The baseball playoffs and the best pitcher

I was tossing around a theory a couple of weeks ago about the NBA postseason and the baseball postseason, a theory about whether the team with the best player almost always wins a series. In the NBA, that's been said to be the case -- if the supporting casts are at all comparable, the team with the best player usually wins the series.

Basketball is a sport where one player can take over a game and, as long as he's not playing for the Cleveland Cavaliers, can lift his team to an NBA title. Tim Duncan has sone it. Dwyane Wade has done it. Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O'Neal have done it. Michael Jordan did it again and again and again. There has to be some semblance of a supporting cast, as LeBron James is finding out against Orlando -- but if you have the best player in the series, you have a clear leg up on winning the series.

Is that the case in baseball?

In baseball, position players have a tough time dominating a series. They get to the plate maybe five times a game and see the ball hit to them in the field maybe five times a game; there's not much else they can do to impact the game.

Pitchers, though, can absolutely take control of a series. We've seen that time and time again -- Cole Hamels in the World Series a year ago being only the most recent example.

This seems relevant as the Red Sox try to decide what to do about Clay Buchholz, a pitcher they seem to view as a potential future ace. But is it really that simple? Does the team with the best pitcher always win a seven-game playoff series?

Over the last five years, the answer is a resounding yes.

2008
World Series
Best pitcher: Hamels, Philadelphia.
Winner: Philadelphia.
James Shields had the single best pitching performance of the World Series, tossing 5 2/3 shutout innings in Game 2, but Hamels set the tone in Game 1 with seven solid innings and followed that up with six solid innings in Game 5.
ALCS
Best pitcher: Matt Garza, Tampa Bay.
Winner: Tampa Bay.
Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka had the best regular-season numbers, but Garza outpitched Lester in Game 3 (a 9-1 Tampa Bay win) and again in Game 7 (a 3-1 Tampa Bay win).
NLCS
Best pitcher: Hamels, Philadelphia.
Winner: Philadelphia.
Hamels struck out 13 hitters in 14 innings and allowed three earned runs.

2007
World Series
Best pitcher: Josh Beckett, Boston.
Winner: Boston.
Beckett only had to pitch once in the series, but he struck out nine in seven innings as the Red Sox routed the Rockies. It would have been fun to see him pitch a decisive Game 5, but Jon Lester never gave him that chance.
ALCS
Best pitcher: Beckett, Boston.
Winner: Boston.
Having the best pitcher only helps if he pitches like the best pitcher -- and while CC Sabathia and Fausto Carmona both had better regular-season numbers, there's no question Beckett was the best pitcher in this series.
NLCS
Best pitcher: Jeff Francis, Colorado.
Winner: Colorado.
Same goes for Arizona: Brandon Webb would finish second in the Cy Young voting after the season but didn't pitch like it in his only NLCS start.

2006
World Series
Best pitcher: Chris Carpenter, St. Louis.
Winner: St. Louis.
His eight shutout innings in Game 3 turned the tide of the series -- and gave the Cardinals the flexibility to use four relief pitchers in a 5-4 win in Game 4.
ALCS
Best pitcher: Kenny Rogers, Detroit.
Winner: Detroit.
Going head-to-head with the electric Rich Harden in Game 3, Rogers threw seven two-hit innings. The Tigers swept the series.
NLCS
Best pitcher: Jeff Suppan, St. Louis.
Winner: St. Louis.
The longer the series, the more important the pitching becomes. Suppan won Game 3 with seven shutout innings and won Game 7 with eight strong innings, outpitching both Oliver Perez and Steve Trachsel in the process.

2005
World Series
Best pitcher: Freddy Garcia, Chicago.
Winner: Chicago.
Houston's Brandon Backe also pitched seven shutout innings in Game 4 but lost by a 1-0 score when Brad Lidge allowed an RBI single in the eighth inning. This one might be a toss-up.
ALCS
Best pitcher: All of them, Chicago.
Winner: Chicago.
Garcia, Mark Buehrle, Jon Garland and Jose Contreras pitched a combined 44 1/3 ininings and allowed 11 earned runs in the series.
NLCS
Best pitcher: Roy Oswalt, Houston.
Winner: Houston.
Oswalt (1.29 ERA in 14 IP) outpitched St. Louis ace Chris Carpenter (3.00 ERA in 15 IP), winning Games 2 and 6 almost by himself.

2004
World Series
Best pitcher: Derek Lowe, Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling, Boston.
Winner: Boston.
In Games 2, 3 and 4, the trio allowed 10 hits and no runs in 20 innings.
ALCS
Best pitcher: Jon Lieber, New York.
Winner: Boston.
Lieber threw seven shutout innings to beat Pedro Martinez in Game 2, and he was awfully impressive in Curt Schilling's Bloody Sock game, too, allowing a four-run outburst in the fourth inning but nothing else. Lowe was the best Red Sox pitcher of the series, throwing 5 1/3 tough innings in a must-win Game 4 and six impressive innings in Game 7.
NLCS
Best pitcher: Woody Williams, St. Louis.
Winner: St. Louis.
Houston's Brandon Backe didn't have bad numbers, either, but Williams beat him head-to-head in Game 1 and matched him out-for-out in Game 5 before Jason Isringhausen allowed a walk-off home run to Jeff Kent. Another candidate, by the way, is Jeff Suppan, who outpitched Roger Clemens in Game 7. Suppan has a 3.63 ERA in 10 postseason starts and inexplicably has to be considered one of the most accomplished postseason pitchers of his era.

Yes, hitting still has something to do with it. CC Sabathia and Brandon Webb didn't struggle their respective playoff series in 2007 in a vaccuum; they got hit hard by quality lineups.

But other than the ALCS in 2004, the team that's won each seven-game series over the last five years has been the team with the hottest pitcher. The Phillies beat the Rays and Dodgers mostly thanks to Cole Hamels; the Rays beat the Red Sox in large part because no one could touch Matt Garza. And even though Jeff Suppan has never been considered the ace of any staff, he was the reason the Cardinals outlasted the Mets in the 2006 NLCS despite getting next to nothing from ace Chris Carpenter in his two starts.

There's a reason the Red Sox have been so reluctant to trade Clay Buchholz and have been so patient with John Smoltz. If you're a team that expects to be in the postseason, you need all the elite starting pitchers you can get.