Matsuzaka attacks Vlad -- and wins

All the work Daisuke Matsuzaka had done through five innings threatened to unravel around him in the sixth.

The righty had walked Chone Figgins twice but otherwise had silenced a potent Angels lineup. Until Kendry Morales ripped a single to right field to lead off the fifth inning, Matsuzaka was on his way to what might have been the most unlikely no-hitter in Red Sox history. Erick Aybar followed with a single into the right-field corner to send Morales to third -- and Aybar promptly stole second base to give the Angels two runners in scoring position with one out.

Fortunately for Matsuzaka, Los Angeles catcher Jeff Mathis was on deck -- and Mathis was completely overmatched. It took only three pitches for Matsuzaka to set Mathis down swinging for the second time in two at-bats. Chone Figgins then waved at a fastball on the outside corner, and Matsuzaka was out of the jam.

"In that situation, I resigned myself to maybe having one run score," he said. "But I also knew that the other pitcher was pitching very well, and I really didn't want to let in any runs. I got the ideal result that I wanted, so I was very glad about that.

"Both pitches were fastballs. I think I only got strikeouts with fastballs."

The sixth inning, though, was a different story. Matsuzaka already had seen his velocity start to dip from his adrenaline-fueled first inning, as Abreu made so vividly clear, and there's not much that Guerrero has in common with Mathis other than the logo on his uniform.

Guerrero also is just the type of hitter who gives Matsuzaka fits. The righty from Japan is a well-known nibbler, pounding the strike zone early in the count and trying to induce swings and misses out of the zone later in the count. Guerrero, however, doesn't adhere to the traditional understanding of the strike zone. A pitch off the plate in any direction is just as likely to get hit hard as a pitch right down the middle.

(Guerrero entered the game with two hits in three at-bats off Matsuzaka in his career, though a sample size that small must be taken with a baseball-sized grain of salt.)

Matsuzaka first threw a 91-mile-an-hour fastball at the letters.

Guerrero, of course, swung at it, and he fouled it off.

Matsuzaka came back with a curveball off the plate away.

Guerrero, of course, swung at it, and he fould it off.

Matsuzaka then tried a fastball up at the eyes, the type of fastball at which Guerrero has been known to swing. This time, though, he laid off.

This was the type of situation in which Matsuzaka has been known to run into trouble. He'd started Guerrero with two strikes in the first inning, both foul balls, only to miss with three straight pitches and give control of the at-bat right back to the hitter. Only because the free-swinging Guerrero reached out of the strike zone did he escape that situation.

Guerrero wasn't going to make that mistake twice.

Still, though, Matsuzaka couldn't exactly groove anything. Guerrero might be enduring something of a down season -- he's likely to fall short of 20 home runs for the first time since 1997 -- but he's still as dangerous as they come with a misplaced two-strike pitch.

Matsuzaka didn't reach back for something extra. He didn't crank his fastball up to 94 or 95 miles an hour. He left his delivery do what it does -- and he painted the outside corner with a 91-mile-an-hour fastball. Guerrero could only stand and watch.

The Dice-K of earlier this season would have tried to put a little more oomph on a pitch like that and missed way outside. The Dice-K of right now, the humbled Dice-K who spent the last two months working his way back up the minor-league ladder, the Dice-K the Red Sox would love to see as their No. 4 starter in the playoffs? That Dice-K made a perfect pitch.

"The fastball he threw to Guerrero, down and away, in a key spot," pitching coach John Farrell said, "was as much indicative of him repeating his delivery as any pitch during the course of the night."

Widespread intrigue surrounds Dice-K's return

Jon Lester takes everything about his pitching seriously, so one always has to raise an eyebrow when he smiles or laughs about anything that has to do with the Red Sox rotation.

That was his reaction, though, when a reporter asked him if he, like everyone else in Boston, was curious to see how Daisuke Matsuzaka would look on Tuesday.

"It would be big for us if Dice-K comes back and is Dice," Lester said. "He's looked good. I've seen some of his bullpens he's thrown, and he looks strong, looks good. ... It's a tough lineup: With the Angels, I think everyone in their lineup is hitting .300. Hopefully, he can come in and establish that he's back and he's healthy."

Lester might be optimistic -- but he's as in the dark about anyone about how Matsuzaka will fare in his first major-league start since mid-June. He looked OK in his final minor-league start, but there's only so much you can take from minor-league starts.

"It'll be really interesting to watch," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said.

Francona loves to pull out his "Hall of Fame thing": If a pitcher throws seven shutout innings in his first start, Red Sox fans will start designing his plaque for Cooperstown -- but if he gets shelled, they'll be ready to run him out of town.

Still, though, there's a lot riding on this start for Matsuzaka.

He was a different pitcher this season than he's been for the Red Sox in the past, but he's been a different pitcher for the Red Sox than he was in Japan.

"He kind of evolved the last couple of years and got away from the guy we signed -- for a few different reasons," Francona said with a surprising candor. "What we're hoping to do is see closer to the stuff we saw when we signed him. You might not see the exact same stuff -- I don't know if that's fair -- but closer to it."

The key for Matsuzaka, as it is for every pitcher, will be to command each of his pitches. Matsuzaka came to the United States with a reputation for throwing half a dozen or more pitches, but he's whittled his repertoire down to a fastball, a cutter, a changeup and a curveball. The issue for him earlier this season was that he couldn't distinguish any of his pitches from each other.

Below is a start from last September in which he tossed seven shutout innings against the Toronto Blue Jays:

Below is a start from early June in which he allowed five earned runs in five innings against the Texas Rangers:

The issue is pretty clear: Matsuzaka's fastball looked like his cutter, and his cutter looked like his breaking ball. When a pitcher can't distinguish his pitches, none of them are going to be very effective.

Combine that with the fact that he was pounding the strike zone the way coaches and fans alike have begged him to do, and it's not surprise he got hit hard.

(Here's his strike-zone chart from last September. Compare that to his strike-zone chart from June.)

If he can pound the strike zone with a variety of pitches that don't all look the same, he might just be successful.

That would mean a lot to the Red Sox -- and not just because they have a $103 million investment to justify.

They might lead the wild-card race by a growing margin, but there's nothing locked up that a bad week couldn't undo. If the Angels knock Matsuzaka out of Tuesday's game in the third inning and Paul Byrd follows that up with a stinker on Wednesday, the Red Sox could find themselves reeling -- and with a depleted bullpen -- with no days off until the end of the season.

Then again, with Michael Bowden and Junichi Tazawa still available, one bad start from Matsuzaka doesn't have to throw the Red Sox into a tailspin.

"I don't know that it necessarily needs to derail us," Francona said. "We're at the point in the season where we have other options. We have backups. We don't have to do something we're not comfortable with.

"It is unique. I understand that. But I don't think it has to get in the way of what we're doing."

Dice-K's Tuesday start as much about next year as this year

Daisuke Matsuzaka will make a start for the Red Sox on Tuesday, his first major-league appearance since a terrible start against the Braves in mid-June landed him on the disabled list for the second time this season.

All his focus now is on that start. When a reporter asked if he had any aspirations of pitching in the playoffs, the third-year righty brushed it aside.

"I don't think it's really necessary to think that far ahead right now," Matsuzaka said through a team translator. "I'd like to focus everything I have on my upcoming start."

The Red Sox, though, can't take that mentality. In some ways, anything they can get from Matsuzaka this season is a bonus. The goal all along has been to make sure the two-time World Baseball Classic MVP is pitching at full strength in the final three years of his contract.

