A year ago, Jonathan Papelbon walked eight hitters in 69 1/3 innings.
So far this year, he's walked nine hitters in 16 innings.
He's walked at least one hitter in four of his last six outings; he's walked seven hitters in his last 9 2/3 innings.
"It's not an issue," said Terry Francona, a manager who would rather plead the fifth than blast his players in public, said this week on WEEI. "It's a little bit more than he has in the past. I think when you look up at the end of the year, I don't think there are going to be a whole heck of a lot more than they were the year before.
"At times, he's been up in the strike zone, and the thing he hasn't gotten yet is his split. He's bounced his split, and when he's ahead in the count, that's good, because he'll probably get a swing, but he hasn't gotten that split yet where he can get a strike called, which really makes him nasty. As you see, he's still got that unbelievable fastball, he's getting the strikeouts, he's competing and he's getting all his saves, he's just really having to work hard. When he starts commanding the split and everything falls into sync, you'll see him take off."
But is it his split?
Papelbon has never been a pitcher who relied primarily on his split -- and his percentage of splitfingers thrown actually has dropped dramatically since he became the Red Sox closer. In 2006, he threw splits 19.7 percent of the time. In 2008, it was 12.6 percent of the time. So far this year, it's 11.2 percent of the time.
What he's done so far this season, according to Fangraphs, is mix in more sliders. He's actually backed off a little on the fastball -- his percentage of fastballs thrown had jumped from 73.5 percent in 2006 to 81.2 percent in 2008, but it's back down to 79.7 percent so far this season. He's throwing more sliders this season, though, than he has since he was a starting pitcher.
It's even more extreme when you look at his walks. Of the 55 pitches he's thrown in his nine walks, 41 have been fastballs -- just 74.5 percent, well below his range of a year ago.
Observers all winter remarked upon Papelbon's rising percentage of fastballs and wondered if there was any correlation between that and his rising ERA (from 0.92 in 2006 to 2.34 in 2008). Papelbon might have wondered the same thing -- and that might be why he added the slider to his repetoire.
"There's so many situations (in 2008) where I'm out there and I'm saying, 'God, if I had the slider, he'd be done,'" he told reporters in spring training.
The slider is all well and good. Command of the splitfinger, the culprit to which Francona pointed, is great, too.
But when you can throw heat the way Papelbon throws heat, it's possible to overanalyze what you're doing. His tremendous success in his first two seasons can be attributed, in part, to an opponents' BAPIP of .226 in 2006 and .216 in 2007; opponents' BAPIP jumped to .300 in 2008.
Maybe the fastball wasn't the issue a year ago. Maybe he just ran into some bad luck. And maybe, to stop giving away free passes, he needs to stop messing around and throw more fastballs.
Friday, May 15, 2009
Ortiz not alone in struggles
He's a lefthanded hitter who, for much of the season, has dragged down the heart of the Red Sox order. He's normally a .280 hitter but is hitting well below that this season. He's hitting just .190, in fact, since April 22, and he has just four hits in his last 28 at-bats (.143) .
He's walked 19 times, but he's struck out 32 times -- second on the team to Jason Bay. He's hit his share of doubles and even a triple, but he's got fewer than half the RBIs Bay has so far this season.
He's also got five home runs so far this season.
Oh, yeah. This isn't about David Ortiz.
Big Papi will get the Friday morning headlines -- and, in many ways, for good reason. It was Ortiz who went 0-for-7 against the Angels on Thursday; it was Ortiz who left a record-tying 12 men on base as the Red Sox missed an opportunity to win a big series on the road.
But J.D. Drew had two early chances to drive home runners and failed to do so. After Mike Lowell doubled to lead off the second inning, Drew worked Ervin Santana into a 3-0 hole but proceeded to strike out on the next three pitches. With one out and Bay on second base in the fifth inning, Drew flew to left.
Drew, like Ortiz, has had a miserable time of things lately. He was hitting .310 after the front end of a day-night doublehead against Minnesota on April 22, but he's hitting below the Mendoza Line since then. He has five 0-fers in his last eight games. His batting average for the season, right now, is .238.
And while you can point to Drew's .360 on-base percentage, don't forget this: Even Ortiz, for all of his troubles, is OBP'ing .315. Big Papi, in fact, has more walks (20) than Drew (19) -- and he has fewer strikeouts (30) than Drew (32), too.
(For what it's worth, Ortiz and Drew are almost precisely the same age. Ortiz was born two days before Drew in November of 1975.)
That's not to say that Drew is on an Ortiz-type decline, of course. Drew has hit the ball hard all season long and has the athleticism to stay productive into his mid-30s or later.
But as the cries for Terry Francona to drop Ortiz in the batting order grow louder, it's worth stepping back to ask the key question: With whom would you replace him?
Drew is struggling mightily. Kevin Youkilis is on the disabled list. Jason Bay is more of a cleanup hitter than a No. 3 hitter. Mike Lowell has had a nice start but isn't that type of player anymore.
The opportunity for Francona to shake up his lineup might present itself when Youkilis is activated from the disabled list. You may very well see a lineup that looks like this:
Ellsbury, CF (L)
Pedroia, 2B (R)
Youkilis, 1B (R)
Bay, LF (R)
Drew, RF (L)
Lowell, 3B (R)
Ortiz, DH (L)
Varitek, C (S)
Lugo, SS (R)
It would be nice if Francona could break up the righty-righty-righty trio of Pedroia, Youkilis and Bay. But until Drew starts swinging the bat the way he did during the first couple of weeks in the season, Francona is running a little bit low on options.
He's walked 19 times, but he's struck out 32 times -- second on the team to Jason Bay. He's hit his share of doubles and even a triple, but he's got fewer than half the RBIs Bay has so far this season.
He's also got five home runs so far this season.
Oh, yeah. This isn't about David Ortiz.
Big Papi will get the Friday morning headlines -- and, in many ways, for good reason. It was Ortiz who went 0-for-7 against the Angels on Thursday; it was Ortiz who left a record-tying 12 men on base as the Red Sox missed an opportunity to win a big series on the road.
But J.D. Drew had two early chances to drive home runners and failed to do so. After Mike Lowell doubled to lead off the second inning, Drew worked Ervin Santana into a 3-0 hole but proceeded to strike out on the next three pitches. With one out and Bay on second base in the fifth inning, Drew flew to left.
Drew, like Ortiz, has had a miserable time of things lately. He was hitting .310 after the front end of a day-night doublehead against Minnesota on April 22, but he's hitting below the Mendoza Line since then. He has five 0-fers in his last eight games. His batting average for the season, right now, is .238.
And while you can point to Drew's .360 on-base percentage, don't forget this: Even Ortiz, for all of his troubles, is OBP'ing .315. Big Papi, in fact, has more walks (20) than Drew (19) -- and he has fewer strikeouts (30) than Drew (32), too.
(For what it's worth, Ortiz and Drew are almost precisely the same age. Ortiz was born two days before Drew in November of 1975.)
That's not to say that Drew is on an Ortiz-type decline, of course. Drew has hit the ball hard all season long and has the athleticism to stay productive into his mid-30s or later.
But as the cries for Terry Francona to drop Ortiz in the batting order grow louder, it's worth stepping back to ask the key question: With whom would you replace him?
Drew is struggling mightily. Kevin Youkilis is on the disabled list. Jason Bay is more of a cleanup hitter than a No. 3 hitter. Mike Lowell has had a nice start but isn't that type of player anymore.
The opportunity for Francona to shake up his lineup might present itself when Youkilis is activated from the disabled list. You may very well see a lineup that looks like this:
Ellsbury, CF (L)
Pedroia, 2B (R)
Youkilis, 1B (R)
Bay, LF (R)
Drew, RF (L)
Lowell, 3B (R)
Ortiz, DH (L)
Varitek, C (S)
Lugo, SS (R)
It would be nice if Francona could break up the righty-righty-righty trio of Pedroia, Youkilis and Bay. But until Drew starts swinging the bat the way he did during the first couple of weeks in the season, Francona is running a little bit low on options.
Thursday, May 14, 2009
Bard makes his debut
It's time for some full disclosure: I've been a Daniel Bard guy since way back in the day.
But did you see what Bard did to Mike Napoli with the first three pitches of his big-league career? Wow.
But did you see what Bard did to Mike Napoli with the first three pitches of his big-league career? Wow.
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
The Jays haven't played anyone
Here's a little perspective on the first-place Toronto Blue Jays, whose loss tonight was just their fourth of the month of May:
The most common criticism of Cito Gaston's charges so far has been that they haven't played anyone. The consensus around these parts is that they're going to get their Mounties handed to them once they have to play against the Red Sox and Yankees and Rays.
That might still be true. Before the games scheduled today, the Blue Jays had played teams with a record of .500 or better only 13 times (out of 35 games).
The Red Sox, on the other hand?
Four times.
That's right: Four times.
That's by far the lowest number in baseball; the Rangers are second-to-last on the list, and they've played .500 teams nine times.
Other than the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (and Hollywood and Parts of Southern Idaho), the Red Sox haven't played a single team with a .500 record so far this season.
(And if you think other teams are below .500 just because the Red Sox are beating them, consider this: The Rays are 6-3 against the Red Sox and 9-16 against everyone else.)
Maybe the Jays haven't played anyone. But maybe they're not the only ones.
The most common criticism of Cito Gaston's charges so far has been that they haven't played anyone. The consensus around these parts is that they're going to get their Mounties handed to them once they have to play against the Red Sox and Yankees and Rays.
That might still be true. Before the games scheduled today, the Blue Jays had played teams with a record of .500 or better only 13 times (out of 35 games).
The Red Sox, on the other hand?
Four times.
That's right: Four times.
That's by far the lowest number in baseball; the Rangers are second-to-last on the list, and they've played .500 teams nine times.
Other than the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (and Hollywood and Parts of Southern Idaho), the Red Sox haven't played a single team with a .500 record so far this season.
(And if you think other teams are below .500 just because the Red Sox are beating them, consider this: The Rays are 6-3 against the Red Sox and 9-16 against everyone else.)
Maybe the Jays haven't played anyone. But maybe they're not the only ones.
You can't ever be satisfied with your pitching
Last weekend's Dustin Pedroia story in the Union Leader sparked some thoughts about the Baltimore Orioles -- and some thoughts about how a World Series team became an also-ran for almost a decade because its pitching staff didn't perform as expected.
Pedroia last year became the first Rookie of the Year to win Most Valuable Player honors the following season since Cal Ripken in 1982 and 1983. (Don't look now, but Evan Longoria has an inside track on replicating the feat this season.)
Like Pedroia, Ripken was a young cornerstone of a World Series winner -- the Red Sox won the World Series during Pedroia's Rookie of the Year season, and the Orioles won the World Series during Ripken's Most Valuable Player season.
The real strength of that Orioles team, though, was its pitching staff. Only the Rangers -- no, really, the Rangers -- had a better staff ERA in the American League than the Orioles' 3.64 ERA that season; no team had more shutouts than the Orioles' 15.
Among the pitchers on that staff:
* Mike Boddicker, 25 years old, 2.77 ERA
* Scott McGregor, 29 years old, 3.18 ERA
* Mike Flanagan, 31 years old, 3.30 ERA
* Storm Davis, 21 years old, 3.59 ERA
That, along with a lineup that included a 22-year-old Ripken and a 27-year-old Eddie Murray, looked like it had all the makings of a perennial contender.
Two years later, though, the Orioles were a fourth-place team and just treading water with a middle-of-the-pack ERA of 4.38. What happened? Here's that same starting staff:
* Mike Boddicker, 27 years old, 4.07 ERA
* Scott McGregor, 31 years old, 4.81 ERA
* Mike Flanagan, 33 years old, 5.13 ERA
* Storm Davis, 23 years old, 4.53 ERA
The sensational starting pitching that carried the Orioles to a World Series title had all but fallen apart within two years. Davis is a particularly apt cautionary tale -- eased into the major leagues by way of the bullpen in 1982, he won 13 games with a 3.59 ERA in 1983 and 14 games with a 3.12 ERA in 1984. A year later, though, his ERA jumped by almost a run -- and two years after that, after the Orioles traded him to San Diego and he bounced from around and landed in Oakland, his ERA was 5.23.
Boddicker, meanwhile, saw his ERA climb from 2.79 in 1984 to 4.07 in 1985 to 4.70 in 1986. It wasn't until 1988, the year the Orioles traded him to the Red Sox for Brady Anderson and Curt Schilling, that his ERA once again came in below 4.00.
And Flanagan, a New Hampshire native who won the Cy Young Award in 1979, finished with a sub-4.00 ERA only once after the 1984 season. By the middle of the 1987 season, the Orioles had dealt him to the Blue Jays for someone named Oswaldo Peraza and a player to be named later (who, interestingly, turned out to be a 21-year-old Jose Mesa).
What's the lesson here?
You can't take your pitching for granted.
The Red Sox came into this season with a starting rotation featuring Josh Beckett, John Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield and Brad Penny; all but Wakefield had at one point been or were candidates still to be the ace of a rotation.
So far, though, the group has underachived. Lester and Beckett each have ERAs above 6.00 (despite encouraging strikeout-to-walk numbers), Penny has been even worse, and Matsuzaka has spent much of the season on the disabled list.
Most fans expect Beckett and Lester to turn things around and Matsuzaka to come back strong; most fans expect Penny either to pitch well or to be replaced by Clay Buchholz at some point.
But talent and track record doesn't guarantee anything when it comes to future performance.
The 1983 Orioles looked to be set for a decade with three talented starting pitchers younger than 30 and a former Cy Young Award winner whose 30th birthday wasn't that far behind him. But that fell apart in a hurry, and the Orioles didn't get back to the playoffs again until 1996.
The Red Sox, so far, have stuck with their pitchers -- and given the recent history of (and money invested in) guys like Beckett and Matsuzaka, it makes sense to do that. But if you spend too much time trying to recapture past successes, you're sometimes going to forfeit future ones.
Pedroia last year became the first Rookie of the Year to win Most Valuable Player honors the following season since Cal Ripken in 1982 and 1983. (Don't look now, but Evan Longoria has an inside track on replicating the feat this season.)
Like Pedroia, Ripken was a young cornerstone of a World Series winner -- the Red Sox won the World Series during Pedroia's Rookie of the Year season, and the Orioles won the World Series during Ripken's Most Valuable Player season.
The real strength of that Orioles team, though, was its pitching staff. Only the Rangers -- no, really, the Rangers -- had a better staff ERA in the American League than the Orioles' 3.64 ERA that season; no team had more shutouts than the Orioles' 15.
Among the pitchers on that staff:
* Mike Boddicker, 25 years old, 2.77 ERA
* Scott McGregor, 29 years old, 3.18 ERA
* Mike Flanagan, 31 years old, 3.30 ERA
* Storm Davis, 21 years old, 3.59 ERA
That, along with a lineup that included a 22-year-old Ripken and a 27-year-old Eddie Murray, looked like it had all the makings of a perennial contender.
Two years later, though, the Orioles were a fourth-place team and just treading water with a middle-of-the-pack ERA of 4.38. What happened? Here's that same starting staff:
* Mike Boddicker, 27 years old, 4.07 ERA
* Scott McGregor, 31 years old, 4.81 ERA
* Mike Flanagan, 33 years old, 5.13 ERA
* Storm Davis, 23 years old, 4.53 ERA
The sensational starting pitching that carried the Orioles to a World Series title had all but fallen apart within two years. Davis is a particularly apt cautionary tale -- eased into the major leagues by way of the bullpen in 1982, he won 13 games with a 3.59 ERA in 1983 and 14 games with a 3.12 ERA in 1984. A year later, though, his ERA jumped by almost a run -- and two years after that, after the Orioles traded him to San Diego and he bounced from around and landed in Oakland, his ERA was 5.23.
Boddicker, meanwhile, saw his ERA climb from 2.79 in 1984 to 4.07 in 1985 to 4.70 in 1986. It wasn't until 1988, the year the Orioles traded him to the Red Sox for Brady Anderson and Curt Schilling, that his ERA once again came in below 4.00.
And Flanagan, a New Hampshire native who won the Cy Young Award in 1979, finished with a sub-4.00 ERA only once after the 1984 season. By the middle of the 1987 season, the Orioles had dealt him to the Blue Jays for someone named Oswaldo Peraza and a player to be named later (who, interestingly, turned out to be a 21-year-old Jose Mesa).
What's the lesson here?
You can't take your pitching for granted.
The Red Sox came into this season with a starting rotation featuring Josh Beckett, John Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield and Brad Penny; all but Wakefield had at one point been or were candidates still to be the ace of a rotation.
So far, though, the group has underachived. Lester and Beckett each have ERAs above 6.00 (despite encouraging strikeout-to-walk numbers), Penny has been even worse, and Matsuzaka has spent much of the season on the disabled list.
Most fans expect Beckett and Lester to turn things around and Matsuzaka to come back strong; most fans expect Penny either to pitch well or to be replaced by Clay Buchholz at some point.
But talent and track record doesn't guarantee anything when it comes to future performance.
The 1983 Orioles looked to be set for a decade with three talented starting pitchers younger than 30 and a former Cy Young Award winner whose 30th birthday wasn't that far behind him. But that fell apart in a hurry, and the Orioles didn't get back to the playoffs again until 1996.
The Red Sox, so far, have stuck with their pitchers -- and given the recent history of (and money invested in) guys like Beckett and Matsuzaka, it makes sense to do that. But if you spend too much time trying to recapture past successes, you're sometimes going to forfeit future ones.
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Trading Brad Penny
ESPN's Buster Olney brought up an interesting point in his Monday chat:
Q: I'm really hoping the Mets can poach a starter during the season. Who would be the most likely candidates -- Peavy, Lee?
A: Brad Penny might be a perfect guy, Dave -- the Red Sox might soon be willing to deal him, he'll be relatively inexpensive, and pitching in the NL, he'll be effective. He might not be a Cy Young caliber pitcher right now, but he's decent and might cost the Mets a Grade B prospect or two.
The Mets' rotation features Johan Santana and little else; Oliver Perez recently was placed on the disabled list and will pitch out of the bullpen upon his return, and Livan Hernandez is a year older and a year more ineffective than he was when he was released by the Minnesota Twins last summer. Mike Pelfrey may yet be useful, but his ERA is 5.46 and he has twice as many walks as strikeouts; John Maine's 4.54 ERA is good for second-best on the staff.
Penny, meanwhile, has a 6.90 ERA so far this season but quality starts in four of his six starts. On top of that, unlike Pelfrey and Perez, he actually has more strikeouts than walks so far this season. He hasn't been sensational, but he's been serviceable -- and the Mets, who can't afford to miss the playoffs for a third straight year, would be more than willing to trade a prospect or two for someone serviceable.
