie, his Opening Day shortstop and a player who has fought through as many setbacks as the Red Sox have gone through replacements. Lowrie began the season with the Red Sox but underwent wrist surgery in late April to resolve an issue that wasn't allowing him to swing the way he wanted to swing. Numbness in his wrist cut short a return in July, and further numbness sidelined him during a rehab stint at Triple-A Pawtucket.
His return to the major-league roster seemed almost a formality, a chance to reward him for his hard work with a pat on the back and a front-row seat for the stretch run. If the right situation presented itself, well, maybe he'd get an at-bat. You know: "Selectively."
It was a heck of a situation to select.
"I realized the situation, and I know what's going on," he said. "It's hard not to recognize that when everyone at Fenway is on their feet. You'd be a robot if you didn't recognize that. But once you get in the box, it goes back to, 'Let's get the job done.'"
Catcher Dusty Brown wasn't going to hit, not when he's only on the 40-man roster as insurance behind the team's two primary catchers. Lowrie has hit lefties far better than righties in his short major-league career, and with lefty closer Brian Fuentes on the mound, the timing seemed right.
"We wanted to get him in a situation where he hit righthanded," Francona said. "They get to Fuentes, so we know they're staying with him."
Lowrie, then, strode to the plate for the first time since Aug. 4 -- and for the first time in a truly meaningful spot since his single through the right side eliminated the Angels from last season's playoffs.
It didn't take long for the deja vu: He jumped on a breaking ball, just like he did last year, and he ripped a worm-burner through the infield, just like he did last year.
But Angels third baseman Chone Figgins dove and got a piece of his glove on the ball to knock it down deep behind third base. All three runners advanced easily, but the acrobatic effort from Figgins prevented a run from scoring and brought the next hitter to the plate.
2. Nick Green
"I was battling for my life," the journeyman shortstop said in an otherwise empty clubhouse late Wednesday night, the divider between his locker and Dustin Pedroia's locker supporting his weight. "I seriously did not think I could get a hit."
It's the simplest thing in the world for a hitter to do upon drawing a walk to toss the bat aside and jog to first base. But Nick Green could hardly do that. A right leg that's bothered him over the last couple of days almost collapsed underneath him while he was flailing at pitches up in the zone from Angels closer Brian Fuentes.
The problem dates back a couple of days. Green can't pinpoint any incident as the source of his injury, but he's felt soreness and weakness in his right leg since the series against the Angels began. It just didn't seem so bad because he wasn't playing in games.
He didn't tell anyone about the soreness. He didn't think it was a big deal. He even hit off a tee in the middle innings just in case he needed to pinch-hit. Headed into the bottom of the ninth, he considered taking a few more swings but decided against it.
He then came to the plate to pinch-hit for lefty Casey Kotchman with the bases loaded and two outs, the Red Sox still trailing by a run.
His first swing wasn't pretty. His second swing was worse.
"I don't think I even could have put the ball in play," said Green, whose playing time has almost evaporated since the arrival of Alex Gonzalez. "Go look at the replay. Go look at all the swings. ... I couldn't really swing."
When he checked his swing on a fastball up at his eyes, he almost fell down, and that only made it worse.
(The irony there is that Lowrie twice aggravated his wrist injury by checking his swing, setbacks that prolonged his absence by close to a month.)
Green still somehow managed to foul off three straight pitches after that. Two were out of the strike zone, but one was right in his wheelhouse.
"There is no reason I shouldn't put one of those balls in play," he said.
The ninth pitch of the at-bat, though, is the one Fuentes and the Angels won't forget. A hurting Green stood with his bat on his shoulder and watched a 91-mile-an-hour fastball cut the plate right in half.
Umpire Rick Reed stood still. Ball four.
"It's a good umpiring crew, and I think we really feel strongly they missed a couple of times we had Green struck out," Angels manager Mike Scioscia said. "That's the focal point of the game, and it didn't go our way."
Said Green, "I thought it was low, and apparently (Reed) did, too."
He then had to drag himself to first base, something that took more effort than anyone in the ballpark understood at the time.
"I almost collapsed every single swing," he said, "and I almost collapsed walking down to first and almost collapsed when I was leading off."
The call might have been wrong -- replays seemed to indicate that the pitch was right down the middle of the plate -- but the normally free-swinging Green still put up a hellacious battle on one leg. It's not easy to draw a walk when you don't get many chances to swing the bat.
