Much has been made in recent weeks about discussions between the Red Sox and representatives for Kevin Youkilis about a long-term contract. The team certainly is right to try to lock up Youkilis, whose ability to get on base, hit for power and play both corner infield spots makes him an immensely valuable player. Youkilis, though, is right to wait and see if another season with 30 home runs and a .390 on-base percentage gives him the leverage to get a better offer than the team-friendly deal for which Dustin Pedroia settled.
There will be, it appears, no long-term deal for Youkilis before April.
That means the Red Sox can turn their attention elsewhere -- say, to Jason Bay.
Bay is entering the final year of a four-year, $18.25 million contract that he signed with the Pittsburgh Pirates back when he was still eligible for arbitration. He made $5.75 million last season and will make $7.5 million with the Red Sox this season.
Needless to say, with the numbers he's produced, he's in line for a hefty raise. And if the Red Sox don't agree to an extension with Bay, they're going to be awfully tempted to turn to Matt Holliday once he hits the market. Trouble is, Holliday is going to be demanding Teixeira-type money for production that may or may not have been inflated by the thin air of Coors Field.
(OK, when we say "may or may not," we mean "may" -- his batting average at Coors Field is 77 points higher than his batting average on the road, and his slugging percentage at Coors Field is 190 points higher than his slugging percentage on the road. To say it another way: At Coors Field, he's Albert Pujols. Away from Coors Field, he's David DeJesus.)
Bay, meanwhile, has proven to be one of the most underrated hitters in the game. Check this out:
Player A (through five seasons)
* .279 batting average, .370 on-base percentage, .491 slugging percentage
Player B (through six seasons)
* .281 batting average, .348 on-base percentage, .498 slugging percentage
Player C (through six seasons)
* .282 batting average, .375 on-base percentage, .516 slugging percentage
Player A is Grady Sizemore. Player B is Justin Morneau. Both are perennially popular with MVP voters; both are well-known by fans everywhere as prodigious offensive talents.
Sizemore, in fact, signed a long-term deal when he was 23 years old, the largest contract ever for a player with less than two years of service time in the major leagues. He'll be looking at a big payday when that deal expires in three years. Morneau, on the other hand, signed a deal last January that will pay him $80 million over the next six years.
Oh, and Player C is Jason Bay.
The Red Sox have the resources to pay Bay what he's worth. They tried to throw $20 million a year at Mark Teixeira, and they would have paid Manny Ramirez $20 million this season had he spent less time being Manny and more time being the best right-handed hitter in the game. There's no reason to let another outstanding hitter slip through their grasp by letting him to get to free agency.
Here's another comparison:
Player A, age 29, through 2,782 at-bats (six seasons)
* .282 batting average, 149 home runs, 491 RBI
* .375 on-base percentage, .516 slugging percentage
Player B, age 29, through 2,667 at-bats (eight seasons)
* .287 batting average, 142 home runs, 409 RBI
* .393 on-base percentage, .514 slugging percentage
Player A is Jason Bay. Player B is the first eight seasons of the career of J.D. Drew.
And while Drew has taken some flack for his susceptibility to injury over the years, no one has ever questioned his ability as a hitter; he's still one of the game's best. Theo Epstein certainly thought so when he signed Drew to a five-year deal worth $70 million.
Come to think of it, that's right in the ballpark where the Red Sox should start with Bay. Five years and $70 million ought to get it done quite nicely.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Posts
3 comments:
Player A can bat leadoff and be a 30+/30+ threat with incredible CF defense. Dont get me wrong, I love Bay and hope we re-sign him long term, but he isnt Grady Sizemore.
Isn't he? Grady Sizemore has 117 career stolen bases in 148 attempts, while Jason Bay has 53 career stolen bases in 64 attempts -- though six of his 11 career caught stealings were in 2004. Since then, he's 46 for 50, including 21 for 22 three years ago. That's pretty impressive, actually.
You talk about 30-30 ability, but you know how many times Sizemore has hit 30 home runs in his career? Once. Last season. Bay, on the other hand, has 30 home runs -- and 100 RBI to go along with them, impressive considering he was hitting behind Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez for much of his career -- in three of the last four seasons.
Also: Who says Jason Bay couldn't hit leadoff? He's been a .400 OBP guy in his career, which is really what's most important in that spot, and he'll steal you a bag or two, too, if you need it. Sure, he makes more sense as a No. 4 or No. 5 hitter, but Sizemore makes more sense as a No. 3 hitter, too.
You're right: Indians would never trade Sizemore straight up for Bay. But it's a lot closer than you'd think.
I have to admit, Jason Bay's relatively explosive start with Boston (the dude was fantastic, even in his first game with the Sox) is probably clouding my judgment, but it seems a cinch to me that they should keep him.
He may not have the recognition of Sizemore, of Pujols, whatever. But boy, if you can get him (and get him for cheaper than Sizemore, Pujols ... or Manny), it'd seem like an obvious move to me.
And actually, I use Bay as my leadoff hitter on MLB. And we ALL know that video games are perfectly logical and reasonable benchmarks for making real-world decisions. ;)
The word: smaker.
Post a Comment