Counting down to spring training: Left field

Jason Bay (will turn 31 in September)
2008: .286 batting/.373 on-base/.522 slugging
2007: .247 batting/.327 on-base/.418 slugging
2006: .286 batting/.396 on-base/.532 slugging

First things first: Jason Bay is not Manny Ramirez. The two were involved in the same trade. One is playing the position the other played at Fenway Park for almost a decade. But Jason Bay is not Manny Ramirez.

Here's Ramirez in his eight seasons with the Red Sox:
Age 29: .405 on-base/.609 slugging
Age 30: .450 on-base/.647 slugging
Age 31: .427 on-base/.587 slugging
Age 32: .397 on-base/.613 slugging
Age 33: .388 on-base/.594 slugging
Age 34: .439 on-base/.619 slugging
Age 35: .388 on-base/.493 slugging
Age 36: .398 on-base/.529 slugging*
* until trade to Los Angeles in July

Here's Bay for his career:
Age 25: .358 on-base/.550 slugging
Age 26: .402 on-base/.559 slugging
Age 27: .396 on-base/.532 slugging
Age 28: .327 on-base/.418 slugging
Age 29: .373 on-base/.522 slugging

There's a huge gap there. It's unmistakable. Bay's most impressive season in the last five years still doesn't touch even the worst season Ramirez had between 2001-06.

The thing is, the Red Sox don't need Bay to be Ramirez. To do that, he'd have to turn himself into one of the greatest right-handed hitters of all time. He isn't that, and he's never going to be that. But he can be an awfully good hitter, an anchor in the lineup, a guy who can hit fourth behind David Ortiz and make pitchers pay if they put the designated hitter on base.

And Bay looks quite a bit better if you compare him to a few other Red Sox outfielders not named Ramirez. (OPS represents on-base percentage plus slugging percentage; OPS+ is a way of measuring OPS against the league average for each season to account for things like park factor and the Steroid Era. The higher, the better.)

Ted Williams (through age 29): 1.128 OPS/196 OPS+
Manny Ramirez (through age 29): .900 OPS/153 OPS+
Carl Yastrzemski (through age 29): .869 OPS/138 OPS+
Fred Lynn (through age 29): .882 OPS/136 OPS+
Jim Rice (through age 29): .885 OPS/135 OPS+
Jason Bay (through age 29): .891 OPS/131 OPS+
Dwight Evans (through age 29): .808 OPS/119 OPS+

That list tells you two things:
1. If you thought it was fun to watch Ramirez rake over the last eight seasons, imagine what it would have been like to watch Williams in his prime. Wow.
2. Bay certainly holds his own with anyone on the bottom half of that list -- franchise cornerstones all.

If you're looking for Bay to be Manny Ramirez, you're going to be disappointed. But if you're willing to settle for Dwight Evans -- a .390 on-base percentage every year to go along with 30 doubles and 25 home runs -- you're going to have no problem with the Red Sox keeping him around for a while.