Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Papelbon wants to get paid

Jonathan Papelbon has made it clear he's not going to settle for a Kevin Youkilis-type discount in his contract dealings with the Red Sox. He knows he left quite a bit of money on the table when he made the decision to be a closer; he wants to make up as much of that money as possible in his year-to-year arbitration hearings and, later, contract negotiations.

As Papelbon told WEEI.com's Rob Bradford two springs ago,I’m here to get my fair share of money. My main priority is to stay healthy and be able to make money, not to go out and try and hurry up and win a championship this year (at the risk of injury). ... I’ve got a lot of money to be made in this game, whether it’s with Boston or not. My goal is to make sure I’m ready to play every day and to make money, and you can’t make money if you’re sitting on the bench."

Pedroia and Youkilis likely lost a little bit of leverage with their professed desire to play only in Boston. Papelbon might love the atmosphere at Fenway Park just as much, but he's not giving away that leverage. He has a number in mind -- a number that's well north of the $6.25 million for which he reportedly will play next season -- and he's going to go after that number. He knows the best closers make less money than even some mediocre starting pitchers, and he's out to break through that glass ceiling.

He's got a shot, too. Check out these numbers for active closers through their first three seasons (or approximately 200 appearances) as a full-time closer:

Papelbon (202 games -- 2005-present)
* 1.84 ERA
* 0.930 WHIP
* 270 strikeouts, 53 walks
* 113 saves
* Will earn $6.25 million in 2009

Jenks (222 games -- 2005-present)
* 3.09 ERA
* 1.154 WHIP
* 224 strikeouts, 76 walks
* 117 saves
* Will earn $5.6 million in 2009

Joe Nathan (206 games -- 2004-06)
* 1.96 ERA
* 0.916 WHIP
* 278 strikeouts, 61 walks
* 113 saves
* Earned $5.25 million in 2007

Mariano Rivera (186 games -- 1997-99)
* 1.87 ERA
* 1.04 WHIP
* 156 strikeouts, 55 walks
* 124 saves
* Earned $7.25 million in 2000

Francisco Rodriguez (199 games -- 2005-07)
* 2.51 ERA
* 1.16 WHIP
* 279 strikeouts, 94 walks
* 142 saves
* Earned $10 million in 2008

Papelbon -- who didn't accumulate service time as a setup man the way Rivera and Rodriguez did -- is right there statistically with any closer in baseball. The Red Sox seem to have dodged something of a bullet with today's agreement, but they might be on the hook for Rivera-type money in the not-too-distant future if they want to hang onto their closer. Rivera made around $9 million in 2001 and 2002, his fifth and sixth seasons as the Yankees' full-time closer, and has made at least $10 million in every season since.

Papelbon isn't dumb. He knows he's just as important to the Red Sox as Rivera is to the Yankees; he knows he's put up very comparable numbers thus far. He also knows he's been playing at a discounted price for the past three seasons. That discount is going to disappear very quickly -- and rightfully so.

1 comment:

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