Even during the regular season, Terry Francona is loath to divulge his starting lineup for a game until he absolutely has to.
The Red Sox manager wasn't about to divulge his starting lineup for Opening Day in December.
New acquisition Mike Cameron is a Gold Glove-caliber center fielder whose reputation only is underscored by advanced fielding metrics. Jacoby Ellsbury, on the other hand, is a rising star who appears to have all the physical tools to play a Cameron-esque center field. Defensive metrics didn't hold him in high esteem last season, but it's not hard to imagine a leap forward as his reads and routes improve.
Francona, general manager Theo Epstein and bench coach DeMarlo Hale, who doubles as the Red Sox outfield instructor, will have a decision to make about who plays center field.
That decision, Francona said, hasn't yet been made.
"What we need to do -- and I've already talked to Cam about this -- is, in the next week or so, I need to sit down with Theo, Mike, Jacoby and probably DeMarlo and figure out what's in our best interest," Francona said. "I need to talk to everybody first. It's been kind of a whirlwind week for everybody. We'll sit down and try to put the right pieces in the right place. I have some ideas on it, but I want to talk to everybody first."
Cameron hasn't played a corner outfield spot since he played right field with the Mets in 2005, giving way to Carlos Beltran. Cameron has played all of 9 2/3 innings in left field in his major-league career and hasn't made an appeared out there since 2000.
Ellsbury, on the other hand, made 36 starts and played almost 350 innings in left field as part of a time-sharing arrangement with Coco Crisp two seasons ago.
But if the Red Sox see Ellsbury as their center fielder of the future -- something that's a likelihood but no lock, especially considering what the fielding metrics say and who his agent is -- they might be better off playing Ellsbury full-time in center field to accelerate his learning curve.
Cameron, for his part, expressed no reluctance about playing left field for the Red Sox. He did not, however, shy away from his confidence in his ability to play center.
"I think I've played Gold Glove-caliber center field my whole career," he said. "I just don't get a chance to be recognized for it. But the numbers speak for themselves. I still feel that I'm able to move around pretty good, and I play probably one of the better center fields this year than I've played in a long time."
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Cameron, Francona go way back
Terry Francona first met Mike Cameron almost 20 years ago in Sarasota, Fla., when the manager was starting his first post-playing job as the hitting coach of the Chicago White Sox's Gulf Coast League affiliate and the outfielder was an 18-year-old who had just been selected in the 18th round of the amateur draft.
(Among other 18th-rounders from that 1991 draft: Bobby Higginson, Kirk Rueter and Ron Mahay. Not a bad 18th round.)
"I saw his folks drop him off in Sarasota when he was about two weeks out of high school," Francona said with a smirk. "I believe, and I might be wrong, that they gave him a computer and made him promise to work on it every night."
Francona then was 32 years old. His oldest child, Nick, had just turned six years old. He was just learning how to be a parent -- and he was charged, in a lot of ways, with being a surrogate parent to the 17- and 18-year olds on his roster.
"He always used to tell us that if you can’t figure this out now, a little bit of it now, you’ll be one of the prime candidates to be working at 7-11," Cameron said. "I’ll always remember that."
Said Francona, "I’ve thrown to him in the cage almost more than is humanly possible."
Francona was the manager who, four years later, broke the news to Cameron that the White Sox had summoned him from Double-A Birmingham to the major leagues. Cameron was hitting .249 and had hit 11 home runs in 350 at-bats with the Barons to that point, and a call to the major leagues was the last thing on his mind.
"I thought I was in trouble, and he told me I was going to the big leagues," Cameron said. "I almost had a heart attack."
Francona had a chance to get reacquainted with Cameron on Wednesday when the Gold Glove outfielder signed a two-year contract to play with Francona's Red Sox. Cameron now is 36 years old. He's older than Francona was when the two first met. He's played parts of 15 season in the major leagues.
He even has three kids of his own. When news began to spread that he'd agreed to a contract with the Red Sox on Monday evening, Cameron was at a basketball game to watch Dazmon, his 12-year-old son.
It was enough to make a manager feel pretty old.
"I’ve seen him go from a raw, very athletic likeable 18-year-old to a guy who’s played and had a great career," Francona said. "We’re excited to have him here. What he does in the outfield and what he does at the plate, you can see. What he brings besides that is going to be very welcome."
(Among other 18th-rounders from that 1991 draft: Bobby Higginson, Kirk Rueter and Ron Mahay. Not a bad 18th round.)
"I saw his folks drop him off in Sarasota when he was about two weeks out of high school," Francona said with a smirk. "I believe, and I might be wrong, that they gave him a computer and made him promise to work on it every night."
Francona then was 32 years old. His oldest child, Nick, had just turned six years old. He was just learning how to be a parent -- and he was charged, in a lot of ways, with being a surrogate parent to the 17- and 18-year olds on his roster.
"He always used to tell us that if you can’t figure this out now, a little bit of it now, you’ll be one of the prime candidates to be working at 7-11," Cameron said. "I’ll always remember that."
Said Francona, "I’ve thrown to him in the cage almost more than is humanly possible."
Francona was the manager who, four years later, broke the news to Cameron that the White Sox had summoned him from Double-A Birmingham to the major leagues. Cameron was hitting .249 and had hit 11 home runs in 350 at-bats with the Barons to that point, and a call to the major leagues was the last thing on his mind.
"I thought I was in trouble, and he told me I was going to the big leagues," Cameron said. "I almost had a heart attack."
Francona had a chance to get reacquainted with Cameron on Wednesday when the Gold Glove outfielder signed a two-year contract to play with Francona's Red Sox. Cameron now is 36 years old. He's older than Francona was when the two first met. He's played parts of 15 season in the major leagues.
He even has three kids of his own. When news began to spread that he'd agreed to a contract with the Red Sox on Monday evening, Cameron was at a basketball game to watch Dazmon, his 12-year-old son.
It was enough to make a manager feel pretty old.
"I’ve seen him go from a raw, very athletic likeable 18-year-old to a guy who’s played and had a great career," Francona said. "We’re excited to have him here. What he does in the outfield and what he does at the plate, you can see. What he brings besides that is going to be very welcome."
Cameron all about defense on the road
Playing newly signed outfielder Mike Cameron in front of the Green Monster, pundits have been saying all day, makes little to no sense. There's less ground to cover. There are fewer outs to make. There's simply less defense to play.
Theo Epstein didn't sign Cameron, however, to patrol left field at Fenway Park.
Epstein signed Cameron to patrol left field everywhere else.
Fenway Park is a park built for bats. There's no question about that. In case there is a question, in fact, here's a look at where Fenway Park has ranked across the major leagues in terms of hitters' OPS in the last few seasons:
2009
1. Camden Yards, .810
2. Coors Field, .800
3. Fenway Park, .798
2008
1. Rangers Ballpark, .846
2. Comerica Park, .806
3. Camden Yards, .795
4. Coors Field, .790
5. Fenway Park, .781
2007
1. Citizens Bank Park, .824
2. Coors Field, .809
3. Dolphin Stadium, .802
4. Yankee Stadium, .798
5. Comerica Park, .795
6. Great American Ballpark, .790
7. Fenway Park, .785
2006
1. Kauffman Stadium, .819
2. Coors Field, .814
3. Citizens Bank Park, .813
4. Great American Ballpark. .802
5. Chase Field, .800
6. Comiskey Park, .797
7. Camden Yards, .797
8. Rogers Centre, .793
9. Fenway Park, .788
2005
1. Great American Ballpark, .832
2. Coors Field, .824
3. Rangers Ballpark, .808
4. Citizens Bank Park, .793
5. Fenway Park, .793
2004
1. Coors Field, .885
2. Comiskey Park, .822
3. Rangers Ballpark, .804
4. Fenway Park, .803
And so on.
(These numbers do have to be taken with something of a grain of salt. The team that plays its home games at a certain stadium will always have quite a bit to do with the above numbers, and the Red Sox have had an elite run-scoring lineup for most of the decade. But the home team only gets half the at-bats at each stadium -- and the Red Sox scored more runs at home than on the road in each of the above seasons, often by a wide margin.)
It shouldn't be a surprise that the Red Sox OPS'ed .862 at Fenway Park last season and .753 on the road.
What might be surprising, though, is this: Red Sox pitchers saw opponents accumulate an OPS of .736 at Fenway Park last season and .779 on the road. Red Sox pitchers had an ERA of 4.07 at home and 4.64 on the road. Red Sox pitchers saw their opponents' batting average on balls in play hold relatively steady at .307 at home but jump up to .318 on the road.
When Red Sox pitchers escaped Fenway Park, a hitters' paradise, they actually pitched a little bit worse.
Maybe it's the discomfort of hotel beds. Maybe it's a bad bounce or two on an unfamiliar infield. Maybe it's an issue with sight lines or backdrops or fans hollering obscenities as pitchers are going into their windups.
That opponents' BABIP number in particular provides a clue: Maybe the Red Sox just haven't been built to play defense away from Fenway Park. Only two teams in the major leagues -- Toronto and Washington -- had a higher opponents' BABIP on the road last season than the Red Sox.
Maybe it's luck. Maybe it's defense.
Enter Mike Cameron.
Left field at Fenway Park measures 315 feet down the line and 379 feet in left-center field, almost dead center field, where the Green Monster meets Bernie Carbo's favorite fence. Compare that to a couple of left fields the Red Sox often see:
* Yankee Stadium: 318 feet down the line and 399 to left-center;
* Camden Yards: 333 feet down the line and 410 to left-center;
* Rogers Centre: 328 feet down the line and 375 to straightaway left;
* Tropicana Field: 315 feet down the line and 410 to left-center;
* Angel Stadium: 330 feet down the line and 387 to left-center.
The Red Sox don't need an elite left fielder at Fenway Park.
They do, however, need an elite left fielder if they want to win on the road -- and a couple of extra wins on the road would have made a tremendous difference for the Red Sox both during the regular season and during the playoffs. Cameron, by all accounts, an elite outfielder who ought to be the perfect fit in left field.
Theo Epstein didn't sign Cameron, however, to patrol left field at Fenway Park.
Epstein signed Cameron to patrol left field everywhere else.
Fenway Park is a park built for bats. There's no question about that. In case there is a question, in fact, here's a look at where Fenway Park has ranked across the major leagues in terms of hitters' OPS in the last few seasons:
2009
1. Camden Yards, .810
2. Coors Field, .800
3. Fenway Park, .798
2008
1. Rangers Ballpark, .846
2. Comerica Park, .806
3. Camden Yards, .795
4. Coors Field, .790
5. Fenway Park, .781
2007
1. Citizens Bank Park, .824
2. Coors Field, .809
3. Dolphin Stadium, .802
4. Yankee Stadium, .798
5. Comerica Park, .795
6. Great American Ballpark, .790
7. Fenway Park, .785
2006
1. Kauffman Stadium, .819
2. Coors Field, .814
3. Citizens Bank Park, .813
4. Great American Ballpark. .802
5. Chase Field, .800
6. Comiskey Park, .797
7. Camden Yards, .797
8. Rogers Centre, .793
9. Fenway Park, .788
2005
1. Great American Ballpark, .832
2. Coors Field, .824
3. Rangers Ballpark, .808
4. Citizens Bank Park, .793
5. Fenway Park, .793
2004
1. Coors Field, .885
2. Comiskey Park, .822
3. Rangers Ballpark, .804
4. Fenway Park, .803
And so on.
(These numbers do have to be taken with something of a grain of salt. The team that plays its home games at a certain stadium will always have quite a bit to do with the above numbers, and the Red Sox have had an elite run-scoring lineup for most of the decade. But the home team only gets half the at-bats at each stadium -- and the Red Sox scored more runs at home than on the road in each of the above seasons, often by a wide margin.)
It shouldn't be a surprise that the Red Sox OPS'ed .862 at Fenway Park last season and .753 on the road.
What might be surprising, though, is this: Red Sox pitchers saw opponents accumulate an OPS of .736 at Fenway Park last season and .779 on the road. Red Sox pitchers had an ERA of 4.07 at home and 4.64 on the road. Red Sox pitchers saw their opponents' batting average on balls in play hold relatively steady at .307 at home but jump up to .318 on the road.
When Red Sox pitchers escaped Fenway Park, a hitters' paradise, they actually pitched a little bit worse.
Maybe it's the discomfort of hotel beds. Maybe it's a bad bounce or two on an unfamiliar infield. Maybe it's an issue with sight lines or backdrops or fans hollering obscenities as pitchers are going into their windups.
That opponents' BABIP number in particular provides a clue: Maybe the Red Sox just haven't been built to play defense away from Fenway Park. Only two teams in the major leagues -- Toronto and Washington -- had a higher opponents' BABIP on the road last season than the Red Sox.
Maybe it's luck. Maybe it's defense.
Enter Mike Cameron.
Left field at Fenway Park measures 315 feet down the line and 379 feet in left-center field, almost dead center field, where the Green Monster meets Bernie Carbo's favorite fence. Compare that to a couple of left fields the Red Sox often see:
* Yankee Stadium: 318 feet down the line and 399 to left-center;
* Camden Yards: 333 feet down the line and 410 to left-center;
* Rogers Centre: 328 feet down the line and 375 to straightaway left;
* Tropicana Field: 315 feet down the line and 410 to left-center;
* Angel Stadium: 330 feet down the line and 387 to left-center.
The Red Sox don't need an elite left fielder at Fenway Park.
They do, however, need an elite left fielder if they want to win on the road -- and a couple of extra wins on the road would have made a tremendous difference for the Red Sox both during the regular season and during the playoffs. Cameron, by all accounts, an elite outfielder who ought to be the perfect fit in left field.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Meet John Lackey
You knew this was coming: It's been a couple of months since we had reason to pull out the BrooksBaseball.net pitching charts, and the anticipated signing by the Red Sox of John Lackey is as good a reason as any to dig in.
Lackey has been widely compared to Josh Beckett thanks to their eerily similar career numbers and their eerily similar stubborn Texas demeanor. But they're not quite so similar as pitchers.
Here's what to look for from Lackey when he's good...
* His fastball tops out at 94 miles an hour with a little bit of sink on it, and he'll throw it on both sides of the plate.
* His curveball and his slider blend together a little bit, with his curveball tending to be a put-away pitch at the bottom of the strike zone:
* He's not going to give free passes away. Only three times last season did he walk more than three hitters in a single start, the same number of times he pitched at least five innings and didn't walk anyone.
* He's a fly-ball pitcher. In each of his best eight starts this season as measured by Win Probability Added, he allowed 10 or more fly balls. He incuded 10 or more ground balls in only three of those starts.
