The Red Sox might spend more money than the Marlins, but that doesn't mean they don't have a budget. Bringing Billy Wagner to Boston meant assuming about $3 million in salary for the rest of the season as well as the $1 million buyout they'll have to pay in lieu of his $8 million option for 2010.
(Fairness would dictate that Wagner decline the buyout if he's the one requiring that the Red Sox not pick up the option. Life is not fair.)
The Red Sox, however, have had some money freed up lately without which they might not have made the trade.
"We had a couple of starting pitchers who were due to make a lot of money in performance bonuses," Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein said. "With some developments in recent days and recent weeks, it's clear now that there's going to be some savings in some of the money budgeted for performance bonuses that's not going to get paid out. Instead of just pocketing that money, we were allowed to look for ways to improve the club and improve our chances of getting into the postseason and winning a World Series. This was a redirection of those funds."
It doesn't take much detective work to figure out the starting pitchers to whom Epstein is referring.
The Red Sox had to eat the contract of John Smoltz when they released him, and a WEEI.com report today indicats that there's no way the Red Sox could trade Brad Penny and get out from under the money still owed to him.
But neither pitcher is going to earn all of the performance bonuses included in their contracts.
"The thought was that if they worked out, great," Epstein said. "If they worked out, our money would be well-spent. We won't necessarily need that many mid-season acquisitions. If they don't work out, there would be some savings and we could redirect that money. In a couple of cases, that seems to be the way it worked out."
Penny received a $5 million salary with the following incentives -- with a tip of the cap to Cot's Baseball Contracts:
* $500,000 for pitching 160, 170, 180 and 190 innings;
* $500,000 for appearing in 55, 65 or 75 games;
* $1 million for either 200 innings pitched for 50 games finished.
Penny, banished to the bullpen after a miserable start against the Yankees on Friday, has pitched 131 2/3 innings for the Red Sox this season. The appearances incentives never were a factor, but the Red Sox do save $3 million in the money they would have paid him had he been the 200-inning workhorse they'd hoped he would be.
Smoltz received a $5.5 million salary but stood to receive $35,000 per day he was on the major-league roster between June 1 and Oct. 3. He also stood to receive a $500,000 bonus if he was on the major-league roster on Oct. 4, the final day of the regular season.
The Red Sox designated him for assignment on Aug. 7, removing him from the major-league roster 57 days before the final day of the regular season. The total savings? Just shy of $2 million -- and that's not including the $500,000 he would have received on Oct. 4.
Overall, the struggles of Penny and Smoltz saved the Red Sox more than $5 million in incentive bonuses -- and that made it pretty easy to fit Wagner into the budget.
Showing posts with label penny. Show all posts
Showing posts with label penny. Show all posts
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Saturday, August 22, 2009
Pitching rotation: From Point A to Point B
Tim Wakefield will start Wednesday for the Red Sox in place of Brad Penny, the veteran who might have seen his Red Sox career come to an inglorious end in similar fashion to John Smoltz two weeks ago.
Smoltz was rocked by the Yankees at Yankee Stadium, and Penny was rocked by the Yankees at Fenway Park to the tune of eight runs in four innings. Red Sox manager Terry Francona didn't come with the "At least he was throwing strikes" optimism he's brought to previous post-Penny press conferences, and he told reporters this afternoon that Penny had lost his spot in the Red Sox rotation.
"I told him he's got to kind of hang tight a little bit and get through today, and then we'll go from there," Francona said.
Odds are long that Penny will make another start for the Red Sox this season. It would be easy enough to "skip" Penny in the rotation this week, optioning Enrique Gonzalez to Triple-A Pawtucket to make room for Wakefield and filling out the bullpen with extra arms when rosters expand five days later.
The return of Wakefield and the marginalization of Penny means just more upheaval in a Red Sox pitching staff many believed to be the deepest in baseball coming out of spring training. Francona and Theo Epstein developed contingency plan after contingency plan -- and they've had to put almost all of them to use.
It's amazing, really, how the Red Sox depth chart, to borrow a phrase from football, has evolved from its Opening Day incarnation to the way it looks right now:
Late March
1. Josh Beckett
2. Jon Lester
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka
4. Tim Wakefield
5. Brad Penny
6. Justin Masterson (in the bullpen)
7. John Smoltz (rehabbing)
8. Clay Buchholz (in the minors)
9. Michael Bowden (in the minors)
10. Junichi Tazawa (in the minors)
Late August
1. Beckett (3.38 ERA)
2. Lester (3.58 ERA)
Not much has changed at the top of the rotation. Beckett and Lester each have double-digit wins and a couple of complete games to go along with a strikeout-to-walk ratio right around 3.5. Only nine pitchers in the American League have a strikeout-to-walk ratio of better than 3.0, and two of them are atop the Red Sox rotation.
(Roy Halladay, by the way, has 151 strikeouts and 23 walks -- a ratio of 6.57. Amazing.)
3. Buchholz (3.99 ERA)
One thing Buchholz does better than anyone on the Red Sox pitching staff is induce the ground ball. As a team, the Red Sox have a ground ball/fly ball ratio of 0.73; that is, they allow four fly balls for every three ground balls they induce. Both Beckett and Lester do better than most -- they have GB/FB ratios of 0.90 and 0.96, respectively -- but they both still allow more fly balls than ground balls.
Not Buchholz. The 25-year-old righty has a 1.30 GB/FB ratio in his seven starts this seasno, and he's getting outs via the ground ball at a rate of better than 2-to-1. (Double plays, of course, inflate that rate. Still, though, even ground-ball specialist Justin Masterson only had a rate of ground outs to air outs of 1.59.)
If the season ended today, Buchholz almost certainly would start Game 3 of the Red Sox's first-round playoff series.
4. Wakefield (4.31 ERA)
The All-Star knuckleballer surrendered just two hits and one run in 5 2/3 solid innings for Triple-A Pawtucket on Friday and reassured the Red Sox that he could field his position well enough to pitch in the major-league rotation. He had an ERA of 4.31 in 17 starts before he landed on the disabled list with a back injury and, later, with pain related to a sciatic problem in his calf.
"He can cover his position and he's a really good pitcher," Francona told reporters on Saturday, "so I think we're OK."
He gets the edge over the team's No. 5 starter because he, if healthy, almost certainly would pitch Game 4 of any first-round playoff series. His knuckleball might always be a wild card, but he's far more difficult to bring out of the bullpen because of it.
5. Tazawa (3.57 ERA)
The 23-year-old rookie erased the memory of Penny's disastrous start by tossing six shutout innings and, perhaps even more impressively, outpitching A.J. Burnett, the Yankees' No. 2 starter. Tazawa now has a 3.57 ERA in his four appearances in the major leagues and appears to be getting more and more comfortable with his role.
Barring injury, it appears he'll be the fifth starter in the Red Sox rotation the rest of the way.
One thing he did particularly well was attack the strike zone -- especially against the Yankees' lefties. Tazawa pitched mostly away from the lefties in the Detroit lineup in his first start two weeks ago, conceding the Green Monster in order not to give up solid contact on the inside half of the plate. That's a mark of a rookie pitcher, a pitcher who doesn't quite believe that his stuff is good enough on its own.
Against the Yankees, though, he pitched inside to lefties with both his fastball and his curveball, and he got results. Check out the two graphs. First is his strike-zone chart -- as viewed from behind the plate -- against Detroit on Aug. 11...
Smoltz was rocked by the Yankees at Yankee Stadium, and Penny was rocked by the Yankees at Fenway Park to the tune of eight runs in four innings. Red Sox manager Terry Francona didn't come with the "At least he was throwing strikes" optimism he's brought to previous post-Penny press conferences, and he told reporters this afternoon that Penny had lost his spot in the Red Sox rotation.
"I told him he's got to kind of hang tight a little bit and get through today, and then we'll go from there," Francona said.
Odds are long that Penny will make another start for the Red Sox this season. It would be easy enough to "skip" Penny in the rotation this week, optioning Enrique Gonzalez to Triple-A Pawtucket to make room for Wakefield and filling out the bullpen with extra arms when rosters expand five days later.
The return of Wakefield and the marginalization of Penny means just more upheaval in a Red Sox pitching staff many believed to be the deepest in baseball coming out of spring training. Francona and Theo Epstein developed contingency plan after contingency plan -- and they've had to put almost all of them to use.
It's amazing, really, how the Red Sox depth chart, to borrow a phrase from football, has evolved from its Opening Day incarnation to the way it looks right now:
Late March
1. Josh Beckett
2. Jon Lester
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka
4. Tim Wakefield
5. Brad Penny
6. Justin Masterson (in the bullpen)
7. John Smoltz (rehabbing)
8. Clay Buchholz (in the minors)
9. Michael Bowden (in the minors)
10. Junichi Tazawa (in the minors)
Late August
1. Beckett (3.38 ERA)
2. Lester (3.58 ERA)
Not much has changed at the top of the rotation. Beckett and Lester each have double-digit wins and a couple of complete games to go along with a strikeout-to-walk ratio right around 3.5. Only nine pitchers in the American League have a strikeout-to-walk ratio of better than 3.0, and two of them are atop the Red Sox rotation.
(Roy Halladay, by the way, has 151 strikeouts and 23 walks -- a ratio of 6.57. Amazing.)
3. Buchholz (3.99 ERA)
One thing Buchholz does better than anyone on the Red Sox pitching staff is induce the ground ball. As a team, the Red Sox have a ground ball/fly ball ratio of 0.73; that is, they allow four fly balls for every three ground balls they induce. Both Beckett and Lester do better than most -- they have GB/FB ratios of 0.90 and 0.96, respectively -- but they both still allow more fly balls than ground balls.
Not Buchholz. The 25-year-old righty has a 1.30 GB/FB ratio in his seven starts this seasno, and he's getting outs via the ground ball at a rate of better than 2-to-1. (Double plays, of course, inflate that rate. Still, though, even ground-ball specialist Justin Masterson only had a rate of ground outs to air outs of 1.59.)
If the season ended today, Buchholz almost certainly would start Game 3 of the Red Sox's first-round playoff series.
4. Wakefield (4.31 ERA)
The All-Star knuckleballer surrendered just two hits and one run in 5 2/3 solid innings for Triple-A Pawtucket on Friday and reassured the Red Sox that he could field his position well enough to pitch in the major-league rotation. He had an ERA of 4.31 in 17 starts before he landed on the disabled list with a back injury and, later, with pain related to a sciatic problem in his calf.
"He can cover his position and he's a really good pitcher," Francona told reporters on Saturday, "so I think we're OK."
He gets the edge over the team's No. 5 starter because he, if healthy, almost certainly would pitch Game 4 of any first-round playoff series. His knuckleball might always be a wild card, but he's far more difficult to bring out of the bullpen because of it.
5. Tazawa (3.57 ERA)
The 23-year-old rookie erased the memory of Penny's disastrous start by tossing six shutout innings and, perhaps even more impressively, outpitching A.J. Burnett, the Yankees' No. 2 starter. Tazawa now has a 3.57 ERA in his four appearances in the major leagues and appears to be getting more and more comfortable with his role.
Barring injury, it appears he'll be the fifth starter in the Red Sox rotation the rest of the way.
One thing he did particularly well was attack the strike zone -- especially against the Yankees' lefties. Tazawa pitched mostly away from the lefties in the Detroit lineup in his first start two weeks ago, conceding the Green Monster in order not to give up solid contact on the inside half of the plate. That's a mark of a rookie pitcher, a pitcher who doesn't quite believe that his stuff is good enough on its own.
Against the Yankees, though, he pitched inside to lefties with both his fastball and his curveball, and he got results. Check out the two graphs. First is his strike-zone chart -- as viewed from behind the plate -- against Detroit on Aug. 11...
... followed by his strike-zone chart against the Yankees on Saturday:
He also disguised his curveball far better in terms of release point, not giving away his pitch simply with the location of his hand when he let go of the ball. (The idea is for each pitch to come out of the hand in the same spot, so if the purple data points are distinguishable from the other data points, that's a problem.)
The first chart, again, is that start against Detroit...
... and the second is Saturday against New York.
Tazawa has all the goods to be a terrific major-league pitcher. He's not exactly the ground-ball specialist Buchholz is -- he recorded 11 fly-ball outs on Saturday and just four ground-ball outs -- but he's making a case right now to be part of the Red Sox rotation from the get-go next season.
6. Matsuzaka (rehabbing)
The pitcher who finished third in Cy Young voting is expected to make a rehab start in the Gulf Coast League on Monday and begin to climb the minor-league ladder from there. He might be a maddening pitcher at times, but he did throw seven shutout innings in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series a year ago and was viewed as the team's clear-cut No. 3 starter before the season.
If Matsuzaka returns in time to show off his progress before the season ends, he might again be that No. 3 starter in the team's postseason rotation.
