Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon found himself swarmed by tape recorders and video cameras in the Red Sox locker room on Sunday afternoon, swarmed by reporters all looking for follow-up to the comments he made to WEEI.com on Saturday about the team's possible acquisition of Billy Wagner.
Papelbon, as could be expected, wasn't exactly effusive in his excitement about a potential trade for another potential closer. He expressed skepticism then -- "It's kind of like the (Eric) Gagne thing, I guess," he said -- and didn't really back down a day later.
"The biggest thing that you look at when you're trying to acquire somebody is the fact that when you acquire somebody, you have to get rid of somebody," Papelbon said. "Somebody has to go. What I said yesterday was that I like the way our bullpen sets up right now. That's the tough situation you put your bullpen in."
He then was asked if he thought a trade for Wagner might be disruptive this late in the season for a bullpen that's remained mostly intact for the entire season.
"We have a good dynamic down there in the bullpen," he said. "We have guys who know how to work well together. Is Billy Wagner a great pitcher? Would he bring more depth to our bullpen and make our bullpen better? There's no question about it. But you have to also think about what we have now and what we've been able to accomplish to this point in the season and how good we've pitched."
He's entitled to his opinion. He's certainly entitled to his loyalty to the guys with whom he spends as much time as he does with his wife. But that doesn't mean he's right.
A couple of rebuttals:
1. Relievers don't "work well together."
A pitcher is on an island. He warms up and comes into the game and goes and takes a shower. This isn't like a quarterback working well with wide receivers or a point guard working well with centers or power forwards. What Manny Delcarmen does -- except for the matter of inherited runners -- has nothing to do with what Ramon Ramirez does. A good joke told in the bullpen in the third inning doesn't make Hideki Okajima's curveball any sharper in the eighth.
2. Red Sox relievers don't have set roles. Part of the beauty of the Red Sox bullpen, in fact, has been its flexibility in the late innings.
Papelbon has been the closer all along, but no one else has staked a claim to any particular role. Okajima is the closest thing Terry Francona has to an eighth-inning guy with 36 appearances in the eighth inning, but Ramirez has 28. Daniel Bard has 15 eighth-inning appearances, and he wasn't called up until mid-May.
Wagner wouldn't affect bullpen roles because the Red Sox don't have bullpen roles. Francona and John Farrell regulate rest and workload pretty thoroughly, and if Okajima pitches the eighth inning one night, Wagner could pitch the eighth inning the next night. There are plenty of innings to go around.
3. Someone can go. Someone can always go.
Maybe Papelbon hasn't noticed, but the last spot in the Red Sox bullpen has been something of a revolving door this season. Among the names: Javier Lopez, Hunter Jones, Michael Bowden, Enrique Gonzalez, Marcus McBeth, Billy Traber, Fernando Cabrera, Michael Bowden again, and Enrique Gonzalez again.
If you don't think Billy Wagner is an upgrade on those names, you're crazy -- which brings us to...
4. Billy Wagner has a track record as a lights-out reliever.
Papelbon did acknowledge that Wagner is a great pitcher. But his ambivalence to the deal shows that he might have forgotten what type of pitcher Wagner was back when he was healthy. Here's the stat worth highlighting: Since 1996, Wagner has finished a season with an ERA of 3.00 or better once -- just once. He might be an injury risk at 37 years old, but he had a 2.30 ERA in 47 innings pitched last season at the age of 36.
He still, of course, might flop. But after the Red Sox traded for Gagne two years ago, they finished the season celebrating a World Series championship at Coors Field in Denver.
The Red Sox bullpen also has put up the following month-by-month ERAs:
April: 2.88
May: 3.04
June: 3.82
July: 2.99
August: 5.86
If the price is right, what is there to lose?
Sunday, August 23, 2009
Saturday, August 22, 2009
Pitching rotation: From Point A to Point B
Tim Wakefield will start Wednesday for the Red Sox in place of Brad Penny, the veteran who might have seen his Red Sox career come to an inglorious end in similar fashion to John Smoltz two weeks ago.
Smoltz was rocked by the Yankees at Yankee Stadium, and Penny was rocked by the Yankees at Fenway Park to the tune of eight runs in four innings. Red Sox manager Terry Francona didn't come with the "At least he was throwing strikes" optimism he's brought to previous post-Penny press conferences, and he told reporters this afternoon that Penny had lost his spot in the Red Sox rotation.
"I told him he's got to kind of hang tight a little bit and get through today, and then we'll go from there," Francona said.
Odds are long that Penny will make another start for the Red Sox this season. It would be easy enough to "skip" Penny in the rotation this week, optioning Enrique Gonzalez to Triple-A Pawtucket to make room for Wakefield and filling out the bullpen with extra arms when rosters expand five days later.
The return of Wakefield and the marginalization of Penny means just more upheaval in a Red Sox pitching staff many believed to be the deepest in baseball coming out of spring training. Francona and Theo Epstein developed contingency plan after contingency plan -- and they've had to put almost all of them to use.
It's amazing, really, how the Red Sox depth chart, to borrow a phrase from football, has evolved from its Opening Day incarnation to the way it looks right now:
Late March
1. Josh Beckett
2. Jon Lester
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka
4. Tim Wakefield
5. Brad Penny
6. Justin Masterson (in the bullpen)
7. John Smoltz (rehabbing)
8. Clay Buchholz (in the minors)
9. Michael Bowden (in the minors)
10. Junichi Tazawa (in the minors)
Late August
1. Beckett (3.38 ERA)
2. Lester (3.58 ERA)
Not much has changed at the top of the rotation. Beckett and Lester each have double-digit wins and a couple of complete games to go along with a strikeout-to-walk ratio right around 3.5. Only nine pitchers in the American League have a strikeout-to-walk ratio of better than 3.0, and two of them are atop the Red Sox rotation.
(Roy Halladay, by the way, has 151 strikeouts and 23 walks -- a ratio of 6.57. Amazing.)
3. Buchholz (3.99 ERA)
One thing Buchholz does better than anyone on the Red Sox pitching staff is induce the ground ball. As a team, the Red Sox have a ground ball/fly ball ratio of 0.73; that is, they allow four fly balls for every three ground balls they induce. Both Beckett and Lester do better than most -- they have GB/FB ratios of 0.90 and 0.96, respectively -- but they both still allow more fly balls than ground balls.
Not Buchholz. The 25-year-old righty has a 1.30 GB/FB ratio in his seven starts this seasno, and he's getting outs via the ground ball at a rate of better than 2-to-1. (Double plays, of course, inflate that rate. Still, though, even ground-ball specialist Justin Masterson only had a rate of ground outs to air outs of 1.59.)
If the season ended today, Buchholz almost certainly would start Game 3 of the Red Sox's first-round playoff series.
4. Wakefield (4.31 ERA)
The All-Star knuckleballer surrendered just two hits and one run in 5 2/3 solid innings for Triple-A Pawtucket on Friday and reassured the Red Sox that he could field his position well enough to pitch in the major-league rotation. He had an ERA of 4.31 in 17 starts before he landed on the disabled list with a back injury and, later, with pain related to a sciatic problem in his calf.
"He can cover his position and he's a really good pitcher," Francona told reporters on Saturday, "so I think we're OK."
He gets the edge over the team's No. 5 starter because he, if healthy, almost certainly would pitch Game 4 of any first-round playoff series. His knuckleball might always be a wild card, but he's far more difficult to bring out of the bullpen because of it.
5. Tazawa (3.57 ERA)
The 23-year-old rookie erased the memory of Penny's disastrous start by tossing six shutout innings and, perhaps even more impressively, outpitching A.J. Burnett, the Yankees' No. 2 starter. Tazawa now has a 3.57 ERA in his four appearances in the major leagues and appears to be getting more and more comfortable with his role.
Barring injury, it appears he'll be the fifth starter in the Red Sox rotation the rest of the way.
One thing he did particularly well was attack the strike zone -- especially against the Yankees' lefties. Tazawa pitched mostly away from the lefties in the Detroit lineup in his first start two weeks ago, conceding the Green Monster in order not to give up solid contact on the inside half of the plate. That's a mark of a rookie pitcher, a pitcher who doesn't quite believe that his stuff is good enough on its own.
Against the Yankees, though, he pitched inside to lefties with both his fastball and his curveball, and he got results. Check out the two graphs. First is his strike-zone chart -- as viewed from behind the plate -- against Detroit on Aug. 11...
Smoltz was rocked by the Yankees at Yankee Stadium, and Penny was rocked by the Yankees at Fenway Park to the tune of eight runs in four innings. Red Sox manager Terry Francona didn't come with the "At least he was throwing strikes" optimism he's brought to previous post-Penny press conferences, and he told reporters this afternoon that Penny had lost his spot in the Red Sox rotation.
"I told him he's got to kind of hang tight a little bit and get through today, and then we'll go from there," Francona said.
Odds are long that Penny will make another start for the Red Sox this season. It would be easy enough to "skip" Penny in the rotation this week, optioning Enrique Gonzalez to Triple-A Pawtucket to make room for Wakefield and filling out the bullpen with extra arms when rosters expand five days later.
The return of Wakefield and the marginalization of Penny means just more upheaval in a Red Sox pitching staff many believed to be the deepest in baseball coming out of spring training. Francona and Theo Epstein developed contingency plan after contingency plan -- and they've had to put almost all of them to use.
It's amazing, really, how the Red Sox depth chart, to borrow a phrase from football, has evolved from its Opening Day incarnation to the way it looks right now:
Late March
1. Josh Beckett
2. Jon Lester
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka
4. Tim Wakefield
5. Brad Penny
6. Justin Masterson (in the bullpen)
7. John Smoltz (rehabbing)
8. Clay Buchholz (in the minors)
9. Michael Bowden (in the minors)
10. Junichi Tazawa (in the minors)
Late August
1. Beckett (3.38 ERA)
2. Lester (3.58 ERA)
Not much has changed at the top of the rotation. Beckett and Lester each have double-digit wins and a couple of complete games to go along with a strikeout-to-walk ratio right around 3.5. Only nine pitchers in the American League have a strikeout-to-walk ratio of better than 3.0, and two of them are atop the Red Sox rotation.
(Roy Halladay, by the way, has 151 strikeouts and 23 walks -- a ratio of 6.57. Amazing.)
3. Buchholz (3.99 ERA)
One thing Buchholz does better than anyone on the Red Sox pitching staff is induce the ground ball. As a team, the Red Sox have a ground ball/fly ball ratio of 0.73; that is, they allow four fly balls for every three ground balls they induce. Both Beckett and Lester do better than most -- they have GB/FB ratios of 0.90 and 0.96, respectively -- but they both still allow more fly balls than ground balls.
Not Buchholz. The 25-year-old righty has a 1.30 GB/FB ratio in his seven starts this seasno, and he's getting outs via the ground ball at a rate of better than 2-to-1. (Double plays, of course, inflate that rate. Still, though, even ground-ball specialist Justin Masterson only had a rate of ground outs to air outs of 1.59.)
If the season ended today, Buchholz almost certainly would start Game 3 of the Red Sox's first-round playoff series.
4. Wakefield (4.31 ERA)
The All-Star knuckleballer surrendered just two hits and one run in 5 2/3 solid innings for Triple-A Pawtucket on Friday and reassured the Red Sox that he could field his position well enough to pitch in the major-league rotation. He had an ERA of 4.31 in 17 starts before he landed on the disabled list with a back injury and, later, with pain related to a sciatic problem in his calf.
"He can cover his position and he's a really good pitcher," Francona told reporters on Saturday, "so I think we're OK."
He gets the edge over the team's No. 5 starter because he, if healthy, almost certainly would pitch Game 4 of any first-round playoff series. His knuckleball might always be a wild card, but he's far more difficult to bring out of the bullpen because of it.
5. Tazawa (3.57 ERA)
The 23-year-old rookie erased the memory of Penny's disastrous start by tossing six shutout innings and, perhaps even more impressively, outpitching A.J. Burnett, the Yankees' No. 2 starter. Tazawa now has a 3.57 ERA in his four appearances in the major leagues and appears to be getting more and more comfortable with his role.
Barring injury, it appears he'll be the fifth starter in the Red Sox rotation the rest of the way.
One thing he did particularly well was attack the strike zone -- especially against the Yankees' lefties. Tazawa pitched mostly away from the lefties in the Detroit lineup in his first start two weeks ago, conceding the Green Monster in order not to give up solid contact on the inside half of the plate. That's a mark of a rookie pitcher, a pitcher who doesn't quite believe that his stuff is good enough on its own.
Against the Yankees, though, he pitched inside to lefties with both his fastball and his curveball, and he got results. Check out the two graphs. First is his strike-zone chart -- as viewed from behind the plate -- against Detroit on Aug. 11...
... followed by his strike-zone chart against the Yankees on Saturday:
He also disguised his curveball far better in terms of release point, not giving away his pitch simply with the location of his hand when he let go of the ball. (The idea is for each pitch to come out of the hand in the same spot, so if the purple data points are distinguishable from the other data points, that's a problem.)
The first chart, again, is that start against Detroit...
... and the second is Saturday against New York.
Tazawa has all the goods to be a terrific major-league pitcher. He's not exactly the ground-ball specialist Buchholz is -- he recorded 11 fly-ball outs on Saturday and just four ground-ball outs -- but he's making a case right now to be part of the Red Sox rotation from the get-go next season.
6. Matsuzaka (rehabbing)
The pitcher who finished third in Cy Young voting is expected to make a rehab start in the Gulf Coast League on Monday and begin to climb the minor-league ladder from there. He might be a maddening pitcher at times, but he did throw seven shutout innings in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series a year ago and was viewed as the team's clear-cut No. 3 starter before the season.
If Matsuzaka returns in time to show off his progress before the season ends, he might again be that No. 3 starter in the team's postseason rotation.