... and when he's not so good:
* He's not throwing his fastball often enough. In a terrific start in early September against Seattle, Lackey threw 68 fastballs -- and 19 sliders, 21 curveballs and six cutters. In a lousy start in late August against Detroit, Lackey threw 58 fastballs -- and 12 sliders, 29 curveballs and 10 cutters.
* He's leaving his curveball up in the strike zone:
* He's missing the strike zone by quite a bit. The above two charts are fairly similar, but the first chart shows a pitcher who's around the plate even when he's missing. The second chart shows a pitcher who's wild, especially up, when he's missing.
Lackey doesn't have a 97-mile-per-hour fastball like Beckett does, but he does have elite command and control. If he can maintain that command and control into his mid-30s, he ought to do just fine.
Lackey has been widely compared to Josh Beckett thanks to their eerily similar career numbers and their eerily similar stubborn Texas demeanor. But they're not quite so similar as pitchers.
Here's what to look for from Lackey when he's good...
* His fastball tops out at 94 miles an hour with a little bit of sink on it, and he'll throw it on both sides of the plate.
* His curveball and his slider blend together a little bit, with his curveball tending to be a put-away pitch at the bottom of the strike zone:
* He's not going to give free passes away. Only three times last season did he walk more than three hitters in a single start, the same number of times he pitched at least five innings and didn't walk anyone.
* He's a fly-ball pitcher. In each of his best eight starts this season as measured by Win Probability Added, he allowed 10 or more fly balls. He incuded 10 or more ground balls in only three of those starts.
... and when he's not so good:
* He's not throwing his fastball often enough. In a terrific start in early September against Seattle, Lackey threw 68 fastballs -- and 19 sliders, 21 curveballs and six cutters. In a lousy start in late August against Detroit, Lackey threw 58 fastballs -- and 12 sliders, 29 curveballs and 10 cutters.
* He's leaving his curveball up in the strike zone:
* He's missing the strike zone by quite a bit. The above two charts are fairly similar, but the first chart shows a pitcher who's around the plate even when he's missing. The second chart shows a pitcher who's wild, especially up, when he's missing.
Lackey doesn't have a 97-mile-per-hour fastball like Beckett does, but he does have elite command and control. If he can maintain that command and control into his mid-30s, he ought to do just fine.
Casey Kelly and financial flexibility
(The second in an ongoing series.)
Let's assume John Lackey busts. Let's assume the triceps tendinitis and the elbow inflammation both recur. Let's assume Lackey turns into the next Mike Hampton, a pitcher whose salaries generally would have been more useful being flushed down the toilet all at once rather than being mailed out in two-week increments.
Had the Red Sox traded half their farm system -- let's assume it would have taken Clay Buchholz and Casey Kelly to go get Roy Halladay, not to mention a similar contract to the one signed by Lackey -- a bust like Hampton would have been a franchise-crippling disaster.
* In 2010, Buchholz and Lackey will earn a combined $18 million. According to Fangraphs -- these numbers should be taken with a huge grain of salt, but they're at least a starting point -- Lackey and Buchholz were worth $17.6 and $5.5 million, respectively, last season, and Buchholz wasn't even called up until after the All-Star break.
* In 2013, Kelly and Lackey will earn a combined $18 million. If Kelly can pitch 130 innings with an ERA of 4.00, he'll be worth significantly more than his major-league-minimum salary. Even if Lackey busts, the production of Kelly at little cost would go a long way toward making up the difference.
By signing Lackey as a free agent rather than trading prospects for Halladay, the Red Sox have covered themselves. Buchholz still is in the organization. Kelly still is in the organization. Junichi Tazawa and Michael Bowden still are in the organization. Felix Doubront, a 22-year-old who had a 3.35 ERA at Double-A Portland last season, still is in the organization. Stolmy Pimentel, a 19-year-old who had a 3.82 ERA at Single-A Greenville last season, still is in the organization.
Had the Red Sox emptied their farm system for Halladay, an ill-timed injury would have forced them back out on the market to overpay for another pitcher to take his place. By hanging onto their prospects, though, the Red Sox either can install a young pitcher in place of Lackey or swing the type of deal the Phillies made for Cliff Lee last July.
Let's even take it a step farther. Let's assume either Ryan Kalish or Josh Reddick is ready to play left field for the Red Sox by the time the 2011 season starts. Mike Cameron, of course, has agreed to a two-year contract that presumably will pay him $7.5 or $8 million in 2011.
All that means, though, is that the Red Sox will be paying Cameron, Kalish and Reddick a combined $8.5 or $9 million in 2011. How they sort out playing time -- the guess here is that a 38-year-old Cameron would be a super-sub fourth outfielder with the ability to spell J.D. Drew in right field, Jacoby Ellsbury in center field and either Kalish or Reddick in left field -- doesn't really matter. The major-league-minimum contracts of both Kalish and Reddick would allow the Red Sox to overpay a little bit to have Cameron be their backup outfielder.
Theo Epstein doesn't just build his organization on a steady flow of prospects because it's fun to see young players develop. He does so because it gives him a low-cost alternative should a hefty investment -- such as the risky five-year contract to which he's about to sign Lackey -- result in nothing but a bust.
If the worst-case scenario for Lackey becomes a reality, the Red Sox might be out $80 million. They won't, though, have to spend another $80 million to replace him.
Let's assume John Lackey busts. Let's assume the triceps tendinitis and the elbow inflammation both recur. Let's assume Lackey turns into the next Mike Hampton, a pitcher whose salaries generally would have been more useful being flushed down the toilet all at once rather than being mailed out in two-week increments.
Had the Red Sox traded half their farm system -- let's assume it would have taken Clay Buchholz and Casey Kelly to go get Roy Halladay, not to mention a similar contract to the one signed by Lackey -- a bust like Hampton would have been a franchise-crippling disaster.
* In 2010, Buchholz and Lackey will earn a combined $18 million. According to Fangraphs -- these numbers should be taken with a huge grain of salt, but they're at least a starting point -- Lackey and Buchholz were worth $17.6 and $5.5 million, respectively, last season, and Buchholz wasn't even called up until after the All-Star break.
* In 2013, Kelly and Lackey will earn a combined $18 million. If Kelly can pitch 130 innings with an ERA of 4.00, he'll be worth significantly more than his major-league-minimum salary. Even if Lackey busts, the production of Kelly at little cost would go a long way toward making up the difference.
By signing Lackey as a free agent rather than trading prospects for Halladay, the Red Sox have covered themselves. Buchholz still is in the organization. Kelly still is in the organization. Junichi Tazawa and Michael Bowden still are in the organization. Felix Doubront, a 22-year-old who had a 3.35 ERA at Double-A Portland last season, still is in the organization. Stolmy Pimentel, a 19-year-old who had a 3.82 ERA at Single-A Greenville last season, still is in the organization.
Had the Red Sox emptied their farm system for Halladay, an ill-timed injury would have forced them back out on the market to overpay for another pitcher to take his place. By hanging onto their prospects, though, the Red Sox either can install a young pitcher in place of Lackey or swing the type of deal the Phillies made for Cliff Lee last July.
Let's even take it a step farther. Let's assume either Ryan Kalish or Josh Reddick is ready to play left field for the Red Sox by the time the 2011 season starts. Mike Cameron, of course, has agreed to a two-year contract that presumably will pay him $7.5 or $8 million in 2011.
All that means, though, is that the Red Sox will be paying Cameron, Kalish and Reddick a combined $8.5 or $9 million in 2011. How they sort out playing time -- the guess here is that a 38-year-old Cameron would be a super-sub fourth outfielder with the ability to spell J.D. Drew in right field, Jacoby Ellsbury in center field and either Kalish or Reddick in left field -- doesn't really matter. The major-league-minimum contracts of both Kalish and Reddick would allow the Red Sox to overpay a little bit to have Cameron be their backup outfielder.
Theo Epstein doesn't just build his organization on a steady flow of prospects because it's fun to see young players develop. He does so because it gives him a low-cost alternative should a hefty investment -- such as the risky five-year contract to which he's about to sign Lackey -- result in nothing but a bust.
If the worst-case scenario for Lackey becomes a reality, the Red Sox might be out $80 million. They won't, though, have to spend another $80 million to replace him.
Monday, December 14, 2009
Red Sox to field an extraordinary lineup
Production-wise, Mike Cameron isn't a perfect fit for the Red Sox. He hasn't posted an on-base percentage better than .350 since 2006, and he hasn't hit more than 25 home runs since 2004.
Plate discipline-wise, he couldn't be better.
Check out this list of the most disciplined hitters -- as defined by refusing to swing at pitches outside the strike zone -- in the major leagues this past season:
1. Luis Castillo, 2B: 12.2 percent
2. Marco Scutaro, SS: 12.3 percent
3. Nick Johnson, 1B: 14.2 percent
4. Chone Figgins, 3B: 14.9 percent
5. J.D. Drew, OF: 15.3 percent
6. Chipper Jones, 3B: 15.4 percent
7. Bobby Abreu, OF: 15.9 percent
8. Mike Cameron, OF: 17.4 percent
9. Nick Swisher, OF: 17.4 percent
10. Jack Cust, DH: 17.5 percent
11. Kosuke Fukudome, OF: 17.8 percent
12. Grady Sizemore, OF: 17.9 percent
13. Denard Span, OF: 18.3 percent
14. Dan Uggla, 2B: 18.7 percent
15. Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B: 18.8 percent
Victor Martinez ranks No. 34 out of the 153 players who had enough plate appearances to qualify. David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia come in at No. 55 and No. 60, respectively. Even Jacoby Ellsbury, whose plate discipline was a much-discussed issue last season, ranks No. 77 -- and he's only barely on the bottom half of the list.
The Red Sox might not hit as many home runs as they did a season ago, but they're going to be nightmare for opposing pitchers.
Even better: Johnson is still out there, and the Red Sox still have a void at a corner infield spot. Uggla could be had for the right price, too, and it's not ridiculous to have a second baseman who can hit but not field try his luck at first base. Heck, Casey Kotchman -- 23 percent last season -- remains an option as well.
Maybe Theo Epstein isn't going to get as hot and bothered for Adrian Beltre -- who swung at 36.8 percent of pitches out of the strike zone last season -- as some of us have guessed.
Beltre suddenly doesn't look like he's part of the plan.
Plate discipline-wise, he couldn't be better.
Check out this list of the most disciplined hitters -- as defined by refusing to swing at pitches outside the strike zone -- in the major leagues this past season:
1. Luis Castillo, 2B: 12.2 percent
2. Marco Scutaro, SS: 12.3 percent
3. Nick Johnson, 1B: 14.2 percent
4. Chone Figgins, 3B: 14.9 percent
5. J.D. Drew, OF: 15.3 percent
6. Chipper Jones, 3B: 15.4 percent
7. Bobby Abreu, OF: 15.9 percent
8. Mike Cameron, OF: 17.4 percent
9. Nick Swisher, OF: 17.4 percent
10. Jack Cust, DH: 17.5 percent
11. Kosuke Fukudome, OF: 17.8 percent
12. Grady Sizemore, OF: 17.9 percent
13. Denard Span, OF: 18.3 percent
14. Dan Uggla, 2B: 18.7 percent
15. Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B: 18.8 percent
Victor Martinez ranks No. 34 out of the 153 players who had enough plate appearances to qualify. David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia come in at No. 55 and No. 60, respectively. Even Jacoby Ellsbury, whose plate discipline was a much-discussed issue last season, ranks No. 77 -- and he's only barely on the bottom half of the list.
The Red Sox might not hit as many home runs as they did a season ago, but they're going to be nightmare for opposing pitchers.
Even better: Johnson is still out there, and the Red Sox still have a void at a corner infield spot. Uggla could be had for the right price, too, and it's not ridiculous to have a second baseman who can hit but not field try his luck at first base. Heck, Casey Kotchman -- 23 percent last season -- remains an option as well.
Maybe Theo Epstein isn't going to get as hot and bothered for Adrian Beltre -- who swung at 36.8 percent of pitches out of the strike zone last season -- as some of us have guessed.
Beltre suddenly doesn't look like he's part of the plan.
Mike Cameron as a defensive upgrade
It appears the Red Sox have wasted no time in taking Joe Urbon at his word, spending Jason Bay's money on Angels ace John Lackey and engaging in serious talks with outfielder extraordinaire Mike Cameron, a natural fit for their pitching-and-defense approach to the offseason.
(Click here for a look at how Cameron might fit what the Red Sox want at the plate.)
Cameron has made a career out of being a defensive whiz in center field. The Red Sox, unless they have less faith in Jacoby Ellsbury's development than we've been led to believe, only need Cameron to play left field -- and to play it better than Bay did.
That shouldn't be an issue. Check out the defensive metrics -- and keep in mind, too, that Cameron was playing in center while Bay was playing in left:
2009
Bay: minus-11.2 UZR/minus-4 Fielding Bible
Cameron: plus-10.3 UZR/plus-3 Fielding Bible
2008
Bay: minus-18.2 UZR/minus-7 Fielding Bible
Cameron: plus-15.6 UZR/plus-7 Fielding Bible
2007
Bay: minus-11.4 UZR/minus-11 Fielding Bible
Cameron: minus-10.4 UZR/plus-1 Fielding Bible
2006
Bay: plus-3.0 UZR/plus-7 Fielding Bible
Cameron: minus-0.6 UZR/plus-5 Fielding Bible
One red flag pops up when looking at those numbers: Ultimate Zone Rating doesn't like the way Cameron played center field in 2006 and 2007.
Some context: Cameron played 2006 and 2007 in San Diego. He played 2008 and 2009 in Milwaukee. San Diego's Petco Park, as Red Sox fans lusting after Adrian Gonzalez know well, has a cavernous outfield -- it's 367 feet to left-center, 396 feet to center field and 411 to the deepest part of the park in right-center. Miller Park, on the other hand, features a center-field wall that goes back 400 feet but doesn't have a power alley in right-center or left-center that's any deeper than 375 feet.
At Fenway Park, especially since the Red Sox will have this type of information, Cameron will play left field alongside Jacoby Ellsbury in center. The deepest part of left-center field at Fenway Park, the spot where the Green Monster ends, is at 388 feet. The deepest part of center field, on the other hand, is 420 feet away from home plate.
The guess here is that Cameron only sees time in center field for the Red Sox next season when Jacoby Ellsbury is taking one of his 15 or 20 days off.