7. Paul Byrd (in the minors)
Desperate times call for desperate measures, and the struggles of Penny and Smoltz prompted the Red Sox to sign Byrd to a contract in hopes he could round himself into form in time for the stretch run. The veteran threw 74 pitches in four innings for the PawSox on Wednesday, surrendering three runs on six hits, and he'll likely pitch twice more in Pawtucket before rosters expand on Sept. 1.
8. Bowden (in the minors)
Don't make too much of Bowden's disastrous two innings against the Yankees. For one thing, he's been a starting pitcher all season and not only did he have to pitch in relief on Friday, he had to do so (a) after having warmed up once already only to sit back down; (b) with runners on first and third and no outs; and (c) against a lineup already feeling good about itself, as Francona would say.
If Wakefield gets hurt again and neither Matsuzaka nor Byrd pan out, Bowden likely would become the team's fifth starter in September.
9. Brad Penny (in limbo)
Here's the chart from Friday that tells the story:
Penny threw his fastball with good velocity (95 miles an hour) and even offset it with changeups, sliders and curveballs. But everything he threw was right down the middle of the plate. You can't win pitching like that.
Penny indicated earlier this season he has no desire to pitch out of the bullpen. He might not, however, have any say in the matter. His repertoire actually makes him a better fit as a reliever than as a starter, and he'd have a vested interest in performing well in mop-up duty as he heads back out on the open market this winter. (You can bet the Mets will be watching.)
With rosters due to expand a week from Tuesday, the Red Sox appear to have no reason to release Penny outright. If they can stash him away for seven or eight days, they can use him in mop-up duty out of the bullpen. If something goes terribly wrong in mid-September -- such as half the starting rotation catching swine flu -- he can make a spot start. Otherwise, though, he's all finished pitching meaningful innings in Boston.
N/A. Smoltz (DFA'ed) and Masterson (traded to Cleveland)
Both are gone. Neither is coming back.
Masterson, though, earned his first win as a member of the Cleveland Indians on Thursday night, tossing 6 1/3 strong innings to beat the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. He now has a 3.78 ERA since the Red Sox traded him to the Indians as part of the Victor Martinez deal on July 24.
But you have to give something to get something, right?
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Brad Penny's command slowly vanishing
Brad Penny has always been a first-half pitcher. All of his career numbers -- win-loss record, ERA, WHIP, etc. -- trend the wrong way after the All-Star break.
Even in 2007, his best season, he had a 2.39 ERA in the first half and a 3.84 ERA the rest of the way. He had an ERA of 1.95 in April and 2.15 in May but saw his ERA jump to 4.91 in July and 4.00 in August.
It should come as no surprise, then, that his numbers have started to go the wrong way this season. He had a 4.71 ERA at the All-Star break -- including a 3.18 ERA in five starts in June -- but hasn't kept it up since. He has a 6.62 ERA in his last six starts. He allowed four earned runs in 5 2/3 innings on Saturday in Texas, surrendering eight hits and four walks in a game the Red Sox never really had a chance to win.
(He and catcher Jason Varitek also allowed the Rangers to steal six bases, but that's a discussion for another time and place.)
Contrary to perception, Penny appears to be putting in the work to get him through the season. Anectodatally, no other Red Sox player so regularly runs the aisles of the Fenway Park grandstand. Penny sprints up the stairs and walks back down the stairs at least three times a week during homestands -- often right in the heat of the mid-afternoon.
(What's interesting to watch is the way Fenway Park tour groups respond: Penny is so anonymous in Boston that he occasionally runs right by a group intently listening to the history of the Green Monster without anyone noticing.)
The work appears to be paying off: His fastball velocity has held steady in the dog days of summer -- despite what you might think from looking at the raw numbers. The Fenway Park radar gun appeared to be juiced in late July, and Penny wasn't the only pitcher to see an extra boost in his miles-per-hour totals.
Consider the average velocity on his fastball in his three most recent starts at Fenway Park:
* July 24: 96.27
* July 29: 96.1
* Aug. 10: 93.45
Compare that to three Daniel Bard appearances around the same time:
* July 25: 99.55
* July 30: 99.69
* Aug. 11: 97.08
(Data compiled at BrooksBaseball.net)
Bard has seen his velocity drop at the same rate as Penny, and that means you probably can attribute the drop in Penny's velocity to a misleading radar gun more than to any sort of weakness in his shoulder.
His stuff is still potent.
You can't say the same for his command.
Going back to the incredible wealth of data at BrooksBaseball.net, let's take a look at some pitch charts from his best start of the season -- the six shutout innings he threw against the Yankees on June 11 -- and his last start in Texas.
(This chart graphs horizontal movement against speed. It's not a view of the strike zone in any way.)
June 11
Aug. 15
The key to these charts is to examine the way pitches are grouped together. The tighter the grouping of data points -- each data point, of course, represents a pitch -- the more consistency and the more command shown in the outing.
Against the Yankees in mid-June, Penny's fastball was tight and consistent and thrown with authority. Almost every fastball came in at the same speed and with the same type of movement, making it an easy thing for Varitek to set a target and for Penny to hit it.
Against the Rangers on Saturday, his fastball was all over the place. Having to deal with base-stealers doesn't help, but when there's a variance of 10 or 12 inches in the movement of a fastball, well, that means a pitcher isn't commanding the way he should.
Two more charts -- this time a look at the strike zone from the catcher's point of view:
June 11
Aug. 15
Ignore the green dots. We've already covered Penny's lack of command on his fastball. The focus here is on the pink dots -- as well as, in the second chart, the orange dots. Those are Penny's breaking balls. He didn't throw a slider at all against the Yankees but has started to work the pitch into his repetoire more and more since mid-July.
(Come to think of it, that might be part of the issue. Against the Rangers, he threw 20 sliders and just three curveballs -- a baffling development considering how often he was throwing his curveball while he was having so much success in June.)
Either way, it's not about velocity with breaking pitches as much as it is about location. Penny missed with a few curveballs against the Yankees in mid-June but mostly kept them either in the lower half of the strike zone or in the dirt. Against Texas, though, Penny left both sliders and curveballs in the top half of the zone -- exactly the wrong place to leave them against a quality lineup.
(The pitch Ian Kinsler hit out in the second inning? A slider up.)
Penny isn't commanding his fastball, and he isn't commanding his breaking pitches, either. With so little margin for error, he and John Farrell are going to have to find an answer pretty fast.
Even in 2007, his best season, he had a 2.39 ERA in the first half and a 3.84 ERA the rest of the way. He had an ERA of 1.95 in April and 2.15 in May but saw his ERA jump to 4.91 in July and 4.00 in August.
It should come as no surprise, then, that his numbers have started to go the wrong way this season. He had a 4.71 ERA at the All-Star break -- including a 3.18 ERA in five starts in June -- but hasn't kept it up since. He has a 6.62 ERA in his last six starts. He allowed four earned runs in 5 2/3 innings on Saturday in Texas, surrendering eight hits and four walks in a game the Red Sox never really had a chance to win.
(He and catcher Jason Varitek also allowed the Rangers to steal six bases, but that's a discussion for another time and place.)
Contrary to perception, Penny appears to be putting in the work to get him through the season. Anectodatally, no other Red Sox player so regularly runs the aisles of the Fenway Park grandstand. Penny sprints up the stairs and walks back down the stairs at least three times a week during homestands -- often right in the heat of the mid-afternoon.
(What's interesting to watch is the way Fenway Park tour groups respond: Penny is so anonymous in Boston that he occasionally runs right by a group intently listening to the history of the Green Monster without anyone noticing.)
The work appears to be paying off: His fastball velocity has held steady in the dog days of summer -- despite what you might think from looking at the raw numbers. The Fenway Park radar gun appeared to be juiced in late July, and Penny wasn't the only pitcher to see an extra boost in his miles-per-hour totals.
Consider the average velocity on his fastball in his three most recent starts at Fenway Park:
* July 24: 96.27
* July 29: 96.1
* Aug. 10: 93.45
Compare that to three Daniel Bard appearances around the same time:
* July 25: 99.55
* July 30: 99.69
* Aug. 11: 97.08
(Data compiled at BrooksBaseball.net)
Bard has seen his velocity drop at the same rate as Penny, and that means you probably can attribute the drop in Penny's velocity to a misleading radar gun more than to any sort of weakness in his shoulder.
His stuff is still potent.
You can't say the same for his command.
Going back to the incredible wealth of data at BrooksBaseball.net, let's take a look at some pitch charts from his best start of the season -- the six shutout innings he threw against the Yankees on June 11 -- and his last start in Texas.
(This chart graphs horizontal movement against speed. It's not a view of the strike zone in any way.)
June 11
Aug. 15
The key to these charts is to examine the way pitches are grouped together. The tighter the grouping of data points -- each data point, of course, represents a pitch -- the more consistency and the more command shown in the outing.
Against the Yankees in mid-June, Penny's fastball was tight and consistent and thrown with authority. Almost every fastball came in at the same speed and with the same type of movement, making it an easy thing for Varitek to set a target and for Penny to hit it.
Against the Rangers on Saturday, his fastball was all over the place. Having to deal with base-stealers doesn't help, but when there's a variance of 10 or 12 inches in the movement of a fastball, well, that means a pitcher isn't commanding the way he should.
Two more charts -- this time a look at the strike zone from the catcher's point of view:
June 11
Aug. 15
Ignore the green dots. We've already covered Penny's lack of command on his fastball. The focus here is on the pink dots -- as well as, in the second chart, the orange dots. Those are Penny's breaking balls. He didn't throw a slider at all against the Yankees but has started to work the pitch into his repetoire more and more since mid-July.
(Come to think of it, that might be part of the issue. Against the Rangers, he threw 20 sliders and just three curveballs -- a baffling development considering how often he was throwing his curveball while he was having so much success in June.)
Either way, it's not about velocity with breaking pitches as much as it is about location. Penny missed with a few curveballs against the Yankees in mid-June but mostly kept them either in the lower half of the strike zone or in the dirt. Against Texas, though, Penny left both sliders and curveballs in the top half of the zone -- exactly the wrong place to leave them against a quality lineup.
(The pitch Ian Kinsler hit out in the second inning? A slider up.)
Penny isn't commanding his fastball, and he isn't commanding his breaking pitches, either. With so little margin for error, he and John Farrell are going to have to find an answer pretty fast.
Sunday, June 28, 2009
Red Sox pitchers tend to see long at-bats, too
You already know that the Red Sox boast a pitch-grinding lineup, that four Red Sox players rank among the American League leaders in pitches per plate appearance.
But it's not just the hitters.
As a team, Red Sox pitchers throw more pitches per plate appeance (3.93) than any other American League team. Individually, here's a cross-section of the American League leaderboard:
1. Erik Bedard, Seattle: 4.10
2. Jon Lester: 4.04
3. Justin Verlander, Detroit: 4.03
4. Matt Garza, Tampa Bay: 4.00
5. Josh Outman, Oakland: 4.00
8. Brad Penny: 3.95
14. Josh Beckett: 3.91
23. Justin Masterson: 3.85
59. Tim Wakefield: 3.47
Obviously, while better hitters tend to see more pitches, the opposite does not hold true for pitchers. Strikeout pitchers, after all, are going to throw more pitches per plate appearance than contact pitchers.
And, not surprisingly, the Red Sox average more pitches per start (100) than any other American League team and have seen their starters throw more than 100 pitches more times (42) than any other American League team, too.
But it's not just the hitters.
As a team, Red Sox pitchers throw more pitches per plate appeance (3.93) than any other American League team. Individually, here's a cross-section of the American League leaderboard:
1. Erik Bedard, Seattle: 4.10
2. Jon Lester: 4.04
3. Justin Verlander, Detroit: 4.03
4. Matt Garza, Tampa Bay: 4.00
5. Josh Outman, Oakland: 4.00
8. Brad Penny: 3.95
14. Josh Beckett: 3.91
23. Justin Masterson: 3.85
59. Tim Wakefield: 3.47
Obviously, while better hitters tend to see more pitches, the opposite does not hold true for pitchers. Strikeout pitchers, after all, are going to throw more pitches per plate appearance than contact pitchers.
And, not surprisingly, the Red Sox average more pitches per start (100) than any other American League team and have seen their starters throw more than 100 pitches more times (42) than any other American League team, too.
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
How the Red Sox rotation shakes out
Terry Francona and John Smoltz both made the announcement that Smoltz will make his first Red Sox start on June 25, a week from Thursday, against the woeful Washington Nationals.
Daisuke Matsuzaka, who was hammered today in a Boston Herald column Francona did not enjoy -- "I feel bad for the players sometimes," he said. "I didn't realize what the players were going through publicly, and I feel bad about that." -- will not be bumped from the rotation. Instead, he'll be pushed back a day. So, too, will the rest of the Red Sox starting staff -- and the Red Sox will indeed employ a six-man starting rotation until the All-Star Game.
