When J.D. Drew sat out against tough lefties last season, Red Sox manager Terry Francona normally pointed out that he had to get at-bats for Rocco Baldelli and thus was doing so more for the benefit of Baldelli than for Drew.
We'll find out this season if he was telling the truth.
Baldelli is gone. Jeremy Hermida is the new fourth outfielder -- and Hermida is just as lefthanded as Drew is.
Francona still will have to find at-bats for Hermida. The former first-round draft pick still has enormous potential, and the Red Sox wouldn't have traded for him if they didn't think he had something to offer.
Those at-bats, though, will have to come mostly against righthanded pitchers. Hermida spelling Drew against lefties makes pretty much no sense if you look at their career splits:
Against lefties
Drew: .262/.366/.438 (.804)
Hermida: .237/.321/.376 (.697)
Against righties
Drew: .292/.407/.528 (.935)
Hermida: .274/.351/.441 (.792)
Drew, then, is going to have to hit against lefties more often than he has in his first three seasons with the Red Sox.
How will he do? Here's a look at his recent history against lefties:
2004 (167 at-bats): .287/.408/.521 (.929)
2005 (68 at-bats): .235/.416/.279 (.695)
2006 (119 at-bats): .244/.338/.378 (.716)
2007 (116 at-bats): .224/.285/.353 (.638)
2008 (94 at-bats): .284/.426/.500 (.926)
2009 (114 at-bats): .272/.381/.482 (.863)
It's hard to find any sort of consistent pattern. In some ways, the more at-bats he's had against lefties, the better -- except for 2007, a year that was miserable for him all the way around until his grand slam against Cleveland.
He has, for what it's worth, OPS'ed better than .850 against lefties in each of the last two seasons.
The above numbers do have to be taken with a grain of salt. Francona has often picked his spots to use Drew against lefties. He might not have that luxury this season.
For what it's worth, Drew is 2-for-10 (.200) with five strikeouts against CC Sabathia but 13-for-36 (.361) with 13 strikeouts against Andy Pettitte, having drawn one total walk against the Yankees' two best lefthanded pitchers.
Showing posts with label hermida. Show all posts
Showing posts with label hermida. Show all posts
Friday, February 12, 2010
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
How often should Ortiz play?
"David's a big -- I don't want to say question mark because he's not a question mark, but when David hits, we're different. Same thing when he doesn't hit. When you have a guy who is a full-time DH, he has to hit.'' -- Red Sox manager Terry Francona
Talk about disparate numbers: Here's David Ortiz before and after the All-Star break last season, the most difficult season of his Red Sox career:
Before: .733 OPS
After: .866 OPS
Talk about disparate numbers: Here's David Ortiz against lefthanded pitching and against righthanded pitching last season:
LHP: .716 OPS
RHP: .828 OPS
Against lefties, in other words, he was his first-half self. Against righties, he was his second-half self -- a well above-average hitter capable of hitting in the middle of the Red Sox lineup.
The question begs itself: At what point do the Red Sox start considering playing Ortiz only against righthanded pitchers and sitting him against lefties?
The answer: When a better option presents itself.
The Red Sox have brought righty Bill Hall and lefty Jeremy Hermida on board to provide a little thump off the bench, and righty Mike Lowell -- if he's not traded, anyway -- and switch-hitter Jason Varitek remain options as well.
Terry Francona will have plenty of choices as he makes out his lineups against both righties and lefties this season:
Against righthanded pitching
Hall: .589 last season/.725 career
Hermida: .786 last season/.792 career
Lowell: .784 last season/.798 career
Ortiz: .828 last season/.964 career
Varitek: .666 last season/.759 career
Best option: Ortiz. That seems clear.
Against lefthanded pitching
Hall: .606 last season/.810 career
Hermida: .601 last season/.697 career
Lowell: .867 last season/.850 career
Ortiz: .716 last season/.819 career
Varitek: .807 last season/.828 career
Best option: Lowell. That seems clear, too.
If Lowell is traded, though: Would you believe it's Varitek?
If the goal is to keep Victor Martinez as fresh as possible, it might make sense for him to play first base or serve as designated hitter against lefties as often as possible. If Varitek plays exclusively against lefties, it would mean Ortiz probably would sit against most lefties.
If last season's numbers are to believed, though, replacing Ortiz with Varitek against lefthanded pitchers, either as the catcher with Martinez DH'ing or as the DH himself, would mean a significant upgrade at the plate.
Talk about disparate numbers: Here's David Ortiz before and after the All-Star break last season, the most difficult season of his Red Sox career:
Before: .733 OPS
After: .866 OPS
Talk about disparate numbers: Here's David Ortiz against lefthanded pitching and against righthanded pitching last season:
LHP: .716 OPS
RHP: .828 OPS
Against lefties, in other words, he was his first-half self. Against righties, he was his second-half self -- a well above-average hitter capable of hitting in the middle of the Red Sox lineup.
The question begs itself: At what point do the Red Sox start considering playing Ortiz only against righthanded pitchers and sitting him against lefties?
The answer: When a better option presents itself.
The Red Sox have brought righty Bill Hall and lefty Jeremy Hermida on board to provide a little thump off the bench, and righty Mike Lowell -- if he's not traded, anyway -- and switch-hitter Jason Varitek remain options as well.