"I told Greenie I had a boatload of possible scenarios for his (at-bat)," left fielder Jason Bay said, "and walking wasn't one of them. It's just a testament to him. You don't play that much, and you go up there and you want to do too much. You want to try to win the ballgame. To try to do what he did is even tougher than it looks."
3. Alex Gonzalez
The Red Sox acquired Gonzalez for his glove, plain and simple. Any base hit he mustered would be a bonus. All they needed for him to do was to make every play at shortstop, to make the plays Green and Julio Lugo hadn't made that had cost the Red Sox runs and wins.
Entering play Wednesday, Gonzalez was hitting .287 and had 11 RBI in his first 27 games with the Red Sox. His defense, though, still is what keeps him in the lineup every day.
"What he does out at short, there's not many in the game who can match what he does out there," catcher Jason Varitek said. "That's still a level of importance. But he's come up with some big hits for us."
Said Lowrie, "He's done an amazing job with the bat."
Gonzalez might not have hit for himself if Terry Francona had anyone else available. But with Francona down to fourth catcher George Kottaras, he had no choice but to send his defensive specialist to the plate in the biggest spot of the game.
Gonzalez had provided one encouraging sign in his previous at-bat: He'd walked. He'd gone 99 plate appearances with the Red Sox to that point without managing to draw a walk -- a phenomenal accomplishment particularly when you consider how much the Red Sox stress plate discipline in their hitters. David Ortiz walked more times in Wednesday's game alone than Gonzalez had in his first 27 games with the Red Sox.
But he fought off a couple of breaking balls -- "They were throwing me a lot of breaking balls," he said -- and took ball four when a Darren Oliver fastball ran so far in on him even he couldn't think about taking a swing at it.
"I think I got the ball and the base," he said with a grin.
Fuentes started him in the ninth inning with a fastball (foul ball), a slider (low for a ball) and a fastball (foul ball). He couldn't have been more sure a breaking ball was coming even if catcher Mike Napoli had whispered to him Crash Davis-style.
"I know it's coming," he said. "They've been throwing me a lot of breaking balls last night and tonight."
It wasn't quite a breaking ball: It was a changeup down at the knees. But Gonzalez got under it and lofted it gently into short left field. Left fielder Juan Rivera might have had a chance at it but chose not to dive, and the collision of ball and grass set off a wild celebration.
"When I hit it, I hit it like he throw it: I hit it just soft enough," Gonzalez said. "I don't hit it good, but I hit it in the right spot."
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Nick Green can throw a cutter
Scott Podsednik was at the plate and had just taken a first-pitch fastball for a ball up and out of the zone. That had come on the heels of a walk issued to Jayson Nix -- and that had come on the heels of a walk to former Red Sox outfielder Mark Kotsay. ("I was so pissed I friggin' walked him," Green said.)
When Green missed with his first pitch to Podsednik, Martinez called time and made the trip out to the mound for a little light conversation.
"'Get on top of the ball,'" Martinez said he told Green. "You've got to expect that from a position player. You take ground balls and throw the ball to first, but it's not the same as throwing the ball from the mound to home plate."
Said Green, "He jabbered some stuff like, 'Get on top of the ball,' but I knew what I needed to do. He was just breaking it out. It wasn't really a conversation. We just said, 'Hello,' and he walked back."
It worked. Green threw a couple of four-seam fastballs and a two-seam fastball to Podsednik to get ahead in the count -- and to get two strikes on a hitter for the first time in his outing.
Podsednik then slashed at a fastball up in the zone and bounced it right back to Green on the mound. If you're a position player pitching, you'd better be able to field your position -- and Green scooped the ball without a problem. It was his throw over to first base that was the problem. For the second time in his outing, he threw a rocket to Casey Kotchman at first base in a situation that called for an underhand lob.
"It felt like I waited for him for 15 minutes to get over to first base," he said. "Usually, when I catch the ball at shortstop, I can throw it over and he's there. I catch it (on Thursday) and I'm like, 'Uh, uh, get over there!'"
"That was ridiculous," said Kevin Youkilis, who had moved from first base to third base earlier in the game. "I'm glad I wasn't playing first base. I would have thrown it back to him as hard as I could."
