Mike Cameron, as a Red Sox fanbase prone to panic already is aware, will sit out the team's doubleheader on Wednesday against Boston College and Northeastern. Cameron tweaked his groin on Sunday and is going to take things easy for a few days.
That's the adventure that comes with counting on a 37-year-old center fielder. Good health isn't exactly a guarantee.
(This is why the Red Sox were reluctant to commit $15 million a year for four or five years to Jason Bay, who will turn 36 years old in his final season with the Mets should his $17 million option vest. That's another discussion for another time.)
This tweak might be minor, but another injury might not be so minor. There just aren't many outfielders at Cameron's age who can play every day. Only five outfielders last season played more than 140 games at the age of 35 or older:
* Cameron, age 36
* Bobby Abreu, age 35
* Johnny Damon, age 35
* Jermaine Dye, age 35
* Ichiro Suzuki, age 35
* Randy Winn, age 35
Dye is still looking for a job. Damon had to wait until after Valentine's Day to land a job of his own. Winn will be a part-time outfielder with the Yankees. Older outfielders, especially in an era without the fountains of youth the previous era enjoyed, aren't particularly reliable.
Should Cameron go down, the Red Sox have a capable backup in Jeremy Hermida, a corner outfielder who would push Jacoby Ellsbury back to center field. But the Red Sox all of a sudden would be very thin in the outfield, and it might become necessary to call upon almost-ready-for-prime-time prospects Ryan Kalish and/or Josh Reddick, who both will start the season at Triple-A Pawtucket.
How might they fare?
There are ways to project their performance. One such measure is called "Major League Equivalents," a device invented by Bill James in the mid-1980s that can approximate, to a certain degree, what a player might do in the major leagues.
Here's that approximation for Kalish and Reddick:
(MLEs calculated by MinorLeagueSplits.com.)
Ryan Kalish
Single-A (127 plate appearances): .306/.435/.514
Double-A (419 plate appearances): .263/.336/.772
MLE: .216/.270/.337
Josh Reddick
Double-A (274 plate appearances): .273/.349/.522
Triple-A (77 plate appearances): .127/.190/.183
MLE: .111/.165/.167
Keep in mind that the MLEs don't factor in year-to-year improvement. In other words, while Reddick might have been expected to OPS under .400 if he'd played last season in the major leagues, he wouldn't be expected to do so if he plays this season in the major leagues. Consider the final MLE of Dustin Pedroia before he made the leap to the major leagues:
2006 in Triple-A: .294/.385/.454
2006 MLE: .243/.317/.355
2007 in majors: .317/.380/.442
Pedroia came far closer to his actual Triple-A numbers from the previous season than to his major-league equivalent -- in large part because he'd had almost 493 extra plate appearances at Triple-A Pawtucket and almost 100 more in the major leagues to hone his swing.
But the above numbers still do tell you something. What's most interesting is that Kalish -- who hasn't yet played a game at Triple-A -- had better major-league equivalent numbers than Reddick. His advanced plate discipline has quite a bit to do with that. Reddick walked just 35 times in almost 350 plate appearances while Kalish walked 67 times in under 550 plate appearances.
Reddick got a handful of at-bats at Pawtucket last season as well as in the major leagues. He's on the 40-man roster, too. Kalish hasn't yet climbed that rung of the ladder. Should one or both be needed, though, the above MLE numbers indicate that Kalish might be closer to ready than Reddick is.
Showing posts with label reddick. Show all posts
Showing posts with label reddick. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Sunday, December 27, 2009
Jacoby Ellsbury really is expendable
"You can never have enough center fielders."
-- Theo Epstein
The Red Sox general manager, about to enter his eighth season, has made it a focus to accumulate as much up-the-middle talent as he can. His captain has been his catcher (Jason Varitek). His first major trade was for a shortstop (Orlando Cabrera). His first impact rookie was a second baseman (Dustin Pedroia). His first out-of-nowhere World Series hero was a center fielder (Jacoby Ellsbury). His first major trade -- even though it was made in his absence -- was built around a shortstop (Hanley Ramirez).
And of the top 15 position-player prospects in the organization, according to SoxProspects.com, 12 play either catcher, shortstop, second base or center field. Five of the team's top 14 prospects, in fact, look like they'll have the ability to play center field in the major leagues: Reymond Fuentes, Ryan Kalish, Che-Hsuan Lin, Josh Reddick, and Ryan Westmoreland.
(Reddick is the most borderline. His future likely is in right field or left field. SoxProspects, though, specifically points out that "Reddick has the range to be a full time major league center fielder.")
That's what makes today's note from the Chicago Tribune's Phil Rogers so interesting:
Worth watching: If the Red Sox wind up with Matt Holliday or Jason Bay, the Cubs immediately would make a major effort to land Jacoby Ellsbury to fill their center field/leadoff hole, according to sources. That scenario helps explain why the Cubs have been so patient in studying their options. The best way to do such a trade might be for GM Jim Hendry to facilitate a three-team deal that sends first baseman Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres to the Red Sox by packaging a group of prospects, possibly including one or two of their top ones, such as third baseman Josh Vitters, shortstop Hak-Ju Lee and pitchers Andrew Cashner and Jay Jackson.
Ellsbury, of course, already has been associated with the Gonzalez trade rumors this winter. Proponents of including Ellsbury in a package generally have focused on his subpar defensive numbers, according to advanced metrics, and his relatively low on-base percentage at the top of the Red Sox lineup.
There's an even better reason for the Red Sox to look hard at moving Ellsbury if it means a big upgrade elsewhere -- especially if that upgrade is Gonzalez.
Epstein has made Ellsbury expendable.
The reason Ellsbury is so valuable is because he can produce so much while earning so little. He won't even be eligible for salary arbitration until next season, and his team then still will have three years' worth of control of his rights until he hits the open market. Even those who believe Ellsbury has become overrated can't deny that his production far outweighs his salary -- and will do so at least until he hits his second year of arbitration.
That's reason enough to hang onto him unless there's a player behind him ready to fill in with similar production at a similarly low salary -- and, thus, similar bang for the buck. The Red Sox have a half-dozen players in their minor-league system with the potential to do just that.
No, none of them are ready yet. Reddick is closest by virtue of his major-league experience last season. Kalish likely will make his major-league debut at some point next season. But it's not unreasonable to imagine the Red Sox opening the 2010 season with Mike Cameron in center field and Kalish and Reddick both waiting in the wings. Fuentes, Lin and Westmoreland all are 21 years old or younger, but all three could come along within the next three or four years.
There's no reason to hoard so much young talent it doesn't fit on the major-league roster. Kalish and Reddick won't do the Red Sox any good if they're tearing apart the International League.
(This, of course, assumes they'll tear apart the International League. You can't ever make that assumption with individual prospects. The odds that both Kalish and Reddick flop, though, seem pretty minimal.)
The Red Sox can get more in a trade for Ellsbury than they can for Kalish or Reddick simply because Ellsbury already has demonstrated he can hold his own at the major-league level. Trading Ellsbury, however, would have left the Red Sox with a void in center field if not for the signing of Cameron -- a bridge, if you will, to the prospects who seem to be on the way.
If the Cubs are willing to offer the Red Sox enough in the way of prospects for Ellsbury that the Padres don't insist on Clay Buchholz in a trade for Gonzalez, that's a move the Red Sox should make without hesitating.
-- Theo Epstein
The Red Sox general manager, about to enter his eighth season, has made it a focus to accumulate as much up-the-middle talent as he can. His captain has been his catcher (Jason Varitek). His first major trade was for a shortstop (Orlando Cabrera). His first impact rookie was a second baseman (Dustin Pedroia). His first out-of-nowhere World Series hero was a center fielder (Jacoby Ellsbury). His first major trade -- even though it was made in his absence -- was built around a shortstop (Hanley Ramirez).
And of the top 15 position-player prospects in the organization, according to SoxProspects.com, 12 play either catcher, shortstop, second base or center field. Five of the team's top 14 prospects, in fact, look like they'll have the ability to play center field in the major leagues: Reymond Fuentes, Ryan Kalish, Che-Hsuan Lin, Josh Reddick, and Ryan Westmoreland.
(Reddick is the most borderline. His future likely is in right field or left field. SoxProspects, though, specifically points out that "Reddick has the range to be a full time major league center fielder.")
That's what makes today's note from the Chicago Tribune's Phil Rogers so interesting:
Worth watching: If the Red Sox wind up with Matt Holliday or Jason Bay, the Cubs immediately would make a major effort to land Jacoby Ellsbury to fill their center field/leadoff hole, according to sources. That scenario helps explain why the Cubs have been so patient in studying their options. The best way to do such a trade might be for GM Jim Hendry to facilitate a three-team deal that sends first baseman Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres to the Red Sox by packaging a group of prospects, possibly including one or two of their top ones, such as third baseman Josh Vitters, shortstop Hak-Ju Lee and pitchers Andrew Cashner and Jay Jackson.
