Mike Cameron, as a Red Sox fanbase prone to panic already is aware, will sit out the team's doubleheader on Wednesday against Boston College and Northeastern. Cameron tweaked his groin on Sunday and is going to take things easy for a few days.
That's the adventure that comes with counting on a 37-year-old center fielder. Good health isn't exactly a guarantee.
(This is why the Red Sox were reluctant to commit $15 million a year for four or five years to Jason Bay, who will turn 36 years old in his final season with the Mets should his $17 million option vest. That's another discussion for another time.)
This tweak might be minor, but another injury might not be so minor. There just aren't many outfielders at Cameron's age who can play every day. Only five outfielders last season played more than 140 games at the age of 35 or older:
* Cameron, age 36
* Bobby Abreu, age 35
* Johnny Damon, age 35
* Jermaine Dye, age 35
* Ichiro Suzuki, age 35
* Randy Winn, age 35
Dye is still looking for a job. Damon had to wait until after Valentine's Day to land a job of his own. Winn will be a part-time outfielder with the Yankees. Older outfielders, especially in an era without the fountains of youth the previous era enjoyed, aren't particularly reliable.
Should Cameron go down, the Red Sox have a capable backup in Jeremy Hermida, a corner outfielder who would push Jacoby Ellsbury back to center field. But the Red Sox all of a sudden would be very thin in the outfield, and it might become necessary to call upon almost-ready-for-prime-time prospects Ryan Kalish and/or Josh Reddick, who both will start the season at Triple-A Pawtucket.
How might they fare?
There are ways to project their performance. One such measure is called "Major League Equivalents," a device invented by Bill James in the mid-1980s that can approximate, to a certain degree, what a player might do in the major leagues.
Here's that approximation for Kalish and Reddick:
(MLEs calculated by MinorLeagueSplits.com.)
Ryan Kalish
Single-A (127 plate appearances): .306/.435/.514
Double-A (419 plate appearances): .263/.336/.772
MLE: .216/.270/.337
Josh Reddick
Double-A (274 plate appearances): .273/.349/.522
Triple-A (77 plate appearances): .127/.190/.183
MLE: .111/.165/.167
Keep in mind that the MLEs don't factor in year-to-year improvement. In other words, while Reddick might have been expected to OPS under .400 if he'd played last season in the major leagues, he wouldn't be expected to do so if he plays this season in the major leagues. Consider the final MLE of Dustin Pedroia before he made the leap to the major leagues:
2006 in Triple-A: .294/.385/.454
2006 MLE: .243/.317/.355
2007 in majors: .317/.380/.442
Pedroia came far closer to his actual Triple-A numbers from the previous season than to his major-league equivalent -- in large part because he'd had almost 493 extra plate appearances at Triple-A Pawtucket and almost 100 more in the major leagues to hone his swing.
But the above numbers still do tell you something. What's most interesting is that Kalish -- who hasn't yet played a game at Triple-A -- had better major-league equivalent numbers than Reddick. His advanced plate discipline has quite a bit to do with that. Reddick walked just 35 times in almost 350 plate appearances while Kalish walked 67 times in under 550 plate appearances.
Reddick got a handful of at-bats at Pawtucket last season as well as in the major leagues. He's on the 40-man roster, too. Kalish hasn't yet climbed that rung of the ladder. Should one or both be needed, though, the above MLE numbers indicate that Kalish might be closer to ready than Reddick is.
Showing posts with label kalish. Show all posts
Showing posts with label kalish. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Sunday, December 27, 2009
Jacoby Ellsbury really is expendable
"You can never have enough center fielders."
-- Theo Epstein
The Red Sox general manager, about to enter his eighth season, has made it a focus to accumulate as much up-the-middle talent as he can. His captain has been his catcher (Jason Varitek). His first major trade was for a shortstop (Orlando Cabrera). His first impact rookie was a second baseman (Dustin Pedroia). His first out-of-nowhere World Series hero was a center fielder (Jacoby Ellsbury). His first major trade -- even though it was made in his absence -- was built around a shortstop (Hanley Ramirez).
And of the top 15 position-player prospects in the organization, according to SoxProspects.com, 12 play either catcher, shortstop, second base or center field. Five of the team's top 14 prospects, in fact, look like they'll have the ability to play center field in the major leagues: Reymond Fuentes, Ryan Kalish, Che-Hsuan Lin, Josh Reddick, and Ryan Westmoreland.
(Reddick is the most borderline. His future likely is in right field or left field. SoxProspects, though, specifically points out that "Reddick has the range to be a full time major league center fielder.")
That's what makes today's note from the Chicago Tribune's Phil Rogers so interesting:
Worth watching: If the Red Sox wind up with Matt Holliday or Jason Bay, the Cubs immediately would make a major effort to land Jacoby Ellsbury to fill their center field/leadoff hole, according to sources. That scenario helps explain why the Cubs have been so patient in studying their options. The best way to do such a trade might be for GM Jim Hendry to facilitate a three-team deal that sends first baseman Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres to the Red Sox by packaging a group of prospects, possibly including one or two of their top ones, such as third baseman Josh Vitters, shortstop Hak-Ju Lee and pitchers Andrew Cashner and Jay Jackson.
Ellsbury, of course, already has been associated with the Gonzalez trade rumors this winter. Proponents of including Ellsbury in a package generally have focused on his subpar defensive numbers, according to advanced metrics, and his relatively low on-base percentage at the top of the Red Sox lineup.
There's an even better reason for the Red Sox to look hard at moving Ellsbury if it means a big upgrade elsewhere -- especially if that upgrade is Gonzalez.
Epstein has made Ellsbury expendable.
The reason Ellsbury is so valuable is because he can produce so much while earning so little. He won't even be eligible for salary arbitration until next season, and his team then still will have three years' worth of control of his rights until he hits the open market. Even those who believe Ellsbury has become overrated can't deny that his production far outweighs his salary -- and will do so at least until he hits his second year of arbitration.
That's reason enough to hang onto him unless there's a player behind him ready to fill in with similar production at a similarly low salary -- and, thus, similar bang for the buck. The Red Sox have a half-dozen players in their minor-league system with the potential to do just that.
No, none of them are ready yet. Reddick is closest by virtue of his major-league experience last season. Kalish likely will make his major-league debut at some point next season. But it's not unreasonable to imagine the Red Sox opening the 2010 season with Mike Cameron in center field and Kalish and Reddick both waiting in the wings. Fuentes, Lin and Westmoreland all are 21 years old or younger, but all three could come along within the next three or four years.
There's no reason to hoard so much young talent it doesn't fit on the major-league roster. Kalish and Reddick won't do the Red Sox any good if they're tearing apart the International League.
(This, of course, assumes they'll tear apart the International League. You can't ever make that assumption with individual prospects. The odds that both Kalish and Reddick flop, though, seem pretty minimal.)
The Red Sox can get more in a trade for Ellsbury than they can for Kalish or Reddick simply because Ellsbury already has demonstrated he can hold his own at the major-league level. Trading Ellsbury, however, would have left the Red Sox with a void in center field if not for the signing of Cameron -- a bridge, if you will, to the prospects who seem to be on the way.
If the Cubs are willing to offer the Red Sox enough in the way of prospects for Ellsbury that the Padres don't insist on Clay Buchholz in a trade for Gonzalez, that's a move the Red Sox should make without hesitating.
-- Theo Epstein
The Red Sox general manager, about to enter his eighth season, has made it a focus to accumulate as much up-the-middle talent as he can. His captain has been his catcher (Jason Varitek). His first major trade was for a shortstop (Orlando Cabrera). His first impact rookie was a second baseman (Dustin Pedroia). His first out-of-nowhere World Series hero was a center fielder (Jacoby Ellsbury). His first major trade -- even though it was made in his absence -- was built around a shortstop (Hanley Ramirez).
And of the top 15 position-player prospects in the organization, according to SoxProspects.com, 12 play either catcher, shortstop, second base or center field. Five of the team's top 14 prospects, in fact, look like they'll have the ability to play center field in the major leagues: Reymond Fuentes, Ryan Kalish, Che-Hsuan Lin, Josh Reddick, and Ryan Westmoreland.
(Reddick is the most borderline. His future likely is in right field or left field. SoxProspects, though, specifically points out that "Reddick has the range to be a full time major league center fielder.")
That's what makes today's note from the Chicago Tribune's Phil Rogers so interesting:
Worth watching: If the Red Sox wind up with Matt Holliday or Jason Bay, the Cubs immediately would make a major effort to land Jacoby Ellsbury to fill their center field/leadoff hole, according to sources. That scenario helps explain why the Cubs have been so patient in studying their options. The best way to do such a trade might be for GM Jim Hendry to facilitate a three-team deal that sends first baseman Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres to the Red Sox by packaging a group of prospects, possibly including one or two of their top ones, such as third baseman Josh Vitters, shortstop Hak-Ju Lee and pitchers Andrew Cashner and Jay Jackson.