(Youkilis had to yell to Green at one point not to lick his fingers on the mound: "I was like, 'You can't do that anymore! You can do that in high school. You can't do that here!')
The last time Green pitched in a game was a decade or so ago as a freshman at Georgia Perimeter College, the alma mater of major leaguers Marlon Byrd and Robby Hammock. He didn't throw then much faster than he throws now -- and that's the only reason he even had a slider grip at all.
But the Red Sox were almost out of pitchers on a night in which rookie Junichi Tazawa could do nothing but leave the ball over the plate to get pounded. Billy Wagner had thrown a side session in the middle of the afternoon and wasn't available. Takashi Saito had slept on his neck wrong. He wasn't available, either. Hideki Okajima, Daniel Bard, Ramon Ramirez and Jonathan Papelbon each had appeared twice already in the Chicago series and thus would have been pitching for the third time in four games. Beyond Manny Delcarmen, who pitched the sixth and seventh innings, there was no one left.
Terry Francona and pitching coach John Farrell approached Green in the third inning to ask him to pitch. Green didn't want to pitch, but he understood the bind his team was in.
"Given the situation tonight with two guys unavailable and two others having, if we pitched them tonight, it would have been three of the last four days," Farrell said. "While it's a never situation you envision yourself in, (Green) helped keep some guys from having to come in and pitch innings and kept us rested going into this series tomorrow."
Said Green, "He told me the way it was going to work: Manny two (innings) and Ramon one and then I would come in. I told Farrell, 'I'm going to be pitching the eighth?' I was like, 'Who's going to be pitching the ninth?'"
As it turned out, well, he was.
Green and Rocco Baldelli wandered back into the batting cage behind the dugout during the fourth or fifth inning, and Green began to experiment with whatever repertoire he had left.
"I know he's got a really strong arm from shortstop, and he looked pretty strong in the cage, too," said Baldelli, who replaced Jacoby Ellsbury in center field even before Green made his appearance on the mound. "When he got out there, it was actually moving, too. He was throwing some that were cutting, and he was throwing some that were tailing."
He then made the trip out to the bullpen and threw to Jason Varitek, the designated bullpen catcher of the evening. He further made refinements to his repertoire, ditching a changeup that "almost killed" the veteran catcher, he said.
But Varitek wasn't worried about his health as much as he was the health of a guy who's had more than 300 plate appearances for the Red Sox this season.
"You just don't want somebody to get hurt in that situation," he said. "We need Nick to be able to do his job. ... I hope wasn't overthrowing."
Green did not, in fact, overthrow. He hit 90 on the Fenway Park radar gun on his first pitch, eliciting the same type of reaction from the Fenway Park crowd that Bard gets when he hits 100. He threw 92 or 93 when he pitched in junior college but wasn't worried about speed on Thursday as much as he was getting the ball over the plate.
Did the Red Sox know he could hit 90? Nope.
"We know he's got well above-average arm strength for an infielder," Farrell said, "but you don't evaluate that arm strength for the thought that one day he'd be pitching on the mound."
As impressive as it was that he hit 90 miles an hour, his speed wasn't what got him his outs. His movement was what got him outs. Check out the chart:
The MLB Gameday system classified more of his pitches as cut fastballs (21) than regular two- or four-seam fastballs (12). That, he said, was completely unintentional.
"I didn't know it was going to move," he said. "I was trying to throw it straight. Well, not all the time. But for the most part, I was trying to throw it straight."
He threw one slider, burying it in the dirt to lefty Paul Konerko. But he wanted nothing more to do with his breaking ball after that.
"I actually shook Victor off one time," he said. "He wanted me to throw a slider, and I was like, 'Nah. I'll just throw a fastball.'"
His biggest issue throughout his outing was leaving the ball up in the zone, as is made obvious by his chart:
He even came away with a greater appreciation of how hard it is for the pitcher to hit the strike zone. The first pitch he threw to the first batter he faced was a fastball letter-high, and Jeff Nelson called it a ball.
"When I threw it, I thought it was a strike," he said. "I was like, 'That's a ball? Sweet. I don't know what I'm going to do to throw a strike.'"
In the book, though, it all goes down as two scoreless innings -- and a 0.00 ERA for his career. Bench coach Brad Mills even stuffed the lineup card into his locker after the game.