(That means the first big-league stint of rookie Daniel Bard is likely to come to an end on June 24, the day before Smoltz is activated. Bard can easily be dispatched back to Pawtucket, and he and Clay Buchholz can resume carving up Triple-A hitters together.)
Here's how the Red Sox rotation would shake out in the 10 days or so after Smoltz makes his Red Sox debut:
* June 25 at Washington: Smoltz (seven days' rest)
* June 26 at Atlanta: Matsuzaka (six days' rest)
* June 27 at Atlanta: Josh Beckett (six days' rest)
* June 28 at Atlanta: Tim Wakefield (six days' rest)
* June 29 at Baltimore: Brad Penny (five days' rest)
* June 30 at Baltimore: Jon Lester (five days' rest)
* July 1 at Baltimore: Smoltz (five days' rest)
* July 3 vs. Seattle: Matsuzaka (six days' rest)
* July 4 vs. Seattle: Beckett (six days' rest)
* July 5 vs. Seattle: Wakefield (six days' rest)
* July 6 vs. Oakland: Penny (six days' rest)
* July 7 vs. Oakland: Lester (six days' rest)
* July 8 vs. Oakland: Smoltz (six days' rest)
It's a gamble. There's no question about it. Pitching on five or six days' rest is an adjustment for players accustomed to pitching on four days' rest; Wakefield and Smoltz both have better career numbers on four days' rest than five.
On top of that, removing Bard from the bullpen would increase the strain on the remaining relievers -- and Hideki Okajima and Ramon Ramirez already are among the American League leaders in appearances.
But if the Red Sox can get to the All-Star Game without having lost a starter or burned out their bullpen, they'll be in a position of tremendous strength as they decide what do to with their glut of quality starting pitching.
Daisuke Matsuzaka, who was hammered today in a Boston Herald column Francona did not enjoy -- "I feel bad for the players sometimes," he said. "I didn't realize what the players were going through publicly, and I feel bad about that." -- will not be bumped from the rotation. Instead, he'll be pushed back a day. So, too, will the rest of the Red Sox starting staff -- and the Red Sox will indeed employ a six-man starting rotation until the All-Star Game.
(That means the first big-league stint of rookie Daniel Bard is likely to come to an end on June 24, the day before Smoltz is activated. Bard can easily be dispatched back to Pawtucket, and he and Clay Buchholz can resume carving up Triple-A hitters together.)
Here's how the Red Sox rotation would shake out in the 10 days or so after Smoltz makes his Red Sox debut:
* June 25 at Washington: Smoltz (seven days' rest)
* June 26 at Atlanta: Matsuzaka (six days' rest)
* June 27 at Atlanta: Josh Beckett (six days' rest)
* June 28 at Atlanta: Tim Wakefield (six days' rest)
* June 29 at Baltimore: Brad Penny (five days' rest)
* June 30 at Baltimore: Jon Lester (five days' rest)
* July 1 at Baltimore: Smoltz (five days' rest)
* July 3 vs. Seattle: Matsuzaka (six days' rest)
* July 4 vs. Seattle: Beckett (six days' rest)
* July 5 vs. Seattle: Wakefield (six days' rest)
* July 6 vs. Oakland: Penny (six days' rest)
* July 7 vs. Oakland: Lester (six days' rest)
* July 8 vs. Oakland: Smoltz (six days' rest)
It's a gamble. There's no question about it. Pitching on five or six days' rest is an adjustment for players accustomed to pitching on four days' rest; Wakefield and Smoltz both have better career numbers on four days' rest than five.
On top of that, removing Bard from the bullpen would increase the strain on the remaining relievers -- and Hideki Okajima and Ramon Ramirez already are among the American League leaders in appearances.
But if the Red Sox can get to the All-Star Game without having lost a starter or burned out their bullpen, they'll be in a position of tremendous strength as they decide what do to with their glut of quality starting pitching.
Saturday, June 13, 2009
Penny's fastball: A fluke, or a sign of things to come?
The question the Red Sox have to ask themselves, as they ponder the idea of trading Brad Penny to make room for John Smoltz, has nothing to do with the way Penny has performed so far this season -- and everything to do with the way he'll perform the rest of the season.
And here's the big question: If he's going to pitch the rest of the season the way he pitched on Thursday against the Yankees, would it be insane to trade him?
Well, yes, it probably would be. No matter what you can get from John Smoltz, it's not going to be much better than what Penny did on Thursday -- six shutout innings, five strikeouts, a 98-mile-an-hour fastball. The only line drive he allowed was the one Johnny Damon hit right at Kevin Youkilis in the first inning. It was the second time in four starts he'd allowed just one line drive.
It's the fastball, though, that piques the imagination. Penny has the veteran smarts to know what to do with a 98-mile-an-hour fastball, and if he can keep his velocity up there, he's going to be a valuable pitcher down the stretch.
The question is: Can he? Check out this chart, a measure of Penny's average velocity per start. (For some reason, we're having trouble uploading the chart into the blog itself, so it's probably easier to open the link in a new window.)
And here's the big question: If he's going to pitch the rest of the season the way he pitched on Thursday against the Yankees, would it be insane to trade him?
Well, yes, it probably would be. No matter what you can get from John Smoltz, it's not going to be much better than what Penny did on Thursday -- six shutout innings, five strikeouts, a 98-mile-an-hour fastball. The only line drive he allowed was the one Johnny Damon hit right at Kevin Youkilis in the first inning. It was the second time in four starts he'd allowed just one line drive.
It's the fastball, though, that piques the imagination. Penny has the veteran smarts to know what to do with a 98-mile-an-hour fastball, and if he can keep his velocity up there, he's going to be a valuable pitcher down the stretch.
The question is: Can he? Check out this chart, a measure of Penny's average velocity per start. (For some reason, we're having trouble uploading the chart into the blog itself, so it's probably easier to open the link in a new window.)
Thursday marked the first time Penny had finished a game with an average velocity over 95 since he won his 16th game in 2004, a five-inning outing against Arizona in which he likewise only allowed one line drive.
Since then, though, he's had to fight through shoulder issues that cost him most of last season and quite a bit of money on the free-agent market. He's shown glimpses of his old self this season, but Thursday was the first time he'd really let it fly.
The graph, though, does look a little ominous. His velocity had been fairly consistent all season before he ramped it up on Thursday -- and one has to wonder if the adrenaline of the Yankees as well as the understanding he was on the verge of being traded put a little extra on his fastball.
If that's the case -- and the graph certainly makes Thursday look like an outlier -- it might be worth trading him on Monday, the first day he can be traded without his consent, while his value is at its highest.
Friday, June 12, 2009
Penny on relieving: "I don't want to do that"
Brad Penny isn't dumb. He's well aware of what's swirling around the Red Sox pitching staff these days, what with John Smoltz's rehab ending and Clay Buchholz's knocking growing louder and louder. He's pitching as well now as he has all season -- he hit 98 on the radar gun more than once on Thursday -- but he still has no control over his fate.
Terry Francona emphatically declined to speculate Thursday afternoon about how the Red Sox would handle their sudden glut of pitchers. There are several theories out there -- including a thought that the Red Sox could use Penny as a long reliever out of the bullpen, mostly as an insurance policy against an injury or chronic ineffectiveness.
The question was raised to Penny after his 117-pitch gem on Thursday night against the Yankees: How would the bullpen sound?
"I don't want to do that," he said.
He then asked a question that has no good answer: "Where are you going to go in this bullpen?"
(The only option, really, would be to send fireballing rookie Daniel Bard back to Triple-A, a place where he has pretty much nothing left to prove.)
Still, though, something has to give. Smoltz will make his final rehab start on Friday -- and you don't have a guy coming off shoulder surgery throw 90 or 95 pitches in his tuneups only to have him pitch out of the bullpen. But since there's no open spot in the starting rotation, Penny appears to be the odd man out. Josh Beckett and Jon Lester aren't going anywhere, Daisuke Matsuzaka is under contract for big money until 2012, and Tim Wakefield has been the team's most reliable starting pitcher all season.
"It's a good problem to have, I guess," Penny said.
***
It was easy to raise an eyebrow when Penny drilled Alex Rodriguez in the first inning. He threw a hard fastball inside on his first pitch to Rodriguez and then drilled him in the back of the shoulder with his third pitch.
Jason Bay, after all, has been hit twice by Yankee pitchers this season. Rodriguez seems to be a comparable target -- and that's the way the unwritten code tends to be applied.
Penny professed innocence, however.
"I was going hard in," he said. "He's a Hall of Fame hitter, so you've got to throw him in."
Said Francona, "That's not a situation where we're trying to put runners on base. We're trying to get outs."
Terry Francona emphatically declined to speculate Thursday afternoon about how the Red Sox would handle their sudden glut of pitchers. There are several theories out there -- including a thought that the Red Sox could use Penny as a long reliever out of the bullpen, mostly as an insurance policy against an injury or chronic ineffectiveness.
The question was raised to Penny after his 117-pitch gem on Thursday night against the Yankees: How would the bullpen sound?
"I don't want to do that," he said.
He then asked a question that has no good answer: "Where are you going to go in this bullpen?"
(The only option, really, would be to send fireballing rookie Daniel Bard back to Triple-A, a place where he has pretty much nothing left to prove.)
Still, though, something has to give. Smoltz will make his final rehab start on Friday -- and you don't have a guy coming off shoulder surgery throw 90 or 95 pitches in his tuneups only to have him pitch out of the bullpen. But since there's no open spot in the starting rotation, Penny appears to be the odd man out. Josh Beckett and Jon Lester aren't going anywhere, Daisuke Matsuzaka is under contract for big money until 2012, and Tim Wakefield has been the team's most reliable starting pitcher all season.
"It's a good problem to have, I guess," Penny said.
***
It was easy to raise an eyebrow when Penny drilled Alex Rodriguez in the first inning. He threw a hard fastball inside on his first pitch to Rodriguez and then drilled him in the back of the shoulder with his third pitch.
Jason Bay, after all, has been hit twice by Yankee pitchers this season. Rodriguez seems to be a comparable target -- and that's the way the unwritten code tends to be applied.
Penny professed innocence, however.
"I was going hard in," he said. "He's a Hall of Fame hitter, so you've got to throw him in."
Said Francona, "That's not a situation where we're trying to put runners on base. We're trying to get outs."
Thursday, June 11, 2009
Smoltz rained out, Penny shines
Brad Penny didn't even give the crowd a chance to give him a farewell standing ovation. After he froze Hideki Matsui with a beautiful full-count changeup -- he'd thrown nothing but fastballs and curveballs through the first seven pitches of the at-bat -- he pumped his fist and sprinted off the mound.
He'd thrown 117 pitches. His night -- and, in all likelihood, his brief career with the Red Sox -- was over. His final line: Six innings, six hits, no runs, one walk, five strikeouts, and a no-decision thanks to the three runs the Yankees hung on Manny Delcarmen in the seventh.
(Weird quirk: Entering Thursday, the Red Sox had lost every start this season in which Penny had thrown 96 or more pitches, but they were 6-1 when Penny threw 96 pitches or fewer. That streak came awfully close to ending before the Red Sox lineup exploded in the bottom of the eighth inning.)
The only way that Penny could still be in a Red Sox uniform next Tuesday or Wednesday, in all likelihood, is if John Smoltz suffers a setback in his final rehab start with Triple-A Pawtucket. If he comes through healthy, though, he's likely to get the ball at some point next week against the Florida Marlins.
Penny and the Red Sox will have to wait one more day to find out how Smoltz fares in that start. The PawSox were supposed to play a doubleheader in Syracuse but were rained out. Smoltz instead will pitch the front end of a doubleheader on Friday.
He'd thrown 117 pitches. His night -- and, in all likelihood, his brief career with the Red Sox -- was over. His final line: Six innings, six hits, no runs, one walk, five strikeouts, and a no-decision thanks to the three runs the Yankees hung on Manny Delcarmen in the seventh.
(Weird quirk: Entering Thursday, the Red Sox had lost every start this season in which Penny had thrown 96 or more pitches, but they were 6-1 when Penny threw 96 pitches or fewer. That streak came awfully close to ending before the Red Sox lineup exploded in the bottom of the eighth inning.)
The only way that Penny could still be in a Red Sox uniform next Tuesday or Wednesday, in all likelihood, is if John Smoltz suffers a setback in his final rehab start with Triple-A Pawtucket. If he comes through healthy, though, he's likely to get the ball at some point next week against the Florida Marlins.
Penny and the Red Sox will have to wait one more day to find out how Smoltz fares in that start. The PawSox were supposed to play a doubleheader in Syracuse but were rained out. Smoltz instead will pitch the front end of a doubleheader on Friday.