This season might be all but a lost season for Matsuzaka -- but next season, in a way, starts right now.

"Short-term, we're hoping it will be really beneficial," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said. "Long-term, it will be tremendous. Regardless of how he pitches Tuesday, long-term, this is something that needed to be done."

Here's the translation: There's still a chance Matsuzaka could flop on Tuesday. There's still a chance that one bad start might be enough to prevent the Red Sox, neck and neck with the Rangers, from reaching the postseason.

There's more to it than that, though.

Even a bad start would bring positives with it. Even a bad start would mean Matsuzaka and the Red Sox would have taken a huge step forward together in completing a long and occasionally friction-filled rehabilitation process. Simply working his way back to the major leagues is a victory for a pitcher who didn't seem to be on board with the team's program both over the winter and earlier this season.

Since that time, though, Matsuzaka has done everything he can do to pitch like his old self in his return. That hasn't gone unnoticed by those who sign his hefty paychecks.

"I know that it took me some time to get here," he said, "but I also feel I was able to use that time to get prepared really well. I just hope I can apply all those things I was preparing for in my start."

Said Francona, "He's done everything we've asked him to do -- and probably a little bit more."

That's why the Red Sox see Tuesday's start as more of a win-win situation than others might. If Matsuzaka looks once again like a No. 2 or No. 3 starter, that could go a long way toward assuring the Red Sox a playoff spot.

If he looks once again like the disaster of April and May, well, he'll still have an entire winter to get in shape and work on his pitches and resurrect his major-league career.

"There's a lot more to be gained than to lose," Francona said. "If he pitches bad, sure, that wouldn't help our short-term goals. But if he can pitch good -- or show that he has some left this season -- it can really help us."

Rain delays Dice-K's rehab, but not his return

Daisuke Matsuzaka will not pitch in Manchester on Saturday, Red Sox manager Terry Francona announced on Friday afternoon, and instead will pitch the first game of a rescheduled doubleheader on Sunday for the Double-A Portland Sea Dogs.

But that won't change the target date for his return.

"That doesn't really do anything," Francona said, "because when I stated that Dice could come back and pitch on the 8th, we really wanted him to pitch on the 9th. That actually works out perfect."

You have to assume that Matsuzaka will replace Junichi Tazawa in the starting rotation. Clay Buchholz is here to stay, and neither of the other three pitchers at the top of the rotation are going anywhere. That means the schedule likely breaks down as follows:

Aug. 28 vs. Toronto: Beckett
Aug. 29 vs. Toronto: Buchholz
Aug. 30 vs. Toronto: Lester
(The team has a day off on Aug. 31, the day before rosters expand.)
Sept. 1 at Tampa Bay: Wakefield
Sept. 2 at Tampa Bay: Tazawa

Sept. 3 at Tampa Bay: Beckett (five days' rest)
Sept. 4 at Chicago: Buchholz (five days' rest)
Sept. 5 at Chicago: Lester (five days' rest)
Sept. 6 at Chicago: Wakefield (four days' rest)
Sept. 7 at Chicago: Tazawa (four days' rest)

Sept. 8 vs. Baltimore: Beckett (four days' rest)
Sept. 9: vs. Baltimore: Matsuzaka
(The team has a day off on Sept. 10.)
Sept. 11 vs. Tampa Bay: Buchholz (six days' rest)
Sept. 12 vs. Tampa Bay: Lester (six days' rest)
Sept. 13 vs. Tampa Bay: Wakefield (six days' rest)
(The team has a day off on Sept. 14.)

Sept. 15 vs. Los Angeles: Beckett (six days' rest)
This is the spot where it starts to get interesting. Beckett would have gone a week without pitching and would need to take his turn before the extra rest became a hindrance to his routine. Tazawa, by this point, would be in the bullpen.
Sept. 16 vs. Los Angeles: Matsuzaka (six days' rest)
Sept. 17 vs. Los Angeles: Buchholz (five days' rest)
Sept. 18 at Baltimore: Lester (five days' rest)
Sept. 19 at Baltimore: Wakefield (five days' rest)

And so on.

If Matsuzaka replaces Tazawa in the rotation, Sept. 15 or 16 would be the natural day for the transition to happen. The Red Sox pitchers would get an extra day of rest thanks to Matsuzaka's first start back from the disabled list, but too much rest might do more harm than good.

The Red Sox then will go almost three weeks without a day off, but with every pitcher taking his turn every five days and extra depth available in the bullpen, it ought to be easy to prevent anyone from getting overworked.

Pitching rotation: From Point A to Point B

Tim Wakefield will start Wednesday for the Red Sox in place of Brad Penny, the veteran who might have seen his Red Sox career come to an inglorious end in similar fashion to John Smoltz two weeks ago.

Smoltz was rocked by the Yankees at Yankee Stadium, and Penny was rocked by the Yankees at Fenway Park to the tune of eight runs in four innings. Red Sox manager Terry Francona didn't come with the "At least he was throwing strikes" optimism he's brought to previous post-Penny press conferences, and he told reporters this afternoon that Penny had lost his spot in the Red Sox rotation.

"I told him he's got to kind of hang tight a little bit and get through today, and then we'll go from there," Francona said.

Odds are long that Penny will make another start for the Red Sox this season. It would be easy enough to "skip" Penny in the rotation this week, optioning Enrique Gonzalez to Triple-A Pawtucket to make room for Wakefield and filling out the bullpen with extra arms when rosters expand five days later.

The return of Wakefield and the marginalization of Penny means just more upheaval in a Red Sox pitching staff many believed to be the deepest in baseball coming out of spring training. Francona and Theo Epstein developed contingency plan after contingency plan -- and they've had to put almost all of them to use.

It's amazing, really, how the Red Sox depth chart, to borrow a phrase from football, has evolved from its Opening Day incarnation to the way it looks right now:

Late March
1. Josh Beckett
2. Jon Lester
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka
4. Tim Wakefield
5. Brad Penny
6. Justin Masterson (in the bullpen)
7. John Smoltz (rehabbing)
8. Clay Buchholz (in the minors)
9. Michael Bowden (in the minors)
10. Junichi Tazawa (in the minors)

Late August
1. Beckett (3.38 ERA)
2. Lester (3.58 ERA)
Not much has changed at the top of the rotation. Beckett and Lester each have double-digit wins and a couple of complete games to go along with a strikeout-to-walk ratio right around 3.5. Only nine pitchers in the American League have a strikeout-to-walk ratio of better than 3.0, and two of them are atop the Red Sox rotation.

(Roy Halladay, by the way, has 151 strikeouts and 23 walks -- a ratio of 6.57. Amazing.)

3. Buchholz (3.99 ERA)
One thing Buchholz does better than anyone on the Red Sox pitching staff is induce the ground ball. As a team, the Red Sox have a ground ball/fly ball ratio of 0.73; that is, they allow four fly balls for every three ground balls they induce. Both Beckett and Lester do better than most -- they have GB/FB ratios of 0.90 and 0.96, respectively -- but they both still allow more fly balls than ground balls.

Not Buchholz. The 25-year-old righty has a 1.30 GB/FB ratio in his seven starts this seasno, and he's getting outs via the ground ball at a rate of better than 2-to-1. (Double plays, of course, inflate that rate. Still, though, even ground-ball specialist Justin Masterson only had a rate of ground outs to air outs of 1.59.)

If the season ended today, Buchholz almost certainly would start Game 3 of the Red Sox's first-round playoff series.