Left-field fences across baseball, as a rule, aren't as deep as center-field fences. Bay hasn't patrolled left field at an above-average level since his 2006 season. Cameron owns three Gold Gloves -- for what that's worth -- and a resume full of above-average plus-minus numbers in center field. He ought to handle left field for the Red Sox just fine.
(Click here for a look at how Cameron might fit what the Red Sox want at the plate.)
Cameron has made a career out of being a defensive whiz in center field. The Red Sox, unless they have less faith in Jacoby Ellsbury's development than we've been led to believe, only need Cameron to play left field -- and to play it better than Bay did.
That shouldn't be an issue. Check out the defensive metrics -- and keep in mind, too, that Cameron was playing in center while Bay was playing in left:
2009
Bay: minus-11.2 UZR/minus-4 Fielding Bible
Cameron: plus-10.3 UZR/plus-3 Fielding Bible
2008
Bay: minus-18.2 UZR/minus-7 Fielding Bible
Cameron: plus-15.6 UZR/plus-7 Fielding Bible
2007
Bay: minus-11.4 UZR/minus-11 Fielding Bible
Cameron: minus-10.4 UZR/plus-1 Fielding Bible
2006
Bay: plus-3.0 UZR/plus-7 Fielding Bible
Cameron: minus-0.6 UZR/plus-5 Fielding Bible
One red flag pops up when looking at those numbers: Ultimate Zone Rating doesn't like the way Cameron played center field in 2006 and 2007.
Some context: Cameron played 2006 and 2007 in San Diego. He played 2008 and 2009 in Milwaukee. San Diego's Petco Park, as Red Sox fans lusting after Adrian Gonzalez know well, has a cavernous outfield -- it's 367 feet to left-center, 396 feet to center field and 411 to the deepest part of the park in right-center. Miller Park, on the other hand, features a center-field wall that goes back 400 feet but doesn't have a power alley in right-center or left-center that's any deeper than 375 feet.
At Fenway Park, especially since the Red Sox will have this type of information, Cameron will play left field alongside Jacoby Ellsbury in center. The deepest part of left-center field at Fenway Park, the spot where the Green Monster ends, is at 388 feet. The deepest part of center field, on the other hand, is 420 feet away from home plate.
The guess here is that Cameron only sees time in center field for the Red Sox next season when Jacoby Ellsbury is taking one of his 15 or 20 days off.
Left-field fences across baseball, as a rule, aren't as deep as center-field fences. Bay hasn't patrolled left field at an above-average level since his 2006 season. Cameron owns three Gold Gloves -- for what that's worth -- and a resume full of above-average plus-minus numbers in center field. He ought to handle left field for the Red Sox just fine.
Beckett, Lackey virtually identical
To keep building on the previously discussed Beckett-Buchholz premise: It's important to remember that the sticking point for the Red Sox in making blockbuster trades for Adrian Gonzalez or Roy Halladay seemed to be their unwillingness to part with Casey Kelly or Ryan Westmoreland -- and not their unwillingness to part with Clay Buchholz.
That's why it's not a given that a Lackey deal -- multiple media reports have him in Boston taking a physical today -- means the Red Sox will turn around and trade Buchholz to San Diego for Gonzalez or to Detroit for Miguel Cabrera. Both of those teams still almost certainly will insist on Kelly and/or Westmoreland, and the Red Sox don't appear willing to trade either.
The other theory in play is that the Red Sox have reached an impasse in their negotations on a contract extension with Josh Beckett. The Beckett-Jon Lester tandem certainly served the Red Sox well this season, but Theo Epstein seems to believe that Beckett is prepared to walk away after the 2010 season.
Should Beckett walk and Clay Buchholz for some reason not pan out, the once-deep Red Sox rotation would be left with Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka and not much else, and Epstein would have no choice but to throw crazy money at Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee -- and that's only if neither is traded and/or signed to a contract extension at some point before the end of next season.
Lackey is Beckett insurance.
If the Red Sox landed Lackey for A.J. Burnett money -- $16 million a year or so -- they must believe Beckett is looking instead for CC Sabathia money -- $20 million or more a year. It's not hard to see why Beckett would classify himself as a pitcher more similar to Sabathia than to Burnett, but it's also not hard to see why the Red Sox would balk at paying $20 million a year for his services as he turns 32, 33 and 34 years old.
Rather than risk Beckett walking away, the Red Sox signed a pitcher who might be as similar to him as it gets without sharing a birthday and a mother:
2007
Beckett: 3.27 ERA, 1.141 WHIP, 4.85 K/BB ratio
Lackey: 3.01 ERA, 1.210 WHIP, 3.44 K/BB ratio
2008
Beckett: 4.03 ERA, 1.187 WHIP, 5.06 K/BB ratio
Lackey: 3.75 ERA, 1.231 WHIP, 3.25 K/BB ratio
2009
Beckett: 3.86 ERA, 1.192 WHIP, 3.62 K/BB ratio
Lackey: 3.83 ERA, 1.270 WHIP, 2.96 K/BB ratio
Lackey consistently has a better ERA, though not by much. Beckett consistently has better peripherals, but not by much. Lackey is even from Texas.
Lackey isn't an upgrade on Beckett. But Lackey would give the Red Sox an absolutely loaded starting rotation in 2010 -- and he'd ensure Lester would go each of his next four or five seasons with at least one co-ace at the top of the Red Sox rotation.
That's why it's not a given that a Lackey deal -- multiple media reports have him in Boston taking a physical today -- means the Red Sox will turn around and trade Buchholz to San Diego for Gonzalez or to Detroit for Miguel Cabrera. Both of those teams still almost certainly will insist on Kelly and/or Westmoreland, and the Red Sox don't appear willing to trade either.
The other theory in play is that the Red Sox have reached an impasse in their negotations on a contract extension with Josh Beckett. The Beckett-Jon Lester tandem certainly served the Red Sox well this season, but Theo Epstein seems to believe that Beckett is prepared to walk away after the 2010 season.
Should Beckett walk and Clay Buchholz for some reason not pan out, the once-deep Red Sox rotation would be left with Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka and not much else, and Epstein would have no choice but to throw crazy money at Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee -- and that's only if neither is traded and/or signed to a contract extension at some point before the end of next season.
Lackey is Beckett insurance.
If the Red Sox landed Lackey for A.J. Burnett money -- $16 million a year or so -- they must believe Beckett is looking instead for CC Sabathia money -- $20 million or more a year. It's not hard to see why Beckett would classify himself as a pitcher more similar to Sabathia than to Burnett, but it's also not hard to see why the Red Sox would balk at paying $20 million a year for his services as he turns 32, 33 and 34 years old.
Rather than risk Beckett walking away, the Red Sox signed a pitcher who might be as similar to him as it gets without sharing a birthday and a mother:
2007
Beckett: 3.27 ERA, 1.141 WHIP, 4.85 K/BB ratio
Lackey: 3.01 ERA, 1.210 WHIP, 3.44 K/BB ratio
2008
Beckett: 4.03 ERA, 1.187 WHIP, 5.06 K/BB ratio
Lackey: 3.75 ERA, 1.231 WHIP, 3.25 K/BB ratio
2009
Beckett: 3.86 ERA, 1.192 WHIP, 3.62 K/BB ratio
Lackey: 3.83 ERA, 1.270 WHIP, 2.96 K/BB ratio
Lackey consistently has a better ERA, though not by much. Beckett consistently has better peripherals, but not by much. Lackey is even from Texas.
Lackey isn't an upgrade on Beckett. But Lackey would give the Red Sox an absolutely loaded starting rotation in 2010 -- and he'd ensure Lester would go each of his next four or five seasons with at least one co-ace at the top of the Red Sox rotation.
Reported Lackey deal has Beckett implications
Both Fanhouse and FoxSports.com are reporting that Angels ace John Lackey is undergoing a physical with the Red Sox, and FoxSports.com has gone far enough to suggest that the Red Sox likely are offering an A.J. Burnett-type contract -- though Lackey might not get five years from the Red Sox the way Burnett did from the Yankees.
Should Lackey sign with the Red Sox, the deal would have implications for several players who wore the Red Sox uniform last season:
1. Jason Bay
Done. Gone. Agent Joe Urbon suggested this weekend that Bay had moved on and was fielding better offers, and signing Lackey would seem to indicate that Theo Epstein was taking Urbon at his word. It seems unlikely that the Red Sox would drop $15 million or more on Bay at the same time -- especially since the signing of Lackey takes the Red Sox even farther along the road of being a pitching-and-defense team. Bay doesn't seem to fit on a pitching-and-defense team. Mike Cameron, on the other hand, does.
2. Mike Lowell
The deal with Texas appears to have hit a snag, but the same pitching-and-defense philosophy that eliminates Bay likewise eliminates Lowell from the Red Sox's plans. A pitching-and-defense team can't have a player at third base whose range is such a question mark entering the season. If the deal with Texas falls through, the Red Sox still will have to find a way to unload Lowell and make room for Adrian Beltre.
3. Josh Beckett
4. Clay Buchholz
The signing of Lackey likewise suggests that either Beckett or Buchholz fits into the post-2010 plans of the Red Sox, but not both. A Beckett-Lester-Lackey-Buchholz-Matsuzaka rotation next season could be dominant, but Beckett is a free agent after the 2010 season and is going to be looking for Lackey-type money -- or more. Buchholz, at the same time, is a prized trade chip and could be flipped in a deal for Miguel Cabrera or Adrian Gonzalez should the Padres or Tigers fall out of contention in July or choose to hold a fire sale next winter.
The knee-jerk reaction is to believe that Buchholz now can be traded this offseason for a bat to replace Bay in the middle of the Red Sox lineup. But it's not quite that simple -- especially given the way Epstein talks about balancing the long-term and short-term of his team.
Let's assume the Red Sox trade Buchholz for a hitter and sign Beckett to a lucrative contract extension. Here's what the Red Sox rotation would look like in 2012:
1. Beckett, age 32, $15 million
2. Lester, age 29, $7.6 million
3. Lackey, age 34, $15 million
4. Daisuke Matsuzaka, $10 million
5. Casey Kelly, age 23, $0.5 million
That's $48 million for a starting rotation -- not to mention the $21 million the Red Sox would owe Cabrera or the money they'd have to pay Gonzalez to extend his contract beyond 2011.
Let's assume, then, the Red Sox let Beckett walk and install Buchholz into the starting rotation full-time. Here's what the Red Sox rotation would look like in 2012:
1. Lester, age 29, $7.6 million
2. Lackey, age 34, $15 million
3. Buchholz, age 28, $3-4 million (arbitration-eligible)
4. Matsuzaka, age 31, $10 million
5. Kelly, age 23, $0.5 million
That's $37 million or so for a starting rotation that isn't really any worse than the starting rotation above -- assuming, of course, Buchholz continues to pitch the way most expect him to pitch. All of a sudden, the Red Sox have an extra $10 million to use in the free-agent market after the 2011 season -- when, now that you mention it, Gonzalez will be free to sign with any team he wants.
(One other advantage to adding Lackey now rather than waiting for Beckett to leave and signing his replacement: The signing of Marco Scutaro meant the Red Sox already had forfeited their first-round pick and thus only forfeited a second-round pick for Lackey. If Beckett walks in 2010, the Red Sox once again can load up on draft picks a la 2005.)
Signing Lackey doesn't necessarily mean the Red Sox will trade Buchholz. Signing Lackey might just allow the Red Sox to let Beckett walk after this season -- or even to shop him on a pitching-thin trade market this winter.
Should Lackey sign with the Red Sox, the deal would have implications for several players who wore the Red Sox uniform last season:
1. Jason Bay
Done. Gone. Agent Joe Urbon suggested this weekend that Bay had moved on and was fielding better offers, and signing Lackey would seem to indicate that Theo Epstein was taking Urbon at his word. It seems unlikely that the Red Sox would drop $15 million or more on Bay at the same time -- especially since the signing of Lackey takes the Red Sox even farther along the road of being a pitching-and-defense team. Bay doesn't seem to fit on a pitching-and-defense team. Mike Cameron, on the other hand, does.
2. Mike Lowell
The deal with Texas appears to have hit a snag, but the same pitching-and-defense philosophy that eliminates Bay likewise eliminates Lowell from the Red Sox's plans. A pitching-and-defense team can't have a player at third base whose range is such a question mark entering the season. If the deal with Texas falls through, the Red Sox still will have to find a way to unload Lowell and make room for Adrian Beltre.
3. Josh Beckett
4. Clay Buchholz
The signing of Lackey likewise suggests that either Beckett or Buchholz fits into the post-2010 plans of the Red Sox, but not both. A Beckett-Lester-Lackey-Buchholz-Matsuzaka rotation next season could be dominant, but Beckett is a free agent after the 2010 season and is going to be looking for Lackey-type money -- or more. Buchholz, at the same time, is a prized trade chip and could be flipped in a deal for Miguel Cabrera or Adrian Gonzalez should the Padres or Tigers fall out of contention in July or choose to hold a fire sale next winter.
The knee-jerk reaction is to believe that Buchholz now can be traded this offseason for a bat to replace Bay in the middle of the Red Sox lineup. But it's not quite that simple -- especially given the way Epstein talks about balancing the long-term and short-term of his team.
Let's assume the Red Sox trade Buchholz for a hitter and sign Beckett to a lucrative contract extension. Here's what the Red Sox rotation would look like in 2012:
1. Beckett, age 32, $15 million
2. Lester, age 29, $7.6 million
3. Lackey, age 34, $15 million
4. Daisuke Matsuzaka, $10 million
5. Casey Kelly, age 23, $0.5 million
That's $48 million for a starting rotation -- not to mention the $21 million the Red Sox would owe Cabrera or the money they'd have to pay Gonzalez to extend his contract beyond 2011.
Let's assume, then, the Red Sox let Beckett walk and install Buchholz into the starting rotation full-time. Here's what the Red Sox rotation would look like in 2012:
1. Lester, age 29, $7.6 million
2. Lackey, age 34, $15 million
3. Buchholz, age 28, $3-4 million (arbitration-eligible)
4. Matsuzaka, age 31, $10 million
5. Kelly, age 23, $0.5 million
That's $37 million or so for a starting rotation that isn't really any worse than the starting rotation above -- assuming, of course, Buchholz continues to pitch the way most expect him to pitch. All of a sudden, the Red Sox have an extra $10 million to use in the free-agent market after the 2011 season -- when, now that you mention it, Gonzalez will be free to sign with any team he wants.
(One other advantage to adding Lackey now rather than waiting for Beckett to leave and signing his replacement: The signing of Marco Scutaro meant the Red Sox already had forfeited their first-round pick and thus only forfeited a second-round pick for Lackey. If Beckett walks in 2010, the Red Sox once again can load up on draft picks a la 2005.)
