Climb for playoff berth gets steeper

Here's how things stand among playoff hopefuls in the AFC after Sunday:

1. Tennessee: 11-1
2. Pittsburgh: 9-3
3. New York Jets: 8-4
4. Denver: 7-5
5. Indianapolis: 8-4 (7-2 in AFC games)
6. Baltimore: 8-4 (7-3)
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7. New England: 7-5 (5-5)
8. Miami: 7-5 (5-4)

The Patriots have a couple of options here:
1. Move to the AFC West, where their head-to-head win over the Broncos would put them in position not only to make the playoffs, but to host a first-round game!
2. Win out and get help.

The Patriots would lose a three-way tiebreaker with Baltimore and Indianapolis (head-to-head); they would lose a tiebreaker with only Indianapolis (head-to-head), and they would lose a tiebreaker with only Baltimore (conference record).

They also are on the wrong end of a tiebreaker with New York for a division title; the two teams split the season seriers, but the Jets have a 3-1 record in the division (with home games against Miami and Buffalo left on the schedule) while the Patriots are 3-2 with a trip to Buffalo their only remaining division game.

That means they're effectively two games out of a playoff berth.

Baltimore has a difficult schedule the rest of the way, but it's still hard to imagine the Ravens going 1-3 in December -- not with three of their four remaining games at home. If the Patriots lose at all, though, they'll need the Ravens to go 1-3. (The Colts or Jets likewise could help by going 1-3, but they both have easier schedules than the Ravens.) If that doesn't happen, the Patriots are almost certainly going to spend January at home, on the couch, throwing darts at a picture of Bernard Pollard.