Wakefield on DL, Buchholz called up

The Boston Globe has reported that Tim Wakefield has been placed on the 15-day disabled list, opening a spot for Clay Buchholz in the Red Sox rotation. Buchholz will pitch on Wednesday against the Rangers on four days' rest.

A scenario or two for July 31

The trade deadline is 10 days away -- which means it'll still be a week or so until the market shakes itself out and teams decide whether they're in or out.

(We'd help them if they asked, and that might speed the process along. Brewers? In. Mets? Out. Mariners? In. Twins? Out. But no one ever asks.)

While Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein has a full 25-man roster and no glaring holes to fill, but he also has an offense with an on-base percentage and slugging percentage that has declined every month and a bullpen with an ERA that gone in the opposite direction. He has two of baseball's best starting pitchers but a back end of the rotation featuring three veterans with injury history and a Triple-A phenom pounding at the door.

Even though his team still is in first place, Epstein has some work to do. Here's one way things might shake out between now and July 31:

1. Epstein trades Brad Penny to Milwaukee, Philadelphia or St. Louis for the best deal he can get.
Penny had a 3.45 ERA in 10 starts from mid-May to mid-July before getting knocked around in Toronto on Saturday. Even on Saturday, though, Penny threw a consistent 94 or 95 miles per hour and thus has to be appealing for a National League contender looking to shore up the back end of its rotation.

The trade, of course, opens up a rotation spot for Clay Buchholz -- which can't happen until July 28 because Buchholz has been optioned back to Triple-A and thus can't be recalled for 10 days.

2. Epstein trades Mike Lowell to Cincinnati for Double-A pitcher Travis Wood, eating most of Lowell's salary in the process.
The Red Sox can't keep waiting on Lowell -- and depending upon him when they have no idea if he'll be available. The three-year, $37.5 million contract they lavished upon him after he won World Series MVP honors in 2007 now looks like a mistake, and Epstein has shown a willingness to acknowledged mistakes and rectify them so they don't keep haunting his team.

Lowell's .799 OPS ranks him in the middle of the pack of major-league third basemen -- he's behind Chone Figgins and Ryan Zimmerman but ahead of Mark Teahan, Pedro Feliz and Andy LaRoche. His Ultimate Zone Rating ranks him third-worst in the major leagues, however, and John Dewan's plus-minus system has him at minus-15 runs saved -- 35th in the major leagues. (As Joe Posnanski is fond of pointing out, there are only 30 major-league teams.)

The Red Sox have rectified their defensive situation at shortstop. They need to rectify their defensive situation at third base.

Cincinnati, though, needs offense. Its pitching staff has a respectable 4.27 ERA -- but its lineup is averaging just 4.10 runs per game, worse than all but two National League teams. With the National League Central completely up for grabs, it might just take one or two bats to get the Reds right back into the thick of things. Lowell (OPS+ of 101) could step in for Jerry Hairston (OPS+ of 81) and Edwin Encarnacion (OPS+ of 92).

The Red Sox would have to kick in money to pay for the $18 million or so left on Lowell's deal. Given that their payroll dropped from $133 million last year to $121 million this year, there ought to be enough money for the parting gifts awarded to both Lowell and Julio Lugo.

Wood is a 22-year-old lefty who has taken a gigantic step forward this season, recording a 1.21 ERA in 19 starts for the Double-A Carolina Mudcats. He's done it with a strikeout-to-walk ratio that's almost 3.0 and by inducing more ground balls than fly balls. He's just 5-foot-11 and 165 pounds, but Tim Lincecum and Dustin Pedroia ought to have demonstrated by now that you can't dismiss a player just because he isn't 6-foot-2.

3. Epstein trades Ryan Kalish to Toronto for Marco Scutaro.
Once Toronto general manager J.P. Ricciardi either makes a Roy Halladay deal or gets to the point of no return on a Roy Halladay deal, it's time for him to sell off other expendable parts for prospects with an eye on 2011.

Scutaro, as previously discussed, fits exactly what the Red Sox need. For one thing, he's a leadoff hitter who thrives in the leadoff spot -- he's OBP'ing .383 in the leadoff spot this season -- and takes pitches and works counts and refuses to give away at-bats. On top of that, he's one of the best defensive infielders in the major leagues: He leads all shortstops in plus-minus this season (plus-22), and he was third among third basemen in plus-minus last season (plus-17).

With Lowell gone, Scutaro becomes the Red Sox's everyday third baseman but can play shortstop and second base when needed. He would allow Kevin Youkilis to return to first base, the position where he appears to be far better with the glove.

The Red Sox aren't going to trade Buchholz or Lars Anderson for Scutaro, but the depth they've built in their system would allow them to trade someone like Kalish, a 21-year-old outfielder who OPS'ed .938 at Single-A Salem before scuffling upon his promotion to Double-A Portland. Kalish was the system's sixth-ranked prospect in 2008 but dropped out of the top 10 rankings in 2009. He's a chip the Red Sox value highly, but you have to give up something to get something.

Then again, the Blue Jays might be interested in a prospect in the Cincinnati system that the Reds might be willing to trade for Lowell. If Epstein could broker a three-way deal that involves a prospect or two going from Cincinnati straight to Toronto, he could end up trading Lowell for Scutaro straight up without touching his own prospects.

Ranking the best relievers in baseball

Remember the Ultimate Pitcher Rating exercise from a few days ago? The idea was to take K/BB ratio and GB/FB ratio and multiply them together as a measure of the way a pitcher maximizes strikeouts and ground balls and minimizes walks. (Credit should be given to work done by Ron Shandler and others -- I'm certainly not pretending to be the first person to think this way.)

You can do the same thing with relief pitchers. In some ways, relief pitchers have a job that's different than that of starting pitchers -- for one thing, they often inherit runners that must be stranded. But the basic premise is the same: Get as many outs as possible. The more hitters a reliever strikes out and the more ground balls he induces, the more outs he's going to get.

Check out the relief pitcher leaderboard from 2008:
1. Mariano Rivera, 22.71
2. Jonathan Papelbon, 15.22
3. Chad Qualls, 9.97
4. Rafael Perez, 8.79
5. Carlos Villanueva, 8.55
6. Cla Meredith, 7.89
7. Matt Thornton, 7.82
8. Hong-Chih Kuo, 7.62
9. Brian Shouse, 7.53
10. Jeremy Affeldt, 6.30

(Note: Rivera and Kuo both had sub-2.00 ERAs, while Papelbon, Qualls, Villanueva, Thornton and Shouse all had sub-3.00 ERAs. Of the top 10 relievers in what we'll call Ultimate Pitcher Rating, only Meredith had an ERA over 4.00. That ought to tell you something about the validity of the statistic.)

Here's what the leaderboard looks like this year:
1. Mariano Rivera, 26.70
2. Chad Qualls, 20.39
3. Scott Downs, 12.09
4. Bobby Jenks, 8.90
5. Todd Coffey, 8.13
6. Jonathan Broxton, 8.09
7. Jeremy Affeldt, 7.81
8. Pedro Feliciano, 7.67
9. Joe Nathan, 7.39
10. Manny Corpas, 6.32
***
26. Justin Masterson, 4.80
(Daniel Bard does not qualify but would rank 56th at 2.82.)
87. Manny Delcarmen, 2.03
108. Hideki Okajima, 1.65
122. Jonathan Papelbon, 1.39
124. Ramon Ramirez, 1.36
134. Takashi Saito, 1.18

You might be right to be worried about the Red Sox bullpen, a group of pitchers that has looked more and more mortal as the summer has progressed. Check out the unit's ERA by month so far this season:
* April: 2.88
* May: 3.04
* June: 3.82
* July: 4.00

The Ultimate Pitcher Rating stats show that the unit might be regressing to the mean and not just going through a slump. Check out Papelbon's peripheral numbers over the years, just as one example:

K/BB
2006: 5.77
2007: 5.60
2008: 9.63
2009: 2.28

GB/FB
2006: 0.82
2007: 0.52
2008: 1.58
2009: 0.61

Papelbon's strikeout-to-walk numbers are way off his career norm, and his ground ball-to-fly ball ratio, while in line with what he did in 2006 and 2007, has dropped steeply from 2008.

At one time, it looked as though the Red Sox would be able to cruise into the playoffs with the best bullpen in the game. Now, though, they're showing chinks in the armor -- and the numbers say those chinks might be evidence of real weakness.

(The solution? According to these numbers, Chad Qualls of the last-place Arizona Diamondbacks might be the second-best relief pitcher in baseball behind Mariano Rivera. He's arbitration-eligible after this season and a free agent after the 2010 season. Go get him, Theo. Go get him.)

You say potato, I say left fielder

From Nick Cafardo's baseball notes in Sunday's Boston Globe: "(Double-A outfielder Josh) Reddick is a leadoff man and a very good outfielder who has stroked 12 homers. Could he be a major chip in a deal?"