Ellsbury, of course, already has been associated with the Gonzalez trade rumors this winter. Proponents of including Ellsbury in a package generally have focused on his subpar defensive numbers, according to advanced metrics, and his relatively low on-base percentage at the top of the Red Sox lineup.
There's an even better reason for the Red Sox to look hard at moving Ellsbury if it means a big upgrade elsewhere -- especially if that upgrade is Gonzalez.
Epstein has made Ellsbury expendable.
The reason Ellsbury is so valuable is because he can produce so much while earning so little. He won't even be eligible for salary arbitration until next season, and his team then still will have three years' worth of control of his rights until he hits the open market. Even those who believe Ellsbury has become overrated can't deny that his production far outweighs his salary -- and will do so at least until he hits his second year of arbitration.
That's reason enough to hang onto him unless there's a player behind him ready to fill in with similar production at a similarly low salary -- and, thus, similar bang for the buck. The Red Sox have a half-dozen players in their minor-league system with the potential to do just that.
No, none of them are ready yet. Reddick is closest by virtue of his major-league experience last season. Kalish likely will make his major-league debut at some point next season. But it's not unreasonable to imagine the Red Sox opening the 2010 season with Mike Cameron in center field and Kalish and Reddick both waiting in the wings. Fuentes, Lin and Westmoreland all are 21 years old or younger, but all three could come along within the next three or four years.
There's no reason to hoard so much young talent it doesn't fit on the major-league roster. Kalish and Reddick won't do the Red Sox any good if they're tearing apart the International League.
(This, of course, assumes they'll tear apart the International League. You can't ever make that assumption with individual prospects. The odds that both Kalish and Reddick flop, though, seem pretty minimal.)
The Red Sox can get more in a trade for Ellsbury than they can for Kalish or Reddick simply because Ellsbury already has demonstrated he can hold his own at the major-league level. Trading Ellsbury, however, would have left the Red Sox with a void in center field if not for the signing of Cameron -- a bridge, if you will, to the prospects who seem to be on the way.
If the Cubs are willing to offer the Red Sox enough in the way of prospects for Ellsbury that the Padres don't insist on Clay Buchholz in a trade for Gonzalez, that's a move the Red Sox should make without hesitating.
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Westmoreland tops Kelly on BA list
Casey Kelly and Ryan Westmoreland ranked first and second on Baseball America's Top 10 prospects list for the Red Sox released today. No surprise there.
The surprise, though, might be the order in which they were listed. Kelly's sensational first season on the mound garnered him most of the hype -- but the experts at Baseball America like Westmoreland just a little bit better.
"He's a potential 30-30 player who one day could bat third in the Boston lineup," Jim Callis wrote.
Without doing too much copy-and-paste from the Baseball America scouting reports, here's a little bit of what Callis had to say about some of the big names down on the farm:
* Kelly, the No. 2 prospect on the list, has the best fastball, the best curveball, the best changeup and the best control in the organization, and he "may not need more than another year in the minors."
* Josh Reddick vaulted Lars Anderson for the No. 3 spot on the list thanks to his raw power, his speed and the "unbelievable release and accuracy" of his throwing arm in the outfield. His patience at the plate, an issue a year ago, improved in the minor leagues but regressed upon his promotion to the major leagues.
* Anderson, the No. 1 prospect a year ago, fell to No. 4 thanks to a disappointing season at Double-A Portland a year ago. "With the loft in his swing and the leverage in his big frame, Anderson is still the system's best power-hitting prospect," Callis wrote. It's certainly far too early to write off a young slugger who didn't turn 22 until after the minor-league season ended. He'll probably start next season back at Portland.
* It's not hard to see why the Red Sox like Ryan Kalish, the No. 5 prospect on the list. Not only did he hit 24 doubles and 18 home runs last season, but "He manages his at-bats as well as anyone in the system, waiting for pitches he can drive and taking walks if they don't come," Callis wrote. Baseball America expects Kalish to open the season playing with Reddick at Triple-A Pawtucket.
* Most of the players on the list -- Junichi Tazawa, Jose Iglesias, etc. -- are household names by now among Red Sox fans. Derrik Gibson, though, isn't yet one of them. The 20-year-old middle infielder came in at No. 10 on the list after stealing 28 bases in 33 tries a year ago and scoring 54 runs in just 255 at-bats. "Gibson is poised for a breakout 2010 season at (Single-A) Greenville," Callis wrote.
The surprise, though, might be the order in which they were listed. Kelly's sensational first season on the mound garnered him most of the hype -- but the experts at Baseball America like Westmoreland just a little bit better.
"He's a potential 30-30 player who one day could bat third in the Boston lineup," Jim Callis wrote.
Without doing too much copy-and-paste from the Baseball America scouting reports, here's a little bit of what Callis had to say about some of the big names down on the farm:
* Kelly, the No. 2 prospect on the list, has the best fastball, the best curveball, the best changeup and the best control in the organization, and he "may not need more than another year in the minors."
* Josh Reddick vaulted Lars Anderson for the No. 3 spot on the list thanks to his raw power, his speed and the "unbelievable release and accuracy" of his throwing arm in the outfield. His patience at the plate, an issue a year ago, improved in the minor leagues but regressed upon his promotion to the major leagues.
* Anderson, the No. 1 prospect a year ago, fell to No. 4 thanks to a disappointing season at Double-A Portland a year ago. "With the loft in his swing and the leverage in his big frame, Anderson is still the system's best power-hitting prospect," Callis wrote. It's certainly far too early to write off a young slugger who didn't turn 22 until after the minor-league season ended. He'll probably start next season back at Portland.
* It's not hard to see why the Red Sox like Ryan Kalish, the No. 5 prospect on the list. Not only did he hit 24 doubles and 18 home runs last season, but "He manages his at-bats as well as anyone in the system, waiting for pitches he can drive and taking walks if they don't come," Callis wrote. Baseball America expects Kalish to open the season playing with Reddick at Triple-A Pawtucket.
* Most of the players on the list -- Junichi Tazawa, Jose Iglesias, etc. -- are household names by now among Red Sox fans. Derrik Gibson, though, isn't yet one of them. The 20-year-old middle infielder came in at No. 10 on the list after stealing 28 bases in 33 tries a year ago and scoring 54 runs in just 255 at-bats. "Gibson is poised for a breakout 2010 season at (Single-A) Greenville," Callis wrote.
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Let's revisit Adrian Gonzalez in July
Four reasons why an Adrian Gonzalez trade will make more sense on July 31 than it does now:
1. San Diego's motivation
If Jed Hoyer trades Adrian Gonzalez right now, he'll be announcing to his fan base that he's given up on the 2010 season. Done. Finished. Over and out. He might bring back a nice haul of ready-for-prime-time talent -- especially if he lands Buchholz and Ellsbury -- but the only reason Padres fans have even heard of Buchholz and Ellsbury is because they're inundated with Red Sox coverage on national networks and Web sites.
(Quick: Name San Diego's top prospect, the first baseman who would replace Gonzalez if Hoyer traded him. Too tough? OK. Quick: Name a player on San Diego's roster.)
A trade of Gonzalez would tell the casual fan of the Padres to head off to the beach and not bother reporting back until 2011 or 2012. If Hoyer holds onto Gonzalez until July, though, he at least gives his fans reason to care while he kicks off the rebuilding process -- and it's unlikely the value for Gonzalez is going to decrease at all between now and July 31.
2. Jacoby Ellsbury's defense
Dreamboat certainly has all the tools -- except for an arm, but that's forgiveable -- to be an elite defensive center fielder. Advanced defensive metrics, though, suggest he had a miserable season in center field last season. FanGraphs' Ultimate Zone Rating statistic ranked him last among center fielders with a minus-18.6.
Here's the issue: Ultimate Zone Rating, especially when it comes to outfielders, is subject to random fluctuations and can't be quoted as gospel the way batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage can. Consider the evaluation of Torii Hunter in center field over the past few seasons:
* 2009: minus-2.1
* 2008: minus-13.0
* 2007: minus-6.5
* 2006: minus-11.6
* 2005: 4.5
* 2004: minus-0.2
* 2003: 13.1
Before the Red Sox conclude that Ellsbury can't play center field on a permanent basis, it might be worth using the first three months of the season to see if his numbers drift back to where his physical skill set suggests they should be.
3. Clay Buchholz's ascension
In case you missed it, the skinny righty looked like one of the best pitchers in baseball not too long after the Red Sox called him up for good. From Aug. 8 until Sept. 24, Buchholz went 6-2 (if you care about that sort of thing) with a 2.37 ERA and an opponents' OPS of under .600. He struck out 44 hitters in 64 2/3 innings and walked just 22. Against Toronto on Aug. 29, he went 8 1/3 innings and allowed just one run, striking out nine Blue Jays in the process.
"We’ve always been a champion of Clay and his potential," Theo Epstein said after the Cameron and Lackey press conferences. “He started to show it last year, and there was a six-start stretch in August and September where he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. We think that’s what he is. We think that’s what he can become. You’re not talking about a young, unproven guy anymore. We still think he’s a top-of-the-rotation guy. He’s under control for five years to this ball club. He’s got the makeup to succeed in Boston. He’s got the stuff to succeed in the American League East."
