Patriots edge closer to playoff berth

Bill Belichick's team kept its playoff hopes alive with its win on Sunday afternoon; with the Colts and Ravens also winning and improving to 7-4 on the season, it would have been an almost fatal blow had the Patriots lost and fallen to 6-5.

Here's how the AFC standings look right now:

1. Tennessee (10-1 overall, 7-1 in the conference)
2. Pittsburgh (8-3, 7-1)
3. New York Jets (8-3, 6-3)
4. Denver (6-5, 3-5)
5. Indianapolis (7-4, 6-2)
6. Baltimore (7-4, 6-3)
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7. New England (7-4, 5-4)
8. Miami (6-5, 5-4)
9. Buffalo (6-5, 4-4)

If three potential wild-card teams are tied in overall record, as the Patriots are with Baltimore and Indianapolis, here's how the tiebreakers work:
1. If one team has defeated both of the other two teams, that team is the top seed of the three. Conversely, if one team has lost to both of the other two teams, that team is the bottom seed. The Colts beat the Ravens in Week 6 and the Patriots in Week 9, so that means they now hold the No. 5 seed.
2. Record in conference games. The Ravens are 6-3; the Patriots are 5-4.

But the Patriots do have a leg up on Miami; with the head-to-head series now a split, the Patriots' better record in AFC East games (3-2 to 2-2) puts them ahead, and while both teams still play against Buffalo on the road, the Dolphins also have to play the Jets at the Meadowlands. And Buffalo is 0-3 in the division, which means they're all but done unless they win out and both the Dolphins and Patriots stumble badly.

Because it is relevant, here's what's left on the schedule for the top four wild-card contenders:
5. Indianapolis: at Cleveland (4-7), vs. Cincinnati (1-9-1), vs. Detroit (0-11), at Jacksonville (4-7), vs. Tennessee (10-1).
(That schedule couldn't be much softer. The Browns are 1-5 at home, the Jaguars are reeling and the Titans won't have anything for which to play in Week 17 now that they're no longer undefeated.)
6. Baltimore: at Cincinnati (1-9-1), vs. Washington (7-4), vs. Pittsburgh (8-3), at Dallas (7-4), vs. Jacksonville (4-7).
(That's a little bit more daunting; Tony Romo is back for the Cowboys, and the Redskins are better than their record indicates given how tough their schedule has been.)
7. New England: vs. Pittsburgh (8-3), at Seattle (2-9), at Oakland (3-8), vs. Arizona (7-4), at Buffalo (6-5).
(West Coast swings are never easy, but New England should beat both Seattle and Oakland, and if Kurt Warner's Arizona Cardinals win at Gillette Stadium, the Patriots don't deserve to go to the playoffs, anyway.)
8. Miami: at St. Louis (2-9), vs. Buffalo at Toronto (6-5), vs. San Francisco (3-8), at Kansas City (1-10), at New York Jets (8-3).
(Cupcake city. That's why it's imperative that the Patriots take care of business against Seattle, Oakland and Arizona -- a loss in even just one of those games might drop them behind the Dolphins.)