Meet the East: Tampa Bay

2008 record: 97-65, division champions.

Highlights:
* Pretty much, you know, the entire season.
* Oh, you want specifics?
* James Shields, Matt Garza and Scott Kazmir all posted sub-4.00 ERAs; only four other teams had three starters with sub-4.00 ERAs last season. Of those other four teams, only two (the White Sox and Angels) bring back all three this season.
* Evan Longoria hit 27 home runs in just 122 games.
* Carlos Pena hit 31 home runs.
* B.J. Upton had a fairly disappointing regular season, hitting nine home runs and slugging just .401. but he hit seven home runs and slugged .652 in the postseason.

Lowlights:
* Carl Crawford hit just .273 and OBP'ed .319, contributing to his career-low 25 stolen bases.
* Troy Percival didn't allow a run in his first 11 appearances but faded badly down the stretch, accumulating a 6.52 ERA in 23 appearances after June 29.
* Jason Bartlett, no matter what some would have you believe about his intangibles, turned out to be about as mediocre a player as he'd always been in Minnesota.

Storyline:
We heard the comparison all season long: The 2008 Tampa Bay Rays and the 1991 Atlanta Braves. Both teams came out of nowhere, going worst-to-first and landing in the World Series. Both did so on the strength of a talented young pitching staff.

The Braves went on to win 14 division titles in 15 seasons. No one in baseball is expecting the Rays to have that type of run. But could they?

In 2008, 24-year-old Matt Garza went 11-9 with a 3.79 ERA (and 120 ERA+, weighted for ballpark and league average).
In 1991, 24-year-old John Smoltz went 14-13 with a 3.80 ERA (and 103 ERA+, weighted for ballpark and league average).

In 2008, 26-year-old James Shields went 14-8 with a 3.56 ERA (and 125 ERA+).
In 1991, 21-year-old Steve Avery went 18-8 with a 3.38 ERA (and 116 ERA+).

In 2008, 24-year-old Scott Kazmir went 12-8 with a 3.49 ERA (and 127 ERA+).
In 1991, 25-year-old Tom Glavine went 20-11 with a 2.55 ERA (and 153 ERA+).

See the difference? Garza and Shields actually were better last season than Smoltz and Avery were in 1991. But there was a huge gulf between Glavine and Kazmir at the top of the two teams' respective rotations.

Top-end pitching -- meaning elite, Cy Young-caliber, makes-you-catch-your-breath pitching -- is hard to come by. But it's the difference between a contender and a dynasty, a league champion and a World Series champion. Glavine recorded an ERA+ of at least 133 eight times between 1991 and 2002. Once Greg Maddux arrived, he recorded an ERA+ of at least 160 in seven straight seasons, including his breathtaking 271 and 262 in 1994 and 1995.

Nine of the last 12 World Series winners have featured an ace with an ERA+ of at least 140 -- including seven of the last eight. (Josh Beckett had an ERA+ of 138 for the Florida Marlins in 2003.) Twelve out of 12 have featured an ace with an ERA+ of at least 130.

The Rays, meanwhile, had three pitchers -- Garza, Kazmir and Shields -- with an ERA+ of at least 120 last season. But the division in which they'll be playing is far more formidable than the National League East into which the Braves moved in 1994. There's an even smaller margin for error -- and there remains a huge difference between an ERA+ of 125 and an ERA+ of 150.

Then again, when Kazmir went 10-8 with a 3.24 ERA two seasons ago, his ERA+ was 142. He just turned 25 in January. Maybe he still can be that guy.

On the horizon:
Watch for a monster season from B.J. Upton. Check out his numbers from his first two full seasons in the major leagues:

2007: .300 batting. .386 on-base, .502 slugging
2008: .273 batting, .383 on-base, .401 slugging

That slugging number fell by more than 100 points because he hit just nine home runs in the regular season in 2008 as opposed to 24 in 2007. But based on the way he hit in last season's playoffs, expect a return his 2007 numbers -- or even better. Upton slugged .889 in four games against Chicago and .786 in seven games against Boston; he hit home runs in Games 2, 3, 5 and 6.

It's a small sample size, sure. But for a player who isn't even going to turn 25 until August, it's hard to believe it's not a sign of things to come.