"I was talking to Billy Wagner," Green said, "and he was like, 'Yeah, if I'd thrown that many balls, I'd have given up four or five runs.' I was lucky to not give up a hit and no runs. It was fun."
Monday, July 13, 2009
Green or Lowrie? There's no debate
Nick Green came into this season as a .240 hitter with a .656 OPS in 799 major-league plate appearances. He's a .240 hitter. Maybe he's a .250 hitter. But that's it.
He hit .275 in April and hit .321 in May. His batting average, at that point, was .298. His OPS -- on-base plus slugging -- was .783.
But, as we might have expected, he's regressing to the mean. He's 20 for 106 (.189) since June 1, and his OPS has slowly dwindled:
May: .784
June: .698
July (so far): .580
He has six hits in his last 45 at-bats (.133) with a .264 on-base percentage -- and his on-base percentage is only that high because he faced Bruce Chen and Robinson Tejeda on Sunday. (When a pitcher goes 0 for his first 13 in trying to throw strikes to Jason Bay, you have to take Green's three walks, a career high, with a grain of salt.)
Green's overall numbers, thanks to his hot start, still don't look terrible: He's hitting over .250 and OPS'ing over .700. That's led many to believe there's a debate afoot: Who's going to play shortstop full-time upon Jed Lowrie's return?
Green remains a valuable asset as an infielder. He can play at least three positions and has seen his defense at shortstop improve by leaps and bounds since a rough start to the season. (His UZR/150 was minus-16.6 in early June but is now plus-12.2, and he's gone more than a month without making an error.)
But Lowrie can hold his own defensively. A year ago, in fact, he had an UZR/150 of plus-24.6 and made zero errors in 49 games at shortstop. He's also a better hitter when he's healthy -- even with the wrist injury that plagued him last year, he put up better numbers (.739 OPS) than Green has this season (.721 OPS).
Green will allow the Red Sox to work Lowrie back slowly, but there's no question who should be starting the majority of games at shortstop at Fenway Park.
Sunday, June 21, 2009
Green's highlight reel keeps growing
Green, as has been well-documented, ended up making the 25-man roster thanks to Lugo's knee surgery, and he stuck on the roster thanks to Lowrie's wrist surgery. Brown got his first call to the major leagues late Saturday night when Terry Francona and Theo Epstein realized they had a chance to add an extra catcher once Daisuke Matsuzaka was placed on the disabled list.
"He played so well in spring training, you hoped he would get a shot," Brown said, "and he did."
Brown, wearing an I'm-only-here-until-Thursday No. 59 on his back, was out in the bullpen warming up Manny Delcarmen when he heard a sharp crack of the bat on the first pitch of the bottom of the ninth inning.
"I didn't even get a very good look at it," he said. "I heard it and the crowd started cheering, ... and the next thing I know, it gets louder and he's rounding the bases. It was cool."
That it was. In the Hollywood story that is the Red Sox career of Nick Green, it might not ever get any better than this.
Green himself, though, wasn't totally aware of what was going on. All he knew was that he'd seen a fastball he liked, and he'd taken his best whack at it. He knew he'd hit it pretty well, but a fierce wind blowing in all afternoon already had knocked down a couple of would-be home runs -- including a bullet to center field by Atlanta's Nate McLouth in the fifth inning and Casey Kotchman in the seventh.
"McLouth couldn't hit it any harder to right, and that's Casey Kotchman's best shot," Braves manager Bobby Cox said. "He crushed that ball."
Said Green, "The last thing I wanted to do was hit the ball in the air right there. The wind was so bad. I thought I hit it decent to right field, but I thought it was going to be caught."
Green actually helped himself by hitting it down the right-field line -- the wind wasn't quite as fierce there as it was in the alleys. He didn't know it was gone until he saw it settle into the bleachers behind the Pesky Pole.
But it wasn't until he looked back at home plate, where a mob of white jerseys were in a Father's Day frenzy, that it dawned on him what he'd really done.
"For some reason, I didn't comprehend it was the bottom of the ninth until I hit second base," said Green, who hit a walk-off home run for the Braves against the Red Sox five years ago. "Once I hit second, I saw everybody at home plate and realized what was going on."
He didn't even get his helmet off in time. David Ortiz -- who hit a home run himself, his sixth of the season -- has perfected the art of the helmet toss in the home stretch of his trot to the plate. Green, though, hasn't done it enough to know better -- and he got himself pummeled. He had his helmet on when he disappeared into the mob, but it was long gone by the time he emerged.
