Earned run averages have skyrocketed in the last couple of decades. In the 40 years after World War II, American League pitchers compiled an ERA of under 4.25 every single year except 1950 and 1977. National League pitchers compiled an ERA of under 4.25 every single year except 1977. In the last 30 years, though, we've seen ERAs go stratospheric -- not since 1992 has the American League seen its pitchers compile a sub-4.25 ERA, and not since 1992 has either league seen its pitchers compile a sub-4.00 ERA.
Five of the worst six ERA seasons -- and seven of the worst nine -- in American League history have come since 1994. If you discount the pre-1901 era, same goes for the National League but worse: It's nine of the worst 11.
You can probably guess the point that's being made here: The pitchers of today are the greatest pitchers of all-time.
No, really. The cumulative American League ERA so far this season is 4.41, a tick up from last year's 4.32 and well above pretty much every ERA posted between 1901 and 1990. The cumulative National League ERA so far this season is 4.24, a tick down from last year's 4.30 but still well above where it used to be.
Still, though: The pitchers of today are the greatest pitchers of all-time.
A couple of fairly simple points:
1. Strikeout rates have outpaced home run rates by a growth factor of 4.5 since the Steroid Era began.
2. Strikeout rates have outpaced walk rates by a factor of 15.
3. Walk rates, however, still have increased -- but only very gradually.
We all know how hitters have been hitting more and more home runs since the Steroid Era began in 1993 or 1994. Some also have pointed out -- Joe Posnanski, of course, did it best -- how hitters have been striking out more and more in that same time span. Posnanski's premise was that if hitters would strike out a little less often and make contact a little more, they'd have more opportunity to hit .400.
But strikeouts are a product of two things: The pitcher and the hitter. Posnanski, for the sake of his premise, looked at hitters. But pitchers have quite a bit to do with it, too -- and if you take a look at the above points, you can see why.
Home runs are up. Strikeouts are up. You could easily jump to the conclusion that hitters simply are swinging more -- they're not making consistent contact because they're trying to hit home runs all the time, but they're swinging more.
Except walk rates are up, too.
Here are some of the raw numbers -- you'll be spared the long list of data and the chart and the linear function and the slopes and R-squared values and everything that went into them:
Home run rate
1980: 1.9 percent of at-bats
1985: 2.3
1990: 2.1
1995: 2.6
2000: 3.0
2005: 2.7
2009: 2.7
(Since 1980, if you take every year into consideration, the rate of increase is 0.33 percent.)
Strikeout rate
1980: 12.5 percent of at-bats
1985: 14.0
1990: 14.9
1995: 16.2
2000: 16.5
2005: 16.5
2009: 17.7
(Since 1980, the rate of increase is 1.49 percent.)
Walk rate
1980: 8.2
1985: 8.6
1990: 8.6
1995: 9.1
2000: 9.6
2005: 8.2
2009: 9.1
(Since 1980, the rate of increase is 0.1 percent.)
If hitters were striking out more often because they were swinging more often, well, you'd think you'd see walk rates start to decline. But that's not the case. Walk rates haven't skyrocketed, but they have climbed gradually northward throughout the last 30 years.
The huge increase in strikeout rates -- home runs have increased, but strikeouts have increased almost five times as fast as home runs -- can't just be attributed to free-swinging hitters. It must have something to do with the pitching, too.
Strikeouts and walks and home runs, as has been well-documented, are about the only thing a pitcher can control. Once the ball gets put into play, the pitcher has pretty much no control over what happens to it. It helps if it's not hit all that hard, of course, but baseball fans everywhere have seen hundreds of line drives land in outfielders' gloves and hundreds of bloop singles barely reach the outfield grass.
Analysts more and more are looking to strikeout ratios -- as well as strikeout-to-walk ratios -- to determine the best pitchers in the game. Check out this list:
1. Justin Verlander
2. Jon Lester
3. Zack Grienke
4. Felix Hernandez
5. Josh Beckett
6. A.J. Burnett
7. Roy Halladay
8. Matt Garza
9. Jered Weaver
That looks pretty much like a list of the best pitchers in the American League, right? Well, that's the strikeout-rate leaderboard. Verlander leads the way with a strikeout rate of 29.5 -- that is, 29.5 percent of hitters he faces go straight back to the dugout -- and Weaver has a more-than-respectable 21.1.
Back in 1980, Rudy May led the American League with a 19.3 percent strikeout rate. He'd rank 16th in the American League this season Dave Righetti led the American League in 1981 with a 21.1 percent strikeout rate -- and he'd still barely crack the top 10.
(By excluding the National League, of course, we're excluding guys like Steve Carlton and Nolan Ryan, pitchers who routinely had strikeout rates of 20 percent or better. The National League this season, though, has four pitchers -- Tim Lincecum, Javy Vazquez, Yovani Gallardo and Dan Haren -- with strikeout rates of 25 percent or better.)
Pitchers in the last 30 years have had to face some of the best hitters in the history of the game. Much of that has to do, of course, with performance-enhancing drugs. But building up artificial bulk doesn't just increase home-run power -- the stronger your upper body, the quicker your bat speed. The quicker your bat speed, the more contact and better contact a hitter makes. (Hand-eye coordination helps, too -- just ask Dustin Pedroia.)
There's a reason, after all, that doubles and triples have increased at just as steady a rate over the last 30 years as home runs.
All the while, though, strikeout rates have increased almost five times faster than home run rates and more than twice as fast as the extra-base-hit rate.
Pitchers' ERAs have, predictably, climbed to new heights in the last couple of decades. Before everyone came to grips with the issue of performance enhancers, one common explanation was that expansion had watered down pitching, that pitchers weren't as good as they used to be.
That part is true. Pitchers aren't as good as they used to be.
They're better.
Monday, July 13, 2009
Green or Lowrie? There's no debate
One of the oldest baseball adages goes something like this: No matter how you start the season, if you're a .300 hitter, by the end of the season, you're going to hit .300. No matter how you start the season, if you're a .250 hitter, by the end of the season, you're going to hit .250. That's just the way it goes.
Nick Green came into this season as a .240 hitter with a .656 OPS in 799 major-league plate appearances. He's a .240 hitter. Maybe he's a .250 hitter. But that's it.
He hit .275 in April and hit .321 in May. His batting average, at that point, was .298. His OPS -- on-base plus slugging -- was .783.
But, as we might have expected, he's regressing to the mean. He's 20 for 106 (.189) since June 1, and his OPS has slowly dwindled:
May: .784
June: .698
July (so far): .580
He has six hits in his last 45 at-bats (.133) with a .264 on-base percentage -- and his on-base percentage is only that high because he faced Bruce Chen and Robinson Tejeda on Sunday. (When a pitcher goes 0 for his first 13 in trying to throw strikes to Jason Bay, you have to take Green's three walks, a career high, with a grain of salt.)
Green's overall numbers, thanks to his hot start, still don't look terrible: He's hitting over .250 and OPS'ing over .700. That's led many to believe there's a debate afoot: Who's going to play shortstop full-time upon Jed Lowrie's return?
Green remains a valuable asset as an infielder. He can play at least three positions and has seen his defense at shortstop improve by leaps and bounds since a rough start to the season. (His UZR/150 was minus-16.6 in early June but is now plus-12.2, and he's gone more than a month without making an error.)
But Lowrie can hold his own defensively. A year ago, in fact, he had an UZR/150 of plus-24.6 and made zero errors in 49 games at shortstop. He's also a better hitter when he's healthy -- even with the wrist injury that plagued him last year, he put up better numbers (.739 OPS) than Green has this season (.721 OPS).
Green will allow the Red Sox to work Lowrie back slowly, but there's no question who should be starting the majority of games at shortstop at Fenway Park.
Nick Green came into this season as a .240 hitter with a .656 OPS in 799 major-league plate appearances. He's a .240 hitter. Maybe he's a .250 hitter. But that's it.
He hit .275 in April and hit .321 in May. His batting average, at that point, was .298. His OPS -- on-base plus slugging -- was .783.
But, as we might have expected, he's regressing to the mean. He's 20 for 106 (.189) since June 1, and his OPS has slowly dwindled:
May: .784
June: .698
July (so far): .580
He has six hits in his last 45 at-bats (.133) with a .264 on-base percentage -- and his on-base percentage is only that high because he faced Bruce Chen and Robinson Tejeda on Sunday. (When a pitcher goes 0 for his first 13 in trying to throw strikes to Jason Bay, you have to take Green's three walks, a career high, with a grain of salt.)
Green's overall numbers, thanks to his hot start, still don't look terrible: He's hitting over .250 and OPS'ing over .700. That's led many to believe there's a debate afoot: Who's going to play shortstop full-time upon Jed Lowrie's return?
Green remains a valuable asset as an infielder. He can play at least three positions and has seen his defense at shortstop improve by leaps and bounds since a rough start to the season. (His UZR/150 was minus-16.6 in early June but is now plus-12.2, and he's gone more than a month without making an error.)
But Lowrie can hold his own defensively. A year ago, in fact, he had an UZR/150 of plus-24.6 and made zero errors in 49 games at shortstop. He's also a better hitter when he's healthy -- even with the wrist injury that plagued him last year, he put up better numbers (.739 OPS) than Green has this season (.721 OPS).
Green will allow the Red Sox to work Lowrie back slowly, but there's no question who should be starting the majority of games at shortstop at Fenway Park.
Red Sox starters all to get a week off
Clay Buchholz will make a spot start for the Red Sox on Friday in Toronto, his first major-league start of the season. Some will argue -- and they might be right -- that the Red Sox are showcasing Buchholz for potential trade partners, including the Blue Jays.
But it does keep the team's rotation in order as well. Here's how everything is set to line up coming out of the All-Star break:
Tuesday: Beckett/Wakefield
Wednesday: Off
Thursday: Off
Friday: Buchholz (regular rest)
Saturday: Penny (eight days' rest)
Sunday: Lester (eight days' rest)
Monday: Smoltz (eight days' rest)
Tuesday: Beckett (six days' rest)
Wednesday: Wakefield (seven days' rest)
Beckett, if he appears in the All-Star Game is the only one who doesn't get something of a break in this whole arrangement. He'll pitch an inning in St. Louis on one day's rest -- not a huge deal considering he normally throws his bullpen session on one day's rest -- and then only get a couple of days more than normal before he pitches again.
The Red Sox could have given each guy seven days' rest and had either Beckett or Wakefield pitch on five days' rest on Tuesday in Texas.
The temporary insertion of Buchholz into the rotation, though, ensures that everyone will come out of the break pitching on extra rest. That might mean a sharp week of starting pitching. Consider the Red Sox starting pitchers' career numbers when pitching on six or more days' of rest:
Beckett: 2.75 ERA in 31 starts
Smoltz: 2.96 ERA in 48 starts
Penny: 3.17 ERA in 34 starts
Wakefield: 4.08 ERA in 51 starts
Lester: 4.55 ERA in 11 starts
Lester is the only one with subpar numbers after an extended break -- but he also threw 7 1/3 shutout innings at Seattle on 12 days' rest following last season's All-Star break. If you're worried about Lester at this point in the season, you're in a lonely club.
But it does keep the team's rotation in order as well. Here's how everything is set to line up coming out of the All-Star break:
Tuesday: Beckett/Wakefield
Wednesday: Off
Thursday: Off
Friday: Buchholz (regular rest)
Saturday: Penny (eight days' rest)
Sunday: Lester (eight days' rest)
Monday: Smoltz (eight days' rest)
Tuesday: Beckett (six days' rest)
Wednesday: Wakefield (seven days' rest)
Beckett, if he appears in the All-Star Game is the only one who doesn't get something of a break in this whole arrangement. He'll pitch an inning in St. Louis on one day's rest -- not a huge deal considering he normally throws his bullpen session on one day's rest -- and then only get a couple of days more than normal before he pitches again.
The Red Sox could have given each guy seven days' rest and had either Beckett or Wakefield pitch on five days' rest on Tuesday in Texas.
The temporary insertion of Buchholz into the rotation, though, ensures that everyone will come out of the break pitching on extra rest. That might mean a sharp week of starting pitching. Consider the Red Sox starting pitchers' career numbers when pitching on six or more days' of rest:
Beckett: 2.75 ERA in 31 starts
Smoltz: 2.96 ERA in 48 starts
Penny: 3.17 ERA in 34 starts
Wakefield: 4.08 ERA in 51 starts
Lester: 4.55 ERA in 11 starts
Lester is the only one with subpar numbers after an extended break -- but he also threw 7 1/3 shutout innings at Seattle on 12 days' rest following last season's All-Star break. If you're worried about Lester at this point in the season, you're in a lonely club.
Sunday, July 12, 2009
Bates makes most of big-league stint
Aaron Bates will spend the next couple of days in Kennebunkport, Maine, taking a breather with his girlfriend and getting a chance to reflect on his whirlwind week in the major leagues -- a week he couldn't have capped any better than he did on Sunday.
Bates singled and doubled twice against Kansas City on Sunday, collecting as many hits as the Royals' entire offense did against Josh Beckett. It helped that Bates had hit against Kansas City starting pitcher Bruce Chen in Puerto Rico over the winter; he doubled to left field in the second inning and doubled to center field to knock Chen from the game in the fourth.
"He's got good stuff," Bates said. "You just try to get a good pitch up in the zone and put a good swing on it."
Bates' two doubles actually came on offspeed pitches -- he yanked a changeup away into the left-field corner and then squared up a curveball and launched it off the center-field fence.
"He certainly is a strong kid, and he's got some pull power," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said. "You could tell he felt good about himself today. He hits the ball to center, hits two balls to right, pulls a ball down the left-field line -- when you use the whole field and you hit the ball square like that, you're feeling pretty good."
The slick-fielding first baseman almost certainly will be shipped back to Triple-A Pawtucket in order to make room for Clay Buchholz on Friday -- the highly touted prospect will make a spot start in Toronto, Francona said, to keep the rotation in order coming out of the All-Star break -- before third baseman Mike Lowell is activated from the disabled list on Saturday.
He'd gone hitless in his first six at-bats in the major leagues, striking out four times. He then collected his first major-league hit on Saturday and followed that up with three hits Sunday -- and he'll leave with a .364 batting average to his credit.
But his four hits aren't going to be what he remembers most about his cup of coffee in the major leagues.
"I've been fortunate to be around some of the best players in the game," he said. "You've got six All-Stars on this team. You just try and learn as much as you can, be a sponge. These guys know what it takes to get ready to play every day. They know their bodies, and they know what they have to do. That's what you've got to look at as far as that goes -- the routines they do every day to get ready to play. I tried to pick some guys' brains about at the plate, what they're thinking, and (Dave Magadan), our hitting coach, has been great with me. Sometimes I think I'm asking too many questions because I'm just trying to learn as much as I can while I'm here."
Said Magadan, "He asks all the right questions, gets all his work done and wasn't intimidated at all."
Red Sox owner John Henry stuck his head into the Red Sox locker room to offer his congratulations while Bates was chatting with reporters. He wasn't the only one impressed.
"Especially as a young guy, it's nice to see him get going," All-Star left fielder Jason Bay said. "He came up here for a reason. He can hit."
Bates singled and doubled twice against Kansas City on Sunday, collecting as many hits as the Royals' entire offense did against Josh Beckett. It helped that Bates had hit against Kansas City starting pitcher Bruce Chen in Puerto Rico over the winter; he doubled to left field in the second inning and doubled to center field to knock Chen from the game in the fourth.
"He's got good stuff," Bates said. "You just try to get a good pitch up in the zone and put a good swing on it."
Bates' two doubles actually came on offspeed pitches -- he yanked a changeup away into the left-field corner and then squared up a curveball and launched it off the center-field fence.
"He certainly is a strong kid, and he's got some pull power," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said. "You could tell he felt good about himself today. He hits the ball to center, hits two balls to right, pulls a ball down the left-field line -- when you use the whole field and you hit the ball square like that, you're feeling pretty good."
The slick-fielding first baseman almost certainly will be shipped back to Triple-A Pawtucket in order to make room for Clay Buchholz on Friday -- the highly touted prospect will make a spot start in Toronto, Francona said, to keep the rotation in order coming out of the All-Star break -- before third baseman Mike Lowell is activated from the disabled list on Saturday.
He'd gone hitless in his first six at-bats in the major leagues, striking out four times. He then collected his first major-league hit on Saturday and followed that up with three hits Sunday -- and he'll leave with a .364 batting average to his credit.
But his four hits aren't going to be what he remembers most about his cup of coffee in the major leagues.
"I've been fortunate to be around some of the best players in the game," he said. "You've got six All-Stars on this team. You just try and learn as much as you can, be a sponge. These guys know what it takes to get ready to play every day. They know their bodies, and they know what they have to do. That's what you've got to look at as far as that goes -- the routines they do every day to get ready to play. I tried to pick some guys' brains about at the plate, what they're thinking, and (Dave Magadan), our hitting coach, has been great with me. Sometimes I think I'm asking too many questions because I'm just trying to learn as much as I can while I'm here."
Said Magadan, "He asks all the right questions, gets all his work done and wasn't intimidated at all."
Red Sox owner John Henry stuck his head into the Red Sox locker room to offer his congratulations while Bates was chatting with reporters. He wasn't the only one impressed.
"Especially as a young guy, it's nice to see him get going," All-Star left fielder Jason Bay said. "He came up here for a reason. He can hit."
Saturday, July 11, 2009
Lester still in elite company
We looked earlier this season -- way earlier, like when he still had a 5.11 ERA -- at how strikeout ratios and strikeout-to-walk ratios indicated Jon Lester was in line for better days. There were nine pitchers with more than a strikeout per inning and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.0 or better: Lester, Zack Grienke, Johan Santana, Dan Haren, Erik Bedard, Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez, Javier Vazquez and Justin Verlander.
Now? That group has dwindled to five:
* Grienke (2.12 ERA)
* Lester (3.87 ERA)
* Lincecum (2.33 ERA)
* Vazquez (2.95 ERA)
* Verlander (3.59 ERA)
Lester still has the highest ERA of the group. But there aren't many who doubt his ERA is bound to keep falling. There's no question now that Lester is one of the premier pitchers -- and not just one of the premier lefthanders -- in the major leagues.
Now? That group has dwindled to five:
* Grienke (2.12 ERA)
* Lester (3.87 ERA)
* Lincecum (2.33 ERA)
* Vazquez (2.95 ERA)
* Verlander (3.59 ERA)
Lester still has the highest ERA of the group. But there aren't many who doubt his ERA is bound to keep falling. There's no question now that Lester is one of the premier pitchers -- and not just one of the premier lefthanders -- in the major leagues.
Red Sox pitchers are throwing too many pitches
When Ramon Ramirez was pulled from Thursday night's game against Kansas City, he'd thrown 40 pitches in 1 2/3 innings -- his highest pitch total in any big-league appearance in almost three years.
But he wasn't the only one throwing too many pitches. The entire Red Sox staff -- Ramirez along with Brad Penny, Manny Delcarmen, Justin Masterson and Daniel Bard -- threw 184 pitches in Thursday's loss, an average of more than 20 pitches per inning.
It was the ninth time Red Sox pitchers have thrown more than 180 pitches in a game -- and it was a stark contrast to, say, Josh Beckett's 94-pitch complete-game shutout in late June.