4. Wakefield (4.31 ERA)
The All-Star knuckleballer surrendered just two hits and one run in 5 2/3 solid innings for Triple-A Pawtucket on Friday and reassured the Red Sox that he could field his position well enough to pitch in the major-league rotation. He had an ERA of 4.31 in 17 starts before he landed on the disabled list with a back injury and, later, with pain related to a sciatic problem in his calf.

"He can cover his position and he's a really good pitcher," Francona told reporters on Saturday, "so I think we're OK."

He gets the edge over the team's No. 5 starter because he, if healthy, almost certainly would pitch Game 4 of any first-round playoff series. His knuckleball might always be a wild card, but he's far more difficult to bring out of the bullpen because of it.

5. Tazawa (3.57 ERA)
The 23-year-old rookie erased the memory of Penny's disastrous start by tossing six shutout innings and, perhaps even more impressively, outpitching A.J. Burnett, the Yankees' No. 2 starter. Tazawa now has a 3.57 ERA in his four appearances in the major leagues and appears to be getting more and more comfortable with his role.

Barring injury, it appears he'll be the fifth starter in the Red Sox rotation the rest of the way.

One thing he did particularly well was attack the strike zone -- especially against the Yankees' lefties. Tazawa pitched mostly away from the lefties in the Detroit lineup in his first start two weeks ago, conceding the Green Monster in order not to give up solid contact on the inside half of the plate. That's a mark of a rookie pitcher, a pitcher who doesn't quite believe that his stuff is good enough on its own.

Against the Yankees, though, he pitched inside to lefties with both his fastball and his curveball, and he got results. Check out the two graphs. First is his strike-zone chart -- as viewed from behind the plate -- against Detroit on Aug. 11...

... followed by his strike-zone chart against the Yankees on Saturday:

He also disguised his curveball far better in terms of release point, not giving away his pitch simply with the location of his hand when he let go of the ball. (The idea is for each pitch to come out of the hand in the same spot, so if the purple data points are distinguishable from the other data points, that's a problem.)

The first chart, again, is that start against Detroit...

... and the second is Saturday against New York.

Tazawa has all the goods to be a terrific major-league pitcher. He's not exactly the ground-ball specialist Buchholz is -- he recorded 11 fly-ball outs on Saturday and just four ground-ball outs -- but he's making a case right now to be part of the Red Sox rotation from the get-go next season.

6. Matsuzaka (rehabbing)
The pitcher who finished third in Cy Young voting is expected to make a rehab start in the Gulf Coast League on Monday and begin to climb the minor-league ladder from there. He might be a maddening pitcher at times, but he did throw seven shutout innings in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series a year ago and was viewed as the team's clear-cut No. 3 starter before the season.

If Matsuzaka returns in time to show off his progress before the season ends, he might again be that No. 3 starter in the team's postseason rotation.

7. Paul Byrd (in the minors)
Desperate times call for desperate measures, and the struggles of Penny and Smoltz prompted the Red Sox to sign Byrd to a contract in hopes he could round himself into form in time for the stretch run. The veteran threw 74 pitches in four innings for the PawSox on Wednesday, surrendering three runs on six hits, and he'll likely pitch twice more in Pawtucket before rosters expand on Sept. 1.

8. Bowden (in the minors)
Don't make too much of Bowden's disastrous two innings against the Yankees. For one thing, he's been a starting pitcher all season and not only did he have to pitch in relief on Friday, he had to do so (a) after having warmed up once already only to sit back down; (b) with runners on first and third and no outs; and (c) against a lineup already feeling good about itself, as Francona would say.

If Wakefield gets hurt again and neither Matsuzaka nor Byrd pan out, Bowden likely would become the team's fifth starter in September.

9. Brad Penny (in limbo)
Here's the chart from Friday that tells the story:

Penny threw his fastball with good velocity (95 miles an hour) and even offset it with changeups, sliders and curveballs. But everything he threw was right down the middle of the plate. You can't win pitching like that.

Penny indicated earlier this season he has no desire to pitch out of the bullpen. He might not, however, have any say in the matter. His repertoire actually makes him a better fit as a reliever than as a starter, and he'd have a vested interest in performing well in mop-up duty as he heads back out on the open market this winter. (You can bet the Mets will be watching.)

With rosters due to expand a week from Tuesday, the Red Sox appear to have no reason to release Penny outright. If they can stash him away for seven or eight days, they can use him in mop-up duty out of the bullpen. If something goes terribly wrong in mid-September -- such as half the starting rotation catching swine flu -- he can make a spot start. Otherwise, though, he's all finished pitching meaningful innings in Boston.

N/A. Smoltz (DFA'ed) and Masterson (traded to Cleveland)
Both are gone. Neither is coming back.

Masterson, though, earned his first win as a member of the Cleveland Indians on Thursday night, tossing 6 1/3 strong innings to beat the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. He now has a 3.78 ERA since the Red Sox traded him to the Indians as part of the Victor Martinez deal on July 24.

But you have to give something to get something, right?

Dice-K to start working with shorter timetables

Daisuke Matsuzaka was in Boston on Friday to throw in the outfield and to meet with Red Sox management, but he was scheduled to fly back to Florida on Friday night to resume his rehab program. Red Sox manager Terry Francona sat down with Matsuzaka for a 90-minute conversation this afternoon -- the length in part because every sentence had to be translated -- to discuss his progress and the plan for the immediate future.

There is no timetable set for Matsuzaka's return. Instead, rather than set some long-term goals -- such as pitching off a mound by Aug. 15 and pitching in rehab games by Sept. 1, for example -- the pitcher will work with short-term goals and evaluate his progress on a more regular basis.

"That's maybe where we've erred in the past," Francona said, likely referring to Matsuzaka's first DL stint this season. "We're going to keep it in short segments, weekly goals, and keep arriving at those goals and communicate and either continue or change or back off where needed. ...

"Rather than point to things like (a bullpen session), we're going to continue the progression and try not to do it backwards and keep the goals a little bit shorter."

But will he pitch again this year?

"I hope so," Francona said. "I certainly hope so."

No timetable for Dice-K

Red Sox manager Terry Francona said Friday that it's far too early to set any goals or expectations for the return of Daisuke Matsuzaka to the Red Sox rotation.

"We really don't have a timetable," he said. "This time, we're going to make sure he's ready to pitch. We have something in our head that we maybe think is realistic, but it's a long way off -- and it's entirely going to be based on how he's doing."

Matsuzaka was expected to play catch from 60 feet on flat ground today, the first time he'd thrown since the Red Sox shut him down indefinitely on June 21. He's been working on his strength but doing nothing baseball-related over the last two weeks.

He'll spend the weekend in Boston to avoid traveling on the holiday weekend and fly to Fort Myers, Fla., to start fresh with a shoulder-strengthening program. In a lot of ways, it'll be like the start of spring training all over again.

"He needed a little bit of a break mentally, too," Francona said. "That was, more than anything, the idea behind giving him some time off. ... Sometimes you just get fried. He worked hard when we were gone without a baseball, and now we'll get a ball back in his hands just to play catch. As he gets stronger, that will certainly increase."

Matsuzaka on DL, so Brown gets first call-up

Having waited until the horde of reporters cleared out of the way, Dusty Brown wandered over toward the office of Red Sox manager Terry Francona. He walked over slowly, not sure whether he should knock on the half-open door or wait for someone to come out and say something to him.

It was like being called to the principal's office -- only the exact opposite.