Ellsbury, of course, already has been associated with the Gonzalez trade rumors this winter. Proponents of including Ellsbury in a package generally have focused on his subpar defensive numbers, according to advanced metrics, and his relatively low on-base percentage at the top of the Red Sox lineup.
There's an even better reason for the Red Sox to look hard at moving Ellsbury if it means a big upgrade elsewhere -- especially if that upgrade is Gonzalez.
Epstein has made Ellsbury expendable.
The reason Ellsbury is so valuable is because he can produce so much while earning so little. He won't even be eligible for salary arbitration until next season, and his team then still will have three years' worth of control of his rights until he hits the open market. Even those who believe Ellsbury has become overrated can't deny that his production far outweighs his salary -- and will do so at least until he hits his second year of arbitration.
That's reason enough to hang onto him unless there's a player behind him ready to fill in with similar production at a similarly low salary -- and, thus, similar bang for the buck. The Red Sox have a half-dozen players in their minor-league system with the potential to do just that.
No, none of them are ready yet. Reddick is closest by virtue of his major-league experience last season. Kalish likely will make his major-league debut at some point next season. But it's not unreasonable to imagine the Red Sox opening the 2010 season with Mike Cameron in center field and Kalish and Reddick both waiting in the wings. Fuentes, Lin and Westmoreland all are 21 years old or younger, but all three could come along within the next three or four years.
There's no reason to hoard so much young talent it doesn't fit on the major-league roster. Kalish and Reddick won't do the Red Sox any good if they're tearing apart the International League.
(This, of course, assumes they'll tear apart the International League. You can't ever make that assumption with individual prospects. The odds that both Kalish and Reddick flop, though, seem pretty minimal.)
The Red Sox can get more in a trade for Ellsbury than they can for Kalish or Reddick simply because Ellsbury already has demonstrated he can hold his own at the major-league level. Trading Ellsbury, however, would have left the Red Sox with a void in center field if not for the signing of Cameron -- a bridge, if you will, to the prospects who seem to be on the way.
If the Cubs are willing to offer the Red Sox enough in the way of prospects for Ellsbury that the Padres don't insist on Clay Buchholz in a trade for Gonzalez, that's a move the Red Sox should make without hesitating.
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Westmoreland tops Kelly on BA list
Casey Kelly and Ryan Westmoreland ranked first and second on Baseball America's Top 10 prospects list for the Red Sox released today. No surprise there.
The surprise, though, might be the order in which they were listed. Kelly's sensational first season on the mound garnered him most of the hype -- but the experts at Baseball America like Westmoreland just a little bit better.
"He's a potential 30-30 player who one day could bat third in the Boston lineup," Jim Callis wrote.
Without doing too much copy-and-paste from the Baseball America scouting reports, here's a little bit of what Callis had to say about some of the big names down on the farm:
* Kelly, the No. 2 prospect on the list, has the best fastball, the best curveball, the best changeup and the best control in the organization, and he "may not need more than another year in the minors."
* Josh Reddick vaulted Lars Anderson for the No. 3 spot on the list thanks to his raw power, his speed and the "unbelievable release and accuracy" of his throwing arm in the outfield. His patience at the plate, an issue a year ago, improved in the minor leagues but regressed upon his promotion to the major leagues.
* Anderson, the No. 1 prospect a year ago, fell to No. 4 thanks to a disappointing season at Double-A Portland a year ago. "With the loft in his swing and the leverage in his big frame, Anderson is still the system's best power-hitting prospect," Callis wrote. It's certainly far too early to write off a young slugger who didn't turn 22 until after the minor-league season ended. He'll probably start next season back at Portland.
* It's not hard to see why the Red Sox like Ryan Kalish, the No. 5 prospect on the list. Not only did he hit 24 doubles and 18 home runs last season, but "He manages his at-bats as well as anyone in the system, waiting for pitches he can drive and taking walks if they don't come," Callis wrote. Baseball America expects Kalish to open the season playing with Reddick at Triple-A Pawtucket.
* Most of the players on the list -- Junichi Tazawa, Jose Iglesias, etc. -- are household names by now among Red Sox fans. Derrik Gibson, though, isn't yet one of them. The 20-year-old middle infielder came in at No. 10 on the list after stealing 28 bases in 33 tries a year ago and scoring 54 runs in just 255 at-bats. "Gibson is poised for a breakout 2010 season at (Single-A) Greenville," Callis wrote.
The surprise, though, might be the order in which they were listed. Kelly's sensational first season on the mound garnered him most of the hype -- but the experts at Baseball America like Westmoreland just a little bit better.
"He's a potential 30-30 player who one day could bat third in the Boston lineup," Jim Callis wrote.
Without doing too much copy-and-paste from the Baseball America scouting reports, here's a little bit of what Callis had to say about some of the big names down on the farm:
* Kelly, the No. 2 prospect on the list, has the best fastball, the best curveball, the best changeup and the best control in the organization, and he "may not need more than another year in the minors."
* Josh Reddick vaulted Lars Anderson for the No. 3 spot on the list thanks to his raw power, his speed and the "unbelievable release and accuracy" of his throwing arm in the outfield. His patience at the plate, an issue a year ago, improved in the minor leagues but regressed upon his promotion to the major leagues.
* Anderson, the No. 1 prospect a year ago, fell to No. 4 thanks to a disappointing season at Double-A Portland a year ago. "With the loft in his swing and the leverage in his big frame, Anderson is still the system's best power-hitting prospect," Callis wrote. It's certainly far too early to write off a young slugger who didn't turn 22 until after the minor-league season ended. He'll probably start next season back at Portland.
* It's not hard to see why the Red Sox like Ryan Kalish, the No. 5 prospect on the list. Not only did he hit 24 doubles and 18 home runs last season, but "He manages his at-bats as well as anyone in the system, waiting for pitches he can drive and taking walks if they don't come," Callis wrote. Baseball America expects Kalish to open the season playing with Reddick at Triple-A Pawtucket.
* Most of the players on the list -- Junichi Tazawa, Jose Iglesias, etc. -- are household names by now among Red Sox fans. Derrik Gibson, though, isn't yet one of them. The 20-year-old middle infielder came in at No. 10 on the list after stealing 28 bases in 33 tries a year ago and scoring 54 runs in just 255 at-bats. "Gibson is poised for a breakout 2010 season at (Single-A) Greenville," Callis wrote.
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Let's revisit Adrian Gonzalez in July
Four reasons why an Adrian Gonzalez trade will make more sense on July 31 than it does now:
1. San Diego's motivation
If Jed Hoyer trades Adrian Gonzalez right now, he'll be announcing to his fan base that he's given up on the 2010 season. Done. Finished. Over and out. He might bring back a nice haul of ready-for-prime-time talent -- especially if he lands Buchholz and Ellsbury -- but the only reason Padres fans have even heard of Buchholz and Ellsbury is because they're inundated with Red Sox coverage on national networks and Web sites.
(Quick: Name San Diego's top prospect, the first baseman who would replace Gonzalez if Hoyer traded him. Too tough? OK. Quick: Name a player on San Diego's roster.)
A trade of Gonzalez would tell the casual fan of the Padres to head off to the beach and not bother reporting back until 2011 or 2012. If Hoyer holds onto Gonzalez until July, though, he at least gives his fans reason to care while he kicks off the rebuilding process -- and it's unlikely the value for Gonzalez is going to decrease at all between now and July 31.
2. Jacoby Ellsbury's defense
Dreamboat certainly has all the tools -- except for an arm, but that's forgiveable -- to be an elite defensive center fielder. Advanced defensive metrics, though, suggest he had a miserable season in center field last season. FanGraphs' Ultimate Zone Rating statistic ranked him last among center fielders with a minus-18.6.
Here's the issue: Ultimate Zone Rating, especially when it comes to outfielders, is subject to random fluctuations and can't be quoted as gospel the way batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage can. Consider the evaluation of Torii Hunter in center field over the past few seasons:
* 2009: minus-2.1
* 2008: minus-13.0
* 2007: minus-6.5
* 2006: minus-11.6
* 2005: 4.5
* 2004: minus-0.2
* 2003: 13.1
Before the Red Sox conclude that Ellsbury can't play center field on a permanent basis, it might be worth using the first three months of the season to see if his numbers drift back to where his physical skill set suggests they should be.
