Red Sox fans have heard plenty about the talents of Casey Kelly in the last year or so, and this spring has been no different. Stories already abound about the maturity and poise the 20-year-old has shown in his first major-league camp.
Fans almost certainly are wondering when they'll see Kelly make his debut at Fenway Park. With the much-ballyhooed prospect probably destined to start at Double-A Portland this spring, a September call-up this season and a major-league job sometime in 2011 doesn't seem beyond the realm of possibility. Even the experts at Baseball America and SoxProspects.com have him ticketed for a mid-2011 arrival in the major leagues.
"A future frontline starter, he's ticketed for Double-A and may not need more than another year in the minors," BA's Jim Callis wrote.
Is that a fair expectation? Just for fun, let's look at the paths traveled by the five best young pitchers in the American League, the type of pitchers the Red Sox would be giddy to compare Kelly one day to:
Zack Greinke (debut at age 20)
Single-A: 16 starts
Double-A: 26 starts
Triple-A: 6 starts
Total: 48 starts, 281 innings
This includes an extra stint in the minor leagues after he'd made more than 50 major-league starts thanks to a social anxiety disorder that cost him most of the 2006 season.
Felix Hernandez (debut at age 19)
Single-A: 24 starts
Double-A: 10 starts
Triple-A: 14 starts
Total: 48 starts, 306 1/3 innings
Jon Lester (debut at age 22)
Single-A: 44 starts
Double-A: 27 starts
Triple-A: 25 starts
Total: 96 starts, 482 innings
This includes, of course, an extra season spent working his way back from cancer treatments, a season that included stops at all three levels.
CC Sabathia (debut at age 20)
Single-A: 26 starts
Double-A: 17 starts
Triple-A: 0 starts
Total: 43 starts, 214 2/3 innings
Justin Verlander (debut at age 22)
Single-A: 13 starts
Double-A: 7 starts
Triple-A: 0 starts
Total: 20 starts, 118 2/3 innings
That does not include the three season Verlander pitched in college, making 46 starts and throwing 335 2/3 innings for Old Dominion. Those three seasons skew his numbers a little bit. Had Kelly gone to Tennessee and pitched there, he'd have come out three years from now in position to move much more quickly through the minor leagues -- but it also would be three years from now.
The other four pitchers all made at least 40 minor-league starts and compiled somewhere between 200 and 400 innings in their initial ascent to the major leagues.
Here's what Kelly has under his belt:
Casey Kelly (just turned 20)
Single-A: 17 starts, 95 innings pitched
Total: 17 starts, 95 innings pitched
That's it.
Because of Kelly's indecision at the onset of his professional career, he's a little bit behind where Greinke and Lester -- both, like Kelly, drafted out of high school -- were at the same age. Greinke made five starts the same year he was drafted and 23 starts the year after that. Lester made one start the same year he was drafted and 21 starts the season after that.
Kelly, of course, played shortstop the same year he was drafted and only spent half of last season pitching rather than playing in the field.
Kelly will start this season at Double-A Portland with an eye on making between 20 and 25 starts and compiling somewhere around 125 innings pitched. He might -- might -- get a call-up in September to expose him to the major leagues, but he also might have hit his innings limit by then and find himself shut down for the season.
(It wouldn't be the first time a top pitching prospect has been shut down to preserve his health.)
He then likely would start the 2011 season at Triple-A Pawtucket and make another 15 or 20 starts, minimum, before the Red Sox started to consider him for a role on the major-league roster. Even then, he'd have to crack a rotation that still will include Lester, Clay Buchholz, John Lackey, Daisuke Matsuzaka and maybe even Josh Beckett, depending on how things shake out.
It's going to be tough to be patient with Kelly. Being patient, though, is going to be the best way to get the best out of him.
Showing posts with label kelly. Show all posts
Showing posts with label kelly. Show all posts
Saturday, February 27, 2010
Sunday, January 24, 2010
Kelly taking attention in stride
The brilliance of the limited media availability during the Red Sox rookie development program is the way it gives some of the team's top prospects a chance to practice an absolutely essential skill for a major-league player: Answering the same questions over and over and over again.
Writers come in waves in search of one-on-ones, but the questions usually all are the same -- especially during the winter when not much changes day to day. Players, then, wind up answering similar questions three times or three dozen times, and part of the unwritten contract with fans and media is that they'll be patient enough to do so.
"We talk about the partnership that needs to be established, that it's part of their role as major-league baseball players to participate in the media," Red Sox director of player development told reporters assembled for the rookie program last Wednesday. "You guys have a job to do, and you guys are here, within your job, to write about them. ... We really impress upon them that it's part of their job and responsibility to be active participants both in the community and with the media."
Consider these two discourses offered by catching prospect Luis Exposito when asked about his competition with fellow catchers Tim Federowicz and Mark Wagner, discourses offered to different writers in different groups no more than 10 minutes apart from one another:
1. "Those two guys are tremendous catchers. They have tremendous tools. We're all after the ultimate goal, to make it to the big leagues. Professionalism, the professionalism of myself, that's all I can worry about."
2. "Those guys, they're tremendous catchers, both of them. They're great players. I try to work hard. They can make me better, and, hopefully, I can make them better. That's all we have, a common goal to try to make it to the major leagues. I try to see it as I'm going to make them better, and they can make me better."
It wasn't going to be word-for-word exact, of course, but it's a sign that Exposito already has started to master the art of handling waves of questions. The second reporter asked almost the exact same question as the first, and yet Exposito answered with the type of thoughtfulness he'd have if he'd never heard the question before in his life.
Exposito, though, doesn't have the high profile that Kelly earned for himself with a spectacular debut as a pitcher in the minor leagues -- along with the added subplot of having to choose between pitching and playing shortstop.
No one really knows Casey Kelly yet. No one has yet written the definitive Kelly story the way one writer wrote the definitive Lars Anderson story a year ago at this time, back when Anderson was the next-big-thing prospect and Kelly was simply a first-round pick who couldn't decide what position he wanted to play.
Anderson, of course, had a rough second season in the minor leagues, and it's tempting to draw a connection between all the hype swirling around him last winter and the way he struggled so badly during the season.
Kelly has had to deal with the same type of hype -- if not more, given the decision he had to make. Kelly talked in September about having to make a decision. Kelly talked in early December about having made his decision. Kelly talked to WEEI earlier this month about what went into his decision. Kelly then talked at the rookie camp last week about, well, what else?
Nothing has changed since December. Kelly still hasn't started his first full season as a pitcher. Still though, the questions keep coming:
On spring training: "I'm competing for a job in Portland. I'm trying to go through spring training and play at the highest level I can, and we'll see what happens. ... You always want to come in and show that you're in good condition, and you're always trying to earn a job. Coming in at top condition and showing off what you can do is the biggest thing."
On his offseason preparation: "It's a lot easier than than last year, trying to train for two positions. This year, it's been great. Knowing what position I'm going to be playing throughout the season has helped my training. I've been training really hard. We started our throwing program a couple of weeks ago, so I'm ready to get the season going."
On potentially jumping to Double-A: "I'm very excited. Obviously, you want to get up to the big leagues as fast as possible, so starting out at Double-A, I hope I start out at Double-A and see what happens. I've worked out hard and have been training hard, so everything else will take care of itself."
On missing playing shortstop: "I'll miss it just like I miss football. Of course, I'm not playing football -- and I'm not playing shortstop. My main focus is on pitching, and that's what I'm going to focus on right now. I'm sure I'll miss it just like I miss watching football on TV, but, at the same time, I'm focused 100 percent with pitching right now."
On hearing his name in trade rumors: "I really didn't know much about any of the trade talks at all. I only found out because my friend was online looking at stuff and heard my name. That's stuff that's out of your hands, out of your control. I'm just trying to focus on what I can control and getting ready for the season."