The Yankees have refused to trade Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes. The Rays aren't going to trade David Price. The Braves won't even talk about Tommy Hanson.
If Buchholz can show next spring that his six-week run of starts last season wasn't a fluke, the Red Sox aren't going to trade him, either. That's not the type of arm you let get away -- even for a bat like Adrian Gonzalez.
4. Ryan Kalish's progress -- and Josh Reddick's, too
Should the Red Sox trade away Ellsbury, someone will have to play left field -- and the hope here is that that someone isn't Xavier Nady.
Neither Kalish nor Reddick are ready to start the 2010 season as an everyday player with the Red Sox. Reddick has all of 62 career plate appearances in the major leagues and not much more than that at Triple-A. Kalish hasn't even yet touched Triple-A.
But Kalish and Reddick both are viewed as cornerstone-type outfielders who made it easier for Epstein to bid farewell to Jason Bay. They might not be ready by Opening Day, but both ought to be ready by the time Mike Cameron's two-year contract expires.
One or both also might be ready for a promotion in July -- and if Ellsbury is dealt away, either Kalish or Reddick could step in for him. Epstein won't know if either of the two outfielders is ready, though, until he's had a chance to see how they perform in April and May.
1. San Diego's motivation
If Jed Hoyer trades Adrian Gonzalez right now, he'll be announcing to his fan base that he's given up on the 2010 season. Done. Finished. Over and out. He might bring back a nice haul of ready-for-prime-time talent -- especially if he lands Buchholz and Ellsbury -- but the only reason Padres fans have even heard of Buchholz and Ellsbury is because they're inundated with Red Sox coverage on national networks and Web sites.
(Quick: Name San Diego's top prospect, the first baseman who would replace Gonzalez if Hoyer traded him. Too tough? OK. Quick: Name a player on San Diego's roster.)
A trade of Gonzalez would tell the casual fan of the Padres to head off to the beach and not bother reporting back until 2011 or 2012. If Hoyer holds onto Gonzalez until July, though, he at least gives his fans reason to care while he kicks off the rebuilding process -- and it's unlikely the value for Gonzalez is going to decrease at all between now and July 31.
2. Jacoby Ellsbury's defense
Dreamboat certainly has all the tools -- except for an arm, but that's forgiveable -- to be an elite defensive center fielder. Advanced defensive metrics, though, suggest he had a miserable season in center field last season. FanGraphs' Ultimate Zone Rating statistic ranked him last among center fielders with a minus-18.6.
Here's the issue: Ultimate Zone Rating, especially when it comes to outfielders, is subject to random fluctuations and can't be quoted as gospel the way batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage can. Consider the evaluation of Torii Hunter in center field over the past few seasons:
* 2009: minus-2.1
* 2008: minus-13.0
* 2007: minus-6.5
* 2006: minus-11.6
* 2005: 4.5
* 2004: minus-0.2
* 2003: 13.1
Before the Red Sox conclude that Ellsbury can't play center field on a permanent basis, it might be worth using the first three months of the season to see if his numbers drift back to where his physical skill set suggests they should be.
3. Clay Buchholz's ascension
In case you missed it, the skinny righty looked like one of the best pitchers in baseball not too long after the Red Sox called him up for good. From Aug. 8 until Sept. 24, Buchholz went 6-2 (if you care about that sort of thing) with a 2.37 ERA and an opponents' OPS of under .600. He struck out 44 hitters in 64 2/3 innings and walked just 22. Against Toronto on Aug. 29, he went 8 1/3 innings and allowed just one run, striking out nine Blue Jays in the process.
"We’ve always been a champion of Clay and his potential," Theo Epstein said after the Cameron and Lackey press conferences. “He started to show it last year, and there was a six-start stretch in August and September where he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. We think that’s what he is. We think that’s what he can become. You’re not talking about a young, unproven guy anymore. We still think he’s a top-of-the-rotation guy. He’s under control for five years to this ball club. He’s got the makeup to succeed in Boston. He’s got the stuff to succeed in the American League East."
The Yankees have refused to trade Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes. The Rays aren't going to trade David Price. The Braves won't even talk about Tommy Hanson.
If Buchholz can show next spring that his six-week run of starts last season wasn't a fluke, the Red Sox aren't going to trade him, either. That's not the type of arm you let get away -- even for a bat like Adrian Gonzalez.
4. Ryan Kalish's progress -- and Josh Reddick's, too
Should the Red Sox trade away Ellsbury, someone will have to play left field -- and the hope here is that that someone isn't Xavier Nady.
Neither Kalish nor Reddick are ready to start the 2010 season as an everyday player with the Red Sox. Reddick has all of 62 career plate appearances in the major leagues and not much more than that at Triple-A. Kalish hasn't even yet touched Triple-A.
But Kalish and Reddick both are viewed as cornerstone-type outfielders who made it easier for Epstein to bid farewell to Jason Bay. They might not be ready by Opening Day, but both ought to be ready by the time Mike Cameron's two-year contract expires.
One or both also might be ready for a promotion in July -- and if Ellsbury is dealt away, either Kalish or Reddick could step in for him. Epstein won't know if either of the two outfielders is ready, though, until he's had a chance to see how they perform in April and May.
Monday, November 30, 2009
Giving up a draft pick
The Toronto Blue Jays almost certainly will offer arbitration to shortstop Marco Scutaro on Tuesday, ensuring they'll receive a first-round draft pick from the team that signs him as a free agent. Should the Red Sox sign Scutaro, they would forfeit the No. 29 pick in the draft. Some have speculated that the Red Sox, a player-development machine, would shy away from signing a 34-year-old shortstop at the price of their first-round draft pick.
Not so fast.
A glance at the list of the names atop the list at SoxProspects.com and the names atop the Baseball America list to be released in a couple of weeks reveals that first-round draft picks aren't as critical to the deep-pocketed Red Sox as they are to other teams. Consider the SoxProspects.com list:
1. Casey Kelly: 1st-rounder in 2008
2. Ryan Westmoreland: 5th-rounder in 2008
3. Ryan Kalish: 9th-rounder in 2006
4. Josh Reddick: 17th-rounder in 2006
5. Lars Anderson: 18th-rounder in 2006
6. Anthony Rizzo: 6th-rounder in 2007
7. Junichi Tazawa: International free agent
8. Jose Iglesias: International free agent
9. Stolmy Pimentel: International free agent
10. Michael Bowden: Supplemental pick in 2005
It's not that Westmoreland or Kalish were diamonds in the rough that the Red Sox somehow unearthed deep in the draft the way the Patriots unearthed Tom Brady. The Red Sox didn't necessarily have a scout who saw something in Anderson that no one else saw.
The Red Sox, rather, could afford to pay above-slot money -- meaning bonuses significantly higher than they'd normally pay to late-round picks -- to high-school guys who intended to go to college unless the team that drafted them convinced them to do otherwise.
In that way, the Red Sox drafted first-round talent -- or, at least, second- or third- round talent -- deep in the draft.
The college pitcher drafted one spot ahead of Westmoreland got a $600,000 bonus from the Cleveland Indians, according to Baseball America. Westmoreland, who had a scholarship offer in hand to play at Vanderbilt, got $2 million to decide that education was overrated.
The college third baseman drafted two spots ahead of Kalish got a $70,000 bonus from the Cleveland Indians. The college pitcher drafted one spot ahead of Kalish got a $400,00 bonus from the Los Angeles. Kalish, who could have played quarterback at Virginia, got $600,000 to decide that he liked baseball best of all.
None of the players drafted in the same neighborhood as Anderson got anything worth reporting in the way of signing bonuses -- with the exception of pitcher Michael Dubee, who signed with the Phillies for $125,000. Anderson, who was all set to go to Cal on a baseball scholarship, got $825,000 to make his minor-league bus rides a little more tolerable.
That still happens:
* Pitcher Madison Younginer might not be a household name yet, but he was Baseball America's 19th-best high school talent with a commitment to Clemson who slid into the seventh round. When the Red Sox offered $975,000 to him last summer, he decided orange wasn't his favorite color anymore.
* Outfielder Brandon Jacobs fell into the 10th round this year thanks in large part to a commitment to play football at Auburn, but the Red Sox got him into their system thanks to a signing bonus of $750,000.
* Third baseman Miles Head tumbled all the way into the 26th round because he looked like he'd made up his mind to play for Georgia, but $335,000 from the Red Sox -- a fortune at that point in the draft -- convinced him to do otherwise.
In some ways, if the Red Sox lose their first-round pick, they can use the $2 or $3 million they save to buy some talented high-school draftees out of otherwise firm college commitments. Younginer and infielder David Renfroe -- the 43rd-best high-school talent last year who slid into the back of the third round with a commitment to Ole Miss -- are recent examples of that.
Losing a first-round pick for a free agent is a big deal and shouldn't be taken lightly.
For the right free agent, though, it's something from which the Red Sox can recover in the later rounds of the draft -- or by spending big bucks in international free agency.