If that type of trade goes through -- it wouldn't happen until mid-June, probably -- the low-risk signing of Penny would look even better than it did in the offseason. Consider the laundry list of benefits the Red Sox would reap from the $2 or $3 million they'd end up having spent (assuming the Mets make the trade without money changing hands):
* Penny would have made at least four quality starts -- and while he's due for a hiccup or two, there's no reason to expect that he can't put together a couple more quality starts in May and June;
* Penny would have given John Smoltz a chance to work his way back slowly with no urgency and no real timetable;
* Penny would have given Clay Buchholz a chance to regain his confidence without the pressure of having to pitch against the Yankees and Rays;
* Penny would have yielded a midlevel prospect -- a bullpen arm like Eddie Kunz, if they're lucky, or a young starting pitcher like Scott Moviel -- at a time when young pitchers are like currency. The more young arms you can stockpile, after all, the less money you'll have to spend on pitchers on the free-agent market. ("The price of bullpen arms has kind of gone crazy," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said over the weekend.)
That's a pretty good return on that investment.
The Red Sox will hang onto Penny for as long as they can -- to give Smoltz a chance to get through the roadblock he just hit in his rehab and to give Buchholz a chance to refine everything he still has to refine.
But if either Smoltz or Buchholz is banging on the door by the middle of June, well, all Theo Epstein has to do is call Omar Minaya and cash in his chips.
Q: I'm really hoping the Mets can poach a starter during the season. Who would be the most likely candidates -- Peavy, Lee?
A: Brad Penny might be a perfect guy, Dave -- the Red Sox might soon be willing to deal him, he'll be relatively inexpensive, and pitching in the NL, he'll be effective. He might not be a Cy Young caliber pitcher right now, but he's decent and might cost the Mets a Grade B prospect or two.
The Mets' rotation features Johan Santana and little else; Oliver Perez recently was placed on the disabled list and will pitch out of the bullpen upon his return, and Livan Hernandez is a year older and a year more ineffective than he was when he was released by the Minnesota Twins last summer. Mike Pelfrey may yet be useful, but his ERA is 5.46 and he has twice as many walks as strikeouts; John Maine's 4.54 ERA is good for second-best on the staff.
Penny, meanwhile, has a 6.90 ERA so far this season but quality starts in four of his six starts. On top of that, unlike Pelfrey and Perez, he actually has more strikeouts than walks so far this season. He hasn't been sensational, but he's been serviceable -- and the Mets, who can't afford to miss the playoffs for a third straight year, would be more than willing to trade a prospect or two for someone serviceable.
If that type of trade goes through -- it wouldn't happen until mid-June, probably -- the low-risk signing of Penny would look even better than it did in the offseason. Consider the laundry list of benefits the Red Sox would reap from the $2 or $3 million they'd end up having spent (assuming the Mets make the trade without money changing hands):
* Penny would have made at least four quality starts -- and while he's due for a hiccup or two, there's no reason to expect that he can't put together a couple more quality starts in May and June;
* Penny would have given John Smoltz a chance to work his way back slowly with no urgency and no real timetable;
* Penny would have given Clay Buchholz a chance to regain his confidence without the pressure of having to pitch against the Yankees and Rays;
* Penny would have yielded a midlevel prospect -- a bullpen arm like Eddie Kunz, if they're lucky, or a young starting pitcher like Scott Moviel -- at a time when young pitchers are like currency. The more young arms you can stockpile, after all, the less money you'll have to spend on pitchers on the free-agent market. ("The price of bullpen arms has kind of gone crazy," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said over the weekend.)
That's a pretty good return on that investment.
The Red Sox will hang onto Penny for as long as they can -- to give Smoltz a chance to get through the roadblock he just hit in his rehab and to give Buchholz a chance to refine everything he still has to refine.
But if either Smoltz or Buchholz is banging on the door by the middle of June, well, all Theo Epstein has to do is call Omar Minaya and cash in his chips.
Monday, May 11, 2009
Let's temper expectations for Bard -- and not panic if he struggles
We all know about the debut of Cla Meredith.
It wasn't that far off from the debut of Brad Lidge.
That should teach us a little bit about how to react to the first few weeks of the major-league career of Daniel Bard -- no matter what the outcome.
Meredith allowed zero runs in his first 15 innings at Double-A Portland in 2005. He was tearing the league to shreds. He was called up in early May and made his major league debut in the seventh inning of a tie game with a runner in scoring position.
He walked the first batter he faced. He walked the second batter he faced. He gave up a grand slam to the third batter he faced. The very next day, he allowed two earned runs on two hits and two walks in one inning -- and his ERA still dropped by more than 40 points.
By the end of the week, he'd allowed seven earned runs in 2 1/3 innings. He then pitched the rest of the season in Triple-A and allowed 30 runs in 48 1/3 innings -- good for a 5.59 ERA. Just shy of a year after his major-league debut, the Red Sox shipped him to San Diego in the Josh Bard-Doug Mirabelli trade.
That disaster was front and center in the minds of Red Sox fans and Red Sox executives alike this weekend when the announcement was made that Bard was on his way to Fenway Park.
Bard, a first-round pick who flamed out as a starter, pitched sensationally in spring training and proceeded to put together the following line in 11 appearances at Triple-A Pawtucket: 16 IP, 2 ER, 29 K, 5 BB. He was untouchable. (Really: He was untouchable.) His fastball touched triple digits. His breaking balls were sharp. His confidence was overflowing.
But the Red Sox don't need him to put together a line like that in his first month or two in the major leagues. All they really need is for Bard not to become Cla Meredith. The rest will take care of itself.
He might pitch great. He might get lit up. As long as his confidence remains intact, it really doesn't matter -- and history bears that out.
If he's going to be a lights-out relief pitcher, let's compare him to lights-out relief pitchers. Here, then, is a look at the big-league debuts of each of the closers who had at least 35 saves last season -- and a look at why we shouldn't rush to judgment after the first time we see Bard pitch:
* Brad Lidge, Phillies
6 appearances, 6.23 ERA, 12 K, 6 BB, 0 saves in 2002
* Joe Nathan, Twins
19 appearances (14 starts), 4.18 ERA, 54 K, 46 BB, 1 save in 1999
* Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
17 appearances (3 starts), 2.65 ERA, 34 K, 17 BB, 0 saves in 2005
* Mariano Rivera, Yankees
19 appearances (10 starts), 5.51 ERA, 51 K, 30 BB, 0 saves in 1995
* Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
5 appearances, 0.00 ERA, 13 K, 2 BB, 0 saves in 2002
* Joakim Soria, Royals
62 appearances, 2.48 ERA, 75 K, 19 BB, 17 saves in 2007
* Jose Valverde, Astros
54 appearances, 2.15 ERA, 71 K, 26 BB, 10 saves in 2003
* Brian Wilson, Giants
31 appearances, 5.40 ERA, 23 K, 21 BB, 1 save
K-Rod, as you can see, was the only one who came close to lighting the world on fire -- after his abbreviated regular-season stint, he allowed four earned runs in 18 2/3 postseason innings (1.92 ERA) during the Angels' run to the World Series. He then had a 3.03 ERA in 59 appearances in 2003, his first full season.
Soria likewise had a smooth start and -- until an elbow injury put him on the shelf the spring -- has maintained a certain level of success. But while Valverde pitched great as a 23-year-old rookie, he had a 4.25 ERA in his sophomore season and a 5.84 ERA two years after that; he eventually was traded to Houston and has a 5.62 ERA with the Astros this season.
All of the others, though, struggled out of the gate.
Lidge made his debut in mop-up duty in 2002 in a game his Astros eventually lost to the Braves by a 9-0 score; he worked through trouble in his first inning of work but gave up a two-run double to B.J. Surhoff in his second. He allowed two more runs a week later in yet another blowout, this time at the hands of the Mets. He then was dispatched back to the minor leagues.
Rivera began his big-league career as a starter in May of 1995 and was shelled by the California Angels. In his first career relief appearance three months later, he blew a lead he'd inherited from Andy Pettitte when he walked back-to-back hitters and surrendered a double to Dave Nilsson. An inning later, the legendary David Hulse hit an inside-the-park home run.
When Wilson -- a Londonderry, N.H., native -- made his debut with the Giants, he actually made it through his first couple of outings without much trouble. He even pitched two scoreless innings in a one-run game against the Rockies. But he opened his fourth career outing by hitting the Marlins' leadoff hitter and walking the next hitter; two batters later, Dan Uggla hit a two-run single to put the game out of reach.
Young pitchers occasionally have trouble getting acclimated to the big leagues. For Meredith, it turned out to be disastrous. For Papelbon, it turned out to be OK.
The best thing Bard has going for him, though, is that the Red Sox have made the Meredith mistake already. If Bard has a rough go of things -- as long as he has the stuff -- he ought to be OK.
It wasn't that far off from the debut of Brad Lidge.
That should teach us a little bit about how to react to the first few weeks of the major-league career of Daniel Bard -- no matter what the outcome.
Meredith allowed zero runs in his first 15 innings at Double-A Portland in 2005. He was tearing the league to shreds. He was called up in early May and made his major league debut in the seventh inning of a tie game with a runner in scoring position.
He walked the first batter he faced. He walked the second batter he faced. He gave up a grand slam to the third batter he faced. The very next day, he allowed two earned runs on two hits and two walks in one inning -- and his ERA still dropped by more than 40 points.
By the end of the week, he'd allowed seven earned runs in 2 1/3 innings. He then pitched the rest of the season in Triple-A and allowed 30 runs in 48 1/3 innings -- good for a 5.59 ERA. Just shy of a year after his major-league debut, the Red Sox shipped him to San Diego in the Josh Bard-Doug Mirabelli trade.
That disaster was front and center in the minds of Red Sox fans and Red Sox executives alike this weekend when the announcement was made that Bard was on his way to Fenway Park.
Bard, a first-round pick who flamed out as a starter, pitched sensationally in spring training and proceeded to put together the following line in 11 appearances at Triple-A Pawtucket: 16 IP, 2 ER, 29 K, 5 BB. He was untouchable. (Really: He was untouchable.) His fastball touched triple digits. His breaking balls were sharp. His confidence was overflowing.
But the Red Sox don't need him to put together a line like that in his first month or two in the major leagues. All they really need is for Bard not to become Cla Meredith. The rest will take care of itself.
He might pitch great. He might get lit up. As long as his confidence remains intact, it really doesn't matter -- and history bears that out.
If he's going to be a lights-out relief pitcher, let's compare him to lights-out relief pitchers. Here, then, is a look at the big-league debuts of each of the closers who had at least 35 saves last season -- and a look at why we shouldn't rush to judgment after the first time we see Bard pitch:
* Brad Lidge, Phillies
6 appearances, 6.23 ERA, 12 K, 6 BB, 0 saves in 2002
* Joe Nathan, Twins
19 appearances (14 starts), 4.18 ERA, 54 K, 46 BB, 1 save in 1999
* Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
17 appearances (3 starts), 2.65 ERA, 34 K, 17 BB, 0 saves in 2005
* Mariano Rivera, Yankees
19 appearances (10 starts), 5.51 ERA, 51 K, 30 BB, 0 saves in 1995
* Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
5 appearances, 0.00 ERA, 13 K, 2 BB, 0 saves in 2002
* Joakim Soria, Royals
62 appearances, 2.48 ERA, 75 K, 19 BB, 17 saves in 2007
* Jose Valverde, Astros
54 appearances, 2.15 ERA, 71 K, 26 BB, 10 saves in 2003
* Brian Wilson, Giants
31 appearances, 5.40 ERA, 23 K, 21 BB, 1 save
K-Rod, as you can see, was the only one who came close to lighting the world on fire -- after his abbreviated regular-season stint, he allowed four earned runs in 18 2/3 postseason innings (1.92 ERA) during the Angels' run to the World Series. He then had a 3.03 ERA in 59 appearances in 2003, his first full season.
Soria likewise had a smooth start and -- until an elbow injury put him on the shelf the spring -- has maintained a certain level of success. But while Valverde pitched great as a 23-year-old rookie, he had a 4.25 ERA in his sophomore season and a 5.84 ERA two years after that; he eventually was traded to Houston and has a 5.62 ERA with the Astros this season.
All of the others, though, struggled out of the gate.
Lidge made his debut in mop-up duty in 2002 in a game his Astros eventually lost to the Braves by a 9-0 score; he worked through trouble in his first inning of work but gave up a two-run double to B.J. Surhoff in his second. He allowed two more runs a week later in yet another blowout, this time at the hands of the Mets. He then was dispatched back to the minor leagues.
Rivera began his big-league career as a starter in May of 1995 and was shelled by the California Angels. In his first career relief appearance three months later, he blew a lead he'd inherited from Andy Pettitte when he walked back-to-back hitters and surrendered a double to Dave Nilsson. An inning later, the legendary David Hulse hit an inside-the-park home run.
When Wilson -- a Londonderry, N.H., native -- made his debut with the Giants, he actually made it through his first couple of outings without much trouble. He even pitched two scoreless innings in a one-run game against the Rockies. But he opened his fourth career outing by hitting the Marlins' leadoff hitter and walking the next hitter; two batters later, Dan Uggla hit a two-run single to put the game out of reach.
Young pitchers occasionally have trouble getting acclimated to the big leagues. For Meredith, it turned out to be disastrous. For Papelbon, it turned out to be OK.
The best thing Bard has going for him, though, is that the Red Sox have made the Meredith mistake already. If Bard has a rough go of things -- as long as he has the stuff -- he ought to be OK.
Top 100 Red Sox Extra: Bill Carrigan
(This blog counted down the Top 100 Red Sox of all-time -- from Keith Foulke to Ted Williams -- in March and April, wrapping up about a week ago. For the entire list, click the "Top100" tab at the bottom of this entry or just click here.)
Red Sox manager Terry Francona was asked by a camera crew on Friday to offer his thoughts on the career of Dom DiMaggio.
"How good of a player was he?" the television reporter asked.
Francona made a face.
"How old do you think I am?" he shot back.
A few hours later, after Francona's Red Sox had beaten the Tampa Bay Rays to earn their manager his 489th career win with the franchise, no one asked Francona to offer his thoughts about Bill Carrigan -- the win with whom Francona had just drawn even on the team's all-time list for managerial wins.
But they should have.
Francona and Carrigan are forever intertwined in Red Sox history for succeeding where so many others failed. The team went through 32 managers between 1918 and 2003 and didn't win a single World Series title.
Francona and Carrigan are the only Red Sox managers in history to win two World Series titles. The two actually are third and fourth -- Francona edged ahead after Sunday night's win over the Rays -- on the all-time list, trailing Joe Cronin (1,071) and Pinky Higgins (560). But only Carrigan ever saw popularity ever approach what Francona enjoys now -- and those championships had a lot to do with it.
Carrigan didn't just play the Francona role with with the Red Sox during his stint from 1906-16. He played the Jason Varitek role, too. He became the team's everyday catcher starting in 1909, hitting .296 with 13 doubles, and he hit 11 doubles and drove in 53 runs a year later. (He had seven at-bats in the 1912 World Series but went hitless.)
In 1913, though, the Red Sox started badly in defense of their 1912 championship. In early July, ownership fired manager Jake Stahl and installed Carrigan in his place. Carrigan was a native of Maine who played college football at Holy Cross before an injury sidetracked his football career and nudged him full-time toward the baseball diamond.
He never turned out to be all that much as a hitter. But if you measure a catcher by how well his pitchers perform -- something right out of the Gospel according to Varitek -- Carrigan was a master. In 1912, Smoky Joe Wood went 34-5 with a 1.91 ERA while Bucky O'Brien, Hugh Bedient and Ray Collins all had sub-3.00 ERAs. In 1915, Wood (1.49), Ernie Shore (1.64), Rube Foster (2.11), Dutch Leonard (2.36) and Babe Ruth (2.44) all had sub-3.00 ERAs.
Ruth, in fact, received a key piece of advice from his catcher in 1914: When he threw the curveball, Carrigan noticed, he stuck the tip of his tongue slightly out of his mouth. Carrigan pointed this out to Ruth and convinced his pitcher to keep his mouth sealed shut during his delivery so as not to tip off his pitches.
And in 1916, after Wood held out and Tris Speaker was traded to Cleveland, Carrigan took total control of his team. He even appealed to the competitiveness of his pitchers by refusing to abide by a set rotation; instead, he'd stand up in front of the team and ask, "Who wants the ball?" Ruth, Leonard, Shore, Foster and Carl Mays all were sensational all year along, and the Red Sox captured their second straight World Series and third in five years.
After that World Series, though, Carrigan hung 'em up for good. He was just 33 years old, but with so much accomplishment to his name, he chose his family over the game and headed home to Maine. He eventually would come out of retirement in the late 1920s to try to guide the Harry Frazee-depleted Red Sox back toward the top of the standings; that, though, was a task too tall for anyone, and he retired again after three losing seasons.
With Francona passing Carrigan in career wins this weekend, he probably can safely be considered the greatest manager in Red Sox history. But the accomplishments of Carrigan 90 years ago shouldn't be dismissed too quickly.
Red Sox manager Terry Francona was asked by a camera crew on Friday to offer his thoughts on the career of Dom DiMaggio.
"How good of a player was he?" the television reporter asked.
Francona made a face.
"How old do you think I am?" he shot back.
A few hours later, after Francona's Red Sox had beaten the Tampa Bay Rays to earn their manager his 489th career win with the franchise, no one asked Francona to offer his thoughts about Bill Carrigan -- the win with whom Francona had just drawn even on the team's all-time list for managerial wins.
But they should have.
Francona and Carrigan are forever intertwined in Red Sox history for succeeding where so many others failed. The team went through 32 managers between 1918 and 2003 and didn't win a single World Series title.
Francona and Carrigan are the only Red Sox managers in history to win two World Series titles. The two actually are third and fourth -- Francona edged ahead after Sunday night's win over the Rays -- on the all-time list, trailing Joe Cronin (1,071) and Pinky Higgins (560). But only Carrigan ever saw popularity ever approach what Francona enjoys now -- and those championships had a lot to do with it.
Carrigan didn't just play the Francona role with with the Red Sox during his stint from 1906-16. He played the Jason Varitek role, too. He became the team's everyday catcher starting in 1909, hitting .296 with 13 doubles, and he hit 11 doubles and drove in 53 runs a year later. (He had seven at-bats in the 1912 World Series but went hitless.)
In 1913, though, the Red Sox started badly in defense of their 1912 championship. In early July, ownership fired manager Jake Stahl and installed Carrigan in his place. Carrigan was a native of Maine who played college football at Holy Cross before an injury sidetracked his football career and nudged him full-time toward the baseball diamond.
He never turned out to be all that much as a hitter. But if you measure a catcher by how well his pitchers perform -- something right out of the Gospel according to Varitek -- Carrigan was a master. In 1912, Smoky Joe Wood went 34-5 with a 1.91 ERA while Bucky O'Brien, Hugh Bedient and Ray Collins all had sub-3.00 ERAs. In 1915, Wood (1.49), Ernie Shore (1.64), Rube Foster (2.11), Dutch Leonard (2.36) and Babe Ruth (2.44) all had sub-3.00 ERAs.