Signing Lackey doesn't necessarily mean the Red Sox will trade Buchholz. Signing Lackey might just allow the Red Sox to let Beckett walk after this season -- or even to shop him on a pitching-thin trade market this winter.
Light-Vollmer tandem looks like best bet
With the return of rookie offensive tackle Sebastian Vollmer, the Patriots opted to go with a strict rotation at left tackle and right tackle against the Panthers on Sunday. Veterans Matt Light and Nick Kaczur started at left tackle and right tackle, respectively, and played each of the Patriots' first two series.
Starting with the Patriots' third series, however, Vollmer played both left tackle in place of Light and right tackle in place of Kaczur. The rotation gave each player a chance to take a breather -- but it also seemed to give the Patriots a chance to evaluate who fit best at left tackle and right tackle.
"It looked like all of them had a chance to play," Patriots coach Bill Belichick. "I’m not sure exactly how the number of plays worked out, but they all played a significant part. I think that was probably good for them to get a little break. It’s not often those guys do and are able to come back in and be fresh and go on those long drives. But we tried to work Sebastian back in this week, and he did with a decent number of plays."
An examination of the yardage statistics reveals something interesting: The Patriots were far more productive with Light at left tackle and Vollmer at right tackle than any other combination. It's a small sample size, but it's interesting nonetheless to see how productive the Patriots were with each of their three offensive tackles on the field:
* Light: 40 plays, 333 yards (8.325 yards per play)
* Vollmer: 34 plays, 283 yards (8.324 yards per play)
* Kaczur: 32 plays, 184 yards (5.75 yards per play)
Here's the left tackle-right tackle breakdown from the Patriots' longest drives of the day:
* 96 yards: Light/Vollmer
* 63 yards: Light/Vollmer
* 57 yards: Light/Vollmer
* 54 yards: Light/Kaczur
* 47 yards: Vollmer/Kaczur
The versatility of Vollmer made the rotation possible. Belichick has raved about the versatility of his rookie ever since he drafted him, and the rotation would have been virtually impossible without a tackle who can play both sides.
“You practice it and try to be ready when the situation comes," Vollmer said. "When Coach tells you to get in, you better be ready, so I take every chance, every opportunity I get in practice and in the game to get better.”
Nick Kaczur did play left tackle in college. Mark LeVoir can play either left tackle or right tackle -- albeit in a backup role. Matt Light began his NFL career at right tackle and was a disaster. That, though, is more the norm around the NFL. Vollmer is pretty unique in his ability to play at both ends of the line as well as he does.
"It's a little bit unusual for tackles to be able to play both sides at a high level," Patriots coach Bill Belichick said. "Most tackles, usually, when you look at a normal draft board, you look at tackles and say, 'This tackle is more of a left tackle, and this tackle is more of a right tackle.' You have a few guys, maybe a quarter of them, as a guesstimate, where, 'This guy looks like he could be a swing tackle. ... When you look at Vollmer, he legimately can play both tackles."
Will Vollmer play both tackles the rest of the way? Belichick declined to specify on Monday whether he'd like to keep up the rotation in the future or if he'd like to settle on two guys to play the entire game. Kaczur went down with a shoulder injury in the third quarter, so the point could be moot.
But the Patriots did seem to be most produtive on Sunday with Light at left tackle and Vollmer on the right -- and it wouldn't be surprising to see them go with that tandem the rest of the way.
"I'd like to win," Belichick said. "I'd like to win. Whatever gives us the best chance to win, whatever we feel is best to win, then that’s what we’ll do."
Starting with the Patriots' third series, however, Vollmer played both left tackle in place of Light and right tackle in place of Kaczur. The rotation gave each player a chance to take a breather -- but it also seemed to give the Patriots a chance to evaluate who fit best at left tackle and right tackle.
"It looked like all of them had a chance to play," Patriots coach Bill Belichick. "I’m not sure exactly how the number of plays worked out, but they all played a significant part. I think that was probably good for them to get a little break. It’s not often those guys do and are able to come back in and be fresh and go on those long drives. But we tried to work Sebastian back in this week, and he did with a decent number of plays."
An examination of the yardage statistics reveals something interesting: The Patriots were far more productive with Light at left tackle and Vollmer at right tackle than any other combination. It's a small sample size, but it's interesting nonetheless to see how productive the Patriots were with each of their three offensive tackles on the field:
* Light: 40 plays, 333 yards (8.325 yards per play)
* Vollmer: 34 plays, 283 yards (8.324 yards per play)
* Kaczur: 32 plays, 184 yards (5.75 yards per play)
Here's the left tackle-right tackle breakdown from the Patriots' longest drives of the day:
* 96 yards: Light/Vollmer
* 63 yards: Light/Vollmer
* 57 yards: Light/Vollmer
* 54 yards: Light/Kaczur
* 47 yards: Vollmer/Kaczur
The versatility of Vollmer made the rotation possible. Belichick has raved about the versatility of his rookie ever since he drafted him, and the rotation would have been virtually impossible without a tackle who can play both sides.
“You practice it and try to be ready when the situation comes," Vollmer said. "When Coach tells you to get in, you better be ready, so I take every chance, every opportunity I get in practice and in the game to get better.”
Nick Kaczur did play left tackle in college. Mark LeVoir can play either left tackle or right tackle -- albeit in a backup role. Matt Light began his NFL career at right tackle and was a disaster. That, though, is more the norm around the NFL. Vollmer is pretty unique in his ability to play at both ends of the line as well as he does.
"It's a little bit unusual for tackles to be able to play both sides at a high level," Patriots coach Bill Belichick said. "Most tackles, usually, when you look at a normal draft board, you look at tackles and say, 'This tackle is more of a left tackle, and this tackle is more of a right tackle.' You have a few guys, maybe a quarter of them, as a guesstimate, where, 'This guy looks like he could be a swing tackle. ... When you look at Vollmer, he legimately can play both tackles."
Will Vollmer play both tackles the rest of the way? Belichick declined to specify on Monday whether he'd like to keep up the rotation in the future or if he'd like to settle on two guys to play the entire game. Kaczur went down with a shoulder injury in the third quarter, so the point could be moot.
But the Patriots did seem to be most produtive on Sunday with Light at left tackle and Vollmer on the right -- and it wouldn't be surprising to see them go with that tandem the rest of the way.
"I'd like to win," Belichick said. "I'd like to win. Whatever gives us the best chance to win, whatever we feel is best to win, then that’s what we’ll do."
Sunday, December 13, 2009
Baker's blocking a key to win
Much has been made this week about the production -- or lack thereof -- of the Patriots' tight ends.
But production has to do with a more than catching passes.
The only pass Tom Brady threw toward Chris Baker bounced off his helmet, a play that epitomized the rough first half the Patriots' passing game endured. But Baker had quite a bit to do with the Patriots' success running the ball -- and running the ball might have been the difference for the Patriots against the Carolina Panthers on Sunday.
The Patriots finished with 185 rushing yards, their second-highest total of the season. Laurence Maroney rushed 22 times for 94 yards, and Kevin Faulk and Sammy Morris rushed for 58 and 35 yards, respectively. Even better, all three running backs had carries for at least 15 yards in the game.
"Good blocking and good running," Patriots coach Bill Belichick said. "There's no real magic formula to it. We've got to block them, and they've got a lot of guys to block."
Baker in particular seemed to block just about everyone in his way. On the Patriots' first big play of the game, the eighth-year veteran got his hands on defensive end Julius Peppers and shoved him out of the way of Maroney, paving the way for a 17-yard gain. Later in the second quarter, Sammy Morris ran a draw up the middle in which Baker served as the lead blocker, clearing out the linebacker to give Morris room to maneuver.
The Patriots have always loved two styles of run more than any other: Draws up the middle out of the shotgun and sweeps around the edge. Both require strong blocking from tight ends.
Runs around the edge haven't produced yards consistently for the Patriots this season, but they made it work on Sunday. Even on the third-quarter run on which Morris fumbled the ball, he was 10 yards down the sideline behind Baker before safety Charles Godfrey popped the ball loose -- and that was because Baker had buried outside ilnebacker James Anderson.
"Both tight ends were able to get the edge," Baker said. "Me and Ben (Watson) were able to get the edge. We were able to get good movement and good push on the ends and the linebackers."
The hesitation of a draw play only works because it allows a tight end on the edge to get through the hole and hit the middle linebacker -- in this case, the Panthers' Jon Beason -- and prevent him from getting anywhere near the running back with the ball.
Midway through a fourth-quarter drive that led to a field goal, Baker pulled from the right side of the line to the left and plastered the Panthers' prolific middle linebacker en route to a gain of eight yards for Laurence Maroney.
"The line has to get their guys moving, and that's what they did," Baker said. "After they got their guys moving, I was able to come in there and get a good clean look and get in there after Beason."
Said Belichick, "We got the ball outside, and we also ran plays inside, so we had some balance in the running game. That helped us on some play action passes. We got some guys open."
And Watson, the tight end of the other side, made the biggest catch of the game, a third-and-5 touchdown catch that gave the Patriots the lead for the first time. The much-maligned former first-round draft pick -- he was a candidate to be released at the end of training camp -- caught three passes for 37 yards in the game.
"Everyone always asks me, 'Why don't you get the ball to Ben?'" Patriots quarterback Tom Brady said. "When we do get it to him, he makes those plays."
But production has to do with a more than catching passes.
The only pass Tom Brady threw toward Chris Baker bounced off his helmet, a play that epitomized the rough first half the Patriots' passing game endured. But Baker had quite a bit to do with the Patriots' success running the ball -- and running the ball might have been the difference for the Patriots against the Carolina Panthers on Sunday.
The Patriots finished with 185 rushing yards, their second-highest total of the season. Laurence Maroney rushed 22 times for 94 yards, and Kevin Faulk and Sammy Morris rushed for 58 and 35 yards, respectively. Even better, all three running backs had carries for at least 15 yards in the game.
"Good blocking and good running," Patriots coach Bill Belichick said. "There's no real magic formula to it. We've got to block them, and they've got a lot of guys to block."
Baker in particular seemed to block just about everyone in his way. On the Patriots' first big play of the game, the eighth-year veteran got his hands on defensive end Julius Peppers and shoved him out of the way of Maroney, paving the way for a 17-yard gain. Later in the second quarter, Sammy Morris ran a draw up the middle in which Baker served as the lead blocker, clearing out the linebacker to give Morris room to maneuver.
The Patriots have always loved two styles of run more than any other: Draws up the middle out of the shotgun and sweeps around the edge. Both require strong blocking from tight ends.
Runs around the edge haven't produced yards consistently for the Patriots this season, but they made it work on Sunday. Even on the third-quarter run on which Morris fumbled the ball, he was 10 yards down the sideline behind Baker before safety Charles Godfrey popped the ball loose -- and that was because Baker had buried outside ilnebacker James Anderson.
"Both tight ends were able to get the edge," Baker said. "Me and Ben (Watson) were able to get the edge. We were able to get good movement and good push on the ends and the linebackers."
The hesitation of a draw play only works because it allows a tight end on the edge to get through the hole and hit the middle linebacker -- in this case, the Panthers' Jon Beason -- and prevent him from getting anywhere near the running back with the ball.
Midway through a fourth-quarter drive that led to a field goal, Baker pulled from the right side of the line to the left and plastered the Panthers' prolific middle linebacker en route to a gain of eight yards for Laurence Maroney.
"The line has to get their guys moving, and that's what they did," Baker said. "After they got their guys moving, I was able to come in there and get a good clean look and get in there after Beason."
Said Belichick, "We got the ball outside, and we also ran plays inside, so we had some balance in the running game. That helped us on some play action passes. We got some guys open."
And Watson, the tight end of the other side, made the biggest catch of the game, a third-and-5 touchdown catch that gave the Patriots the lead for the first time. The much-maligned former first-round draft pick -- he was a candidate to be released at the end of training camp -- caught three passes for 37 yards in the game.
"Everyone always asks me, 'Why don't you get the ball to Ben?'" Patriots quarterback Tom Brady said. "When we do get it to him, he makes those plays."
Halftime report: Panthers 7, Patriots 7
A handful of observations from a lackluster first half:
* Boos rain down. It's hard to believe this is virtually the same offense that broke record after record just two seasons ago. Tom Brady and his cohorts were booed after a third-and-12 pass went for just two yards, and they were booed even louder when a third-and-4 pass behind Sammy Morris slightly was dropped.
A couple of ticky-tack penalty calls saved the Patriots from more boos on their next drive. Ben Watson drew a questionable pass-interference call down the right sideline, and third wide receiver Isaiah Stanback drew a defensive holding call in the end zone after Brady had missed on a pass toward Randy Moss. Kevin Faulk ran through a big hole in the middle of the line for a touchdown -- the Patriots' first in almost four full quarters of action.
* Ugly day for Moss. A summary of the first half for the Patriots' big-play wide receiver:
-- Lets a pass slip through his hands deep over the middle;
-- Sees Chris Gamble intercept a pass -- albeit an off-target pass -- thrown in his direction;
-- Catches a pass down the middle of the field only to allow linebacker Dan Connor to punch it free.
First-half numbers: One catch for 16 yards and a fumble.
The ineffectiveness of Brady -- 8-for-15 for 59 yards and an interception -- isn't helping. Moss had no shot at the pass that Brady air-mailed through the back of the end zone.
But the Patriots' most dangerous weapon, once again, hasn't been all that dangerous.
* Rotation at offensive line. With Sebastian Vollmer returning to action, the Patriots have gone with a straight rotation at offensive tackle. Nick Kaczur and Matt Light started the game, but Vollmer substituted first for Light and second for Kaczur, moving from left to right tackle and back again. Kaczur has had all kinds of trouble with Pro Bowl defensive end Julius Peppers, and it'll be interesting to see if the Patriots stick with the rotation or go exclusively with Light at left tackle and Vollmer at right tackle.
* Tight end blocking. Tight end Chris Baker has only had one pass thrown in his direction, and it bounced off his helmet. But catching passes isn't all Baker does. The tight end was the lead blocker on a pair of 17-yard runs in the first quarter, escorting Laurence Maroney around the left side and then pulling through the middle of the line in front of Sammy Morris.
Patriots running backs have 86 rushing yards on 16 carries thus far, an average of 5.4 yards per carry.
* Boos rain down. It's hard to believe this is virtually the same offense that broke record after record just two seasons ago. Tom Brady and his cohorts were booed after a third-and-12 pass went for just two yards, and they were booed even louder when a third-and-4 pass behind Sammy Morris slightly was dropped.