On the presence of Jose Iglesias as a factor in his decision: "No. He'd just signed when we went to Arizona (for the Arizona Fall League) and then when we came back. I just sat down with the Red Sox, and we had a conversation about what position would be the best for my career and the longest career I was going to have. It came out that pitching was going to be the deciding factor."
On absorbing the decision: "It was definitely a tough decision to make, one of the biggest decisions of my life that I had to make at 20 years old. The year before that, I had to decide whether I wanted to play college football or play professional baseball, so it seems like each year there's been a pretty big question I had to answer."
On which decision was more difficult: "This one definitely was tougher. I knew I loved baseball, and I knew that was what I was going to do. For this one, I had long discussions with my family, and they were going to back me 100 percent with anything that I did. I just came to the sense that I want to be in the big leagues and have a great career in the big leagues, so pitching was that way."
Writers come in waves in search of one-on-ones, but the questions usually all are the same -- especially during the winter when not much changes day to day. Players, then, wind up answering similar questions three times or three dozen times, and part of the unwritten contract with fans and media is that they'll be patient enough to do so.
"We talk about the partnership that needs to be established, that it's part of their role as major-league baseball players to participate in the media," Red Sox director of player development told reporters assembled for the rookie program last Wednesday. "You guys have a job to do, and you guys are here, within your job, to write about them. ... We really impress upon them that it's part of their job and responsibility to be active participants both in the community and with the media."
Consider these two discourses offered by catching prospect Luis Exposito when asked about his competition with fellow catchers Tim Federowicz and Mark Wagner, discourses offered to different writers in different groups no more than 10 minutes apart from one another:
1. "Those two guys are tremendous catchers. They have tremendous tools. We're all after the ultimate goal, to make it to the big leagues. Professionalism, the professionalism of myself, that's all I can worry about."
2. "Those guys, they're tremendous catchers, both of them. They're great players. I try to work hard. They can make me better, and, hopefully, I can make them better. That's all we have, a common goal to try to make it to the major leagues. I try to see it as I'm going to make them better, and they can make me better."
It wasn't going to be word-for-word exact, of course, but it's a sign that Exposito already has started to master the art of handling waves of questions. The second reporter asked almost the exact same question as the first, and yet Exposito answered with the type of thoughtfulness he'd have if he'd never heard the question before in his life.
Exposito, though, doesn't have the high profile that Kelly earned for himself with a spectacular debut as a pitcher in the minor leagues -- along with the added subplot of having to choose between pitching and playing shortstop.
No one really knows Casey Kelly yet. No one has yet written the definitive Kelly story the way one writer wrote the definitive Lars Anderson story a year ago at this time, back when Anderson was the next-big-thing prospect and Kelly was simply a first-round pick who couldn't decide what position he wanted to play.
Anderson, of course, had a rough second season in the minor leagues, and it's tempting to draw a connection between all the hype swirling around him last winter and the way he struggled so badly during the season.
Kelly has had to deal with the same type of hype -- if not more, given the decision he had to make. Kelly talked in September about having to make a decision. Kelly talked in early December about having made his decision. Kelly talked to WEEI earlier this month about what went into his decision. Kelly then talked at the rookie camp last week about, well, what else?
Nothing has changed since December. Kelly still hasn't started his first full season as a pitcher. Still though, the questions keep coming:
On spring training: "I'm competing for a job in Portland. I'm trying to go through spring training and play at the highest level I can, and we'll see what happens. ... You always want to come in and show that you're in good condition, and you're always trying to earn a job. Coming in at top condition and showing off what you can do is the biggest thing."
On his offseason preparation: "It's a lot easier than than last year, trying to train for two positions. This year, it's been great. Knowing what position I'm going to be playing throughout the season has helped my training. I've been training really hard. We started our throwing program a couple of weeks ago, so I'm ready to get the season going."
On potentially jumping to Double-A: "I'm very excited. Obviously, you want to get up to the big leagues as fast as possible, so starting out at Double-A, I hope I start out at Double-A and see what happens. I've worked out hard and have been training hard, so everything else will take care of itself."
On missing playing shortstop: "I'll miss it just like I miss football. Of course, I'm not playing football -- and I'm not playing shortstop. My main focus is on pitching, and that's what I'm going to focus on right now. I'm sure I'll miss it just like I miss watching football on TV, but, at the same time, I'm focused 100 percent with pitching right now."
On hearing his name in trade rumors: "I really didn't know much about any of the trade talks at all. I only found out because my friend was online looking at stuff and heard my name. That's stuff that's out of your hands, out of your control. I'm just trying to focus on what I can control and getting ready for the season."
On the presence of Jose Iglesias as a factor in his decision: "No. He'd just signed when we went to Arizona (for the Arizona Fall League) and then when we came back. I just sat down with the Red Sox, and we had a conversation about what position would be the best for my career and the longest career I was going to have. It came out that pitching was going to be the deciding factor."
On absorbing the decision: "It was definitely a tough decision to make, one of the biggest decisions of my life that I had to make at 20 years old. The year before that, I had to decide whether I wanted to play college football or play professional baseball, so it seems like each year there's been a pretty big question I had to answer."
On which decision was more difficult: "This one definitely was tougher. I knew I loved baseball, and I knew that was what I was going to do. For this one, I had long discussions with my family, and they were going to back me 100 percent with anything that I did. I just came to the sense that I want to be in the big leagues and have a great career in the big leagues, so pitching was that way."
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Westmoreland tops Kelly on BA list
Casey Kelly and Ryan Westmoreland ranked first and second on Baseball America's Top 10 prospects list for the Red Sox released today. No surprise there.
The surprise, though, might be the order in which they were listed. Kelly's sensational first season on the mound garnered him most of the hype -- but the experts at Baseball America like Westmoreland just a little bit better.
"He's a potential 30-30 player who one day could bat third in the Boston lineup," Jim Callis wrote.
Without doing too much copy-and-paste from the Baseball America scouting reports, here's a little bit of what Callis had to say about some of the big names down on the farm:
* Kelly, the No. 2 prospect on the list, has the best fastball, the best curveball, the best changeup and the best control in the organization, and he "may not need more than another year in the minors."
* Josh Reddick vaulted Lars Anderson for the No. 3 spot on the list thanks to his raw power, his speed and the "unbelievable release and accuracy" of his throwing arm in the outfield. His patience at the plate, an issue a year ago, improved in the minor leagues but regressed upon his promotion to the major leagues.
* Anderson, the No. 1 prospect a year ago, fell to No. 4 thanks to a disappointing season at Double-A Portland a year ago. "With the loft in his swing and the leverage in his big frame, Anderson is still the system's best power-hitting prospect," Callis wrote. It's certainly far too early to write off a young slugger who didn't turn 22 until after the minor-league season ended. He'll probably start next season back at Portland.
* It's not hard to see why the Red Sox like Ryan Kalish, the No. 5 prospect on the list. Not only did he hit 24 doubles and 18 home runs last season, but "He manages his at-bats as well as anyone in the system, waiting for pitches he can drive and taking walks if they don't come," Callis wrote. Baseball America expects Kalish to open the season playing with Reddick at Triple-A Pawtucket.
* Most of the players on the list -- Junichi Tazawa, Jose Iglesias, etc. -- are household names by now among Red Sox fans. Derrik Gibson, though, isn't yet one of them. The 20-year-old middle infielder came in at No. 10 on the list after stealing 28 bases in 33 tries a year ago and scoring 54 runs in just 255 at-bats. "Gibson is poised for a breakout 2010 season at (Single-A) Greenville," Callis wrote.
The surprise, though, might be the order in which they were listed. Kelly's sensational first season on the mound garnered him most of the hype -- but the experts at Baseball America like Westmoreland just a little bit better.
