Theo Epstein has never had to prepare an arbitration case. A one-year contract just shy of $10 million for Jonathan Papelbon this winter ensured Epstein's record would remain unblemished.
The next challenge for Epstein, though, is looming over the horizon. The next challenge is Jacoby Ellsbury.
Arbitration and the negotiations that usually precede it only get complicated when two sides disagree wildly on the relative value of a player.
Ellsbury is precisely the type of player with whom a panel of arbitrators might have a field day. Ellsbury is an athletic and speedy outfielder with advanced fielding metrics that make him out to be a lousy defensive outfielder. Ellsbury is the best base-stealer in the major leagues but posted an on-base percentage of just .355, fifth-best on his own team. Ellsbury has speed and gap power but hit just 37 combined doubles and triples last season, fewer than Dustin Pedroia and only one more than David Ortiz.
The thing Ellsbury does best -- stealing bases -- isn't something the Red Sox traditionally value. The thing with which Ellsbury has had the most trouble -- drawing walks and getting on base -- is something the Red Sox do value.
It'll be fascinating to see how a panel of arbitrators values the contributions of Ellsbury should the case get that far next winter. Epstein had a history of avoiding arbitration, but it might be difficult for him to find a middle ground with Ellsbury and agent Scott Boras should the two groups differ widely in their evaluation of his abilities.
While assorted clubhouse attendants and contracted movers pack up the truck on Friday for its trip to Fort Myers, Epstein likely will have an eye on the arbitration case of Tampa Bay Rays center fielder B.J. Upton. The two sides in that case were a mere $300,000 apart but couldn't come to an agreement before the deadline to trade figures came and went. The hearing is scheduled for Friday, and a verdict likely will come before Monday.
(Note: The Rays won the arbitration case.)
A win for Upton might not just mean an extra $300,000 in his pocket. A win for Upton might embolden similar players in the future -- Ellsbury being the first -- to go to a hearing and see if they can convince a panel that their athleticism is worth big money.
So far, it seems, players in the Ellsbury mold have been willing to sign long-term extensions to avoid their arbitration years in exchange for financial security. Carl Crawford signed a long-term deal with the Rays. Chone Figgins signed a deal with the Los Angeles Angels. Curtis Granderson signed a deal with the Detroit Tigers. Jose Reyes signed a deal with the New York Mets. Chris Young signed a deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
All of those deals represented financial concessions in exchange for long-term security, just as the contracts of Jon Lester and Dustin Pedroia with the Red Sox did.
There's a pretty good chance, though, that Boras will rebuff any efforts by the Red Sox at a long-term extension for less money and instead take his chances with a year-by-year approach the way Papelbon has. There's little precedent in arbitration for a player whose best asset is his ability to steal bases -- and Boras undoubtedly will dismiss comparisons to Crawford or Granderson as irrelevant given their context within long-term deals.
Just for the sake of argument, though, here's a look at the deals to which the above players agreed in lieu of going through salary arbitration:
Carl Crawford ($15.25 million over four years)
Arb Year 1: $2.5 million
Arb Year 2: $4 million
Arb Year 3: $5.25 million
Chone Figgins ($10.5 million over three years)
Super-Two: $2.25 million*
Arb Year 1: $3.5 million
Arb Year 2: $4.75 million
Arb Year 3: $5.775 million**
* Figgins had enough service time as a Super Two to qualify for four arbitration seasons rather than three
** Figgins signed a one-year deal to avoid a hearing
Curtis Granderson ($30.25 million over five years)
Arb Year 1: $3.5 million
Arb Year 2: $5.5 million
Arb Year 3: $8.25 million
Jose Reyes ($23.25 million over four years)
Arb Year 1: $2.5 million
Arb Year 2: $4 million
Arb Year 3: $5.75 million
Chris Young ($28 million over five years)
Arb Year 1: $3.25 million
Arb Year 2: $5 million
Arb Year 3: $7 million
(One side note: It's fascinating that Jonathan Papelbon earned $6.25 million in his first arbitration while each of the above players earned $3.5 million or less. Saves might be overvalued in the arbitration process, but stolen bases appear not to be.)
If Figgins, Granderson and Young all earned better than $3 million in their fourth major-league season -- a player doesn't qualify for arbitration unless he has at least three seasons of service time, with the exception of Super Twos -- you can bet Boras and Ellsbury will ask for at least $3 million in arbitration.
If Upton wins his case on Friday, you can bet Boras and Ellsbury will ask for close to $4 million in arbitration. Just look at the numbers for the two players last season:
Ellsbury: .301/.355/.415 with 70 stolen bases
Upton: .241/.313/.373 with 42 stolen bases
On top of that, Upton struck out 152 times while Ellsbury struck out 74 times. It's not difficult to make a case that Ellsbury should be paid more than Upton -- especially to an arbitrator who might or might not be well-versed in sabermetrics or advanced defensive statistics.
Should the panel of arbitrators rule in favor of Upton this weekend, Epstein might have to start bracing for the toughest arbitration fight of his career.
Postscript: They didn't. But an initial arbitration figure of $3.5 million is going to be far from out of line for Ellsbury.
Showing posts with label epstein. Show all posts
Showing posts with label epstein. Show all posts
Monday, February 8, 2010
Friday, January 22, 2010
Red Sox probably overpaid for Lackey
With the free-agent market wrapping up for the winter -- pitcher Joel Pineiro has agreed to a two-year, $16 million contract with the Los Angeles Angels -- it's worth revisiting the contract the Red Sox bestowed upon John Lackey in December.
The Red Sox will pay Lackey $82.5 million over the next five seasons, including a team-high $18 million in 2010. They'll pay Lackey more per season than the Angels will pay Piniero for the entire two years of his contract. They probably overpaid.
General manager Theo Epstein cited A.J. Burnett's contract with the New York Yankees in justifying the length of the commitment he made to the former ace of the Los Angeles Angels. He wasn't pressed, however, on exactly why he felt obligated to bid $16.5 million per year even for a pitcher the caliber of Lackey.
Especially in this economic climate -- Johnny Damon, for example, still is waiting for someone to offer him more than $2 or $3 million a year -- it appears Epstein overvalued the pitcher and probably spent money he didn't have to spend.
How can we tell? Consider the other pitchers who have signed multiyear deals this winter:
* Jason Marquis signed a two-year, $15 million contract with Washington, an average annual value of $7.5 million per season. Marquis was worth 3.8 wins above replacement (WAR) last season and 1.8 the season before that, an average of 2.8. The Nationals, looking at it that way, spent $2.68 million per win.
* Piniero has signed a contract worth $8 million per season. Piniero was worth 4.8 wins above replacement (WAR) last season and 0.9 the season before that, an average of 2.85. The Mets, looking at it that way, would spend $2.81 million per win.
* Randy Wolf signed a three-year, $29.75 million contract with Milwaukee, an average annual value of close to $10 million per season. Wolf was worth 3.0 wins above replacement (WAR) last season and 2.5 the season before that, an average of 2.75. The Brewers, looking at it that way, spent $3.64 million per win.
(If you need a refresher on WAR -- the calculated worth of a player, measured in wins added in the standings as compared to an off-the-street replacement -- click here or here.)
Lackey will earn an average of $16.5 million over the five years of his contract. He was worth 3.9 wins above replacement (WAR) last season and 2.0 the season before that.
The Red Sox therefore spent $5.59 million per win -- or slightly less than the Nationals and Brewers spent for Marquis and Wolf combined. If you look only at his 3.9 WAR season of a year ago, the Red Sox still spent $4.23 million per win, well above what the Nationals and Brewers spent.
(Side note: The idea for every team is to pay for future performance, not past performance. Free agency, however, tends to reward past performance at least as much as future performance, and that's why two previous years' worth of WAR numbers are at least as valuable to this exercise as what teams did get or will get out of their free agents. Particularly for veterans like Lackey, the immediate past can be as predictive as anything else available.)
If Lackey is going to be worth $16.5 million a season, he's probably going to need to post a WAR closer to 5.0 or 6.0 -- an accomplishment of which he's more than capable, with his outstanding 2007 season as the most recent evidence -- than 3.9. The market this winter bears that out. The market last winter bears that out, too.
Consider the six pitchers who signed free-agent contracts a winter ago, another winter in wich the market tended to be depressed:
* Jamie Moyer, Philadelphia: $3.02 million per win
* CC Sabathia, New York Yankees: $3.15 million per win
(Don't be shocked: Sabathia had been a seven-win improvement over the average pitcher, and that made his $23 million salary just about right. Even in his first season in New York, Sabathia was a six-win improvement over a replacement pitcher, meaning the Yankees still paid less than $4 million per win.)
* Derek Lowe, Atlanta: $3.66 million per win
* A.J. Burnett, New York Yankees: $4.07 million per win
* Ryan Dempster, Chicago: $4.81 million per win
* Oliver Perez, New York Mets: $6.86 million per win
Only one of those contracts makes Lackey look like a bargain -- and that contract looked like a bad idea even before it was signed.
Even J.D. Drew's much-discussed $70 million contract looks far more reasonable than that of Lackey when viewed through the prism of his production. Drew posted a WAR of 4.3 in his final season in Los Angeles and a WAR of 2.9 the season before that, an average of 3.6. His $14 million average annual salary results in a dollars-per-win of $3.89 million -- still well below what the Red Sox spent for Lackey.
FanGraphs.com, based on an extensive study, has posited that each win-above-replacement was worth $4.5 million on last year's free-agent market -- but those numbers seem a little bit high when you consider that FanGraphs had Drew being worth $21.1 million last season and Jon Lester being worth $28.1 million.
It's probably more reasonable to assume, based on the precedent set last offseason, that teams value wins above replacement at somewhere between $3.5 and $4 million apiece.
Lackey is capable of posting a WAR of 5.0, the type of WAR that would make his $16.5 million annual salary worthwhile. He is, however, 31 years old, and he hasn't posted a WAR of even 4.0 in either of the last two seasons.
Epstein, for his part, can afford to overspend for players. His budget dwarfs that of most of the teams in the major leagues. But when a luxury-tax hit of $2 million becomes so much of an issue that the Red Sox tradedaway a 26-year-old first baseman with an elite defensive glove, it shows that the resources aren't endless.
Unless Lackey pitches like a Cy Young Award candidate throughout the length of his contract, Epstein and the Red Sox probably overpaid.
The Red Sox will pay Lackey $82.5 million over the next five seasons, including a team-high $18 million in 2010. They'll pay Lackey more per season than the Angels will pay Piniero for the entire two years of his contract. They probably overpaid.
General manager Theo Epstein cited A.J. Burnett's contract with the New York Yankees in justifying the length of the commitment he made to the former ace of the Los Angeles Angels. He wasn't pressed, however, on exactly why he felt obligated to bid $16.5 million per year even for a pitcher the caliber of Lackey.
Especially in this economic climate -- Johnny Damon, for example, still is waiting for someone to offer him more than $2 or $3 million a year -- it appears Epstein overvalued the pitcher and probably spent money he didn't have to spend.
How can we tell? Consider the other pitchers who have signed multiyear deals this winter:
* Jason Marquis signed a two-year, $15 million contract with Washington, an average annual value of $7.5 million per season. Marquis was worth 3.8 wins above replacement (WAR) last season and 1.8 the season before that, an average of 2.8. The Nationals, looking at it that way, spent $2.68 million per win.
* Piniero has signed a contract worth $8 million per season. Piniero was worth 4.8 wins above replacement (WAR) last season and 0.9 the season before that, an average of 2.85. The Mets, looking at it that way, would spend $2.81 million per win.
* Randy Wolf signed a three-year, $29.75 million contract with Milwaukee, an average annual value of close to $10 million per season. Wolf was worth 3.0 wins above replacement (WAR) last season and 2.5 the season before that, an average of 2.75. The Brewers, looking at it that way, spent $3.64 million per win.
(If you need a refresher on WAR -- the calculated worth of a player, measured in wins added in the standings as compared to an off-the-street replacement -- click here or here.)
Lackey will earn an average of $16.5 million over the five years of his contract. He was worth 3.9 wins above replacement (WAR) last season and 2.0 the season before that.
The Red Sox therefore spent $5.59 million per win -- or slightly less than the Nationals and Brewers spent for Marquis and Wolf combined. If you look only at his 3.9 WAR season of a year ago, the Red Sox still spent $4.23 million per win, well above what the Nationals and Brewers spent.
(Side note: The idea for every team is to pay for future performance, not past performance. Free agency, however, tends to reward past performance at least as much as future performance, and that's why two previous years' worth of WAR numbers are at least as valuable to this exercise as what teams did get or will get out of their free agents. Particularly for veterans like Lackey, the immediate past can be as predictive as anything else available.)
If Lackey is going to be worth $16.5 million a season, he's probably going to need to post a WAR closer to 5.0 or 6.0 -- an accomplishment of which he's more than capable, with his outstanding 2007 season as the most recent evidence -- than 3.9. The market this winter bears that out. The market last winter bears that out, too.
Consider the six pitchers who signed free-agent contracts a winter ago, another winter in wich the market tended to be depressed:
* Jamie Moyer, Philadelphia: $3.02 million per win
* CC Sabathia, New York Yankees: $3.15 million per win
(Don't be shocked: Sabathia had been a seven-win improvement over the average pitcher, and that made his $23 million salary just about right. Even in his first season in New York, Sabathia was a six-win improvement over a replacement pitcher, meaning the Yankees still paid less than $4 million per win.)
* Derek Lowe, Atlanta: $3.66 million per win
* A.J. Burnett, New York Yankees: $4.07 million per win
* Ryan Dempster, Chicago: $4.81 million per win
* Oliver Perez, New York Mets: $6.86 million per win
Only one of those contracts makes Lackey look like a bargain -- and that contract looked like a bad idea even before it was signed.
Even J.D. Drew's much-discussed $70 million contract looks far more reasonable than that of Lackey when viewed through the prism of his production. Drew posted a WAR of 4.3 in his final season in Los Angeles and a WAR of 2.9 the season before that, an average of 3.6. His $14 million average annual salary results in a dollars-per-win of $3.89 million -- still well below what the Red Sox spent for Lackey.
FanGraphs.com, based on an extensive study, has posited that each win-above-replacement was worth $4.5 million on last year's free-agent market -- but those numbers seem a little bit high when you consider that FanGraphs had Drew being worth $21.1 million last season and Jon Lester being worth $28.1 million.
It's probably more reasonable to assume, based on the precedent set last offseason, that teams value wins above replacement at somewhere between $3.5 and $4 million apiece.
Lackey is capable of posting a WAR of 5.0, the type of WAR that would make his $16.5 million annual salary worthwhile. He is, however, 31 years old, and he hasn't posted a WAR of even 4.0 in either of the last two seasons.
Epstein, for his part, can afford to overspend for players. His budget dwarfs that of most of the teams in the major leagues. But when a luxury-tax hit of $2 million becomes so much of an issue that the Red Sox tradedaway a 26-year-old first baseman with an elite defensive glove, it shows that the resources aren't endless.
Unless Lackey pitches like a Cy Young Award candidate throughout the length of his contract, Epstein and the Red Sox probably overpaid.
Friday, January 8, 2010
"Clutch pitching" bailed out defense last year
Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein has made clear both through words and actions that he was dissatisfied with the way his team played defense a year ago. The Red Sox actually allowed fewer runs than all but two teams in the American League last season, but several other metrics make it clear upgrades had to be made.
(For more on that side of things, click here.)
Why didn't the team allow more runs?
Part of it was luck, Epstein told a group of reporters after a press conference introducing Adrian Beltre on Friday. Part of it was pitching.
"In looking at last year’s club, we had a real problem with our defense," he said. "We were lucky it didn’t become a more obvious problem, didn’t manifest as much as much as it could have – or would have had we brought back the exact same team this year.
"We were really good at quote-unquote 'clutch pitching' last year. We pitched our way out of a lot of jams, so our pitching performance ended up being a little better than it might have been otherwise if things had turned out a little differently. Our defense really did our pitching staff no favors last year."
A closer look at the numbers:
* With runners on base last season, Red Sox pitchers had the best strikeout-to-walk ratio (2.03) in the American League. Toronto (1.97), Oakland (1.94), Tampa Bay (1.92) and New York (1.92) were close.
* With runners in scoring position last season, Red Sox pitchers had the best strikeout-to-walk ratio (1.94) in the American League. Only Toronto (1.87) was close.
In tough spots last season, in other words, Red Sox pitchers took it upon themselves more often than did pitchers on any other American League team.
Closer Jonathan Papelbon, his ALDS meltdown notwithstanding, might be the best example: His strikeout-to-walk ratio last season jumped from 2.36 with the bases empty to 3.85 with men on base-- and he struck out 10 of the 15 hitters he faced with the bases loaded.
That's not something Red Sox pitchers can be expected to do again this year -- and that's why Epstein felt such urgency to improve the way his team fields the ball.
(For more on that side of things, click here.)
Why didn't the team allow more runs?
Part of it was luck, Epstein told a group of reporters after a press conference introducing Adrian Beltre on Friday. Part of it was pitching.
"In looking at last year’s club, we had a real problem with our defense," he said. "We were lucky it didn’t become a more obvious problem, didn’t manifest as much as much as it could have – or would have had we brought back the exact same team this year.
"We were really good at quote-unquote 'clutch pitching' last year. We pitched our way out of a lot of jams, so our pitching performance ended up being a little better than it might have been otherwise if things had turned out a little differently. Our defense really did our pitching staff no favors last year."
A closer look at the numbers:
* With runners on base last season, Red Sox pitchers had the best strikeout-to-walk ratio (2.03) in the American League. Toronto (1.97), Oakland (1.94), Tampa Bay (1.92) and New York (1.92) were close.
* With runners in scoring position last season, Red Sox pitchers had the best strikeout-to-walk ratio (1.94) in the American League. Only Toronto (1.87) was close.
In tough spots last season, in other words, Red Sox pitchers took it upon themselves more often than did pitchers on any other American League team.
Closer Jonathan Papelbon, his ALDS meltdown notwithstanding, might be the best example: His strikeout-to-walk ratio last season jumped from 2.36 with the bases empty to 3.85 with men on base-- and he struck out 10 of the 15 hitters he faced with the bases loaded.
That's not something Red Sox pitchers can be expected to do again this year -- and that's why Epstein felt such urgency to improve the way his team fields the ball.
Monday, January 4, 2010
Beltre completes Red Sox bridge
Oh, and you thought a "bridge" meant a third-place season?
Reports indicate that the Red Sox have signed third baseman Adrian Beltre to a one-year deal worth $9 million with a player option for 2011 worth $5 million.
It's a perfect fit for the bridge Theo Epstein is trying to build to the prospects in the lower levels of his minor-league system.
