Friday, August 28, 2009

A Josh Beckett diagnosis

A reporter -- OK, this reporter -- asked Jason Varitek late Sunday night if there was any surprise that the Yankees went up swinging at the first pitch the way they'd done with such brutal effectiveness. Both Derek Jeter and Hideki Matsui launched first-pitch fastballs over the right-field fence in the first and second innings, and Jose Molina and Jeter swung at back-to-back first-pitch baseballs to open the third inning.

It wasn't until the fourth inning that a Yankee watched a first pitch go by -- and that was Nick Swisher, who has swung at just 17 percent of first pitches this season, fewer even than J.D. Drew.

An inning after Swisher took a first pitch and eventually grounded out on a curveball, Jeter again chased the first pitch -- a terrific cut fastball down in the zone -- and grounded to second base on a checked swing. An inning after that, Swisher came to the plate again and took a hack at the first pitch only to swing and miss. An inning after that, Molina again swung at the first pitch and missed.

Seven innings. Six first-pitch swings. This from a team that's swinging at just 22 percent of first pitches this season, fourth-fewest in the American League.

Was that a surprise, Jason Varitek?

"Not so much with Josh, no," the catcher said.

Check out the first three innings of Beckett's previous start against Toronto and the first pitch of each inning of that start:
First inning: Fastball right down the middle.
Second inning: Fastball right down the middle.
Third inning: Fastball away.

And the start before that against Detroit, a team that swings at 28 percent of first pitches:
First inning: Fastball right down the middle.
Second inning: Fastball away.
Third inning: Fastball right down the middle.

Let's keep going, just for fun, with his Aug. 7 start against the Yankees:
First inning: Fastball up and in.
Second inning: Curveball in the dirt.
(Whoa. Hold on. Stop the presses.)
Third inning: Fastball right down the middle.

Dare we continue? Aug. 1 against Baltimore, a team taht swings at a league-average 26 percent of first pitches:
First inning: Fastball right down the middle.
Second inning: Fastball down and in.
Third inning: Fastball up and away.

With a track record like that, how could the Yankees not be going after the first pitch -- and how could they not be hitting the ball over the fence?

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