(One last thing to consider: Should the Red Sox sign another Type A free agent, be it Chone Figgins or Matt Holliday or John Lackey or Rafael Soriano, they can only lose one first-round pick. The price of Scutaro then would become a second-round pick.)
Not so fast.
A glance at the list of the names atop the list at SoxProspects.com and the names atop the Baseball America list to be released in a couple of weeks reveals that first-round draft picks aren't as critical to the deep-pocketed Red Sox as they are to other teams. Consider the SoxProspects.com list:
1. Casey Kelly: 1st-rounder in 2008
2. Ryan Westmoreland: 5th-rounder in 2008
3. Ryan Kalish: 9th-rounder in 2006
4. Josh Reddick: 17th-rounder in 2006
5. Lars Anderson: 18th-rounder in 2006
6. Anthony Rizzo: 6th-rounder in 2007
7. Junichi Tazawa: International free agent
8. Jose Iglesias: International free agent
9. Stolmy Pimentel: International free agent
10. Michael Bowden: Supplemental pick in 2005
It's not that Westmoreland or Kalish were diamonds in the rough that the Red Sox somehow unearthed deep in the draft the way the Patriots unearthed Tom Brady. The Red Sox didn't necessarily have a scout who saw something in Anderson that no one else saw.
The Red Sox, rather, could afford to pay above-slot money -- meaning bonuses significantly higher than they'd normally pay to late-round picks -- to high-school guys who intended to go to college unless the team that drafted them convinced them to do otherwise.
In that way, the Red Sox drafted first-round talent -- or, at least, second- or third- round talent -- deep in the draft.
The college pitcher drafted one spot ahead of Westmoreland got a $600,000 bonus from the Cleveland Indians, according to Baseball America. Westmoreland, who had a scholarship offer in hand to play at Vanderbilt, got $2 million to decide that education was overrated.
The college third baseman drafted two spots ahead of Kalish got a $70,000 bonus from the Cleveland Indians. The college pitcher drafted one spot ahead of Kalish got a $400,00 bonus from the Los Angeles. Kalish, who could have played quarterback at Virginia, got $600,000 to decide that he liked baseball best of all.
None of the players drafted in the same neighborhood as Anderson got anything worth reporting in the way of signing bonuses -- with the exception of pitcher Michael Dubee, who signed with the Phillies for $125,000. Anderson, who was all set to go to Cal on a baseball scholarship, got $825,000 to make his minor-league bus rides a little more tolerable.
That still happens:
* Pitcher Madison Younginer might not be a household name yet, but he was Baseball America's 19th-best high school talent with a commitment to Clemson who slid into the seventh round. When the Red Sox offered $975,000 to him last summer, he decided orange wasn't his favorite color anymore.
* Outfielder Brandon Jacobs fell into the 10th round this year thanks in large part to a commitment to play football at Auburn, but the Red Sox got him into their system thanks to a signing bonus of $750,000.
* Third baseman Miles Head tumbled all the way into the 26th round because he looked like he'd made up his mind to play for Georgia, but $335,000 from the Red Sox -- a fortune at that point in the draft -- convinced him to do otherwise.
In some ways, if the Red Sox lose their first-round pick, they can use the $2 or $3 million they save to buy some talented high-school draftees out of otherwise firm college commitments. Younginer and infielder David Renfroe -- the 43rd-best high-school talent last year who slid into the back of the third round with a commitment to Ole Miss -- are recent examples of that.
Losing a first-round pick for a free agent is a big deal and shouldn't be taken lightly.
For the right free agent, though, it's something from which the Red Sox can recover in the later rounds of the draft -- or by spending big bucks in international free agency.
(One last thing to consider: Should the Red Sox sign another Type A free agent, be it Chone Figgins or Matt Holliday or John Lackey or Rafael Soriano, they can only lose one first-round pick. The price of Scutaro then would become a second-round pick.)
Saturday, November 14, 2009
ETAs of the top Red Sox prospects
As the Red Sox weigh their options for the winter -- signing Jason Bay long-term, for example, or trading prospects for Adrian Gonzalez or Roy Halladay -- they'll do so with an eye on the farm system that has pumped out as much talent as any over the last five years or so.
Jon Lester already is one of the best pitchers in the major leagues, and Clay Buchholz is poised to join him. Jonathan Papelbon is one of the best relief pitchers in the major leagues, and Daniel Bard is poised to join him. Dustin Pedroia is one of the best middle infielders in the major leagues, and Jed Lowrie -- well, Lowrie probably needs to stay healthy for a full season first.
But the fact remains that the Red Sox will make all of their decisions with their farm system in mind -- and that means it's worth looking ahead at when some of those prospects might make their debuts at Fenway Park:
Lars Anderson, 1B
Who he is: If you haven't heard of Anderson, you were living under a rock a year ago at this time. If you haven't given up on Anderson, you're a rare breed among Red Sox fans. The first baseman saw his numbers plummet across the board in his first season : He hit .233 and slugged just .345, and given the publicity he received during the Mark Teixeira saga, most Red Sox fans wrote him off as yet another bust.
When he'll get to Boston: Midseason call-up, 2011.
Why he matters: His age, first and foremost -- he only turned 22 after the minor-league season ended, and that means he's still got plenty of room to grow. Heck, it's worth comparing him with the first baseman after whom the Red Sox now seem to lust and what he did as a 21-year-old playing in Double-A three years after he first was drafted:
* Anderson: .233 batting, .328 on-base, .345 slugging
* Gonzalez: .269 batting, .327 on-base, .365 slugging
A year later, Gonzalez hit .304/.364/.457 as a 22-year-old at Triple-A Oklahoma and made his first cameo in the major leagues. The Red Sox almost certainly will start Anderson back in Double-A and give him a chance to show last season was the type of fluke his career numbers make it seem it was.
Jose Iglesias, SS
Who he is: Seeing as how he's already being touted as the solution to the Red Sox revolving door at shortstop, it's important to remember he's not yet 20 years old. Still, though, his glove reportedly already is major-league ready, and if Texas' 21-year-old shortstop Elvis Andrus is named Rookie of the Year in the coming days, some will jump to the conclusion that Iglesias might only be a year or so away from the Red Sox roster.
Again, though, it's worth looking closer at the comparison. Andrus was 16 years old when he made his professional debut, hitting .295 and OBP'ing .377 for the Atlanta Braves' Rookie-level team in the Gulf Coast League. He was 19 years old when he played a full season at Double-A Frisco in the Rangers' organization. Iglesias, on the other hand, will be 20 years old when he makes his professional debut -- his Arizona Fall League tenure aside -- and still needs to take the minor leagues level-by-level.
A more apt comparison might be Orlando Cabrera, who made his pro debut in the Expos' system as a 19-year-old in 1994 and got his first cup of coffee in the major leagues as a 22-year-old in 1997.
When he'll get to Boston: Opening Day, 2012. (The Red Sox signed him to a major-league contract -- and that means he only can be optioned to the minor leagues three times -- in 2010, 2011 and 2012.)
Why he matters: It's not as if the Red Sox are eager in any way to trade away Jed Lowrie. His injury history has torpedoed his value, and the Red Sox still believe Lowrie can be their everyday shortstop. But the presence of Iglesias deep in the farm system means the Red Sox can think short-term at the position -- insert obligatory Marco Scutaro reference here -- with an eye on Iglesias taking over at the position in three or four years.
Ryan Kalish, OF
Who he is: He's the next big name to play his way onto the radar of casual Red Sox fans. After a miserable start at Double-A Portland, Kalish OPS'ed .855 in July, .867 in August and 1.280 in 26 at-bats in September. (He hit three home runs in the final week of the season.)
He even stole a team-best 14 bases and was caught just three times, and he split time defensively between center field and left field.
(With a little bit of luck there should be a Q&A with Kalish in this space in the next week.)
When he'll get to Boston: Opening Day, 2011.
Why he matters: Kalish and Josh Reddick -- see below -- both impact how the Red Sox will approach their negotiations with Jason Bay. The negotiations thus far have been quiet, but it's safe to assume that the Red Sox are more reluctant to push the envelope in terms of years than in terms of dollars. The 31-year-old Bay already is a subpar defensive left fielder, and the presence of Kalish and Reddick in the system means the Red Sox might view Bay as the heir to David Ortiz as their designated hitter. If that's something that Bay can't accept, he's probably going to sign elsewhere.
Kalish, in fact, has a chance to become an above-average defensive center fielder -- and he could prompt Jacoby Ellsbury to follow the Carl Crawford career track, moving to left field to give the Red Sox an exceptional defensive outfield.
Casey Kelly, P
Who he is: One of the top pitching prospects in the game, Kelly had a 1.12 ERA in nine starts at Single-A Greenville and a 3.09 ERA in eight starts after a promotion to Single-A Salem. Presuming the Red Sox convince him his future is as a starting pitcher, he'll start next season at Double-A Portland and climb the ladder as quickly as his results will let him.
