Tim Wakefield again has reiterated his unwavering belief that he would open the starting rotation in the Red Sox rotation.
“I plan to be one of the five starters," he told reporters in Fort Myers on Friday. "As long as I'm healthy during spring training and there are no setbacks, when we start the season, I think I’ll be one of the five. We talked about that. I think Tito (Francona) and Theo (Epstein) and John (Farrell) all think we’re a better team with me in the rotation. I eat up innings, I do whatever it takes to help us win, and I think we agreed on that aspect."
There are three possibilities here:
1. Tito and Theo and John really do believe the Red Sox are a better team with Wakefield in the rotation than with Clay Buchholz or Daisuke Matsuzaka.
2. Tito and Theo and John are not being honest with Wakefield.
3. Tito and Theo and John have been honest with Wakefield but Wakefield chooses to make declarations with no basis in reality.
No matter how you slice it, that's not good for the team.
First things first: The Red Sox are not a better team with Wakefield in the rotation than with Buchholz or Matsuzaka. Both Buchholz and Matsuzaka have shown flashes of top-of-the-rotation potential -- especially Buchholz, who had a 2.37 ERA and a sub-.600 OPS against during a 10-start stretch in August and September.
Matsuzaka might be maddening to watch. Matsuzaka might not have lived up to expectations. The Red Sox have him under contract for three more seasons, though, and his upside far exceeds that of Wakefield. If he's healthy -- and all indications are that he is going to be healthy -- he's going to be the No. 5 starter in the rotation.
Wakefield, meanwhile, has posted an ERA over 4.50 in three of his last four seasons and hasn't had even a decent second half since 2005. He's a perfectly serviceable pitcher for a team that needs to fill out its rotation, but he's not as good as Buchholz and not appreciably better than Matsuzaka. There's no way around it: The Red Sox rotation would not be better if he replaced either Buchholz or Matsuzaka.
The only reason for the Red Sox to keep Wakefield around, it seems, is as insurance -- but he's not talking like anyone has made that clear to him. He believes he has much claim on a spot in the rotation as Josh Beckett, John Lackey or Jon Lester. One can't help but imagine problems surfacing near Opening Day if and when the 43-year-old knuckleballer finds himself on the outs.
Epstein and Francona need to have a conversation with Wakefield -- and soon. Someone needs to tell him that he's pitching for a rotation spot right now belonging to Buchholz or Matsuzaka, and not the other way around.
(There is a slim possibility that Wakefield might be correct and that one of the five rotation spots does belong to him, be it at the expense of Buchholz or Matsuzaka. Should that be the case, well, that's another discussion entirely.)
Showing posts with label wakefield. Show all posts
Showing posts with label wakefield. Show all posts
Monday, February 22, 2010
Thursday, January 28, 2010
No spot reserved for Wakefield
"It seems every year, and I don't know why, my name gets brought up like this when I don't feel I need to prove myself every day. I don't know where the rumors are coming from, but I try not to pay attention. I know my role and I know what my approach is going to be when I get to spring training: be a starter and help us win the World Series. Hopefully they respect me enough to give me the ball when we get to spring training as a member of this rotation. I think I've earned the right to be a full-time starter and go from there."
-- Tim Wakefield
With all due respect to Wakefield, a man who can never get enough credit for his contribution to two World Series titles, here's a look at his second-half numbers over the past six seasons:
2004: 5.77 ERA (14 starts)
2005: 4.26 ERA (15 starts)
2006: 7.40 ERA (5 starts)
2007: 5.25 ERA (14 starts)
2008: 5.22 ERA (11 starts)
2009: 6.00 ERA (4 starts)
Not since he turned 40 years old -- and it's important to remember that he turned 40 years old 3 1/2 years ago -- has Wakefield been anything close to effective down the stretch for the Red Sox. He hasn't held up. He hasn't stayed healthy. He hasn't kept runs off the scoreboard.
He hasn't, to put it bluntly, earned the right to be a full-time starter and go from there.
Wakefield generally has pitched well in the first half in the Terry Francona era. His first half last season earned him his first career All-Star nod even though his ERA (4.31) was more than half a run higher than it had been the year before (3.60).
The gems he threw -- he took a no-hitter into the eighth inning in Oakland and threw seven one-hit innings in Cleveland two weeks later -- looked even better when contrasted with the ugly outings endured by Daisuke Matsuzaka and the assorted wreckage at the bottom of the starting rotation.
Wakefield, who underwent back surgery in the offseason, this week pronounced himself healthy and ready to go well ahead of spring training.
"We'll see when we get there, but I plan on being one of the five starters," Wakefield told reporters at an awards ceremony in New York. "I think I've earned that."
Of the five other starting pitchers in the conversation, three are Fort Knox locks to open the season as part of the rotation: Josh Beckett, John Lackey and Jon Lester. The order in which the three will pitch is still open for discussion. Even Wakefield, though, wouldn't argue that any of those three are occupying the spot he's earned.
Beyond that, Clay Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka remain, and the Red Sox have a compelling reason to make sure each is part of the starting rotation:
1. Buchholz looked like one of the best starters in the American League last season during a 10-start stretch in which he compiled a 2.37 ERA and limited opposing hitters to a .572 OPS.
2. Matsuzaka won't turn 30 years old until September, and his body thus is far more likely than that of Wakefield to bounce back from the injuries that torpedoed his season a year ago. (That is, of course, as long as he discloses all of his injuries.) On top of that, he has three years and $28 million remaining on the contract he signed with the Red Sox before the 2007 season.
The most compelling reason for Wakefield?
1. He's earned it.
Well, OK, sure, Wakefield has put up some impressive first-half numbers over the last few seasons:
2004: 4.17 ERA (18 games, including 16 starts)
2005: 4.05 ERA (18 starts)
2006: 4.05 ERA (18 starts)
2007: 4.39 ERA (17 starts)
2008: 3.60 ERA (19 starts)
2009: 4.31 ERA (17 starts)
The Red Sox just have no reason to believe Wakefield can maintain that level of production -- or any level of production, really -- through August and September. If he starts the season with a spot in the rotation, he's inevitably going to have to be replaced.
Even worse, to shoehorn Wakefield into the rotation to start the season, the Red Sox probably would have to send Clay Buchholz back to Triple-A Pawtucket to tear the International League apart for a second straight spring. Buchholz might still bring question marks with him, but he gave every indication last August and September that he's ready to become an elite pitcher in the American League. Like Lester before him, he's in position to take a gigantic step foward in his development -- and the presence of Wakefield only would stunt that development.
Wakefield has earned the undying respect of every Red Sox fan. He hasn't earned, however, a spot in the rotation in perpetuity. Finding a role for him will take some creativity -- but that role shouldn't involve taking the ball every five days.
-- Tim Wakefield
With all due respect to Wakefield, a man who can never get enough credit for his contribution to two World Series titles, here's a look at his second-half numbers over the past six seasons:
2004: 5.77 ERA (14 starts)
2005: 4.26 ERA (15 starts)
2006: 7.40 ERA (5 starts)
2007: 5.25 ERA (14 starts)
2008: 5.22 ERA (11 starts)
2009: 6.00 ERA (4 starts)
Not since he turned 40 years old -- and it's important to remember that he turned 40 years old 3 1/2 years ago -- has Wakefield been anything close to effective down the stretch for the Red Sox. He hasn't held up. He hasn't stayed healthy. He hasn't kept runs off the scoreboard.
He hasn't, to put it bluntly, earned the right to be a full-time starter and go from there.
Wakefield generally has pitched well in the first half in the Terry Francona era. His first half last season earned him his first career All-Star nod even though his ERA (4.31) was more than half a run higher than it had been the year before (3.60).
The gems he threw -- he took a no-hitter into the eighth inning in Oakland and threw seven one-hit innings in Cleveland two weeks later -- looked even better when contrasted with the ugly outings endured by Daisuke Matsuzaka and the assorted wreckage at the bottom of the starting rotation.
Wakefield, who underwent back surgery in the offseason, this week pronounced himself healthy and ready to go well ahead of spring training.
"We'll see when we get there, but I plan on being one of the five starters," Wakefield told reporters at an awards ceremony in New York. "I think I've earned that."
Of the five other starting pitchers in the conversation, three are Fort Knox locks to open the season as part of the rotation: Josh Beckett, John Lackey and Jon Lester. The order in which the three will pitch is still open for discussion. Even Wakefield, though, wouldn't argue that any of those three are occupying the spot he's earned.
Beyond that, Clay Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka remain, and the Red Sox have a compelling reason to make sure each is part of the starting rotation:
1. Buchholz looked like one of the best starters in the American League last season during a 10-start stretch in which he compiled a 2.37 ERA and limited opposing hitters to a .572 OPS.
2. Matsuzaka won't turn 30 years old until September, and his body thus is far more likely than that of Wakefield to bounce back from the injuries that torpedoed his season a year ago. (That is, of course, as long as he discloses all of his injuries.) On top of that, he has three years and $28 million remaining on the contract he signed with the Red Sox before the 2007 season.
The most compelling reason for Wakefield?
1. He's earned it.
Well, OK, sure, Wakefield has put up some impressive first-half numbers over the last few seasons:
2004: 4.17 ERA (18 games, including 16 starts)
2005: 4.05 ERA (18 starts)
2006: 4.05 ERA (18 starts)
2007: 4.39 ERA (17 starts)
2008: 3.60 ERA (19 starts)
2009: 4.31 ERA (17 starts)
The Red Sox just have no reason to believe Wakefield can maintain that level of production -- or any level of production, really -- through August and September. If he starts the season with a spot in the rotation, he's inevitably going to have to be replaced.
Even worse, to shoehorn Wakefield into the rotation to start the season, the Red Sox probably would have to send Clay Buchholz back to Triple-A Pawtucket to tear the International League apart for a second straight spring. Buchholz might still bring question marks with him, but he gave every indication last August and September that he's ready to become an elite pitcher in the American League. Like Lester before him, he's in position to take a gigantic step foward in his development -- and the presence of Wakefield only would stunt that development.
Wakefield has earned the undying respect of every Red Sox fan. He hasn't earned, however, a spot in the rotation in perpetuity. Finding a role for him will take some creativity -- but that role shouldn't involve taking the ball every five days.
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Red Sox moment of the year: Wake's ASG pick
Position players came first when Fenway Park public-address announcer Carl Beane began to read off the Red Sox players who had been selected to the American League All-Star team. The top of the second inning had just ended, and that gave Beane a chance to read off the names for the fans in the stadium who hadn't caught the announcement live.
Jason Bay was in -- a starter, in fact, in left field. Dustin Pedroia was in. Kevin Youkilis was in.
Pitchers came next. Josh Beckett was in. Jonathan Papelbon was in. No surprise there.
Beane then changed the tenor of his voice a little bit. There was one last name to announce, and that announcement had to warm the heart of even the most cynical Red Sox fan.
Tim Wakefield -- a 42-year-old who made his debut with the Red Sox before Jon Lester had finished the fifth grade -- had made his first All-Star team.
The instant the knuckleballer's familiar goateed face showed up on the scoreboard in center field, Fenway Park erupted in cheers. A camera then found Wakefield in the Red Sox dugout so he could wave to the 35,000 fans showing their appreciation. He even got some mid-game face time on NESN -- complete with a bear hug from David Ortiz.
It was about as genuine as a moment gets. Wakefield didn't necessarily have the same numbers as some of the other All-Stars -- his ERA at that point was 4.31 -- but he'd won 10 games and had kept the Red Sox pitching staff afloat almost by himself for the first half of the season.
"I just felt that getting him on the team was the right thing to do," Tampa Bay Rays manager Joe Maddon said.
The decision to select Wakefield wasn't a popular one around baseball. Even now, it's tough to argue he was one of the best 10 or 12 pitchers in the major leagues in the first half of the season.
It still was a special moment for a pitcher who has done so much -- from starting to closing to mopping up lost causes to preserve the bullpen -- for the Red Sox over the last 15 seasons.
It might have been even more special than the moment Wakefield shared with Red Sox manager Terry Francona before the game (an excerpt from that day's Union Leader story):
Wakefield stepped into Francona’s office and immediately saw Jason Bay, Josh Beckett, Jonathan Papelbon, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis waiting for him with All-Star packets in their hands and solemn expressions on their faces.
“He'd said, ‘You guys all made it – and, actually, Wake made it, too, but we’re going to let him sweat it out a little bit,’” Bay said.
The gag actually worked for a moment or two, but it didn’t last long. Francona couldn’t hold it in.
“He sat me down and tried to play it off like it wasn’t good news,” Wakefield said, “and then he couldn’t hold his laughter in any longer.”
Said Francona, “I just cheesed up real fast.”
(Runner-up for Red Sox moment of the year: Jacoby Ellsbury's steal of home against the Yankees.)
Jason Bay was in -- a starter, in fact, in left field. Dustin Pedroia was in. Kevin Youkilis was in.
Pitchers came next. Josh Beckett was in. Jonathan Papelbon was in. No surprise there.
Beane then changed the tenor of his voice a little bit. There was one last name to announce, and that announcement had to warm the heart of even the most cynical Red Sox fan.
Tim Wakefield -- a 42-year-old who made his debut with the Red Sox before Jon Lester had finished the fifth grade -- had made his first All-Star team.
The instant the knuckleballer's familiar goateed face showed up on the scoreboard in center field, Fenway Park erupted in cheers. A camera then found Wakefield in the Red Sox dugout so he could wave to the 35,000 fans showing their appreciation. He even got some mid-game face time on NESN -- complete with a bear hug from David Ortiz.
It was about as genuine as a moment gets. Wakefield didn't necessarily have the same numbers as some of the other All-Stars -- his ERA at that point was 4.31 -- but he'd won 10 games and had kept the Red Sox pitching staff afloat almost by himself for the first half of the season.
"I just felt that getting him on the team was the right thing to do," Tampa Bay Rays manager Joe Maddon said.
The decision to select Wakefield wasn't a popular one around baseball. Even now, it's tough to argue he was one of the best 10 or 12 pitchers in the major leagues in the first half of the season.
It still was a special moment for a pitcher who has done so much -- from starting to closing to mopping up lost causes to preserve the bullpen -- for the Red Sox over the last 15 seasons.
It might have been even more special than the moment Wakefield shared with Red Sox manager Terry Francona before the game (an excerpt from that day's Union Leader story):
Wakefield stepped into Francona’s office and immediately saw Jason Bay, Josh Beckett, Jonathan Papelbon, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis waiting for him with All-Star packets in their hands and solemn expressions on their faces.
“He'd said, ‘You guys all made it – and, actually, Wake made it, too, but we’re going to let him sweat it out a little bit,’” Bay said.
The gag actually worked for a moment or two, but it didn’t last long. Francona couldn’t hold it in.
“He sat me down and tried to play it off like it wasn’t good news,” Wakefield said, “and then he couldn’t hold his laughter in any longer.”
Said Francona, “I just cheesed up real fast.”
(Runner-up for Red Sox moment of the year: Jacoby Ellsbury's steal of home against the Yankees.)