A couple of ticky-tack penalty calls saved the Patriots from more boos on their next drive. Ben Watson drew a questionable pass-interference call down the right sideline, and third wide receiver Isaiah Stanback drew a defensive holding call in the end zone after Brady had missed on a pass toward Randy Moss. Kevin Faulk ran through a big hole in the middle of the line for a touchdown -- the Patriots' first in almost four full quarters of action.
* Ugly day for Moss. A summary of the first half for the Patriots' big-play wide receiver:
-- Lets a pass slip through his hands deep over the middle;
-- Sees Chris Gamble intercept a pass -- albeit an off-target pass -- thrown in his direction;
-- Catches a pass down the middle of the field only to allow linebacker Dan Connor to punch it free.
First-half numbers: One catch for 16 yards and a fumble.
The ineffectiveness of Brady -- 8-for-15 for 59 yards and an interception -- isn't helping. Moss had no shot at the pass that Brady air-mailed through the back of the end zone.
But the Patriots' most dangerous weapon, once again, hasn't been all that dangerous.
* Rotation at offensive line. With Sebastian Vollmer returning to action, the Patriots have gone with a straight rotation at offensive tackle. Nick Kaczur and Matt Light started the game, but Vollmer substituted first for Light and second for Kaczur, moving from left to right tackle and back again. Kaczur has had all kinds of trouble with Pro Bowl defensive end Julius Peppers, and it'll be interesting to see if the Patriots stick with the rotation or go exclusively with Light at left tackle and Vollmer at right tackle.
* Tight end blocking. Tight end Chris Baker has only had one pass thrown in his direction, and it bounced off his helmet. But catching passes isn't all Baker does. The tight end was the lead blocker on a pair of 17-yard runs in the first quarter, escorting Laurence Maroney around the left side and then pulling through the middle of the line in front of Sammy Morris.
Patriots running backs have 86 rushing yards on 16 carries thus far, an average of 5.4 yards per carry.
Nagging injuries slowing Patriots down
From ESPN's Adam Schefter this morning: "Tom Brady will play today -- but those ribs, and that finger, and that shoulder, and that knee, are a little worse than people realize."
Brady hasn't looked like himself for the last two weeks.
The Patriots haven't looked like themselves, either.
Maybe injuries have been a factor for both.
The Patriots' injury report has looked a little bit like its 53-man roster this month. Seventeen players were listed as questionable for the game at New Orleans, and 14 were listed as questionable a week ago against Miami. Nine were listed as questionable for today's game against the Carolina Panthers -- including Brady, who was listed with injuries to his right shoulder, his right finger and his ribs. Among other notables:
* LB Tully Banta-Cain (shoulder)
* WR Julian Edelman (forearm)
* DE Jarvis Green (knee)
* OT Nick Kaczur (ankle)
* OG Stephen Neal (ankle)
* RB Fred Taylor (ankle)
* DE Ty Warren (ankle)
Not one of those players were full-go during any of the Patriots' practices this week. Not one of those players will be full-go even if they're activated today. On top of that, defensive tackle Myron Pryor did not practice at all this week and almost certainly will not be active today.
Football, of course, is a game of injuries. But the Patriots have been hit hard with nagging injuries at key spots -- especially along the offensive line. Season-ending injuries can be crippling to a team, but if its best players spend week after week dealing with pain that limits their mobility or strength, well, that's almost as tough to deal with.
Brady hasn't looked like himself for the last two weeks.
The Patriots haven't looked like themselves, either.
Maybe injuries have been a factor for both.
The Patriots' injury report has looked a little bit like its 53-man roster this month. Seventeen players were listed as questionable for the game at New Orleans, and 14 were listed as questionable a week ago against Miami. Nine were listed as questionable for today's game against the Carolina Panthers -- including Brady, who was listed with injuries to his right shoulder, his right finger and his ribs. Among other notables:
* LB Tully Banta-Cain (shoulder)
* WR Julian Edelman (forearm)
* DE Jarvis Green (knee)
* OT Nick Kaczur (ankle)
* OG Stephen Neal (ankle)
* RB Fred Taylor (ankle)
* DE Ty Warren (ankle)
Not one of those players were full-go during any of the Patriots' practices this week. Not one of those players will be full-go even if they're activated today. On top of that, defensive tackle Myron Pryor did not practice at all this week and almost certainly will not be active today.
Football, of course, is a game of injuries. But the Patriots have been hit hard with nagging injuries at key spots -- especially along the offensive line. Season-ending injuries can be crippling to a team, but if its best players spend week after week dealing with pain that limits their mobility or strength, well, that's almost as tough to deal with.
Going five years with Jason Bay
In what might be little more than posturing -- it would be irresponsible, after all, to close the door this early -- Jason Bay's agent told several reporters on Saturday that the left fielder is prepared to turn his attention to the other offers on the table.
"We don't agree with their evaluation of the player," agent Joe Urbon said. "Frankly, we have other offers on the table that are of greater interest to Jason."
The educated guess is that Theo Epstein would be willing to overpay a little bit for Bay in the short-term but thus far have refused to lock the Red Sox into a five-year contract. Bay turned 31 years old in September, and he would go into the final season of a five-year deal at the age of 35, turning 36 in time for that year's playoffs.
There's little doubt the left fielder's already limited range would diminish as he turned 34 and 35 years old.
With the contract of David Ortiz expiring after the 2010 season, however, there might be a spot for Bay as the Red Sox designated hitter -- if his bat holds up, that is, better than his range in the outfield.
Making predictions can be tricky. That's the biggest reason the Red Sox are so reluctant to give out five-year contracts to players already on the wrong side of 30 -- or, at least, five-year contracts to players not named J.D. Drew on the wrong side of 30.
(Drew has quite a bit to do with these negotiations -- and it's not just the fact that his contract, both in length and in amount, is a baseline for Bay. Drew might still be an above-average right fielder at age 33 or age 34, but it behooves the Red Sox to keep the option open to move him to left field either in 2010 or 2011. If Bay balks at the idea of being the heir to David Ortiz as the team's full-time designated hitter, there might not be room for both Bay and Drew in the Red Sox outfield in 2011.)
Trying to predict how well Bay will play defense in five years is one thing. Trying to predict how well Bay will hit, though, might be even more important. Let's take a look at the similar hitters on Bay's Baseball-Reference.com page and see how well they would have justified the type of contract Bay appears to want:
(For the sake of comparison, to this point in his career, Bay has a slash line of .280/.376/.519 and an OPS+ of 131. At the age of 30, Bay had a slash line of .267/.384/.537 and an OPS+ of 134.)
Ryan Klesko: 145 OPS+ at age 30
Age 31: .300/.388/.537 (OPS+ of 152)
Age 32: .252/.354/.456 (118)
Age 33: .291/.399/.448 (129)
Age 34: .248/.358/.418 (110)
Age 35: Missed season with shoulder injury
Geoff Jenkins: 130 OPS+ at age 30
Age 31: .271/.357/.434 (OPS+ of 101)
Age 32: .255/.319/.471 (101)
Age 33: .301/.392/.392 (79)
Age 34: Released before the end of spring training
Tim Salmon: 119 OPS+ at age 30
Age 31: .290/.404/.540 (OPS+ of 135)
Age 32: .227/.365/.383 (98)
Age 33: .286/.380/.503 (133)
Age 34: .275/.374/.464 (122)
Age 35: .253/.306/.323 (67)
Bobby Higginson: 120 OPS+ at age 30
Age 31: .282/.345/.417 (OPS+ of 109)
Age 32: .235/.320/.369 (88)
Age 33: .246/.353/.388 (98)
Age 34: .077/.111/.077 (minus-48)
Age 35: Out of baseball
Jim Edmonds: 146 OPS+ at age 30
Age 31: .304/.410/.564 (OPS+ of 149)
Age 32: .311/.420/.561 (158)
Age 33: .275/.385/.617 (160)
Age 34: .301/.418/.643 (170)
Age 35: .263/.385/.533 (137)
George Foster: 155 OPS+ at age 30
Age 31: .273/.362/.473 (OPS+ of 131)
Age 32: .295/.373/.519 (150)
Age 33: .247/.309/.367 (90)
Age 34: .241/.289/.419 (95)
Age 35: .269/.311/.443 (111)
Willie Stargell: 125 OPS+ at age 30
Age 31: .295/.398/.628 (OPS+ of 185)
Age 32: .293/.373/.558 (163)
Age 33: .299/.392/.646 (186)
Age 34: .301/.407/.537 (167)
Age 35: .295/.375/.516 (147)
Richard Hidalgo: OPS+ of 128 at age 30
Age 31: Played in Japan
Age 32: Released in spring training
Kevin Mitchell: OPS+ of 118 at age 30
Age 31: .341/.385/.601 (OPS+ of 159)
Age 32: .326/.429/.681 (185)
Age 33: Played in Japan
Age 34: .316/.420/.505 (138)
Age 35: .153/.275/.373 (66)
The 10th player on the list, actually, is Drew, but his data has to be thrown out because he hasn't played his age 34 or age 35 seasons yet -- the seasons most relevant to the Urbon-Epstein debate.
Of the above nine, only Edmonds and Stargell would have justified a $15 million salary at the age of 35. Klesko was all but done. Salmon was all but done. Mitchell was all but done. Hidalgo, Higginson and Jenkins were already done. Foster was productive but not exactly a middle-of-the-order type of hitter.
(The steroid era makes comparisons difficult given the way chemical assistance prolonged careers but also caused injuries and precipitous drops in production. It is what it is. There's no way around it.)
In the last five seasons, 44 outfielders have qualified for the batting title at the age of 34 or older. Seventeen have compiled an OPS+ of 120 or better. Eight have compiled an OPS+ of 130 or better.
Of the 26 outfielders who have qualified for the batting title at age 35 this decade, 12 have put up an OPS+ of 120 or better. Among those who fell short: Bobby Abreu, Sammy Sosa, Magglio Ordonez, Bernie Williams, Brian Giles, Jermaine Dye and Moises Alou.
(The tale of Ordonez ought to be particularly cautionary -- especially he signed for the same five-year, $75 million deal an educated guess has Bay being willing to accept.)
Any way you look at it, it's a 50-50 shot -- or worse -- that Bay will be a $15 million hitter, let alone fielder, by the time he's 35 years old. It's tough to blame his agent for holding out for a fifth year. It's tough to blame the Red Sox, though, for being so reluctant to give it to him.
"We don't agree with their evaluation of the player," agent Joe Urbon said. "Frankly, we have other offers on the table that are of greater interest to Jason."
The educated guess is that Theo Epstein would be willing to overpay a little bit for Bay in the short-term but thus far have refused to lock the Red Sox into a five-year contract. Bay turned 31 years old in September, and he would go into the final season of a five-year deal at the age of 35, turning 36 in time for that year's playoffs.
There's little doubt the left fielder's already limited range would diminish as he turned 34 and 35 years old.
With the contract of David Ortiz expiring after the 2010 season, however, there might be a spot for Bay as the Red Sox designated hitter -- if his bat holds up, that is, better than his range in the outfield.
Making predictions can be tricky. That's the biggest reason the Red Sox are so reluctant to give out five-year contracts to players already on the wrong side of 30 -- or, at least, five-year contracts to players not named J.D. Drew on the wrong side of 30.
(Drew has quite a bit to do with these negotiations -- and it's not just the fact that his contract, both in length and in amount, is a baseline for Bay. Drew might still be an above-average right fielder at age 33 or age 34, but it behooves the Red Sox to keep the option open to move him to left field either in 2010 or 2011. If Bay balks at the idea of being the heir to David Ortiz as the team's full-time designated hitter, there might not be room for both Bay and Drew in the Red Sox outfield in 2011.)
Trying to predict how well Bay will play defense in five years is one thing. Trying to predict how well Bay will hit, though, might be even more important. Let's take a look at the similar hitters on Bay's Baseball-Reference.com page and see how well they would have justified the type of contract Bay appears to want:
(For the sake of comparison, to this point in his career, Bay has a slash line of .280/.376/.519 and an OPS+ of 131. At the age of 30, Bay had a slash line of .267/.384/.537 and an OPS+ of 134.)
Ryan Klesko: 145 OPS+ at age 30
Age 31: .300/.388/.537 (OPS+ of 152)
Age 32: .252/.354/.456 (118)
Age 33: .291/.399/.448 (129)
Age 34: .248/.358/.418 (110)
Age 35: Missed season with shoulder injury
Geoff Jenkins: 130 OPS+ at age 30
Age 31: .271/.357/.434 (OPS+ of 101)
Age 32: .255/.319/.471 (101)
Age 33: .301/.392/.392 (79)
Age 34: Released before the end of spring training
Tim Salmon: 119 OPS+ at age 30
Age 31: .290/.404/.540 (OPS+ of 135)
Age 32: .227/.365/.383 (98)
Age 33: .286/.380/.503 (133)
Age 34: .275/.374/.464 (122)
Age 35: .253/.306/.323 (67)
Bobby Higginson: 120 OPS+ at age 30
Age 31: .282/.345/.417 (OPS+ of 109)
Age 32: .235/.320/.369 (88)
Age 33: .246/.353/.388 (98)
Age 34: .077/.111/.077 (minus-48)
Age 35: Out of baseball
Jim Edmonds: 146 OPS+ at age 30
Age 31: .304/.410/.564 (OPS+ of 149)
Age 32: .311/.420/.561 (158)
Age 33: .275/.385/.617 (160)
Age 34: .301/.418/.643 (170)
Age 35: .263/.385/.533 (137)
George Foster: 155 OPS+ at age 30
Age 31: .273/.362/.473 (OPS+ of 131)
Age 32: .295/.373/.519 (150)
Age 33: .247/.309/.367 (90)
Age 34: .241/.289/.419 (95)
Age 35: .269/.311/.443 (111)
Willie Stargell: 125 OPS+ at age 30
Age 31: .295/.398/.628 (OPS+ of 185)
Age 32: .293/.373/.558 (163)
Age 33: .299/.392/.646 (186)
Age 34: .301/.407/.537 (167)
Age 35: .295/.375/.516 (147)
Richard Hidalgo: OPS+ of 128 at age 30
Age 31: Played in Japan
Age 32: Released in spring training
Kevin Mitchell: OPS+ of 118 at age 30
Age 31: .341/.385/.601 (OPS+ of 159)
Age 32: .326/.429/.681 (185)
Age 33: Played in Japan
Age 34: .316/.420/.505 (138)
Age 35: .153/.275/.373 (66)
The 10th player on the list, actually, is Drew, but his data has to be thrown out because he hasn't played his age 34 or age 35 seasons yet -- the seasons most relevant to the Urbon-Epstein debate.