"He's a potential 30-30 player who one day could bat third in the Boston lineup," Jim Callis wrote.
Without doing too much copy-and-paste from the Baseball America scouting reports, here's a little bit of what Callis had to say about some of the big names down on the farm:
* Kelly, the No. 2 prospect on the list, has the best fastball, the best curveball, the best changeup and the best control in the organization, and he "may not need more than another year in the minors."
* Josh Reddick vaulted Lars Anderson for the No. 3 spot on the list thanks to his raw power, his speed and the "unbelievable release and accuracy" of his throwing arm in the outfield. His patience at the plate, an issue a year ago, improved in the minor leagues but regressed upon his promotion to the major leagues.
* Anderson, the No. 1 prospect a year ago, fell to No. 4 thanks to a disappointing season at Double-A Portland a year ago. "With the loft in his swing and the leverage in his big frame, Anderson is still the system's best power-hitting prospect," Callis wrote. It's certainly far too early to write off a young slugger who didn't turn 22 until after the minor-league season ended. He'll probably start next season back at Portland.
* It's not hard to see why the Red Sox like Ryan Kalish, the No. 5 prospect on the list. Not only did he hit 24 doubles and 18 home runs last season, but "He manages his at-bats as well as anyone in the system, waiting for pitches he can drive and taking walks if they don't come," Callis wrote. Baseball America expects Kalish to open the season playing with Reddick at Triple-A Pawtucket.
* Most of the players on the list -- Junichi Tazawa, Jose Iglesias, etc. -- are household names by now among Red Sox fans. Derrik Gibson, though, isn't yet one of them. The 20-year-old middle infielder came in at No. 10 on the list after stealing 28 bases in 33 tries a year ago and scoring 54 runs in just 255 at-bats. "Gibson is poised for a breakout 2010 season at (Single-A) Greenville," Callis wrote.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Casey Kelly and financial flexibility
(The second in an ongoing series.)
Let's assume John Lackey busts. Let's assume the triceps tendinitis and the elbow inflammation both recur. Let's assume Lackey turns into the next Mike Hampton, a pitcher whose salaries generally would have been more useful being flushed down the toilet all at once rather than being mailed out in two-week increments.
Had the Red Sox traded half their farm system -- let's assume it would have taken Clay Buchholz and Casey Kelly to go get Roy Halladay, not to mention a similar contract to the one signed by Lackey -- a bust like Hampton would have been a franchise-crippling disaster.
* In 2010, Buchholz and Lackey will earn a combined $18 million. According to Fangraphs -- these numbers should be taken with a huge grain of salt, but they're at least a starting point -- Lackey and Buchholz were worth $17.6 and $5.5 million, respectively, last season, and Buchholz wasn't even called up until after the All-Star break.
* In 2013, Kelly and Lackey will earn a combined $18 million. If Kelly can pitch 130 innings with an ERA of 4.00, he'll be worth significantly more than his major-league-minimum salary. Even if Lackey busts, the production of Kelly at little cost would go a long way toward making up the difference.
By signing Lackey as a free agent rather than trading prospects for Halladay, the Red Sox have covered themselves. Buchholz still is in the organization. Kelly still is in the organization. Junichi Tazawa and Michael Bowden still are in the organization. Felix Doubront, a 22-year-old who had a 3.35 ERA at Double-A Portland last season, still is in the organization. Stolmy Pimentel, a 19-year-old who had a 3.82 ERA at Single-A Greenville last season, still is in the organization.
Had the Red Sox emptied their farm system for Halladay, an ill-timed injury would have forced them back out on the market to overpay for another pitcher to take his place. By hanging onto their prospects, though, the Red Sox either can install a young pitcher in place of Lackey or swing the type of deal the Phillies made for Cliff Lee last July.
Let's even take it a step farther. Let's assume either Ryan Kalish or Josh Reddick is ready to play left field for the Red Sox by the time the 2011 season starts. Mike Cameron, of course, has agreed to a two-year contract that presumably will pay him $7.5 or $8 million in 2011.
All that means, though, is that the Red Sox will be paying Cameron, Kalish and Reddick a combined $8.5 or $9 million in 2011. How they sort out playing time -- the guess here is that a 38-year-old Cameron would be a super-sub fourth outfielder with the ability to spell J.D. Drew in right field, Jacoby Ellsbury in center field and either Kalish or Reddick in left field -- doesn't really matter. The major-league-minimum contracts of both Kalish and Reddick would allow the Red Sox to overpay a little bit to have Cameron be their backup outfielder.
Theo Epstein doesn't just build his organization on a steady flow of prospects because it's fun to see young players develop. He does so because it gives him a low-cost alternative should a hefty investment -- such as the risky five-year contract to which he's about to sign Lackey -- result in nothing but a bust.
If the worst-case scenario for Lackey becomes a reality, the Red Sox might be out $80 million. They won't, though, have to spend another $80 million to replace him.
Let's assume John Lackey busts. Let's assume the triceps tendinitis and the elbow inflammation both recur. Let's assume Lackey turns into the next Mike Hampton, a pitcher whose salaries generally would have been more useful being flushed down the toilet all at once rather than being mailed out in two-week increments.
Had the Red Sox traded half their farm system -- let's assume it would have taken Clay Buchholz and Casey Kelly to go get Roy Halladay, not to mention a similar contract to the one signed by Lackey -- a bust like Hampton would have been a franchise-crippling disaster.
* In 2010, Buchholz and Lackey will earn a combined $18 million. According to Fangraphs -- these numbers should be taken with a huge grain of salt, but they're at least a starting point -- Lackey and Buchholz were worth $17.6 and $5.5 million, respectively, last season, and Buchholz wasn't even called up until after the All-Star break.
* In 2013, Kelly and Lackey will earn a combined $18 million. If Kelly can pitch 130 innings with an ERA of 4.00, he'll be worth significantly more than his major-league-minimum salary. Even if Lackey busts, the production of Kelly at little cost would go a long way toward making up the difference.
By signing Lackey as a free agent rather than trading prospects for Halladay, the Red Sox have covered themselves. Buchholz still is in the organization. Kelly still is in the organization. Junichi Tazawa and Michael Bowden still are in the organization. Felix Doubront, a 22-year-old who had a 3.35 ERA at Double-A Portland last season, still is in the organization. Stolmy Pimentel, a 19-year-old who had a 3.82 ERA at Single-A Greenville last season, still is in the organization.
Had the Red Sox emptied their farm system for Halladay, an ill-timed injury would have forced them back out on the market to overpay for another pitcher to take his place. By hanging onto their prospects, though, the Red Sox either can install a young pitcher in place of Lackey or swing the type of deal the Phillies made for Cliff Lee last July.
Let's even take it a step farther. Let's assume either Ryan Kalish or Josh Reddick is ready to play left field for the Red Sox by the time the 2011 season starts. Mike Cameron, of course, has agreed to a two-year contract that presumably will pay him $7.5 or $8 million in 2011.
All that means, though, is that the Red Sox will be paying Cameron, Kalish and Reddick a combined $8.5 or $9 million in 2011. How they sort out playing time -- the guess here is that a 38-year-old Cameron would be a super-sub fourth outfielder with the ability to spell J.D. Drew in right field, Jacoby Ellsbury in center field and either Kalish or Reddick in left field -- doesn't really matter. The major-league-minimum contracts of both Kalish and Reddick would allow the Red Sox to overpay a little bit to have Cameron be their backup outfielder.
Theo Epstein doesn't just build his organization on a steady flow of prospects because it's fun to see young players develop. He does so because it gives him a low-cost alternative should a hefty investment -- such as the risky five-year contract to which he's about to sign Lackey -- result in nothing but a bust.