All season long, Red Sox pitchers have thrown too many pitches. Entering play Saturday, in fact, the Red Sox and the Marlins were the only teams to have seen its pitchers throw more than 13,000 pitches this season -- and the Red Sox and the Phillies were the only teams to have seen its pitchers average more than 17 pitches per inning. Here's the pitch-per-inning leaderboard:
1. Phillies, 17.18
2. Red Sox, 17.15
3. Orioles, 16.96
4. Indians, 16.93
5. Nationals, 16.91
6. Cubs, 16.84
7. Yankees, 16.83
8. Mets, 16.82
9. Athletics, 16.81
10. Brewers, 16.79
(You don't need me to tell you that six of those 10 teams have sub-.500 records and that four of them are in last place.)
Relievers have a tendency to throw more pitches per inning than starters, but the vaunted Red Sox bulpen is taking that to an extreme, too. Only the Cubs (18.46) and Nationals (17.9) -- again, that's not exactly company you want to keep -- are averaging more pitches per inning out of the bullpen than the Red Sox (17.85).
And no team in baseball has seen its relievers average more pitches per batter faced than the Red Sox. Here's the Top 10:
t-1. Red Sox, 4.13
t-1. Cubs, 4.13
3. Phillies, 4.01
4. Mariners, 4.01
5. Yankees, 4.00
6. Giants, 3.97
7. Rangers, 3.96
8. Athletics, 3.95
9. Royals, 3.94
10. Tigers, 3.94
Terry Francona has made it his mission to manage his bullpen carefully, to limit the number of innings his relievers throw and even to pay careful attention to how often he has them up and warming in games in which they don't pitch.
But if his relievers aren't going to be more efficient with their pitches, there's not much more he can do.
But he wasn't the only one throwing too many pitches. The entire Red Sox staff -- Ramirez along with Brad Penny, Manny Delcarmen, Justin Masterson and Daniel Bard -- threw 184 pitches in Thursday's loss, an average of more than 20 pitches per inning.
It was the ninth time Red Sox pitchers have thrown more than 180 pitches in a game -- and it was a stark contrast to, say, Josh Beckett's 94-pitch complete-game shutout in late June.
All season long, Red Sox pitchers have thrown too many pitches. Entering play Saturday, in fact, the Red Sox and the Marlins were the only teams to have seen its pitchers throw more than 13,000 pitches this season -- and the Red Sox and the Phillies were the only teams to have seen its pitchers average more than 17 pitches per inning. Here's the pitch-per-inning leaderboard:
1. Phillies, 17.18
2. Red Sox, 17.15
3. Orioles, 16.96
4. Indians, 16.93
5. Nationals, 16.91
6. Cubs, 16.84
7. Yankees, 16.83
8. Mets, 16.82
9. Athletics, 16.81
10. Brewers, 16.79
(You don't need me to tell you that six of those 10 teams have sub-.500 records and that four of them are in last place.)
Relievers have a tendency to throw more pitches per inning than starters, but the vaunted Red Sox bulpen is taking that to an extreme, too. Only the Cubs (18.46) and Nationals (17.9) -- again, that's not exactly company you want to keep -- are averaging more pitches per inning out of the bullpen than the Red Sox (17.85).
And no team in baseball has seen its relievers average more pitches per batter faced than the Red Sox. Here's the Top 10:
t-1. Red Sox, 4.13
t-1. Cubs, 4.13
3. Phillies, 4.01
4. Mariners, 4.01
5. Yankees, 4.00
6. Giants, 3.97
7. Rangers, 3.96
8. Athletics, 3.95
9. Royals, 3.94
10. Tigers, 3.94
Terry Francona has made it his mission to manage his bullpen carefully, to limit the number of innings his relievers throw and even to pay careful attention to how often he has them up and warming in games in which they don't pitch.
But if his relievers aren't going to be more efficient with their pitches, there's not much more he can do.
Friday, July 10, 2009
Listening and not listening
J.P. Ricciardi set off a firestorm of conversation throughout the baseball world when he told FoxSports' Ken Rosenthal he was open to "listening" to offers for ace pitcher Roy Halladay. Talking heads and tapping fingers all over the country began trying to piece together offers that would give their favorite team a chance to land perhaps baseball's best pitcher.
The news, of course, wasn't that Ricciardi suddenly was listening. Ricciardi always is listening. If he ever hung up the phone simply because another general manager wanted to talk about Halladay, he wouldn't be doing his job as a general manager. Had Twins general manager Bill Smith called this winter and offered Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, Ricciardi would have made that trade in about two seconds flat.
Every team has a player or two around whom they're hoping to build, but the level of "We're not going to listen" varies wildly from team to team. Here's a look at the player on each of the other 29 teams who would be least likely to be traded ranked by just how unlikely it would be:
No, really, we're not listening
1. Albert Pujols, Cardinals
Pujols is the St. Louis franchise. He's also the best player in the game. The Texas Rangers could offer their 25-man roster to the Cardinals for Pujols and John Mozeliak probably wouldn't do it. In fact, that's how you can decide if a player truly is untouchable. Just ask the question: "Would you trade him straight up for Pujols?" The answer to that question, in 100 percent of cases, is, "Yes."
2. Zack Greinke, Royals
3. Matt Wieters, Orioles
We can lump these two together because a trade of either would send the following message to fans: We don't really care about our franchise. Greinke is the only ray of light to come out of Kansas City in years, and Wieters once hit a home run into McCovey Cove in San Francisco -- from Baltimore. (That may or may not actually be true.) An opposing general manager would have to shout really fast -- "WewantWietersand we'llgiveyouDavidWrightand JoseReyesforhim!" -- to get either Mike Flanagan or Dayton Moore not to hang up the phone. Wieters and Greinke give fans a reason to be optimistic about two teams that haven't given much reason for optimism lately.
4. Tim Lincecum, Giants
Just think: Lincecum and Barry Zito, together, are being paid $19.15 million this year. One of the two has a 2.33 ERA and 149 strikeouts. The other is making $18.5 million.
5. Evan Longoria, Rays
He's already one of the best players in the game, and he's not yet 24 years old. If the Rays have their way, he'll be hitting home runs in the playoffs for years to come.
6. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
Not only is he extraordinarily talented and extraordinarily affordable, but he's a San Diego native and is almost universally beloved in his home city.
7. Grady Sizemore, Indians
If the Indians were to trade Cliff Lee or Victor Martinez, they'd be announcing to their fans that they've given up on the 2010 season. If they were to trade Sizemore, they'd be announcing to their fans that they've given up, period.
8. Joe Mauer, Twins
Only this low because he's set to be a free agent in two years, so a handful of Twins fans would understand the rationale. He otherwise is to Minnesota what Gonzalez is to San Diego.
9. Tommy Hanson, Braves
If you're the reason the Braves burned bridges with Tom Glavine, well, you're going stick around for a while.
10. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks have never really had a franchise player. (No, Luis Gonzalez doesn't count.) Upton will be -- or already is -- their first.
11. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
This means you, Red Sox fans who think you can get him back.
12. Chase Utley, Phillies
The best second baseman in the game, the only reason Ruben Amaro would even think about making a deal would be to clear the $60 million he's owed from 2010-13 off the books.
13. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates
Neal Huntington has shown a willingness to deal anyone and everyone, but you can't claim you're building toward the future if you trade away McCutchen.
14. Josh Hamilton, Rangers
The Rangers gave Hamilton his second chance a couple of years ago, and it's paid off big-time. It would almost seem heartless to trade the guy now.
15. Ryan Braun, Brewers
Not only is he one of the best young hitters in the game, but he's not even due $10 million a year in salary until 2014.
You can leave a message if you want
16. Derek Jeter, Yankees
He's getting old and still has no defensive range, but imagine the riots in the Bronx if Jeter ever was traded.
17. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
He's another aging face of an organization due quite a bit of money over the next few years. (He's owed $17 million every year until 2012, to be precise.) It wouldn't be a bad thing for the Mariners to pick up some pitching prospects and then spend Ichiro's money on a free agent like Jason Bay. But it's also clear that they've staked their future on Ichiro, and a deal like that would be a tough sell to the team's Pacific Northwest -- and Japanese -- fan base.
18. Manny Ramirez, Dodgers
It's not like any other team is beating down Ned Colletti's door to deal for Ramirez, anyway, but the Dodgers have invested so much in Ramirez over the last 11 months that they'd be insane to ship him out for anything less than an overwhelming haul of young players.
19. Oliver Perez, Mets
Wait, no, that's not right.
19. David Wright, Mets
The Mets might be in bad shape now, but there's still a core in place to compete. David Wright is New York's next Jeter.
20. Jon Lester, Red Sox
It's a testament to Theo Epstein that the Red Sox don't have to stake themselves to any one young player going forward. They'd rather not trade Lester -- or Dustin Pedroia or Kevin Youkilis, for that matter -- but if the Marlins offered Ramirez, they'd at least think about it.
21. Justin Verlander, Tigers
It's no coincidence that Verlander is to the Tigers what Lester is to the Red Sox -- a staff ace and a strikeout machine.
22. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
He's the only thing resembling a franchise player on that roster, but he's still only the third-best third baseman in his division. (From the AP story about his All-Star selection: "The only statistical category in which Zimmerman leads the Nationals are doubles (22) and errors (12)."
We have no reason at all not to listen
23. Brett Anderson, Athletics
Like the Red Sox with Lester, the Athletics would be loath to trade a pitcher who might already be their staff ace. But with so many holes all over the field, if Anderson could fetch a package of big-league-ready talent, Billy Beane would do it.
24. Jay Bruce, Reds
He's a budding star, but if the Reds could get overwhelmed with an offer, you'd think they'd be willing to consider it.
25. Carlos Quentin, White Sox
You also might be selling high on last season's 36 home runs if you could get a top-of-the-rotation starter in exchange for him.
26. Jered Weaver, Angels
He should have been an All-Star this year, but he's still the type of young pitcher who's eminently replaceable if someone comes along with the right deal. If the Blue Jays called and offered Halladay straight up for Weaver, you'd think the Angels would have to jump at that deal.
27. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
It's not much of a reach to take the stance that Tulowitzki peaked two years ago and might never again have the trade value he has now. If someone offered a front-line starting pitcher, the Rockies would have to make that deal.
28. Geovany Soto, Cubs
It's not easy to find a young catcher who burst onto the scene quite like Soto did a year ago, but he's regressed badly in his sophomore season and just landed on the disabled list with an oblique strain.
29. Roy Oswalt, Astros
Drayton McLane has refused to sign off on any deal that includes his team's 32-year-old ace, but that's probably not a good stance to take. Oswalt is owed big money over the next three seasons -- $15 million in 2010, $16 million in 2011 and either $16 million or a $2 million option in 2012 -- but the Astros have gone pretty much nowhere with him at the top of their pitching staff. If someone offered the type of package Ricciardi wants for Halladay, the Astros would be making a mistake not to think long and hard about taking it.
The news, of course, wasn't that Ricciardi suddenly was listening. Ricciardi always is listening. If he ever hung up the phone simply because another general manager wanted to talk about Halladay, he wouldn't be doing his job as a general manager. Had Twins general manager Bill Smith called this winter and offered Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, Ricciardi would have made that trade in about two seconds flat.
Every team has a player or two around whom they're hoping to build, but the level of "We're not going to listen" varies wildly from team to team. Here's a look at the player on each of the other 29 teams who would be least likely to be traded ranked by just how unlikely it would be:
No, really, we're not listening
1. Albert Pujols, Cardinals
Pujols is the St. Louis franchise. He's also the best player in the game. The Texas Rangers could offer their 25-man roster to the Cardinals for Pujols and John Mozeliak probably wouldn't do it. In fact, that's how you can decide if a player truly is untouchable. Just ask the question: "Would you trade him straight up for Pujols?" The answer to that question, in 100 percent of cases, is, "Yes."
2. Zack Greinke, Royals
3. Matt Wieters, Orioles
We can lump these two together because a trade of either would send the following message to fans: We don't really care about our franchise. Greinke is the only ray of light to come out of Kansas City in years, and Wieters once hit a home run into McCovey Cove in San Francisco -- from Baltimore. (That may or may not actually be true.) An opposing general manager would have to shout really fast -- "WewantWietersand we'llgiveyouDavidWrightand JoseReyesforhim!" -- to get either Mike Flanagan or Dayton Moore not to hang up the phone. Wieters and Greinke give fans a reason to be optimistic about two teams that haven't given much reason for optimism lately.
4. Tim Lincecum, Giants
Just think: Lincecum and Barry Zito, together, are being paid $19.15 million this year. One of the two has a 2.33 ERA and 149 strikeouts. The other is making $18.5 million.
5. Evan Longoria, Rays
He's already one of the best players in the game, and he's not yet 24 years old. If the Rays have their way, he'll be hitting home runs in the playoffs for years to come.
6. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
Not only is he extraordinarily talented and extraordinarily affordable, but he's a San Diego native and is almost universally beloved in his home city.
7. Grady Sizemore, Indians
If the Indians were to trade Cliff Lee or Victor Martinez, they'd be announcing to their fans that they've given up on the 2010 season. If they were to trade Sizemore, they'd be announcing to their fans that they've given up, period.
8. Joe Mauer, Twins
Only this low because he's set to be a free agent in two years, so a handful of Twins fans would understand the rationale. He otherwise is to Minnesota what Gonzalez is to San Diego.
9. Tommy Hanson, Braves
If you're the reason the Braves burned bridges with Tom Glavine, well, you're going stick around for a while.
10. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks have never really had a franchise player. (No, Luis Gonzalez doesn't count.) Upton will be -- or already is -- their first.
11. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
This means you, Red Sox fans who think you can get him back.
12. Chase Utley, Phillies
The best second baseman in the game, the only reason Ruben Amaro would even think about making a deal would be to clear the $60 million he's owed from 2010-13 off the books.
13. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates
Neal Huntington has shown a willingness to deal anyone and everyone, but you can't claim you're building toward the future if you trade away McCutchen.
14. Josh Hamilton, Rangers
The Rangers gave Hamilton his second chance a couple of years ago, and it's paid off big-time. It would almost seem heartless to trade the guy now.
15. Ryan Braun, Brewers
Not only is he one of the best young hitters in the game, but he's not even due $10 million a year in salary until 2014.
You can leave a message if you want
16. Derek Jeter, Yankees
He's getting old and still has no defensive range, but imagine the riots in the Bronx if Jeter ever was traded.
17. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
He's another aging face of an organization due quite a bit of money over the next few years. (He's owed $17 million every year until 2012, to be precise.) It wouldn't be a bad thing for the Mariners to pick up some pitching prospects and then spend Ichiro's money on a free agent like Jason Bay. But it's also clear that they've staked their future on Ichiro, and a deal like that would be a tough sell to the team's Pacific Northwest -- and Japanese -- fan base.
18. Manny Ramirez, Dodgers
It's not like any other team is beating down Ned Colletti's door to deal for Ramirez, anyway, but the Dodgers have invested so much in Ramirez over the last 11 months that they'd be insane to ship him out for anything less than an overwhelming haul of young players.
19. Oliver Perez, Mets
Wait, no, that's not right.
19. David Wright, Mets
The Mets might be in bad shape now, but there's still a core in place to compete. David Wright is New York's next Jeter.
20. Jon Lester, Red Sox
It's a testament to Theo Epstein that the Red Sox don't have to stake themselves to any one young player going forward. They'd rather not trade Lester -- or Dustin Pedroia or Kevin Youkilis, for that matter -- but if the Marlins offered Ramirez, they'd at least think about it.
21. Justin Verlander, Tigers
It's no coincidence that Verlander is to the Tigers what Lester is to the Red Sox -- a staff ace and a strikeout machine.
22. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
He's the only thing resembling a franchise player on that roster, but he's still only the third-best third baseman in his division. (From the AP story about his All-Star selection: "The only statistical category in which Zimmerman leads the Nationals are doubles (22) and errors (12)."
We have no reason at all not to listen
23. Brett Anderson, Athletics
Like the Red Sox with Lester, the Athletics would be loath to trade a pitcher who might already be their staff ace. But with so many holes all over the field, if Anderson could fetch a package of big-league-ready talent, Billy Beane would do it.
24. Jay Bruce, Reds
He's a budding star, but if the Reds could get overwhelmed with an offer, you'd think they'd be willing to consider it.
25. Carlos Quentin, White Sox
You also might be selling high on last season's 36 home runs if you could get a top-of-the-rotation starter in exchange for him.
26. Jered Weaver, Angels
He should have been an All-Star this year, but he's still the type of young pitcher who's eminently replaceable if someone comes along with the right deal. If the Blue Jays called and offered Halladay straight up for Weaver, you'd think the Angels would have to jump at that deal.
27. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
It's not much of a reach to take the stance that Tulowitzki peaked two years ago and might never again have the trade value he has now. If someone offered a front-line starting pitcher, the Rockies would have to make that deal.
28. Geovany Soto, Cubs
It's not easy to find a young catcher who burst onto the scene quite like Soto did a year ago, but he's regressed badly in his sophomore season and just landed on the disabled list with an oblique strain.
29. Roy Oswalt, Astros
Drayton McLane has refused to sign off on any deal that includes his team's 32-year-old ace, but that's probably not a good stance to take. Oswalt is owed big money over the next three seasons -- $15 million in 2010, $16 million in 2011 and either $16 million or a $2 million option in 2012 -- but the Astros have gone pretty much nowhere with him at the top of their pitching staff. If someone offered the type of package Ricciardi wants for Halladay, the Astros would be making a mistake not to think long and hard about taking it.
Thursday, July 9, 2009
Bard has a chance to do what Masterson did
Daniel Bard and Terry Francona sat down to chat a couple of days ago about the role Bard has filled and will fill in the Red Sox bullpen. No longer a candidate to be sent back to Pawtucket -- he likely would have been a casualty had Daisuke Matsuzaka remained healthy -- Bard has looked more and more impressive the more opportunities he's had.
The rookie looked particularly impressive on Thursday in the aftermath of the disastrous sixth inning turned in by Manny Delcarmen and Justin Masterson. By the time Bard got a chance to pitch, it was 8-5 and the Royals were threatening again. A runner was on third with two outs thanks to an RBI triple surrendered by Ramon Ramirez.
Bard needed just three pitches -- a fastball, a fastball and a nasty slider -- to fan Billy Butler and get out of the eighth inning. He then fanned Jose Guillen and Mark Teahen to open the top of the ninth before getting Mike Jacobs to hit a weak fly ball to second base to retire the side.
"I thought Bard was tremendous," Francona said.
Bard, in large part due to his inexperience, remains one of the last options in the bullpen. He was up and throwing when starter Brad Penny ran into trouble in the fourth inning -- when the Red Sox still led by a 4-0 score -- but sat down and had to watch as Manny Delcarmen, Justin Masterson and Ramon Ramirez all were summoned into the game before he was.
If Hideki Okajima hadn't pitched in back-to-back games on Tuesday and Wednesday, he'd have been in there, too.
Bard knows where he stands. Francona laid it out for him.
"He said, 'You don't have a role,'" Bard said. "He goes, 'That's the one thing you give us: A lot of flexibility. If it's you and Oki both available and we need someone to throw the eighth inning, it's going to be Oki because he's experienced right now.' I'm totally behind that 100 percent. That's what's best for the team.
"Whatever my role is that night, I'm going to try to be the best at it that I can. Times will come where I need to throw those higher-leverage innings, and I'll try to be as prepared as I can when it happens."
As patient as Francona always will be with his pitchers -- he teased one veteran writer before Thursday's game about how quickly he was to try to run Okajima out of town last season -- he's not unwilling to give some innings to his youngsters, either.
It was less than a year ago, after all, that Masterson was doing exactly what Bard is doing now. The Red Sox had recalled the sinkerballer from Triple-A in late July and gave him a chance to get his feet wet in low-leverage spots. Each of his first 11 appearances came when the Red Sox either were losing or were winning by four or more runs. He'd been in the major leagues for almost a month before he had a chance to preserve a two-run lead in the late innings.