Thursday likely Brad Penny's swan song
Hey, look at that: John Smoltz will make his last rehab start on the same day Brad Penny pitches. Both guys then will be lined up to pitch next Tuesday. That's a fun coincidence, isn't it?
Oh, wait. That's right.
You have to hope Penny gets a hefty standing ovation when he comes off the mound at Fenway Park on Thursday night. Unless something strange happens, it'll likely be the last time you see him pitch for the Red Sox -- and while he's easily the most expendable guy in the rotation, he did just as much as Tim Wakefield to keep the Red Sox afloat during the first two months of the season.
Remember these starts?
* April 11 at Los Angeles (5-4 win): 6 IP, 5 H, 3 ER
* April 22 vs. Minnesota (7-3 win): 6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER
* May 8 vs. Tampa Bay (7-3 win): 6 1/3 IP, 8 H, 3 ER
* May 14 at Los Angeles (5-4 loss): 6 1/3 IP, 7 H, 4 ER
* May 20 vs. Toronto (8-3 win): 6 2/3 IP, 9 H, 2 ER
All those starts came during a time when Josh Beckett was struggling, Jon Lester was struggling, and Daisuke Matsuzaka was either on the shelf or struggling. Penny gave the Red Sox everything they could have asked for -- including the flexibility to leave Clay Buchholz in the minor leagues to rebuild his confidence -- and after today, he'll likely land them a prospect or two in a trade, too.
Terry Francona, of course, declined to tip his hand about the future of Smoltz and the future of the rotation when asked by reporters on Wednesday.
"We've certainly had conversations, and Theo (Epstein) has been involved in all of those," Francona said. "We'll figure it out. These things have a way of getting worked out."
But barring a last-minute injury somewhere -- someone tripping as they're climbing the dugout stairs, maybe -- there's no way to fit Smoltz into the rotation other than trading Penny.
Penny can't be traded without his permission before June 15, but it's hard to imagine him refusing a trade on June 12 that could just as easily be made on June 15. He's not stupid. He's well aware of what's been swirling around him. The Red Sox likely will trade him to a National League contender -- the Mets, maybe, or the Phillies or the Brewers -- and he'll jump right into another starting rotation and keep doing what he's doing. He'll have a better chance to pitch in the playoffs with another team than he would with the Red Sox.
Either way, tonight almost certainly will be his last start with the Red Sox. One can only hope he gets the standing ovation he deserves. If the Red Sox win a World Series this season, after all, Penny will get his second ring -- and he'll have earned it.
Oh, wait. That's right.
You have to hope Penny gets a hefty standing ovation when he comes off the mound at Fenway Park on Thursday night. Unless something strange happens, it'll likely be the last time you see him pitch for the Red Sox -- and while he's easily the most expendable guy in the rotation, he did just as much as Tim Wakefield to keep the Red Sox afloat during the first two months of the season.
Remember these starts?
* April 11 at Los Angeles (5-4 win): 6 IP, 5 H, 3 ER
* April 22 vs. Minnesota (7-3 win): 6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER
* May 8 vs. Tampa Bay (7-3 win): 6 1/3 IP, 8 H, 3 ER
* May 14 at Los Angeles (5-4 loss): 6 1/3 IP, 7 H, 4 ER
* May 20 vs. Toronto (8-3 win): 6 2/3 IP, 9 H, 2 ER
All those starts came during a time when Josh Beckett was struggling, Jon Lester was struggling, and Daisuke Matsuzaka was either on the shelf or struggling. Penny gave the Red Sox everything they could have asked for -- including the flexibility to leave Clay Buchholz in the minor leagues to rebuild his confidence -- and after today, he'll likely land them a prospect or two in a trade, too.
Terry Francona, of course, declined to tip his hand about the future of Smoltz and the future of the rotation when asked by reporters on Wednesday.
"We've certainly had conversations, and Theo (Epstein) has been involved in all of those," Francona said. "We'll figure it out. These things have a way of getting worked out."
But barring a last-minute injury somewhere -- someone tripping as they're climbing the dugout stairs, maybe -- there's no way to fit Smoltz into the rotation other than trading Penny.
Penny can't be traded without his permission before June 15, but it's hard to imagine him refusing a trade on June 12 that could just as easily be made on June 15. He's not stupid. He's well aware of what's been swirling around him. The Red Sox likely will trade him to a National League contender -- the Mets, maybe, or the Phillies or the Brewers -- and he'll jump right into another starting rotation and keep doing what he's doing. He'll have a better chance to pitch in the playoffs with another team than he would with the Red Sox.
Either way, tonight almost certainly will be his last start with the Red Sox. One can only hope he gets the standing ovation he deserves. If the Red Sox win a World Series this season, after all, Penny will get his second ring -- and he'll have earned it.
Friday, June 5, 2009
Tough start for upbeat Penny
David Ortiz has a Post-It note stuck to the top corner of his locker with, if the label is to be believed, the cell phone number for Pokey Reese. You have to wonder if Brad Penny has the urge to sneak over and dial that number before his next start.
Penny had induced seven ground balls and just two fly balls through four innings on Friday. Not surprisingly, those were four of his most efficient innings of the season.
"His first four innings were as good as we've seen," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said. "He was throwing the ball really, really well."
Said Penny, "My curveball was pretty good, and my fastball had a lot of life to it. I could tell warming up that I had a lot of power. I felt pretty good."
But he allowed an infield single between third base and shortstop to get things going in the fifth inning and a sharp single to right field to put runners at first and second with one out. Two batters later, Elvis Andrus hit a sharp ground ball under the hurdling Marlon Byrd and somehow through the glove of Julio Lugo into left field to score the first run of the game.
One reporter asked Penny if he was frustrated with Lugo for not fielding that particular ground ball. Penny, though, heaped the blame on himself, pointing out that he'd allowed an 0-2 count to turn into a 3-2 count and thus forced himself to groove a pitch to Andrus.
"No, no, no -- that had nothing to do with Julio," he said. "That was me. I left the ball up to a guy I think I should get out."
And that's when things started to get away.
"I sped the game up instead of slowing it down," he said. "I got ahead of myself and started thinking about not one pitch at a time, but the second or third pitch I was going to throw."
He missed twice to Ian Kinsler and came back with a fastball directed toward the outer half of the plate. Instead, it tailed back over the middle of the plate -- and Kinsler hammered it over the Green Monster for a three-run home run.
An inning later, Penny walked the first hitter on four pitches and saw Nelson Cruz hit a pitch on the screws -- though straight at Jason Bay in left field. When he struck out David Murphy, he was an out away from getting out of the inning unscathed.
But that's when he snapped off a curveball that Marlon Byrd grounded up the middle -- right past the outstretched glove of an almost stationary Lugo.
Six pitches later, Chris Davis hit the ground-rule double that knocked Penny from the game.
(Reliever Daniel Bard then got out of the inning when his second pitch, a 97-mile-an-hour fastball, flew to the backstop but ricocheted straight back to Jason Varitek, whose relay beat Marlon Byrd to the plate. "That's a designed play," Varitek said solemnly after the game, touching his finger to the tip of his nose to demonstrate a signal.)
Penny finished the game having allowed five earned runs in 5 2/3 innings; his ERA climbed back from 5.63 to 5.85. On paper, it wasn't the type of outing prospective suitors would have liked to see.
But save that pitch to Kinsler and despite a couple of ground balls that could have been handled, it wasn't all that bad of an effort.
"When he's good, he can throw the ball downhill with some pretty good momentum," Francona said. "That's what I think we're starting to see more and more of."
Penny had induced seven ground balls and just two fly balls through four innings on Friday. Not surprisingly, those were four of his most efficient innings of the season.
"His first four innings were as good as we've seen," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said. "He was throwing the ball really, really well."
Said Penny, "My curveball was pretty good, and my fastball had a lot of life to it. I could tell warming up that I had a lot of power. I felt pretty good."
But he allowed an infield single between third base and shortstop to get things going in the fifth inning and a sharp single to right field to put runners at first and second with one out. Two batters later, Elvis Andrus hit a sharp ground ball under the hurdling Marlon Byrd and somehow through the glove of Julio Lugo into left field to score the first run of the game.
One reporter asked Penny if he was frustrated with Lugo for not fielding that particular ground ball. Penny, though, heaped the blame on himself, pointing out that he'd allowed an 0-2 count to turn into a 3-2 count and thus forced himself to groove a pitch to Andrus.
"No, no, no -- that had nothing to do with Julio," he said. "That was me. I left the ball up to a guy I think I should get out."
And that's when things started to get away.
"I sped the game up instead of slowing it down," he said. "I got ahead of myself and started thinking about not one pitch at a time, but the second or third pitch I was going to throw."
He missed twice to Ian Kinsler and came back with a fastball directed toward the outer half of the plate. Instead, it tailed back over the middle of the plate -- and Kinsler hammered it over the Green Monster for a three-run home run.
An inning later, Penny walked the first hitter on four pitches and saw Nelson Cruz hit a pitch on the screws -- though straight at Jason Bay in left field. When he struck out David Murphy, he was an out away from getting out of the inning unscathed.
But that's when he snapped off a curveball that Marlon Byrd grounded up the middle -- right past the outstretched glove of an almost stationary Lugo.
Six pitches later, Chris Davis hit the ground-rule double that knocked Penny from the game.
(Reliever Daniel Bard then got out of the inning when his second pitch, a 97-mile-an-hour fastball, flew to the backstop but ricocheted straight back to Jason Varitek, whose relay beat Marlon Byrd to the plate. "That's a designed play," Varitek said solemnly after the game, touching his finger to the tip of his nose to demonstrate a signal.)
Penny finished the game having allowed five earned runs in 5 2/3 innings; his ERA climbed back from 5.63 to 5.85. On paper, it wasn't the type of outing prospective suitors would have liked to see.
But save that pitch to Kinsler and despite a couple of ground balls that could have been handled, it wasn't all that bad of an effort.
"When he's good, he can throw the ball downhill with some pretty good momentum," Francona said. "That's what I think we're starting to see more and more of."
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
The market for Brad Penny
Brad Penny and Tom Glavine might soon have something in common. Glavine was cast aside Wednesday so the Braves could promote heralded young starter Tommy Hanson. Penny might soon be traded to make room for heralded young starter Clay Buchholz -- or, at the other end of the spectrum, 43-year-old certain Hall of Famer John Smoltz.
The two would be linked in another way, too: The Braves' release of Glavine could have an impact on the trade market for Penny.
Penny has demonstrated that he's healthy enough to be a capable starter -- his ERA in May was 4.17 to go along with a 28-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. But Glavine threw six scoreless innings in his last rehab start and has seen his velocity climb from 76-78 miles an hour in spring training to 83-86 miles an hour in recent weeks. He had a 5.54 ERA in 13 starts a year ago before succumbing to shoulder and elbow injuries. He never was a power pitcher, and his guts and guile might still make him a worthwhile pickup for a contending team.
The big factor in Glavine's favor, too, is that no one has to give up anything in trade to acquire him.
Penny still might be more appealing because he's proven he's all the way back from his shoulder surgery and can pitch in the major leagues. He had two disastrous outings in April but has a 4.07 ERA in his other eight starts this season; he's pitched into the seventh inning three times in his last five starts and hasn't walked anyone in his last 15 2/3 innings on the mound.
But Glavine still is Glavine, and if you don't have to give up a prospect, he might be worth a flier. Some of the same teams that might be thinking about Penny might all of a sudden be thinking about Glavine, too. Some of those potential suitors:
Philadelphia: Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton both have ERAs in the vicinity of 6.00, and Brett Myers is likely to undergo season-ending hip surgery.
* Glavine or Penny? Penny. The Phillies have a deep stable of prospects and can afford to move someone for more of a sure thing. Moyer and ace Cole Hamels both are lefties, so it's not as though landing a lefty like Glavine is a top priority.
New York: Oliver Perez was a disaster from Opening Day until he was dispatched to the minor leagues to find himself. Tim Redding (9.20 ERA in three starts) isn't the answer, either.
* Glavine or Penny? Glavine. The lefty pitched for the Mets for five seasons before returning to the Braves a year ago, and while he failed to get out of the first inning in the start that capped the Mets' collapse in 2007, there's something to be said for a 3.97 ERA over five seasons.
Milwaukee: Lefty Manny Parra allowed 10 earned runs in four innings in his last start; he allowed eight earned runs in 3 1/3 innings two starts before that. Journeyman Jeff Suppan, on the other hand, allowed five earned runs in 3 2/3 innings against the Cardinals on May 26 and has a 5.09 ERA for the season.
