A logjam at the top of the order

It's almost a foregone conclusion that Marco Scutaro will hit ninth in the Red Sox lineup to create a "second leadoff hitter" effect. By hitting behind Adrian Beltre and his presumably low on-base percentage, Scutaro would become something of a table-setter for Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia as they, in turn, set the table for Victor Martinez and Kevin Youkilis.

(As an aside: There are those who expect Ellsbury to steal 75 or 80 bases this season. Consider, though, how often Nick Green or Alex Gonzalez got on base in front of him last season -- and compare that to how often Scutaro will get on base in front of him this season, taking away some of his opportunities.)

The best way to score runs -- short of hitting home runs, of course -- is to get guys on base, one after the other. From Scutaro straight through until Youkilis and then even David Ortiz, the Red Sox have a chance to put men on base in rapid succession and, naturally, to drive them in. Consider the CHONE projected on-base percentages for the group:

9. Scutaro, .360
1. Ellsbury, .360
2. Pedroia, .379
3. Martinez, .366
4. Youkilis, .384
5. Ortiz, .355

A natural question arises: Why wait?

Why leave Scutaro at the bottom of the batting order? Why not hit Scutaro up near the top, where his on-base percentage will be well above average even if he regresses, and get him on base as often as possible in front of Martinez and Youkilis?

Ellsbury would still hit at the top of the order. He sees himself as a leadoff hitter. Manager Terry Francona said over and over last year that the Red Sox lineup is at its best when Ellsbury is its leadoff hitter.

But Scutaro is a natural leadoff hitter himself. He hit leadoff in all 144 of his starts with the Blue Jays last season. His ability to get on base and his ability to work counts -- he saw a career-best 4.06 pitches per plate appearance last season -- makes him a better candidate for the top of the lineup than the bottom.

The natural move would be to insert Scutaro between Ellsbury and Pedroia and bump everyone down from there, creating something of a logjam of high on-base percentages at the top. It would, as Francona would say, lengthen the lineup, make it deeper and tougher and more of a challenge for opposing pitchers.

It also would be a little bit unconventional:

Ellsbury, LF
Scutaro, SS
Pedroia, 2B
Youkilis, 1B
Martinez, C
Ortiz, DH
Cameron, CF
Drew, RF
Beltre, 3B

Martinez and Youkilis could flip-flop. There's not a huge difference between them. Youkilis does have slightly better on-base and power numbers, so it makes sense in some ways to hit him ahead of Martinez.

Drew and Ortiz could flip-flop, too, though it makes sense to get the power bat of Ortiz into the middle of the lineup where it can do the most damage if and when it catches fire. Even Drew and Beltre could flip-flop, turning Drew into yet another leadoff hitter in the No. 9 spot, though it would incite of the "J.D. Drew is overrated" camp.

Drew, for what it's worth, could fit into that No. 2 spot ahead of Pedroia just as easily as Scutaro, if not more so. Drew is projected to compile an on-base percentage of .372, a number that would look awfully good in front of Pedroia, Youkilis and Martinez.

That would leave you with this:

Ellsbury, LF
Drew, RF
Pedroia, 2B
Youkilis, 1B
Martinez, C
Ortiz, DH
Cameron, CF
Beltre, 3B
Scutaro, SS

Either way, that's an unconventional lineup.

Pedroia isn't a prototypical No. 3 hitter, though it's worth pointing out he spent a week hitting cleanup two seasons ago. He OPS'ed .819 last season -- which would be above average among No. 3 hitters in the American League (.805). He's not a home run hitter, but his doubles power would be good enough with the speed on the bases in front of him.

The Red Sox have put together a lineup with six or seven hitters who could hit in the top half of the lineup. Leaving both Drew and Scutaro in the bottom third of the order doesn't seem like the best way to score runs.

Ellsbury could be Theo's first arbitration case

Theo Epstein has never had to prepare an arbitration case. A one-year contract just shy of $10 million for Jonathan Papelbon this winter ensured Epstein's record would remain unblemished.

The next challenge for Epstein, though, is looming over the horizon. The next challenge is Jacoby Ellsbury.

Arbitration and the negotiations that usually precede it only get complicated when two sides disagree wildly on the relative value of a player.

Ellsbury is precisely the type of player with whom a panel of arbitrators might have a field day. Ellsbury is an athletic and speedy outfielder with advanced fielding metrics that make him out to be a lousy defensive outfielder. Ellsbury is the best base-stealer in the major leagues but posted an on-base percentage of just .355, fifth-best on his own team. Ellsbury has speed and gap power but hit just 37 combined doubles and triples last season, fewer than Dustin Pedroia and only one more than David Ortiz.

The thing Ellsbury does best -- stealing bases -- isn't something the Red Sox traditionally value. The thing with which Ellsbury has had the most trouble -- drawing walks and getting on base -- is something the Red Sox do value.

It'll be fascinating to see how a panel of arbitrators values the contributions of Ellsbury should the case get that far next winter. Epstein had a history of avoiding arbitration, but it might be difficult for him to find a middle ground with Ellsbury and agent Scott Boras should the two groups differ widely in their evaluation of his abilities.

While assorted clubhouse attendants and contracted movers pack up the truck on Friday for its trip to Fort Myers, Epstein likely will have an eye on the arbitration case of Tampa Bay Rays center fielder B.J. Upton. The two sides in that case were a mere $300,000 apart but couldn't come to an agreement before the deadline to trade figures came and went. The hearing is scheduled for Friday, and a verdict likely will come before Monday.

(Note: The Rays won the arbitration case.)

A win for Upton might not just mean an extra $300,000 in his pocket. A win for Upton might embolden similar players in the future -- Ellsbury being the first -- to go to a hearing and see if they can convince a panel that their athleticism is worth big money.

So far, it seems, players in the Ellsbury mold have been willing to sign long-term extensions to avoid their arbitration years in exchange for financial security. Carl Crawford signed a long-term deal with the Rays. Chone Figgins signed a deal with the Los Angeles Angels. Curtis Granderson signed a deal with the Detroit Tigers. Jose Reyes signed a deal with the New York Mets. Chris Young signed a deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

All of those deals represented financial concessions in exchange for long-term security, just as the contracts of Jon Lester and Dustin Pedroia with the Red Sox did.

There's a pretty good chance, though, that Boras will rebuff any efforts by the Red Sox at a long-term extension for less money and instead take his chances with a year-by-year approach the way Papelbon has. There's little precedent in arbitration for a player whose best asset is his ability to steal bases -- and Boras undoubtedly will dismiss comparisons to Crawford or Granderson as irrelevant given their context within long-term deals.

Just for the sake of argument, though, here's a look at the deals to which the above players agreed in lieu of going through salary arbitration:

Carl Crawford ($15.25 million over four years)
Arb Year 1: $2.5 million
Arb Year 2: $4 million
Arb Year 3: $5.25 million

Chone Figgins ($10.5 million over three years)
Super-Two: $2.25 million*
Arb Year 1: $3.5 million
Arb Year 2: $4.75 million
Arb Year 3: $5.775 million**
* Figgins had enough service time as a Super Two to qualify for four arbitration seasons rather than three
** Figgins signed a one-year deal to avoid a hearing

Curtis Granderson ($30.25 million over five years)
Arb Year 1: $3.5 million
Arb Year 2: $5.5 million
Arb Year 3: $8.25 million

Jose Reyes ($23.25 million over four years)
Arb Year 1: $2.5 million
Arb Year 2: $4 million
Arb Year 3: $5.75 million

Chris Young ($28 million over five years)
Arb Year 1: $3.25 million
Arb Year 2: $5 million
Arb Year 3: $7 million

(One side note: It's fascinating that Jonathan Papelbon earned $6.25 million in his first arbitration while each of the above players earned $3.5 million or less. Saves might be overvalued in the arbitration process, but stolen bases appear not to be.)

If Figgins, Granderson and Young all earned better than $3 million in their fourth major-league season -- a player doesn't qualify for arbitration unless he has at least three seasons of service time, with the exception of Super Twos -- you can bet Boras and Ellsbury will ask for at least $3 million in arbitration.

If Upton wins his case on Friday, you can bet Boras and Ellsbury will ask for close to $4 million in arbitration. Just look at the numbers for the two players last season:

Ellsbury: .301/.355/.415 with 70 stolen bases
Upton: .241/.313/.373 with 42 stolen bases

On top of that, Upton struck out 152 times while Ellsbury struck out 74 times. It's not difficult to make a case that Ellsbury should be paid more than Upton -- especially to an arbitrator who might or might not be well-versed in sabermetrics or advanced defensive statistics.

Should the panel of arbitrators rule in favor of Upton this weekend, Epstein might have to start bracing for the toughest arbitration fight of his career.

Postscript: They didn't. But an initial arbitration figure of $3.5 million is going to be far from out of line for Ellsbury.

Running the bases with the Red Sox

The play looked fairly innocuous at the time.

Mike Lowell -- the same Mike Lowell who ran last season as if he was dragging a parachute behind him -- surprised everyone by breaking for third in the second inning of a mid-May game against the Toronto Blue Jays. He'd taken a healthy lead off second base and didn't draw a glance from the pitcher, so he decided on his own to take a shot at third.

Lowell surprised everyone, that is, except J.D. Drew, the runner on first base who broke for second base just as Lowell broke for third. When Jeff Bailey singled to shallow left field, Lowell scored -- and Drew coasted into third base. When George Kottaras followed with a fly ball to left field, Drew scored the second run of the inning.