You say "major chip in a deal." I say "Jason Bay successor."

Red Sox fans and reporters alike always expect the Red Sox to make a big move this time of year, to trade prospects for a player or two who could put them over the top and all but ensure a trip to the World Series. Freddy Sanchez went to Pittsburgh in 2003. Kason Gabbard and David Murphy went to Texas in 2007. Craig Hansen and Brandon Moss went to Pittsburgh in 2008.

Prospects go elsewhere. Impact major leaguers come to Boston. It's just the way life works -- and it's what Cafardo, a Globe staff writer for 20 years, has come to expect.

But maybe that's not what's happening anymore. Maybe Theo Epstein's well-documented affection for his prospects isn't just a front designed to drive prices down on opposing teams' stars. Maybe Reddick -- like Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden and Lars Anderson -- are destined to join Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester, Jonathan Papelbon, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis at Fenway Park rather than be shipped elsewhere.

The Red Sox have a decision to make about Jason Bay. Negotiations have been tabled until the offseason -- and by the time Bay hits the open market, he might be offered more money than the Red Sox are willing to pay him, anyway. But, still, there's a decision to make: Is it going to be Bay that's playing left field for the Red Sox for the next four or five years, or is it going to be someone else? Might that someone else be Reddick?

Reddick won't be ready for the major leagues next season. Like Anderson, he still has zero career at-bats above Double-A. But the path he's on certainly makes him likely to be ready to contribute at the major-league level by 2011 -- at which point he'll just be turning 24 years old.

Check out this comparison of minor-league numbers:

Bay
Age 22 (Single-A): .315/.409/.488 (.896 OPS)
Age 23 (Single-A/Double-A): .283/.376/.470 (.846 OPS)
Age 24 (Triple-A): .303/.410/.541 (.951 OPS)

Reddick

Age 20 (Single-A): .306/.352/.531 (.884 OPS)

Age 21 (Single-A/Double-A): .311/.356/.544 (.899 OPS)

Age 22 (Double-A): .263/.344/.526 (.870 OPS)*

*Season still in progress

Having been drafted when he still was 19 years old -- Bay played three seasons of college baseball and was drafted a couple of months shy of his 22nd birthday -- Reddick is taking a more scenic route to the major leagues. But Reddick is putting up numbers that are competitive with anything Bay ever did in the minor leagues.

In terms of slugging percentage, actually, he's well ahead of Bay's pace. It's his on-base percentage where he's had work to do. His focus this season, therefore, has been plate discipline and drawing walks. Here's another quick comparison:

Bay's plate appearances per walk
Age 22: 7.8
Age 23: 8.5
Age 24: 6.8

Reddick's plate appearances per walk
Age 20: 15.5
Age 21: 15.3

This season, with the Red Sox hounding him about his on-base percentage, Reddick resolved to boost his walk total.

"I had about 40 walks last year," he said during spring training. (The total actually was 34.) "Hopefully, I get into the 50 or 60 range and have a batting average and on-base percentage that are a pretty good distance apart instead of just 20 or 30 points apart. Hopefully, I'll hit 3-something and have an on-base percentage of 4-something with the walks in there."

So far, so good.

His plate appearances per walk this season? A Bay-esque 8.9.

He's not hitting 3-something -- he's hitting .263 -- but his batting average and on-base percentage are, in fact, more than 80 points apart thanks to the 27 walks he's already drawn. That hasn't cost him any power, either -- he has 12 home runs in just over 200 at-bats and is slugging .526, not too far off his numbers from last year or the year before.

On top of that, he seems to have played a pretty impressive defensive center field, too, and has six outfield assists so far this season.

If the Red Sox sign Bay to an extension, they'll owe him somewhere around $15 million a year for four or five years. Reddick, on the other hand, won't earn more than $500,000 a year in 2011, 2012 or 2013.

That's why so many teams now are protecting their prospects so fiercely. If the Red Sox can find a one-year stopgap in left field for next season -- Bobby Abreu, perhaps? -- they might do well to hand the reins to Reddick in 2011 and see what he can do.

The Red Sox and lucrative contracts

You might think the impending release of Julio Lugo has nothing to do with their negotiations with Jason Bay or their possible interest in Roy Halladay.

Wrong. All three have everything to do with each other.

When the Red Sox do eventually cut ties with Lugo -- they designated the shortstop for assignment on Friday -- they acknowledged that the four-year, $36 million contract they bestowed upon him before the 2007 season was as big a mistake as they've ever made.

"Sometimes the best organizations make mistakes,"general manager Theo Epstein told reporters in Toronto. "It was a free-agent signing that didn’t work out. We ended up paying for past performance, not current performance. It was a mistake, and as the decision-maker, that’s on me. We'll move on. We're a better organization having gone through it, and we'll make better decisions going forward."

Had the Red Sox merely signed Lugo for $3 or $4 million a year, the release of Lugo wouldn't have been nearly as big of a deal. Heck, the Red Sox probably would have been able to trade him to the Mets or the Cubs or the Reds without much trouble, kicking in a little cash but not being on the hook for anything close to the $13 million Lugo still is owed now.

The point seems obvious, but it's worth spelling out: The more money for which you sign a player, the costlier it is if the player doesn't work out.

And that's where Jason Bay and Roy Halladay come in.

Halladay, of course, is the preeminent player available on the trade market. The Blue Jays are commanding a huge ransom for him, and for his new team truly to get their prospects' worth, that team will have to sign him to some sort of contract extension. Halladay is earning $15.75 million this season and is well aware that former teammate A.J. Burnett signed a contract last winter for more than $16 million a year.

He's in line for a hefty raise, and he knows it.

Bay and the Red Sox broke off contract talks during the All-Star break -- did anyone see that coming? -- despite having made an "aggressive" offer that Bay said left him "definitely more encouraged" about the direction the money was going.

If the Red Sox had offered him $16 million a year for four or five years, though, you'd better believe Bay would have said he'd "definitely" sign that deal.

***

Let's spell it out again: The more money for which you sign a player, the costlier it is if the player doesn't work out.

The Red Sox have learned that lesson the hard way.

Check out the contracts the Red Sox have handed out since 2000 that have been worth at least $9 million in average annual value:

* Manny Ramirez, $20 million a year over eight years
Manny was just about to turn 29 years old at the time. It didn't go well all the time -- as evidenced by the number of times the Red Sox tried to trade or release the All-Star outfielder -- and ended badly, but the Red Sox probably don't win the World Series twice without him.

* Daisuke Matsuzaka, $17.1 million a year over six years
(This includes the posting fee of $51.1 million.)
The jury is still out, but this one doesn't look good so far.

* J.D. Drew, $14 million a year over five years
He's an on-base machine who appears to be a nice fit at the top of the lineup. He might not be the type of player you'd want to be your highest-paid player, but he's far from the bust some make him out to be.

* Curt Schilling, $13.5 million a year over three years
The Red Sox don't get him if they don't overpay to get him to waive his no-trade clause. The Red Sox also don't reverse the curse without him.

* David Ortiz, $13 million a year over four years
It looked like a bargain a couple of years ago -- but given how much trouble he had earlier this season, how much do you like the sound of paying Ortiz $13 million next season?

* Mike Lowell, $12.5 million a year over three years
This deal still has a year to go on it -- and, like that of Ortiz, might be a year too long.

* Pedro Martinez, $12.5 million a year over six years
For the greatest run of pitching baseball has ever seen? A bargain.

* Jason Varitek, $10 million a year over four years
He's done pretty much with the Red Sox expected: Decline with the bat but remain a steady presence behind the plate for one of the best pitching staffs in baseball.

* Edgar Renteria, $10 million a year over four years
On the bright side, if you don't sign Renteria, you aren't able to land Ramon Ramirez in a trade.

* Josh Beckett, $10 million a year over three years
He looks like a Cy Young Award candidate so far this year. A bahgain.

* Julio Lugo, $9 million a year over four years
Yeah, about that...

With all of that to work with, you're looking at about a 50-50 chance of getting a positive outcome out of bestowing a big contract. The contracts of Lowell and Ortiz could leave the Red Sox paying more than $25 million for a pair of either injured or ineffective players next season, and the exorbitant Matsuzaka deal already looks like a disaster on its own. Even the successes -- $20 million for Ramirez and $14 million for Drew -- required a huge percentage of the team's budget.

The more you pay for a player, the more you'd better get out of him to make your investment worthwhile. The more you pay for a player in his 30s -- as Halladay and Bay both are -- the more you risk paying huge sums of money to a player who can't play to the best of his ability by the end of the contract.

That's why the Red Sox hold onto their prospects so tight. If you make a mistake on Clay Buchholz or Lars Anderson, it costs you maybe $1 million in wasted salary. If you make a mistake on Roy Halladay, it could cost you upwards of $50 million in wasted salary.