But he's still just 20 years old, and that means he'll need a little bit of time to let his repertoire take shape. He throws a fastball around 92 miles per hour -- and he has room to grow -- with a hard curveball, a potential plus pitch, and a changeup.
When he'll get to Boston: Midseason call-up, 2011.
Why he matters: Simply put, he's the best prospect in the Red Sox system, and he's going to have to be part of any deal the Red Sox make for Gonzalez or Halladay or Felix Hernandez -- especially if the Red Sox make Clay Buchholz off-limits. If the Red Sox see him as a future star in the mold of Jon Lester, they might not be willing to make the type of impact trade some want them to make.
Josh Reddick, OF
Who he is: Reddick made his major-league debut last season -- he even hit a couple of home runs -- but what's most important was the way he played in the minor leagues. He went into last season with an eye on improving his approach at the plate and working more walks, and that's just what he did. He walked just 34 times in more than 500 plate appearances in 2008, and he walked 36 times in fewer than 400 plate appearances in 2009.
His batting average and slugging percentage both suffered, but for a player with Reddick's ability, it might just be a step back that eventually yields two or three giant steps forward.
When he'll get to Boston: Been there, done that.
Why he matters: He'll start next season at Triple-A Pawtucket no matter what happens with Bay. It's almost unfathomable that the Red Sox would be satisfied with replacing a middle-of-the-order bat with a 23-year-old rookie. (When Dustin Pedroia took over full-time at second base three seasons ago, don't forget, he was replacing Mark Loretta and didn't need to do much more than play solid defense and hit the ball every once in a while.)
But his presence and the way the Red Sox feel about him will impact the Bay negotiations. Not only would he likely relegate Bay to designated-hitter duties if he emerged as a potential star, but he and Kalish also give the Red Sox reason to believe that a stopgap solution of Bobby Abreu or Mike Cameron or Josh Willingham with an eye on a younger player taking over in 2011 might be a better more than paying Bay $15 million over the next four or five seasons.
Ryan Westmoreland, OF
Who he is: If he can stop running into walls and breaking his collarbone -- word from the ProJo is that he's doing just fine -- the Rhode Island native likely will open next season at Single-A Greenville and continue his march toward the major leagues. He hit .296 and OBP'ed .401 in his pro debut a year ago, walking 38 times in fewer than 300 plate appearances and ranking fourth in the New York-Penn League in OPS (.885).
When he'll get to Boston: Midseason call-up, 2013.
Why he matters: Like Kelly, at this point, he's a key chip in any trade for an impact bat like Gonzalez or arm like Hernandez. He's essentially irrelevant in any discussions about the future makeup of the Red Sox roster because his arrival is so far off -- it took Grady Sizemore, a frequent basis of comparison for Westmoreland, four years to reach the major leagues, and he didn't miss time with injuries the way Westmoreland has.
But his raw skills have to be tantalizing for teams like the Blue Jays or the Padres. With his power potential -- he slugged .484 for the Spinners this season, including seven home runs -- his upside is higher than that of Jacoby Ellsbury. You'd better believe his name is coming up in trade discussions, and his availability might determine what sort of player the Red Sox can acquire in any trade.
Jon Lester already is one of the best pitchers in the major leagues, and Clay Buchholz is poised to join him. Jonathan Papelbon is one of the best relief pitchers in the major leagues, and Daniel Bard is poised to join him. Dustin Pedroia is one of the best middle infielders in the major leagues, and Jed Lowrie -- well, Lowrie probably needs to stay healthy for a full season first.
But the fact remains that the Red Sox will make all of their decisions with their farm system in mind -- and that means it's worth looking ahead at when some of those prospects might make their debuts at Fenway Park:
Lars Anderson, 1B
Who he is: If you haven't heard of Anderson, you were living under a rock a year ago at this time. If you haven't given up on Anderson, you're a rare breed among Red Sox fans. The first baseman saw his numbers plummet across the board in his first season : He hit .233 and slugged just .345, and given the publicity he received during the Mark Teixeira saga, most Red Sox fans wrote him off as yet another bust.
When he'll get to Boston: Midseason call-up, 2011.
Why he matters: His age, first and foremost -- he only turned 22 after the minor-league season ended, and that means he's still got plenty of room to grow. Heck, it's worth comparing him with the first baseman after whom the Red Sox now seem to lust and what he did as a 21-year-old playing in Double-A three years after he first was drafted:
* Anderson: .233 batting, .328 on-base, .345 slugging
* Gonzalez: .269 batting, .327 on-base, .365 slugging
A year later, Gonzalez hit .304/.364/.457 as a 22-year-old at Triple-A Oklahoma and made his first cameo in the major leagues. The Red Sox almost certainly will start Anderson back in Double-A and give him a chance to show last season was the type of fluke his career numbers make it seem it was.
Jose Iglesias, SS
Who he is: Seeing as how he's already being touted as the solution to the Red Sox revolving door at shortstop, it's important to remember he's not yet 20 years old. Still, though, his glove reportedly already is major-league ready, and if Texas' 21-year-old shortstop Elvis Andrus is named Rookie of the Year in the coming days, some will jump to the conclusion that Iglesias might only be a year or so away from the Red Sox roster.
Again, though, it's worth looking closer at the comparison. Andrus was 16 years old when he made his professional debut, hitting .295 and OBP'ing .377 for the Atlanta Braves' Rookie-level team in the Gulf Coast League. He was 19 years old when he played a full season at Double-A Frisco in the Rangers' organization. Iglesias, on the other hand, will be 20 years old when he makes his professional debut -- his Arizona Fall League tenure aside -- and still needs to take the minor leagues level-by-level.
A more apt comparison might be Orlando Cabrera, who made his pro debut in the Expos' system as a 19-year-old in 1994 and got his first cup of coffee in the major leagues as a 22-year-old in 1997.
When he'll get to Boston: Opening Day, 2012. (The Red Sox signed him to a major-league contract -- and that means he only can be optioned to the minor leagues three times -- in 2010, 2011 and 2012.)
Why he matters: It's not as if the Red Sox are eager in any way to trade away Jed Lowrie. His injury history has torpedoed his value, and the Red Sox still believe Lowrie can be their everyday shortstop. But the presence of Iglesias deep in the farm system means the Red Sox can think short-term at the position -- insert obligatory Marco Scutaro reference here -- with an eye on Iglesias taking over at the position in three or four years.
Ryan Kalish, OF
Who he is: He's the next big name to play his way onto the radar of casual Red Sox fans. After a miserable start at Double-A Portland, Kalish OPS'ed .855 in July, .867 in August and 1.280 in 26 at-bats in September. (He hit three home runs in the final week of the season.)
He even stole a team-best 14 bases and was caught just three times, and he split time defensively between center field and left field.
(With a little bit of luck there should be a Q&A with Kalish in this space in the next week.)
When he'll get to Boston: Opening Day, 2011.
Why he matters: Kalish and Josh Reddick -- see below -- both impact how the Red Sox will approach their negotiations with Jason Bay. The negotiations thus far have been quiet, but it's safe to assume that the Red Sox are more reluctant to push the envelope in terms of years than in terms of dollars. The 31-year-old Bay already is a subpar defensive left fielder, and the presence of Kalish and Reddick in the system means the Red Sox might view Bay as the heir to David Ortiz as their designated hitter. If that's something that Bay can't accept, he's probably going to sign elsewhere.
Kalish, in fact, has a chance to become an above-average defensive center fielder -- and he could prompt Jacoby Ellsbury to follow the Carl Crawford career track, moving to left field to give the Red Sox an exceptional defensive outfield.
Casey Kelly, P
Who he is: One of the top pitching prospects in the game, Kelly had a 1.12 ERA in nine starts at Single-A Greenville and a 3.09 ERA in eight starts after a promotion to Single-A Salem. Presuming the Red Sox convince him his future is as a starting pitcher, he'll start next season at Double-A Portland and climb the ladder as quickly as his results will let him.
But he's still just 20 years old, and that means he'll need a little bit of time to let his repertoire take shape. He throws a fastball around 92 miles per hour -- and he has room to grow -- with a hard curveball, a potential plus pitch, and a changeup.
When he'll get to Boston: Midseason call-up, 2011.
Why he matters: Simply put, he's the best prospect in the Red Sox system, and he's going to have to be part of any deal the Red Sox make for Gonzalez or Halladay or Felix Hernandez -- especially if the Red Sox make Clay Buchholz off-limits. If the Red Sox see him as a future star in the mold of Jon Lester, they might not be willing to make the type of impact trade some want them to make.
Josh Reddick, OF
Who he is: Reddick made his major-league debut last season -- he even hit a couple of home runs -- but what's most important was the way he played in the minor leagues. He went into last season with an eye on improving his approach at the plate and working more walks, and that's just what he did. He walked just 34 times in more than 500 plate appearances in 2008, and he walked 36 times in fewer than 400 plate appearances in 2009.
His batting average and slugging percentage both suffered, but for a player with Reddick's ability, it might just be a step back that eventually yields two or three giant steps forward.
When he'll get to Boston: Been there, done that.