Ruth, in fact, received a key piece of advice from his catcher in 1914: When he threw the curveball, Carrigan noticed, he stuck the tip of his tongue slightly out of his mouth. Carrigan pointed this out to Ruth and convinced his pitcher to keep his mouth sealed shut during his delivery so as not to tip off his pitches.
And in 1916, after Wood held out and Tris Speaker was traded to Cleveland, Carrigan took total control of his team. He even appealed to the competitiveness of his pitchers by refusing to abide by a set rotation; instead, he'd stand up in front of the team and ask, "Who wants the ball?" Ruth, Leonard, Shore, Foster and Carl Mays all were sensational all year along, and the Red Sox captured their second straight World Series and third in five years.
After that World Series, though, Carrigan hung 'em up for good. He was just 33 years old, but with so much accomplishment to his name, he chose his family over the game and headed home to Maine. He eventually would come out of retirement in the late 1920s to try to guide the Harry Frazee-depleted Red Sox back toward the top of the standings; that, though, was a task too tall for anyone, and he retired again after three losing seasons.
With Francona passing Carrigan in career wins this weekend, he probably can safely be considered the greatest manager in Red Sox history. But the accomplishments of Carrigan 90 years ago shouldn't be dismissed too quickly.
Sunday, May 10, 2009
Ping-pong tested hands and eyes
It all comes back to the ping-pong.
Dustin Pedroia swings as hard as anyone in baseball – and gets better results than anyone in baseball – because he can see the ball hit his bat as well as anyone in baseball.
“He just has unbelievable hand-eye coordination to be able to swing the way that he does and still make quality contact almost every at-bat,” shortstop Jed Lowrie said earlier this season. “His hand-eye coordination, it’s some of the best I’ve ever seen.”
And that all comes back to the ping-pong.
Pedroia grew up in a house with a tiny ping-pong table – “You know the regular-sized ones? I had just a half-sized one” – and waged regular battles with his mother, a former college tennis player who’s the source of the second baseman’s well-chronicled competitiveness. It wasn’t until he was 13 or 14 years old that he beat her for the first time.
“Now I beat her all the time,” Pedroia said with a wide smile. “She gets pissed.”
Pedroia even played a little tennis himself. He was never a power player, of course, but “I can get to everything. I just make somebody mess up – that was my big thing. ‘I’m going to hit it back over until you hit it in the net or hit it long.’”
Now, though, he doesn’t worry too much about tennis – and only occasionally does he still play ping-pong.
But the hand-eye coordination that served him so well in racket sports has made him one of the most unique hitters baseball has ever seen. Every one of his 165 pounds is behind every swing he takes. He swings the bat as hard as anyone in the game.
“I’ve always swung hard,” he said. “I take the mentality of, ‘If it’s there and you can hit it, you might as well take a full swing at it.’”
That’s not an approach that works for players without his elite hand-eye coordination. The brotherhood of all-or-nothing swingers is a small one; slugger Vladmir Guerrero and former National League batting champion Freddy Sanchez are two of the few who come immediately to mind.
But for a guy who doesn’t stand 6-foot-4 like Mike Lowell or weigh 200 pounds like Jason Bay, any other approach wouldn’t cut it – and Pedroia gets all far more often than he gets nothing.
“He has an uncanny knack for finding the barrel and getting the barrel to the baseball regardless of the situation or the pitch,” Bay said. “It’s not something you’d teach most people because there’s only a handful of guys … that can do that.”
Said Lowell, “You look a guy like Vlad – he swings as hard as anyone, but he maintains his balance as well. Some guys can do it; I just think most people can’t without losing your balance or pulling your head. That’s what surprises people – that (Pedroia) can do it and stay balanced and hit tough pitches.”
As evidence: Pedroia struck out in an incredible 7.2 percent of his plate appearances a year ago, the fifth-lowest total in baseball. Lowell was second-lowest among Red Sox regulars, and he struck out 13 percent of the time. (The league average was 17 percent.)
So far this season, Pedroia is striking out exactly 7.8 percent of the time – still well under half the league average.
He’s also poised to do something only eight other players in baseball history have done – hit 50 doubles in back-to-back seasons. He hit 54 doubles a season ago; as recently as Thursday, he was on pace for 50-plus this season.
Despite the effort behind his swing, he’s always hit more doubles than home runs. He holds the single-season Pac-10 record for doubles in a season (34 in fewer than 300 at-bats at Arizona State in 2003) but hit just 14 home runs in his three-year college career; he hit 39 doubles and just 10 home runs in 627 at-bats at Triple-A Pawtucket.
That, again, is a byproduct of his size. He’s not a power hitter; as far as he can remember, he’s never hit an opposite-field home run in his life. When he squares up on a hanging breaking ball away and hits it as hard as he can to right field, it sometimes barely gets to the warning track.
But if it gets up the gap and one-hops the fence, he’ll usually end up standing on second base.
“It’s not necessarily that I try to do that,” he said. “I try to drive the ball, and my power is doubles. I’m never going to hit 30 home runs. I’m probably never going to hit 25. Hitting doubles, that’s part of my game.”
His game earned him Rookie of the Year and Most Valuable Player honors in back-to-back seasons. So far this season, he’s hitting .336 with nine doubles and an Opening Day home run.
His swing isn’t conventional. It’s not something that would work for everybody. There’s a reason that it took a lifetime of ping-pong to develop the hand-eye coordination to make it work.
But it’s as productive as any swing in the major leagues right now.
“It’s not going to end up on a poster, and it’s not like, ‘Hey, teach your kids that this is what you want to do,’” Bay said. “But, ultimately, as I was told when I first got in this game: If you can stand on your head and … hit .300, go ahead. Nobody cares as long as the results are there.”
Dustin Pedroia swings as hard as anyone in baseball – and gets better results than anyone in baseball – because he can see the ball hit his bat as well as anyone in baseball.
“He just has unbelievable hand-eye coordination to be able to swing the way that he does and still make quality contact almost every at-bat,” shortstop Jed Lowrie said earlier this season. “His hand-eye coordination, it’s some of the best I’ve ever seen.”
And that all comes back to the ping-pong.
Pedroia grew up in a house with a tiny ping-pong table – “You know the regular-sized ones? I had just a half-sized one” – and waged regular battles with his mother, a former college tennis player who’s the source of the second baseman’s well-chronicled competitiveness. It wasn’t until he was 13 or 14 years old that he beat her for the first time.
“Now I beat her all the time,” Pedroia said with a wide smile. “She gets pissed.”
Pedroia even played a little tennis himself. He was never a power player, of course, but “I can get to everything. I just make somebody mess up – that was my big thing. ‘I’m going to hit it back over until you hit it in the net or hit it long.’”
Now, though, he doesn’t worry too much about tennis – and only occasionally does he still play ping-pong.
But the hand-eye coordination that served him so well in racket sports has made him one of the most unique hitters baseball has ever seen. Every one of his 165 pounds is behind every swing he takes. He swings the bat as hard as anyone in the game.
“I’ve always swung hard,” he said. “I take the mentality of, ‘If it’s there and you can hit it, you might as well take a full swing at it.’”
That’s not an approach that works for players without his elite hand-eye coordination. The brotherhood of all-or-nothing swingers is a small one; slugger Vladmir Guerrero and former National League batting champion Freddy Sanchez are two of the few who come immediately to mind.
But for a guy who doesn’t stand 6-foot-4 like Mike Lowell or weigh 200 pounds like Jason Bay, any other approach wouldn’t cut it – and Pedroia gets all far more often than he gets nothing.
“He has an uncanny knack for finding the barrel and getting the barrel to the baseball regardless of the situation or the pitch,” Bay said. “It’s not something you’d teach most people because there’s only a handful of guys … that can do that.”
Said Lowell, “You look a guy like Vlad – he swings as hard as anyone, but he maintains his balance as well. Some guys can do it; I just think most people can’t without losing your balance or pulling your head. That’s what surprises people – that (Pedroia) can do it and stay balanced and hit tough pitches.”
As evidence: Pedroia struck out in an incredible 7.2 percent of his plate appearances a year ago, the fifth-lowest total in baseball. Lowell was second-lowest among Red Sox regulars, and he struck out 13 percent of the time. (The league average was 17 percent.)
So far this season, Pedroia is striking out exactly 7.8 percent of the time – still well under half the league average.
He’s also poised to do something only eight other players in baseball history have done – hit 50 doubles in back-to-back seasons. He hit 54 doubles a season ago; as recently as Thursday, he was on pace for 50-plus this season.
Despite the effort behind his swing, he’s always hit more doubles than home runs. He holds the single-season Pac-10 record for doubles in a season (34 in fewer than 300 at-bats at Arizona State in 2003) but hit just 14 home runs in his three-year college career; he hit 39 doubles and just 10 home runs in 627 at-bats at Triple-A Pawtucket.
That, again, is a byproduct of his size. He’s not a power hitter; as far as he can remember, he’s never hit an opposite-field home run in his life. When he squares up on a hanging breaking ball away and hits it as hard as he can to right field, it sometimes barely gets to the warning track.
But if it gets up the gap and one-hops the fence, he’ll usually end up standing on second base.
“It’s not necessarily that I try to do that,” he said. “I try to drive the ball, and my power is doubles. I’m never going to hit 30 home runs. I’m probably never going to hit 25. Hitting doubles, that’s part of my game.”
His game earned him Rookie of the Year and Most Valuable Player honors in back-to-back seasons. So far this season, he’s hitting .336 with nine doubles and an Opening Day home run.
His swing isn’t conventional. It’s not something that would work for everybody. There’s a reason that it took a lifetime of ping-pong to develop the hand-eye coordination to make it work.
But it’s as productive as any swing in the major leagues right now.
“It’s not going to end up on a poster, and it’s not like, ‘Hey, teach your kids that this is what you want to do,’” Bay said. “But, ultimately, as I was told when I first got in this game: If you can stand on your head and … hit .300, go ahead. Nobody cares as long as the results are there.”
Saturday, May 9, 2009
Snakebit Lester can't catch a break
Jon Lester made exactly one pitch all day he wishes he could take back.
"The one ball that should have been hit out was the first cutter I threw (to Evan Longoria)," Lester said in his postgame session with the media. "It was up, and he fouled it off. Really, after that, I executed pitches pretty well, I thought."
That was the second pitch of Longoria's first at-bat.
Six pitches later, Longoria went down to get a 94-mile-an-hour fastball at the knees and away and hit it on a straight line to center field for a two-run home run.
The pitch was crushed -- but it wasn't a pitch Lester would take back.
"Longoria goes down and gets a ball and hits it out," he said. "It's frustrating, but he put a good swing on it. ... He was out on his front foot a little bit and reaching, but he's a strong kid. ... I was just really surprised that that ball did go out. I figured he hit it well, but I didn't think as well as he did."
Said manager Terry Francona, "I thought it had some sink to it. (Longoria) stayed through that ball really well. Off the bat, I'm thinking, 'Boy, Jacoby (Ellsbury) is going to catch up with this. Not only is that not the case, but it's in the seats. I don't think it was a bad pitch, either. ... He stayed through that ball unlike too many people. I've seen a lot of guys roll that ball over, and you get a nice ground ball."
But you don't finish with a line that looks like Lester's looks like -- 4 1/3 IP, 10 H, 8 ER -- when you give up one good swing to one outstanding hitter. It takes a lot more than that.
For Lester, though, it was just that kind of day. He allowed exactly one hard-hit ball in the fifth inning -- the leadoff single that Akinori Iwamura hit through the box -- and then induced four routine ground balls and a routine fly ball to left field to go along with an attempted sacrifice bunt. The result? Seven hits and six earned runs.
A synopsis of the damage:
* Dioner Navarro hit a bouncing ground ball through the left side that just got under the glove of shortstop Julio Lugo. Iwamura moved up to second.
* B.J. Upton laid down a bunt toward the third-base side. Lester might have been a little too deliberate in fielding it and throwing it. Everyone was safe. Bases loaded.
* Carl Crawford hit a bouncing ground ball that just got past Lugo and into right field. Iwamura scored. Bases still loaded.
* Evan Longoria got under a 95-mile-an-hour fastball in on the hands and lofted it to left field -- where it would have been an easy out in any other ballpark. Fenway Park, though, isn't just any other ballpark, and it very nearly drifted over the Green Monster for a grand slam. It did, however, scrape off the ball for a two-run double. Navarro and Upton both scored.
("I went back and looked at that pitch, and that pitch really wasn't as bad as it seemed," Lester said. "It was in, off the plate, and he hit it off the wall.")
* Carlos Pena struck out on a curveball in the dirt to become Lester's sixth strikeout victim of the afternoon.
* Pat Burrell hit another bouncing ground ball through the left side that neither Lugo nor third baseman Mike Lowell could reach. Crawford and Longoria scored.
* Jason Bartlett hit yet another bouncing ground ball between Lugo and Lowell for yet another base hit.
At that point, Francona felt he had no choice but to go out and get Lester. Reliever Hunter Jones allowed a single to Gabe Kapler -- the fifth ground ball through that same hole that inning -- before Iwamura, up for the second time in the inning, hit a ground ball that a Red Sox infielder could corral. But since it's next to impossible to double up Iwamura, Burrell scored from third.
"A lot of those balls, off the bat, I thought were outs," Lester said. "It just seems like our guys are playing one step the wrong way -- and I'm not saying they're in the wrong position, but it just seems like that's the way things are going for me right now. ...
"I threw some good pitches, and they beat them into the ground just out of the reach of guys. That's baseball. That happens. Obviously, it's frustrating. I'd like have those balls hit five or six feet the other way, either direction, and they're outs or double plays or whatever."
Lester now has a 2-3 record and a 6.31 ERA in seven starts -- but he still feels like he's somehow on the right track.
"I don't really think there's a whole lot of adjustments that need to be done," he said, the tone of his voice making it sound like he was trying to convince himself as much as the reporters sitting in front of him. "I know I keep saying that, and I know it's probably getting old. But I feel like I'm throwing the ball pretty well, and right now, balls aren't going at people."
"The one ball that should have been hit out was the first cutter I threw (to Evan Longoria)," Lester said in his postgame session with the media. "It was up, and he fouled it off. Really, after that, I executed pitches pretty well, I thought."
That was the second pitch of Longoria's first at-bat.
Six pitches later, Longoria went down to get a 94-mile-an-hour fastball at the knees and away and hit it on a straight line to center field for a two-run home run.
The pitch was crushed -- but it wasn't a pitch Lester would take back.
"Longoria goes down and gets a ball and hits it out," he said. "It's frustrating, but he put a good swing on it. ... He was out on his front foot a little bit and reaching, but he's a strong kid. ... I was just really surprised that that ball did go out. I figured he hit it well, but I didn't think as well as he did."
Said manager Terry Francona, "I thought it had some sink to it. (Longoria) stayed through that ball really well. Off the bat, I'm thinking, 'Boy, Jacoby (Ellsbury) is going to catch up with this. Not only is that not the case, but it's in the seats. I don't think it was a bad pitch, either. ... He stayed through that ball unlike too many people. I've seen a lot of guys roll that ball over, and you get a nice ground ball."
But you don't finish with a line that looks like Lester's looks like -- 4 1/3 IP, 10 H, 8 ER -- when you give up one good swing to one outstanding hitter. It takes a lot more than that.
For Lester, though, it was just that kind of day. He allowed exactly one hard-hit ball in the fifth inning -- the leadoff single that Akinori Iwamura hit through the box -- and then induced four routine ground balls and a routine fly ball to left field to go along with an attempted sacrifice bunt. The result? Seven hits and six earned runs.
A synopsis of the damage:
* Dioner Navarro hit a bouncing ground ball through the left side that just got under the glove of shortstop Julio Lugo. Iwamura moved up to second.
* B.J. Upton laid down a bunt toward the third-base side. Lester might have been a little too deliberate in fielding it and throwing it. Everyone was safe. Bases loaded.
* Carl Crawford hit a bouncing ground ball that just got past Lugo and into right field. Iwamura scored. Bases still loaded.
* Evan Longoria got under a 95-mile-an-hour fastball in on the hands and lofted it to left field -- where it would have been an easy out in any other ballpark. Fenway Park, though, isn't just any other ballpark, and it very nearly drifted over the Green Monster for a grand slam. It did, however, scrape off the ball for a two-run double. Navarro and Upton both scored.
("I went back and looked at that pitch, and that pitch really wasn't as bad as it seemed," Lester said. "It was in, off the plate, and he hit it off the wall.")
* Carlos Pena struck out on a curveball in the dirt to become Lester's sixth strikeout victim of the afternoon.
* Pat Burrell hit another bouncing ground ball through the left side that neither Lugo nor third baseman Mike Lowell could reach. Crawford and Longoria scored.
* Jason Bartlett hit yet another bouncing ground ball between Lugo and Lowell for yet another base hit.
At that point, Francona felt he had no choice but to go out and get Lester. Reliever Hunter Jones allowed a single to Gabe Kapler -- the fifth ground ball through that same hole that inning -- before Iwamura, up for the second time in the inning, hit a ground ball that a Red Sox infielder could corral. But since it's next to impossible to double up Iwamura, Burrell scored from third.
"A lot of those balls, off the bat, I thought were outs," Lester said. "It just seems like our guys are playing one step the wrong way -- and I'm not saying they're in the wrong position, but it just seems like that's the way things are going for me right now. ...
"I threw some good pitches, and they beat them into the ground just out of the reach of guys. That's baseball. That happens. Obviously, it's frustrating. I'd like have those balls hit five or six feet the other way, either direction, and they're outs or double plays or whatever."
Lester now has a 2-3 record and a 6.31 ERA in seven starts -- but he still feels like he's somehow on the right track.
"I don't really think there's a whole lot of adjustments that need to be done," he said, the tone of his voice making it sound like he was trying to convince himself as much as the reporters sitting in front of him. "I know I keep saying that, and I know it's probably getting old. But I feel like I'm throwing the ball pretty well, and right now, balls aren't going at people."
Friday, May 8, 2009
The IBBs and flows
The intentional walk, in many ways, is an outdated and often misused managerial move. All too often, it's used to set up lefty-righty matchups that don't matter or set up a force play that isn't really necessary. (Others would say it even more forcefully than that.)
Still, though, there are times -- times like Friday night's sixth inning -- when the intentional walk is exactly what a team needs to settle everything down.
Here's the scene: Tampa Bay pitcher James Shields had pretty much handled the Red Sox through five innings, surrendering six hits but no runs and striking out five. Every time the Red Sox had threatened -- they'd put a runner on third base in the second and fourth innings -- he'd wiggled out of danger.
But he'd been hit hard in the sixth inning. Dustin Pedroia had started things off with an infield single that skipped off Shields' glove, and David Ortiz had worked a seven-pitch walk. Jason Bay had followed with a bomb of a home run over the Green Monster to tie the game at 3.
"It just happened very fast," Rays manager Joe Maddon said.
Even then, though, things kept slipping away. Mike Lowell was out in front of a cutter on the outside half of the plate but still yanked it up against the CVS sign along the left-field line for a double.