Wait a second, MacPherson, you're already saying. Didn't you just write, a couple of days ago, that Beltre was, in fact, not a fit for the Red Sox bridge?
That's true.
Here's the difference: A one-year deal for Beltre, even with a player option, gives the Red Sox exactly the type of flexibility they crave. Consider this excerpt from the above blog post:
What happens if cancer survivor Anthony Rizzo tears apart Double-A this year and is beating down the door to the major leagues midway through the 2011 season? What happens if Lars Anderson rediscovers the power stroke that generated so much hype last season? Even more likely: What happens if Adrian Gonzalez becomes available in July the way many expect him to be?
The Red Sox can't count on Anderson. The Red Sox can't count on Rizzo. The Red Sox certainly can't count on Gonzalez landing in their laps sometime in July.
What they can count on, though, is tremendous flexibility going forward both with their finances and with their roster. Consider the money coming off the books in the next two seasons:
After 2010
Josh Beckett ($12.1 million)
Adrian Beltre ($9 million, if option is not picked up)
Mike Lowell ($12.5 million)
Julio Lugo ($9 million)
Victor Martinez ($7.7 million)
David Ortiz ($13 million)
After 2011
Beltre ($5 million, if option is picked up)
Mike Cameron ($7.75 million)
J.D. Drew ($14 million)
Jonathan Papelbon ($10 million, maybe)
Marco Scutaro ($5 million, if option not picked up)
The Red Sox have prospects on the way like Anderson, Rizzo, Jose Iglesias, Ryan Kalish, Josh Reddick and Ryan Westmoreland -- and those are just the position players.
When Theo Epstein talked about a bridge year, he was talking about restocking his roster without blocking the talent in his minor-league system and without eliminating the possibility of a trade for Gonzalez or Miguel Cabrera or Prince Fielder.
A one-year deal for Beltre -- a steal, really, considering the numbers Scott Boras was throwing around way back when -- fits that philosophy precisely.
Two things could happen this season with Beltre:
1. Beltre could play terrific baseball;
2. Beltre could play terrible baseball.
Two things could happen this season with the Red Sox:
4. Beltre could become expendable -- be it via a trade for Gonzalez or via a tremendous year out of Anderson or Rizzo, players who conceivably could be ready to play first base in the major leagues in 2011;
2. Beltre could become indispensable when none of the above scenarios play out.
If both No. 1s play out, the Red Sox would find themselves in a great situation. Not only would they be getting a third baseman playing terrific baseball, but they'd have either be bringing him back for a second year at a bargain-basement price or be replacing him with someone even more valuable.
If the Red Sox trade for Gonzalez or make clear their intention to promote Anderson or Rizzo, after all, he'd face the same situation as Jason Varitek did this winter: He'd have to exercise a player option knowing no starting job awaited him.
(Then again, if Ortiz is allowed to walk away, Anderson or Gonzalez or Rizzo could be a designated hitter for a year until Beltre's contract expires.)
If both No. 2s play out, a worst-case scenario, the Red Sox wouldn't have done anything to cripple themselves going forward. Beltre would likely pick up his $5 million player option to rebuild his value, but that's far from a crippling contract. The Red Sox still would have plenty of money -- thanks to the expiring contracts of Lowell, Lugo and Ortiz -- to go out and find a corner infielder either on a short-term deal or a long-term deal.
Epstein has always talked about running his big-market Red Sox like a small-market team.
Small-market teams don't cripple themselves with long-term contracts, instead going short-term with veteran players to allow themselves to infuse young talent whenever possible.
In that way, the one-year deal to which Beltre agreed on Monday is just the type of small-market deal that perfectly fits the Epstein philosophy.
Reports indicate that the Red Sox have signed third baseman Adrian Beltre to a one-year deal worth $9 million with a player option for 2011 worth $5 million.
It's a perfect fit for the bridge Theo Epstein is trying to build to the prospects in the lower levels of his minor-league system.
Wait a second, MacPherson, you're already saying. Didn't you just write, a couple of days ago, that Beltre was, in fact, not a fit for the Red Sox bridge?
That's true.
Here's the difference: A one-year deal for Beltre, even with a player option, gives the Red Sox exactly the type of flexibility they crave. Consider this excerpt from the above blog post:
What happens if cancer survivor Anthony Rizzo tears apart Double-A this year and is beating down the door to the major leagues midway through the 2011 season? What happens if Lars Anderson rediscovers the power stroke that generated so much hype last season? Even more likely: What happens if Adrian Gonzalez becomes available in July the way many expect him to be?
The Red Sox can't count on Anderson. The Red Sox can't count on Rizzo. The Red Sox certainly can't count on Gonzalez landing in their laps sometime in July.
What they can count on, though, is tremendous flexibility going forward both with their finances and with their roster. Consider the money coming off the books in the next two seasons:
After 2010
Josh Beckett ($12.1 million)
Adrian Beltre ($9 million, if option is not picked up)
Mike Lowell ($12.5 million)
Julio Lugo ($9 million)
Victor Martinez ($7.7 million)
David Ortiz ($13 million)
After 2011
Beltre ($5 million, if option is picked up)
Mike Cameron ($7.75 million)
J.D. Drew ($14 million)
Jonathan Papelbon ($10 million, maybe)
Marco Scutaro ($5 million, if option not picked up)
The Red Sox have prospects on the way like Anderson, Rizzo, Jose Iglesias, Ryan Kalish, Josh Reddick and Ryan Westmoreland -- and those are just the position players.
When Theo Epstein talked about a bridge year, he was talking about restocking his roster without blocking the talent in his minor-league system and without eliminating the possibility of a trade for Gonzalez or Miguel Cabrera or Prince Fielder.
A one-year deal for Beltre -- a steal, really, considering the numbers Scott Boras was throwing around way back when -- fits that philosophy precisely.
Two things could happen this season with Beltre:
1. Beltre could play terrific baseball;
2. Beltre could play terrible baseball.
Two things could happen this season with the Red Sox:
4. Beltre could become expendable -- be it via a trade for Gonzalez or via a tremendous year out of Anderson or Rizzo, players who conceivably could be ready to play first base in the major leagues in 2011;
2. Beltre could become indispensable when none of the above scenarios play out.
If both No. 1s play out, the Red Sox would find themselves in a great situation. Not only would they be getting a third baseman playing terrific baseball, but they'd have either be bringing him back for a second year at a bargain-basement price or be replacing him with someone even more valuable.
If the Red Sox trade for Gonzalez or make clear their intention to promote Anderson or Rizzo, after all, he'd face the same situation as Jason Varitek did this winter: He'd have to exercise a player option knowing no starting job awaited him.
(Then again, if Ortiz is allowed to walk away, Anderson or Gonzalez or Rizzo could be a designated hitter for a year until Beltre's contract expires.)
If both No. 2s play out, a worst-case scenario, the Red Sox wouldn't have done anything to cripple themselves going forward. Beltre would likely pick up his $5 million player option to rebuild his value, but that's far from a crippling contract. The Red Sox still would have plenty of money -- thanks to the expiring contracts of Lowell, Lugo and Ortiz -- to go out and find a corner infielder either on a short-term deal or a long-term deal.
Epstein has always talked about running his big-market Red Sox like a small-market team.
Small-market teams don't cripple themselves with long-term contracts, instead going short-term with veteran players to allow themselves to infuse young talent whenever possible.
In that way, the one-year deal to which Beltre agreed on Monday is just the type of small-market deal that perfectly fits the Epstein philosophy.
The task of replacing Jason McLeod
(Update: Amiel Sawdaye was named the new director of amateur scouting on Jan. 6, replacing the departed Jason McLeod.)
Theo Epstein tends to get the credit for the way the Red Sox have infused a roster once populated with retreads and underachievers with impact young talent from within his organization.
More of the credit, though, should go to scouting director Jason McLeod, the executive who had overseen five June drafts -- as far as we can tell so far, all five of them productive -- before his departure for San Diego in early December.
In the three seasons before McLeod became amateur scouting director under Epstein -- including the two seasons in which he was working in various capacities in San Diego -- the Red Sox drafted just three impact major-league players. In just the first two seasons under McLeod, however, the Red Sox drafted Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, Jed Lowrie, Daniel Bard, Justin Masterson and a slew of highly touted players still working their way through the system.
The next scouting director will have the benefit of a smorgasbord of draft picks: A first-rounder, two supplemental first-rounders and an early second-rounder, all likely to fall within the top 50 overall.
In case you're worried that the Red Sox might miss out on such an opportunity as they're transitioning from McLeod to his successor, though, it's worth looking back at the team's previous three scouting directors and their drafts -- and the way that all three actually had the most success in the draft in their first years at the helm:
* Wayne Britton drafted Trot Nixon and Jeff Suppan in 1993;
* David Chadd drafted Jon Lester in 2002;
* McLeod drafted Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz in 2005.
A closer look follows.
(Thanks to SoxProspects.com for making the legwork easy. There is no more comprehensive or easily navigated team-specific prospects site out there. Baseball-Reference.com's easily searched draft database likewise deserves a tip of the cap.)
Wayne Britton (1993-2001)
Best draft: 1993
Major-leaguers: 10
Highlights: Trot Nixon (1), Jeff Suppan (2), Lou Merloni (10)
True, the Red Sox passed on Billy Wagner, Derrek Lee, Chris Carpenter, Torii Hunter and even Jason Varitek to select Nixon. So, too, though, did plenty of other teams -- including the Royals (Jeff Granger), Giants (Steve Soderstrom), Mets (Kirk Presley) and Tigers (Matt Brunson), among more than a few others. Suppan easily is the second-best player to emerge from the second round of that draft behind only Scott Rolen. All in all, coming out of the first two rounds with two impact major-league players is something of which a scouting director can be proud.
Worst draft: 1995-97
Major-leaguers: 7, 9 and 9, respectively
Highlights: Shea Hillenbrand (10), David Eckstein (19), Pat Burrell (43, was ticketed to play third base for Miami and did not sign)
Three straight years of disastrous drafts set the table for the misery that was the 2001 season for the Red Sox. First-rounders Andy Yount, Josh Garrett and John Curtice all flopped. Supplemental first-rounders Corey Jenkins, Chris Reitsma and Mark Fischer weren't any better. Curtice and Reitsma were traded to Cincinnati in 2000 for Dante Bichette. Only Reitsma ever made it to the major leagues, compiling a 4.70 ERA in 609 career innings pitched.
Average major-leaguer output: 8.1
In 2001, Britton's final season in charge of a draft, he yielded just four players who eventually would reach the major leagues. Two of them, however, were catcher Kelly Shoppach and All-Star infielder Kevin Youkilis.
David Chadd (2002-04)
Best draft: 2002
Major-leaguers: 5
Highlights: Jon Lester (2), Brandon Moss (8), Ricky Romero (37), Brian Bannister (45)
Chadd hit a home run with the first pick he ever made as Red Sox scouting director, landing a lefty who has developed into one of the elite pitchers in the major leaguers. He also gets a little bit of credit for seeing something in Romero, a first-round pick out of Cal State-Fullerton three years later, and Bannister, a seventh-round pick out of the Mets out of Southern Cal the very next year.
Worst draft: 2004
Major-leaguers: 4
Highlights: Dustin Pedroia (2)
Had the Red Sox not mishandled Cla Meredith, he, too, might have ended up on the list alongside Pedroia. Besides that, though, the pickings get slim. Third-rounder Andrew Dobies was a 26-year-old at Double-A last season, and fourth-rounder Tommy Hottovy was at the same level at age 27. Michael Rozier commanded a $1.5 million signing bonus to pry him away from a football scholarship to North Carolina but was released last March because his ERA had started to look like a touchdown.
Average major-leaguer output: 4.7
Lester, Pedroia and Jonathan Papelbon all are All-Stars, but there's a precipitous drop-off in impact after that. The next-best player the Red Sox drafted under Chadd either is Brandon Moss or David Murphy, and neither of those two outfielders is a starter on a decent team.
Jason McLeod (2005-2009)
Best draft: 2005
Major-leaguers: 6
Highlights: Jacoby Ellsbury (1), Clay Buchholz (1s), Jed Lowrie (1s)
Like the two scouting directors who preceded him, McLeod appears to have hit a home run with his first pick: Ellsbury already is a fan favorite and established as the leadoff hitter in the Red Sox lineup. Buchholz looks to be on the verge of joining Lester as a home-grown ace. Catcher Mark Wagner, a ninth-rounder in this same draft, still is making his way through the system.
(The 2006 might just challenge this draft before long: Daniel Bard, Justin Masterson, Aaron Bates, Dustin Richardson, Ryan Kalish, Josh Reddick and Lars Anderson all came on board that year, and Matt LaPorta was drafted out of Florida but did not sign.)
Worst draft: 2007
Major-leaguers: Too early to tell
Highlights: Nick Hagadone (1s), Anthony Rizzo (6)
It's harsh even to use the word "worst," but one has to rank at the bottom of the list. It's far too early to judge a draft that's just two seasons old, but it's telling that some of the top picks in that draft have been leapfrogged by the top picks from the draft a season later. Rizzo was the No. 8 prospect on Baseball America's most recent list, but the next-most promising prospect from that class appears to be infielder Will Middlebrooks, a fifth-round selection who hit 25 doubles with a .349 on-base percentage at Single-A Greenville last season.
(Hagadone might yet be a dominant closer in the major leagues, but he was traded to Cleveland in the Victor Martinez deal last July. The lefty had a 2.80 ERA and 59 strikeouts in 45 minor-league innings last season.)
Average major-leaguer output: 6
(That figure includes only 2005 and 2006. No Red Sox draftees from 2007 are in the major leagues yet. Then again, only a handful of players from the entire 2007 draft have made it to the major leagues: David Price, Matt Wieters, Rick Porcello, Jordan Zimmermann and a handful of others who have had cups of coffee.)
McLeod's drafts put Chadd's drafts to shame. Not once in his three seasons did Chadd accumulate a draft that send more than five players to the major leagues -- something McLeod already has done with both his 2005 and 2006 drafts.
Think about that: Only three years out, the Red Sox already have six players from their 2006 draft class who have played in the major leagues. That doesn't even include Anderson or Kalish, who figure to make the leap either in 2010 or 2011.
Theo Epstein tends to get the credit for the way the Red Sox have infused a roster once populated with retreads and underachievers with impact young talent from within his organization.
More of the credit, though, should go to scouting director Jason McLeod, the executive who had overseen five June drafts -- as far as we can tell so far, all five of them productive -- before his departure for San Diego in early December.
In the three seasons before McLeod became amateur scouting director under Epstein -- including the two seasons in which he was working in various capacities in San Diego -- the Red Sox drafted just three impact major-league players. In just the first two seasons under McLeod, however, the Red Sox drafted Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, Jed Lowrie, Daniel Bard, Justin Masterson and a slew of highly touted players still working their way through the system.
The next scouting director will have the benefit of a smorgasbord of draft picks: A first-rounder, two supplemental first-rounders and an early second-rounder, all likely to fall within the top 50 overall.
In case you're worried that the Red Sox might miss out on such an opportunity as they're transitioning from McLeod to his successor, though, it's worth looking back at the team's previous three scouting directors and their drafts -- and the way that all three actually had the most success in the draft in their first years at the helm:
* Wayne Britton drafted Trot Nixon and Jeff Suppan in 1993;
* David Chadd drafted Jon Lester in 2002;
* McLeod drafted Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz in 2005.
A closer look follows.
(Thanks to SoxProspects.com for making the legwork easy. There is no more comprehensive or easily navigated team-specific prospects site out there. Baseball-Reference.com's easily searched draft database likewise deserves a tip of the cap.)
Wayne Britton (1993-2001)
Best draft: 1993
Major-leaguers: 10
Highlights: Trot Nixon (1), Jeff Suppan (2), Lou Merloni (10)
True, the Red Sox passed on Billy Wagner, Derrek Lee, Chris Carpenter, Torii Hunter and even Jason Varitek to select Nixon. So, too, though, did plenty of other teams -- including the Royals (Jeff Granger), Giants (Steve Soderstrom), Mets (Kirk Presley) and Tigers (Matt Brunson), among more than a few others. Suppan easily is the second-best player to emerge from the second round of that draft behind only Scott Rolen. All in all, coming out of the first two rounds with two impact major-league players is something of which a scouting director can be proud.
Worst draft: 1995-97
Major-leaguers: 7, 9 and 9, respectively
Highlights: Shea Hillenbrand (10), David Eckstein (19), Pat Burrell (43, was ticketed to play third base for Miami and did not sign)
Three straight years of disastrous drafts set the table for the misery that was the 2001 season for the Red Sox. First-rounders Andy Yount, Josh Garrett and John Curtice all flopped. Supplemental first-rounders Corey Jenkins, Chris Reitsma and Mark Fischer weren't any better. Curtice and Reitsma were traded to Cincinnati in 2000 for Dante Bichette. Only Reitsma ever made it to the major leagues, compiling a 4.70 ERA in 609 career innings pitched.
Average major-leaguer output: 8.1
In 2001, Britton's final season in charge of a draft, he yielded just four players who eventually would reach the major leagues. Two of them, however, were catcher Kelly Shoppach and All-Star infielder Kevin Youkilis.
David Chadd (2002-04)
Best draft: 2002
Major-leaguers: 5
Highlights: Jon Lester (2), Brandon Moss (8), Ricky Romero (37), Brian Bannister (45)
Chadd hit a home run with the first pick he ever made as Red Sox scouting director, landing a lefty who has developed into one of the elite pitchers in the major leaguers. He also gets a little bit of credit for seeing something in Romero, a first-round pick out of Cal State-Fullerton three years later, and Bannister, a seventh-round pick out of the Mets out of Southern Cal the very next year.
Worst draft: 2004
Major-leaguers: 4
Highlights: Dustin Pedroia (2)
Had the Red Sox not mishandled Cla Meredith, he, too, might have ended up on the list alongside Pedroia. Besides that, though, the pickings get slim. Third-rounder Andrew Dobies was a 26-year-old at Double-A last season, and fourth-rounder Tommy Hottovy was at the same level at age 27. Michael Rozier commanded a $1.5 million signing bonus to pry him away from a football scholarship to North Carolina but was released last March because his ERA had started to look like a touchdown.
Average major-leaguer output: 4.7
Lester, Pedroia and Jonathan Papelbon all are All-Stars, but there's a precipitous drop-off in impact after that. The next-best player the Red Sox drafted under Chadd either is Brandon Moss or David Murphy, and neither of those two outfielders is a starter on a decent team.