But by the time the playoffs rolled around, he might have been Francona's favorite righthanded reliever. He made more appearances (four) than any other reliever in the ALDS and made more appearances (five) than any other reliever except Okajima in the ALCS. He earned those appearances, too: He had a 2.13 ERA in September and a 1.86 ERA in his nine appearances in the postseason.
No one ever gave him an indication he was being promoted in any way. He just started getting the call in more and more big spots -- and he just kept on getting key outs.
"It just happened," he said with a grin. "You find yourself, all of a sudden, with a few good outings -- and there you are in situations. If you show the ability to be calm and show competence in those situations, you'll be OK."
Bard, of course, has visions of earning the same type of trust that his longtime buddy -- the two pitched on Cape Cod together four years ago -- earned a year ago.
He scuffled in Washington on June 25 but hasn't allowed a base-runner in the 5 1/3 innings he's pitched since, striking out 10 hitters in the process. He looked almost untouchable in two perfect innings against Baltimore on July 1 and looked equally dominant against the Royals on Thursday night.
At this point, that's all he can do.
"You just continue to do your stuff -- execute and perform," Masterson said. "You can't really worry about what's going on. Every time you go, try and pitch well. That's what he's been doing -- and, over time, you gain faith and get in those situations. We have a strong bullpen, so as we go on, everyone's going to get time and everyone's going to be needed."
Said Bard, "If you come in and throw strikes, that's the biggest thing. If you throw strikes and keep the ball down, you'll become a guy they can rely on. That's the position I'm trying to work my way into right now."
The rookie looked particularly impressive on Thursday in the aftermath of the disastrous sixth inning turned in by Manny Delcarmen and Justin Masterson. By the time Bard got a chance to pitch, it was 8-5 and the Royals were threatening again. A runner was on third with two outs thanks to an RBI triple surrendered by Ramon Ramirez.
Bard needed just three pitches -- a fastball, a fastball and a nasty slider -- to fan Billy Butler and get out of the eighth inning. He then fanned Jose Guillen and Mark Teahen to open the top of the ninth before getting Mike Jacobs to hit a weak fly ball to second base to retire the side.
"I thought Bard was tremendous," Francona said.
Bard, in large part due to his inexperience, remains one of the last options in the bullpen. He was up and throwing when starter Brad Penny ran into trouble in the fourth inning -- when the Red Sox still led by a 4-0 score -- but sat down and had to watch as Manny Delcarmen, Justin Masterson and Ramon Ramirez all were summoned into the game before he was.
If Hideki Okajima hadn't pitched in back-to-back games on Tuesday and Wednesday, he'd have been in there, too.
Bard knows where he stands. Francona laid it out for him.
"He said, 'You don't have a role,'" Bard said. "He goes, 'That's the one thing you give us: A lot of flexibility. If it's you and Oki both available and we need someone to throw the eighth inning, it's going to be Oki because he's experienced right now.' I'm totally behind that 100 percent. That's what's best for the team.
"Whatever my role is that night, I'm going to try to be the best at it that I can. Times will come where I need to throw those higher-leverage innings, and I'll try to be as prepared as I can when it happens."
As patient as Francona always will be with his pitchers -- he teased one veteran writer before Thursday's game about how quickly he was to try to run Okajima out of town last season -- he's not unwilling to give some innings to his youngsters, either.
It was less than a year ago, after all, that Masterson was doing exactly what Bard is doing now. The Red Sox had recalled the sinkerballer from Triple-A in late July and gave him a chance to get his feet wet in low-leverage spots. Each of his first 11 appearances came when the Red Sox either were losing or were winning by four or more runs. He'd been in the major leagues for almost a month before he had a chance to preserve a two-run lead in the late innings.
But by the time the playoffs rolled around, he might have been Francona's favorite righthanded reliever. He made more appearances (four) than any other reliever in the ALDS and made more appearances (five) than any other reliever except Okajima in the ALCS. He earned those appearances, too: He had a 2.13 ERA in September and a 1.86 ERA in his nine appearances in the postseason.
No one ever gave him an indication he was being promoted in any way. He just started getting the call in more and more big spots -- and he just kept on getting key outs.
"It just happened," he said with a grin. "You find yourself, all of a sudden, with a few good outings -- and there you are in situations. If you show the ability to be calm and show competence in those situations, you'll be OK."
Bard, of course, has visions of earning the same type of trust that his longtime buddy -- the two pitched on Cape Cod together four years ago -- earned a year ago.
He scuffled in Washington on June 25 but hasn't allowed a base-runner in the 5 1/3 innings he's pitched since, striking out 10 hitters in the process. He looked almost untouchable in two perfect innings against Baltimore on July 1 and looked equally dominant against the Royals on Thursday night.
At this point, that's all he can do.
"You just continue to do your stuff -- execute and perform," Masterson said. "You can't really worry about what's going on. Every time you go, try and pitch well. That's what he's been doing -- and, over time, you gain faith and get in those situations. We have a strong bullpen, so as we go on, everyone's going to get time and everyone's going to be needed."
Said Bard, "If you come in and throw strikes, that's the biggest thing. If you throw strikes and keep the ball down, you'll become a guy they can rely on. That's the position I'm trying to work my way into right now."
Red Sox again to miss top starter
Zack Greinke allowed three earned runs in six innings on Wednesday night, taking his fifth loss of the season. He gave up a couple of early runs and wasn't helped when his left fielder threw a rainbow back to the infield that allowed a key runner to take second base. He also wasn't helped by an offense that couldn't seem to solve a rookie named Luke French, scoring just one run in the 6 1/3 innings in which the soft-tossing lefty was in the game.
All that, though, isn't something the Red Sox are too worried about. Greinke could have pitched a one-hit shutout on Wednesday and it wouldn't have made any difference.
What matters is that Greinke won't pitch at Fenway Park this week -- and, thus, the Red Sox streak of missing some of the best pitchers in the major leagues will continue. Out of the top five starting pitchers in the American League, in fact, the Red Sox have faced just one:
Greinke (10-5, 2.12 ERA, 203 ERA+)
The odds-on favorite to start next week's All-Star Game pitched Wednesday night and will not pitch again until he shows up in St. Louis. That means he'll miss the only series the Royals play at Fenway Park this season. The Red Sox will travel to Kansas City in late September for four games that, given how tight the American League East suddenly looks, could loom large.
Edwin Jackson, Detroit (6-4, 2.59 ERA, 173 ERA+)
When the Red Sox traveled to Detroit in early May, they beat rookie Rick Porcello (4.14 ERA), Armando Galarraga (5.03 ERA) and Dontrelle Willis (7.49 ERA) and missed Jackson as well as American League strikeout leader Justin Verlander (3.59 ERA). Incredible.
The Tigers play four games at Fenway Park in mid-August. Wouldn't it be something to see Verlander match up against Josh Beckett or Jon Lester?
Felix Hernandez, Seattle (8-3, 2.62 ERA, 162 ERA+)
King Felix threw seven strong innings (three earned runs, seven hits, seven strikeouts, three walks) at Fenway Park on July 3, but Nick Green hit a two-run double off reliever Shawn Kelley in the bottom of the eighth inning to send the game to extra innings. The Mariners won in the 11th inning.
When the Red Sox played the Mariners in Seattle, though, they missed out on Hernandez. They instead faced Chris Jakubauskas, Garrett Olson and Justin Vargas -- and they still lost two out of three.
Roy Halladay, Toronto (10-2, 2.79 ERA, 154 ERA+)
This one has to be unbelievably frustrating for Cito Gaston and the Blue Jays. Five different pitchers have started their six games against the Red Sox and not one has been Halladay. As a group, they have a 4.94 ERA in those starts. Halladay, meanwhile, had a 2.56 ERA and a 24-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in five starts against the Red Sox a year ago.
(Maybe that's karma. The Red Sox had to face Halladay five times last season. That's not really fair, either.)
You have to believe Halladay will get a crack at the Red Sox, though, when the two teams meet immediately following the All-Star break.
Mark Buehrle, Chicago (9-2, 3.14 ERA, 147 ERA+)
The Red Sox have not yet played the White Sox. They won't play the White Sox, in fact, until a home-and-home scheduled for the last week of August and the first week of September.
Maybe, by then, Buehrle will have retired.
All that, though, isn't something the Red Sox are too worried about. Greinke could have pitched a one-hit shutout on Wednesday and it wouldn't have made any difference.
What matters is that Greinke won't pitch at Fenway Park this week -- and, thus, the Red Sox streak of missing some of the best pitchers in the major leagues will continue. Out of the top five starting pitchers in the American League, in fact, the Red Sox have faced just one:
Greinke (10-5, 2.12 ERA, 203 ERA+)
The odds-on favorite to start next week's All-Star Game pitched Wednesday night and will not pitch again until he shows up in St. Louis. That means he'll miss the only series the Royals play at Fenway Park this season. The Red Sox will travel to Kansas City in late September for four games that, given how tight the American League East suddenly looks, could loom large.
Edwin Jackson, Detroit (6-4, 2.59 ERA, 173 ERA+)
When the Red Sox traveled to Detroit in early May, they beat rookie Rick Porcello (4.14 ERA), Armando Galarraga (5.03 ERA) and Dontrelle Willis (7.49 ERA) and missed Jackson as well as American League strikeout leader Justin Verlander (3.59 ERA). Incredible.
The Tigers play four games at Fenway Park in mid-August. Wouldn't it be something to see Verlander match up against Josh Beckett or Jon Lester?
Felix Hernandez, Seattle (8-3, 2.62 ERA, 162 ERA+)
King Felix threw seven strong innings (three earned runs, seven hits, seven strikeouts, three walks) at Fenway Park on July 3, but Nick Green hit a two-run double off reliever Shawn Kelley in the bottom of the eighth inning to send the game to extra innings. The Mariners won in the 11th inning.
When the Red Sox played the Mariners in Seattle, though, they missed out on Hernandez. They instead faced Chris Jakubauskas, Garrett Olson and Justin Vargas -- and they still lost two out of three.
Roy Halladay, Toronto (10-2, 2.79 ERA, 154 ERA+)
This one has to be unbelievably frustrating for Cito Gaston and the Blue Jays. Five different pitchers have started their six games against the Red Sox and not one has been Halladay. As a group, they have a 4.94 ERA in those starts. Halladay, meanwhile, had a 2.56 ERA and a 24-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in five starts against the Red Sox a year ago.
(Maybe that's karma. The Red Sox had to face Halladay five times last season. That's not really fair, either.)
You have to believe Halladay will get a crack at the Red Sox, though, when the two teams meet immediately following the All-Star break.
Mark Buehrle, Chicago (9-2, 3.14 ERA, 147 ERA+)
The Red Sox have not yet played the White Sox. They won't play the White Sox, in fact, until a home-and-home scheduled for the last week of August and the first week of September.
Maybe, by then, Buehrle will have retired.
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Selling the farm for Halladay
The two early favorites in the Roy Halladay derby appear to be the Red Sox and Phillies. It should take about two seconds to figure out what those teams have in common -- and, thus, why neither should be all that anxious to swap the top three or four prospects in their farm system for Halladay.
The goal of every major-league front office is to win the World Series. Once you've won the World Series, though, that's when things get a little bit fuzzy. Some fans -- particularly fans in cities like Boston and New York -- expect a championship every year. Other fans would rather see a team that's in contention every year and not experience the roller coaster best exemplified by the Florida Marlins between 1997 and 2003.
That's what Theo Epstein has to think about right now.
Roy Halladay might be the best pitcher in baseball -- and if he's not the best, he's one of the top three or four. But he's under contract for $14.25 million this year and $15.75 million next year, and he's a free agent after that. He might demand an extension as part of any trade -- he has a no-trade clause he's willing to waive -- but, then again, he might be happy to sell his services on the open market.
To acquire Halladay, however, J.P. Ricciardi has said, will take a truckload of top prospects.
"It would take a lot for us to part with him," Ricciardi told the Globe. "We've gotten a lot of calls from teams but none of them are telling us at this point what they're willing to give up. If you're coming at us with a 'B' list of young players, don't bother. This is one of the five best players in baseball. It's going to take a significant package of players for us to even listen. So as the teams call we'll go through the ones we feel are the serious ones and then we'll start scouting their farm systems to see if there's anything we can do."
For the Red Sox, that starts with Clay Buchholz and probably includes pieces like Lars Anderson, Michael Bowden, Casey Kelly, Justin Masterson and/or Josh Reddick. For the Phillies, you're talking about a similar treasure chest -- including future ace Kyle Drabek, a first-round pick out of high school three years ago who has a 2.70 ERA in his first 46 2/3 innings at Double-A.
The Red Sox have an impressive foundation of young talent: Jon Lester, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis all are locked up at affordable money through 2012 or beyond. But those three alone aren't going to be enough to keep the Red Sox in contention -- just ask the Twins about trying to get to the World Series with two star position players and one lefthanded pitcher.
By trading Buchholz and friends for Halladay right now, the Red Sox would assert themselves as the clear favorites to win the World Series this season. The postseason pitching rotation of Beckett-Halladay-Lester would match Maddux-Smoltz-Glavine in its prime. It would be awe-inspiring to watch.
And, a year after that, Halladay could be gone. So, too, would be much of the minor-league foundation Epstein has worked so hard to build.
That's the risk you take. The Red Sox will have Buchholz under their control for five more seasons once he makes it back to the major leagues. They'll have Anderson, Bowden, Kelly and Reddick under their control for six seasons once they make it. They'll also have the opportunity to work out Pedroia- and Youkilis-esque extensions with all of them in the meantime.
If Halladay doesn't demand a lucrative extension -- he'd be right to ask for CC Sabathia money -- upon being traded, he'd likely pocket the $15-plus million due him next season and hit the free-agent market. Can you guess how much the Yankees would spend to get Halladay into their rotation?
When the Red Sox traded for Jason Bay, they knew they'd risk losing him if they didn't lock him up to a long-term deal right away. The Yankees have deep pockets and a need in left field, and they're likely going to throw far more money at Bay than he can turn down.
But the Red Sox didn't have to trade prospects for Bay. They traded Manny Ramirez. Nothing about the trade for Bay -- unless you still had high hopes for Brandon Moss -- affected the Red Sox's plans for 2010 or beyond.
Halladay, though, could leave after the 2010 season. So, too, could ace Josh Beckett. So, too, could slugger David Ortiz. Catcher Jason Varitek and third baseman Mike Lowell could retire. Closer Jonathan Papelbon could be a year away from landing a big-money contract elsewhere, too.
The Red Sox have poured the resources into the draft with an eye on replacing that big-league talent. Buchholz is a potential ace. Bowden is a middle-of-the-rotation guy. Reddick is an impact outfielder. Anderson is a slugging first baseman. At least three of those four would have to be dealt to Toronto in any deal for Halladay.
It all comes down to fundamental philosophy. Without Roy Halladay, the Red Sox are in position to be in contention for a division title every year for at least the next five or six years. With Roy Halladay, the Red Sox would be in position to win the World Series this season but would risk becoming a middle-of-the-pack team over the next five or six years.
The goal of every major-league front office is to win the World Series. Once you've won the World Series, though, that's when things get a little bit fuzzy. Some fans -- particularly fans in cities like Boston and New York -- expect a championship every year. Other fans would rather see a team that's in contention every year and not experience the roller coaster best exemplified by the Florida Marlins between 1997 and 2003.
That's what Theo Epstein has to think about right now.
Roy Halladay might be the best pitcher in baseball -- and if he's not the best, he's one of the top three or four. But he's under contract for $14.25 million this year and $15.75 million next year, and he's a free agent after that. He might demand an extension as part of any trade -- he has a no-trade clause he's willing to waive -- but, then again, he might be happy to sell his services on the open market.
To acquire Halladay, however, J.P. Ricciardi has said, will take a truckload of top prospects.
"It would take a lot for us to part with him," Ricciardi told the Globe. "We've gotten a lot of calls from teams but none of them are telling us at this point what they're willing to give up. If you're coming at us with a 'B' list of young players, don't bother. This is one of the five best players in baseball. It's going to take a significant package of players for us to even listen. So as the teams call we'll go through the ones we feel are the serious ones and then we'll start scouting their farm systems to see if there's anything we can do."
For the Red Sox, that starts with Clay Buchholz and probably includes pieces like Lars Anderson, Michael Bowden, Casey Kelly, Justin Masterson and/or Josh Reddick. For the Phillies, you're talking about a similar treasure chest -- including future ace Kyle Drabek, a first-round pick out of high school three years ago who has a 2.70 ERA in his first 46 2/3 innings at Double-A.
The Red Sox have an impressive foundation of young talent: Jon Lester, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis all are locked up at affordable money through 2012 or beyond. But those three alone aren't going to be enough to keep the Red Sox in contention -- just ask the Twins about trying to get to the World Series with two star position players and one lefthanded pitcher.
By trading Buchholz and friends for Halladay right now, the Red Sox would assert themselves as the clear favorites to win the World Series this season. The postseason pitching rotation of Beckett-Halladay-Lester would match Maddux-Smoltz-Glavine in its prime. It would be awe-inspiring to watch.
And, a year after that, Halladay could be gone. So, too, would be much of the minor-league foundation Epstein has worked so hard to build.
That's the risk you take. The Red Sox will have Buchholz under their control for five more seasons once he makes it back to the major leagues. They'll have Anderson, Bowden, Kelly and Reddick under their control for six seasons once they make it. They'll also have the opportunity to work out Pedroia- and Youkilis-esque extensions with all of them in the meantime.
If Halladay doesn't demand a lucrative extension -- he'd be right to ask for CC Sabathia money -- upon being traded, he'd likely pocket the $15-plus million due him next season and hit the free-agent market. Can you guess how much the Yankees would spend to get Halladay into their rotation?
When the Red Sox traded for Jason Bay, they knew they'd risk losing him if they didn't lock him up to a long-term deal right away. The Yankees have deep pockets and a need in left field, and they're likely going to throw far more money at Bay than he can turn down.
But the Red Sox didn't have to trade prospects for Bay. They traded Manny Ramirez. Nothing about the trade for Bay -- unless you still had high hopes for Brandon Moss -- affected the Red Sox's plans for 2010 or beyond.
Halladay, though, could leave after the 2010 season. So, too, could ace Josh Beckett. So, too, could slugger David Ortiz. Catcher Jason Varitek and third baseman Mike Lowell could retire. Closer Jonathan Papelbon could be a year away from landing a big-money contract elsewhere, too.
The Red Sox have poured the resources into the draft with an eye on replacing that big-league talent. Buchholz is a potential ace. Bowden is a middle-of-the-rotation guy. Reddick is an impact outfielder. Anderson is a slugging first baseman. At least three of those four would have to be dealt to Toronto in any deal for Halladay.
It all comes down to fundamental philosophy. Without Roy Halladay, the Red Sox are in position to be in contention for a division title every year for at least the next five or six years. With Roy Halladay, the Red Sox would be in position to win the World Series this season but would risk becoming a middle-of-the-pack team over the next five or six years.
Lowrie healthy, just needs at-bats
In case you're wondering why the heck Jed Lowrie isn't back yet: His wrist appears to be fine and his knee is mostly healed from the pitch that hit him a couple of weeks ago. The key now is getting at-bats. He tried to play at Triple-A Pawtucket and was rained out on back-to-back nights.
He was activated today from the 60-day disabled list and optioned to Single-A Lowell -- his call-up, though, will depend less on his health than on how his swing feels.