Terry Francona will have plenty of choices as he makes out his lineups against both righties and lefties this season:
Against righthanded pitching
Hall: .589 last season/.725 career
Hermida: .786 last season/.792 career
Lowell: .784 last season/.798 career
Ortiz: .828 last season/.964 career
Varitek: .666 last season/.759 career
Best option: Ortiz. That seems clear.
Against lefthanded pitching
Hall: .606 last season/.810 career
Hermida: .601 last season/.697 career
Lowell: .867 last season/.850 career
Ortiz: .716 last season/.819 career
Varitek: .807 last season/.828 career
Best option: Lowell. That seems clear, too.
If Lowell is traded, though: Would you believe it's Varitek?
If the goal is to keep Victor Martinez as fresh as possible, it might make sense for him to play first base or serve as designated hitter against lefties as often as possible. If Varitek plays exclusively against lefties, it would mean Ortiz probably would sit against most lefties.
If last season's numbers are to believed, though, replacing Ortiz with Varitek against lefthanded pitchers, either as the catcher with Martinez DH'ing or as the DH himself, would mean a significant upgrade at the plate.
Friday, January 15, 2010
Hermida, Magadan getting to know each other
Newly acquired Red Sox outfielder Jeremy Hermida had his first session with hitting coach Dave Magadan on Thursday. It was far too early for Magadan to start offering any tips. Instead, it was a pretty basic getting-to-know-you session to kick off what the Red Sox have to hope will be a productive relationship.
"I'm sure he's seen some film and watched me swing," Hermida said on Thursday night before the Boston baseball writers' dinner. "I've talked to him on the phone, but getting a chance to shake his hand and meet him face-to-face is always good. We did that today -- and talked hitting, talking about things I think about, things I go through, and the process that goes on with my swing so he can learn my swing inside and out."
Magadan now will be charged with turning Hermida back into the hitter so many believed he would be.
The former first-round draft pick never lived up to his potential with the Marlins, hitting 18 home runs with an OPS of .870 three seasons ago but seeing a dramatic downturn in his numbers after that. His slugging percentage in 2009 (.392) was more than 100 points lower than his slugging percentage in 2007 (.501).
He's still young enough -- he won't turn 26 until the end of the month -- that the Red Sox are willing to invest in him as a fourth outfielder with tremendous upside. To tap into that upside, though, he and Magadan have to figure out what's been going wrong.
One session wasn't enough to do that, certainly.
"We haven't gotten there yet," Hermida said. "That'll probably be a little bit in spring training. But I'm all for it. If you ever stop learning this game, you've got a big problem. No matter where you're at, going into spring training, every year, everybody's got something to learn."
One thing the Red Sox do is preach patience at the plate, making pitchers work, grinding out at-bats. In talking about Jacoby Ellsbury last season, Magadan said he doesn't want his hitters swinging at the first pitch unless they have a history of doing damage on the first pitch. Kevin Youkilis has a green light to swing at the first pitch because he typically does so much damage. Mike Lowell, too, is a terrific first-pitch hitter. Ellsbury, on the other hand, needed to be more patient because he wasn't doing enough damage on the first pitch.
Hermida came through the minor leagues as a patient hitter. In a full season at Double-A as a 21-year-old, he accumulated more walks (111) than strikeouts (89), a remarkable feat for a hitter so young. He routinely averages more than 4.0 pitches per plate appearance and certainly fits the grind-it-out identity of the Red Sox lineup.
"I've been a guy that's walked a good amount in my career," he said. "I've gotten away from that at certain times, trying to learn to be an aggressive hitter. Sometimes I've been actually too patient, and that's gotten me in trouble a little bit. But coming up through the minor leagues and my first couple of years, I've been a guy that's been a pretty good on-base percentage guy. I know that's what they preach around here, and I think that's part of the reason why, hopefully, I'm going to fit in around here."
But Hermida actually is a terrific first-pitch hitter, too. He has a career OPS of 1.051 when swinging at the first pitch, more than 100 points higher than the major-league average. His career OPS within the first three pitches of an at-bat (.842) is significantly higher than his career OPS beyond the third pitch of an at-bat (.708).
(One would expect any hitter to have more success early in the count than later on the count. The above discrepancy, though, is even more pronounced than that of Youkilis -- .924 early in the count, .843 late in the count.)
Hermida is a patient hitter who, like most, does most of his damage early in the count. That might explain why his swinging percentages have swung so wildly back and forth since his first full season:
Out-of-zone swing percentage
2006: 19 percent
2007: 22.2 percent
2008: 27.8 percent
2009: 23.9 percent
Zone swing percentage
2006: 64.1 percent
2007: 64.2 percent
2008: 59.6 percent
2009: 61.7 percent
Between 2007 and 2008, Hermida swung at more pitches out of the strike zone and fewer pitches in the strike zone. It shouldn't be surprising his production nose-dived the way it did.
Finding a happy medium is an ongoing process.
"I don't know if there's necessarily a rule of thumb to follow," he said. "If there was, I think everybody would do it. It's a tough thing, and Mags, he's got some guys on this team like Youk and (Dustin) Pedroia that do it pretty well, so, hopefully, I can pick a little bit off them and use it for myself."
"I'm sure he's seen some film and watched me swing," Hermida said on Thursday night before the Boston baseball writers' dinner. "I've talked to him on the phone, but getting a chance to shake his hand and meet him face-to-face is always good. We did that today -- and talked hitting, talking about things I think about, things I go through, and the process that goes on with my swing so he can learn my swing inside and out."
Magadan now will be charged with turning Hermida back into the hitter so many believed he would be.