Of the above nine, only Edmonds and Stargell would have justified a $15 million salary at the age of 35. Klesko was all but done. Salmon was all but done. Mitchell was all but done. Hidalgo, Higginson and Jenkins were already done. Foster was productive but not exactly a middle-of-the-order type of hitter.
(The steroid era makes comparisons difficult given the way chemical assistance prolonged careers but also caused injuries and precipitous drops in production. It is what it is. There's no way around it.)
In the last five seasons, 44 outfielders have qualified for the batting title at the age of 34 or older. Seventeen have compiled an OPS+ of 120 or better. Eight have compiled an OPS+ of 130 or better.
Of the 26 outfielders who have qualified for the batting title at age 35 this decade, 12 have put up an OPS+ of 120 or better. Among those who fell short: Bobby Abreu, Sammy Sosa, Magglio Ordonez, Bernie Williams, Brian Giles, Jermaine Dye and Moises Alou.
(The tale of Ordonez ought to be particularly cautionary -- especially he signed for the same five-year, $75 million deal an educated guess has Bay being willing to accept.)
Any way you look at it, it's a 50-50 shot -- or worse -- that Bay will be a $15 million hitter, let alone fielder, by the time he's 35 years old. It's tough to blame his agent for holding out for a fifth year. It's tough to blame the Red Sox, though, for being so reluctant to give it to him.
Friday, December 11, 2009
Light has edge on Kaczur along line
Who wants to talk about something other than LateGate?
(Raises hand.)
Rookie left tackle Sebastian Vollmer was listed as "probable" on the Patriots' injury report on Friday, an indication that he's healthy again and ready to go.
The return of Vollmer presents Bill Belichick with the conundrum he's been avoiding since Vollmer first replaced Matt Light at left tackle in mid-October: Who's the odd man out?
Light and Nick Kaczur have anchored the two ends of the Patriots' offensive line for the last three seasons. But Vollmer, it appears, has been the Patriots' best pass-blocking and run-blocking tackle. Either Kaczur or Light is going to have to step aside to allow the rookie to play.
Belichick isn't going to base his decision simply on the way Kaczur and Light played on Sunday against Miami. A close examination of that game, though, might give us a better sense of the ability of each player -- a sense based on something other than reputation, anyway.
Let's do this the way they do it at ProFootballFocus.com. Let's go to the film and review each snap and grade both of the Patriots' offensive tackles:
* One point for a clean block, for the lineman doing his job;
* No points for a wishy-washy block or for a play in which the lineman wasn't involved -- though those plays are few and far between;
* Minus-one for getting beat on a pass-rush or pushed back on a run.
It's entirely subjective. But it's all we've got.
First half, first drive (6 plays)
Kaczur: 4
Light: 2
On a play-action pass that took a long time to develop, Light couldn't hold off Joey Porter long enough to keep him from drilling Brady in the ribs. Kaczur, on the other hand, boxed Keith Langford away from Brady until the ball was gone.
First half, second drive (13 plays)
Kaczur: 4
Light: 11
Kaczur picked up a couple of minuses on this drive -- including one on a third-and-7 pass in which he almost let his assigned guy get to Brady. But both Kaczur and Light executed textbook blocks on Kevin Faulk's rushing touchdown, rotating on an axis to keep Langford and Jason Taylor out of the play, respectively. Dan Koppen got downfield for the key block on Channing Crowder, but both Kaczur and Light did their jobs.
First half, third drive (4 plays)
Kaczur: 0
Light: 0
Light released clean on a third-and-2 screen pass but failed to block Vontae Davis, allowing the cornerback to drill Kevin Faulk inches short of the first-down marker. Randy Moss didn't make much of an effort to go after Gibril Wilson, either.
First half, fourth drive (7 plays)
Kaczur: 4
Light: 3
On the very next play, Light overran linebacker Akin Ayodele on a wide-receiver screen to the left. On the fourth-and-1 run the Dolphins stuffed, Kaczur finished the play flat on his back two yards deep in the Patriots' backfield.
First half, 30 total plays
Kaczur: 12
Light: 16
Second half, first drive (2 plays)
Kaczur: 1
Light: 1
Brady took a shot when he threw his 81-yard touchdown pass to Sam Aiken, but that was because defensive end Randy Starks torched Koppen one-on-one.
Second half, second drive (3 plays)
Kaczur: 3
Light: 2
On a third-and-6 pass down the right side for Moss, Light and Kaczur handled Porter and Cameron Wake, respectively. The pressure again came from the inside when Starks again got past Koppen.
Second half, third drive (6 plays)
Kaczur: 5
Light: 4
Jason Taylor came after Light on a deep pass to Welker in the middle, but by the time Brady released the ball, Light had pushed him a good 12 yards behind the line of scrimmage. Two plays later, on a play designed to be a wide-receiver screen, all Kaczur and Light did was dive at the feet of their assigned defenders -- but on a quick pass, their only job was to make sure their guys couldn't get their hands up. If they were looking down at the offensive linemen rolling into their ankles, they weren't going to bat away any passes.
Second half, fourth drive (7 plays)
Kaczur: 5
Light: 6
On the first-and-goal run before Brady threw his interception, Kaczur found himself pushed back at the line of scrimmage by Tony McDaniel, and the Dolphins plugged all the gaps to drop Sammy Morris for a loss of a yard.
Second half, fifth drive (3 plays)
Kaczur: 1
Light: 3
On the third-and-6 run by Faulk, Kaczur couldn't get Starks off the line of scrimmage, and Crowder quickly plugged the gap.
Second half, sixth drive (3 plays)
Kaczur: 1
Light: 2
The Patriots ran a stretch play to the edge on first-and-10 -- but they did so away from right side where both Light and Kaczur were. Instead, they ran to the left behind Mark LeVoir and the two tight ends -- and the play went nowhere.
Second half, seventh drive (3 plays)
Kaczur: 1
Light: 3
On the final meaningful play of the game, Kaczur got himself steamrolled by Wake, allowing the hit on Brady that caused him to throw it straight to Crowder.
Second half, 27 total plays
Kaczur: 17
Light: 21
Game, 57 total plays
Kaczur: 29
Light: 37
Edge to Light. Look for the two-time Pro Bowler to start at left tackle with Vollmer at right tackle on Sunday against Carolina.
(ProFootballFocus.com, for what it's worth, disagrees.)
(Raises hand.)
Rookie left tackle Sebastian Vollmer was listed as "probable" on the Patriots' injury report on Friday, an indication that he's healthy again and ready to go.
The return of Vollmer presents Bill Belichick with the conundrum he's been avoiding since Vollmer first replaced Matt Light at left tackle in mid-October: Who's the odd man out?
Light and Nick Kaczur have anchored the two ends of the Patriots' offensive line for the last three seasons. But Vollmer, it appears, has been the Patriots' best pass-blocking and run-blocking tackle. Either Kaczur or Light is going to have to step aside to allow the rookie to play.
Belichick isn't going to base his decision simply on the way Kaczur and Light played on Sunday against Miami. A close examination of that game, though, might give us a better sense of the ability of each player -- a sense based on something other than reputation, anyway.
Let's do this the way they do it at ProFootballFocus.com. Let's go to the film and review each snap and grade both of the Patriots' offensive tackles:
* One point for a clean block, for the lineman doing his job;
* No points for a wishy-washy block or for a play in which the lineman wasn't involved -- though those plays are few and far between;
* Minus-one for getting beat on a pass-rush or pushed back on a run.
It's entirely subjective. But it's all we've got.
First half, first drive (6 plays)
Kaczur: 4
Light: 2
On a play-action pass that took a long time to develop, Light couldn't hold off Joey Porter long enough to keep him from drilling Brady in the ribs. Kaczur, on the other hand, boxed Keith Langford away from Brady until the ball was gone.
First half, second drive (13 plays)
Kaczur: 4
Light: 11
Kaczur picked up a couple of minuses on this drive -- including one on a third-and-7 pass in which he almost let his assigned guy get to Brady. But both Kaczur and Light executed textbook blocks on Kevin Faulk's rushing touchdown, rotating on an axis to keep Langford and Jason Taylor out of the play, respectively. Dan Koppen got downfield for the key block on Channing Crowder, but both Kaczur and Light did their jobs.
First half, third drive (4 plays)
Kaczur: 0
Light: 0
Light released clean on a third-and-2 screen pass but failed to block Vontae Davis, allowing the cornerback to drill Kevin Faulk inches short of the first-down marker. Randy Moss didn't make much of an effort to go after Gibril Wilson, either.
First half, fourth drive (7 plays)
Kaczur: 4
Light: 3
On the very next play, Light overran linebacker Akin Ayodele on a wide-receiver screen to the left. On the fourth-and-1 run the Dolphins stuffed, Kaczur finished the play flat on his back two yards deep in the Patriots' backfield.
First half, 30 total plays
Kaczur: 12
Light: 16
Second half, first drive (2 plays)
Kaczur: 1
Light: 1
Brady took a shot when he threw his 81-yard touchdown pass to Sam Aiken, but that was because defensive end Randy Starks torched Koppen one-on-one.
Second half, second drive (3 plays)
Kaczur: 3
Light: 2
On a third-and-6 pass down the right side for Moss, Light and Kaczur handled Porter and Cameron Wake, respectively. The pressure again came from the inside when Starks again got past Koppen.
Second half, third drive (6 plays)
Kaczur: 5
Light: 4
Jason Taylor came after Light on a deep pass to Welker in the middle, but by the time Brady released the ball, Light had pushed him a good 12 yards behind the line of scrimmage. Two plays later, on a play designed to be a wide-receiver screen, all Kaczur and Light did was dive at the feet of their assigned defenders -- but on a quick pass, their only job was to make sure their guys couldn't get their hands up. If they were looking down at the offensive linemen rolling into their ankles, they weren't going to bat away any passes.
Second half, fourth drive (7 plays)
Kaczur: 5
Light: 6
On the first-and-goal run before Brady threw his interception, Kaczur found himself pushed back at the line of scrimmage by Tony McDaniel, and the Dolphins plugged all the gaps to drop Sammy Morris for a loss of a yard.
Second half, fifth drive (3 plays)
Kaczur: 1
Light: 3
On the third-and-6 run by Faulk, Kaczur couldn't get Starks off the line of scrimmage, and Crowder quickly plugged the gap.
Second half, sixth drive (3 plays)
Kaczur: 1
Light: 2
The Patriots ran a stretch play to the edge on first-and-10 -- but they did so away from right side where both Light and Kaczur were. Instead, they ran to the left behind Mark LeVoir and the two tight ends -- and the play went nowhere.
Second half, seventh drive (3 plays)
Kaczur: 1
Light: 3
On the final meaningful play of the game, Kaczur got himself steamrolled by Wake, allowing the hit on Brady that caused him to throw it straight to Crowder.
Second half, 27 total plays
Kaczur: 17
Light: 21
Game, 57 total plays
Kaczur: 29
Light: 37
Edge to Light. Look for the two-time Pro Bowler to start at left tackle with Vollmer at right tackle on Sunday against Carolina.
(ProFootballFocus.com, for what it's worth, disagrees.)
Boof!
The resume of former Twins starter Boof Bonser is far from impressive. The pitcher the Twins acquired (along with Joe Nathan and Francisco Liriano) from the Giants for A.J. Pierzynski seems to have washed out as a starting pitcher, putting up a 5.88 ERA as a starter in 2008 before missing the entire 2009 season with a torn labrum and torn rotator cuff.
It's a low-risk pickup for the Red Sox, and he certainly would be a reasonable fit as the long reliever at the end of the bullpen. After the trade of Justin Masterson at the end of July, the Red Sox really didn't have anyone in their bullpen capable of taking over in the fifth inning and pitching the rest of the way.
Manny Delcarmen and Ramon Ramirez made 20 and 15 appearances, respectively, in games in which the Red Sox already led or trailed by four or more runs, and Hideki Okajima even made eight appearances in what could be considered a mop-up role. Takashi Saito spent most of the season as the team's designated mop-up reliever, but even Saito pitched more than one inning just six times all season.
Bonser has a career strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.54 and has had quite a bit of success (.247/.296/.404) against righties, so he could be a nice fit at the back end of the Red Sox bullpen.
If he's not, well, he'll probably be released in spring training without having cost the Red Sox all that much money. He's arbitration-eligible this winter and will be awarded a salary somewhere in the $1 million range, but if the Red Sox cut him before the season begins, he'll be entitled only to 45 days' termination pay.
***
Just for fun: A couple of years ago, when I was working at the St. Cloud Times in central Minnesota, a coworker and I tackled a completely pointless project -- writing songs about Twins players to the tune of Beatles songs. Pitcher Nick Blackburn, whose name fits nicely into the tune of "Blackbird," inspired the project, but more than 30 followed after that.
Writing a Beatles parody about Bonser especially seems to fit given that his given name at birth actually was John Paul Bonser. He had it legally changed to Boof back in 2001.
Anyway, the below song is a bit outdated since the Red Sox likely see Bonser as a last-arm-in-the-bullpen type of guy rather than a starting pitcher. He also hasn't been as productive as he was expected to be when this song was written back two years ago.
But why should that stop us? Enjoy.
Boof (to the tune of "Help!")
Boof!
I need a starter!
Boof!
Not just any starter!
Boof!
You know I need six innings!
Booooooooof!
When he was younger, so much younger than today
He couldn’t seem to win and had a lousy ERA
And now those pounds are gone; he feels way more mature
Now he finds, his curve is fine, his wins are more assured
Boof, oh, yes he can keep the ball down
And he’ll get them all to hit it on the ground
Boof can keep the bullpen safe and sound
Won’t you please, please, Boof, please?
And now the staff has changed in, oh, so many ways
Johan Santana somehow vanished in the haze
But every now and then I see Mr. Bonser
I know that we just need him like we’ve never done before
Boof, oh, yes, you can strike them all out
And you’ll keep the Twins from losing in a rout
Boof, what did you do with all those pounds?
Won’t you please, please, Boof, please?
When he was younger, so much younger than today
He always thought he’d do his pitching out there by the Bay
But San Francisco thought they needed A.J. more
And now they find they’ve changed their mind, and runs they now can’t score
Boof, oh, yes he can keep the ball down
And he’ll get them all to hit it on the ground
Boof can keep the bullpen safe and sound
Won’t you please, please, Boof, please?
Boof, please?