"I was hoping not to get hit, but I did," Green said. "I'm sure a couple of people enjoyed it -- Josh Beckett, for one."
Green had to have enjoyed it, too, even if he'll wake up with a couple of bruises on Monday morning. He hasn't just turned shortstop from a position of weakness for the Red Sox almost into a position of strength. He's made some very real contributions to a team that's as well-positioned to win the World Series as any in the game.
"We've talked a lot about the evolution of this from non-roster in spring training," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said. "It's gotten to the point where he's just been a really good player -- not just a really good non-roster player., but a really good major-league player, hopefully, on a winning team."
Walk-off or no walk-off, though, he still sees himself as that same guy who was fighting for everything he could get back in spring training. Heck, he still owns a "Rescue Squad" T-shirt.
"I still feel like I'm still filling a hole," he said. "It's one of those things where, if I get overconfident, I'm probably going to not do well. I still feel like I'm a utility guy at the moment. Except that I'm a shortstop, per se, I'm just going to do whatever job they want me to do."
Friday, June 12, 2009
Lugo might be done in Boston
Every Red Sox player in the locker room pulled out their travel ensembles after polishing off a sweep of the Yankees. Ramon Ramirez looked particularly sharp in a gray suit with a pink shirt underneath. But Lugo pulled out all the stops, starting with the red pants and continuing with the blue coat he wore over a dress shirt with red and white stripes.
Lugo, of course, didn't play an inning in the Red Sox's sweep of the Yankees this week. He hasn't appeared in a game in a week -- not since he failed to make a routine-looking play up the middle the last time Penny took the mound. He hasn't gotten a hit since May 29 -- a span in whch he's only had seven plate appearances.
Nick Green, meanwhile, sparked the eighth-inning rally with a single up the middle and helped preserve the lead with a sensational stab of a ground ball up the middle in the top of the ninth, spinning and throwing just in time to nip Derek Jeter by a step.
"That was awesome," second baseman Dustin Pedroia said. "Obviously, the ball is probably all wet, and Jeter runs well. To get that leadoff guy out, that's huge for us. ... He's got a lot of range, and obviously a great arm, too, so when he gets to it, it's going to be an out."
Green hit .364 (4-for-11) with a double and a home run in the three games against the Yankees. Even better, he's gone more than a week without making an error -- an impressive feat given that he made nine errors in his first 37 games. His spin-and-throw gem on Thursday and his throw to double up Nick Swisher on Wednesday were two of the biggest defensive plays in the three-game series.
Where does that leave Lugo?
It's not hard to connect the dots.
Jed Lowrie went with the Red Sox to Philadelphia last night but will head to Lowell on Monday to take live batting practice against some of the draft picks. If all goes well, the Red Sox could send him out on a rehabilitation stint as early as Thursday. He could be back in the lineup within two weeks.
The Red Sox, though, can't carry three shortstops. Someone has to go once Lowrie returns.
It isn't going to be Green.
Terry Francona, of course, refused to take the bait Thursday afternoon when a reporter asked him about his shortstop situation. There still are too many variables -- not the least of which is the health of Lowrie.
"I don't they're going to let us carry 26 players," he said. "You're getting way ahead of me. Why in the world would I make out our lineup for July? I'm happy I just got through tonight's. I'd never do that. ...
"I just want to get (Lowrie) healthy. When he gets healthy, I'll be really healthy to have him back -- and then we'll figure out what the hell to do."
Lugo is owed $9 million this season and $9 million next season. The Red Sox, though, aren't adamantly opposed to eating contracts if it means making their team better.
Francona won't say anything -- but his actions, as they say, speak louder than words. Green is his starter at shortstop right now. Lowrie, you have to assume, is ahead of Green on the depth chart when he's healthy.
That leaves Lugo as the odd man out. His Red Sox career easily could be over by the end of this month.
Sunday, May 24, 2009
Green feels for what Lugo is going through
Because Lugo has been about as frustrating as a shortstop can get -- and don't think his flat-footed throw in Friday's loss to the Mets didn't drive Red Sox management crazy -- Green has started back-to-back games and appears once again to be the team's starting shortstop.
"I don't know how it's going to play," he said. "When I play, I'm not ambushed. They've been great about that. As long as I have a heads-up, I'm happy -- whenever they put me in, I'll play."
