More fun with OPS+

Remember the Lions, Tigers and Bears game we played back in January to compare the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays?

We all knew there was a better way to compare lineups in the East Division than just by awarding arbitrary point values like that. And after playing around with OPS+ totals in the last post to figure out how much the Red Sox would miss J.D. Drew, it seems like we have it.

None of it is absolutely scientific, of course. For one thing, we're just using last year's OPS+ stats, and there's no way every player in the division is going to perform at the same level he did last season. For another, OPS doesn't tell you anything about situational hitting or stringing hits together or doing all the other things it takes to score runs.

But it's a fairly good indicator of a player's ability to get on base and hit for power, and thus it does tell you something about the general strength of a lineup if you add up the adjusted on-base percentage and slugging percentage numbers of an entire lineup. It also gives you a sense for how much one star player can make up for another weak player -- as well as how a handful of weak players can drag down one or two star players. One or two 150s are not going to compensate for a lineup full of 75s.

(At some point, I'll figure out how to do columns in this blog. Until then, though, you'll have to bear with me as we run these lineups one after another rather than next to each other.)

Red Sox
Pedroia, 2B -- 122 OPS+ last season
Drew, RF -- 137
Ortiz, DH -- 123
Bay, LF -- 134
Youkilis, 1B -- 143
Lowell, 3B -- 103
Lowrie, SS -- 90
Varitek, C -- 73
Ellsbury, CF -- 87
Total: 1,012
If Drew is replaced by Mark Kotsay (91), that number drops to 966.

Let's compare that with the projected lineups of the other four American League East teams:

Yankees
Damon, LF -- 118
Jeter, SS -- 102
Teixeira, 1B -- 151
Rodriguez, 3B -- 150
Swisher, CF -- 92
Nady, RF -- 128
Posada, C -- 103
Matsui, DH -- 108
Cano, 2B -- 86
Total: 1,038

Rays
Iwamura, 2B -- 92
Upton, CF -- 107
Pena, 1B -- 127
Longoria, 3B -- 125
Crawford, LF -- 87
Burrell, DH -- 125
Navarro, C -- 98
Joyce, RF -- 116
Bartlett, SS -- 82
Total: 959

Blue Jays
Hill, 2B -- 83
Scutaro, SS -- 87
Wells, CF -- 121
Rios, RF -- 111
Rolen, 3B -- 107
Overbay, 1B -- 107
Lind, DH -- 99
Barajas, C -- 86
Snider, LF -- 112
Total: 913

Orioles
Jones, CF -- 85
Roberts, 2B -- 117
Markakis, RF -- 134
Huff, 1B -- 135
Scott, DH -- 109
Mora, 3B -- 114
Pie, LF -- 64
Zaun, C -- 87
Izturis, SS -- 67
Total: 912

What this tells us is that the Red Sox are right there with the Yankees and well ahead of the Rays if they have their lineup intact -- Teixiera and Rodriguez are the two best hitters in the division, but there's nothing in their supporting cast that compares to Pedroia, Youkilis or a healthy J.D. Drew.

Should Drew need to spend significant time on the disabled list, though, the gap grows bigger -- and the Red Sox end up with a lineup-wide OPS+ closer to that of the Blue Jays and Orioles than that of the Yankees. Same goes for the health of Lowell and Ortiz or the career year of Youkilis. Should any of the three regress, the gap between the Red Sox and Yankees would grow bigger still. Jason Bay and Dustin Pedroia are about the only two 100-plus bats in that lineup who could be considered locks to replicate their numbers of a season ago.

There's a very fine line between championship contention and mediocrity. The Red Sox have the pieces to make a run to the World Series, but they're walking that fine line. It wouldn't take much for a lineup of six 100-plus bats to become a lineup of three or four 100-plus bats -- and that's not the type of lineup that's going to win the division.