After playing for Double-A Portland and going 3-for-5 with a double on Monday, he left the SeaDogs to join Single-A Lowell to have a better chance at playing today. He then doubled in the bottom of the first.
He was activated today from the 60-day disabled list and optioned to Single-A Lowell -- his call-up, though, will depend less on his health than on how his swing feels.
After playing for Double-A Portland and going 3-for-5 with a double on Monday, he left the SeaDogs to join Single-A Lowell to have a better chance at playing today. He then doubled in the bottom of the first.
Ellsbury finding consistency on, off field
A year ago at this time, if Jacoby Ellsbury felt pretty good as he walked into the clubhouse, he'd head into the weight room and do a little lifting. If he was feeling a little beat up or worn down, he'd skip it. He still did all the lifting he needed to do, but his schedule depended more on how he was feeling than on what day it was.
Not this year.
This year, he's on a set schedule.
"Last year, I lifted when I felt better -- it was like, 'Well, I'm feeling a little dead today, so I'm not going to lift,'" he said. "This year, I'm on a routine. I'm on a schedule. A lot of the stuff I do now is routine-oriented -- I do this at the time -- just to stay consistent with everything."
His newfound consistency in his routine makes him a candidate to avoid the July slump he endured a year ago. He hit .272 and OBP'ed .343 before last year's All-Star break but went 9 for 54 (.173) over the next two weeks before righting the ship with a big August and September.
But he wasn't playing as often last season as he's playing now. When the Red Sox went into the All-Star break a year ago, Ellsbury had started in 77 of the team's first 97 games. This year's All-Star break a week away, and Ellsbury has played more games (78) than anyone except Jason Bay (81) and Dustin Pedroia (79).
For all of the concern about his on-base percentage and his strike-zone discipline, he's actually been the most consistent hitter the Red Sox have. He's the only player on the team to have hit .280 in April, May and June, and his .303 batting average leads the team by a healthy margin. (Kevin Youkilis is second at .291, and Pedroia is third at .290.)
That's a far cry from a year ago, a season in which he hit .280 in April, .245 in June and .340 in September.
Not this year.
This year, he's on a set schedule.
"Last year, I lifted when I felt better -- it was like, 'Well, I'm feeling a little dead today, so I'm not going to lift,'" he said. "This year, I'm on a routine. I'm on a schedule. A lot of the stuff I do now is routine-oriented -- I do this at the time -- just to stay consistent with everything."
His newfound consistency in his routine makes him a candidate to avoid the July slump he endured a year ago. He hit .272 and OBP'ed .343 before last year's All-Star break but went 9 for 54 (.173) over the next two weeks before righting the ship with a big August and September.
But he wasn't playing as often last season as he's playing now. When the Red Sox went into the All-Star break a year ago, Ellsbury had started in 77 of the team's first 97 games. This year's All-Star break a week away, and Ellsbury has played more games (78) than anyone except Jason Bay (81) and Dustin Pedroia (79).
For all of the concern about his on-base percentage and his strike-zone discipline, he's actually been the most consistent hitter the Red Sox have. He's the only player on the team to have hit .280 in April, May and June, and his .303 batting average leads the team by a healthy margin. (Kevin Youkilis is second at .291, and Pedroia is third at .290.)
That's a far cry from a year ago, a season in which he hit .280 in April, .245 in June and .340 in September.
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
'My job entails more than putting the hit and run on'
Terry Francona received an unexpected visitor the other day: Luis Andujar, who pitched for Francona at Double-A Birmingham during the 1993, 1994 and 1995 seasons. Andujar was 20 years old and less than two years out of the Dominican Republic when he and Francona first encountered each other.
Andujar didn't have an apartment when he got to Birmingham. He didn't have a car, either. His 34-year-old manager helped the young righty get an apartment and get a car -- and get a new car when the first one promptly broke down.
"It broke down that very day," Francona said. "I was the guy that helped him get his car, and then I was the guy that went and picked him up when his first car didn't work."
That, to Francona, is what being a manager is all about.
"My job entails more than putting the hit and run on," he said.
Francona played his big-league baseball in an era in which players were expected to devote themselves to their teams first and their families second, to hold off on taking care of their responsibilities at home during off-days or after the season ended.
When Francona was born, his dad -- playing for the Indians at the time -- didn't get to come see him for a couple of weeks. A generation later, Francona only made it to his wife's side "literally seven or eight minutes" before his son, Nick, was born, and he didn't get to the hospital where his daughter, Alyssa, was born until the next day.
"My wife's still mad at me," he said, "and it's 22 years later. ... We were playing in Cincinnati, and Pete (Rose) just said, 'We have a day off tomorrow. Go tomorrow.' I said, 'OK.'"
Other than Buck Rodgers, the Montreal Expos manager who "had a way of making you feel important," he said, Francona hadn't played for many managers who cared much about his players' private lives. It wasn't until he encountered guys like Andujar that he really learned how important it was to take care of his players off the field as well as on the field.
"What opened my eyes was going to the minor leagues as a manger and seeing what guys were dealing with," Francona said.
That's why there was never any doubt where Dustin Pedroia was supposed to be on Monday night.
Pedroia's wife, Kelli, was seven months into her first pregnancy when she abruptly went into labor and ended up the hospital. Doctors gave her "some shots," Pedroia said, to try to prevent her from delivering the baby at such an early date.
Pedroia stayed with his wife until she insisted he go to Fenway Park to play in his team's game.
"I kind of do what I'm told," the second baseman said with a smile.
When he showed up at the ballpark, though, Francona turned him around and sent him right back to the hospital.
"Hey, you’ve got to get out of here, man," he said. "You’ve got to take care of your family."
The 25-year-old second baseman spent the night on a tiny hospital bed -- "It's good I'm small," he said with a smirk -- before heading back to the ballpark on Tuesday afternoon.
"She's kind of out of it right now," he said. "She just said to go to the park and play: 'Go win and come back.' That's what we're trying to do today."
Pedroia didn't even have to think about Monday's game -- a game the Red Sox lost because they couldn't manage more than two hits off Oakland rookie Brett Anderson. The reigning American League MVP, of course, could have helped. But that's not what's most important. That's not why he was in their thoughts. That's not why general manager Theo Epstein sent over a text message late Monday night.
"He needed to not be here," Francona said. "Anybody that's been around him for any length of time knows how bad he wants to play. ... He needed to be with Kelli, and she needed him. Now that she's got some family here, he's a little more comfortable -- and they're a little more comfortable with him being here.
"He's a phone call away. If he needs to leave, we'll do that."
***
Postscript: Pedroia played all nine innings in Tuesday night's 5-2 win, and he even hit a line-drive single to left in the sixth inning to plate a key insurance run.
"Whether it had been a 14-hopper in the hole or whatever got it done, that was big in a lot of ways for him," left fielder Jason Bay said. "And us."
Said Francona, "It was nice to have him here. I think he was probably glad to be playing."
Andujar didn't have an apartment when he got to Birmingham. He didn't have a car, either. His 34-year-old manager helped the young righty get an apartment and get a car -- and get a new car when the first one promptly broke down.
"It broke down that very day," Francona said. "I was the guy that helped him get his car, and then I was the guy that went and picked him up when his first car didn't work."
That, to Francona, is what being a manager is all about.
"My job entails more than putting the hit and run on," he said.
Francona played his big-league baseball in an era in which players were expected to devote themselves to their teams first and their families second, to hold off on taking care of their responsibilities at home during off-days or after the season ended.
When Francona was born, his dad -- playing for the Indians at the time -- didn't get to come see him for a couple of weeks. A generation later, Francona only made it to his wife's side "literally seven or eight minutes" before his son, Nick, was born, and he didn't get to the hospital where his daughter, Alyssa, was born until the next day.
"My wife's still mad at me," he said, "and it's 22 years later. ... We were playing in Cincinnati, and Pete (Rose) just said, 'We have a day off tomorrow. Go tomorrow.' I said, 'OK.'"
Other than Buck Rodgers, the Montreal Expos manager who "had a way of making you feel important," he said, Francona hadn't played for many managers who cared much about his players' private lives. It wasn't until he encountered guys like Andujar that he really learned how important it was to take care of his players off the field as well as on the field.
"What opened my eyes was going to the minor leagues as a manger and seeing what guys were dealing with," Francona said.
That's why there was never any doubt where Dustin Pedroia was supposed to be on Monday night.
Pedroia's wife, Kelli, was seven months into her first pregnancy when she abruptly went into labor and ended up the hospital. Doctors gave her "some shots," Pedroia said, to try to prevent her from delivering the baby at such an early date.
Pedroia stayed with his wife until she insisted he go to Fenway Park to play in his team's game.
"I kind of do what I'm told," the second baseman said with a smile.
When he showed up at the ballpark, though, Francona turned him around and sent him right back to the hospital.
"Hey, you’ve got to get out of here, man," he said. "You’ve got to take care of your family."
The 25-year-old second baseman spent the night on a tiny hospital bed -- "It's good I'm small," he said with a smirk -- before heading back to the ballpark on Tuesday afternoon.
"She's kind of out of it right now," he said. "She just said to go to the park and play: 'Go win and come back.' That's what we're trying to do today."
Pedroia didn't even have to think about Monday's game -- a game the Red Sox lost because they couldn't manage more than two hits off Oakland rookie Brett Anderson. The reigning American League MVP, of course, could have helped. But that's not what's most important. That's not why he was in their thoughts. That's not why general manager Theo Epstein sent over a text message late Monday night.
"He needed to not be here," Francona said. "Anybody that's been around him for any length of time knows how bad he wants to play. ... He needed to be with Kelli, and she needed him. Now that she's got some family here, he's a little more comfortable -- and they're a little more comfortable with him being here.
"He's a phone call away. If he needs to leave, we'll do that."
***
Postscript: Pedroia played all nine innings in Tuesday night's 5-2 win, and he even hit a line-drive single to left in the sixth inning to plate a key insurance run.
"Whether it had been a 14-hopper in the hole or whatever got it done, that was big in a lot of ways for him," left fielder Jason Bay said. "And us."
Said Francona, "It was nice to have him here. I think he was probably glad to be playing."
Monday, July 6, 2009
Split to Ellis costs optimistic Smoltz
One more lesson for John Smoltz: In the American League, the hitter in the No. 9 spot can hurt you.
Smoltz made what he thought was a pretty good pitch to Mark Ellis, a splitfingered fastball down and in and pretty much where he wanted to put it. There were runners on first and third with two outs -- he'd already given up one run, and he'd have been perfectly happy to get out of the inning having allowed just that one run.
Ellis swung hard and stayed inside the ball and bounced it off the Jimmy Fund logo on the center-field side of the Green Monster. Two runs scored. A one-run game turned into a three-run game.
"I felt like it was a good enough pitch to not have that result," Smoltz said after having watched the tape. "The ball went down and stayed in and was down, and he just made, I think, a great adjustment. Camera angles are a little bit deceiving sometimes, and when I made the pitch on the mound, I felt like that was the right pitch. For him to hit it off the wall, it's like, well, unfortunately, it didn't work out -- and two runs scored."
Smoltz had thrown four pretty solid innings before rain interrupted things in Baltimore last Tuesday, but he allowed 10 hits and five earned runs in six innings against Oakland on Monday.
Three starts into his Red Sox career, he's no longer finding his way or going through the process or working his way back from anything. He's back. He's got the stuff he's going to have. It's just a matter of executing pitches -- and some of that, he said, has to do with getting used to the hitters he's facing.
"I've always felt like I could pitch anywhere, in any stadium, in any park, to any team," he said, "but there is some newness to it. There's some guys I haven't seen in a long time. This lineup had some familiar guys, but being comfortable and knowing who you're pitching against and really knowing the weaknesses will be something that, hopefully, I'll be able to put the ball exactly where I want to.
"There's nothing about today's game that had anything to do with the process. Today was just the simple fact that they got some hits."
"As he gets into the grind, we're already there," Red Sox manager Terry Francona. "(He wants to) get his legs under him, establish all his pitches, know what he can go to, things like that. ... We have the confidence that, as he gets there, he'll keep us in games."
Part of the problem, Smoltz said, was that the A's did exactly the opposite of what he'd expected. They went after his fastballs early in the count -- and they hit them.
"The scouting report was a little opposite on that," he said. "The scouting report was that they'd been very patient."
The Athletics have swung at 45.6 percent of pitches thrown to them, 11th-highest in the major leagues. They've been particularly aggressive on pitches in the strike zone, their rate of 67 percent ranking ninth-highest in the major leagues. The scouting report indeed was a little off. The "Moneyball" A's, they're not.
The A's generally were patient in the first inning but started to jump on the ball a little more in the second. Ryan Sweeney, the second hitter of the inning, flew to center on a first-pitch fastball up in the zone. Jason Giambi, Kurt Suzuki and Nomar Garciaparra then went after back-to-back-to-back pitches to open up the fourth inning -- Giambi doubled to center field, Suzuki bunted down the third-base line and Garciaparra ripped a single through the hole in the left side to score a run.
"Giambi hits a back-door slider off the wall, and that's why he's hit as many home runs as he has," Smoltz said. "The next guy bunts, a perfect bunt. At that point, I'm just trying to keep it to one run. The very next pitch, Nomar hits it in between the hole."
Two batters later -- Smoltz fanned Sweeney on a splitter and induced a ground ball that Nick Green and Julio Lugo turned into a fielder's choice -- Ellis came to the plate, the No. 9 hitter in the A's lineup. He put a good swing on what Smoltz maintained was a pretty decent pitch and, with the way Brett Anderson was pitching, put the game out of reach.
"I was really bearing down on Ellis," he said. "But in the American League, the ninth-hole hitter means nothing. There's nine hitters at the plate. ...
"I realize this is a process, but I want to pitch really well. I was getting after it today, and I got really upset when I threw that split to Ellis. I felt like it was the right pitch -- if I could get it down, I could get out with one run."
Said Francona, "It was down and probably not in the middle, but it just didn't bottom out enough and Ellis put a great swing on it. That was a big hit in the game."
Smoltz made what he thought was a pretty good pitch to Mark Ellis, a splitfingered fastball down and in and pretty much where he wanted to put it. There were runners on first and third with two outs -- he'd already given up one run, and he'd have been perfectly happy to get out of the inning having allowed just that one run.
Ellis swung hard and stayed inside the ball and bounced it off the Jimmy Fund logo on the center-field side of the Green Monster. Two runs scored. A one-run game turned into a three-run game.
"I felt like it was a good enough pitch to not have that result," Smoltz said after having watched the tape. "The ball went down and stayed in and was down, and he just made, I think, a great adjustment. Camera angles are a little bit deceiving sometimes, and when I made the pitch on the mound, I felt like that was the right pitch. For him to hit it off the wall, it's like, well, unfortunately, it didn't work out -- and two runs scored."
Smoltz had thrown four pretty solid innings before rain interrupted things in Baltimore last Tuesday, but he allowed 10 hits and five earned runs in six innings against Oakland on Monday.
Three starts into his Red Sox career, he's no longer finding his way or going through the process or working his way back from anything. He's back. He's got the stuff he's going to have. It's just a matter of executing pitches -- and some of that, he said, has to do with getting used to the hitters he's facing.
"I've always felt like I could pitch anywhere, in any stadium, in any park, to any team," he said, "but there is some newness to it. There's some guys I haven't seen in a long time. This lineup had some familiar guys, but being comfortable and knowing who you're pitching against and really knowing the weaknesses will be something that, hopefully, I'll be able to put the ball exactly where I want to.
"There's nothing about today's game that had anything to do with the process. Today was just the simple fact that they got some hits."
"As he gets into the grind, we're already there," Red Sox manager Terry Francona. "(He wants to) get his legs under him, establish all his pitches, know what he can go to, things like that. ... We have the confidence that, as he gets there, he'll keep us in games."
Part of the problem, Smoltz said, was that the A's did exactly the opposite of what he'd expected. They went after his fastballs early in the count -- and they hit them.
"The scouting report was a little opposite on that," he said. "The scouting report was that they'd been very patient."
The Athletics have swung at 45.6 percent of pitches thrown to them, 11th-highest in the major leagues. They've been particularly aggressive on pitches in the strike zone, their rate of 67 percent ranking ninth-highest in the major leagues. The scouting report indeed was a little off. The "Moneyball" A's, they're not.
The A's generally were patient in the first inning but started to jump on the ball a little more in the second. Ryan Sweeney, the second hitter of the inning, flew to center on a first-pitch fastball up in the zone. Jason Giambi, Kurt Suzuki and Nomar Garciaparra then went after back-to-back-to-back pitches to open up the fourth inning -- Giambi doubled to center field, Suzuki bunted down the third-base line and Garciaparra ripped a single through the hole in the left side to score a run.
"Giambi hits a back-door slider off the wall, and that's why he's hit as many home runs as he has," Smoltz said. "The next guy bunts, a perfect bunt. At that point, I'm just trying to keep it to one run. The very next pitch, Nomar hits it in between the hole."
Two batters later -- Smoltz fanned Sweeney on a splitter and induced a ground ball that Nick Green and Julio Lugo turned into a fielder's choice -- Ellis came to the plate, the No. 9 hitter in the A's lineup. He put a good swing on what Smoltz maintained was a pretty decent pitch and, with the way Brett Anderson was pitching, put the game out of reach.
"I was really bearing down on Ellis," he said. "But in the American League, the ninth-hole hitter means nothing. There's nine hitters at the plate. ...
"I realize this is a process, but I want to pitch really well. I was getting after it today, and I got really upset when I threw that split to Ellis. I felt like it was the right pitch -- if I could get it down, I could get out with one run."
Said Francona, "It was down and probably not in the middle, but it just didn't bottom out enough and Ellis put a great swing on it. That was a big hit in the game."
Bailey, Bates encountering opposite emotions
Daniel Bard and Aaron Bates put aside their differences long ago.
Bard first encountered the newest Red Sox first baseman from opposite ends of Tobacco Road: Bard was pitching for North Carolina, and Bates was hitting home runs for N.C. State. In the two games in which the two faced each other, Bates went 1-for-6 with a walk and a strikeout -- and while Bates' Wolfpack won the first game by an 8-7 score, Bard threw a complete-game shutout en route to a 4-0 win for the Tar Heels.
"He didn't like hitting sinkers or sliders, so that's all I ever threw him," Bard said with a grin.
That scouting report may or may not be applicable these days. Bates overhauled the mechanics of his swing this winter, ditching his high leg kick and toe-tap in favor of a swing that doesn't leave him so vulnerable to pitches on the inside half of the plate.
The result: A year after Bates hit 11 home runs and slugged .420 in a full season with Double-A Portland, he hit nine home runs in barely 200 at-bats and slugged .505 to earn a promotion to Triple-A Pawtucket.
"The guy can hit," Bard said. "He's put up numbers everywhere he's gone. Going back to Double-A this year was frustrating in a way for him, but it was good because it motivated him to prove to a lot of people that he's better than that. He's apparently had an unbelievable year so far, and it's well-deserved."
But he still had just 24 Triple-A games under his belt as of late Sunday night. When the Red Sox summoned him to the major leagues to replace the injured Jeff Bailey, the call came totally out of the blue.
"I didn't know Bailey got hurt," Bates said, "so, originally, I was like, 'For what? What do you mean? Who am I going to go for?'"
Bates jumped a plane this morning, pausing only to call his mother -- who lives in Amherst, Mass. -- as well as his sister, who will begin her senior year at N.C. State this fall, and his brother. But when he found out he'd be in the starting lineup, playing first base and hitting ninth, he made a few more phone calls. N.C. State Elliott Avent was among the 15 or so friends and family in attendance when Bates made his big-league debut.
