Countdown to spring training: First base

The Red Sox go into spring training with several positions at which there'll be no competition. First base is one of those. Lars Anderson is going to get a chance to show his stuff to the big club, but he's still ticketed for another season in the minor leagues. This job belongs to Kevin Youkilis.

Kevin Youkilis (will turn 30 in March)
2008: .312 batting, .390 on-base, .569 slugging
2007: .288 batting, .390 on-base, .435 slugging
2006: .279 batting, .381 on-base, .429 slugging

Now that his four-year, $41 million contract is in the books -- and Mark Teixeira is getting fitted for pinstripes -- we know where Youkilis will be playing 145 games this season. The only real question is: Can he repeat his production of a year ago?

His slugging percentage and power numbers made a huge jump last season; he'd hit 29 home runs in 2006 and 2007 combined, but he blasted 29 home runs in 2008 alone. His walks went down (91 to 77 to 62) but his batting average went up (.279 to .288 to .312). In short, the Greek God of Walks appeared to reinvent himself as an aggressive hitter once he lulled pitchers into the idea that he'd be too patient at the plate.

But can it last?

One common baseball-reference.com player comparison for Youkilis is Lyle Overbay. Like Youkilis, he's a first baseman drafted in the late rounds who took a few years longer than most to blossom as a hitter. Like Youkilis, he was walking somewhere in the ballpark of 80 times a year at age 27 and age 28. Like Youkilis, he saw his power numbers spike when he was 29 -- and like Youkilis, that spike happened when his walk totals began to dwindle.

That's quite a bit to have in common -- which is what makes this look so worrisome:
Overbay, age 27 (2004): .301, 16 home runs, 87 RBI
Overbay, age 28 (2005): .276, 19 home runs, 72 RBI
Overbay, age 29 (2006): .312, 22 home runs, 92 RBI
Overbay, age 30 (2007): .240, 10 home runs, 44 RBI
Overbay, age 31 (2008): .270, 15 home runs, 69 RBI

One important thing to keep in mind: Overbay was hit by a pitch in June of 2007, in the middle of that age 30 season, and spent six weeks on the disabled list with a broken hand. His numbers went way south (.240, 2 home runs, 17 RBI in 67 games) after he returned to the field that year.

But he wasn't necessarily on pace to reach his 2006 totals even before his injury. He actually was hitting just .256 at that particular moment, and his slugging percentage was .464, back where it had been when he was 27 and 28. His on-base percentage, even, was .332 -- the lowest it had been since he broke into the big leagues full-time. His numbers already had started to revert to where they'd been before -- and not continued in the upward track they'd been taking.

It's dangerous, of course, to use just one player as a comparison. The first few years of Moises Alou's career look a little similar to those of Youkilis as well, except without the high walk totals. Alou hit 14 home runs at age 28, 21 home runs at age 29, and 23 home runs at age 30. He then hit 38 home runs at age 31 -- but that happened in 1998, so draw your own conclusions there.

No one knows what will happen with Youkilis' numbers this season, of course. But the Red Sox will be living dangerously if they assume his numbers will keep trending upward and that he can slot in behind David Ortiz as a 30-home-run-a-year cleanup hitter for a World Series team.

Last year might have been Youkilis' breakout year. But it also might have been his career year.