7. Paul Byrd (in the minors)
Desperate times call for desperate measures, and the struggles of Penny and Smoltz prompted the Red Sox to sign Byrd to a contract in hopes he could round himself into form in time for the stretch run. The veteran threw 74 pitches in four innings for the PawSox on Wednesday, surrendering three runs on six hits, and he'll likely pitch twice more in Pawtucket before rosters expand on Sept. 1.
8. Bowden (in the minors)
Don't make too much of Bowden's disastrous two innings against the Yankees. For one thing, he's been a starting pitcher all season and not only did he have to pitch in relief on Friday, he had to do so (a) after having warmed up once already only to sit back down; (b) with runners on first and third and no outs; and (c) against a lineup already feeling good about itself, as Francona would say.
If Wakefield gets hurt again and neither Matsuzaka nor Byrd pan out, Bowden likely would become the team's fifth starter in September.
9. Brad Penny (in limbo)
Here's the chart from Friday that tells the story:
Penny threw his fastball with good velocity (95 miles an hour) and even offset it with changeups, sliders and curveballs. But everything he threw was right down the middle of the plate. You can't win pitching like that.
Penny indicated earlier this season he has no desire to pitch out of the bullpen. He might not, however, have any say in the matter. His repertoire actually makes him a better fit as a reliever than as a starter, and he'd have a vested interest in performing well in mop-up duty as he heads back out on the open market this winter. (You can bet the Mets will be watching.)
With rosters due to expand a week from Tuesday, the Red Sox appear to have no reason to release Penny outright. If they can stash him away for seven or eight days, they can use him in mop-up duty out of the bullpen. If something goes terribly wrong in mid-September -- such as half the starting rotation catching swine flu -- he can make a spot start. Otherwise, though, he's all finished pitching meaningful innings in Boston.
N/A. Smoltz (DFA'ed) and Masterson (traded to Cleveland)
Both are gone. Neither is coming back.
Masterson, though, earned his first win as a member of the Cleveland Indians on Thursday night, tossing 6 1/3 strong innings to beat the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. He now has a 3.78 ERA since the Red Sox traded him to the Indians as part of the Victor Martinez deal on July 24.
But you have to give something to get something, right?
Friday, August 21, 2009
Red Sox could lose Fernando Cabrera
It appeared, at first, that the Red Sox had called up Marcus McBeth and Billy Traber ahead of Fernando Cabrera because they needed an expendable pitcher or two to eat some innings while they juggled their bullpen. The reason to wait on calling up Pawtucket closer Fernando Cabrera, it seemed, was so that he'd be the last one up and thus the pitcher who wouldn't have to be designated for assignment.
Both McBeth and Traber have cleared waivers and have returned to Pawtucket. It's no lock the Red Sox will be so fortunate with Cabrera.
The righthander from Puerto Rico has a 1.69 ERA in 48 innings pitched with Triple-A Pawtucket. Opponents hit .152 off him in April, .150 off him in May and .184 off him in June. He then scuffled in July, his walk ratio skyrocketing, before regaining his stuff in August and holding opponents to a .167 batting average before his call-up.
But this isn't the first time Cabrera has dominated at a minor-league level. He had a 2.97 ERA in 109 innings with Double-A Akron in 2003 and a 1.23 ERA with Triple-A Buffalo in 2005. It was then that he earned his first extended duty in the major leagues -- and he had a 1.47 ERA in 30 2/3 innings for the Cleveland Indians. He fell upon hard times in 2006, though, recording a 5.19 ERA in 60 2/3 major-league innings, and since has bounced from Cleveland to Baltimore to Boston.
He had a 4.50 ERA in four innings with the Red Sox this month. (He allowed two earned runs against Texas on Saturday but otherwise pitched three scoreless innings.)
Will it come back to bite the Red Sox if they release him? It's exceptionally dangerous to look at one-game samples, but let's take a look at his most successful major-league outing last year and his most successful major-league outing this year:
(The horizontal-vertical charts tend to measure how consistently a pitcher throws his pitches. A slider should move pretty much the same way every time a pitcher throws it; if it doesn't, he's not going to be able to make it hit the spot he wants to hit.)
Aug. 20, 2008 (with Baltimore)
3 IP, 3 H, 3 K: 46 pitches
Aug. 13, 2009 (with Boston)
1 IP, 3 K: 15 pitches
Cabrera -- and, again, this is based on a small sample size -- didn't throw his slider or his fastball with the same consistency last week as he did a year ago at this time. He also, in the selected outing from a year ago, kept the ball in the strike zone or down, a nice combination for a fastball-slider pitcher:
He didn't get a chance to show much in his short stint with the Red Sox. It could be an indication that his command was lacking -- but it also could be a small-sample-size blip.
If he clears waivers, he still seems like the type of pitcher the Red Sox would love to see against in September.
Both McBeth and Traber have cleared waivers and have returned to Pawtucket. It's no lock the Red Sox will be so fortunate with Cabrera.
The righthander from Puerto Rico has a 1.69 ERA in 48 innings pitched with Triple-A Pawtucket. Opponents hit .152 off him in April, .150 off him in May and .184 off him in June. He then scuffled in July, his walk ratio skyrocketing, before regaining his stuff in August and holding opponents to a .167 batting average before his call-up.
But this isn't the first time Cabrera has dominated at a minor-league level. He had a 2.97 ERA in 109 innings with Double-A Akron in 2003 and a 1.23 ERA with Triple-A Buffalo in 2005. It was then that he earned his first extended duty in the major leagues -- and he had a 1.47 ERA in 30 2/3 innings for the Cleveland Indians. He fell upon hard times in 2006, though, recording a 5.19 ERA in 60 2/3 major-league innings, and since has bounced from Cleveland to Baltimore to Boston.
He had a 4.50 ERA in four innings with the Red Sox this month. (He allowed two earned runs against Texas on Saturday but otherwise pitched three scoreless innings.)
Will it come back to bite the Red Sox if they release him? It's exceptionally dangerous to look at one-game samples, but let's take a look at his most successful major-league outing last year and his most successful major-league outing this year:
(The horizontal-vertical charts tend to measure how consistently a pitcher throws his pitches. A slider should move pretty much the same way every time a pitcher throws it; if it doesn't, he's not going to be able to make it hit the spot he wants to hit.)
Aug. 20, 2008 (with Baltimore)
3 IP, 3 H, 3 K: 46 pitches
Aug. 13, 2009 (with Boston)
1 IP, 3 K: 15 pitches
Cabrera -- and, again, this is based on a small sample size -- didn't throw his slider or his fastball with the same consistency last week as he did a year ago at this time. He also, in the selected outing from a year ago, kept the ball in the strike zone or down, a nice combination for a fastball-slider pitcher:
He didn't get a chance to show much in his short stint with the Red Sox. It could be an indication that his command was lacking -- but it also could be a small-sample-size blip.
If he clears waivers, he still seems like the type of pitcher the Red Sox would love to see against in September.
Bowden finally gets his turn
You can tell how comfortable Michael Bowden is with The Show just by looking at his haircut.
The hard-throwing righty received word late Thursday night that he would be making his third trip to the major leagues. He made a spot start a year ago and a spot relief appearance, pitching two innings against the Yankees, back in April. It's getting to be part of the routine.
Bowden, then, didn't exactly freak out when he got word from Pawtucket manager Ron Johnson that the Red Sox were in need of his services. He was shaving his head in the McCoy Stadium locker room on Thursday when he got a tap on his shoulder, and he barely turned around.
"I was shaving my head in the Pawtucket locker room, and RJ came in and said, 'When you're done shaving your head, come into my office so I can tell you about going to the big leagues,'" Bowden said from his locker stall at Fenway Park on Friday. "I took my time and still showered and everything, taking my time, acting like it wasn't a big deal."
But it was a big deal.
Not only does Bowden have a chance to spend more than one day in the major leagues for the first time -- he was optioned immediately back to Pawtucket after each of his first two appearances -- he finally could stop wondering when his turn was going to come.
He also had to watch while several fellow PawSox pitchers received the call before he did: Junichi Tazawa, Clay Buchholz, Fernando Cabrera, Marcus McBeth and Billy Traber all have been called up from Triple-A since mid-July to plug various holes in the Red Sox pitching staff. The spot in the starting rotation Tazawa filled easily could have been filled by Bowden instead.
"I thought there were a couple of opportunities in there where I thought I might have been able to get the opportunity," he said, betraying about as much as he was going to betray. "But I know they have a different agenda. They needed something else. I was just waiting for my opportunity. I was hoping it was going to come sooner rather than later, and fortunately, it did. I'm happy to be here and happy to be in this role."
The extra time at Triple-A gave Bowden a chance to bounce back from a rough stretch in the middle of the season and find his groove once again. He now has a 3.20 ERA in 22 starts and has allowed two runs or fewer in six of his last seven outings. Since a planned skipped start in July that allowed him to revist some mechanical issues, he has a 2.91 ERA and more than twice as many strikeouts (28) as walks (12).
Whatever the Red Sox were waiting to see when they passed over him in favor of Tazawa, they've seen it. He has allowed just two earned runs in 12 innings pitched -- a 1.50 ERA -- since that decision was made.
All he can do now is show off the stuff he's shown off since the beginning of the season. He'll do so in a long-relief role behind Brad Penny on Friday and Tazawa on Saturday. The odds of both pitchers going seven strong innings are pretty slim, and that means Bowden could have a chance to throw some bullpen-saving innings in some big spots.
"We're trying not to protect our bullpen but to enhance it," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said. "If there's a game where we don't get length -- and I hope that doesn't happen -- Michael will be in the bullpen. ... We've tried every year to have young players, pitchers, incorporated into our season when we feel like they're ready to do that. He's proved he's more than ready."
Francona even hinted that a start might be in the offing somewhere down the road for Bowden.
"He gives us some protection in the bullpen, and, going forward, he does give us some flexibility about what we want to do," Francona said. "But for the time being, he's in the bullpen, and we'll go from there."
And as much as Bowden tried to hide his excitement at McCoy Stadium on Thursday, there was no hiding it at Fenway Park on Friday.
"It could be 20 years, and I'd be excited to be here," he said.
(Update: Bowden surrendered seven runs, all earned, in two innings of work in relief of Brad Penny. The Red Sox, who had to burn three more relievers in the late innings of their 20-11 defeat, optioned the righty back to Pawtucket after the game.)
The hard-throwing righty received word late Thursday night that he would be making his third trip to the major leagues. He made a spot start a year ago and a spot relief appearance, pitching two innings against the Yankees, back in April. It's getting to be part of the routine.
Bowden, then, didn't exactly freak out when he got word from Pawtucket manager Ron Johnson that the Red Sox were in need of his services. He was shaving his head in the McCoy Stadium locker room on Thursday when he got a tap on his shoulder, and he barely turned around.
"I was shaving my head in the Pawtucket locker room, and RJ came in and said, 'When you're done shaving your head, come into my office so I can tell you about going to the big leagues,'" Bowden said from his locker stall at Fenway Park on Friday. "I took my time and still showered and everything, taking my time, acting like it wasn't a big deal."
But it was a big deal.
Not only does Bowden have a chance to spend more than one day in the major leagues for the first time -- he was optioned immediately back to Pawtucket after each of his first two appearances -- he finally could stop wondering when his turn was going to come.
He also had to watch while several fellow PawSox pitchers received the call before he did: Junichi Tazawa, Clay Buchholz, Fernando Cabrera, Marcus McBeth and Billy Traber all have been called up from Triple-A since mid-July to plug various holes in the Red Sox pitching staff. The spot in the starting rotation Tazawa filled easily could have been filled by Bowden instead.
"I thought there were a couple of opportunities in there where I thought I might have been able to get the opportunity," he said, betraying about as much as he was going to betray. "But I know they have a different agenda. They needed something else. I was just waiting for my opportunity. I was hoping it was going to come sooner rather than later, and fortunately, it did. I'm happy to be here and happy to be in this role."
The extra time at Triple-A gave Bowden a chance to bounce back from a rough stretch in the middle of the season and find his groove once again. He now has a 3.20 ERA in 22 starts and has allowed two runs or fewer in six of his last seven outings. Since a planned skipped start in July that allowed him to revist some mechanical issues, he has a 2.91 ERA and more than twice as many strikeouts (28) as walks (12).
Whatever the Red Sox were waiting to see when they passed over him in favor of Tazawa, they've seen it. He has allowed just two earned runs in 12 innings pitched -- a 1.50 ERA -- since that decision was made.
All he can do now is show off the stuff he's shown off since the beginning of the season. He'll do so in a long-relief role behind Brad Penny on Friday and Tazawa on Saturday. The odds of both pitchers going seven strong innings are pretty slim, and that means Bowden could have a chance to throw some bullpen-saving innings in some big spots.
"We're trying not to protect our bullpen but to enhance it," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said. "If there's a game where we don't get length -- and I hope that doesn't happen -- Michael will be in the bullpen. ... We've tried every year to have young players, pitchers, incorporated into our season when we feel like they're ready to do that. He's proved he's more than ready."
Francona even hinted that a start might be in the offing somewhere down the road for Bowden.
"He gives us some protection in the bullpen, and, going forward, he does give us some flexibility about what we want to do," Francona said. "But for the time being, he's in the bullpen, and we'll go from there."
And as much as Bowden tried to hide his excitement at McCoy Stadium on Thursday, there was no hiding it at Fenway Park on Friday.
"It could be 20 years, and I'd be excited to be here," he said.
(Update: Bowden surrendered seven runs, all earned, in two innings of work in relief of Brad Penny. The Red Sox, who had to burn three more relievers in the late innings of their 20-11 defeat, optioned the righty back to Pawtucket after the game.)
Pats' defensive alignment varies by the play
For all the discussion about the Patriots' new 4-3 defense and old 3-4 defense and which is going to win over which, consider this: Derrick Burgess can turn a 3-4 defense into a 4-3 defense simply by putting his hand on the ground.
