What if Drew can't go?

One of the "Countdown to spring training" posts made a point about how elite of a hitter J.D. Drew is and how, given 150 or 160 games, he can put up OPS numbers that rival the best players in the American League.

That's the key, though: 150 or 160 games. Here's what happened at Red Sox training camp on Sunday when Drew was asked how his back felt:

"Not bad," he told reporters in Fort Myers. "It's still pretty stiff. I've fought it all offseason. It's been one of those injuries that's kind of lingered. I've been able to hit, run and do all kinds of stuff. Some days I wake up stiff. Some days it doesn't seem to be too bad, so I'm just in the maintenance stages. Talked with [strength and conditioning coach Dave Page] for a while during the offseason, worked on some stuff to continue to keep it strong. Everything is well enough to perform and play. ... Just trying to isolate it and keep it from flaring up too bad."

As many already have pointed out, he sounds like it's already mid-August. Players should be coming to camp -- as Julio Lugo and David Ortiz say they've come to camp -- in the best shape of the year, if not the oft-asserted "best shape of my life." But Drew is coming to camp feeling just as uncomfortable as he did at the end of last season.

What happens now?

If Drew can't play every day, Rocco Baldelli and (gulp) Brad Wilkerson are going to start the season getting significant playing time in right field. Mark Kotsay, once he returns from back surgery sometime around the end of April or early May, seems a prime candidate get the majority of the time Drew doesn't get.

But the Red Sox would lose quite a bit in that situation.

Drew finished last season with an OPS+ -- adjusted for park effect -- of 137. Because OPS+ involves adding on-base percentage and slugging percentage together, we can say that Drew roughly produced about 18 percent more offense than the average player. The right fielder's career OPS+ is 129; he twice has topped 140 since 2004.

(For the sake of establishing the scale: 100 is considered to be average, 125 is considered to be good, 150 is considered to be outstanding. Albert Pujols has a career OPS+ of 170. Barry Bonds retired with a career OPS+ of 182. Babe Ruth is the all-time leader with a career OPS+ of 207.)

Baldelli hasn't played in more than 100 games since 2004. But even in 2003 and 2004, he delivered OPS+'s of 99 and 100, respectively -- right at the league average. Wilkerson last season turned in an OPS+ of 70 -- an absolutely abysmal number. The year before that, it was 104 -- slightly above average. The year before that, it was 86 -- well below average.

Kotsay's OPS+ was 91 last season, 57 in an injury-plagued 2007 season, and 88 and 97 in the two seasons before that. Not since 2004, when he hit .314 with 15 home runs (and, strangely, garnered the same MVP consideration as Alex Rodriguez), has he turned in an OPS+ of better than 100.

The Red Sox have a handful of warm bodies ready to take Drew's place. But it becomes very obvious very quickly that none of them come even close to Drew. Should Drew not be able to play every day, the Red Sox lineup -- already with three lineup spots with the potential to make below-average contributions -- could get even thinner than it already is.

Consider this lineup:
Pedroia, 2B -- 122 OPS+ last season
Drew, RF -- 137
Ortiz, DH -- 123
Bay, LF -- 134
Youkilis, 1B -- 143
Lowell, 3B -- 103
Lowrie, SS -- 90
Varitek, C -- 73
Ellsbury, CF -- 87

And this one:
Ellsbury, CF -- 87
Pedroia, 2B -- 122
Ortiz, DH -- 123
Bay, LF -- 134
Youkilis, 1B -- 143
Lowell, 3B -- 103
Kotsay, RF -- 91
Lowrie, SS -- 90
Varitek, C -- 73

Yes, there's potential for fluctuation in most of those numbers. Ortiz could bounce back. Lowrie and Ellsbury could hit better. Youkilis could hit worse. Lowell could go in either direction. Varitek could go in either direction.

But look at the difference between those two lineups. The first one already has just six players who had an OPS+ better than the league average last season -- and that's including Mike Lowell, who's no guarantee to replicate even the 103 he turned in last season.

The second lineup, on the other hand, has pretty much four guys who could be considered locks to deliver an OPS+ better than the league average -- Pedroia, Ortiz, Bay and Youkilis. That's it.

And here's a look back at the Red Sox lineup in 2007, their last World Series winner:

Crisp, CF -- 83
Pedroia, 2B -- 112
Ortiz, DH -- 171
Ramirez, LF -- 126
Lowell, 3B -- 124
Youkilis, 1B -- 117
Drew, RF -- 105
Varitek, C -- 103
Lugo, SS -- 65

That's seven players with an above-average OPS+ -- and a lineup-wide total of 1,006.

A Red Sox lineup with Drew this season would combine for an OPS+ of 1,012. A Red Sox lineup without Drew, meanwhile, would have combined OPS+ of 966 -- which, while not so drastic that you start to worry about the team's ability to contend, is a significant drop-off.