And before you point out that Bay is an All-Star or that Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball, remember this: Lugo had a better on-base percentage than Miguel Tejada, Rafael Furcal and Jimmy Rollins in 2005 and was considered by advanced fielding metrics to be an above- to above-average defensive shortstop in 2004, 2005 and in his first year in Boston in 2007.

No one thought he was Juan Uribe when he signed.

"You just talk to anyone in opposing dugouts, and there's a ton of respect in baseball for Julio Lugo," assistant general manager Jed Hoyer said at the time. "He plays hard every day. He plays with high energy. He's a rare impact bat at shortstop that can hit at the top of the order. There's a lot of reasons we want Julio Lugo to be our shortstop for a long time."

The Red Sox, thanks to their deep pockets, have made plenty of mistakes with long-term, big-money contracts. It's only thanks to those deep pockets that their mistakes haven't crippled them as a franchise. But no general manager wants to throw money away that he could use elsewhere to create a juggernaut -- and no owner wants to see his money thrown away.

But if Epstein truly has learned from those mistakes, well, you're likely to see that manifest itself in the way he negotiates with the Blue Jays and Halladay and in the way he negotiates with Bay. The Red Sox have an unbelievable player-development "machine," as one competing executive put it. The more Epstein puts his faith in young players, the less money he's potential flushing away on expensive disasters.

Why Roy Halladay matters

Roy Halladay went years pitching in virtual anonymity in Toronto. The location of his team and its inability to get to the playoffs meant he went unnoticed as baseball fans heaped praise upon contemporaries like Brandon Webb, CC Sabathia, Johan Santana, Josh Beckett and others.

All of a sudden, though, so many people are spending so much time talking about Halladay it seems like he's on the verge of being overrated. He's not really the best pitcher in baseball, is he?

Well, actually, if you look at the numbers, he is.

Pitchers can only control so much. They can control their strikeout rate. They can control their walk rate. They also can, to a large extent, control whether the hitter hits the ball on the ground or in the air. (Ground balls aren't as good as strikeouts, of course, but they tend to be far more harmless than fly balls.) It stands to reason that a pitcher who strikes out the most hitters, walks the fewest hitters and induces the most ground balls would be the best pitcher in the game.

To find that pitcher, I took strikeout-to-walk ratio (strikeouts divided by walks) and ground ball-to-fly ball ratio (ground balls divided by fly balls) and multiplied them together. The average pitcher has a K/BB ratio around 2 and a GB/FB ratio around 1.1, so your average pitcher would have a UPR (Ultimate Pitcher Rating) right around 2.2.

(By the way: I don't give enough credit here to FanGraphs.com and its unbelievable "Export to Excel" tool that allows you to export data and play around with it without having to retype it all or do all the calculations by yourself. It's a really, really fantastic system.)

Here's the leaderboard over the last four seasons (with ERA+ in parentheses):

2009
Roy Halladay: 13.17 (151)
Joel Piniero: 10.92 (131)
Dan Haren: 9.43 (226)
Javier Vazquez: 7.80 (142)
Zack Greinke: 6.69 (204)

2008
Roy Halladay: 10.56 (154)
Brandon Webb: 8.88 (139)
Derek Lowe: 8.60 (131)
Mike Mussina: 7.94 (132)
Dan Haren: 6.59 (138)

2007
Derek Lowe: 8.42 (118)
Brandon Webb: 8.26 156)
Felix Hernandez: 8.21 (110)
Greg Maddux: 7.40 (98)
Tim Hudson: 7.17 (128)
(This was the year Halladay had a 3.71 ERA, his highest ERA since 2004. He ranked 11th on the leaderboard, right between Erik Bedard and John Smoltz, with a mark of 5.31.)

2006
Brandon Webb: 14.45 (152)
Roy Halladay: 10.09 (143)
Derek Lowe: 8.65 (124)
Chris Carpenter: 8.05 (144)
Felix Hernandez: 6.89 (98)

It's not a perfect system, but it does say something about the pitchers that perform best in those aspects of the game they can control.

Two names stick out on the list. One is Brandon Webb, a pitcher who hasn't yet had an ERA over 3.60 in his major-league career. (The 13.50 ERA he compiled in his one start this season doesn't count.)

The other is Halladay, a pitcher who indeed may be the best in the game.

The impending courtship of Marco Scutaro

Theo Epstein almost certainly is taking a look at the roster of the Toronto Blue Jays this week. He's trying to figure out if it's worth the price it would take to acquire Roy Halladay. He's trying to figure out if it might be worth inquiring about third baseman Scott Rolen -- particularly if Mike Lowell's sore hip continues to flare up.

Epstein, eventually, will find another name on the list, the name of a player who will be a free agent after this season. This player isn't making much money but isn't exactly helping the Blue Jays go anywhere, either, and he might be available for a relative pittance in terms of prospects. This player would be more than adequate as a place-holder should Lowell continue to struggle, and he'd be a perfect fit as a utility player next season.

This player is Marco Scutaro.

Scutaro doesn't just have the best name in the major leagues -- aside from Coco Crisp, of course. Scutaro also is exactly the type of player the Red Sox covet and exactly the type of player who would fit beautifully with what the Red Sox are trying to do both at the plate and in the field.

At the plate
The Red Sox want guys who are going to make pitchers work and get on base. That's the focus. That's what they want to spend their money on.

Nick Green has done a nice job filling in while Jed Lowrie works his way back, but making pitchers work is not exactly his forte -- he swings at 39 percent of pitches out of the strike zone. (The major league average is somewhere around 24 percent.)

Kevin Youkilis swings at 18.2 percent of pitches out of the strike zone. J.D. Drew swings at 17.6 percent.

Scutaro, so far this season, swings at 11.5 percent.

In fact, check out the American League leaderboard:

1. Scutaro: 11.5 percent
2. Nick Swisher: 16.7 percent
3. Bobby Abreu: 16.7 percent
4. Chone Figgins: 17.9 percent
5. Denard Span: 17.1 percent

Scutaro is far and away the best in the American League at laying off pitches that are out of the strike zone. At the same time, though, he's terrific at making contact at the ball in the strike zone -- he has a contact rate of 96.1 percent when the ball is in the strike zone, third-best in the American League.

Jason Bay, for a little perspective, makes contact when he swings at a ball in the strike zone just 80.5 percent of the time. Even Youkilis and Drew both are under 90 percent.

Scutaro will make pitchers throw strikes and is able to put the ball in play. Small wonder his on-base percentage (.384) ranks 11th in the American League this year, right in between Justin Morneau and Miguel Cabrera. Among current Red Sox, only Youkilis (.419) ranks higher.

In the field
It's not just that Scutaro comes across as a good defensive shortstop through John Dewan's plus/minus system.

So far this season, he's the best.

So far this season, Scutaro has earned a plus-21 for plays made, according to Dewan's system, and has saved 16 runs -- tops in the major leagues. (Jack Wilson is at plus-20, and Elvis Andrus is at plus-10. No one else is in double digits. Nick Green is at plus-4. Julio Lugo is at minus-15.)

A year ago, while only playing part-time at shortstop, he earned a plus-12 and saved nine runs, good for eighth in the major leagues.

All that time, though, he also was playing part-time at third base -- where he earned himself a plus-17 on Dewan's scale and saved 13 runs. Only Adrian Beltre (plus-32) and Jack Hannahan (plus-21) ranked higher. Even Blue Jays teammate Scott Rolen, well known as one of the best defensive third basemen in the game, only recorded a plus-13.

Imagine having Scutaro available to play both shortstop and third base both this season and next. Kevin Youkilis -- a player whose defensive numbers consistently are far better at first base than at third -- could play first base full-time. Lowell could take some days off. Lowrie could take some days off.

***

Scutaro, for whatever reason, always has been seen as a useful utility infielder but not much more. He's almost 34 years old but didn't get more than 100 plate appearances in a single season until just five years ago. (Surprise, surprise: It was with Billy Beane's Oakland Athletics.)

He's never been highly coveted. When the A's traded him to the Blue Jays, in fact, they received only minor league pitchers Kristian Bell and Graham Godfrey. (Our research might be off, but we believe Bell starred in "Forgetting Sarah Marshall" and Godfrey played the voice of Iago in "Aladdin." Not much of a trade.)

He's making just $1.1 million this season -- and he's a free agent after this season.

Epstein would do well to inquire about Scutaro the next time he calls Ricciardi -- he could pretend he's calling about Halladay, in fact, and then work his way to the 34-year-old career utility infielder. If he can't get a deal done this month, he ought to have Scutaro's agent on speed-dial once free agency begins this winter.

The best teams are built with a specific plan in mind. Few players both are dirt-cheap affordable and fit the Red Sox plan perfectly. But Scutaro is one of those players.