Had Drew not been paying attention to Lowell, he only would have made it to second base on Bailey's single. He then might or might not have made it to third base on Kottaras' fly ball -- and he certainly would have been stranded when Jacoby Ellsbury lined to first base to end the inning.

You guessed it: The Red Sox ended up winning that game, 2-1.

"We scored a run and J.D. was able to get to third on a ball that probably neither of us (otherwise) advances two bases on," Lowell said after the game. "Georgie got a sac fly, and it ended up being something that worked out for us."

Running the bases doesn't have as much impact as hitting or pitching or even playing defense. Running the bases, though, can turn the tide of a handful of games over the course of a season and even can be the difference between a win and a loss.

With that in mind, here's a look at how the Red Sox have fared -- and might fare next season -- in terms of their baserunning.

(Both BillJamesOnline.net and Baseball-Reference.com compile baserunning statistics. The below statistics are from the latter.)

Going from first to third on a single
American League average: 27.0 percent
2008 lineup: 22.2 percent
2009 lineup: 24.7 percent
2010 lineup*: 24.7 percent

The best: Kevin Youkilis (12 for 32, 37.5 percent)
The worst: David Ortiz (2 for 27, 7.4 percent)

New acquisitions Adrian Beltre (50 percent) and Mike Cameron (41.9 percent) both went from corner to corner last season at an above-average clip. Marco Scutaro, on the other hand, had a brutal year in that area: He got to third base just four times in 38 opportunities, or 10.5 percent.

Scoring from second on a single
American League average: 58.1 percent
2008 lineup: 58.0 percent
2009 lineup: 55.1 percent
2010 lineup*: 54.0 percent

The best: Jason Bay (11 for 12, 91.7 percent)
The worst: Ortiz (2 for 16, 12.5 percent)

Seeing as how picking on Jacoby Ellsbury has become the unofficial theme of the Red Sox offseason, it's interesting to note that the speedster scored from second just 46.2 percent of the time a season ago, third-worst among Red Sox regulars. Ortiz and Jason Varitek were the only other regulars to fail to score from second base on at least 50 percent of their opportunities last season.

Much like his fielding numbers, Ellsbury's baserunning numbers -- his stolen bases aside, of course -- seem to indicate he's not taking full advantage of his speed.

Scoring from first on a double
American League average: 37.9 percent
2008 lineup: 27.5 percent
2009 lineup: 27.2 percent
2010 lineup*: 35.3 percent

The best: Nick Green (5 for 7, 71.4 percent)
The worst: Ortiz/Varitek (0 for 7/0 for 3, 0 percent)

It shouldn't be that surprising that Ortiz is at the bottom of most of these lists. He is, after all, Big Papi. But as the Red Sox try to figure out how often to play him next season, his inability to do anything on the basepaths -- the way he clogs the bases, if you will -- might be a tiny factor in their decision.

Ellsbury? He scored from first on a double just twice on nine opportunities last season, again the third-lowest rate among Red Sox regulars. This time, though, some context is in order: If Ellsbury singles to lead off the game and Dustin Pedroia lofts a high fly ball off the Green Monster -- Pedroia hit 10 first-inning doubles last season -- Ellsbury is going to have to hold at second base until he knows the fly ball won't be caught.

There's little excuse for Ellsbury not being able to score from second on a single more often than he does, but failing to score from first on a double seems to be a function of the ballpark in which he plays.

* based on 2009 numbers

Beat the drum and hold the phone

The Providence Journal's Joe McDonald reported Tuesday what many have expected: Mike Cameron will displace Jacoby Ellsbury in center field for the Red Sox, shifting the speedy leadoff hitter to left field on a regular basis.

“He was worried that it was a demotion, which it is not,” Red Sox manager Terry Francona told McDonald. “I kind of (assured) him of that. I just think we’re tying to put guys where we think they can make the biggest impression. Cam was great, for a guy who is 37 years old and played center field his whole life. He said, ‘Hey, I’ll play anywhere,' so it was just a decision based on what’s best for our team.”

Cameron might not make the biggest impression in center field, though. Ellsbury might -- and here are three reasons why:

1. Defensive metrics can be unreliable in small samples
As has been thoroughly documented, Ellsbury had a miserable season both in Ultimate Zone Rating (minus-18.6) and in Fielding Bible plus-minus (minus-14).

A year ago, however, both of the same advanced metrics had Ellsbury as an above-average center fielder (plus-3.0 and plus-8, respectively).

Analysts have made clear over and over again that it takes more than one season to assess adequately defensive performance via the new metrics. All we know about Ellsbury so far is that we just don't know.

2. Ellsbury still has a learning curve
Unlike Cameron, who will turn 37 years old this week, Ellsbury has room to improve his breaks on the ball and his routes in the outfield. The 26-year-old has all the speed and athleticism to be an elite center fielder. He just hasn't put it together yet. You could easily make an argument that another season in center field would be just like another year of at-bats -- in other words, just what he needs to keep making improvements.

3. Cameron and the triangle might be trouble
The defensive metrics don't love Cameron unconditionally. Check out the two most recent ballparks in which Cameron has played center field -- images from HitTrackerOnline.com:

Petco Park in San Diego
2006: minus-0.6
2007: minus-10.4

Right-center field: 411 feet
Center field: 396 feet
Left-center field: 402 feet

Miller Park in Milwaukee
2008: plus-15.6
2009: plus-10.3

Right-center field: 374 feet
Center field: 400 feet
Left-center field: 371 feet

Fenway Park in Boston

Right-center field: 383 feet
Center field: 420 feet
Left-center field: 379 feet

At no point does the fence at Miller Park get any farther than 400 feet from home plate. Petco Park's power alleys, on the other hand, have more in common with the triangle in center field at Fenway Park than aspect of Miller Park.

(It's not easy to see relative distance on the diagrams unless you look at where the concentric circles -- 300 feet out and 350 feet out -- are superimposed against the outfield fences.)

If the Fielding Bible's plus-minus numbers are to be believed -- and here we have to pull out the grain-of-salt warning again -- Ellsbury was far better on deep fly balls than on shallow fly balls. He made some of his most memorable catches either up against the fence or back in the triangle in deep center field.

Either way, by replacing Jason Bay with Cameron, the Red Sox have made a dramatic upgrade to their defense in the outfield. Ellsbury, though, might still be a better fit for the triangle in center field than Cameron is.

Jacoby Ellsbury really is expendable

"You can never have enough center fielders."
-- Theo Epstein

The Red Sox general manager, about to enter his eighth season, has made it a focus to accumulate as much up-the-middle talent as he can. His captain has been his catcher (Jason Varitek). His first major trade was for a shortstop (Orlando Cabrera). His first impact rookie was a second baseman (Dustin Pedroia). His first out-of-nowhere World Series hero was a center fielder (Jacoby Ellsbury). His first major trade -- even though it was made in his absence -- was built around a shortstop (Hanley Ramirez).

And of the top 15 position-player prospects in the organization, according to SoxProspects.com, 12 play either catcher, shortstop, second base or center field. Five of the team's top 14 prospects, in fact, look like they'll have the ability to play center field in the major leagues: Reymond Fuentes, Ryan Kalish, Che-Hsuan Lin, Josh Reddick, and Ryan Westmoreland.

(Reddick is the most borderline. His future likely is in right field or left field. SoxProspects, though, specifically points out that "Reddick has the range to be a full time major league center fielder.")

That's what makes today's note from the Chicago Tribune's Phil Rogers so interesting:
Worth watching: If the Red Sox wind up with Matt Holliday or Jason Bay, the Cubs immediately would make a major effort to land Jacoby Ellsbury to fill their center field/leadoff hole, according to sources. That scenario helps explain why the Cubs have been so patient in studying their options. The best way to do such a trade might be for GM Jim Hendry to facilitate a three-team deal that sends first baseman Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres to the Red Sox by packaging a group of prospects, possibly including one or two of their top ones, such as third baseman Josh Vitters, shortstop Hak-Ju Lee and pitchers Andrew Cashner and Jay Jackson.

Ellsbury, of course, already has been associated with the Gonzalez trade rumors this winter. Proponents of including Ellsbury in a package generally have focused on his subpar defensive numbers, according to advanced metrics, and his relatively low on-base percentage at the top of the Red Sox lineup.

There's an even better reason for the Red Sox to look hard at moving Ellsbury if it means a big upgrade elsewhere -- especially if that upgrade is Gonzalez.

Epstein has made Ellsbury expendable.

The reason Ellsbury is so valuable is because he can produce so much while earning so little. He won't even be eligible for salary arbitration until next season, and his team then still will have three years' worth of control of his rights until he hits the open market. Even those who believe Ellsbury has become overrated can't deny that his production far outweighs his salary -- and will do so at least until he hits his second year of arbitration.

That's reason enough to hang onto him unless there's a player behind him ready to fill in with similar production at a similarly low salary -- and, thus, similar bang for the buck. The Red Sox have a half-dozen players in their minor-league system with the potential to do just that.

No, none of them are ready yet. Reddick is closest by virtue of his major-league experience last season. Kalish likely will make his major-league debut at some point next season. But it's not unreasonable to imagine the Red Sox opening the 2010 season with Mike Cameron in center field and Kalish and Reddick both waiting in the wings. Fuentes, Lin and Westmoreland all are 21 years old or younger, but all three could come along within the next three or four years.

There's no reason to hoard so much young talent it doesn't fit on the major-league roster. Kalish and Reddick won't do the Red Sox any good if they're tearing apart the International League.

(This, of course, assumes they'll tear apart the International League. You can't ever make that assumption with individual prospects. The odds that both Kalish and Reddick flop, though, seem pretty minimal.)