The Patriots played mostly a 4-3 defensive front in their first preseason game but turned a couple of pages in the defensive playbook against the Bengals on Thursday. A four-man front turned into a three-man front and back again, often from play to play. Vince Wilfork might have been the only first-team defensive player to line up at the same position every time he took the field -- Richard Seymour, Jarvis Green and Ty Warren all alternated between defensive tackle and defensive end, and not all of the three played exclusively in a three-point stance.
Burgess and rookie defensive tackle Myron Pryor alterated in and out almost every play of the Bengals' final drive of the first quarter, and they don't exactly tend to attack the same gap.
On a first-and-20 snap during the Bengals' first drive, Burgess and Tully Banta-Cain lined up wide as defensive ends and linebacker Adalius Thomas actually lined up behind the defensive tackle in something of an inside linebacker position.
The Patriots began one drive with a Green-Wilfork-Pryor-Warren front four and evolved into a Burgess-Warren-Wilfork-Banta-Cain front four within a couple of plays.
"We threw a lot of different looks at them," Seymour said. "We started off in the 3-4 defense and then moved to the 4-3 defense. ... We have the ability and the versatility up front to change not only game to game, but also series to series and I think that’s going to be an asset for us."
It's going to be fascinating to watch how that develops in the team's final two preseason games. Wilfork will play almost exclusively nose tackle, and Jerod Mayo will play almost exclusively middle linebacker. Beyond that, though, there's no way to predict who will line up where on any given play.
The Patriots played mostly a 4-3 defensive front in their first preseason game but turned a couple of pages in the defensive playbook against the Bengals on Thursday. A four-man front turned into a three-man front and back again, often from play to play. Vince Wilfork might have been the only first-team defensive player to line up at the same position every time he took the field -- Richard Seymour, Jarvis Green and Ty Warren all alternated between defensive tackle and defensive end, and not all of the three played exclusively in a three-point stance.
Burgess and rookie defensive tackle Myron Pryor alterated in and out almost every play of the Bengals' final drive of the first quarter, and they don't exactly tend to attack the same gap.
On a first-and-20 snap during the Bengals' first drive, Burgess and Tully Banta-Cain lined up wide as defensive ends and linebacker Adalius Thomas actually lined up behind the defensive tackle in something of an inside linebacker position.
The Patriots began one drive with a Green-Wilfork-Pryor-Warren front four and evolved into a Burgess-Warren-Wilfork-Banta-Cain front four within a couple of plays.
"We threw a lot of different looks at them," Seymour said. "We started off in the 3-4 defense and then moved to the 4-3 defense. ... We have the ability and the versatility up front to change not only game to game, but also series to series and I think that’s going to be an asset for us."
It's going to be fascinating to watch how that develops in the team's final two preseason games. Wilfork will play almost exclusively nose tackle, and Jerod Mayo will play almost exclusively middle linebacker. Beyond that, though, there's no way to predict who will line up where on any given play.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Kevin Youkilis might have an MVP case
First things first: If the season ended today, Joe Mauer is the American League's Most Valuable Player. When you lead the league in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage and play a premium defensive position, there's no argument. You're the MVP.
But should Mauer stumble, Mark Teixeira isn't the only other candidate -- no matter what the heavyweight media boxing match would have you believe.
One candidate, in fact, plies his trade at Fenway Park.
Check out the American League OPS standings:
1. Mauer, 1.101
2. Kevin Youkilis, .987
3. Miguel Cabrera, .952
4. Justin Morneau, .941
5. Mark Teixeira, .934
Youkilis doesn't have some of the traditional numbers -- most notably, his 66 RBI ranked him 27th in the American League. But only Mauer has gotten on base at a better clip than Youkilis this season, and only Mauer and Los Angeles' Kendry Morales are averaging more total bases per at-bat -- which is what slugging percentage measures -- than Youkilis.
Oh, and Youkilis affords his team a flexibility unlike almost any other player in the American League. Only Oakland's Bobby Crosby has played more than 30 games at first base and third base this season, and Crosby's .223 batting average detracts from his value at those two positions just a little bit.
Youkilis also happens to play both positions awfully well. His Fielding Bible plus-minus at first base this season is plus-11 -- and at third base, it's plus-1. (Crosby is at 0 at first base and at minus-6 at third base.)
The Red Sox infielder -- a guy who, you might forget, finished third in MVP voting last year -- has fallen off the radar a little bit after a scorching-hot start to the season. He hit OPS'ed over 1.000 in both April and May before seeing his OPS numbers tumble all the way down to .860 and .822 in June and July, respectively. (Derek Jeter, for what it's worth, is OPS'ing .865 for the season.)
But he's now OPS'ing 1.110 in August and, if he could keep up that pace into September, could play himself right into the MVP conversation by the end of the season.
(If Mauer stays on his pace, though, forget it.)
But should Mauer stumble, Mark Teixeira isn't the only other candidate -- no matter what the heavyweight media boxing match would have you believe.
One candidate, in fact, plies his trade at Fenway Park.
Check out the American League OPS standings:
1. Mauer, 1.101
2. Kevin Youkilis, .987
3. Miguel Cabrera, .952
4. Justin Morneau, .941
5. Mark Teixeira, .934
Youkilis doesn't have some of the traditional numbers -- most notably, his 66 RBI ranked him 27th in the American League. But only Mauer has gotten on base at a better clip than Youkilis this season, and only Mauer and Los Angeles' Kendry Morales are averaging more total bases per at-bat -- which is what slugging percentage measures -- than Youkilis.
Oh, and Youkilis affords his team a flexibility unlike almost any other player in the American League. Only Oakland's Bobby Crosby has played more than 30 games at first base and third base this season, and Crosby's .223 batting average detracts from his value at those two positions just a little bit.
Youkilis also happens to play both positions awfully well. His Fielding Bible plus-minus at first base this season is plus-11 -- and at third base, it's plus-1. (Crosby is at 0 at first base and at minus-6 at third base.)
The Red Sox infielder -- a guy who, you might forget, finished third in MVP voting last year -- has fallen off the radar a little bit after a scorching-hot start to the season. He hit OPS'ed over 1.000 in both April and May before seeing his OPS numbers tumble all the way down to .860 and .822 in June and July, respectively. (Derek Jeter, for what it's worth, is OPS'ing .865 for the season.)
But he's now OPS'ing 1.110 in August and, if he could keep up that pace into September, could play himself right into the MVP conversation by the end of the season.
(If Mauer stays on his pace, though, forget it.)
Defense reigns among Red Sox farmhands
As long as we're on this minor-league theme today: Baseball America annually surveys managers across the spectrum of the minor leagues to find out who has the best tools. This exercise is illuminating enough with hitters and pitchers, but it's even more interesting when you're looking at defense -- something that's barely measured well enough in the major leagues, let alone in the minor leagues.
The results? The Red Sox have some quality defensive players moving through the lower levels of the organization. Among them:
Single-A
Best defensive catcher: Luis Exposito (Carolina League), Tim Federowicz (South Atlantic League)
Best defensive first baseman: Anthony Rizzo (South Atlantic)
Best defensive outfielder: Che-Hsuan Lin (Carolina)
Best outfield arm: Lin (Carolina)
Lin was the consensus best defensive outfielder in the South Atlantic League a year ago as well, and he's still not yet 21 years old. He has almost as many walks (58) as strikeouts (69) this season while hitting .267/.357/.374 at Single-A Salem.
For the sake of comparison, Jacoby Ellsbury hit .299/.379/.418 in half a season in the Carolina League, walking almost as often (25 times) as he struck out (28).
The results? The Red Sox have some quality defensive players moving through the lower levels of the organization. Among them:
Single-A
Best defensive catcher: Luis Exposito (Carolina League), Tim Federowicz (South Atlantic League)
Best defensive first baseman: Anthony Rizzo (South Atlantic)
Best defensive outfielder: Che-Hsuan Lin (Carolina)
Best outfield arm: Lin (Carolina)
Lin was the consensus best defensive outfielder in the South Atlantic League a year ago as well, and he's still not yet 21 years old. He has almost as many walks (58) as strikeouts (69) this season while hitting .267/.357/.374 at Single-A Salem.
For the sake of comparison, Jacoby Ellsbury hit .299/.379/.418 in half a season in the Carolina League, walking almost as often (25 times) as he struck out (28).
There's a reason the PawSox have so few hitters
Ron Johnson isn’t worried that his team isn’t hitting.
The manager of the Pawtucket Red Sox has overseen the least productive offensive team the Triple-A International League has seen in years. His PawSox have hit just .231 this season and have scored fewer than 400 runs, something no other Triple-A team in either the International League or the Pacific Coast League has managed to accomplish.
Not surprisingly, even with pitchers like Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden on the roster for most of the year, the PawSox went into the final month of their season buried in fifth place in the International League’s North Division.
“No matter what happens these last three and a half, four weeks, as far as development of players in the Boston Red Sox system, this is a positive year,” Johnson said from his office at McCoy Stadium earlier this month. “We’d like to flip the record around a little bit, but that’s the way it goes. …
“We have players that have moved to this level, and that’s going to give them an opportunity to be that much more prepared when the time comes that they have to help our major league team.”
Johnson then paused.
“That’s kind of like what we’re here to do,” he said with more than a hint of facetiousness.
Johnson’s optimism notwithstanding, this year has been one of transition for the Red Sox organization. A system that has pumped out major-league hitters like fastballs at a batting cage has gone silent this season. The Red Sox haven’t able to call for impact reinforcements as their runs-per-game average has dipped from 5.7 in April to below 4.7 in August.
Both Aaron Bates and Josh Reddick made cameo appearances in July and August, but both played reserve roles and both were dispatched back to the minor leagues after a week or two. No other hitter on the Pawtucket roster projects as an above-average major leaguer.
That, though, isn’t the case at the lower levels of the system. A system that has focused primarily on developing pitching prospects might have some of the best young hitters in baseball on its Single-A and Double-A teams.
Part of it comes back to the age-old argument about drafting college players and drafting high school players. College players come with more certainty and more immediate impact, but high school players often come with increased reward to go along with increased risk.
The Red Sox tended to choose college hitters over high school hitters in the first three drafts in under Theo Epstein. David Murphy, Matt Murton, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury and Jed Lowrie all were college hitters drafted in either the first or second round from 2003-05. Red Sox fans know all about Ellsbury, Lowrie and Pedroia, but Murphy, too, is starting in left field for the first-place Texas Rangers.
A year later, though, the Red Sox began to gamble. The first player they selected in the draft in 2006 was high school outfielder Jason Place, then a power-hitting 18-year-old with loads of potential. Three years later, he’s hitting just .221 with two home runs in 68 at-bats at Double-A Portland – but he’s also still 21 years old, younger than Ellsbury was on the day he was drafted.
Place wasn’t the only high-upside hitter the Red Sox drafted out of the high school ranks that year, either. Reddick, Lars Anderson and Ryan Kalish all began their Red Sox careers before they could take a legal drink, and that means the franchise anticipated they would take some time to develop. Reddick made his Red Sox debut in July, but he’s not expected to become a middle-of-the-order contributor at the major-league level until 2011.
Some already are ready to write off the much-hyped Anderson thanks to a season in which he’s hit just .242 with a sub-.400 slugging percent at Double-A Portland. But even Anderson won’t turn 22 years old until the end of September – the same age Kevin Youkilis was when he was trying to conquer the Single-A New York-Penn League.
It’s only natural that a gap developed between the more experienced college hitters from the early Epstein drafts and the more raw high school hitters of the more recent Epstein drafts. That gap now has made its way to the upper levels of the system.
That doesn’t help a Red Sox team fighting for its life in the final six weeks of the major-league season. It does, however, bode well for the future.
“We wish they all could come here immediately and hit .340 and crush balls out of the ballpark,” Johnson said. “That would be super. But the reality is that we have levels for a reason. It’s an adjustment period, learning, when you’re moving to the next level.”
The manager of the Pawtucket Red Sox has overseen the least productive offensive team the Triple-A International League has seen in years. His PawSox have hit just .231 this season and have scored fewer than 400 runs, something no other Triple-A team in either the International League or the Pacific Coast League has managed to accomplish.
Not surprisingly, even with pitchers like Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden on the roster for most of the year, the PawSox went into the final month of their season buried in fifth place in the International League’s North Division.
“No matter what happens these last three and a half, four weeks, as far as development of players in the Boston Red Sox system, this is a positive year,” Johnson said from his office at McCoy Stadium earlier this month. “We’d like to flip the record around a little bit, but that’s the way it goes. …
“We have players that have moved to this level, and that’s going to give them an opportunity to be that much more prepared when the time comes that they have to help our major league team.”
Johnson then paused.
“That’s kind of like what we’re here to do,” he said with more than a hint of facetiousness.
Johnson’s optimism notwithstanding, this year has been one of transition for the Red Sox organization. A system that has pumped out major-league hitters like fastballs at a batting cage has gone silent this season. The Red Sox haven’t able to call for impact reinforcements as their runs-per-game average has dipped from 5.7 in April to below 4.7 in August.
Both Aaron Bates and Josh Reddick made cameo appearances in July and August, but both played reserve roles and both were dispatched back to the minor leagues after a week or two. No other hitter on the Pawtucket roster projects as an above-average major leaguer.
That, though, isn’t the case at the lower levels of the system. A system that has focused primarily on developing pitching prospects might have some of the best young hitters in baseball on its Single-A and Double-A teams.
Part of it comes back to the age-old argument about drafting college players and drafting high school players. College players come with more certainty and more immediate impact, but high school players often come with increased reward to go along with increased risk.
The Red Sox tended to choose college hitters over high school hitters in the first three drafts in under Theo Epstein. David Murphy, Matt Murton, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury and Jed Lowrie all were college hitters drafted in either the first or second round from 2003-05. Red Sox fans know all about Ellsbury, Lowrie and Pedroia, but Murphy, too, is starting in left field for the first-place Texas Rangers.