J.D. Drew -- a guy who was hitting .400 (8-for-20) in his career against Shields (with four doubles and a home run to boot) -- was up next. Drew had an .843 OPS coming into the game, good for fourth on one of the league's best-hitting teams. He also had been hitting the ball hard all night; he roped a line drive straight at Carlos Pena in the fourth, a shot that otherwise would have scored a run.
On deck, though, was recent call-up Jeff Bailey, a former International League MVP who was hitting .167 in limited action entering play on Friday. After Bailey was Jason Varitek, an aging catcher who was hitting .231. After Varitek was Julio Lugo, a shortstop less than two weeks into his second after having his knee repaired during spring training.
In other words, there was a pretty distinct divide between Drew and the group due to follow him.
On top of that, Drew was a lefty -- and lefties have slugged almost 100 points higher than righties against Shields since the Tampa Bay ace reached the major leagues.
First base, as they say, was open.
If there ever was a time to give a free pass, to put a guy on and collect your thoughts and go after a hitter against whom you've got a far better chance of success, this was the time.
Maddon -- we'll assume that this was his decision -- elected to have Shields pitch to Drew.
"I didn't know what the situation held," Drew said. "I just knew that I wanted to get a ball up in the zone, something I could really handle, and try to drive it."
Shields left a changeup up in the zone.
Drew hit it into the Rays' bullpen in right field.
A tie game turned into a 5-3 lead for the Red Sox.
"I wanted it up in the zone, but it was at the very top for me," Drew said. "I was able to get the barrel up there to it and get enough carry to get it out."
Maddon has never been a big intentional-walk guy. The Rays ranked 12th in the American League in IBBs issued in 2007 (31) and 11th in 2008 (29); so far this year, the Rays have issued five in 30 games, higher than normal but still below the league average.
But his decision to let Shields pitch to Drew might have cost his team the game.
Still, though, there are times -- times like Friday night's sixth inning -- when the intentional walk is exactly what a team needs to settle everything down.
Here's the scene: Tampa Bay pitcher James Shields had pretty much handled the Red Sox through five innings, surrendering six hits but no runs and striking out five. Every time the Red Sox had threatened -- they'd put a runner on third base in the second and fourth innings -- he'd wiggled out of danger.
But he'd been hit hard in the sixth inning. Dustin Pedroia had started things off with an infield single that skipped off Shields' glove, and David Ortiz had worked a seven-pitch walk. Jason Bay had followed with a bomb of a home run over the Green Monster to tie the game at 3.
"It just happened very fast," Rays manager Joe Maddon said.
Even then, though, things kept slipping away. Mike Lowell was out in front of a cutter on the outside half of the plate but still yanked it up against the CVS sign along the left-field line for a double.
J.D. Drew -- a guy who was hitting .400 (8-for-20) in his career against Shields (with four doubles and a home run to boot) -- was up next. Drew had an .843 OPS coming into the game, good for fourth on one of the league's best-hitting teams. He also had been hitting the ball hard all night; he roped a line drive straight at Carlos Pena in the fourth, a shot that otherwise would have scored a run.
On deck, though, was recent call-up Jeff Bailey, a former International League MVP who was hitting .167 in limited action entering play on Friday. After Bailey was Jason Varitek, an aging catcher who was hitting .231. After Varitek was Julio Lugo, a shortstop less than two weeks into his second after having his knee repaired during spring training.
In other words, there was a pretty distinct divide between Drew and the group due to follow him.
On top of that, Drew was a lefty -- and lefties have slugged almost 100 points higher than righties against Shields since the Tampa Bay ace reached the major leagues.
First base, as they say, was open.
If there ever was a time to give a free pass, to put a guy on and collect your thoughts and go after a hitter against whom you've got a far better chance of success, this was the time.
Maddon -- we'll assume that this was his decision -- elected to have Shields pitch to Drew.
"I didn't know what the situation held," Drew said. "I just knew that I wanted to get a ball up in the zone, something I could really handle, and try to drive it."
Shields left a changeup up in the zone.
Drew hit it into the Rays' bullpen in right field.
A tie game turned into a 5-3 lead for the Red Sox.
"I wanted it up in the zone, but it was at the very top for me," Drew said. "I was able to get the barrel up there to it and get enough carry to get it out."
Maddon has never been a big intentional-walk guy. The Rays ranked 12th in the American League in IBBs issued in 2007 (31) and 11th in 2008 (29); so far this year, the Rays have issued five in 30 games, higher than normal but still below the league average.
But his decision to let Shields pitch to Drew might have cost his team the game.
The myth of MLB: The Show
We've all seen the commercial -- Dustin Pedroia standing in his living room, irate, demanding that MLB: The Show fix the glitch that has his virtual likeness unable to hit the high, inside fastball.
"That (expletive) is funny, huh?" Pedroia said today. "They did a good job with that. When they told me they wanted me to be on the cover, I was like, 'Man, that’s cool to be on the cover, but then you've got to do the commercial, and I don't really like doing anything (like that).'"
(That's an interesting thought coming from a guy who did this, this and this, but OK.)
"When I got there and started doing the cover," he said, "I was like, 'This is going to be pretty funny.'"
Here's the funnier thing: Pedroia can hit the high, inside fastball -- and Pedroia's virtual likeness can hit the high, inside fastball, too.
"They did it because, in the game, that's my highest hitting – high and inside, I'm hitting .480 or something ridiculous," he said. "So they're like, 'We're going to do the commercial like this – and then in the game, that's your hot spot."
That's not quite true to life. The way Pedroia swings does make him a little susceptible to high heat. But based on the Inside Edge data in the Red Sox Annual, the high, hard stuff is far from his biggest weakness.
A year ago, he hit .286 (but slugged over .500) on pitches up and in -- and he hit .418 and likewise slugged over .500 on pitches up and over the middle. It was down and in (.257 batting average) and down and away (.264 batting average).
"That (expletive) is funny, huh?" Pedroia said today. "They did a good job with that. When they told me they wanted me to be on the cover, I was like, 'Man, that’s cool to be on the cover, but then you've got to do the commercial, and I don't really like doing anything (like that).'"
(That's an interesting thought coming from a guy who did this, this and this, but OK.)
"When I got there and started doing the cover," he said, "I was like, 'This is going to be pretty funny.'"
Here's the funnier thing: Pedroia can hit the high, inside fastball -- and Pedroia's virtual likeness can hit the high, inside fastball, too.
"They did it because, in the game, that's my highest hitting – high and inside, I'm hitting .480 or something ridiculous," he said. "So they're like, 'We're going to do the commercial like this – and then in the game, that's your hot spot."
That's not quite true to life. The way Pedroia swings does make him a little susceptible to high heat. But based on the Inside Edge data in the Red Sox Annual, the high, hard stuff is far from his biggest weakness.
A year ago, he hit .286 (but slugged over .500) on pitches up and in -- and he hit .418 and likewise slugged over .500 on pitches up and over the middle. It was down and in (.257 batting average) and down and away (.264 batting average).
Slowing down Carl Crawford
The last time the Red Sox faced the Rays, Brad Penny was on the mound and Carl Crawford stole an American League-record six bases in one game.
Tonight, at Fenway Park, Brad Penny is on the mound and Carl Crawford is poised to do the same thing all over again if he gets the opportunity.
A reporter asked Terry Francona today how he plans to defend against Crawford running wild. The Red Sox manager's strategy was simple:
1. Keep Crawford off base.
2. That's it. Keep Crawford off base.
"Penny's times to the plate were as good as he's going to get without really screwing up his pitching," Francona said. "It's like Jacoby (Ellsbury) -- how many times have we seen this year when they've pitched out with Jacoby and didn't throw him out? That's part of why they have success. The best way we can stop that is not letting him get on base because sometimes he's too fast.
"There was a game in Tampa -- it wasn't the game where he stole the bunch of bases -- but we actually held him on at second, and he stole third flat-footed. If you can't stop him then, you'vej ust got to keep him off base."
The last time the Red Sox played the Rays, after all, Crawford reached base five times en route to his six stolen bases. It's tough for him to run wild, though, if he's not getting on base.
"If we can get the first out of an inning, that really sometimes slows them down," Francona said.
Well, let's not go that far. Here's a look at Crawford's stolen bases last Sunday:
First inning
B.J. Upton led off with a groundout, and Crawford followed with a one-out walk. He then stole second on the first pitch.
Third inning
Upton led off with a strikeout. Crawford followed with a one-out single but waited until there were two outs -- Evan Longoria flew to center field -- to steal second base.
Fifth inning
Crawford led off with a single to right field and stole second on the first pitch to Longoria. Longoria then struck out and Carlos Pena popped to third. Crawford stole third on the first pitch Penny threw to Pat Burrell with two outs.
Seventh inning
Upton led off with a pop fly to second base. Crawford hit a one-out single and stole second base during Longoria's at-bat.
Eighth inning
There already were two outs when Crawford beat out an infield single to shortstop. He then stole second base during Longoria's at-bat.
The lesson learned here is that you can't slow down Crawford at all, right. No outs, one out, two outs -- it's all the same. All the Red Sox can do is keep the guy off the basepaths.
Tonight, at Fenway Park, Brad Penny is on the mound and Carl Crawford is poised to do the same thing all over again if he gets the opportunity.
A reporter asked Terry Francona today how he plans to defend against Crawford running wild. The Red Sox manager's strategy was simple:
1. Keep Crawford off base.
2. That's it. Keep Crawford off base.
"Penny's times to the plate were as good as he's going to get without really screwing up his pitching," Francona said. "It's like Jacoby (Ellsbury) -- how many times have we seen this year when they've pitched out with Jacoby and didn't throw him out? That's part of why they have success. The best way we can stop that is not letting him get on base because sometimes he's too fast.
"There was a game in Tampa -- it wasn't the game where he stole the bunch of bases -- but we actually held him on at second, and he stole third flat-footed. If you can't stop him then, you'vej ust got to keep him off base."
The last time the Red Sox played the Rays, after all, Crawford reached base five times en route to his six stolen bases. It's tough for him to run wild, though, if he's not getting on base.
"If we can get the first out of an inning, that really sometimes slows them down," Francona said.
Well, let's not go that far. Here's a look at Crawford's stolen bases last Sunday:
First inning
B.J. Upton led off with a groundout, and Crawford followed with a one-out walk. He then stole second on the first pitch.
Third inning
Upton led off with a strikeout. Crawford followed with a one-out single but waited until there were two outs -- Evan Longoria flew to center field -- to steal second base.
Fifth inning
Crawford led off with a single to right field and stole second on the first pitch to Longoria. Longoria then struck out and Carlos Pena popped to third. Crawford stole third on the first pitch Penny threw to Pat Burrell with two outs.
Seventh inning
Upton led off with a pop fly to second base. Crawford hit a one-out single and stole second base during Longoria's at-bat.
Eighth inning
There already were two outs when Crawford beat out an infield single to shortstop. He then stole second base during Longoria's at-bat.
The lesson learned here is that you can't slow down Crawford at all, right. No outs, one out, two outs -- it's all the same. All the Red Sox can do is keep the guy off the basepaths.
Thursday, May 7, 2009
Bailey, Kottaras get things rolling
There's a school of thought that goes like this: When a new pitcher comes into a game and there are men on base, you take a pitch or two to gauge his stuff -- lest you get burned by a first-pitch breaking ball and bounce into a rally-killing double play.
There's another school of thought that goes like this: When you're 3-for-22 on the season and not getting any kind of regular playing time and you get a first-pitch fastball over the plate, you jump the heck on it.
"To be honest with you, sometimes you sit offspeed -- but in that situation, I said, 'I'm just going to sit fastball,'" said first baseman Jeff Bailey, whose bases-loaded double in the sixth inning broke Thursday's game wide open. "That's a situation where it's going to be one or the other. They're trying to get a bad swing, a double-play ball, something like that, and I guessed right. It was middle-in, and I got the head out -- I didn't crush it, but it was enough."
Bailey was part of a makeshift lineup cobbled together in spite of injuries to Kevin Youkilis, Jacoby Ellsbury and David Ortiz -- the latter of whom discovered during batting practice that he couldn't turn his neck to face the pitcher without feeling pain.
Since Tim Wakefield was pitching, George Kottaras was behind the plate -- meaning the Red Sox were only playing four regular starters in the field plus Julio Lugo at designated hitter.
"We were scrambling," manager Terry Francona said.
But after starter Jeremy Sowers pitched five solid innings, the Red Sox started to get things going in the sixth. The first six batters of the inning, in fact, all reached before Sowers could record an out. Jason Bay's double to left scored a run to tie the game at 2, and Rocco Baldelli's single to right-center field plated two more to give the Red Sox a 4-2 lead.
When J.D. Drew walked on a slider outside, Cleveland manager Eric Wedge called upon Masa Kobayashi to face Bailey with the bases loaded and no outs.
It was certainly still a game at that point. If Kobayashi could have gotten Bailey to hit the ball on the ground, he could have wiggled out of the jam with no further damage -- and Bailey had hit into double plays in back-to-back games.
Not Thursday, though.
"I was just looking fastball," Bailey said. "He started it in the middle and it ran in a little bit, and I got my hands through."
The result was a double to left field that scored Baldelli and Mike Lowell to push the Red Sox lead to 6-2 -- and also push Bailey's batting average up above .150 for the first time in almost a week.
"You never want to go under .100," he said with a wry grin.
Two batters later, it was Kottaras' turn. Nick Green had just beaten out an infield hit; Kobayashi failed to cover first base on a slow roller to the right side of the infield, and that loaded things right back up for a catcher who had been having a similarly tough time in limited action.
Heading into Thursday night, Kottaras' batting average was .143; he'd then popped to center and popped to short in his first two at-bats. That's how it sometimes goes, though, when you're a backup catcher who plays once or twice a week.
"It's not easy, but on the days when I'm not playing, I do as much as I can to keep my rhythm going," he said.
Just like Bailey, Kottaras didn't wait around for Kobayashi to get ahead in the count. He got a first-pitch fastball up and away and lifted it into center field for a two-run single.
"You're just trying to be aggressive in the situation and take what you can get," he said.
With that hit, he lifted his batting average back above .150, higher than it's been since April 22. He also knocked in more runs on that play than he had in his first 23 at-bats.
"It's great getting a hit anytime," he said. "I just went up there and tried to simplify what's going on."
Julio Lugo followed Kottaras with an infield hit, and Dustin Pedroia then singled home two more runs before Jason Bay hit a three-run home run over the Red Sox bullpen. This all, of course, came before the Indians had recorded an out.
It made for quite the memorable inning.
"It's always great to put some runs on the board," Kottaras said. "Guys had some great at-bats and hustled some balls out. We just went out there and made things happen."
Said Bailey, "It gets crowded at the helmet rack, I know that. Everybody wants to get up there."
And don't think their contributions got lost in the onslaught.
"On a night when David doesn't play, it's very satisfying getting guys involved -- getting George to stay on a pitch long enough to get it over the infielder's head, and Bails had some real good at-bats," Francona said. "Right in the middle of that big inning, it's great."
Said Baldelli, "It's a good-hitting team over here, and I think everybody knows that. Especially when the bottom of the order is really contributing like they did tonight, good things are going to happen."
There's another school of thought that goes like this: When you're 3-for-22 on the season and not getting any kind of regular playing time and you get a first-pitch fastball over the plate, you jump the heck on it.
"To be honest with you, sometimes you sit offspeed -- but in that situation, I said, 'I'm just going to sit fastball,'" said first baseman Jeff Bailey, whose bases-loaded double in the sixth inning broke Thursday's game wide open. "That's a situation where it's going to be one or the other. They're trying to get a bad swing, a double-play ball, something like that, and I guessed right. It was middle-in, and I got the head out -- I didn't crush it, but it was enough."
Bailey was part of a makeshift lineup cobbled together in spite of injuries to Kevin Youkilis, Jacoby Ellsbury and David Ortiz -- the latter of whom discovered during batting practice that he couldn't turn his neck to face the pitcher without feeling pain.
Since Tim Wakefield was pitching, George Kottaras was behind the plate -- meaning the Red Sox were only playing four regular starters in the field plus Julio Lugo at designated hitter.
"We were scrambling," manager Terry Francona said.
But after starter Jeremy Sowers pitched five solid innings, the Red Sox started to get things going in the sixth. The first six batters of the inning, in fact, all reached before Sowers could record an out. Jason Bay's double to left scored a run to tie the game at 2, and Rocco Baldelli's single to right-center field plated two more to give the Red Sox a 4-2 lead.
When J.D. Drew walked on a slider outside, Cleveland manager Eric Wedge called upon Masa Kobayashi to face Bailey with the bases loaded and no outs.
It was certainly still a game at that point. If Kobayashi could have gotten Bailey to hit the ball on the ground, he could have wiggled out of the jam with no further damage -- and Bailey had hit into double plays in back-to-back games.
Not Thursday, though.
"I was just looking fastball," Bailey said. "He started it in the middle and it ran in a little bit, and I got my hands through."
The result was a double to left field that scored Baldelli and Mike Lowell to push the Red Sox lead to 6-2 -- and also push Bailey's batting average up above .150 for the first time in almost a week.
"You never want to go under .100," he said with a wry grin.
Two batters later, it was Kottaras' turn. Nick Green had just beaten out an infield hit; Kobayashi failed to cover first base on a slow roller to the right side of the infield, and that loaded things right back up for a catcher who had been having a similarly tough time in limited action.
Heading into Thursday night, Kottaras' batting average was .143; he'd then popped to center and popped to short in his first two at-bats. That's how it sometimes goes, though, when you're a backup catcher who plays once or twice a week.
"It's not easy, but on the days when I'm not playing, I do as much as I can to keep my rhythm going," he said.
Just like Bailey, Kottaras didn't wait around for Kobayashi to get ahead in the count. He got a first-pitch fastball up and away and lifted it into center field for a two-run single.
"You're just trying to be aggressive in the situation and take what you can get," he said.
With that hit, he lifted his batting average back above .150, higher than it's been since April 22. He also knocked in more runs on that play than he had in his first 23 at-bats.
"It's great getting a hit anytime," he said. "I just went up there and tried to simplify what's going on."
Julio Lugo followed Kottaras with an infield hit, and Dustin Pedroia then singled home two more runs before Jason Bay hit a three-run home run over the Red Sox bullpen. This all, of course, came before the Indians had recorded an out.
It made for quite the memorable inning.
"It's always great to put some runs on the board," Kottaras said. "Guys had some great at-bats and hustled some balls out. We just went out there and made things happen."
Said Bailey, "It gets crowded at the helmet rack, I know that. Everybody wants to get up there."
And don't think their contributions got lost in the onslaught.
"On a night when David doesn't play, it's very satisfying getting guys involved -- getting George to stay on a pitch long enough to get it over the infielder's head, and Bails had some real good at-bats," Francona said. "Right in the middle of that big inning, it's great."