The Red Sox can get more in a trade for Ellsbury than they can for Kalish or Reddick simply because Ellsbury already has demonstrated he can hold his own at the major-league level. Trading Ellsbury, however, would have left the Red Sox with a void in center field if not for the signing of Cameron -- a bridge, if you will, to the prospects who seem to be on the way.

If the Cubs are willing to offer the Red Sox enough in the way of prospects for Ellsbury that the Padres don't insist on Clay Buchholz in a trade for Gonzalez, that's a move the Red Sox should make without hesitating.

Ellsbury and shallow fly balls

(Subtitle: Why you can't just judge the quality of a defensive player by the number of highlights that show up on SportsCenter.)

Much has been made lately about Jacoby Ellsbury's pitiful defensive numbers as measured by stat geeks who eat Ramen noodles for every meal and live in their mother's basements and who don't even watch baseball at all.

OK, then: Let's watch some baseball.

The biggest issue with Ellsbury, statistically, is his inability to come in on a shallow fly ball.

Take a minute and check out the center fielder's highlight reel from last season. He made catch after catch in the left- and right-center-field gaps. He went over the fence to pull back a home run at Camden Yards.

But he almost never made a big play coming in on a shallow fly ball. Even his game-saving catch at Tampa Bay wasn't on a fly ball that was particularly deep: Thanks to the logo in the middle of the Tropicana Field outfield, it's easy to see where the ball landed. It was a terrific play -- but it was on a medium-deep fly ball.

BillJamesOnline.net -- the same Bill James, incidentally, who works for the Red Sox -- borrows from the Fielding Bible, a creation of a protege of James that breaks down defense almost on a microscopic basis. Every ground ball and every fly ball is recorded and measured, and the range of every infielder and outfielder thus can be evaluated objectively. The Fielding Bible's plus-minus scale gives a player a plus-1 for making a play outside the average fielder's range and a minus-1 for failing to make a play inside the average fielder's range.

Here's how Ellsbury's season breaks down to minus-14 overall:
* Deep fly balls: minus-5
* Medium fly balls: plus-3
* Shallow fly balls: minus-12

Even in 2008, when his plus-8 in center field ranked him among the top 10 center fielders in the game, the same pattern held true:
* Deep fly balls: plus-3
* Medium fly balls: plus-7
* Shallow fly balls: minus-2

Ellsbury is really, really good at going side-to-side, ranging into the gaps to make catches. He's OK at going back on the ball -- and, as the highlights show, he can occasionally be spectacular. When he's going side-to-side and back on the ball, he gets himself on SportsCenter.

But he's just not great at coming in on the ball.

Let's compare Ellsbury to another center fielder picked completely at random -- or, you know, not. Let's compare him to Yankees center fielder Brett Gardner, an outfielder who will be replaced by Curtis Granderson next season because he wasn't good enough to play every day.

Well, actually, Gardner was really good in the field:
* Deep fly balls: plus-6
* Medium fly balls: plus-1
* Shallow fly balls: plus-4

Want to watch some baseball?

Compare this play by Gardner to this play by Ellsbury.

(Consumer warning: The second of those plays is the go-ahead single Vladmir Guerrero hit in the top of the ninth in Game 3. Watch it at your own discretion.)

Let's look at those two plays in more detail. Here's a screen capture from the moment the camera switches from home plate to center field on the Gardner catch. If you consider that center field at Yankee Stadium is 408 feet out, it's probably fair to estimate that Gardner is 360 or 370 feet from home plate:


Gardner tracks the ball and makes a diving catch.

OK, now Ellsbury. Center field at Fenway Park right behind Ellsbury is right around 385 or 390 feet, so it's safe to assume he's 360 or 370 feet from home plate when the camera gets to him:

You know the story. Ellsbury never gets close to the ball -- not only does he not dive for it, but he doesn't even have to pull up to avoid diving for it -- and it falls in for a two-run single that gives the Angels the lead.

Thing is, that's not a one-time deal for Gardner. There's this play and this play and this play -- all examples of his ability to come in on shallow fly balls. He even, in a nice little twist of irony, robbed Ellsbury at Yankee Stadium in September.

Yes, Gardner plays more shallow than Ellsbury. That's made fairly obvious by all of the above highlights. But Gardner plays shallow because he still can range into the gap or go up and get a ball that's going over his head.

Many fans can't believe that the defensive ability of Jacoby Ellsbury has been called into question. Even some writers would rather question the work of people who break down hours and hours of tape than question the defensive ability of someone they so often see show up on Web Gems.

But if you can't measure hitters only by the fact that they hit a bunch of home runs -- no one was pronouncing Jason Varitek an MVP candidate last April and May, for example -- you can't measure fielders by their most spectacular plays.

Ellsbury either doesn't play as shallow as he should or isn't as rangy as many people think he is. He'll almost certainly get better -- he has all the tools -- but baseball fans should know better than to dismiss defensive statistics based on a handful of spectacular plays.

Let's revisit Adrian Gonzalez in July

Four reasons why an Adrian Gonzalez trade will make more sense on July 31 than it does now:

1. San Diego's motivation
If Jed Hoyer trades Adrian Gonzalez right now, he'll be announcing to his fan base that he's given up on the 2010 season. Done. Finished. Over and out. He might bring back a nice haul of ready-for-prime-time talent -- especially if he lands Buchholz and Ellsbury -- but the only reason Padres fans have even heard of Buchholz and Ellsbury is because they're inundated with Red Sox coverage on national networks and Web sites.

(Quick: Name San Diego's top prospect, the first baseman who would replace Gonzalez if Hoyer traded him. Too tough? OK. Quick: Name a player on San Diego's roster.)

A trade of Gonzalez would tell the casual fan of the Padres to head off to the beach and not bother reporting back until 2011 or 2012. If Hoyer holds onto Gonzalez until July, though, he at least gives his fans reason to care while he kicks off the rebuilding process -- and it's unlikely the value for Gonzalez is going to decrease at all between now and July 31.

2. Jacoby Ellsbury's defense
Dreamboat certainly has all the tools -- except for an arm, but that's forgiveable -- to be an elite defensive center fielder. Advanced defensive metrics, though, suggest he had a miserable season in center field last season. FanGraphs' Ultimate Zone Rating statistic ranked him last among center fielders with a minus-18.6.

Here's the issue: Ultimate Zone Rating, especially when it comes to outfielders, is subject to random fluctuations and can't be quoted as gospel the way batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage can. Consider the evaluation of Torii Hunter in center field over the past few seasons:
* 2009: minus-2.1
* 2008: minus-13.0
* 2007: minus-6.5
* 2006: minus-11.6
* 2005: 4.5
* 2004: minus-0.2
* 2003: 13.1

Before the Red Sox conclude that Ellsbury can't play center field on a permanent basis, it might be worth using the first three months of the season to see if his numbers drift back to where his physical skill set suggests they should be.

3. Clay Buchholz's ascension
In case you missed it, the skinny righty looked like one of the best pitchers in baseball not too long after the Red Sox called him up for good. From Aug. 8 until Sept. 24, Buchholz went 6-2 (if you care about that sort of thing) with a 2.37 ERA and an opponents' OPS of under .600. He struck out 44 hitters in 64 2/3 innings and walked just 22. Against Toronto on Aug. 29, he went 8 1/3 innings and allowed just one run, striking out nine Blue Jays in the process.

"We’ve always been a champion of Clay and his potential," Theo Epstein said after the Cameron and Lackey press conferences. “He started to show it last year, and there was a six-start stretch in August and September where he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. We think that’s what he is. We think that’s what he can become. You’re not talking about a young, unproven guy anymore. We still think he’s a top-of-the-rotation guy. He’s under control for five years to this ball club. He’s got the makeup to succeed in Boston. He’s got the stuff to succeed in the American League East."

The Yankees have refused to trade Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes. The Rays aren't going to trade David Price. The Braves won't even talk about Tommy Hanson.

If Buchholz can show next spring that his six-week run of starts last season wasn't a fluke, the Red Sox aren't going to trade him, either. That's not the type of arm you let get away -- even for a bat like Adrian Gonzalez.

4. Ryan Kalish's progress -- and Josh Reddick's, too
Should the Red Sox trade away Ellsbury, someone will have to play left field -- and the hope here is that that someone isn't Xavier Nady.

Neither Kalish nor Reddick are ready to start the 2010 season as an everyday player with the Red Sox. Reddick has all of 62 career plate appearances in the major leagues and not much more than that at Triple-A. Kalish hasn't even yet touched Triple-A.

But Kalish and Reddick both are viewed as cornerstone-type outfielders who made it easier for Epstein to bid farewell to Jason Bay. They might not be ready by Opening Day, but both ought to be ready by the time Mike Cameron's two-year contract expires.

One or both also might be ready for a promotion in July -- and if Ellsbury is dealt away, either Kalish or Reddick could step in for him. Epstein won't know if either of the two outfielders is ready, though, until he's had a chance to see how they perform in April and May.

Jacoby Ellsbury and Johnny Damon

With the introduction of Mike Cameron as the Red Sox's newest speedy outfielder, some have begun to speculate that the Red Sox might include Jacoby Ellsbury in a trade for San Diego's Adrian Gonzalez.

Before the Red Sox trade Ellsbury away, though, it's worth thinking about the comparison so widely made when the center fielder was drafted. Ellsbury might not be OBP'ing .380 the way Johnny Damon has so often in his career -- his on-base percentage of .355 last season ranked him fifth among Red Sox regulars, well behind Dustin Pedroia's .371 -- but he's certainly on the right track.