Totally random Red Sox statistics

BillJamesOnline.net (subscription required) has one of the most impressive inventories of obscure statistics imaginable. With the Red Sox still idle for one more day -- what's the point of a day off two days after the All-Star Game, by the way? -- it seemed like a good time to dive into the ocean of statistics and see what we could dig up:

Baserunning
The Bill James plus-minus baserunning analysis gives a player one point for advancing an extra base where an average player would not -- be it stealing a base, scoring from second on a single or beating out a double-playball -- and takes away three points for being thrown out on the bases when an average player would not have been thrown out. The numbers are broken down between baserunning, stolen bases and net gain. Zero is average.

The point, of course, is that baserunning has to do with far more than speed. Baserunning has to do with instincts and understanding game situations as much as it does the ability to get from base to base as fast as possible.

Jason Varitek: -2
BR: -2
SB: 0

Kevin Youkilis: -1
BR: -3
SB: +2

Dustin Pedroia: +7
BR: +3
SB: +4
(A year ago, Pedroia had a minus-7 baserunning score but a plus-18 stolen-base score.)

Nick Green: -11
BR: -4
SB: -7
(Yikes.)

Mike Lowell: -17
BR: -15
SB: -2
("What I do really isn't called 'sprinting.'")

J.D. Drew: +7
BR: +9
SB: -2

Jacoby Ellsbury: +27
BR: +1
SB: +26
(We all know he's a tremendous base-stealer -- but isn't it a little of a surprise that Drew and Pedroia both are better at taking the extra base during the run of play?)

Jason Bay: +17
BR: +9
SB: +8
(For a guy who's not particularly fast, he's an outstanding baserunner.)

David Ortiz: -6
BR: -2
SB: -4
(In case you were hoping for a surprise, well, sorry.)

***

Performance as leadoff man
Much has been made about who should be leading off for the Red Sox. Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia and J.D. Drew all have had their turns, and Kevin Youkilis wouldn't be a terrible fit there, either. The mission of a leadoff hitter is to set the table so the team scores some runs -- and here's a measure of how many runs are scored when each of the above players leads off an inning:

Average Red Sox player: 0.6 runs per inning

Jacoby Ellsbury (116 innings led off): 0.73 runs per inning
* Reached base 33 times; team scored 49 runs in those innings (1.48)#
* Did not reach base 83 times; team scored 36 runs (0.43)
#: Ranks seventh in the major leagues behind Justin Morneau, Jimmy Rollins, Jason Bartlett, Torii Hunter, Brandon Inge and Jerry Hairston. Ryan Howard, Troy Tulowitzki and Chris Young round out the top 10.

Dustin Pedroia (95 innings led off): 0.67 runs per inning
* Reached base 35 times; team scored 43 runs in those innings (1.23)
* Did not reach base 60 times; team scored 21 runs (0.35)

J.D. Drew (75 innings led off): 0.53 runs per inning
* Reached base 22 times; team scored 21 runs in those innings (0.95)
* Did not reach base 53 times; team scored 19 runs (0.36)

Kevin Youkilis (61 innings led off): 0.52 runs per inning
* Reached base 25 times; team scored 15 runs in those innings (0.60)
* Did not reach base 36 times; team scored 17 runs (0.47)

It's not a huge sample size, but it does lend some credence to the idea that Ellsbury ought to be back at the top of the batting order sooner rather than later.

***

Performance by quality of opposing pitcher

Pretty self-explanatory. Sorted by ERA. Listed by OPS.

Jason Varitek

Sub-3.50: .728

3.51-4.25: .460

4.26-5.25: 1.030

5.25-plus: .936

Kevin Youkilis
Sub-3.50: .916
3.51-4.25: .926
4.26-5.25: .821
5.25-plus: 1.234
(Great against good pitching. Awesome against bad pitching.)

Dustin Pedroia

Sub-3.50: .730

3.51-4.25: .848

4.26-5.25: .670

5.25-plus: .990

Nick Green

Sub-3.50: .666

3.51-4.25: .688

4.26-5.25: .662

5.25-plus: .875

(Really struggles against anything but bad pitching.)

Mike Lowell

Sub-3.50: .694

3.51-4.25: .727

4.26-5.25: .636

5.25-plus: 1.085

J.D. Drew

Sub-3.50: .720

3.51-4.25: .740

4.26-5.25: .829

5.25-plus: 1.167

Jacoby Ellsbury

Sub-3.50: .571

3.51-4.25: .823

4.26-5.25: .603

5.25-plus: 1.012

Jason Bay

Sub-3.50: .697

3.51-4.25: .987

4.26-5.25: .856

5.25-plus: 1.114

David Ortiz

Sub-3.50: .668

3.51-4.25: .820

4.26-5.25: .623

5.25-plus: .848

What's interesting about this stat is how it applies to the old idea of how good pitching always beats good hitting (and vice versa). Youkilis, Drew, Ellsbury and Bay all tear bad pitching apart (to the tune of a 1.000-plus OPS). But only one player even has an OPS of .750 against great pitchers -- Youkilis is at .916 -- and Drew (.720), Varitek (.728) and Pedroia (.730) are the only ones above .700.

Those might be the guys the Red Sox will need to see producing both in games against tough pitchers down the stretch as well as in Game 1 and 2 of the ALDS, ALCS and World Series.

Don't blame Jason Bay when he leaves

The All-Star Game presents us with a wonderful opportunity to take a break from the day-to-day grind of baseball and instead shift our focus to the day-to-day grind of asking Jason Bay if he's signed a long-term contract yet.

Someone has to say it: Barring a big concession on either side, he's not going to sign a long-term contract during the season. Barring something unforeseen happening, he's not going to sign a long-term contract with the Red Sox during the offseason, either. Chances are good, in fact, that he's going to get an offer he can't refuse from Brian Cashman and the New York Yankees -- say, $75 million over five years -- and be donning pinstripes come next April.

If that's the case, he'll be lustily booed each of the nine or 10 times he sets foot at Fenway Park throughout the length of his contract.

And that would be a shame.

Jason Bay is a terrific baseball player. One of the best. His OPS ranks him 14th in the American League, right in between Mark Teixeira and Evan Longoria, and that's including his June swoon. He's hit 20 home runs and driven in 72 runs this season, for those who care about that sort of thing. He's seeing 4.01 pitches per at-bat, for those who care about that sort of thing.

(He's not so much with the defense, however. According to the Ultimate Zone Rating statistic, he's consistently a below-average left fielder.)

But he's generally a terrific baseball player as well as a terrific guy with the media -- he's easily the most accessible Red Sox player in the clubhouse -- and someone any fan would be thrilled to have playing in Boston for the next three or four years.

But he's also the type of guy who someone will overpay. It might be the Yankees. It might be the Seattle Mariners, a team that (a) plays in his hometown, and (b) has the best defensive center fielder in the game, a player who might help alleviate Bay's defensive shortcomings. It might be a suitor to be named later. (The Cleveland Indians, perhaps? Grady Sizemore was in Bay's wedding, after all.)

Theo Epstein's Red Sox have tended to target specific players they like, on-base guys, guys who fit into their budget frame. They've made mistakes -- Julio Lugo as the prime example -- but haven't been willing to break the bank except in rare cases like a right-in-his-prime slugger like Mark Teixeira.

For all the money Boston spends in salary, in fact, the Red Sox and Astros are the only teams with a payroll among baseball's top 10 that does not feature a player making $15 million or more million. (J.D. Drew, the Red Sox's highest-paid player, will make $14 million this season.)

Here's the list of $15 million-or-more players on the 10 payrolls in baseball this season:

1. Yankees: Alex Rodriguez ($32 million), Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter, CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Mariano Rivera
2. Mets: Johan Santana ($20 million), Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado
3. Cubs: Carlos Zambrano ($17.75 million), Alfonso Soriano
4. Tigers: Magglio Ordonez ($18 million), Miguel Cabrera
5. Phillies: Ryan Howard ($15 million)
6. Red Sox: None.
7. Angels: Torii Hunter ($17.5 million), Vladimir Guerrero
8. Dodgers: Manny Ramirez ($25 million)
9. Astros: None. (Lance Berkman makes $14.5 million.)
10. Mariners: Ichiro Suzuki ($17.5 million)

Look at that list. You'd think it would represent a cross-section of the best players in the game, but we all know it doesn't.

Guerrero, Jeter, Ordonez and Soriano all are wildly overpaid for what they've produced this season. Jeter ranks 44th in the major leagues in OPS+; Soriano ranks 162nd, and Ordonez ranks 173rd. Guerrero is on the disabled list.

Part of the reason: Every single one of the above four players is older than 31 -- the age Bay will be at the end of this season. Soriano is 33, Guerrero is 34, and Jeter and Ordonez are 35 -- the ages during which Bay will be playing at the tail end of a four- or five-year contract.

If the Yankees or Mariners offer Bay $15 million a year for four or five years, Epstein probably would be right to let his left fielder go.