3. Clay Buchholz's ascension
In case you missed it, the skinny righty looked like one of the best pitchers in baseball not too long after the Red Sox called him up for good. From Aug. 8 until Sept. 24, Buchholz went 6-2 (if you care about that sort of thing) with a 2.37 ERA and an opponents' OPS of under .600. He struck out 44 hitters in 64 2/3 innings and walked just 22. Against Toronto on Aug. 29, he went 8 1/3 innings and allowed just one run, striking out nine Blue Jays in the process.
"We’ve always been a champion of Clay and his potential," Theo Epstein said after the Cameron and Lackey press conferences. “He started to show it last year, and there was a six-start stretch in August and September where he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. We think that’s what he is. We think that’s what he can become. You’re not talking about a young, unproven guy anymore. We still think he’s a top-of-the-rotation guy. He’s under control for five years to this ball club. He’s got the makeup to succeed in Boston. He’s got the stuff to succeed in the American League East."
The Yankees have refused to trade Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes. The Rays aren't going to trade David Price. The Braves won't even talk about Tommy Hanson.
If Buchholz can show next spring that his six-week run of starts last season wasn't a fluke, the Red Sox aren't going to trade him, either. That's not the type of arm you let get away -- even for a bat like Adrian Gonzalez.
4. Ryan Kalish's progress -- and Josh Reddick's, too
Should the Red Sox trade away Ellsbury, someone will have to play left field -- and the hope here is that that someone isn't Xavier Nady.
Neither Kalish nor Reddick are ready to start the 2010 season as an everyday player with the Red Sox. Reddick has all of 62 career plate appearances in the major leagues and not much more than that at Triple-A. Kalish hasn't even yet touched Triple-A.
But Kalish and Reddick both are viewed as cornerstone-type outfielders who made it easier for Epstein to bid farewell to Jason Bay. They might not be ready by Opening Day, but both ought to be ready by the time Mike Cameron's two-year contract expires.
One or both also might be ready for a promotion in July -- and if Ellsbury is dealt away, either Kalish or Reddick could step in for him. Epstein won't know if either of the two outfielders is ready, though, until he's had a chance to see how they perform in April and May.
1. San Diego's motivation
If Jed Hoyer trades Adrian Gonzalez right now, he'll be announcing to his fan base that he's given up on the 2010 season. Done. Finished. Over and out. He might bring back a nice haul of ready-for-prime-time talent -- especially if he lands Buchholz and Ellsbury -- but the only reason Padres fans have even heard of Buchholz and Ellsbury is because they're inundated with Red Sox coverage on national networks and Web sites.
(Quick: Name San Diego's top prospect, the first baseman who would replace Gonzalez if Hoyer traded him. Too tough? OK. Quick: Name a player on San Diego's roster.)
A trade of Gonzalez would tell the casual fan of the Padres to head off to the beach and not bother reporting back until 2011 or 2012. If Hoyer holds onto Gonzalez until July, though, he at least gives his fans reason to care while he kicks off the rebuilding process -- and it's unlikely the value for Gonzalez is going to decrease at all between now and July 31.
2. Jacoby Ellsbury's defense
Dreamboat certainly has all the tools -- except for an arm, but that's forgiveable -- to be an elite defensive center fielder. Advanced defensive metrics, though, suggest he had a miserable season in center field last season. FanGraphs' Ultimate Zone Rating statistic ranked him last among center fielders with a minus-18.6.
Here's the issue: Ultimate Zone Rating, especially when it comes to outfielders, is subject to random fluctuations and can't be quoted as gospel the way batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage can. Consider the evaluation of Torii Hunter in center field over the past few seasons:
* 2009: minus-2.1
* 2008: minus-13.0
* 2007: minus-6.5
* 2006: minus-11.6
* 2005: 4.5
* 2004: minus-0.2
* 2003: 13.1
Before the Red Sox conclude that Ellsbury can't play center field on a permanent basis, it might be worth using the first three months of the season to see if his numbers drift back to where his physical skill set suggests they should be.
3. Clay Buchholz's ascension
In case you missed it, the skinny righty looked like one of the best pitchers in baseball not too long after the Red Sox called him up for good. From Aug. 8 until Sept. 24, Buchholz went 6-2 (if you care about that sort of thing) with a 2.37 ERA and an opponents' OPS of under .600. He struck out 44 hitters in 64 2/3 innings and walked just 22. Against Toronto on Aug. 29, he went 8 1/3 innings and allowed just one run, striking out nine Blue Jays in the process.
"We’ve always been a champion of Clay and his potential," Theo Epstein said after the Cameron and Lackey press conferences. “He started to show it last year, and there was a six-start stretch in August and September where he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. We think that’s what he is. We think that’s what he can become. You’re not talking about a young, unproven guy anymore. We still think he’s a top-of-the-rotation guy. He’s under control for five years to this ball club. He’s got the makeup to succeed in Boston. He’s got the stuff to succeed in the American League East."
The Yankees have refused to trade Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes. The Rays aren't going to trade David Price. The Braves won't even talk about Tommy Hanson.
If Buchholz can show next spring that his six-week run of starts last season wasn't a fluke, the Red Sox aren't going to trade him, either. That's not the type of arm you let get away -- even for a bat like Adrian Gonzalez.
4. Ryan Kalish's progress -- and Josh Reddick's, too
Should the Red Sox trade away Ellsbury, someone will have to play left field -- and the hope here is that that someone isn't Xavier Nady.
Neither Kalish nor Reddick are ready to start the 2010 season as an everyday player with the Red Sox. Reddick has all of 62 career plate appearances in the major leagues and not much more than that at Triple-A. Kalish hasn't even yet touched Triple-A.
But Kalish and Reddick both are viewed as cornerstone-type outfielders who made it easier for Epstein to bid farewell to Jason Bay. They might not be ready by Opening Day, but both ought to be ready by the time Mike Cameron's two-year contract expires.
One or both also might be ready for a promotion in July -- and if Ellsbury is dealt away, either Kalish or Reddick could step in for him. Epstein won't know if either of the two outfielders is ready, though, until he's had a chance to see how they perform in April and May.
Thursday, December 3, 2009
Confidence, power growing for Kalish
(This story appeared in the print edition of the Union Leader.)
Time was once when Ryan Kalish believed himself something of a slap hitter.
Home runs were few and far between for an athlete built powerfully enough to be offered a football scholarship to Virginia. Doubles weren’t exactly flying off his bat, either. His on-base percentage – .471 at Single-A Lowell in 2007 and .376 at Single-A Greenville in 2008 – seemed to be his ticket to the major leagues.
Not so much anymore. Kalish hit 18 home runs last season in barely 500 at-bats split between Single-A Salem and Double-A Portland, and his .457 slugging percentage ranked him fifth among Red Sox minor leaguers with at least 400 at-bats last season.
“In 2008, I was trying to make contact and flick balls over the infielders’ heads,” Kalish said. “This year, I had more of a mental approach where, ‘If I see this pitch, I’m going to absolutely destroy it,’ and that definitely helps me.”
When Baseball America releases its annual organization ranking in mid-December, Kalish willl almost certainly be among the top five prospects in the Red Sox system. He might even rank ahead of much-hyped first baseman Lars Anderson and fellow power-hitting outfielder Josh Reddick.
Come next spring, Kalish will have a chance to do what Reddick did a year ago. He’ll be under consideration to go to major-league camp in spring training, and he’ll be in position to make the leap to the major leagues if the Red Sox should need an outfielder.
The way Kalish hit with the Mesa Solar Sox in October and November only makes that leap more likely. Arizona Fall League statistics always should be taken with a grain of salt given the irregularity of hitters’ at-bats, but the outfielder hit .301 with a .384 on-base percentage in 73 at-bats this fall.
Reddick, for the sake of comparison, hit .189 in 95 at-bats in the Arizona Fall League a year ago. Aaron Bates, a first baseman who made a brief cameo in the major leagues in July, hit .200 in 25 at-bats in Arizona and struck out 14 times.
“Aaron Bates and Josh Reddick struggled here,” Kalish said by phone a few days before the AFL season ended. “It’s a testament to them that they came back this year – and look at what happened to them in getting to the big leagues. For me, it’s not the success. It’s the experience. They’re both great players, but this helped them get to the big leagues. I’m positive of that.”
Billy McMillon, the Mesa hitting coach who worked with Kalish at Single-A Greenville in 2008, is positive of a couple of other things: Kalish already was well on his way to the major leagues – and he was never, ever a slap hitter.
“In my humble opinion, Kalish overthought things,” McMillon said. “He thought, with the fact that he didn’t have 19 home runs last year, he thought he wasn’t driving the ball, but that doesn’t mean he wasn’t necessarily driving the ball. When he hit 19 or 20 home runs, he thinks he can drive the ball when it’s been there all along. I don’t think anyone would say he was a slap hitter last year. Things just worked out a little bit better in his favor. …
“Could he be a little stronger this year? Perhaps. But I don’t think anyone would think he was a slap hitter. It’s easy to look at home-run totals from one year to the next and say he developed power – well, not necessarily.”