Friday, September 18, 2009
Clay Buchholz and financial flexibility
What Clay Buchholz has brought with him back to Boston isn't just renewed confidence and a devastating changeup. He's brought with him the financial flexibility that will allow the Red Sox to fill gaping holes elsewhere.
The Red Sox have deep pockets, but even the Red Sox have to draw a line somewhere. We've seen the line before -- particularly with Mark Teixeira this past winter -- but we've also seen it more subtly: When the Red Sox acquired Billy Wagner, for example, Theo Epstein cited the budgeted performance bonuses for Brad Penny and John Smoltz as the reason he could afford to assume the contract of Billy Wagner.
Buchholz, who will finish this season with a little more than two full years of service time in the major leagues, will earn somewhere around $500,000 next season. He'll be arbitration-eligible for the first time a season after that. Combined with Jon Lester, whose contract doesn't break $10 million until 2013, Buchholz will give the Red Sox unprecedented payroll flexibility within their starting rotation and beyond.
Here's how the projected Red Sox rotation breaks down next season:
1. Josh Beckett, $12 million
2. Jon Lester, $3.75 million
3. Clay Buchholz, ~$500,000
4. Daisuke Matsuzaka, $8 million
5. Tim Wakefield, $4 million
Total: Just shy of $26 million
Compare that to the Yankees' projected rotation:
1. CC Sabathia, $23 million
2. A.J. Burnett, $16.5 million
3. Joba Chamberlain, ~$500,000
4-5. Fill in the blank
Total (1-3): $40 million-plus
But it's not really about the Yankees. It's about the Red Sox, and it's about Theo Epstein's ability to spend money in the areas his team needs help. The key comparison, really, is with the way the Red Sox spent money on pitchers in the past -- and we'll look at recent two seasons chosen completely and totally at random:
2007
1. Beckett, $6 million
2. Curt Schilling, $13 million
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka, $8 million
4. Wakefield, $4 million
5. Julian Tavarez, $3.35 million
Total: $34.35 million
2004
1. Pedro Martinez, $17.5 million
2. Schilling, $12 million
3. Derek Lowe, $5 million
4. Wakefield, $4.35 million
5. Bronson Arroyo, $332,500
Total: $39.1825 million
(Numbers all lifted from Cot's Baseball Contracts.)
Pitching, of course, is everything.
But when you don't have to spend money on pitching -- particularly in a free-agent market as weak as the upcoming free-agent market will be -- you're a step ahead of the game.
Think of it this way: If Buchholz was pitching more like a No. 4 starter than like a No. 2, the Red Sox would have to think about signing Jon Garland, John Lackey or Jarrod Washburn to a big-money contract to fit in behind Beckett and Lester. Lackey in particular is going to be looking for A.J. Burnett-type money -- and rightfully so, given that he's a better pitcher than Burnett -- and he's going to get it from someone.
Thanks to Buchholz, though, it won't be from the Red Sox.
For a team with fairly deep pockets, saving money on pitching isn't usually a yellow-brick road to the playoffs. We've all seen the Red Sox burned before when they've gone bargain shopping for starting pitchers.
But with a starting rotation already filled up with quality major-league pitchers at less than $30 million for the entire package, the Red Sox can afford to spend elsewhere. That's going to be essential for a team that's going to need to spend elsewhere.
Consider the financial considerations for next season:
(Italics denote estimate.)
1. Left field: $7.5 million in 2009. $15 million for 2010.
Jason Bay is a free agent, and the Red Sox will either have to pony up for Bay or Matt Holliday or replace that production at another position. Bay cost the Red Sox just $7.5 million a year this season, but they'll have to pay double that either to him or to his replacement.
2. Shortstop. $1 million in 2009. $6 million in 2010.
The team holds a $6 million option on Alex Gonzalez, a reasonable price to pay for Jed Lowrie insurance. The idea of Jose Reyes remains on the table, and if you don't think Epstein will have that conversation with Omar Minaya a couple of times, you're crazy.
3. Catcher. $6 million in 2009. $11 million in 2010.
The $7.5 million option the Red Sox hold on Victor Martinez might be the biggest no-brainer of all time, but that's more money than they spent on Jason Varitek and George Kottaras combined this season. Oh, and they'll still owe $3 million to Varitek whether they save a roster spot for him or not.
4. Third base. $12 million in 2009. $12 million in 2010.
Mike Lowell is looking a little more spry these days, but it's still a gamble to count on a 36-year-old with limited range to play third base every day. Chone Figgins and Marco Scutaro both are options, and while Scutaro might come relatively cheap, Figgins won't.
5. Designated hitter. $12.5 million in 2009. $12.5 million in 2010.
David Ortiz came alive in June but has seen his slugging percentage drop every month since -- even with his pinch-hit double on Sunday, he's still slugging just .400 -- and the Red Sox might not want to risk their designated hitter looking as lifeless next season as Ortiz did in April and May.
6. Other monies owed.
The Red Sox still will have to pay Julio Lugo $9 million next season no matter what uniform he wears. Should they jettison Lowell or Ortiz, they'll have to eat quite a bit of that money, too, and that starts to add up.
Without Buchholz looking like Zack Greinke in the middle of the Red Sox rotation, Epstein would have to shell out quite a bit of money for a workhorse like Lackey -- or he'd have to unload a half-dozen prized prospects for a young phenom like Felix Hernandez.
Instead, though, Epstein can spend that money on a slugger to play left field or for a super-utility infielder like Figgins or Scutaro to play third base and shortstop -- or he can use it to pay another big bopper while turning Ortiz into a $12 million-a-year pinch-hitter off the bench.
The Red Sox have shifted their focus to their farm system because financial flexibility is everything in baseball. When you only have to pay your No. 2 and No. 3 starters a combined $4 million, it gives you the opportunity to do just about anything else you want.
The Red Sox have deep pockets, but even the Red Sox have to draw a line somewhere. We've seen the line before -- particularly with Mark Teixeira this past winter -- but we've also seen it more subtly: When the Red Sox acquired Billy Wagner, for example, Theo Epstein cited the budgeted performance bonuses for Brad Penny and John Smoltz as the reason he could afford to assume the contract of Billy Wagner.
Buchholz, who will finish this season with a little more than two full years of service time in the major leagues, will earn somewhere around $500,000 next season. He'll be arbitration-eligible for the first time a season after that. Combined with Jon Lester, whose contract doesn't break $10 million until 2013, Buchholz will give the Red Sox unprecedented payroll flexibility within their starting rotation and beyond.
Here's how the projected Red Sox rotation breaks down next season:
1. Josh Beckett, $12 million
2. Jon Lester, $3.75 million
3. Clay Buchholz, ~$500,000
4. Daisuke Matsuzaka, $8 million
5. Tim Wakefield, $4 million
Total: Just shy of $26 million
Compare that to the Yankees' projected rotation:
1. CC Sabathia, $23 million
2. A.J. Burnett, $16.5 million
3. Joba Chamberlain, ~$500,000
4-5. Fill in the blank
Total (1-3): $40 million-plus
But it's not really about the Yankees. It's about the Red Sox, and it's about Theo Epstein's ability to spend money in the areas his team needs help. The key comparison, really, is with the way the Red Sox spent money on pitchers in the past -- and we'll look at recent two seasons chosen completely and totally at random:
2007
1. Beckett, $6 million
2. Curt Schilling, $13 million
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka, $8 million
4. Wakefield, $4 million
5. Julian Tavarez, $3.35 million
Total: $34.35 million
2004
1. Pedro Martinez, $17.5 million
2. Schilling, $12 million
3. Derek Lowe, $5 million
4. Wakefield, $4.35 million
5. Bronson Arroyo, $332,500
Total: $39.1825 million
(Numbers all lifted from Cot's Baseball Contracts.)
Pitching, of course, is everything.
But when you don't have to spend money on pitching -- particularly in a free-agent market as weak as the upcoming free-agent market will be -- you're a step ahead of the game.
Think of it this way: If Buchholz was pitching more like a No. 4 starter than like a No. 2, the Red Sox would have to think about signing Jon Garland, John Lackey or Jarrod Washburn to a big-money contract to fit in behind Beckett and Lester. Lackey in particular is going to be looking for A.J. Burnett-type money -- and rightfully so, given that he's a better pitcher than Burnett -- and he's going to get it from someone.
Thanks to Buchholz, though, it won't be from the Red Sox.
For a team with fairly deep pockets, saving money on pitching isn't usually a yellow-brick road to the playoffs. We've all seen the Red Sox burned before when they've gone bargain shopping for starting pitchers.
But with a starting rotation already filled up with quality major-league pitchers at less than $30 million for the entire package, the Red Sox can afford to spend elsewhere. That's going to be essential for a team that's going to need to spend elsewhere.
Consider the financial considerations for next season:
(Italics denote estimate.)
1. Left field: $7.5 million in 2009. $15 million for 2010.
Jason Bay is a free agent, and the Red Sox will either have to pony up for Bay or Matt Holliday or replace that production at another position. Bay cost the Red Sox just $7.5 million a year this season, but they'll have to pay double that either to him or to his replacement.
2. Shortstop. $1 million in 2009. $6 million in 2010.
The team holds a $6 million option on Alex Gonzalez, a reasonable price to pay for Jed Lowrie insurance. The idea of Jose Reyes remains on the table, and if you don't think Epstein will have that conversation with Omar Minaya a couple of times, you're crazy.
3. Catcher. $6 million in 2009. $11 million in 2010.
The $7.5 million option the Red Sox hold on Victor Martinez might be the biggest no-brainer of all time, but that's more money than they spent on Jason Varitek and George Kottaras combined this season. Oh, and they'll still owe $3 million to Varitek whether they save a roster spot for him or not.
4. Third base. $12 million in 2009. $12 million in 2010.
Mike Lowell is looking a little more spry these days, but it's still a gamble to count on a 36-year-old with limited range to play third base every day. Chone Figgins and Marco Scutaro both are options, and while Scutaro might come relatively cheap, Figgins won't.
5. Designated hitter. $12.5 million in 2009. $12.5 million in 2010.
David Ortiz came alive in June but has seen his slugging percentage drop every month since -- even with his pinch-hit double on Sunday, he's still slugging just .400 -- and the Red Sox might not want to risk their designated hitter looking as lifeless next season as Ortiz did in April and May.
6. Other monies owed.
The Red Sox still will have to pay Julio Lugo $9 million next season no matter what uniform he wears. Should they jettison Lowell or Ortiz, they'll have to eat quite a bit of that money, too, and that starts to add up.
Without Buchholz looking like Zack Greinke in the middle of the Red Sox rotation, Epstein would have to shell out quite a bit of money for a workhorse like Lackey -- or he'd have to unload a half-dozen prized prospects for a young phenom like Felix Hernandez.
Instead, though, Epstein can spend that money on a slugger to play left field or for a super-utility infielder like Figgins or Scutaro to play third base and shortstop -- or he can use it to pay another big bopper while turning Ortiz into a $12 million-a-year pinch-hitter off the bench.
The Red Sox have shifted their focus to their farm system because financial flexibility is everything in baseball. When you only have to pay your No. 2 and No. 3 starters a combined $4 million, it gives you the opportunity to do just about anything else you want.
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Wakefield arrives, rotation stabilizes
Well, that might be that.
It's dangerous to make too much out of one start, but if Tim Wakefield can pitch like that for the rest of the season, the Red Sox rotation might be all set once again -- whether Daisuke Matsuzaka makes it back to the major leagues or not.
(The Red Sox appear to agree: Brad Penny was granted his release late Wednesday night after watching Wakefield's start from the bullpen. It was interesting to watch Penny walk out to the bullpen before the game -- he had his arm around Manny Delcarmen much of the way. A roster spot now is clear for Billy Wagner to join the team on Thursday.)
Wakefield tossed seven outstanding innings, allowing six hits and one run while striking out three and walking one. He allowed a run in the first inning when Paul Konerko hit a towering triple to center field, but he retired seven straight after that and diddn't allow another hit until Carlos Quentin's swinging bunt in the top of the fifth. He allowed two runners to reach base in the seventh inning but retired Alexei Ramirez on a pop fly to shortstop to end the inning -- and his night.
He threw 94 pitches. He threw 73 of them for strikes. He didn't miss the strike zone until the second inning.
"I had better command than I did in Pawtucket, obviously, throwing a lot of strikes with a lot of movement," he said. "That kind of set the tone early in the first inning."
Even better, just one knuckleball slipped out of the glove of catcher Victor Martinez -- who was wearing a first baseman's mitt to give himself a better chance.
"He's worked hard the last two weeks catching my sides and playing catch with me out in the outfield," Wakefield said. "For the first time catching me in a game situation with hitters up there, he did a phenomenal job."
All of a sudden, a rotation once in tatters looks like it's coming together. Josh Beckett and Jon Lester remain the aces at the top of the rotation, and Wakefield slides right into the role of No. 3 starter he filled during his All-Star first half. Clay Buchholz had a rough go of things on Monday but had strung together three solid starts before that, and Junichi Tazawa has allowed either one run or zero runs in two of his three stars in the major leagues.
On top of that, Daisuke Matsuzaka is on his way back looking slim and trim and reportedly throwing better than he ever did this spring.
The Red Sox could go into the final weeks of the pennant race with the same starting rotation with which they opened the season -- with the exception of Buchholz assuming the role Penny once did. Both Buchholz and Tazawa then would be candidates to pitch out of the bullpen in the playoffs or, if Matsuzaka hits a roadblock, to make a Game 4 start in the first round.
These things really do work themselves out in the end.
It's dangerous to make too much out of one start, but if Tim Wakefield can pitch like that for the rest of the season, the Red Sox rotation might be all set once again -- whether Daisuke Matsuzaka makes it back to the major leagues or not.
(The Red Sox appear to agree: Brad Penny was granted his release late Wednesday night after watching Wakefield's start from the bullpen. It was interesting to watch Penny walk out to the bullpen before the game -- he had his arm around Manny Delcarmen much of the way. A roster spot now is clear for Billy Wagner to join the team on Thursday.)
Wakefield tossed seven outstanding innings, allowing six hits and one run while striking out three and walking one. He allowed a run in the first inning when Paul Konerko hit a towering triple to center field, but he retired seven straight after that and diddn't allow another hit until Carlos Quentin's swinging bunt in the top of the fifth. He allowed two runners to reach base in the seventh inning but retired Alexei Ramirez on a pop fly to shortstop to end the inning -- and his night.
He threw 94 pitches. He threw 73 of them for strikes. He didn't miss the strike zone until the second inning.
"I had better command than I did in Pawtucket, obviously, throwing a lot of strikes with a lot of movement," he said. "That kind of set the tone early in the first inning."
Even better, just one knuckleball slipped out of the glove of catcher Victor Martinez -- who was wearing a first baseman's mitt to give himself a better chance.
"He's worked hard the last two weeks catching my sides and playing catch with me out in the outfield," Wakefield said. "For the first time catching me in a game situation with hitters up there, he did a phenomenal job."
All of a sudden, a rotation once in tatters looks like it's coming together. Josh Beckett and Jon Lester remain the aces at the top of the rotation, and Wakefield slides right into the role of No. 3 starter he filled during his All-Star first half. Clay Buchholz had a rough go of things on Monday but had strung together three solid starts before that, and Junichi Tazawa has allowed either one run or zero runs in two of his three stars in the major leagues.
