Countdown to spring training: Third base

Mike Lowell (will turn 35 in February)
2008: .274 batting, .338 on-base, .461 slugging
2007: .324 batting, .378 on-base, .501 slugging
2006: .284 batting, .339 on-base, .475 slugging

Remember that old Sesame Street song? "One of these things is not like the others..." (Yeah, that's right: We went Cookie Monster on you. You don't get that from your ordinary Boston pro sports blogs.)

Let's go back even farther:
2005: .236 batting, .298 on-base, .360 slugging
2004: .293 batting, .365 on-base, .505 slugging
2003: .276 batting, .350 on-base, .530 slugging
2002: .276 batting, .346 on-base, .471 slugging
2001: .283 batting, .340 on-base, .448 slugging
2000: .270 batting, .344 on-base, .474 slugging
Career: .279 batting, .343 on-base, .467 slugging

When statisticians compute averages, they often get rid of outliers -- statistics that don't fit with what otherwise is a fairly reasonable patter. That 2005 season, for example, probably isn't fair to hold against Lowell; he's since shown that, for whatever reason, it was just a lousy season. It wasn't indicative of any sort of trend.

But that's not the one that's not like the others. That's not the one that doesn't belong. Can you guess which one is not like the others before I finish this song? (Yes, you'll have that stuck in your head all day. Yes, I'm a little bit sorry.)

Look at the numbers Lowell put up in 2007, his second season with the Red Sox. He hit .300 for the first time. He slugged .500 and drove in more than 100 runs for the first time in four seasons. He reached base at a career-best .378 clip -- his previous best was .365 in 2004, the only other time he'd OBP'ed over .350.

He electrified Red Sox fans. He finished fifth in Most Valuable Player voting. He earned his second World Series ring -- and won World Series MVP honors in the process.

And in doing so, he earned himself totally unreasonable expections from fans. Check out this note from an informal season preview on bleacherreport.com:

"For the Red Sox to recreate the 2007 season, it is imperative for Mike Lowell to return to his 2007 form. Lowell is hoping to be ready for spring training at the moment, after a surgery this winter on his hip, which he injured in the ALCS against Tampa Bay. Lowell's 2008 numbers weren't bad, though the Red Sox would obviously love if he posted numbers similar to his '07 numbers. Lowell finished the '08 season hitting a respectable .274, with 17 home runs and 73 RBI."

Even Tony Massarotti of the Globe is looking for a return to the glory days:
"Two years ago, Mike Lowell and David Ortiz finished 1-2 on the club in RBIs, combining to knock in 237 runs while slugging .559. In 2008, they produced just 162 RBIs and a slugging percentage of .484. Obviously, both Ortiz (wrist) and Lowell (hip) had significant injuries along the way, though that only heightens concern about the ability of each to regain his prior form. Both men are a year older, too. Minus Ramirez, the Sox might be able to get by with an average performance from one of these players. But if both slip? Look out."

(We're going to assume here that an "average performance" from Lowell means anything markedly different from that 2007 season.)

Everyone knows that with Jason Varitek on the decline and whoever plays shortstop a potential wasted at-bat, the Red Sox need to do as much damage in the heart of the order as possible. David Ortiz and Jason Bay should hit 3-4 and, if healthy, put up great numbers. Many fans, though, might not be satisfied unless Lowell, J.D. Drew and Kevin Youkilis all hit .300 with 25-30 home runs of their own.

Lowell isn't that type of player. He never has been. He'll hit .280 and walk 50 times. He'll hit somewhere between 20 and 25 home runs. He'll drive in 80 or 90 runs. He'll hit 35 or 40 doubles. His top baseball-reference.com comparables for his age are Ken Caminiti, Paul O'Neill, Mike Sweeney and Vinny Castilla -- solid players all, but certainly not franchise-carrying cornerstones.

If Lowell is healthy, it's unreasonable to expect a stat line much better than .280 batting/.350 on-base/.450 slugging. That's about what Atlanta's Kelly Johnson, San Francisco's Fred Lewis and Los Angeles' Matt Kemp did last season.

If Lowell is healthy, he's going to contribute to the Red Sox in a lot of ways this season. But those fans expecting him to hit .300 and hit 30 home runs probably are going to be disappointed. If it's "imperative" for him to recapture the glory of 2007, well, the Red Sox might be out of luck.