If the worst-case scenario for Lackey becomes a reality, the Red Sox might be out $80 million. They won't, though, have to spend another $80 million to replace him.
Saturday, November 14, 2009
ETAs of the top Red Sox prospects
As the Red Sox weigh their options for the winter -- signing Jason Bay long-term, for example, or trading prospects for Adrian Gonzalez or Roy Halladay -- they'll do so with an eye on the farm system that has pumped out as much talent as any over the last five years or so.
Jon Lester already is one of the best pitchers in the major leagues, and Clay Buchholz is poised to join him. Jonathan Papelbon is one of the best relief pitchers in the major leagues, and Daniel Bard is poised to join him. Dustin Pedroia is one of the best middle infielders in the major leagues, and Jed Lowrie -- well, Lowrie probably needs to stay healthy for a full season first.
But the fact remains that the Red Sox will make all of their decisions with their farm system in mind -- and that means it's worth looking ahead at when some of those prospects might make their debuts at Fenway Park:
Lars Anderson, 1B
Who he is: If you haven't heard of Anderson, you were living under a rock a year ago at this time. If you haven't given up on Anderson, you're a rare breed among Red Sox fans. The first baseman saw his numbers plummet across the board in his first season : He hit .233 and slugged just .345, and given the publicity he received during the Mark Teixeira saga, most Red Sox fans wrote him off as yet another bust.
When he'll get to Boston: Midseason call-up, 2011.
Why he matters: His age, first and foremost -- he only turned 22 after the minor-league season ended, and that means he's still got plenty of room to grow. Heck, it's worth comparing him with the first baseman after whom the Red Sox now seem to lust and what he did as a 21-year-old playing in Double-A three years after he first was drafted:
* Anderson: .233 batting, .328 on-base, .345 slugging
* Gonzalez: .269 batting, .327 on-base, .365 slugging
A year later, Gonzalez hit .304/.364/.457 as a 22-year-old at Triple-A Oklahoma and made his first cameo in the major leagues. The Red Sox almost certainly will start Anderson back in Double-A and give him a chance to show last season was the type of fluke his career numbers make it seem it was.
Jose Iglesias, SS
Who he is: Seeing as how he's already being touted as the solution to the Red Sox revolving door at shortstop, it's important to remember he's not yet 20 years old. Still, though, his glove reportedly already is major-league ready, and if Texas' 21-year-old shortstop Elvis Andrus is named Rookie of the Year in the coming days, some will jump to the conclusion that Iglesias might only be a year or so away from the Red Sox roster.
Again, though, it's worth looking closer at the comparison. Andrus was 16 years old when he made his professional debut, hitting .295 and OBP'ing .377 for the Atlanta Braves' Rookie-level team in the Gulf Coast League. He was 19 years old when he played a full season at Double-A Frisco in the Rangers' organization. Iglesias, on the other hand, will be 20 years old when he makes his professional debut -- his Arizona Fall League tenure aside -- and still needs to take the minor leagues level-by-level.
A more apt comparison might be Orlando Cabrera, who made his pro debut in the Expos' system as a 19-year-old in 1994 and got his first cup of coffee in the major leagues as a 22-year-old in 1997.
When he'll get to Boston: Opening Day, 2012. (The Red Sox signed him to a major-league contract -- and that means he only can be optioned to the minor leagues three times -- in 2010, 2011 and 2012.)
Why he matters: It's not as if the Red Sox are eager in any way to trade away Jed Lowrie. His injury history has torpedoed his value, and the Red Sox still believe Lowrie can be their everyday shortstop. But the presence of Iglesias deep in the farm system means the Red Sox can think short-term at the position -- insert obligatory Marco Scutaro reference here -- with an eye on Iglesias taking over at the position in three or four years.
Ryan Kalish, OF
Who he is: He's the next big name to play his way onto the radar of casual Red Sox fans. After a miserable start at Double-A Portland, Kalish OPS'ed .855 in July, .867 in August and 1.280 in 26 at-bats in September. (He hit three home runs in the final week of the season.)
He even stole a team-best 14 bases and was caught just three times, and he split time defensively between center field and left field.
(With a little bit of luck there should be a Q&A with Kalish in this space in the next week.)
When he'll get to Boston: Opening Day, 2011.
Why he matters: Kalish and Josh Reddick -- see below -- both impact how the Red Sox will approach their negotiations with Jason Bay. The negotiations thus far have been quiet, but it's safe to assume that the Red Sox are more reluctant to push the envelope in terms of years than in terms of dollars. The 31-year-old Bay already is a subpar defensive left fielder, and the presence of Kalish and Reddick in the system means the Red Sox might view Bay as the heir to David Ortiz as their designated hitter. If that's something that Bay can't accept, he's probably going to sign elsewhere.
Kalish, in fact, has a chance to become an above-average defensive center fielder -- and he could prompt Jacoby Ellsbury to follow the Carl Crawford career track, moving to left field to give the Red Sox an exceptional defensive outfield.
Casey Kelly, P
Who he is: One of the top pitching prospects in the game, Kelly had a 1.12 ERA in nine starts at Single-A Greenville and a 3.09 ERA in eight starts after a promotion to Single-A Salem. Presuming the Red Sox convince him his future is as a starting pitcher, he'll start next season at Double-A Portland and climb the ladder as quickly as his results will let him.
But he's still just 20 years old, and that means he'll need a little bit of time to let his repertoire take shape. He throws a fastball around 92 miles per hour -- and he has room to grow -- with a hard curveball, a potential plus pitch, and a changeup.
When he'll get to Boston: Midseason call-up, 2011.
Why he matters: Simply put, he's the best prospect in the Red Sox system, and he's going to have to be part of any deal the Red Sox make for Gonzalez or Halladay or Felix Hernandez -- especially if the Red Sox make Clay Buchholz off-limits. If the Red Sox see him as a future star in the mold of Jon Lester, they might not be willing to make the type of impact trade some want them to make.
Josh Reddick, OF
Who he is: Reddick made his major-league debut last season -- he even hit a couple of home runs -- but what's most important was the way he played in the minor leagues. He went into last season with an eye on improving his approach at the plate and working more walks, and that's just what he did. He walked just 34 times in more than 500 plate appearances in 2008, and he walked 36 times in fewer than 400 plate appearances in 2009.
His batting average and slugging percentage both suffered, but for a player with Reddick's ability, it might just be a step back that eventually yields two or three giant steps forward.
When he'll get to Boston: Been there, done that.
Why he matters: He'll start next season at Triple-A Pawtucket no matter what happens with Bay. It's almost unfathomable that the Red Sox would be satisfied with replacing a middle-of-the-order bat with a 23-year-old rookie. (When Dustin Pedroia took over full-time at second base three seasons ago, don't forget, he was replacing Mark Loretta and didn't need to do much more than play solid defense and hit the ball every once in a while.)
But his presence and the way the Red Sox feel about him will impact the Bay negotiations. Not only would he likely relegate Bay to designated-hitter duties if he emerged as a potential star, but he and Kalish also give the Red Sox reason to believe that a stopgap solution of Bobby Abreu or Mike Cameron or Josh Willingham with an eye on a younger player taking over in 2011 might be a better more than paying Bay $15 million over the next four or five seasons.
Ryan Westmoreland, OF
Who he is: If he can stop running into walls and breaking his collarbone -- word from the ProJo is that he's doing just fine -- the Rhode Island native likely will open next season at Single-A Greenville and continue his march toward the major leagues. He hit .296 and OBP'ed .401 in his pro debut a year ago, walking 38 times in fewer than 300 plate appearances and ranking fourth in the New York-Penn League in OPS (.885).
When he'll get to Boston: Midseason call-up, 2013.