On one hand, Kalish needed to figure that out for himself. On the other hand, though, he needed a little nudging to remember he wasn’t a guy who should be flicking pitches into center field and instead should be driving them up the gap.
“Everybody, especially when they’re young, has a tendency to try to do too much, to press,” McMillon said. “One of the big things I’ve been trying to get him to do is to trust his ability and to trust the work he’s put into it.”
That’s the type of straight talk Kalish wants from his coaches – and that goes for the guys playing with him, too, too.
Kalish became good friends this fall with Florida Marlins prospect Bryan Peterson, an outfielder with the Solar Sox who hit a team-best .379 with 12 extra-base hits in fewer than 100 at-bats. The two bounced ideas off each other pretty much anytime the inclination struck – in the batting cage, during outfield drills, between innings of games. Kalish even credited Peterson with an adjustment motion in the outfield that’s given him a little more oomph behind his throws.
“During the game, I’ll go up to him and ask him, ‘Hey, do you think that was the right play?’” Kalish said. “He’ll tell me straight up there. People are going to be out there trying to help me, but some people fish for compliments, and we’re straight up with each other. He comes up to me and asks if I think that was a strike, maybe, on a pitch he took. I’ll tell him, ‘Yeah, I think it was.’”
There’s a self-confidence in those words that might not have been there for Kalish a year ago – and that self-confidence has pushed him to the brink of the major leagues.
Time was once when Ryan Kalish believed himself something of a slap hitter.
Home runs were few and far between for an athlete built powerfully enough to be offered a football scholarship to Virginia. Doubles weren’t exactly flying off his bat, either. His on-base percentage – .471 at Single-A Lowell in 2007 and .376 at Single-A Greenville in 2008 – seemed to be his ticket to the major leagues.
Not so much anymore. Kalish hit 18 home runs last season in barely 500 at-bats split between Single-A Salem and Double-A Portland, and his .457 slugging percentage ranked him fifth among Red Sox minor leaguers with at least 400 at-bats last season.
“In 2008, I was trying to make contact and flick balls over the infielders’ heads,” Kalish said. “This year, I had more of a mental approach where, ‘If I see this pitch, I’m going to absolutely destroy it,’ and that definitely helps me.”
When Baseball America releases its annual organization ranking in mid-December, Kalish willl almost certainly be among the top five prospects in the Red Sox system. He might even rank ahead of much-hyped first baseman Lars Anderson and fellow power-hitting outfielder Josh Reddick.
Come next spring, Kalish will have a chance to do what Reddick did a year ago. He’ll be under consideration to go to major-league camp in spring training, and he’ll be in position to make the leap to the major leagues if the Red Sox should need an outfielder.
The way Kalish hit with the Mesa Solar Sox in October and November only makes that leap more likely. Arizona Fall League statistics always should be taken with a grain of salt given the irregularity of hitters’ at-bats, but the outfielder hit .301 with a .384 on-base percentage in 73 at-bats this fall.
Reddick, for the sake of comparison, hit .189 in 95 at-bats in the Arizona Fall League a year ago. Aaron Bates, a first baseman who made a brief cameo in the major leagues in July, hit .200 in 25 at-bats in Arizona and struck out 14 times.
“Aaron Bates and Josh Reddick struggled here,” Kalish said by phone a few days before the AFL season ended. “It’s a testament to them that they came back this year – and look at what happened to them in getting to the big leagues. For me, it’s not the success. It’s the experience. They’re both great players, but this helped them get to the big leagues. I’m positive of that.”
Billy McMillon, the Mesa hitting coach who worked with Kalish at Single-A Greenville in 2008, is positive of a couple of other things: Kalish already was well on his way to the major leagues – and he was never, ever a slap hitter.
“In my humble opinion, Kalish overthought things,” McMillon said. “He thought, with the fact that he didn’t have 19 home runs last year, he thought he wasn’t driving the ball, but that doesn’t mean he wasn’t necessarily driving the ball. When he hit 19 or 20 home runs, he thinks he can drive the ball when it’s been there all along. I don’t think anyone would say he was a slap hitter last year. Things just worked out a little bit better in his favor. …
“Could he be a little stronger this year? Perhaps. But I don’t think anyone would think he was a slap hitter. It’s easy to look at home-run totals from one year to the next and say he developed power – well, not necessarily.”
On one hand, Kalish needed to figure that out for himself. On the other hand, though, he needed a little nudging to remember he wasn’t a guy who should be flicking pitches into center field and instead should be driving them up the gap.
“Everybody, especially when they’re young, has a tendency to try to do too much, to press,” McMillon said. “One of the big things I’ve been trying to get him to do is to trust his ability and to trust the work he’s put into it.”
That’s the type of straight talk Kalish wants from his coaches – and that goes for the guys playing with him, too, too.
Kalish became good friends this fall with Florida Marlins prospect Bryan Peterson, an outfielder with the Solar Sox who hit a team-best .379 with 12 extra-base hits in fewer than 100 at-bats. The two bounced ideas off each other pretty much anytime the inclination struck – in the batting cage, during outfield drills, between innings of games. Kalish even credited Peterson with an adjustment motion in the outfield that’s given him a little more oomph behind his throws.
“During the game, I’ll go up to him and ask him, ‘Hey, do you think that was the right play?’” Kalish said. “He’ll tell me straight up there. People are going to be out there trying to help me, but some people fish for compliments, and we’re straight up with each other. He comes up to me and asks if I think that was a strike, maybe, on a pitch he took. I’ll tell him, ‘Yeah, I think it was.’”
There’s a self-confidence in those words that might not have been there for Kalish a year ago – and that self-confidence has pushed him to the brink of the major leagues.
Monday, November 30, 2009
Giving up a draft pick
The Toronto Blue Jays almost certainly will offer arbitration to shortstop Marco Scutaro on Tuesday, ensuring they'll receive a first-round draft pick from the team that signs him as a free agent. Should the Red Sox sign Scutaro, they would forfeit the No. 29 pick in the draft. Some have speculated that the Red Sox, a player-development machine, would shy away from signing a 34-year-old shortstop at the price of their first-round draft pick.
Not so fast.
A glance at the list of the names atop the list at SoxProspects.com and the names atop the Baseball America list to be released in a couple of weeks reveals that first-round draft picks aren't as critical to the deep-pocketed Red Sox as they are to other teams. Consider the SoxProspects.com list:
1. Casey Kelly: 1st-rounder in 2008
2. Ryan Westmoreland: 5th-rounder in 2008
3. Ryan Kalish: 9th-rounder in 2006
4. Josh Reddick: 17th-rounder in 2006
5. Lars Anderson: 18th-rounder in 2006
6. Anthony Rizzo: 6th-rounder in 2007
7. Junichi Tazawa: International free agent
8. Jose Iglesias: International free agent
9. Stolmy Pimentel: International free agent
10. Michael Bowden: Supplemental pick in 2005
It's not that Westmoreland or Kalish were diamonds in the rough that the Red Sox somehow unearthed deep in the draft the way the Patriots unearthed Tom Brady. The Red Sox didn't necessarily have a scout who saw something in Anderson that no one else saw.
The Red Sox, rather, could afford to pay above-slot money -- meaning bonuses significantly higher than they'd normally pay to late-round picks -- to high-school guys who intended to go to college unless the team that drafted them convinced them to do otherwise.
In that way, the Red Sox drafted first-round talent -- or, at least, second- or third- round talent -- deep in the draft.
The college pitcher drafted one spot ahead of Westmoreland got a $600,000 bonus from the Cleveland Indians, according to Baseball America. Westmoreland, who had a scholarship offer in hand to play at Vanderbilt, got $2 million to decide that education was overrated.
The college third baseman drafted two spots ahead of Kalish got a $70,000 bonus from the Cleveland Indians. The college pitcher drafted one spot ahead of Kalish got a $400,00 bonus from the Los Angeles. Kalish, who could have played quarterback at Virginia, got $600,000 to decide that he liked baseball best of all.
None of the players drafted in the same neighborhood as Anderson got anything worth reporting in the way of signing bonuses -- with the exception of pitcher Michael Dubee, who signed with the Phillies for $125,000. Anderson, who was all set to go to Cal on a baseball scholarship, got $825,000 to make his minor-league bus rides a little more tolerable.
That still happens:
* Pitcher Madison Younginer might not be a household name yet, but he was Baseball America's 19th-best high school talent with a commitment to Clemson who slid into the seventh round. When the Red Sox offered $975,000 to him last summer, he decided orange wasn't his favorite color anymore.
* Outfielder Brandon Jacobs fell into the 10th round this year thanks in large part to a commitment to play football at Auburn, but the Red Sox got him into their system thanks to a signing bonus of $750,000.