It all happened quickly. The Red Sox didn't even have a nameplate made out for Bates' locker. But that didn't mean the rookie wasn't going to make the most of what likely will be a brief big-league stint.
"As long as you're playing hard and having fun and playing the game the right way, the rest of the stuff falls into place," he said.
***
In front of the locker next to Bates' sat Jeff Bailey, a splint on his left ankle and the USA Today crossword puzzle in his left hand.
"Who's 'A Marx brother born Leonard?'" he asked the reporters clustered around him.
"Leonard Marx," one smart aleck piped up.
"Zeppo," another suggested. "Harpo. Groucho."
"It was probably Harpo," one said.
"Probably not Karl, huh?" still another said.
(No one stumbled upon the correct answer -- Chico.)
Bailey will have plenty of time to work on his crossword puzzles now that he's spending the next 15 days on the disabled list. The first baseman suffered a high ankle sprain in the seventh inning of Saturday's loss to Seattle -- Ronny Cedeno stepped on his foot trying to beat out a double-play ball. He underwent an MRI exam on Monday morning to get a sense for how long his injury would take to heal.
He was optimistic about his progress -- he said he felt far better on Monday than he had on Sunday, and he even was putting a little weight on the ankle. But he'll miss the run of lefthanders the Oakland Athletics are throwing at the Red Sox this week, the same hitters he was brought to Boston to face.
For a guy for whom every big-league at-bat counts, the injury came at a particularly unfortunate time.
"It's only going to be a couple of weeks, but it's frustrating," he said. "They've got two lefthanders starting against us. Maybe three. That was going to be some playing time right there, and it stinks when you don't get to do what you're here to do."
Bard first encountered the newest Red Sox first baseman from opposite ends of Tobacco Road: Bard was pitching for North Carolina, and Bates was hitting home runs for N.C. State. In the two games in which the two faced each other, Bates went 1-for-6 with a walk and a strikeout -- and while Bates' Wolfpack won the first game by an 8-7 score, Bard threw a complete-game shutout en route to a 4-0 win for the Tar Heels.
"He didn't like hitting sinkers or sliders, so that's all I ever threw him," Bard said with a grin.
That scouting report may or may not be applicable these days. Bates overhauled the mechanics of his swing this winter, ditching his high leg kick and toe-tap in favor of a swing that doesn't leave him so vulnerable to pitches on the inside half of the plate.
The result: A year after Bates hit 11 home runs and slugged .420 in a full season with Double-A Portland, he hit nine home runs in barely 200 at-bats and slugged .505 to earn a promotion to Triple-A Pawtucket.
"The guy can hit," Bard said. "He's put up numbers everywhere he's gone. Going back to Double-A this year was frustrating in a way for him, but it was good because it motivated him to prove to a lot of people that he's better than that. He's apparently had an unbelievable year so far, and it's well-deserved."
But he still had just 24 Triple-A games under his belt as of late Sunday night. When the Red Sox summoned him to the major leagues to replace the injured Jeff Bailey, the call came totally out of the blue.
"I didn't know Bailey got hurt," Bates said, "so, originally, I was like, 'For what? What do you mean? Who am I going to go for?'"
Bates jumped a plane this morning, pausing only to call his mother -- who lives in Amherst, Mass. -- as well as his sister, who will begin her senior year at N.C. State this fall, and his brother. But when he found out he'd be in the starting lineup, playing first base and hitting ninth, he made a few more phone calls. N.C. State Elliott Avent was among the 15 or so friends and family in attendance when Bates made his big-league debut.
It all happened quickly. The Red Sox didn't even have a nameplate made out for Bates' locker. But that didn't mean the rookie wasn't going to make the most of what likely will be a brief big-league stint.
"As long as you're playing hard and having fun and playing the game the right way, the rest of the stuff falls into place," he said.
***
In front of the locker next to Bates' sat Jeff Bailey, a splint on his left ankle and the USA Today crossword puzzle in his left hand.
"Who's 'A Marx brother born Leonard?'" he asked the reporters clustered around him.
"Leonard Marx," one smart aleck piped up.
"Zeppo," another suggested. "Harpo. Groucho."
"It was probably Harpo," one said.
"Probably not Karl, huh?" still another said.
(No one stumbled upon the correct answer -- Chico.)
Bailey will have plenty of time to work on his crossword puzzles now that he's spending the next 15 days on the disabled list. The first baseman suffered a high ankle sprain in the seventh inning of Saturday's loss to Seattle -- Ronny Cedeno stepped on his foot trying to beat out a double-play ball. He underwent an MRI exam on Monday morning to get a sense for how long his injury would take to heal.
He was optimistic about his progress -- he said he felt far better on Monday than he had on Sunday, and he even was putting a little weight on the ankle. But he'll miss the run of lefthanders the Oakland Athletics are throwing at the Red Sox this week, the same hitters he was brought to Boston to face.
For a guy for whom every big-league at-bat counts, the injury came at a particularly unfortunate time.
"It's only going to be a couple of weeks, but it's frustrating," he said. "They've got two lefthanders starting against us. Maybe three. That was going to be some playing time right there, and it stinks when you don't get to do what you're here to do."
Be patient, but be aggressive
It's sometimes tough to stay patient at the plate. Walks are great, after all, and walks have set up more than a few Red Sox wins this season. But unless an opponent is pitching like he needs a seeing-eye dog to find the plate, you're going to need to get some hits to score some runs.
That's the dilemma the Red Sox faced against the Seattle bullpen on Sunday. Starter Brandon Morrow had allowed three home runs but not much else in his six innings on the Fenway Park mound. He'd even hit 99 miles an hour on the radar gun in the fifth. It looked as though an error and a bases-loaded triple were going to be enough to earn the Mariners a sweep of the three-game series.
But J.D. Drew worked a one-out walk off reliever Miguel Batista and Dustin Pedroia followed with a line-drive single to left field. Two batters later, David Ortiz went after a 3-0 fastball and singled through the shift to plate the tying run. That's when Mariners manager Don Wakamatsu summoned flame-throwing righty Mark Lowe. Jason Bay was coming to the plate with runners on first and third and two outs.
Lowe missed with a slider. Bay laid off.
Lowe missed with another slider. Bay laid off.
Lowe missed with yet another slider. Bay laid off.
The problem, of course, was that a walk wasn't going to drive in a run. Only a hit would drive in a run. On top of that, Bay had just seen Ortiz pounce on a 3-0 fastball and rope a run-scoring single to right field. That was as good a reason as any to be ready to swing.
Lowe threw a fastball low and away that, according to MLB.com, might have actually been in the strike zone. Bay laid off. Ball four.
But Bay is a patient hitter. He's prone to strikeouts, but he still swings at fewer than 20 pitches of pitches out of the strike zone and has an on-base percentage that rivals that of Dustin Pedroia.
Jacoby Ellsbury, on the other hand, has swung at more pitches out of the strike zone (26.3 percent) than any Red Sox regular except Nick Green (a whopping 39.1 percent). He lost his job as Red Sox leadoff hitter because he wasn't getting on base -- i.e. walking -- often enough. He's even started showing some power -- and he'd hit a long, long home run just the previous inning.
"He's hitting bombs," Pedroia said, laughing. "He said he's like Barry Bonds: He's a speed guy at the start, and then he's going to turn into a power hitter."
That was a solo shot. This time, Ellsbury was coming to the plate with the game tied and the bases loaded. A single would give the Red Sox the lead. A double or a home run would clear the bases and give the Red Sox some much-needed breathing room.
A walk, of course, would give the Red Sox the lead, too.
Ellsbury took two 98-mile-an-hour fastballs out of the strike zone -- one just low and inside, and one just high. He then took a 97-mile-an-hour fastball right down the middle. The next two pitches barely, barely, barely missed: One was just low, and one was just outside.
Ellsbury never took his bat off his shoulder. Ball four. Pedroia trotted home from the third base with the go-ahead run.
"We needed to be patient," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said. "They were having trouble finding the strike zone. We talk all the time: 'Get a good pitch and whack it.' But in that situation, we needed to be patient because you don't want to help them. Even if you line out or something, you're coming back with a nice at-bat but nothing to show for it."
Said Pedroia, "In that situation, when a guy's having a hard time throwing strikes, the best thing to do is not swing. I know it's tough -- especially with the kind of stuff (Lowe) has. He throws almost 100 miles an hour every pitch. The biggest thing is to try to get to 3-2 or have him walk you. If you get to 3-2, you know it's going to be a battle because he's so good."
Mariners pitching coach Rick Adair then made a visit to the mound -- likely to remind Lowe that it helps to throw strikes every once in a while -- while Mark Kotsay was striding to the plate. Kotsay hasn't played regularly this season and thus has become a bit more of a free-swinger than he used to be. The bases were still loaded. A walk would mean another run.
"When the guy in front of you walks and the pitcher's having trouble with location and command, you want to get a good pitch on the plate and force his hand and try to get ahead in the count," Kotsay said. "Once you get ahead in the count, you know that he's not trying to locate -- he's just trying to throw strikes."
Kotsay got himself ahead in the count, fouling off one pitch but taking three others outside and off the plate. He then swung and missed at a 97-mile-an-hour fastball up and away. Full count.
The next pitch came in over the inside corner at 98 miles an hour. If Kotsay had stood and watched it, had been too patient, it would have been a strike -- and the inning would have been over.
But Kotsay got the bat around and got the barrel on the ball and rolled a ground ball between the first baseman and second baseman. The single plated Ortiz and Bay with the two runs that gave the Red Sox a comfortable cushion.
"You can't lose your aggressiveness to the zone," Kotsay said. "If you do that, he makes a great pitch on you and you're standing and looking at it. He throws 97 or 98. You keep your aggressiveness in the zone."
Being patient and being aggressive: It's really, really difficult to do both. But that's what the Red Sox did on Sunday, and that's why they avoided a sweep with their seventh-inning rally.
That's the dilemma the Red Sox faced against the Seattle bullpen on Sunday. Starter Brandon Morrow had allowed three home runs but not much else in his six innings on the Fenway Park mound. He'd even hit 99 miles an hour on the radar gun in the fifth. It looked as though an error and a bases-loaded triple were going to be enough to earn the Mariners a sweep of the three-game series.
But J.D. Drew worked a one-out walk off reliever Miguel Batista and Dustin Pedroia followed with a line-drive single to left field. Two batters later, David Ortiz went after a 3-0 fastball and singled through the shift to plate the tying run. That's when Mariners manager Don Wakamatsu summoned flame-throwing righty Mark Lowe. Jason Bay was coming to the plate with runners on first and third and two outs.
Lowe missed with a slider. Bay laid off.
Lowe missed with another slider. Bay laid off.
Lowe missed with yet another slider. Bay laid off.
The problem, of course, was that a walk wasn't going to drive in a run. Only a hit would drive in a run. On top of that, Bay had just seen Ortiz pounce on a 3-0 fastball and rope a run-scoring single to right field. That was as good a reason as any to be ready to swing.
Lowe threw a fastball low and away that, according to MLB.com, might have actually been in the strike zone. Bay laid off. Ball four.
But Bay is a patient hitter. He's prone to strikeouts, but he still swings at fewer than 20 pitches of pitches out of the strike zone and has an on-base percentage that rivals that of Dustin Pedroia.
Jacoby Ellsbury, on the other hand, has swung at more pitches out of the strike zone (26.3 percent) than any Red Sox regular except Nick Green (a whopping 39.1 percent). He lost his job as Red Sox leadoff hitter because he wasn't getting on base -- i.e. walking -- often enough. He's even started showing some power -- and he'd hit a long, long home run just the previous inning.
"He's hitting bombs," Pedroia said, laughing. "He said he's like Barry Bonds: He's a speed guy at the start, and then he's going to turn into a power hitter."
That was a solo shot. This time, Ellsbury was coming to the plate with the game tied and the bases loaded. A single would give the Red Sox the lead. A double or a home run would clear the bases and give the Red Sox some much-needed breathing room.
A walk, of course, would give the Red Sox the lead, too.
Ellsbury took two 98-mile-an-hour fastballs out of the strike zone -- one just low and inside, and one just high. He then took a 97-mile-an-hour fastball right down the middle. The next two pitches barely, barely, barely missed: One was just low, and one was just outside.
Ellsbury never took his bat off his shoulder. Ball four. Pedroia trotted home from the third base with the go-ahead run.
"We needed to be patient," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said. "They were having trouble finding the strike zone. We talk all the time: 'Get a good pitch and whack it.' But in that situation, we needed to be patient because you don't want to help them. Even if you line out or something, you're coming back with a nice at-bat but nothing to show for it."
Said Pedroia, "In that situation, when a guy's having a hard time throwing strikes, the best thing to do is not swing. I know it's tough -- especially with the kind of stuff (Lowe) has. He throws almost 100 miles an hour every pitch. The biggest thing is to try to get to 3-2 or have him walk you. If you get to 3-2, you know it's going to be a battle because he's so good."
Mariners pitching coach Rick Adair then made a visit to the mound -- likely to remind Lowe that it helps to throw strikes every once in a while -- while Mark Kotsay was striding to the plate. Kotsay hasn't played regularly this season and thus has become a bit more of a free-swinger than he used to be. The bases were still loaded. A walk would mean another run.
"When the guy in front of you walks and the pitcher's having trouble with location and command, you want to get a good pitch on the plate and force his hand and try to get ahead in the count," Kotsay said. "Once you get ahead in the count, you know that he's not trying to locate -- he's just trying to throw strikes."
Kotsay got himself ahead in the count, fouling off one pitch but taking three others outside and off the plate. He then swung and missed at a 97-mile-an-hour fastball up and away. Full count.
The next pitch came in over the inside corner at 98 miles an hour. If Kotsay had stood and watched it, had been too patient, it would have been a strike -- and the inning would have been over.
But Kotsay got the bat around and got the barrel on the ball and rolled a ground ball between the first baseman and second baseman. The single plated Ortiz and Bay with the two runs that gave the Red Sox a comfortable cushion.
"You can't lose your aggressiveness to the zone," Kotsay said. "If you do that, he makes a great pitch on you and you're standing and looking at it. He throws 97 or 98. You keep your aggressiveness in the zone."
Being patient and being aggressive: It's really, really difficult to do both. But that's what the Red Sox did on Sunday, and that's why they avoided a sweep with their seventh-inning rally.
Sunday, July 5, 2009
Youkilis ekes onto All-Star team
All the hoopla will be about Tim Wakefield -- and rightfully so -- but one fascinating aspect about the All-Star voting was the way Kevin Youkilis landed on the team. Fan voting determined the eight starting position players, and the vote of players and managers selected eight more position players and eight pitchers.
(In case you're wondering, players and managers were allowed to vote for players on their own team -- and even, if they so desired, themselves. "I wouldn't want anyone looking over my shoulder to see me vote for myself," Jason Bay said, "so I didn't vote for myself.")
The game's managers then selected the final eight players, keeping in mind the requirement that every team had to have at least one representative.
The fans selected Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira over Youkilis by a margin of 300,000 votes. The players then selected Twins first baseman Justin Morneau. It wasn't until Maddon got to have his say that Youkilis landed on the team.
If Maddon hadn't felt particularly generous toward his American League rival, he certainly could have chosen his own guy in Carlos Pena and left Youkilis out in the cold. (That's what Philadelphia manager Charlie Manuel did in selecting Ryan Howard over Lance Berkman and Adam Dunn.)
Here's how the numbers break down:
Teixeira: .279/.385/.559 (.944 OPS); 20 HR, 61 RBI
Morneau: .320/.398/.592 (.991 OPS); 20 HR, 67 RBI
Youkilis: .306/.429/.579 (1.007 OPS); 14 HR, 57 RBI
Pena: .233/.365/.540 (.905 OPS); 23 HR, 55 RBI
Miguel Cabrera: .324/.387/.544 (.930 OPS); 16 HR, 47 RBI
***
Here's how the entire American League roster breaks down, sorted by fan vote, player vote and manager selection:
Catcher: Joe Mauer (fans), Victor Martinez (players)
First base: Mark Teixeira (fans), Justin Morneau (players), Kevin Youkilis (manager)
Second base: Dustin Pedroia (fans), Aaron Hill (players), Ben Zobrist (manager)
Shortstop: Derek Jeter (fans), Jason Bartlett (players)
Third base: Evan Longoria (fans), Michael Young (players)
Outfield: Jason Bay, Ichiro Suzuki, Josh Hamilton (fans); Carl Crawford, Curtis Granderson, Torii Hunter (players); Adam Jones (manager)
Starting pitchers: Josh Beckett, Zack Grienke, Roy Halladay, Edwin Jackson, Justin Verlander (players); Mark Buehrle, Felix Hernandez, Tim Wakefield (manager)
Relief pitchers: Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon, Mariano Rivera (players); Andrew Bailey, Brian Fuentes (manager).
(In case you're wondering, players and managers were allowed to vote for players on their own team -- and even, if they so desired, themselves. "I wouldn't want anyone looking over my shoulder to see me vote for myself," Jason Bay said, "so I didn't vote for myself.")
The game's managers then selected the final eight players, keeping in mind the requirement that every team had to have at least one representative.
The fans selected Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira over Youkilis by a margin of 300,000 votes. The players then selected Twins first baseman Justin Morneau. It wasn't until Maddon got to have his say that Youkilis landed on the team.
If Maddon hadn't felt particularly generous toward his American League rival, he certainly could have chosen his own guy in Carlos Pena and left Youkilis out in the cold. (That's what Philadelphia manager Charlie Manuel did in selecting Ryan Howard over Lance Berkman and Adam Dunn.)
Here's how the numbers break down:
Teixeira: .279/.385/.559 (.944 OPS); 20 HR, 61 RBI
Morneau: .320/.398/.592 (.991 OPS); 20 HR, 67 RBI
Youkilis: .306/.429/.579 (1.007 OPS); 14 HR, 57 RBI
Pena: .233/.365/.540 (.905 OPS); 23 HR, 55 RBI
Miguel Cabrera: .324/.387/.544 (.930 OPS); 16 HR, 47 RBI
***
Here's how the entire American League roster breaks down, sorted by fan vote, player vote and manager selection:
Catcher: Joe Mauer (fans), Victor Martinez (players)
First base: Mark Teixeira (fans), Justin Morneau (players), Kevin Youkilis (manager)
Second base: Dustin Pedroia (fans), Aaron Hill (players), Ben Zobrist (manager)
Shortstop: Derek Jeter (fans), Jason Bartlett (players)
Third base: Evan Longoria (fans), Michael Young (players)
Outfield: Jason Bay, Ichiro Suzuki, Josh Hamilton (fans); Carl Crawford, Curtis Granderson, Torii Hunter (players); Adam Jones (manager)
Starting pitchers: Josh Beckett, Zack Grienke, Roy Halladay, Edwin Jackson, Justin Verlander (players); Mark Buehrle, Felix Hernandez, Tim Wakefield (manager)
Relief pitchers: Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon, Mariano Rivera (players); Andrew Bailey, Brian Fuentes (manager).
Francona downplays lineup movement
Over the last three weeks or so, David Ortiz has hit fourth, fifth and sixth in the Red Sox lineup. Jason Bay began the season hitting sixth and has spent most of the last month hitting cleanup -- but he's hitting fifth for the second time in three days today against the Mariners.
Jason Varitek has hit sixth, seventh and eighth in the last three weeks. He'll hit eighth today. Jacoby Ellsbury has bounced all over the place -- from leadoff to second to seventh to eighth. He'll hit sixth today.