The Red Sox today placed Daisuke Matsuzaka on the disabled list with weakness in his throwing shoulder, weakness that Francona maintains stems from his inability to ease into his throwing this spring the way the team's other pitchers did. Instead of throwing two innings and taking it easy the first time he faced hitters, Matsuzaka "pitched in earnest before he was ready to," Francona said. "There's no getting around that. I don't know how you can. You just hope it doesn't affect your guys."

There was no reason to activate John Smoltz until Thurday, though, which meant the Red Sox essentially would have been wasting a roster spot for most of the week. Brown was recalled hastily from Triple-A Pawtucket -- he flew in this morning from Durham, N.C. -- to provide a little depth at catcher and ensure Jason Varitek wouldn't have to play today even if something were to happen to George Kottaras.

"When I came down and talked to Theo (Epstein), I was like, 'You know, we've got a day off Monday, and it's almost like a free roster spot until Smoltz comes back on,'" Francona said. "I said, 'You know what? We always try to stay away from 'Tek on a day game, and Dusty is almost on the roster.' He was like, 'Let's get him here.'"

Brown had to be pulled out of the shower late Saturday night after the PawSox pulled out a come-from-behind victory over the Durham Bulls. Early this morning, he was on a quick flight from the Raleigh-Durham airport to Boston. His flight landed at 10:30 a.m., and he walked into the clubhouse right around 11.

He hadn't yet had a chance to greet many of the players when reporters surrounded him at his new locker in the corner. He was especially looking forward to finding Kottaras, with whom he split catching duties at Pawtucket last season.

"I haven't even seen Georgie yet," he said. "He hasn't been in the clubhouse since I've been in here. I'll definitely be in his ear all day."

Brown will stay with the team for the next three days or so -- including the off-day on Monday -- before being dispatched back to Triple-A Pawtucket on Thursday to make room for Smoltz.

"I'm looking forward to whatever I get when I'm here," he said. "I'm just excited to be here."

Brown is hitting .239 and OBP'ing .347 in 163 at-bats at Triple-A Pawtucket this season. The fact that Michael Bowden and Clay Buchholz have a 1.90 ERA and 3.26 ERA, respectively, and the PawSox have the third-best ERA (3.39) in the International League means he's doing that part of his job pretty well.

"It's been up and down," he said. "Defensively, it's been pretty good, and what our pitching staff has done has been pretty good. I've struggled offensively more than I would like to, but there's been some bright spots."

None of that matters now, though: He's in the big leagues.

Beckett lets pitching do the talking

Here's a contrast for you: While the Red Sox were stuffing their No. 3 starter in an MRI tube and diagnosing weakness in his arm that almost certainly will land him on the disabled list, their No. 1 starter needed just 94 pitches to toss a complete game against the same team that had absolutely pounded the aforementioned No. 3 starter the night before.

Even better, it was a tremendous bounce-back effort from an ace who had allowed six earned runs in six innings the last time he pitched. He gave a taxed bullpen a night off, and he gave a packed house at Fenway Park something to cheer from start to finish.

"He had good, quality location with his fastball, changed the tilt of his fastball, threw his sinker and four-seamer," catcher Jason Varitek said. "I don't think he had a great breaking ball tonight. He had good break to it, but he didn't have as good of a feel. He mixed in some changeups and cutters. Strike one with quality location."

"I thought he pitched unbelievable," shortstop Nick Green said. "His location was good with his fastball again today, and he was throwing everything else for strikes, too. He was fun to play behind, and he made it a quick game and got a lot of outs quick, so it was fun."

"It was good," Josh Beckett said.

The Red Sox ace allowed five hits and struck out 11 seven en route to his first complete game of the season. He had a chance to let things get out of hand in the eighth inning but started the inning-ending double play himself, fielding a one-hopper and throwing a strike to Green at second base.

"J.D. (Drew) thought I was going to put my glove down and swing at it," Green said. "It was a perfect throw, so it's easy to turn like that."

"That was probably the biggest pitch," Beckett said.

He then needed just five pitches -- including two 96-mile-an-hour fastballs -- to retire the side in order in the ninth inning. His velocity seemed to dip a little bit in the middle innings, but he looked as strong in the ninth inning as he did in the first.

"The whole game of baseball is predicated on the fastball," Beckett said. "It wouldn't do you any good to go out there and throw nothing but changeups if you don't throw any fastballs."

The 3-0 victory pushed the team's lead in the American League East to three games over the Yankees, losers by a 2-1 score in Florida on Saturday.

"We played good defense and scored enough runs," Beckett said.

The Braves had jumped all over Daisuke Matsuzaka on Friday. Nate McLouth hit the first pitch into the bullpen, and Matsuzaka never really recovered. Beckett threw strikes from the start -- he missed the strike zone just twice in the first inning, and one of those was a pitch in the dirt that led to Chipper Jones being thrown out trying to get to second base.

The more aggressive the Braves got, the better the Red Sox ace got.

"Efficiency sometimes is how aggressive they are," Varitek said. "They were aggressive and put some balls in play earlier in the count, and that's big for a power pitcher like Josh."

"We had a good plan going in, and I think we executed it really well," Beckett said.

The result was that he outpitched former Red Sox star Derek Lowe, who pitched 6 1/3 solid innings in his first trip back to Fenway Park since he received his World Series ring four years ago.

"D-Lowe, that's the guy we've seen so much," Francona said. "When it's down, there's not a lot you can do with it. You know what's coming, but it's hard to get it in the air. One inning, we squared up three balls and didn't have much to show for it. We stayed in the middle, and then he really established the two-seamer down and the breaking ball, and it was hard for us to do much with it. ... He was the guy we remember when he was going good. That was pretty effective."

"I'm trying to stay pitch-to-pitch and just worry about myself," Beckett said. "I can't worry about what everyone else is doing."

He did, however, notice the ovation Lowe got from the Red Sox faithful upon his exit from the game, a well-deserved tribute for the critical postseason innings he pitched in 2004.

"The Boston fans, they don't forget their guys," Braves manager Bobby Cox said. "You would absolutely think that they would give him a standing ovation."

"Yeah, I saw it," Beckett said. "It was good."

Matsuzaka likely DL-bound

Daisuke Matsuzaka underwent an MRI exam and several strength tests before and during Saturday's game against the Braves. Red Sox manager Terry Francona was not about to make any kind of announcement -- the Red Sox don't have to make a roster move until Thursday -- but it didn't sound like Matsuzaka was going to go anywhere but on the disabled list.

"I don't think it's any surprise that there's some weakness we're going to have to fix," he said. "We've been fighting this all year. It's been hard. I know I keep coming back to the (World Baseball Classic) and that's probably not a real popular thing in baseball to say that, but he didn't really have a chance to get a foundation. He ramped up to try to get people out, probably, before he was ready. Physically, it's happened to pitchers where they're pitching in earnest before their bodies or their arms are ready to do that. I think we've paid the price for that. We've been playing catch-up. We did what we thought was right to shut him down earlier, and I think we all see that it's not really getting better. It's been a struggle."

Red Sox to skip Dice-K's next start

Red Sox manager Terry Francona said this afternoon that the Red Sox are going to run some tests to find an injury that explains why Daisuke Matsuzaka has been so ineffective this season.

OK, Francona didn't say it quite that way. Here's what he did say:

"We stayed here late last night, Theo (Epstein) and John Farrell, and we came back this morning because we have some decisions to make on our rotation. What we talked about and met and decided was, going forward next week, we are not going to start Dice-K. When he got here today, we called him in to talk about that. It became apparent, into the meeting, that ... we need to get him looked at physically.

