A handful of options for the Red Sox bullpen

As much as we're all focused on who will play left field and shortstop and third base next season, it's important to remember the part of the roster with which Theo Epstein had the most success last season -- and thus the part of the roster he'll undoubtedly try to tweak once again this winter: The bullpen.

Jonathan Papelbon almost certainly will be back. Hideki Okajima has been as consistent as it gets over the last few years. Daniel Bard is an up-and-coming flamethrower -- though no one in this particular neighborhood is completely convinced he's not going to be a starting pitcher at some point. Manny Delcarmen endured his rockiest season. Ramon Ramirez was untouchable in April and May but very touchable in August and September. Takashi Saito has been outrighted off the 40-man roster and likely won't be back. A endless cast of characters rotated through the final spot in the bullpen once Justin Masterson was traded to Cleveland.

(Postscript: And now Billy Wagner is gone, on his way to Atlanta to become the Braves' new closer.)

All of that means Epstein has to be surveying the free-agent market -- between phone calls to Jason Bay's agent, of course -- to see who might be an upgrade on what he has:

Kiko Calero: Even including a miserable season in 2007, the 34-year-old righty has a career 3.24 ERA in 312 appearances out of the bullpen. A year ago, he had a 1.95 ERA and struck out better than a batter an inning and allowed just one home run in 60 innings pitched. His career walk rate is a tick above the major-league average, but so too is his strikeout rate.

Even better: He won't cost a draft pick.

Octavio Dotel: The 36-year-old righty isn't a closer anymore, but he had a 3.55 ERA in 129 1/3 innings spanning two seasons with the White Sox, striking out more than a hitter an inning in both of his years in Chicago. The injury issues that plagued him in Oakland, New York, Kansas City and Atlanta seem to be behind him, and he's evolving as a pitcher: He added a cutter to his repertoire last season.

The downside to Dotel is that he's a Type A free agent who would require the forfeiture of a first-round pick -- though if the Red Sox signed both Dotel and Marco Scutaro, one of the two would mean forfeiting only a second-round pick. Heck, if the Red Sox sign Matt Holliday, they'd only lose a third-round pick for either Dotel or Scutaro.

Mike Gonzalez: Like Wagner, this lefty almost certainly will be looking for job where he can close. (The Pirates, the team with whom he had an All-Star caliber year in 2006, reportedly are interested.) If he doesn't find that, though, he could be a perfect replacement for Wagner in front of Papelbon in the Red Sox bullpen. Gonzalez had a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.85 in his last two seasons in Atlanta, and both righties and lefties have OPS'ed less than .650 against him in his career. Like Dotel, he's a Type A free agent.

Kevin Gregg: Another Type A free agent, the former Cubs and Marlins closer endured a rocky season (4.72 ERA) en route to losing his job at the back end of the bullpen. He has, however, allowed just 14 percent of inherited runners to score in the last two seasons -- even if his walk rate has been above the major-league average in each of the last three seasons.

Brandon Lyon: The righty once traded for Curt Schilling had a 2.86 ERA in setup duty with Detroit this season thanks in large part to a ground ball-to-fly ball ratio well above the major-league average. He allowed inherited runners to score at a less-than-impressive 36 percent clip last season, but his strikeout rate has increased in each of the last two seasons.

Justin Miller: The former disappointment with Toronto has a 3.65 ERA and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.15 over his past three seasons in Florida and San Francisco. His 3.18 ERA last season might be something of a mirage, though, given his K/BB ratio of 1.33, his BABIP of .248 and his inherited runners strand rate of 30 percent.

Chan Ho Park: At one time a devastating free-agent signing in Texas -- the Rangers gave him a $65 million contract after the 2001 season -- Park reinvented himself as a relief pitcher with the Dodgers and Phillies. His strikeout rate is right around the major-league average (7.9 per nine innings last season) but his walk rate is impressive (3.6) and has dropped significantly since his lousy years as a starter. One possible snag: Park told The Korea Times earlier this month that he wants to be a starting pitcher again.

B.J. Ryan: The closer cast off by the Blue Jays last season saw his strikeout rate plummet and his walk rate skyrocket during his years in Toronto, a warning sign for any team interested in him. During his heyday, however, he had a strikeout-to-walk rate around 4.0 and had a sub-3.00 ERA as recently as two seasons ago. The Blue Jays still owe him $10 million next season, so he might come cheap as a flier if he's interested in a chance to redeem himself as a setup man.