The former first-round draft pick never lived up to his potential with the Marlins, hitting 18 home runs with an OPS of .870 three seasons ago but seeing a dramatic downturn in his numbers after that. His slugging percentage in 2009 (.392) was more than 100 points lower than his slugging percentage in 2007 (.501).
He's still young enough -- he won't turn 26 until the end of the month -- that the Red Sox are willing to invest in him as a fourth outfielder with tremendous upside. To tap into that upside, though, he and Magadan have to figure out what's been going wrong.
One session wasn't enough to do that, certainly.
"We haven't gotten there yet," Hermida said. "That'll probably be a little bit in spring training. But I'm all for it. If you ever stop learning this game, you've got a big problem. No matter where you're at, going into spring training, every year, everybody's got something to learn."
One thing the Red Sox do is preach patience at the plate, making pitchers work, grinding out at-bats. In talking about Jacoby Ellsbury last season, Magadan said he doesn't want his hitters swinging at the first pitch unless they have a history of doing damage on the first pitch. Kevin Youkilis has a green light to swing at the first pitch because he typically does so much damage. Mike Lowell, too, is a terrific first-pitch hitter. Ellsbury, on the other hand, needed to be more patient because he wasn't doing enough damage on the first pitch.
Hermida came through the minor leagues as a patient hitter. In a full season at Double-A as a 21-year-old, he accumulated more walks (111) than strikeouts (89), a remarkable feat for a hitter so young. He routinely averages more than 4.0 pitches per plate appearance and certainly fits the grind-it-out identity of the Red Sox lineup.
"I've been a guy that's walked a good amount in my career," he said. "I've gotten away from that at certain times, trying to learn to be an aggressive hitter. Sometimes I've been actually too patient, and that's gotten me in trouble a little bit. But coming up through the minor leagues and my first couple of years, I've been a guy that's been a pretty good on-base percentage guy. I know that's what they preach around here, and I think that's part of the reason why, hopefully, I'm going to fit in around here."
But Hermida actually is a terrific first-pitch hitter, too. He has a career OPS of 1.051 when swinging at the first pitch, more than 100 points higher than the major-league average. His career OPS within the first three pitches of an at-bat (.842) is significantly higher than his career OPS beyond the third pitch of an at-bat (.708).
(One would expect any hitter to have more success early in the count than later on the count. The above discrepancy, though, is even more pronounced than that of Youkilis -- .924 early in the count, .843 late in the count.)
Hermida is a patient hitter who, like most, does most of his damage early in the count. That might explain why his swinging percentages have swung so wildly back and forth since his first full season:
Out-of-zone swing percentage
2006: 19 percent
2007: 22.2 percent
2008: 27.8 percent
2009: 23.9 percent
Zone swing percentage
2006: 64.1 percent
2007: 64.2 percent
2008: 59.6 percent
2009: 61.7 percent
Between 2007 and 2008, Hermida swung at more pitches out of the strike zone and fewer pitches in the strike zone. It shouldn't be surprising his production nose-dived the way it did.
Finding a happy medium is an ongoing process.
"I don't know if there's necessarily a rule of thumb to follow," he said. "If there was, I think everybody would do it. It's a tough thing, and Mags, he's got some guys on this team like Youk and (Dustin) Pedroia that do it pretty well, so, hopefully, I can pick a little bit off them and use it for myself."
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Hermida, Kotchman have options left
As the Red Sox assemble their 25-man roster for Opening Day -- months away, to be sure, but has that ever stopped us before? -- here's one thing to remember: Both new acquisition Jeremy Hermida and July acquisition Casey Kotchman have minor-league options remaining.
If the Red Sox lose out on Jason Bay and still want to go after a righthanded-hitting outfielder or two, they wouldn't necessarily have to non-tender (or trade) Hermida. If the Red Sox acquired an infielder like Adrian Gonzalez, they wouldn't necessarily have to non-tender (or trade) Kotchman.
It's easy to forget given how fast both Hermida and Kotchman established themselves in the major leagues, but it's also a byproduct of how fast both established themselves in the major leagues. Every major-league player, don't forget, has three minor-league options that teams still can exercise as long as that player has fewer than five years of major-league service time.
Both Kotchman and Hermida have between three and four years of accrued major-league service time.
(One more technicality: If a player spends fewer than 20 days in the minor leagues in a season, he has not burned a minor-league option.)
Hermida jumped from Double-A to the major leagues in August of 2005 and was added to the Marlins' 40-man roster for the first time at that point. He hasn't spent any significant time in the minor leagues since -- and thus hasn't burned an option. Technically, all three of his minor-league options still are available, but he can't be optioned without his permission once he's hit five full season, so he really has two minor-league options left.
Kotchman was added to the Angels' 40-man roster in May of 2004 when first baseman Darin Erstad was placed on the disabled list. He was shipped back to the minor leagues a month later upon the return of Erstad -- his first minor-league option. He then opened the 2005 season in Triple-A -- his second major-league option -- before being recalled for good in late May.
He hasn't spent more than 20 days in the minor leagues in any season since -- meaning his third minor-league option still is available should the Red Sox want to exercise it.
The Marlins couldn't exactly afford to pay Hermida $4 million -- his likely arbitration award -- if he wasn't going to be in their starting outfield. The Red Sox, on the other hand, wouldn't mind paying Hermida $4 million to start the season in Triple-A Pawtucket as part of a long-term investment in a former first-round pick with all the physical skills they could want.
