Thursday, February 5, 2009

Countdown to spring training: Catcher

In case you've been under a rock or in hibernation for the winter, the Red Sox went through a little bit of drama in their pursuit of a catcher. As it turns out, Jason Varitek will be right back where he's been for the last decade, and Josh Bard and out-of-options farmhand George Kottaras will be competing to back him up.

Jason Varitek (will turn 37 in April)
2008: .220 batting average, .313 on-base, .359 slugging
2007: .255 batting average, .367 on-base, .421 slugging
2006: .238 batting average, .325 on-base, .400 slugging

Josh Bard (will turn 31 in March)
2008: .202 batting, .279 on-base, .270 slugging
2007: .285 batting, .364 on-base, .404 slugging
2006: .333 batting, .381 on-base, .333 slugging

George Kottaras (will turn 26 in May)
2008 (Triple-A): .243 batting, .348 on-base, .456 slugging
2007 (Triple-A): .241 batting, .316 on-base, .408 slugging
2006 (Double-A and Triple-A): .255 batting, .361 on-base, .423 slugging

Nothing in that series of numbers is going to scare any opposing pitcher. The Red Sox -- barring a trade for one of the oft-discussed young catchers around baseball -- are going to have something of a hole in their lineup at the No. 8 or No. 9 spot, depending on where Francona opts to hit his catcher on any given day.

But it doesn't have to be quite as bad as it looks.

Varitek is a far better hitter from the right side (.284 career batting average) than from the left (.254 career batting average). Last season, he hit .284 from the right side and an abysmal .201 from the left side. He struck out more often than he reached base as a lefty; he reached base twice as often as he struck out as a righty.

Bard, another switch-hitter, also is better from the right side (.288) than from the left (.256) in his career. His power numbers are better from the right side (.443 slugging percentage) than from the left (.376 slugging percentage). A year ago, strangely enough, he hit .230 from the left side and .135 from the right side. But that appears to be an anomaly; the year before that, he hit .376 as a righty and .250 as a lefty.

Should the Red Sox opt for a platoon, they could do so -- Bard's lefty-righty splits aren't as drastic as those of Varitek's. The Red Sox could play Varitek all the time against left-handed pitching and half the time against right-handed pitching; they could play Bard the other half of the time against right-handed pitching.

Here's how that could play out, based on 650 total plate appearances. We'll base it on career numbers, which might be generous for Varitek, but we can cut him a little bit of slack. We'll also assume that the Red Sox face right-handed pitching approximately twice as often as they face left-handed pitching, for the sake of easy math.

Varitek against lefties (217 plate appearances):
.284 batting average, 8 home runs, 32 RBI
Varitek against righties (217 plate appearances):
.254 batting average, 7 home runs, 27 RBI
Bard against righties (216 plate appearances):
.256 batting average, 4 home runs, 27 RBI

Grand total (650 plate appearances):
.265 batting average, 19 home runs, 86 RBI

Again, those numbers are a little bit generous because we're including Varitek's prime years as well as his decline years. But stacked up against what they got from their catchers last season (.218 batting average, 14 home runs, 55 RBI) they look pretty good. Heck, stacked up against the average American League team a year ago (.258 batting average, 15 home runs, 73 RBI), they don't look so bad.

The Red Sox have stars all over the field. All they need from their catchers is good defense and adequate production at the plate. The right platoon of Varitek and Bard just might get that done.

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