Friday, February 20, 2009

Meet the East: Baltimore

A week from today, your trusted Union Leader reporter will be en route to Fort Myers to file on-the-scene reports from Red Sox training camp. In the meantime, though, here's a glance at what's been happening this offseason and this spring elsewhere around the American League East, suddenly the most formidable division in baseball.

First up: Baltimore.

2008 record:
68-93, 28 1/2 games back

Highlights:
* Nick Markakis hit .306 with 20 home runs and OBP'ed .406, continuing his development into one of the American League's top young players
* Luke Scott, acquired from Houston in the Miguel Tejada trade, hit 23 home runs.
* Jeremy Guthrie won 10 games to go along with a 3.63 ERA.
* Aubrey Huff inexplicably hit 32 home runs at the age of 31, doubling his previous year's total.

Lowlights:
* Adam Jones scuffled in his first year as a full-time player, OBP'ing .311 and slugging .400. (For perspective on those numbers: Jason Varitek OBP'ed .313 last season.)
* George Sherrill, who went to the All-Star Game, had a 6.93 ERA after June 13.
* Non-Guthrie starting pitchers combined for an ERA of 6.03.
* That's worth saying again: Baltimore starting pitchers not named Jeremy Guthrie combined for an ERA of 6.03.

Storyline:
There's one easy place to start when examining the Orioles, and it's not at the plate. In terms of runs per game (4.86), they finished right in the middle of the pack -- right in between Tampa Bay (4.78) and New York (4.87).

Pitching, though, was a different story -- and that's what needed to be overhauled this winter. Perennial disappointment Daniel Cabrera turned in a 5.00-plus ERA for the second straight season and was nontendered. Youngsters Garrett Olson and Radhames Liz were disasters; Olson failed to get out of the third inning in three of his final eight starts, and Liz walked 51 batters in fewer than 100 innings.

Guthrie is back. He'll be the ace. He's not exactly Jon Lester at this point, but he's got an ERA of 3.66 in two full seasons as a starting pitcher and gives the Orioles at least some chance to win just about every time he pitches. Beyond Guthrie, though, it still looks like a mess. Japanese import Koji Uehara had a 3.01 ERA and a 6.7-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 10 seasons in Japan, but there's no way of knowing what he'll do when the season begins until the season begins.

Free-agent signee Mark Hendrickson and trade acquisition Rich Hill figure to fill two of the other rotation spots. Hendrickson had a 5.45 ERA in 39 appearances (16 starts) with Florida last season; his ERA was significantly better (3.03) when he came out of the bullpen than when he started the game (6.24). Hill fell into Lou Pinella's doghouse in Chicago and was dealt for a player to be named. He issued 18 walks in 19 2/3 big-league innings last season, but if he can recapture the form that saw him win 11 games with a 3.92 ERA in 2007, the Orioles will take it.

And here's what's really telling about the Orioles' rotation: David Pauley, designated for assignment by the Red Sox this winter, has a pretty decent shot at winning a job as the fifth starter. All he has to do is beat out Brad Hennessey, who was let go by the Giants after a season in which he had a 7.81 ERA in the major leagues and a 4.83 ERA at Triple-A Fresno.

Uehara could be a huge addition if he can bring with him his ability to throw strikes. But that still leaves the Orioles with just two dependable starting pitchers -- and Chris Tillman, who was 11-4 with a 3.18 ERA in 28 starts at Double-A Bowie last season, is still probably a year away.

On the horizon:
Watch out for Matt Wieters, who Baseball America's Jim Callis said this week would be the best catcher in baseball by 2010. He could have the same type of rookie season as Tampa Bay's Evan Longoria a year ago.

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