On top of that, Daisuke Matsuzaka is on his way back looking slim and trim and reportedly throwing better than he ever did this spring.
The Red Sox could go into the final weeks of the pennant race with the same starting rotation with which they opened the season -- with the exception of Buchholz assuming the role Penny once did. Both Buchholz and Tazawa then would be candidates to pitch out of the bullpen in the playoffs or, if Matsuzaka hits a roadblock, to make a Game 4 start in the first round.
These things really do work themselves out in the end.
Saturday, August 22, 2009
Pitching rotation: From Point A to Point B
Tim Wakefield will start Wednesday for the Red Sox in place of Brad Penny, the veteran who might have seen his Red Sox career come to an inglorious end in similar fashion to John Smoltz two weeks ago.
Smoltz was rocked by the Yankees at Yankee Stadium, and Penny was rocked by the Yankees at Fenway Park to the tune of eight runs in four innings. Red Sox manager Terry Francona didn't come with the "At least he was throwing strikes" optimism he's brought to previous post-Penny press conferences, and he told reporters this afternoon that Penny had lost his spot in the Red Sox rotation.
"I told him he's got to kind of hang tight a little bit and get through today, and then we'll go from there," Francona said.
Odds are long that Penny will make another start for the Red Sox this season. It would be easy enough to "skip" Penny in the rotation this week, optioning Enrique Gonzalez to Triple-A Pawtucket to make room for Wakefield and filling out the bullpen with extra arms when rosters expand five days later.
The return of Wakefield and the marginalization of Penny means just more upheaval in a Red Sox pitching staff many believed to be the deepest in baseball coming out of spring training. Francona and Theo Epstein developed contingency plan after contingency plan -- and they've had to put almost all of them to use.
It's amazing, really, how the Red Sox depth chart, to borrow a phrase from football, has evolved from its Opening Day incarnation to the way it looks right now:
Late March
1. Josh Beckett
2. Jon Lester
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka
4. Tim Wakefield
5. Brad Penny
6. Justin Masterson (in the bullpen)
7. John Smoltz (rehabbing)
8. Clay Buchholz (in the minors)
9. Michael Bowden (in the minors)
10. Junichi Tazawa (in the minors)
Late August
1. Beckett (3.38 ERA)
2. Lester (3.58 ERA)
Not much has changed at the top of the rotation. Beckett and Lester each have double-digit wins and a couple of complete games to go along with a strikeout-to-walk ratio right around 3.5. Only nine pitchers in the American League have a strikeout-to-walk ratio of better than 3.0, and two of them are atop the Red Sox rotation.
(Roy Halladay, by the way, has 151 strikeouts and 23 walks -- a ratio of 6.57. Amazing.)
3. Buchholz (3.99 ERA)
One thing Buchholz does better than anyone on the Red Sox pitching staff is induce the ground ball. As a team, the Red Sox have a ground ball/fly ball ratio of 0.73; that is, they allow four fly balls for every three ground balls they induce. Both Beckett and Lester do better than most -- they have GB/FB ratios of 0.90 and 0.96, respectively -- but they both still allow more fly balls than ground balls.
Not Buchholz. The 25-year-old righty has a 1.30 GB/FB ratio in his seven starts this seasno, and he's getting outs via the ground ball at a rate of better than 2-to-1. (Double plays, of course, inflate that rate. Still, though, even ground-ball specialist Justin Masterson only had a rate of ground outs to air outs of 1.59.)
If the season ended today, Buchholz almost certainly would start Game 3 of the Red Sox's first-round playoff series.
4. Wakefield (4.31 ERA)
The All-Star knuckleballer surrendered just two hits and one run in 5 2/3 solid innings for Triple-A Pawtucket on Friday and reassured the Red Sox that he could field his position well enough to pitch in the major-league rotation. He had an ERA of 4.31 in 17 starts before he landed on the disabled list with a back injury and, later, with pain related to a sciatic problem in his calf.
"He can cover his position and he's a really good pitcher," Francona told reporters on Saturday, "so I think we're OK."
He gets the edge over the team's No. 5 starter because he, if healthy, almost certainly would pitch Game 4 of any first-round playoff series. His knuckleball might always be a wild card, but he's far more difficult to bring out of the bullpen because of it.
5. Tazawa (3.57 ERA)
The 23-year-old rookie erased the memory of Penny's disastrous start by tossing six shutout innings and, perhaps even more impressively, outpitching A.J. Burnett, the Yankees' No. 2 starter. Tazawa now has a 3.57 ERA in his four appearances in the major leagues and appears to be getting more and more comfortable with his role.
Barring injury, it appears he'll be the fifth starter in the Red Sox rotation the rest of the way.
One thing he did particularly well was attack the strike zone -- especially against the Yankees' lefties. Tazawa pitched mostly away from the lefties in the Detroit lineup in his first start two weeks ago, conceding the Green Monster in order not to give up solid contact on the inside half of the plate. That's a mark of a rookie pitcher, a pitcher who doesn't quite believe that his stuff is good enough on its own.
Against the Yankees, though, he pitched inside to lefties with both his fastball and his curveball, and he got results. Check out the two graphs. First is his strike-zone chart -- as viewed from behind the plate -- against Detroit on Aug. 11...
Smoltz was rocked by the Yankees at Yankee Stadium, and Penny was rocked by the Yankees at Fenway Park to the tune of eight runs in four innings. Red Sox manager Terry Francona didn't come with the "At least he was throwing strikes" optimism he's brought to previous post-Penny press conferences, and he told reporters this afternoon that Penny had lost his spot in the Red Sox rotation.
"I told him he's got to kind of hang tight a little bit and get through today, and then we'll go from there," Francona said.
Odds are long that Penny will make another start for the Red Sox this season. It would be easy enough to "skip" Penny in the rotation this week, optioning Enrique Gonzalez to Triple-A Pawtucket to make room for Wakefield and filling out the bullpen with extra arms when rosters expand five days later.
The return of Wakefield and the marginalization of Penny means just more upheaval in a Red Sox pitching staff many believed to be the deepest in baseball coming out of spring training. Francona and Theo Epstein developed contingency plan after contingency plan -- and they've had to put almost all of them to use.
It's amazing, really, how the Red Sox depth chart, to borrow a phrase from football, has evolved from its Opening Day incarnation to the way it looks right now:
Late March
1. Josh Beckett
2. Jon Lester
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka
4. Tim Wakefield
5. Brad Penny
6. Justin Masterson (in the bullpen)
7. John Smoltz (rehabbing)
8. Clay Buchholz (in the minors)
9. Michael Bowden (in the minors)
10. Junichi Tazawa (in the minors)
Late August
1. Beckett (3.38 ERA)
2. Lester (3.58 ERA)
Not much has changed at the top of the rotation. Beckett and Lester each have double-digit wins and a couple of complete games to go along with a strikeout-to-walk ratio right around 3.5. Only nine pitchers in the American League have a strikeout-to-walk ratio of better than 3.0, and two of them are atop the Red Sox rotation.
(Roy Halladay, by the way, has 151 strikeouts and 23 walks -- a ratio of 6.57. Amazing.)
3. Buchholz (3.99 ERA)
One thing Buchholz does better than anyone on the Red Sox pitching staff is induce the ground ball. As a team, the Red Sox have a ground ball/fly ball ratio of 0.73; that is, they allow four fly balls for every three ground balls they induce. Both Beckett and Lester do better than most -- they have GB/FB ratios of 0.90 and 0.96, respectively -- but they both still allow more fly balls than ground balls.
Not Buchholz. The 25-year-old righty has a 1.30 GB/FB ratio in his seven starts this seasno, and he's getting outs via the ground ball at a rate of better than 2-to-1. (Double plays, of course, inflate that rate. Still, though, even ground-ball specialist Justin Masterson only had a rate of ground outs to air outs of 1.59.)
If the season ended today, Buchholz almost certainly would start Game 3 of the Red Sox's first-round playoff series.
4. Wakefield (4.31 ERA)
The All-Star knuckleballer surrendered just two hits and one run in 5 2/3 solid innings for Triple-A Pawtucket on Friday and reassured the Red Sox that he could field his position well enough to pitch in the major-league rotation. He had an ERA of 4.31 in 17 starts before he landed on the disabled list with a back injury and, later, with pain related to a sciatic problem in his calf.
"He can cover his position and he's a really good pitcher," Francona told reporters on Saturday, "so I think we're OK."
He gets the edge over the team's No. 5 starter because he, if healthy, almost certainly would pitch Game 4 of any first-round playoff series. His knuckleball might always be a wild card, but he's far more difficult to bring out of the bullpen because of it.
5. Tazawa (3.57 ERA)
The 23-year-old rookie erased the memory of Penny's disastrous start by tossing six shutout innings and, perhaps even more impressively, outpitching A.J. Burnett, the Yankees' No. 2 starter. Tazawa now has a 3.57 ERA in his four appearances in the major leagues and appears to be getting more and more comfortable with his role.
Barring injury, it appears he'll be the fifth starter in the Red Sox rotation the rest of the way.
One thing he did particularly well was attack the strike zone -- especially against the Yankees' lefties. Tazawa pitched mostly away from the lefties in the Detroit lineup in his first start two weeks ago, conceding the Green Monster in order not to give up solid contact on the inside half of the plate. That's a mark of a rookie pitcher, a pitcher who doesn't quite believe that his stuff is good enough on its own.
Against the Yankees, though, he pitched inside to lefties with both his fastball and his curveball, and he got results. Check out the two graphs. First is his strike-zone chart -- as viewed from behind the plate -- against Detroit on Aug. 11...
... followed by his strike-zone chart against the Yankees on Saturday:
He also disguised his curveball far better in terms of release point, not giving away his pitch simply with the location of his hand when he let go of the ball. (The idea is for each pitch to come out of the hand in the same spot, so if the purple data points are distinguishable from the other data points, that's a problem.)
The first chart, again, is that start against Detroit...
... and the second is Saturday against New York.
Tazawa has all the goods to be a terrific major-league pitcher. He's not exactly the ground-ball specialist Buchholz is -- he recorded 11 fly-ball outs on Saturday and just four ground-ball outs -- but he's making a case right now to be part of the Red Sox rotation from the get-go next season.
6. Matsuzaka (rehabbing)
The pitcher who finished third in Cy Young voting is expected to make a rehab start in the Gulf Coast League on Monday and begin to climb the minor-league ladder from there. He might be a maddening pitcher at times, but he did throw seven shutout innings in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series a year ago and was viewed as the team's clear-cut No. 3 starter before the season.
If Matsuzaka returns in time to show off his progress before the season ends, he might again be that No. 3 starter in the team's postseason rotation.
7. Paul Byrd (in the minors)
Desperate times call for desperate measures, and the struggles of Penny and Smoltz prompted the Red Sox to sign Byrd to a contract in hopes he could round himself into form in time for the stretch run. The veteran threw 74 pitches in four innings for the PawSox on Wednesday, surrendering three runs on six hits, and he'll likely pitch twice more in Pawtucket before rosters expand on Sept. 1.
8. Bowden (in the minors)
Don't make too much of Bowden's disastrous two innings against the Yankees. For one thing, he's been a starting pitcher all season and not only did he have to pitch in relief on Friday, he had to do so (a) after having warmed up once already only to sit back down; (b) with runners on first and third and no outs; and (c) against a lineup already feeling good about itself, as Francona would say.
If Wakefield gets hurt again and neither Matsuzaka nor Byrd pan out, Bowden likely would become the team's fifth starter in September.
9. Brad Penny (in limbo)
Here's the chart from Friday that tells the story:
Penny threw his fastball with good velocity (95 miles an hour) and even offset it with changeups, sliders and curveballs. But everything he threw was right down the middle of the plate. You can't win pitching like that.
Penny indicated earlier this season he has no desire to pitch out of the bullpen. He might not, however, have any say in the matter. His repertoire actually makes him a better fit as a reliever than as a starter, and he'd have a vested interest in performing well in mop-up duty as he heads back out on the open market this winter. (You can bet the Mets will be watching.)
With rosters due to expand a week from Tuesday, the Red Sox appear to have no reason to release Penny outright. If they can stash him away for seven or eight days, they can use him in mop-up duty out of the bullpen. If something goes terribly wrong in mid-September -- such as half the starting rotation catching swine flu -- he can make a spot start. Otherwise, though, he's all finished pitching meaningful innings in Boston.
N/A. Smoltz (DFA'ed) and Masterson (traded to Cleveland)
Both are gone. Neither is coming back.
Masterson, though, earned his first win as a member of the Cleveland Indians on Thursday night, tossing 6 1/3 strong innings to beat the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. He now has a 3.78 ERA since the Red Sox traded him to the Indians as part of the Victor Martinez deal on July 24.
But you have to give something to get something, right?
Monday, August 10, 2009
Wakefield's simulated game
If you, like many, have never seen a simulated game, here's a taste:
Tim Wakefield stepped to the mound at Fenway Park around 3 this afternoon with George Kottaras behind the plate and Josh Reddick and Chris Woodward holding bats. Manager Terry Francona and pitching coach John Farrell watched from behind a screen set up in the middle of the field, and general manager Theo Epstein and two of his assistants watched from outside the foul lines.
Woodward hit first, working the count to 2-2 before hitting a bloop to shallow center field that likely would have been caught. (If not: Ghostrunner on first!) Reddick stepped in next. Woodward followed. And so on.
Wakefield threw 51 pitches to those two hitters, the equivalent of three innings. He then was asked to cover first base with bullpen coach Gary Tuck hitting ground balls and Farrell making throws as the first baseman.
The final exercise came when Woodward laid down a couple of bunts, and Wakefield had to scramble off the mound to field them. All went well until the final bunt -- on which the 42-year-old knuckleballer tumbled to the turf with a grimace and a loud grunt and had to throw to first base while seated on the grass. He came up with a grin, though, so all appeared to be well.
"I think he showed you the athleticism he possesses," Francona said with a smirk.
The Red Sox will wait to see how Wakefield feels in the morning before making any decisions. Pitching hasn't been the issue all along; the problem has been a balky calf that hasn't let him scramble off the mound to field bunts and ground balls. If that feels OK when he reports to the ballpark on Tuesday, he and the Red Sox will take the next step in his road back to the mound.
"His calf is not 100 percent," Francona said. "It doesn’t affect him when he pitches. But it’s going to be important to see how he bounces back after running around out there. … We don’t want to make a mistake and pitch him too quickly."
Tim Wakefield stepped to the mound at Fenway Park around 3 this afternoon with George Kottaras behind the plate and Josh Reddick and Chris Woodward holding bats. Manager Terry Francona and pitching coach John Farrell watched from behind a screen set up in the middle of the field, and general manager Theo Epstein and two of his assistants watched from outside the foul lines.
Woodward hit first, working the count to 2-2 before hitting a bloop to shallow center field that likely would have been caught. (If not: Ghostrunner on first!) Reddick stepped in next. Woodward followed. And so on.
Wakefield threw 51 pitches to those two hitters, the equivalent of three innings. He then was asked to cover first base with bullpen coach Gary Tuck hitting ground balls and Farrell making throws as the first baseman.