* Glavine or Penny? Glavine. If Parra gets bumped from the rotation, the Brewers wouldn't have a lefty -- and that's where Glavine fits in. The Brewers do have a handful of catching prospects in their system to deal, but it's hard to imagine the Red Sox getting a catcher in exchange for Penny who's any better than George Kottaras.
St. Louis: Beyond ace Adam Wainwright, on pace for his third straight season with a sub-4.00 ERA as a starter, the Cardinals have zero sure things in their rotation. Joel Piniero isn't going to have a 3.86 ERA all season. Chris Carpenter is an injury risk. Kyle Lohse is Kyle Lohse.
* Glavine or Penny? Penny. The Cardinals don't have a ton of depth in their farm system from which to deal and don't have a lefty on their staff. But Penny appears to be the safer bet from a health standpoint, and the Cardinals can't afford to be burned too many more times.
Cincinnati: The five-man rotation appears set, but Bronson Arroyo has a 5.37 ERA and Micah Owings isn't much better at 5.10. Still, though, the Reds were just 2 1/2 games back entering play on Wednesday.
* Glavine or Penny? Glavine. The Reds weren't supposed to contend this year, and it doesn't make sense to give up any kind of valuable prospect for Penny only to finish third or fourth. It might be worth taking a flier on Glavine, though, just in case his experience can help in a pennant race.
Los Angeles: The Dodgers are running away with the National League West, but their starting pitchers have given them just 22 quality starts this season -- third-worst in the National League. Beyond Chad Billingsley (2.80 ERA), Randy Wolf (3.21 ERA) and youngster Clayton Kershaw (4.43 ERA), there's not much there. Even Jeff Weaver and Eric Milton have made three starts apiece for the Dodgers this season.
* Glavine or Penny? Glavine. Wolf and Kershaw both are lefties, but it's not going to be easy for Penny to go back to Los Angeles having said this last spring: "There were a few people I didn’t get along with on the coaching staff that don’t respect people. I mean, me and Joe (Torre) got along fine. I just feel like nobody had my back there. You’re in the clubhouse and you have players coming up to you saying coaches are saying this to them about you. And that’s just not a good situation to be in. ... I'm so glad to be out of there."
Toronto: The fading Blue Jays have seen their pitching fall apart over the last two weeks -- as a team, their ERA is 5.98 since May 20. Ricky Romero, for example, had a 1.71 ERA through three starts but strained an oblique in April and has been shelled twice since his return.
* Glavine or Penny? Glavine. It's simple. Unless the Blue Jays blow the Red Sox away with their offer, Penny isn't going to a division rival. But wouldn't it be intriguing to see Glavine give the American League a shot?
The two would be linked in another way, too: The Braves' release of Glavine could have an impact on the trade market for Penny.
Penny has demonstrated that he's healthy enough to be a capable starter -- his ERA in May was 4.17 to go along with a 28-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. But Glavine threw six scoreless innings in his last rehab start and has seen his velocity climb from 76-78 miles an hour in spring training to 83-86 miles an hour in recent weeks. He had a 5.54 ERA in 13 starts a year ago before succumbing to shoulder and elbow injuries. He never was a power pitcher, and his guts and guile might still make him a worthwhile pickup for a contending team.
The big factor in Glavine's favor, too, is that no one has to give up anything in trade to acquire him.
Penny still might be more appealing because he's proven he's all the way back from his shoulder surgery and can pitch in the major leagues. He had two disastrous outings in April but has a 4.07 ERA in his other eight starts this season; he's pitched into the seventh inning three times in his last five starts and hasn't walked anyone in his last 15 2/3 innings on the mound.
But Glavine still is Glavine, and if you don't have to give up a prospect, he might be worth a flier. Some of the same teams that might be thinking about Penny might all of a sudden be thinking about Glavine, too. Some of those potential suitors:
Philadelphia: Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton both have ERAs in the vicinity of 6.00, and Brett Myers is likely to undergo season-ending hip surgery.
* Glavine or Penny? Penny. The Phillies have a deep stable of prospects and can afford to move someone for more of a sure thing. Moyer and ace Cole Hamels both are lefties, so it's not as though landing a lefty like Glavine is a top priority.
New York: Oliver Perez was a disaster from Opening Day until he was dispatched to the minor leagues to find himself. Tim Redding (9.20 ERA in three starts) isn't the answer, either.
* Glavine or Penny? Glavine. The lefty pitched for the Mets for five seasons before returning to the Braves a year ago, and while he failed to get out of the first inning in the start that capped the Mets' collapse in 2007, there's something to be said for a 3.97 ERA over five seasons.
Milwaukee: Lefty Manny Parra allowed 10 earned runs in four innings in his last start; he allowed eight earned runs in 3 1/3 innings two starts before that. Journeyman Jeff Suppan, on the other hand, allowed five earned runs in 3 2/3 innings against the Cardinals on May 26 and has a 5.09 ERA for the season.
* Glavine or Penny? Glavine. If Parra gets bumped from the rotation, the Brewers wouldn't have a lefty -- and that's where Glavine fits in. The Brewers do have a handful of catching prospects in their system to deal, but it's hard to imagine the Red Sox getting a catcher in exchange for Penny who's any better than George Kottaras.
St. Louis: Beyond ace Adam Wainwright, on pace for his third straight season with a sub-4.00 ERA as a starter, the Cardinals have zero sure things in their rotation. Joel Piniero isn't going to have a 3.86 ERA all season. Chris Carpenter is an injury risk. Kyle Lohse is Kyle Lohse.
* Glavine or Penny? Penny. The Cardinals don't have a ton of depth in their farm system from which to deal and don't have a lefty on their staff. But Penny appears to be the safer bet from a health standpoint, and the Cardinals can't afford to be burned too many more times.
Cincinnati: The five-man rotation appears set, but Bronson Arroyo has a 5.37 ERA and Micah Owings isn't much better at 5.10. Still, though, the Reds were just 2 1/2 games back entering play on Wednesday.
* Glavine or Penny? Glavine. The Reds weren't supposed to contend this year, and it doesn't make sense to give up any kind of valuable prospect for Penny only to finish third or fourth. It might be worth taking a flier on Glavine, though, just in case his experience can help in a pennant race.
Los Angeles: The Dodgers are running away with the National League West, but their starting pitchers have given them just 22 quality starts this season -- third-worst in the National League. Beyond Chad Billingsley (2.80 ERA), Randy Wolf (3.21 ERA) and youngster Clayton Kershaw (4.43 ERA), there's not much there. Even Jeff Weaver and Eric Milton have made three starts apiece for the Dodgers this season.
* Glavine or Penny? Glavine. Wolf and Kershaw both are lefties, but it's not going to be easy for Penny to go back to Los Angeles having said this last spring: "There were a few people I didn’t get along with on the coaching staff that don’t respect people. I mean, me and Joe (Torre) got along fine. I just feel like nobody had my back there. You’re in the clubhouse and you have players coming up to you saying coaches are saying this to them about you. And that’s just not a good situation to be in. ... I'm so glad to be out of there."
Toronto: The fading Blue Jays have seen their pitching fall apart over the last two weeks -- as a team, their ERA is 5.98 since May 20. Ricky Romero, for example, had a 1.71 ERA through three starts but strained an oblique in April and has been shelled twice since his return.
* Glavine or Penny? Glavine. It's simple. Unless the Blue Jays blow the Red Sox away with their offer, Penny isn't going to a division rival. But wouldn't it be intriguing to see Glavine give the American League a shot?
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Trading Brad Penny
ESPN's Buster Olney brought up an interesting point in his Monday chat:
Q: I'm really hoping the Mets can poach a starter during the season. Who would be the most likely candidates -- Peavy, Lee?
A: Brad Penny might be a perfect guy, Dave -- the Red Sox might soon be willing to deal him, he'll be relatively inexpensive, and pitching in the NL, he'll be effective. He might not be a Cy Young caliber pitcher right now, but he's decent and might cost the Mets a Grade B prospect or two.
The Mets' rotation features Johan Santana and little else; Oliver Perez recently was placed on the disabled list and will pitch out of the bullpen upon his return, and Livan Hernandez is a year older and a year more ineffective than he was when he was released by the Minnesota Twins last summer. Mike Pelfrey may yet be useful, but his ERA is 5.46 and he has twice as many walks as strikeouts; John Maine's 4.54 ERA is good for second-best on the staff.
Penny, meanwhile, has a 6.90 ERA so far this season but quality starts in four of his six starts. On top of that, unlike Pelfrey and Perez, he actually has more strikeouts than walks so far this season. He hasn't been sensational, but he's been serviceable -- and the Mets, who can't afford to miss the playoffs for a third straight year, would be more than willing to trade a prospect or two for someone serviceable.
If that type of trade goes through -- it wouldn't happen until mid-June, probably -- the low-risk signing of Penny would look even better than it did in the offseason. Consider the laundry list of benefits the Red Sox would reap from the $2 or $3 million they'd end up having spent (assuming the Mets make the trade without money changing hands):
* Penny would have made at least four quality starts -- and while he's due for a hiccup or two, there's no reason to expect that he can't put together a couple more quality starts in May and June;
* Penny would have given John Smoltz a chance to work his way back slowly with no urgency and no real timetable;
* Penny would have given Clay Buchholz a chance to regain his confidence without the pressure of having to pitch against the Yankees and Rays;
* Penny would have yielded a midlevel prospect -- a bullpen arm like Eddie Kunz, if they're lucky, or a young starting pitcher like Scott Moviel -- at a time when young pitchers are like currency. The more young arms you can stockpile, after all, the less money you'll have to spend on pitchers on the free-agent market. ("The price of bullpen arms has kind of gone crazy," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said over the weekend.)
That's a pretty good return on that investment.
The Red Sox will hang onto Penny for as long as they can -- to give Smoltz a chance to get through the roadblock he just hit in his rehab and to give Buchholz a chance to refine everything he still has to refine.
But if either Smoltz or Buchholz is banging on the door by the middle of June, well, all Theo Epstein has to do is call Omar Minaya and cash in his chips.
Q: I'm really hoping the Mets can poach a starter during the season. Who would be the most likely candidates -- Peavy, Lee?
A: Brad Penny might be a perfect guy, Dave -- the Red Sox might soon be willing to deal him, he'll be relatively inexpensive, and pitching in the NL, he'll be effective. He might not be a Cy Young caliber pitcher right now, but he's decent and might cost the Mets a Grade B prospect or two.
The Mets' rotation features Johan Santana and little else; Oliver Perez recently was placed on the disabled list and will pitch out of the bullpen upon his return, and Livan Hernandez is a year older and a year more ineffective than he was when he was released by the Minnesota Twins last summer. Mike Pelfrey may yet be useful, but his ERA is 5.46 and he has twice as many walks as strikeouts; John Maine's 4.54 ERA is good for second-best on the staff.
Penny, meanwhile, has a 6.90 ERA so far this season but quality starts in four of his six starts. On top of that, unlike Pelfrey and Perez, he actually has more strikeouts than walks so far this season. He hasn't been sensational, but he's been serviceable -- and the Mets, who can't afford to miss the playoffs for a third straight year, would be more than willing to trade a prospect or two for someone serviceable.
If that type of trade goes through -- it wouldn't happen until mid-June, probably -- the low-risk signing of Penny would look even better than it did in the offseason. Consider the laundry list of benefits the Red Sox would reap from the $2 or $3 million they'd end up having spent (assuming the Mets make the trade without money changing hands):
* Penny would have made at least four quality starts -- and while he's due for a hiccup or two, there's no reason to expect that he can't put together a couple more quality starts in May and June;
* Penny would have given John Smoltz a chance to work his way back slowly with no urgency and no real timetable;
* Penny would have given Clay Buchholz a chance to regain his confidence without the pressure of having to pitch against the Yankees and Rays;
* Penny would have yielded a midlevel prospect -- a bullpen arm like Eddie Kunz, if they're lucky, or a young starting pitcher like Scott Moviel -- at a time when young pitchers are like currency. The more young arms you can stockpile, after all, the less money you'll have to spend on pitchers on the free-agent market. ("The price of bullpen arms has kind of gone crazy," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said over the weekend.)
That's a pretty good return on that investment.
The Red Sox will hang onto Penny for as long as they can -- to give Smoltz a chance to get through the roadblock he just hit in his rehab and to give Buchholz a chance to refine everything he still has to refine.
But if either Smoltz or Buchholz is banging on the door by the middle of June, well, all Theo Epstein has to do is call Omar Minaya and cash in his chips.
Friday, May 8, 2009
Slowing down Carl Crawford
The last time the Red Sox faced the Rays, Brad Penny was on the mound and Carl Crawford stole an American League-record six bases in one game.
Tonight, at Fenway Park, Brad Penny is on the mound and Carl Crawford is poised to do the same thing all over again if he gets the opportunity.