* Third baseman Miles Head tumbled all the way into the 26th round because he looked like he'd made up his mind to play for Georgia, but $335,000 from the Red Sox -- a fortune at that point in the draft -- convinced him to do otherwise.
In some ways, if the Red Sox lose their first-round pick, they can use the $2 or $3 million they save to buy some talented high-school draftees out of otherwise firm college commitments. Younginer and infielder David Renfroe -- the 43rd-best high-school talent last year who slid into the back of the third round with a commitment to Ole Miss -- are recent examples of that.
Losing a first-round pick for a free agent is a big deal and shouldn't be taken lightly.
For the right free agent, though, it's something from which the Red Sox can recover in the later rounds of the draft -- or by spending big bucks in international free agency.
(One last thing to consider: Should the Red Sox sign another Type A free agent, be it Chone Figgins or Matt Holliday or John Lackey or Rafael Soriano, they can only lose one first-round pick. The price of Scutaro then would become a second-round pick.)
Not so fast.
A glance at the list of the names atop the list at SoxProspects.com and the names atop the Baseball America list to be released in a couple of weeks reveals that first-round draft picks aren't as critical to the deep-pocketed Red Sox as they are to other teams. Consider the SoxProspects.com list:
1. Casey Kelly: 1st-rounder in 2008
2. Ryan Westmoreland: 5th-rounder in 2008
3. Ryan Kalish: 9th-rounder in 2006
4. Josh Reddick: 17th-rounder in 2006
5. Lars Anderson: 18th-rounder in 2006
6. Anthony Rizzo: 6th-rounder in 2007
7. Junichi Tazawa: International free agent
8. Jose Iglesias: International free agent
9. Stolmy Pimentel: International free agent
10. Michael Bowden: Supplemental pick in 2005
It's not that Westmoreland or Kalish were diamonds in the rough that the Red Sox somehow unearthed deep in the draft the way the Patriots unearthed Tom Brady. The Red Sox didn't necessarily have a scout who saw something in Anderson that no one else saw.
The Red Sox, rather, could afford to pay above-slot money -- meaning bonuses significantly higher than they'd normally pay to late-round picks -- to high-school guys who intended to go to college unless the team that drafted them convinced them to do otherwise.
In that way, the Red Sox drafted first-round talent -- or, at least, second- or third- round talent -- deep in the draft.
The college pitcher drafted one spot ahead of Westmoreland got a $600,000 bonus from the Cleveland Indians, according to Baseball America. Westmoreland, who had a scholarship offer in hand to play at Vanderbilt, got $2 million to decide that education was overrated.
The college third baseman drafted two spots ahead of Kalish got a $70,000 bonus from the Cleveland Indians. The college pitcher drafted one spot ahead of Kalish got a $400,00 bonus from the Los Angeles. Kalish, who could have played quarterback at Virginia, got $600,000 to decide that he liked baseball best of all.
None of the players drafted in the same neighborhood as Anderson got anything worth reporting in the way of signing bonuses -- with the exception of pitcher Michael Dubee, who signed with the Phillies for $125,000. Anderson, who was all set to go to Cal on a baseball scholarship, got $825,000 to make his minor-league bus rides a little more tolerable.
That still happens:
* Pitcher Madison Younginer might not be a household name yet, but he was Baseball America's 19th-best high school talent with a commitment to Clemson who slid into the seventh round. When the Red Sox offered $975,000 to him last summer, he decided orange wasn't his favorite color anymore.
* Outfielder Brandon Jacobs fell into the 10th round this year thanks in large part to a commitment to play football at Auburn, but the Red Sox got him into their system thanks to a signing bonus of $750,000.
* Third baseman Miles Head tumbled all the way into the 26th round because he looked like he'd made up his mind to play for Georgia, but $335,000 from the Red Sox -- a fortune at that point in the draft -- convinced him to do otherwise.
In some ways, if the Red Sox lose their first-round pick, they can use the $2 or $3 million they save to buy some talented high-school draftees out of otherwise firm college commitments. Younginer and infielder David Renfroe -- the 43rd-best high-school talent last year who slid into the back of the third round with a commitment to Ole Miss -- are recent examples of that.
Losing a first-round pick for a free agent is a big deal and shouldn't be taken lightly.
For the right free agent, though, it's something from which the Red Sox can recover in the later rounds of the draft -- or by spending big bucks in international free agency.
(One last thing to consider: Should the Red Sox sign another Type A free agent, be it Chone Figgins or Matt Holliday or John Lackey or Rafael Soriano, they can only lose one first-round pick. The price of Scutaro then would become a second-round pick.)
Friday, November 20, 2009
Top prospect Kalish just keeps on keeping on
Outfielder Josh Reddick entered the consciousness of casual Red Sox fans a year ago when he made the jump from Double-A to the major leagues to make some appearances in the Red Sox outfield.
Ryan Kalish might be next in line.
The Red Sox drafted Kalish in the ninth round in 2006, the same season in which they drafted Reddick in the 17th round and Lars Anderson in the 18th round. Much like with Anderson, the Red Sox took a flier on a top talent who was considered a solid commit to a big-time college -- Kalish had a chance to play both football and baseball at Virginia -- and lured him to sign with a six-figure signing bonus.
Kalish jumped from Single-A to Double-A this season and just wrapped up a stint in the Arizona Fall League in which he hit .301 with a .384 on-base percentage in 73 at-bats. I caught up with him on the phone on Tuesday, a couple of days before his Mesa Solar Sox finished their season.
What's the biggest thing you've learned out in Arizona?
It’s just the level of competition you have to keep up with. There are so many good players out here. It shows you you need to work harder –- or try to work harder –- than everybody else. I’m seeing things I only see sometimes during the regular season. Every player has a chance to do something extremely special every time they come up or are on the mound. That’s the level of competition I’m dealing with, so I just have to keep working hard.
Was that a surprise or is that what you expected?
That’s what I came here expecting. Honestly, I’ve always known there were good players out there, and I’ve always known I had to work hard. This just reiterates the fact that it’s really true.
Did you have a certain focus for what you wanted to accomplish out there?
Well, I did what I needed to do during the season. Coming out here, I just wanted to have continued success – and I don’t look at my success by numbers. I look at success by my at-bats, like if I am seeing the ball well. Every single day, I’m seeing a No. 1 or a No. 2 or a really good reliever out of the pen, and that can only be a benefit for next year. Aaron Bates and Josh Reddick struggled here. It’s a testament to them that they came back this year -– and look at what happened to them in getting to the big leagues. For me, it’s not the success. It’s the experience. They’re both great players, but this helped them get to the big leagues. I’m positive of that.
Is there anything you specifically wanted to work on?
I just wanted to keep it up. The things I was working on during the season are never going to change. You’re always going to see flaws in the things you do, and you’ve got to be able to pick them out. My goal is to keep continuing to get better on the things I did this year. I haven’t changed anything. I’ve been having some pretty good at-bats over the past few weeks, and it’s been a tough thing for me here because you sometimes get two or three days off in a row before you go out there and play. It’s tough to keep a rhythm that way. But that’s just aprt of this league. I don’t think many people are looking so much at the numbers as the experience.
Is it difficult, after a long season, to still play at a high level like this in November?
Well, I played in Hawaii last year. It’s about how much you want it, really. You’re going to have to come out here with the drive and want to keep it up. You’ve got to keep going, and you’ve got to keep moving. There are guys playing in the Dominican and Venezuela who are in the same boat. That’s part of the experience. I don’t spend a lot of time at home in the offseason – and especially when you’re a so-called prospect, you’re not going to be home as much.
Have you been able to pick up anything playing with the guys in other organizations on your roster?
Meeting Bryan Peterson, he and I have really struck it off well. I’ve gotten a lot of things from him, and we’ve given each other some things. I always like to meet new people because we can just pick up little things from each other. We’ve talked about some little things at the plate. It’s nothing like, ‘I don’t like your swing,’ because we have totally different ways of hitting. But it’s all about getting better at the game. He’s leading the league in average, I think, and to make friends with a guy like that, we’ve helped each other get better.
(When this interview was conducted, Peterson was leading the league in hitting. The Florida Marlins prospect finished the Arizona Fall League season with a .379 batting average, fourth among all hitters out there.)
In the outfield, he’s helped me with my throwing. I’ve had a couple of people tell me that my arm looks a little bit stronger, and the things we’ve talked about have increased my arm strength.
When do you have those conversations? Is it in the cage or during outfield drills or during games?