The final exercise came when Woodward laid down a couple of bunts, and Wakefield had to scramble off the mound to field them. All went well until the final bunt -- on which the 42-year-old knuckleballer tumbled to the turf with a grimace and a loud grunt and had to throw to first base while seated on the grass. He came up with a grin, though, so all appeared to be well.
"I think he showed you the athleticism he possesses," Francona said with a smirk.
The Red Sox will wait to see how Wakefield feels in the morning before making any decisions. Pitching hasn't been the issue all along; the problem has been a balky calf that hasn't let him scramble off the mound to field bunts and ground balls. If that feels OK when he reports to the ballpark on Tuesday, he and the Red Sox will take the next step in his road back to the mound.
"His calf is not 100 percent," Francona said. "It doesn’t affect him when he pitches. But it’s going to be important to see how he bounces back after running around out there. … We don’t want to make a mistake and pitch him too quickly."
Thursday, June 11, 2009
Let's calm down with Wakefield All-Star talk
A reporter asked Tim Wakefield after Wednesday night's win over the Yankees what he thought about the possibility of making the All-Star team.
"It would be huge," Wakefield said. "It’s one thing that you want in a career is to make an All-Star team. We’ve won two World Series. Just add it to the list of things that you say you’ve accomplished in your career. Obviously, it would be nice to make a team, and, hopefully, I can continue to pitch the way I’ve been pitching and finally make one after 14, 15 years."
He's right. It would be nice. He's had a terrific career, and the fact that he's never made an All-Star team is a little hard to believe. If he hadn't spent April of 1995 buried in the Pittsburgh Pirates organization and May of 1995 at Triple-A Pawtucket, he would have made the All-Star team that year. By the end of that season, he had a 2.95 ERA in 27 starts, including six complete games, and he finished third in the Cy Young Award voting.
But he's spent most of his career as a decent end-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. He's never had the outstanding numbers -- his ERA usually winds up between 4.50 and 5.00 -- to warrant inclusion in the All-Star Game.
This year, apparently, some are wondering if Wakefield has done enough to earn a spot. He all but carried the Red Sox rotation through the month of April, and his eight wins are good for a tie for second in the American League. Since wins are what it's all about, send him off to St. Louis, right?
It's not that simple. Wins, as should be obvious by now, are the byproduct of all kinds of things -- and by any other measurement, Wakefield has been a pretty average pitcher this season. Check out the American League pitching leaderboard:
ERA
1. Zack Grienke: 1.55
29. Kevin Slowey: 4.21
30. Andy Pettitte: 4.22
31. Bartolo Colon: 4.23
League average: 4.49
32. Tim Wakefield: 4.50
33. Carl Pavano: 4.62
34. Brian Bannister: 4.69
ERA+
1. Zack Grienke: 284
26. Scott Richmond: 110
27. Gil Meche: 108
28. Brian Tallet: 107
29. Andy Pettitte: 106
30. Tim Wakefield: 106
League average: 100
Walks/hits per inning pitched
1. Zack Grienke: 0.966
26. Jeff Niemann: 1.374
27. Joba Chamberlain: 1.399
28. Tim Wakefield: 1.400
29. Trevor Cahill: 1.402
30. Cliff Lee: 1.409
League average: 1.410
When you're picking All-Stars, you're picking guys like Grienke, Jered Weaver (2.31 ERA), Erik Bedard (2.47 ERA) and Roy Halladay (2.52 ERA). Even someone like Josh Beckett (3.77 ERA) might get left out despite the no-hit bids he's now turning in on a regular basis.
Wakefield has been a slightly-above-average pitcher this season. That's exactly what the Red Sox have needed him to be, and that's what he is. Against the Yankees on Wednesday, he allowed three earned runs in six innings -- the minimum standard for a quality start. He wasn't dominant. He was effective. He kept his team in the game.
"Every time we talk about Wake, you look up in the sixth or seventh, and you have a chance to win," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said. "He finds a way."
That's all the Red Sox are looking for out of their fifth starter. But it's not what you're looking for out of an All-Star.
"It would be huge," Wakefield said. "It’s one thing that you want in a career is to make an All-Star team. We’ve won two World Series. Just add it to the list of things that you say you’ve accomplished in your career. Obviously, it would be nice to make a team, and, hopefully, I can continue to pitch the way I’ve been pitching and finally make one after 14, 15 years."
He's right. It would be nice. He's had a terrific career, and the fact that he's never made an All-Star team is a little hard to believe. If he hadn't spent April of 1995 buried in the Pittsburgh Pirates organization and May of 1995 at Triple-A Pawtucket, he would have made the All-Star team that year. By the end of that season, he had a 2.95 ERA in 27 starts, including six complete games, and he finished third in the Cy Young Award voting.
But he's spent most of his career as a decent end-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. He's never had the outstanding numbers -- his ERA usually winds up between 4.50 and 5.00 -- to warrant inclusion in the All-Star Game.
This year, apparently, some are wondering if Wakefield has done enough to earn a spot. He all but carried the Red Sox rotation through the month of April, and his eight wins are good for a tie for second in the American League. Since wins are what it's all about, send him off to St. Louis, right?
It's not that simple. Wins, as should be obvious by now, are the byproduct of all kinds of things -- and by any other measurement, Wakefield has been a pretty average pitcher this season. Check out the American League pitching leaderboard:
ERA
1. Zack Grienke: 1.55
29. Kevin Slowey: 4.21
30. Andy Pettitte: 4.22
31. Bartolo Colon: 4.23
League average: 4.49
32. Tim Wakefield: 4.50
33. Carl Pavano: 4.62
34. Brian Bannister: 4.69
ERA+
1. Zack Grienke: 284
26. Scott Richmond: 110
27. Gil Meche: 108
28. Brian Tallet: 107
29. Andy Pettitte: 106
30. Tim Wakefield: 106
League average: 100
Walks/hits per inning pitched
1. Zack Grienke: 0.966
26. Jeff Niemann: 1.374
27. Joba Chamberlain: 1.399
28. Tim Wakefield: 1.400
29. Trevor Cahill: 1.402
30. Cliff Lee: 1.409
League average: 1.410
When you're picking All-Stars, you're picking guys like Grienke, Jered Weaver (2.31 ERA), Erik Bedard (2.47 ERA) and Roy Halladay (2.52 ERA). Even someone like Josh Beckett (3.77 ERA) might get left out despite the no-hit bids he's now turning in on a regular basis.
Wakefield has been a slightly-above-average pitcher this season. That's exactly what the Red Sox have needed him to be, and that's what he is. Against the Yankees on Wednesday, he allowed three earned runs in six innings -- the minimum standard for a quality start. He wasn't dominant. He was effective. He kept his team in the game.
"Every time we talk about Wake, you look up in the sixth or seventh, and you have a chance to win," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said. "He finds a way."
That's all the Red Sox are looking for out of their fifth starter. But it's not what you're looking for out of an All-Star.
Saturday, May 30, 2009
Red Sox rotation righting itself
Everything is returning to its proper order in the Red Sox rotation.
Tim Wakefield's last four starts:
23 1/3 IP, 19 ER, 13 K, 13 BB, .320 opponents' batting average
(His ERA has jumped from 2.92 to 4.55.)
Josh Beckett's last four starts:
28 IP, 6 ER, 23 K, 11 BB, .182 opponents' batting average
(His ERA has dropped from 6.75 to 4.60.)
If only Jon Lester could get himself on track...
Tim Wakefield's last four starts:
23 1/3 IP, 19 ER, 13 K, 13 BB, .320 opponents' batting average
(His ERA has jumped from 2.92 to 4.55.)
Josh Beckett's last four starts:
28 IP, 6 ER, 23 K, 11 BB, .182 opponents' batting average
(His ERA has dropped from 6.75 to 4.60.)
If only Jon Lester could get himself on track...
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Wakefield just doing what he does
We really do just remember the disasters, don't we?
Tim Wakefield is on a ridiculous run in his last three starts. He's thrown 23 innings and allowed three earned runs on 10 hits. His ERA is 1.17. Opponents are hitting .123 and slugging .173 against him.
He now has thrown at least seven innings and allowed two or fewer earned runs in three straight starts. Given his tendency to see the roof cave in every once in a while, it seems like back-to-back-to-back outstanding starts might be something that's getting toward the unprecedented side for him.
You might wonder, in fact, if this is as good of a run as he's been on in his 15 years with the Red Sox.
Nope. Not even close.
If he's going to match his longest streak for extra-quality-starts (EQS) -- a stat we'll make up right here and define as 7 IP or more and 2 ER or fewer -- he's still only halfway there.
Wakefield went six straight starts in the fall of 2002 without allowing more than two earned runs or pitching fewer than seven innings. Twice, in fact, he allowed just one earned run in eight innings. He threw 45 innings altogether and allowed seven earned runs: a 1.40 ERA over six starts.
(You remember 2002, right? Rey Sanchez? Tony Clark? Carlos Baerga? Jose Offerman? Dustin Hermanson? Bobby Howry? We're not exactly talking about a sensational supporting cast here.)
All of this, of course, came after he'd spent almost the entire season pitching out of the bullpen. Frank Castillo had to be yanked from the starting rotation following a series of disastrous starts; Rolando Arrojo landed on the disabled list and later in the bullpen as well.
Wakefield never again would be asked to pitch out of the bullpen on any kind of regular basis.
OK, if that's the longest run of super-quality starts, this run now must be the second-longest, right?
Nope. Still not close.
It was just a year ago -- just a year ago! -- that Wakefield put up the following four pitching lines in succession in late May and early June:
* 8 IP, 5 H, 1 ER
* 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER
* 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER
* 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER
Wakefield, in fact, has strung together four straight extra-quality-starts three times in his Red Sox career -- besides that run last year, he also did it in 1997 and 2005. He's strung together three straight extra-quality starts five times -- in 1995, 1998, 2005, 2007 and now in 2009.
To put it another way, here's the longest EQS streak for a few Red Sox notables since 1995:
* Pedro Martinez: 8
Pedro also had streaks of seven, six and five twice. But he's in a class by himself. We knew that already.
* Tim Wakefield: 6
* Bronson Arroyo: 3
* Roger Clemens: 3
* Josh Beckett: 3
* Tom Gordon: 3
* Jon Lester: 3
* Derek Lowe: 3
* Curt Schilling: 3
* Matt Clement: 2
* Daisuke Matsuzaka: 2
* Bret Saberhagen: 2
* David Wells: 2
Wakefield, right now, has as long of as many consecutive 7 IP-2 ER games as Josh Beckett has had in his short but brilliant Red Sox career.
Way to go, George Kottaras.
Tim Wakefield is on a ridiculous run in his last three starts. He's thrown 23 innings and allowed three earned runs on 10 hits. His ERA is 1.17. Opponents are hitting .123 and slugging .173 against him.
He now has thrown at least seven innings and allowed two or fewer earned runs in three straight starts. Given his tendency to see the roof cave in every once in a while, it seems like back-to-back-to-back outstanding starts might be something that's getting toward the unprecedented side for him.
You might wonder, in fact, if this is as good of a run as he's been on in his 15 years with the Red Sox.
Nope. Not even close.
If he's going to match his longest streak for extra-quality-starts (EQS) -- a stat we'll make up right here and define as 7 IP or more and 2 ER or fewer -- he's still only halfway there.
Wakefield went six straight starts in the fall of 2002 without allowing more than two earned runs or pitching fewer than seven innings. Twice, in fact, he allowed just one earned run in eight innings. He threw 45 innings altogether and allowed seven earned runs: a 1.40 ERA over six starts.
(You remember 2002, right? Rey Sanchez? Tony Clark? Carlos Baerga? Jose Offerman? Dustin Hermanson? Bobby Howry? We're not exactly talking about a sensational supporting cast here.)
All of this, of course, came after he'd spent almost the entire season pitching out of the bullpen. Frank Castillo had to be yanked from the starting rotation following a series of disastrous starts; Rolando Arrojo landed on the disabled list and later in the bullpen as well.
Wakefield never again would be asked to pitch out of the bullpen on any kind of regular basis.
OK, if that's the longest run of super-quality starts, this run now must be the second-longest, right?
Nope. Still not close.
It was just a year ago -- just a year ago! -- that Wakefield put up the following four pitching lines in succession in late May and early June:
* 8 IP, 5 H, 1 ER
* 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER
* 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER
* 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER
Wakefield, in fact, has strung together four straight extra-quality-starts three times in his Red Sox career -- besides that run last year, he also did it in 1997 and 2005. He's strung together three straight extra-quality starts five times -- in 1995, 1998, 2005, 2007 and now in 2009.
To put it another way, here's the longest EQS streak for a few Red Sox notables since 1995:
* Pedro Martinez: 8
Pedro also had streaks of seven, six and five twice. But he's in a class by himself. We knew that already.
* Tim Wakefield: 6
* Bronson Arroyo: 3
* Roger Clemens: 3
* Josh Beckett: 3
* Tom Gordon: 3
* Jon Lester: 3
* Derek Lowe: 3
* Curt Schilling: 3
* Matt Clement: 2
* Daisuke Matsuzaka: 2
* Bret Saberhagen: 2
* David Wells: 2
Wakefield, right now, has as long of as many consecutive 7 IP-2 ER games as Josh Beckett has had in his short but brilliant Red Sox career.
Way to go, George Kottaras.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Wakefield in exclusive company, sort of
"Tim, the list of guys who have thrown back-to-back complete games at your age is very small," one reporter told Tim Wakefield, prefacing a question in Wednesday afternoon's postgame press conference.
"Is there only one?" Wakefield cut in to ask.
"No, there's a few."
"Dang it," Wakefield said.
The 42-year-old knuckleballer has a long way to go to break that particular record; Phil Niekro turned the trick in July of 1986, three months after he'd turned 47.
Still, though, he's the oldest pitcher to throw back-to-back complete games in Red Sox history -- and he's the oldest pitcher to turn the trick since Charlie Hough in 1992.
It doesn't even matter that he backed into the feat. He probably wouldn't have pitched nine innings, but when umpires called the game in the bottom of the seventh inning, he had himself his second straight complete game. (In case you've been living under a rock, he threw a complete game in Oakland a week ago, taking a no-hitter into the eighth inning and finishing the game from there to bail out a totally depleted Red Sox bullpen.)
"I'll take it," he said.
He allowed one earned run in seven innings, striking out four and walking just one. He ran into a bit of trouble in the top of the fifth but wiggled out when he got Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer to pop out with the bases loaded.
Other than that, he was flawless. By the time the Red Sox hit three two-run home runs in the first three innings, the game was all but over.
"I was able to make some pitches I don't normally throw," he said. "I threw some fastballs, got a strikeout on a fastball today and got a strikeout on a curveball today. I was able to throw other pitches I normally didn't throw; I was able to pitch to the scoreboard. (The offense) made my job a lot easier today."
He also once again rescued the Red Sox bullpen. A week ago, he needed to go deep because a series of short outings by starting pitchers had all but exhausted any options Terry Francona had for the late innings. On Wednesday, the doubleheader meant Red Sox pitchers would have to throw 18 innings in a single day; a short outing by Wakefield would have put a big onus on Brad Penny to pitch deep into the nightcap.