Why he matters: Like Kelly, at this point, he's a key chip in any trade for an impact bat like Gonzalez or arm like Hernandez. He's essentially irrelevant in any discussions about the future makeup of the Red Sox roster because his arrival is so far off -- it took Grady Sizemore, a frequent basis of comparison for Westmoreland, four years to reach the major leagues, and he didn't miss time with injuries the way Westmoreland has.
But his raw skills have to be tantalizing for teams like the Blue Jays or the Padres. With his power potential -- he slugged .484 for the Spinners this season, including seven home runs -- his upside is higher than that of Jacoby Ellsbury. You'd better believe his name is coming up in trade discussions, and his availability might determine what sort of player the Red Sox can acquire in any trade.
Jon Lester already is one of the best pitchers in the major leagues, and Clay Buchholz is poised to join him. Jonathan Papelbon is one of the best relief pitchers in the major leagues, and Daniel Bard is poised to join him. Dustin Pedroia is one of the best middle infielders in the major leagues, and Jed Lowrie -- well, Lowrie probably needs to stay healthy for a full season first.
But the fact remains that the Red Sox will make all of their decisions with their farm system in mind -- and that means it's worth looking ahead at when some of those prospects might make their debuts at Fenway Park:
Lars Anderson, 1B
Who he is: If you haven't heard of Anderson, you were living under a rock a year ago at this time. If you haven't given up on Anderson, you're a rare breed among Red Sox fans. The first baseman saw his numbers plummet across the board in his first season : He hit .233 and slugged just .345, and given the publicity he received during the Mark Teixeira saga, most Red Sox fans wrote him off as yet another bust.
When he'll get to Boston: Midseason call-up, 2011.
Why he matters: His age, first and foremost -- he only turned 22 after the minor-league season ended, and that means he's still got plenty of room to grow. Heck, it's worth comparing him with the first baseman after whom the Red Sox now seem to lust and what he did as a 21-year-old playing in Double-A three years after he first was drafted:
* Anderson: .233 batting, .328 on-base, .345 slugging
* Gonzalez: .269 batting, .327 on-base, .365 slugging
A year later, Gonzalez hit .304/.364/.457 as a 22-year-old at Triple-A Oklahoma and made his first cameo in the major leagues. The Red Sox almost certainly will start Anderson back in Double-A and give him a chance to show last season was the type of fluke his career numbers make it seem it was.
Jose Iglesias, SS
Who he is: Seeing as how he's already being touted as the solution to the Red Sox revolving door at shortstop, it's important to remember he's not yet 20 years old. Still, though, his glove reportedly already is major-league ready, and if Texas' 21-year-old shortstop Elvis Andrus is named Rookie of the Year in the coming days, some will jump to the conclusion that Iglesias might only be a year or so away from the Red Sox roster.
Again, though, it's worth looking closer at the comparison. Andrus was 16 years old when he made his professional debut, hitting .295 and OBP'ing .377 for the Atlanta Braves' Rookie-level team in the Gulf Coast League. He was 19 years old when he played a full season at Double-A Frisco in the Rangers' organization. Iglesias, on the other hand, will be 20 years old when he makes his professional debut -- his Arizona Fall League tenure aside -- and still needs to take the minor leagues level-by-level.
A more apt comparison might be Orlando Cabrera, who made his pro debut in the Expos' system as a 19-year-old in 1994 and got his first cup of coffee in the major leagues as a 22-year-old in 1997.
When he'll get to Boston: Opening Day, 2012. (The Red Sox signed him to a major-league contract -- and that means he only can be optioned to the minor leagues three times -- in 2010, 2011 and 2012.)
Why he matters: It's not as if the Red Sox are eager in any way to trade away Jed Lowrie. His injury history has torpedoed his value, and the Red Sox still believe Lowrie can be their everyday shortstop. But the presence of Iglesias deep in the farm system means the Red Sox can think short-term at the position -- insert obligatory Marco Scutaro reference here -- with an eye on Iglesias taking over at the position in three or four years.
Ryan Kalish, OF
Who he is: He's the next big name to play his way onto the radar of casual Red Sox fans. After a miserable start at Double-A Portland, Kalish OPS'ed .855 in July, .867 in August and 1.280 in 26 at-bats in September. (He hit three home runs in the final week of the season.)
He even stole a team-best 14 bases and was caught just three times, and he split time defensively between center field and left field.
(With a little bit of luck there should be a Q&A with Kalish in this space in the next week.)
When he'll get to Boston: Opening Day, 2011.
Why he matters: Kalish and Josh Reddick -- see below -- both impact how the Red Sox will approach their negotiations with Jason Bay. The negotiations thus far have been quiet, but it's safe to assume that the Red Sox are more reluctant to push the envelope in terms of years than in terms of dollars. The 31-year-old Bay already is a subpar defensive left fielder, and the presence of Kalish and Reddick in the system means the Red Sox might view Bay as the heir to David Ortiz as their designated hitter. If that's something that Bay can't accept, he's probably going to sign elsewhere.
Kalish, in fact, has a chance to become an above-average defensive center fielder -- and he could prompt Jacoby Ellsbury to follow the Carl Crawford career track, moving to left field to give the Red Sox an exceptional defensive outfield.
Casey Kelly, P
Who he is: One of the top pitching prospects in the game, Kelly had a 1.12 ERA in nine starts at Single-A Greenville and a 3.09 ERA in eight starts after a promotion to Single-A Salem. Presuming the Red Sox convince him his future is as a starting pitcher, he'll start next season at Double-A Portland and climb the ladder as quickly as his results will let him.
But he's still just 20 years old, and that means he'll need a little bit of time to let his repertoire take shape. He throws a fastball around 92 miles per hour -- and he has room to grow -- with a hard curveball, a potential plus pitch, and a changeup.
When he'll get to Boston: Midseason call-up, 2011.
Why he matters: Simply put, he's the best prospect in the Red Sox system, and he's going to have to be part of any deal the Red Sox make for Gonzalez or Halladay or Felix Hernandez -- especially if the Red Sox make Clay Buchholz off-limits. If the Red Sox see him as a future star in the mold of Jon Lester, they might not be willing to make the type of impact trade some want them to make.
Josh Reddick, OF
Who he is: Reddick made his major-league debut last season -- he even hit a couple of home runs -- but what's most important was the way he played in the minor leagues. He went into last season with an eye on improving his approach at the plate and working more walks, and that's just what he did. He walked just 34 times in more than 500 plate appearances in 2008, and he walked 36 times in fewer than 400 plate appearances in 2009.
His batting average and slugging percentage both suffered, but for a player with Reddick's ability, it might just be a step back that eventually yields two or three giant steps forward.
When he'll get to Boston: Been there, done that.
Why he matters: He'll start next season at Triple-A Pawtucket no matter what happens with Bay. It's almost unfathomable that the Red Sox would be satisfied with replacing a middle-of-the-order bat with a 23-year-old rookie. (When Dustin Pedroia took over full-time at second base three seasons ago, don't forget, he was replacing Mark Loretta and didn't need to do much more than play solid defense and hit the ball every once in a while.)
But his presence and the way the Red Sox feel about him will impact the Bay negotiations. Not only would he likely relegate Bay to designated-hitter duties if he emerged as a potential star, but he and Kalish also give the Red Sox reason to believe that a stopgap solution of Bobby Abreu or Mike Cameron or Josh Willingham with an eye on a younger player taking over in 2011 might be a better more than paying Bay $15 million over the next four or five seasons.
Ryan Westmoreland, OF
Who he is: If he can stop running into walls and breaking his collarbone -- word from the ProJo is that he's doing just fine -- the Rhode Island native likely will open next season at Single-A Greenville and continue his march toward the major leagues. He hit .296 and OBP'ed .401 in his pro debut a year ago, walking 38 times in fewer than 300 plate appearances and ranking fourth in the New York-Penn League in OPS (.885).