It’s the whole time – during our throwing program when we’re getting loose before a game or when we’re taking infield and outfield. It’s an all-the-time thing. During the game, I’ll go up to him and ask him, ‘Hey, do you think that was the right play?’ He’ll tell me straight up. People are going to be out there trying to help me, but some people fish for compliments – and we’re straight up with each other. He comes up to me and asks, ‘Do you think that’s a strike?’, maybe, on a pitch he took. I’ll tell him, ‘Yeah, I think it was.’
When you look back at yourself as a player a year ago and compare it to yourself as a player now, what's the biggest difference?
I had a more aggressive approach than it used to be. Between 2008 and 2009, my strikeout numbers stayed the same. My ratio in 2009 was actually a little bit better –- well, you can check that out. But I had a more aggressive approach. This year, I was trying to drive the ball more. In 2008, I was just trying to make contact and flick balls over the infielders’ heads. I had more of a mental approach this year where, ‘If I see this pitch, I’m going to absolutely destroy it,’ and that definitely helps me. My power went up this year, and, hopefully, that will continue.
You've only hit one home run in Arizona. Is there anything you can attribute that to, or is that something you don't worry about?
It might be the competition. It might be not getting into a rhythm. But I’m not really worried about it. It’s just an experience.
You told Baseball Prospectus that your teammates call you a caveman because of the way you try not to think too much. Where does that come from?
A lot of it comes from my approach as a football player. If you get caught in the numbers – your failure rate is going to be more than your success rate, so I just feel like I’ve got to go out there and try to attack the pitch and drive the ball. It’s difficult going out there and always looking up at the scoreboard and seeing what I’m doing. That’s not who I am as a player. I want to go up to the plate and think about hitting the ball hard – if it goes over the fence or goes back to the pitcher. It’s not about hits. If you just think about hits, you’re not going to succeed in this game.
That seems like it could be easier said than done. How do you make that happen?
For me, I’m really good at it just because this is a game. I’m playing baseball for a living. It’s not that having a desk job would stink, but in my life, I’m not ready for that. There are guys fighting a war in Iraq, and it’s like, ‘Really? We’re playing a game. It’s not that big of a deal.’ I’m really enjoying everything, and if I keep things in perspective, it’s pretty easy not to get caught up in all the numbers.
What do you feel like you have to do to make the type of jump that Josh Reddick made last year?
The same exact thing I did this year. I’ve been keeping it simple, and that’s what I want to do. I want to stick with my aggressive approach. You’re always going to have adjustments to your swing, but I want to continue to have the success I had last year. My focus is to keep it up exactly the way it’s been going.
What's the plan from here? What do you do the rest of the winter?
It’s been a long season, but while I’ve been out here, my lifting schedule – all of my working out has been a little bit lax because we don’t really have a gym. I’m going to live in the weight room as soon as I get home. I’m going to take three or four weeks from all baseball activity, but as soon as I get home, I’m living in the gym for 24 hours. I’m going to get strengthened up and get my speed going, do my speed work. I want to be able to play all three positions at all times, and you have to be fast to play center field. I’ll be working out hard.
Is that different from last year, or is that something you usually do?
It’s the same thing as last year. I didn’t really take any time off coming out of Hawaii. I did some light workouts while I was there, but this year, it’s the same thing – I’ll go home and get strong and get fast and get ready for the season.
Ryan Kalish might be next in line.
The Red Sox drafted Kalish in the ninth round in 2006, the same season in which they drafted Reddick in the 17th round and Lars Anderson in the 18th round. Much like with Anderson, the Red Sox took a flier on a top talent who was considered a solid commit to a big-time college -- Kalish had a chance to play both football and baseball at Virginia -- and lured him to sign with a six-figure signing bonus.
Kalish jumped from Single-A to Double-A this season and just wrapped up a stint in the Arizona Fall League in which he hit .301 with a .384 on-base percentage in 73 at-bats. I caught up with him on the phone on Tuesday, a couple of days before his Mesa Solar Sox finished their season.
What's the biggest thing you've learned out in Arizona?
It’s just the level of competition you have to keep up with. There are so many good players out here. It shows you you need to work harder –- or try to work harder –- than everybody else. I’m seeing things I only see sometimes during the regular season. Every player has a chance to do something extremely special every time they come up or are on the mound. That’s the level of competition I’m dealing with, so I just have to keep working hard.
Was that a surprise or is that what you expected?
That’s what I came here expecting. Honestly, I’ve always known there were good players out there, and I’ve always known I had to work hard. This just reiterates the fact that it’s really true.
Did you have a certain focus for what you wanted to accomplish out there?
Well, I did what I needed to do during the season. Coming out here, I just wanted to have continued success – and I don’t look at my success by numbers. I look at success by my at-bats, like if I am seeing the ball well. Every single day, I’m seeing a No. 1 or a No. 2 or a really good reliever out of the pen, and that can only be a benefit for next year. Aaron Bates and Josh Reddick struggled here. It’s a testament to them that they came back this year -– and look at what happened to them in getting to the big leagues. For me, it’s not the success. It’s the experience. They’re both great players, but this helped them get to the big leagues. I’m positive of that.
Is there anything you specifically wanted to work on?
I just wanted to keep it up. The things I was working on during the season are never going to change. You’re always going to see flaws in the things you do, and you’ve got to be able to pick them out. My goal is to keep continuing to get better on the things I did this year. I haven’t changed anything. I’ve been having some pretty good at-bats over the past few weeks, and it’s been a tough thing for me here because you sometimes get two or three days off in a row before you go out there and play. It’s tough to keep a rhythm that way. But that’s just aprt of this league. I don’t think many people are looking so much at the numbers as the experience.
Is it difficult, after a long season, to still play at a high level like this in November?
Well, I played in Hawaii last year. It’s about how much you want it, really. You’re going to have to come out here with the drive and want to keep it up. You’ve got to keep going, and you’ve got to keep moving. There are guys playing in the Dominican and Venezuela who are in the same boat. That’s part of the experience. I don’t spend a lot of time at home in the offseason – and especially when you’re a so-called prospect, you’re not going to be home as much.
Have you been able to pick up anything playing with the guys in other organizations on your roster?
Meeting Bryan Peterson, he and I have really struck it off well. I’ve gotten a lot of things from him, and we’ve given each other some things. I always like to meet new people because we can just pick up little things from each other. We’ve talked about some little things at the plate. It’s nothing like, ‘I don’t like your swing,’ because we have totally different ways of hitting. But it’s all about getting better at the game. He’s leading the league in average, I think, and to make friends with a guy like that, we’ve helped each other get better.
(When this interview was conducted, Peterson was leading the league in hitting. The Florida Marlins prospect finished the Arizona Fall League season with a .379 batting average, fourth among all hitters out there.)
In the outfield, he’s helped me with my throwing. I’ve had a couple of people tell me that my arm looks a little bit stronger, and the things we’ve talked about have increased my arm strength.
When do you have those conversations? Is it in the cage or during outfield drills or during games?
It’s the whole time – during our throwing program when we’re getting loose before a game or when we’re taking infield and outfield. It’s an all-the-time thing. During the game, I’ll go up to him and ask him, ‘Hey, do you think that was the right play?’ He’ll tell me straight up. People are going to be out there trying to help me, but some people fish for compliments – and we’re straight up with each other. He comes up to me and asks, ‘Do you think that’s a strike?’, maybe, on a pitch he took. I’ll tell him, ‘Yeah, I think it was.’
When you look back at yourself as a player a year ago and compare it to yourself as a player now, what's the biggest difference?
I had a more aggressive approach than it used to be. Between 2008 and 2009, my strikeout numbers stayed the same. My ratio in 2009 was actually a little bit better –- well, you can check that out. But I had a more aggressive approach. This year, I was trying to drive the ball more. In 2008, I was just trying to make contact and flick balls over the infielders’ heads. I had more of a mental approach this year where, ‘If I see this pitch, I’m going to absolutely destroy it,’ and that definitely helps me. My power went up this year, and, hopefully, that will continue.
You've only hit one home run in Arizona. Is there anything you can attribute that to, or is that something you don't worry about?
It might be the competition. It might be not getting into a rhythm. But I’m not really worried about it. It’s just an experience.
You told Baseball Prospectus that your teammates call you a caveman because of the way you try not to think too much. Where does that come from?
A lot of it comes from my approach as a football player. If you get caught in the numbers – your failure rate is going to be more than your success rate, so I just feel like I’ve got to go out there and try to attack the pitch and drive the ball. It’s difficult going out there and always looking up at the scoreboard and seeing what I’m doing. That’s not who I am as a player. I want to go up to the plate and think about hitting the ball hard – if it goes over the fence or goes back to the pitcher. It’s not about hits. If you just think about hits, you’re not going to succeed in this game.
That seems like it could be easier said than done. How do you make that happen?