Jason McLeod (2005-2009)
Best draft: 2005
Major-leaguers: 6
Highlights: Jacoby Ellsbury (1), Clay Buchholz (1s), Jed Lowrie (1s)
Like the two scouting directors who preceded him, McLeod appears to have hit a home run with his first pick: Ellsbury already is a fan favorite and established as the leadoff hitter in the Red Sox lineup. Buchholz looks to be on the verge of joining Lester as a home-grown ace. Catcher Mark Wagner, a ninth-rounder in this same draft, still is making his way through the system.
(The 2006 might just challenge this draft before long: Daniel Bard, Justin Masterson, Aaron Bates, Dustin Richardson, Ryan Kalish, Josh Reddick and Lars Anderson all came on board that year, and Matt LaPorta was drafted out of Florida but did not sign.)
Worst draft: 2007
Major-leaguers: Too early to tell
Highlights: Nick Hagadone (1s), Anthony Rizzo (6)
It's harsh even to use the word "worst," but one has to rank at the bottom of the list. It's far too early to judge a draft that's just two seasons old, but it's telling that some of the top picks in that draft have been leapfrogged by the top picks from the draft a season later. Rizzo was the No. 8 prospect on Baseball America's most recent list, but the next-most promising prospect from that class appears to be infielder Will Middlebrooks, a fifth-round selection who hit 25 doubles with a .349 on-base percentage at Single-A Greenville last season.
(Hagadone might yet be a dominant closer in the major leagues, but he was traded to Cleveland in the Victor Martinez deal last July. The lefty had a 2.80 ERA and 59 strikeouts in 45 minor-league innings last season.)
Average major-leaguer output: 6
(That figure includes only 2005 and 2006. No Red Sox draftees from 2007 are in the major leagues yet. Then again, only a handful of players from the entire 2007 draft have made it to the major leagues: David Price, Matt Wieters, Rick Porcello, Jordan Zimmermann and a handful of others who have had cups of coffee.)
McLeod's drafts put Chadd's drafts to shame. Not once in his three seasons did Chadd accumulate a draft that send more than five players to the major leagues -- something McLeod already has done with both his 2005 and 2006 drafts.
Think about that: Only three years out, the Red Sox already have six players from their 2006 draft class who have played in the major leagues. That doesn't even include Anderson or Kalish, who figure to make the leap either in 2010 or 2011.
Thursday, December 31, 2009
Beltre not a fit for Red Sox bridge
As much hysteria as came with Theo Epstein's "bridge" talk earlier this month, the topic is worth revisiting -- if for no other reason than the fact that most analysts seem to have missed the point.
Here's the money quote again:
"We talked about this a lot at the end of the year, that we’re kind of in a bridge period. We still think that if we push some of the right buttons, we can be competitive at the very highest levels for the next two years. But we don’t want to compromise too much of the future for that competitiveness during the bridge period, but we all don’t want to sacrifice our competitiveness during the bridge just for the future. So we’re just trying to balance both those issues."
Here's what Epstein seems to be saying:
1. He has an eye on the arrival of some of his top prospects in the next couple of years, prospects that can re-infuse the Red Sox with talent.
2. He believes his team can be competitive "at the very highest levels for the next two years" without sacrificing all of that talent.
Keep in mind: Sacrificing talent doesn't mean trading talent. Sacrificing talent can mean blocking talent indefinitely -- thus all but forcing a trade. That's where Adrian Beltre comes into play -- not to mention names like Russell Branyan and Adam LaRoche that have been thrown around. The Red Sox still need a bat, or so they're saying, and Branyan, Beltre or LaRoche might be just enough to help them replace Jason Bay.
Beltre, one of the best defensive third baseman in the major leagues, has been rumored to be seeking anywhere from a three-year contract to a five-year contract worth upwards of $10 or $12 million a year.
The 30-year-old Beltre would be a terrific fit for the Red Sox next season: Not only would he replace Bay as the No. 6 hitter in the lineup, but he'd allow Kevin Youkilis to play first base and give the Red Sox four Gold Glove-caliber defenders in their infield.
(The assumption here is that Youkilis is an elite defensive player at first base but, while above average, not quite at that level at third base. Part of that has to do with the fact that it's generally easier to play first base than to play third base.)
Should the Red Sox sign Beltre for three years and $39 million, just as an example, they'd lock themselves into starting him at third base -- and, thus, Youkilis at first base -- for the next three seasons. Unlike outfielder Mike Cameron -- who's signed for just two seasons, by the way -- Beltre isn't exactly going to move around defensively. He's played all of 15 innings at shortstop and second base in his 12-year major-league career. If Beltre signs a three-year deal, he's staying put for three years.
What happens if cancer survivor Anthony Rizzo tears apart Double-A this year and is beating down the door to the major leagues midway through the 2011 season? What happens if Lars Anderson rediscovers the power stroke that generated so much hype last season?
Even more likely: What happens if Adrian Gonzalez becomes available in July the way many expect him to be?
Same goes for a name like LaRoche. The first baseman was a terrific fit during his 3 1/2 hours with the Red Sox last July, slugging .526 in his 19 at-bats and looking every bit like his swing was tailor-made for Fenway Park. He would be a terrific fit in the Red Sox lineup this season.
The reason the Braves made little effort to retain him, though, is because he reportedly was looking for a three-year contract -- and thus would have blocked prized prospect Freddie Freeman, a 20-year-old who Baseball America called "Keith Hernandez and Mark Grace with more power." If LaRoche was unwilling to go back to Atlanta as a stopgap solution -- a bridge, if you will -- it's not likely he'd be willing to go back to Boston for less than three years, either.
It likewise seems hard to believe that the 34-year-old Branyan would accept a one-year deal for short money coming off the best season of his career -- at least, until the market dictactes he has to. If he can get a two- or three-year offer from someone impressed by his 31 home runs and .520 slugging percentage last season, he's going to take it.
Signing Branyan or LaRoche for three years presents you the same issue as signing Beltre for three years does: Gonzalez is going on the market. It's inevitable. It might not happen now because Jed Hoyer doesn't want to give up on his first season in San Diego before it's even started, but unless the Padres somehow are in first place in the National League West come July, Hoyer is going to start fielding offers.
If the Red Sox are obligated to pay LaRoche $8 million a year in 2011 and 2012 -- or Beltre $13 million a year in 2011 and 2012 -- what do they do with him if they're able to acquire Gonzalez? Give another player away and eat his money? Haven't they done enough of that already?
Epstein has options going forward. Gonzalez will be available on the trade market. Victor Martinez will be a free agent, an intriguing issue given the uncertainty about where he's going to play as he gets older. Anderson might develop. Rizzo might develop.
Heck, Albert Pujols is scheduled to hit the open market after the 2011 season -- and while it's a longshot he'd ever leave St. Louis, do the Red Sox really want to eliminate themselves from the Pujols sweepstakes because they're still paying Beltre $13 million a year until 2012 or 2013?
Epstein's much-discussed "bridge" doesn't mean finishing in third place for the next two seasons. It means keeping the team's options open with prospects on the way and parts moving all over the major leagues.
A two-year contract for Cameron fits that philosophy -- especially given that he easily could shift into a reserve role should Ryan Kalish or Josh Reddick be ready to take over in left field in 2011.
A three-year deal for Beltre doesn't fit that philosophy at all.
Here's the money quote again:
"We talked about this a lot at the end of the year, that we’re kind of in a bridge period. We still think that if we push some of the right buttons, we can be competitive at the very highest levels for the next two years. But we don’t want to compromise too much of the future for that competitiveness during the bridge period, but we all don’t want to sacrifice our competitiveness during the bridge just for the future. So we’re just trying to balance both those issues."
Here's what Epstein seems to be saying:
1. He has an eye on the arrival of some of his top prospects in the next couple of years, prospects that can re-infuse the Red Sox with talent.
2. He believes his team can be competitive "at the very highest levels for the next two years" without sacrificing all of that talent.
Keep in mind: Sacrificing talent doesn't mean trading talent. Sacrificing talent can mean blocking talent indefinitely -- thus all but forcing a trade. That's where Adrian Beltre comes into play -- not to mention names like Russell Branyan and Adam LaRoche that have been thrown around. The Red Sox still need a bat, or so they're saying, and Branyan, Beltre or LaRoche might be just enough to help them replace Jason Bay.
Beltre, one of the best defensive third baseman in the major leagues, has been rumored to be seeking anywhere from a three-year contract to a five-year contract worth upwards of $10 or $12 million a year.
The 30-year-old Beltre would be a terrific fit for the Red Sox next season: Not only would he replace Bay as the No. 6 hitter in the lineup, but he'd allow Kevin Youkilis to play first base and give the Red Sox four Gold Glove-caliber defenders in their infield.
(The assumption here is that Youkilis is an elite defensive player at first base but, while above average, not quite at that level at third base. Part of that has to do with the fact that it's generally easier to play first base than to play third base.)
Should the Red Sox sign Beltre for three years and $39 million, just as an example, they'd lock themselves into starting him at third base -- and, thus, Youkilis at first base -- for the next three seasons. Unlike outfielder Mike Cameron -- who's signed for just two seasons, by the way -- Beltre isn't exactly going to move around defensively. He's played all of 15 innings at shortstop and second base in his 12-year major-league career. If Beltre signs a three-year deal, he's staying put for three years.
What happens if cancer survivor Anthony Rizzo tears apart Double-A this year and is beating down the door to the major leagues midway through the 2011 season? What happens if Lars Anderson rediscovers the power stroke that generated so much hype last season?
Even more likely: What happens if Adrian Gonzalez becomes available in July the way many expect him to be?
Same goes for a name like LaRoche. The first baseman was a terrific fit during his 3 1/2 hours with the Red Sox last July, slugging .526 in his 19 at-bats and looking every bit like his swing was tailor-made for Fenway Park. He would be a terrific fit in the Red Sox lineup this season.
The reason the Braves made little effort to retain him, though, is because he reportedly was looking for a three-year contract -- and thus would have blocked prized prospect Freddie Freeman, a 20-year-old who Baseball America called "Keith Hernandez and Mark Grace with more power." If LaRoche was unwilling to go back to Atlanta as a stopgap solution -- a bridge, if you will -- it's not likely he'd be willing to go back to Boston for less than three years, either.
It likewise seems hard to believe that the 34-year-old Branyan would accept a one-year deal for short money coming off the best season of his career -- at least, until the market dictactes he has to. If he can get a two- or three-year offer from someone impressed by his 31 home runs and .520 slugging percentage last season, he's going to take it.
Signing Branyan or LaRoche for three years presents you the same issue as signing Beltre for three years does: Gonzalez is going on the market. It's inevitable. It might not happen now because Jed Hoyer doesn't want to give up on his first season in San Diego before it's even started, but unless the Padres somehow are in first place in the National League West come July, Hoyer is going to start fielding offers.
If the Red Sox are obligated to pay LaRoche $8 million a year in 2011 and 2012 -- or Beltre $13 million a year in 2011 and 2012 -- what do they do with him if they're able to acquire Gonzalez? Give another player away and eat his money? Haven't they done enough of that already?
Epstein has options going forward. Gonzalez will be available on the trade market. Victor Martinez will be a free agent, an intriguing issue given the uncertainty about where he's going to play as he gets older. Anderson might develop. Rizzo might develop.
Heck, Albert Pujols is scheduled to hit the open market after the 2011 season -- and while it's a longshot he'd ever leave St. Louis, do the Red Sox really want to eliminate themselves from the Pujols sweepstakes because they're still paying Beltre $13 million a year until 2012 or 2013?
Epstein's much-discussed "bridge" doesn't mean finishing in third place for the next two seasons. It means keeping the team's options open with prospects on the way and parts moving all over the major leagues.
A two-year contract for Cameron fits that philosophy -- especially given that he easily could shift into a reserve role should Ryan Kalish or Josh Reddick be ready to take over in left field in 2011.
A three-year deal for Beltre doesn't fit that philosophy at all.
Sunday, December 27, 2009
Jacoby Ellsbury really is expendable
"You can never have enough center fielders."
-- Theo Epstein
The Red Sox general manager, about to enter his eighth season, has made it a focus to accumulate as much up-the-middle talent as he can. His captain has been his catcher (Jason Varitek). His first major trade was for a shortstop (Orlando Cabrera). His first impact rookie was a second baseman (Dustin Pedroia). His first out-of-nowhere World Series hero was a center fielder (Jacoby Ellsbury). His first major trade -- even though it was made in his absence -- was built around a shortstop (Hanley Ramirez).
And of the top 15 position-player prospects in the organization, according to SoxProspects.com, 12 play either catcher, shortstop, second base or center field. Five of the team's top 14 prospects, in fact, look like they'll have the ability to play center field in the major leagues: Reymond Fuentes, Ryan Kalish, Che-Hsuan Lin, Josh Reddick, and Ryan Westmoreland.
(Reddick is the most borderline. His future likely is in right field or left field. SoxProspects, though, specifically points out that "Reddick has the range to be a full time major league center fielder.")
That's what makes today's note from the Chicago Tribune's Phil Rogers so interesting:
Worth watching: If the Red Sox wind up with Matt Holliday or Jason Bay, the Cubs immediately would make a major effort to land Jacoby Ellsbury to fill their center field/leadoff hole, according to sources. That scenario helps explain why the Cubs have been so patient in studying their options. The best way to do such a trade might be for GM Jim Hendry to facilitate a three-team deal that sends first baseman Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres to the Red Sox by packaging a group of prospects, possibly including one or two of their top ones, such as third baseman Josh Vitters, shortstop Hak-Ju Lee and pitchers Andrew Cashner and Jay Jackson.
Ellsbury, of course, already has been associated with the Gonzalez trade rumors this winter. Proponents of including Ellsbury in a package generally have focused on his subpar defensive numbers, according to advanced metrics, and his relatively low on-base percentage at the top of the Red Sox lineup.
There's an even better reason for the Red Sox to look hard at moving Ellsbury if it means a big upgrade elsewhere -- especially if that upgrade is Gonzalez.
Epstein has made Ellsbury expendable.
The reason Ellsbury is so valuable is because he can produce so much while earning so little. He won't even be eligible for salary arbitration until next season, and his team then still will have three years' worth of control of his rights until he hits the open market. Even those who believe Ellsbury has become overrated can't deny that his production far outweighs his salary -- and will do so at least until he hits his second year of arbitration.
That's reason enough to hang onto him unless there's a player behind him ready to fill in with similar production at a similarly low salary -- and, thus, similar bang for the buck. The Red Sox have a half-dozen players in their minor-league system with the potential to do just that.
No, none of them are ready yet. Reddick is closest by virtue of his major-league experience last season. Kalish likely will make his major-league debut at some point next season. But it's not unreasonable to imagine the Red Sox opening the 2010 season with Mike Cameron in center field and Kalish and Reddick both waiting in the wings. Fuentes, Lin and Westmoreland all are 21 years old or younger, but all three could come along within the next three or four years.
There's no reason to hoard so much young talent it doesn't fit on the major-league roster. Kalish and Reddick won't do the Red Sox any good if they're tearing apart the International League.
(This, of course, assumes they'll tear apart the International League. You can't ever make that assumption with individual prospects. The odds that both Kalish and Reddick flop, though, seem pretty minimal.)
The Red Sox can get more in a trade for Ellsbury than they can for Kalish or Reddick simply because Ellsbury already has demonstrated he can hold his own at the major-league level. Trading Ellsbury, however, would have left the Red Sox with a void in center field if not for the signing of Cameron -- a bridge, if you will, to the prospects who seem to be on the way.
If the Cubs are willing to offer the Red Sox enough in the way of prospects for Ellsbury that the Padres don't insist on Clay Buchholz in a trade for Gonzalez, that's a move the Red Sox should make without hesitating.
-- Theo Epstein
The Red Sox general manager, about to enter his eighth season, has made it a focus to accumulate as much up-the-middle talent as he can. His captain has been his catcher (Jason Varitek). His first major trade was for a shortstop (Orlando Cabrera). His first impact rookie was a second baseman (Dustin Pedroia). His first out-of-nowhere World Series hero was a center fielder (Jacoby Ellsbury). His first major trade -- even though it was made in his absence -- was built around a shortstop (Hanley Ramirez).
And of the top 15 position-player prospects in the organization, according to SoxProspects.com, 12 play either catcher, shortstop, second base or center field. Five of the team's top 14 prospects, in fact, look like they'll have the ability to play center field in the major leagues: Reymond Fuentes, Ryan Kalish, Che-Hsuan Lin, Josh Reddick, and Ryan Westmoreland.
(Reddick is the most borderline. His future likely is in right field or left field. SoxProspects, though, specifically points out that "Reddick has the range to be a full time major league center fielder.")
That's what makes today's note from the Chicago Tribune's Phil Rogers so interesting:
Worth watching: If the Red Sox wind up with Matt Holliday or Jason Bay, the Cubs immediately would make a major effort to land Jacoby Ellsbury to fill their center field/leadoff hole, according to sources. That scenario helps explain why the Cubs have been so patient in studying their options. The best way to do such a trade might be for GM Jim Hendry to facilitate a three-team deal that sends first baseman Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres to the Red Sox by packaging a group of prospects, possibly including one or two of their top ones, such as third baseman Josh Vitters, shortstop Hak-Ju Lee and pitchers Andrew Cashner and Jay Jackson.
Ellsbury, of course, already has been associated with the Gonzalez trade rumors this winter. Proponents of including Ellsbury in a package generally have focused on his subpar defensive numbers, according to advanced metrics, and his relatively low on-base percentage at the top of the Red Sox lineup.
There's an even better reason for the Red Sox to look hard at moving Ellsbury if it means a big upgrade elsewhere -- especially if that upgrade is Gonzalez.
Epstein has made Ellsbury expendable.
The reason Ellsbury is so valuable is because he can produce so much while earning so little. He won't even be eligible for salary arbitration until next season, and his team then still will have three years' worth of control of his rights until he hits the open market. Even those who believe Ellsbury has become overrated can't deny that his production far outweighs his salary -- and will do so at least until he hits his second year of arbitration.
That's reason enough to hang onto him unless there's a player behind him ready to fill in with similar production at a similarly low salary -- and, thus, similar bang for the buck. The Red Sox have a half-dozen players in their minor-league system with the potential to do just that.
No, none of them are ready yet. Reddick is closest by virtue of his major-league experience last season. Kalish likely will make his major-league debut at some point next season. But it's not unreasonable to imagine the Red Sox opening the 2010 season with Mike Cameron in center field and Kalish and Reddick both waiting in the wings. Fuentes, Lin and Westmoreland all are 21 years old or younger, but all three could come along within the next three or four years.
There's no reason to hoard so much young talent it doesn't fit on the major-league roster. Kalish and Reddick won't do the Red Sox any good if they're tearing apart the International League.
(This, of course, assumes they'll tear apart the International League. You can't ever make that assumption with individual prospects. The odds that both Kalish and Reddick flop, though, seem pretty minimal.)