Think of it this way: If Hermida becomes the hitter the Red Sox believe he can be, there's no reason he couldn't replace David Ortiz as the team's regular designated hitter in 2011 even if Jason Bay re-ups. Hermida also becomes perfect J.D. Drew insurance in the event the 34-year-old isn't as healthy next season as he was last season: The Red Sox could stash him in Pawtucket and call him up if and when Drew needs to spend some time on the 15-day disabled list.
Rocco Baldelli might be back. Josh Willingham -- or another righthanded-hitting outfielder -- might be acquired. It would appear the Red Sox would run into a roster crunch with the players they've assembled.
But because Hermida and Kotchman both established themselves in the major leagues so quickly, they both can be sent to the minor leagues next spring if that's what helps the Red Sox fit everyone in.
If the Red Sox lose out on Jason Bay and still want to go after a righthanded-hitting outfielder or two, they wouldn't necessarily have to non-tender (or trade) Hermida. If the Red Sox acquired an infielder like Adrian Gonzalez, they wouldn't necessarily have to non-tender (or trade) Kotchman.
It's easy to forget given how fast both Hermida and Kotchman established themselves in the major leagues, but it's also a byproduct of how fast both established themselves in the major leagues. Every major-league player, don't forget, has three minor-league options that teams still can exercise as long as that player has fewer than five years of major-league service time.
Both Kotchman and Hermida have between three and four years of accrued major-league service time.
(One more technicality: If a player spends fewer than 20 days in the minor leagues in a season, he has not burned a minor-league option.)
Hermida jumped from Double-A to the major leagues in August of 2005 and was added to the Marlins' 40-man roster for the first time at that point. He hasn't spent any significant time in the minor leagues since -- and thus hasn't burned an option. Technically, all three of his minor-league options still are available, but he can't be optioned without his permission once he's hit five full season, so he really has two minor-league options left.
Kotchman was added to the Angels' 40-man roster in May of 2004 when first baseman Darin Erstad was placed on the disabled list. He was shipped back to the minor leagues a month later upon the return of Erstad -- his first minor-league option. He then opened the 2005 season in Triple-A -- his second major-league option -- before being recalled for good in late May.
He hasn't spent more than 20 days in the minor leagues in any season since -- meaning his third minor-league option still is available should the Red Sox want to exercise it.
The Marlins couldn't exactly afford to pay Hermida $4 million -- his likely arbitration award -- if he wasn't going to be in their starting outfield. The Red Sox, on the other hand, wouldn't mind paying Hermida $4 million to start the season in Triple-A Pawtucket as part of a long-term investment in a former first-round pick with all the physical skills they could want.
Think of it this way: If Hermida becomes the hitter the Red Sox believe he can be, there's no reason he couldn't replace David Ortiz as the team's regular designated hitter in 2011 even if Jason Bay re-ups. Hermida also becomes perfect J.D. Drew insurance in the event the 34-year-old isn't as healthy next season as he was last season: The Red Sox could stash him in Pawtucket and call him up if and when Drew needs to spend some time on the 15-day disabled list.
Rocco Baldelli might be back. Josh Willingham -- or another righthanded-hitting outfielder -- might be acquired. It would appear the Red Sox would run into a roster crunch with the players they've assembled.
But because Hermida and Kotchman both established themselves in the major leagues so quickly, they both can be sent to the minor leagues next spring if that's what helps the Red Sox fit everyone in.
Friday, November 6, 2009
Cameron an option with Hermida in fold
The signing of Jeremy Hermida might be a lottery ticket, a flier on a former first-round draft pick with untapped talent. But it also presents questions about how the Red Sox might put together their outfield should Jason Bay skip town.
J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury and Jeremy Hermida all are lefthanded hitters -- and that might be a little more lefty-heavy than Theo Epstein or Terry Francona want their outfield to be.
The possibility of a platoon situation, though, remains viable.
That's where Mike Cameron comes into play.
The 36-year-old outfielder almost certainly will not return to Milwaukee now that the Brewers acquired Carlos Gomez from the Twins. Cameron has been a starting outfielder for most of his career -- and an All-Star-caliber outfielder at that -- but his age and the depressed free-agent market means he might not be able to be picky with his next destination.
Boston could be that destination.
Cameron, first and foremost, is a terrific defensive outfielder. His Ultimate Zone Rating (10.0) ranked him 12th in the major leagues last season, and his Fielding Bible Plus-Minus (plus-5) ranked him 16th in the major leagues. A year ago, he had an UZR of 11.3 and a plus-minus of 12.
He'd be a substantial defensive upgrade over Bay, an outfielder who, no matter what his agent says, is well below average at getting to the ball.
But Cameron also is a righthanded hitter with a career OPS of .859 against lefthanded pitching -- something the Red Sox desperately need if they don't bring back Bay. They can't go up against CC Sabathia with four or five lefties in their lineup -- not, at least, if they plan on scoring any runs.
He also probably would enjoy taking aim at the Green Monster, at least as far as his HitTrackerOnline.com home-run chart is concerned:
Cameron is a career center fielder but, given his skills, probably could adapt either to left field or right field. He could platoon with Hermida in left field -- especially on the road, where defense is more of an issue than at Fenway Park. (Hermida has been a below-average outfielder throughout his career.)
He also could spell Drew in right field against lefthanded pitching without costing the Red Sox anything in the way of defense. Here's how it might break down:
Against LHP at home: Cameron LF, Ellsbury CF, Drew RF
(Hermida could spell Drew every once in a while.)