For me, I’m really good at it just because this is a game. I’m playing baseball for a living. It’s not that having a desk job would stink, but in my life, I’m not ready for that. There are guys fighting a war in Iraq, and it’s like, ‘Really? We’re playing a game. It’s not that big of a deal.’ I’m really enjoying everything, and if I keep things in perspective, it’s pretty easy not to get caught up in all the numbers.
What do you feel like you have to do to make the type of jump that Josh Reddick made last year?
The same exact thing I did this year. I’ve been keeping it simple, and that’s what I want to do. I want to stick with my aggressive approach. You’re always going to have adjustments to your swing, but I want to continue to have the success I had last year. My focus is to keep it up exactly the way it’s been going.
What's the plan from here? What do you do the rest of the winter?
It’s been a long season, but while I’ve been out here, my lifting schedule – all of my working out has been a little bit lax because we don’t really have a gym. I’m going to live in the weight room as soon as I get home. I’m going to take three or four weeks from all baseball activity, but as soon as I get home, I’m living in the gym for 24 hours. I’m going to get strengthened up and get my speed going, do my speed work. I want to be able to play all three positions at all times, and you have to be fast to play center field. I’ll be working out hard.
Is that different from last year, or is that something you usually do?
It’s the same thing as last year. I didn’t really take any time off coming out of Hawaii. I did some light workouts while I was there, but this year, it’s the same thing – I’ll go home and get strong and get fast and get ready for the season.
Saturday, November 14, 2009
ETAs of the top Red Sox prospects
As the Red Sox weigh their options for the winter -- signing Jason Bay long-term, for example, or trading prospects for Adrian Gonzalez or Roy Halladay -- they'll do so with an eye on the farm system that has pumped out as much talent as any over the last five years or so.
Jon Lester already is one of the best pitchers in the major leagues, and Clay Buchholz is poised to join him. Jonathan Papelbon is one of the best relief pitchers in the major leagues, and Daniel Bard is poised to join him. Dustin Pedroia is one of the best middle infielders in the major leagues, and Jed Lowrie -- well, Lowrie probably needs to stay healthy for a full season first.
But the fact remains that the Red Sox will make all of their decisions with their farm system in mind -- and that means it's worth looking ahead at when some of those prospects might make their debuts at Fenway Park:
Lars Anderson, 1B
Who he is: If you haven't heard of Anderson, you were living under a rock a year ago at this time. If you haven't given up on Anderson, you're a rare breed among Red Sox fans. The first baseman saw his numbers plummet across the board in his first season : He hit .233 and slugged just .345, and given the publicity he received during the Mark Teixeira saga, most Red Sox fans wrote him off as yet another bust.
When he'll get to Boston: Midseason call-up, 2011.
Why he matters: His age, first and foremost -- he only turned 22 after the minor-league season ended, and that means he's still got plenty of room to grow. Heck, it's worth comparing him with the first baseman after whom the Red Sox now seem to lust and what he did as a 21-year-old playing in Double-A three years after he first was drafted:
* Anderson: .233 batting, .328 on-base, .345 slugging
* Gonzalez: .269 batting, .327 on-base, .365 slugging
A year later, Gonzalez hit .304/.364/.457 as a 22-year-old at Triple-A Oklahoma and made his first cameo in the major leagues. The Red Sox almost certainly will start Anderson back in Double-A and give him a chance to show last season was the type of fluke his career numbers make it seem it was.
Jose Iglesias, SS
Who he is: Seeing as how he's already being touted as the solution to the Red Sox revolving door at shortstop, it's important to remember he's not yet 20 years old. Still, though, his glove reportedly already is major-league ready, and if Texas' 21-year-old shortstop Elvis Andrus is named Rookie of the Year in the coming days, some will jump to the conclusion that Iglesias might only be a year or so away from the Red Sox roster.
Again, though, it's worth looking closer at the comparison. Andrus was 16 years old when he made his professional debut, hitting .295 and OBP'ing .377 for the Atlanta Braves' Rookie-level team in the Gulf Coast League. He was 19 years old when he played a full season at Double-A Frisco in the Rangers' organization. Iglesias, on the other hand, will be 20 years old when he makes his professional debut -- his Arizona Fall League tenure aside -- and still needs to take the minor leagues level-by-level.
A more apt comparison might be Orlando Cabrera, who made his pro debut in the Expos' system as a 19-year-old in 1994 and got his first cup of coffee in the major leagues as a 22-year-old in 1997.
When he'll get to Boston: Opening Day, 2012. (The Red Sox signed him to a major-league contract -- and that means he only can be optioned to the minor leagues three times -- in 2010, 2011 and 2012.)
Why he matters: It's not as if the Red Sox are eager in any way to trade away Jed Lowrie. His injury history has torpedoed his value, and the Red Sox still believe Lowrie can be their everyday shortstop. But the presence of Iglesias deep in the farm system means the Red Sox can think short-term at the position -- insert obligatory Marco Scutaro reference here -- with an eye on Iglesias taking over at the position in three or four years.
Ryan Kalish, OF
Who he is: He's the next big name to play his way onto the radar of casual Red Sox fans. After a miserable start at Double-A Portland, Kalish OPS'ed .855 in July, .867 in August and 1.280 in 26 at-bats in September. (He hit three home runs in the final week of the season.)
He even stole a team-best 14 bases and was caught just three times, and he split time defensively between center field and left field.
(With a little bit of luck there should be a Q&A with Kalish in this space in the next week.)
When he'll get to Boston: Opening Day, 2011.
Why he matters: Kalish and Josh Reddick -- see below -- both impact how the Red Sox will approach their negotiations with Jason Bay. The negotiations thus far have been quiet, but it's safe to assume that the Red Sox are more reluctant to push the envelope in terms of years than in terms of dollars. The 31-year-old Bay already is a subpar defensive left fielder, and the presence of Kalish and Reddick in the system means the Red Sox might view Bay as the heir to David Ortiz as their designated hitter. If that's something that Bay can't accept, he's probably going to sign elsewhere.
Kalish, in fact, has a chance to become an above-average defensive center fielder -- and he could prompt Jacoby Ellsbury to follow the Carl Crawford career track, moving to left field to give the Red Sox an exceptional defensive outfield.
Casey Kelly, P
Who he is: One of the top pitching prospects in the game, Kelly had a 1.12 ERA in nine starts at Single-A Greenville and a 3.09 ERA in eight starts after a promotion to Single-A Salem. Presuming the Red Sox convince him his future is as a starting pitcher, he'll start next season at Double-A Portland and climb the ladder as quickly as his results will let him.
But he's still just 20 years old, and that means he'll need a little bit of time to let his repertoire take shape. He throws a fastball around 92 miles per hour -- and he has room to grow -- with a hard curveball, a potential plus pitch, and a changeup.
When he'll get to Boston: Midseason call-up, 2011.
Why he matters: Simply put, he's the best prospect in the Red Sox system, and he's going to have to be part of any deal the Red Sox make for Gonzalez or Halladay or Felix Hernandez -- especially if the Red Sox make Clay Buchholz off-limits. If the Red Sox see him as a future star in the mold of Jon Lester, they might not be willing to make the type of impact trade some want them to make.
Josh Reddick, OF
Who he is: Reddick made his major-league debut last season -- he even hit a couple of home runs -- but what's most important was the way he played in the minor leagues. He went into last season with an eye on improving his approach at the plate and working more walks, and that's just what he did. He walked just 34 times in more than 500 plate appearances in 2008, and he walked 36 times in fewer than 400 plate appearances in 2009.
His batting average and slugging percentage both suffered, but for a player with Reddick's ability, it might just be a step back that eventually yields two or three giant steps forward.
When he'll get to Boston: Been there, done that.
Why he matters: He'll start next season at Triple-A Pawtucket no matter what happens with Bay. It's almost unfathomable that the Red Sox would be satisfied with replacing a middle-of-the-order bat with a 23-year-old rookie. (When Dustin Pedroia took over full-time at second base three seasons ago, don't forget, he was replacing Mark Loretta and didn't need to do much more than play solid defense and hit the ball every once in a while.)
But his presence and the way the Red Sox feel about him will impact the Bay negotiations. Not only would he likely relegate Bay to designated-hitter duties if he emerged as a potential star, but he and Kalish also give the Red Sox reason to believe that a stopgap solution of Bobby Abreu or Mike Cameron or Josh Willingham with an eye on a younger player taking over in 2011 might be a better more than paying Bay $15 million over the next four or five seasons.
Ryan Westmoreland, OF
Who he is: If he can stop running into walls and breaking his collarbone -- word from the ProJo is that he's doing just fine -- the Rhode Island native likely will open next season at Single-A Greenville and continue his march toward the major leagues. He hit .296 and OBP'ed .401 in his pro debut a year ago, walking 38 times in fewer than 300 plate appearances and ranking fourth in the New York-Penn League in OPS (.885).