He actually thought he might not be able to play on Sunday; he thought he might have broken his finger trying to make a barehanded play on a ground ball in the seventh inning on Saturday. But he had his finger checked out on Sunday morning, he was told he was back in the starting lineup for the second straight day.
He made every play in the field, and his two-run single in the fifth inning plated what turned out to be the game-winning run. (He even alertly got himself into a rundown to make sure George Kottaras could score from second.) He's now hitting .309 and OBP'ing .369; he's actually outproducing Jacoby Ellsbury at the plate in several different measures.
He certainly feels good about the way he's playing. But that doesn't mean he feels good about watching Lugo endure what he's having to endure.
"It's tough," said Green, who played second base alongside Lugo for Tampa Bay in 2005. "I've known him for four years. He's a good guy, and I don't ever want to see anybody be treated poorly. The fans have every right to say what they say, but he's an individual and it's tough for me and tough for the team. We don't really know how he feels about the whole thing, so it's a tough situation. I always want him to do the best he can do, and he's been awesome to me for the four years I've known him. It's kind of tough."
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Maybe it's not the pitching
Starting pitching was supposed to be the strength of this Red Sox team. Now, all of a sudden, we're getting all excited because Josh Beckett and Justin Masterson are turning in back-to-back "hardly dominant" but effective starts. Beckett has an ERA of 5.85. Jon Lester has an ERA of 6.51. Brad Penny, going into his start Wednesday, had an ERA of 6.69.
There's only so much pitchers can do, though. If they strike a guy out, great -- and Red Sox pitchers have 285 strikeouts, second-best in the American League. If they walk a guy, that's not great -- and Red Sox pitchers have 149 walks, fourth-worst in the American League. (Their strikeout-to-walk ratio is 191, just slightly above the league average.)
But if the ball gets put in play, then what happens? Couldn't defense play as much of a role in this as pitching? The Rangers and Mariners have played their way into contention on the strength of great defense. The Red Sox, as it turns out, have shot themselves in the foot with lousy defense at key positions.
Here's one indication: The Red Sox pitching staff has an opponents' BAPIP (batting average on balls put in play) of .311, 11 points higher than the league average. Lester's opponents' BAPIP is .385; Beckett's is .352. Even Justin Masterson's is .350 -- and he's a sinkerball pitcher who should be seeing infielders feast on the ground balls he's inducing.
Here's another: Ultimate zone rating.
Like a few of the stats that are making their way into the public consciousness -- or, say, football's quarterback rating -- it's difficult to define Ultimate Zone Rating. The basic idea is to measure the number of outs a player records (and, thus, the number of runs a player prevents) in his particular area of the field.
Suffice to say, a fielder with an UZR of 4.0 has saved his team approximately four runs; a fielder with an UZR of -4.0 has cost his team approximately four runs.
Let's look at the UZR leaderboard so far this season:
First base
1. Chris Davis, Texas: 3.9
7. Kevin Youkilis: 1.4
Second base
t-1. Ian Kinsler, Texas: 5.4
t-1. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee: 5.4
10. Dustin Pedroia: 1.4
Shortstop
1. Marco Scutaro, Toronto: 4.9
18. Nick Green: 1.2
Third base
1. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington: 6.7
18. Mike Lowell: -2.0
Right field
1. Jay Bruce, Cincinnati: 8.0
12. J.D. Drew: -0.3
Center field
1. Mike Cameron, Milwaukee: 7.8
9. Jacoby Ellsbury: 0.8
Left field
1. Nyjer Morgan: 8.3
16. Jason Bay: -9.0
(No big-league left fielder has a worse UZR rating than Bay.)
We could try another rating, too: The Fielding Bible's plus-minus rating. Plus-minus measures a player's ability to get outs against an average defensive player at his position. The higher the plus-minus number, the more outs the player has recorded. So far this season:
First base
t-1. Billy Butler, Kansas City: +5
t-1. Kevin Youkilis: +5
Second base
1. Ian Kinsler, Texas: +10
t-8. Dustin Pedroia: +3
Shortstop
1. Marco Scutaro, Toronto: +12
t-19. Nick Green: 0
Third base
1. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington: +13
33. Mike Lowell: -9
Right field
1. Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle: +6
t-3. J.D. Drew: +4
Center field
t-1. Matt Kemp, Los Angeles: +7
t-1. Chris Young, Arizona: +7
22. Jacoby Ellsbury: 0
Left field
t-1. Matt Holliday, Oakland: +7
t-1. Nyjer Morgan, Pittsburgh: +7
31. Jason Bay: -2
By both measures, the Red Sox have gotten average defense in center field (Ellsbury's first-inning catch on the warning track on Wednesday notwithstanding), below-average defense at shortstop, and absolutely miserable defense at third base and in left field.