Said Baldelli, "It's a good-hitting team over here, and I think everybody knows that. Especially when the bottom of the order is really contributing like they did tonight, good things are going to happen."
Asked and answered: Mike Lowell
Third baseman Mike Lowell has a unique bond with the suddenly disgraced Manny Ramirez -- the two are the only World Series MVPs in the history of the Boston Red Sox. And while several players offered their thoughts on the news that Ramirez had been suspended for 50 games, Lowell perhaps put it best:
Were you surprised when you heard the news?
"Absolutely. I'm surprised when I hear the news about anyone. He's another big-name guy and just another black eye for the game. Guys that are playing the game are trying to maximize the talents that they've been given naturally, but everyone's linked in that category. That's what's a shame. I understand that it's hard for Major League Baseball to glorify guys that they think are doing it right because we don't know. That's almost where it's gotten to. That's very unfortunate, but we keep finding these guys.
"The message is terrible, especially for young kids who might aspire to be major-league baseball players."
What's the protocol now as far as putting something in your body?
"I don't put (expletive) in my body. I don't understand why, now, anyone would come close to taking anything that could remotely result in a positive test. I don't know. In the past, if guys did it, they had the crutch that they weren't testing. But, nowadays, I don't really understand it. Maybe there was a secret society I wasn't invited to, but I don't get it. I don't. I wish I could, but I don't."
Do you think Manny was doing anything while he was here?
"I have no idea. I have no idea. He's a phenomenal hitter, and I never saw anything. I defer to asking Manny that question."
What would you say to people who now say '04 and '07 are tainted?
"Everyone's entitled to their opinion, but I don't feel like our '07 season was tainted. This is still a 25-man team. It remains to be seen what happened in '07, but Manny's going to be questioned a lot. I prefer talking about today's game and our next series. Manny's on another team right now. It would be a lot more prevalent if he was on our team; it would have affected us. But it really doesn't."
Does it surprise you more or hurt more because he was on your team?
"No, it hurts me because he made a personal choice and I think it was the wrong one and I think it sends a terrible message. Each person's got to look in the mirror in the morning. If you can live with it, it's up to you."
Do you see a time when this has all gone away?
"I would love to see a time, but it doesn't seem like it's anywhere near because we've got guys that keep, you could say, trying to beat the system. But like I said, I just don't understand why it would be done now. I don't get it."
If you get caught now, it's just stupidity, right?
"I would lean towards that, yeah."
Were you surprised when you heard the news?
"Absolutely. I'm surprised when I hear the news about anyone. He's another big-name guy and just another black eye for the game. Guys that are playing the game are trying to maximize the talents that they've been given naturally, but everyone's linked in that category. That's what's a shame. I understand that it's hard for Major League Baseball to glorify guys that they think are doing it right because we don't know. That's almost where it's gotten to. That's very unfortunate, but we keep finding these guys.
"The message is terrible, especially for young kids who might aspire to be major-league baseball players."
What's the protocol now as far as putting something in your body?
"I don't put (expletive) in my body. I don't understand why, now, anyone would come close to taking anything that could remotely result in a positive test. I don't know. In the past, if guys did it, they had the crutch that they weren't testing. But, nowadays, I don't really understand it. Maybe there was a secret society I wasn't invited to, but I don't get it. I don't. I wish I could, but I don't."
Do you think Manny was doing anything while he was here?
"I have no idea. I have no idea. He's a phenomenal hitter, and I never saw anything. I defer to asking Manny that question."
What would you say to people who now say '04 and '07 are tainted?
"Everyone's entitled to their opinion, but I don't feel like our '07 season was tainted. This is still a 25-man team. It remains to be seen what happened in '07, but Manny's going to be questioned a lot. I prefer talking about today's game and our next series. Manny's on another team right now. It would be a lot more prevalent if he was on our team; it would have affected us. But it really doesn't."
Does it surprise you more or hurt more because he was on your team?
"No, it hurts me because he made a personal choice and I think it was the wrong one and I think it sends a terrible message. Each person's got to look in the mirror in the morning. If you can live with it, it's up to you."
Do you see a time when this has all gone away?
"I would love to see a time, but it doesn't seem like it's anywhere near because we've got guys that keep, you could say, trying to beat the system. But like I said, I just don't understand why it would be done now. I don't get it."
If you get caught now, it's just stupidity, right?
"I would lean towards that, yeah."
Jonathan Papelbon: Not a constitutional expert
A horde of notebook- and camera-toting reporters descended on Jonathan Papelbon as he wandered into the Red Sox clubhouse. They clustered all around the couches in the middle of the locker room -- Manny Delcarmen, Justin Masterson and Ramon Ramirez all had been sitting around and watching TV, but they fled the scene just to avoid getting trampled.
Papelbon stood in front of his locker and rubbed his chin, surveying the scene for a second, before he spoke.
"I'm going to go ahead and tell you guys right now: I ain't saying (expletive)," he announced. "If you all want to ask me about Manny, I ain't going to say nothing. I wish I could, but I can't."
"Taking the Fifth, huh?" one reporter asked.
"Yep," he said. "I'm going to uphold my First Amendment right."
Almost, Pap. Almost.
After a pause, Papelbon then said, just as loudly, "But, anyway, we're playing the Cleveland Indians today..."
"Manny played for the Indians once," a reporter cut in.
"I think he did," Papelbon said.
Another pause. Cameras still rolling.
"Yeah, so I've got stretching in a little while," Papelbon said. "That's about it."
Papelbon -- as outgoing a player as the Red Sox have -- then did offer his thoughts. But you'll be able to find those thoughts plenty of other places. We at OneIfByLand are just here to set the scene.
Papelbon stood in front of his locker and rubbed his chin, surveying the scene for a second, before he spoke.
"I'm going to go ahead and tell you guys right now: I ain't saying (expletive)," he announced. "If you all want to ask me about Manny, I ain't going to say nothing. I wish I could, but I can't."
"Taking the Fifth, huh?" one reporter asked.
"Yep," he said. "I'm going to uphold my First Amendment right."
Almost, Pap. Almost.
After a pause, Papelbon then said, just as loudly, "But, anyway, we're playing the Cleveland Indians today..."
"Manny played for the Indians once," a reporter cut in.
"I think he did," Papelbon said.
Another pause. Cameras still rolling.
"Yeah, so I've got stretching in a little while," Papelbon said. "That's about it."
Papelbon -- as outgoing a player as the Red Sox have -- then did offer his thoughts. But you'll be able to find those thoughts plenty of other places. We at OneIfByLand are just here to set the scene.
How long until the Blue Jays aren't just a blip?
Aaron Hill is hitting .366 and slugging .567. Adam Lind is hitting .336 and slugging .586. Marco Scutaro isn't just a fun name to say anymore; he has five home runs and is OBP'ing .411.
Roy Halladay has 44 walks and seven strikeouts and a 3.29 ERA. Scott Richmond has 26 walks and 12 strikeouts and a 2.67 ERA. Closer Scott Downs has allowed one earned run in 15 1/3 innings.
It's May 7. It's 30 games into the season.
How long until we start to wonder if the Blue Jays are for real?
Here comes the outcry now: Not until they play someone!
The Blue Jays, after all, reside in the toughest division in baseball and have yet to play anyone in that division except the hapless Baltimore Orioles. (They swept three from the Orioles a week ago.)
They have, however, played just about everyone else. They've played the entire American League Central. They've played three of the four teams in the American League West. They've played Royals (lost three of four), Tigers (won three of four) and Rangers (won two of three), and all three of those teams have better records right now than the foundering Yankees.
It's not just a hot streak anymore. In fact, the Jays bounced back from getting steamrolled by the Zack Greinke Express to win five of their last six, including that sweep of Baltimore and Wednesday night's 13-1 trouncing of the Angels team that pretty much everyone expected to run away with the West Division. (Halladay, in that game, threw eight strong innings to earn his sixth win of the season; he's lasted eight innings in three of his last four starts, a godsend for a spectacular bullpen that's in danger of being overworked.)
The Blue Jays can score runs. They've scored in double digits six times already this season, in fact -- and not against chumps, either. Among their victims: Chicago's Gavin Floyd (17-8 with a 3.84 ERA last season), Minnesota's Scott Baker (11-4 with a 3.45 ERA last season) and Detroit's Justin Verlander (you can see here why he's as strong as ever).
Among the Jays' key contributors early on:
* Hill hit .291 and slugged .459 as a 25-year-old two years ago but missed most of last season with a severe concussion. He's 27 and healthy now, and while he probably won't finish the year hitting .366, he's vaulted himself into the top echelon of second basemen in the American League;
* Lind is a 25-year-old power hitter who hit 19 home runs in fewer than 400 at-bats at Double-A New Hampshire three years ago, and he's receiving regular playing time for the first time in his big-league career. He's already walked as many times this season as he did in 88 games last season;
* Scott Rolen is a Gold Glove-level third baseman whose slugging percentage is inching toward its pre-2007 levels. He had a miserable final season with St. Louis but hit 30 doubles and slugged .431 in his first season with the Blue Jays; he's slugging .455 so far this season;
* Vernon Wells has seen his slugging percentage vaccillate between .402 and .550 since he broke into the league full-time, and he's at .472 this season. Almost half of his first 35 hits have gone for extra bases.
* Alex Rios is a perennial underachiever who still hasn't quite broken out this season, either; he's slugging under .400 and has struck out more than twice as often as he's walked. But his best month, statistically, is July, so watch out for him to get hot this summer.
The Blue Jays can prevent runs, too, and that's been particularly impressive given the way Cito Gaston has had to piecemeal a starting rotation together. Nine different pitchers have started games already for the Jays; only three have made more than four starts. Ricky Romero, the player the Jays drafted over Troy Tulowitzki, had a 1.71 ERA in his three starts before going down with an oblique injury; he's set to make a rehab start on Friday.
Even better, Shaun Marcum (3.39 ERA in 25 starts last season before undergoing Tommy John surgery) already is throwing bullpen sessions and could start pitching in minor-league games by the middle of the summer. If the Jays still are in it in August and September, Marcum could be a huge addition.
No, the Jays haven't played the powers of the American League East yet. But the last year's Rays -- the comparison that's starting to get thrown around -- were just 5-7 against the Red Sox and Yankees by Mother's Day a year ago and won just 16 of their first 30 games.
The Jays have won 20 of their first 30 games, and they've got an ace who's a combined 27-17 with a 3.72 ERA in his career against the Red Sox and Yankees.
They might yet fade. But don't count on it.
Roy Halladay has 44 walks and seven strikeouts and a 3.29 ERA. Scott Richmond has 26 walks and 12 strikeouts and a 2.67 ERA. Closer Scott Downs has allowed one earned run in 15 1/3 innings.
It's May 7. It's 30 games into the season.
How long until we start to wonder if the Blue Jays are for real?
Here comes the outcry now: Not until they play someone!
The Blue Jays, after all, reside in the toughest division in baseball and have yet to play anyone in that division except the hapless Baltimore Orioles. (They swept three from the Orioles a week ago.)
They have, however, played just about everyone else. They've played the entire American League Central. They've played three of the four teams in the American League West. They've played Royals (lost three of four), Tigers (won three of four) and Rangers (won two of three), and all three of those teams have better records right now than the foundering Yankees.
It's not just a hot streak anymore. In fact, the Jays bounced back from getting steamrolled by the Zack Greinke Express to win five of their last six, including that sweep of Baltimore and Wednesday night's 13-1 trouncing of the Angels team that pretty much everyone expected to run away with the West Division. (Halladay, in that game, threw eight strong innings to earn his sixth win of the season; he's lasted eight innings in three of his last four starts, a godsend for a spectacular bullpen that's in danger of being overworked.)
The Blue Jays can score runs. They've scored in double digits six times already this season, in fact -- and not against chumps, either. Among their victims: Chicago's Gavin Floyd (17-8 with a 3.84 ERA last season), Minnesota's Scott Baker (11-4 with a 3.45 ERA last season) and Detroit's Justin Verlander (you can see here why he's as strong as ever).
Among the Jays' key contributors early on:
* Hill hit .291 and slugged .459 as a 25-year-old two years ago but missed most of last season with a severe concussion. He's 27 and healthy now, and while he probably won't finish the year hitting .366, he's vaulted himself into the top echelon of second basemen in the American League;
* Lind is a 25-year-old power hitter who hit 19 home runs in fewer than 400 at-bats at Double-A New Hampshire three years ago, and he's receiving regular playing time for the first time in his big-league career. He's already walked as many times this season as he did in 88 games last season;
* Scott Rolen is a Gold Glove-level third baseman whose slugging percentage is inching toward its pre-2007 levels. He had a miserable final season with St. Louis but hit 30 doubles and slugged .431 in his first season with the Blue Jays; he's slugging .455 so far this season;
* Vernon Wells has seen his slugging percentage vaccillate between .402 and .550 since he broke into the league full-time, and he's at .472 this season. Almost half of his first 35 hits have gone for extra bases.
* Alex Rios is a perennial underachiever who still hasn't quite broken out this season, either; he's slugging under .400 and has struck out more than twice as often as he's walked. But his best month, statistically, is July, so watch out for him to get hot this summer.
The Blue Jays can prevent runs, too, and that's been particularly impressive given the way Cito Gaston has had to piecemeal a starting rotation together. Nine different pitchers have started games already for the Jays; only three have made more than four starts. Ricky Romero, the player the Jays drafted over Troy Tulowitzki, had a 1.71 ERA in his three starts before going down with an oblique injury; he's set to make a rehab start on Friday.
Even better, Shaun Marcum (3.39 ERA in 25 starts last season before undergoing Tommy John surgery) already is throwing bullpen sessions and could start pitching in minor-league games by the middle of the summer. If the Jays still are in it in August and September, Marcum could be a huge addition.
No, the Jays haven't played the powers of the American League East yet. But the last year's Rays -- the comparison that's starting to get thrown around -- were just 5-7 against the Red Sox and Yankees by Mother's Day a year ago and won just 16 of their first 30 games.
The Jays have won 20 of their first 30 games, and they've got an ace who's a combined 27-17 with a 3.72 ERA in his career against the Red Sox and Yankees.
They might yet fade. But don't count on it.
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
Pitching with two strikes
Part of being a young pitcher is learning how to pitch in certain situations. One of those situations is when you're in command of the count -- if you can't put a guy away when you've got him in an 0-2 hole, when can you put a guy away?
Pitchers certainly have the advantage when the count is 0-2. So far this season, American League hitters have hit .179 on an 0-2 count, .172 on a 1-2 count and .191 on a 2-2 count. Pitchers do give up hits on 0-2, but it's safe to assume that those hits, if the pitchers are doing their job, are fluky, off-the-end-of-the-bat- or jam-shot-type hits.
If a pitcher has two strikes on a guy, he's in control -- and that means he has to pitch like he's in control. Justin Masterson didn't do that in a big spot on Wednesday night.
Victor Martinez had just given the Indians a one-run lead with a two-out double to dead center field on which Jonathan Van Every nearly killed himself trying to make a play. There still were two outs; Shin-Soo Choo was at the plate with a chance to drive home a key insurance run.
The at-bat did not start well for Choo.
Masterson jumped ahead early with a slider low that was fouled off and a sinker on the inner half that was taken for a strike. All of a sudden, Masterson was in total control. The inning was all but over. All Masterson had to do was make one more pitch.
He didn't make that pitch. His next pitch, a pitch he needed to throw pretty much anywhere except over the middle of the plate, was a slider right over the middle of the plate. Choo ripped it into right field for a line-drive single, and Martinez scored.
Just like that, a one-run game had turned into a two-run game.
Masterson said after the game that he'd meant for the slider to end up on Choo's back foot and not, as you can imagine, out over the plate.
"Hopefully, soon enough, my pitches will start listening to me and doing what they're supposed to," he said with a sheepish smile.
An inning later, though, Masterson did get the results he wanted. He went 0-2 on Ben Francisco and threw three straight pithces out of the zone -- a sinker high, a sinker inside and a slider outside. Francisco, as a hitter down 0-2 tends to do, chased all three pitches; he fouled off the first two and swung and missed at the third.
Kelly Shoppach took a first-pitch ball but fouled off a sinker and took a sinker for a strike to fall into a quick 1-2 hole. Masterson again did what he had to do; he threw a sinker up and in that Shoppach fouled off, and he threw a slider that never came close to ending up in the strike zone. Shoppach chased it, of course, and struck out to end the inning.
The Indians' three-run seventh inning rendered Shoo's run-scoring single pretty insignificant in the big scheme of things.
At the time, though, it was a big run -- and by leaving an 0-2 pitch over the middle of the plate, Masterson essentially handed the Indians that run.
Pitchers certainly have the advantage when the count is 0-2. So far this season, American League hitters have hit .179 on an 0-2 count, .172 on a 1-2 count and .191 on a 2-2 count. Pitchers do give up hits on 0-2, but it's safe to assume that those hits, if the pitchers are doing their job, are fluky, off-the-end-of-the-bat- or jam-shot-type hits.
If a pitcher has two strikes on a guy, he's in control -- and that means he has to pitch like he's in control. Justin Masterson didn't do that in a big spot on Wednesday night.
Victor Martinez had just given the Indians a one-run lead with a two-out double to dead center field on which Jonathan Van Every nearly killed himself trying to make a play. There still were two outs; Shin-Soo Choo was at the plate with a chance to drive home a key insurance run.
The at-bat did not start well for Choo.
Masterson jumped ahead early with a slider low that was fouled off and a sinker on the inner half that was taken for a strike. All of a sudden, Masterson was in total control. The inning was all but over. All Masterson had to do was make one more pitch.
He didn't make that pitch. His next pitch, a pitch he needed to throw pretty much anywhere except over the middle of the plate, was a slider right over the middle of the plate. Choo ripped it into right field for a line-drive single, and Martinez scored.
Just like that, a one-run game had turned into a two-run game.
Masterson said after the game that he'd meant for the slider to end up on Choo's back foot and not, as you can imagine, out over the plate.
"Hopefully, soon enough, my pitches will start listening to me and doing what they're supposed to," he said with a sheepish smile.
An inning later, though, Masterson did get the results he wanted. He went 0-2 on Ben Francisco and threw three straight pithces out of the zone -- a sinker high, a sinker inside and a slider outside. Francisco, as a hitter down 0-2 tends to do, chased all three pitches; he fouled off the first two and swung and missed at the third.
Kelly Shoppach took a first-pitch ball but fouled off a sinker and took a sinker for a strike to fall into a quick 1-2 hole. Masterson again did what he had to do; he threw a sinker up and in that Shoppach fouled off, and he threw a slider that never came close to ending up in the strike zone. Shoppach chased it, of course, and struck out to end the inning.
The Indians' three-run seventh inning rendered Shoo's run-scoring single pretty insignificant in the big scheme of things.
At the time, though, it was a big run -- and by leaving an 0-2 pitch over the middle of the plate, Masterson essentially handed the Indians that run.