Boof, please?
Ooooo
It's a low-risk pickup for the Red Sox, and he certainly would be a reasonable fit as the long reliever at the end of the bullpen. After the trade of Justin Masterson at the end of July, the Red Sox really didn't have anyone in their bullpen capable of taking over in the fifth inning and pitching the rest of the way.
Manny Delcarmen and Ramon Ramirez made 20 and 15 appearances, respectively, in games in which the Red Sox already led or trailed by four or more runs, and Hideki Okajima even made eight appearances in what could be considered a mop-up role. Takashi Saito spent most of the season as the team's designated mop-up reliever, but even Saito pitched more than one inning just six times all season.
Bonser has a career strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.54 and has had quite a bit of success (.247/.296/.404) against righties, so he could be a nice fit at the back end of the Red Sox bullpen.
If he's not, well, he'll probably be released in spring training without having cost the Red Sox all that much money. He's arbitration-eligible this winter and will be awarded a salary somewhere in the $1 million range, but if the Red Sox cut him before the season begins, he'll be entitled only to 45 days' termination pay.
***
Just for fun: A couple of years ago, when I was working at the St. Cloud Times in central Minnesota, a coworker and I tackled a completely pointless project -- writing songs about Twins players to the tune of Beatles songs. Pitcher Nick Blackburn, whose name fits nicely into the tune of "Blackbird," inspired the project, but more than 30 followed after that.
Writing a Beatles parody about Bonser especially seems to fit given that his given name at birth actually was John Paul Bonser. He had it legally changed to Boof back in 2001.
Anyway, the below song is a bit outdated since the Red Sox likely see Bonser as a last-arm-in-the-bullpen type of guy rather than a starting pitcher. He also hasn't been as productive as he was expected to be when this song was written back two years ago.
But why should that stop us? Enjoy.
Boof (to the tune of "Help!")
Boof!
I need a starter!
Boof!
Not just any starter!
Boof!
You know I need six innings!
Booooooooof!
When he was younger, so much younger than today
He couldn’t seem to win and had a lousy ERA
And now those pounds are gone; he feels way more mature
Now he finds, his curve is fine, his wins are more assured
Boof, oh, yes he can keep the ball down
And he’ll get them all to hit it on the ground
Boof can keep the bullpen safe and sound
Won’t you please, please, Boof, please?
And now the staff has changed in, oh, so many ways
Johan Santana somehow vanished in the haze
But every now and then I see Mr. Bonser
I know that we just need him like we’ve never done before
Boof, oh, yes, you can strike them all out
And you’ll keep the Twins from losing in a rout
Boof, what did you do with all those pounds?
Won’t you please, please, Boof, please?
When he was younger, so much younger than today
He always thought he’d do his pitching out there by the Bay
But San Francisco thought they needed A.J. more
And now they find they’ve changed their mind, and runs they now can’t score
Boof, oh, yes he can keep the ball down
And he’ll get them all to hit it on the ground
Boof can keep the bullpen safe and sound
Won’t you please, please, Boof, please?
Boof, please?
Boof, please?
Ooooo
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Lowell deal gives Red Sox tremendous infield 'D'
And that's even without a move to sign Adrian Beltre.
Mike Lowell reportedly has been shipped to Texas in a deal for minor-leaguer Max Ramirez, a catcher/first base-type who can hit for power and who could probably be ready for a platoon with David Ortiz this spring.
(Red Sox blog Surviving Grady might put the Ramirez acquisition in the best terms: "This is, of course, part of Theo's "If I can't have Hanley Ramirez, by God, I'll sign everyone else in baseball named Ramirez" master plan, which just keeps picking up speed.")
Theo Epstein has plenty of time to keep making moves.
If this is his final move of the offseason that involves his infield, though, he's turned a below-average defensive infield into a tremendous defensive infield. A year ago, the offensive-minded Red Sox saw opposing batters hit .244 when they hit the ball on the ground -- a tick above the American League average of .240. The defensive-minded Seattle Mariners, playing most of the season with Beltre at third base, saw opponents hit .227 when they hit the ball on the ground.
Oh, and the move hasn't cost the Red Sox too much at the plate, either. Consider this player-by-player comparison:
Player A, 2008-09: .282/.337/.468 (.805)
Player B, 2008-09: .270/.333/.398 (.730)
Player A is Mike Lowell.
Player B is Casey Kotchman, who bounced around between three teams and had to adapt to a reserve role during the second half of last season. Their on-base percentages still are almost identical.
Kotchman, of course, would play first base every day for the Red Sox if the season started today, and Kevin Youkilis would play third base every day. Dustin Pedroia would play second base, and Marco Scutaro would play shortstop. (Not the other way around.)
Kotchman is an elite defensive first baseman, according to his Fielding Bible numbers (from BillJamesOnline.net):
2007: 18 runs saved (2nd in major leagues)
2008: 10 runs saved (5th in major leagues)
2009: 7 runs saved (7th in major leagues)
(Keep in mind Kotchman played only sparingly over the final two months of the season, too, after his July 31 trade to the Red Sox.)
Only Albert Pujols has consistently been a better defensive first baseman over the last three seasons than Kotchman.
And this is the worst-case scenario.
It's more likely that Epstein already has the parameters of a deal with slick-fielding third baseman Adrian Beltre, a move that would upgrade the Red Sox defensively even more. Youkilis then would move back to first base, and the Red Sox would have four infielders who are among the best in baseball at their respective positions.
Merry Christmas, Clay Buchholz.
Beltre, as previously discussed here, is not a crippling downgrade from Lowell at the plate. During the last two seasons, Beltre has an OPS of .739 -- but he played his home games at Safeco Field, a stadium that does little to reward the power of righthanded hitters.
(This is why the Mariners don't seem to see Jason Bay as a fit.)
The upgrade from Lowell to Beltre in the field seems to be more than enough to compensate for the difference. Beltre was credited with having saved 21 runs last season by John Dewan's Fielding Bible system, and Lowell was charged with having cost the Red Sox 17 runs last season. That's a difference of almost 40 runs -- or, since 10 runs is roughly equivalent to a win, almost four wins.
That's why, according to FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement statistics, Beltre would be an enormous upgrade on Lowell even without a bounce-back year at the plate:
Lowell, 2008/09: 3.2/1.2 -- 4.4 WAR
Beltre, 2008/09: 4.1/2.4 -- 6.5 WAR
What's most interesting is the fact that the Red Sox will absorb so much money to get rid of Lowell. The veteran still had plenty of value as a platoon-style designated hitter with David Ortiz -- albeit at the cost of a roster spot -- but Epstein (and Terry Francona) must have believed Lowell wouldn't be his same positive clubhouse presence if he was relegated to such a role.
Either that, or Epstein has so much respect for Lowell that he made sure to find him a landing where he could play on something of a regular basis.
He probably won't play much third base for Texas.
As long as he's not playing third base for Boston, though, the Red Sox are going to be a significantly better defensive team.
Mike Lowell reportedly has been shipped to Texas in a deal for minor-leaguer Max Ramirez, a catcher/first base-type who can hit for power and who could probably be ready for a platoon with David Ortiz this spring.
(Red Sox blog Surviving Grady might put the Ramirez acquisition in the best terms: "This is, of course, part of Theo's "If I can't have Hanley Ramirez, by God, I'll sign everyone else in baseball named Ramirez" master plan, which just keeps picking up speed.")
Theo Epstein has plenty of time to keep making moves.
If this is his final move of the offseason that involves his infield, though, he's turned a below-average defensive infield into a tremendous defensive infield. A year ago, the offensive-minded Red Sox saw opposing batters hit .244 when they hit the ball on the ground -- a tick above the American League average of .240. The defensive-minded Seattle Mariners, playing most of the season with Beltre at third base, saw opponents hit .227 when they hit the ball on the ground.
Oh, and the move hasn't cost the Red Sox too much at the plate, either. Consider this player-by-player comparison:
Player A, 2008-09: .282/.337/.468 (.805)
Player B, 2008-09: .270/.333/.398 (.730)
Player A is Mike Lowell.
Player B is Casey Kotchman, who bounced around between three teams and had to adapt to a reserve role during the second half of last season. Their on-base percentages still are almost identical.
Kotchman, of course, would play first base every day for the Red Sox if the season started today, and Kevin Youkilis would play third base every day. Dustin Pedroia would play second base, and Marco Scutaro would play shortstop. (Not the other way around.)
Kotchman is an elite defensive first baseman, according to his Fielding Bible numbers (from BillJamesOnline.net):
2007: 18 runs saved (2nd in major leagues)
2008: 10 runs saved (5th in major leagues)
2009: 7 runs saved (7th in major leagues)
(Keep in mind Kotchman played only sparingly over the final two months of the season, too, after his July 31 trade to the Red Sox.)
Only Albert Pujols has consistently been a better defensive first baseman over the last three seasons than Kotchman.
And this is the worst-case scenario.
It's more likely that Epstein already has the parameters of a deal with slick-fielding third baseman Adrian Beltre, a move that would upgrade the Red Sox defensively even more. Youkilis then would move back to first base, and the Red Sox would have four infielders who are among the best in baseball at their respective positions.
Merry Christmas, Clay Buchholz.
Beltre, as previously discussed here, is not a crippling downgrade from Lowell at the plate. During the last two seasons, Beltre has an OPS of .739 -- but he played his home games at Safeco Field, a stadium that does little to reward the power of righthanded hitters.
(This is why the Mariners don't seem to see Jason Bay as a fit.)
The upgrade from Lowell to Beltre in the field seems to be more than enough to compensate for the difference. Beltre was credited with having saved 21 runs last season by John Dewan's Fielding Bible system, and Lowell was charged with having cost the Red Sox 17 runs last season. That's a difference of almost 40 runs -- or, since 10 runs is roughly equivalent to a win, almost four wins.
That's why, according to FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement statistics, Beltre would be an enormous upgrade on Lowell even without a bounce-back year at the plate:
Lowell, 2008/09: 3.2/1.2 -- 4.4 WAR
Beltre, 2008/09: 4.1/2.4 -- 6.5 WAR
What's most interesting is the fact that the Red Sox will absorb so much money to get rid of Lowell. The veteran still had plenty of value as a platoon-style designated hitter with David Ortiz -- albeit at the cost of a roster spot -- but Epstein (and Terry Francona) must have believed Lowell wouldn't be his same positive clubhouse presence if he was relegated to such a role.
Either that, or Epstein has so much respect for Lowell that he made sure to find him a landing where he could play on something of a regular basis.
He probably won't play much third base for Texas.
As long as he's not playing third base for Boston, though, the Red Sox are going to be a significantly better defensive team.
Why the Red Sox shouldn't overreact
To take things a step further: Writers and radio talk-show hosts alike are starting to clamor for Theo Epstein to do something big this offseason because the Yankees are pulling away.
They're wrong.
In fact, it's pretty easy to demonstrate why the Red Sox already are vastly improved over the team they fielded on Opening Day last season -- a deal for Jason Bay or an adequate replacement notwithstanding.
Hold onto your hats: We're going to do this using the Wins Above Replacement statistic. The statistic itself is more complex than the NFL's quarterback rating, but here's the basic gist: It calculates how many runs a player produces at the plate and how many runs a player prevents in the field. You then compare this number to the number of runs an average player at that particular position would have produced and prevented.
Every 10 extra runs produced or prevented, people who are smarter than me have figured out, tends to turn into one extra win -- hence Wins Above Replacement. Voila.
The beauty of WAR is that it's cumulative. A guy who hits .300 and play 100 games is less valuable than a guy who hits .300 and plays 120 games. A relief pitcher with a 2.00 ERA in 70 innings is less valuable than a starting pitcher with a 4.00 ERA in 200 innings. (Really. We can go over it if you'd like.)
It's tough to quantify with other statistics just how significant it is that the Red Sox go from four months of Jason Varitek and two months of Victor Martinez to six months of Martinez. But because WAR is cumulative, we actually can add up four months of Varitek and two months of Martinez and add them together and compare them to six months of Martinez.
(This is, of course, all based on last season's numbers. But no one other than maybe Marco Scutaro seemed to have a career year and is due for a precipitous fall, and no one -- I'm looking at you, David Ortiz -- seems all that likely to have a huge bounce-back year that would skew the numbers dramatically.)
Catcher
2009, Varitek/Martinez: 2.4
(To do this, you have to take two-thirds of Varitek's 2009 WAR total and add it to one-third of Martinez's 2009 WAR total since he only played in Boston in August and September.)
2010, Martinez: 4.9
First base
Second base
Third base
All constants. If the Red Sox replace Mike Lowell with Adrian Beltre, that's an upgrade from 1.2 WAR to 2.4 WAR based mostly on the defense of the two respective players.
Shortstop
2009, Nick Green/Alex Gonzalez: 0.6
(The formula here is Green for four months plus Gonzalez for two months. This actually is even more generous than it appears because Julio Lugo managed a negative WAR in his tenure in Boston before he was designated for assignment.)
2010, Scutaro: 4.5
(Need another reminder why Scutaro is such an important pickup for the Red Sox? Even if he regresses to his numbers from two seasons ago, he's still at 2.7 and a two-win upgrade over the Green/Gonzalez duo of a year ago.)
Right field
Center field
Both constants.
Left field
2009, Jason Bay: 3.1
2010, Who knows?
Victor Martinez for an entire season in place of Victor Martinez for one-third of a season is a monster upgrade. Scutaro in place of Nick Green is another monster upgrade. That's the case -- and we can't emphasize this enough -- even if he regresses. Those two moves alone are worth at least five wins to the Red Sox.
If the Red Sox lose Bay, they'll need to make a move to replace him.
(It seems increasingly unlikely they'll lose Bay, by the way. The Angels have said they're out. The Mariners and their defense-first philosophy don't seem to be a fit. The Yankees always are lurking, but they've also made noise about keeping their payroll within reason. Who else is there? He ain't going back to Pittsburgh.)
If they do bring back Bay, there's no reason to go out and do something silly just because the Yankees made a trade for a center fielder.
They're wrong.
In fact, it's pretty easy to demonstrate why the Red Sox already are vastly improved over the team they fielded on Opening Day last season -- a deal for Jason Bay or an adequate replacement notwithstanding.
Hold onto your hats: We're going to do this using the Wins Above Replacement statistic. The statistic itself is more complex than the NFL's quarterback rating, but here's the basic gist: It calculates how many runs a player produces at the plate and how many runs a player prevents in the field. You then compare this number to the number of runs an average player at that particular position would have produced and prevented.