When he'll get to Boston: Midseason call-up, 2013.
Why he matters: Like Kelly, at this point, he's a key chip in any trade for an impact bat like Gonzalez or arm like Hernandez. He's essentially irrelevant in any discussions about the future makeup of the Red Sox roster because his arrival is so far off -- it took Grady Sizemore, a frequent basis of comparison for Westmoreland, four years to reach the major leagues, and he didn't miss time with injuries the way Westmoreland has.
But his raw skills have to be tantalizing for teams like the Blue Jays or the Padres. With his power potential -- he slugged .484 for the Spinners this season, including seven home runs -- his upside is higher than that of Jacoby Ellsbury. You'd better believe his name is coming up in trade discussions, and his availability might determine what sort of player the Red Sox can acquire in any trade.
Friday, October 23, 2009
Jed Hoyer and Adrian Gonzalez
With it all but official that Jed Hoyer will make the move to San Diego, the question immediately arises: Will the Padres' new general manager use his best trading chip to restock what Baseball America ranked as the second-worst collection of talent in the major leagues -- and will the farm system he used to supervise be the farm system he targets?
Yes, he will. It makes too much sense for him not to.
The Red Sox and Padres already were a natural fit for an Adrian Gonzalez trade this winter. Gonzalez is under contract through 2011 -- assuming his team exercises a bargain-basement $5.6 million option -- and ranked 10th in the major leagues in Wins Above Replacement, a Baseball Prospectus statistic that takes into consideration both hitting and fielding. Albert Pujols is the only first baseman in the game with a signficantly better WAR number than Gonzalez.
Bill Smith -- a New Hampshire native, by the way -- had to trade Johan Santana immediately upon taking over the job of general manager with the Minnesota Twins two years ago. Hoyer, in much the same way, will have to make trading Gonzalez his first order of business.
No, trading your best player doesn't seem like the best way for a struggling team to get back into contention -- and it certainly doesn't seem like the best way for a new general manager to ingratiate himself with his new fan base.
But the Padres aren't exactly close to competing. Jake Peavy has been traded away. Kevin Correia might be the team's Opening Day starting pitcher. Kevin Kouzmanoff's 18 home runs were second-best on the team behind Gonzalez. Chase Headley was the only other hitter with an OPS+ better than 100 -- in other words, he was the only other above-average hitter to get to the plate more than 350 times this season.
Funny thing: The team's top prospect, 23-year-old slugger Kyle Blanks, posted the following numbers on his climb up the ladder:
Single-A (adv.): .301 batting/.380 on-base/.540 slugging
Double-A: .325 batting/.404 on-base/.514 slugging
Triple-A: .283 batting/.393 on-base/.485 slugging
Oh, and he's a first baseman.
You'd better believe that if it wasn't part of the conversation during the farewell lunch, Hoyer left behind a note for Theo Epstein describing exactly the type of package it would take to pry Gonzalez away from him.
Epstein, tangentially, has a couple of choices this offseason:
1. He can stand pat and hope his team still is good enough to compete with the Rays and Yankees, essentially punting a season but conserving his resources until after he's out from under the contracts of Mike Lowell and David Ortiz.
2. He can reload and go for it again.
A move for Gonzalez, particularly if it didn't cost the Red Sox prized starting pitcher Clay Buchholz, would match last winter's Mark Teixeira signing by the Yankees and, particularly if Jason Bay was persuaded to re-sign, give the Red Sox a lineup every bit as ferocious as the lineup in the Bronx -- with OPS+ numbers from 2009:
1. Ellsbury, CF (L) -- 96
2. Pedroia, 2B (R) -- 108
3. Martinez, C (S) -- 121
4. Youkilis, 3B (R) -- 143
5. Ad. Gonzalez, 1B (L) -- 163
6. Bay, LF (R) -- 132
7. Drew, RF (L) -- 131
8. Ortiz/Lowell, DH (L/R) -- 100/104
9. Al. Gonzalez/Lowrie, SS (R/S) -- Who cares?
Gonzalez even is a full two years younger than Teixeira and thus would be a better bet for the type of lucrative long-term deal he'll command when he hits the open market after the 2011 season.
He'd immediately make the Red Sox lineup both younger and, well, better -- both at Fenway Park and on the road. He'd allow Epstein to check off pretty much the only item on his offseason to-do list other than maybe sign a veteran starting pitcher on the cheap to provide insurance for Tim Wakefield.
All it would cost would be the jewels of the Red Sox farm system.
Casey Kelly would have to be included. Ryan Westmoreland would have to be included. Josh Reddick would have to be included. Ryan Kalish would have to be included. Daniel Bard might even have to be included -- something you'd think the Red Sox would do if they don't see him as a starting pitcher in the future.
That's a deal both the Padres and the Red Sox would make.
1. The Red Sox would make that deal because their resources allow them to focus perpetually on the short term. Neither Kelly nor Westmoreland, easily the team's two top prospects, are going to be factors in the major leagues until 2012 even if they started next season at Double-A and spent just one season at each level of the minor-league ladder. Rather than waiting for Kelly, for example, the Red Sox could trade him away and throw truckloads of money at Felix Hernandez when he hits the free-agent market after the 2011 season at the ripe old age of 25.
(And because of the resources they devote to the draft, the Red Sox can focus on ready-for-prime-time talent next June, no matter how expensive, in an effort to restock the shelves in time for 2012 or 2013.)
2. The Padres would make that deal because they're not going to compete without restocking their farm system -- and they're far enough away that they don't need prospects who are almost ready for the major leagues.
Consider the Bartolo Colon trade from back in 2002. The Indians, whose run of dominance in the American League Central seemed to have come to an end, traded Colon to the Montreal Expos, a team in danger of imminent contraction and thus a team with a desperation to win right away, sent back a package that included journeyman major leaguer Lee Stevens and three prospects:
* 23-year-old pitcher Cliff Lee had spent most of the season at Double-A and had just made his major-league debut. He wouldn't make 30 starts in the major leagues for the first time until 2004 but would win a Cy Young Award in 2008.
* 21-year-old infielder Brandon Phillips had just been promoted to Triple-A and actually would spend the next three seasons in Triple-A before the Indians tired of him and shipped him off to Cincinnati -- where he hit 30 home runs in 2007.
* 19-year-old outfielder Grady Sizemore split his season between Single-A Brevard County and Single-A Kinston, and he didn't even make an appearance in Double-A until the following season. He made his first All-Star team in 2006 -- four years after the trade.
Bad teams, as we've again learned with the news that Steve Phillips once offered a 19-year-old David Wright to Toronto for Jose Cruz Jr., can improve themselves by swapping established players for teenagers. The Indians lost 94 games in 2003 but won 93 games in 2005 and came within one win of the World Series in 2007 -- and every single one of their fans would do the Colon trade all over again if given a chance.
Hoyer isn't going to go all out to win next season or even the season after that -- and, by then, Gonzalez likely will be gone. Hoyer has a massive rebuilding project on his hands, and it's not a rebuilding project in which Gonzalez can assist.
If Hoyer could trade for a pitcher in his early 20s with an electric arm (Bard) and an outfielder in his teens with breathtaking athleticism (Westmoreland) and add Kalish or Kelly or Reddick to the package, he'd be doing himself a favor.
And if the Red Sox could trade for a lefthanded power hitter who's still three years shy of his 30th birthday, they'd be setting themselves up for another run at the World Series both next season and the season after that.
A team with their resources doesn't need to think too much farther down the road than that.
Yes, he will. It makes too much sense for him not to.
The Red Sox and Padres already were a natural fit for an Adrian Gonzalez trade this winter. Gonzalez is under contract through 2011 -- assuming his team exercises a bargain-basement $5.6 million option -- and ranked 10th in the major leagues in Wins Above Replacement, a Baseball Prospectus statistic that takes into consideration both hitting and fielding. Albert Pujols is the only first baseman in the game with a signficantly better WAR number than Gonzalez.