The Red Sox can get more in a trade for Ellsbury than they can for Kalish or Reddick simply because Ellsbury already has demonstrated he can hold his own at the major-league level. Trading Ellsbury, however, would have left the Red Sox with a void in center field if not for the signing of Cameron -- a bridge, if you will, to the prospects who seem to be on the way.
If the Cubs are willing to offer the Red Sox enough in the way of prospects for Ellsbury that the Padres don't insist on Clay Buchholz in a trade for Gonzalez, that's a move the Red Sox should make without hesitating.
Friday, October 23, 2009
Jed Hoyer and Adrian Gonzalez
With it all but official that Jed Hoyer will make the move to San Diego, the question immediately arises: Will the Padres' new general manager use his best trading chip to restock what Baseball America ranked as the second-worst collection of talent in the major leagues -- and will the farm system he used to supervise be the farm system he targets?
Yes, he will. It makes too much sense for him not to.
The Red Sox and Padres already were a natural fit for an Adrian Gonzalez trade this winter. Gonzalez is under contract through 2011 -- assuming his team exercises a bargain-basement $5.6 million option -- and ranked 10th in the major leagues in Wins Above Replacement, a Baseball Prospectus statistic that takes into consideration both hitting and fielding. Albert Pujols is the only first baseman in the game with a signficantly better WAR number than Gonzalez.
Bill Smith -- a New Hampshire native, by the way -- had to trade Johan Santana immediately upon taking over the job of general manager with the Minnesota Twins two years ago. Hoyer, in much the same way, will have to make trading Gonzalez his first order of business.
No, trading your best player doesn't seem like the best way for a struggling team to get back into contention -- and it certainly doesn't seem like the best way for a new general manager to ingratiate himself with his new fan base.
But the Padres aren't exactly close to competing. Jake Peavy has been traded away. Kevin Correia might be the team's Opening Day starting pitcher. Kevin Kouzmanoff's 18 home runs were second-best on the team behind Gonzalez. Chase Headley was the only other hitter with an OPS+ better than 100 -- in other words, he was the only other above-average hitter to get to the plate more than 350 times this season.
Funny thing: The team's top prospect, 23-year-old slugger Kyle Blanks, posted the following numbers on his climb up the ladder:
Single-A (adv.): .301 batting/.380 on-base/.540 slugging
Double-A: .325 batting/.404 on-base/.514 slugging
Triple-A: .283 batting/.393 on-base/.485 slugging
Oh, and he's a first baseman.
You'd better believe that if it wasn't part of the conversation during the farewell lunch, Hoyer left behind a note for Theo Epstein describing exactly the type of package it would take to pry Gonzalez away from him.
Epstein, tangentially, has a couple of choices this offseason:
1. He can stand pat and hope his team still is good enough to compete with the Rays and Yankees, essentially punting a season but conserving his resources until after he's out from under the contracts of Mike Lowell and David Ortiz.
2. He can reload and go for it again.
A move for Gonzalez, particularly if it didn't cost the Red Sox prized starting pitcher Clay Buchholz, would match last winter's Mark Teixeira signing by the Yankees and, particularly if Jason Bay was persuaded to re-sign, give the Red Sox a lineup every bit as ferocious as the lineup in the Bronx -- with OPS+ numbers from 2009:
1. Ellsbury, CF (L) -- 96
2. Pedroia, 2B (R) -- 108
3. Martinez, C (S) -- 121
4. Youkilis, 3B (R) -- 143
5. Ad. Gonzalez, 1B (L) -- 163
6. Bay, LF (R) -- 132
7. Drew, RF (L) -- 131
8. Ortiz/Lowell, DH (L/R) -- 100/104
9. Al. Gonzalez/Lowrie, SS (R/S) -- Who cares?
Gonzalez even is a full two years younger than Teixeira and thus would be a better bet for the type of lucrative long-term deal he'll command when he hits the open market after the 2011 season.
He'd immediately make the Red Sox lineup both younger and, well, better -- both at Fenway Park and on the road. He'd allow Epstein to check off pretty much the only item on his offseason to-do list other than maybe sign a veteran starting pitcher on the cheap to provide insurance for Tim Wakefield.
All it would cost would be the jewels of the Red Sox farm system.
Casey Kelly would have to be included. Ryan Westmoreland would have to be included. Josh Reddick would have to be included. Ryan Kalish would have to be included. Daniel Bard might even have to be included -- something you'd think the Red Sox would do if they don't see him as a starting pitcher in the future.
That's a deal both the Padres and the Red Sox would make.
1. The Red Sox would make that deal because their resources allow them to focus perpetually on the short term. Neither Kelly nor Westmoreland, easily the team's two top prospects, are going to be factors in the major leagues until 2012 even if they started next season at Double-A and spent just one season at each level of the minor-league ladder. Rather than waiting for Kelly, for example, the Red Sox could trade him away and throw truckloads of money at Felix Hernandez when he hits the free-agent market after the 2011 season at the ripe old age of 25.
(And because of the resources they devote to the draft, the Red Sox can focus on ready-for-prime-time talent next June, no matter how expensive, in an effort to restock the shelves in time for 2012 or 2013.)
2. The Padres would make that deal because they're not going to compete without restocking their farm system -- and they're far enough away that they don't need prospects who are almost ready for the major leagues.
Consider the Bartolo Colon trade from back in 2002. The Indians, whose run of dominance in the American League Central seemed to have come to an end, traded Colon to the Montreal Expos, a team in danger of imminent contraction and thus a team with a desperation to win right away, sent back a package that included journeyman major leaguer Lee Stevens and three prospects:
* 23-year-old pitcher Cliff Lee had spent most of the season at Double-A and had just made his major-league debut. He wouldn't make 30 starts in the major leagues for the first time until 2004 but would win a Cy Young Award in 2008.
* 21-year-old infielder Brandon Phillips had just been promoted to Triple-A and actually would spend the next three seasons in Triple-A before the Indians tired of him and shipped him off to Cincinnati -- where he hit 30 home runs in 2007.
* 19-year-old outfielder Grady Sizemore split his season between Single-A Brevard County and Single-A Kinston, and he didn't even make an appearance in Double-A until the following season. He made his first All-Star team in 2006 -- four years after the trade.
Bad teams, as we've again learned with the news that Steve Phillips once offered a 19-year-old David Wright to Toronto for Jose Cruz Jr., can improve themselves by swapping established players for teenagers. The Indians lost 94 games in 2003 but won 93 games in 2005 and came within one win of the World Series in 2007 -- and every single one of their fans would do the Colon trade all over again if given a chance.
Hoyer isn't going to go all out to win next season or even the season after that -- and, by then, Gonzalez likely will be gone. Hoyer has a massive rebuilding project on his hands, and it's not a rebuilding project in which Gonzalez can assist.
If Hoyer could trade for a pitcher in his early 20s with an electric arm (Bard) and an outfielder in his teens with breathtaking athleticism (Westmoreland) and add Kalish or Kelly or Reddick to the package, he'd be doing himself a favor.
And if the Red Sox could trade for a lefthanded power hitter who's still three years shy of his 30th birthday, they'd be setting themselves up for another run at the World Series both next season and the season after that.
A team with their resources doesn't need to think too much farther down the road than that.
Yes, he will. It makes too much sense for him not to.
The Red Sox and Padres already were a natural fit for an Adrian Gonzalez trade this winter. Gonzalez is under contract through 2011 -- assuming his team exercises a bargain-basement $5.6 million option -- and ranked 10th in the major leagues in Wins Above Replacement, a Baseball Prospectus statistic that takes into consideration both hitting and fielding. Albert Pujols is the only first baseman in the game with a signficantly better WAR number than Gonzalez.
Bill Smith -- a New Hampshire native, by the way -- had to trade Johan Santana immediately upon taking over the job of general manager with the Minnesota Twins two years ago. Hoyer, in much the same way, will have to make trading Gonzalez his first order of business.
No, trading your best player doesn't seem like the best way for a struggling team to get back into contention -- and it certainly doesn't seem like the best way for a new general manager to ingratiate himself with his new fan base.
But the Padres aren't exactly close to competing. Jake Peavy has been traded away. Kevin Correia might be the team's Opening Day starting pitcher. Kevin Kouzmanoff's 18 home runs were second-best on the team behind Gonzalez. Chase Headley was the only other hitter with an OPS+ better than 100 -- in other words, he was the only other above-average hitter to get to the plate more than 350 times this season.
Funny thing: The team's top prospect, 23-year-old slugger Kyle Blanks, posted the following numbers on his climb up the ladder:
Single-A (adv.): .301 batting/.380 on-base/.540 slugging
Double-A: .325 batting/.404 on-base/.514 slugging
Triple-A: .283 batting/.393 on-base/.485 slugging
Oh, and he's a first baseman.
You'd better believe that if it wasn't part of the conversation during the farewell lunch, Hoyer left behind a note for Theo Epstein describing exactly the type of package it would take to pry Gonzalez away from him.
Epstein, tangentially, has a couple of choices this offseason:
1. He can stand pat and hope his team still is good enough to compete with the Rays and Yankees, essentially punting a season but conserving his resources until after he's out from under the contracts of Mike Lowell and David Ortiz.
2. He can reload and go for it again.
A move for Gonzalez, particularly if it didn't cost the Red Sox prized starting pitcher Clay Buchholz, would match last winter's Mark Teixeira signing by the Yankees and, particularly if Jason Bay was persuaded to re-sign, give the Red Sox a lineup every bit as ferocious as the lineup in the Bronx -- with OPS+ numbers from 2009:
1. Ellsbury, CF (L) -- 96
2. Pedroia, 2B (R) -- 108
3. Martinez, C (S) -- 121
4. Youkilis, 3B (R) -- 143
5. Ad. Gonzalez, 1B (L) -- 163
6. Bay, LF (R) -- 132
7. Drew, RF (L) -- 131
8. Ortiz/Lowell, DH (L/R) -- 100/104
9. Al. Gonzalez/Lowrie, SS (R/S) -- Who cares?
Gonzalez even is a full two years younger than Teixeira and thus would be a better bet for the type of lucrative long-term deal he'll command when he hits the open market after the 2011 season.
He'd immediately make the Red Sox lineup both younger and, well, better -- both at Fenway Park and on the road. He'd allow Epstein to check off pretty much the only item on his offseason to-do list other than maybe sign a veteran starting pitcher on the cheap to provide insurance for Tim Wakefield.
All it would cost would be the jewels of the Red Sox farm system.
Casey Kelly would have to be included. Ryan Westmoreland would have to be included. Josh Reddick would have to be included. Ryan Kalish would have to be included. Daniel Bard might even have to be included -- something you'd think the Red Sox would do if they don't see him as a starting pitcher in the future.
That's a deal both the Padres and the Red Sox would make.
1. The Red Sox would make that deal because their resources allow them to focus perpetually on the short term. Neither Kelly nor Westmoreland, easily the team's two top prospects, are going to be factors in the major leagues until 2012 even if they started next season at Double-A and spent just one season at each level of the minor-league ladder. Rather than waiting for Kelly, for example, the Red Sox could trade him away and throw truckloads of money at Felix Hernandez when he hits the free-agent market after the 2011 season at the ripe old age of 25.
(And because of the resources they devote to the draft, the Red Sox can focus on ready-for-prime-time talent next June, no matter how expensive, in an effort to restock the shelves in time for 2012 or 2013.)
2. The Padres would make that deal because they're not going to compete without restocking their farm system -- and they're far enough away that they don't need prospects who are almost ready for the major leagues.
Consider the Bartolo Colon trade from back in 2002. The Indians, whose run of dominance in the American League Central seemed to have come to an end, traded Colon to the Montreal Expos, a team in danger of imminent contraction and thus a team with a desperation to win right away, sent back a package that included journeyman major leaguer Lee Stevens and three prospects:
* 23-year-old pitcher Cliff Lee had spent most of the season at Double-A and had just made his major-league debut. He wouldn't make 30 starts in the major leagues for the first time until 2004 but would win a Cy Young Award in 2008.
* 21-year-old infielder Brandon Phillips had just been promoted to Triple-A and actually would spend the next three seasons in Triple-A before the Indians tired of him and shipped him off to Cincinnati -- where he hit 30 home runs in 2007.
* 19-year-old outfielder Grady Sizemore split his season between Single-A Brevard County and Single-A Kinston, and he didn't even make an appearance in Double-A until the following season. He made his first All-Star team in 2006 -- four years after the trade.
Bad teams, as we've again learned with the news that Steve Phillips once offered a 19-year-old David Wright to Toronto for Jose Cruz Jr., can improve themselves by swapping established players for teenagers. The Indians lost 94 games in 2003 but won 93 games in 2005 and came within one win of the World Series in 2007 -- and every single one of their fans would do the Colon trade all over again if given a chance.
Hoyer isn't going to go all out to win next season or even the season after that -- and, by then, Gonzalez likely will be gone. Hoyer has a massive rebuilding project on his hands, and it's not a rebuilding project in which Gonzalez can assist.
If Hoyer could trade for a pitcher in his early 20s with an electric arm (Bard) and an outfielder in his teens with breathtaking athleticism (Westmoreland) and add Kalish or Kelly or Reddick to the package, he'd be doing himself a favor.
And if the Red Sox could trade for a lefthanded power hitter who's still three years shy of his 30th birthday, they'd be setting themselves up for another run at the World Series both next season and the season after that.
A team with their resources doesn't need to think too much farther down the road than that.
Monday, October 12, 2009
Orders of business in the offseason
After a day or two to relax and recoup and process a stunningly swift exit to the postseason, Theo Epstein and his band of decision-makers will have to sit down and attend to the orders of business waiting for them in the offseason. This team, as constituted, never quite seemed like the World Series juggernaut of two years ago and likely would have bowed out at the hands of the Yankees had they pulled a miracle comeback a la 1999 or 2003.
(Hey, wait a second, that's what happened in 1999 and 2003.)
A few items on the agenda are more pressing than others. A few items are on the agenda require less debate than others. Among those items -- presented in some semblance of order:
1. Pick up Victor Martinez's option.
Epstein doesn't even have to discuss this one with his staff. He might already have taken care of this, one last thing to do before heading home on Sunday night. The catcher hit .336/.405/.507 in his two months with the Red Sox and is a .299/.372/.465 career hitter -- and his $7.5 million option for next season is barely half of what Jorge Posada will make.
Oh, and for those fans who want passion in their players: Not even Jonathan Papelbon sat at his locker with his uniform on, unable to get past the loss, longer than Martinez.
2. Offer Billy Wagner arbitration.
Done and done. The veteran closer almost certainly will not accept and instead will be off to Atlanta or Chicago or some other locale in need of a closer. Pass "Go." Collect two draft picks.
3. Figure out the Jason Bay situation
You can analyze it all you want -- and the analysis has already started -- but the truth of the matter is this: The Red Sox will place a value on Bay's services relative to what they expect him to be worth at the plate and in the field for the next four or five years, a value that probably will be close to the five years, $70 million for which they signed J.D. Drew. Bay then will shop around -- "I'm a little bit interested in going through the whole process, seeing what it's like and seeing what's out there," he said -- and if he gets an offer significantly better than that, he'll probably take it.
The Red Sox then will have to make a relatively aggressive offer to Matt Holliday -- whose HitTrackerOnline chart makes it look like he would love Fenway Park -- or, failing in that pursuit, probably settle for a one-year stopgap like Bobby Abreu or Mike Cameron with either Josh Reddick or Ryan Kalish taking aim at that job in 2011.
4. Make a decision on Alex Gonzalez
This isn't as important as the Jason Bay decision -- even with as much as credit as Gonzalez deserves, the Red Sox almost certainly would have made the playoffs had they stood pat at shortstop in August. But it is an easy call: He has a $6 million club option for next season, and given the uncertainty surrounding the wrist of Jed Lowrie, the Red Sox will snap that option right up. Lowrie has insisted that with a full winter of rest, his surgically repaired wrist should be fine in April -- but if that's the case, he could play shortstop part-time and third base part-time and be ready to take over the job all by himself in 2011 after he's demonstrated he's healthy.
5. Make a decision on Tim Wakefield
The knuckleballer will undergo surgery this week to repair a herniated disk in his back. The Red Sox still hold a perpetual $4 million option on his services -- and it still was a bargain this season even though Wakefield missed most of the second half.
The decision really will be up to Wakefield and how his back might feel about playing golf once a week rather than pitching once a week. If it was up to them, the Red Sox would exercise the option and go to spring training with the knuckleballer penciled in as their No. 5 starter -- a good omen if you believe in The Wakefield Theory -- because you can never have too much pitching.
(The Wakefield Theory holds that the Red Sox can tell how good they'll be in a given season simply based on where Wakefield stands in the rotation. He was the No. 2 starter in 1997. He was the No. 3 starter in 2003. He was the No. 4 starter in 2004. He was the No. 4 starter in 2007. He went into this season as the No. 4 starter but quickly became the No. 3 starter, the first sign the Red Sox might not be up to the task.)
6. Make a decision on Takashi Saito
The Red Sox signed Saito to an incentive-laden deal that ultimately will pay him $6 million this season, and that means they hold a $6 million option on him for next season.
On the one hand, that seems a little steep for a pitcher who never seemed to pitch in any high-leverage situations except as a last resort. On the other hand, the Red Sox probably can afford it -- and, again, you can never have too much pitching.
7. Make a decision on Daniel Bard
If the Red Sox were willing to try to make Jonathan Papelbon a starting pitcher even after a rookie season in which he had a 0.92 ERA in 59 relief appearances, you'd better believe they're going to explore the possibility of making Bard a starting pitcher, too. He has the build. He has the velocity -- if he throws 100 miles an hour as a reliever, he's still probably going to throw 94 or 95 as a starter. He has the even-keeled mindset.
He has the understanding, too, that he's better off as a starter than as a middle reliever.
Maybe he'll end up right back in the bullpen the way Papelbon did. But it's certainly worth it for the Red Sox to have that discussion.
8. Make a decision on Casey Kotchman
The Red Sox swapped the power-hitting Adam LaRoche for the defensive-minded Casey Kotchman because Kotchman fit better as a bench player. Kotchman, though, is still 26 years old and not all that far removed from being considered one of the top prospects in baseball. The Red Sox have a history -- remember Dave Roberts? -- of acquiring bench players for the stretch run but accomodating their wishes to be a starter elsewhere after that.
Kotchman is young and relatively cheap and carries with him an impressive glove, and that might have value in trade to one of the few teams in the market for a first baseman this winter.
(This issue has been covered in more depth here.)
9. Go check out the market
Chone Figgins. Marco Scutaro. Roy Halladay. John Lackey. Bobby Abreu. Prince Fielder. Felix Hernandez. Adrian Gonzalez.