And Bay would be right to take it.

Johnny Damon has been booed vociferously in Boston ever since he jilted the Red Sox for a four-year, $52 million deal with the Yankees. The key, Damon said, was that the Red Sox weren't willing to offer a fourth year -- so he instead took an offer that included a fourth year at $13 million a year.

If Damon had stuck with the Red Sox -- be it out of loyalty or because his wife loves shopping in Newbury Street -- his contract would have expired after last season. He would have found himself in the middle of the worst free-agent market since baseball first debuted free-agent markets. He would have cost himself close to $10 million.

Bay has a family that grew up in a blue-collar town in British Columbia. His father has worked at the factory in town for more than 30 years. He has two daughters -- one is almost 3, one still is not yet 10 months old. How could he justify leaving $10 million on the table -- or more?

For as well as he's fit as a member of the Red Sox, Jason Bay likely will be gone at the end of the season.

Don't blame the Red Sox. Don't blame Bay.

It'll be what's best for everyone.

Giving credit to the greatest pitchers of all-time

Earned run averages have skyrocketed in the last couple of decades. In the 40 years after World War II, American League pitchers compiled an ERA of under 4.25 every single year except 1950 and 1977. National League pitchers compiled an ERA of under 4.25 every single year except 1977. In the last 30 years, though, we've seen ERAs go stratospheric -- not since 1992 has the American League seen its pitchers compile a sub-4.25 ERA, and not since 1992 has either league seen its pitchers compile a sub-4.00 ERA.

Five of the worst six ERA seasons -- and seven of the worst nine -- in American League history have come since 1994. If you discount the pre-1901 era, same goes for the National League but worse: It's nine of the worst 11.

You can probably guess the point that's being made here: The pitchers of today are the greatest pitchers of all-time.

No, really. The cumulative American League ERA so far this season is 4.41, a tick up from last year's 4.32 and well above pretty much every ERA posted between 1901 and 1990. The cumulative National League ERA so far this season is 4.24, a tick down from last year's 4.30 but still well above where it used to be.

Still, though: The pitchers of today are the greatest pitchers of all-time.

A couple of fairly simple points:
1. Strikeout rates have outpaced home run rates by a growth factor of 4.5 since the Steroid Era began.
2. Strikeout rates have outpaced walk rates by a factor of 15.
3. Walk rates, however, still have increased -- but only very gradually.

We all know how hitters have been hitting more and more home runs since the Steroid Era began in 1993 or 1994. Some also have pointed out -- Joe Posnanski, of course, did it best -- how hitters have been striking out more and more in that same time span. Posnanski's premise was that if hitters would strike out a little less often and make contact a little more, they'd have more opportunity to hit .400.

But strikeouts are a product of two things: The pitcher and the hitter. Posnanski, for the sake of his premise, looked at hitters. But pitchers have quite a bit to do with it, too -- and if you take a look at the above points, you can see why.

Home runs are up. Strikeouts are up. You could easily jump to the conclusion that hitters simply are swinging more -- they're not making consistent contact because they're trying to hit home runs all the time, but they're swinging more.

Except walk rates are up, too.

Here are some of the raw numbers -- you'll be spared the long list of data and the chart and the linear function and the slopes and R-squared values and everything that went into them:

Home run rate
1980: 1.9 percent of at-bats
1985: 2.3
1990: 2.1
1995: 2.6
2000: 3.0
2005: 2.7
2009: 2.7
(Since 1980, if you take every year into consideration, the rate of increase is 0.33 percent.)

Strikeout rate
1980: 12.5 percent of at-bats
1985: 14.0
1990: 14.9
1995: 16.2
2000: 16.5
2005: 16.5
2009: 17.7
(Since 1980, the rate of increase is 1.49 percent.)

Walk rate
1980: 8.2
1985: 8.6
1990: 8.6
1995: 9.1
2000: 9.6
2005: 8.2
2009: 9.1
(Since 1980, the rate of increase is 0.1 percent.)

If hitters were striking out more often because they were swinging more often, well, you'd think you'd see walk rates start to decline. But that's not the case. Walk rates haven't skyrocketed, but they have climbed gradually northward throughout the last 30 years.

The huge increase in strikeout rates -- home runs have increased, but strikeouts have increased almost five times as fast as home runs -- can't just be attributed to free-swinging hitters. It must have something to do with the pitching, too.

Strikeouts and walks and home runs, as has been well-documented, are about the only thing a pitcher can control. Once the ball gets put into play, the pitcher has pretty much no control over what happens to it. It helps if it's not hit all that hard, of course, but baseball fans everywhere have seen hundreds of line drives land in outfielders' gloves and hundreds of bloop singles barely reach the outfield grass.

Analysts more and more are looking to strikeout ratios -- as well as strikeout-to-walk ratios -- to determine the best pitchers in the game. Check out this list:

1. Justin Verlander
2. Jon Lester
3. Zack Grienke
4. Felix Hernandez
5. Josh Beckett
6. A.J. Burnett
7. Roy Halladay
8. Matt Garza
9. Jered Weaver

That looks pretty much like a list of the best pitchers in the American League, right? Well, that's the strikeout-rate leaderboard. Verlander leads the way with a strikeout rate of 29.5 -- that is, 29.5 percent of hitters he faces go straight back to the dugout -- and Weaver has a more-than-respectable 21.1.

Back in 1980, Rudy May led the American League with a 19.3 percent strikeout rate. He'd rank 16th in the American League this season Dave Righetti led the American League in 1981 with a 21.1 percent strikeout rate -- and he'd still barely crack the top 10.

(By excluding the National League, of course, we're excluding guys like Steve Carlton and Nolan Ryan, pitchers who routinely had strikeout rates of 20 percent or better. The National League this season, though, has four pitchers -- Tim Lincecum, Javy Vazquez, Yovani Gallardo and Dan Haren -- with strikeout rates of 25 percent or better.)

Pitchers in the last 30 years have had to face some of the best hitters in the history of the game. Much of that has to do, of course, with performance-enhancing drugs. But building up artificial bulk doesn't just increase home-run power -- the stronger your upper body, the quicker your bat speed. The quicker your bat speed, the more contact and better contact a hitter makes. (Hand-eye coordination helps, too -- just ask Dustin Pedroia.)

There's a reason, after all, that doubles and triples have increased at just as steady a rate over the last 30 years as home runs.

All the while, though, strikeout rates have increased almost five times faster than home run rates and more than twice as fast as the extra-base-hit rate.

Pitchers' ERAs have, predictably, climbed to new heights in the last couple of decades. Before everyone came to grips with the issue of performance enhancers, one common explanation was that expansion had watered down pitching, that pitchers weren't as good as they used to be.

That part is true. Pitchers aren't as good as they used to be.

They're better.

Green or Lowrie? There's no debate

One of the oldest baseball adages goes something like this: No matter how you start the season, if you're a .300 hitter, by the end of the season, you're going to hit .300. No matter how you start the season, if you're a .250 hitter, by the end of the season, you're going to hit .250. That's just the way it goes.

Nick Green came into this season as a .240 hitter with a .656 OPS in 799 major-league plate appearances. He's a .240 hitter. Maybe he's a .250 hitter. But that's it.

He hit .275 in April and hit .321 in May. His batting average, at that point, was .298. His OPS -- on-base plus slugging -- was .783.

But, as we might have expected, he's regressing to the mean. He's 20 for 106 (.189) since June 1, and his OPS has slowly dwindled:

May: .784
June: .698
July (so far): .580

He has six hits in his last 45 at-bats (.133) with a .264 on-base percentage -- and his on-base percentage is only that high because he faced Bruce Chen and Robinson Tejeda on Sunday. (When a pitcher goes 0 for his first 13 in trying to throw strikes to Jason Bay, you have to take Green's three walks, a career high, with a grain of salt.)

Green's overall numbers, thanks to his hot start, still don't look terrible: He's hitting over .250 and OPS'ing over .700. That's led many to believe there's a debate afoot: Who's going to play shortstop full-time upon Jed Lowrie's return?

Green remains a valuable asset as an infielder. He can play at least three positions and has seen his defense at shortstop improve by leaps and bounds since a rough start to the season. (His UZR/150 was minus-16.6 in early June but is now plus-12.2, and he's gone more than a month without making an error.)

But Lowrie can hold his own defensively. A year ago, in fact, he had an UZR/150 of plus-24.6 and made zero errors in 49 games at shortstop. He's also a better hitter when he's healthy -- even with the wrist injury that plagued him last year, he put up better numbers (.739 OPS) than Green has this season (.721 OPS).

Green will allow the Red Sox to work Lowrie back slowly, but there's no question who should be starting the majority of games at shortstop at Fenway Park.

Red Sox starters all to get a week off

Clay Buchholz will make a spot start for the Red Sox on Friday in Toronto, his first major-league start of the season. Some will argue -- and they might be right -- that the Red Sox are showcasing Buchholz for potential trade partners, including the Blue Jays.