Rafael Soriano: There are reports that the Red Sox have requested medical records on the Braves' hard-throwing closer, a 30-year-old with a career 2.92 ERA and strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.51. A year ago, he struck out 12.1 batters per nine innings, and he's flirted with 10.0 and 11.0 several other times during his career. He endured a heavy workload (75 2/3 innings in 77 appearances) a year ago and found himself hit hard by lefties (.746 OPS, though a .330 BABIP didn't help). Still, though, there's a chance he could do what the Red Sox have waited three years for Delcarmen to do -- be the team's primary shut-down reliever against righties.

Claudio Vargas: Another former starter who resurrected his career as a reliever, Vargas had a 1.78 ERA in 30 1/3 innings after being traded to the Milwaukee Brewers a year ago. He's not a pitcher who will miss bats much, though, and he's more of a fly-ball pitcher than a ground-ball pitcher. It would be easy to attribute his success, in fact, to a spectacularly low .202 BABIP a year ago -- a mark he's not likely to replicate.

Picking your spots with the Red Sox bullpen

Theo Epstein constructed perhaps his most impressive bullpen this winter and this summer, acquiring Ramon Ramirez, Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner and promoting Daniel Bard from Triple-A to supplement a group that already had experienced quite a bit of success. Among American League teams, only the Oakland Athletics had a better bullpen ERA during the regular season than the Red Sox.

The postseason, though, is where it counts -- and for all of the group's individual ups and downs, the postseason is where the group's reputation will be made.

But it's not just about talent and execution. It's about Terry Francona and the way he employs his bullpen. Certain relievers thrive in certain situations, and for the Red Sox to get past the Angels (and beyond), he'll need to pick and choose his spots for each of his guys. Here's a primer on how Francona might go about doing that:

Daniel Bard
The rookie went the entire month of July (and beyond) without surrendering an earned run, ripping off a string of 14 innings with an ERA of 0.00. He endured some ups and downs in August and September -- he allowed at least one earned run in six of his 10 appearances in August, for example -- but remains an electric arm with the ability to strike out just about anyone.

Use him: In Games 3 and 4 at Fenway Park. Opponents hit just .207 off the rookie in home games this season, and his 30-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio is astounding. His ERA this season was 1.46 at home and 5.84 on the road.
Don't use him: Against lefties who can go deep. Lefties slugged .488 against him this season and hit four of the home runs he gave up: Johnny Damon, Nick Swisher and Mark Teixeira (twice) hit home runs off him from the left side, but Evan Longoria is the only hitter to have gone deep against him from the right side.

Paul Byrd
The veteran righty came out of retirement this summer to contribute a handful of starts down the stretch, and he'll fill the same role in the playoffs this year that he did last year: Long man out of the bullpen. Byrd made one appearance a year ago, relieving Jon Lester in a Game 3 against Tampa Bay that got out of hand quickly. He gave up an eighth-inning home run in that game to -- you guessed it! -- Rocco Baldelli.

Use him: When a game already has been decided in the early innings. Byrd probably wouldn't even be on the roster if not for the diminishing effectiveness of Manny Delcarmen down the stretch, and his primary use now will be to save the rotation in case of a disastrous start by one of the other starters -- or to make an emergency start if someone gets hurt.
Don't use him: Against lefties, if at all possible. Lefties hit .405 off Byrd in his seven starts -- including seven doubles and three home runs.

Hideki Okajima
The lefty endured one of his most bumpy seasons -- but if you believe in trends, that could be a good omen: He had a lousy ERA in April, June and September but a great ERA in May, July and August. Maybe he's due for another run of being unhittable.

Use him: Against the toughest lefties. Billy Wagner had a slightly lower batting-average-against with lefties (.125 to Okajima's .167), but Okajima had a much better strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.71 to Wagner's 2.67).
Don't use him: When he's inheriting runners. Opponents hit .305 and OBP'ed .380 against Okajima this season with runners on base this season, but they hit just .199 and OBP'ed .259 against him with the bases empty.

Jonathan Papelbon
The closer has seen opponents hit just .189 and slug an amazing .264 against him in the second half, the result of a change in his set position that made him more comfortable even if it increased the wear and tear on his shoulder a little bit. He's well aware he's thrown 25 straight scoreless innings in the playoffs, a run of success he intends to maintain.