More on Lester and his ratios
Yes, there's a baseball game that's starting in a few minutes upon which Jon Lester will have no impact. But there's an interesting comparison between Lester and CC Sabathia that's been brought up over at WalkOffWalk.com that's worth repeating here:
The baserunners seem to be coming in clumps for Lester and he's given up a handful of big innings. Spreading that out will bring down those ERs allowed.
Using this metric, Carsten Charles is significantly lagging behind Lester at this admittedly early stage. Dude is rocking a mere 1.6 K/BB ratio and his current WHIP would be the highest of his career. He's a notoriously slow starter, but striking out 5.5 per 9 isn't exactly what the Yankees signed him for. But hey, they can do whatever they want with their money. It's their life.
Kris Liakos, half of the WalkOffWalk team, is excited because he's bet Rob Ircane, the other half of the WalkOffWalk team, that Lester will have a better ERA+ so far this season than Sabathia. So far, they're tied at 99 apiece. The loser of the bet has to videotape himself singing Bon Jovi and post it online. (Strangely, this is seen as a punishment. "And I'm wanted.... WAAAAAANT...ed... dead or UH... live..." I'm sorry. What were we talking about again?)
Rob shoots back: I love it when Kris pretends to know what stats mean. Sabathia still has a lower ERA and has given up just two tater tots to Lester's bloated seven. Warm up those vocal chords, Chachi.
Sorry, Rob, but what we're looking at is indicators of future performance. Among those indicators:
BAPIP
Lester: .365
Sabathia: .298
(Hits are falling in against Lester that aren't falling in against Sabathia. Point to Lester.)
K/BB ratio
Lester: 43-12
Sabathia: 24-15
(Point to Lester.)
Line-drive percentage
Lester: 21 percent
Sabathia: 22 percent
(Call it a draw.)
Swing-and-a-miss percentage
Lester: 19 percent
Sabathia: 15 percent
(Point to Lester.)
You get the picture.
The baserunners seem to be coming in clumps for Lester and he's given up a handful of big innings. Spreading that out will bring down those ERs allowed.
Using this metric, Carsten Charles is significantly lagging behind Lester at this admittedly early stage. Dude is rocking a mere 1.6 K/BB ratio and his current WHIP would be the highest of his career. He's a notoriously slow starter, but striking out 5.5 per 9 isn't exactly what the Yankees signed him for. But hey, they can do whatever they want with their money. It's their life.
Kris Liakos, half of the WalkOffWalk team, is excited because he's bet Rob Ircane, the other half of the WalkOffWalk team, that Lester will have a better ERA+ so far this season than Sabathia. So far, they're tied at 99 apiece. The loser of the bet has to videotape himself singing Bon Jovi and post it online. (Strangely, this is seen as a punishment. "And I'm wanted.... WAAAAAANT...ed... dead or UH... live..." I'm sorry. What were we talking about again?)
Rob shoots back: I love it when Kris pretends to know what stats mean. Sabathia still has a lower ERA and has given up just two tater tots to Lester's bloated seven. Warm up those vocal chords, Chachi.
Sorry, Rob, but what we're looking at is indicators of future performance. Among those indicators:
BAPIP
Lester: .365
Sabathia: .298
(Hits are falling in against Lester that aren't falling in against Sabathia. Point to Lester.)
K/BB ratio
Lester: 43-12
Sabathia: 24-15
(Point to Lester.)
Line-drive percentage
Lester: 21 percent
Sabathia: 22 percent
(Call it a draw.)
Swing-and-a-miss percentage
Lester: 19 percent
Sabathia: 15 percent
(Point to Lester.)
You get the picture.
Lowrie back, optimistic about wrist rehab
Jed Lowrie was sporting two new accessories when he made his first appearance in the Fenway Park clubhouse since his April 21 wrist surgery: A cast on his left wrist to keep everything immobile while he's not rehabbing -- and a goatee.
Neither is likely to be featured on the bobblehead doll that will be given to Portland SeaDogs fans on June 17; Lowrie, who hadn't yet been told that the promotion was officially on the schedule, said he's just hoping that his bobblehead would be more accurate than that of Jacoby Ellsbury -- a bobblehead that was "righthanded and blond," he said.
Lowrie could see for himself if he wants, but he might not be available. Doctors have told him he'll need between six and eight weeks to recover enough to play again, and June 17 will be the day after he hits the eight-week mark.
For now, he's working on strength and range of motion; he's been getting massages and doing stretching exercises to work on both of those things. If all goes well, he expects to start swinging a bat by the end of the month.
"That's really dependent on how it feels," he said. "That's not something that's they can set in stone; it's really how my body reacts to the operation and the procedure and the rehab."
He had a chance to watch the Red Sox on TV a couple of times while he was in Arizona -- and that often was as much torture as it was fun.
"I want to see how everybody's doing and I want to keep updated," he said, "but it was hard watching. My stomach's churning because I want to be out there."
The big question, of course, remains unanswered: Is the wrist issue that plagued him last fall and into this spring fixed for good?
"You can never be 100 percent sure with surgery," he said. "But I feel confident going forward that what I did was the right decision considering that I tried every other option. I tried rest. I tried rehab. I tried cortisone. They worked, but I don't have the luxury of waiting for six months or a year to let the scar tissue form around that bone. I feel like after all of my options were extinguished, this was the right choice."
In theory, surgery could have fixed the issue over the winter so he wouldn't have to be doing his rehabilitation during the season.
But that's not something he's thinking about now.
"It looks like that now, that it would have been a lot easier to do that then," he said. "But surgery is not something I want to just jump into. I hadn't tried the rehab and rest over the offseason, and that worked. It was getting better. But I didn't have the luxury of waiting as long as it takes for it to completely heal.
"Regretting what I did this offseason is a waste of time at this point. All I can do is go forward from here."
Neither is likely to be featured on the bobblehead doll that will be given to Portland SeaDogs fans on June 17; Lowrie, who hadn't yet been told that the promotion was officially on the schedule, said he's just hoping that his bobblehead would be more accurate than that of Jacoby Ellsbury -- a bobblehead that was "righthanded and blond," he said.
Lowrie could see for himself if he wants, but he might not be available. Doctors have told him he'll need between six and eight weeks to recover enough to play again, and June 17 will be the day after he hits the eight-week mark.
For now, he's working on strength and range of motion; he's been getting massages and doing stretching exercises to work on both of those things. If all goes well, he expects to start swinging a bat by the end of the month.
"That's really dependent on how it feels," he said. "That's not something that's they can set in stone; it's really how my body reacts to the operation and the procedure and the rehab."
He had a chance to watch the Red Sox on TV a couple of times while he was in Arizona -- and that often was as much torture as it was fun.
"I want to see how everybody's doing and I want to keep updated," he said, "but it was hard watching. My stomach's churning because I want to be out there."
The big question, of course, remains unanswered: Is the wrist issue that plagued him last fall and into this spring fixed for good?
"You can never be 100 percent sure with surgery," he said. "But I feel confident going forward that what I did was the right decision considering that I tried every other option. I tried rest. I tried rehab. I tried cortisone. They worked, but I don't have the luxury of waiting for six months or a year to let the scar tissue form around that bone. I feel like after all of my options were extinguished, this was the right choice."
In theory, surgery could have fixed the issue over the winter so he wouldn't have to be doing his rehabilitation during the season.
But that's not something he's thinking about now.
"It looks like that now, that it would have been a lot easier to do that then," he said. "But surgery is not something I want to just jump into. I hadn't tried the rehab and rest over the offseason, and that worked. It was getting better. But I didn't have the luxury of waiting as long as it takes for it to completely heal.
"Regretting what I did this offseason is a waste of time at this point. All I can do is go forward from here."
Red Sox playing with a short bench
Nagging tightness in the hamstring of Jacoby Ellsbury and the left side of Kevin Youkilis has left the Red Sox a little shorthanded in terms of position players. Jeff Bailey (first base), Nick Green (shortstop) and Jonathan Van Every (center field) both are in the lineup; George Kottaras and Julio Lugo are the only position players who will be available off the bench today.
Terry Francona, however, was dismissive when a reporter asked if he felt limited in his ability to pinch-hit.
"Who would you pinch-hit for?" he said. "It's not like we lead the league in pinch-hits. We really don't do that a whole lot. That's not the biggest concern."
Another reporter brought up the idea of defensive substitutions.
"We really don't do that, either," he said with a chuckle. "Wej ust kind of run our guys out there and hopefully are good enough."
Youkilis will miss his second straight game with tightness in his left side he first felt a couple of weeks ago but didn't bring up until Monday night in New York. Ellsbury was removed from Tuesday night's game against the Yankees with tightness in his hamstring; he's closer to returning to the lineup than Youkilis, but he'll miss his first game of the season tonight with an eye on playing on Thursday.
In the event of an injury, it's likely that Lugo would come into the game and play shortstop to allow Nick Green to move, well, pretty much anywhere else. Green has played all four infield positions and right field in his big-league career.
Bailey is hitting .118 in 17 at-bats since his call-up. Van Every has two hits in eight at-bats, including his dramatic home run in Cleveland. Neither has a solid grasp on a roster spot; both are keeping warm spots that belong to Mark Kotsay and Rocco Baldelli, respectively.
But if the Red Sox didn't feel comfortable playing them, they wouldn't be on the roster.
"I don't want our guys to ever feel like we're afraid to use them or, 'We don't think we can win when we play you,' somebody that's not necessarily a regular," Francona said. "I don't know that that works, either."
Terry Francona, however, was dismissive when a reporter asked if he felt limited in his ability to pinch-hit.
"Who would you pinch-hit for?" he said. "It's not like we lead the league in pinch-hits. We really don't do that a whole lot. That's not the biggest concern."
Another reporter brought up the idea of defensive substitutions.
"We really don't do that, either," he said with a chuckle. "Wej ust kind of run our guys out there and hopefully are good enough."
Youkilis will miss his second straight game with tightness in his left side he first felt a couple of weeks ago but didn't bring up until Monday night in New York. Ellsbury was removed from Tuesday night's game against the Yankees with tightness in his hamstring; he's closer to returning to the lineup than Youkilis, but he'll miss his first game of the season tonight with an eye on playing on Thursday.
In the event of an injury, it's likely that Lugo would come into the game and play shortstop to allow Nick Green to move, well, pretty much anywhere else. Green has played all four infield positions and right field in his big-league career.
Bailey is hitting .118 in 17 at-bats since his call-up. Van Every has two hits in eight at-bats, including his dramatic home run in Cleveland. Neither has a solid grasp on a roster spot; both are keeping warm spots that belong to Mark Kotsay and Rocco Baldelli, respectively.
But if the Red Sox didn't feel comfortable playing them, they wouldn't be on the roster.
"I don't want our guys to ever feel like we're afraid to use them or, 'We don't think we can win when we play you,' somebody that's not necessarily a regular," Francona said. "I don't know that that works, either."
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Pedroia doubling his way into elite company
Dustin Pedroia's seventh-inning double on Tuesday was his ninth of the season; he's now on pace to match last year's total of 54.
In doubling that often last season, the hard-swinging second baseman already has done something that's only been done 83 times in the history of baseball. If he repeat the feat this year, though, that would land him among some pretty big-name talent.
The entire list of players to hit 50 doubles in back-to-back seasons:
1. Tris Speaker, 1920-21*
2. George Burns, 1926-27
3. Billy Herman, 1935-36*
4. Joe Medwick, 1936-37*
5. Edgar Martinez, 1995-96
6. Craig Biggio, 1998-99
7. Todd Helton, 2000-01
8. Albert Pujols, 2003-04
(*denotes Hall of Famer)
That's it. That's the entire list.
(In case you're wondering: Pedroia would have to turn on the jets to break the Red Sox record for doubles in a season -- which, incidentally, happens to be the big-league record as well. Earl Webb doubled 67 times in 1931. Nomar Garciaparra's 56 doubles in 2002 ranks him second in Red Sox history; Pedroia's 54 doubles last season is good for third.)
In doubling that often last season, the hard-swinging second baseman already has done something that's only been done 83 times in the history of baseball. If he repeat the feat this year, though, that would land him among some pretty big-name talent.
The entire list of players to hit 50 doubles in back-to-back seasons:
1. Tris Speaker, 1920-21*
2. George Burns, 1926-27
3. Billy Herman, 1935-36*
4. Joe Medwick, 1936-37*
5. Edgar Martinez, 1995-96
6. Craig Biggio, 1998-99
7. Todd Helton, 2000-01
8. Albert Pujols, 2003-04
(*denotes Hall of Famer)
That's it. That's the entire list.
(In case you're wondering: Pedroia would have to turn on the jets to break the Red Sox record for doubles in a season -- which, incidentally, happens to be the big-league record as well. Earl Webb doubled 67 times in 1931. Nomar Garciaparra's 56 doubles in 2002 ranks him second in Red Sox history; Pedroia's 54 doubles last season is good for third.)
Lester in elite company early on
Yes, Jon Lester still has a 5.11 ERA.
But if you consider the company in which his early-season strikeout numbers leave him, you have to believe he's well on his way to better days. Tomorrow's Union Leader story will reference an elite group of pitchers -- nine in total -- who have a K/BB ratio of 3.0 or better and a K/9IP ratio of 9.0 or better. That means they're striking out more than a batter an inning and still striking out more than three times as many hitters as they're walking.
Here's the group:
* Zack Grienke, 0.40 ERA
* Johan Santana, 1.10 ERA
* Dan Haren, 1.47 ERA
* Erik Bedard, 2.61 ERA
(How come no one's talking about the start Bedard has had for the Mariners so far this season?)
* Tim Lincecum, 3.16 ERA
* Felix Hernandez, 3.38 ERA
* Javier Vazquez, 4.19 ERA
* Jon Lester, 5.11 ERA
* Justin Verlander, 5.66 ERA
That's some impressive company Lester is in -- and a pretty good indication that he's still on track to turn in the Cy Young-caliber season many expected from him.
But if you consider the company in which his early-season strikeout numbers leave him, you have to believe he's well on his way to better days. Tomorrow's Union Leader story will reference an elite group of pitchers -- nine in total -- who have a K/BB ratio of 3.0 or better and a K/9IP ratio of 9.0 or better. That means they're striking out more than a batter an inning and still striking out more than three times as many hitters as they're walking.
Here's the group:
* Zack Grienke, 0.40 ERA
* Johan Santana, 1.10 ERA
* Dan Haren, 1.47 ERA
* Erik Bedard, 2.61 ERA
(How come no one's talking about the start Bedard has had for the Mariners so far this season?)
* Tim Lincecum, 3.16 ERA
* Felix Hernandez, 3.38 ERA
* Javier Vazquez, 4.19 ERA
* Jon Lester, 5.11 ERA
* Justin Verlander, 5.66 ERA
That's some impressive company Lester is in -- and a pretty good indication that he's still on track to turn in the Cy Young-caliber season many expected from him.
Ramirez, Delcarmen and Van Every
Need a reason why the Red Sox and Blue Jays are atop the American League East?
It's as simple as this.
If you click on that link, you'll find a list of American League relievers who have given up either one earned run or zero earned runs so far this season, sorted by innings pitched. At the top of the list is Ramon Ramirez, who has thrown 15 1/3 innings this season and just allowed his first earned run on Monday. Right behind Ramirez is Manny Delcarmen, who has thrown 14 1/3 innings and just allowed his first earned run on Sunday.
Right behind Delcarmen is Toronto's Scott Downs, who has thrown 13 2/3 innings and allowed just one earned run on the season. And only a little way further down the list is the Blue Jays' Jason Frasor, whose 11 scoreless innings out of the bullpen this season ranks second in the American League.
(The last name on the list, the American Leaguer who has thrown the fewest innings this season without having allowed an earned run? Jonathan Van Every.)
But both teams face the same issues with their bullpens.
The Blue Jays, save for Roy Halladay, have next to no starting pitching. So far this season, in fact, they have a 4.77 ERA and are allowing opponents to slug .455 against them; they're averaging less than six innings a start. Former independent-league pitcher Scott Richmond has a 2.67 ERA, but he also had a 4.92 ERA in 16 starts with the Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats a year ago, so take that with a grain of salt.
The Red Sox, as we've discussed, aren't getting much from their starting pitchers, either. As a group, even after last night's gem from Jon Lester, they've got a 5.66 ERA and are averaging less than 5 2/3 innings per start.
Ramirez and Delcarmen for Boston, as well as Downs and Frasor for Toronto, have pitched sensationally thus far. But Downs is on pace to throw almost 80 innings this season, his highest total in four years; Frasor on pace to throw more than 68 innings, likewise his highest total in four years.
Ramirez, on the other hand, is on pace to throw more than 95 innings this season -- more than 20 innings past his career high. Delcarmen is on pace to throw 89 1/3 innings this season, more than 15 innings beyond his career high.
Both teams have surged to hot starts on the strength of outstanding relief pitching. If they don't get more help from their starting pitchers, though, they're not going to have much left in the bullpen come August and September.
It's as simple as this.
If you click on that link, you'll find a list of American League relievers who have given up either one earned run or zero earned runs so far this season, sorted by innings pitched. At the top of the list is Ramon Ramirez, who has thrown 15 1/3 innings this season and just allowed his first earned run on Monday. Right behind Ramirez is Manny Delcarmen, who has thrown 14 1/3 innings and just allowed his first earned run on Sunday.
Right behind Delcarmen is Toronto's Scott Downs, who has thrown 13 2/3 innings and allowed just one earned run on the season. And only a little way further down the list is the Blue Jays' Jason Frasor, whose 11 scoreless innings out of the bullpen this season ranks second in the American League.
(The last name on the list, the American Leaguer who has thrown the fewest innings this season without having allowed an earned run? Jonathan Van Every.)
But both teams face the same issues with their bullpens.
The Blue Jays, save for Roy Halladay, have next to no starting pitching. So far this season, in fact, they have a 4.77 ERA and are allowing opponents to slug .455 against them; they're averaging less than six innings a start. Former independent-league pitcher Scott Richmond has a 2.67 ERA, but he also had a 4.92 ERA in 16 starts with the Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats a year ago, so take that with a grain of salt.
The Red Sox, as we've discussed, aren't getting much from their starting pitchers, either. As a group, even after last night's gem from Jon Lester, they've got a 5.66 ERA and are averaging less than 5 2/3 innings per start.
Ramirez and Delcarmen for Boston, as well as Downs and Frasor for Toronto, have pitched sensationally thus far. But Downs is on pace to throw almost 80 innings this season, his highest total in four years; Frasor on pace to throw more than 68 innings, likewise his highest total in four years.
Ramirez, on the other hand, is on pace to throw more than 95 innings this season -- more than 20 innings past his career high. Delcarmen is on pace to throw 89 1/3 innings this season, more than 15 innings beyond his career high.
Both teams have surged to hot starts on the strength of outstanding relief pitching. If they don't get more help from their starting pitchers, though, they're not going to have much left in the bullpen come August and September.
Monday, May 4, 2009
Ground balls and David Ortiz
We all can see that David Ortiz isn't David Ortiz so far this season.