But it does keep the team's rotation in order as well. Here's how everything is set to line up coming out of the All-Star break:

Tuesday: Beckett/Wakefield
Wednesday: Off
Thursday: Off
Friday: Buchholz (regular rest)
Saturday: Penny (eight days' rest)
Sunday: Lester (eight days' rest)
Monday: Smoltz (eight days' rest)
Tuesday: Beckett (six days' rest)
Wednesday: Wakefield (seven days' rest)

Beckett, if he appears in the All-Star Game is the only one who doesn't get something of a break in this whole arrangement. He'll pitch an inning in St. Louis on one day's rest -- not a huge deal considering he normally throws his bullpen session on one day's rest -- and then only get a couple of days more than normal before he pitches again.

The Red Sox could have given each guy seven days' rest and had either Beckett or Wakefield pitch on five days' rest on Tuesday in Texas.

The temporary insertion of Buchholz into the rotation, though, ensures that everyone will come out of the break pitching on extra rest. That might mean a sharp week of starting pitching. Consider the Red Sox starting pitchers' career numbers when pitching on six or more days' of rest:

Beckett: 2.75 ERA in 31 starts
Smoltz: 2.96 ERA in 48 starts
Penny: 3.17 ERA in 34 starts
Wakefield: 4.08 ERA in 51 starts
Lester: 4.55 ERA in 11 starts

Lester is the only one with subpar numbers after an extended break -- but he also threw 7 1/3 shutout innings at Seattle on 12 days' rest following last season's All-Star break. If you're worried about Lester at this point in the season, you're in a lonely club.

Bates makes most of big-league stint

Aaron Bates will spend the next couple of days in Kennebunkport, Maine, taking a breather with his girlfriend and getting a chance to reflect on his whirlwind week in the major leagues -- a week he couldn't have capped any better than he did on Sunday.

Bates singled and doubled twice against Kansas City on Sunday, collecting as many hits as the Royals' entire offense did against Josh Beckett. It helped that Bates had hit against Kansas City starting pitcher Bruce Chen in Puerto Rico over the winter; he doubled to left field in the second inning and doubled to center field to knock Chen from the game in the fourth.

"He's got good stuff," Bates said. "You just try to get a good pitch up in the zone and put a good swing on it."

Bates' two doubles actually came on offspeed pitches -- he yanked a changeup away into the left-field corner and then squared up a curveball and launched it off the center-field fence.

"He certainly is a strong kid, and he's got some pull power," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said. "You could tell he felt good about himself today. He hits the ball to center, hits two balls to right, pulls a ball down the left-field line -- when you use the whole field and you hit the ball square like that, you're feeling pretty good."

The slick-fielding first baseman almost certainly will be shipped back to Triple-A Pawtucket in order to make room for Clay Buchholz on Friday -- the highly touted prospect will make a spot start in Toronto, Francona said, to keep the rotation in order coming out of the All-Star break -- before third baseman Mike Lowell is activated from the disabled list on Saturday.

He'd gone hitless in his first six at-bats in the major leagues, striking out four times. He then collected his first major-league hit on Saturday and followed that up with three hits Sunday -- and he'll leave with a .364 batting average to his credit.

But his four hits aren't going to be what he remembers most about his cup of coffee in the major leagues.

"I've been fortunate to be around some of the best players in the game," he said. "You've got six All-Stars on this team. You just try and learn as much as you can, be a sponge. These guys know what it takes to get ready to play every day. They know their bodies, and they know what they have to do. That's what you've got to look at as far as that goes -- the routines they do every day to get ready to play. I tried to pick some guys' brains about at the plate, what they're thinking, and (Dave Magadan), our hitting coach, has been great with me. Sometimes I think I'm asking too many questions because I'm just trying to learn as much as I can while I'm here."

Said Magadan, "He asks all the right questions, gets all his work done and wasn't intimidated at all."

Red Sox owner John Henry stuck his head into the Red Sox locker room to offer his congratulations while Bates was chatting with reporters. He wasn't the only one impressed.

"Especially as a young guy, it's nice to see him get going," All-Star left fielder Jason Bay said. "He came up here for a reason. He can hit."

Lester still in elite company

We looked earlier this season -- way earlier, like when he still had a 5.11 ERA -- at how strikeout ratios and strikeout-to-walk ratios indicated Jon Lester was in line for better days. There were nine pitchers with more than a strikeout per inning and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.0 or better: Lester, Zack Grienke, Johan Santana, Dan Haren, Erik Bedard, Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez, Javier Vazquez and Justin Verlander.

Now? That group has dwindled to five:

* Grienke (2.12 ERA)
* Lester (3.87 ERA)
* Lincecum (2.33 ERA)
* Vazquez (2.95 ERA)
* Verlander (3.59 ERA)

Lester still has the highest ERA of the group. But there aren't many who doubt his ERA is bound to keep falling. There's no question now that Lester is one of the premier pitchers -- and not just one of the premier lefthanders -- in the major leagues.

Red Sox pitchers are throwing too many pitches

When Ramon Ramirez was pulled from Thursday night's game against Kansas City, he'd thrown 40 pitches in 1 2/3 innings -- his highest pitch total in any big-league appearance in almost three years.

But he wasn't the only one throwing too many pitches. The entire Red Sox staff -- Ramirez along with Brad Penny, Manny Delcarmen, Justin Masterson and Daniel Bard -- threw 184 pitches in Thursday's loss, an average of more than 20 pitches per inning.

It was the ninth time Red Sox pitchers have thrown more than 180 pitches in a game -- and it was a stark contrast to, say, Josh Beckett's 94-pitch complete-game shutout in late June.

All season long, Red Sox pitchers have thrown too many pitches. Entering play Saturday, in fact, the Red Sox and the Marlins were the only teams to have seen its pitchers throw more than 13,000 pitches this season -- and the Red Sox and the Phillies were the only teams to have seen its pitchers average more than 17 pitches per inning. Here's the pitch-per-inning leaderboard:

1. Phillies, 17.18
2. Red Sox, 17.15
3. Orioles, 16.96
4. Indians, 16.93
5. Nationals, 16.91
6. Cubs, 16.84
7. Yankees, 16.83
8. Mets, 16.82
9. Athletics, 16.81
10. Brewers, 16.79

(You don't need me to tell you that six of those 10 teams have sub-.500 records and that four of them are in last place.)

Relievers have a tendency to throw more pitches per inning than starters, but the vaunted Red Sox bulpen is taking that to an extreme, too. Only the Cubs (18.46) and Nationals (17.9) -- again, that's not exactly company you want to keep -- are averaging more pitches per inning out of the bullpen than the Red Sox (17.85).

And no team in baseball has seen its relievers average more pitches per batter faced than the Red Sox. Here's the Top 10:

t-1. Red Sox, 4.13
t-1. Cubs, 4.13
3. Phillies, 4.01
4. Mariners, 4.01
5. Yankees, 4.00
6. Giants, 3.97
7. Rangers, 3.96
8. Athletics, 3.95
9. Royals, 3.94
10. Tigers, 3.94

Terry Francona has made it his mission to manage his bullpen carefully, to limit the number of innings his relievers throw and even to pay careful attention to how often he has them up and warming in games in which they don't pitch.

But if his relievers aren't going to be more efficient with their pitches, there's not much more he can do.

Listening and not listening

J.P. Ricciardi set off a firestorm of conversation throughout the baseball world when he told FoxSports' Ken Rosenthal he was open to "listening" to offers for ace pitcher Roy Halladay. Talking heads and tapping fingers all over the country began trying to piece together offers that would give their favorite team a chance to land perhaps baseball's best pitcher.

The news, of course, wasn't that Ricciardi suddenly was listening. Ricciardi always is listening. If he ever hung up the phone simply because another general manager wanted to talk about Halladay, he wouldn't be doing his job as a general manager. Had Twins general manager Bill Smith called this winter and offered Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, Ricciardi would have made that trade in about two seconds flat.

Every team has a player or two around whom they're hoping to build, but the level of "We're not going to listen" varies wildly from team to team. Here's a look at the player on each of the other 29 teams who would be least likely to be traded ranked by just how unlikely it would be:

No, really, we're not listening
1. Albert Pujols, Cardinals
Pujols is the St. Louis franchise. He's also the best player in the game. The Texas Rangers could offer their 25-man roster to the Cardinals for Pujols and John Mozeliak probably wouldn't do it. In fact, that's how you can decide if a player truly is untouchable. Just ask the question: "Would you trade him straight up for Pujols?" The answer to that question, in 100 percent of cases, is, "Yes."