All are names you're likely to see bandied about in Boston this winter. All are players who might be good fits with the Red Sox at the right price.
10. Restock the bench
If the Red Sox bring back Gonzalez and Kotchman, they're likely all set along the infield. But Rocco Baldelli signed a one-year contract, and it'll be interesting to see if he tests the market, even with his mitochondrial condition, to try to find a job with more regular playing time. If that's the case, the Red Sox will have to find another outfielder or two to provide some depth.
(Hey, wait a second, that's what happened in 1999 and 2003.)
A few items on the agenda are more pressing than others. A few items are on the agenda require less debate than others. Among those items -- presented in some semblance of order:
1. Pick up Victor Martinez's option.
Epstein doesn't even have to discuss this one with his staff. He might already have taken care of this, one last thing to do before heading home on Sunday night. The catcher hit .336/.405/.507 in his two months with the Red Sox and is a .299/.372/.465 career hitter -- and his $7.5 million option for next season is barely half of what Jorge Posada will make.
Oh, and for those fans who want passion in their players: Not even Jonathan Papelbon sat at his locker with his uniform on, unable to get past the loss, longer than Martinez.
2. Offer Billy Wagner arbitration.
Done and done. The veteran closer almost certainly will not accept and instead will be off to Atlanta or Chicago or some other locale in need of a closer. Pass "Go." Collect two draft picks.
3. Figure out the Jason Bay situation
You can analyze it all you want -- and the analysis has already started -- but the truth of the matter is this: The Red Sox will place a value on Bay's services relative to what they expect him to be worth at the plate and in the field for the next four or five years, a value that probably will be close to the five years, $70 million for which they signed J.D. Drew. Bay then will shop around -- "I'm a little bit interested in going through the whole process, seeing what it's like and seeing what's out there," he said -- and if he gets an offer significantly better than that, he'll probably take it.
The Red Sox then will have to make a relatively aggressive offer to Matt Holliday -- whose HitTrackerOnline chart makes it look like he would love Fenway Park -- or, failing in that pursuit, probably settle for a one-year stopgap like Bobby Abreu or Mike Cameron with either Josh Reddick or Ryan Kalish taking aim at that job in 2011.
4. Make a decision on Alex Gonzalez
This isn't as important as the Jason Bay decision -- even with as much as credit as Gonzalez deserves, the Red Sox almost certainly would have made the playoffs had they stood pat at shortstop in August. But it is an easy call: He has a $6 million club option for next season, and given the uncertainty surrounding the wrist of Jed Lowrie, the Red Sox will snap that option right up. Lowrie has insisted that with a full winter of rest, his surgically repaired wrist should be fine in April -- but if that's the case, he could play shortstop part-time and third base part-time and be ready to take over the job all by himself in 2011 after he's demonstrated he's healthy.
5. Make a decision on Tim Wakefield
The knuckleballer will undergo surgery this week to repair a herniated disk in his back. The Red Sox still hold a perpetual $4 million option on his services -- and it still was a bargain this season even though Wakefield missed most of the second half.
The decision really will be up to Wakefield and how his back might feel about playing golf once a week rather than pitching once a week. If it was up to them, the Red Sox would exercise the option and go to spring training with the knuckleballer penciled in as their No. 5 starter -- a good omen if you believe in The Wakefield Theory -- because you can never have too much pitching.
(The Wakefield Theory holds that the Red Sox can tell how good they'll be in a given season simply based on where Wakefield stands in the rotation. He was the No. 2 starter in 1997. He was the No. 3 starter in 2003. He was the No. 4 starter in 2004. He was the No. 4 starter in 2007. He went into this season as the No. 4 starter but quickly became the No. 3 starter, the first sign the Red Sox might not be up to the task.)
6. Make a decision on Takashi Saito
The Red Sox signed Saito to an incentive-laden deal that ultimately will pay him $6 million this season, and that means they hold a $6 million option on him for next season.
On the one hand, that seems a little steep for a pitcher who never seemed to pitch in any high-leverage situations except as a last resort. On the other hand, the Red Sox probably can afford it -- and, again, you can never have too much pitching.
7. Make a decision on Daniel Bard
If the Red Sox were willing to try to make Jonathan Papelbon a starting pitcher even after a rookie season in which he had a 0.92 ERA in 59 relief appearances, you'd better believe they're going to explore the possibility of making Bard a starting pitcher, too. He has the build. He has the velocity -- if he throws 100 miles an hour as a reliever, he's still probably going to throw 94 or 95 as a starter. He has the even-keeled mindset.
He has the understanding, too, that he's better off as a starter than as a middle reliever.
Maybe he'll end up right back in the bullpen the way Papelbon did. But it's certainly worth it for the Red Sox to have that discussion.
8. Make a decision on Casey Kotchman
The Red Sox swapped the power-hitting Adam LaRoche for the defensive-minded Casey Kotchman because Kotchman fit better as a bench player. Kotchman, though, is still 26 years old and not all that far removed from being considered one of the top prospects in baseball. The Red Sox have a history -- remember Dave Roberts? -- of acquiring bench players for the stretch run but accomodating their wishes to be a starter elsewhere after that.
Kotchman is young and relatively cheap and carries with him an impressive glove, and that might have value in trade to one of the few teams in the market for a first baseman this winter.
(This issue has been covered in more depth here.)
9. Go check out the market
Chone Figgins. Marco Scutaro. Roy Halladay. John Lackey. Bobby Abreu. Prince Fielder. Felix Hernandez. Adrian Gonzalez.
All are names you're likely to see bandied about in Boston this winter. All are players who might be good fits with the Red Sox at the right price.
10. Restock the bench
If the Red Sox bring back Gonzalez and Kotchman, they're likely all set along the infield. But Rocco Baldelli signed a one-year contract, and it'll be interesting to see if he tests the market, even with his mitochondrial condition, to try to find a job with more regular playing time. If that's the case, the Red Sox will have to find another outfielder or two to provide some depth.
Saturday, October 3, 2009
Runs on a rate basis
The story of Theo Epstein's J.D. Drew rant is making the rounds this week -- and Joe Posnanski, perhaps the best baseball writer out there today, offered his take today on why the arguments Epstein made in defense of Drew make him wish Epstein was the general manager of his team.
Among the highlights that Posnanski pulled out:
"Based on his skill set, he’s always going to have underwhelming RBI totals," Epstein said. "I couldn’t care less. When you’re putting together a winning team, that honestly doesn’t matter. When you have a player who takes a ton of walks, who doesn’t put the ball in play at an above average rate, and is a certain type of hitter, he’s not going to drive in a lot of runs. Runs scored, you couldn’t be more wrong. If you look at a rate basis, J.D. scores a ton of runs.
“And the reason he scores a ton of runs is because he does the single most important thing you can do in baseball as an offensive player. And that’s not make outs. He doesn’t make outs. He’s always among our team leaders in on-base percentage, usually among the league leaders in on-base percentage. And he’s a really good baserunner. So when he doesn’t make outs, and he gets himself on base, he scores runs — and he has some good hitters hitting behind him. Look at his runs scored on a rate basis with the Red Sox or throughout his career. It’s outstanding."
Well, that's interesting. Runs scored on a rate basis.
Most forward-thinking baseball writers now are trying to advance the idea of measuring everything on a rate basis. Home-run totals don't matter nearly as much as home-run rates, for example: If a guy hits 20 home runs in 400 plate appearances and another hits 25 home runs in 600 plate appearances, who's the better home-run hitter? It seems obvious -- and, yet, many will look just at the 20 and the 25 and draw their conclusions that way.
Runs scored and runs batted in fall into that category. There's something magical about triple digits in both of those categories -- and J.D. Drew has scored 100 runs or driven in 100 runs just twice, total, in his entire career. He scored 118 runs with the Braves in 2004, and he drove in exactly 100 runs with the Dodgers in 2006, the year before he opted out of his contract.
Epstein, though, is talking about a rate basis. He didn't exactly elaborate or go into specifics the way he did with Drew's OPS numbers -- the right fielder has the second-best OPS among everyday outfielders in the American League this season, he said -- but he emphasized the idea that Drew produces runs consistently on a rate basis.
What does that even mean?
You have to start with the basics. Two things need to happen for a player to score a run: He has to get on base, and he has to advance around the bases. Unless he hits a home run, both of those things don't happen at the same time. Most often, a player scores because another player puts the ball in play, but as Jacoby Ellsbury demonstrated in the first inning on Friday, another player doesn't even have to swing the bat. Speed and base-running savvy, of course, come into play quite a bit.
If you want to look at it the old-fashioned way, Drew ranks 65th in the American League in runs scored, tied with Placido Polanco and Casey Blake. That doesn't seem like much.
But what if we look at runs on a rate basis?
Let's divide runs by plate appearances. That seems easy.
R/PA Leaders
1. Albert Pujols, .180
2. Johnny Damon, .182
3. Kevin Youkilis, .169
4. Raul Ibanez, .166
5. Chase Utley, .164
(skipping ahead)
7. Jason Bay, .161
13. Dustin Pedroia, .159
18. Joe Mauer, .154
19. Hanley Ramirez, .154
20. J.D. Drew, .153
(A tip of the cap to FanGraphs.com for the easily formatted and calculated stats.)
Well, then. That's interesting. Drew just jumped from 66th to 20th (out of 154 players who have qualified for the batting title) and is right in there with two players who will or could win their league's respective MVP awards this year.
What's even more interesting is that Drew has done that while primarily hitting in the bottom half of the Red Sox order. He's just a tick behind Dustin Pedroia -- he's closer to Pedroia than Pedroia is to Youkilis. He hasn't had Youkilis or Bay or Mike Lowell there to drive him in. He's usually hitting in front of Jason Varitek and either Nick Green or Alex Gonzalez, and those guys aren't exactly extra-base-hit machines.
But he's still scoring 15 percent of the time he comes to the plate -- and scoring at almost the same rate as Mauer, a player who hits right in the middle of the Minnesota Twins' lineup.
Let's go back a couple of seasons and run the same formula.
In 2008, Drew had just 456 plate appearances because of injury and scored just 79 runs, which ranked him in a tie for 77th in the major leagues.
But here are the R/PA leaders in 2008:
1. Hanley Ramirez, .180
2. Curtis Granderson, .178
3. Alex Rodriguez, .175
4. Ian Kinsler, .175
5. Mark DeRosa, .174
6. J.D. Drew, .173
13. Jason Bay, .166
17. Dustin Pedroia, .163
18. Jacoby Ellsbury, .161
That's even more interesting. Sixth-best in the majors.
If we go back further, the somewhat disappointing regular season Drew had in 2007 is born out in his R/PA numbers: He ranks 40th in the major leagues at .152, scoring just 84 runs in 552 plate appearances. In 2006, his final year with the Dodgers, Drew ranked 70th in the major leagues in R/PA.
But if we go back and look at 2004, the year he scored a career-best 118 runs hitting in front of future Hall of Famer Chipper Jones, we come up with this R/PA leaderboard:
1. Barry Bonds, .209
2. Albert Pujols, .192
3. Scott Rolen, .184
4. J.D. Drew, .183
5. Vladimir Guerrero, .182
For his career, Drew has a R/PA rate of .160 -- .1598, to be exact -- which means he's scoring a run 16 percent of the time he comes to the plate.
For the sake of comparison, Jason Bay has a career R/PA rate of .149 -- .1485, actually -- but is generally considered by Red Sox fans to be a far superior offensive player.
It's not always about raw numbers.
If you look at the number of runs he generates as a percentage of plate appearances, well, he's right up there among the best in the game.
Among the highlights that Posnanski pulled out:
"Based on his skill set, he’s always going to have underwhelming RBI totals," Epstein said. "I couldn’t care less. When you’re putting together a winning team, that honestly doesn’t matter. When you have a player who takes a ton of walks, who doesn’t put the ball in play at an above average rate, and is a certain type of hitter, he’s not going to drive in a lot of runs. Runs scored, you couldn’t be more wrong. If you look at a rate basis, J.D. scores a ton of runs.
“And the reason he scores a ton of runs is because he does the single most important thing you can do in baseball as an offensive player. And that’s not make outs. He doesn’t make outs. He’s always among our team leaders in on-base percentage, usually among the league leaders in on-base percentage. And he’s a really good baserunner. So when he doesn’t make outs, and he gets himself on base, he scores runs — and he has some good hitters hitting behind him. Look at his runs scored on a rate basis with the Red Sox or throughout his career. It’s outstanding."
Well, that's interesting. Runs scored on a rate basis.
Most forward-thinking baseball writers now are trying to advance the idea of measuring everything on a rate basis. Home-run totals don't matter nearly as much as home-run rates, for example: If a guy hits 20 home runs in 400 plate appearances and another hits 25 home runs in 600 plate appearances, who's the better home-run hitter? It seems obvious -- and, yet, many will look just at the 20 and the 25 and draw their conclusions that way.
Runs scored and runs batted in fall into that category. There's something magical about triple digits in both of those categories -- and J.D. Drew has scored 100 runs or driven in 100 runs just twice, total, in his entire career. He scored 118 runs with the Braves in 2004, and he drove in exactly 100 runs with the Dodgers in 2006, the year before he opted out of his contract.
Epstein, though, is talking about a rate basis. He didn't exactly elaborate or go into specifics the way he did with Drew's OPS numbers -- the right fielder has the second-best OPS among everyday outfielders in the American League this season, he said -- but he emphasized the idea that Drew produces runs consistently on a rate basis.
What does that even mean?
You have to start with the basics. Two things need to happen for a player to score a run: He has to get on base, and he has to advance around the bases. Unless he hits a home run, both of those things don't happen at the same time. Most often, a player scores because another player puts the ball in play, but as Jacoby Ellsbury demonstrated in the first inning on Friday, another player doesn't even have to swing the bat. Speed and base-running savvy, of course, come into play quite a bit.
If you want to look at it the old-fashioned way, Drew ranks 65th in the American League in runs scored, tied with Placido Polanco and Casey Blake. That doesn't seem like much.
But what if we look at runs on a rate basis?
Let's divide runs by plate appearances. That seems easy.
R/PA Leaders
1. Albert Pujols, .180
2. Johnny Damon, .182
3. Kevin Youkilis, .169
4. Raul Ibanez, .166
5. Chase Utley, .164
(skipping ahead)
7. Jason Bay, .161
13. Dustin Pedroia, .159
18. Joe Mauer, .154
19. Hanley Ramirez, .154
20. J.D. Drew, .153
(A tip of the cap to FanGraphs.com for the easily formatted and calculated stats.)
Well, then. That's interesting. Drew just jumped from 66th to 20th (out of 154 players who have qualified for the batting title) and is right in there with two players who will or could win their league's respective MVP awards this year.
What's even more interesting is that Drew has done that while primarily hitting in the bottom half of the Red Sox order. He's just a tick behind Dustin Pedroia -- he's closer to Pedroia than Pedroia is to Youkilis. He hasn't had Youkilis or Bay or Mike Lowell there to drive him in. He's usually hitting in front of Jason Varitek and either Nick Green or Alex Gonzalez, and those guys aren't exactly extra-base-hit machines.
But he's still scoring 15 percent of the time he comes to the plate -- and scoring at almost the same rate as Mauer, a player who hits right in the middle of the Minnesota Twins' lineup.
Let's go back a couple of seasons and run the same formula.
In 2008, Drew had just 456 plate appearances because of injury and scored just 79 runs, which ranked him in a tie for 77th in the major leagues.
But here are the R/PA leaders in 2008:
1. Hanley Ramirez, .180
2. Curtis Granderson, .178
3. Alex Rodriguez, .175
4. Ian Kinsler, .175
5. Mark DeRosa, .174
6. J.D. Drew, .173
13. Jason Bay, .166
17. Dustin Pedroia, .163
18. Jacoby Ellsbury, .161
That's even more interesting. Sixth-best in the majors.
If we go back further, the somewhat disappointing regular season Drew had in 2007 is born out in his R/PA numbers: He ranks 40th in the major leagues at .152, scoring just 84 runs in 552 plate appearances. In 2006, his final year with the Dodgers, Drew ranked 70th in the major leagues in R/PA.
But if we go back and look at 2004, the year he scored a career-best 118 runs hitting in front of future Hall of Famer Chipper Jones, we come up with this R/PA leaderboard:
1. Barry Bonds, .209
2. Albert Pujols, .192
3. Scott Rolen, .184
4. J.D. Drew, .183
5. Vladimir Guerrero, .182
For his career, Drew has a R/PA rate of .160 -- .1598, to be exact -- which means he's scoring a run 16 percent of the time he comes to the plate.
For the sake of comparison, Jason Bay has a career R/PA rate of .149 -- .1485, actually -- but is generally considered by Red Sox fans to be a far superior offensive player.
It's not always about raw numbers.
If you look at the number of runs he generates as a percentage of plate appearances, well, he's right up there among the best in the game.
Friday, October 2, 2009
Projecting the ALDS roster
Theo Epstein and Terry Francona this week both deflected opportunities to make any type of announcement about the 25-man roster the Red Sox will take with them into the postseason. Those decisions, both said, will be made Monday or Tuesday, after the season, at a meeting likely to take place after the Red Sox arrive in Los Angeles in advance of Game 1.
There's no reason, though, why we can't go ahead and speculate.
Here, then, is a preliminary look at how the roster might shape up -- and this is independent of which schedule the Yankees choose to play:
Pitchers (10): Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, Clay Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka; Daniel Bard, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Ramon Ramirez, Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner.
The Red Sox, either way, are going to want four starting pitchers on their postseason roster. If they play the shorter of the two ALDS schedules, they'll need to start Matsuzaka. If they play the longer of the two ALDS schedules, they'll need a starting pitcher in reserve just in case: Imagine the nightmare scenario in which Jon Lester takes another line drive off the knee in Game 1, not only torching the bullpen but sidelining him for Game 4.
(The Red Sox could remove him from the roster and replace him, but he'd then be ineligible for the ALCS. If the injury was severe enough to cost him a start but not enough to cost him three starts, they wouldn't want to do that.)
The question, then, becomes how many relief pitchers the Red Sox will need. A year ago, they chose to go with 10 pitchers, total, with Paul Byrd as the long reliever and emergency starter. (He did not appear in a game.) There's no reason they'd change that number this year.
Both David Aardsma and Mike Timlin were left off the roster for the ALDS a year ago, but Timlin was added for the ALCS. It appears that the roller-coaster ride that is Manny Delcarmen will fill the same role: He'll keep throwing and be ready in case someone blows out an elbow during the ALDS, but he likely won't be on the roster until the ALCS.
Catchers (3): George Kottaras, Victor Martinez, Jason Varitek.