Consider this: At the end of the 1997 season, when Damon had two-plus years of major-league experience and close to 1,300 career plate appearances, the future on-base machine had a career line that looked like this:
* .274 batting average
* .325 on-base percentage
* .387 slugging percentage
* OPS+ of 83
(Note: 100 is defined as average.)

His walk rate was 6.6 percent. His strikeout rate was 12 percent.

He'd hit a total of 17 home runs.

Two years later, in 1999, Damon took an enormous step forward. His walk rate skyrocketed to 10.2 percent, and his strikeout rate dropped to 7.6 percent. (He struck out just 50 times in more than 650 plate appearances.) His on-base percentage jumped to .379. He hit 14 home runs.

Consider, now, Ellsbury's first two-plus seasons -- a career that consists of a little more than 1,400 plate appearances:
* .297 batting average
* .350 on-base percentage
* .414 slugging percentage
* OPS+ of 96

His walk rate so far is 6.9 percent. His strikeout rate is 11.8 percent.

He's hit a total of 20 home runs.

He's still just 26 years old.

For what it's worth, Bill James projects Ellsbury to compile a line of .302/.360/.420 next season with a walk rate of 7.6 percent and a strikeout rate of 11.6 percent. But if Ellsbury can take another step forward in his patience and his plate discipline -- something he seemed already to be doing in the second half of last season -- he might be in line for a Damon-esque leap.

If the Red Sox can land Gonzalez from San Diego for a package centered around Ellsbury, well, they'd be crazy not to consider it. Gonzalez is an elite hitter, a franchise-changing bat.

But those who are suggesting that the Red Sox cash Ellsbury in while his value is at its highest, well, his value might still have some climbing to do.

Cameron-Ellsbury alignment still TBD

Even during the regular season, Terry Francona is loath to divulge his starting lineup for a game until he absolutely has to.

The Red Sox manager wasn't about to divulge his starting lineup for Opening Day in December.

New acquisition Mike Cameron is a Gold Glove-caliber center fielder whose reputation only is underscored by advanced fielding metrics. Jacoby Ellsbury, on the other hand, is a rising star who appears to have all the physical tools to play a Cameron-esque center field. Defensive metrics didn't hold him in high esteem last season, but it's not hard to imagine a leap forward as his reads and routes improve.

Francona, general manager Theo Epstein and bench coach DeMarlo Hale, who doubles as the Red Sox outfield instructor, will have a decision to make about who plays center field.

That decision, Francona said, hasn't yet been made.

"What we need to do -- and I've already talked to Cam about this -- is, in the next week or so, I need to sit down with Theo, Mike, Jacoby and probably DeMarlo and figure out what's in our best interest," Francona said. "I need to talk to everybody first. It's been kind of a whirlwind week for everybody. We'll sit down and try to put the right pieces in the right place. I have some ideas on it, but I want to talk to everybody first."

Cameron hasn't played a corner outfield spot since he played right field with the Mets in 2005, giving way to Carlos Beltran. Cameron has played all of 9 2/3 innings in left field in his major-league career and hasn't made an appeared out there since 2000.

Ellsbury, on the other hand, made 36 starts and played almost 350 innings in left field as part of a time-sharing arrangement with Coco Crisp two seasons ago.

But if the Red Sox see Ellsbury as their center fielder of the future -- something that's a likelihood but no lock, especially considering what the fielding metrics say and who his agent is -- they might be better off playing Ellsbury full-time in center field to accelerate his learning curve.

Cameron, for his part, expressed no reluctance about playing left field for the Red Sox. He did not, however, shy away from his confidence in his ability to play center.

"I think I've played Gold Glove-caliber center field my whole career," he said. "I just don't get a chance to be recognized for it. But the numbers speak for themselves. I still feel that I'm able to move around pretty good, and I play probably one of the better center fields this year than I've played in a long time."

Ellsbury has to pick his spots in playoffs

There's no question Jacoby Ellsbury is among the elite base-stealers baseball. His 70 stolen bases led all the major leagues by a healthy margin, and his success rate of 85 percent shows he's generally not taking unncessary chances.

But that doesn't mean he doesn't still have work to do.

Take last Friday as an example.

Ellsbury doubled to right field to open the bottom of the first on Friday, and it took just one pitch to Dustin Pedroia for him to steal third -- and to come around and score when the throw from Kelly Shoppach sailed into left field. Five pitches into the game, the Red Sox led by a 1-0 score.

Ellsbury had another chance in the third inning. He walked with runners on first and second and no one out, loading the bases for the heart of the Red Sox order. Dustin Pedroia then hit a sacrifice fly and Victor Martinez singled to right field, scoring two runs and bringing Kevin Youkilis to the plate with runners on first and second and just one out.

The Indians knew he was there.

The night before, in fact, he'd stolen second base on the first pitch thrown to Pedroia in the first inning. When he singled to lead off the sixth inning, he took off again -- and Lou Marson threw him out.

This time, second baseman Jamey Carroll was essentially holding Ellsbury on second base. The Indians again were just waiting for him to go -- and he went.

But he didn't get quite the jump he'd gotten in the first inning, and Shoppach made a terrific throw to cut him down.

All of a sudden, the Red Sox had gone from runners on first and second with one out to a runner on first with two outs.

Youkilis walked and Jason Bay followed with a run-scoring double, but Mike Lowell's fly ball to center field ended the inning rather than becoming just a sacrifice fly in the middle of an onslaught of scoring.

"He's done a good job on the bases -- and last night was one of the exceptions," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said the next day. "We talked to him about it. He got their attention. It was first and second, and we've got the middle of the order up and they're in a little bit of trouble. He got their attention, and that's OK. We've got Youk hitting with a lefty that looks like he's got a chance to get into trouble -- and he forced the issue and was out.

"We just tell him, and he goes, 'Yeah, I agree.'"

Ellsbury will have a chance to do to the Angels what Chone Figgins, Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter and others will do to the Red Sox.

But he still has to pick his spots. If he gets too predictable -- and he was too predictable against the Indians, resulting in two outs on the basepaths in two games -- he's going to do more to hurt the Red Sox cause than to help it.

Red Sox defense still an issue in some ways

It's hard to pinpoint a significant weakness on this Red Sox team. The starting pitching is tremendous. The bullpen is tremendous. The lineup is deep -- and tremendous, particularly since the acquisition of Victor Martinez.

The team's biggest weakness, in a lot of ways, might be its defense. That's not to say that the defense is bad, per se, but back in mid-May, the Red Sox certainly weren't giving their pitchers much in the way of help. (The link will take you to a snapshot in mid-May of where the Red Sox stood on the Ultimate Zone Rating and Fielding Bible Plus-Minus leaderboards.)

As the season winds to a close, though, it might be a good idea to check back and see how the Red Sox fared in some of the advanced statistical measures. (We'll use UZR/150 -- averaging the numbers across 150 games -- rather than straight UZR because rate stats, as we've discussed, give a better sense than counting stats. Plus-minus is a counting stat.)

First base
UZR/150
1. Travis Ishikawa, plus-13.5
2. Casey Kotchman, 7.5
3. Kevin Youkilis, 7.1
Plus-minus
1. Albert Pujols, plus-15
t-2. Kevin Youkilis, plus-14

(In the ongoing "Kevin Youkilis ought to be the MVP runner-up behind Joe Mauer" debate, his ability to deliver terrific defense at first base and adequate defense at third base ought to be a big, big pactor.)

Second base
UZR/150
1. Ben Zobrist, plus-24.1
2. Dustin Pedroia, 9.1
(Yes, the gap is that wide.)
Plus-minus
1. Ian Kinsler and Ben Zobrist, plus-23
t-5. Dustin Pedroia, plus-12

(Pedroia might not buy into advanced defensive statistics, but they sure do reflect well upon him.)

Third base
UZR/150
1. Ryan Zimmerman, plus-16
29. Mike Lowell, minus-10.2
Plus-minus
1. Chone Figgins, plus-41
35. Mike Lowell, minus-23

(Were you expecting anything else?)

Shortstop
UZR/150
1. Jack Wilson, plus-15.2
6. Alex Gonzalez, plus-7.0
10. Nick Green, plus-5.3
Plus-minus
1. Jack Wilson, plus-32
19. Nick Green, plus-1
27. Alex Gonzalez, minus-5

(There's a discrepancy between the two interpretations of Gonzalez's defense. There's no such discrepancy below.)

Left field
UZR/150
1. Juan Rivera, plus-14.2
12. Jason Bay, minus-8.0
Plus-minus
1. Carl Crawford, plus-32
26. Jason Bay, minus-9

(That's still not good, but it's certainly better than you saw from Bay earlier in the year. The Fielding Bible has him at minus-14 on deep fly balls but plus-6 on medium-range fly balls.)

Center field
UZR/150
1. Franklin Gutierrez, plus-19.2
26. Jacoby Ellsbury, minus-12.6
Plus-minus
1. Franklin Gutierrez, plus-42
29. Jacoby Ellsbury, minus-8

(The Fielding Bible has Ellsbury at minus-12 on shallow fly balls -- which actually should seem about right to anyone who's seen the way he reads shallow fly balls off the bat.)

Right field
UZR/150
1. Ryan Sweeney, plus-20.5
8. J.D. Drew, plus-9.7
Plus-minus
1. Ichiro Suzuki, plus-22
t-10. J.D. Drew, plus-11

(As much as Drew doesn't get credit for his contributions at the plate, he really doesn't get credit for his contributions in one of the biggest right fields in baseball.)

As a team, for the season, the Red Sox rank 17th in the major leagues with an UZR/150 of minus-2.3.