"It's Saturday afternoon, and, hopefully, that process will get started quickly. He will be looked at by (team doctor) Tom Gill and the trainers, and ... you're talking about potential MRIs that may not be done at quarter to 4 on a Saturday when we just got done with our meeting. But that all will be coming fairly soon, hopefully, and we will try to get better answers."

Here's more: "We need to get him looked at physically. It all started with the (World Baseball Classic) and him not having, in his own words, a consistent base. We've been fighting that all year and continue to. When you take a guy out of the rotation, rather than just take a guy out of the rotation, we want to fix it. It became very obvious as we talked to him that we need to look at some things physically."

Here's more: "I've watched him for three years now, and it looks to me like he's struggling to get the velocity he could get before a little easier. That's consistent with when he came back after the WBC. He ramped up pretty quick to pitch in games that meant a lot to him, and I understand that, but there wasn't that base to build off for the entire season."

Here's even more: "When we get out of a meeting at 3:30, we can't have a medical opinion at 4:15. It's just not going to happen."

Here's still more, in response to a question about putting Matsuzaka on the disabled list: "We don't have to do something. He pitched yesterday. We're certainly not going to pitch him tomorrow. We've got Monday off. We'd rather go slower and use proper judgment. That's what we'll do. In fairness to him and us and everybody, we'll do it correctly."

You can take all that however you want. Francona himself said things he and others say tend to be construed numerous different ways. You can, however, take several things to be absolutely true:

1. The Red Sox do not believe Matsuzaka is a viable option to make his next start.
2. The Red Sox do not know of any injury afflicting Matsuzaka at this point.
3. The Red Sox are going to do everything they can to figure out what is wrong with Matsuzaka.

From here? The smart money is on Matsuzaka being placed on the disabled list with whatever injury the Red Sox medical team finds. His fastball velocity is down a tick from last year, and that might be justification enough.

Smoltz will assume Matsuzaka's spot in the Red Sox rotation on Thursday. Beyond that? The Red Sox have no answers. They wish they did.

Red Sox have luxury of skipping a Dice-K start

Terry Francona loves to tell reporters they're getting way ahead of him -- particularly when it comes to his pitching.

No one bothered, then, to ask Francona immediately after the game if Daisuke Matsuzaka would make his next scheduled start. The only question along those lines was more vague than that: What do you do from here?

"We've got an off-day Monday, and we'll certainly sit down," the Red Sox manager said. "We have the ability to be a little flexible in what we do going forward. Saying that, I don't know that it makes a lot of sense to do something beofre the off-day. We'll see where we line up after that."

Pitching John Farrell, asked specifically when Matsuzaka would make his next start. John Smoltz already is lined up to pitch on Thursday in Washington, the day Matsuzaka's next turn in the rotation comes up.

"Until that determination comes from within, we haven't announced a rotation beyond that," Farrell said.

Matsuzaka, though, wasn't vague.

"If I keep going like this, I have no right to be part of this rotation," he said through interpreter Masa Hoshino.

He's not kidding. He began the game with a fastball right over the heart of the plate that Nate McLouth hit into the Atlanta Braves' bullpen in right field. He then threw a fastball over the middle that Yunel Escobar ripped into left field for a single, and he followed that with a fastball down and in that Chipper Jones yanked into right field for a double.

(Give credit to the Braves for having the right game plan. Matsuzaka normally is a pitcher who nibbles around the strike zone, but he's made more of an effort in his last couple of starts to throw the ball over the plate with more consistency. The Braves adjusted accordingly and jumped all over him.)

After that, he decided he didn't want to throw the ball in the strike zone anymore -- and he threw eight straight balls to Brian McCann and Garret Anderson, forcing home a run.

Only an unbelievably lucky break saved him -- Casey Kotchman's rocket of a line drive hit Kevin Youkilis right in the glove and right in a spot where he could double up Anderson to end the inning with the Red Sox still in the game.

"It's just him executing his pitches," catcher Jason Varitek said. "Everyone's making a grand deal about something that he can do -- and he'll be able to do. If he's not, he's going to have those results."

Said Matsuzaka, "After I came out of the game, I checked myself on the video. What I saw was completely different from what I actually thought I was doing, so I was quite disappointed."

The Red Sox are going to have some decisions to make. Here are some of the options:

* Stick with Matsuzaka.
It's an option. As Francona and Farrell say every time they get the chance, Matsuzaka won more than 30 games in his first two big-league seasons. He had to have been doing something right.

"We have confidence in everybody," second baseman Dustin Pedroia said. "Everybody goes through tough times. You play so many games. He's had so many starts that he's going to have a bad start, but there's going to be more good starts than bad starts, I can guarantee you that. We're confident that he's going to bounce back and be fine."

* Send Matsuzaka to Triple-A.
Per his contract, Matsuzaka can't be sent to Pawtucket without his permission -- but the way he was talking on Friday night, he sounded like it might be a bigger blow to his pride to get shelled than it would be to get demoted.

It would give Daniel Bard a reprieve, anyway.

* Place Matsuzaka on the disabled list.
This is a popular suggestion, but it's not an easy one to pull off given that Matsuzaka is showing no sign of any kind of physical ailment. Heck, he's not even pretending like there's any kind of physical ailment.

"No structural issues," Farrell said. "No health issues. It's a matter of more consistent location."

It'd be a tough sell, given that the league already has started to talk about disabled-list shenanigans and teams using the disabled list to stash players who are ineffective rather than injured.

* Skip Matsuzaka's next start.
Don't rule it out. The Red Sox have six starting pitchers and already have slotted Smoltz into the schedule where Matsuzaka next is scheduled to pitch. The Red Sox easily could leave the two-time World Baseball Classic MVP on the active roster but skip his next start and give him until June 30 at Baltimore for him to work through his command issues and find some solutions.

Josh Beckett, Tim Wakefield, Brad Penny and Jon Lester would follow Smoltz in order, on normal rest, and the Red Sox would have 10 days to figure out what's wrong with their $51 million man.

The only downside would be a shorthanded bullpen. Given that no one is being shipped out when Smoltz returns, the Red Sox will be operating with a shorthanded bullpen anyway -- and if they can't survive a three-game series with the Washington Nationals with six relievers, they're going to have bigger problems on their hands.

How the Red Sox rotation shakes out

Terry Francona and John Smoltz both made the announcement that Smoltz will make his first Red Sox start on June 25, a week from Thursday, against the woeful Washington Nationals.

Daisuke Matsuzaka, who was hammered today in a Boston Herald column Francona did not enjoy -- "I feel bad for the players sometimes," he said. "I didn't realize what the players were going through publicly, and I feel bad about that." -- will not be bumped from the rotation. Instead, he'll be pushed back a day. So, too, will the rest of the Red Sox starting staff -- and the Red Sox will indeed employ a six-man starting rotation until the All-Star Game.

(That means the first big-league stint of rookie Daniel Bard is likely to come to an end on June 24, the day before Smoltz is activated. Bard can easily be dispatched back to Pawtucket, and he and Clay Buchholz can resume carving up Triple-A hitters together.)