A year later, though, the Red Sox began to gamble. The first player they selected in the draft in 2006 was high school outfielder Jason Place, then a power-hitting 18-year-old with loads of potential. Three years later, he’s hitting just .221 with two home runs in 68 at-bats at Double-A Portland – but he’s also still 21 years old, younger than Ellsbury was on the day he was drafted.
Place wasn’t the only high-upside hitter the Red Sox drafted out of the high school ranks that year, either. Reddick, Lars Anderson and Ryan Kalish all began their Red Sox careers before they could take a legal drink, and that means the franchise anticipated they would take some time to develop. Reddick made his Red Sox debut in July, but he’s not expected to become a middle-of-the-order contributor at the major-league level until 2011.
Some already are ready to write off the much-hyped Anderson thanks to a season in which he’s hit just .242 with a sub-.400 slugging percent at Double-A Portland. But even Anderson won’t turn 22 years old until the end of September – the same age Kevin Youkilis was when he was trying to conquer the Single-A New York-Penn League.
It’s only natural that a gap developed between the more experienced college hitters from the early Epstein drafts and the more raw high school hitters of the more recent Epstein drafts. That gap now has made its way to the upper levels of the system.
That doesn’t help a Red Sox team fighting for its life in the final six weeks of the major-league season. It does, however, bode well for the future.
“We wish they all could come here immediately and hit .340 and crush balls out of the ballpark,” Johnson said. “That would be super. But the reality is that we have levels for a reason. It’s an adjustment period, learning, when you’re moving to the next level.”
Pawtucket's Wagner climbing the ladder
PAWTUCKET, R.I. -- Of everything Mark Wagner brings to the table as a catcher at Triple-A Pawtucket, one thing sticks out to Pawtucket Red Sox manager Ron Johnson: His movie collection.
“He has every movie in the free world,” Johnson said. “It’s unbelievable. He’s got more movies than you can shake a stick at.”
Said Wagner, “That’s just scraping the surface. Back home, you could call us Blockbuster.”
For that reason – and because Wagner is among the newest players on the Pawtucket roster and thus brings fresh material – the catcher has become the team’s go-to guy for bus-ride entertainment. On one recent expedition between Buffalo, N.Y., and Scranton, Pa., while most of the team dozed, both manager and catcher exulted as Tom Hanks, Bill Paxton and Kevin Bacon splashed down in the Pacific Ocean in the climactic scene of “Apollo 13.”
“Arms up and wide – it was like a touchdown,” Wagner said with a wide grin. “Everybody was going wild. Well, me and him were going wild, anyway. Everyone else was probably asleep.”
An impressive collection of movies isn’t what’s going to get Wagner to the major leagues. But the 25-year-old’s catch-and-throw ability is a different story entirely. If you’re a Red Sox fan frustrated with watching opposing teams steal bases at will, in fact, Johnson has a story you’re going to want to hear.
It was the eighth inning of game in early August against Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, the Triple-A affiliate of the Yankees. Third baseman Ramiro Pena was at first base and a new pitcher was in the game, and no one was making any effort to prevent Pena from stealing second base.
“The lead was huge,” Johnson said. “The delivery time of our pitcher was slow. The runner read it and took off. The runner had plus speed. You’ve accepted the fact that this man is going to steal second base.
“When (Wagner) threw the guy out, he slid into second and popped up and ran right back to the dugout almost before the umpire made the ball because he was that out. I was like, ‘You’ve got to be (kidding) me! He just threw that guy out!’”
Wagner has thrown out almost half of potential base-stealers this season: 31 of 67, a rate of 46 percent. He threw out 62 percent of would-be base-stealers at Double-A Portland and has caught 34 percent of would-be base-stealers since his promotion to Triple-A Pawtucket.
The average Double-A catcher this season is throwing out 33 percent of base-stealers. The average Triple-A catcher this season is throwing out 27 percent of base-stealers.
“He’s probably about quick as I’ve seen as far as guys throwing the ball,” Johnson said. “His release is ridiculous.”
(Wagner isn't the only strong defensive catcher coming up through the Red Sox system. Single-A managers chose Luis Exposito and Tim Federowicz the best defensive catchers in the Carolina League and the South Atlanta League, respectively.)
Wagner's bat is coming along, too. He hit .301 and had more walks (28) than strikeouts (26) for Portland during the first half of the season before his promotion to Pawtucket. He since has hit .229 and has three times as many strikeouts (18) as walks (5) – but that’s in a four-week stretch in the dog days of the summer.
Besides, when it comes to catchers, the bat often is the last thing to come along. Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek hit .224 in his first season in Double-A and .244 in his first season in Triple-A but hit .269 with 20 home runs in his first full season in the major leagues.
Wagner knows everything is coming together for him. It’s just not coming together quickly enough – say, with the speed he throws out prospective base-stealers.
“I feel like I’m a high-energy guy, and when I’m on the field, the energy is really there, really going, and I’ve got to learn to channel that in the right way and not be out of control,” he said. “That’s in terms of hitting and staying consistent with my swing and not trying to do too much – and catching, not trying to throw one (second) flat to second base but to stay within myself. When I stay within myself, I’ve found, I can hit with the best of them and throw with the best of them.”
Outgoing and well-spoken, he has the maturity to be a clubhouse leader and the enthusiasm to be a pick-me-up for a struggling pitcher. Not much gets to him – he caught Nolan Ryan at a charity event in college and John Smoltz in a rehab start at Double-A, and he didn’t seem fazed by either.
But he still needs to find the even keel he’ll need to advance to the next level. Fenway Park is somewhere on the horizon, but he’s not there yet.
“Sometimes I don’t have the most patience in the world,” he said. “But I’ve got to take that time and, in the end, it’ll all work out for the best.”
“He has every movie in the free world,” Johnson said. “It’s unbelievable. He’s got more movies than you can shake a stick at.”
Said Wagner, “That’s just scraping the surface. Back home, you could call us Blockbuster.”
For that reason – and because Wagner is among the newest players on the Pawtucket roster and thus brings fresh material – the catcher has become the team’s go-to guy for bus-ride entertainment. On one recent expedition between Buffalo, N.Y., and Scranton, Pa., while most of the team dozed, both manager and catcher exulted as Tom Hanks, Bill Paxton and Kevin Bacon splashed down in the Pacific Ocean in the climactic scene of “Apollo 13.”
“Arms up and wide – it was like a touchdown,” Wagner said with a wide grin. “Everybody was going wild. Well, me and him were going wild, anyway. Everyone else was probably asleep.”
An impressive collection of movies isn’t what’s going to get Wagner to the major leagues. But the 25-year-old’s catch-and-throw ability is a different story entirely. If you’re a Red Sox fan frustrated with watching opposing teams steal bases at will, in fact, Johnson has a story you’re going to want to hear.
It was the eighth inning of game in early August against Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, the Triple-A affiliate of the Yankees. Third baseman Ramiro Pena was at first base and a new pitcher was in the game, and no one was making any effort to prevent Pena from stealing second base.
“The lead was huge,” Johnson said. “The delivery time of our pitcher was slow. The runner read it and took off. The runner had plus speed. You’ve accepted the fact that this man is going to steal second base.
“When (Wagner) threw the guy out, he slid into second and popped up and ran right back to the dugout almost before the umpire made the ball because he was that out. I was like, ‘You’ve got to be (kidding) me! He just threw that guy out!’”
Wagner has thrown out almost half of potential base-stealers this season: 31 of 67, a rate of 46 percent. He threw out 62 percent of would-be base-stealers at Double-A Portland and has caught 34 percent of would-be base-stealers since his promotion to Triple-A Pawtucket.
The average Double-A catcher this season is throwing out 33 percent of base-stealers. The average Triple-A catcher this season is throwing out 27 percent of base-stealers.
“He’s probably about quick as I’ve seen as far as guys throwing the ball,” Johnson said. “His release is ridiculous.”
(Wagner isn't the only strong defensive catcher coming up through the Red Sox system. Single-A managers chose Luis Exposito and Tim Federowicz the best defensive catchers in the Carolina League and the South Atlanta League, respectively.)
Wagner's bat is coming along, too. He hit .301 and had more walks (28) than strikeouts (26) for Portland during the first half of the season before his promotion to Pawtucket. He since has hit .229 and has three times as many strikeouts (18) as walks (5) – but that’s in a four-week stretch in the dog days of the summer.
Besides, when it comes to catchers, the bat often is the last thing to come along. Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek hit .224 in his first season in Double-A and .244 in his first season in Triple-A but hit .269 with 20 home runs in his first full season in the major leagues.
Wagner knows everything is coming together for him. It’s just not coming together quickly enough – say, with the speed he throws out prospective base-stealers.
“I feel like I’m a high-energy guy, and when I’m on the field, the energy is really there, really going, and I’ve got to learn to channel that in the right way and not be out of control,” he said. “That’s in terms of hitting and staying consistent with my swing and not trying to do too much – and catching, not trying to throw one (second) flat to second base but to stay within myself. When I stay within myself, I’ve found, I can hit with the best of them and throw with the best of them.”
Outgoing and well-spoken, he has the maturity to be a clubhouse leader and the enthusiasm to be a pick-me-up for a struggling pitcher. Not much gets to him – he caught Nolan Ryan at a charity event in college and John Smoltz in a rehab start at Double-A, and he didn’t seem fazed by either.
But he still needs to find the even keel he’ll need to advance to the next level. Fenway Park is somewhere on the horizon, but he’s not there yet.
“Sometimes I don’t have the most patience in the world,” he said. “But I’ve got to take that time and, in the end, it’ll all work out for the best.”
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Brad Penny's command slowly vanishing
Brad Penny has always been a first-half pitcher. All of his career numbers -- win-loss record, ERA, WHIP, etc. -- trend the wrong way after the All-Star break.
Even in 2007, his best season, he had a 2.39 ERA in the first half and a 3.84 ERA the rest of the way. He had an ERA of 1.95 in April and 2.15 in May but saw his ERA jump to 4.91 in July and 4.00 in August.
It should come as no surprise, then, that his numbers have started to go the wrong way this season. He had a 4.71 ERA at the All-Star break -- including a 3.18 ERA in five starts in June -- but hasn't kept it up since. He has a 6.62 ERA in his last six starts. He allowed four earned runs in 5 2/3 innings on Saturday in Texas, surrendering eight hits and four walks in a game the Red Sox never really had a chance to win.
(He and catcher Jason Varitek also allowed the Rangers to steal six bases, but that's a discussion for another time and place.)
Contrary to perception, Penny appears to be putting in the work to get him through the season. Anectodatally, no other Red Sox player so regularly runs the aisles of the Fenway Park grandstand. Penny sprints up the stairs and walks back down the stairs at least three times a week during homestands -- often right in the heat of the mid-afternoon.
(What's interesting to watch is the way Fenway Park tour groups respond: Penny is so anonymous in Boston that he occasionally runs right by a group intently listening to the history of the Green Monster without anyone noticing.)
The work appears to be paying off: His fastball velocity has held steady in the dog days of summer -- despite what you might think from looking at the raw numbers. The Fenway Park radar gun appeared to be juiced in late July, and Penny wasn't the only pitcher to see an extra boost in his miles-per-hour totals.
Consider the average velocity on his fastball in his three most recent starts at Fenway Park:
* July 24: 96.27
* July 29: 96.1
* Aug. 10: 93.45
Compare that to three Daniel Bard appearances around the same time:
* July 25: 99.55
* July 30: 99.69
* Aug. 11: 97.08
(Data compiled at BrooksBaseball.net)
Bard has seen his velocity drop at the same rate as Penny, and that means you probably can attribute the drop in Penny's velocity to a misleading radar gun more than to any sort of weakness in his shoulder.
His stuff is still potent.
You can't say the same for his command.
Going back to the incredible wealth of data at BrooksBaseball.net, let's take a look at some pitch charts from his best start of the season -- the six shutout innings he threw against the Yankees on June 11 -- and his last start in Texas.
(This chart graphs horizontal movement against speed. It's not a view of the strike zone in any way.)
June 11
Aug. 15
The key to these charts is to examine the way pitches are grouped together. The tighter the grouping of data points -- each data point, of course, represents a pitch -- the more consistency and the more command shown in the outing.
Against the Yankees in mid-June, Penny's fastball was tight and consistent and thrown with authority. Almost every fastball came in at the same speed and with the same type of movement, making it an easy thing for Varitek to set a target and for Penny to hit it.
Against the Rangers on Saturday, his fastball was all over the place. Having to deal with base-stealers doesn't help, but when there's a variance of 10 or 12 inches in the movement of a fastball, well, that means a pitcher isn't commanding the way he should.
Two more charts -- this time a look at the strike zone from the catcher's point of view:
June 11
Aug. 15
Ignore the green dots. We've already covered Penny's lack of command on his fastball. The focus here is on the pink dots -- as well as, in the second chart, the orange dots. Those are Penny's breaking balls. He didn't throw a slider at all against the Yankees but has started to work the pitch into his repetoire more and more since mid-July.
(Come to think of it, that might be part of the issue. Against the Rangers, he threw 20 sliders and just three curveballs -- a baffling development considering how often he was throwing his curveball while he was having so much success in June.)
Either way, it's not about velocity with breaking pitches as much as it is about location. Penny missed with a few curveballs against the Yankees in mid-June but mostly kept them either in the lower half of the strike zone or in the dirt. Against Texas, though, Penny left both sliders and curveballs in the top half of the zone -- exactly the wrong place to leave them against a quality lineup.
(The pitch Ian Kinsler hit out in the second inning? A slider up.)
Penny isn't commanding his fastball, and he isn't commanding his breaking pitches, either. With so little margin for error, he and John Farrell are going to have to find an answer pretty fast.
Even in 2007, his best season, he had a 2.39 ERA in the first half and a 3.84 ERA the rest of the way. He had an ERA of 1.95 in April and 2.15 in May but saw his ERA jump to 4.91 in July and 4.00 in August.