Use him: In the game's biggest spots. Opponents hit .128 against Papelbon this season in 86 at-bats with runners in scoring position -- and with the bases loaded, opponents were 1 for 15 this season with 10 strikeouts.
Don't use him: On three days' rest, the only time his control really starts to evaporate. His strikeout-to-walk ratio dipped from 16-to-1 on two days' rest to 13-to-9 on three days' rest, and opponents slugged .409 against him in that situation as well. That makes for a tricky situation in Game 1 -- he'll be on three days' rest after having pitched on Sunday -- but he should be all set to go on a more normal schedule during the rest of the postseason.

Ramon Ramirez
"RamRam" scuffled in the second half but not to the extent of some of his counterparts: His first-half ERA was 2.33, but his second-half ERA still was just 3.48. He throws like a power pitcher but doesn't miss bats like a power pitcher: His strikeout rate is just 6.7 per nine innings, lowest among the relievers left in the bullpen.

Use him: In Games 1, 2 and 5. No Red Sox pitcher has had as much success away from Fenway Park this season as Ramirez: Opponents are hitting .182 off him and slugging .295 off him when the Red Sox are on the road. At home, though, Ramirez has seen opponents hit .285 and slug .477 off him.
Don't use him: Against lefties who can go deep. Lefties slugged .452 against him this season but hit six home runs and eight doubles. When he got hit by lefties, he usually got hit hard.

Takashi Saito
The former Dodgers closer often was used as one of the last relievers out of the bullpen and seemed to benefit from it: His ERA was an impressive 2.43 despite relatively unimpressive peripherals -- including a WHIP of 1.35 and 25 walks issued in 55 2/3 innings.

The Red Sox call him "Sammy," but no one knows why.

Use him: Againstlefties and against switch-hitters with better numbers from the right side. Saito has a pretty severe reverse split -- lefties hit just .195 and slugged just .257 off him -- and that makes him a good weapon against switch-hitters who would prefer to hit righthanded. (This is not the case, however, for the Angels' Kendry Morales or Chone Figgins, both of whom hit better than .300 against righthanded pitchers this season.)
Don't use him: Against righties in a high-leverage situation. Righthanded hitters hit .304 and slugged .500 against Saito this season, including four home runs. No Red Sox reliever allowed more home runs to righthanded hitters.

Billy Wagner
The veteran lefty has terrible career numbers in the playoffs: In his years with the Astros and Mets combined, he has a 9.58 career ERA. It's hard to know what to make of that, though: You can't predict this season's results based on what he did in 1997, can you?

Use him: When you have some righties sandwiched in with a run of lefties. Wagner pitched effectively against lefties, of course, but he actually had just as much success against righties in his short run in Boston -- a .200 batting average against and a 3.5-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In his career, Wagner actually has held righties to a lower batting average (.186) than lefties (.200).
Don't use him: When a walk would be disastrous. Wagner has fought control issues off and on since his arrival, and no reliever on the postseason roster has a higher walk rate than Wagner's 4.6 per nine innings. Then again, the times when a walk would be disastrous are the times a strikeout would be great, and Wagner is averaging 14.5 strikeouts per nine innings since the Red Sox acquired him.

Delcarmen still stranding runners, at least

Earned run average isn't the only way to judge relief pitchers. Takashi Saito, for example, turned a one-run lead on Sunday into a one-run deficit -- and his ERA for the season actually dropped from 2.36 to 2.35.

With that in mind, here's a look at the month-by month ERA for the Red Sox bullpen so far this season:

April: 2.88
May: 3.04
June: 3.82
July: 2.99
August: 4.69
September: 5.09

But, again, ERA isn't the only way to judge relief pitchers.

Even as the Red Sox bullpen ERA has skyrocketed, its rate of stranding inherited runners actually has plummeted. To wit:

Before Aug. 1: 35 for 115 (30.4 percent)
Since Aug. 1: 16 for 71 (22.5 percent)

One reliever is almost individually responsible for that drop, too -- and it's not who you'd think. Hideki Okajima and Ramon Ramirez actually have seen their inherited-runners-scored numbers increase since Aug 1.

Not so for Manny Delcarmen.

While some relievers tend to thrive most in bases-empty situations, the much-maligned Delcarmen have thrived in the most pressure-filled situations. Check out these splits:

Bases empty: .857 OPS
Runners on base: .703 OPS
Bases loaded: .404 OPS

And even as his ERA in September has climbed all the way to 16.20 entering play Monday, he's stranding inherited runners at an incredible rate. He allowed seven of his first 18 runners to score (38.9 percent), but since Aug. 1, he's allowed just one of 15 inherited runners to score (6.7 percent).