It might be tempting to go with just two catchers thanks to Martinez's flexibility, but it's far too risky: If Martinez were to sprain an ankle, the Red Sox would have just one true catcher on the roster. Kottaras might not play, but he's necessary insurance.
Infielders (6): Alex Gonzalez, Casey Kotchman, Mike Lowell, Jed Lowrie, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis.
Lowrie earns the nod over Nick Green as a backup middle infielder both because he's healthier and because he's the better player. Green deserves all the praise that has come his way this season for helping the Red Sox tread water at shortstop, but if Lowrie is healthy enough, he should be the guy.
(Note: Gonzalez was hit by a pitch on Saturday night and removed from the game. If it's anything serious and Green still can't go, you might see Chris Woodward fill that spot.)
Outfielders (5): Rocco Baldelli, Jason Bay, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury and Joey Gathright.
Leaving an extra pitcher off the roster means the Red Sox have the luxury of adding Gathright for late-inning substitutions -- he can fill the Dave Roberts pinch-running role, but he also could replace Bay in the outfield late in a close game.
Designated hitter (1): David Ortiz.
The guy has something of a postseason history, it seems.
There's no reason, though, why we can't go ahead and speculate.
Here, then, is a preliminary look at how the roster might shape up -- and this is independent of which schedule the Yankees choose to play:
Pitchers (10): Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, Clay Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka; Daniel Bard, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Ramon Ramirez, Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner.
The Red Sox, either way, are going to want four starting pitchers on their postseason roster. If they play the shorter of the two ALDS schedules, they'll need to start Matsuzaka. If they play the longer of the two ALDS schedules, they'll need a starting pitcher in reserve just in case: Imagine the nightmare scenario in which Jon Lester takes another line drive off the knee in Game 1, not only torching the bullpen but sidelining him for Game 4.
(The Red Sox could remove him from the roster and replace him, but he'd then be ineligible for the ALCS. If the injury was severe enough to cost him a start but not enough to cost him three starts, they wouldn't want to do that.)
The question, then, becomes how many relief pitchers the Red Sox will need. A year ago, they chose to go with 10 pitchers, total, with Paul Byrd as the long reliever and emergency starter. (He did not appear in a game.) There's no reason they'd change that number this year.
Both David Aardsma and Mike Timlin were left off the roster for the ALDS a year ago, but Timlin was added for the ALCS. It appears that the roller-coaster ride that is Manny Delcarmen will fill the same role: He'll keep throwing and be ready in case someone blows out an elbow during the ALDS, but he likely won't be on the roster until the ALCS.
Catchers (3): George Kottaras, Victor Martinez, Jason Varitek.
It might be tempting to go with just two catchers thanks to Martinez's flexibility, but it's far too risky: If Martinez were to sprain an ankle, the Red Sox would have just one true catcher on the roster. Kottaras might not play, but he's necessary insurance.
Infielders (6): Alex Gonzalez, Casey Kotchman, Mike Lowell, Jed Lowrie, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis.
Lowrie earns the nod over Nick Green as a backup middle infielder both because he's healthier and because he's the better player. Green deserves all the praise that has come his way this season for helping the Red Sox tread water at shortstop, but if Lowrie is healthy enough, he should be the guy.
(Note: Gonzalez was hit by a pitch on Saturday night and removed from the game. If it's anything serious and Green still can't go, you might see Chris Woodward fill that spot.)
Outfielders (5): Rocco Baldelli, Jason Bay, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury and Joey Gathright.
Leaving an extra pitcher off the roster means the Red Sox have the luxury of adding Gathright for late-inning substitutions -- he can fill the Dave Roberts pinch-running role, but he also could replace Bay in the outfield late in a close game.
Designated hitter (1): David Ortiz.
The guy has something of a postseason history, it seems.
Friday, September 4, 2009
The impending courtship of Chone Figgins
Chone Figgins moved all over the field for the Angels for the first three seasons of his career: He played second base, third base, shortstop and all three outfield positions at times for the perennial West Division champions. Not surprisingly, he was a pretty mediocre player at every single position.
Since the Angels made him a full-time third baseman, though, here's how his defense has progressed:
(Fielding Bible/UZR)
2007: minus-2/minus-3.8
2008: plus-8/plus-8.2
2009: plus-27*/plus-12.2
*best in the major leagues
He's particularly good at going to his left, something the Red Sox would have loved to have seen this season.
At the same time he's learned how to play third base, he's learned how to be a hitter. Check out his progression in terms of working the count:
(Pitches per plate appearance)
2006: 3.88
2007: 3.99
2008: 4.08
2009: 4.20
You know how this blog feels about the Blue Jays' Marco Scutaro, likewise an free agent this offseason who would represent an upgrade both in the field and at the plate. Figgins, though, might be just as perfect of a fit.
The Red Sox will go into this offseason with a gaping hole in left field -- presuming Jason Bay doesn't sign an extension between now and the World Series -- as well as question marks at third base and designated hitter. David Ortiz might or might not be able to contribute with the bat. Mike Lowell might or might not be able to field his position.
A team with World Series aspirations can't go into a season with question marks that critical to its success. Signing Figgins to play third base, though, would solve both issues.
The switch-hitting speedster immediately would be installed at the top of the Red Sox lineup, hitting just in front of Dustin Pedroia and bumping Jacoby Ellsbury back down behind some of the thumpers in the middle of the lineup. Lowell would play third base occasionally and play designated hitter most of the rest of the time. Ortiz would become the team's Jim Thome or Darryl Strawberry off the bench.
Figgins is no home-run hitter, but his on-base percentage over the last three seasons is .388. Only four players -- Joe Mauer, Kevin Youkilis, Ben Zobrist and Alex Rodriguez -- have a better on-base percentage this season than Figgins' .402.
Oh, and he's one of the best baserunners in the major leagues. He had 39 stolen bases this season and rates as a plus-34 baserunner on Bill James' scale, a tick ahead of Ellsbury and fourth-best in the major leagues.
He's swung at less than 40 percent of pitches he's seen -- including just 16.1 percent of pitches out of the strike zone -- and he makes contact just about 88 percent of the time he swings that bat.
In other words, he's Ellsbury but with Youkilis' plate discipline.
The only downside with Figgins is his age: Like Scutaro, he's on the wrong side of 30 years old. He'd also be more expensive than Scutaro simply because his stolen bases and his longer track record make him more appealing to those teams who might be swayed by traditional statistics.
Speed in particular can disappear quickly: Only four players since 1991 have stolen at least 40 bases in a season at the age of 35 or older. But it's not as if Figgins is 34 years old already -- he'll turn 32 in January -- and it's not as if he's going to be fielding many six- or seven-year offers.
A four-year deal for $40 million, a little bit more than Julio Lugo got when he signed with the Red Sox, might be a perfect fit for both sides.
But if it takes more than that, the Red Sox ought to go for it. Few teams can open up the wallet the way the Red Sox can. Two of those teams -- the Yankees and the Mets -- are locked in long-term at third base. If Theo Epstein decides Figgins is a fit for the Red Sox, there's no reason he shouldn't be able to go get him.
Since the Angels made him a full-time third baseman, though, here's how his defense has progressed:
(Fielding Bible/UZR)
2007: minus-2/minus-3.8
2008: plus-8/plus-8.2
2009: plus-27*/plus-12.2
*best in the major leagues
He's particularly good at going to his left, something the Red Sox would have loved to have seen this season.
At the same time he's learned how to play third base, he's learned how to be a hitter. Check out his progression in terms of working the count:
(Pitches per plate appearance)
2006: 3.88
2007: 3.99
2008: 4.08
2009: 4.20
You know how this blog feels about the Blue Jays' Marco Scutaro, likewise an free agent this offseason who would represent an upgrade both in the field and at the plate. Figgins, though, might be just as perfect of a fit.
The Red Sox will go into this offseason with a gaping hole in left field -- presuming Jason Bay doesn't sign an extension between now and the World Series -- as well as question marks at third base and designated hitter. David Ortiz might or might not be able to contribute with the bat. Mike Lowell might or might not be able to field his position.
A team with World Series aspirations can't go into a season with question marks that critical to its success. Signing Figgins to play third base, though, would solve both issues.
The switch-hitting speedster immediately would be installed at the top of the Red Sox lineup, hitting just in front of Dustin Pedroia and bumping Jacoby Ellsbury back down behind some of the thumpers in the middle of the lineup. Lowell would play third base occasionally and play designated hitter most of the rest of the time. Ortiz would become the team's Jim Thome or Darryl Strawberry off the bench.
Figgins is no home-run hitter, but his on-base percentage over the last three seasons is .388. Only four players -- Joe Mauer, Kevin Youkilis, Ben Zobrist and Alex Rodriguez -- have a better on-base percentage this season than Figgins' .402.
Oh, and he's one of the best baserunners in the major leagues. He had 39 stolen bases this season and rates as a plus-34 baserunner on Bill James' scale, a tick ahead of Ellsbury and fourth-best in the major leagues.
He's swung at less than 40 percent of pitches he's seen -- including just 16.1 percent of pitches out of the strike zone -- and he makes contact just about 88 percent of the time he swings that bat.
In other words, he's Ellsbury but with Youkilis' plate discipline.
The only downside with Figgins is his age: Like Scutaro, he's on the wrong side of 30 years old. He'd also be more expensive than Scutaro simply because his stolen bases and his longer track record make him more appealing to those teams who might be swayed by traditional statistics.
Speed in particular can disappear quickly: Only four players since 1991 have stolen at least 40 bases in a season at the age of 35 or older. But it's not as if Figgins is 34 years old already -- he'll turn 32 in January -- and it's not as if he's going to be fielding many six- or seven-year offers.
A four-year deal for $40 million, a little bit more than Julio Lugo got when he signed with the Red Sox, might be a perfect fit for both sides.
But if it takes more than that, the Red Sox ought to go for it. Few teams can open up the wallet the way the Red Sox can. Two of those teams -- the Yankees and the Mets -- are locked in long-term at third base. If Theo Epstein decides Figgins is a fit for the Red Sox, there's no reason he shouldn't be able to go get him.
Friday, July 31, 2009
Expect the Red Sox to keep pursuing Gonzalez, Halladay this winter
"In previous days, we had some things working, things we were really excited about, and a couple that got really close but didn't happen. That's par for the course in deadline season. We shot big on a couple things, a deal that could provide maximum impact. We were very aggressive in use of our own prospects, those deals got close. Maybe the foundation is laid for the offseason." -- Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein
Well, that's interesting.
The Red Sox landed Cleveland's Victor Martinez with a package of youngsters fronted by relief pitcher Justin Masterson and later swapped first baseman Adam LaRoche -- who becomes to the Red Sox what Mike Piazza was to the Marlins -- to Atlanta for first baseman Casey Kotchman. While Masterson provided a power arm in the Red Sox bullpen and Single-A lefty Nick Hagadone could turn into a Jon Lester-type ace, the Red Sox made both moves largely without depleting their farm system of their top prospects.
Funny thing: Neither Adrian Gonzalez nor Roy Halladay were traded before the deadline. Both will remain with their teams for the rest of the season -- and both likely will be right back on the trading block come November.
Epstein didn't exactly seem to hide the fact that he's ready to take another run at both once this season comes to an end.
The Blue Jays and Padres both reportedly demanded huge ransoms from the Red Sox in return for Halladay and Gonzalez, the team's other two primary targets all day and all week. Both have those players under control through next season and thus have at least two more chances -- the offseason and the July trade deadline next year -- to get a haul of prospects back. (Halladay is a free agent after the 2010 season. Gonzalez, actually, has a no-brainer club option built into his contract for the 2011 season.)
Epstein went out of his way, though, to say that maybe "there's a foundation laid for the offseason." He clearly intends to use the offseason to go after either Halladay or Gonzalez (or both) the way teams went after Minnesota's Johan Santana two winters ago. Rather than having to juggle roster spots and rob Peter to pay Paul, Epstein can build his roster around the players he acquires and the players he trades away.
If the Red Sox had found a compromise with San Diego, for example, the trade might have looked a little something like this: 1B Adrian Gonzalez for RHP Clay Buchholz, RHP Justin Masterson, RHP Michael Bowden, 1B Lars Anderson, OF Josh Reddick. But had the Red Sox traded Buchholz on Friday, they would have found themselves with an immediate hole in a starting rotation already depleted by injury (Tim Wakefield), ineffectiveness (Brad Penny, John Smoltz) or both (Daisuke Matsuzaka). They would have had to spin another prospect or two to the Kansas City Royals for Brian Bannister or make a similar move just to have enough starting pitchers to get through August.
Should Epstein pursue Gonzalez again this offseason, though, he'll still have the same prospects available. He might even have more prospects available given that all of the players in his system will have two more months of experience and thus will be two months closer to the major leagues. Westmoreland will be a year older. Reddick will be a year older. Casey Kelly will be a year older. Tim Federowicz -- who caught Daniel Bard at North Carolina, incidentally -- will be a year older.
He'll also be able to adapt far more easily than he would have on Friday. If he has to trade Buchholz and/or Bowden, possibly his No. 4 and 5 starters next April, he can go get a free-agent pitcher.
(He also could announce, "Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Clay Buchholz will open next season at the top of my pitching rotation. Each one is just as off-limits as the other.")
If he has to trade shortstop Jed Lowrie to get Gonzalez, he can go get a free-agent shortstop. If he has to trade center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury, he can get get a free-agent center fielder. If he has to trade reliever Manny Delcarmen, he can go get a free-agent bullpen arm. You get the picture.
Even better, he'll have a chance to shape his roster so manager Terry Francona doesn't get ulcers just deciding who plays and who sits. He can dangle a well-rested Mike Lowell and offer to pay half or more of his remaining salary just to give Gonzalez and Kevin Youkilis regular at-bats at first base and third base, respectively. He can try to figure out what's going to happen with designated hitter David Ortiz and catcher Jason Varitek. He can make a decision about picking up the $7.5 million option in the contract of new acquisition Victor Martinez.
Nothing about Friday's trades precludes a run at Gonzalez or Halladay this winter. In fact, as Epstein does, it simply lays a foundation.
Well, that's interesting.
The Red Sox landed Cleveland's Victor Martinez with a package of youngsters fronted by relief pitcher Justin Masterson and later swapped first baseman Adam LaRoche -- who becomes to the Red Sox what Mike Piazza was to the Marlins -- to Atlanta for first baseman Casey Kotchman. While Masterson provided a power arm in the Red Sox bullpen and Single-A lefty Nick Hagadone could turn into a Jon Lester-type ace, the Red Sox made both moves largely without depleting their farm system of their top prospects.
Funny thing: Neither Adrian Gonzalez nor Roy Halladay were traded before the deadline. Both will remain with their teams for the rest of the season -- and both likely will be right back on the trading block come November.
Epstein didn't exactly seem to hide the fact that he's ready to take another run at both once this season comes to an end.
The Blue Jays and Padres both reportedly demanded huge ransoms from the Red Sox in return for Halladay and Gonzalez, the team's other two primary targets all day and all week. Both have those players under control through next season and thus have at least two more chances -- the offseason and the July trade deadline next year -- to get a haul of prospects back. (Halladay is a free agent after the 2010 season. Gonzalez, actually, has a no-brainer club option built into his contract for the 2011 season.)
Epstein went out of his way, though, to say that maybe "there's a foundation laid for the offseason." He clearly intends to use the offseason to go after either Halladay or Gonzalez (or both) the way teams went after Minnesota's Johan Santana two winters ago. Rather than having to juggle roster spots and rob Peter to pay Paul, Epstein can build his roster around the players he acquires and the players he trades away.
If the Red Sox had found a compromise with San Diego, for example, the trade might have looked a little something like this: 1B Adrian Gonzalez for RHP Clay Buchholz, RHP Justin Masterson, RHP Michael Bowden, 1B Lars Anderson, OF Josh Reddick. But had the Red Sox traded Buchholz on Friday, they would have found themselves with an immediate hole in a starting rotation already depleted by injury (Tim Wakefield), ineffectiveness (Brad Penny, John Smoltz) or both (Daisuke Matsuzaka). They would have had to spin another prospect or two to the Kansas City Royals for Brian Bannister or make a similar move just to have enough starting pitchers to get through August.
Should Epstein pursue Gonzalez again this offseason, though, he'll still have the same prospects available. He might even have more prospects available given that all of the players in his system will have two more months of experience and thus will be two months closer to the major leagues. Westmoreland will be a year older. Reddick will be a year older. Casey Kelly will be a year older. Tim Federowicz -- who caught Daniel Bard at North Carolina, incidentally -- will be a year older.
He'll also be able to adapt far more easily than he would have on Friday. If he has to trade Buchholz and/or Bowden, possibly his No. 4 and 5 starters next April, he can go get a free-agent pitcher.
(He also could announce, "Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Clay Buchholz will open next season at the top of my pitching rotation. Each one is just as off-limits as the other.")
If he has to trade shortstop Jed Lowrie to get Gonzalez, he can go get a free-agent shortstop. If he has to trade center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury, he can get get a free-agent center fielder. If he has to trade reliever Manny Delcarmen, he can go get a free-agent bullpen arm. You get the picture.
Even better, he'll have a chance to shape his roster so manager Terry Francona doesn't get ulcers just deciding who plays and who sits. He can dangle a well-rested Mike Lowell and offer to pay half or more of his remaining salary just to give Gonzalez and Kevin Youkilis regular at-bats at first base and third base, respectively. He can try to figure out what's going to happen with designated hitter David Ortiz and catcher Jason Varitek. He can make a decision about picking up the $7.5 million option in the contract of new acquisition Victor Martinez.
Nothing about Friday's trades precludes a run at Gonzalez or Halladay this winter. In fact, as Epstein does, it simply lays a foundation.
Friday, July 24, 2009
Which Prince is this? Oh, just Prince.
(Just in case you didn't see the ESPYs.)
The Red Sox are an old team. There's no way around it. Of the nine players who have more than 200 plate appearances this season, only two -- Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury -- are under 30 years old. Jason Bay and Kevin Youkilis are 30. J.D. Drew and David Ortiz both are 33. Mike Lowell is 35. Jason Varitek is 37.
(Edit: Jacoby Ellsbury is under 30. Jason Varitek is not under 30. Jason Varitek has not been under 30 since the Joe Kerrigan administration.)
That's a big problem this season -- particularly because the team's OPS has dwindled every month since April.
But that's a big problem for next season, too, because the Red Sox don't exactly have anyone waiting in the wings to make the type of impact Dustin Pedroia made in 2007 -- or even the type of impact Jed Lowrie made in 2008. Lars Anderson is at least a year away. Josh Reddick is at least a year away. Ryan Kalish is at least two years away. Ryan Westmoreland is probably four or five years away.