Against RHP at home: Hermida LF, Ellsbury CF, Drew RF
Against LHP on the road: Cameron LF, Ellsbury CF, Drew RF
(Hermida again could spell Drew sometimes.)
Against RHP on the road: Cameron LF, Ellsbury CF, Drew RF
(You could make an argument that Cameron belongs in center field more than Ellsbury given their disparate numbers. According to MLB Trade Rumors, Cameron has professed a desire to play center field with whichever team lands him, and there are those who believe Ellsbury's future lies in left field. But Ellsbury still has all the tools to be an elite center fielder, and if that's what the Red Sox see him being, he needs to keep playing out there to learn how to read the ball off the bat better.)
Cameron wouldn't exactly hit cleanup in the Red Sox lineup the way Bay did. He might not even hit sixth or seventh.
But preventing runs is just as important at scoring runs, and Cameron can prevent runs in the outfield with the best of them. Signing Cameron, in fact, might give the Red Sox one of the best defensive outfields in the major leagues -- and if he can hit the ball hard against lefthanded pitching, he might be just the right fit.
J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury and Jeremy Hermida all are lefthanded hitters -- and that might be a little more lefty-heavy than Theo Epstein or Terry Francona want their outfield to be.
The possibility of a platoon situation, though, remains viable.
That's where Mike Cameron comes into play.
The 36-year-old outfielder almost certainly will not return to Milwaukee now that the Brewers acquired Carlos Gomez from the Twins. Cameron has been a starting outfielder for most of his career -- and an All-Star-caliber outfielder at that -- but his age and the depressed free-agent market means he might not be able to be picky with his next destination.
Boston could be that destination.
Cameron, first and foremost, is a terrific defensive outfielder. His Ultimate Zone Rating (10.0) ranked him 12th in the major leagues last season, and his Fielding Bible Plus-Minus (plus-5) ranked him 16th in the major leagues. A year ago, he had an UZR of 11.3 and a plus-minus of 12.
He'd be a substantial defensive upgrade over Bay, an outfielder who, no matter what his agent says, is well below average at getting to the ball.
But Cameron also is a righthanded hitter with a career OPS of .859 against lefthanded pitching -- something the Red Sox desperately need if they don't bring back Bay. They can't go up against CC Sabathia with four or five lefties in their lineup -- not, at least, if they plan on scoring any runs.
He also probably would enjoy taking aim at the Green Monster, at least as far as his HitTrackerOnline.com home-run chart is concerned:
Cameron is a career center fielder but, given his skills, probably could adapt either to left field or right field. He could platoon with Hermida in left field -- especially on the road, where defense is more of an issue than at Fenway Park. (Hermida has been a below-average outfielder throughout his career.)
He also could spell Drew in right field against lefthanded pitching without costing the Red Sox anything in the way of defense. Here's how it might break down:
Against LHP at home: Cameron LF, Ellsbury CF, Drew RF
(Hermida could spell Drew every once in a while.)
Against RHP at home: Hermida LF, Ellsbury CF, Drew RF
Against LHP on the road: Cameron LF, Ellsbury CF, Drew RF
(Hermida again could spell Drew sometimes.)
Against RHP on the road: Cameron LF, Ellsbury CF, Drew RF
(You could make an argument that Cameron belongs in center field more than Ellsbury given their disparate numbers. According to MLB Trade Rumors, Cameron has professed a desire to play center field with whichever team lands him, and there are those who believe Ellsbury's future lies in left field. But Ellsbury still has all the tools to be an elite center fielder, and if that's what the Red Sox see him being, he needs to keep playing out there to learn how to read the ball off the bat better.)
Cameron wouldn't exactly hit cleanup in the Red Sox lineup the way Bay did. He might not even hit sixth or seventh.
But preventing runs is just as important at scoring runs, and Cameron can prevent runs in the outfield with the best of them. Signing Cameron, in fact, might give the Red Sox one of the best defensive outfields in the major leagues -- and if he can hit the ball hard against lefthanded pitching, he might be just the right fit.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Why Hermida might not want to unpack too fast
The Red Sox acquired outfielder Jeremy Hermida from the Florida Marlins on Thursday for a relative pittance -- lefty reliever Hunter Jones, who made a couple of cameos with the Red Sox this season, and lefty reliever Jose Alvarez, who had a 4.74 ERA at Single-A Salem this season.
But that doesn't mean Hermida is a lock to go to spring training with the Red Sox -- let alone to play next season at Fenway Park. Among the reasons why:
1. He's a lefthanded hitter
The Red Sox went into September, before roster expansion, with just four outfielders on their 25-man roster: Rocco Baldelli, Jason Bay, J.D. Drew and Jacoby Ellsbury. Baldelli was the fourth outfielder -- and his primary value was as a caddy for Drew against lefthanded pitchers.
Hermida, however, doesn't bring that niche value. Hermida hit .282 against righties last season and a meager .189 against lefties. Hermida provides insurance for the possible departure of Bay, but even if Bay does end up leaving, the three best Red Sox outfielders all would be lefthanded. That's not the type of flexibility Terry Francona usually enjoys.
(Drew didn't miss any extended time this season, and you'd better believe that's in part because the Red Sox gave him regular days off -- something that was easy to do when they were facing a tough lefty. If Baldelli isn't re-signed, the Red Sox almost certainly will be looking for a righthanded hitter who can thrive in a part-time role in right field against lefties.)