Five times in that span, he's come into a game with either two runners on or the bases loaded -- and he's wiggled out without surrendering a run.

Most Red Sox fans start to pull their hair out when Terry Francona calls upon Delcarmen in high-pressure situations with runners on base. Francona, though, might know just what he's doing.

Bullpen well-rested -- but not too well-rested

Manny Delcarmen, Ramon Ramirez, Billy Wagner, Daniel Bard and Jonathan Papelbon all haven't pitched since Wednesday. They're all well-rested for the doubleheader today.

But Hideki Okajima hasn't pitched since Monday. Takashi Saito hasn't pitched since last Friday. Both could use the rest, but both still wouldn't mind staying a little bit sharp.

With an off-day, a rainout and a rain-shortened complete game all in a row, the Red Sox bullpen has found itself increasingly underworked in the last few days.

That, though, is not a bad thing.

With Clay Buchholz (3.03 ERA at Fenway Park this season) and Jon Lester (3.44 ERA in any park this season) on the mound, it might have taken some effort to shoehorn his relief pitchers into games.

"We're at the point in the year where we don't need to do that," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said. "They've got a lot of innings under their belt. We don't need to do that."

Okajima, even with his lengthy layoff, has appeared in more games (62) than anyone on the Red Sox staff. Only 11 pitchers in the American League have appeared in more. Ramirez has appeared in 60 games, tied for 16th in the American League, and closer Jonathan Papelbon has appeared in 59 games.

As a team, the Red Sox have the best bullpen ERA (3.66) in the American League -- and they've actually managed to stay well behind the pack in terms of innings pitched. Here's how it breaks down to this point in the season:

1. Baltimore, 478 2/3 IP
2. Oakland, 475 1/3
3. Cleveland, 478 2/3
4. New York, 451
5. Minnesota, 445 1/3
6. Seattle, 440 1/3
7. Toronto, 428 1/3
8. Los Angeles, 422 2/3
9. Texas, 418 2/3
t-10. Chicago, 416
t-10. Detroit, 416
12. Boston, 410 1/3
13. Kansas City, 408
14. Tampa Bay, 404

Francona has a well-rested bullpen, and he intends to keep it that way. He's not going to force-feed his relief pitchers into the game, and he's not going to pitch any of his relievers twice in the same day if he can help it.

"I wouldn't say that we'd rule it out," he said, "but I don't think that's in anybody's best interest. To sit for three days and then pitch twice in one day -- I know it appears that the guys are rested, but I don't know if pitching them like that makes sense. We try not to do that.

"Saying that, it'll probably happen. But we'll try to stay away from it."

Contrasts in bullpens obvious in late innings

Bill James made his way up into the Fenway Park press box early Thursday evening. He sat and watched the Yankees take batting practice for a few minutes, chatted with a couple of reporters for a few more minutes, and then slipped away almost unnoticed.

The Red Sox senior advisor and legendary baseball innovator wasn't around in the eighth inning when the Yankee flagrantly violated one of his basic tenets of bullpen use. Even though he works for the Red Sox, part of him must have wanted to shake his head in exasperation.

Here's the situation: CC Sabathia had done everything the Yankees could have asked through seven innings. The Red Sox, though, had clawed back within a run in the bottom of the eighth. Nick Green started the inning with a sharp single to center field, and Dustin Pedroia worked a 10-pitch walk that boosted Sabathia's pitch count from 111 pitches to 121 pitches.

The horse was tiring. Alfredo Aceves and Mariano Rivera both were throwing in the New York bullpen.

J.D. Drew was up next. It made sense to leave Sabathia, normally lethal against lefties, in the game to face Drew. On his 123rd pitch of the night, though, he left a slider just up enough for Drew to whack it through the middle of the infield and score Green from second.

Kevin Youkilis was coming to the plate. Sabathia was done. Joe Girardi jogged out to the mound -- and he signaled for Aceves.

Here's why James had to be shaking his head: One of James' then-radical theories was that most teams waste their closer by only using him in save situations. The most important outs of a game, after all, aren't always in the ninth inning. There are plenty of times when a snuffed-out rally in the sixth or seventh -- or, in this case, eighth -- can totally turn the tide of a game. The theory has been misinterpreted as a "closer by committee"; the term "relief ace" might be more appropriate. The idea isn't that just anyone can pitch the ninth inning. The idea is that a team should use its closer -- its relief ace -- to get the game's biggest outs whether it's the seventh inning or the ninth.