A reporter asked Terry Francona today how he plans to defend against Crawford running wild. The Red Sox manager's strategy was simple:
1. Keep Crawford off base.
2. That's it. Keep Crawford off base.
"Penny's times to the plate were as good as he's going to get without really screwing up his pitching," Francona said. "It's like Jacoby (Ellsbury) -- how many times have we seen this year when they've pitched out with Jacoby and didn't throw him out? That's part of why they have success. The best way we can stop that is not letting him get on base because sometimes he's too fast.
"There was a game in Tampa -- it wasn't the game where he stole the bunch of bases -- but we actually held him on at second, and he stole third flat-footed. If you can't stop him then, you'vej ust got to keep him off base."
The last time the Red Sox played the Rays, after all, Crawford reached base five times en route to his six stolen bases. It's tough for him to run wild, though, if he's not getting on base.
"If we can get the first out of an inning, that really sometimes slows them down," Francona said.
Well, let's not go that far. Here's a look at Crawford's stolen bases last Sunday:
First inning
B.J. Upton led off with a groundout, and Crawford followed with a one-out walk. He then stole second on the first pitch.
Third inning
Upton led off with a strikeout. Crawford followed with a one-out single but waited until there were two outs -- Evan Longoria flew to center field -- to steal second base.
Fifth inning
Crawford led off with a single to right field and stole second on the first pitch to Longoria. Longoria then struck out and Carlos Pena popped to third. Crawford stole third on the first pitch Penny threw to Pat Burrell with two outs.
Seventh inning
Upton led off with a pop fly to second base. Crawford hit a one-out single and stole second base during Longoria's at-bat.
Eighth inning
There already were two outs when Crawford beat out an infield single to shortstop. He then stole second base during Longoria's at-bat.
The lesson learned here is that you can't slow down Crawford at all, right. No outs, one out, two outs -- it's all the same. All the Red Sox can do is keep the guy off the basepaths.
Tonight, at Fenway Park, Brad Penny is on the mound and Carl Crawford is poised to do the same thing all over again if he gets the opportunity.
A reporter asked Terry Francona today how he plans to defend against Crawford running wild. The Red Sox manager's strategy was simple:
1. Keep Crawford off base.
2. That's it. Keep Crawford off base.
"Penny's times to the plate were as good as he's going to get without really screwing up his pitching," Francona said. "It's like Jacoby (Ellsbury) -- how many times have we seen this year when they've pitched out with Jacoby and didn't throw him out? That's part of why they have success. The best way we can stop that is not letting him get on base because sometimes he's too fast.
"There was a game in Tampa -- it wasn't the game where he stole the bunch of bases -- but we actually held him on at second, and he stole third flat-footed. If you can't stop him then, you'vej ust got to keep him off base."
The last time the Red Sox played the Rays, after all, Crawford reached base five times en route to his six stolen bases. It's tough for him to run wild, though, if he's not getting on base.
"If we can get the first out of an inning, that really sometimes slows them down," Francona said.
Well, let's not go that far. Here's a look at Crawford's stolen bases last Sunday:
First inning
B.J. Upton led off with a groundout, and Crawford followed with a one-out walk. He then stole second on the first pitch.
Third inning
Upton led off with a strikeout. Crawford followed with a one-out single but waited until there were two outs -- Evan Longoria flew to center field -- to steal second base.
Fifth inning
Crawford led off with a single to right field and stole second on the first pitch to Longoria. Longoria then struck out and Carlos Pena popped to third. Crawford stole third on the first pitch Penny threw to Pat Burrell with two outs.
Seventh inning
Upton led off with a pop fly to second base. Crawford hit a one-out single and stole second base during Longoria's at-bat.
Eighth inning
There already were two outs when Crawford beat out an infield single to shortstop. He then stole second base during Longoria's at-bat.
The lesson learned here is that you can't slow down Crawford at all, right. No outs, one out, two outs -- it's all the same. All the Red Sox can do is keep the guy off the basepaths.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
How many more starts does Brad Penny have?
Brad Penny was a disaster again on Tuesday night, lasting just 2 2/3 innings and allowing seven runs (four earned) on seven hits and three walks. He's now had two quality starts and two disastrous starts; he allowed eight runs in three innings against Baltimore on April 17. His ERA stands at 8.66 on the season; he's walked 11 and struck out five in 17 2/3 innings.
The Red Sox, as they demonstrated during their 11-game winning streak, are a World Series-caliber team. The Red Sox also, however, play in the most competitive division in baseball -- and missing the playoffs by one game gets you just as far as missing the playoffs by 10 games. Penny can only pitch so poorly before the Red Sox will have no choice but to yank him from the rotation.
He's not going anywhere in the immediate future. There isn't really anyone to take his place. But there are threats on the immediate horizon -- and there are approximate dates on which the Red Sox will have to make decisions:
May 15
Daisuke Matsuzaka threw a bullpen start today and will throw another bullpen session on Saturday with an eye on a trip to the minor leagues for a couple of rehab starts after that. If he goes to Triple-A Pawtucket and starts on May 6 (a week from today) and May 11, he ought to be ready to be activated from the disabled list sometime around May 15.
In theory, when Matsuzaka returns to the starting rotation, the Red Sox will send Justin Masterson back to the bullpen.
But Masterson has a 1.69 ERA to go along with seven strikeouts and three walks in his two starts. He hasn't gotten out of the sixth inning in either start -- but Penny hasn't exactly pitched deep into games, either. He's failed to get out of the fourth inning twice and hasn't thrown a pitch in the seventh inning yet this season.
There's no guarantee he's going to have to give up his spot when Matsuzaka returns.
May 31
The target date for John Smoltz to return has been Memorial Day all along; he threw batting practice in Fort Myers last weekend and will do so again on Thursday or Friday.
At a certain point, he's going to start pitching in games and working his way toward the Red Sox rotation -- and he's got a track record Penny could only dream about.
Penny has had an ERA of 4.00 or higher five times in his career; he had a 4.33 ERA with the Dodgers three years ago. A year ago, when he pitched through injuries, he had a 6.27 ERA in 94 2/3 innings.
Smoltz, on the other hand, has had an ERA of 4.00 or higher, too -- in 1994. Since then, though, his ERA has been below 4.00 -- below 3.50, even -- every season. He did stumble upon his return from Tommy John surgery in May of 2001, compiling a 5.76 ERA in his first five starts before being turned into a closer. That's a red flag. But he had double-digit wins and a sub-3.50 ERA in three seasons as a starter from 2005-07. If it all possible, the Red Sox want to give him a shot.
July 1
Clay Buchholz has a 2.45 ERA in his first three starts at Triple-A Pawtucket. That comes on the heels of a spring training in which he had a 2.52 ERA and 19 strikeouts in his six starts; he allowed just one earned run in his first 19 2/3 innings before a rough final start of the spring.
Had he pitched well a year ago, he'd be the Red Sox's fifth starter right now. Still, though, the Red Sox aren't going let him pitch in Triple-A for too long. If he keeps showing that he's too good for Triple-A, he's going to have to come up eventually -- either to contribute to the big-league team or to be showcased for potential suitors.
If the Red Sox have any intention of trading Buchholz this summer -- say, for Miguel Cabrera of the Detroit Tigers -- they're probably going to have to get him a couple of big-league starts in July so other teams can see what he can do.
The Red Sox, as they demonstrated during their 11-game winning streak, are a World Series-caliber team. The Red Sox also, however, play in the most competitive division in baseball -- and missing the playoffs by one game gets you just as far as missing the playoffs by 10 games. Penny can only pitch so poorly before the Red Sox will have no choice but to yank him from the rotation.
He's not going anywhere in the immediate future. There isn't really anyone to take his place. But there are threats on the immediate horizon -- and there are approximate dates on which the Red Sox will have to make decisions:
May 15
Daisuke Matsuzaka threw a bullpen start today and will throw another bullpen session on Saturday with an eye on a trip to the minor leagues for a couple of rehab starts after that. If he goes to Triple-A Pawtucket and starts on May 6 (a week from today) and May 11, he ought to be ready to be activated from the disabled list sometime around May 15.
In theory, when Matsuzaka returns to the starting rotation, the Red Sox will send Justin Masterson back to the bullpen.
But Masterson has a 1.69 ERA to go along with seven strikeouts and three walks in his two starts. He hasn't gotten out of the sixth inning in either start -- but Penny hasn't exactly pitched deep into games, either. He's failed to get out of the fourth inning twice and hasn't thrown a pitch in the seventh inning yet this season.
There's no guarantee he's going to have to give up his spot when Matsuzaka returns.
May 31
The target date for John Smoltz to return has been Memorial Day all along; he threw batting practice in Fort Myers last weekend and will do so again on Thursday or Friday.
At a certain point, he's going to start pitching in games and working his way toward the Red Sox rotation -- and he's got a track record Penny could only dream about.
Penny has had an ERA of 4.00 or higher five times in his career; he had a 4.33 ERA with the Dodgers three years ago. A year ago, when he pitched through injuries, he had a 6.27 ERA in 94 2/3 innings.
Smoltz, on the other hand, has had an ERA of 4.00 or higher, too -- in 1994. Since then, though, his ERA has been below 4.00 -- below 3.50, even -- every season. He did stumble upon his return from Tommy John surgery in May of 2001, compiling a 5.76 ERA in his first five starts before being turned into a closer. That's a red flag. But he had double-digit wins and a sub-3.50 ERA in three seasons as a starter from 2005-07. If it all possible, the Red Sox want to give him a shot.
July 1
Clay Buchholz has a 2.45 ERA in his first three starts at Triple-A Pawtucket. That comes on the heels of a spring training in which he had a 2.52 ERA and 19 strikeouts in his six starts; he allowed just one earned run in his first 19 2/3 innings before a rough final start of the spring.
Had he pitched well a year ago, he'd be the Red Sox's fifth starter right now. Still, though, the Red Sox aren't going let him pitch in Triple-A for too long. If he keeps showing that he's too good for Triple-A, he's going to have to come up eventually -- either to contribute to the big-league team or to be showcased for potential suitors.
If the Red Sox have any intention of trading Buchholz this summer -- say, for Miguel Cabrera of the Detroit Tigers -- they're probably going to have to get him a couple of big-league starts in July so other teams can see what he can do.
Saturday, April 18, 2009
Penny: "I felt unbelievable"
If you expected Brad Penny to be upset after getting shelled for seven runs in the second inning on Friday, well, be prepared for a bit of a surprise.
"I felt great," he said. "I haven't had that kind of stuff in a while."
Say what now?
OK, sure, Penny hit 96 on the radar gun and showed off a sharp breaking ball. Even the grand slam Nick Markakis hit came on a curveball the right fielder almost had to dig out of the dirt.
"It was a good pitch," he said. "He went down and got it. I watched the video: I think he was sitting on it. Usually, with a curveball, they're going to put their front foot down first, but he was waiting back on it. He hit a great pitch."
But, still, seven runs is seven runs, right?
"Stuff-wise, I felt great," he said. "My breaking ball was good. I didn't get to throw too many splits because I was 2-1 and 3-1 on everyone, but I had a great curveball -- and my fastball, I felt great with it today. ...
"Tonight, my velocity was consistent. Everything felt great. I felt unbelievable tonight."
Penny even turned his five walks into an encouraging sign.
"The walks killed me tonight," he said. "That's uncharacteristic for me. I don't usually walk a lot of people, so I got that one out of the way, I guess."
(Fact-check: Penny has averaged fewer than three walks per nine innings in five of his 10 big-league seasons. For comparison, Josh Beckett has averaged more than three walks per nine innings in six of his nine big-league seasons.)
And he certainly wasn't going to forget the ultimate positive: The Red Sox rallied from the early deficit to win the game. No other Red Sox pitcher has seen the team win both of the games he's started.
"Tonight, those guys coming back like that, that's a first for me," he said. "Other teams I've played on, down 7-0 in the second, it's over. You feel a lot better about an outing like that when your team comes back and wins the game."
"I felt great," he said. "I haven't had that kind of stuff in a while."
Say what now?
OK, sure, Penny hit 96 on the radar gun and showed off a sharp breaking ball. Even the grand slam Nick Markakis hit came on a curveball the right fielder almost had to dig out of the dirt.
"It was a good pitch," he said. "He went down and got it. I watched the video: I think he was sitting on it. Usually, with a curveball, they're going to put their front foot down first, but he was waiting back on it. He hit a great pitch."
But, still, seven runs is seven runs, right?
"Stuff-wise, I felt great," he said. "My breaking ball was good. I didn't get to throw too many splits because I was 2-1 and 3-1 on everyone, but I had a great curveball -- and my fastball, I felt great with it today. ...
"Tonight, my velocity was consistent. Everything felt great. I felt unbelievable tonight."
Penny even turned his five walks into an encouraging sign.