But as we did through some of his hitting ratios -- yes, we're on a ratios kick here at OneIf headquarters -- some surprising results have emerged.
Here's a sampling:
* Ortiz is walking in 10.5 percent of his at-bats; he's walked in 15.7 percent of his at-bats over the last four years.
(Funny thing: He walked in just 11.2 percent of his at-bats in 2004 -- and he hit .301 with 41 home runs and 139 RBI and put the Red Sox on his back in the postseason.)
* Ortiz is striking out in 20.2 percent of his at-bats; he struck out in 16.4 percent of his at-bats over the last four years.
(Another funny thing: He struck out in 19.9 percent of his at-bats in 2004.)
Walks and strikeouts, then, aren't as big of a deal as you might think. He's striking out more often than he has over the last few years, but he's also striking out just as much as he did when he had an MVP-caliber season in 2004. Same goes with his walks. That's not the problem.
* Over the last four years, Ortiz's ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio was 0.55. This year, though, it's 0.31 -- which means that, for the first time in his career, he's hitting the ball in the air more than he's hitting the ball on the ground.
That seems a little odd for a guy whose biggest concern still is the big fat zero in the "HR" column. But Ortiz's ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio normally is far closer to 50-50.
Why is that?
For one thing, when he's hit the ball in the air this season, it's generally landed in a glove somewhere -- in part because 19 percent of his fly balls, almost double his career average before this season, are being caught on the infield.
For another thing, think about the mechanics of his swing. If he's late on pitches, he's probably going to pop them up; when he's bringing the bat through the zone, he's going to be underneath the ball and end up either fouling it off or lofting it weakly into a waiting glove.
(To wit: Just 14 percent of the balls he's put in play have been line drives -- the average major-league player hits line drives 19 percent of the time, and Ortiz didn't dip below 17 percent in any of his first six seasons with the Red Sox.)
But if he's on time with his swing -- as he just demonstrated with a first-inning double against Phil Hughes at Yankee Stadium tonight -- he's on top of the ball and hitting it low and hard somewhere. The more often he hits the ball on the ground, the better chance it has to find a hole in the infield somewhere.
Home runs are great, but if you start seeing Ortiz hitting the ball on the ground, you can start to believe there's light at the end of the tunnel.
But as we did through some of his hitting ratios -- yes, we're on a ratios kick here at OneIf headquarters -- some surprising results have emerged.
Here's a sampling:
* Ortiz is walking in 10.5 percent of his at-bats; he's walked in 15.7 percent of his at-bats over the last four years.
(Funny thing: He walked in just 11.2 percent of his at-bats in 2004 -- and he hit .301 with 41 home runs and 139 RBI and put the Red Sox on his back in the postseason.)
* Ortiz is striking out in 20.2 percent of his at-bats; he struck out in 16.4 percent of his at-bats over the last four years.
(Another funny thing: He struck out in 19.9 percent of his at-bats in 2004.)
Walks and strikeouts, then, aren't as big of a deal as you might think. He's striking out more often than he has over the last few years, but he's also striking out just as much as he did when he had an MVP-caliber season in 2004. Same goes with his walks. That's not the problem.
* Over the last four years, Ortiz's ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio was 0.55. This year, though, it's 0.31 -- which means that, for the first time in his career, he's hitting the ball in the air more than he's hitting the ball on the ground.
That seems a little odd for a guy whose biggest concern still is the big fat zero in the "HR" column. But Ortiz's ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio normally is far closer to 50-50.
Why is that?
For one thing, when he's hit the ball in the air this season, it's generally landed in a glove somewhere -- in part because 19 percent of his fly balls, almost double his career average before this season, are being caught on the infield.
For another thing, think about the mechanics of his swing. If he's late on pitches, he's probably going to pop them up; when he's bringing the bat through the zone, he's going to be underneath the ball and end up either fouling it off or lofting it weakly into a waiting glove.
(To wit: Just 14 percent of the balls he's put in play have been line drives -- the average major-league player hits line drives 19 percent of the time, and Ortiz didn't dip below 17 percent in any of his first six seasons with the Red Sox.)
But if he's on time with his swing -- as he just demonstrated with a first-inning double against Phil Hughes at Yankee Stadium tonight -- he's on top of the ball and hitting it low and hard somewhere. The more often he hits the ball on the ground, the better chance it has to find a hole in the infield somewhere.
Home runs are great, but if you start seeing Ortiz hitting the ball on the ground, you can start to believe there's light at the end of the tunnel.
Clay Buchholz and bad luck
The discussion about how bad luck has affected Jon Lester so far this season sparked some thoughts about Clay Buchholz. We all know the story; the gangly righty threw a no-hitter as a rookie two years ago but ran into big-time trouble a year ago when he opened the season in the Red Sox rotation.
His final line for the season included a 2-9 record and a 6.75 ERA. If not for that disaster, he'd likely be pitching in the Red Sox rotation right now.
Instead, he's four starts into his season at Triple-A Pawtucket; he earned his first win of the season with 5 1/3 scoreless innings on Sunday, and he now has a 1.80 ERA in 20 innings pitched and has twice as many strikeouts as walks.
Confidence, clearly, has much to do with how the Red Sox are handling Buchholz. A couple of rough early outings -- he allowed seven earned runs in 3 2/3 innings at Yankee Stadium in mid-April -- messed badly with the young pitcher's psyche, and another disaster might finish off his self-belief for good.
But is another disaster likely?
No, it's not.
* Buchholz saw hitters hit .299 against him in his 76 innings pitched a year ago; his BAPIP (batting average on balls put in play) was .355. That's bound to come down.
* He struck out 71 and walked 40 in his 16 starts -- and that came after he struck out 98 and walked 30 in two Triple-A stints and struck out 134 and walked 23 in two Double-A stints. That's a promising ratio.
* He allowed 11 home runs in 76 innings pitched -- approximately a home run every seven innings -- despite allowing 24 home runs in 344 1/3 innings in the minor leagues. He's not a home-run-prone pitcher.
Buchholz had a really rough debut a year ago. A lot of that, though, had to do with bad breaks -- and when he gets another shot, likely later this season, he's got the law of averages on his side.
His final line for the season included a 2-9 record and a 6.75 ERA. If not for that disaster, he'd likely be pitching in the Red Sox rotation right now.
Instead, he's four starts into his season at Triple-A Pawtucket; he earned his first win of the season with 5 1/3 scoreless innings on Sunday, and he now has a 1.80 ERA in 20 innings pitched and has twice as many strikeouts as walks.
Confidence, clearly, has much to do with how the Red Sox are handling Buchholz. A couple of rough early outings -- he allowed seven earned runs in 3 2/3 innings at Yankee Stadium in mid-April -- messed badly with the young pitcher's psyche, and another disaster might finish off his self-belief for good.
But is another disaster likely?
No, it's not.
* Buchholz saw hitters hit .299 against him in his 76 innings pitched a year ago; his BAPIP (batting average on balls put in play) was .355. That's bound to come down.
* He struck out 71 and walked 40 in his 16 starts -- and that came after he struck out 98 and walked 30 in two Triple-A stints and struck out 134 and walked 23 in two Double-A stints. That's a promising ratio.
* He allowed 11 home runs in 76 innings pitched -- approximately a home run every seven innings -- despite allowing 24 home runs in 344 1/3 innings in the minor leagues. He's not a home-run-prone pitcher.
Buchholz had a really rough debut a year ago. A lot of that, though, had to do with bad breaks -- and when he gets another shot, likely later this season, he's got the law of averages on his side.
Sunday, May 3, 2009
Red Sox pitching woes re-examined
OK, so we all know Red Sox starting pitchers haven't fared well this season. As a group, not including Brad Penny's solid outing today, they've got an ERA of 5.80 and are averaging less than 5 2/3 innings an outing.
With that in mind, check out this line and see if this is a guy you'd like to see pitching for the Red Sox in place of what they're throwing out there right now:
* Back-to-back quality starts against division rivals;
* A 33-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 30 innings pitched;
* A BAPIP (batting average on balls put in play) of .383, more than 80 points higher than the league average, a sign that he's had some tough luck and is in line for better days ahead.
Isn't that a guy you'd like to see pitching for the Red Sox?
That pitcher, of course, is Jon Lester.
Lester, right now, has a 5.40 ERA through five starts. Opponents are hitting .305 and slugging .492 against him. He's allowed five home runs this month after allowing just 14 home runs all of last season.
But he, like Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury in the early going, just might be the victim of a little bit of bad luck. Consider:
* That .383 batting average on balls in play indicates that Lester has been giving up more than his share of line drives, but it wouldn't be that high if he wasn't dealing with some bad luck, too. The Baltimore Orioles' staff has been hit pretty hard this season (to the tune of a 5.92 ERA), for example, but its combined BAPIP still is just .327.
Things tend to even out over the course of a long season, and Lester is in line to see some ground balls start rolling at infielders instead of between them. A year ago, in fact, Lester had a BAPIP of precisely .300; in his 12 starts the yeare before that, it was .280.
(In case you're wondering: Entering today's start, Brad Penny had a BAPIP of .288 -- a pretty clear sign that bad luck is not exactly the source of all of his early-season woes.)
* Entering this season, Lester had allowed home runs on 6.0 percent of the fly balls opponents had hit. This season, he's allowed home runs on 11.6 percent of the fly balls opponents have hit. This shows, in part, that opponents are hitting the ball harder; a jump that significant, though, isn't likely to sustain itself over the course of the year.
* Lester has always been more of a fly-ball pitcher than a ground-ball pitcher, but he's getting more outs on the ground than in the air -- and at a better ratio this season (1.6) than last season (1.32). His ratio of ground balls to fly balls (0.83) also isn't all that far off last year's pace (0.96).
He's also striking out a far higher percentage of hitters he's facing (25.4 percent; he struck out 17.4 percent of hitters last season) -- and that's not something that's as attributable to luck as a fly ball landing in a gap instead of an outfielder's glove.
(For some context on that: Josh Beckett struck out better than 23 percent of hitters he faced in 2007 and 2008 but is down to 21.1 percent this season. He struck out just 18.2 percent of hitters he faced in his first year with the Red Sox.)
* Lester started last season with an ERA of -- can you guess? -- 5.40 after his first six starts. He had an ERA of 2.82 the rest of the way. So there's that, too.
Red Sox pitchers haven't performed as most of us might have expected. But even though it feels like we've had enough time to evaluate everyone and decide who's great and who's terrible, well, we haven't.
With that in mind, check out this line and see if this is a guy you'd like to see pitching for the Red Sox in place of what they're throwing out there right now:
* Back-to-back quality starts against division rivals;
* A 33-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 30 innings pitched;
* A BAPIP (batting average on balls put in play) of .383, more than 80 points higher than the league average, a sign that he's had some tough luck and is in line for better days ahead.
Isn't that a guy you'd like to see pitching for the Red Sox?
That pitcher, of course, is Jon Lester.
Lester, right now, has a 5.40 ERA through five starts. Opponents are hitting .305 and slugging .492 against him. He's allowed five home runs this month after allowing just 14 home runs all of last season.
But he, like Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury in the early going, just might be the victim of a little bit of bad luck. Consider:
* That .383 batting average on balls in play indicates that Lester has been giving up more than his share of line drives, but it wouldn't be that high if he wasn't dealing with some bad luck, too. The Baltimore Orioles' staff has been hit pretty hard this season (to the tune of a 5.92 ERA), for example, but its combined BAPIP still is just .327.
Things tend to even out over the course of a long season, and Lester is in line to see some ground balls start rolling at infielders instead of between them. A year ago, in fact, Lester had a BAPIP of precisely .300; in his 12 starts the yeare before that, it was .280.
(In case you're wondering: Entering today's start, Brad Penny had a BAPIP of .288 -- a pretty clear sign that bad luck is not exactly the source of all of his early-season woes.)
* Entering this season, Lester had allowed home runs on 6.0 percent of the fly balls opponents had hit. This season, he's allowed home runs on 11.6 percent of the fly balls opponents have hit. This shows, in part, that opponents are hitting the ball harder; a jump that significant, though, isn't likely to sustain itself over the course of the year.
* Lester has always been more of a fly-ball pitcher than a ground-ball pitcher, but he's getting more outs on the ground than in the air -- and at a better ratio this season (1.6) than last season (1.32). His ratio of ground balls to fly balls (0.83) also isn't all that far off last year's pace (0.96).
He's also striking out a far higher percentage of hitters he's facing (25.4 percent; he struck out 17.4 percent of hitters last season) -- and that's not something that's as attributable to luck as a fly ball landing in a gap instead of an outfielder's glove.
(For some context on that: Josh Beckett struck out better than 23 percent of hitters he faced in 2007 and 2008 but is down to 21.1 percent this season. He struck out just 18.2 percent of hitters he faced in his first year with the Red Sox.)
* Lester started last season with an ERA of -- can you guess? -- 5.40 after his first six starts. He had an ERA of 2.82 the rest of the way. So there's that, too.
Red Sox pitchers haven't performed as most of us might have expected. But even though it feels like we've had enough time to evaluate everyone and decide who's great and who's terrible, well, we haven't.
Saturday, May 2, 2009
John Farrell has some work to do
It appeared, as spring training unfolded and the season began, that Red Sox pitching coach John Farrell had the easiest job in the world. He was in charge of making sure that Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka and a stable of talented relief pitchers did just one thing: Pitch well. His job, it seemed, was going to consist of a lot of butt-pats and go-get-'ems.
But that's suddenly very, very far from the case.
Those talented relief pitchers have done just what they've been asked to do. Red Sox relievers, in fact, have a 2.81 ERA and have held opponents to a .227 batting average. Manny Delcarmen hasn't allowed an earned run in 14 innings this season; Ramon Ramirez hasn't allowed a run of any kind dating back to last September.
But the starting rotation -- the Beckett-led, Lester-led, Matsuzaka-led rotation that was supposed to be the class of the American League -- has faltered in a big way, and it's time for Farrell to earn his money. The Red Sox are winning games in spite of their starting pitching -- not because of their starting pitching.
So far this season:
* Beckett has a 7.22 ERA and 5.0 walks per nine innings;
* Lester has a 5.40 ERA and a .305 batting-average-against;
* Matsuzaka has a 12.79 ERA and is on the disabled list;
* Brad Penny has an 8.66 ERA and has almost as many home runs allowed (five) as strikeouts (six);
* As a team, counting Tim Wakefield's outing on Saturday, the Red Sox have just 10 quality starts in 24 games -- which means their starting pitcher has failed more than half the time to finish the sixth inning and/or hold the opponent to three runs or fewer.
Let's say it again: The Red Sox were supposed to win games because of their starting pitching. So far, they've won games in spite of their starting pitching.
When they get a quality start from their pitcher this season, as you might expect, the Red Sox have gone 9-1. But when they don't get a quality start, they're still treading water at 6-8 -- something you have to attribute both to the team's hitters and to its relievers.
In fact, the Red Sox have seen their starter allow at least five earned runs in each of their last four games -- and they've won two of those four games. That's not a trend that's going to keep up.
And that's going to have an impact on what so far has been a sensational bullpen, too. Delcarmen and Ramirez have been pretty much untouchable, but both are on pace to pitch upwards of 94 innings this season; Jonathan Papelbon already is on pace to best his career high in innings pitched, too.
Red Sox pitchers are averaging around 5 2/3 innings per start; only Wakefield is averaging better than six innings when he takes the ball. Even worse, the group has needed an average of close to 100 pitches to get those 5 2/3 innings -- it's like the entire staff has been brainwashed by Matsuzaka.
The Red Sox have survived subpar starting pitching thus far thanks mostly to a friendly schedule that has allowed them to feast on the Orioles, Indians and a shorthanded Yankees team. (Seriously: Jorge Posada hit cleanup. That's not the same lineup you're going to see from the Yankees in September.)
Pitching coach John Farrell has some serious work to do. You can't win a pennant, let alone a World Series, when your starting pitchers have a 5.68 ERA.
But that's suddenly very, very far from the case.
Those talented relief pitchers have done just what they've been asked to do. Red Sox relievers, in fact, have a 2.81 ERA and have held opponents to a .227 batting average. Manny Delcarmen hasn't allowed an earned run in 14 innings this season; Ramon Ramirez hasn't allowed a run of any kind dating back to last September.
But the starting rotation -- the Beckett-led, Lester-led, Matsuzaka-led rotation that was supposed to be the class of the American League -- has faltered in a big way, and it's time for Farrell to earn his money. The Red Sox are winning games in spite of their starting pitching -- not because of their starting pitching.
So far this season:
* Beckett has a 7.22 ERA and 5.0 walks per nine innings;
* Lester has a 5.40 ERA and a .305 batting-average-against;
* Matsuzaka has a 12.79 ERA and is on the disabled list;
* Brad Penny has an 8.66 ERA and has almost as many home runs allowed (five) as strikeouts (six);
* As a team, counting Tim Wakefield's outing on Saturday, the Red Sox have just 10 quality starts in 24 games -- which means their starting pitcher has failed more than half the time to finish the sixth inning and/or hold the opponent to three runs or fewer.
Let's say it again: The Red Sox were supposed to win games because of their starting pitching. So far, they've won games in spite of their starting pitching.
When they get a quality start from their pitcher this season, as you might expect, the Red Sox have gone 9-1. But when they don't get a quality start, they're still treading water at 6-8 -- something you have to attribute both to the team's hitters and to its relievers.
In fact, the Red Sox have seen their starter allow at least five earned runs in each of their last four games -- and they've won two of those four games. That's not a trend that's going to keep up.
And that's going to have an impact on what so far has been a sensational bullpen, too. Delcarmen and Ramirez have been pretty much untouchable, but both are on pace to pitch upwards of 94 innings this season; Jonathan Papelbon already is on pace to best his career high in innings pitched, too.
Red Sox pitchers are averaging around 5 2/3 innings per start; only Wakefield is averaging better than six innings when he takes the ball. Even worse, the group has needed an average of close to 100 pitches to get those 5 2/3 innings -- it's like the entire staff has been brainwashed by Matsuzaka.
The Red Sox have survived subpar starting pitching thus far thanks mostly to a friendly schedule that has allowed them to feast on the Orioles, Indians and a shorthanded Yankees team. (Seriously: Jorge Posada hit cleanup. That's not the same lineup you're going to see from the Yankees in September.)
Pitching coach John Farrell has some serious work to do. You can't win a pennant, let alone a World Series, when your starting pitchers have a 5.68 ERA.
Putting Jason Varitek's April in perspective
April is in the books, and it's easy to point to Jason Varitek's power numbers as reasons why we should be optimistic about the Red Sox's veteran catcher:
* .250 batting average
* .348 on-base percentage
* .533 slugging percentage
* Five doubles
* Four home runs
* 10 RBI
* Seven walks
* Nine strikeouts
But let's compare that to Varitek's April a year ago:
* .273 batting average
* .324 on-base percentage
* .485 slugging percentage
* Five doubles
* Three home runs
* Seven RBI
* Four walks
* 13 strikeouts
(This excludes Varitek's two games in March in Japan; he went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts in each of those games. If you include those two games, his average falls to .243, his on-base percentage to .291 and his slugging percentage to .432.)