It's not as abysmal as it was earlier in the season. Nick Green saw improvement as the year progressed, and replacing Julio Lugo with Alex Gonzalez certainly helped. Playing Mike Lowell at third base less has helped as well -- in infield with Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia and Casey Kotchman is actually a pretty impressive defensive infield.

But while J.D. Drew continues to be an above-average defensive outfielder, both Jason Bay and Jacoby Ellsbury continue to receive low marks. Fortunately for the Red Sox, neither this park nor this park feature the type of cavernous left-center field gap that could cause problems.

Maybe Jacoby Ellsbury is just lying

Jacoby Ellsbury all season has maintained he's an aggressive hitter who looks for strikes, the type of hitter opposing pitchers aren't going to walk because they don't want to put him on base. He's a contact hitter with a high contact rate. He's not going to turn himself into the type of leadoff hitter J.D. Drew was, the type of leadoff hitter Dustin Pedroia was trying to hard to be.

He's going to see the ball and hit it. That's about the extent of it.

The trouble is, well, it's not true.

For one thing, he's not swinging at the first pitch the way he did last year and the year before. He's a look at how his putting-the-first-pitch-in-play numbers trend:

2007: 126 plate appearances, 20 first pitches (15.9 percent)
2008: 607 plate appearances, 79 first pitches (13 percent)
2009: 616 plate appearances, 46 first pitches (7.5 percent)

When Ellsbury swings, he makes contact around 88 percent of the time. If he's not putting the first pitch in play, it's because he's not swinging at it.

He's also working deeper into counts than he has ever before. Hitting coach Dave Magadan credited this with to a bolstered confidence when he's hitting with two strikes -- rather than swinging at the first pitch he can reach, he's waiting for his pitch early in the count even if it means he winds up down 0-2 thanks to a couple of breaking balls on the outside corner.

Here's how his pitches-per-plate appearance numbers have trended:
2007: 3.67
2008: 3.58
2009: 3.77

Within this season, even, he's making progress:
April: 3.69
May: 3.73
June: 3.98
July: 3.66*
August: 3.74
September (thus far): 3.92
*Ellsbury went back to the leadoff spot in the order after the All-Star break. You can decide if the dip is coincidental or not.

When you consider that the average major-league hitter sees 3.83 pitches per plate appearance, it's clear Ellsbury has made a specific adjustment to take more pitches and work deeper into counts.

Oh, and he's having more success this year with two strikes on him, too:
2007: .692 OPS
2008: .519 OPS
2009: .665 OPS*
*He hit a home run on an 0-2 pitch on Thursday night.

Ask him about it, though, and he'll insist he's maintaining the same approach, maintaining the same aggressiveness early in the count if he gets a pitch to hit.

If opposing pitchers know he's more comfortable taking a first-pitch strike, he'll see more first-pitch strikes -- and he'll go down 0-1 and 0-2 more often. For all the improvement he's made hitting with two strikes, he's still far more productive when the count is in his favor.

It's almost as if...

Nah. Couldn't be.

Are you making more of a conscious effort to take more first pitches, or does it just seem that way?
"No, not really. I've always taken a lot of first pitches. I haven't consciously done anything different."

The pitches per at-bat for you have been trending up this year. I wasn't sure if you were working deeper to counts or if it's just the way you're being pitched.
"It's just the way I'm being pitched. If they're throwing me strikes over the middle, I'll swing at them. If they're throwing them off the plate, hopefully, I'll take them. I'm an aggressive hitter as it is. But if they're throwing them in the zone, I'll be swinging, that's for sure."

Magadan said it takes some time to hit with two strikes and to be comfortable getting deep into the count without worrying about being down 0-2, especially in the major leagues. How do you develop that or learn that?
"A lot of it is being comfortable with your approach, having good eye-hand coordination, being able to adjust and hit the breaking ball, hit the changeup, hit the fastball. It just gives you confidence to hit with two strikes. It's never really been an issue for me. I haven't really worried about it too much.

"As a leadoff hitter and a guy who can steal, they're going to pitch the ball over the plate. They're going to make you put the ball in play. That's what they do against me. Everyone talks about your walks, but they're going to throw me strikes. If I take strikes, I go down looking. My approach is to be aggressive and put the ball in play and see what happens."

When you came up to the major leagues, were you already comfortable going down 0-2, or was there a point when you got more comfortable hitting in pitchers' counts and still being productive?
"Any hitter wants to be in hitters' counts. I don't want to be 0-2. If it happens, I feel comfortable putting the ball in play and hitting a ground ball and trying to beat something out or making them make a play, making them make a good play on me. I guess that's how I've always hit. I've always felt fairly comfortable hitting with two strikes."

Ellsbury for Reyes? Just say no

Jayson Stark this week broke down the Mets' candidates for trade if they decide to blow it up and start over again. Carlos Beltran, Francisco Rodriguez, Johan Santana and David Wright probably aren't options. Jose Reyes probably is:

That brings us to Reyes, just by process of elimination. But he isn't quite the healthiest man on the planet, either. And even if he was, ask yourself this: Could the Mets really convince themselves to trade a player like this -- who is this talented, who's still only 26 years old and who is signed at highly affordable dollars for the next two years?
Well, three of the executives we polled said the Mets have to suck it up and do exactly that. But it was far from unanimous.
"They'd better think twice before they move that guy," said an official of one team. "Guys like that are hard to find. The reputation he's got now is, he doesn't want to play. But look at the games played before this year -- 159 last year, 160 in '07, 153 in '06, 161 in '05. So this guy plays. Sorry. No way I'm trading him if I'm them. Absolutely no way."

Reyes, as you might know, is a shortstop. The Red Sox, as you might know, haven't had a shortstop upon whom they could rely since, oh, 2003.

On the Sons of Sam Horn message board, in fact, a discussion has raged for two weeks about whether the Red Sox ought to explore trading dynamic center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury to the Mets for Reyes. Omar Minaya very well might give Theo Epstein a call sometime in October or November and see if he's interested in such a swap.

A month or two ago, such a deal might have made sense.

But not now.

Ellsbury has looked as good in the last month as he has in any month in his Red Sox tenure. His on-base and slugging numbers weren't as high in August as they were in June or July, but he drew a season-high nine walks and showed a willingness to work counts he's taken two years to figure out. He's actually hitting .297 this season after the count has started at 0-1, and he's hitting .330 after the count has gotten to 0-2.

Think about that: When he stands and takes two strikes and starts his at-bat from there, he's hitting .330. Even when the 0-2 pitch is the action pitch, he's hitting .268.

For the sake of comparison, Dustin Pedroia takes the first pitch more than any other Red Sox pitcher and is hitting .251 if the count starts at 0-1 and .171 if the count starts at 0-2.

Add that to his recent defensive heroics -- his UZR numbers notwithstanding -- and it seems Ellsbury is developing into the type of player the Red Sox imagined he would. There's always a danger in small sample size, but when the thing you're measuring is plate approach and not production, that danger shouldn't be as great.

The only knock on Ellsbury is his on-base percentage: He doesn't get on base the way a leadoff hitter should. The average American League leadoff hitter has an on-base percentage of .354, and Ellsbury right now is at .345.

Reyes, though, isn't an improvement in that area. The 26-year-old shortstop -- he's just two months older than Ellsbury despite his lengthy major-league career -- has never finished a season with an on-base percentage better than .358.

You could argue that Reyes, at his age, has just as much room to improve as Ellsbury. But the arc for a player who already has more than 3,500 plate appearances isn't going to be nearly as signficiant as it is for a player still a few plate appearances shy of 1,200.

Both players are capable of stealing 50 or 60 bases a year. Neither are sensational defenders: Ellsbury might yet be better than his UZR number suggests, but that only would draw him even with Reyes as a slightly below-average defensive player.

But any potential deal comes down to two key points:
1. Cost.
2. Robbing Peter to pay Paul.

Ellsbury will earn the minimum for another season and only then start to climb the arbitration ladder. Reyes will earn $9 million in 2010 and has either a $11 million option or a $500,000 buyout due him in 2011. He'll be a free agent after that.

Cost shouldn't be too much of an issue for a team that ate $13 million on the contract of Julio Lugo and took $5 million gambles on both Brad Penny and John Smoltz. But it still makes no sense to pay an extra $8 or $10 million on a player who represents only a marginal upgrade over what you have.

The reason Ellsbury represents only a marginal upgrade is because the Red Sox still will have to find a center fielder. If they trade Ellsbury for Reyes straight up, they've filled their hole at shortstop (and left Jed Lowrie without a position) but opened up another hole in center field -- a hole that's going to be even tougher to fill given the hole Jason Bay's departure might leave in left field.

Unless you like the idea of a Josh Reddick-Bobby Abreu tandem or a Ryan Kalish-Mike Cameron tandem -- mix and match if you wish -- the Red Sox probably are better off with Ellsbury in center field and Lowrie at shortstop.

It makes sense for the Mets to trade Reyes this offseason in an effort to rebuild. There's no reason, though, the Red Sox have to help them out.

Better approach at the plate giving Ellsbury more chances to steal bases

(This story appeared only in the Union Leader's print edition.)

No Red Sox player has stolen more bases in a season than Jacoby Ellsbury. But the record Ellsbury broke in Tuesday’s first inning is a byproduct of everything else the second-year center fielder has done this season.

“When I’m getting on base, it gives me more opportunities to steal bases – but at the same time to score runs,” he said.

Ellsbury’s on-base percentage at this time last season was .330. It was .343 going into last night’s game against the White Sox. He’s running more often, but he’s also getting on base more often – and the more he’s on base, the more bases he can steal.