2. Zack Greinke, Royals
3. Matt Wieters, Orioles
We can lump these two together because a trade of either would send the following message to fans: We don't really care about our franchise. Greinke is the only ray of light to come out of Kansas City in years, and Wieters once hit a home run into McCovey Cove in San Francisco -- from Baltimore. (That may or may not actually be true.) An opposing general manager would have to shout really fast -- "WewantWietersand we'llgiveyouDavidWrightand JoseReyesforhim!" -- to get either Mike Flanagan or Dayton Moore not to hang up the phone. Wieters and Greinke give fans a reason to be optimistic about two teams that haven't given much reason for optimism lately.

4. Tim Lincecum, Giants
Just think: Lincecum and Barry Zito, together, are being paid $19.15 million this year. One of the two has a 2.33 ERA and 149 strikeouts. The other is making $18.5 million.

5. Evan Longoria, Rays
He's already one of the best players in the game, and he's not yet 24 years old. If the Rays have their way, he'll be hitting home runs in the playoffs for years to come.

6. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
Not only is he extraordinarily talented and extraordinarily affordable, but he's a San Diego native and is almost universally beloved in his home city.

7. Grady Sizemore, Indians
If the Indians were to trade Cliff Lee or Victor Martinez, they'd be announcing to their fans that they've given up on the 2010 season. If they were to trade Sizemore, they'd be announcing to their fans that they've given up, period.

8. Joe Mauer, Twins
Only this low because he's set to be a free agent in two years, so a handful of Twins fans would understand the rationale. He otherwise is to Minnesota what Gonzalez is to San Diego.

9. Tommy Hanson, Braves
If you're the reason the Braves burned bridges with Tom Glavine, well, you're going stick around for a while.

10. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks have never really had a franchise player. (No, Luis Gonzalez doesn't count.) Upton will be -- or already is -- their first.

11. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
This means you, Red Sox fans who think you can get him back.

12. Chase Utley, Phillies
The best second baseman in the game, the only reason Ruben Amaro would even think about making a deal would be to clear the $60 million he's owed from 2010-13 off the books.

13. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates
Neal Huntington has shown a willingness to deal anyone and everyone, but you can't claim you're building toward the future if you trade away McCutchen.

14. Josh Hamilton, Rangers
The Rangers gave Hamilton his second chance a couple of years ago, and it's paid off big-time. It would almost seem heartless to trade the guy now.

15. Ryan Braun, Brewers
Not only is he one of the best young hitters in the game, but he's not even due $10 million a year in salary until 2014.

You can leave a message if you want
16. Derek Jeter, Yankees
He's getting old and still has no defensive range, but imagine the riots in the Bronx if Jeter ever was traded.

17. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
He's another aging face of an organization due quite a bit of money over the next few years. (He's owed $17 million every year until 2012, to be precise.) It wouldn't be a bad thing for the Mariners to pick up some pitching prospects and then spend Ichiro's money on a free agent like Jason Bay. But it's also clear that they've staked their future on Ichiro, and a deal like that would be a tough sell to the team's Pacific Northwest -- and Japanese -- fan base.

18. Manny Ramirez, Dodgers
It's not like any other team is beating down Ned Colletti's door to deal for Ramirez, anyway, but the Dodgers have invested so much in Ramirez over the last 11 months that they'd be insane to ship him out for anything less than an overwhelming haul of young players.

19. Oliver Perez, Mets
Wait, no, that's not right.

19. David Wright, Mets
The Mets might be in bad shape now, but there's still a core in place to compete. David Wright is New York's next Jeter.

20. Jon Lester, Red Sox
It's a testament to Theo Epstein that the Red Sox don't have to stake themselves to any one young player going forward. They'd rather not trade Lester -- or Dustin Pedroia or Kevin Youkilis, for that matter -- but if the Marlins offered Ramirez, they'd at least think about it.

21. Justin Verlander, Tigers
It's no coincidence that Verlander is to the Tigers what Lester is to the Red Sox -- a staff ace and a strikeout machine.

22. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
He's the only thing resembling a franchise player on that roster, but he's still only the third-best third baseman in his division. (From the AP story about his All-Star selection: "The only statistical category in which Zimmerman leads the Nationals are doubles (22) and errors (12)."

We have no reason at all not to listen
23. Brett Anderson, Athletics
Like the Red Sox with Lester, the Athletics would be loath to trade a pitcher who might already be their staff ace. But with so many holes all over the field, if Anderson could fetch a package of big-league-ready talent, Billy Beane would do it.

24. Jay Bruce, Reds
He's a budding star, but if the Reds could get overwhelmed with an offer, you'd think they'd be willing to consider it.

25. Carlos Quentin, White Sox
You also might be selling high on last season's 36 home runs if you could get a top-of-the-rotation starter in exchange for him.

26. Jered Weaver, Angels
He should have been an All-Star this year, but he's still the type of young pitcher who's eminently replaceable if someone comes along with the right deal. If the Blue Jays called and offered Halladay straight up for Weaver, you'd think the Angels would have to jump at that deal.

27. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
It's not much of a reach to take the stance that Tulowitzki peaked two years ago and might never again have the trade value he has now. If someone offered a front-line starting pitcher, the Rockies would have to make that deal.

28. Geovany Soto, Cubs
It's not easy to find a young catcher who burst onto the scene quite like Soto did a year ago, but he's regressed badly in his sophomore season and just landed on the disabled list with an oblique strain.

29. Roy Oswalt, Astros
Drayton McLane has refused to sign off on any deal that includes his team's 32-year-old ace, but that's probably not a good stance to take. Oswalt is owed big money over the next three seasons -- $15 million in 2010, $16 million in 2011 and either $16 million or a $2 million option in 2012 -- but the Astros have gone pretty much nowhere with him at the top of their pitching staff. If someone offered the type of package Ricciardi wants for Halladay, the Astros would be making a mistake not to think long and hard about taking it.

Bard has a chance to do what Masterson did

Daniel Bard and Terry Francona sat down to chat a couple of days ago about the role Bard has filled and will fill in the Red Sox bullpen. No longer a candidate to be sent back to Pawtucket -- he likely would have been a casualty had Daisuke Matsuzaka remained healthy -- Bard has looked more and more impressive the more opportunities he's had.

The rookie looked particularly impressive on Thursday in the aftermath of the disastrous sixth inning turned in by Manny Delcarmen and Justin Masterson. By the time Bard got a chance to pitch, it was 8-5 and the Royals were threatening again. A runner was on third with two outs thanks to an RBI triple surrendered by Ramon Ramirez.

Bard needed just three pitches -- a fastball, a fastball and a nasty slider -- to fan Billy Butler and get out of the eighth inning. He then fanned Jose Guillen and Mark Teahen to open the top of the ninth before getting Mike Jacobs to hit a weak fly ball to second base to retire the side.

"I thought Bard was tremendous," Francona said.

Bard, in large part due to his inexperience, remains one of the last options in the bullpen. He was up and throwing when starter Brad Penny ran into trouble in the fourth inning -- when the Red Sox still led by a 4-0 score -- but sat down and had to watch as Manny Delcarmen, Justin Masterson and Ramon Ramirez all were summoned into the game before he was.

If Hideki Okajima hadn't pitched in back-to-back games on Tuesday and Wednesday, he'd have been in there, too.

Bard knows where he stands. Francona laid it out for him.

"He said, 'You don't have a role,'" Bard said. "He goes, 'That's the one thing you give us: A lot of flexibility. If it's you and Oki both available and we need someone to throw the eighth inning, it's going to be Oki because he's experienced right now.' I'm totally behind that 100 percent. That's what's best for the team.

"Whatever my role is that night, I'm going to try to be the best at it that I can. Times will come where I need to throw those higher-leverage innings, and I'll try to be as prepared as I can when it happens."

As patient as Francona always will be with his pitchers -- he teased one veteran writer before Thursday's game about how quickly he was to try to run Okajima out of town last season -- he's not unwilling to give some innings to his youngsters, either.

It was less than a year ago, after all, that Masterson was doing exactly what Bard is doing now. The Red Sox had recalled the sinkerballer from Triple-A in late July and gave him a chance to get his feet wet in low-leverage spots. Each of his first 11 appearances came when the Red Sox either were losing or were winning by four or more runs. He'd been in the major leagues for almost a month before he had a chance to preserve a two-run lead in the late innings.

But by the time the playoffs rolled around, he might have been Francona's favorite righthanded reliever. He made more appearances (four) than any other reliever in the ALDS and made more appearances (five) than any other reliever except Okajima in the ALCS. He earned those appearances, too: He had a 2.13 ERA in September and a 1.86 ERA in his nine appearances in the postseason.

No one ever gave him an indication he was being promoted in any way. He just started getting the call in more and more big spots -- and he just kept on getting key outs.

"It just happened," he said with a grin. "You find yourself, all of a sudden, with a few good outings -- and there you are in situations. If you show the ability to be calm and show competence in those situations, you'll be OK."