In May, Varitek hit even better: A .299 batting average with a .407 on-base percentage and a .506 slugging percentage. It wasn't until June (.122 batting average) and July (.197 batting average) that things really started to go downhill for the Red Sox catcher. His home run totals tumbled right along with his batting average:
* March/April: 3 home runs/.432 slugging
* May: 3 home runs/.506 slugging
* June: 1 home run/.176 slugging
* July: 1 home run/.288 slugging
* August: 3 home runs/.431 slugging
* September: 2 home runs/.300 slugging
OK, so the power numbers aren't exactly an indication of great things to come. Varitek had three home runs in April a year ago and six home runs on Memorial Day and still finished the year looking like he was throwing the hammer instead of swinging a bat.
But what about those walks and strikeouts?
Varitek drew seven walks in his first 16 games and struck out just nine times. It was the first time in two seasons his walk/strikeout numbers have been so close together; it was the first time since April of 2006 that he's struck out fewer than 10 times in a month.
Check out these monthly totals -- and the batting averages that went with them:
2009
March/April: 7 walks/9 strikeouts (.250)
2008
* March/April: 4 walks/19 strikeouts (.243)
* May: 12 walks/20 strikeouts (.299)
* June: 8 walks/22 strikeouts (.122)
* July: 9 walks/22 strikeouts (.197)
* August: 12 walks/21 strikeouts (.264)
* September: 7 walks/18 strikeouts (.183)
2007
* March/April: 9 walks/15 strikeouts(.239)
* May: 12 walks/13 strikeouts (.311)
* June: 8 walks/26 strikeouts (.234)
* July: 12 walks/17 strikeouts (.294)
* August: 13 walks/23 strikeouts (.234)
* September: 17 walks/28 strikeouts (.222)
As is the case with any player, Varitek does hit better when he's walking more and striking out less. But the numbers still are striking: When he walked more than 10 times and struck out 20 or fewer times in 2007 and 2008, he hit .294, .299 and .311. When he walked fewer than 10 times and/or struck out more than 20 times, well, he didn't exactly hit .294.
No one is expecting Varitek to hit close to .300 in any month this season. But the way he's cut down his strikeouts -- his nine whiffs this April were fewer than half his total in any month last year -- while maintaining decent walk totals and OBP numbers shows he's not necessarily on the steep downward slope many of us thought he was on.
In fact, when you look at his batting average on balls in play -- .234, by far the lowest on the team -- he might actually be due for a hot streak sometime soon.
* .250 batting average
* .348 on-base percentage
* .533 slugging percentage
* Five doubles
* Four home runs
* 10 RBI
* Seven walks
* Nine strikeouts
But let's compare that to Varitek's April a year ago:
* .273 batting average
* .324 on-base percentage
* .485 slugging percentage
* Five doubles
* Three home runs
* Seven RBI
* Four walks
* 13 strikeouts
(This excludes Varitek's two games in March in Japan; he went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts in each of those games. If you include those two games, his average falls to .243, his on-base percentage to .291 and his slugging percentage to .432.)
In May, Varitek hit even better: A .299 batting average with a .407 on-base percentage and a .506 slugging percentage. It wasn't until June (.122 batting average) and July (.197 batting average) that things really started to go downhill for the Red Sox catcher. His home run totals tumbled right along with his batting average:
* March/April: 3 home runs/.432 slugging
* May: 3 home runs/.506 slugging
* June: 1 home run/.176 slugging
* July: 1 home run/.288 slugging
* August: 3 home runs/.431 slugging
* September: 2 home runs/.300 slugging
OK, so the power numbers aren't exactly an indication of great things to come. Varitek had three home runs in April a year ago and six home runs on Memorial Day and still finished the year looking like he was throwing the hammer instead of swinging a bat.
But what about those walks and strikeouts?
Varitek drew seven walks in his first 16 games and struck out just nine times. It was the first time in two seasons his walk/strikeout numbers have been so close together; it was the first time since April of 2006 that he's struck out fewer than 10 times in a month.
Check out these monthly totals -- and the batting averages that went with them:
2009
March/April: 7 walks/9 strikeouts (.250)
2008
* March/April: 4 walks/19 strikeouts (.243)
* May: 12 walks/20 strikeouts (.299)
* June: 8 walks/22 strikeouts (.122)
* July: 9 walks/22 strikeouts (.197)
* August: 12 walks/21 strikeouts (.264)
* September: 7 walks/18 strikeouts (.183)
2007
* March/April: 9 walks/15 strikeouts(.239)
* May: 12 walks/13 strikeouts (.311)
* June: 8 walks/26 strikeouts (.234)
* July: 12 walks/17 strikeouts (.294)
* August: 13 walks/23 strikeouts (.234)
* September: 17 walks/28 strikeouts (.222)
As is the case with any player, Varitek does hit better when he's walking more and striking out less. But the numbers still are striking: When he walked more than 10 times and struck out 20 or fewer times in 2007 and 2008, he hit .294, .299 and .311. When he walked fewer than 10 times and/or struck out more than 20 times, well, he didn't exactly hit .294.
No one is expecting Varitek to hit close to .300 in any month this season. But the way he's cut down his strikeouts -- his nine whiffs this April were fewer than half his total in any month last year -- while maintaining decent walk totals and OBP numbers shows he's not necessarily on the steep downward slope many of us thought he was on.
In fact, when you look at his batting average on balls in play -- .234, by far the lowest on the team -- he might actually be due for a hot streak sometime soon.
Friday, May 1, 2009
Breaking balls to Longoria doom Beckett
Josh Beckett turned in his worst start of the season on Thursday, lasting just 4 2/3 innings and allowing seven runs on 10 hits. He struck out eight and had "tremendous" stuff, manager Terry Francona told reporters, but he was hit hard in the third, fourth and fifth innings and eventually had to be lifted for Hunter Jones.
But this wasn't just a one-start issue. Beckett had finished the seventh inning just once in his first four starts; on Saturday against the Yankees, he allowed eight earned runs in five innings pitched. His ERA now is at 7.22.
If we want to be simplistic about it, here's a two-part answer to Beckett's problem:
1. Beckett is walking 5.0 batters per nine innings, almost twice his career average before this season.
2. When the bases are empty, Beckett is holding opponents to a .254 batting average (and .309 on-base percentage). When runners are on base, opponents are hitting .357 and OBPing .456. Eleven of his 16 walks, in fact, have come when there already are runners on base.
If you want to be more simplistic about it, though, Beckett's issues on Thursday came down to just one pitch -- the third curveball he threw to Evan Longoria in the bottom of the third inning.
Beckett ran into some bad luck to start off the third inning; Jason Bartlett reached when his bouncer deflected off the glove of Mike Lowell, and B.J. Upton reached on a swinging bunt down the third-base line that Beckett couldn't corral. But that's baseball -- everyone hits a patch of bad luck once in a while. The best pitchers are the ones who can pitch around that bad luck.
With runners on first and second and one out, Beckett missed badly with his first two pitches to Carl Crawford and ended up walking him; he'd done just fine getting Crawford to swing at a cutter at the knees in the first inning, but he couldn't find the strike zone in the third.
That brought up Longoria with the bases loaded.
Longoria had hit a Beckett fastball hard in the first inning; he turned on a fastball on the inside corner and hit a towering fly ball that Jason Bay eventually tracked down on the warning track.
That, perhaps, was on Beckett's mind when he threw a first-pitch curveball to Longoria in the third inning. It missed, barely, low and away. Beckett then came back with another curveball over the plate that Longoria swung at and missed.
The next pitch, though, was the at-bat-deciding pitch. Beckett threw another curveball, his third straight curveball, and missed badly off the inside part of the plate.
In Beckett's career, opponents have hit .364 and slugged .605 out of a 2-1 count; they've hit .152 and slugged .214 out of a 1-2 count. That's a huge distinction. (A year ago, all American League hitters hit .336 and slugged .544 out of a 2-1 count; they hit .185 and slugged .265 out of a 1-2 count -- similar but less drastic numbers than the ones Beckett has seen in his career.)
Even worse, Beckett had thrown three straight breaking balls and was trailing in the count -- there was almost no doubt he could come back with a fastball.
Beckett did come back with a fastball, a 94-mile-an-hour four-seamer on the outside part of the plate. Longoria ripped it up the right-center-field gap to plate all three runners and give the Rays a 3-0 lead.
Beckett didn't need to strike Longoria out. He didn't even need to escape the inning unscathed; even though Matt Garza had brought filthy stuff to the mound, his team would still be in the game if he allowed one run.
But when he threw his curveball, he was throwing what he wanted to be a swing-and-a-miss pitch. By the time he went back to the fastball, he was throwing a get-me-over pitch. That was the pitch Longoria tattooed -- and the pitch that turned a little bad luck into a bad outing.
But this wasn't just a one-start issue. Beckett had finished the seventh inning just once in his first four starts; on Saturday against the Yankees, he allowed eight earned runs in five innings pitched. His ERA now is at 7.22.
If we want to be simplistic about it, here's a two-part answer to Beckett's problem:
1. Beckett is walking 5.0 batters per nine innings, almost twice his career average before this season.
2. When the bases are empty, Beckett is holding opponents to a .254 batting average (and .309 on-base percentage). When runners are on base, opponents are hitting .357 and OBPing .456. Eleven of his 16 walks, in fact, have come when there already are runners on base.
If you want to be more simplistic about it, though, Beckett's issues on Thursday came down to just one pitch -- the third curveball he threw to Evan Longoria in the bottom of the third inning.
Beckett ran into some bad luck to start off the third inning; Jason Bartlett reached when his bouncer deflected off the glove of Mike Lowell, and B.J. Upton reached on a swinging bunt down the third-base line that Beckett couldn't corral. But that's baseball -- everyone hits a patch of bad luck once in a while. The best pitchers are the ones who can pitch around that bad luck.
With runners on first and second and one out, Beckett missed badly with his first two pitches to Carl Crawford and ended up walking him; he'd done just fine getting Crawford to swing at a cutter at the knees in the first inning, but he couldn't find the strike zone in the third.
That brought up Longoria with the bases loaded.
Longoria had hit a Beckett fastball hard in the first inning; he turned on a fastball on the inside corner and hit a towering fly ball that Jason Bay eventually tracked down on the warning track.
That, perhaps, was on Beckett's mind when he threw a first-pitch curveball to Longoria in the third inning. It missed, barely, low and away. Beckett then came back with another curveball over the plate that Longoria swung at and missed.
The next pitch, though, was the at-bat-deciding pitch. Beckett threw another curveball, his third straight curveball, and missed badly off the inside part of the plate.
In Beckett's career, opponents have hit .364 and slugged .605 out of a 2-1 count; they've hit .152 and slugged .214 out of a 1-2 count. That's a huge distinction. (A year ago, all American League hitters hit .336 and slugged .544 out of a 2-1 count; they hit .185 and slugged .265 out of a 1-2 count -- similar but less drastic numbers than the ones Beckett has seen in his career.)
Even worse, Beckett had thrown three straight breaking balls and was trailing in the count -- there was almost no doubt he could come back with a fastball.
Beckett did come back with a fastball, a 94-mile-an-hour four-seamer on the outside part of the plate. Longoria ripped it up the right-center-field gap to plate all three runners and give the Rays a 3-0 lead.
Beckett didn't need to strike Longoria out. He didn't even need to escape the inning unscathed; even though Matt Garza had brought filthy stuff to the mound, his team would still be in the game if he allowed one run.
But when he threw his curveball, he was throwing what he wanted to be a swing-and-a-miss pitch. By the time he went back to the fastball, he was throwing a get-me-over pitch. That was the pitch Longoria tattooed -- and the pitch that turned a little bad luck into a bad outing.
Asked and answered: Charlie Williams, UNC wide receivers coach
Here's the full Q&A with Charlie Williams, who coached Patriots draftee Brandon Tate at North Carolina:
What were your first impressions of Brandon?
"What I saw was he was a dang good punt returner and kick returner. Once he started playing receiver, though, I was excited because we had three receivers who all did something different and something special.
(Hakeem Nicks was drafted in the first round by the New York Giants; Brooks Foster was drafted in the fifth round by the St. Louis Rams.)
"What he does is when he has the ball in his hands, he knows what to do with it. He knows how to catch the ball and run with it after the catch. He knows how to get a release and get downfield in a hurry. He can stick his foot in the ground and make that first guy miss, as well."
What is it that makes him such a dangerous kick returner?
"He has a feel for it. You have to have a feel for it. What we had to do was, after his junior year, we looked at all the tapes, and we needed him to stay with the return. He tried to deviate a lot of times. We got penalties because guys were going one way and he was going another. Once we got him to do that, he just set the world on fire."
Was he a guy who outran his blockers sometimes, too?
"He could do that, too. If there was a crease, he was going to hit that crease. That's what he did well: When he got in the open field, it was hard for people to make the play."
What does he have to do to contribute as a wide receiver in the NFL?
"All of them are going to have to learn how to adjust to the NFL game? What they'll see is a lot more press coverage in the league. It'll be hard for them to line up against press. Brandon was always an inside receiver for us; it would be a mismatch if they put a linebacker on him, and it would be a mismatch if it was a safety."
How does he adjust to the press coverage?
"He has good enough feet. He has good enough shake that he can get away from you. He has to use his hands, but he'll learn to do that well."
Does he compare to anyone you saw in the NFL when you were the wide receivers coach with the Buccaneers?
"He has the speed and quicks and can get off the line like Reidel Anthony got off the line. He has the shakes like Jacquez Green had to make the first guy miss -- and make the second guy miss."
Is playing next year a reasonable goal for him based on where he is in his rehab?
"Oh, yeah, no doubt. I know they'll rehab him and rehab him. If he's ready to play this year, where he'll help the is on special teams. I'm not saying he can't help them as a receiver, but if all they're asking him to do is punt returns and kick returns, he can help them."
Is he excited about the opportunity that's been created with the trade of Ellis Hobbs as a kick returner?
"Yeah. He's excited about the whole opportunity, No. 1. He's excited because he knows the Patriots are a playoff team and a Super Bowl-winning team. That's their goal, to get back to that point. He's just excited to have that opportunity."
Does he specifically want to contribute at receiver, or would he be happy just being a return guy?
"He wants to do it all. He can do it all. He knows he can help the team. They have great receivers on that team, and all he's going to do is add to it."
Speaking of those receivers, does he compare with Wes Welker at all?
"The thing Wes Welker does is that he gets open and he catches the ball. Brandon will get open and he'll catch the ball, and he's going to run after the catch. That's the part you need in the league: You've got to have some yards after the catch."
How did he approach his rehab?
"Let me just say this: It was hard on him. It was the first time he's really seriously been injured. It was hard on him. Now all that waiting game, that whole deal is over. They know they're going to get him up there and get after him in his rehab. The harder he works, the faster he recovers and gets on that field. What he wants to do is get on that field. When he sees his other buddies on the field with their teams, that's only going to make him more hungry."
What were his expectations for the draft?
"He realized that before the injury he was heading in the right direction and would have been among that top group of receivers drafted in the first round. After the injury, all he was hoping for was to get drafted."
What's he going to do during the rookie camps and training camps?
"It's all about doing the rehab. Minicamp is this weekend, but his whole deal at minicamp will be rehab. They'll be getting on a schedule and getting him on a program to rehab."
What were your first impressions of Brandon?
"What I saw was he was a dang good punt returner and kick returner. Once he started playing receiver, though, I was excited because we had three receivers who all did something different and something special.
(Hakeem Nicks was drafted in the first round by the New York Giants; Brooks Foster was drafted in the fifth round by the St. Louis Rams.)
"What he does is when he has the ball in his hands, he knows what to do with it. He knows how to catch the ball and run with it after the catch. He knows how to get a release and get downfield in a hurry. He can stick his foot in the ground and make that first guy miss, as well."
What is it that makes him such a dangerous kick returner?
"He has a feel for it. You have to have a feel for it. What we had to do was, after his junior year, we looked at all the tapes, and we needed him to stay with the return. He tried to deviate a lot of times. We got penalties because guys were going one way and he was going another. Once we got him to do that, he just set the world on fire."
Was he a guy who outran his blockers sometimes, too?
"He could do that, too. If there was a crease, he was going to hit that crease. That's what he did well: When he got in the open field, it was hard for people to make the play."
What does he have to do to contribute as a wide receiver in the NFL?
"All of them are going to have to learn how to adjust to the NFL game? What they'll see is a lot more press coverage in the league. It'll be hard for them to line up against press. Brandon was always an inside receiver for us; it would be a mismatch if they put a linebacker on him, and it would be a mismatch if it was a safety."
How does he adjust to the press coverage?
"He has good enough feet. He has good enough shake that he can get away from you. He has to use his hands, but he'll learn to do that well."
Does he compare to anyone you saw in the NFL when you were the wide receivers coach with the Buccaneers?
"He has the speed and quicks and can get off the line like Reidel Anthony got off the line. He has the shakes like Jacquez Green had to make the first guy miss -- and make the second guy miss."
Is playing next year a reasonable goal for him based on where he is in his rehab?
"Oh, yeah, no doubt. I know they'll rehab him and rehab him. If he's ready to play this year, where he'll help the is on special teams. I'm not saying he can't help them as a receiver, but if all they're asking him to do is punt returns and kick returns, he can help them."
Is he excited about the opportunity that's been created with the trade of Ellis Hobbs as a kick returner?
"Yeah. He's excited about the whole opportunity, No. 1. He's excited because he knows the Patriots are a playoff team and a Super Bowl-winning team. That's their goal, to get back to that point. He's just excited to have that opportunity."
Does he specifically want to contribute at receiver, or would he be happy just being a return guy?
"He wants to do it all. He can do it all. He knows he can help the team. They have great receivers on that team, and all he's going to do is add to it."
Speaking of those receivers, does he compare with Wes Welker at all?
"The thing Wes Welker does is that he gets open and he catches the ball. Brandon will get open and he'll catch the ball, and he's going to run after the catch. That's the part you need in the league: You've got to have some yards after the catch."
How did he approach his rehab?
"Let me just say this: It was hard on him. It was the first time he's really seriously been injured. It was hard on him. Now all that waiting game, that whole deal is over. They know they're going to get him up there and get after him in his rehab. The harder he works, the faster he recovers and gets on that field. What he wants to do is get on that field. When he sees his other buddies on the field with their teams, that's only going to make him more hungry."
What were his expectations for the draft?
"He realized that before the injury he was heading in the right direction and would have been among that top group of receivers drafted in the first round. After the injury, all he was hoping for was to get drafted."
What's he going to do during the rookie camps and training camps?
"It's all about doing the rehab. Minicamp is this weekend, but his whole deal at minicamp will be rehab. They'll be getting on a schedule and getting him on a program to rehab."
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