It should come as no surprise, then, that his numbers have started to go the wrong way this season. He had a 4.71 ERA at the All-Star break -- including a 3.18 ERA in five starts in June -- but hasn't kept it up since. He has a 6.62 ERA in his last six starts. He allowed four earned runs in 5 2/3 innings on Saturday in Texas, surrendering eight hits and four walks in a game the Red Sox never really had a chance to win.
(He and catcher Jason Varitek also allowed the Rangers to steal six bases, but that's a discussion for another time and place.)
Contrary to perception, Penny appears to be putting in the work to get him through the season. Anectodatally, no other Red Sox player so regularly runs the aisles of the Fenway Park grandstand. Penny sprints up the stairs and walks back down the stairs at least three times a week during homestands -- often right in the heat of the mid-afternoon.
(What's interesting to watch is the way Fenway Park tour groups respond: Penny is so anonymous in Boston that he occasionally runs right by a group intently listening to the history of the Green Monster without anyone noticing.)
The work appears to be paying off: His fastball velocity has held steady in the dog days of summer -- despite what you might think from looking at the raw numbers. The Fenway Park radar gun appeared to be juiced in late July, and Penny wasn't the only pitcher to see an extra boost in his miles-per-hour totals.
Consider the average velocity on his fastball in his three most recent starts at Fenway Park:
* July 24: 96.27
* July 29: 96.1
* Aug. 10: 93.45
Compare that to three Daniel Bard appearances around the same time:
* July 25: 99.55
* July 30: 99.69
* Aug. 11: 97.08
(Data compiled at BrooksBaseball.net)
Bard has seen his velocity drop at the same rate as Penny, and that means you probably can attribute the drop in Penny's velocity to a misleading radar gun more than to any sort of weakness in his shoulder.
His stuff is still potent.
You can't say the same for his command.
Going back to the incredible wealth of data at BrooksBaseball.net, let's take a look at some pitch charts from his best start of the season -- the six shutout innings he threw against the Yankees on June 11 -- and his last start in Texas.
(This chart graphs horizontal movement against speed. It's not a view of the strike zone in any way.)
June 11
Aug. 15
The key to these charts is to examine the way pitches are grouped together. The tighter the grouping of data points -- each data point, of course, represents a pitch -- the more consistency and the more command shown in the outing.
Against the Yankees in mid-June, Penny's fastball was tight and consistent and thrown with authority. Almost every fastball came in at the same speed and with the same type of movement, making it an easy thing for Varitek to set a target and for Penny to hit it.
Against the Rangers on Saturday, his fastball was all over the place. Having to deal with base-stealers doesn't help, but when there's a variance of 10 or 12 inches in the movement of a fastball, well, that means a pitcher isn't commanding the way he should.
Two more charts -- this time a look at the strike zone from the catcher's point of view:
June 11
Aug. 15
Ignore the green dots. We've already covered Penny's lack of command on his fastball. The focus here is on the pink dots -- as well as, in the second chart, the orange dots. Those are Penny's breaking balls. He didn't throw a slider at all against the Yankees but has started to work the pitch into his repetoire more and more since mid-July.
(Come to think of it, that might be part of the issue. Against the Rangers, he threw 20 sliders and just three curveballs -- a baffling development considering how often he was throwing his curveball while he was having so much success in June.)
Either way, it's not about velocity with breaking pitches as much as it is about location. Penny missed with a few curveballs against the Yankees in mid-June but mostly kept them either in the lower half of the strike zone or in the dirt. Against Texas, though, Penny left both sliders and curveballs in the top half of the zone -- exactly the wrong place to leave them against a quality lineup.
(The pitch Ian Kinsler hit out in the second inning? A slider up.)
Penny isn't commanding his fastball, and he isn't commanding his breaking pitches, either. With so little margin for error, he and John Farrell are going to have to find an answer pretty fast.
Monday, August 17, 2009
Locking up Jacoby Ellsbury
Red Sox officials no doubt took notice last week when the Arizona Diamondbacks optioned outfielder Chris Young to Triple-A Reno in an effort to rediscover his swing and validate the huge investment they made in him less than two years ago.
Here's what the Diamondbacks owe Young over the course of the contract extension he signed in the spring of 2008:
2009: $1.75 million
2010: $3.25 million
2011: $5 million
2012: $7 million
2013: $8.5 million
2014: $11 million option or a $1.5 million option
Young had 702 major-league plate appearances under his belt when he signed his contract extension. Jacoby Ellsbury will have close to 1,500 major-league plate appearances at the end of this season. Ellsbury also will have virtually the same amount of major-league service time at the end of this season that Dustin Pedroia had when he signed his six-year extension this winter. (All of the three players are almost precisely the same age, too. All three will turn 26 between now and mid-September.)
It's not too early to wonder if the Red Sox are going to approach Ellsbury about a five- or six-year contract extension at some point this winter.
Several teams, including the Red Sox, have done well to sign their cornerstone players to long-term contracts at team-friendly rates. Evan Longoria's deal with Tampa Bay, in fact, is so one-sided the Rays might want to think about buying him a truck or something.
Pedroia, too, will make less money over the next six seasons than Mark Teixeira will make over the next two, but he traded away the chance to earn an extra $10 or $15 million for the security of knowing a career-ending injury won't have an adverse affect on his family.
Ellsbury will be eligible for salary arbitration for the first time following the 2010 season, and the Red Sox immediately will be on the hook for somewhere between $1 million and $3 million. The year after that, the number will jump to between $3 million and $5 million. The year after that? Who knows?
That's why it might behoove the Red Sox to act now and avoid paying later. Tampa Bay signed outfielder Carl Crawford for a four-year, $15.75 million extension even before he became eligible for arbitration, a contract that broke down as follows:
2005: $0.5 million
2006: $2.5 million
2007: $4 million
2008: $5.25 million
2009: $8.25 million option or a $2.5 million buyout
2010: $10 million option or a $1.25 million buyout
Ellsbury, you have to imagine, isn't going to settle for a contract as team-friendly as that of Crawford. He'll likely look for something more along the lines of what Young got from Arizona or what Curtis Granderson got from the Detroit Tigers the year before he got to arbitration, a contract that looks like this:
2008: $1 million
2009: $3.5 million
2010: $5.5 million
2011: $8.25 million
2012: $10 million
2013: $13 million or a $2 million buyout
(Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for all of the salary information.)
The Tigers gambled that Granderson would be worth $8.25 million and $10 million in 2011 and 2012. (So far, so good.) The Diamondbacks gambled that Young would be worth $7 million and $8.5 million in 2012 and 2013. (So far, well, not so much.)
If the Red Sox sign Ellsbury long-term, they'll have to take a similar leap of faith and hope he's someone around whom they can build for the next five or six years. If they don't view him that way, well, they might be better off offering him to Seattle in a package for Felix Hernandez either this winter or next.
Here's what the Diamondbacks owe Young over the course of the contract extension he signed in the spring of 2008:
2009: $1.75 million
2010: $3.25 million
2011: $5 million
2012: $7 million
2013: $8.5 million
2014: $11 million option or a $1.5 million option
Young had 702 major-league plate appearances under his belt when he signed his contract extension. Jacoby Ellsbury will have close to 1,500 major-league plate appearances at the end of this season. Ellsbury also will have virtually the same amount of major-league service time at the end of this season that Dustin Pedroia had when he signed his six-year extension this winter. (All of the three players are almost precisely the same age, too. All three will turn 26 between now and mid-September.)
It's not too early to wonder if the Red Sox are going to approach Ellsbury about a five- or six-year contract extension at some point this winter.
Several teams, including the Red Sox, have done well to sign their cornerstone players to long-term contracts at team-friendly rates. Evan Longoria's deal with Tampa Bay, in fact, is so one-sided the Rays might want to think about buying him a truck or something.
Pedroia, too, will make less money over the next six seasons than Mark Teixeira will make over the next two, but he traded away the chance to earn an extra $10 or $15 million for the security of knowing a career-ending injury won't have an adverse affect on his family.
Ellsbury will be eligible for salary arbitration for the first time following the 2010 season, and the Red Sox immediately will be on the hook for somewhere between $1 million and $3 million. The year after that, the number will jump to between $3 million and $5 million. The year after that? Who knows?
That's why it might behoove the Red Sox to act now and avoid paying later. Tampa Bay signed outfielder Carl Crawford for a four-year, $15.75 million extension even before he became eligible for arbitration, a contract that broke down as follows:
2005: $0.5 million
2006: $2.5 million
2007: $4 million
2008: $5.25 million
2009: $8.25 million option or a $2.5 million buyout
2010: $10 million option or a $1.25 million buyout
Ellsbury, you have to imagine, isn't going to settle for a contract as team-friendly as that of Crawford. He'll likely look for something more along the lines of what Young got from Arizona or what Curtis Granderson got from the Detroit Tigers the year before he got to arbitration, a contract that looks like this:
2008: $1 million
2009: $3.5 million
2010: $5.5 million
2011: $8.25 million
2012: $10 million
2013: $13 million or a $2 million buyout
(Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for all of the salary information.)
The Tigers gambled that Granderson would be worth $8.25 million and $10 million in 2011 and 2012. (So far, so good.) The Diamondbacks gambled that Young would be worth $7 million and $8.5 million in 2012 and 2013. (So far, well, not so much.)
If the Red Sox sign Ellsbury long-term, they'll have to take a similar leap of faith and hope he's someone around whom they can build for the next five or six years. If they don't view him that way, well, they might be better off offering him to Seattle in a package for Felix Hernandez either this winter or next.
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Terry Francona's favorite ejection
When Terry Francona jogged out to give second-base umpire Scott Barry a piece of his mind after J.D. Drew was caught stealing, he knew he was going to get thrown out of the game. It wasn't because he planned to get thrown out. It was because he was going out there intent on arguing a different play.
He still wanted to talk about the play from the first inning where Carlos Guillen, Francona believed, slid out of the baseline to prevent Dustin Pedroia from turning a double play. Barry actually didn't toss him from the game right away, which surprised him, and that's why the argument turned animated when Barry eventually did offer him an early shower.
"I said to him, 'You're probably going to end up throwing me out because I know I can't do this,'" Francona said. "And then when he didn't throw me out, I was like, 'OK, I said my piece, and now I'll get out of here.' And then he threw me out, so I went and yelled at him a little bit more."
He even threw his gum, but that wasn't any sort of extra protest. That actually was out of courtesy to Barry.
"I didn't want to spit on him," Francona said. "I know it looks stupid. It wasn't anything to rile up the fans. When I go out there, if I have it in, I was all of a sudden cognizant of the fact that it was in there and I'd better get rid of it. Jerry (Crawford, the crew chief) was right there. It just happened. That's all I need to do is hit him with it."
Francona isn't a manager who normally goes out to argue with an umpire just to get ejected or to fire up his team somehow -- unlike, say, Bobby Cox. Still, though, it happens.
"I know people like to hear, 'Well, the manager is getting the team fired up,'" Francona said. "I think the other way. When things are going bad, if I lose it, you might see two or three guys behind me (lose it). We don't do that very often here, which is good. Our guys, for the most part, stay in the game and play. ...
"For the most part, it's when an umpire reacts to something normally that, at the time, it strikes me wrong. That's what happens. It could be something I said, too. I understand that. I say something and he reacts and then you say the magic word, and it's, 'Thanks for coming.'"
Sometimes, though, a manager has no choice but to get thrown out of a game.
It was this same time of year almost a decade ago: Aug. 10, 2000. Francona's Phillies were getting soundly trounced by the San Diego Padres and were about to fall 19 1/2 games behind the Atlanta Braves in the National League East. Francona would be relieved of his duties as Phillies manager barely a month and a half later.
(The details in this story are not exactly the same details as the story Francona told local reporters a couple of days ago, but they match closely enough Francona's memory likely is just a little bit fuzzy.)
Randy Wolf had surrendered eight earned runs in 5 2/3 innings, and relievers Wayne Gomes and Mark Holzemer weren't doing much better. Bret Boone had hit a three-run home run in the third inning, and Phil Nevin and Joe Vitello each had hit home runs in the sixth. It was another frustrating game for a frustrated team.
(You have to wonder sometimes if Francona reminds himself of those days when games get frustrating at this time of year in Boston. Being in contention every year is an unbelievable blessing, and given what he experienced in Philadelphia, it's hard to believe Francona takes it for granted.)
Damian Jackson hit a triple to right field that actually bounced over the fence and should have been ruled a ground-rule double. First-base umpire Charlie Williams ruled it a triple that allowed two runs to score, and Francona went out after him.
"It didn't affect the game, but it was like, 'Charlie, come on, man,'" Francona said.
There were just shy of 16,000 fans in the seats, and all of them either were booing or asleep.
"Listen to this crowd," Francona told Williams upon arriving at the umpire's feet. "When I leave this field, they're going to crucify me. I'm going to have to get thrown out here."
Said Williams, "I will not throw you out because of my bad call."
Francona was flabbergasted.
"Charlie," the manager said, "don't make me tell you something I'm going to regret. Just throw me out."
"I'm not going to throw you out," Williams said.
The two went back and forth for a couple of minutes until the umpire came up with an idea that would save a little face for both of them.
"Take your hat off and throw it," he said.
"No!" Francona said. "I'm not going to embarrass myself! Just throw me out!"
Williams, with an assist from one of the other members of that day's umpiring crew, eventually gave Francona the heave-ho.
He still wanted to talk about the play from the first inning where Carlos Guillen, Francona believed, slid out of the baseline to prevent Dustin Pedroia from turning a double play. Barry actually didn't toss him from the game right away, which surprised him, and that's why the argument turned animated when Barry eventually did offer him an early shower.
"I said to him, 'You're probably going to end up throwing me out because I know I can't do this,'" Francona said. "And then when he didn't throw me out, I was like, 'OK, I said my piece, and now I'll get out of here.' And then he threw me out, so I went and yelled at him a little bit more."
