How the Red Sox can beat James Shields

Like Josh Beckett, Tampa Bay starter James Shields has pitched better in April than in any other month of his career. In 11 starts in March or April, "Early Season Game" James has a 2.88 ERA and has seen opponents hit .220 off him.

A year ago, he was utterly masterful in five of his first six starts before May 1 -- including a two-hit shutout of the Red Sox on April 27. Even before that, though, his ERA was just 2.70; h'd thrown six shutout innings against Baltimore at home and pitched seven strong innings against the Orioles at Camden Yards (on Opening Day) as well as at home against Toronto later in the month.

The Red Sox, though, have experience beating him. A week after Shields tossed that complete-game shutout at Tropicana Field, the Red Sox jumped all over him in the first inning and cruised to a 12-4 victory.

What was the difference between the two games?

Command on the mound and patience at the plate.

In Shields' first outing against the Red Sox, leadoff hitter Jacoby Ellsbury got into a quick 0-2 hole and eventually struck out looking. In the second inning, Shields got two strikes on all three batters he faced and retired all three on a pop-up and two slow groundouts.

The Red Sox made an adjustment in the fourth inning; Ellsbury and J.D. Drew each went after the first pitch, and Dustin Pedroia took a strike and a ball before hitting a fly ball to right field. They couldn't wait to get themselves into a hole -- and that meant they started swinging at pitches at which they didn't want to swing.

"By throwing them strikes, it would make them swing early, which is what they don't want to do," Rays manager Joe Maddon said after the game. "They want to work the count. So you've got to be aggressive early, and that's a big part of his game, getting ahead with his fastball and working the cutter and change off of that. He did a great job with that. I can't say enough. That was outstanding."

A week later, though, the Red Sox pounced. Part of the reason was a command that was less sharp; part of the reason was that the Red Sox weren't waiting around and letting themselves get backed into a corner at the plate.

"It's not the easiest thing to face a team back-to-back," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said after the game. "Sometimes their stuff's not the same, their command's not the same. There are different reasons."

Shields had gotten a two-strike count on five of the first six hitters he'd faced on April 27. On May 3, he didn't get a two-strike count on anyone until a run already was across the plate. He then had to face Manny Ramirez and did well to keep the ball down, but Ramirez's ground ball got back up the middle to score two more runs.

He ran into trouble again in the second. He went to a 3-1 count on Ellsbury before walking him, and after a wild pitch put Ellsbury on second, he left a cutter too far up and Pedroia stroked a line drive to right field to give the Red Sox their fourth run of the game.

It brings us to a little bit of an obvious conclusion: When Shields pitched with command, he threw strikes and got ahead in the count and forced the Red Sox to protect the zone. When he didn't pitch with command, he gave the Red Sox a chance to be selective.

That'll be interesting to watch from the first batter in the bottom of the first inning. Ellsbury said this spring that he needs to be ready to pounce on pitches in the strike zone and not just let pitchers get ahead in the count. A year ago, the center fielder hit just .180 with two strikes -- including .175 with the count full, which means the count never really ended up in his favor no matter how selective he was.

On the other hand, he hit .347 when swinging at the first pitch, .341 when swinging at a 1-0 pitch and .375 when swinging at a 2-0 pitch.

That's a microcosm of what the Red Sox must do against Shields. The Rays' ace is going to want to get ahead in the count in the first couple of innings and use that to his advantage for the rest of the game; the Red Sox are going to have to be aggressive early and patient late to get some runs on the board and get him out of the game early.