Chris Duncan pretty much becomes the player at Triple-A Pawtucket with the most potential impact immediately upon his debut with the team. No one else on that roster -- with the possible, exception of 25-year-old Aaron Bates, whose age limits his ceiling -- appears to be someone who could hit in the middle of a major-league lineup at any point in his career.
Without trading Clay Buchholz, there appears to be little the Red Sox can do this week to make a dramatic upgrade that addresses the lineup's dual problems -- being cold and being old. Cleveland's Victor Martinez would be a nice short-term solution, but he's 30 years old himself and has never finished a season with an OPS of .900. (That's fine if he's a catcher. That's not fine if he's a first baseman.)
Even if the Red Sox made a move this week to land Martinez, they'd either have to give him a lucrative extension at the age of 32 or go into the 2011 season depending heavily upon Anderson, Reddick or Zac Daeges. (That's assuming the Indians don't demand Anderson, Reddick and/or Daeges as part of the trade.)
What do the Red Sox have to do to get younger?
Well, here's the current list of 20-somethings with a 1.000 OPS:
1. Albert Pujols, 29 years old
2. Ben Zobrist, 28 years old
3. Joe Mauer, 26 years old
4. Prince Fielder, 25 years old
The synopsis:
1. Pujols is signed through 2011 -- assuming the Cardinals exercise their $16 million option -- and hasn't made a peep about any kind of desire to leave the city that loves him more than it loves the Arch.
2. Zobrist might have to have this type of season one more time before people start to take him seriously as an MVP-caliber hitter.
3. Mauer is set to ignite a frantic bidding war after the 2010 season, a bidding war either the Twins (based on loyalty) or the Yankees (based on the $324 gajillion dollars they'll offer him) figure to win. (Sorry.)
That leaves Fielder.
Cecil's kid has a .438 on-base percentage and a .610 slugging percentage so far this season, numbers that would lead the American League in both categories. He OPS'ed better than 1.000 two years ago but saw his numbers tumble all the way down to .276/.372/.507 -- in other words, what Evan Longoria has done so far this season -- last year.
He signed a two-year contract to stave off arbitration with the Brewers: He's earning $6.5 million this year and will earn $10.5 million next year. After that, though, he'll be looking at a Ryan Howard-type arbitration number -- and the Brewers might not have any choice but to send him packing.
They might even be convinced to do so this winter with both Fielder's $10.5 million salary and a package consisting of Anderson, Michael Bowden and Casey Kelly staring them in the face.
The Red Sox love cost efficiency. The trade of Julio Lugo and $13 million in cash to the St. Louis Cardinals, though, once again demonstrates the team's willingness to open its wallet when the situation demands it.
Fielder might be the perfect player for what the Red Sox need. He hits home runs. He works counts and sees pitches. He draws walks. He strikes out less often than Jason Bay, J.D. Drew, David Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis do. (The list of "Players who strike out at a higher rate than Prince Fielder" also includes Carlos Pena, Ryan Howard, Justin Upton, Evan Longoria, Grady Sizemore and Adam Jones.) He's a brutal defensive first baseman, but the Red Sox have done just fine with David Ortiz as their full-time designated hitter.
He'll also be a month shy of his 26th birthday when next season begins. The prime of his career lies ahead of him.
That's the type of player worth cashing in your chips for. That's the type of player that's worth packaging Anderson and Bowden and Kelly and Reddick and Tazawa.
(OK, maybe not all of those players. But maybe four of the five.)
That's the type of player around whom the Red Sox could build their team for the next six or seven years. If they're going to trade some of their highly touted prospects, that's the type of player they ought to be trying to get.
The Red Sox are an old team. There's no way around it. Of the nine players who have more than 200 plate appearances this season, only two -- Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury -- are under 30 years old. Jason Bay and Kevin Youkilis are 30. J.D. Drew and David Ortiz both are 33. Mike Lowell is 35. Jason Varitek is 37.
(Edit: Jacoby Ellsbury is under 30. Jason Varitek is not under 30. Jason Varitek has not been under 30 since the Joe Kerrigan administration.)
That's a big problem this season -- particularly because the team's OPS has dwindled every month since April.
But that's a big problem for next season, too, because the Red Sox don't exactly have anyone waiting in the wings to make the type of impact Dustin Pedroia made in 2007 -- or even the type of impact Jed Lowrie made in 2008. Lars Anderson is at least a year away. Josh Reddick is at least a year away. Ryan Kalish is at least two years away. Ryan Westmoreland is probably four or five years away.
Chris Duncan pretty much becomes the player at Triple-A Pawtucket with the most potential impact immediately upon his debut with the team. No one else on that roster -- with the possible, exception of 25-year-old Aaron Bates, whose age limits his ceiling -- appears to be someone who could hit in the middle of a major-league lineup at any point in his career.
Without trading Clay Buchholz, there appears to be little the Red Sox can do this week to make a dramatic upgrade that addresses the lineup's dual problems -- being cold and being old. Cleveland's Victor Martinez would be a nice short-term solution, but he's 30 years old himself and has never finished a season with an OPS of .900. (That's fine if he's a catcher. That's not fine if he's a first baseman.)
Even if the Red Sox made a move this week to land Martinez, they'd either have to give him a lucrative extension at the age of 32 or go into the 2011 season depending heavily upon Anderson, Reddick or Zac Daeges. (That's assuming the Indians don't demand Anderson, Reddick and/or Daeges as part of the trade.)
What do the Red Sox have to do to get younger?
Well, here's the current list of 20-somethings with a 1.000 OPS:
1. Albert Pujols, 29 years old
2. Ben Zobrist, 28 years old
3. Joe Mauer, 26 years old
4. Prince Fielder, 25 years old
The synopsis:
1. Pujols is signed through 2011 -- assuming the Cardinals exercise their $16 million option -- and hasn't made a peep about any kind of desire to leave the city that loves him more than it loves the Arch.
2. Zobrist might have to have this type of season one more time before people start to take him seriously as an MVP-caliber hitter.
3. Mauer is set to ignite a frantic bidding war after the 2010 season, a bidding war either the Twins (based on loyalty) or the Yankees (based on the $324 gajillion dollars they'll offer him) figure to win. (Sorry.)
That leaves Fielder.
Cecil's kid has a .438 on-base percentage and a .610 slugging percentage so far this season, numbers that would lead the American League in both categories. He OPS'ed better than 1.000 two years ago but saw his numbers tumble all the way down to .276/.372/.507 -- in other words, what Evan Longoria has done so far this season -- last year.
He signed a two-year contract to stave off arbitration with the Brewers: He's earning $6.5 million this year and will earn $10.5 million next year. After that, though, he'll be looking at a Ryan Howard-type arbitration number -- and the Brewers might not have any choice but to send him packing.
They might even be convinced to do so this winter with both Fielder's $10.5 million salary and a package consisting of Anderson, Michael Bowden and Casey Kelly staring them in the face.
The Red Sox love cost efficiency. The trade of Julio Lugo and $13 million in cash to the St. Louis Cardinals, though, once again demonstrates the team's willingness to open its wallet when the situation demands it.
Fielder might be the perfect player for what the Red Sox need. He hits home runs. He works counts and sees pitches. He draws walks. He strikes out less often than Jason Bay, J.D. Drew, David Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis do. (The list of "Players who strike out at a higher rate than Prince Fielder" also includes Carlos Pena, Ryan Howard, Justin Upton, Evan Longoria, Grady Sizemore and Adam Jones.) He's a brutal defensive first baseman, but the Red Sox have done just fine with David Ortiz as their full-time designated hitter.
He'll also be a month shy of his 26th birthday when next season begins. The prime of his career lies ahead of him.
That's the type of player worth cashing in your chips for. That's the type of player that's worth packaging Anderson and Bowden and Kelly and Reddick and Tazawa.
(OK, maybe not all of those players. But maybe four of the five.)
That's the type of player around whom the Red Sox could build their team for the next six or seven years. If they're going to trade some of their highly touted prospects, that's the type of player they ought to be trying to get.
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
A scenario or two for July 31
The trade deadline is 10 days away -- which means it'll still be a week or so until the market shakes itself out and teams decide whether they're in or out.
(We'd help them if they asked, and that might speed the process along. Brewers? In. Mets? Out. Mariners? In. Twins? Out. But no one ever asks.)
While Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein has a full 25-man roster and no glaring holes to fill, but he also has an offense with an on-base percentage and slugging percentage that has declined every month and a bullpen with an ERA that gone in the opposite direction. He has two of baseball's best starting pitchers but a back end of the rotation featuring three veterans with injury history and a Triple-A phenom pounding at the door.
Even though his team still is in first place, Epstein has some work to do. Here's one way things might shake out between now and July 31:
1. Epstein trades Brad Penny to Milwaukee, Philadelphia or St. Louis for the best deal he can get.
Penny had a 3.45 ERA in 10 starts from mid-May to mid-July before getting knocked around in Toronto on Saturday. Even on Saturday, though, Penny threw a consistent 94 or 95 miles per hour and thus has to be appealing for a National League contender looking to shore up the back end of its rotation.
The trade, of course, opens up a rotation spot for Clay Buchholz -- which can't happen until July 28 because Buchholz has been optioned back to Triple-A and thus can't be recalled for 10 days.
2. Epstein trades Mike Lowell to Cincinnati for Double-A pitcher Travis Wood, eating most of Lowell's salary in the process.
The Red Sox can't keep waiting on Lowell -- and depending upon him when they have no idea if he'll be available. The three-year, $37.5 million contract they lavished upon him after he won World Series MVP honors in 2007 now looks like a mistake, and Epstein has shown a willingness to acknowledged mistakes and rectify them so they don't keep haunting his team.
Lowell's .799 OPS ranks him in the middle of the pack of major-league third basemen -- he's behind Chone Figgins and Ryan Zimmerman but ahead of Mark Teahan, Pedro Feliz and Andy LaRoche. His Ultimate Zone Rating ranks him third-worst in the major leagues, however, and John Dewan's plus-minus system has him at minus-15 runs saved -- 35th in the major leagues. (As Joe Posnanski is fond of pointing out, there are only 30 major-league teams.)
The Red Sox have rectified their defensive situation at shortstop. They need to rectify their defensive situation at third base.
Cincinnati, though, needs offense. Its pitching staff has a respectable 4.27 ERA -- but its lineup is averaging just 4.10 runs per game, worse than all but two National League teams. With the National League Central completely up for grabs, it might just take one or two bats to get the Reds right back into the thick of things. Lowell (OPS+ of 101) could step in for Jerry Hairston (OPS+ of 81) and Edwin Encarnacion (OPS+ of 92).
The Red Sox would have to kick in money to pay for the $18 million or so left on Lowell's deal. Given that their payroll dropped from $133 million last year to $121 million this year, there ought to be enough money for the parting gifts awarded to both Lowell and Julio Lugo.
Wood is a 22-year-old lefty who has taken a gigantic step forward this season, recording a 1.21 ERA in 19 starts for the Double-A Carolina Mudcats. He's done it with a strikeout-to-walk ratio that's almost 3.0 and by inducing more ground balls than fly balls. He's just 5-foot-11 and 165 pounds, but Tim Lincecum and Dustin Pedroia ought to have demonstrated by now that you can't dismiss a player just because he isn't 6-foot-2.
3. Epstein trades Ryan Kalish to Toronto for Marco Scutaro.
Once Toronto general manager J.P. Ricciardi either makes a Roy Halladay deal or gets to the point of no return on a Roy Halladay deal, it's time for him to sell off other expendable parts for prospects with an eye on 2011.
Scutaro, as previously discussed, fits exactly what the Red Sox need. For one thing, he's a leadoff hitter who thrives in the leadoff spot -- he's OBP'ing .383 in the leadoff spot this season -- and takes pitches and works counts and refuses to give away at-bats. On top of that, he's one of the best defensive infielders in the major leagues: He leads all shortstops in plus-minus this season (plus-22), and he was third among third basemen in plus-minus last season (plus-17).
With Lowell gone, Scutaro becomes the Red Sox's everyday third baseman but can play shortstop and second base when needed. He would allow Kevin Youkilis to return to first base, the position where he appears to be far better with the glove.
The Red Sox aren't going to trade Buchholz or Lars Anderson for Scutaro, but the depth they've built in their system would allow them to trade someone like Kalish, a 21-year-old outfielder who OPS'ed .938 at Single-A Salem before scuffling upon his promotion to Double-A Portland. Kalish was the system's sixth-ranked prospect in 2008 but dropped out of the top 10 rankings in 2009. He's a chip the Red Sox value highly, but you have to give up something to get something.
Then again, the Blue Jays might be interested in a prospect in the Cincinnati system that the Reds might be willing to trade for Lowell. If Epstein could broker a three-way deal that involves a prospect or two going from Cincinnati straight to Toronto, he could end up trading Lowell for Scutaro straight up without touching his own prospects.
(We'd help them if they asked, and that might speed the process along. Brewers? In. Mets? Out. Mariners? In. Twins? Out. But no one ever asks.)
While Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein has a full 25-man roster and no glaring holes to fill, but he also has an offense with an on-base percentage and slugging percentage that has declined every month and a bullpen with an ERA that gone in the opposite direction. He has two of baseball's best starting pitchers but a back end of the rotation featuring three veterans with injury history and a Triple-A phenom pounding at the door.
Even though his team still is in first place, Epstein has some work to do. Here's one way things might shake out between now and July 31:
1. Epstein trades Brad Penny to Milwaukee, Philadelphia or St. Louis for the best deal he can get.
Penny had a 3.45 ERA in 10 starts from mid-May to mid-July before getting knocked around in Toronto on Saturday. Even on Saturday, though, Penny threw a consistent 94 or 95 miles per hour and thus has to be appealing for a National League contender looking to shore up the back end of its rotation.
The trade, of course, opens up a rotation spot for Clay Buchholz -- which can't happen until July 28 because Buchholz has been optioned back to Triple-A and thus can't be recalled for 10 days.
2. Epstein trades Mike Lowell to Cincinnati for Double-A pitcher Travis Wood, eating most of Lowell's salary in the process.
The Red Sox can't keep waiting on Lowell -- and depending upon him when they have no idea if he'll be available. The three-year, $37.5 million contract they lavished upon him after he won World Series MVP honors in 2007 now looks like a mistake, and Epstein has shown a willingness to acknowledged mistakes and rectify them so they don't keep haunting his team.
Lowell's .799 OPS ranks him in the middle of the pack of major-league third basemen -- he's behind Chone Figgins and Ryan Zimmerman but ahead of Mark Teahan, Pedro Feliz and Andy LaRoche. His Ultimate Zone Rating ranks him third-worst in the major leagues, however, and John Dewan's plus-minus system has him at minus-15 runs saved -- 35th in the major leagues. (As Joe Posnanski is fond of pointing out, there are only 30 major-league teams.)
The Red Sox have rectified their defensive situation at shortstop. They need to rectify their defensive situation at third base.
Cincinnati, though, needs offense. Its pitching staff has a respectable 4.27 ERA -- but its lineup is averaging just 4.10 runs per game, worse than all but two National League teams. With the National League Central completely up for grabs, it might just take one or two bats to get the Reds right back into the thick of things. Lowell (OPS+ of 101) could step in for Jerry Hairston (OPS+ of 81) and Edwin Encarnacion (OPS+ of 92).
The Red Sox would have to kick in money to pay for the $18 million or so left on Lowell's deal. Given that their payroll dropped from $133 million last year to $121 million this year, there ought to be enough money for the parting gifts awarded to both Lowell and Julio Lugo.
Wood is a 22-year-old lefty who has taken a gigantic step forward this season, recording a 1.21 ERA in 19 starts for the Double-A Carolina Mudcats. He's done it with a strikeout-to-walk ratio that's almost 3.0 and by inducing more ground balls than fly balls. He's just 5-foot-11 and 165 pounds, but Tim Lincecum and Dustin Pedroia ought to have demonstrated by now that you can't dismiss a player just because he isn't 6-foot-2.
3. Epstein trades Ryan Kalish to Toronto for Marco Scutaro.
Once Toronto general manager J.P. Ricciardi either makes a Roy Halladay deal or gets to the point of no return on a Roy Halladay deal, it's time for him to sell off other expendable parts for prospects with an eye on 2011.
Scutaro, as previously discussed, fits exactly what the Red Sox need. For one thing, he's a leadoff hitter who thrives in the leadoff spot -- he's OBP'ing .383 in the leadoff spot this season -- and takes pitches and works counts and refuses to give away at-bats. On top of that, he's one of the best defensive infielders in the major leagues: He leads all shortstops in plus-minus this season (plus-22), and he was third among third basemen in plus-minus last season (plus-17).
With Lowell gone, Scutaro becomes the Red Sox's everyday third baseman but can play shortstop and second base when needed. He would allow Kevin Youkilis to return to first base, the position where he appears to be far better with the glove.
The Red Sox aren't going to trade Buchholz or Lars Anderson for Scutaro, but the depth they've built in their system would allow them to trade someone like Kalish, a 21-year-old outfielder who OPS'ed .938 at Single-A Salem before scuffling upon his promotion to Double-A Portland. Kalish was the system's sixth-ranked prospect in 2008 but dropped out of the top 10 rankings in 2009. He's a chip the Red Sox value highly, but you have to give up something to get something.
Then again, the Blue Jays might be interested in a prospect in the Cincinnati system that the Reds might be willing to trade for Lowell. If Epstein could broker a three-way deal that involves a prospect or two going from Cincinnati straight to Toronto, he could end up trading Lowell for Scutaro straight up without touching his own prospects.
Thursday, July 16, 2009
The impending courtship of Marco Scutaro
Theo Epstein almost certainly is taking a look at the roster of the Toronto Blue Jays this week. He's trying to figure out if it's worth the price it would take to acquire Roy Halladay. He's trying to figure out if it might be worth inquiring about third baseman Scott Rolen -- particularly if Mike Lowell's sore hip continues to flare up.
Epstein, eventually, will find another name on the list, the name of a player who will be a free agent after this season. This player isn't making much money but isn't exactly helping the Blue Jays go anywhere, either, and he might be available for a relative pittance in terms of prospects. This player would be more than adequate as a place-holder should Lowell continue to struggle, and he'd be a perfect fit as a utility player next season.
This player is Marco Scutaro.
Scutaro doesn't just have the best name in the major leagues -- aside from Coco Crisp, of course. Scutaro also is exactly the type of player the Red Sox covet and exactly the type of player who would fit beautifully with what the Red Sox are trying to do both at the plate and in the field.
At the plate
The Red Sox want guys who are going to make pitchers work and get on base. That's the focus. That's what they want to spend their money on.
Nick Green has done a nice job filling in while Jed Lowrie works his way back, but making pitchers work is not exactly his forte -- he swings at 39 percent of pitches out of the strike zone. (The major league average is somewhere around 24 percent.)