He even threw his gum, but that wasn't any sort of extra protest. That actually was out of courtesy to Barry.
"I didn't want to spit on him," Francona said. "I know it looks stupid. It wasn't anything to rile up the fans. When I go out there, if I have it in, I was all of a sudden cognizant of the fact that it was in there and I'd better get rid of it. Jerry (Crawford, the crew chief) was right there. It just happened. That's all I need to do is hit him with it."
Francona isn't a manager who normally goes out to argue with an umpire just to get ejected or to fire up his team somehow -- unlike, say, Bobby Cox. Still, though, it happens.
"I know people like to hear, 'Well, the manager is getting the team fired up,'" Francona said. "I think the other way. When things are going bad, if I lose it, you might see two or three guys behind me (lose it). We don't do that very often here, which is good. Our guys, for the most part, stay in the game and play. ...
"For the most part, it's when an umpire reacts to something normally that, at the time, it strikes me wrong. That's what happens. It could be something I said, too. I understand that. I say something and he reacts and then you say the magic word, and it's, 'Thanks for coming.'"
Sometimes, though, a manager has no choice but to get thrown out of a game.
It was this same time of year almost a decade ago: Aug. 10, 2000. Francona's Phillies were getting soundly trounced by the San Diego Padres and were about to fall 19 1/2 games behind the Atlanta Braves in the National League East. Francona would be relieved of his duties as Phillies manager barely a month and a half later.
(The details in this story are not exactly the same details as the story Francona told local reporters a couple of days ago, but they match closely enough Francona's memory likely is just a little bit fuzzy.)
Randy Wolf had surrendered eight earned runs in 5 2/3 innings, and relievers Wayne Gomes and Mark Holzemer weren't doing much better. Bret Boone had hit a three-run home run in the third inning, and Phil Nevin and Joe Vitello each had hit home runs in the sixth. It was another frustrating game for a frustrated team.(You have to wonder sometimes if Francona reminds himself of those days when games get frustrating at this time of year in Boston. Being in contention every year is an unbelievable blessing, and given what he experienced in Philadelphia, it's hard to believe Francona takes it for granted.)
Damian Jackson hit a triple to right field that actually bounced over the fence and should have been ruled a ground-rule double. First-base umpire Charlie Williams ruled it a triple that allowed two runs to score, and Francona went out after him.
"It didn't affect the game, but it was like, 'Charlie, come on, man,'" Francona said.
There were just shy of 16,000 fans in the seats, and all of them either were booing or asleep.
"Listen to this crowd," Francona told Williams upon arriving at the umpire's feet. "When I leave this field, they're going to crucify me. I'm going to have to get thrown out here."
Said Williams, "I will not throw you out because of my bad call."
Francona was flabbergasted.
"Charlie," the manager said, "don't make me tell you something I'm going to regret. Just throw me out."
"I'm not going to throw you out," Williams said.
The two went back and forth for a couple of minutes until the umpire came up with an idea that would save a little face for both of them.
"Take your hat off and throw it," he said.
"No!" Francona said. "I'm not going to embarrass myself! Just throw me out!"
Williams, with an assist from one of the other members of that day's umpiring crew, eventually gave Francona the heave-ho.
Saturday, August 15, 2009
The optimal Red Sox lineup
Kevin Youkilis will return from his suspension on Tuesday in Toronto and bring with him one of the best bats in the Red Sox lineup. His return, though, will make things even more challenging for Red Sox manager Terry Francona in his effort to juggle playing time for the weapons at his disposal.
We can hold a few truths to be self-evident:
1. Jason Bay, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Victor Martinez, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis should be in the Red Sox lineup just about every single day.
2. Neither Alex Gonzalez, acquired Friday from Cincinnati, or Nick Green should be hitting higher than ninth in the lineup.
3. Casey Kotchman is a terrific defensive first baseman.
4. Red Sox pitchers, particularly Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, love throwing to Jason Varitek.
5. Mike Lowell and David Ortiz both are getting older and slower and bring varying degrees of effectiveness with the bat -- and both have significant numbers left on their contracts
The issue facing Francona right now revolves mostly around first base, catcher and designated hitter. Ortiz and Varitek each have a long history with Francona and with the Red Sox, but neither is swinging anything resembling a productive bat. Mike Lowell is swinging a hotter bat than anyone on the team but doesn't have adequate range to play third base every day. Casey Kotchman is a fairly average hitter but can really, really pick it at first base.
But with Victor Martinez an everyday presence, only two of the four can play every day.
Who should it be?
Here's how they stack up this year against lefties...
Lowell: .903 OPS
Varitek: .872
Ortiz: .720
Kotchman: .634
... and against righties:
Lowell: .818 OPS
Kotchman: .806
Varitek: .719
Ortiz: .696
It really is that simple.
Lowell should be DH'ing every day. Varitek should catch primarily against lefties and sit primarily against lefties, though his rapport with Josh Beckett and Jon Lester ought to have something to do with it, too.
Kotchman should sit against lefties and play against righties. Ortiz should be a formidable lefthanded bat off the bench who can give opposing managers pause when they're thinking about bringing in a right to face the bottom of the Red Sox lineup.
Youkilis will be back Tuesday. We'll see how Francona plays it.
We can hold a few truths to be self-evident:
1. Jason Bay, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Victor Martinez, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis should be in the Red Sox lineup just about every single day.
2. Neither Alex Gonzalez, acquired Friday from Cincinnati, or Nick Green should be hitting higher than ninth in the lineup.
3. Casey Kotchman is a terrific defensive first baseman.
4. Red Sox pitchers, particularly Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, love throwing to Jason Varitek.
5. Mike Lowell and David Ortiz both are getting older and slower and bring varying degrees of effectiveness with the bat -- and both have significant numbers left on their contracts
The issue facing Francona right now revolves mostly around first base, catcher and designated hitter. Ortiz and Varitek each have a long history with Francona and with the Red Sox, but neither is swinging anything resembling a productive bat. Mike Lowell is swinging a hotter bat than anyone on the team but doesn't have adequate range to play third base every day. Casey Kotchman is a fairly average hitter but can really, really pick it at first base.
But with Victor Martinez an everyday presence, only two of the four can play every day.
Who should it be?
Here's how they stack up this year against lefties...
Lowell: .903 OPS
Varitek: .872
Ortiz: .720
Kotchman: .634
... and against righties:
Lowell: .818 OPS
Kotchman: .806
Varitek: .719
Ortiz: .696
It really is that simple.
Lowell should be DH'ing every day. Varitek should catch primarily against lefties and sit primarily against lefties, though his rapport with Josh Beckett and Jon Lester ought to have something to do with it, too.
Kotchman should sit against lefties and play against righties. Ortiz should be a formidable lefthanded bat off the bench who can give opposing managers pause when they're thinking about bringing in a right to face the bottom of the Red Sox lineup.
Youkilis will be back Tuesday. We'll see how Francona plays it.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Victor Martinez and Clay Buchholz
"You really want to know what they like to do and what they don’t like to do in any situation. That way, you make it easier for them when they’re on the mound." -- Victor Martinez
New acquisition Victor Martinez caught Clay Buchholz on Thursday for the third time and essentially has become the young righty's personal catcher. Martinez, acquired from Cleveland two weeks ago, has caught John Smoltz once and Brad Penny once but now has caught Buchholz three times.
It's not easy for a catcher, even a veteran like Martinez, to come in right away and call games from behind the plate. He might know what a pitcher likes to throw to get a strikeout, for example, but he might not know how he likes to attack different hitters early in counts or what he wants to do when he needs a ground ball.
Buchholz pitched against the Oakland A's at Fenway Park on July 28, throwing to George Kottaras. He has thrown to Martinez in each of his last three starts. Here's a look at some of the contrasts between the two starts, contrasts that you can attribute, in part, to the way Martinez called the game.
(You have to take all of these adjustments with a grain of salt given the small sample size. Some of them might have been due to the difference in lineups or difference in ballparks. Still, though, it's interesting to look at.)
Pitch selection
Buchholz threw 57 fastballs, 23 changeups and a season-high 21 curveballs while pitching to Kottaras on July 28. It was the first time he'd thrown more than 20 curveballs in a game since he was called up from Triple-A Pawtucket at the All-Star break.
On Aug. 2, Martinez's first start behind the plate, Buchholz threw 47 fastballs, 18 changeups and just six curveballs. He also threw four sliders. Buchholz has said often in the last few weeks that he's struggled to get a feel for his curveball, and you could infer that he indicated that to Martinez during their conversations. He threw a handful of curveballs, but when the situation called for something other than a fastball, Martinez usually called for a changeup.
That theme repeated itself on Thursday.
Buchholz hasn't had a feel for the curveball and hasn't been able to throw it for strikes, and Martinez has gone right along with that, not being afraid to emphasize the changeup and slider if the curveball isn't there. Buchholz threw 60 fastballs and just eight curveballs, relying primarily on his changeup as a pitch to induce swings and misses as well as ground balls.
"I didn’t throw a whole lot of curveballs because I felt really good throwing the changeup," Buchholz said. "That’s been the biggest pitch for me throughout the last month or so. The slider came out of my hand pretty good today, but I didn’t see many opportunities to throw it. I thought I had a better matchup with the changeup. I thought I could have thrown either of the four pitches during the game, but I just preferred the changeup."
So, too, did Martinez. He's the one who calls the pitches.
Pitch location
Against the Athletics on July 28, Buchholz kept everything up and in, even throwing his curveball up and over the inner half.
(In looking at the approach charts, take the point of view of the catcher with the idea that everything on the left side of the chart is inside, to lefties or to righties, and everything on the right side of the chart is outside.)
Against the Orioles on Aug. 2, though, Martinez kept his target down and away. Buchholz threw just one curveball and just one changeup over the inner half of the plate, and everything else was away.
Staying on the outer half of the plate again is a way of simplifying everything. It takes quite a bit of confidence to attack the inside half of the plate, and you're not going to get burned nearly as badly by pitches on the outside corner as on the inside corner -- particularly with offspeed pitches.
Then again, it also leads to a lot of ground-ball outs. Here's Buchholz's approach chart from Thursday's loss to the Detroit Tigers:
It's obvious right away which previous start has more in common with Thursday. Buchholz and Martinez have come up with a game plan that consists primarily of pounding the outside corner with both fastballs and offspeed pitches, and it's starting to work.
New acquisition Victor Martinez caught Clay Buchholz on Thursday for the third time and essentially has become the young righty's personal catcher. Martinez, acquired from Cleveland two weeks ago, has caught John Smoltz once and Brad Penny once but now has caught Buchholz three times.
It's not easy for a catcher, even a veteran like Martinez, to come in right away and call games from behind the plate. He might know what a pitcher likes to throw to get a strikeout, for example, but he might not know how he likes to attack different hitters early in counts or what he wants to do when he needs a ground ball.
Buchholz pitched against the Oakland A's at Fenway Park on July 28, throwing to George Kottaras. He has thrown to Martinez in each of his last three starts. Here's a look at some of the contrasts between the two starts, contrasts that you can attribute, in part, to the way Martinez called the game.
(You have to take all of these adjustments with a grain of salt given the small sample size. Some of them might have been due to the difference in lineups or difference in ballparks. Still, though, it's interesting to look at.)
Pitch selection
Buchholz threw 57 fastballs, 23 changeups and a season-high 21 curveballs while pitching to Kottaras on July 28. It was the first time he'd thrown more than 20 curveballs in a game since he was called up from Triple-A Pawtucket at the All-Star break.
On Aug. 2, Martinez's first start behind the plate, Buchholz threw 47 fastballs, 18 changeups and just six curveballs. He also threw four sliders. Buchholz has said often in the last few weeks that he's struggled to get a feel for his curveball, and you could infer that he indicated that to Martinez during their conversations. He threw a handful of curveballs, but when the situation called for something other than a fastball, Martinez usually called for a changeup.
That theme repeated itself on Thursday.
Buchholz hasn't had a feel for the curveball and hasn't been able to throw it for strikes, and Martinez has gone right along with that, not being afraid to emphasize the changeup and slider if the curveball isn't there. Buchholz threw 60 fastballs and just eight curveballs, relying primarily on his changeup as a pitch to induce swings and misses as well as ground balls.
"I didn’t throw a whole lot of curveballs because I felt really good throwing the changeup," Buchholz said. "That’s been the biggest pitch for me throughout the last month or so. The slider came out of my hand pretty good today, but I didn’t see many opportunities to throw it. I thought I had a better matchup with the changeup. I thought I could have thrown either of the four pitches during the game, but I just preferred the changeup."
So, too, did Martinez. He's the one who calls the pitches.
Pitch location
Against the Athletics on July 28, Buchholz kept everything up and in, even throwing his curveball up and over the inner half.
(In looking at the approach charts, take the point of view of the catcher with the idea that everything on the left side of the chart is inside, to lefties or to righties, and everything on the right side of the chart is outside.)
Against the Orioles on Aug. 2, though, Martinez kept his target down and away. Buchholz threw just one curveball and just one changeup over the inner half of the plate, and everything else was away.
Staying on the outer half of the plate again is a way of simplifying everything. It takes quite a bit of confidence to attack the inside half of the plate, and you're not going to get burned nearly as badly by pitches on the outside corner as on the inside corner -- particularly with offspeed pitches.
Then again, it also leads to a lot of ground-ball outs. Here's Buchholz's approach chart from Thursday's loss to the Detroit Tigers:
It's obvious right away which previous start has more in common with Thursday. Buchholz and Martinez have come up with a game plan that consists primarily of pounding the outside corner with both fastballs and offspeed pitches, and it's starting to work.