Bill Smith -- a New Hampshire native, by the way -- had to trade Johan Santana immediately upon taking over the job of general manager with the Minnesota Twins two years ago. Hoyer, in much the same way, will have to make trading Gonzalez his first order of business.
No, trading your best player doesn't seem like the best way for a struggling team to get back into contention -- and it certainly doesn't seem like the best way for a new general manager to ingratiate himself with his new fan base.
But the Padres aren't exactly close to competing. Jake Peavy has been traded away. Kevin Correia might be the team's Opening Day starting pitcher. Kevin Kouzmanoff's 18 home runs were second-best on the team behind Gonzalez. Chase Headley was the only other hitter with an OPS+ better than 100 -- in other words, he was the only other above-average hitter to get to the plate more than 350 times this season.
Funny thing: The team's top prospect, 23-year-old slugger Kyle Blanks, posted the following numbers on his climb up the ladder:
Single-A (adv.): .301 batting/.380 on-base/.540 slugging
Double-A: .325 batting/.404 on-base/.514 slugging
Triple-A: .283 batting/.393 on-base/.485 slugging
Oh, and he's a first baseman.
You'd better believe that if it wasn't part of the conversation during the farewell lunch, Hoyer left behind a note for Theo Epstein describing exactly the type of package it would take to pry Gonzalez away from him.
Epstein, tangentially, has a couple of choices this offseason:
1. He can stand pat and hope his team still is good enough to compete with the Rays and Yankees, essentially punting a season but conserving his resources until after he's out from under the contracts of Mike Lowell and David Ortiz.
2. He can reload and go for it again.
A move for Gonzalez, particularly if it didn't cost the Red Sox prized starting pitcher Clay Buchholz, would match last winter's Mark Teixeira signing by the Yankees and, particularly if Jason Bay was persuaded to re-sign, give the Red Sox a lineup every bit as ferocious as the lineup in the Bronx -- with OPS+ numbers from 2009:
1. Ellsbury, CF (L) -- 96
2. Pedroia, 2B (R) -- 108
3. Martinez, C (S) -- 121
4. Youkilis, 3B (R) -- 143
5. Ad. Gonzalez, 1B (L) -- 163
6. Bay, LF (R) -- 132
7. Drew, RF (L) -- 131
8. Ortiz/Lowell, DH (L/R) -- 100/104
9. Al. Gonzalez/Lowrie, SS (R/S) -- Who cares?
Gonzalez even is a full two years younger than Teixeira and thus would be a better bet for the type of lucrative long-term deal he'll command when he hits the open market after the 2011 season.
He'd immediately make the Red Sox lineup both younger and, well, better -- both at Fenway Park and on the road. He'd allow Epstein to check off pretty much the only item on his offseason to-do list other than maybe sign a veteran starting pitcher on the cheap to provide insurance for Tim Wakefield.
All it would cost would be the jewels of the Red Sox farm system.
Casey Kelly would have to be included. Ryan Westmoreland would have to be included. Josh Reddick would have to be included. Ryan Kalish would have to be included. Daniel Bard might even have to be included -- something you'd think the Red Sox would do if they don't see him as a starting pitcher in the future.
That's a deal both the Padres and the Red Sox would make.
1. The Red Sox would make that deal because their resources allow them to focus perpetually on the short term. Neither Kelly nor Westmoreland, easily the team's two top prospects, are going to be factors in the major leagues until 2012 even if they started next season at Double-A and spent just one season at each level of the minor-league ladder. Rather than waiting for Kelly, for example, the Red Sox could trade him away and throw truckloads of money at Felix Hernandez when he hits the free-agent market after the 2011 season at the ripe old age of 25.
(And because of the resources they devote to the draft, the Red Sox can focus on ready-for-prime-time talent next June, no matter how expensive, in an effort to restock the shelves in time for 2012 or 2013.)
2. The Padres would make that deal because they're not going to compete without restocking their farm system -- and they're far enough away that they don't need prospects who are almost ready for the major leagues.
Consider the Bartolo Colon trade from back in 2002. The Indians, whose run of dominance in the American League Central seemed to have come to an end, traded Colon to the Montreal Expos, a team in danger of imminent contraction and thus a team with a desperation to win right away, sent back a package that included journeyman major leaguer Lee Stevens and three prospects:
* 23-year-old pitcher Cliff Lee had spent most of the season at Double-A and had just made his major-league debut. He wouldn't make 30 starts in the major leagues for the first time until 2004 but would win a Cy Young Award in 2008.
* 21-year-old infielder Brandon Phillips had just been promoted to Triple-A and actually would spend the next three seasons in Triple-A before the Indians tired of him and shipped him off to Cincinnati -- where he hit 30 home runs in 2007.
* 19-year-old outfielder Grady Sizemore split his season between Single-A Brevard County and Single-A Kinston, and he didn't even make an appearance in Double-A until the following season. He made his first All-Star team in 2006 -- four years after the trade.
Bad teams, as we've again learned with the news that Steve Phillips once offered a 19-year-old David Wright to Toronto for Jose Cruz Jr., can improve themselves by swapping established players for teenagers. The Indians lost 94 games in 2003 but won 93 games in 2005 and came within one win of the World Series in 2007 -- and every single one of their fans would do the Colon trade all over again if given a chance.
Hoyer isn't going to go all out to win next season or even the season after that -- and, by then, Gonzalez likely will be gone. Hoyer has a massive rebuilding project on his hands, and it's not a rebuilding project in which Gonzalez can assist.
If Hoyer could trade for a pitcher in his early 20s with an electric arm (Bard) and an outfielder in his teens with breathtaking athleticism (Westmoreland) and add Kalish or Kelly or Reddick to the package, he'd be doing himself a favor.
And if the Red Sox could trade for a lefthanded power hitter who's still three years shy of his 30th birthday, they'd be setting themselves up for another run at the World Series both next season and the season after that.
A team with their resources doesn't need to think too much farther down the road than that.
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Iglesias goes deep in Arizona Fall League
Here's what ESPN's Arizona Fall League blogger had to say about the Mesa Solar Sox debut of shortstop Jose Iglesias, the Cuban defector signed to a major-league contract this summer:
Jose Iglesias ... already looks like a future Gold Glove candidate at short, with tremendous actions at the position. The ball just disappears into his glove. He's also had a couple of chances to show some range. However, the bat is still a work in progress. He squared three balls up on the barrel on Opening Day, but they didn't really go anywhere. First impressions are that he could get the bat knocked out of his hands right now against advanced pitching.
That note was posted on Thursday -- and in Iglesias' second game, he hit a two-run home run in the fifth inning against Mets prospect Josh Stinson. Iglesias has three hits in his first five at-bats with the Mesa Solar Sox with a double and a home run, and he's even walked twice.
So far, so good.
(Even as the hype machine revs up, however, it's important to remember that he's still just 19 years old and thus at least two or three years away from being ready to play in the major leagues.)
***
One other note: Red Sox scouting director Jason McLeod gave an interesting answer in a chat session in WEEI.com's Virtual Press Box this week. A reader asked if top prospect Casey Kelly might appear in the major leagues by next September.
McLeod's response: "I think that would be a lot to ask of Casey considering he hasn’t had a full season of pitching under his belt. He is advanced for his age but as with all of our pitchers, there will be a plan laid out for him in terms of innings, usage, etc."
Well, that's interesting. As recently as late September, Kelly still was acting as if a decision had yet to be made. He split last season between pitching and playing shortstop, and while he didn't want to wait too long to make his decision, he certainly sounded as if he wasn't there yet.