Here's how the Red Sox rotation would shake out in the 10 days or so after Smoltz makes his Red Sox debut:

* June 25 at Washington: Smoltz (seven days' rest)
* June 26 at Atlanta: Matsuzaka (six days' rest)
* June 27 at Atlanta: Josh Beckett (six days' rest)
* June 28 at Atlanta: Tim Wakefield (six days' rest)
* June 29 at Baltimore: Brad Penny (five days' rest)
* June 30 at Baltimore: Jon Lester (five days' rest)
* July 1 at Baltimore: Smoltz (five days' rest)
* July 3 vs. Seattle: Matsuzaka (six days' rest)
* July 4 vs. Seattle: Beckett (six days' rest)
* July 5 vs. Seattle: Wakefield (six days' rest)
* July 6 vs. Oakland: Penny (six days' rest)
* July 7 vs. Oakland: Lester (six days' rest)
* July 8 vs. Oakland: Smoltz (six days' rest)

It's a gamble. There's no question about it. Pitching on five or six days' rest is an adjustment for players accustomed to pitching on four days' rest; Wakefield and Smoltz both have better career numbers on four days' rest than five.

On top of that, removing Bard from the bullpen would increase the strain on the remaining relievers -- and Hideki Okajima and Ramon Ramirez already are among the American League leaders in appearances.

But if the Red Sox can get to the All-Star Game without having lost a starter or burned out their bullpen, they'll be in a position of tremendous strength as they decide what do to with their glut of quality starting pitching.

Red Sox not "scrambling" for pitching

Justin Masterson saved the Red Sox from having to empty their bullpen completely on Tuesday night. He'll also save the Red Sox from having to scramble for pitchers -- as opposed to what some would have you believe -- in the aftermath of Daisuke Matsuzaka's bout with arm fatigue.

Yes, the Red Sox will need Tim Wakefield to pitch deep into today's game in Oakland to save wear and tear on a bullpen that employed six of its seven arms in Tuesday's 12-inning loss. But the fact that Masterson threw four outstanding innings meant the Red Sox (a) didn't have to use Takashi Saito, and (b) didn't need either Ramon Ramirez or Jonathan Papelbon to throw more than 20 pitches, making them potentially available today.

(It would help, too, if the Red Sox got a better outing from Wakefield than the disaster he turned in the last time he pitched in Oakland: He allowed eight earned runs in five innings en route to an 8-3 defeat.)

The Red Sox have a scheduled day off on Thursday, meaning Manny Delcarmen (36 pitches on Tuesday), Hideki Okajima (28 pitches on Tuesday) and Javy Lopez (25 pitches on Tuesday) will have back-to-back days off and be ready to go against the Orioles on Friday.

(It's worth keeping in mind that the A's, too, emptied their bullpen thanks to the ineffectiveness of Dana Eveland. Andrew Bailey, Russ Springer and Brad Ziegler all threw more than 20 pitches on Tuesday. Bob Geren won't have much more available than Terry Francona will. Jerry Blevins, anyone?)

And in five days, if Matsuzaka isn't able to take the ball when his spot in the rotation comes around, Masterson is perfectly in line to get that start.

It only makes sense. The Red Sox treated him as a candidate to start throughout the spring and only began to limit his innings in the final week or two in Fort Myers. He's a valued eighth-inning guy -- his first two appearances notwithstanding -- but the Red Sox have always known they can turn him back into a starting pitcher if necessary. He even threw 81 pitches in a minor-league game on March 27, less than three weeks ago.

He threw 60 pitches in relief of Matsuzaka on Tuesday, a heavy workload for a reliever but a relatively light day for a starter. He'd get five days to rest and five days to throw a bullpen session or two in preparation for a Patriots' Day start next Monday. He's been a starter for most of his life; he had a 3.67 ERA in nine big-league starts last season, a stat that looks even better when you consider that opponents hit .206 and slugged .366 off him.

Clay Buchholz might yet be needed to plug the hole left by Josh Beckett if the ace's suspension isn't reduced. The phenom righty actually is on the same schedule as Beckett; he last pitched on Sunday and is in line to pitch on Friday and again the following Wednesday.

But he's an option to fill in for Matsuzaka, too; the Red Sox could limit his innings on Friday with an eye on giving him a big-league start on Monday.

Either way, the Red Sox have options. This is what happens when you have quality pitching depth in your organization -- you don't have to scramble for pitchers.

The Angels, another team with World Series aspirations, have had to scramble for pitching. Kelvim Escobar, John Lackey and Ervin Santana all are on the disabled list. (That's not to mention the tragic death of top prospect Nick Adenhart in a car accident last week.) Mike Scioscia has had to fall back on Darren Oliver (yes, Darren Oliver) and the old reliable To Be Announced when lining up his starting rotation this week.

The Angels are scrambling.

The Red Sox are shuffling. If Matsuzaka can't go, Masterson can pitch. If Beckett is suspended, Buchholz can pitch. John Smoltz still is on the way.

The Red Sox never wanted anything to happen to any of their starting pitchers. But Matsuzaka's injury and Beckett's suspension demonstrates just why you can never have too much pitching depth. Most other teams would scramble in this situation. The Red Sox don't have to.

Joyce home run detours Dice-K

Daisuke Matsuzaka announced this spring his intention to throw more strikes, to be more economical with his pitch count and thus to take the Red Sox deeper into games.

Even after an outing Thursday in which he'd lasted just 5 1/3 innings but still thrown 100 pitches, he maintained his intention to pitch the way the Red Sox wanted him to pitch.

"Even while I was in Japan, I wanted to go deep to help our bullpen, and right now, not being able to go deep is stressful both for myself and the team," he said through an interpreter.

He wasn't that far off, though, from executing his game plan. The first inning actually went swimmingly -- he struck out Akinori Iwamura on four pitches to start the inning, and he struck out Willy Aybar on four pitches to end it. In between, the only time he even went to a three-ball count (the Matsuzaka special) was when he walked Carlos Pena on six pitches.

He looked like he was right on track when he opened the second, too. With outfielder Matt Joyce at the plate, he threw a fastball on the outside corner, a changeup just off the outside corner and a slider on the inside corner to work the count to 1-2.

With his next pitch, though, his fastball caught just a little too much of the plate -- and Joyce deposited it into the first row of seats behind the bullpen.

After that, things started to unravel a little bit. He missed twice to Gabe Gross before inducing a ground ball to second, and he went to a 3-1 count on Shawn Riggans before getting a ground ball to third.

And to start off the fourth, he walked Iwamura on four pitches. Two batters later -- Matsuzaka went to a 2-0 count on Carl Crawford before striking him out -- Evan Longoria hit a hanging slider over the Green Monster.

From then on, it was tough to worry about being economical. It was enough to worry about getting outs.

"There were nine hits, three walks -- that's a lot of baserunners," manager Terry Francona said. "Sometimes, when there's baserunners, you start pitching toward the game, also, and not giving in. Maybe sometimes one thing can lead to the other."

A pitcher has to have confidence to attack the strike zone. Matsuzaka looked like he was pitching with confidence to start the game -- but it's tough to keep that confidence when you see your best fastball blasted into the right-field seats.

Countdown to spring training: Starting pitching

Truck Day is Friday. Pitchers and catchers report on Feb. 13. Spring training games start Feb. 25. The American League champion Rays come to Fenway Park on April 6.

It might be snowing outside -- at least, it's snowing here at One If By Land headquarters on the South Shore. But it's almost time for baseball to begin! With that in mind, we'll examine a few storylines at each position on the field for the Red Sox -- starting with, well, the starters.

The Red Sox enter the season with perhaps the best 1-2-3 punch in the American League and plenty of depth -- though no one beyond those first three starters can be classified as anything close to a sure thing.