No worries. At this point, thanks to Tuesday's rainout and Thursday's off-day, Francona might be forced to lift Penny early just to get his bullpen a little bit of work.
"It wasn't as urgent as it was in Oakland, knowing that the guys had a breather last night going into today," Wakefield said. "We had a full 'pen. I was able to go seven, and the game got called. I fell into that one by accident, so now we've got another full bullpen for tonight's game."
"Is there only one?" Wakefield cut in to ask.
"No, there's a few."
"Dang it," Wakefield said.
The 42-year-old knuckleballer has a long way to go to break that particular record; Phil Niekro turned the trick in July of 1986, three months after he'd turned 47.
Still, though, he's the oldest pitcher to throw back-to-back complete games in Red Sox history -- and he's the oldest pitcher to turn the trick since Charlie Hough in 1992.
It doesn't even matter that he backed into the feat. He probably wouldn't have pitched nine innings, but when umpires called the game in the bottom of the seventh inning, he had himself his second straight complete game. (In case you've been living under a rock, he threw a complete game in Oakland a week ago, taking a no-hitter into the eighth inning and finishing the game from there to bail out a totally depleted Red Sox bullpen.)
"I'll take it," he said.
He allowed one earned run in seven innings, striking out four and walking just one. He ran into a bit of trouble in the top of the fifth but wiggled out when he got Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer to pop out with the bases loaded.
Other than that, he was flawless. By the time the Red Sox hit three two-run home runs in the first three innings, the game was all but over.
"I was able to make some pitches I don't normally throw," he said. "I threw some fastballs, got a strikeout on a fastball today and got a strikeout on a curveball today. I was able to throw other pitches I normally didn't throw; I was able to pitch to the scoreboard. (The offense) made my job a lot easier today."
He also once again rescued the Red Sox bullpen. A week ago, he needed to go deep because a series of short outings by starting pitchers had all but exhausted any options Terry Francona had for the late innings. On Wednesday, the doubleheader meant Red Sox pitchers would have to throw 18 innings in a single day; a short outing by Wakefield would have put a big onus on Brad Penny to pitch deep into the nightcap.
No worries. At this point, thanks to Tuesday's rainout and Thursday's off-day, Francona might be forced to lift Penny early just to get his bullpen a little bit of work.
"It wasn't as urgent as it was in Oakland, knowing that the guys had a breather last night going into today," Wakefield said. "We had a full 'pen. I was able to go seven, and the game got called. I fell into that one by accident, so now we've got another full bullpen for tonight's game."
Saturday, April 11, 2009
What to do with Wakefield?
Terry Francona and Theo Epstein always profess patience, but you have to believe the two have a contingency plan in place in the event Tim Wakefield looks as bad all season as he looked on Friday night.
(Make no mistake: Wakefield looked bad on Friday night. It went down as a quality start -- six innings pitched and three earned runs -- even though he walked five and would have been in big trouble had Jeff Mathis' line drive gone anywhere but straight at Jason Bay.)
No one in the Red Sox clubhouse is going to acknowledge any type of contingency plan. That would undermine Wakefield, a pitcher who's still as capable of going seven strong innings as anyone in the Red Sox rotation. But the knuckleball is so unpredi
Option A: Stay patient. Do nothing.
It's one start. Wakefield could easily string together a couple of strong starts over the next few weeks -- something no one knows better than Francona.
Option B: Panic right now. Cut Wakefield. Bring up Buchholz.
The top prospect bombed when he opened last season as starter; he had a 2-3 record and a 5.53 ERA in mid-May and an 0-6 record and an 8.23 ERA when he got a second chance in July and August. He looked great -- spectacular, really -- this spring. But there's no doubt that last year's disaster has to be in the back of the minds of everyone involved.
The problem is that there's no fallback should Buchholz falter again. To clear a spot, the Red Sox would have to cut Wakefield; it's hard to imagine the knuckleballer being willing to come back should the Red Sox not get what they expect from Buchholz. And if John Smoltz isn't ready, all of a sudden, there's a gigantic hole in their rotation.
(In case you're wondering: Buchholz is set to start for Triple-A Pawtucket on Sunday -- against old friend Casey Fossum.)
Option C: Stay patient -- for now. Be ready to pull the trigger on a move once John Smoltz is ready.
Does anyone else feel like Memorial Day is something of a deadline for Wakefield to justify his spot in the Red Sox rotation? No one wants to rush Buchholz -- even OneIf poll voters said they'd rather see the prospect in the major leagues in July than in April or May.
But when John Smoltz is ready to pitch, the Red Sox are going to want to make space for him. He's a future Hall of Famer with an impeccable track record; even before his surgery a year ago, he had a 2.oo ERA through five starts. He hasn't had an ERA over 4.00 since 1994.
The Red Sox have said the rotation will work itself out. That might mean someone getting hurt; that might mean someone pitching ineffectively. But ineffectiveness in April and May isn't necessarily an indicator of things to come. A year ago, Wakefield had a 4.70 ERA on Memorial Day and proceeded to toss seven strong innings in each of his next six starts, compiling a 2.14 ERA in the process.
Still, though, if Wakefield pitches for the next two months the way he pitched on Friday night, there's no way a World Series contender can justify leaving him in the rotation. His contract might be reasonable, but he still has to pitch better than Red Sox management imagines Smoltz or Buchholz would pitch.
Wakefield isn't going anywhere -- for now. If he's not pitching well when Memorial Day comes around, though, his rotation spot (and his roster spot) might be in serious jeopardy.
(Make no mistake: Wakefield looked bad on Friday night. It went down as a quality start -- six innings pitched and three earned runs -- even though he walked five and would have been in big trouble had Jeff Mathis' line drive gone anywhere but straight at Jason Bay.)
No one in the Red Sox clubhouse is going to acknowledge any type of contingency plan. That would undermine Wakefield, a pitcher who's still as capable of going seven strong innings as anyone in the Red Sox rotation. But the knuckleball is so unpredi
Option A: Stay patient. Do nothing.
It's one start. Wakefield could easily string together a couple of strong starts over the next few weeks -- something no one knows better than Francona.
Option B: Panic right now. Cut Wakefield. Bring up Buchholz.
The top prospect bombed when he opened last season as starter; he had a 2-3 record and a 5.53 ERA in mid-May and an 0-6 record and an 8.23 ERA when he got a second chance in July and August. He looked great -- spectacular, really -- this spring. But there's no doubt that last year's disaster has to be in the back of the minds of everyone involved.
The problem is that there's no fallback should Buchholz falter again. To clear a spot, the Red Sox would have to cut Wakefield; it's hard to imagine the knuckleballer being willing to come back should the Red Sox not get what they expect from Buchholz. And if John Smoltz isn't ready, all of a sudden, there's a gigantic hole in their rotation.
(In case you're wondering: Buchholz is set to start for Triple-A Pawtucket on Sunday -- against old friend Casey Fossum.)
Option C: Stay patient -- for now. Be ready to pull the trigger on a move once John Smoltz is ready.
Does anyone else feel like Memorial Day is something of a deadline for Wakefield to justify his spot in the Red Sox rotation? No one wants to rush Buchholz -- even OneIf poll voters said they'd rather see the prospect in the major leagues in July than in April or May.
But when John Smoltz is ready to pitch, the Red Sox are going to want to make space for him. He's a future Hall of Famer with an impeccable track record; even before his surgery a year ago, he had a 2.oo ERA through five starts. He hasn't had an ERA over 4.00 since 1994.
The Red Sox have said the rotation will work itself out. That might mean someone getting hurt; that might mean someone pitching ineffectively. But ineffectiveness in April and May isn't necessarily an indicator of things to come. A year ago, Wakefield had a 4.70 ERA on Memorial Day and proceeded to toss seven strong innings in each of his next six starts, compiling a 2.14 ERA in the process.
Still, though, if Wakefield pitches for the next two months the way he pitched on Friday night, there's no way a World Series contender can justify leaving him in the rotation. His contract might be reasonable, but he still has to pitch better than Red Sox management imagines Smoltz or Buchholz would pitch.
Wakefield isn't going anywhere -- for now. If he's not pitching well when Memorial Day comes around, though, his rotation spot (and his roster spot) might be in serious jeopardy.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Wakefield not as "rusty" as he looked
The Boston Herald claimed Tim Wakefield "labors in 1st spring start" and quoted the veteran knuckleballer as saying he "felt a little rusty" when pitching out of the stretch. The evidence: Wakefield allowed three runs (two earned) on five hits and issued two walks in his two innings of work against the Twins on Wednesday night.
Wakefield's start, though, is a good example of why you can't put too much emphasis on statistics -- particularly in a small sample size. Let's look more in-depth at Wakefield's outing:
(^ denotes pitching out of the stretch)
First inning
* Wakefield induces a lazy ground ball to shortstop on an 0-1 pitch to Alexi Casilla.
* Wakefield gets Nick Punto to pop the ball into the middle of the infield on another 0-1 pitch.
* He hangs a knuckleball on a 1-1 pitch to Justin Morneau; the power-hitting first baseman drills it up the left-center-field gap for a double.
*^ He walks Michael Cuddyer on a knuckleball inside.
*^ Jason Kubel pops to third to retire the side.
Second inning
* Wakefield sees Delmon Young go up and get a knuckleball and hit a ground ball between third and short for a base hit -- the type of ground ball that would have been an out had it been hit four feet in either direction.
*^ Brian Buscher hits a hard line drive off the glove of Kevin Youkilis for yet another infield single. Young goes to third.
*^ Wakefield drops a knuckleball in on the hands of Mike Redmond only to see Redmond bloop it over Dustin Pedroia but in front of Brad Wilkerson for a single that scores Young.
*^ Jason Pridie goes after a first-pitch fastball and lofts a sacrifice fly to center field.
*^ Wakefield gets a break when Alexi Casilla chases a 3-0 knuckleball up and out of the strike zone, but Casilla then fists a knuckleball up and over Kevin Youkilis at first base, a bloop hit so awkward that Casilla hesitated a little on his way out of the batter's box.
*^ Casilla steals second.
*^ Punto flies lazily to left.
*^ Morneau walks on four pitches.
*^ Wakefield misses on back-to-back pitches to Cuddyer before the outfielder reaches for one on the outer half and dribbles it to second base to retire the side.
The end result?
Wakefield allowed two hard-hit balls in two innings -- the double to Morneau that didn't hurt him, and the line drive right at Youkilis that put runners on first and third with no outs. That's it. The leadoff single from Delmon Young is going to be an out 75 percent of the time; the RBI singles from Mike Redmond and Alexi Casilla are going to find gloves 90 percent of the time.
Now, Wakefield's inability to find the plate in key spots with two outs wasn't good; you don't want to put any extra runners on base in front of a slugger like Kubel. But that's the knuckleball -- and that's the sort of thing that's going to come along as the spring progresses.
To look at the box score and deduce that Wakefield had to labor through two innings because he was charged with three runs, though, is to miss the point.
Wakefield's start, though, is a good example of why you can't put too much emphasis on statistics -- particularly in a small sample size. Let's look more in-depth at Wakefield's outing:
(^ denotes pitching out of the stretch)
First inning
* Wakefield induces a lazy ground ball to shortstop on an 0-1 pitch to Alexi Casilla.
* Wakefield gets Nick Punto to pop the ball into the middle of the infield on another 0-1 pitch.
* He hangs a knuckleball on a 1-1 pitch to Justin Morneau; the power-hitting first baseman drills it up the left-center-field gap for a double.
*^ He walks Michael Cuddyer on a knuckleball inside.
*^ Jason Kubel pops to third to retire the side.
Second inning
* Wakefield sees Delmon Young go up and get a knuckleball and hit a ground ball between third and short for a base hit -- the type of ground ball that would have been an out had it been hit four feet in either direction.
*^ Brian Buscher hits a hard line drive off the glove of Kevin Youkilis for yet another infield single. Young goes to third.
*^ Wakefield drops a knuckleball in on the hands of Mike Redmond only to see Redmond bloop it over Dustin Pedroia but in front of Brad Wilkerson for a single that scores Young.
*^ Jason Pridie goes after a first-pitch fastball and lofts a sacrifice fly to center field.
*^ Wakefield gets a break when Alexi Casilla chases a 3-0 knuckleball up and out of the strike zone, but Casilla then fists a knuckleball up and over Kevin Youkilis at first base, a bloop hit so awkward that Casilla hesitated a little on his way out of the batter's box.
*^ Casilla steals second.
*^ Punto flies lazily to left.
*^ Morneau walks on four pitches.
*^ Wakefield misses on back-to-back pitches to Cuddyer before the outfielder reaches for one on the outer half and dribbles it to second base to retire the side.
The end result?
Wakefield allowed two hard-hit balls in two innings -- the double to Morneau that didn't hurt him, and the line drive right at Youkilis that put runners on first and third with no outs. That's it. The leadoff single from Delmon Young is going to be an out 75 percent of the time; the RBI singles from Mike Redmond and Alexi Casilla are going to find gloves 90 percent of the time.
Now, Wakefield's inability to find the plate in key spots with two outs wasn't good; you don't want to put any extra runners on base in front of a slugger like Kubel. But that's the knuckleball -- and that's the sort of thing that's going to come along as the spring progresses.
To look at the box score and deduce that Wakefield had to labor through two innings because he was charged with three runs, though, is to miss the point.
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Only one real position battle in camp
Terry Francona hasn't put his left hand on the Bible. He's not in any sort of courtroom. He has no obligation to tell anyone the truth.
But that doesn't mean we can't call him on it.
So far this spring, Francona has used the phrase "wide open" when talking about the competition between Jed Lowrie and Julio Lugo to start at shortstop. Francona also has said, about young pitchers Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden, "I'm not saying they can't make the ballclub, but we don't have to rush them and can use them when they're ready to win."
And when reporters asked Francona about the three catchers competing to back up Jason Varitek behind the plate, he responded, "We definitely need to take the six, seven weeks that we have down here and try to get a better understanding of where we are with all three of those guys."
In only one of those cases, however, can we be expected to believe that Francona was telling the truth.
The shortstop job is not wide open.
Buchholz and Bowden, in fact, cannot make the ballclub.
Only at backup catcher -- where George Kottaras has turned down a chance to represent his country in the World Baseball Classic to improve his chances of impressing the coaching staff -- is there a true competition in which the best man will win.
Just look at the evidence.
Sean McAdam of the Boston Herald made the deduction earlier this week that Julio Lugo, barring injury, will open the season as the Red Sox's starting shortstop. His reasoning was fourfold:
1. Lugo isn't comfortable playing anywhere other than shortstop, meaning he can't settle into a role as a utility infielder the way Lowrie can. Francona has said he's going to play Lugo exclusively at shortstop this spring "in fairness to him and Jed," but he's going to give Lowrie some starts at third base when Mike Lowell needs a day off. Out of fairness. Right.
2. If he's healthy, Lugo has shown in the past he's a better player than he's been in his two season in Boston.
3. Lugo will make $9 million for each of the next two seasons, and even the Red Sox aren't going to want to shell out $9 million for 200 or 250 at-bats.