Why he matters: He'll start next season at Triple-A Pawtucket no matter what happens with Bay. It's almost unfathomable that the Red Sox would be satisfied with replacing a middle-of-the-order bat with a 23-year-old rookie. (When Dustin Pedroia took over full-time at second base three seasons ago, don't forget, he was replacing Mark Loretta and didn't need to do much more than play solid defense and hit the ball every once in a while.)
But his presence and the way the Red Sox feel about him will impact the Bay negotiations. Not only would he likely relegate Bay to designated-hitter duties if he emerged as a potential star, but he and Kalish also give the Red Sox reason to believe that a stopgap solution of Bobby Abreu or Mike Cameron or Josh Willingham with an eye on a younger player taking over in 2011 might be a better more than paying Bay $15 million over the next four or five seasons.
Ryan Westmoreland, OF
Who he is: If he can stop running into walls and breaking his collarbone -- word from the ProJo is that he's doing just fine -- the Rhode Island native likely will open next season at Single-A Greenville and continue his march toward the major leagues. He hit .296 and OBP'ed .401 in his pro debut a year ago, walking 38 times in fewer than 300 plate appearances and ranking fourth in the New York-Penn League in OPS (.885).
When he'll get to Boston: Midseason call-up, 2013.
Why he matters: Like Kelly, at this point, he's a key chip in any trade for an impact bat like Gonzalez or arm like Hernandez. He's essentially irrelevant in any discussions about the future makeup of the Red Sox roster because his arrival is so far off -- it took Grady Sizemore, a frequent basis of comparison for Westmoreland, four years to reach the major leagues, and he didn't miss time with injuries the way Westmoreland has.
But his raw skills have to be tantalizing for teams like the Blue Jays or the Padres. With his power potential -- he slugged .484 for the Spinners this season, including seven home runs -- his upside is higher than that of Jacoby Ellsbury. You'd better believe his name is coming up in trade discussions, and his availability might determine what sort of player the Red Sox can acquire in any trade.
Sunday, September 20, 2009
The nomadic life of fringe roster players
(This story appeared only in the print edition of Sunday's Union Leader.)
Josh Reddick isn’t much for fancy trappings.
When the Red Sox rookie outfielder heads home after games, he arrives back in a hotel room with a bed and a television and his hand-held video-game system – and that’s it. It’s the same at home and on the road. Not much changes but the view from the window.
“I’m used to it by now,” the 22-year-old outfielder said earlier this week. “I’ve been doing it for the last month and a half with all the moving around, so I’m used to it by now.”
Reddick is one of several Red Sox players living in temporary quarters during a September call-up to the major leagues. Baseball life can be nomadic regardless, but it’s particularly nomadic for those players who jump between levels – and thus between cities – the way Reddick has since his first call-up in early August.
No player buying or renting a home ever can have 100 percent certainty he’ll still be in that home within a month or within a year. That can cause plenty of problems in itself.
“Guys are quick to buy a piece of real estate and plan on living there and being there forever,” said outfielder Rocco Baldelli, who this year unloaded the one-bedroom condo he’d bought in Tampa during his second big-league season. (He sold it for exactly his purchase price, he said.) “You see it all the time – and then people have condominiums or apartments or homes they don’t really want anymore because they have no reason to be in that city anymore.”
But fringe roster players like Reddick and his fellow September call-ups deal with more uncertainty than most. It’s not easy to move from Portland or Pawtucket to Boston and immediately find an apartment with a short-term lease. It’s especially not easy when a player is summoned immediately to the ballpark and doesn’t have any time to make arrangements.
“I don’t want to say you get used to it, but you understand the situation,” said Joey Gathright, who has worn three different uniforms in the last three weeks. “You get there and, if you think you’re going to be there longer, you get a place to stay. If not, you just get a hotel room. It’s not fun, I can guarantee you that, but it helps if you have a girlfriend or someone like that to help you out.”
Gathright was playing for Triple-A Norfolk (Va.) when the Red Sox acquired him from the Orioles in the final week of August. The speedy outfielder played all of three games at Triple-A Pawtucket before the Red Sox recalled him to Boston to add extra depth to the roster.
His permanent home is out in Santa Monica, Calif., and he mostly lived out of a suitcase during his four months with the Orioles’ Triple-A affiliate. He’s living out of the same suitcase now whether the Red Sox are in Boston or on the road – and when he runs out of clothes, he just goes out and buys what he needs.
Gathright bought a home in Tampa after he made his major-league debut with the Rays in 2004. Two years later, though, he was traded to the Kansas City Royals – and he’s bounced from there to the Cubs to the Orioles and, most recently, to the Red Sox.
“There’s no sense in trying to get a place,” he said of his short stint in Boston. “You never know what’s going to happen.”
Case in point: When veteran first baseman Adam LaRoche was acquired from Pittsburgh in mid-July, he didn’t bother to find an apartment. He instead crashed with J.D. Drew, sleeping in his old buddy’s finished basement.
The first baseman was traded to the Atlanta Braves less than two weeks later.
Most new arrivals, though, don’t have the luxury of moving in temporarily with another player. Reddick hadn’t even met most of the Red Sox regulars before spring training this season, and in a culture in which rookies have to wear “The Wizard of Oz” costumes on the final road trip, rookies certainly aren’t going to impose on veterans with families.
Besides, the Red Sox do help out a little bit. Reddick doesn’t have to pay for his hotel room on the road, of course, but the team is footing the bill for seven of the 10 nights the Georgia native spent in Boston during this homestand. Reddick was responsible for paying for the other three nights – but he was also receiving a major-league salary.
When he was optioned briefly to Triple-A Pawtucket, he stayed at a local Radisson for a player-friendly rate of $35 a night. As long as his computer and his iPod are close at hand, he’s got all he needs.
“I spend most of my time (at the park), anyway, so it’s more of just a bed to sleep in,” he said. “I just look at it as a place to lay down and watch TV. I just sit on my laptop after the game until 1 in the morning and sleep in until 10 or 11, and I’m at the ballpark before 1 every day, so it’s not like I’m spending all day in there doing nothing.”
Josh Reddick isn’t much for fancy trappings.
When the Red Sox rookie outfielder heads home after games, he arrives back in a hotel room with a bed and a television and his hand-held video-game system – and that’s it. It’s the same at home and on the road. Not much changes but the view from the window.
“I’m used to it by now,” the 22-year-old outfielder said earlier this week. “I’ve been doing it for the last month and a half with all the moving around, so I’m used to it by now.”
Reddick is one of several Red Sox players living in temporary quarters during a September call-up to the major leagues. Baseball life can be nomadic regardless, but it’s particularly nomadic for those players who jump between levels – and thus between cities – the way Reddick has since his first call-up in early August.
No player buying or renting a home ever can have 100 percent certainty he’ll still be in that home within a month or within a year. That can cause plenty of problems in itself.
“Guys are quick to buy a piece of real estate and plan on living there and being there forever,” said outfielder Rocco Baldelli, who this year unloaded the one-bedroom condo he’d bought in Tampa during his second big-league season. (He sold it for exactly his purchase price, he said.) “You see it all the time – and then people have condominiums or apartments or homes they don’t really want anymore because they have no reason to be in that city anymore.”
But fringe roster players like Reddick and his fellow September call-ups deal with more uncertainty than most. It’s not easy to move from Portland or Pawtucket to Boston and immediately find an apartment with a short-term lease. It’s especially not easy when a player is summoned immediately to the ballpark and doesn’t have any time to make arrangements.
“I don’t want to say you get used to it, but you understand the situation,” said Joey Gathright, who has worn three different uniforms in the last three weeks. “You get there and, if you think you’re going to be there longer, you get a place to stay. If not, you just get a hotel room. It’s not fun, I can guarantee you that, but it helps if you have a girlfriend or someone like that to help you out.”
Gathright was playing for Triple-A Norfolk (Va.) when the Red Sox acquired him from the Orioles in the final week of August. The speedy outfielder played all of three games at Triple-A Pawtucket before the Red Sox recalled him to Boston to add extra depth to the roster.
His permanent home is out in Santa Monica, Calif., and he mostly lived out of a suitcase during his four months with the Orioles’ Triple-A affiliate. He’s living out of the same suitcase now whether the Red Sox are in Boston or on the road – and when he runs out of clothes, he just goes out and buys what he needs.
Gathright bought a home in Tampa after he made his major-league debut with the Rays in 2004. Two years later, though, he was traded to the Kansas City Royals – and he’s bounced from there to the Cubs to the Orioles and, most recently, to the Red Sox.
“There’s no sense in trying to get a place,” he said of his short stint in Boston. “You never know what’s going to happen.”
Case in point: When veteran first baseman Adam LaRoche was acquired from Pittsburgh in mid-July, he didn’t bother to find an apartment. He instead crashed with J.D. Drew, sleeping in his old buddy’s finished basement.
The first baseman was traded to the Atlanta Braves less than two weeks later.
Most new arrivals, though, don’t have the luxury of moving in temporarily with another player. Reddick hadn’t even met most of the Red Sox regulars before spring training this season, and in a culture in which rookies have to wear “The Wizard of Oz” costumes on the final road trip, rookies certainly aren’t going to impose on veterans with families.
