Friday, December 26, 2008

Don't overrate Yankees too much

Yep, Mark Teixeira is a great hitter. Yep, Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez form a 3-4 punch in the middle of the Yankees' lineup that rivals anything David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez ever did or were.

Let's keep things in perspective, though. Let's not get too carried away. Let's remember that the rest of the Yankees' lineup is full of players who aren't close to the level at which Teixeira and A-Rod play the game.

Here's what the Yankees' lineup looked like last season on Opening Day:
Damon, LF (34 years old, .303, 17 HRs)
Jeter, SS (34, .300, 11)
Abreu, RF (34, .296, 20)
Rodriguez, 3B (32, .305, 35)
Giambi, 1B (37, .247, 32)
Cano, 2B (25, .271, 14)
Posada, C (36, .216, 3)
Matsui, DH (34, .294, 9)
Cabrera, CF (23, .249, 8)

Here's what the Yankees' lineup likely will look like this season on Opening Day, barring further moves:
Damon, LF (now 35 years old)
Jeter, SS (to be 35)
Teixeira, 1B (to be 28; .308 and 33 last season)
Rodriguez, 3B (to be 35)
Swisher, CF (now 28; .219 and 24)
Nady, RF (now 30; .305 and 25)
Matsui, DH (to be 35)
Posada, C (to be 37 going on 67)
Cano, 2B (now 26)

Is it better?

Yes, Teixeira is an upgrade. But in case you didn't notice, Jason Giambi had a fine season last season. Giambi hit .247, sure, but he reached base at a .373 clip -- and he hit 32 home runs. Teixeira, on the other hand, reached base at a .410 clip. That's the type of upgrade we're talking about. Thirty-seven on-base percentage points. And in power, it's a wash. Teixeira also is, of course, a tremendous defensive first baseman, and that's going to help, but you don't win championships with your defense at first base.

Swisher and Nady likewise will be big contributors for an outfield that otherwise would consist of senior citizens (Damon and Matsui) and youngsters who haven't yet done anything (Cabrera and Brett Gardner). Rodriguez is still Rodriguez; his numbers in 2008 were at least equal to the numbers he had back when he was a young pup in Seattle.

But the rest of the lineup is old and getting older. Jeter has seen his on-base percentage and slugging percentage drop in each of the past three seasons; it was .417 and .483 in 2006 and .363 and .408 in 2008. It's not a precipitous drop, but it's also not a good trend for a guy who's got a lot of mileage on him already. Posada's ability to play catcher every day is so questionable that some assumed the Yankees would avoid Teixeira just so Posada could play first base once in a while.

Yes, there's still the pitching. No matter what some are saying, trading Mike Mussina (20 wins and a 3.37 ERA at age 39) for CC Sabathia (a workhorse who will turn 29 this season) does not represent treading water. The Yankees are a better pitching staff with Sabathia. They're also a better pitching staff with A.J. Burnett than with Andy Pettitte, Sidney Ponson or Darrell Rasner. There's no question about that, no matter what Burnett's injury or attitude history.

But the rotation still is going to include at least one of the young arms and probably two -- Joba Chamberlain and either Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy. Chamberlain had a 2.76 ERA and saw opponents hit .245 against him as a starter this year; don't be surprised if he makes a Jon Lester-like leap this season. But Hughes and Kennedy both bombed, and there's no guarantee they're going to rebound right away. Plenty of overhyped young pitchers have bombed and never made it; just ask the late '90s Red Sox.

Some believe the Yankees spent extravagently to buy themselves the American League East. If you break it down, though, you'll find that the Yankees spent almost half a billion dollars to do just a little more than tread water. They -- unlike the Red Sox -- needed Teixeira just to tread water. The race is far from over. In fact, it's just getting interesting.

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