Counting down to spring training: Shortstop

Here's where things get interesting. Pitching will work itself out; it always does. Eight of the nine positions on the field -- save for a possible platoon situation at catcher -- are set. Kevin Youkilis will play 150 games at first base. Jason Bay will play 150 games in left field. J.D. Drew will play 140 games in right field -- something he's done in three of the past five years, contrary to what some would have you believe.

But no one -- possibly not even Theo Epstein or Terry Francona -- knows yet who's going to play shortstop for the Red Sox next season.

The combatants
Jed Lowrie (will turn 25 in April)
2008 (majors): .258 batting, .339 on-base, .400 slugging
2008 (minors): .268 batting, .359 on-base, .434 slugging
2007 (minors): .298 batting, .393 on-base, .503 slugging
2006 (minors): .262 batting, .352 on-base, .374 slugging

Julio Lugo (turned 33 in November)
2008: .268 batting, .355 on-base, .330 slugging
2007: .237 batting, .294 on-base, .349 slugging
2006: .278 batting, .341 on-base, .421 slugging

Those hitting numbers tell a bit of a story -- the fact that Lugo's slugging percentage is trending downward isn't a good sign if the Red Sox are expecting him to be anything more than a Mike Lansing- or Adam Kennedy-type middle infielder.

But this decision might not come down to hitting. It might come down to fielding. Presuming Mike Lowell is healthy, the Red Sox will open the season with above-average infielders at first base (Kevin Youkilis, plus-6 last season in the Fielding Bible's plus-minus stats), second base (Dustin Pedroia, plus-15) and third base (Mike Lowell, plus-8). They'll have a chance to have one of the best defensive infields in the game.

Here's the catch: Lugo is a 20-error-a-season shortstop. He's averaging 25.7 errors per 162 games at shortstop in his career. A year ago, he made 16 errors in 81 games at shortstop. For comparison, only two shortstops in the major leagues made more than 17 errors last season. Those shortstops, though, played 153 and 150 games, respectively. Also, one of those shortstops was Hanley Ramirez, who hit 33 home runs and stole 35 bases.

In 2006, Lugo's defensive plus-minus at shortstop was minus-10 -- which ranked him 30th among all big-league shortstops. In 2007, he had a plus-1 -- which ranked him 18th. In 2008, before he got hurt, he was a minus-2 -- which ranked him 22nd. (For comparison, Derek Jeter had a minus-22, a minus-34 and a minus-12 in thos years. Lugo isn't that bad. But he's certainly not good.)

Lowrie, in his small sample size (386 innings at shortstop in 49 games), made zero errors and finished the season with a plus-8. Had he played an entire season, he would have ranked 10th in the majors -- well behind Jimmy Rollins (plus-23) and Yunel Escobar (plus-21), but not too far behind Omar Vizquel (plus-9).

Lugo is not Alex Gonzalez or Pokey Reese. He was brought to Boston more for his bat than for his glove. Even while he was accumulating 20 errors in 2003, for example, he was hitting 15 home runs and driving in 55 runs. And if he can hit almost as many home runs as he commits errors in the field, the Red Sox can live with that -- especially since he's still on the books for $9 million for each of the next two seasons.

But there's been no indication he can do that. He hasn't hit 15 home runs since that 2003 season; he's only hit double-digit home runs once in that span, and his slugging percentage hasn't even come close to .400 in his two seasons in Boston.

Lowrie, meanwhile, slugged .400 in 81 games last season. He hit 25 doubles, for example; that's more than J.D. Drew, Coco Crisp or Jacoby Ellsbury had despite significantly more at-bats.

The switch-hitter's biggest issue was the fact that he didn't hit right-handed pitching (.222 last season) even close to as well as he hits left-handed pitching (.338). Lugo, a pure right-handed hitter, has a career .271 batting average against righties and .269 batting average against lefties. His on-base and slugging numbers likewise are a little better against righties than lefties.

Francona and Epstein are going to have quite a few numbers to crunch -- and they'll probably keep doing it straight through spring training, too. Lowrie appears to have the better glove and more upside with the bat, but he looked almost useless against right-handed pitching last season. Lugo appears to be a liability with the glove and is no lock to do much with the bat, but he at least can hit right-handed pitching.

A platoon might be the answer. But if Francona and Epstein choose to play Lugo full-time against right-handed pitching and use Lowrie as a utility infielder and full-time shortstop against lefties, well, they'd better hope that the offensive production they get offsets what they lose defensively.