2. There isn't a clear roster spot for him
If the Red Sox do sign a righthanded hitting backup outfielder, be it Baldelli or someone else, Hermida suddenly would be competing with Casey Kotchman for a roster spot. Baldelli and Mark Kotsay went into last season as the fourth and fifth Red Sox outfielders, but Kotsay was replaced by Adam LaRoche and LaRoche was replaced by Kotchman.
Unless the Red Sox make a move with Kotchman, they won't able to carry five outfielders on their roster because they'll be carrying too many infielders.
3. He doesn't have to be tendered a contract
The reason the Marlins were so eager to dump Hermida for any little package of prospects was because the outfielder will earn somewhere between $4 million and $5 million in arbitration this fall. (He earned $2.25 million last season.)
Had the Marlins not been able to trade him, though, they likely would have declined to tender him a contract -- something the Red Sox still have the option of doing. If Jason Bay signs -- or even is giving an indication he'll probably sign -- Hermida all of a sudden would become redundant on a roster that already includes Drew, Ellsbury and Kotchman.
Remember how an injury to Baldelli left the Red Sox without a viable righthanded bat off the bench during the playoffs? That's what the roster would look like next spring if Hermida inherits Baldelli's job as its fourth outfielder.
The Red Sox have until Dec. 12 to decide whether to offer contracts to their arbitration-eligible players -- Hermida and Kotchman among them. Maybe they'll let Hermida walk. Maybe they'll let Kotchman walk. Maybe they'll package one or both of them in another trade.
What they've really acquired in exchange for a pair of lefty relievers is a young player with upside and little bit of flexibility with their roster. That's it.
"This was not a blockbuster," Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein said. "This was a value trade, a chance to get a guy with unfulfilled potential for a reasonable cost. I don’t think we can draw grand conclusions about our offseason or the offseason throughout major league baseball based on this one transaction. It’s just a small move."
They've made no commitment to Hermida whatsoever. For all he knows, his Red Sox career might end up being as long and illustrious as that of Andy Marte.
But that doesn't mean Hermida is a lock to go to spring training with the Red Sox -- let alone to play next season at Fenway Park. Among the reasons why:
1. He's a lefthanded hitter
The Red Sox went into September, before roster expansion, with just four outfielders on their 25-man roster: Rocco Baldelli, Jason Bay, J.D. Drew and Jacoby Ellsbury. Baldelli was the fourth outfielder -- and his primary value was as a caddy for Drew against lefthanded pitchers.
Hermida, however, doesn't bring that niche value. Hermida hit .282 against righties last season and a meager .189 against lefties. Hermida provides insurance for the possible departure of Bay, but even if Bay does end up leaving, the three best Red Sox outfielders all would be lefthanded. That's not the type of flexibility Terry Francona usually enjoys.
(Drew didn't miss any extended time this season, and you'd better believe that's in part because the Red Sox gave him regular days off -- something that was easy to do when they were facing a tough lefty. If Baldelli isn't re-signed, the Red Sox almost certainly will be looking for a righthanded hitter who can thrive in a part-time role in right field against lefties.)
2. There isn't a clear roster spot for him
If the Red Sox do sign a righthanded hitting backup outfielder, be it Baldelli or someone else, Hermida suddenly would be competing with Casey Kotchman for a roster spot. Baldelli and Mark Kotsay went into last season as the fourth and fifth Red Sox outfielders, but Kotsay was replaced by Adam LaRoche and LaRoche was replaced by Kotchman.
Unless the Red Sox make a move with Kotchman, they won't able to carry five outfielders on their roster because they'll be carrying too many infielders.
3. He doesn't have to be tendered a contract
The reason the Marlins were so eager to dump Hermida for any little package of prospects was because the outfielder will earn somewhere between $4 million and $5 million in arbitration this fall. (He earned $2.25 million last season.)
Had the Marlins not been able to trade him, though, they likely would have declined to tender him a contract -- something the Red Sox still have the option of doing. If Jason Bay signs -- or even is giving an indication he'll probably sign -- Hermida all of a sudden would become redundant on a roster that already includes Drew, Ellsbury and Kotchman.
Remember how an injury to Baldelli left the Red Sox without a viable righthanded bat off the bench during the playoffs? That's what the roster would look like next spring if Hermida inherits Baldelli's job as its fourth outfielder.
The Red Sox have until Dec. 12 to decide whether to offer contracts to their arbitration-eligible players -- Hermida and Kotchman among them. Maybe they'll let Hermida walk. Maybe they'll let Kotchman walk. Maybe they'll package one or both of them in another trade.
What they've really acquired in exchange for a pair of lefty relievers is a young player with upside and little bit of flexibility with their roster. That's it.
"This was not a blockbuster," Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein said. "This was a value trade, a chance to get a guy with unfulfilled potential for a reasonable cost. I don’t think we can draw grand conclusions about our offseason or the offseason throughout major league baseball based on this one transaction. It’s just a small move."
They've made no commitment to Hermida whatsoever. For all he knows, his Red Sox career might end up being as long and illustrious as that of Andy Marte.
Monday, November 2, 2009
Capps, Hardy, Uggla, Willingham among intriguing non-tender candidates
(Three days after this was posted, the Red Sox acquired Jeremy Hermida. Go figure.)
Six weeks remain until the Dec. 12 deadline for teams to tender contracts to their arbitration-eligible players. As ESPN.com's Buster Olney detailed over the weekend, more than a few players will become free agents when their teams decline to tender them contracts in order to save upwards of $5 million.