Ellsbury has begun to turn himself from a free-swinging slap hitter into the type of patient hitter the work-the-count Red Sox want him to be. In a lineup filled with pitch-grinders who work counts, the center fielder is working his way up the ladder.

He saw a team-low 3.58 pitches per plate appearance a year ago and swung at the first pitch 25 percent of the time he stepped to the plate.

So far this season, he’s seen 3.75 pitches per plate appearance – more than both Mike Lowell and Nick Green – and is swinging at the first pitch 16 percent of the time.

His first at-bat on Sunday against the Yankees lasted six pitches before he hit a ground ball between first and second base and tied up Robinson Cano. His second at-bat on Sunday ended in a strikeout – but not before he’d forced CC Sabathia to throw eight pitches.

“He’s a little more confident now to go deeper in the count,” Red Sox hitting coach Dave Magadan said. “That’s everything. If you’re scared to get to one or two strikes and get behind in the count right off the bat, you’re not going to see a lot of pitches. Right now, he’s confident that just because he gets strike one, it’s not the end of the at-bat.”

Then again, Ellsbury’s run-scoring single to center field on Tuesday came on a first-pitch slider from White Sox reliever Randy Williams. He’s making himself more unpredictable as a hitter – and that means he’s making himself a better hitter.

“That’s one of the few pet peeves I have as a hitting coach: Unless you’re doing a lot of damage on the 0-0 count, I don’t want guys swinging at the first pitch,” Magadan said. (The hitting coach swung at the first pitch 17 percent of the time during his career.) “Now, I want guys up there ready to hit on the first pitch. If you get a good pitch to hit, I want you to hit it and drive it. But if you’re hitting .270 on the first pitch with a .500 OPS, you’re not doing a good job. If you’re hitting .270, that’s what your on-base percentage is because you’re putting the first pitch in play.”

Ellsbury actually has seen his batting average on the first pitch drop from last year (.347) to this year (.324). That has only given Magadan more reason to wean Ellsbury off his habit of hacking.

Drawing walks remains a challenge. Drawing walks, though, goes hand in hand with doing damage with the bat. The better Ellsbury hits the ball, the more walks he’s going to draw.

“If you’re a guy that’s not going to do anything with the bat, they’re going to throw the ball over the plate,” Magadan said. “I wanted him to show teams that he could sting the ball and hit the ball with authority and then gradually work into that patience and seeing pitches and all that. It’s hard to do it the other way around.”

Drawing walks still can be an extra challenge for a guy with the speed of Ellsbury, but that’s all part of the total package. The more he can get on base, be it via an infield single or a walk, the more damage he can do with his legs.

“On 3-2, he’s going to get fastballs,” said Dustin Pedroia, who usually watches Ellsbury’s at-bats from the on-deck circle. “On 3-1, he’s going to get fastballs. They’re not going to risk walking him. That part, when you see his walks, shoot, they don’t want to walk him. He’s not going to walk 100 times. But he’s done a great job of getting on base. When he gets on base, there’s a good chance he’s going to score.”

Never was that more obvious than in the aftermath of Ellsbury’s record-breaking stolen base. He doubled to lead off the first inning and stole third base on the first pitch Freddy Garcia threw to Pedroia. When Pedroia hit a squibber to first base, Ellsbury scored.

“I hit the ball off the end of the bat, and we got a run,” Pedroia said. “His speed helps us win.”

Lester's luck turns as Red Sox rally

Jon Lester now has nine no-decisions this season -- including five in his last six starts. He won't remember many of them much more fondly this season than he will the no-decision he recorded in perhaps the most entertaining Red Sox game of the season.

A short summary: Lester lost his win when a nasty curveball took a bad hop in the dirt. Hideki Okajima tried to basket-catch a pop-up and dropped it -- and he then missed a return throw from the catcher to allow the runner to move to second base. Victor Martinez drove in Nick Green in the seventh and eighth innings, a result even more unexpected given that both players spent the first six innings on the bench. Okajima pitched himself into a jam, and Manny Delcarmen pitched himself out of one.

Jason Bay, who had struck out looking twice already on offspeed pitches, hit a home run on an 0-2 offspeed pitch. Jonathan Papelbon met with the media about Billy Wagner in the afternoon and absolutely blew away the White Sox in the evening. Oh, and Jacoby Ellsbury broke the franchise record for stolen bases on the first pitch to Dustin Pedroia in the bottom of the third.

That's the short summary. Here's the long summary.

1. Ellsbury. The 25-year-old speed demon had gone four games without a left before stealing his team-record-tying 54th stolen base of the season on Friday against the Yankees. Tommy Harper was in the house on Sunday, presumably in hopes Ellsbury would break the record that night. It didn't happen.

"Maybe he was hoping I'd break it -- or not break it," Ellsbury said with a smirk. "He was here and he wished me good luck, so I appreciated that."

But Ellsbury didn't steal a record that night -- he went 0-for-5, in fact, and never even got to first base. He then doubled and tripled on Monday but went without a stolen base.

He didn't wait long on Tuesday, though. He jolted a ground-rule double into the Red Sox bullpen and took off on the first pitch Freddy Garcia threw to second baseman Dustin Pedroia. But it didn't stop there. When Pedroia went out to get a slider away and rolled it to first base, Ellsbury cruised home with the game's first run.

"When I go, there's usually a purpose behind it," he said. "I'm not just out there to steal bases. If I was out therej ust to steal bases, I know I could steal quite a few more. But I want to steal at a high success rate to help the team win. That's the most important thing."

2. Lester. The snakebit lefty now has a 2.97 ERA in his last six starts -- and one measly decision to show for it. He fought through fluky adversity in April but has seen his bad luck return in August -- twice has he struck out double-digit batters in six innings, allowing three or fewer runs in the process, and still not earn himself a win.

"It's kind of getting old sometimes," he said. "But you've got to keep plugging away and keep working. The main thing is that we won the ballgame. That's why I'll go home and sleep good tonight."

He didn't look like he was going to sleep good when he left the field in the seventh inning.

He'd gone the whole game without his best stuff, fighting at times to find pitches that would work for him. He'd hit 96 miles an hour in the eighth inning in Toronto last week but saw his velocity track downward as his pitch count climbed from 50 to 75 to 100.

"There are innings when you go out there and you feel really good," he said, "and other innings where you're just battling to find a rhythm. That's what's tough about starting pitching. Sometimes, form inning to inning, you don't know what you have, and sometimes, from game to game, you don't know what you have. You just have to make adjustments from pitch to pitch. At times I did that, and at times I didn't. ... The nice thing is that the times I didn't feel too good about my mechanics or location or what we were trying to do, I was able to minimize the damage and keep the team in the ballgame."

He got himself into a little bit of a jam in the seventh when he allowed a first-pitch single to Paul Konerko and folloewd with a four-pitch walk to Jermaine Dye. A.J. Pierzynski then bunted the runners to second and third. When Alex Rios hit a line drive to J.D. Drew in right field that failed to score Konerko, it looked as though he was about to escape unscathed -- and with the lead.

He threw three straight curveballs to Alexei Ramirez: A called strike at the knees, a nasty swinging strike at the knees and a nastier swinging strike in the dirt. But the third pitch somehow ricocheted off the left edge of the plate and over the right shoulder of catcher Jason Varitek and rolled all the way to the backstop, allowing Ramirez to reach first and Konerko to score from third.

"It hit the right part of the plate with the wrong spin and got over his head," Lester said. "Nine times out of 10, that ball stays in front of the plate and we get out of the inning."

He then caught a little too much of the plate with a sharp cut fastball -- but appeared to catch a break when Nix hit the ball straight at Mike Lowell at third base. The ball hit Lowell square in the glove -- and it bounced away for a run-scoring infield single.

"You couldn't hit 100 fungoes to Mike Lowell and have that exact same result where you hit a ball out of his gloves," Bay said.

An inning-ending strikeout had given way to a two-run rally and a 3-2 White Sox lead and had knocked Lester from the game. The lefty stalked into the dugout and down the stairs and into the clubhouse, a pat on the back from John Farrell his only solace as he stormed away from what looked to be another defeat snatched from the jaws of victory.

3. Okajima. On a day the Red Sox acquired a flame-throwing lefty in Billy Wagner, the incumbent finesse lefty demonstrated once again why he's been one of the best middle relievers in baseball over the last three seasons. He inherited Lester's jam and promptly saw the White Sox load the bases when Scott Podsednik rolled a ground ball into no-man's land between first base and the pitcher's mound.

But the 33-year-old from Japan came back with his best Wagner impression, throwing three splitfingered fastballs to Gordon Beckham before blowing an 88-mile-an-hour fastball at the eyes -- OK, easing an 88-mile-an-hour fastball at the eyes -- past him to end the inning.

4. Martinez. You'd have to guess that Terry Francona doesn't often exchange late-night text messages with his catcher. Last night, though, Francona got a message from Martinez around 1:15 a.m. that said, "Let me play."

"I finally wrote back," Francona said after the game, "and I said, 'Leave me alone. You'll come in and pinch-hit and get the game-winning hit.' He said, 'OK. Good night.'"

It didn't quite go that way. But it still was a big spot when Francona pinch-hit Martinez for Alex Gonzalez with one out in the seventh inning and the Red Sox still trailing by a 3-2 score. He sent shortstop Nick Green to run for Jason Varitek at the same time, effectively a double-switch with his shortstop and his catcher.

Martinez didn't wait long, jumping on a Matt Thornton fastball in the middle of the plate and ripping it into left field to score Green from second with the tying run. Martinez knew what to expect from Thornton, having faced him 19 times in his days with the Cleveland Indians, and he didn't expect the 6-foot-6 lefty to mess around at all.