"The walks killed me tonight," he said. "That's uncharacteristic for me. I don't usually walk a lot of people, so I got that one out of the way, I guess."
(Fact-check: Penny has averaged fewer than three walks per nine innings in five of his 10 big-league seasons. For comparison, Josh Beckett has averaged more than three walks per nine innings in six of his nine big-league seasons.)
And he certainly wasn't going to forget the ultimate positive: The Red Sox rallied from the early deficit to win the game. No other Red Sox pitcher has seen the team win both of the games he's started.
"Tonight, those guys coming back like that, that's a first for me," he said. "Other teams I've played on, down 7-0 in the second, it's over. You feel a lot better about an outing like that when your team comes back and wins the game."
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
Looking at the schedule for the opening month
Terry Francona said this morning that there's no hurry to have Brad Penny ready for Opening Day, that if the veteran needs an extra week or so to get ready, the Red Sox can get by without him.
When one reporter asked if that was because he could pitch Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden or Justin Masterson, Francona said, "Or nobody. We open up with an off-day, we play, we have an off-day, and then I don’t know how many we play in a row. There’s some wiggle room, as there always is at the beginning of the year. ... You can look at the schedule and dissect it."
Why, thanks, Tito. Don't mind if I do. Here's one look at the way the Red Sox rotation might look when the season begins:
April 6: Josh Beckett
April 7: Day off
April 8: Jon Lester
April 9: Daisuke Matsuzaka
April 10: Tim Wakefield
April 11: Beckett (four days' rest)
April 12: Here's where you start to run into trouble. If Penny isn't ready, you can't just skip that spot in the rotation. Lester would be pitching on three days' rest, and you have to believe the Red Sox are going to be extra careful with a guy who pitched 237 innings last season, more than 70 innings beyond his previous career high. If Penny can go, he'll go. If he can't, you have to believe this -- or the April 11 start, with Beckett going on April 12 -- would be a spot for Buchholz.
April 13: Lester (four days' rest)
April 14: Matsuzaka (four days' rest)
April 15: Wakefield (four days' rest)
April 16: Day off. This is where you can skip your fifth starter.
April 17: Beckett (either four or five days' rest)
April 18: Lester (four days' rest)
April 19: Matsuzaka (four days' rest)
April 20: Wakefield (four days' rest)
April 21: You can't bring back Beckett again on four days' rest, so you'll need a fifth starter again. This might be where Francona is talking about Penny being ready -- if they don't need Penny for April 16, they might skip him on April 12 and target him for April 21 against Minnesota at Fenway Park.
When one reporter asked if that was because he could pitch Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden or Justin Masterson, Francona said, "Or nobody. We open up with an off-day, we play, we have an off-day, and then I don’t know how many we play in a row. There’s some wiggle room, as there always is at the beginning of the year. ... You can look at the schedule and dissect it."
Why, thanks, Tito. Don't mind if I do. Here's one look at the way the Red Sox rotation might look when the season begins:
April 6: Josh Beckett
April 7: Day off
April 8: Jon Lester
April 9: Daisuke Matsuzaka
April 10: Tim Wakefield
April 11: Beckett (four days' rest)
April 12: Here's where you start to run into trouble. If Penny isn't ready, you can't just skip that spot in the rotation. Lester would be pitching on three days' rest, and you have to believe the Red Sox are going to be extra careful with a guy who pitched 237 innings last season, more than 70 innings beyond his previous career high. If Penny can go, he'll go. If he can't, you have to believe this -- or the April 11 start, with Beckett going on April 12 -- would be a spot for Buchholz.
April 13: Lester (four days' rest)
April 14: Matsuzaka (four days' rest)
April 15: Wakefield (four days' rest)
April 16: Day off. This is where you can skip your fifth starter.
April 17: Beckett (either four or five days' rest)
April 18: Lester (four days' rest)
April 19: Matsuzaka (four days' rest)
April 20: Wakefield (four days' rest)
April 21: You can't bring back Beckett again on four days' rest, so you'll need a fifth starter again. This might be where Francona is talking about Penny being ready -- if they don't need Penny for April 16, they might skip him on April 12 and target him for April 21 against Minnesota at Fenway Park.
Penny scratched from Thursday start
Pitcher Brad Penny won't make his first scheduled appearance of the spring on Thursday thanks to a setback suffered in a batting-practice session on Sunday. Penny, manager Terry Francona and pitching coach John Farrell all said Penny couldn't get loose after 25 pitches and was shut down from there.
Francona told reporters before Tuesday's game that Penny would be pushed back in order to get more strengthening work in on his shoulder.
"When a guy gets to the mound in a game, from that point forward, the shoulder strengthening part is pretty much, you're not going to get stronger," Francona said. "That's just the way it goes. We've said all along that we really want to strengthen that shoulder. ... We talked to Brad and said, 'OK, look, this is a long year. We think maybe we can make some more strides by keeping you on flat ground and in the bullpen for just the forseeable future, not a long time, and getting a little bit more strength.'"
Francona, though, didn't want to call it a setback or even a precaution.
"We want him to be able to go out there when it's time to go and let it fly," he said. "There really aren't red flags. I guess I need to make that point. He's done a hell of a job from where he started when we got him. They keep testing him, and he's getting stronger and stronger and stronger. We just feel like we can make this even better. ...
"He could pitch Thursday. I just don't know that it's in everybody's long-term best interests."
When Francona was asked if it was realistic to expect Penny to start the season, though, he hesitated.
"Our thought was, coming out, to have him go a little bit behind everybody else anyway," he said. "I don't know, and I'm not sure I have a whole lot of concern about that anyways. With all the off-days you have at the beginning of the season, what we're really trying to do is get him healthy so he can go out and pitch like he can pitch. For me to sit here and go, 'I've like to get him for that third game' would be a little bit of the wrong message to send."
(That's not really true. With a day off scheduled right after Opening Day, the Red Sox wouldn't need a fifth starter the first time through the rotation. Still, though, after a day off on April 7, the Red Sox play eight straight games without a day off. If ace Josh Beckett made his second start on April 11, they'd need either Penny or someone else to pitch on April 12 to avoid forcing Jon Lester pitch on three days' rest. And if Penny is ready, he easily could pitch on April 11 and give Beckett five days' rest to keep everything in order. It's not the third game that a fifth starter becomes necessary, but it's still the fifth or sixth game.)
Penny met with reporters early Tuesday morning, before Francona's morning session, and he said at that point that he didn't know yet if he'd still make his first start of the spring on Thursday against Puerto Rico. All he knew was that Sunday's session hadn't gone the way he wanted.
"I don't think the shoulder strength was quite where it needed to be yet, so the workload I was doing, ... it was better to take it easy right now than to get out there the first week of April and have it flare up on me," he said. "We're staying on a shoulder program, still going to play catch. I'm just trying to get my shoulder strength where it needs to be."
Penny, the National League's All-Star starter in 2006, became available on the cheap this offseason thanks to the shoulder injury that ruined his 2008 season. He made just two starts after June 14, but even before that, he was 5-9 with a 5.88 ERA.
He said he felt OK -- Francona called it a "blah" side -- and that he probably could have pitched had there been any actual need for him to pitch. But with a full month still left in this super-sized spring training, there was an opportunity for him to take a step back and do some extra strength work.
"This is a good year to have the extra time, I guess," he said. "I'm just going to keep working, doing the shoulder program, and I'm pretty sure I'll get there."
Clay Buchholz will get the start on Thursday; the righthander originally was going to piggy-back on Penny's start and pitch the third and fourth innings. Prospect Michael Bowden likely will get to pick up an extra inning or two.
Francona told reporters before Tuesday's game that Penny would be pushed back in order to get more strengthening work in on his shoulder.
"When a guy gets to the mound in a game, from that point forward, the shoulder strengthening part is pretty much, you're not going to get stronger," Francona said. "That's just the way it goes. We've said all along that we really want to strengthen that shoulder. ... We talked to Brad and said, 'OK, look, this is a long year. We think maybe we can make some more strides by keeping you on flat ground and in the bullpen for just the forseeable future, not a long time, and getting a little bit more strength.'"
Francona, though, didn't want to call it a setback or even a precaution.
"We want him to be able to go out there when it's time to go and let it fly," he said. "There really aren't red flags. I guess I need to make that point. He's done a hell of a job from where he started when we got him. They keep testing him, and he's getting stronger and stronger and stronger. We just feel like we can make this even better. ...
"He could pitch Thursday. I just don't know that it's in everybody's long-term best interests."
When Francona was asked if it was realistic to expect Penny to start the season, though, he hesitated.
"Our thought was, coming out, to have him go a little bit behind everybody else anyway," he said. "I don't know, and I'm not sure I have a whole lot of concern about that anyways. With all the off-days you have at the beginning of the season, what we're really trying to do is get him healthy so he can go out and pitch like he can pitch. For me to sit here and go, 'I've like to get him for that third game' would be a little bit of the wrong message to send."
(That's not really true. With a day off scheduled right after Opening Day, the Red Sox wouldn't need a fifth starter the first time through the rotation. Still, though, after a day off on April 7, the Red Sox play eight straight games without a day off. If ace Josh Beckett made his second start on April 11, they'd need either Penny or someone else to pitch on April 12 to avoid forcing Jon Lester pitch on three days' rest. And if Penny is ready, he easily could pitch on April 11 and give Beckett five days' rest to keep everything in order. It's not the third game that a fifth starter becomes necessary, but it's still the fifth or sixth game.)
Penny met with reporters early Tuesday morning, before Francona's morning session, and he said at that point that he didn't know yet if he'd still make his first start of the spring on Thursday against Puerto Rico. All he knew was that Sunday's session hadn't gone the way he wanted.
"I don't think the shoulder strength was quite where it needed to be yet, so the workload I was doing, ... it was better to take it easy right now than to get out there the first week of April and have it flare up on me," he said. "We're staying on a shoulder program, still going to play catch. I'm just trying to get my shoulder strength where it needs to be."
Penny, the National League's All-Star starter in 2006, became available on the cheap this offseason thanks to the shoulder injury that ruined his 2008 season. He made just two starts after June 14, but even before that, he was 5-9 with a 5.88 ERA.
He said he felt OK -- Francona called it a "blah" side -- and that he probably could have pitched had there been any actual need for him to pitch. But with a full month still left in this super-sized spring training, there was an opportunity for him to take a step back and do some extra strength work.
"This is a good year to have the extra time, I guess," he said. "I'm just going to keep working, doing the shoulder program, and I'm pretty sure I'll get there."
Clay Buchholz will get the start on Thursday; the righthander originally was going to piggy-back on Penny's start and pitch the third and fourth innings. Prospect Michael Bowden likely will get to pick up an extra inning or two.
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
Countdown to spring training: Starting pitching
Truck Day is Friday. Pitchers and catchers report on Feb. 13. Spring training games start Feb. 25. The American League champion Rays come to Fenway Park on April 6.
It might be snowing outside -- at least, it's snowing here at One If By Land headquarters on the South Shore. But it's almost time for baseball to begin! With that in mind, we'll examine a few storylines at each position on the field for the Red Sox -- starting with, well, the starters.
The Red Sox enter the season with perhaps the best 1-2-3 punch in the American League and plenty of depth -- though no one beyond those first three starters can be classified as anything close to a sure thing.
Locks
Josh Beckett (will turn 29 years old in May)
2008: 12-10, 4.03 ERA, 172 K, 34 BB
2007: 20-7, 3.27 ERA, 194 K, 40 BB
2006: 16-11, 5.01 ERA, 158 K, 74 BB
An oblique injury caused him problems in the postseason, where he previously had made himself a reputation as one of the best the game has ever seen. (Despite allowing 14 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings last postseason, he still has a 2.90 ERA in his 13 postseason appearances.) There's no reason he can't win 17 or 18 games and turn in a sub-3.50 ERA and regain his rightful place as the ace of the staff.
Jon Lester (just turned 25 years old)
2008: 16-6, 3.21 ERA, 152 K, 66 BB
2007: 4-0, 4.57 ERA, 50 K, 31 BB; season interrupted by lymphoma
2006: 7-2, 4.76 ERA, 60 K, 43 BB
The cancer is long gone. The only issue now, in fact, might be the wear and tear on his shoulder from his first 200-inning season. He threw 106 innings in 2003, 91 innings in 2004, 148 1/3 innings in 2005, 128 1/3 innings in 2006, 153 innings in 2007 and then 210 1/3 in 2008. That's a big jump. Terry Francona raved last fall about the weight he's added to his body, and that's certainly going to help his endurance. But the Red Sox will have to be wary if he's on a 200-inning pace midway through this season -- even if he's once again pitching like a Cy Young Award candidate.