Locks
Josh Beckett (will turn 29 years old in May)
2008: 12-10, 4.03 ERA, 172 K, 34 BB
2007: 20-7, 3.27 ERA, 194 K, 40 BB
2006: 16-11, 5.01 ERA, 158 K, 74 BB
An oblique injury caused him problems in the postseason, where he previously had made himself a reputation as one of the best the game has ever seen. (Despite allowing 14 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings last postseason, he still has a 2.90 ERA in his 13 postseason appearances.) There's no reason he can't win 17 or 18 games and turn in a sub-3.50 ERA and regain his rightful place as the ace of the staff.

Jon Lester (just turned 25 years old)
2008: 16-6, 3.21 ERA, 152 K, 66 BB
2007: 4-0, 4.57 ERA, 50 K, 31 BB; season interrupted by lymphoma
2006: 7-2, 4.76 ERA, 60 K, 43 BB
The cancer is long gone. The only issue now, in fact, might be the wear and tear on his shoulder from his first 200-inning season. He threw 106 innings in 2003, 91 innings in 2004, 148 1/3 innings in 2005, 128 1/3 innings in 2006, 153 innings in 2007 and then 210 1/3 in 2008. That's a big jump. Terry Francona raved last fall about the weight he's added to his body, and that's certainly going to help his endurance. But the Red Sox will have to be wary if he's on a 200-inning pace midway through this season -- even if he's once again pitching like a Cy Young Award candidate.

Daisuke Matsuzaka (turned 28 years old last September)
2008: 18-3, 2.90 ERA, 154 K, 94 BB
2007: 15-12, 4.40 ERA, 201 K, 80 BB
The notorious nibbler walked a league-worst 94 batters a year ago and averaged an even 100 pitchers per start even though he lasted approximately 5 2/3 innings per start. That was a problem. But just about everything else went well -- opponents hit .211 off him for the season, he allowed just 12 home runs, and he allowed either zero earned runs or one earned run in 12 of his 29 starts. And if he can figure out how to throw strikes more consistently -- he walked four or more hitters in 11 of his 29 starts -- he might get the Cy Young consideration that his numbers say he deserved last season.

In the mix
Clay Buchholz (will turn 25 in August)
2008 (majors): 2-9, 6.75 ERA, 72 K, 41 BB
2008 (minors): 5-2, 2.30 ERA, 61 K, 18 BB
2007 (majors): 3-1, 1.59 ERA, 22 K, 10 BB
2007 (minors): 8-5, 2.44 ERA, 171 K, 35 BB
Here's one thing people haven't discussed much about Buchholz -- he seemed to run into some extraordinary bad luck during his big-league stint last season. A pitcher can only control so much on his own. There isn't a whole lot of luck involved in walks or strikeouts -- that depends on the pitcher's skill. There isn't a whole lot of luck involved in home runs, either. If a hitter crushes one, that's usually because the pitcher made a bad pitch. But almost everything else is out of the pitcher's hands. If the pitcher has runners on first and third with one out, a ground ball could either end the inning or keep everything rolling depending on whether it's hit right at the third baseman or in the hole between third base and shortstop.

The stat BAPIP -- batting average on balls put in play -- can be an indicator of a pitcher who's seeing a lot of ground balls find those holes or fly balls drop between outfielders. A pitcher with a high BAPIP often can expect to see his numbers improve the next season as his luck returns to a more normal level.

Here are the BAPIP numbers for the top five Red Sox starters last season:
Wakefield: .240
Matsuzaka: .260
Lester: .300
Beckett: .318
Buchholz: .355

Brad Penny (will turn 31 in May)
2008: 6-9, 6.27 ERA, 51 K, 48 BB
2007: 16-4, 3.03 ERA, 136 K, 73 BB
2006: 16-9, 4.33 ERA, 148 K, 54 BB
Injuries cost Penny a good chunk of his season a year ago -- he missed half of June, all of July, half of August and most of September. And when he did pitch, the results weren't good. He gave up 10 runs in 4 2/3 innings in a loss to the Mets in May, and he gave up seven runs a in 3 2/3 innings in a loss to the Tigers in June. If those injuries remain a factor, he won't spend much time on the Fenway Park mound. But if those injuries are behind him, the Red Sox might have themselves the steal of the free-agent season.

Consider the following comparison:
Player A (249 games) : 94-75, 4.06 ERA, 1,032 K, 475 BB
Player B (220 games) 86-67, 4.02 ERA, 1,132 K, 524 BB

Player A is the career of Brad Penny. Player B is the first nine seasons of the career of Jason Schmidt -- who then went 18-7 with a 3.20 ERA and 251 strikeouts in his 10th season.

Curt Schilling (just turned 42)
Just kidding.

John Smoltz (will turn 42 in May)
2008: 3-2, 2.57 ERA, 36 K, 8 BB
2007: 14-8, 3.11 ERA, 197 K, 47 BB
2006: 16-9, 3.49 ERA, 211 K, 55 BB
Shoulder surgery ended last season for Smoltz after just six starts. Some wondered if he'd join former Braves rotation-mate Greg Maddux in retirement -- and on the Hall of Fame ballot for 2014. But he signed an incentive-laden contract with the Red Sox this winter with an eye on the second half of the season as well as the playoffs, where no pitcher in history has more wins than his 15.

He's certainly getting up there in age. But he still hasn't had an ERA over 4.00 in 15 years, and he's averaged fewer than eight strikeouts per nine innings just once since 2000. As long as he gets his shoulder healthy -- and the Red Sox will give him all the time he needs to do that -- he can be a factor down the stretch. The fascinating question will be whether he'll bump someone from the rotation or whether the Red Sox might try the unorthodox approach of employing six starting pitchers in August and September.

Consider this:
Beckett: Oblique injury torched his postseason.
Lester: Set a new career high in innings pitched last season -- by a wide margin.
Matsuzaka: Was used to five or six days of rest between starts in Japan.
Buchholz: Has never thrown more than 150 innings in his career.
Penny: Coming off injury.
Smoltz: Coming off injury.

Tim Wakefield (will turn 43 in August -- which equates to 35 or 36 in knuckleballer years)
2008: 10-11, 4.13 ERA, 117 K, 60 BB
2007: 17-12, 4.76 ERA, 110 K, 64 BB
2006: 7-11, 4.63 ERA, 90 K, 51 BB
The image that lingers is the shellacking Wakefield absorbed in Game 4 of the American League Championship Series against Tampa Bay -- he surrendered three home runs in 2 2/3 innings of work and never gave his team a chance to win. But in the regular season, he turned in his lowest ERA and lowest WHIP (walks and hits allowed per inning pitched) in half a decade and lasted an average of six innings per start.

With Doug Mirabelli and Kevin Cash gone, he might no longer have a personal catcher -- and that might have an effect on his rhythm on the mound. You know exactly what you're going to get from him every year -- between 10 and 14 wins and an ERA somewhere in the vicinity of 4.50. Then again, should Penny and Buchholz look sharp in spring training, he might be the odd man out.

Batter-pitcher matchups: ALCS Game 5

(The numbers here have been updated to include each pitcher's first start in this series.)