Beckett still trailing in Cy Young race
A year ago, both Francisco Rodriguez and Mariano Rivera received votes for the American League Cy Young Award. That, though, was largely a function of a serious dearth of serious candidates behind Cleveland's Cliff Lee and Toronto's Roy Halladay. (Daisuke Matsuzaka received more votes than any starting pitcher other than Lee and Halladay. That should tell you something.)
Voters won't have that type of problem this season. The American League Cy Young Award race is shaping up to be a doozy down the stretch. Five pitchers feature an ERA+ of 150 to this point, and several other pitchers on contending teams could pitch their way into the discussion down the stretch thanks to inflated win numbers and impressive strikeout-to-walk ratios.
Here's how the ERA+ numbers break down thus far:
1. Zack Greinke, Kansas City: 180
2. Edwin Jackson, Detroit: 163
3. Roy Halladay, Toronto: 160
4. Felix Hernandez, Seattle: 159
5. Josh Beckett, Boston: 152
Cliff Lee ranks sixth on the list with an ERA+ of 145, but he ain't winning the American League Cy Young Award this year.
That, though, is a pretty good list of candidates. Let's start there. Here's how the strikeout-to-walk numbers break down for the above five pitchers thus far:
1. Halladay: 6.57
2. Greinke: 5.06
3. Beckett: 3.45
4. Hernandez: 2.98
5. Jackson: 2.45
Finally, because it matters to Cy Young voters, the win totals:
1. Beckett: 14
t-2. Halladay: 12
t-2. Hernandez: 12
4. Greinke: 11
5. Jackson: 8
Jackson deserves to remain in the conversation at this point based on his sensational first half for the first-place Tigers, but his ERA is going in the wrong direction and his win total currently ranks him in a tie for 25th in the American League, tied with Vicente Padilla and Nick Blackburn.
Unless Jackson goes on a scalding-hot run over the last six weeks of the season, this is a four-horse race between Beckett, Greinke, Halladay and Hernandez. Greinke and Halladay ought to have an edge at this point -- the ERA+ standings suggest it's still Greinke and everyone else -- but whoever has the best September likely is going to walk away with some hardware.
For Halladay, it would be his second Cy Young. For everyone else, it would be first-time occasion.
Who's it going to be? Who's going to have the best September?
Beckett
As you might imagine given his tremendous playoff resume, Beckett is a spectacular September pitcher. His career ERA in the final month of the season is 2.77 to go along with a career strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.08.
Two years ago, Beckett went 4-0 with a 2.25 ERA and a 30-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio from Sept. 4-21. But he stumbled in his last start, surrendering five earned runs in six innings at Minnesota, and that might have been enough to lose him the Cy Young Award.
Greinke
The Royals' 25-year-old wunderkind doesn't have spectacular career numbers across the board -- this is his first Cy Young-worthy season, after all -- but he's always been an outstanding September pitcher. He has a 2.80 ERA and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of almost 3.5 in his career in the season's final month.
A year ago, perhaps foreshadowing the dominance he would display this season, Greinke finished his season by throwing 14 straight shutout innings in back-to-back wins over the Mariners and Tigers.
Halladay
Surprise, surprise: The Man Who Would Not Be Traded has a 2.51 ERA in September and a strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.85) better than any other month. He made a hard charge for the Cy Young Award last season, even as Lee seemed to have it wrapped up, recording a 2.06 ERA in August and a 3.34 ERA in September.
He sealed the first Cy Young Award of his career in 2003 with an unbelievable September: 5-1 with a 1.41 ERA and a pair of complete-game shutouts.
Hernandez
It's hard to believe the Mariners' ace still is just 23 years old -- but, then again, that's why Theo Epstein wanted so badly to trade for him back in July. It's tough to look at the history with a pitcher so young, but in the last two years, he's had polar opposite Septembers. The Mariners lost each of his final five starts a year ago, including a season-ending outing in which he surrendered 13 hits in six innings.
In 2007, though, he went 4-0 with a 3.35 ERA, throwing 8 2/3 impressive innings against Texas on the final day of the regular season.
The verdict?
At this point, it's still Greinke and Halladay and everyone else. Neither has shown a tendency to let up in the season's final month, and both lead Beckett -- who has an edge over Hernandez for third place at this point -- in every meaningful category except wins. (As an aside: If you judge a pitcher primarily by his win total, we can't be friends.)
Then again, of course, there's a lefthanded pitcher with more strikeouts than Halladay and fewer walks than Hernandez and a better chance to get to 15 wins than Greinke. With more than a month still to play, you can't count out Jon Lester, either.
Voters won't have that type of problem this season. The American League Cy Young Award race is shaping up to be a doozy down the stretch. Five pitchers feature an ERA+ of 150 to this point, and several other pitchers on contending teams could pitch their way into the discussion down the stretch thanks to inflated win numbers and impressive strikeout-to-walk ratios.
Here's how the ERA+ numbers break down thus far:
1. Zack Greinke, Kansas City: 180
2. Edwin Jackson, Detroit: 163
3. Roy Halladay, Toronto: 160
4. Felix Hernandez, Seattle: 159
5. Josh Beckett, Boston: 152
Cliff Lee ranks sixth on the list with an ERA+ of 145, but he ain't winning the American League Cy Young Award this year.
That, though, is a pretty good list of candidates. Let's start there. Here's how the strikeout-to-walk numbers break down for the above five pitchers thus far:
1. Halladay: 6.57
2. Greinke: 5.06
3. Beckett: 3.45
4. Hernandez: 2.98
5. Jackson: 2.45
Finally, because it matters to Cy Young voters, the win totals:
1. Beckett: 14
t-2. Halladay: 12
t-2. Hernandez: 12
4. Greinke: 11
5. Jackson: 8
Jackson deserves to remain in the conversation at this point based on his sensational first half for the first-place Tigers, but his ERA is going in the wrong direction and his win total currently ranks him in a tie for 25th in the American League, tied with Vicente Padilla and Nick Blackburn.
Unless Jackson goes on a scalding-hot run over the last six weeks of the season, this is a four-horse race between Beckett, Greinke, Halladay and Hernandez. Greinke and Halladay ought to have an edge at this point -- the ERA+ standings suggest it's still Greinke and everyone else -- but whoever has the best September likely is going to walk away with some hardware.
For Halladay, it would be his second Cy Young. For everyone else, it would be first-time occasion.
Who's it going to be? Who's going to have the best September?
Beckett
As you might imagine given his tremendous playoff resume, Beckett is a spectacular September pitcher. His career ERA in the final month of the season is 2.77 to go along with a career strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.08.
Two years ago, Beckett went 4-0 with a 2.25 ERA and a 30-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio from Sept. 4-21. But he stumbled in his last start, surrendering five earned runs in six innings at Minnesota, and that might have been enough to lose him the Cy Young Award.
Greinke
The Royals' 25-year-old wunderkind doesn't have spectacular career numbers across the board -- this is his first Cy Young-worthy season, after all -- but he's always been an outstanding September pitcher. He has a 2.80 ERA and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of almost 3.5 in his career in the season's final month.
A year ago, perhaps foreshadowing the dominance he would display this season, Greinke finished his season by throwing 14 straight shutout innings in back-to-back wins over the Mariners and Tigers.
Halladay
Surprise, surprise: The Man Who Would Not Be Traded has a 2.51 ERA in September and a strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.85) better than any other month. He made a hard charge for the Cy Young Award last season, even as Lee seemed to have it wrapped up, recording a 2.06 ERA in August and a 3.34 ERA in September.
He sealed the first Cy Young Award of his career in 2003 with an unbelievable September: 5-1 with a 1.41 ERA and a pair of complete-game shutouts.
Hernandez
It's hard to believe the Mariners' ace still is just 23 years old -- but, then again, that's why Theo Epstein wanted so badly to trade for him back in July. It's tough to look at the history with a pitcher so young, but in the last two years, he's had polar opposite Septembers. The Mariners lost each of his final five starts a year ago, including a season-ending outing in which he surrendered 13 hits in six innings.
In 2007, though, he went 4-0 with a 3.35 ERA, throwing 8 2/3 impressive innings against Texas on the final day of the regular season.
The verdict?
At this point, it's still Greinke and Halladay and everyone else. Neither has shown a tendency to let up in the season's final month, and both lead Beckett -- who has an edge over Hernandez for third place at this point -- in every meaningful category except wins. (As an aside: If you judge a pitcher primarily by his win total, we can't be friends.)
Then again, of course, there's a lefthanded pitcher with more strikeouts than Halladay and fewer walks than Hernandez and a better chance to get to 15 wins than Greinke. With more than a month still to play, you can't count out Jon Lester, either.
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Contrasting Beckett's two Stadium starts
(This is all part of an ongoing effort to understand and explain some of the data included in PitchFX charts, an incredible reservoir of information about pitchers and pitching and everything that goes into that part of the game. You can find those charts for every major-league pitcher in every game at www.brooksbaseball.net.)
Josh Beckett, like fellow ace Jon Lester, found himself knocked around a little bit to start the season. He had a 7.22 ERA at the end of April and allowed 10 hits in three straight starts, a stretch that included a May 5 start at Yankee Stadium in which he escaped having allowed just three earned runs in six innings.
He then went back to Yankee Stadium on Friday night and pitched seven spectacular innings, holding the Yankees without a run on four hits in a game that eventually went deep into the night before Alex Rodriguez went deep against relief Junichi Tazawa.
When you look at the PitchFX charts, you can see some significant differences between the way Beckett attacked the Yankees on May 5 and the way he attacked the Yankees on Aug. 7:
1. Using the whole plate against lefties
Part of the issue with the new Yankee Stadium is the short porch in right field, the only place in the world where Dustin Pedroia can hit an opposite-field home run. A strong lefty can get a ball in on the fists and, as long as he gets his body turned just a little bit, muscle a ball over that fence.
Check out the way Beckett pitched lefties on May 5 -- keeping in mind that the chart is from the perspective of the catcher...
... and the way Beckett pitched lefties on Aug. 7:
He consciously pitched away from the inside half of the plate against lefties -- and switch-hitters like Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher, naturally hitting lefthanded against him -- and instead worked the outer half. He didn't give lefties a chance to take the ball over the fence in right field, but he did give them a chance to extend their arms and a chance to dive out over the plate a little bit. If Beckett gives up the inside half of the plate, he gives up quite a bit of his effectiveness.
The next time he pitched at Yankee Stadium, he didn't pitch to the ballpark. He pitched his game. He attacked the inside half of the plate. In doing so, he regained control of every at-bat.
(One thing he also did: He buried his curveball. Rather than throwing his curveball in a spot where it could be hit, he threw it down and in and even in the dirt occasionally. If it's going to be a strikeout pitch, that's what he has to do with it.)
2. Reintroducing the two-seam fastball and changeup
Beckett is dangerous enough with two pitches. When he can throw a third pitch with effectiveness, it makes him all the more lethal.
Check out two more charts, first from May 5...
and, second, from Aug. 7:
It helped that he threw his fastball with a little more velocity, of course. But the key to pitching isn't speed as much as it is differential and timing: The more a pitcher can keep hitters off-balance, the better. Throwing a 95-mile-an-hour four-seam fastball isn't going to help much if your two-seam fastball is 92 or 93 with similar movement. You might as well ditch the two-seamer and just throw four-seamers all night long.
In Beckett's Aug. 7 start at Yankee Stadium, though, he found a way to differentiate his two-seam fastball from his four-seam fastball. Both pitches had the same type of movement but were separated by six or seven miles per hour rather than three or four miles per hour.
On top of that, he threw his two-seamer with consistency. Graphs like the above graphs can be overwhelming, but what's often most telling is how closely grouped the points of data are. A pitcher always strives to throw his pitches with consistency, to have the same velocity and the same movement on every fastball and simply to vary the location and pitch selection to keep the hitter off-balance. If fastballs show different amounts of movement, they're going to be difficult to control and thus throw with pinpoint control.
The chart from May 5 shots Beckett throwing two-seamers and changeups with varying wildly varying amounts of movement. You couldn't draw a circle around that group of data points; you'd have to draw an awkward-looking oval. His changeups and two-seamers from Aug. 7, though, fit neatly into a confined area and indeed could be contained within a pretty small circle.
That's what consistency and pinpoint control looks like.
Josh Beckett, like fellow ace Jon Lester, found himself knocked around a little bit to start the season. He had a 7.22 ERA at the end of April and allowed 10 hits in three straight starts, a stretch that included a May 5 start at Yankee Stadium in which he escaped having allowed just three earned runs in six innings.
He then went back to Yankee Stadium on Friday night and pitched seven spectacular innings, holding the Yankees without a run on four hits in a game that eventually went deep into the night before Alex Rodriguez went deep against relief Junichi Tazawa.
When you look at the PitchFX charts, you can see some significant differences between the way Beckett attacked the Yankees on May 5 and the way he attacked the Yankees on Aug. 7:
1. Using the whole plate against lefties
Part of the issue with the new Yankee Stadium is the short porch in right field, the only place in the world where Dustin Pedroia can hit an opposite-field home run. A strong lefty can get a ball in on the fists and, as long as he gets his body turned just a little bit, muscle a ball over that fence.
Check out the way Beckett pitched lefties on May 5 -- keeping in mind that the chart is from the perspective of the catcher...
... and the way Beckett pitched lefties on Aug. 7:
He consciously pitched away from the inside half of the plate against lefties -- and switch-hitters like Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher, naturally hitting lefthanded against him -- and instead worked the outer half. He didn't give lefties a chance to take the ball over the fence in right field, but he did give them a chance to extend their arms and a chance to dive out over the plate a little bit. If Beckett gives up the inside half of the plate, he gives up quite a bit of his effectiveness.
The next time he pitched at Yankee Stadium, he didn't pitch to the ballpark. He pitched his game. He attacked the inside half of the plate. In doing so, he regained control of every at-bat.
(One thing he also did: He buried his curveball. Rather than throwing his curveball in a spot where it could be hit, he threw it down and in and even in the dirt occasionally. If it's going to be a strikeout pitch, that's what he has to do with it.)