Daisuke Matsuzaka (turned 28 years old last September)
2008: 18-3, 2.90 ERA, 154 K, 94 BB
2007: 15-12, 4.40 ERA, 201 K, 80 BB
The notorious nibbler walked a league-worst 94 batters a year ago and averaged an even 100 pitchers per start even though he lasted approximately 5 2/3 innings per start. That was a problem. But just about everything else went well -- opponents hit .211 off him for the season, he allowed just 12 home runs, and he allowed either zero earned runs or one earned run in 12 of his 29 starts. And if he can figure out how to throw strikes more consistently -- he walked four or more hitters in 11 of his 29 starts -- he might get the Cy Young consideration that his numbers say he deserved last season.
In the mix
Clay Buchholz (will turn 25 in August)
2008 (majors): 2-9, 6.75 ERA, 72 K, 41 BB
2008 (minors): 5-2, 2.30 ERA, 61 K, 18 BB
2007 (majors): 3-1, 1.59 ERA, 22 K, 10 BB
2007 (minors): 8-5, 2.44 ERA, 171 K, 35 BB
Here's one thing people haven't discussed much about Buchholz -- he seemed to run into some extraordinary bad luck during his big-league stint last season. A pitcher can only control so much on his own. There isn't a whole lot of luck involved in walks or strikeouts -- that depends on the pitcher's skill. There isn't a whole lot of luck involved in home runs, either. If a hitter crushes one, that's usually because the pitcher made a bad pitch. But almost everything else is out of the pitcher's hands. If the pitcher has runners on first and third with one out, a ground ball could either end the inning or keep everything rolling depending on whether it's hit right at the third baseman or in the hole between third base and shortstop.
The stat BAPIP -- batting average on balls put in play -- can be an indicator of a pitcher who's seeing a lot of ground balls find those holes or fly balls drop between outfielders. A pitcher with a high BAPIP often can expect to see his numbers improve the next season as his luck returns to a more normal level.
Here are the BAPIP numbers for the top five Red Sox starters last season:
Wakefield: .240
Matsuzaka: .260
Lester: .300
Beckett: .318
Buchholz: .355
Brad Penny (will turn 31 in May)
2008: 6-9, 6.27 ERA, 51 K, 48 BB
2007: 16-4, 3.03 ERA, 136 K, 73 BB
2006: 16-9, 4.33 ERA, 148 K, 54 BB
Injuries cost Penny a good chunk of his season a year ago -- he missed half of June, all of July, half of August and most of September. And when he did pitch, the results weren't good. He gave up 10 runs in 4 2/3 innings in a loss to the Mets in May, and he gave up seven runs a in 3 2/3 innings in a loss to the Tigers in June. If those injuries remain a factor, he won't spend much time on the Fenway Park mound. But if those injuries are behind him, the Red Sox might have themselves the steal of the free-agent season.
Consider the following comparison:
Player A (249 games) : 94-75, 4.06 ERA, 1,032 K, 475 BB
Player B (220 games) 86-67, 4.02 ERA, 1,132 K, 524 BB
Player A is the career of Brad Penny. Player B is the first nine seasons of the career of Jason Schmidt -- who then went 18-7 with a 3.20 ERA and 251 strikeouts in his 10th season.
Curt Schilling (just turned 42)
Just kidding.
John Smoltz (will turn 42 in May)
2008: 3-2, 2.57 ERA, 36 K, 8 BB
2007: 14-8, 3.11 ERA, 197 K, 47 BB
2006: 16-9, 3.49 ERA, 211 K, 55 BB
Shoulder surgery ended last season for Smoltz after just six starts. Some wondered if he'd join former Braves rotation-mate Greg Maddux in retirement -- and on the Hall of Fame ballot for 2014. But he signed an incentive-laden contract with the Red Sox this winter with an eye on the second half of the season as well as the playoffs, where no pitcher in history has more wins than his 15.
He's certainly getting up there in age. But he still hasn't had an ERA over 4.00 in 15 years, and he's averaged fewer than eight strikeouts per nine innings just once since 2000. As long as he gets his shoulder healthy -- and the Red Sox will give him all the time he needs to do that -- he can be a factor down the stretch. The fascinating question will be whether he'll bump someone from the rotation or whether the Red Sox might try the unorthodox approach of employing six starting pitchers in August and September.
Consider this:
Beckett: Oblique injury torched his postseason.
Lester: Set a new career high in innings pitched last season -- by a wide margin.
Matsuzaka: Was used to five or six days of rest between starts in Japan.
Buchholz: Has never thrown more than 150 innings in his career.
Penny: Coming off injury.
Smoltz: Coming off injury.
Tim Wakefield (will turn 43 in August -- which equates to 35 or 36 in knuckleballer years)
2008: 10-11, 4.13 ERA, 117 K, 60 BB
2007: 17-12, 4.76 ERA, 110 K, 64 BB
2006: 7-11, 4.63 ERA, 90 K, 51 BB
The image that lingers is the shellacking Wakefield absorbed in Game 4 of the American League Championship Series against Tampa Bay -- he surrendered three home runs in 2 2/3 innings of work and never gave his team a chance to win. But in the regular season, he turned in his lowest ERA and lowest WHIP (walks and hits allowed per inning pitched) in half a decade and lasted an average of six innings per start.
With Doug Mirabelli and Kevin Cash gone, he might no longer have a personal catcher -- and that might have an effect on his rhythm on the mound. You know exactly what you're going to get from him every year -- between 10 and 14 wins and an ERA somewhere in the vicinity of 4.50. Then again, should Penny and Buchholz look sharp in spring training, he might be the odd man out.
It might be snowing outside -- at least, it's snowing here at One If By Land headquarters on the South Shore. But it's almost time for baseball to begin! With that in mind, we'll examine a few storylines at each position on the field for the Red Sox -- starting with, well, the starters.
The Red Sox enter the season with perhaps the best 1-2-3 punch in the American League and plenty of depth -- though no one beyond those first three starters can be classified as anything close to a sure thing.
Locks
Josh Beckett (will turn 29 years old in May)
2008: 12-10, 4.03 ERA, 172 K, 34 BB
2007: 20-7, 3.27 ERA, 194 K, 40 BB
2006: 16-11, 5.01 ERA, 158 K, 74 BB
An oblique injury caused him problems in the postseason, where he previously had made himself a reputation as one of the best the game has ever seen. (Despite allowing 14 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings last postseason, he still has a 2.90 ERA in his 13 postseason appearances.) There's no reason he can't win 17 or 18 games and turn in a sub-3.50 ERA and regain his rightful place as the ace of the staff.
Jon Lester (just turned 25 years old)
2008: 16-6, 3.21 ERA, 152 K, 66 BB
2007: 4-0, 4.57 ERA, 50 K, 31 BB; season interrupted by lymphoma
2006: 7-2, 4.76 ERA, 60 K, 43 BB
The cancer is long gone. The only issue now, in fact, might be the wear and tear on his shoulder from his first 200-inning season. He threw 106 innings in 2003, 91 innings in 2004, 148 1/3 innings in 2005, 128 1/3 innings in 2006, 153 innings in 2007 and then 210 1/3 in 2008. That's a big jump. Terry Francona raved last fall about the weight he's added to his body, and that's certainly going to help his endurance. But the Red Sox will have to be wary if he's on a 200-inning pace midway through this season -- even if he's once again pitching like a Cy Young Award candidate.
Daisuke Matsuzaka (turned 28 years old last September)
2008: 18-3, 2.90 ERA, 154 K, 94 BB
2007: 15-12, 4.40 ERA, 201 K, 80 BB
The notorious nibbler walked a league-worst 94 batters a year ago and averaged an even 100 pitchers per start even though he lasted approximately 5 2/3 innings per start. That was a problem. But just about everything else went well -- opponents hit .211 off him for the season, he allowed just 12 home runs, and he allowed either zero earned runs or one earned run in 12 of his 29 starts. And if he can figure out how to throw strikes more consistently -- he walked four or more hitters in 11 of his 29 starts -- he might get the Cy Young consideration that his numbers say he deserved last season.
In the mix
Clay Buchholz (will turn 25 in August)
2008 (majors): 2-9, 6.75 ERA, 72 K, 41 BB
2008 (minors): 5-2, 2.30 ERA, 61 K, 18 BB
2007 (majors): 3-1, 1.59 ERA, 22 K, 10 BB
2007 (minors): 8-5, 2.44 ERA, 171 K, 35 BB
Here's one thing people haven't discussed much about Buchholz -- he seemed to run into some extraordinary bad luck during his big-league stint last season. A pitcher can only control so much on his own. There isn't a whole lot of luck involved in walks or strikeouts -- that depends on the pitcher's skill. There isn't a whole lot of luck involved in home runs, either. If a hitter crushes one, that's usually because the pitcher made a bad pitch. But almost everything else is out of the pitcher's hands. If the pitcher has runners on first and third with one out, a ground ball could either end the inning or keep everything rolling depending on whether it's hit right at the third baseman or in the hole between third base and shortstop.
The stat BAPIP -- batting average on balls put in play -- can be an indicator of a pitcher who's seeing a lot of ground balls find those holes or fly balls drop between outfielders. A pitcher with a high BAPIP often can expect to see his numbers improve the next season as his luck returns to a more normal level.
Here are the BAPIP numbers for the top five Red Sox starters last season:
Wakefield: .240
Matsuzaka: .260
Lester: .300
Beckett: .318
Buchholz: .355
Brad Penny (will turn 31 in May)
2008: 6-9, 6.27 ERA, 51 K, 48 BB
2007: 16-4, 3.03 ERA, 136 K, 73 BB
2006: 16-9, 4.33 ERA, 148 K, 54 BB
Injuries cost Penny a good chunk of his season a year ago -- he missed half of June, all of July, half of August and most of September. And when he did pitch, the results weren't good. He gave up 10 runs in 4 2/3 innings in a loss to the Mets in May, and he gave up seven runs a in 3 2/3 innings in a loss to the Tigers in June. If those injuries remain a factor, he won't spend much time on the Fenway Park mound. But if those injuries are behind him, the Red Sox might have themselves the steal of the free-agent season.
Consider the following comparison:
Player A (249 games) : 94-75, 4.06 ERA, 1,032 K, 475 BB
Player B (220 games) 86-67, 4.02 ERA, 1,132 K, 524 BB
Player A is the career of Brad Penny. Player B is the first nine seasons of the career of Jason Schmidt -- who then went 18-7 with a 3.20 ERA and 251 strikeouts in his 10th season.
Curt Schilling (just turned 42)
Just kidding.
John Smoltz (will turn 42 in May)
2008: 3-2, 2.57 ERA, 36 K, 8 BB
2007: 14-8, 3.11 ERA, 197 K, 47 BB
2006: 16-9, 3.49 ERA, 211 K, 55 BB
Shoulder surgery ended last season for Smoltz after just six starts. Some wondered if he'd join former Braves rotation-mate Greg Maddux in retirement -- and on the Hall of Fame ballot for 2014. But he signed an incentive-laden contract with the Red Sox this winter with an eye on the second half of the season as well as the playoffs, where no pitcher in history has more wins than his 15.
He's certainly getting up there in age. But he still hasn't had an ERA over 4.00 in 15 years, and he's averaged fewer than eight strikeouts per nine innings just once since 2000. As long as he gets his shoulder healthy -- and the Red Sox will give him all the time he needs to do that -- he can be a factor down the stretch. The fascinating question will be whether he'll bump someone from the rotation or whether the Red Sox might try the unorthodox approach of employing six starting pitchers in August and September.
Consider this:
Beckett: Oblique injury torched his postseason.
Lester: Set a new career high in innings pitched last season -- by a wide margin.
Matsuzaka: Was used to five or six days of rest between starts in Japan.
Buchholz: Has never thrown more than 150 innings in his career.
Penny: Coming off injury.
Smoltz: Coming off injury.
Tim Wakefield (will turn 43 in August -- which equates to 35 or 36 in knuckleballer years)
2008: 10-11, 4.13 ERA, 117 K, 60 BB
2007: 17-12, 4.76 ERA, 110 K, 64 BB
2006: 7-11, 4.63 ERA, 90 K, 51 BB
The image that lingers is the shellacking Wakefield absorbed in Game 4 of the American League Championship Series against Tampa Bay -- he surrendered three home runs in 2 2/3 innings of work and never gave his team a chance to win. But in the regular season, he turned in his lowest ERA and lowest WHIP (walks and hits allowed per inning pitched) in half a decade and lasted an average of six innings per start.
With Doug Mirabelli and Kevin Cash gone, he might no longer have a personal catcher -- and that might have an effect on his rhythm on the mound. You know exactly what you're going to get from him every year -- between 10 and 14 wins and an ERA somewhere in the vicinity of 4.50. Then again, should Penny and Buchholz look sharp in spring training, he might be the odd man out.
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