"This year was eye-opening," he said in a session with the press at Fenway Park. "Playing both, it doesn't really help either side from the pitching standpoint or the shortstop standpoint. ... We'll get it done a little faster so I can get ready for pitching or get ready for shortstop because the workouts are totally different for position players and pitchers."
McLeod's answer, though, makes it sound as though Kelly and the Red Sox already have made their decision -- the only decision they could make. Kelly had a 1.12 ERA in nine starts at Single-A Greenville and a 3.09 ERA in eight starts at Single-A Salem along with a combined strikeout-to-walk ratio of better than 4.5. As a pitcher, he's far and away the top prospect in the organization.
Jose Iglesias ... already looks like a future Gold Glove candidate at short, with tremendous actions at the position. The ball just disappears into his glove. He's also had a couple of chances to show some range. However, the bat is still a work in progress. He squared three balls up on the barrel on Opening Day, but they didn't really go anywhere. First impressions are that he could get the bat knocked out of his hands right now against advanced pitching.
That note was posted on Thursday -- and in Iglesias' second game, he hit a two-run home run in the fifth inning against Mets prospect Josh Stinson. Iglesias has three hits in his first five at-bats with the Mesa Solar Sox with a double and a home run, and he's even walked twice.
So far, so good.
(Even as the hype machine revs up, however, it's important to remember that he's still just 19 years old and thus at least two or three years away from being ready to play in the major leagues.)
***
One other note: Red Sox scouting director Jason McLeod gave an interesting answer in a chat session in WEEI.com's Virtual Press Box this week. A reader asked if top prospect Casey Kelly might appear in the major leagues by next September.
McLeod's response: "I think that would be a lot to ask of Casey considering he hasn’t had a full season of pitching under his belt. He is advanced for his age but as with all of our pitchers, there will be a plan laid out for him in terms of innings, usage, etc."
Well, that's interesting. As recently as late September, Kelly still was acting as if a decision had yet to be made. He split last season between pitching and playing shortstop, and while he didn't want to wait too long to make his decision, he certainly sounded as if he wasn't there yet.
"This year was eye-opening," he said in a session with the press at Fenway Park. "Playing both, it doesn't really help either side from the pitching standpoint or the shortstop standpoint. ... We'll get it done a little faster so I can get ready for pitching or get ready for shortstop because the workouts are totally different for position players and pitchers."
McLeod's answer, though, makes it sound as though Kelly and the Red Sox already have made their decision -- the only decision they could make. Kelly had a 1.12 ERA in nine starts at Single-A Greenville and a 3.09 ERA in eight starts at Single-A Salem along with a combined strikeout-to-walk ratio of better than 4.5. As a pitcher, he's far and away the top prospect in the organization.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Top prospect Kelly nearing big decision
Casey Kelly really can't make up his mind.
"From a pitching standpoint, I looked at it as playing football," he said. (Kelly was a highly touted recruit as a quarterback as well as a baseball player.) "You play once a week. You have a week to prepare. I liked having four days to mentally prepare for a game. If it was coming off a long bus trip, you had time to relax and get your thoughts together."
Relaxing. Mental preparation. Spreading it out.
That's the appeal of pitching.
The appeal of hitting, then?
"At shortstop, I loved playing every day," he said. "Playing every day and hitting is something I love to do."
Playing every day.
Right.
For all of the success Kelly had on the mound this season -- and he had tremendous success earning Red Sox Minor League Pitcher of the Year honors -- it doesn't sound as though he's decided his future necessarily is as a pitcher.
He'll even participate in the Arizona Fall League with the Mesa Solar Sox as a shortstop and a part-time third baseman. Being part of the team's taxi squad means he'll get some extra at-bats while playing only two days a week.
(One naturally has to wonder how that will help him make his decision: Getting to hit but only playing in games twice a week? It's the best of both worlds!)
The Red Sox haven't been subtle about their desires. The award bestowed upon Kelly on Tuesday only emphasized the role in which they see their former first-round draft pick.
It's hard to blame them, either.
Kelly had a 1.12 ERA in nine starts at Single-A Greenville and a 3.09 ERA in eight starts after a promotion to Single-A Salem. By the middle of the summer, he'd leapfrogged names like Lars Anderson and Ryan Kalish and cemented himself as the top prospect in the organization.
He then hit .224 and OBP'ed .305 in 151 plate appearances at Single-A Greenville, striking out more than twice as often as he walked.
"To split it up between pitching and hitting was a task," he said, "but having two seasons was one I really enjoyed."
Kelly and the Red Sox likely will have to make a decision quickly after the conclusion of the Arizona Fall League's season. (The Solar Sox play their final game on Nov. 19.) A year ago, he began his preparations to pitch in December, and he'll have to focus those preparations even more if he's going to endure a full season on the mound and all the innings that go with that.
"This year was eye-opening," he said. "Playing both, it doesn't really help either side from the pitching standpoint or the shortstop standpoint. ... We'll get it done a little faster so I can get ready for pitching or get ready for shortstop because the workouts are totally different for position players and pitchers."
He didn't make it sound like the organization had much say in the matter, either.
"(I'll do) whatever I want to do in my heart," he said. "I followed that from the beginning. When I got drafted, I could have played football at Tennessee and followed what I wanted to do with my heart. I think I'll do the same with this decision."
"From a pitching standpoint, I looked at it as playing football," he said. (Kelly was a highly touted recruit as a quarterback as well as a baseball player.) "You play once a week. You have a week to prepare. I liked having four days to mentally prepare for a game. If it was coming off a long bus trip, you had time to relax and get your thoughts together."
Relaxing. Mental preparation. Spreading it out.
That's the appeal of pitching.
The appeal of hitting, then?
"At shortstop, I loved playing every day," he said. "Playing every day and hitting is something I love to do."
Playing every day.
Right.
For all of the success Kelly had on the mound this season -- and he had tremendous success earning Red Sox Minor League Pitcher of the Year honors -- it doesn't sound as though he's decided his future necessarily is as a pitcher.
He'll even participate in the Arizona Fall League with the Mesa Solar Sox as a shortstop and a part-time third baseman. Being part of the team's taxi squad means he'll get some extra at-bats while playing only two days a week.
(One naturally has to wonder how that will help him make his decision: Getting to hit but only playing in games twice a week? It's the best of both worlds!)
The Red Sox haven't been subtle about their desires. The award bestowed upon Kelly on Tuesday only emphasized the role in which they see their former first-round draft pick.
It's hard to blame them, either.
Kelly had a 1.12 ERA in nine starts at Single-A Greenville and a 3.09 ERA in eight starts after a promotion to Single-A Salem. By the middle of the summer, he'd leapfrogged names like Lars Anderson and Ryan Kalish and cemented himself as the top prospect in the organization.
He then hit .224 and OBP'ed .305 in 151 plate appearances at Single-A Greenville, striking out more than twice as often as he walked.
"To split it up between pitching and hitting was a task," he said, "but having two seasons was one I really enjoyed."
Kelly and the Red Sox likely will have to make a decision quickly after the conclusion of the Arizona Fall League's season. (The Solar Sox play their final game on Nov. 19.) A year ago, he began his preparations to pitch in December, and he'll have to focus those preparations even more if he's going to endure a full season on the mound and all the innings that go with that.
"This year was eye-opening," he said. "Playing both, it doesn't really help either side from the pitching standpoint or the shortstop standpoint. ... We'll get it done a little faster so I can get ready for pitching or get ready for shortstop because the workouts are totally different for position players and pitchers."
He didn't make it sound like the organization had much say in the matter, either.
"(I'll do) whatever I want to do in my heart," he said. "I followed that from the beginning. When I got drafted, I could have played football at Tennessee and followed what I wanted to do with my heart. I think I'll do the same with this decision."
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