Rivera, of course, is the greatest closer in the history of baseball. But the Yankees weren't going to need him to pitch the bottom of the ninth if they couldn't get out of the bottom of the eighth.

"I was possibly going to bring him in in the eighth if the situation arose," Girardi said, "but it didn't come up."

(This leads to a natural follow-up: What situation was Girardi waiting for?)

The situation did arise, apparently, for Aceves to face Kevin Youkilis and Jason Bay -- two guys who have hit home runs off him already this year. Predictably, Youkilis laced a single to right to load the bases and Bay followed with a single to left to score Pedroia with the tying run. Mike Lowell then hit a sacrifice fly to left-center to score Drew with the go-ahead run.

Rivera sat back down. He never did pitch.

"He's a guy that's coming off shoulder surgery," Girardi told reporters. "Mo's not the kind of guy now that you ask to get six outs."

Maybe he's not -- but it seems awfully silly for the Yankees to lose three games in Boston and have the greatest relief pitcher in history not throw a pitch.

***

Contrast all that the way the Red Sox bullpen performed over the last two days.

Ramon Ramirez and Manny Delcarmen came into the series as the two best relief pitchers in the American League, and both melted down on successive days. Ramirez allowed back-to-back home runs on Wednesday before Hideki Okajima bailed him out, and Delcarmen needed to be bailed out, too, after a rough start to Thursday's seventh inning.

(Check out Sunday's Union Leader, by the way, for the story of Ramirez's trip to the major leagues -- an unbelievable story of perseverance and desire. Ten years ago at this time, he already thought his baseball career was over. He's now one of the best relief pitchers in the game.)

With runners on first and third, Delcarmen engaged in a tough battle with Alex Rodriguez. A-Rod worked the count full before jumping on a fastball and ripping a two-run double to left field. The hit -- Rodriguez's first in the series -- gave the Yankees a 3-1 lead.

"I really wanted Manny to try to get through Alex, and it didn't work," Francona said.

The inning wasn't over at that point, though. Rodriguez still was in scoring position, and another big hit threatened to the game out of reach.

Francona didn't want to go to Jonathan Papelbon, not in the seventh inning, not after he'd pitched the day before and endured food poisoning the day before that. But that's the beauty of having more than one closer.

Takashi Saito had 81 saves in three seasons with the Los Angeles Dodgers, including 39 to go along with a 1.40 ERA in 2007, before an elbow injury put him on the shelf and eventually on the scrap heap from which the Red Sox plucked him up. He hasn't exactly pitched like a closer this season, though. Since the Red Sox designated Javier Lopez for assignment, in fact, Saito has become the bullpen's mop-up reliever. Not since May 15 has he entered a game in which the Red Sox led or trailed by two runs or less, a string of six straight outings.

"Sometimes it's more that we want to keep him on regular usage and not too much," Francona said over the weekend. "There are some days when we want to pitch him, and sometimes it's just the luck of the draw what the score is. But we like to have him have clean innings, and he can handle those types of situations. He's a good pitcher, so maybe we're lucky. But those games he pitches in will help maybe a day later or two days later when we have a close game.

"We have the ability right not to overuse people, and we're trying to take advantage of that. Rather than have guys be frustrated, they understand that they're going to get used."

Saito got used on Thursday.

Okajima had thrown 24 pitches the night before. Ramirez had thrown 22. Justin Masterson wasn't a good matchup against Robinson Cano, a switch-hitter who would attack him from the left side. (Cano is 4-for-7 in his career against Masterson.)

Other than rookie Daniel Bard, Saito was all that was left. He was the reliever to whom Francona handed the ball with two outs and Rodriguez standing on second and the game still in the balance.

"That's what he thrives on," starter Brad Penny said. "I saw him in L.A. for three or four years, so I know when he comes into situations like that, it's a lot easier for him to get his adrenaline up and pitch like that."

Saito threw three pitches to Cano; the third was a slider on the outer half of the plate that Cano lofted out to left field for the third out.

The 39-year-old righty then escaped possible trouble in the eighth inning -- thanks in part to a spectacular diving catch from Rocco Baldelli in center field. Saito, though, struck out Nick Swisher for the first out of the eighth inning and Francisco Cervelli to retire the side. The Yankees didn't put another man in scoring position the rest of the game.

"Sammy came in and shut the door and gave us a chance," Francona said. "Some nights you don't score, especially against a guy like CC, but he kept it right there and we kept playing."