Every 10 extra runs produced or prevented, people who are smarter than me have figured out, tends to turn into one extra win -- hence Wins Above Replacement. Voila.
The beauty of WAR is that it's cumulative. A guy who hits .300 and play 100 games is less valuable than a guy who hits .300 and plays 120 games. A relief pitcher with a 2.00 ERA in 70 innings is less valuable than a starting pitcher with a 4.00 ERA in 200 innings. (Really. We can go over it if you'd like.)
It's tough to quantify with other statistics just how significant it is that the Red Sox go from four months of Jason Varitek and two months of Victor Martinez to six months of Martinez. But because WAR is cumulative, we actually can add up four months of Varitek and two months of Martinez and add them together and compare them to six months of Martinez.
(This is, of course, all based on last season's numbers. But no one other than maybe Marco Scutaro seemed to have a career year and is due for a precipitous fall, and no one -- I'm looking at you, David Ortiz -- seems all that likely to have a huge bounce-back year that would skew the numbers dramatically.)
Catcher
2009, Varitek/Martinez: 2.4
(To do this, you have to take two-thirds of Varitek's 2009 WAR total and add it to one-third of Martinez's 2009 WAR total since he only played in Boston in August and September.)
2010, Martinez: 4.9
First base
Second base
Third base
All constants. If the Red Sox replace Mike Lowell with Adrian Beltre, that's an upgrade from 1.2 WAR to 2.4 WAR based mostly on the defense of the two respective players.
Shortstop
2009, Nick Green/Alex Gonzalez: 0.6
(The formula here is Green for four months plus Gonzalez for two months. This actually is even more generous than it appears because Julio Lugo managed a negative WAR in his tenure in Boston before he was designated for assignment.)
2010, Scutaro: 4.5
(Need another reminder why Scutaro is such an important pickup for the Red Sox? Even if he regresses to his numbers from two seasons ago, he's still at 2.7 and a two-win upgrade over the Green/Gonzalez duo of a year ago.)
Right field
Center field
Both constants.
Left field
2009, Jason Bay: 3.1
2010, Who knows?
Victor Martinez for an entire season in place of Victor Martinez for one-third of a season is a monster upgrade. Scutaro in place of Nick Green is another monster upgrade. That's the case -- and we can't emphasize this enough -- even if he regresses. Those two moves alone are worth at least five wins to the Red Sox.
If the Red Sox lose Bay, they'll need to make a move to replace him.
(It seems increasingly unlikely they'll lose Bay, by the way. The Angels have said they're out. The Mariners and their defense-first philosophy don't seem to be a fit. The Yankees always are lurking, but they've also made noise about keeping their payroll within reason. Who else is there? He ain't going back to Pittsburgh.)
If they do bring back Bay, there's no reason to go out and do something silly just because the Yankees made a trade for a center fielder.
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Granderson not a significant upgrade for Yankees
Before Red Sox fans get all in a tizzy about the Yankees' acquisition of Curtis Granderson -- and, make no mistake, fans are in a tizzy -- let's take a step back and see what the trade actually does in terms of upgrading the Yankees at the plate and in the field next season.
(Here's a hint: It's not going to prompt the Red Sox to throw in the towel for next season.)
Granderson, in theory, will play center field for the Yankees next season and could hit either at the top of in the middle of the Yankees' lineup. He can hit home runs and steal bases, and he can play an above-average defensive center field. He'll displace Brett Gardner and Melky Cabrera in center field, and he'll probably displace the departed Hideki Matsui in the Yankees' lineup.
If Johnny Damon returns on a short-term contract to play left field, the Yankees likely would play Granderson in center field and Nick Swisher in right with Cabrera as the fourth outfielder -- and left fielder when Damon DH's.
Is that better than Damon-Cabrera-Swisher with Matsui DH'ing?
It might not be.
Let's look at it specifically in the context of Wins Above Replacement (WAR), a statistic that measures offensive and defensive impact to spit out a number that approximate how many wins a team would win with that player on its team rather than a typical Triple-A call-up.
Granderson had a WAR of 3.4 last season, a significant decline from his career-best WAR of 7.4 two seasons ago. His numbers have declined across the board -- with the exception of his home-run numbers -- in that span, and his numbers against lefties have been abysmal. A move to Yankee Stadium ought to help his power production, but there's no indication he's going to be a 7.0-plus type of player again anytime soon.
Matsui had a WAR of 2.4 last season even as a designated hitter thanks to his 28 home runs and .876 OPS in more than 500 plate appearances. It was the same number he posted two seasons ago.
Cabrera had a WAR of 1.6 last season as he matched a career high in OPS (.752) and set a career high in home runs (13).
Gardner had a WAR of 2.1 last season in large part because he had such a terrific defensive season in center field. The 26-year-old started 63 games in center field and made appearances in 36 more, putting up an Ultimate Zone Rating of 7.2 -- better, actually, than Granderson.
Adding Granderson is a plus-3.4 move in a vaccuum -- and maybe a little bit more if he can bounce back. But Matsui, Cabrera and Gardner combined for a WAR of 6.1 last season, and all three either will depart or see their roles dramatically reduced -- meaning the Yankees have to find a plus-3.0 player to make up the difference. If they do that -- and they've shown no interest thus far in Jason Bay or Matt Holliday, though that could change in a hurry -- they'll have upgraded their team significantly.
But if Cabrera is the left fielder and Damon is the designated hitter, well, the Yankees might actually have taken a small step backwards.
(Here's a hint: It's not going to prompt the Red Sox to throw in the towel for next season.)
Granderson, in theory, will play center field for the Yankees next season and could hit either at the top of in the middle of the Yankees' lineup. He can hit home runs and steal bases, and he can play an above-average defensive center field. He'll displace Brett Gardner and Melky Cabrera in center field, and he'll probably displace the departed Hideki Matsui in the Yankees' lineup.
If Johnny Damon returns on a short-term contract to play left field, the Yankees likely would play Granderson in center field and Nick Swisher in right with Cabrera as the fourth outfielder -- and left fielder when Damon DH's.
Is that better than Damon-Cabrera-Swisher with Matsui DH'ing?
It might not be.
Let's look at it specifically in the context of Wins Above Replacement (WAR), a statistic that measures offensive and defensive impact to spit out a number that approximate how many wins a team would win with that player on its team rather than a typical Triple-A call-up.
Granderson had a WAR of 3.4 last season, a significant decline from his career-best WAR of 7.4 two seasons ago. His numbers have declined across the board -- with the exception of his home-run numbers -- in that span, and his numbers against lefties have been abysmal. A move to Yankee Stadium ought to help his power production, but there's no indication he's going to be a 7.0-plus type of player again anytime soon.
Matsui had a WAR of 2.4 last season even as a designated hitter thanks to his 28 home runs and .876 OPS in more than 500 plate appearances. It was the same number he posted two seasons ago.
Cabrera had a WAR of 1.6 last season as he matched a career high in OPS (.752) and set a career high in home runs (13).
Gardner had a WAR of 2.1 last season in large part because he had such a terrific defensive season in center field. The 26-year-old started 63 games in center field and made appearances in 36 more, putting up an Ultimate Zone Rating of 7.2 -- better, actually, than Granderson.
Adding Granderson is a plus-3.4 move in a vaccuum -- and maybe a little bit more if he can bounce back. But Matsui, Cabrera and Gardner combined for a WAR of 6.1 last season, and all three either will depart or see their roles dramatically reduced -- meaning the Yankees have to find a plus-3.0 player to make up the difference. If they do that -- and they've shown no interest thus far in Jason Bay or Matt Holliday, though that could change in a hurry -- they'll have upgraded their team significantly.
But if Cabrera is the left fielder and Damon is the designated hitter, well, the Yankees might actually have taken a small step backwards.
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
Mayo not in a position to make plays
Bill Belichick hasn't always had the best defensive players.
Belichick has, however, always had a knack for putting his best defensive players in a position to make the most plays -- especially his linebackers. That's why it's so perplexing to see that Belichick hasn't put Jerod Mayo -- easily the Patriots' best linebacker and maybe the Patriots' best defensive player, period -- in a position to make plays.
The second-year linebacker finished with a team-best 12 tackles and half a sack on Sunday against Miami, but a re-examination of the game tape reveals very little in the way of the game-changing plays the Patriots need from their best defensive players.
Mayo is a run-stopping linebacker, first and foremost. He's not a pass-rusher off the edge like Tully Banta-Cain. His job is to read the gaps on either side of nose tackle Vince Wilfork and hit the running back before he can get through those gaps. The more a team runs the ball, the more chances he has to make plays.
But when a team throws the ball -- and Indianapolis, New Orleans and Miami have thrown the ball with tremendous effectiveness against the Patriots -- that leaves Mayo without a defined role. A coach like Belichick still ought to be able to put his best players in position to make an impact, but he hasn't done so thus far.
By one unofficial count, of the 53 times Chad Henne dropped back to pass, Mayo dropped into zone pass coverage 36 times. But when Mayo dropped into coverage, he normally did so in the middle of the field -- and that gave Henne freedom to throw to pick on the cornerbacks on either side. Think of it this way: Ever-improving safety Brandon Meriweather, to use a baseball term, played deep center field -- and Mayo played a shallow center field. Neither could do very much about anything Henne threw outside the hash marks on either side.
Even when Henne threw the ball inside the hash marks, Mayo didn't react in time to break up the passes. He took a step in the wrong direction on a 15-yard pass to Brian Hartline early in the second quarter, a key third-down pickup that eventually led to the Dolphins' first touchdown. Davone Bess caught a shot pass on a third-and-4 snap on the Dolphins' next drive and capitalized on a missed tackle by Mayo to run for 14 yards.
Dropping Mayo into zone coverage in the middle of the field, in effect, usually took the linebacker completely out of the play.
And in rushing on a half-dozen delayed blitzes, Mayo still found himself caught in no-man's land. On the fourth-and-6 snap that could have iced the game, an obvious passing situation, Mayo followed Henne as he rolled toward the sidelines but never made a serious effort to go after him. It was almost as if he was defending against a scramble -- something Henne has done only eight times all season. Henne had plenty of time to wait for Greg Camarillo to run his hitch route and come back to the ball -- in one-on-one coverage, of course -- for a 13-yard gain.
On a third-and-10 snap earlier in the fourth quarter, Mayo tore through his assigned gap on a delayed blitz only to see Henne throw the ball right through him -- inches from his outstretched hand -- for a 15-yard pass to Ted Ginn. Mayo had responsibility for that gap, and he failed to bat the ball down.
Mayo isn't exactly lacking in versatility. Belichick even lined him up at nose tackle -- he had his hand on the ground and everything -- on a third-and-4 snap early in the third quarter. He remains one of the game's elite run-stopping linebackers, too, as evidenced by his third-and-2 tackle of running back Lex Hilliard late in the third quarter.
But he's done his best work against the run -- and the more the Patriots' secondary struggles, the less other teams are going to run. Opponents are averaging 37.8 pass attempts in the Patriots' five losses but only 28.9 pass attempts in the Patriots' seven wins -- exactly the opposite of what you'd normally expect.
If other teams are going to keep throwing the ball against the Patriots, Belichick is going to have to find a way to turn Mayo into a playmaker when they do.
Belichick has, however, always had a knack for putting his best defensive players in a position to make the most plays -- especially his linebackers. That's why it's so perplexing to see that Belichick hasn't put Jerod Mayo -- easily the Patriots' best linebacker and maybe the Patriots' best defensive player, period -- in a position to make plays.
The second-year linebacker finished with a team-best 12 tackles and half a sack on Sunday against Miami, but a re-examination of the game tape reveals very little in the way of the game-changing plays the Patriots need from their best defensive players.
Mayo is a run-stopping linebacker, first and foremost. He's not a pass-rusher off the edge like Tully Banta-Cain. His job is to read the gaps on either side of nose tackle Vince Wilfork and hit the running back before he can get through those gaps. The more a team runs the ball, the more chances he has to make plays.
But when a team throws the ball -- and Indianapolis, New Orleans and Miami have thrown the ball with tremendous effectiveness against the Patriots -- that leaves Mayo without a defined role. A coach like Belichick still ought to be able to put his best players in position to make an impact, but he hasn't done so thus far.
By one unofficial count, of the 53 times Chad Henne dropped back to pass, Mayo dropped into zone pass coverage 36 times. But when Mayo dropped into coverage, he normally did so in the middle of the field -- and that gave Henne freedom to throw to pick on the cornerbacks on either side. Think of it this way: Ever-improving safety Brandon Meriweather, to use a baseball term, played deep center field -- and Mayo played a shallow center field. Neither could do very much about anything Henne threw outside the hash marks on either side.
Even when Henne threw the ball inside the hash marks, Mayo didn't react in time to break up the passes. He took a step in the wrong direction on a 15-yard pass to Brian Hartline early in the second quarter, a key third-down pickup that eventually led to the Dolphins' first touchdown. Davone Bess caught a shot pass on a third-and-4 snap on the Dolphins' next drive and capitalized on a missed tackle by Mayo to run for 14 yards.
Dropping Mayo into zone coverage in the middle of the field, in effect, usually took the linebacker completely out of the play.
And in rushing on a half-dozen delayed blitzes, Mayo still found himself caught in no-man's land. On the fourth-and-6 snap that could have iced the game, an obvious passing situation, Mayo followed Henne as he rolled toward the sidelines but never made a serious effort to go after him. It was almost as if he was defending against a scramble -- something Henne has done only eight times all season. Henne had plenty of time to wait for Greg Camarillo to run his hitch route and come back to the ball -- in one-on-one coverage, of course -- for a 13-yard gain.
On a third-and-10 snap earlier in the fourth quarter, Mayo tore through his assigned gap on a delayed blitz only to see Henne throw the ball right through him -- inches from his outstretched hand -- for a 15-yard pass to Ted Ginn. Mayo had responsibility for that gap, and he failed to bat the ball down.
Mayo isn't exactly lacking in versatility. Belichick even lined him up at nose tackle -- he had his hand on the ground and everything -- on a third-and-4 snap early in the third quarter. He remains one of the game's elite run-stopping linebackers, too, as evidenced by his third-and-2 tackle of running back Lex Hilliard late in the third quarter.
But he's done his best work against the run -- and the more the Patriots' secondary struggles, the less other teams are going to run. Opponents are averaging 37.8 pass attempts in the Patriots' five losses but only 28.9 pass attempts in the Patriots' seven wins -- exactly the opposite of what you'd normally expect.
If other teams are going to keep throwing the ball against the Patriots, Belichick is going to have to find a way to turn Mayo into a playmaker when they do.
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