Besides, the Red Sox do help out a little bit. Reddick doesn’t have to pay for his hotel room on the road, of course, but the team is footing the bill for seven of the 10 nights the Georgia native spent in Boston during this homestand. Reddick was responsible for paying for the other three nights – but he was also receiving a major-league salary.
When he was optioned briefly to Triple-A Pawtucket, he stayed at a local Radisson for a player-friendly rate of $35 a night. As long as his computer and his iPod are close at hand, he’s got all he needs.
“I spend most of my time (at the park), anyway, so it’s more of just a bed to sleep in,” he said. “I just look at it as a place to lay down and watch TV. I just sit on my laptop after the game until 1 in the morning and sleep in until 10 or 11, and I’m at the ballpark before 1 every day, so it’s not like I’m spending all day in there doing nothing.”
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Highlights of hazing
Because the Red Sox are departing on their final road trip, that means the team's group of rookies are enduring the indignity of dressing up in costumes for the trip to Baltimore. It's immature and it's juvenile, sure, but it's still relatively tame.
This year's theme? "The Wizard of Oz." The cast:
Dorothy: Junichi Tazawa, in a blue and white dress with knee socks. Daisuke Matsuzaka helped him zip up the dress in the back, a true example of a teammate helping a teammate look totally ridiculous.
Scarecrow: Dusty Brown, who put his costume on first and thus was probably the best sport about it. The outfit came with a tiny green hat, but there was no way he was going to get it to stay on.
Tin man: Michael Bowden, whose costume was more ridiculous -- and more revealing in the, shall we say, low-cut department -- than any of the others. He even had a little silver hat with a heart imprinted on it.
Lion: Daniel Bard, who even wore a little headband with ears.
Glinda, the Good Witch: Josh Reddick, who wore a fluffy blue dress and who was given a wand that had three -- that's right, three! -- light-up settings. Hours of entertainment for the plane right.
This year's theme? "The Wizard of Oz." The cast:
Dorothy: Junichi Tazawa, in a blue and white dress with knee socks. Daisuke Matsuzaka helped him zip up the dress in the back, a true example of a teammate helping a teammate look totally ridiculous.
Scarecrow: Dusty Brown, who put his costume on first and thus was probably the best sport about it. The outfit came with a tiny green hat, but there was no way he was going to get it to stay on.
Tin man: Michael Bowden, whose costume was more ridiculous -- and more revealing in the, shall we say, low-cut department -- than any of the others. He even had a little silver hat with a heart imprinted on it.
Lion: Daniel Bard, who even wore a little headband with ears.
Glinda, the Good Witch: Josh Reddick, who wore a fluffy blue dress and who was given a wand that had three -- that's right, three! -- light-up settings. Hours of entertainment for the plane right.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
There's a reason the PawSox have so few hitters
Ron Johnson isn’t worried that his team isn’t hitting.
The manager of the Pawtucket Red Sox has overseen the least productive offensive team the Triple-A International League has seen in years. His PawSox have hit just .231 this season and have scored fewer than 400 runs, something no other Triple-A team in either the International League or the Pacific Coast League has managed to accomplish.
Not surprisingly, even with pitchers like Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden on the roster for most of the year, the PawSox went into the final month of their season buried in fifth place in the International League’s North Division.
“No matter what happens these last three and a half, four weeks, as far as development of players in the Boston Red Sox system, this is a positive year,” Johnson said from his office at McCoy Stadium earlier this month. “We’d like to flip the record around a little bit, but that’s the way it goes. …
“We have players that have moved to this level, and that’s going to give them an opportunity to be that much more prepared when the time comes that they have to help our major league team.”
Johnson then paused.
“That’s kind of like what we’re here to do,” he said with more than a hint of facetiousness.
Johnson’s optimism notwithstanding, this year has been one of transition for the Red Sox organization. A system that has pumped out major-league hitters like fastballs at a batting cage has gone silent this season. The Red Sox haven’t able to call for impact reinforcements as their runs-per-game average has dipped from 5.7 in April to below 4.7 in August.
Both Aaron Bates and Josh Reddick made cameo appearances in July and August, but both played reserve roles and both were dispatched back to the minor leagues after a week or two. No other hitter on the Pawtucket roster projects as an above-average major leaguer.
That, though, isn’t the case at the lower levels of the system. A system that has focused primarily on developing pitching prospects might have some of the best young hitters in baseball on its Single-A and Double-A teams.
Part of it comes back to the age-old argument about drafting college players and drafting high school players. College players come with more certainty and more immediate impact, but high school players often come with increased reward to go along with increased risk.
The Red Sox tended to choose college hitters over high school hitters in the first three drafts in under Theo Epstein. David Murphy, Matt Murton, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury and Jed Lowrie all were college hitters drafted in either the first or second round from 2003-05. Red Sox fans know all about Ellsbury, Lowrie and Pedroia, but Murphy, too, is starting in left field for the first-place Texas Rangers.
A year later, though, the Red Sox began to gamble. The first player they selected in the draft in 2006 was high school outfielder Jason Place, then a power-hitting 18-year-old with loads of potential. Three years later, he’s hitting just .221 with two home runs in 68 at-bats at Double-A Portland – but he’s also still 21 years old, younger than Ellsbury was on the day he was drafted.
Place wasn’t the only high-upside hitter the Red Sox drafted out of the high school ranks that year, either. Reddick, Lars Anderson and Ryan Kalish all began their Red Sox careers before they could take a legal drink, and that means the franchise anticipated they would take some time to develop. Reddick made his Red Sox debut in July, but he’s not expected to become a middle-of-the-order contributor at the major-league level until 2011.
Some already are ready to write off the much-hyped Anderson thanks to a season in which he’s hit just .242 with a sub-.400 slugging percent at Double-A Portland. But even Anderson won’t turn 22 years old until the end of September – the same age Kevin Youkilis was when he was trying to conquer the Single-A New York-Penn League.
It’s only natural that a gap developed between the more experienced college hitters from the early Epstein drafts and the more raw high school hitters of the more recent Epstein drafts. That gap now has made its way to the upper levels of the system.
That doesn’t help a Red Sox team fighting for its life in the final six weeks of the major-league season. It does, however, bode well for the future.
“We wish they all could come here immediately and hit .340 and crush balls out of the ballpark,” Johnson said. “That would be super. But the reality is that we have levels for a reason. It’s an adjustment period, learning, when you’re moving to the next level.”
The manager of the Pawtucket Red Sox has overseen the least productive offensive team the Triple-A International League has seen in years. His PawSox have hit just .231 this season and have scored fewer than 400 runs, something no other Triple-A team in either the International League or the Pacific Coast League has managed to accomplish.
Not surprisingly, even with pitchers like Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden on the roster for most of the year, the PawSox went into the final month of their season buried in fifth place in the International League’s North Division.
“No matter what happens these last three and a half, four weeks, as far as development of players in the Boston Red Sox system, this is a positive year,” Johnson said from his office at McCoy Stadium earlier this month. “We’d like to flip the record around a little bit, but that’s the way it goes. …
“We have players that have moved to this level, and that’s going to give them an opportunity to be that much more prepared when the time comes that they have to help our major league team.”
Johnson then paused.
“That’s kind of like what we’re here to do,” he said with more than a hint of facetiousness.
Johnson’s optimism notwithstanding, this year has been one of transition for the Red Sox organization. A system that has pumped out major-league hitters like fastballs at a batting cage has gone silent this season. The Red Sox haven’t able to call for impact reinforcements as their runs-per-game average has dipped from 5.7 in April to below 4.7 in August.
Both Aaron Bates and Josh Reddick made cameo appearances in July and August, but both played reserve roles and both were dispatched back to the minor leagues after a week or two. No other hitter on the Pawtucket roster projects as an above-average major leaguer.
That, though, isn’t the case at the lower levels of the system. A system that has focused primarily on developing pitching prospects might have some of the best young hitters in baseball on its Single-A and Double-A teams.
Part of it comes back to the age-old argument about drafting college players and drafting high school players. College players come with more certainty and more immediate impact, but high school players often come with increased reward to go along with increased risk.
The Red Sox tended to choose college hitters over high school hitters in the first three drafts in under Theo Epstein. David Murphy, Matt Murton, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury and Jed Lowrie all were college hitters drafted in either the first or second round from 2003-05. Red Sox fans know all about Ellsbury, Lowrie and Pedroia, but Murphy, too, is starting in left field for the first-place Texas Rangers.
A year later, though, the Red Sox began to gamble. The first player they selected in the draft in 2006 was high school outfielder Jason Place, then a power-hitting 18-year-old with loads of potential. Three years later, he’s hitting just .221 with two home runs in 68 at-bats at Double-A Portland – but he’s also still 21 years old, younger than Ellsbury was on the day he was drafted.