4. Even if the Red Sox wanted to trade Lugo, they have to play him to showcase him.
Lowrie might back the Red Sox into a corner with a sensational spring. But if the Red Sox don't want to turn Lugo into a utility infielder, they have two choices: Start him or cut him. The $18 million left on Lugo's contract makes that a no-brainer.
Here's the thing: In the same way Lowrie is out of luck no matter how he performs this spring, so too are top prospects Buchholz and Bowden. Both have big-league experience; both are at the stage in their development when they should get 20 or 25 starts in the big-league rotation.
And both, barring at least one disabled-list-caliber injury, are going to start the season at Triple-A Pawtucket.
The Red Sox have three Cy Young-caliber starting pitchers in Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Those three, in a to-be-determined order, will start the season-opening set against the Tampa Bay Rays.
After that comes Tim Wakefield, to whom the Red Sox have committed $4 million this season. And after that comes Brad Penny, to whom the Red Sox have committed $5 million as well as performance bonuses that could earn him another $3 million should he pitch 200 innings.
Neither Wakefield nor Penny is going to end up in Pawtucket. Neither Wakefield nor Penny is going to end up in the bullpen. The Red Sox have the same two choices with Wakefield and Penny -- and John Smoltz when he returns from his surgery -- that they do with Lugo: Start them or cut them. Wakefield is far from dominant, but his recurring $4 million option remains one of the best bargains in baseball so long as he can pitch 150 innings and deliver an ERA south of 4.75 or 5.00.
The Red Sox aren't averse to eating contracts; they did so when they released Julian Tavarez less than a year ago. But it doesn't make much sense to cut a player and still have to pay him unless the team know for a fact it's going to get more value from that player's replacement. Buchholz was a disaster last season; Bowden has all of five big-league innings under his belt. There's no way of knowing if either would outperform Wakefield.
Even Lowrie, for all of his successes last season, can't be considered a sure thing at shortstop until he proves he can hit better than .222 against lefties. The Red Sox would have to eat so much money if they released Lugo they have no choice but to play him,
Josh Bard, Dusty Brown and George Kottaras all have an equal chance to win a roster spot; Brown appears to be the underdog simply because he can be optioned to Triple-A Pawtucket without having to clear waivers. The other two, however, have to make the roster or be designated for assignment -- and that means the best man really will win the job.
Hey, look: An actual competition! What a concept!
But that doesn't mean we can't call him on it.
So far this spring, Francona has used the phrase "wide open" when talking about the competition between Jed Lowrie and Julio Lugo to start at shortstop. Francona also has said, about young pitchers Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden, "I'm not saying they can't make the ballclub, but we don't have to rush them and can use them when they're ready to win."
And when reporters asked Francona about the three catchers competing to back up Jason Varitek behind the plate, he responded, "We definitely need to take the six, seven weeks that we have down here and try to get a better understanding of where we are with all three of those guys."
In only one of those cases, however, can we be expected to believe that Francona was telling the truth.
The shortstop job is not wide open.
Buchholz and Bowden, in fact, cannot make the ballclub.
Only at backup catcher -- where George Kottaras has turned down a chance to represent his country in the World Baseball Classic to improve his chances of impressing the coaching staff -- is there a true competition in which the best man will win.
Just look at the evidence.
Sean McAdam of the Boston Herald made the deduction earlier this week that Julio Lugo, barring injury, will open the season as the Red Sox's starting shortstop. His reasoning was fourfold:
1. Lugo isn't comfortable playing anywhere other than shortstop, meaning he can't settle into a role as a utility infielder the way Lowrie can. Francona has said he's going to play Lugo exclusively at shortstop this spring "in fairness to him and Jed," but he's going to give Lowrie some starts at third base when Mike Lowell needs a day off. Out of fairness. Right.
2. If he's healthy, Lugo has shown in the past he's a better player than he's been in his two season in Boston.
3. Lugo will make $9 million for each of the next two seasons, and even the Red Sox aren't going to want to shell out $9 million for 200 or 250 at-bats.
4. Even if the Red Sox wanted to trade Lugo, they have to play him to showcase him.
Lowrie might back the Red Sox into a corner with a sensational spring. But if the Red Sox don't want to turn Lugo into a utility infielder, they have two choices: Start him or cut him. The $18 million left on Lugo's contract makes that a no-brainer.
Here's the thing: In the same way Lowrie is out of luck no matter how he performs this spring, so too are top prospects Buchholz and Bowden. Both have big-league experience; both are at the stage in their development when they should get 20 or 25 starts in the big-league rotation.
And both, barring at least one disabled-list-caliber injury, are going to start the season at Triple-A Pawtucket.
The Red Sox have three Cy Young-caliber starting pitchers in Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Those three, in a to-be-determined order, will start the season-opening set against the Tampa Bay Rays.
After that comes Tim Wakefield, to whom the Red Sox have committed $4 million this season. And after that comes Brad Penny, to whom the Red Sox have committed $5 million as well as performance bonuses that could earn him another $3 million should he pitch 200 innings.
Neither Wakefield nor Penny is going to end up in Pawtucket. Neither Wakefield nor Penny is going to end up in the bullpen. The Red Sox have the same two choices with Wakefield and Penny -- and John Smoltz when he returns from his surgery -- that they do with Lugo: Start them or cut them. Wakefield is far from dominant, but his recurring $4 million option remains one of the best bargains in baseball so long as he can pitch 150 innings and deliver an ERA south of 4.75 or 5.00.
The Red Sox aren't averse to eating contracts; they did so when they released Julian Tavarez less than a year ago. But it doesn't make much sense to cut a player and still have to pay him unless the team know for a fact it's going to get more value from that player's replacement. Buchholz was a disaster last season; Bowden has all of five big-league innings under his belt. There's no way of knowing if either would outperform Wakefield.
Even Lowrie, for all of his successes last season, can't be considered a sure thing at shortstop until he proves he can hit better than .222 against lefties. The Red Sox would have to eat so much money if they released Lugo they have no choice but to play him,
Josh Bard, Dusty Brown and George Kottaras all have an equal chance to win a roster spot; Brown appears to be the underdog simply because he can be optioned to Triple-A Pawtucket without having to clear waivers. The other two, however, have to make the roster or be designated for assignment -- and that means the best man really will win the job.
Hey, look: An actual competition! What a concept!
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
Countdown to spring training: Starting pitching
Truck Day is Friday. Pitchers and catchers report on Feb. 13. Spring training games start Feb. 25. The American League champion Rays come to Fenway Park on April 6.
It might be snowing outside -- at least, it's snowing here at One If By Land headquarters on the South Shore. But it's almost time for baseball to begin! With that in mind, we'll examine a few storylines at each position on the field for the Red Sox -- starting with, well, the starters.
The Red Sox enter the season with perhaps the best 1-2-3 punch in the American League and plenty of depth -- though no one beyond those first three starters can be classified as anything close to a sure thing.
Locks
Josh Beckett (will turn 29 years old in May)
2008: 12-10, 4.03 ERA, 172 K, 34 BB
2007: 20-7, 3.27 ERA, 194 K, 40 BB
2006: 16-11, 5.01 ERA, 158 K, 74 BB
An oblique injury caused him problems in the postseason, where he previously had made himself a reputation as one of the best the game has ever seen. (Despite allowing 14 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings last postseason, he still has a 2.90 ERA in his 13 postseason appearances.) There's no reason he can't win 17 or 18 games and turn in a sub-3.50 ERA and regain his rightful place as the ace of the staff.
Jon Lester (just turned 25 years old)
2008: 16-6, 3.21 ERA, 152 K, 66 BB
2007: 4-0, 4.57 ERA, 50 K, 31 BB; season interrupted by lymphoma
2006: 7-2, 4.76 ERA, 60 K, 43 BB
The cancer is long gone. The only issue now, in fact, might be the wear and tear on his shoulder from his first 200-inning season. He threw 106 innings in 2003, 91 innings in 2004, 148 1/3 innings in 2005, 128 1/3 innings in 2006, 153 innings in 2007 and then 210 1/3 in 2008. That's a big jump. Terry Francona raved last fall about the weight he's added to his body, and that's certainly going to help his endurance. But the Red Sox will have to be wary if he's on a 200-inning pace midway through this season -- even if he's once again pitching like a Cy Young Award candidate.
Daisuke Matsuzaka (turned 28 years old last September)
2008: 18-3, 2.90 ERA, 154 K, 94 BB
2007: 15-12, 4.40 ERA, 201 K, 80 BB
The notorious nibbler walked a league-worst 94 batters a year ago and averaged an even 100 pitchers per start even though he lasted approximately 5 2/3 innings per start. That was a problem. But just about everything else went well -- opponents hit .211 off him for the season, he allowed just 12 home runs, and he allowed either zero earned runs or one earned run in 12 of his 29 starts. And if he can figure out how to throw strikes more consistently -- he walked four or more hitters in 11 of his 29 starts -- he might get the Cy Young consideration that his numbers say he deserved last season.
In the mix
Clay Buchholz (will turn 25 in August)
2008 (majors): 2-9, 6.75 ERA, 72 K, 41 BB
2008 (minors): 5-2, 2.30 ERA, 61 K, 18 BB
2007 (majors): 3-1, 1.59 ERA, 22 K, 10 BB
2007 (minors): 8-5, 2.44 ERA, 171 K, 35 BB
Here's one thing people haven't discussed much about Buchholz -- he seemed to run into some extraordinary bad luck during his big-league stint last season. A pitcher can only control so much on his own. There isn't a whole lot of luck involved in walks or strikeouts -- that depends on the pitcher's skill. There isn't a whole lot of luck involved in home runs, either. If a hitter crushes one, that's usually because the pitcher made a bad pitch. But almost everything else is out of the pitcher's hands. If the pitcher has runners on first and third with one out, a ground ball could either end the inning or keep everything rolling depending on whether it's hit right at the third baseman or in the hole between third base and shortstop.
The stat BAPIP -- batting average on balls put in play -- can be an indicator of a pitcher who's seeing a lot of ground balls find those holes or fly balls drop between outfielders. A pitcher with a high BAPIP often can expect to see his numbers improve the next season as his luck returns to a more normal level.
Here are the BAPIP numbers for the top five Red Sox starters last season:
Wakefield: .240
Matsuzaka: .260
Lester: .300
Beckett: .318
Buchholz: .355
Brad Penny (will turn 31 in May)
2008: 6-9, 6.27 ERA, 51 K, 48 BB
2007: 16-4, 3.03 ERA, 136 K, 73 BB
2006: 16-9, 4.33 ERA, 148 K, 54 BB
Injuries cost Penny a good chunk of his season a year ago -- he missed half of June, all of July, half of August and most of September. And when he did pitch, the results weren't good. He gave up 10 runs in 4 2/3 innings in a loss to the Mets in May, and he gave up seven runs a in 3 2/3 innings in a loss to the Tigers in June. If those injuries remain a factor, he won't spend much time on the Fenway Park mound. But if those injuries are behind him, the Red Sox might have themselves the steal of the free-agent season.
Consider the following comparison:
Player A (249 games) : 94-75, 4.06 ERA, 1,032 K, 475 BB
Player B (220 games) 86-67, 4.02 ERA, 1,132 K, 524 BB
Player A is the career of Brad Penny. Player B is the first nine seasons of the career of Jason Schmidt -- who then went 18-7 with a 3.20 ERA and 251 strikeouts in his 10th season.
Curt Schilling (just turned 42)
Just kidding.
John Smoltz (will turn 42 in May)
2008: 3-2, 2.57 ERA, 36 K, 8 BB
2007: 14-8, 3.11 ERA, 197 K, 47 BB
2006: 16-9, 3.49 ERA, 211 K, 55 BB
Shoulder surgery ended last season for Smoltz after just six starts. Some wondered if he'd join former Braves rotation-mate Greg Maddux in retirement -- and on the Hall of Fame ballot for 2014. But he signed an incentive-laden contract with the Red Sox this winter with an eye on the second half of the season as well as the playoffs, where no pitcher in history has more wins than his 15.
He's certainly getting up there in age. But he still hasn't had an ERA over 4.00 in 15 years, and he's averaged fewer than eight strikeouts per nine innings just once since 2000. As long as he gets his shoulder healthy -- and the Red Sox will give him all the time he needs to do that -- he can be a factor down the stretch. The fascinating question will be whether he'll bump someone from the rotation or whether the Red Sox might try the unorthodox approach of employing six starting pitchers in August and September.
Consider this:
Beckett: Oblique injury torched his postseason.
Lester: Set a new career high in innings pitched last season -- by a wide margin.
Matsuzaka: Was used to five or six days of rest between starts in Japan.
Buchholz: Has never thrown more than 150 innings in his career.
Penny: Coming off injury.
Smoltz: Coming off injury.
Tim Wakefield (will turn 43 in August -- which equates to 35 or 36 in knuckleballer years)
2008: 10-11, 4.13 ERA, 117 K, 60 BB
2007: 17-12, 4.76 ERA, 110 K, 64 BB
2006: 7-11, 4.63 ERA, 90 K, 51 BB
The image that lingers is the shellacking Wakefield absorbed in Game 4 of the American League Championship Series against Tampa Bay -- he surrendered three home runs in 2 2/3 innings of work and never gave his team a chance to win. But in the regular season, he turned in his lowest ERA and lowest WHIP (walks and hits allowed per inning pitched) in half a decade and lasted an average of six innings per start.
With Doug Mirabelli and Kevin Cash gone, he might no longer have a personal catcher -- and that might have an effect on his rhythm on the mound. You know exactly what you're going to get from him every year -- between 10 and 14 wins and an ERA somewhere in the vicinity of 4.50. Then again, should Penny and Buchholz look sharp in spring training, he might be the odd man out.
It might be snowing outside -- at least, it's snowing here at One If By Land headquarters on the South Shore. But it's almost time for baseball to begin! With that in mind, we'll examine a few storylines at each position on the field for the Red Sox -- starting with, well, the starters.
The Red Sox enter the season with perhaps the best 1-2-3 punch in the American League and plenty of depth -- though no one beyond those first three starters can be classified as anything close to a sure thing.
Locks
Josh Beckett (will turn 29 years old in May)
2008: 12-10, 4.03 ERA, 172 K, 34 BB
2007: 20-7, 3.27 ERA, 194 K, 40 BB
2006: 16-11, 5.01 ERA, 158 K, 74 BB
An oblique injury caused him problems in the postseason, where he previously had made himself a reputation as one of the best the game has ever seen. (Despite allowing 14 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings last postseason, he still has a 2.90 ERA in his 13 postseason appearances.) There's no reason he can't win 17 or 18 games and turn in a sub-3.50 ERA and regain his rightful place as the ace of the staff.
Jon Lester (just turned 25 years old)
2008: 16-6, 3.21 ERA, 152 K, 66 BB
2007: 4-0, 4.57 ERA, 50 K, 31 BB; season interrupted by lymphoma
2006: 7-2, 4.76 ERA, 60 K, 43 BB
The cancer is long gone. The only issue now, in fact, might be the wear and tear on his shoulder from his first 200-inning season. He threw 106 innings in 2003, 91 innings in 2004, 148 1/3 innings in 2005, 128 1/3 innings in 2006, 153 innings in 2007 and then 210 1/3 in 2008. That's a big jump. Terry Francona raved last fall about the weight he's added to his body, and that's certainly going to help his endurance. But the Red Sox will have to be wary if he's on a 200-inning pace midway through this season -- even if he's once again pitching like a Cy Young Award candidate.