And the pool of players might be better than you'd think. Reliever Takashi Saito was not tendered a contract by the Dodgers a year ago, for example, and he eventually signed an incentive-laden contract that earned him a season-long job in the Red Sox bullpen.
But the Red Sox don't have to wait until Dec. 12 to pounce. With the way arbitration drives up salaries, teams might be open to trading players who will start to see their salaries climb in the next year or two. (Even the Red Sox will be in this mindset with first baseman Casey Kotchman, a bench player in Boston who nonetheless will be in line for a paycheck around $4 million if he goes to arbitration this season.)
Among the players the Red Sox might consider inquiring about during the next six weeks or so:
Garrett Atkins, 1B/3B, Colorado ($7.05 million last season): Atkins will turn 30 in December and has seen his OPS tumble in each of the last four seasons -- from .965 in 2006 to .853 in 2007 to .780 in 2008 to .650 in 2009. He hit just nine home runs in almost 400 plate appearances this season and appears to have lost his job to youngster Ian Stewart.
Atkins' approach at the plate -- he's seen at least 3.9 pitches per plate appearance in two of his last three seasons and swings at pitches out of the strike zone at a clip well below the major-league average -- once seemed to make him a fit for the Red Sox. But the presence of Casey Kotchman and Mike Lowell make Atkins redundant, so it would take an accompanying move to make Atkins a worthwhile acquisition.
Matt Capps, RP, Pittsburgh ($2.3 million last season): The Pirates might not want to pay a closer who put up a 5.80 ERA a year ago -- especially since arbitrators love saves, and Capps had 27 of them last season. But that might be to the benefit of a team that still remembers the 2.28 and 3.02 ERAs Capps put up in the two years previous.
Capps saw his opponents' batting average on balls in play jump by almost 100 points a year ago -- from .268 to .364 -- a jump that's almost certainly unsustainable. The jump in his ratio of home runs per fly ball -- from 6.8 percent to 13.5 pecent -- might be fluky, too.
What might be cause for concern, though, is the fact that his strikeout-to-walk ratio fell from 7.80 two seasons ago to 2.71 last season.
He wouldn't be a closer with the Red Sox the way he is with the Pirates, but it's not hard to envision the 26-year-old as a useful bullpen arm -- perhaps filling the same role Saito did.
J.J. Hardy, SS, Milwaukee ($4.65 million last season): The Brewers shipped Hardy to Triple-A Nashville this season with his batting average down at .229 and his on-base percentage at .300. It was easily the worst season for a 26-year-old shortstop who hit 31 doubles and 24 home runs a year ago as part of an .821 OPS.
In some ways, it could be considered fluky: His .260 batting average on balls in play last season was 45 points lower than it was two years ago.
In other ways, it could be considered a fair result: His line-drive rate dropped to a career-low 13 percent, meaning he wasn't hitting the ball as hard as he did in the past. His strikeout rate also climbed to a career-high 18.3 percent, and while his walk rate climbed, too, it didn't quite keep pace.
The Red Sox can't go into next season depending on Jed Lowrie to stay healthy and play shortstop. With as much as the door has revolved at that position, however, the risk of trading for Hardy might be too much.
Jeremy Hermida, OF, Florida ($2.25 million last season): At one time a highly touted prospect, the star of Hermida seems to have lost his luster. He did, however, seem to get back on track a little bit -- he cut down his strikeout-to-walk ratio and boosted his line-drive percentage a season ago. He also has tremendous pitch-per-at-bat numbers -- numbers that climbed to a career-best 4.21 a season ago. Had he qualified -- he had 491 plate appearances, just missing the cutoff -- he would have ranked eighth in the National League in that category.
Like Hardy, he's still young: He doesn't turn 26 until January, meaning it's too early to give up on him as a worthwhile major-league player.
The biggest downside: Hermida is a lefthanded hitter, and if Rocco Baldelli should sign elsewhere, leaving the Red Sox without their best fourth outfielder, they'll almost certainly be in the market for a righthanded hitter to spell J.D. Drew and Jacoby Ellsbury.
Dan Uggla, 2B, Florida ($5.35 million last season): You can read more here, but here's the gist:
* He has OPS'ed over .800 in each of his first four seasons;
* His strikeout-to-walk ratio has dropped in each of the last three seasons;
* His batting average dropped to .243 this season, a career low, but his on-base percentage almost held steady -- and his batting average on balls in play dropped by 50 points, a sign he ran into some bad luck;
* He played third base in the minor leagues almost as much as he played second base.
If the Red Sox decide to jettison Mike Lowell or to play him more at designated hitter than at third base, Uggla could be an intriguing option.
Josh Willingham, LF, Washington ($2.95 million last season): It's not that Willingham would be a spectacular alternative to Jason Bay. But should the Red Sox's left fielder depart via free agency, they could do worse as a replacement -- while upgrading elsewhere, of course -- than Willingham.
For one thing, Willingham is a righthanded hitter and would balance out the lefty-heavy Red Sox lineup. For another thing, the 30-year-old has the type of plate approach the Red Sox like to see: His strikeout-to-walk ratio is below the major-league average, and he consistently sees more than four pitches per plate appearance.
His power is almost purely to left field, meaning that the Green Monster might do wonders for a slugging percentage that already was close to .500 last season.