J.D. Drew has started a game hitting first, second, third, fifth and sixth for the Red Sox this season. He's started games at every single spot in the batting order in his career. He'll hit leadoff today against the Mariners -- as he has done in each of his last four games.
In many ways, where a player hits in a lineup is overrated. The leadoff hitter only is guaranteed to lead off an inning once per game -- if you take the first inning out of the equation, in fact, Dustin Pedroia has led off more innings (69) than Ellsbury (62).
It gives all of us something to talk about. But having a set lineup every day, a lineup that has everyone in exactly the spot either conventional wisdom or sabermetrics would dictate, isn't as big of a deal as we'd like to make it.
"If you can get some sort of consistency, I think the players appreciate that," Francona said. "I do think it makes it easier for them. I believe in that a lot."
He then paused.
"I believe there are times you just can't do that," he said. "Now, it's not like we have David hitting eighth or first or second. We're staying pretty close. We're actually staying pretty consistent through the order. We don't have a guy one day first, one day ninth. There's some consistency. ...
"I don't think you hit players where they're uncomfortable."
Consider the movement of Pedroia in the batting order.
Pedroia hit second in the batting order from April 6 to May 30 -- and he hit .328 with an OPS of .842 in that span. He then hit leadoff from May 31 to June 28 and hit .214 with a .565 OPS. Since he was returned to the second spot in the batting order, though, he's hitting .250 with a .667 OPS. He's not exactly setting the world on fire.
A year ago, Pedroia spent 17 games in the leadoff spot in the lineup and hit just .208. Clearly, that spot didn't agree with him -- except when you consider that he actually was 6 for 16 (.375) when leading off the first inning and 9 for 56 (.161) at all other points in the game. Pedroia hit leadoff in the team's first game of the season, in fact, and singled up the middle.
And when injuries gave Francona reason to put Pedroia in the cleanup spot a year ago, the second baseman went 12 for 18 with two home runs and seven RBI.
What's the difference? It's not clear even the players know.
In fact, the way Francona and Pedroia talked about the difference between hitting leadoff and hitting second made it sound like they'd come up with a company line to explain something that isn't really explainable.
"Pedey's trying too hard to do the right thing," Francona said. "We just want him to be himself. ... This kid's too conscientous. He wants to be the perfect leadoff hitter. He wants to get on base every time. I just want him to be himself."
"Trying to do so much, that's what I've been doing," Pedroia said. "I want to do so well and get a hit every time I'm up, and sometimes that backfires -- especially when you have a lot of energy."
Much was made of the dilemma Francona faced a few years ago with Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, trying to decide who to hit third and who to hit fourth. The big dilemma was protection in the lineup. Kevin Millar and Jason Varitek hit fifth more often than anyone else, and neither exactly were could be considered Tony Lazzeri to Ortiz and Ramirez's Ruth and Gehrig.
"I do remember calling them in," Francona said. "I called Manny and David both in at the same time, and I said, 'One guy hits third, and one guy hits fourth. You help me.' Both of them said, 'Third.' David understood it. I don't know if Manny did. I was like, 'We've got to figure this out.' They both were like, 'OK, third.' I was like, 'OK, now, from there, let's go a step further and get one guy fourth. That took a while. ...
"Manny was worried about, obviously, protection. I wanted to get David hitting third. I wanted to have Manny hitting fourth. But I wanted them to feel good about it. As a manager, you can do what you want and it can be the right thing on paper, but if your players don't buy into it, it may not be right. Manny had the ability to take walks regardless of who was hitting behind him. I didn't know if David would do that. We're trying to get the most out of both of them."
That's all a manager can do. Some guys feel more comfortable hitting in certain spots. Youkilis, for example, is not comfortable hitting leadoff even though his on-base percentage and ability to work counts makes him a perfect fit at the top of any lineup. Francona hit Youkilis at the top of the order throughout the 2006 season -- the first baseman had a .400 on-base percentage when leading off a game -- but has not done so since.
It's not a science. It's not just about the numbers.
It is, though, fascinating to talk about.
Jason Varitek has hit sixth, seventh and eighth in the last three weeks. He'll hit eighth today. Jacoby Ellsbury has bounced all over the place -- from leadoff to second to seventh to eighth. He'll hit sixth today.
J.D. Drew has started a game hitting first, second, third, fifth and sixth for the Red Sox this season. He's started games at every single spot in the batting order in his career. He'll hit leadoff today against the Mariners -- as he has done in each of his last four games.
In many ways, where a player hits in a lineup is overrated. The leadoff hitter only is guaranteed to lead off an inning once per game -- if you take the first inning out of the equation, in fact, Dustin Pedroia has led off more innings (69) than Ellsbury (62).
It gives all of us something to talk about. But having a set lineup every day, a lineup that has everyone in exactly the spot either conventional wisdom or sabermetrics would dictate, isn't as big of a deal as we'd like to make it.
"If you can get some sort of consistency, I think the players appreciate that," Francona said. "I do think it makes it easier for them. I believe in that a lot."
He then paused.
"I believe there are times you just can't do that," he said. "Now, it's not like we have David hitting eighth or first or second. We're staying pretty close. We're actually staying pretty consistent through the order. We don't have a guy one day first, one day ninth. There's some consistency. ...
"I don't think you hit players where they're uncomfortable."
Consider the movement of Pedroia in the batting order.
Pedroia hit second in the batting order from April 6 to May 30 -- and he hit .328 with an OPS of .842 in that span. He then hit leadoff from May 31 to June 28 and hit .214 with a .565 OPS. Since he was returned to the second spot in the batting order, though, he's hitting .250 with a .667 OPS. He's not exactly setting the world on fire.
A year ago, Pedroia spent 17 games in the leadoff spot in the lineup and hit just .208. Clearly, that spot didn't agree with him -- except when you consider that he actually was 6 for 16 (.375) when leading off the first inning and 9 for 56 (.161) at all other points in the game. Pedroia hit leadoff in the team's first game of the season, in fact, and singled up the middle.
And when injuries gave Francona reason to put Pedroia in the cleanup spot a year ago, the second baseman went 12 for 18 with two home runs and seven RBI.
What's the difference? It's not clear even the players know.
In fact, the way Francona and Pedroia talked about the difference between hitting leadoff and hitting second made it sound like they'd come up with a company line to explain something that isn't really explainable.
"Pedey's trying too hard to do the right thing," Francona said. "We just want him to be himself. ... This kid's too conscientous. He wants to be the perfect leadoff hitter. He wants to get on base every time. I just want him to be himself."
"Trying to do so much, that's what I've been doing," Pedroia said. "I want to do so well and get a hit every time I'm up, and sometimes that backfires -- especially when you have a lot of energy."
Much was made of the dilemma Francona faced a few years ago with Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, trying to decide who to hit third and who to hit fourth. The big dilemma was protection in the lineup. Kevin Millar and Jason Varitek hit fifth more often than anyone else, and neither exactly were could be considered Tony Lazzeri to Ortiz and Ramirez's Ruth and Gehrig.
"I do remember calling them in," Francona said. "I called Manny and David both in at the same time, and I said, 'One guy hits third, and one guy hits fourth. You help me.' Both of them said, 'Third.' David understood it. I don't know if Manny did. I was like, 'We've got to figure this out.' They both were like, 'OK, third.' I was like, 'OK, now, from there, let's go a step further and get one guy fourth. That took a while. ...
"Manny was worried about, obviously, protection. I wanted to get David hitting third. I wanted to have Manny hitting fourth. But I wanted them to feel good about it. As a manager, you can do what you want and it can be the right thing on paper, but if your players don't buy into it, it may not be right. Manny had the ability to take walks regardless of who was hitting behind him. I didn't know if David would do that. We're trying to get the most out of both of them."
That's all a manager can do. Some guys feel more comfortable hitting in certain spots. Youkilis, for example, is not comfortable hitting leadoff even though his on-base percentage and ability to work counts makes him a perfect fit at the top of any lineup. Francona hit Youkilis at the top of the order throughout the 2006 season -- the first baseman had a .400 on-base percentage when leading off a game -- but has not done so since.
It's not a science. It's not just about the numbers.
It is, though, fascinating to talk about.
Griffey a boyhood hero of Lester
When Jon Lester was 11 years old, he was watching on television at home in Tacoma, Wash., as Ken Griffey Jr. scored the most important run in the history of the Seattle Mariners. He attended only one game at the Kingdome as a kid -- "We couldn't afford to go up to Seattle, the 45-minute or hour drive to get up there with the parking and tickets and all that stuff," he said -- but was glued to the television to watch his favorite team beat the New York Yankees in extra innings to win the American League Division Series in 1995.
When Lester was 24 years old, he was pitching in the major leagues and still in awe of his hero. He even made arrangements to buy an old Griffey jersey -- his big-league salary made a luxury like that easier to afford -- so he could get it autographed when the Red Sox traveled to Cincinnati to play Griffey's Reds.
Later that year, after the Reds traded Griffey to the White Sox, Lester pitched against the future Hall of Famer in a game in Chicago. He retired him all three times he faced him.
"It was a little weird," he said. "It was a little weird meeting him and shaking his hand and introducing myself -- and then to see him in a Chicago White Sox uniform, it didn't really fit. It was one of those surreal deals, and I'm glad I got to face him."
Lester wasn't one of those 11-year-olds who watched game obsessively or devoured statistics in the newspaper. He didn't follow the Mariners that closely, even. But when a game was on TV, there were two things that could get his attention: Griffey's turn to hit and Randy Johnson's turn to pitch.
"I'd always watch when Randy pitched," Lester said. "If I was outside playing, I'd come watch Griffey hit. We were kind of spoiled, getting to see those two guys -- a lot of those guys -- growing up, seeing them play every day."
And he certainly remembers the memorable 1995 season that saved baseball in Seattle, the season in which Griffey came back from a broken wrist to spark the Mariners to one of the great August and September runs in baseball history. The Mariners trailed the California Angels by 13 games on Aug. 2 but came all the way back to force a one-game playoff the day after the regular season ended.
Lester was in school that day but still remembers it vividly.
"Luis Sojo hit a home run down the right field line underneath a bench," he said. "(I remember) little things about that."
(To be technical about it, it was a double and an error, but the gist is right: Sojo hit a broken-bat ground ball into the Angels' bullpen in right field with the bases loaded -- and pitcher Mark Langston threw wildly in an effort to get the ball to the plate, Sojo came all the way around and scored.)
And when Edgar Martinez laced a double down the left-field line in the 11th inning of Game 5 of the ALDS against the Yankees, Lester was at home cheering.
"I was as glued to the TV as anyone else in the Northwest that day," he said.
Lester likely won't pitch against Griffey this time around. Griffey went 0-for-5 on Friday as the Mariners' designated hitter, and you have to imagine he'll be out of the lineup on Sunday against perhaps the best lefthanded pitcher in the American League.
Too bad. Lester owns him.
When Lester was 24 years old, he was pitching in the major leagues and still in awe of his hero. He even made arrangements to buy an old Griffey jersey -- his big-league salary made a luxury like that easier to afford -- so he could get it autographed when the Red Sox traveled to Cincinnati to play Griffey's Reds.
Later that year, after the Reds traded Griffey to the White Sox, Lester pitched against the future Hall of Famer in a game in Chicago. He retired him all three times he faced him.
"It was a little weird," he said. "It was a little weird meeting him and shaking his hand and introducing myself -- and then to see him in a Chicago White Sox uniform, it didn't really fit. It was one of those surreal deals, and I'm glad I got to face him."
Lester wasn't one of those 11-year-olds who watched game obsessively or devoured statistics in the newspaper. He didn't follow the Mariners that closely, even. But when a game was on TV, there were two things that could get his attention: Griffey's turn to hit and Randy Johnson's turn to pitch.
"I'd always watch when Randy pitched," Lester said. "If I was outside playing, I'd come watch Griffey hit. We were kind of spoiled, getting to see those two guys -- a lot of those guys -- growing up, seeing them play every day."
And he certainly remembers the memorable 1995 season that saved baseball in Seattle, the season in which Griffey came back from a broken wrist to spark the Mariners to one of the great August and September runs in baseball history. The Mariners trailed the California Angels by 13 games on Aug. 2 but came all the way back to force a one-game playoff the day after the regular season ended.
Lester was in school that day but still remembers it vividly.
"Luis Sojo hit a home run down the right field line underneath a bench," he said. "(I remember) little things about that."
(To be technical about it, it was a double and an error, but the gist is right: Sojo hit a broken-bat ground ball into the Angels' bullpen in right field with the bases loaded -- and pitcher Mark Langston threw wildly in an effort to get the ball to the plate, Sojo came all the way around and scored.)
And when Edgar Martinez laced a double down the left-field line in the 11th inning of Game 5 of the ALDS against the Yankees, Lester was at home cheering.
"I was as glued to the TV as anyone else in the Northwest that day," he said.
Lester likely won't pitch against Griffey this time around. Griffey went 0-for-5 on Friday as the Mariners' designated hitter, and you have to imagine he'll be out of the lineup on Sunday against perhaps the best lefthanded pitcher in the American League.
Too bad. Lester owns him.
Friday, July 3, 2009
Kottaras hits first big-league home run
Rocco Baldelli on May 9. David Ortiz hit his first home run on May 20. Mark Kotsay hit his first home run on on June 7. Heck, even Josh Beckett hit his first home run on June 14.
But it wasn't until Friday night against the Mariners that George Kottaras got the monkey off his back, blasting a line drive over the visitors' bullpen in right field to become the final Red Sox regular to hit his first home run of the season -- and, incidentally, the first home run of his career.
"A couple of guys have given me a hard time about not hitting one for a while, but I don't go up there trying to hit a home run," he said. "If it happens, it's going to happen. Tonight, I didn't try to do it. It just happened."
(Who, specifically, has given him a hard time? "I can't say," he said with a smirk. "That's clubhouse talk.")
Kottaras had come awfully close to his first home run in the seventh inning, turning on a 94-mile-an-hour fastball from Felix Hernandez and driving it to the warning track before Ichiro Suzuki hauled it in. But when reliever Mark Lowe threw a 98-mile-an-hour fastball in almost the same spot in the 11th inning, Kottaras left no doubt.
"I didn't quite get all of that first one," he said. "The one I hit out, I hit pretty well. That felt pretty good."
Said catcher Jason Varitek, "That ball got out of there in a hurry."
The ball took one hop and landed in the hands of Manchester's Amanda Townsend -- who was promptly whisked away by Fenway Park security. She and her dad presented the ball to Kottaras outside the Red Sox locker room; Kottaras disappeared back into the locker room for a few minutes and re-emerged with an autographed bat.
"One of the security guys came over -- and I actually thought, 'I know I didn't hurt anybody!'" Townsend said. "I was nervous. He was like, 'You've got to come with me.' I was like, 'Am I in trouble?' He said, 'No. It was just his first home run, and he'd like the ball.'"
The ball went right into Kottaras' locker and likely will find its way back to Ontario in the near future.
"I'm sure my mom will put it away somewhere and keep it," he said. "She takes care of all that stuff."
Kottaras hadn't let himself get too worked up over his inability to hit a home run in his relatively brief major-league career. It's not easy to get a feel for the plate when you're only playing once or twice a week.
Still, though, it was a little bit odd to see a guy who had hit 22 home runs in fewer than 400 at-bats in Triple-A last season go this long without going deep.
"He matches up good against any fastball pitcher -- but sometimes he gets tough draws," shortstop Nick Green said. "He got a tough draw with Felix tonight."
Skeptical? Among the pitchers Kottaras had faced through the first three months: Matt Garza, Jair Jurrjens, Cliff Lee, Javier Vazquez and Jered Weaver. On top of that, the lefthanded hitter hit a stretch between mid-April and mid-May in which he'd had almost as many plate appearances against lefthanded pitchers (13) as against righties (21).
"He had a rough draw the first month or two," said left fielder Jason Bay about his fellow Canadian. (Bay became a U.S. citizen on Thursday but did not renounce his Canadian citizenship.) "It seemed like every time Wake pitched, we were facing a lefty. It was unbelievable the way it worked out. He's a guy that only gets out there once, twice a week, and now you're getting a lefty. He scuffled at the beginning, but his last four or five starts, he's looked really good and swung the bat well."
In his last six starts, in fact, Kottaras is hitting .364 with four doubles -- and that elusive home run.
"He's a strong kid, and when he gets it in that area where he can get the head (of the bat) to it, he can hit it a long way," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said.
But it wasn't until Friday night against the Mariners that George Kottaras got the monkey off his back, blasting a line drive over the visitors' bullpen in right field to become the final Red Sox regular to hit his first home run of the season -- and, incidentally, the first home run of his career.
"A couple of guys have given me a hard time about not hitting one for a while, but I don't go up there trying to hit a home run," he said. "If it happens, it's going to happen. Tonight, I didn't try to do it. It just happened."
(Who, specifically, has given him a hard time? "I can't say," he said with a smirk. "That's clubhouse talk.")
Kottaras had come awfully close to his first home run in the seventh inning, turning on a 94-mile-an-hour fastball from Felix Hernandez and driving it to the warning track before Ichiro Suzuki hauled it in. But when reliever Mark Lowe threw a 98-mile-an-hour fastball in almost the same spot in the 11th inning, Kottaras left no doubt.
"I didn't quite get all of that first one," he said. "The one I hit out, I hit pretty well. That felt pretty good."
Said catcher Jason Varitek, "That ball got out of there in a hurry."
The ball took one hop and landed in the hands of Manchester's Amanda Townsend -- who was promptly whisked away by Fenway Park security. She and her dad presented the ball to Kottaras outside the Red Sox locker room; Kottaras disappeared back into the locker room for a few minutes and re-emerged with an autographed bat.
"One of the security guys came over -- and I actually thought, 'I know I didn't hurt anybody!'" Townsend said. "I was nervous. He was like, 'You've got to come with me.' I was like, 'Am I in trouble?' He said, 'No. It was just his first home run, and he'd like the ball.'"
The ball went right into Kottaras' locker and likely will find its way back to Ontario in the near future.
"I'm sure my mom will put it away somewhere and keep it," he said. "She takes care of all that stuff."
Kottaras hadn't let himself get too worked up over his inability to hit a home run in his relatively brief major-league career. It's not easy to get a feel for the plate when you're only playing once or twice a week.
Still, though, it was a little bit odd to see a guy who had hit 22 home runs in fewer than 400 at-bats in Triple-A last season go this long without going deep.
"He matches up good against any fastball pitcher -- but sometimes he gets tough draws," shortstop Nick Green said. "He got a tough draw with Felix tonight."
Skeptical? Among the pitchers Kottaras had faced through the first three months: Matt Garza, Jair Jurrjens, Cliff Lee, Javier Vazquez and Jered Weaver. On top of that, the lefthanded hitter hit a stretch between mid-April and mid-May in which he'd had almost as many plate appearances against lefthanded pitchers (13) as against righties (21).
"He had a rough draw the first month or two," said left fielder Jason Bay about his fellow Canadian. (Bay became a U.S. citizen on Thursday but did not renounce his Canadian citizenship.) "It seemed like every time Wake pitched, we were facing a lefty. It was unbelievable the way it worked out. He's a guy that only gets out there once, twice a week, and now you're getting a lefty. He scuffled at the beginning, but his last four or five starts, he's looked really good and swung the bat well."
In his last six starts, in fact, Kottaras is hitting .364 with four doubles -- and that elusive home run.
"He's a strong kid, and when he gets it in that area where he can get the head (of the bat) to it, he can hit it a long way," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said.
Let's talk trade: Victor Martinez
Numerous reports have the Red Sox again taking an interest in Cleveland catcher/first baseman Victor Martinez -- and the Indians taking an interest, as anyone would, in the Red Sox's glut of young pitching.