Bard, of course, has visions of earning the same type of trust that his longtime buddy -- the two pitched on Cape Cod together four years ago -- earned a year ago.

He scuffled in Washington on June 25 but hasn't allowed a base-runner in the 5 1/3 innings he's pitched since, striking out 10 hitters in the process. He looked almost untouchable in two perfect innings against Baltimore on July 1 and looked equally dominant against the Royals on Thursday night.

At this point, that's all he can do.

"You just continue to do your stuff -- execute and perform," Masterson said. "You can't really worry about what's going on. Every time you go, try and pitch well. That's what he's been doing -- and, over time, you gain faith and get in those situations. We have a strong bullpen, so as we go on, everyone's going to get time and everyone's going to be needed."

Said Bard, "If you come in and throw strikes, that's the biggest thing. If you throw strikes and keep the ball down, you'll become a guy they can rely on. That's the position I'm trying to work my way into right now."

Red Sox again to miss top starter

Zack Greinke allowed three earned runs in six innings on Wednesday night, taking his fifth loss of the season. He gave up a couple of early runs and wasn't helped when his left fielder threw a rainbow back to the infield that allowed a key runner to take second base. He also wasn't helped by an offense that couldn't seem to solve a rookie named Luke French, scoring just one run in the 6 1/3 innings in which the soft-tossing lefty was in the game.

All that, though, isn't something the Red Sox are too worried about. Greinke could have pitched a one-hit shutout on Wednesday and it wouldn't have made any difference.

What matters is that Greinke won't pitch at Fenway Park this week -- and, thus, the Red Sox streak of missing some of the best pitchers in the major leagues will continue. Out of the top five starting pitchers in the American League, in fact, the Red Sox have faced just one:

Greinke (10-5, 2.12 ERA, 203 ERA+)
The odds-on favorite to start next week's All-Star Game pitched Wednesday night and will not pitch again until he shows up in St. Louis. That means he'll miss the only series the Royals play at Fenway Park this season. The Red Sox will travel to Kansas City in late September for four games that, given how tight the American League East suddenly looks, could loom large.

Edwin Jackson, Detroit (6-4, 2.59 ERA, 173 ERA+)
When the Red Sox traveled to Detroit in early May, they beat rookie Rick Porcello (4.14 ERA), Armando Galarraga (5.03 ERA) and Dontrelle Willis (7.49 ERA) and missed Jackson as well as American League strikeout leader Justin Verlander (3.59 ERA). Incredible.

The Tigers play four games at Fenway Park in mid-August. Wouldn't it be something to see Verlander match up against Josh Beckett or Jon Lester?

Felix Hernandez, Seattle (8-3, 2.62 ERA, 162 ERA+)
King Felix threw seven strong innings (three earned runs, seven hits, seven strikeouts, three walks) at Fenway Park on July 3, but Nick Green hit a two-run double off reliever Shawn Kelley in the bottom of the eighth inning to send the game to extra innings. The Mariners won in the 11th inning.

When the Red Sox played the Mariners in Seattle, though, they missed out on Hernandez. They instead faced Chris Jakubauskas, Garrett Olson and Justin Vargas -- and they still lost two out of three.

Roy Halladay, Toronto (10-2, 2.79 ERA, 154 ERA+)
This one has to be unbelievably frustrating for Cito Gaston and the Blue Jays. Five different pitchers have started their six games against the Red Sox and not one has been Halladay. As a group, they have a 4.94 ERA in those starts. Halladay, meanwhile, had a 2.56 ERA and a 24-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in five starts against the Red Sox a year ago.

(Maybe that's karma. The Red Sox had to face Halladay five times last season. That's not really fair, either.)

You have to believe Halladay will get a crack at the Red Sox, though, when the two teams meet immediately following the All-Star break.

Mark Buehrle, Chicago (9-2, 3.14 ERA, 147 ERA+)
The Red Sox have not yet played the White Sox. They won't play the White Sox, in fact, until a home-and-home scheduled for the last week of August and the first week of September.

Maybe, by then, Buehrle will have retired.

Selling the farm for Halladay

The two early favorites in the Roy Halladay derby appear to be the Red Sox and Phillies. It should take about two seconds to figure out what those teams have in common -- and, thus, why neither should be all that anxious to swap the top three or four prospects in their farm system for Halladay.

The goal of every major-league front office is to win the World Series. Once you've won the World Series, though, that's when things get a little bit fuzzy. Some fans -- particularly fans in cities like Boston and New York -- expect a championship every year. Other fans would rather see a team that's in contention every year and not experience the roller coaster best exemplified by the Florida Marlins between 1997 and 2003.

That's what Theo Epstein has to think about right now.

Roy Halladay might be the best pitcher in baseball -- and if he's not the best, he's one of the top three or four. But he's under contract for $14.25 million this year and $15.75 million next year, and he's a free agent after that. He might demand an extension as part of any trade -- he has a no-trade clause he's willing to waive -- but, then again, he might be happy to sell his services on the open market.

To acquire Halladay, however, J.P. Ricciardi has said, will take a truckload of top prospects.

"It would take a lot for us to part with him," Ricciardi told the Globe. "We've gotten a lot of calls from teams but none of them are telling us at this point what they're willing to give up. If you're coming at us with a 'B' list of young players, don't bother. This is one of the five best players in baseball. It's going to take a significant package of players for us to even listen. So as the teams call we'll go through the ones we feel are the serious ones and then we'll start scouting their farm systems to see if there's anything we can do."

For the Red Sox, that starts with Clay Buchholz and probably includes pieces like Lars Anderson, Michael Bowden, Casey Kelly, Justin Masterson and/or Josh Reddick. For the Phillies, you're talking about a similar treasure chest -- including future ace Kyle Drabek, a first-round pick out of high school three years ago who has a 2.70 ERA in his first 46 2/3 innings at Double-A.

The Red Sox have an impressive foundation of young talent: Jon Lester, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis all are locked up at affordable money through 2012 or beyond. But those three alone aren't going to be enough to keep the Red Sox in contention -- just ask the Twins about trying to get to the World Series with two star position players and one lefthanded pitcher.

By trading Buchholz and friends for Halladay right now, the Red Sox would assert themselves as the clear favorites to win the World Series this season. The postseason pitching rotation of Beckett-Halladay-Lester would match Maddux-Smoltz-Glavine in its prime. It would be awe-inspiring to watch.

And, a year after that, Halladay could be gone. So, too, would be much of the minor-league foundation Epstein has worked so hard to build.

That's the risk you take. The Red Sox will have Buchholz under their control for five more seasons once he makes it back to the major leagues. They'll have Anderson, Bowden, Kelly and Reddick under their control for six seasons once they make it. They'll also have the opportunity to work out Pedroia- and Youkilis-esque extensions with all of them in the meantime.

If Halladay doesn't demand a lucrative extension -- he'd be right to ask for CC Sabathia money -- upon being traded, he'd likely pocket the $15-plus million due him next season and hit the free-agent market. Can you guess how much the Yankees would spend to get Halladay into their rotation?

When the Red Sox traded for Jason Bay, they knew they'd risk losing him if they didn't lock him up to a long-term deal right away. The Yankees have deep pockets and a need in left field, and they're likely going to throw far more money at Bay than he can turn down.

But the Red Sox didn't have to trade prospects for Bay. They traded Manny Ramirez. Nothing about the trade for Bay -- unless you still had high hopes for Brandon Moss -- affected the Red Sox's plans for 2010 or beyond.

Halladay, though, could leave after the 2010 season. So, too, could ace Josh Beckett. So, too, could slugger David Ortiz. Catcher Jason Varitek and third baseman Mike Lowell could retire. Closer Jonathan Papelbon could be a year away from landing a big-money contract elsewhere, too.

The Red Sox have poured the resources into the draft with an eye on replacing that big-league talent. Buchholz is a potential ace. Bowden is a middle-of-the-rotation guy. Reddick is an impact outfielder. Anderson is a slugging first baseman. At least three of those four would have to be dealt to Toronto in any deal for Halladay.

It all comes down to fundamental philosophy. Without Roy Halladay, the Red Sox are in position to be in contention for a division title every year for at least the next five or six years. With Roy Halladay, the Red Sox would be in position to win the World Series this season but would risk becoming a middle-of-the-pack team over the next five or six years.

Lowrie healthy, just needs at-bats

In case you're wondering why the heck Jed Lowrie isn't back yet: His wrist appears to be fine and his knee is mostly healed from the pitch that hit him a couple of weeks ago. The key now is getting at-bats. He tried to play at Triple-A Pawtucket and was rained out on back-to-back nights.

He was activated today from the 60-day disabled list and optioned to Single-A Lowell -- his call-up, though, will depend less on his health than on how his swing feels.

After playing for Double-A Portland and going 3-for-5 with a double on Monday, he left the SeaDogs to join Single-A Lowell to have a better chance at playing today. He then doubled in the bottom of the first.