Place wasn’t the only high-upside hitter the Red Sox drafted out of the high school ranks that year, either. Reddick, Lars Anderson and Ryan Kalish all began their Red Sox careers before they could take a legal drink, and that means the franchise anticipated they would take some time to develop. Reddick made his Red Sox debut in July, but he’s not expected to become a middle-of-the-order contributor at the major-league level until 2011.
Some already are ready to write off the much-hyped Anderson thanks to a season in which he’s hit just .242 with a sub-.400 slugging percent at Double-A Portland. But even Anderson won’t turn 22 years old until the end of September – the same age Kevin Youkilis was when he was trying to conquer the Single-A New York-Penn League.
It’s only natural that a gap developed between the more experienced college hitters from the early Epstein drafts and the more raw high school hitters of the more recent Epstein drafts. That gap now has made its way to the upper levels of the system.
That doesn’t help a Red Sox team fighting for its life in the final six weeks of the major-league season. It does, however, bode well for the future.
“We wish they all could come here immediately and hit .340 and crush balls out of the ballpark,” Johnson said. “That would be super. But the reality is that we have levels for a reason. It’s an adjustment period, learning, when you’re moving to the next level.”
Sunday, July 19, 2009
You say potato, I say left fielder
From Nick Cafardo's baseball notes in Sunday's Boston Globe: "(Double-A outfielder Josh) Reddick is a leadoff man and a very good outfielder who has stroked 12 homers. Could he be a major chip in a deal?"
You say "major chip in a deal." I say "Jason Bay successor."
Red Sox fans and reporters alike always expect the Red Sox to make a big move this time of year, to trade prospects for a player or two who could put them over the top and all but ensure a trip to the World Series. Freddy Sanchez went to Pittsburgh in 2003. Kason Gabbard and David Murphy went to Texas in 2007. Craig Hansen and Brandon Moss went to Pittsburgh in 2008.
Prospects go elsewhere. Impact major leaguers come to Boston. It's just the way life works -- and it's what Cafardo, a Globe staff writer for 20 years, has come to expect.
But maybe that's not what's happening anymore. Maybe Theo Epstein's well-documented affection for his prospects isn't just a front designed to drive prices down on opposing teams' stars. Maybe Reddick -- like Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden and Lars Anderson -- are destined to join Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester, Jonathan Papelbon, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis at Fenway Park rather than be shipped elsewhere.
The Red Sox have a decision to make about Jason Bay. Negotiations have been tabled until the offseason -- and by the time Bay hits the open market, he might be offered more money than the Red Sox are willing to pay him, anyway. But, still, there's a decision to make: Is it going to be Bay that's playing left field for the Red Sox for the next four or five years, or is it going to be someone else? Might that someone else be Reddick?
Reddick won't be ready for the major leagues next season. Like Anderson, he still has zero career at-bats above Double-A. But the path he's on certainly makes him likely to be ready to contribute at the major-league level by 2011 -- at which point he'll just be turning 24 years old.
Check out this comparison of minor-league numbers:
Bay
Age 22 (Single-A): .315/.409/.488 (.896 OPS)
Age 23 (Single-A/Double-A): .283/.376/.470 (.846 OPS)
Age 24 (Triple-A): .303/.410/.541 (.951 OPS)
Having been drafted when he still was 19 years old -- Bay played three seasons of college baseball and was drafted a couple of months shy of his 22nd birthday -- Reddick is taking a more scenic route to the major leagues. But Reddick is putting up numbers that are competitive with anything Bay ever did in the minor leagues.
In terms of slugging percentage, actually, he's well ahead of Bay's pace. It's his on-base percentage where he's had work to do. His focus this season, therefore, has been plate discipline and drawing walks. Here's another quick comparison:
Bay's plate appearances per walk
Age 22: 7.8
Age 23: 8.5
Age 24: 6.8
Reddick's plate appearances per walk
Age 20: 15.5
Age 21: 15.3
This season, with the Red Sox hounding him about his on-base percentage, Reddick resolved to boost his walk total.
"I had about 40 walks last year," he said during spring training. (The total actually was 34.) "Hopefully, I get into the 50 or 60 range and have a batting average and on-base percentage that are a pretty good distance apart instead of just 20 or 30 points apart. Hopefully, I'll hit 3-something and have an on-base percentage of 4-something with the walks in there."
So far, so good.
His plate appearances per walk this season? A Bay-esque 8.9.
He's not hitting 3-something -- he's hitting .263 -- but his batting average and on-base percentage are, in fact, more than 80 points apart thanks to the 27 walks he's already drawn. That hasn't cost him any power, either -- he has 12 home runs in just over 200 at-bats and is slugging .526, not too far off his numbers from last year or the year before.
On top of that, he seems to have played a pretty impressive defensive center field, too, and has six outfield assists so far this season.
If the Red Sox sign Bay to an extension, they'll owe him somewhere around $15 million a year for four or five years. Reddick, on the other hand, won't earn more than $500,000 a year in 2011, 2012 or 2013.
That's why so many teams now are protecting their prospects so fiercely. If the Red Sox can find a one-year stopgap in left field for next season -- Bobby Abreu, perhaps? -- they might do well to hand the reins to Reddick in 2011 and see what he can do.
You say "major chip in a deal." I say "Jason Bay successor."
Red Sox fans and reporters alike always expect the Red Sox to make a big move this time of year, to trade prospects for a player or two who could put them over the top and all but ensure a trip to the World Series. Freddy Sanchez went to Pittsburgh in 2003. Kason Gabbard and David Murphy went to Texas in 2007. Craig Hansen and Brandon Moss went to Pittsburgh in 2008.
Prospects go elsewhere. Impact major leaguers come to Boston. It's just the way life works -- and it's what Cafardo, a Globe staff writer for 20 years, has come to expect.
But maybe that's not what's happening anymore. Maybe Theo Epstein's well-documented affection for his prospects isn't just a front designed to drive prices down on opposing teams' stars. Maybe Reddick -- like Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden and Lars Anderson -- are destined to join Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester, Jonathan Papelbon, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis at Fenway Park rather than be shipped elsewhere.
The Red Sox have a decision to make about Jason Bay. Negotiations have been tabled until the offseason -- and by the time Bay hits the open market, he might be offered more money than the Red Sox are willing to pay him, anyway. But, still, there's a decision to make: Is it going to be Bay that's playing left field for the Red Sox for the next four or five years, or is it going to be someone else? Might that someone else be Reddick?
Reddick won't be ready for the major leagues next season. Like Anderson, he still has zero career at-bats above Double-A. But the path he's on certainly makes him likely to be ready to contribute at the major-league level by 2011 -- at which point he'll just be turning 24 years old.
Check out this comparison of minor-league numbers:
Bay
Age 22 (Single-A): .315/.409/.488 (.896 OPS)
Age 23 (Single-A/Double-A): .283/.376/.470 (.846 OPS)
Age 24 (Triple-A): .303/.410/.541 (.951 OPS)
Reddick
Age 20 (Single-A): .306/.352/.531 (.884 OPS)
Age 21 (Single-A/Double-A): .311/.356/.544 (.899 OPS)
Age 22 (Double-A): .263/.344/.526 (.870 OPS)*
*Season still in progress
Having been drafted when he still was 19 years old -- Bay played three seasons of college baseball and was drafted a couple of months shy of his 22nd birthday -- Reddick is taking a more scenic route to the major leagues. But Reddick is putting up numbers that are competitive with anything Bay ever did in the minor leagues.
In terms of slugging percentage, actually, he's well ahead of Bay's pace. It's his on-base percentage where he's had work to do. His focus this season, therefore, has been plate discipline and drawing walks. Here's another quick comparison:
Bay's plate appearances per walk
Age 22: 7.8
Age 23: 8.5
Age 24: 6.8
Reddick's plate appearances per walk
Age 20: 15.5
Age 21: 15.3
This season, with the Red Sox hounding him about his on-base percentage, Reddick resolved to boost his walk total.
"I had about 40 walks last year," he said during spring training. (The total actually was 34.) "Hopefully, I get into the 50 or 60 range and have a batting average and on-base percentage that are a pretty good distance apart instead of just 20 or 30 points apart. Hopefully, I'll hit 3-something and have an on-base percentage of 4-something with the walks in there."
So far, so good.
His plate appearances per walk this season? A Bay-esque 8.9.
He's not hitting 3-something -- he's hitting .263 -- but his batting average and on-base percentage are, in fact, more than 80 points apart thanks to the 27 walks he's already drawn. That hasn't cost him any power, either -- he has 12 home runs in just over 200 at-bats and is slugging .526, not too far off his numbers from last year or the year before.
On top of that, he seems to have played a pretty impressive defensive center field, too, and has six outfield assists so far this season.
If the Red Sox sign Bay to an extension, they'll owe him somewhere around $15 million a year for four or five years. Reddick, on the other hand, won't earn more than $500,000 a year in 2011, 2012 or 2013.
That's why so many teams now are protecting their prospects so fiercely. If the Red Sox can find a one-year stopgap in left field for next season -- Bobby Abreu, perhaps? -- they might do well to hand the reins to Reddick in 2011 and see what he can do.
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