Countdown to spring training: Starting pitching

Truck Day is Friday. Pitchers and catchers report on Feb. 13. Spring training games start Feb. 25. The American League champion Rays come to Fenway Park on April 6.

It might be snowing outside -- at least, it's snowing here at One If By Land headquarters on the South Shore. But it's almost time for baseball to begin! With that in mind, we'll examine a few storylines at each position on the field for the Red Sox -- starting with, well, the starters.

The Red Sox enter the season with perhaps the best 1-2-3 punch in the American League and plenty of depth -- though no one beyond those first three starters can be classified as anything close to a sure thing.

Locks
Josh Beckett (will turn 29 years old in May)
2008: 12-10, 4.03 ERA, 172 K, 34 BB
2007: 20-7, 3.27 ERA, 194 K, 40 BB
2006: 16-11, 5.01 ERA, 158 K, 74 BB
An oblique injury caused him problems in the postseason, where he previously had made himself a reputation as one of the best the game has ever seen. (Despite allowing 14 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings last postseason, he still has a 2.90 ERA in his 13 postseason appearances.) There's no reason he can't win 17 or 18 games and turn in a sub-3.50 ERA and regain his rightful place as the ace of the staff.

Jon Lester (just turned 25 years old)
2008: 16-6, 3.21 ERA, 152 K, 66 BB
2007: 4-0, 4.57 ERA, 50 K, 31 BB; season interrupted by lymphoma
2006: 7-2, 4.76 ERA, 60 K, 43 BB
The cancer is long gone. The only issue now, in fact, might be the wear and tear on his shoulder from his first 200-inning season. He threw 106 innings in 2003, 91 innings in 2004, 148 1/3 innings in 2005, 128 1/3 innings in 2006, 153 innings in 2007 and then 210 1/3 in 2008. That's a big jump. Terry Francona raved last fall about the weight he's added to his body, and that's certainly going to help his endurance. But the Red Sox will have to be wary if he's on a 200-inning pace midway through this season -- even if he's once again pitching like a Cy Young Award candidate.

Daisuke Matsuzaka (turned 28 years old last September)
2008: 18-3, 2.90 ERA, 154 K, 94 BB
2007: 15-12, 4.40 ERA, 201 K, 80 BB
The notorious nibbler walked a league-worst 94 batters a year ago and averaged an even 100 pitchers per start even though he lasted approximately 5 2/3 innings per start. That was a problem. But just about everything else went well -- opponents hit .211 off him for the season, he allowed just 12 home runs, and he allowed either zero earned runs or one earned run in 12 of his 29 starts. And if he can figure out how to throw strikes more consistently -- he walked four or more hitters in 11 of his 29 starts -- he might get the Cy Young consideration that his numbers say he deserved last season.

In the mix
Clay Buchholz (will turn 25 in August)
2008 (majors): 2-9, 6.75 ERA, 72 K, 41 BB
2008 (minors): 5-2, 2.30 ERA, 61 K, 18 BB
2007 (majors): 3-1, 1.59 ERA, 22 K, 10 BB
2007 (minors): 8-5, 2.44 ERA, 171 K, 35 BB
Here's one thing people haven't discussed much about Buchholz -- he seemed to run into some extraordinary bad luck during his big-league stint last season. A pitcher can only control so much on his own. There isn't a whole lot of luck involved in walks or strikeouts -- that depends on the pitcher's skill. There isn't a whole lot of luck involved in home runs, either. If a hitter crushes one, that's usually because the pitcher made a bad pitch. But almost everything else is out of the pitcher's hands. If the pitcher has runners on first and third with one out, a ground ball could either end the inning or keep everything rolling depending on whether it's hit right at the third baseman or in the hole between third base and shortstop.

The stat BAPIP -- batting average on balls put in play -- can be an indicator of a pitcher who's seeing a lot of ground balls find those holes or fly balls drop between outfielders. A pitcher with a high BAPIP often can expect to see his numbers improve the next season as his luck returns to a more normal level.

Here are the BAPIP numbers for the top five Red Sox starters last season:
Wakefield: .240
Matsuzaka: .260
Lester: .300
Beckett: .318
Buchholz: .355

Brad Penny (will turn 31 in May)
2008: 6-9, 6.27 ERA, 51 K, 48 BB
2007: 16-4, 3.03 ERA, 136 K, 73 BB
2006: 16-9, 4.33 ERA, 148 K, 54 BB
Injuries cost Penny a good chunk of his season a year ago -- he missed half of June, all of July, half of August and most of September. And when he did pitch, the results weren't good. He gave up 10 runs in 4 2/3 innings in a loss to the Mets in May, and he gave up seven runs a in 3 2/3 innings in a loss to the Tigers in June. If those injuries remain a factor, he won't spend much time on the Fenway Park mound. But if those injuries are behind him, the Red Sox might have themselves the steal of the free-agent season.

Consider the following comparison:
Player A (249 games) : 94-75, 4.06 ERA, 1,032 K, 475 BB
Player B (220 games) 86-67, 4.02 ERA, 1,132 K, 524 BB

Player A is the career of Brad Penny. Player B is the first nine seasons of the career of Jason Schmidt -- who then went 18-7 with a 3.20 ERA and 251 strikeouts in his 10th season.

Curt Schilling (just turned 42)
Just kidding.

John Smoltz (will turn 42 in May)
2008: 3-2, 2.57 ERA, 36 K, 8 BB
2007: 14-8, 3.11 ERA, 197 K, 47 BB
2006: 16-9, 3.49 ERA, 211 K, 55 BB
Shoulder surgery ended last season for Smoltz after just six starts. Some wondered if he'd join former Braves rotation-mate Greg Maddux in retirement -- and on the Hall of Fame ballot for 2014. But he signed an incentive-laden contract with the Red Sox this winter with an eye on the second half of the season as well as the playoffs, where no pitcher in history has more wins than his 15.

He's certainly getting up there in age. But he still hasn't had an ERA over 4.00 in 15 years, and he's averaged fewer than eight strikeouts per nine innings just once since 2000. As long as he gets his shoulder healthy -- and the Red Sox will give him all the time he needs to do that -- he can be a factor down the stretch. The fascinating question will be whether he'll bump someone from the rotation or whether the Red Sox might try the unorthodox approach of employing six starting pitchers in August and September.

Consider this:
Beckett: Oblique injury torched his postseason.
Lester: Set a new career high in innings pitched last season -- by a wide margin.
Matsuzaka: Was used to five or six days of rest between starts in Japan.
Buchholz: Has never thrown more than 150 innings in his career.
Penny: Coming off injury.
Smoltz: Coming off injury.

Tim Wakefield (will turn 43 in August -- which equates to 35 or 36 in knuckleballer years)
2008: 10-11, 4.13 ERA, 117 K, 60 BB
2007: 17-12, 4.76 ERA, 110 K, 64 BB
2006: 7-11, 4.63 ERA, 90 K, 51 BB
The image that lingers is the shellacking Wakefield absorbed in Game 4 of the American League Championship Series against Tampa Bay -- he surrendered three home runs in 2 2/3 innings of work and never gave his team a chance to win. But in the regular season, he turned in his lowest ERA and lowest WHIP (walks and hits allowed per inning pitched) in half a decade and lasted an average of six innings per start.

With Doug Mirabelli and Kevin Cash gone, he might no longer have a personal catcher -- and that might have an effect on his rhythm on the mound. You know exactly what you're going to get from him every year -- between 10 and 14 wins and an ERA somewhere in the vicinity of 4.50. Then again, should Penny and Buchholz look sharp in spring training, he might be the odd man out.