(SI's Jon Heyman cites no sources in raising the possibility of a trade, but this is the same writer who declared a month ago that the Indians wouldn't trade Martinez because CC Sabathia -- neither a general manager or a member of the Cleveland organization -- told him so.)
It's certainly an interesting possibility. Martinez is OPS'ing .916 this season and likely will be named to the American League All-Star team on Sunday. He's one of the best hitters in the American League and would look great in the middle of the Red Sox lineup.
Among questions that would need to be answered:
How well would he fit in the lineup?
To put it simply: He'd be a terrific fit. The Red Sox have put together a batting order that, with a couple of exceptions, works counts and gets on base and generally drives opposing pitchers crazy. Here's how a few of Martinez's numbers stack up with some of the Red Sox's key hitters (sorted by overall American League rank):
On-base percentage
2. Kevin Youkilis, .439
13. Victor Martinez, .393
17. J.D. Drew, .386
27. Dustin Pedroia, .372
28. Jason Bay, .370
40. Jacoby Ellsbury, .352
57. Jason Varitek, .336
League average: .335
Pitches per plate appearance
1. Youkilis, 4.51
11. Drew, 4.15
22. David Ortiz, 4.03
25. Bay. 4.02
36. Martinez, 3.95
47. Varitek, 3.88
50. Pedroia, 3.86
League average: 3.82
Percentage of pitches swung at
8. Drew, 37 percent
9. Youkilis, 37 percent
11. Pedroia, 38 percent
12. Martinez, 38 percent
16. Bay, 39 percent
25. Mike Lowell, 42 percent
League average: 45 percent
The Red Sox grind at-bats and get on base in large part because they're so patient at the plate. Martinez excels at doing exactly what the Red Sox want their hitters to do.
Where would Martinez play?
That's the question. Right now, with Mike Lowell on the disabled list and Kevin Youkilis manning third base, Martinez could play full-time at first and catch once or twice a week to give Jason Varitek a break while allowing George Kottaras to focus exclusively on catching Tim Wakefield.
But when Lowell returns, the Red Sox suddenly would have too many talented hitters and not enough positions on the field. When the Red Sox were rumored to be flirting with Martinez in late May and early June, they were doing so because they were getting next to no production from their designated hitter. David Ortiz, though, hit .320 with seven home runs in June and has quieted those who called for his indefinite benching.
Lowell, on the other hand, is going to expect to play regularly when he gets back. He needs someone to give him an occasional break, sure, but he's still the Red Sox third baseman. (He's under contract through 2010, and the Red Sox already had to mend fences with him after their courtship of Mark Teixeira this winter.) With Youkilis at first base and Jason Varitek behind the plate, there's nowhere to play Martinez on an everyday basis.
Just to fit him on the roster, the Red Sox likely would have to release Mark Kotsay, severely depleting their depth in the outfield. (Jeff Bailey will be shipped back to Triple-A Pawtucket once Lowell is activated.) The only other option would be to try to get Kottaras through waivers and send him to Triple-A Pawtucket -- but not only do you lose Tim Wakefield's personal catcher, but you risk losing Kottaras entirely.
What should the Red Sox be willing to give up for him?
Assuming the Red Sox decide they have a place to play Martinez -- and that likely only would happen if Lowell was going to be sidelined for most of the second half -- they still have to pay a steep price for him.
The Indians, of course, are going to start with Clay Buchholz -- and they'd be right to do so. Martinez compares favorably with Youkilis as a hitter and in his versatility in the field, and the Red Sox would demand a huge ransom if they ever decided they needed to trade Youkilis.
Buchholz remains the top prospect in the organization, a potential top-of-the-rotation starter with the same sort of upside as Jon Lester -- as well as Atlanta's Tommy Hanson, Los Angeles' Clayton Kershaw and Detroit's Rick Porcello.
Even better, he's under team control and cost-controlled for his first six years in the major leagues. To put that in perspective: The Red Sox are paying Brad Penny $5 million plus incentives this season. The Red Sox wouldn't have to pay Buchholz that much during his first three seasons combined. There's a reason young players have become so coveted.
Martinez will turn 31 at the end of this season and will be almost 32 when his contract expires -- assuming his $7 million option for 2010 is picked up. If the Red Sox were to make a deal for him, they'd almost certainly have to sign him to an extension to make him worth the price. Any extension, though, would include seasons in which he was 33, 34 and maybe even 35 years old -- ages at which player after player after player has shown steep decline.
The Indians can't trade Martinez without getting Buchholz back. The Red Sox can't trade Buchholz, though, without getting someone who can contribute in a cost-efficient way for more than a year and a half.
(SI's Jon Heyman cites no sources in raising the possibility of a trade, but this is the same writer who declared a month ago that the Indians wouldn't trade Martinez because CC Sabathia -- neither a general manager or a member of the Cleveland organization -- told him so.)
It's certainly an interesting possibility. Martinez is OPS'ing .916 this season and likely will be named to the American League All-Star team on Sunday. He's one of the best hitters in the American League and would look great in the middle of the Red Sox lineup.
Among questions that would need to be answered:
How well would he fit in the lineup?
To put it simply: He'd be a terrific fit. The Red Sox have put together a batting order that, with a couple of exceptions, works counts and gets on base and generally drives opposing pitchers crazy. Here's how a few of Martinez's numbers stack up with some of the Red Sox's key hitters (sorted by overall American League rank):
On-base percentage
2. Kevin Youkilis, .439
13. Victor Martinez, .393
17. J.D. Drew, .386
27. Dustin Pedroia, .372
28. Jason Bay, .370
40. Jacoby Ellsbury, .352
57. Jason Varitek, .336
League average: .335
Pitches per plate appearance
1. Youkilis, 4.51
11. Drew, 4.15
22. David Ortiz, 4.03
25. Bay. 4.02
36. Martinez, 3.95
47. Varitek, 3.88
50. Pedroia, 3.86
League average: 3.82
Percentage of pitches swung at
8. Drew, 37 percent
9. Youkilis, 37 percent
11. Pedroia, 38 percent
12. Martinez, 38 percent
16. Bay, 39 percent
25. Mike Lowell, 42 percent
League average: 45 percent
The Red Sox grind at-bats and get on base in large part because they're so patient at the plate. Martinez excels at doing exactly what the Red Sox want their hitters to do.
Where would Martinez play?
That's the question. Right now, with Mike Lowell on the disabled list and Kevin Youkilis manning third base, Martinez could play full-time at first and catch once or twice a week to give Jason Varitek a break while allowing George Kottaras to focus exclusively on catching Tim Wakefield.
But when Lowell returns, the Red Sox suddenly would have too many talented hitters and not enough positions on the field. When the Red Sox were rumored to be flirting with Martinez in late May and early June, they were doing so because they were getting next to no production from their designated hitter. David Ortiz, though, hit .320 with seven home runs in June and has quieted those who called for his indefinite benching.
Lowell, on the other hand, is going to expect to play regularly when he gets back. He needs someone to give him an occasional break, sure, but he's still the Red Sox third baseman. (He's under contract through 2010, and the Red Sox already had to mend fences with him after their courtship of Mark Teixeira this winter.) With Youkilis at first base and Jason Varitek behind the plate, there's nowhere to play Martinez on an everyday basis.
Just to fit him on the roster, the Red Sox likely would have to release Mark Kotsay, severely depleting their depth in the outfield. (Jeff Bailey will be shipped back to Triple-A Pawtucket once Lowell is activated.) The only other option would be to try to get Kottaras through waivers and send him to Triple-A Pawtucket -- but not only do you lose Tim Wakefield's personal catcher, but you risk losing Kottaras entirely.
What should the Red Sox be willing to give up for him?
Assuming the Red Sox decide they have a place to play Martinez -- and that likely only would happen if Lowell was going to be sidelined for most of the second half -- they still have to pay a steep price for him.
The Indians, of course, are going to start with Clay Buchholz -- and they'd be right to do so. Martinez compares favorably with Youkilis as a hitter and in his versatility in the field, and the Red Sox would demand a huge ransom if they ever decided they needed to trade Youkilis.
Buchholz remains the top prospect in the organization, a potential top-of-the-rotation starter with the same sort of upside as Jon Lester -- as well as Atlanta's Tommy Hanson, Los Angeles' Clayton Kershaw and Detroit's Rick Porcello.
Even better, he's under team control and cost-controlled for his first six years in the major leagues. To put that in perspective: The Red Sox are paying Brad Penny $5 million plus incentives this season. The Red Sox wouldn't have to pay Buchholz that much during his first three seasons combined. There's a reason young players have become so coveted.
Martinez will turn 31 at the end of this season and will be almost 32 when his contract expires -- assuming his $7 million option for 2010 is picked up. If the Red Sox were to make a deal for him, they'd almost certainly have to sign him to an extension to make him worth the price. Any extension, though, would include seasons in which he was 33, 34 and maybe even 35 years old -- ages at which player after player after player has shown steep decline.
The Indians can't trade Martinez without getting Buchholz back. The Red Sox can't trade Buchholz, though, without getting someone who can contribute in a cost-efficient way for more than a year and a half.
No timetable for Dice-K
Red Sox manager Terry Francona said Friday that it's far too early to set any goals or expectations for the return of Daisuke Matsuzaka to the Red Sox rotation.
"We really don't have a timetable," he said. "This time, we're going to make sure he's ready to pitch. We have something in our head that we maybe think is realistic, but it's a long way off -- and it's entirely going to be based on how he's doing."
Matsuzaka was expected to play catch from 60 feet on flat ground today, the first time he'd thrown since the Red Sox shut him down indefinitely on June 21. He's been working on his strength but doing nothing baseball-related over the last two weeks.
He'll spend the weekend in Boston to avoid traveling on the holiday weekend and fly to Fort Myers, Fla., to start fresh with a shoulder-strengthening program. In a lot of ways, it'll be like the start of spring training all over again.
"He needed a little bit of a break mentally, too," Francona said. "That was, more than anything, the idea behind giving him some time off. ... Sometimes you just get fried. He worked hard when we were gone without a baseball, and now we'll get a ball back in his hands just to play catch. As he gets stronger, that will certainly increase."
"We really don't have a timetable," he said. "This time, we're going to make sure he's ready to pitch. We have something in our head that we maybe think is realistic, but it's a long way off -- and it's entirely going to be based on how he's doing."
Matsuzaka was expected to play catch from 60 feet on flat ground today, the first time he'd thrown since the Red Sox shut him down indefinitely on June 21. He's been working on his strength but doing nothing baseball-related over the last two weeks.
He'll spend the weekend in Boston to avoid traveling on the holiday weekend and fly to Fort Myers, Fla., to start fresh with a shoulder-strengthening program. In a lot of ways, it'll be like the start of spring training all over again.
"He needed a little bit of a break mentally, too," Francona said. "That was, more than anything, the idea behind giving him some time off. ... Sometimes you just get fried. He worked hard when we were gone without a baseball, and now we'll get a ball back in his hands just to play catch. As he gets stronger, that will certainly increase."
Let's talk trade: Julio Lugo
As contending teams come to grips with what they have and what they need, a market could evolve for Red Sox shortstop Julio Lugo. What seemed unimaginable even a couple of weeks ago soon could become reality: The Red Sox could have a chance to trade Lugo to a contender in the National League like the Braves or the Reds and either get back a half-decent prospect or save a little bit of money on the $36 million Lugo still is owed.
How might this happen? Here's one completely hypothetical scenario: Atlanta Braves manager Bobby Cox has lost patience with middle infielders Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson. Escobar has clashed with Cox both over his effort and his attitude in the field, and Johnson has been benched in favor of the more productive Martin Prado.
The Braves need someone who can swing the bat. Prado won Tuesday's game almost all by himself, homering in the fifth inning and driving home the game-winning run in the 10th. But other than Prado and the ever-reliable Chipper Jones, no one has done much with the bat for the Braves all season. One of the best pitching staffs in the major leagues -- Derek Lowe's 4.44 ERA is the worst on the staff -- risks missing the playoffs because the lineup can't score any runs.
Lugo, conveniently, can hit. No one has ever questioned that. He's hitting .476 (10 for 21) since he was benched on June 5 and drove in the go-ahead run in the 11th inning on Wednesday.
"He's been good offensively," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said. "That hasn't been why he hasn't played."
He hasn't played, of course, because he has next to no range on the field. That could cause problems for a ground-ball pitcher like Lowe, but you sometimes have to sacrifice something in one area to gain something somewhere else. Escobar has not exactly been Omar Vizquel at shortstop this season, anyway.
On top of that, the Braves' other four starters all have induced more fly balls than ground balls, so poor defense at shortstop might not hurt them as much as it otherwise might. Javier Vazquez has the highest strikeout rate in the American League. He probably could win games without anyone playing shortstop at all.
In this hypothetical scenario, Theo Epstein picks up the phone and dial Braves general manager Frank Wren.
"Frankie," Epstein says in an effort to demonstrate that the two go way back and are pretty much best friends. "How are the three kids and wife?"
Once they get through the particulars -- the wife is fine, and two of the kids are doing great but the third is at the dentist with a toothache -- they get down to business. Epstein starts with a pretty simple offer: He offers Lugo for Escobar, saying right up front that he's willing to pay the $4.5 million or so Lugo is owed for the rest of the season.
"I know you can't take on much money," Epstein says. "We'll take care of that. John Henry won't even notice that $4.5 million, anyway. The guy has so much money he tried to fly to Baltimore to watch us play but accidentally ended up in South Africa."
Let's say Wren declines the offer. Epstein then sweetens the pot, proposing that the Red Sox pick up half of Lugo's 2010 salary, too. That's $9 million in total cost savings.
"You can pay the other half of next year's salary with the money you save when you nontender Jeff Francouer this winter," Epstein suggests helpfully.
The beauty of this scenario for the Red Sox is the fact that they already seem prepared to eat every penny of the $13 or $14 million still due Lugo. If Epstein and Francona intended to keep him on the roster, he'd be playing more often than once a week. Once Jed Lowrie returns, if no trade develops, it seems clear that Lugo will be jettisoned like a rocket booster in the stratosphere.
Cutting Lugo means eating his entire salary. If Epstein can get something back from him or save some money -- or both -- he'll have done his job.
You might wonder why the Red Sox would ask for Escobar when they already have Lowrie coming off the disabled list. The answer: It might seem as though Lowrie has played 10 seasons in the major leagues given the way his wrist rehab has been covered, but he still has fewer than 300 big-league plate appearances. He hasn't yet had a chance to prove he's a top-tier major-league shortstop. In a lot of ways, he's still a prospect -- and prospects, by definition, come with question marks.
Escobar, on the other hand, has a career .300 batting average and .367 on-base percentage in more than 1,200 big-league plate appearances. You know what he is and what he can do.
It might turn out that the Red Sox are a better team this season with Escobar as their starting shortstop and Lowrie as a super-utility guy who starts two or three games a week at third base. Baseball is all about collecting talent, and Escobar certainly has talent.
Wren shoots it down.
"No, thanks -- it's Theo, right?" Wren says, regaining the upper hand in the negotiation through the brilliant use of condescension.
Epstein then offers to pick up the entire remainder of Lugo's salary. Wren still declines. He's not trading Escobar no matter how much Cox begs him to do so. He's read the newspapers. He knows Escobar still might come around given the proper coaching and mentoring. He also knows he already traded away Elvis Andrus and has no other shortstop in the pipeline in the event the 33-year-old Lugo gets hurt or fails to produce.
But Lugo still has some value to the Braves. Escobar has hit .293 and OPS'ed .781 this season, but the Braves still rank 24th in the major leagues in runs per game (4.21) and 23rd in OPS (.720) and could use another hitter no matter where he plays in the field. If the Braves could find enough space on the roster, Escobar and Lugo could form something of a platoon -- the former is hitting .320 against righties this season while the latter is hitting .400 against lefties.
Wren comes back with another offer: Lugo and $9 million -- enough to pay two-thirds of what he's still owed -- for a B-level pitching prospect of Epstein's choice.
Epstein jumps on the trade. He didn't get Escobar -- but he didn't need Escobar. He has Lowrie. He manages, however, to get a prospect and save between $4 and $5 million and clear a roster spot for Lowrie as he returns from the disabled list.
And that's all he wanted to do in the first place. Anything else is gravy.
How might this happen? Here's one completely hypothetical scenario: Atlanta Braves manager Bobby Cox has lost patience with middle infielders Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson. Escobar has clashed with Cox both over his effort and his attitude in the field, and Johnson has been benched in favor of the more productive Martin Prado.
The Braves need someone who can swing the bat. Prado won Tuesday's game almost all by himself, homering in the fifth inning and driving home the game-winning run in the 10th. But other than Prado and the ever-reliable Chipper Jones, no one has done much with the bat for the Braves all season. One of the best pitching staffs in the major leagues -- Derek Lowe's 4.44 ERA is the worst on the staff -- risks missing the playoffs because the lineup can't score any runs.
Lugo, conveniently, can hit. No one has ever questioned that. He's hitting .476 (10 for 21) since he was benched on June 5 and drove in the go-ahead run in the 11th inning on Wednesday.
"He's been good offensively," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said. "That hasn't been why he hasn't played."
He hasn't played, of course, because he has next to no range on the field. That could cause problems for a ground-ball pitcher like Lowe, but you sometimes have to sacrifice something in one area to gain something somewhere else. Escobar has not exactly been Omar Vizquel at shortstop this season, anyway.
On top of that, the Braves' other four starters all have induced more fly balls than ground balls, so poor defense at shortstop might not hurt them as much as it otherwise might. Javier Vazquez has the highest strikeout rate in the American League. He probably could win games without anyone playing shortstop at all.
In this hypothetical scenario, Theo Epstein picks up the phone and dial Braves general manager Frank Wren.
"Frankie," Epstein says in an effort to demonstrate that the two go way back and are pretty much best friends. "How are the three kids and wife?"
Once they get through the particulars -- the wife is fine, and two of the kids are doing great but the third is at the dentist with a toothache -- they get down to business. Epstein starts with a pretty simple offer: He offers Lugo for Escobar, saying right up front that he's willing to pay the $4.5 million or so Lugo is owed for the rest of the season.
"I know you can't take on much money," Epstein says. "We'll take care of that. John Henry won't even notice that $4.5 million, anyway. The guy has so much money he tried to fly to Baltimore to watch us play but accidentally ended up in South Africa."
Let's say Wren declines the offer. Epstein then sweetens the pot, proposing that the Red Sox pick up half of Lugo's 2010 salary, too. That's $9 million in total cost savings.
"You can pay the other half of next year's salary with the money you save when you nontender Jeff Francouer this winter," Epstein suggests helpfully.
The beauty of this scenario for the Red Sox is the fact that they already seem prepared to eat every penny of the $13 or $14 million still due Lugo. If Epstein and Francona intended to keep him on the roster, he'd be playing more often than once a week. Once Jed Lowrie returns, if no trade develops, it seems clear that Lugo will be jettisoned like a rocket booster in the stratosphere.
Cutting Lugo means eating his entire salary. If Epstein can get something back from him or save some money -- or both -- he'll have done his job.
You might wonder why the Red Sox would ask for Escobar when they already have Lowrie coming off the disabled list. The answer: It might seem as though Lowrie has played 10 seasons in the major leagues given the way his wrist rehab has been covered, but he still has fewer than 300 big-league plate appearances. He hasn't yet had a chance to prove he's a top-tier major-league shortstop. In a lot of ways, he's still a prospect -- and prospects, by definition, come with question marks.