Six weeks remain until the Dec. 12 deadline for teams to tender contracts to their arbitration-eligible players. As ESPN.com's Buster Olney detailed over the weekend, more than a few players will become free agents when their teams decline to tender them contracts in order to save upwards of $5 million.
And the pool of players might be better than you'd think. Reliever Takashi Saito was not tendered a contract by the Dodgers a year ago, for example, and he eventually signed an incentive-laden contract that earned him a season-long job in the Red Sox bullpen.
But the Red Sox don't have to wait until Dec. 12 to pounce. With the way arbitration drives up salaries, teams might be open to trading players who will start to see their salaries climb in the next year or two. (Even the Red Sox will be in this mindset with first baseman Casey Kotchman, a bench player in Boston who nonetheless will be in line for a paycheck around $4 million if he goes to arbitration this season.)
Among the players the Red Sox might consider inquiring about during the next six weeks or so:
Garrett Atkins, 1B/3B, Colorado ($7.05 million last season): Atkins will turn 30 in December and has seen his OPS tumble in each of the last four seasons -- from .965 in 2006 to .853 in 2007 to .780 in 2008 to .650 in 2009. He hit just nine home runs in almost 400 plate appearances this season and appears to have lost his job to youngster Ian Stewart.
Atkins' approach at the plate -- he's seen at least 3.9 pitches per plate appearance in two of his last three seasons and swings at pitches out of the strike zone at a clip well below the major-league average -- once seemed to make him a fit for the Red Sox. But the presence of Casey Kotchman and Mike Lowell make Atkins redundant, so it would take an accompanying move to make Atkins a worthwhile acquisition.
Matt Capps, RP, Pittsburgh ($2.3 million last season): The Pirates might not want to pay a closer who put up a 5.80 ERA a year ago -- especially since arbitrators love saves, and Capps had 27 of them last season. But that might be to the benefit of a team that still remembers the 2.28 and 3.02 ERAs Capps put up in the two years previous.
Capps saw his opponents' batting average on balls in play jump by almost 100 points a year ago -- from .268 to .364 -- a jump that's almost certainly unsustainable. The jump in his ratio of home runs per fly ball -- from 6.8 percent to 13.5 pecent -- might be fluky, too.
What might be cause for concern, though, is the fact that his strikeout-to-walk ratio fell from 7.80 two seasons ago to 2.71 last season.
He wouldn't be a closer with the Red Sox the way he is with the Pirates, but it's not hard to envision the 26-year-old as a useful bullpen arm -- perhaps filling the same role Saito did.
J.J. Hardy, SS, Milwaukee ($4.65 million last season): The Brewers shipped Hardy to Triple-A Nashville this season with his batting average down at .229 and his on-base percentage at .300. It was easily the worst season for a 26-year-old shortstop who hit 31 doubles and 24 home runs a year ago as part of an .821 OPS.
In some ways, it could be considered fluky: His .260 batting average on balls in play last season was 45 points lower than it was two years ago.
In other ways, it could be considered a fair result: His line-drive rate dropped to a career-low 13 percent, meaning he wasn't hitting the ball as hard as he did in the past. His strikeout rate also climbed to a career-high 18.3 percent, and while his walk rate climbed, too, it didn't quite keep pace.
The Red Sox can't go into next season depending on Jed Lowrie to stay healthy and play shortstop. With as much as the door has revolved at that position, however, the risk of trading for Hardy might be too much.
Jeremy Hermida, OF, Florida ($2.25 million last season): At one time a highly touted prospect, the star of Hermida seems to have lost his luster. He did, however, seem to get back on track a little bit -- he cut down his strikeout-to-walk ratio and boosted his line-drive percentage a season ago. He also has tremendous pitch-per-at-bat numbers -- numbers that climbed to a career-best 4.21 a season ago. Had he qualified -- he had 491 plate appearances, just missing the cutoff -- he would have ranked eighth in the National League in that category.
Like Hardy, he's still young: He doesn't turn 26 until January, meaning it's too early to give up on him as a worthwhile major-league player.
The biggest downside: Hermida is a lefthanded hitter, and if Rocco Baldelli should sign elsewhere, leaving the Red Sox without their best fourth outfielder, they'll almost certainly be in the market for a righthanded hitter to spell J.D. Drew and Jacoby Ellsbury.
Dan Uggla, 2B, Florida ($5.35 million last season): You can read more here, but here's the gist:
* He has OPS'ed over .800 in each of his first four seasons;
* His strikeout-to-walk ratio has dropped in each of the last three seasons;
* His batting average dropped to .243 this season, a career low, but his on-base percentage almost held steady -- and his batting average on balls in play dropped by 50 points, a sign he ran into some bad luck;
* He played third base in the minor leagues almost as much as he played second base.
If the Red Sox decide to jettison Mike Lowell or to play him more at designated hitter than at third base, Uggla could be an intriguing option.
Josh Willingham, LF, Washington ($2.95 million last season): It's not that Willingham would be a spectacular alternative to Jason Bay. But should the Red Sox's left fielder depart via free agency, they could do worse as a replacement -- while upgrading elsewhere, of course -- than Willingham.
For one thing, Willingham is a righthanded hitter and would balance out the lefty-heavy Red Sox lineup. For another thing, the 30-year-old has the type of plate approach the Red Sox like to see: His strikeout-to-walk ratio is below the major-league average, and he consistently sees more than four pitches per plate appearance.
His power is almost purely to left field, meaning that the Green Monster might do wonders for a slugging percentage that already was close to .500 last season.
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