When he'll get to Boston: Midseason call-up, 2013.
Why he matters: Like Kelly, at this point, he's a key chip in any trade for an impact bat like Gonzalez or arm like Hernandez. He's essentially irrelevant in any discussions about the future makeup of the Red Sox roster because his arrival is so far off -- it took Grady Sizemore, a frequent basis of comparison for Westmoreland, four years to reach the major leagues, and he didn't miss time with injuries the way Westmoreland has.
But his raw skills have to be tantalizing for teams like the Blue Jays or the Padres. With his power potential -- he slugged .484 for the Spinners this season, including seven home runs -- his upside is higher than that of Jacoby Ellsbury. You'd better believe his name is coming up in trade discussions, and his availability might determine what sort of player the Red Sox can acquire in any trade.
Jon Lester already is one of the best pitchers in the major leagues, and Clay Buchholz is poised to join him. Jonathan Papelbon is one of the best relief pitchers in the major leagues, and Daniel Bard is poised to join him. Dustin Pedroia is one of the best middle infielders in the major leagues, and Jed Lowrie -- well, Lowrie probably needs to stay healthy for a full season first.
But the fact remains that the Red Sox will make all of their decisions with their farm system in mind -- and that means it's worth looking ahead at when some of those prospects might make their debuts at Fenway Park:
Lars Anderson, 1B
Who he is: If you haven't heard of Anderson, you were living under a rock a year ago at this time. If you haven't given up on Anderson, you're a rare breed among Red Sox fans. The first baseman saw his numbers plummet across the board in his first season : He hit .233 and slugged just .345, and given the publicity he received during the Mark Teixeira saga, most Red Sox fans wrote him off as yet another bust.
When he'll get to Boston: Midseason call-up, 2011.
Why he matters: His age, first and foremost -- he only turned 22 after the minor-league season ended, and that means he's still got plenty of room to grow. Heck, it's worth comparing him with the first baseman after whom the Red Sox now seem to lust and what he did as a 21-year-old playing in Double-A three years after he first was drafted:
* Anderson: .233 batting, .328 on-base, .345 slugging
* Gonzalez: .269 batting, .327 on-base, .365 slugging
A year later, Gonzalez hit .304/.364/.457 as a 22-year-old at Triple-A Oklahoma and made his first cameo in the major leagues. The Red Sox almost certainly will start Anderson back in Double-A and give him a chance to show last season was the type of fluke his career numbers make it seem it was.
Jose Iglesias, SS
Who he is: Seeing as how he's already being touted as the solution to the Red Sox revolving door at shortstop, it's important to remember he's not yet 20 years old. Still, though, his glove reportedly already is major-league ready, and if Texas' 21-year-old shortstop Elvis Andrus is named Rookie of the Year in the coming days, some will jump to the conclusion that Iglesias might only be a year or so away from the Red Sox roster.
Again, though, it's worth looking closer at the comparison. Andrus was 16 years old when he made his professional debut, hitting .295 and OBP'ing .377 for the Atlanta Braves' Rookie-level team in the Gulf Coast League. He was 19 years old when he played a full season at Double-A Frisco in the Rangers' organization. Iglesias, on the other hand, will be 20 years old when he makes his professional debut -- his Arizona Fall League tenure aside -- and still needs to take the minor leagues level-by-level.
A more apt comparison might be Orlando Cabrera, who made his pro debut in the Expos' system as a 19-year-old in 1994 and got his first cup of coffee in the major leagues as a 22-year-old in 1997.
When he'll get to Boston: Opening Day, 2012. (The Red Sox signed him to a major-league contract -- and that means he only can be optioned to the minor leagues three times -- in 2010, 2011 and 2012.)
Why he matters: It's not as if the Red Sox are eager in any way to trade away Jed Lowrie. His injury history has torpedoed his value, and the Red Sox still believe Lowrie can be their everyday shortstop. But the presence of Iglesias deep in the farm system means the Red Sox can think short-term at the position -- insert obligatory Marco Scutaro reference here -- with an eye on Iglesias taking over at the position in three or four years.
Ryan Kalish, OF
Who he is: He's the next big name to play his way onto the radar of casual Red Sox fans. After a miserable start at Double-A Portland, Kalish OPS'ed .855 in July, .867 in August and 1.280 in 26 at-bats in September. (He hit three home runs in the final week of the season.)
He even stole a team-best 14 bases and was caught just three times, and he split time defensively between center field and left field.
(With a little bit of luck there should be a Q&A with Kalish in this space in the next week.)
When he'll get to Boston: Opening Day, 2011.
Why he matters: Kalish and Josh Reddick -- see below -- both impact how the Red Sox will approach their negotiations with Jason Bay. The negotiations thus far have been quiet, but it's safe to assume that the Red Sox are more reluctant to push the envelope in terms of years than in terms of dollars. The 31-year-old Bay already is a subpar defensive left fielder, and the presence of Kalish and Reddick in the system means the Red Sox might view Bay as the heir to David Ortiz as their designated hitter. If that's something that Bay can't accept, he's probably going to sign elsewhere.
Kalish, in fact, has a chance to become an above-average defensive center fielder -- and he could prompt Jacoby Ellsbury to follow the Carl Crawford career track, moving to left field to give the Red Sox an exceptional defensive outfield.
Casey Kelly, P
Who he is: One of the top pitching prospects in the game, Kelly had a 1.12 ERA in nine starts at Single-A Greenville and a 3.09 ERA in eight starts after a promotion to Single-A Salem. Presuming the Red Sox convince him his future is as a starting pitcher, he'll start next season at Double-A Portland and climb the ladder as quickly as his results will let him.
But he's still just 20 years old, and that means he'll need a little bit of time to let his repertoire take shape. He throws a fastball around 92 miles per hour -- and he has room to grow -- with a hard curveball, a potential plus pitch, and a changeup.
When he'll get to Boston: Midseason call-up, 2011.
Why he matters: Simply put, he's the best prospect in the Red Sox system, and he's going to have to be part of any deal the Red Sox make for Gonzalez or Halladay or Felix Hernandez -- especially if the Red Sox make Clay Buchholz off-limits. If the Red Sox see him as a future star in the mold of Jon Lester, they might not be willing to make the type of impact trade some want them to make.
Josh Reddick, OF
Who he is: Reddick made his major-league debut last season -- he even hit a couple of home runs -- but what's most important was the way he played in the minor leagues. He went into last season with an eye on improving his approach at the plate and working more walks, and that's just what he did. He walked just 34 times in more than 500 plate appearances in 2008, and he walked 36 times in fewer than 400 plate appearances in 2009.
His batting average and slugging percentage both suffered, but for a player with Reddick's ability, it might just be a step back that eventually yields two or three giant steps forward.
When he'll get to Boston: Been there, done that.
Why he matters: He'll start next season at Triple-A Pawtucket no matter what happens with Bay. It's almost unfathomable that the Red Sox would be satisfied with replacing a middle-of-the-order bat with a 23-year-old rookie. (When Dustin Pedroia took over full-time at second base three seasons ago, don't forget, he was replacing Mark Loretta and didn't need to do much more than play solid defense and hit the ball every once in a while.)
But his presence and the way the Red Sox feel about him will impact the Bay negotiations. Not only would he likely relegate Bay to designated-hitter duties if he emerged as a potential star, but he and Kalish also give the Red Sox reason to believe that a stopgap solution of Bobby Abreu or Mike Cameron or Josh Willingham with an eye on a younger player taking over in 2011 might be a better more than paying Bay $15 million over the next four or five seasons.
Ryan Westmoreland, OF
Who he is: If he can stop running into walls and breaking his collarbone -- word from the ProJo is that he's doing just fine -- the Rhode Island native likely will open next season at Single-A Greenville and continue his march toward the major leagues. He hit .296 and OBP'ed .401 in his pro debut a year ago, walking 38 times in fewer than 300 plate appearances and ranking fourth in the New York-Penn League in OPS (.885).
When he'll get to Boston: Midseason call-up, 2013.
Why he matters: Like Kelly, at this point, he's a key chip in any trade for an impact bat like Gonzalez or arm like Hernandez. He's essentially irrelevant in any discussions about the future makeup of the Red Sox roster because his arrival is so far off -- it took Grady Sizemore, a frequent basis of comparison for Westmoreland, four years to reach the major leagues, and he didn't miss time with injuries the way Westmoreland has.
But his raw skills have to be tantalizing for teams like the Blue Jays or the Padres. With his power potential -- he slugged .484 for the Spinners this season, including seven home runs -- his upside is higher than that of Jacoby Ellsbury. You'd better believe his name is coming up in trade discussions, and his availability might determine what sort of player the Red Sox can acquire in any trade.
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