Boston against Scott Kazmir (6-7, 3.86 ERA in 22 career starts, including 4 1/3 innings, 5 ER in Game 2)
Good
Jason Bay: 4-for-11 (.364), HR, 4 RBI
Coco Crisp: 10-for-32 (.313), 4 2B
Dustin Pedroia: 16-for-28 (.571), 3 HR, 5 RBI
Bad
J.D. Drew: 1-for-7 (.143), 3B
David Ortiz: 8-for-40 (.200), 2 HR, 8 RBI
Jason Varitek: 6-for-30 (.200), HR, 4 RBI
Kevin Youkilis: 9-for-38 (.237), HR, 3 RBI

Tampa Bay against Daisuke Matsuzaka (3-3, 3.27 ERA in nine career starts, including seven shutout innings in Game 1)
Good
Carl Crawford: 4-for-13 (.308)
Akinori Iwamura: 10-for-27 (.370), HR, RBI
Carlos Pena: 5-for-17 (.294), HR, 4 RBI
Bad
Jason Bartlett: 1-for-14 (.071), RBI
Dioner Navarro: 3-for-21 (.143), HR, 2 RBI
B.J. Upton: 2-for-17 (.118), HR, 2 RBI

Batter-pitcher matchups: ALCS Game 1

Here are a few batter-pitcher matchups to watch tonight for the Red Sox and Rays as the American League Championship Series opens in Tampa:

Tampa Bay against Daisuke Matsuzaka (2-3, 3.75 in eight starts vs. Rays)
Good
Akinori Iwamura: 9-for-24 (.375), HR, RBI
Carlos Pena: 5-for-16 (.313), HR, 4 RBI
Bad
Jason Bartlett: 1-for-11 (.091)
Dioner Navarro: 3-for-18 (.167), HR, 2 RBI
B.J. Upton: 1-for-13 (.077), solo HR

Boston against James Shields (2-4, 5.23 ERA in eight starts vs. Red Sox)
Good
J.D. Drew: 5-for-15 (.333), HR, 2 RBI
David Ortiz: 7-for-14 (.500), 2 HR, 6 RBI
Dustin Pedroia: 5-for-10 (.500), RBI
Bad
Jacoby Ellsbury: 1-for-10 (.100)
Jason Varitek: 1-for-10 (.100)
Kevin Youkilis: 0-for-17 (.000)*

*That is a really, really ugly number.

Rotation set: Dice-K, Beckett, Lester, Wakefield

Terry Francona today announced his rotation for the American League Championship Series:

Game 1 (Friday in Tampa Bay): Daisuke Matsuzaka
Game 2 (Saturday in Tampa Bay): Josh Beckett
Game 3 (Monday at Fenway Park): Jon Lester
Game 4 (Tuesday at Fenway Park): Tim Wakefield
Game 5 (Thursday, Oct. 16, at Fenway Park, if necessary): Matsuzaka
Game 6 (Saturday, Oct. 18, at Tropicana Field, if necessary): Beckett
Game 7 (Sunday, Oct. 19, at Tropicana Field, if necessary): Lester

Francona said he didn't spent too much time looking at matchups, home-road splits, indoor-outdoor splits, anything like that. For his pitchers, he said, the biggest factor was rest and routine.

"The reasoning is actually pretty simple," he said. "It gives people rest -- not too much rest, and not too little. This is the best way and not have one guy going on eight (days' rest) and another guy going on regular. We'll keep everybody somewhat in line. Rest, at this time of year, is huge, and we'll take advantage of it while trying not to give too much. ...

"You can get into a lot of details, but there didn't really need to be. The way it lined up was appropriate. For us, factoring in the fact that those three will pitch twice if it goes to seven, in the end, as long as they're pitching, the order isn't as important, so you go on what's best for them."

One natural question was his choice of Wakefield over Paul Byrd.

"We considered everything," he said. "When it comes down to what serves the ballclub best, Byrd can probably be used a little more flexibly -- is that a word? -- more flexible out of the bullpen. You line up Wake and you put him with (catcher Kevin) Cash, and you see how far he can go and you can make your determinations on how to go to the bullpen as opposed to trying bring in Wake in the middle of a game, knowing that he's possibly throwing to a catcher you haven't had (him throw to). It's kind of an easy decision when you look at all the dynamics of it."

One reporter pressed Francona on his reasons for pitching Beckett in Game 2 rather than trying to move up the scorching-hot Lester and have him available in Game 6 rather than Game 7. Francona was almost incredulous.

"If you do that, you have one guy going on normal rest who has been pushed pretty good two starts in a row, and then you have another guy that's pitched once in three weeks that would be (pitching) once in three weeks," Francona said. "Before Beckett's last start, he was the best postseason pitcher maybe in the history of the game. He had the audacity to be a little rusty after two weeks. We don't need to run away from Beckett. We need to get him on a run."

Francona has options for ALCS rotation

Terry Francona said late Monday night that he wasn't going to make any knee-jerk decisions about his roster and his pitching rotation for the American League Championship Series against the Tampa Bay Rays. You can bet that he and pitching coach John Farrell are having some in-depth conversations about how they're going to line up their pitchers for Games 1-4 for the series that starts Friday at Tropicana Field.

Here's one writer's view about how the staff should break down:

Game 1: Daisuke Matsuzaka. This one seems easy. Dice-K would have pitched Game 5 in Anaheim on Wednesday had it been necessary; instead, he'll take the ball on six days' rest against the Rays on Friday. Matsuzaka was 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA this season, and he allowed two earned runs in two starts (10 innings pitched) at Tropicana Field.

He made eight starts this season on six days' rest and had a 3.05 ERA; he actually was better on five days' rest (6-1, 2.49 ERA) than on four. But if he starts Game 1, he'd be ready to come back for Game 5 on, you guessed it, five days' rest.

Game 2: Josh Beckett. There's a temptation, given the way he pitched against Los Angeles and given that he'll be on regular rest, to bring back Jon Lester in this spot. Lester has been a monster in the postseason thus far; he pitched 14 innings against the Angels and surrendered just one unearned run.

But let's not forget just how good Beckett is. He labored through his five innings of work on Sunday, but he'd be pitching on six days' rest and against a team he dominated this season -- he was 2-1 but had a 2.06 ERA in 35 innings pitched against Tampa Bay this season. That includes a 1.20 ERA in 15 innings pitched at Tropicana Field.

Game 3: Jon Lester. There's not much more you can say about the left-handed ace, but there are a couple of reasons to save him until Game 3. For one thing, he was 11-1 with a 2.49 ERA at home this season but 5-5 with a 4.09 ERA on the road. For another, he was spectacular (0.90 ERA in 20 innings pitched) against the Rays this season -- but all of those innings were at Fenway Park and not at Tropicana Field.

And here's one more reason: It seems unlikely that the Rays are going to dispose of the Red Sox in four or five games. If you slot Lester in here, he'll be prepared either to come back and pitch a potential Game 7 on four days rest. (And, if the Red Sox win the series without needing Lester twice, he'll be ready to take the ball in Game 1 of the World Series -- at Fenway Park.)

Game 4: Tim Wakefield. The knuckleballer's need for a personal catcher makes lineup moves complicated if he's needed out of the bullpen in the late innings. But that shouldn't be what gives him the edge here.

Unlike the Angels, the Rays present a lefty-heavy lineup. Carlos Pena is left-handed. Carl Crawford is left-handed. Gabe Gross is left-handed. Akinori Iwamura is left-handed. Cliff Floyd and Eric Hinske both are left-handed. Dioner Navarro is a switch-hitter but was better from the left side this season.

Paul Byrd has seen right-handed hitters hit .241 against him in his career (.255 this season). Left-handed hitters, on the other hand, are hitting .311 (.317 this season). Wakefield, meanwhile, has seen left-handers hit .248 against him in his career (.243 this season); right-handers (.256, .218 this season) aren't any better.

On top of that, right-hander B.J. Upton, who hit two home runs against the White Sox on Monday, is 5-for-22 (.227) with no extra-base hits in his career against Wakefield. He's 3-for-8 with a double and a walk against Byrd.