Daisuke Matsuzaka (turned 28 years old last September)
2008: 18-3, 2.90 ERA, 154 K, 94 BB
2007: 15-12, 4.40 ERA, 201 K, 80 BB
The notorious nibbler walked a league-worst 94 batters a year ago and averaged an even 100 pitchers per start even though he lasted approximately 5 2/3 innings per start. That was a problem. But just about everything else went well -- opponents hit .211 off him for the season, he allowed just 12 home runs, and he allowed either zero earned runs or one earned run in 12 of his 29 starts. And if he can figure out how to throw strikes more consistently -- he walked four or more hitters in 11 of his 29 starts -- he might get the Cy Young consideration that his numbers say he deserved last season.
In the mix
Clay Buchholz (will turn 25 in August)
2008 (majors): 2-9, 6.75 ERA, 72 K, 41 BB
2008 (minors): 5-2, 2.30 ERA, 61 K, 18 BB
2007 (majors): 3-1, 1.59 ERA, 22 K, 10 BB
2007 (minors): 8-5, 2.44 ERA, 171 K, 35 BB
Here's one thing people haven't discussed much about Buchholz -- he seemed to run into some extraordinary bad luck during his big-league stint last season. A pitcher can only control so much on his own. There isn't a whole lot of luck involved in walks or strikeouts -- that depends on the pitcher's skill. There isn't a whole lot of luck involved in home runs, either. If a hitter crushes one, that's usually because the pitcher made a bad pitch. But almost everything else is out of the pitcher's hands. If the pitcher has runners on first and third with one out, a ground ball could either end the inning or keep everything rolling depending on whether it's hit right at the third baseman or in the hole between third base and shortstop.
The stat BAPIP -- batting average on balls put in play -- can be an indicator of a pitcher who's seeing a lot of ground balls find those holes or fly balls drop between outfielders. A pitcher with a high BAPIP often can expect to see his numbers improve the next season as his luck returns to a more normal level.
Here are the BAPIP numbers for the top five Red Sox starters last season:
Wakefield: .240
Matsuzaka: .260
Lester: .300
Beckett: .318
Buchholz: .355
Brad Penny (will turn 31 in May)
2008: 6-9, 6.27 ERA, 51 K, 48 BB
2007: 16-4, 3.03 ERA, 136 K, 73 BB
2006: 16-9, 4.33 ERA, 148 K, 54 BB
Injuries cost Penny a good chunk of his season a year ago -- he missed half of June, all of July, half of August and most of September. And when he did pitch, the results weren't good. He gave up 10 runs in 4 2/3 innings in a loss to the Mets in May, and he gave up seven runs a in 3 2/3 innings in a loss to the Tigers in June. If those injuries remain a factor, he won't spend much time on the Fenway Park mound. But if those injuries are behind him, the Red Sox might have themselves the steal of the free-agent season.
Consider the following comparison:
Player A (249 games) : 94-75, 4.06 ERA, 1,032 K, 475 BB
Player B (220 games) 86-67, 4.02 ERA, 1,132 K, 524 BB
Player A is the career of Brad Penny. Player B is the first nine seasons of the career of Jason Schmidt -- who then went 18-7 with a 3.20 ERA and 251 strikeouts in his 10th season.
Curt Schilling (just turned 42)
Just kidding.
John Smoltz (will turn 42 in May)
2008: 3-2, 2.57 ERA, 36 K, 8 BB
2007: 14-8, 3.11 ERA, 197 K, 47 BB
2006: 16-9, 3.49 ERA, 211 K, 55 BB
Shoulder surgery ended last season for Smoltz after just six starts. Some wondered if he'd join former Braves rotation-mate Greg Maddux in retirement -- and on the Hall of Fame ballot for 2014. But he signed an incentive-laden contract with the Red Sox this winter with an eye on the second half of the season as well as the playoffs, where no pitcher in history has more wins than his 15.
He's certainly getting up there in age. But he still hasn't had an ERA over 4.00 in 15 years, and he's averaged fewer than eight strikeouts per nine innings just once since 2000. As long as he gets his shoulder healthy -- and the Red Sox will give him all the time he needs to do that -- he can be a factor down the stretch. The fascinating question will be whether he'll bump someone from the rotation or whether the Red Sox might try the unorthodox approach of employing six starting pitchers in August and September.
Consider this:
Beckett: Oblique injury torched his postseason.
Lester: Set a new career high in innings pitched last season -- by a wide margin.
Matsuzaka: Was used to five or six days of rest between starts in Japan.
Buchholz: Has never thrown more than 150 innings in his career.
Penny: Coming off injury.
Smoltz: Coming off injury.
Tim Wakefield (will turn 43 in August -- which equates to 35 or 36 in knuckleballer years)
2008: 10-11, 4.13 ERA, 117 K, 60 BB
2007: 17-12, 4.76 ERA, 110 K, 64 BB
2006: 7-11, 4.63 ERA, 90 K, 51 BB
The image that lingers is the shellacking Wakefield absorbed in Game 4 of the American League Championship Series against Tampa Bay -- he surrendered three home runs in 2 2/3 innings of work and never gave his team a chance to win. But in the regular season, he turned in his lowest ERA and lowest WHIP (walks and hits allowed per inning pitched) in half a decade and lasted an average of six innings per start.
With Doug Mirabelli and Kevin Cash gone, he might no longer have a personal catcher -- and that might have an effect on his rhythm on the mound. You know exactly what you're going to get from him every year -- between 10 and 14 wins and an ERA somewhere in the vicinity of 4.50. Then again, should Penny and Buchholz look sharp in spring training, he might be the odd man out.
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Bard signing raises questions about Varitek, Wakefield
No one, apparently, seems to be wondering about the Red Sox's signing of catcher Josh Bard to a one-year deal. Bard, we all remember, was supposed to be a replacement for Doug Mirabelli as Tim Wakefield's personal catcher; he instead was a disaster and was shipped to San Diego for Mirabelli in a deal that cost the Red Sox reliever Cla Meredith.
It's almost baffling that the Red Sox would sign Bard again, especially to anything more than a minor-league contract or the major-league minimum. We already know he can't catch the knuckleball. And if he can't catch the knuckleball, why would the Red Sox sign him?
Some possibilities:
Jason Varitek, a free agent for whom there seems to be next to no market, could return and catch Wakefield.
This makes some semblance of sense; the Red Sox might have decided that it's not worth having a catcher like Mirabelli or Kevin Cash who provides next to nothing offensively -- particularly since Wakefield is the sort of pitcher for whom you need to score as many runs as possible. But Varitek has only caught
The last time Varitek caught Wakefield more than once in the regular season was 2005 -- and in opponents' 112 plate appearances against that battery, they hit .311 and reched base at a .432 clip. In their 831 plate appearances with Mirabelli catching, opponents hit .237 and reached base at a .290 clip.
Varitek hasn't caught Wakefield more than four times in a season since 2002. It's conceivable the Red Sox could try it again, but it seems an odd thing to do at this point in his career.
Then again, maybe the Red Sox still anticipate trading for another young catcher (i.e. Jarrod Saltalamacchia) and have faith that he could catch Wakefield better than Bard ever did.
Tim Wakefield's days are numbered in the Red Sox rotation.
This is the other one. The Red Sox picked up Tim Wakefield's perpetual $4 million option after the season because it made too much sense not to do so; anytime you can get a useful arm for $4 million, you do it.
But that doesn't necessarily mean he's guaranteed a spot in the rotation, either. As it stands now, there are seven or eight candidates for those five spots, and Wakefield is the only one who requires a catcher with a unique talent -- which apparently also requires a unique inability to hit better than .230 -- behind the plate.
Jon Lester, Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka are assured of their spots. The last two spots, though, will come down to Wakefield, Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden, Justin Masterson and the about-to-be-signed Brad Penny. If Penny is healthy, he's an All-Star-caliber pitcher. If Buchholz shows in spring training he's past the jitters of a season ago, he's capable of making a Lester-type leap. And if both pitch the way they're capable of pitching, there might not be a spot for Wakefield.
What then? Do they put him in the bullpen? Long relief? An ego-bruising trip to Pawtucket? Or does he ride off into the sunset of his career -- and thus make Josh Bard's inability to catch the knuckleball completely irrelevant?
It's almost baffling that the Red Sox would sign Bard again, especially to anything more than a minor-league contract or the major-league minimum. We already know he can't catch the knuckleball. And if he can't catch the knuckleball, why would the Red Sox sign him?
Some possibilities:
Jason Varitek, a free agent for whom there seems to be next to no market, could return and catch Wakefield.
This makes some semblance of sense; the Red Sox might have decided that it's not worth having a catcher like Mirabelli or Kevin Cash who provides next to nothing offensively -- particularly since Wakefield is the sort of pitcher for whom you need to score as many runs as possible. But Varitek has only caught
The last time Varitek caught Wakefield more than once in the regular season was 2005 -- and in opponents' 112 plate appearances against that battery, they hit .311 and reched base at a .432 clip. In their 831 plate appearances with Mirabelli catching, opponents hit .237 and reached base at a .290 clip.
Varitek hasn't caught Wakefield more than four times in a season since 2002. It's conceivable the Red Sox could try it again, but it seems an odd thing to do at this point in his career.
Then again, maybe the Red Sox still anticipate trading for another young catcher (i.e. Jarrod Saltalamacchia) and have faith that he could catch Wakefield better than Bard ever did.
Tim Wakefield's days are numbered in the Red Sox rotation.
This is the other one. The Red Sox picked up Tim Wakefield's perpetual $4 million option after the season because it made too much sense not to do so; anytime you can get a useful arm for $4 million, you do it.
But that doesn't necessarily mean he's guaranteed a spot in the rotation, either. As it stands now, there are seven or eight candidates for those five spots, and Wakefield is the only one who requires a catcher with a unique talent -- which apparently also requires a unique inability to hit better than .230 -- behind the plate.
Jon Lester, Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka are assured of their spots. The last two spots, though, will come down to Wakefield, Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden, Justin Masterson and the about-to-be-signed Brad Penny. If Penny is healthy, he's an All-Star-caliber pitcher. If Buchholz shows in spring training he's past the jitters of a season ago, he's capable of making a Lester-type leap. And if both pitch the way they're capable of pitching, there might not be a spot for Wakefield.
What then? Do they put him in the bullpen? Long relief? An ego-bruising trip to Pawtucket? Or does he ride off into the sunset of his career -- and thus make Josh Bard's inability to catch the knuckleball completely irrelevant?
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Batter-pitcher matchups: ALCS Game 4
Tampa Bay against Tim Wakefield (19-5, 3.32 ERA in 41 career appearances, 31 starts)
Good
Carl Crawford: 25-for-82 (.305), 2 HR, 10 RBI
Akinori Iwamura: 10-for-24 (.417), 2 RBI
Evan Longoria: 3-for-6 (.500), RBI
Bad
Rocco Baldelli: 3-for-26 (.115), 4 RBI
Carlos Pena: 4-for-30 (.133), HR, 3 RBI
B.J. Upton: 5-for-22 (.227), RBI
Boston against Andy Sonnanstine (1-1, 5.40 ERA in six career starts)
Good
Coco Crisp: 3-for-10 (.300), 2 RBI
J.D. Drew: 4-for-11 (.364), HR, 3 RBI
Jason Varitek: 5-for-10 (.500) HR, 4 RBI
(Varitek won't be in the starting lineup since Wakefield is pitching for the Red Sox.)
Bad
David Ortiz: 3-for-16 (.188), RBI
Dustin Pedroia: 3-for-15 (.200), RBI
Kevin Youkilis: 1-for-12 (.083), RBI
Good
Carl Crawford: 25-for-82 (.305), 2 HR, 10 RBI
Akinori Iwamura: 10-for-24 (.417), 2 RBI
Evan Longoria: 3-for-6 (.500), RBI
Bad
Rocco Baldelli: 3-for-26 (.115), 4 RBI
Carlos Pena: 4-for-30 (.133), HR, 3 RBI
B.J. Upton: 5-for-22 (.227), RBI
Boston against Andy Sonnanstine (1-1, 5.40 ERA in six career starts)
Good
Coco Crisp: 3-for-10 (.300), 2 RBI
J.D. Drew: 4-for-11 (.364), HR, 3 RBI
Jason Varitek: 5-for-10 (.500) HR, 4 RBI
(Varitek won't be in the starting lineup since Wakefield is pitching for the Red Sox.)
Bad
David Ortiz: 3-for-16 (.188), RBI
Dustin Pedroia: 3-for-15 (.200), RBI
Kevin Youkilis: 1-for-12 (.083), RBI
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
ALCS means fresh start for some
The plastic tarps were down, the room smelled more like carpet cleaner than Bud Light, and there were no oversized blue goggles in sight. (Closer Jonathan Papelbon sauntered into the clubhouse in some pretty sharp sunglasses, but that was it.)
The clubhouse was clean, and so too is the slate for the Red Sox as they prepare to open the American League Championship Series against the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday. Some players -- Jason Bay, Jon Lester, Jed Lowrie -- are looking to carry over momentum from last week's victories over the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Others, though, welcome the chance to start as fresh as the aroma in the clubhouse on Wednesday:
Tim Wakefield: The knuckleballer was announced by Terry Francona on Wednesday as the Game 4 starter in the series; he did not appear in the American League Division Series. Wakefield is 19-5 with a 3.32 ERA in his career against Tampa Bay, but much of that success came before the Rays were, you know, good; he surrendered 12 earned runs in 9 2/3 innings against Tampa Bay this season.
He also hasn't pitched in a game since Sept. 28, and when he pitches, it'll be on more than two weeks' rest.
"They'll probably simulate a game here, today or tomorrow, but I don't know that for sure," catcher Jason Varitek said.
Mike Timlin: He's made more appearances than any other right-handed pitcher in baseball history, but a rough end to the season -- his ERA was 9.39 in September -- resulted in Francona leaving him off the roster for the ALDS against the Angels. The roster for the ALCS won't be announced until Thursday, but Timlin could have a shot to make the roster as the 11th pitcher for the seven-game series.
He wasn't happy when Francona left him off the roster initially.
"I can't say the whole conversation was professional," he said, "but that's between he and I. If you don't have passion to play the game, you need to stop."
But he came to grips with his role as the series began.
"It was frustrating at the beginning, but I've got to accept my role, got to help the team when I can," he said. "It's not going to do any good to be moping on the bench, so be positive, go get 'em, help the guys out."
Sean Casey: The veteran first baseman was the lone position player not to see any action in the series. Even when Kevin Youkilis moved to third base to replace an injured Mike Lowell, Casey remained on the bench in favor of the more athletic Mark Kotsay.
He's spent a lot of time on the bench this season, particularly in the second half -- he had just 73 at-bats in 26 games after the All-Star break, and he hit just .233 in that span. But he knew when he joined the team that he wasn't going to be playing every day.