"I just went up there and looked for his strength," Martinez said. "It's no secret. Everybody knows he's got a great fastball. I went up there to go get one and put a good swing on the ball."

Tie game.

5. Delcarmen. Carlos Quentin popped the second pitch he saw in the eighth inning over the pitcher's mound, a pop-up just high enough to make Okajima hesitate rather than calling for it himself. The result was a botched basket catch on the back of the mound to allow the runner to reach. (The play first was ruled an error but later changed to a hit.)

"It's got to be Oki's ball because of the height," Francona said. "It was like somebody punched me in the stomach -- and before I could look even look up, I felt like I got hit with the other hand."

The other hand? That came when a return throw from Martinez to Okajima missed the pitcher's outstretched glove and rolled all the way into center field, allowing Quentin to scramble to second base and threatening to turn a tie game back into a White Sox win.

Francona stuck with Okajima long enough to let him induce a pop fly to Dye and strike out Pierzynski, the last lefty in the White Sox lineup for a little while. But he then went to Delcarmen with two outs and runners on first and third and Rios striding to the plate.

Delcarmen found himself on the periphery of controversy this week after the report that both he and Jonathan Papelbon weren't overly enthusiastic about the then-rumored move for Wagner. He also hasn't exactly been the most lights-out pitcher in the Red Sox bullpen and has seen himself passed by both Daniel Bard and Ramon Ramirez in terms of the faith Francona has in him in big spots. Part of the reason is the fact that he's averaging almost a walk every other inning he pitches. When he comes into a game with runners on base, he often puts more runners on base.

True to form, he missed with back-to-back fastballs to Rios.

(Ozzie Guillen made an interesting call, by the way, in not pinch-hitting Jim Thome for Rios. Rios has hit lefties and righties equally in his career, but Thome has crushed righties to the tune of a 1.045 OPS in his career. It seemed logical that once Francona called for Delcarmen, Guillen would send up Thome. But Delcarmen has a goofy reverse split: He's a righthanded pitcher, but righties have hit .260 off him in his career while lefties have hit just .216.)

The third pitch Delcarmen threw was a 92-mile-an-hour fastball at the letters, and Rios popped it into shallow center field. Pedroia caught it for the third out.

6. Bay. Not much has been consistent about Bay's season. He began the season on a tear that turned "Sign Bay!" into a "Don't Treat On Me"-esque New England anthem, but his OPS numbers dwindled from there -- from 1.123 in April to .978 to .701 to .689 in a miserable July in which he hit just one home run.

But things have taken a turn for the better in August. He went into Tuesday's game with seven home runs for the month, and that meant he was feeling a little better in the eighth inning even though he'd already taken two called third strikes against Garcia in the early going.

"It was a constant battle," he said. "You go up there looking for a pitch you can drive, and I had some early on that I didn't swing at. It's kind of nice to do it when it matters."

It mattered in the bottom of the eighth with the game still tied at 3. David Ortiz had turned on a Thornton curveball and put a nice stroke on the ball and hit a line drive almost to the warning track in right field before Dye hauled it in. Bay then came up and took a called strike on a curveball and fouled off a slider to put himself right into the hole he didn't want to be in.

"The problem is, when I look breaking ball, half the time, that's when I swing at it when it bounces because you're looking for it and you get it," he said. "At that point, he had thrown me two (breaking balls), but it's still in the back of your mind that he throws 96 miles an hour. You're just basically looking for a strike."

Thornton hung a splitter, a terrible two-strike pitch right of the middle of the plate, and Bay crushed it into the Green Monster seats.

"It's easier said than done, just to react, but that's basically what it was," he said.

Green, Martinez and Ellsbury followed with hits to score two more runs and push the score to 6-3, a more than manageable margin for a dominant-looking Papelbon in the ninth.

Postscript: Bay's night ended with, of all things, a drug test. He took longer than usual to emerge into the locker room because, he said, "I couldn't go." Two Red Sox players were tested -- Bay and, of course, Ellsbury.

Did they find anything on the record-breaking base-stealer?

"I'll let you know," he said with a grin.

Locking up Jacoby Ellsbury

Red Sox officials no doubt took notice last week when the Arizona Diamondbacks optioned outfielder Chris Young to Triple-A Reno in an effort to rediscover his swing and validate the huge investment they made in him less than two years ago.

Here's what the Diamondbacks owe Young over the course of the contract extension he signed in the spring of 2008:
2009: $1.75 million
2010: $3.25 million
2011: $5 million
2012: $7 million
2013: $8.5 million
2014: $11 million option or a $1.5 million option

Young had 702 major-league plate appearances under his belt when he signed his contract extension. Jacoby Ellsbury will have close to 1,500 major-league plate appearances at the end of this season. Ellsbury also will have virtually the same amount of major-league service time at the end of this season that Dustin Pedroia had when he signed his six-year extension this winter. (All of the three players are almost precisely the same age, too. All three will turn 26 between now and mid-September.)

It's not too early to wonder if the Red Sox are going to approach Ellsbury about a five- or six-year contract extension at some point this winter.

Several teams, including the Red Sox, have done well to sign their cornerstone players to long-term contracts at team-friendly rates. Evan Longoria's deal with Tampa Bay, in fact, is so one-sided the Rays might want to think about buying him a truck or something.

Pedroia, too, will make less money over the next six seasons than Mark Teixeira will make over the next two, but he traded away the chance to earn an extra $10 or $15 million for the security of knowing a career-ending injury won't have an adverse affect on his family.

Ellsbury will be eligible for salary arbitration for the first time following the 2010 season, and the Red Sox immediately will be on the hook for somewhere between $1 million and $3 million. The year after that, the number will jump to between $3 million and $5 million. The year after that? Who knows?

That's why it might behoove the Red Sox to act now and avoid paying later. Tampa Bay signed outfielder Carl Crawford for a four-year, $15.75 million extension even before he became eligible for arbitration, a contract that broke down as follows:
2005: $0.5 million
2006: $2.5 million
2007: $4 million
2008: $5.25 million
2009: $8.25 million option or a $2.5 million buyout
2010: $10 million option or a $1.25 million buyout

Ellsbury, you have to imagine, isn't going to settle for a contract as team-friendly as that of Crawford. He'll likely look for something more along the lines of what Young got from Arizona or what Curtis Granderson got from the Detroit Tigers the year before he got to arbitration, a contract that looks like this:
2008: $1 million
2009: $3.5 million
2010: $5.5 million
2011: $8.25 million
2012: $10 million
2013: $13 million or a $2 million buyout

(Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for all of the salary information.)

The Tigers gambled that Granderson would be worth $8.25 million and $10 million in 2011 and 2012. (So far, so good.) The Diamondbacks gambled that Young would be worth $7 million and $8.5 million in 2012 and 2013. (So far, well, not so much.)

If the Red Sox sign Ellsbury long-term, they'll have to take a similar leap of faith and hope he's someone around whom they can build for the next five or six years. If they don't view him that way, well, they might be better off offering him to Seattle in a package for Felix Hernandez either this winter or next.

Ellsbury finding consistency on, off field

A year ago at this time, if Jacoby Ellsbury felt pretty good as he walked into the clubhouse, he'd head into the weight room and do a little lifting. If he was feeling a little beat up or worn down, he'd skip it. He still did all the lifting he needed to do, but his schedule depended more on how he was feeling than on what day it was.

Not this year.

This year, he's on a set schedule.

"Last year, I lifted when I felt better -- it was like, 'Well, I'm feeling a little dead today, so I'm not going to lift,'" he said. "This year, I'm on a routine. I'm on a schedule. A lot of the stuff I do now is routine-oriented -- I do this at the time -- just to stay consistent with everything."

His newfound consistency in his routine makes him a candidate to avoid the July slump he endured a year ago. He hit .272 and OBP'ed .343 before last year's All-Star break but went 9 for 54 (.173) over the next two weeks before righting the ship with a big August and September.

But he wasn't playing as often last season as he's playing now. When the Red Sox went into the All-Star break a year ago, Ellsbury had started in 77 of the team's first 97 games. This year's All-Star break a week away, and Ellsbury has played more games (78) than anyone except Jason Bay (81) and Dustin Pedroia (79).

For all of the concern about his on-base percentage and his strike-zone discipline, he's actually been the most consistent hitter the Red Sox have. He's the only player on the team to have hit .280 in April, May and June, and his .303 batting average leads the team by a healthy margin. (Kevin Youkilis is second at .291, and Pedroia is third at .290.)

That's a far cry from a year ago, a season in which he hit .280 in April, .245 in June and .340 in September.

Be patient, but be aggressive

It's sometimes tough to stay patient at the plate. Walks are great, after all, and walks have set up more than a few Red Sox wins this season. But unless an opponent is pitching like he needs a seeing-eye dog to find the plate, you're going to need to get some hits to score some runs.

That's the dilemma the Red Sox faced against the Seattle bullpen on Sunday. Starter Brandon Morrow had allowed three home runs but not much else in his six innings on the Fenway Park mound. He'd even hit 99 miles an hour on the radar gun in the fifth. It looked as though an error and a bases-loaded triple were going to be enough to earn the Mariners a sweep of the three-game series.

But J.D. Drew worked a one-out walk off reliever Miguel Batista and Dustin Pedroia followed with a line-drive single to left field. Two batters later, David Ortiz went after a 3-0 fastball and singled through the shift to plate the tying run. That's when Mariners manager Don Wakamatsu summoned flame-throwing righty Mark Lowe. Jason Bay was coming to the plate with runners on first and third and two outs.