Kevin Youkilis swings at 18.2 percent of pitches out of the strike zone. J.D. Drew swings at 17.6 percent.
Scutaro, so far this season, swings at 11.5 percent.
In fact, check out the American League leaderboard:
1. Scutaro: 11.5 percent
2. Nick Swisher: 16.7 percent
3. Bobby Abreu: 16.7 percent
4. Chone Figgins: 17.9 percent
5. Denard Span: 17.1 percent
Scutaro is far and away the best in the American League at laying off pitches that are out of the strike zone. At the same time, though, he's terrific at making contact at the ball in the strike zone -- he has a contact rate of 96.1 percent when the ball is in the strike zone, third-best in the American League.
Jason Bay, for a little perspective, makes contact when he swings at a ball in the strike zone just 80.5 percent of the time. Even Youkilis and Drew both are under 90 percent.
Scutaro will make pitchers throw strikes and is able to put the ball in play. Small wonder his on-base percentage (.384) ranks 11th in the American League this year, right in between Justin Morneau and Miguel Cabrera. Among current Red Sox, only Youkilis (.419) ranks higher.
In the field
It's not just that Scutaro comes across as a good defensive shortstop through John Dewan's plus/minus system.
So far this season, he's the best.
So far this season, Scutaro has earned a plus-21 for plays made, according to Dewan's system, and has saved 16 runs -- tops in the major leagues. (Jack Wilson is at plus-20, and Elvis Andrus is at plus-10. No one else is in double digits. Nick Green is at plus-4. Julio Lugo is at minus-15.)
A year ago, while only playing part-time at shortstop, he earned a plus-12 and saved nine runs, good for eighth in the major leagues.
All that time, though, he also was playing part-time at third base -- where he earned himself a plus-17 on Dewan's scale and saved 13 runs. Only Adrian Beltre (plus-32) and Jack Hannahan (plus-21) ranked higher. Even Blue Jays teammate Scott Rolen, well known as one of the best defensive third basemen in the game, only recorded a plus-13.
Imagine having Scutaro available to play both shortstop and third base both this season and next. Kevin Youkilis -- a player whose defensive numbers consistently are far better at first base than at third -- could play first base full-time. Lowell could take some days off. Lowrie could take some days off.
***
Scutaro, for whatever reason, always has been seen as a useful utility infielder but not much more. He's almost 34 years old but didn't get more than 100 plate appearances in a single season until just five years ago. (Surprise, surprise: It was with Billy Beane's Oakland Athletics.)
He's never been highly coveted. When the A's traded him to the Blue Jays, in fact, they received only minor league pitchers Kristian Bell and Graham Godfrey. (Our research might be off, but we believe Bell starred in "Forgetting Sarah Marshall" and Godfrey played the voice of Iago in "Aladdin." Not much of a trade.)
He's making just $1.1 million this season -- and he's a free agent after this season.
Epstein would do well to inquire about Scutaro the next time he calls Ricciardi -- he could pretend he's calling about Halladay, in fact, and then work his way to the 34-year-old career utility infielder. If he can't get a deal done this month, he ought to have Scutaro's agent on speed-dial once free agency begins this winter.
The best teams are built with a specific plan in mind. Few players both are dirt-cheap affordable and fit the Red Sox plan perfectly. But Scutaro is one of those players.
Epstein, eventually, will find another name on the list, the name of a player who will be a free agent after this season. This player isn't making much money but isn't exactly helping the Blue Jays go anywhere, either, and he might be available for a relative pittance in terms of prospects. This player would be more than adequate as a place-holder should Lowell continue to struggle, and he'd be a perfect fit as a utility player next season.
This player is Marco Scutaro.
Scutaro doesn't just have the best name in the major leagues -- aside from Coco Crisp, of course. Scutaro also is exactly the type of player the Red Sox covet and exactly the type of player who would fit beautifully with what the Red Sox are trying to do both at the plate and in the field.
At the plate
The Red Sox want guys who are going to make pitchers work and get on base. That's the focus. That's what they want to spend their money on.
Nick Green has done a nice job filling in while Jed Lowrie works his way back, but making pitchers work is not exactly his forte -- he swings at 39 percent of pitches out of the strike zone. (The major league average is somewhere around 24 percent.)
Kevin Youkilis swings at 18.2 percent of pitches out of the strike zone. J.D. Drew swings at 17.6 percent.
Scutaro, so far this season, swings at 11.5 percent.
In fact, check out the American League leaderboard:
1. Scutaro: 11.5 percent
2. Nick Swisher: 16.7 percent
3. Bobby Abreu: 16.7 percent
4. Chone Figgins: 17.9 percent
5. Denard Span: 17.1 percent
Scutaro is far and away the best in the American League at laying off pitches that are out of the strike zone. At the same time, though, he's terrific at making contact at the ball in the strike zone -- he has a contact rate of 96.1 percent when the ball is in the strike zone, third-best in the American League.
Jason Bay, for a little perspective, makes contact when he swings at a ball in the strike zone just 80.5 percent of the time. Even Youkilis and Drew both are under 90 percent.
Scutaro will make pitchers throw strikes and is able to put the ball in play. Small wonder his on-base percentage (.384) ranks 11th in the American League this year, right in between Justin Morneau and Miguel Cabrera. Among current Red Sox, only Youkilis (.419) ranks higher.
In the field
It's not just that Scutaro comes across as a good defensive shortstop through John Dewan's plus/minus system.
So far this season, he's the best.
So far this season, Scutaro has earned a plus-21 for plays made, according to Dewan's system, and has saved 16 runs -- tops in the major leagues. (Jack Wilson is at plus-20, and Elvis Andrus is at plus-10. No one else is in double digits. Nick Green is at plus-4. Julio Lugo is at minus-15.)
A year ago, while only playing part-time at shortstop, he earned a plus-12 and saved nine runs, good for eighth in the major leagues.
All that time, though, he also was playing part-time at third base -- where he earned himself a plus-17 on Dewan's scale and saved 13 runs. Only Adrian Beltre (plus-32) and Jack Hannahan (plus-21) ranked higher. Even Blue Jays teammate Scott Rolen, well known as one of the best defensive third basemen in the game, only recorded a plus-13.
Imagine having Scutaro available to play both shortstop and third base both this season and next. Kevin Youkilis -- a player whose defensive numbers consistently are far better at first base than at third -- could play first base full-time. Lowell could take some days off. Lowrie could take some days off.
***
Scutaro, for whatever reason, always has been seen as a useful utility infielder but not much more. He's almost 34 years old but didn't get more than 100 plate appearances in a single season until just five years ago. (Surprise, surprise: It was with Billy Beane's Oakland Athletics.)
He's never been highly coveted. When the A's traded him to the Blue Jays, in fact, they received only minor league pitchers Kristian Bell and Graham Godfrey. (Our research might be off, but we believe Bell starred in "Forgetting Sarah Marshall" and Godfrey played the voice of Iago in "Aladdin." Not much of a trade.)
He's making just $1.1 million this season -- and he's a free agent after this season.
Epstein would do well to inquire about Scutaro the next time he calls Ricciardi -- he could pretend he's calling about Halladay, in fact, and then work his way to the 34-year-old career utility infielder. If he can't get a deal done this month, he ought to have Scutaro's agent on speed-dial once free agency begins this winter.
The best teams are built with a specific plan in mind. Few players both are dirt-cheap affordable and fit the Red Sox plan perfectly. But Scutaro is one of those players.
Friday, June 19, 2009
Epstein in uncharted waters as July 31 approaches
With all the talk about John Smoltz and Brad Penny and Jed Lowrie and David Ortiz and the July 31 trade deadline, something seems to have been overlooked: This Red Sox team doesn't need anything.
Let that sink in for a minute.
Barring injury, this Red Sox team doesn't need anything. There's nothing at all out there that would give them reason to trade away Michael Bowden or Josh Reddick or Casey Kelly.
There's not much on the market that would be an upgrade on Lowrie. There's not much on the market that would be an upgrade on Ortiz. There's not much on the market that would be an upgrade on Rocco Baldelli or Mark Kotsay. There's not much on the market that would be an upgrade on anyone in the majors' best bullpen.
That's almost unfathomable. The July trading deadline is fast approaching, and the first item on the agenda of general manager Theo Epstein is going to involve trading away a former All-Star Game starter or doing some creative juggling with the two-time Most Valuable Player of the World Baseball Classic so as to make room for a certain first-ballot Hall of Famer.
It's amazing how far this franchise has come in the last six years. But the position of power in which the Red Sox find themselves now only looks more amazing when you look back at some of the deadline moves the Red Sox have had to make since Epstein took over as general manager:
2003
Needs: Pitching, pitching and pitching. John Burkett and Casey Fossum both had ERAs over 5.00, and Ramiro Mendoza looked like he was still being paid by the Yankees rather than by the Red Sox. Someone named Jason Shiell allowed five earned runs in one three-game stretch in the last week of June.
Acquisitions: Byung-Hyun Kim, Scott Sauerbeck, Scott Williamson and Jeff Suppan.
Kim pitched better than posterity has given him credit for; he had a 3.18 ERA in 49 appearances, including five starts. Suppan, on the other hand, wasn't particularly effective -- he had a 5.92 ERA in his 10 starts in August and September and did not pitch in the postseason. Sauerbeck, too, was something of a disaster; he allowed 12 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings pitched and made just one postseason appearance.
Williamson, though, almost pitched the Red Sox to the World Series. (We all remember it: "Timlin in the eighth. Williamson in the ninth.") By the ALCS against the Yankees, he effectively had become the Red Sox closer -- and had Grady Little opted to use him when Pedro Martinez ran into trouble, he could have clinched a pennant for the Red Sox.
2004
Needs: Defensive help -- and a total shakeup, particularly after Nomar Garciaparra made three errors in two midsummer games at Yankee Stadium and sat out the third. The Red Sox were swept.
Acquisitions: Orlando Cabrera, Doug Mienkiewicz, Dave Roberts.
You know the story.
2005
Needs: Pitching, mostly. Jonathan Papelbon was a starter. Curt Schilling was the closer. Wade Miller was in and out of the rotation. Chaos.
Acquisitions: Chad Bradford, Alex Cora, Jose Cruz Jr.
"Moneyball" hero Bradford had a 3.86 ERA in 31 appearances out of the bullpen, but he allowed five earned runs in his final 5 2/3 innings as the Red Sox slipped into a tie for first place with the Yankees in the final week of the season. (They then would be swept by the eventual World Series champion White Sox in the Division Series.)
Cora spent the next three seasons as a valuable utility infielder with the Red Sox and won a pair of World Series rings. Cruz, on the other hand, appeared in just four games with the Red Sox before he was placed on waivers and claimed by the Los Angeles Dodgers.
2006
Needs: Pitching, mostly. Bronson Arroyo had been traded away, and Matt Clement, Kyle Snyder and Lenny DiNardo weren't exactly doing the trick. The bullpen was populated by guys who were too young (Manny Delcarmen) or too ineffective (Jermaine Van Buren) or both (Craig Hansen).
Acquisitions: Bryan Corey.
The Red Sox were in first place by a game when the deadline passed despite a thin starting rotation and an even thinner bullpen. Corey had a 4.57 ERA in 21 2/3 innings with the Red Sox down the stretch as part of a pitching staff that saw 27 different pitchers make at least five appearances. (So far this year, the Red Sox have had just 14 pitchers make at least two appearances -- a particularly impressive feat given that they carry 12 on the staff at any one time.)
The Red Sox lost seven of their next nine after the deadline passed and had a 5.27 ERA as a team en route to a third-place finish behind the Yankees and the Blue Jays.
2007
Needs: Relief pitching. The Red Sox led the American League East by seven games at the deadline and had a formidable starting rotation, particularly with rookie Jon Lester making his way back from cancer treatment. But things got a little dicey deep in the bullpen after you got past Jonathan Papelbon, Hideki Okajima and the ageless Mike Timlin.
Acquisitions: Eric Gagne.
Whoops. Gagne had a 6.75 ERA in 20 appearances down the stretch and a 6.23 ERA in five postseason appearances. It ended up being youngster Manny Delcarmen who stabilized the bullpen, compiling a 1.52 ERA in August and September.
2008
Needs: For Manny to Be Manny somewhere else. Oh, and pitching. Clay Buchholz flopped in his first full-time opportunity with the Red Sox, and Bartolo Colon (seven starts) and David Pauley (two starts) weren't exactly what the doctor ordered.
Acquisitions: Jason Bay, Paul Byrd.
In the team's most ground-shaking trade since 2004, the Red Sox shipped Ramirez to the Los Angeles Dodgers in a three-way deal that landed them Bay from the Pittsburgh Pirates. Ramirez immediately went on a tear that may or may not have been chemically assisted. Bay hit .293 and slugged .527 down the stretch and hit .341 and slugged .634 as the Red Sox took the Tampa Bay Rays to Game 7 in the ALCS.
Byrd made eight starts and compiled a 4.78 ERA. He was included on the postseason roster as a long reliever but made only one appearance.
2009
Needs: None. As long as Lowrie can play above-average defense at shortstop, there aren't any. The Red Sox have never enjoyed the depth of talent they enjoy this year. Never.
Let that sink in for a minute.
Barring injury, this Red Sox team doesn't need anything. There's nothing at all out there that would give them reason to trade away Michael Bowden or Josh Reddick or Casey Kelly.
There's not much on the market that would be an upgrade on Lowrie. There's not much on the market that would be an upgrade on Ortiz. There's not much on the market that would be an upgrade on Rocco Baldelli or Mark Kotsay. There's not much on the market that would be an upgrade on anyone in the majors' best bullpen.
That's almost unfathomable. The July trading deadline is fast approaching, and the first item on the agenda of general manager Theo Epstein is going to involve trading away a former All-Star Game starter or doing some creative juggling with the two-time Most Valuable Player of the World Baseball Classic so as to make room for a certain first-ballot Hall of Famer.
It's amazing how far this franchise has come in the last six years. But the position of power in which the Red Sox find themselves now only looks more amazing when you look back at some of the deadline moves the Red Sox have had to make since Epstein took over as general manager:
2003
Needs: Pitching, pitching and pitching. John Burkett and Casey Fossum both had ERAs over 5.00, and Ramiro Mendoza looked like he was still being paid by the Yankees rather than by the Red Sox. Someone named Jason Shiell allowed five earned runs in one three-game stretch in the last week of June.
Acquisitions: Byung-Hyun Kim, Scott Sauerbeck, Scott Williamson and Jeff Suppan.
Kim pitched better than posterity has given him credit for; he had a 3.18 ERA in 49 appearances, including five starts. Suppan, on the other hand, wasn't particularly effective -- he had a 5.92 ERA in his 10 starts in August and September and did not pitch in the postseason. Sauerbeck, too, was something of a disaster; he allowed 12 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings pitched and made just one postseason appearance.
Williamson, though, almost pitched the Red Sox to the World Series. (We all remember it: "Timlin in the eighth. Williamson in the ninth.") By the ALCS against the Yankees, he effectively had become the Red Sox closer -- and had Grady Little opted to use him when Pedro Martinez ran into trouble, he could have clinched a pennant for the Red Sox.
2004
Needs: Defensive help -- and a total shakeup, particularly after Nomar Garciaparra made three errors in two midsummer games at Yankee Stadium and sat out the third. The Red Sox were swept.
Acquisitions: Orlando Cabrera, Doug Mienkiewicz, Dave Roberts.
You know the story.
2005
Needs: Pitching, mostly. Jonathan Papelbon was a starter. Curt Schilling was the closer. Wade Miller was in and out of the rotation. Chaos.
Acquisitions: Chad Bradford, Alex Cora, Jose Cruz Jr.
"Moneyball" hero Bradford had a 3.86 ERA in 31 appearances out of the bullpen, but he allowed five earned runs in his final 5 2/3 innings as the Red Sox slipped into a tie for first place with the Yankees in the final week of the season. (They then would be swept by the eventual World Series champion White Sox in the Division Series.)
Cora spent the next three seasons as a valuable utility infielder with the Red Sox and won a pair of World Series rings. Cruz, on the other hand, appeared in just four games with the Red Sox before he was placed on waivers and claimed by the Los Angeles Dodgers.
2006
Needs: Pitching, mostly. Bronson Arroyo had been traded away, and Matt Clement, Kyle Snyder and Lenny DiNardo weren't exactly doing the trick. The bullpen was populated by guys who were too young (Manny Delcarmen) or too ineffective (Jermaine Van Buren) or both (Craig Hansen).
Acquisitions: Bryan Corey.
The Red Sox were in first place by a game when the deadline passed despite a thin starting rotation and an even thinner bullpen. Corey had a 4.57 ERA in 21 2/3 innings with the Red Sox down the stretch as part of a pitching staff that saw 27 different pitchers make at least five appearances. (So far this year, the Red Sox have had just 14 pitchers make at least two appearances -- a particularly impressive feat given that they carry 12 on the staff at any one time.)
The Red Sox lost seven of their next nine after the deadline passed and had a 5.27 ERA as a team en route to a third-place finish behind the Yankees and the Blue Jays.
2007
Needs: Relief pitching. The Red Sox led the American League East by seven games at the deadline and had a formidable starting rotation, particularly with rookie Jon Lester making his way back from cancer treatment. But things got a little dicey deep in the bullpen after you got past Jonathan Papelbon, Hideki Okajima and the ageless Mike Timlin.
Acquisitions: Eric Gagne.
Whoops. Gagne had a 6.75 ERA in 20 appearances down the stretch and a 6.23 ERA in five postseason appearances. It ended up being youngster Manny Delcarmen who stabilized the bullpen, compiling a 1.52 ERA in August and September.
2008
Needs: For Manny to Be Manny somewhere else. Oh, and pitching. Clay Buchholz flopped in his first full-time opportunity with the Red Sox, and Bartolo Colon (seven starts) and David Pauley (two starts) weren't exactly what the doctor ordered.
Acquisitions: Jason Bay, Paul Byrd.
In the team's most ground-shaking trade since 2004, the Red Sox shipped Ramirez to the Los Angeles Dodgers in a three-way deal that landed them Bay from the Pittsburgh Pirates. Ramirez immediately went on a tear that may or may not have been chemically assisted. Bay hit .293 and slugged .527 down the stretch and hit .341 and slugged .634 as the Red Sox took the Tampa Bay Rays to Game 7 in the ALCS.
Byrd made eight starts and compiled a 4.78 ERA. He was included on the postseason roster as a long reliever but made only one appearance.
2009
Needs: None. As long as Lowrie can play above-average defense at shortstop, there aren't any. The Red Sox have never enjoyed the depth of talent they enjoy this year. Never.
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