Wednesday, April 1, 2009

OneIf's official predictions

One writer’s wild guesses about how things might shake out this season:

National League
East: Atlanta
Central: Chicago
West: Arizona
Wild Card: New York

Thanks to setup man-turned-closer J.J. Putz, who takes the job when Francisco Rodriguez's right arm falls off, the Mets finally do just enough to sneak into the playoffs. They still can't quite win the division, though; Atlanta's unbelieveable bad luck a year ago (11-30 in one-run games) reverses itself just enough for the Braves to win their first division title since they were winning them every year.

The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, get a big year from aces Brandon Webb and Dan Haren; that's enough to edge a Los Angeles team that's going to need to hold open tryouts for pitchers by midseason.

Oh, and the Cubs cruise.

American League
East: Boston
Central: Minnesota
West: Oakland
Wild Card: Tampa Bay

The Red Sox have plenty of question marks, but so too do their division rivals. The Yankees might be too old, and the Rays might be too young; few teams who make a leap like Joe Maddon's team did last year are able to sustain it a year later. The Blue Jays will have to trade Roy Halladay at the deadline and rebuild.

The Twins have the best young starting rotation in baseball, and that ought to be enough to outpace the White Sox and the resurgent Cleveland Indians. Francisco Liriano, right now, is the best-kept secret in baseball; that won't last long. Scott Baker ain't too shabby, either.

Oakland's offseason acquisitions return the Moneyballers to prominence; rather than trading Matt Holliday in July, Billy Beane builds around him to get his team to the playoffs for just the second time since 2003. The Angels, on the other hand, have lost just too much pitching.

Playoffs
National League
Chicago over New York; Arizona over Atlanta
Chicago over Arizona
(The entire city goes up in flames.)

American League
Boston over Oakland; Minnesota over Los Angeles
Minnesota over Boston

World Series
Minnesota over Chicago: Catcher Joe Mauer, who comes back from his back injury and rounds into form until sometime around Memorial Day, hits .450 in the six-game series to earn Most Valuable Player honors. Mostly, though, it's the pitching -- again, watch out for the Twins' young staff this season. That secret won't be kept under wraps very long.

Postseason Awards
MVP: Grady Sizemore (AL); Albert Pujols (NL)
Cy Young: Francisco Liriano (AL); Johan Santana (NL)
Rookie of the Year: Matt Wieters (AL); Cameron Maybin (NL)

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