Escobar, on the other hand, has a career .300 batting average and .367 on-base percentage in more than 1,200 big-league plate appearances. You know what he is and what he can do.
It might turn out that the Red Sox are a better team this season with Escobar as their starting shortstop and Lowrie as a super-utility guy who starts two or three games a week at third base. Baseball is all about collecting talent, and Escobar certainly has talent.
Wren shoots it down.
"No, thanks -- it's Theo, right?" Wren says, regaining the upper hand in the negotiation through the brilliant use of condescension.
Epstein then offers to pick up the entire remainder of Lugo's salary. Wren still declines. He's not trading Escobar no matter how much Cox begs him to do so. He's read the newspapers. He knows Escobar still might come around given the proper coaching and mentoring. He also knows he already traded away Elvis Andrus and has no other shortstop in the pipeline in the event the 33-year-old Lugo gets hurt or fails to produce.
But Lugo still has some value to the Braves. Escobar has hit .293 and OPS'ed .781 this season, but the Braves still rank 24th in the major leagues in runs per game (4.21) and 23rd in OPS (.720) and could use another hitter no matter where he plays in the field. If the Braves could find enough space on the roster, Escobar and Lugo could form something of a platoon -- the former is hitting .320 against righties this season while the latter is hitting .400 against lefties.
Wren comes back with another offer: Lugo and $9 million -- enough to pay two-thirds of what he's still owed -- for a B-level pitching prospect of Epstein's choice.
Epstein jumps on the trade. He didn't get Escobar -- but he didn't need Escobar. He has Lowrie. He manages, however, to get a prospect and save between $4 and $5 million and clear a roster spot for Lowrie as he returns from the disabled list.
And that's all he wanted to do in the first place. Anything else is gravy.
Thursday, July 2, 2009
Bailey, Kotsay could form effective platoon
There's always, always, always a danger with small sample sizes. But the way Jeff Bailey hit over the last two days in Baltimore makes you wonder if he's capable of playing a more-than-capable first base in the absence of Mike Lowell -- particularly if it's as part of a platoon with Mark Kotsay.
Bailey was hitting just .259 at Triple-A Pawtucket but had an on-base percentage of .373. He was -- is -- the only PawSox player to have drawn more than 20 walks while striking out fewer than 40 times. His ability to stay patient and work the count manifested itself in the ninth inning on Wednesday when he worked a five-pitch walk from Orioles closer George Sherrill that moved the runners along; he scored the game-tying run on Rocco Baldelli's seeing-eye single.
But Bailey has some stark left-right splits both in the major leagues and the minor leagues. With the PawSox this season, he had an on-base percentage of .358 against righties and .419 against lefties. With the Red Sox in his career, he has an on-base percentage of .309 against righties and .400 against lefties. The split is even more glaring in a small sample size this season: .262 against righties and .538 against lefties.
Veteran Mark Kotsay, on the other hand, has a better career on-base percentage against righties (.340) than against lefties (.326). So far this season, he's only got eight at-bats agianst lefties -- he's 1-for-8 with no walks -- but has a .389 on-base percentage against righties.
The Red Sox don't need the duo to hit 20 home runs or be capable of hitting fourth or fifth in the lineup. But if Lowell is able to return at some point this season -- be it immediately after the All-Star break or shortly thereafter -- it seems to make no sense to trade a pitching prospect for Nick Johnson or Adam LaRoche when a platoon of Bailey and Kotsay might do the job just fine.
Bailey was hitting just .259 at Triple-A Pawtucket but had an on-base percentage of .373. He was -- is -- the only PawSox player to have drawn more than 20 walks while striking out fewer than 40 times. His ability to stay patient and work the count manifested itself in the ninth inning on Wednesday when he worked a five-pitch walk from Orioles closer George Sherrill that moved the runners along; he scored the game-tying run on Rocco Baldelli's seeing-eye single.
But Bailey has some stark left-right splits both in the major leagues and the minor leagues. With the PawSox this season, he had an on-base percentage of .358 against righties and .419 against lefties. With the Red Sox in his career, he has an on-base percentage of .309 against righties and .400 against lefties. The split is even more glaring in a small sample size this season: .262 against righties and .538 against lefties.
Veteran Mark Kotsay, on the other hand, has a better career on-base percentage against righties (.340) than against lefties (.326). So far this season, he's only got eight at-bats agianst lefties -- he's 1-for-8 with no walks -- but has a .389 on-base percentage against righties.
The Red Sox don't need the duo to hit 20 home runs or be capable of hitting fourth or fifth in the lineup. But if Lowell is able to return at some point this season -- be it immediately after the All-Star break or shortly thereafter -- it seems to make no sense to trade a pitching prospect for Nick Johnson or Adam LaRoche when a platoon of Bailey and Kotsay might do the job just fine.
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
Tough at-bats spark Red Sox rally
"If you're going to walk people," Baltimore manager Dave Trembley told reporters after Wednesday's game, "it's not the time to do it in the ninth inning."
That's true. But if you're going to draw walks, the ninth inning is precisely the time to do it. Red Sox hitters drew three walks in Wednesday's ninth inning, and all three proved critical as the Orioles got a taste of their own come-from-behind medicine.
"Good hitters get on base, grind out at-bats, and you have a lot better chance going forward and scoring runs and having innings like we did late in the game here," said outfielder Rocco Baldelli, whose pinch-hit single tied the game with two outs in the ninth inning. "At no point have I ever seen us in a game where we've just folded up and gone home. We've won some good games. I don't know if any of them were more spectacular in the late innings than this one.
"It's something you don't necessarily expect to happen, but we expect ourselves to try to make it happen."
It started with Dustin Pedroia, the scrappy second baseman whose 10-pitch at-bat against CC Sabathia turned the tide in a come-from-behind win against the Yankees three weeks ago. Pedroia drew a five-pitch walk from reliever Jim Johnson to get himself on base in front of Kevin Youkilis -- and Youkilis hit a fastball into the right-field bleachers to cut the deficit to two runs.
Orioles closer George Sherrill, summoned in a hurry, then fanned Jason Bay and David Ortiz before surrendering a soft single to center field to Jacoby Ellsbury.
First baseman Jeff Bailey reached base in four of his five plate appearances on Tuesday, and he came to the plate for the first time on Wednesday representing both the tying run and the potential third out. It was his chance to be a hero or a goat. He didn't take the bat off his shoulder. Sherrill threw a curveball for a strike on the first pitch but missed the strike zone with each of his next four pitches. He didn't miss by all that much -- Bailey looked back twice at the home-plate umpire on his way to first base -- but he missed just the same.
"I thought Bailey's at-bat was as tough an at-bat, considering the circumstances," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said. "You have a righty that's running it in on his hands. He knows he's got to move the runner, and he found a way to do it."
Catcher Jason Varitek then saw a 3-0 count turn into a 3-2 count and almost took a hack at a hellacious curveball that looked good for a while only to dive down toward his ankles. He checked his swing. Ball four. Bases loaded.
"(Sherrill) made a bastard pitch on 'Tek," Francona said.
Baldelli then came to the plate, pinch-hitting for Nick Green. He took two curveballs -- one a strike, one a ball -- and then went after a fastball up and in that he somehow punched into center field for a two-run single that tied the game.
"It wasn't like he hit a pea," Francona said, "but he fought it off and stayed in the middle of the field. It looked beautiful."
The Red Sox mustered nothing against the Baltimore bullpen on Tuesday and nothing against rookie starter Brad Bergesen through eight innings on Wednesday. In the ninth inning, though, the plate approach that has so permeated the Red Sox clubhouse paid off in a huge way.
"This is not a team that's going to roll over," said shortstop Julio Lugo, who chopped the go-ahead single through a drawn-in infield in the 11th inning. "We'll never roll over. They've got to get 27 outs, and we proved that. We've got a group, guys that work hard, and you've got to get 27 outs on this team."
That's true. But if you're going to draw walks, the ninth inning is precisely the time to do it. Red Sox hitters drew three walks in Wednesday's ninth inning, and all three proved critical as the Orioles got a taste of their own come-from-behind medicine.
"Good hitters get on base, grind out at-bats, and you have a lot better chance going forward and scoring runs and having innings like we did late in the game here," said outfielder Rocco Baldelli, whose pinch-hit single tied the game with two outs in the ninth inning. "At no point have I ever seen us in a game where we've just folded up and gone home. We've won some good games. I don't know if any of them were more spectacular in the late innings than this one.
"It's something you don't necessarily expect to happen, but we expect ourselves to try to make it happen."
It started with Dustin Pedroia, the scrappy second baseman whose 10-pitch at-bat against CC Sabathia turned the tide in a come-from-behind win against the Yankees three weeks ago. Pedroia drew a five-pitch walk from reliever Jim Johnson to get himself on base in front of Kevin Youkilis -- and Youkilis hit a fastball into the right-field bleachers to cut the deficit to two runs.
Orioles closer George Sherrill, summoned in a hurry, then fanned Jason Bay and David Ortiz before surrendering a soft single to center field to Jacoby Ellsbury.
First baseman Jeff Bailey reached base in four of his five plate appearances on Tuesday, and he came to the plate for the first time on Wednesday representing both the tying run and the potential third out. It was his chance to be a hero or a goat. He didn't take the bat off his shoulder. Sherrill threw a curveball for a strike on the first pitch but missed the strike zone with each of his next four pitches. He didn't miss by all that much -- Bailey looked back twice at the home-plate umpire on his way to first base -- but he missed just the same.
"I thought Bailey's at-bat was as tough an at-bat, considering the circumstances," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said. "You have a righty that's running it in on his hands. He knows he's got to move the runner, and he found a way to do it."
Catcher Jason Varitek then saw a 3-0 count turn into a 3-2 count and almost took a hack at a hellacious curveball that looked good for a while only to dive down toward his ankles. He checked his swing. Ball four. Bases loaded.
"(Sherrill) made a bastard pitch on 'Tek," Francona said.
Baldelli then came to the plate, pinch-hitting for Nick Green. He took two curveballs -- one a strike, one a ball -- and then went after a fastball up and in that he somehow punched into center field for a two-run single that tied the game.
"It wasn't like he hit a pea," Francona said, "but he fought it off and stayed in the middle of the field. It looked beautiful."
The Red Sox mustered nothing against the Baltimore bullpen on Tuesday and nothing against rookie starter Brad Bergesen through eight innings on Wednesday. In the ninth inning, though, the plate approach that has so permeated the Red Sox clubhouse paid off in a huge way.
"This is not a team that's going to roll over," said shortstop Julio Lugo, who chopped the go-ahead single through a drawn-in infield in the 11th inning. "We'll never roll over. They've got to get 27 outs, and we proved that. We've got a group, guys that work hard, and you've got to get 27 outs on this team."
'We pretty much imploded'
It seemed hilarious at the time. It seems like a microcosm now.
Shortstop Julio Lugo threw to first base to retire Felix Pie, a fairly routine defensive play in a fairly routine sixth inning. Dustin Pedroia began to trot off the field, and Lugo, Jeff Bailey and Kevin Youkilis followed. All three of the Red Sox outfielders took a couple of steps toward the dugout. Only catcher Jason Varitek, standing next to a bewildered Nick Markakis, held his ground, waving frantically at the gray shirts leaving the field.
There were only two outs.
"It was my fault," Pedroia said. "I got ahead of myself, and everyone followed me."
Said manager Terry Francona, "I looked up and I saw 'Tek standing there all by himself. The first thing I think is, 'I must be nuts.' I've never seen that. ... I'm looking down at my (lineup) card, like, 'What the hell did I miss?'"
Pitcher Justin Masterson then blew away Robert Andino with a 96-mile-an-hour fastball to retire the side. The Red Sox trotted off the field once again, chuckling to themselves a little bit as the Camden Yards crowd gave them a good old-fashioned Bronx cheer.
"That's really irrelevant to the game," Pedroia said.
Maybe not directly. But it was the very next inning that the Red Sox imploded, blowing a 10-1 lead to an Orioles team they'd beaten eight straight times and handled so easily before a 71-minute rain delay. It was as if they decided to sleepwalk through a game they seemed to have well in hand, particularly with the major leagues' best bullpen taking over for an encouragingly effective John Smoltz.
The collective inability to keep track of the outs in the sixth inning seemed like a goofy fluke at the time. In retrospect, it was a bad, bad omen.
"It would have been funnier to talk about under difference circumstances," Francona said.
The Red Sox lost to the Orioles on Tuesday night in the type of game that can become a turning point if they let it, the type of game that can snowball for the whole team the way it snowballed for the bullpen in the seventh and eighth innings.
Masterson, so dominant in the fifth and sixth innings, allowed a line-drive double to Luke Scott and a no-doubt-about-it home run to Oscar Salazar. He then gave way to Manny Delcarmen, who allowed an RBI single to Pie. Delcarmen gave way to Hideki Okajima, who retired the side in the seventh but allowed four straight hits to open the bottom of the eighth. Okajima gave way to Takashi Saito, who allowed a sacrifice fly and a tough-luck single down the left-field line. Saito then gave way to closer Jonathan Papelbon, who struck out Pie but gave up a ringing double to Nick Markakis that gave the Orioles the lead.
"We pretty much imploded," Papelbon said. "I can't think of any better word to use. That's just what happened."
Said Francona, "We wanted to get to the lefties" -- Markakis and Aubrey Huff -- "for Oki, but that wasn't happening. We sandwiched Manny in there and even stayed with Oki to start the next inning because we wanted to get through (switch-hitter Matt) Wieters. Nothing we did worked."
At the same time, after the rain delay, Red Sox bats went virtually silent against Dave Hendrickson, a journeyman junkballer relegated to the bullpen because he had a 6.35 ERA as a starter. The last time the Red Sox saw him, he pitched the first five innings of what turned out to be a 12-1 win. Tuesday's game looked like it was headed that way before the Orioles started hitting rockets all over the place.
It even looked like the Red Sox would survive the scare, would emerge to smile about the near-miss, until Markakis launched a Papelbon fastball to left-center field to drive home the tying and go-ahead runs.
"We still held onto the lead until that big hit Markakis got," Pedroia said. "It felt like we were fine until that ball that he hit. I was hoping it would have at least bounced over (the fence) to keep (Brian) Roberts at third, but it didn't work out for us."
Nothing did.
The last time the Red Sox blew a lead of this magnitude, back in 1989, insult and injury came hand in hand: Second baseman Marty Barrett had expected to have the day off; he pinch-hit in the ninth inning only because a 10-0 lead had turned into an 11-11 tie. Barrett tripped over first base running out a ground ball and tore up his knee and never was the same player again. Two years later, not yet 33 years old, he was out of baseball.
That's the silver lining: No one got hurt on Tuesday night. Everyone emerged safe and sound.
Even better, the Red Sox ace is pitching on Wednesday.
"There's games in the year you just chalk up to fluke," Smoltz said. "Our bullpen is outstanding. You give credit where credit is due: Baltimore took advantage of every opportunity. They got the bloops to fall. They got some big hits late. They got some two-out hits. But as far as our bullpen is concerned, this will sting a little bit, but when you've got Josh Beckett on the mound tomorrow, he has a tendency to erase that. ...
"It's just one of those games where you shake your head because you can't believe what you just saw."
Shortstop Julio Lugo threw to first base to retire Felix Pie, a fairly routine defensive play in a fairly routine sixth inning. Dustin Pedroia began to trot off the field, and Lugo, Jeff Bailey and Kevin Youkilis followed. All three of the Red Sox outfielders took a couple of steps toward the dugout. Only catcher Jason Varitek, standing next to a bewildered Nick Markakis, held his ground, waving frantically at the gray shirts leaving the field.
There were only two outs.
"It was my fault," Pedroia said. "I got ahead of myself, and everyone followed me."
Said manager Terry Francona, "I looked up and I saw 'Tek standing there all by himself. The first thing I think is, 'I must be nuts.' I've never seen that. ... I'm looking down at my (lineup) card, like, 'What the hell did I miss?'"
Pitcher Justin Masterson then blew away Robert Andino with a 96-mile-an-hour fastball to retire the side. The Red Sox trotted off the field once again, chuckling to themselves a little bit as the Camden Yards crowd gave them a good old-fashioned Bronx cheer.
"That's really irrelevant to the game," Pedroia said.
Maybe not directly. But it was the very next inning that the Red Sox imploded, blowing a 10-1 lead to an Orioles team they'd beaten eight straight times and handled so easily before a 71-minute rain delay. It was as if they decided to sleepwalk through a game they seemed to have well in hand, particularly with the major leagues' best bullpen taking over for an encouragingly effective John Smoltz.
The collective inability to keep track of the outs in the sixth inning seemed like a goofy fluke at the time. In retrospect, it was a bad, bad omen.
"It would have been funnier to talk about under difference circumstances," Francona said.
The Red Sox lost to the Orioles on Tuesday night in the type of game that can become a turning point if they let it, the type of game that can snowball for the whole team the way it snowballed for the bullpen in the seventh and eighth innings.
Masterson, so dominant in the fifth and sixth innings, allowed a line-drive double to Luke Scott and a no-doubt-about-it home run to Oscar Salazar. He then gave way to Manny Delcarmen, who allowed an RBI single to Pie. Delcarmen gave way to Hideki Okajima, who retired the side in the seventh but allowed four straight hits to open the bottom of the eighth. Okajima gave way to Takashi Saito, who allowed a sacrifice fly and a tough-luck single down the left-field line. Saito then gave way to closer Jonathan Papelbon, who struck out Pie but gave up a ringing double to Nick Markakis that gave the Orioles the lead.
"We pretty much imploded," Papelbon said. "I can't think of any better word to use. That's just what happened."
Said Francona, "We wanted to get to the lefties" -- Markakis and Aubrey Huff -- "for Oki, but that wasn't happening. We sandwiched Manny in there and even stayed with Oki to start the next inning because we wanted to get through (switch-hitter Matt) Wieters. Nothing we did worked."
At the same time, after the rain delay, Red Sox bats went virtually silent against Dave Hendrickson, a journeyman junkballer relegated to the bullpen because he had a 6.35 ERA as a starter. The last time the Red Sox saw him, he pitched the first five innings of what turned out to be a 12-1 win. Tuesday's game looked like it was headed that way before the Orioles started hitting rockets all over the place.
It even looked like the Red Sox would survive the scare, would emerge to smile about the near-miss, until Markakis launched a Papelbon fastball to left-center field to drive home the tying and go-ahead runs.
"We still held onto the lead until that big hit Markakis got," Pedroia said. "It felt like we were fine until that ball that he hit. I was hoping it would have at least bounced over (the fence) to keep (Brian) Roberts at third, but it didn't work out for us."
Nothing did.
The last time the Red Sox blew a lead of this magnitude, back in 1989, insult and injury came hand in hand: Second baseman Marty Barrett had expected to have the day off; he pinch-hit in the ninth inning only because a 10-0 lead had turned into an 11-11 tie. Barrett tripped over first base running out a ground ball and tore up his knee and never was the same player again. Two years later, not yet 33 years old, he was out of baseball.
That's the silver lining: No one got hurt on Tuesday night. Everyone emerged safe and sound.
Even better, the Red Sox ace is pitching on Wednesday.
"There's games in the year you just chalk up to fluke," Smoltz said. "Our bullpen is outstanding. You give credit where credit is due: Baltimore took advantage of every opportunity. They got the bloops to fall. They got some big hits late. They got some two-out hits. But as far as our bullpen is concerned, this will sting a little bit, but when you've got Josh Beckett on the mound tomorrow, he has a tendency to erase that. ...
"It's just one of those games where you shake your head because you can't believe what you just saw."
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