The thing is, though, Bay and Ellsbury have exactly zero errors to their credit this season. According to the statistic that most influences a pitcher's ERA, Bay and Ellsbury are perfect fielders -- but according to In the outfield, if you don't get to a ball, you almost never get charged with an error -- but that means every ball Bay doesn't get to turns into a hit for which his pitcher is charged.
And remember the Saturday afternoon a week and a half ago when Lester induced what seemed like six straight slow ground balls only to see every single one of them roll into left field between Lowell and Julio Lugo? Lester was charged with six earned runs in that inning despite allowing only one hard-hit ball; no errors were charged to anyone. But if one or two of those ground balls had been fielded and Lester had escaped that inning unscathed, his ERA would be 5.36 right now as opposed to 6.51.
That's how much impact defense can have on a pitching staff.
And that might be why Boston pitchers are having so much trouble.
Friday, April 24, 2009
Lugo on verge of return
Every reporter who covers the Red Sox has written the obligatory Nick Green story. Every single one. It's pretty much at the point where there's not a single question you could ask the guy he hasn't already answered. (Not convinced? Try this, this, this, this and this on for size.)
Francona, to his credit, doesn't miss a beat when talking about the shortstop who has performed as well as anyone could have expected given that he really should have started the season -- and spent the season -- at Triple-A Pawtucket. He praises the way Green has hit the ball; he praises the way Green has played in the field.
"He's more than held his own," he said on Friday for perhaps the 1,324th time. "I don't know that, at the end of spring, you can lose two shortstops and think, 'We can replace this guy with a guy that's going to drive in 100.' That's probably not realistic. But Nick's done a pretty good job."
He's not far away from the end of those questions. That's because he's not far away from the return of Julio Lugo.
The Red Sox shortstop, who tore cartilage in his right knee in spring training, made his first rehabilitation appearance at Triple-A Pawtucket on Thursday and will stay with the PawSox for their trip to Lehigh Valley over the weekend. He'll then join the Red Sox in Cleveland on Monday and, if all goes well this weekend, be activated and get out on the field.
"Lugo is probably days rather than even weeks or months (away)," Francona said.
And don't worry about Nick Green going anywhere. He's going to stay with the team as a do-it-all utility infielder at least until Jed Lowrie comes off the disabled list.
***
One reporter asked Francona this evening about how the Red Sox-Yankees rivalry has changed for him since he first arrived in Boston.
"I was a little naive when I first got here," he said. "I tried to do my homework, but until you live through it -- the first couple of games, there was a little extra emotion. When you do something enough, it's not that you lose interest -- because I don't; I love it -- but you get used to it. The games really are still exciting because there's a lot of good players on both sides."
As a follow-up, someone asked Francona what rivalry he'd experienced that best approximated the intensity of Red Sox-Yankees.
"Birmingham-Huntsville," he deadpanned. "We always had fireworks."
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
It's getting easier being Green
(Now you know why they call it the Green Monster.)
(Yes, that joke was inevitable.)
(It's better than making an Earth Day joke, isn't it?)
It was the shortstop's first big-league home run since 2006; he hit 12 home runs in 431 at-bats with Triple-A Scranton-Wilkes-Barre last season.
It's not easy being Green
It took some nifty glovework, though, just to get to the low line drive off the bat of Joe Crede; he shorthopped it where the dirt meets the grass and came up throwing. He might have rushed his throw -- something he said this week has been a problem for him in the past -- and Kevin Youkilis couldn't make the scoop.
Youkilis, by the way, just keeps seeing everything he hits land somewhere fortuitous. This time, it was in the second row of the right-field bleachers, just beyond the Pesky Pole; a few feet in either direction, and it's either a foul ball or an out. It was Youkilis' team-best fourth home run of the season.
***
Happy birthday, Terry Francona.
