Wednesday, May 6, 2009

More on Lester and his ratios

Yes, there's a baseball game that's starting in a few minutes upon which Jon Lester will have no impact. But there's an interesting comparison between Lester and CC Sabathia that's been brought up over at that's worth repeating here:

The baserunners seem to be coming in clumps for Lester and he's given up a handful of big innings. Spreading that out will bring down those ERs allowed.

Using this metric, Carsten Charles is significantly lagging behind Lester at this admittedly early stage. Dude is rocking a mere 1.6 K/BB ratio and his current WHIP would be the highest of his career. He's a notoriously slow starter, but striking out 5.5 per 9 isn't exactly what the Yankees signed him for. But hey, they can do whatever they want with their money. It's their life.

Kris Liakos, half of the WalkOffWalk team, is excited because he's bet Rob Ircane, the other half of the WalkOffWalk team, that Lester will have a better ERA+ so far this season than Sabathia. So far, they're tied at 99 apiece. The loser of the bet has to videotape himself singing Bon Jovi and post it online. (Strangely, this is seen as a punishment. "And I'm wanted.... WAAAAAANT...ed... dead or UH... live..." I'm sorry. What were we talking about again?)

Rob shoots back: I love it when Kris pretends to know what stats mean. Sabathia still has a lower ERA and has given up just two tater tots to Lester's bloated seven. Warm up those vocal chords, Chachi.

Sorry, Rob, but what we're looking at is indicators of future performance. Among those indicators:

Lester: .365
Sabathia: .298
(Hits are falling in against Lester that aren't falling in against Sabathia. Point to Lester.)

K/BB ratio
Lester: 43-12
Sabathia: 24-15
(Point to Lester.)

Line-drive percentage
Lester: 21 percent
Sabathia: 22 percent
(Call it a draw.)

Swing-and-a-miss percentage
Lester: 19 percent
Sabathia: 15 percent
(Point to Lester.)

You get the picture.

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