"I'm ready to do whatever (Francona) wants me to do," he said. "My role, if I'm not in there, is to come off (the bench) and pinch-hit in a certain situation. That didn't happen in the last series, but we'll see what happens in this series. ... I know Tito has his reasons, and he's had good reasons all year long, so I don't really question anything he's done or anything he ever does."
Dustin Pedroia: The MVP candidate was hitless in his first 15 at-bats of the ALDS before ringing a big double off the Green Monster for a big run in Game 4. He could be primed for a big series against the Rays: He was 5-for-10 with a walk this season against anticipated Game 1 starter James Shields, and he was 5-for-9 with a double, a triple and a home run against ace Scott Kazmir.
As far as he's concerned, the series against the Angels is over and done with.
"We won that series, and that's all in the past," he said. "I'm just excited to go out there and help our team win. I don't care a lot about personal achievements."
Said Varitek, "That guy played phenomenal defense for us and had good at-bats. He could have walked out there with five hits, easy, and a home run. The ball didn't carry. ... Pedey is a huge part, whether he hits or not, because he's going to have quality at-bats. He doesn't waste at-bats. He plays phenomenal defense. He's our stud."
The clubhouse was clean, and so too is the slate for the Red Sox as they prepare to open the American League Championship Series against the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday. Some players -- Jason Bay, Jon Lester, Jed Lowrie -- are looking to carry over momentum from last week's victories over the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Others, though, welcome the chance to start as fresh as the aroma in the clubhouse on Wednesday:
Tim Wakefield: The knuckleballer was announced by Terry Francona on Wednesday as the Game 4 starter in the series; he did not appear in the American League Division Series. Wakefield is 19-5 with a 3.32 ERA in his career against Tampa Bay, but much of that success came before the Rays were, you know, good; he surrendered 12 earned runs in 9 2/3 innings against Tampa Bay this season.
He also hasn't pitched in a game since Sept. 28, and when he pitches, it'll be on more than two weeks' rest.
"They'll probably simulate a game here, today or tomorrow, but I don't know that for sure," catcher Jason Varitek said.
Mike Timlin: He's made more appearances than any other right-handed pitcher in baseball history, but a rough end to the season -- his ERA was 9.39 in September -- resulted in Francona leaving him off the roster for the ALDS against the Angels. The roster for the ALCS won't be announced until Thursday, but Timlin could have a shot to make the roster as the 11th pitcher for the seven-game series.
He wasn't happy when Francona left him off the roster initially.
"I can't say the whole conversation was professional," he said, "but that's between he and I. If you don't have passion to play the game, you need to stop."
But he came to grips with his role as the series began.
"It was frustrating at the beginning, but I've got to accept my role, got to help the team when I can," he said. "It's not going to do any good to be moping on the bench, so be positive, go get 'em, help the guys out."
Sean Casey: The veteran first baseman was the lone position player not to see any action in the series. Even when Kevin Youkilis moved to third base to replace an injured Mike Lowell, Casey remained on the bench in favor of the more athletic Mark Kotsay.
He's spent a lot of time on the bench this season, particularly in the second half -- he had just 73 at-bats in 26 games after the All-Star break, and he hit just .233 in that span. But he knew when he joined the team that he wasn't going to be playing every day.
"I'm ready to do whatever (Francona) wants me to do," he said. "My role, if I'm not in there, is to come off (the bench) and pinch-hit in a certain situation. That didn't happen in the last series, but we'll see what happens in this series. ... I know Tito has his reasons, and he's had good reasons all year long, so I don't really question anything he's done or anything he ever does."
Dustin Pedroia: The MVP candidate was hitless in his first 15 at-bats of the ALDS before ringing a big double off the Green Monster for a big run in Game 4. He could be primed for a big series against the Rays: He was 5-for-10 with a walk this season against anticipated Game 1 starter James Shields, and he was 5-for-9 with a double, a triple and a home run against ace Scott Kazmir.
As far as he's concerned, the series against the Angels is over and done with.
"We won that series, and that's all in the past," he said. "I'm just excited to go out there and help our team win. I don't care a lot about personal achievements."
Said Varitek, "That guy played phenomenal defense for us and had good at-bats. He could have walked out there with five hits, easy, and a home run. The ball didn't carry. ... Pedey is a huge part, whether he hits or not, because he's going to have quality at-bats. He doesn't waste at-bats. He plays phenomenal defense. He's our stud."
Rotation set: Dice-K, Beckett, Lester, Wakefield
Terry Francona today announced his rotation for the American League Championship Series:
Game 1 (Friday in Tampa Bay): Daisuke Matsuzaka
Game 2 (Saturday in Tampa Bay): Josh Beckett
Game 3 (Monday at Fenway Park): Jon Lester
Game 4 (Tuesday at Fenway Park): Tim Wakefield
Game 5 (Thursday, Oct. 16, at Fenway Park, if necessary): Matsuzaka
Game 6 (Saturday, Oct. 18, at Tropicana Field, if necessary): Beckett
Game 7 (Sunday, Oct. 19, at Tropicana Field, if necessary): Lester
Francona said he didn't spent too much time looking at matchups, home-road splits, indoor-outdoor splits, anything like that. For his pitchers, he said, the biggest factor was rest and routine.
"The reasoning is actually pretty simple," he said. "It gives people rest -- not too much rest, and not too little. This is the best way and not have one guy going on eight (days' rest) and another guy going on regular. We'll keep everybody somewhat in line. Rest, at this time of year, is huge, and we'll take advantage of it while trying not to give too much. ...
"You can get into a lot of details, but there didn't really need to be. The way it lined up was appropriate. For us, factoring in the fact that those three will pitch twice if it goes to seven, in the end, as long as they're pitching, the order isn't as important, so you go on what's best for them."
One natural question was his choice of Wakefield over Paul Byrd.
"We considered everything," he said. "When it comes down to what serves the ballclub best, Byrd can probably be used a little more flexibly -- is that a word? -- more flexible out of the bullpen. You line up Wake and you put him with (catcher Kevin) Cash, and you see how far he can go and you can make your determinations on how to go to the bullpen as opposed to trying bring in Wake in the middle of a game, knowing that he's possibly throwing to a catcher you haven't had (him throw to). It's kind of an easy decision when you look at all the dynamics of it."
One reporter pressed Francona on his reasons for pitching Beckett in Game 2 rather than trying to move up the scorching-hot Lester and have him available in Game 6 rather than Game 7. Francona was almost incredulous.
"If you do that, you have one guy going on normal rest who has been pushed pretty good two starts in a row, and then you have another guy that's pitched once in three weeks that would be (pitching) once in three weeks," Francona said. "Before Beckett's last start, he was the best postseason pitcher maybe in the history of the game. He had the audacity to be a little rusty after two weeks. We don't need to run away from Beckett. We need to get him on a run."
Game 1 (Friday in Tampa Bay): Daisuke Matsuzaka
Game 2 (Saturday in Tampa Bay): Josh Beckett
Game 3 (Monday at Fenway Park): Jon Lester
Game 4 (Tuesday at Fenway Park): Tim Wakefield
Game 5 (Thursday, Oct. 16, at Fenway Park, if necessary): Matsuzaka
Game 6 (Saturday, Oct. 18, at Tropicana Field, if necessary): Beckett
Game 7 (Sunday, Oct. 19, at Tropicana Field, if necessary): Lester
Francona said he didn't spent too much time looking at matchups, home-road splits, indoor-outdoor splits, anything like that. For his pitchers, he said, the biggest factor was rest and routine.
"The reasoning is actually pretty simple," he said. "It gives people rest -- not too much rest, and not too little. This is the best way and not have one guy going on eight (days' rest) and another guy going on regular. We'll keep everybody somewhat in line. Rest, at this time of year, is huge, and we'll take advantage of it while trying not to give too much. ...
"You can get into a lot of details, but there didn't really need to be. The way it lined up was appropriate. For us, factoring in the fact that those three will pitch twice if it goes to seven, in the end, as long as they're pitching, the order isn't as important, so you go on what's best for them."
One natural question was his choice of Wakefield over Paul Byrd.
"We considered everything," he said. "When it comes down to what serves the ballclub best, Byrd can probably be used a little more flexibly -- is that a word? -- more flexible out of the bullpen. You line up Wake and you put him with (catcher Kevin) Cash, and you see how far he can go and you can make your determinations on how to go to the bullpen as opposed to trying bring in Wake in the middle of a game, knowing that he's possibly throwing to a catcher you haven't had (him throw to). It's kind of an easy decision when you look at all the dynamics of it."
One reporter pressed Francona on his reasons for pitching Beckett in Game 2 rather than trying to move up the scorching-hot Lester and have him available in Game 6 rather than Game 7. Francona was almost incredulous.
"If you do that, you have one guy going on normal rest who has been pushed pretty good two starts in a row, and then you have another guy that's pitched once in three weeks that would be (pitching) once in three weeks," Francona said. "Before Beckett's last start, he was the best postseason pitcher maybe in the history of the game. He had the audacity to be a little rusty after two weeks. We don't need to run away from Beckett. We need to get him on a run."
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Francona has options for ALCS rotation
Terry Francona said late Monday night that he wasn't going to make any knee-jerk decisions about his roster and his pitching rotation for the American League Championship Series against the Tampa Bay Rays. You can bet that he and pitching coach John Farrell are having some in-depth conversations about how they're going to line up their pitchers for Games 1-4 for the series that starts Friday at Tropicana Field.
Here's one writer's view about how the staff should break down:
Game 1: Daisuke Matsuzaka. This one seems easy. Dice-K would have pitched Game 5 in Anaheim on Wednesday had it been necessary; instead, he'll take the ball on six days' rest against the Rays on Friday. Matsuzaka was 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA this season, and he allowed two earned runs in two starts (10 innings pitched) at Tropicana Field.
He made eight starts this season on six days' rest and had a 3.05 ERA; he actually was better on five days' rest (6-1, 2.49 ERA) than on four. But if he starts Game 1, he'd be ready to come back for Game 5 on, you guessed it, five days' rest.
Game 2: Josh Beckett. There's a temptation, given the way he pitched against Los Angeles and given that he'll be on regular rest, to bring back Jon Lester in this spot. Lester has been a monster in the postseason thus far; he pitched 14 innings against the Angels and surrendered just one unearned run.
But let's not forget just how good Beckett is. He labored through his five innings of work on Sunday, but he'd be pitching on six days' rest and against a team he dominated this season -- he was 2-1 but had a 2.06 ERA in 35 innings pitched against Tampa Bay this season. That includes a 1.20 ERA in 15 innings pitched at Tropicana Field.
Game 3: Jon Lester. There's not much more you can say about the left-handed ace, but there are a couple of reasons to save him until Game 3. For one thing, he was 11-1 with a 2.49 ERA at home this season but 5-5 with a 4.09 ERA on the road. For another, he was spectacular (0.90 ERA in 20 innings pitched) against the Rays this season -- but all of those innings were at Fenway Park and not at Tropicana Field.
And here's one more reason: It seems unlikely that the Rays are going to dispose of the Red Sox in four or five games. If you slot Lester in here, he'll be prepared either to come back and pitch a potential Game 7 on four days rest. (And, if the Red Sox win the series without needing Lester twice, he'll be ready to take the ball in Game 1 of the World Series -- at Fenway Park.)
Game 4: Tim Wakefield. The knuckleballer's need for a personal catcher makes lineup moves complicated if he's needed out of the bullpen in the late innings. But that shouldn't be what gives him the edge here.
Unlike the Angels, the Rays present a lefty-heavy lineup. Carlos Pena is left-handed. Carl Crawford is left-handed. Gabe Gross is left-handed. Akinori Iwamura is left-handed. Cliff Floyd and Eric Hinske both are left-handed. Dioner Navarro is a switch-hitter but was better from the left side this season.
Paul Byrd has seen right-handed hitters hit .241 against him in his career (.255 this season). Left-handed hitters, on the other hand, are hitting .311 (.317 this season). Wakefield, meanwhile, has seen left-handers hit .248 against him in his career (.243 this season); right-handers (.256, .218 this season) aren't any better.
On top of that, right-hander B.J. Upton, who hit two home runs against the White Sox on Monday, is 5-for-22 (.227) with no extra-base hits in his career against Wakefield. He's 3-for-8 with a double and a walk against Byrd.
Here's one writer's view about how the staff should break down:
Game 1: Daisuke Matsuzaka. This one seems easy. Dice-K would have pitched Game 5 in Anaheim on Wednesday had it been necessary; instead, he'll take the ball on six days' rest against the Rays on Friday. Matsuzaka was 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA this season, and he allowed two earned runs in two starts (10 innings pitched) at Tropicana Field.
He made eight starts this season on six days' rest and had a 3.05 ERA; he actually was better on five days' rest (6-1, 2.49 ERA) than on four. But if he starts Game 1, he'd be ready to come back for Game 5 on, you guessed it, five days' rest.
Game 2: Josh Beckett. There's a temptation, given the way he pitched against Los Angeles and given that he'll be on regular rest, to bring back Jon Lester in this spot. Lester has been a monster in the postseason thus far; he pitched 14 innings against the Angels and surrendered just one unearned run.
But let's not forget just how good Beckett is. He labored through his five innings of work on Sunday, but he'd be pitching on six days' rest and against a team he dominated this season -- he was 2-1 but had a 2.06 ERA in 35 innings pitched against Tampa Bay this season. That includes a 1.20 ERA in 15 innings pitched at Tropicana Field.
Game 3: Jon Lester. There's not much more you can say about the left-handed ace, but there are a couple of reasons to save him until Game 3. For one thing, he was 11-1 with a 2.49 ERA at home this season but 5-5 with a 4.09 ERA on the road. For another, he was spectacular (0.90 ERA in 20 innings pitched) against the Rays this season -- but all of those innings were at Fenway Park and not at Tropicana Field.
And here's one more reason: It seems unlikely that the Rays are going to dispose of the Red Sox in four or five games. If you slot Lester in here, he'll be prepared either to come back and pitch a potential Game 7 on four days rest. (And, if the Red Sox win the series without needing Lester twice, he'll be ready to take the ball in Game 1 of the World Series -- at Fenway Park.)
Game 4: Tim Wakefield. The knuckleballer's need for a personal catcher makes lineup moves complicated if he's needed out of the bullpen in the late innings. But that shouldn't be what gives him the edge here.
Unlike the Angels, the Rays present a lefty-heavy lineup. Carlos Pena is left-handed. Carl Crawford is left-handed. Gabe Gross is left-handed. Akinori Iwamura is left-handed. Cliff Floyd and Eric Hinske both are left-handed. Dioner Navarro is a switch-hitter but was better from the left side this season.
Paul Byrd has seen right-handed hitters hit .241 against him in his career (.255 this season). Left-handed hitters, on the other hand, are hitting .311 (.317 this season). Wakefield, meanwhile, has seen left-handers hit .248 against him in his career (.243 this season); right-handers (.256, .218 this season) aren't any better.
On top of that, right-hander B.J. Upton, who hit two home runs against the White Sox on Monday, is 5-for-22 (.227) with no extra-base hits in his career against Wakefield. He's 3-for-8 with a double and a walk against Byrd.
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