Lowe missed with a slider. Bay laid off.

Lowe missed with another slider. Bay laid off.

Lowe missed with yet another slider. Bay laid off.

The problem, of course, was that a walk wasn't going to drive in a run. Only a hit would drive in a run. On top of that, Bay had just seen Ortiz pounce on a 3-0 fastball and rope a run-scoring single to right field. That was as good a reason as any to be ready to swing.

Lowe threw a fastball low and away that, according to MLB.com, might have actually been in the strike zone. Bay laid off. Ball four.

But Bay is a patient hitter. He's prone to strikeouts, but he still swings at fewer than 20 pitches of pitches out of the strike zone and has an on-base percentage that rivals that of Dustin Pedroia.

Jacoby Ellsbury, on the other hand, has swung at more pitches out of the strike zone (26.3 percent) than any Red Sox regular except Nick Green (a whopping 39.1 percent). He lost his job as Red Sox leadoff hitter because he wasn't getting on base -- i.e. walking -- often enough. He's even started showing some power -- and he'd hit a long, long home run just the previous inning.

"He's hitting bombs," Pedroia said, laughing. "He said he's like Barry Bonds: He's a speed guy at the start, and then he's going to turn into a power hitter."

That was a solo shot. This time, Ellsbury was coming to the plate with the game tied and the bases loaded. A single would give the Red Sox the lead. A double or a home run would clear the bases and give the Red Sox some much-needed breathing room.

A walk, of course, would give the Red Sox the lead, too.

Ellsbury took two 98-mile-an-hour fastballs out of the strike zone -- one just low and inside, and one just high. He then took a 97-mile-an-hour fastball right down the middle. The next two pitches barely, barely, barely missed: One was just low, and one was just outside.

Ellsbury never took his bat off his shoulder. Ball four. Pedroia trotted home from the third base with the go-ahead run.

"We needed to be patient," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said. "They were having trouble finding the strike zone. We talk all the time: 'Get a good pitch and whack it.' But in that situation, we needed to be patient because you don't want to help them. Even if you line out or something, you're coming back with a nice at-bat but nothing to show for it."

Said Pedroia, "In that situation, when a guy's having a hard time throwing strikes, the best thing to do is not swing. I know it's tough -- especially with the kind of stuff (Lowe) has. He throws almost 100 miles an hour every pitch. The biggest thing is to try to get to 3-2 or have him walk you. If you get to 3-2, you know it's going to be a battle because he's so good."

Mariners pitching coach Rick Adair then made a visit to the mound -- likely to remind Lowe that it helps to throw strikes every once in a while -- while Mark Kotsay was striding to the plate. Kotsay hasn't played regularly this season and thus has become a bit more of a free-swinger than he used to be. The bases were still loaded. A walk would mean another run.

"When the guy in front of you walks and the pitcher's having trouble with location and command, you want to get a good pitch on the plate and force his hand and try to get ahead in the count," Kotsay said. "Once you get ahead in the count, you know that he's not trying to locate -- he's just trying to throw strikes."

Kotsay got himself ahead in the count, fouling off one pitch but taking three others outside and off the plate. He then swung and missed at a 97-mile-an-hour fastball up and away. Full count.

The next pitch came in over the inside corner at 98 miles an hour. If Kotsay had stood and watched it, had been too patient, it would have been a strike -- and the inning would have been over.

But Kotsay got the bat around and got the barrel on the ball and rolled a ground ball between the first baseman and second baseman. The single plated Ortiz and Bay with the two runs that gave the Red Sox a comfortable cushion.

"You can't lose your aggressiveness to the zone," Kotsay said. "If you do that, he makes a great pitch on you and you're standing and looking at it. He throws 97 or 98. You keep your aggressiveness in the zone."

Being patient and being aggressive: It's really, really difficult to do both. But that's what the Red Sox did on Sunday, and that's why they avoided a sweep with their seventh-inning rally.

Pedroia back in No. 2 spot

Dustin Pedroia didn't have to worry about getting on base in his first at-bat on Monday. J.D. Drew was on third base following a leadoff triple, and it seemed as easy as anything for Pedroia to go after a fastball down and in and rip it through the box for an RBI single.

See the ball. Hit the ball. Nothing to it.

For Pedroia, though, there was plenty to it. He'd hit .328 in 48 games as the No. 2 hitter behind Jacoby Ellsbury -- but when Red Sox manager Terry Francona shuffled the lineup and installed Pedroia as his leadoff hitter, the second baseman hit .214 of his next 24 games.

It's easy to make too much of a shift in the lineup. Pedroia's slump has coincided with the recent struggles of Jason Bay and Kevin Youkilis, and they haven't moved out of the No. 3 and No. 4 spots since Memorial Day.

But there is something to be said for the mentality of table-setting, Francona said before Monday's game, and for putting too much pressure on yourself to be that spark at the top of the lineup.

"He sees himself hitting first, and he wants so bad to do the right thing that he was getting himself in a hole in the count," Francona said. "He wasn't complaining. He was like, 'I'm fine.' ... It's not the biggest deal who hits first and second. But Pedey's trying too hard to do the right thing, and we just want him to be himself."

One question that naturally arises, of course: If you're going to put Pedroia back in the No. 2 spot in the lineup, why not put Ellsbury back at the top? The speedy center fielder was dropped in the lineup because his .335 on-base percentage wasn't cutting it -- and he's got a .379 on-base percentage since the move was made.

The answer: In that same time span, Drew has an OBP of .411.

"J.D. is a guy that's been getting on base more than driving in runs," Francona said. "To have him in a position where he's driving in runs, it just doesn't make sense to me."

And that's why it made sense to make the move -- even though the Red Sox are 18-7 in the month of June.

"That was the other thing Pedey said: He goes, 'We're winning,'" Francona said. "I said to him, 'Why didn't you tell me if it's bothering you?' He goes, '(Gosh golly gee whiz), we're winning.' That's Pedey. That's why we love him. He cares more about winning than himself."

Jacoby stays on message

Jacoby Ellsbury drew just 10 walks in his first 224 plate appearances (4.4 percent), all at the top of the Red Sox order. Since he was bumped down to eighth in the batting order, he's walked nine times in 60 plate appearances (15 percent). His on-base percentage has jumped from .332 to .355.

He's got it now, clearly. He's totally overhauled his hitting approach. He's drinking the Kevin Youkilis Kool-Aid. He's an on-base machine. Right?

"I haven't changed a thing," Ellsbury said. "I haven't changed a thing."

Say what?

"I've had the same approach," he went on. "Basically, I'm just taking what they're giving me. I've always been pretty patient as a hitter, but if they're throwing you strikes, you can't take strikes. They're going to hang a strikeout-looking on you. But they've been off the plate a little more, and I'm just taking what they're giving me."

That's got to be a little disheartening to hear if you're Theo Epstein or Terry Francona -- for two reasons:

1. Ellsbury hasn't made an effort to change his approach.
2. Ellsbury believes he's "always been pretty patient as a hitter."

So far this season, Ellsbury is swinging at more pitches out of the strike zone than any Red Sox hitter except Nick Green. A year ago, he swung at more pitches out of the strike zone than any Red Sox hitter except Dustin Pedroia.

Strike-zone discipline sometimes takes time to learn -- just Atlanta's Chipper Jones, who is fifth among active players in on-base percentage.

"There are certain times when teams are absolutely not going to let me beat them," Jones said in an interview on Friday. "I have to be quick to realize when those situations arise and when I just have to take my walk and let the guy behind me do the damage. But you’re talking about a guy who, this is my 16th year in the big leagues. It’s hard enough for me to do it, much less a guy who’s been in the league two or three years. It’s almost impossible for them to stay patient."

Ellsbury, in one sense, is correct. He has been seeing more pitches out of the strike zone. The pitchers against whom he's been walking -- Philadelphia's Antonio Bastardo and Florida's Andrew Miller, for example -- had control issues against the Red Sox in general and not just against Ellsbury.

"Even as a young kid, I've had a pretty good eye," he said. "But when you're a leadoff hitter or you're a guy who can run, they're not going to want to walk you. If they walk you, you have a chance of stealing a base. The game speeds up, and it puts a lot of pressure on the defense if you can steal. Teams definitely don't want to give guys that can steal bases a base on balls."

There's an expression for that: Self-fulfilling prophecy. If Ellsbury goes up the plate convinced he's going to see nothing but strikes, he's going to do nothing but swing. If he does nothing but swing, he's not going to get on base. Check out the numbers:

Swing percentage:
J.D. Drew: 37.7 percent
Kevin Youkilis: 37.7
Jason Bay: 38.9
Dustin Pedroia: 39.1
Mike Lowell: 42.3
Jacoby Ellsbury: 42.4
Jason Varitek: 42.5
David Ortiz: 46.4
Nick Green: 56.3

On-base percentage:
Kevin Youkilis: .446
Jason Bay: .400
J.D. Drew: .386
Dustin Pedroia: .379
Jacoby Ellsbury: .355
Nick Green: .335
Mike Lowell: .324
Jason Varitek: .320
David Ortiz: .308

The same four make up the top of both lists. That's not coincidence.

***

Fun fact from Saturday's 3-0 win over the Braves: The last time Nick Green faced Derek Lowe, it was the Fourth of July in 2004. Lowe was with the Red Sox. Green was with the Braves -- and so, too, were J.D. Drew and John Smoltz.

Green and Drew delivered the game's biggest hits -- Green singled home the tying run and Drew followed with a two-run double. The Braves knocked Lowe out in the fifth inning of what would be his worst start of the season. Smoltz then pitched a scoreless ninth inning to close it out.