2. Reintroducing the two-seam fastball and changeup
Beckett is dangerous enough with two pitches. When he can throw a third pitch with effectiveness, it makes him all the more lethal.
Check out two more charts, first from May 5...
and, second, from Aug. 7:
It helped that he threw his fastball with a little more velocity, of course. But the key to pitching isn't speed as much as it is differential and timing: The more a pitcher can keep hitters off-balance, the better. Throwing a 95-mile-an-hour four-seam fastball isn't going to help much if your two-seam fastball is 92 or 93 with similar movement. You might as well ditch the two-seamer and just throw four-seamers all night long.
In Beckett's Aug. 7 start at Yankee Stadium, though, he found a way to differentiate his two-seam fastball from his four-seam fastball. Both pitches had the same type of movement but were separated by six or seven miles per hour rather than three or four miles per hour.
On top of that, he threw his two-seamer with consistency. Graphs like the above graphs can be overwhelming, but what's often most telling is how closely grouped the points of data are. A pitcher always strives to throw his pitches with consistency, to have the same velocity and the same movement on every fastball and simply to vary the location and pitch selection to keep the hitter off-balance. If fastballs show different amounts of movement, they're going to be difficult to control and thus throw with pinpoint control.
The chart from May 5 shots Beckett throwing two-seamers and changeups with varying wildly varying amounts of movement. You couldn't draw a circle around that group of data points; you'd have to draw an awkward-looking oval. His changeups and two-seamers from Aug. 7, though, fit neatly into a confined area and indeed could be contained within a pretty small circle.
That's what consistency and pinpoint control looks like.
Making do without Kevin Youkilis
(Update: Youkilis has been suspended for five games and will begin serving his suspension on Wednesday night.)
The Red Sox will be without the services of Kevin Youkilis for between five and eight games over the next couple of weeks, the severity of his punishment for charging the mound likely to be announced at some point today.
Red Sox manager Terry Francona, who was ejected the same inning for an argument unrelated to the brawl, seemed resigned Tuesday to losing his best hitter and most versatile infielder.
"I'm sure something will happen," he said. "We'll just wait and see. Youk's a real good player, and his versatility makes it even better for us. But we have guys -- we should be able to do this. You don't want to lose any players, but I'm sure something will happen."
Might the throw of the helmet tack on a game or two?
"Yeah, probably," Francona said.
To take a quick look at history, Coco Crisp charged the mound against Tampa Bay a year ago and had a suspension of seven games handed down the next day. Crisp appealed the suspension and played for the next two weeks or so before a conference call with league officials could be scheduled, and he then served a five-game suspension at the end of June.
(Crisp did not throw his helmet the way Youkilis did, but he did throw a punch, and that might even things out.)
It's unlikely the league will allow Youkilis to drag out his appeal as long as Crisp did given how little time is left in the season. The Red Sox travel to Texas for a three-game set on Friday and host the Yankees for a three-game set starting Aug. 21, and that means it might be most convenient for Youkilis to start serving his suspension on Aug. 24, right in the middle of a lengthy homestand.
Either way, though, Youkilis is going to miss some time.
The Red Sox will have to piece things together without him -- and the biggest impact actually won't come at the plate, particularly given the way Francona has managed his lineup to this point.
Mike Lowell will play third base just about full-time during the suspension with Nick Green or Chris Woodward perhaps being able to spell him for a day or two. (Woodward played third base 15 times for the Seattle Mariners earlier this year.) Lowell has made just five starts -- including just three in the field -- since the team's July 31 trade for Victor Martinez, and the Red Sox have made it a point of emphasis to give him frequent days off as they juggle their glut of corner infielders.
"I don't think we need to take credit for him swinging the bat well," Francona said. "He’s been a good hitter for a lot of years. I have a feeling his hip hopefully feels a little bit better. I think he would like to play more. I completely understand that. I would hope his hip feels better as he doesn’t grind on it as much, but I don’t think we need to take credit for him being a good hitter."
But the 35-year-old is hitting .333 and OPS'ing 1.107 during that span, and he's been among the team's most productive hitters in the month of August:
* Jason Bay, 1.303 (including a home run on Tuesday)
* Youkilis, 1.133
* Lowell, 1.107
* Dustin Pedroia, 1.044
* J.D. Drew, .770
* Victor Martinez, .755
* Jacoby Ellsbury, .666
* David Ortiz, .339
* Jason Varitek, .310
(As an aside: It's getting more and more obvious that Lowell needs to be taking at-bats away from Ortiz, whose OPS is only six points higher than Lowell's batting average. Ortiz has 40 plate appearances in August so far, and Lowell has just 25. If Lowell keeps tearing the cover off the ball during Youkilis' suspension, he's eventually going to force Francona's hand.)
Playing Lowell every day in place of Youkilis -- with Victor Martinez and Casey Kotchman sharing time at first base -- isn't going to ruin the Red Sox offense.
Defensively, though, it's going to be a problem.
It's been well-documented here and elsewhere: Lowell has been a woeful defensive third baseman this season. His Ultimate Zone Rating now is minus-9.9, third-worst among all third basemen, and if he'd played as many games as the Rangers' Michael Young, he'd be second-worst among all third basemen. He's made just nine errors all year, but his limited mobility means it's almost impossible for him to get to anything hit more than two steps to his left or to bunts or slow ground balls in front of him.
Youkilis hasn't been a spectacular defensive third baseman this year -- his UZR is minus-1.7 after coming in at 4.8 last season -- but his athleticism has given him a chance to make some plays Lowell has not.
On top of that, by playing Kotchman or Martinez at first base, the Red Sox have to make a compromise in some area. Kotchman has never become the Will Clark-type hitter many expected him to be, but he is a terrific defensive first baseman. His UZR this season is plus-3.8, and that's coming off back-to-back seasons in which it was at least 5.1.
According to John Dewan's Fielding Bible plus-minus system, Kotchman has been the sixth-best defensive first baseman in the major leagues this season. (The best? Youkilis.)
Martinez, on the other hand, is an All-Star hitter but an average defensive first baseman -- and certainly not in the category of either Kotchman or Youkilis. He certainly could play catcher most of the time and take at-bats away from a clearly struggling Varitek, but if Francona hasn't made that choice to this point, he's not going to do it while Youkilis is suspended.
Either way, the suspension of Youkilis is going to cost the Red Sox runs both through diminished defensive range at third base and through subpar offensive production at either first base or catcher.
On the other hand, if Lowell plays lousy defense but keeps crushing the ball at third base, he might just convince Francona he needs to be in the lineup every day as the team's designated hitter.
"I don't know why you wouldn't want good bats in your lineup," Lowell said after the game, his tone that of a veteran who doesn't want to rock the boat but who also wants to answer questions honestly and get a point across. "When you're swinging the bat well, you want to play every day. I stand by that."
That, my friends, is what you call a silver lining.
The Red Sox will be without the services of Kevin Youkilis for between five and eight games over the next couple of weeks, the severity of his punishment for charging the mound likely to be announced at some point today.
Red Sox manager Terry Francona, who was ejected the same inning for an argument unrelated to the brawl, seemed resigned Tuesday to losing his best hitter and most versatile infielder.
"I'm sure something will happen," he said. "We'll just wait and see. Youk's a real good player, and his versatility makes it even better for us. But we have guys -- we should be able to do this. You don't want to lose any players, but I'm sure something will happen."
Might the throw of the helmet tack on a game or two?
"Yeah, probably," Francona said.
To take a quick look at history, Coco Crisp charged the mound against Tampa Bay a year ago and had a suspension of seven games handed down the next day. Crisp appealed the suspension and played for the next two weeks or so before a conference call with league officials could be scheduled, and he then served a five-game suspension at the end of June.
(Crisp did not throw his helmet the way Youkilis did, but he did throw a punch, and that might even things out.)
It's unlikely the league will allow Youkilis to drag out his appeal as long as Crisp did given how little time is left in the season. The Red Sox travel to Texas for a three-game set on Friday and host the Yankees for a three-game set starting Aug. 21, and that means it might be most convenient for Youkilis to start serving his suspension on Aug. 24, right in the middle of a lengthy homestand.
Either way, though, Youkilis is going to miss some time.
The Red Sox will have to piece things together without him -- and the biggest impact actually won't come at the plate, particularly given the way Francona has managed his lineup to this point.
Mike Lowell will play third base just about full-time during the suspension with Nick Green or Chris Woodward perhaps being able to spell him for a day or two. (Woodward played third base 15 times for the Seattle Mariners earlier this year.) Lowell has made just five starts -- including just three in the field -- since the team's July 31 trade for Victor Martinez, and the Red Sox have made it a point of emphasis to give him frequent days off as they juggle their glut of corner infielders.
"I don't think we need to take credit for him swinging the bat well," Francona said. "He’s been a good hitter for a lot of years. I have a feeling his hip hopefully feels a little bit better. I think he would like to play more. I completely understand that. I would hope his hip feels better as he doesn’t grind on it as much, but I don’t think we need to take credit for him being a good hitter."
But the 35-year-old is hitting .333 and OPS'ing 1.107 during that span, and he's been among the team's most productive hitters in the month of August:
* Jason Bay, 1.303 (including a home run on Tuesday)
* Youkilis, 1.133
* Lowell, 1.107
* Dustin Pedroia, 1.044
* J.D. Drew, .770
* Victor Martinez, .755
* Jacoby Ellsbury, .666
* David Ortiz, .339
* Jason Varitek, .310
(As an aside: It's getting more and more obvious that Lowell needs to be taking at-bats away from Ortiz, whose OPS is only six points higher than Lowell's batting average. Ortiz has 40 plate appearances in August so far, and Lowell has just 25. If Lowell keeps tearing the cover off the ball during Youkilis' suspension, he's eventually going to force Francona's hand.)
Playing Lowell every day in place of Youkilis -- with Victor Martinez and Casey Kotchman sharing time at first base -- isn't going to ruin the Red Sox offense.
Defensively, though, it's going to be a problem.
It's been well-documented here and elsewhere: Lowell has been a woeful defensive third baseman this season. His Ultimate Zone Rating now is minus-9.9, third-worst among all third basemen, and if he'd played as many games as the Rangers' Michael Young, he'd be second-worst among all third basemen. He's made just nine errors all year, but his limited mobility means it's almost impossible for him to get to anything hit more than two steps to his left or to bunts or slow ground balls in front of him.
Youkilis hasn't been a spectacular defensive third baseman this year -- his UZR is minus-1.7 after coming in at 4.8 last season -- but his athleticism has given him a chance to make some plays Lowell has not.
On top of that, by playing Kotchman or Martinez at first base, the Red Sox have to make a compromise in some area. Kotchman has never become the Will Clark-type hitter many expected him to be, but he is a terrific defensive first baseman. His UZR this season is plus-3.8, and that's coming off back-to-back seasons in which it was at least 5.1.
According to John Dewan's Fielding Bible plus-minus system, Kotchman has been the sixth-best defensive first baseman in the major leagues this season. (The best? Youkilis.)
Martinez, on the other hand, is an All-Star hitter but an average defensive first baseman -- and certainly not in the category of either Kotchman or Youkilis. He certainly could play catcher most of the time and take at-bats away from a clearly struggling Varitek, but if Francona hasn't made that choice to this point, he's not going to do it while Youkilis is suspended.
Either way, the suspension of Youkilis is going to cost the Red Sox runs both through diminished defensive range at third base and through subpar offensive production at either first base or catcher.
On the other hand, if Lowell plays lousy defense but keeps crushing the ball at third base, he might just convince Francona he needs to be in the lineup every day as the team's designated hitter.
"I don't know why you wouldn't want good bats in your lineup," Lowell said after the game, his tone that of a veteran who doesn't want to rock the boat but who also wants to answer questions honestly and get a point across. "When you're swinging the bat well, you want to play every day. I stand by that."
That, my friends, is what you call a silver lining.
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Tazawa settles down after wild first inning
(Thanks again to brooksbaseball.net for the PitchFX charts.)
Junichi Tazawa's first inning -- Nick Green error or no Nick Green error -- looked quite a bit different than his final four innings. He repeatedly let Detroit hitters off the hook in the first inning, going to a two-strike count six times and an 0-2 count four times and striking out exactly no one. Even when he got outs, he repeatedly let hitters extend at-bats far beyond what he needed to do.
"We somewhat self-destructed defensively a little bit to extend that inning," pitching coach John Farrell said. "That was completely out of his control. The thing he did that was most impressive was continue to execute pitches despite a couple of ground balls that could have shortened up the first inning."
Said Tazawa through a team interpreter, "I was wondering, 'What will happen? Will I be OK?' It was an unsteady time for me."
By the fifth inning, though, it appeared that he'd figured things out. He jumped ahead of Clete Thomas by an 0-2 count -- the same Clete Thomas who had singled up the middle on a 1-2 pitch in the first inning -- and put him away with a fastball up and out of the strike zone.
"I think, in the first two innings, my control was not as good as it should have been," Tazawa said. "But by the third inning, I was getting more used to it, and I think the pitches responded to that."
Check out these two charts. The key to the approach plot is to imagine it from the catcher's point of view, meaning everything off to the right side of the chart is outside and everything to the left side is inside, be it again lefties or righties.
Tazawa's first inning
Junichi Tazawa's first inning -- Nick Green error or no Nick Green error -- looked quite a bit different than his final four innings. He repeatedly let Detroit hitters off the hook in the first inning, going to a two-strike count six times and an 0-2 count four times and striking out exactly no one. Even when he got outs, he repeatedly let hitters extend at-bats far beyond what he needed to do.
"We somewhat self-destructed defensively a little bit to extend that inning," pitching coach John Farrell said. "That was completely out of his control. The thing he did that was most impressive was continue to execute pitches despite a couple of ground balls that could have shortened up the first inning."
Said Tazawa through a team interpreter, "I was wondering, 'What will happen? Will I be OK?' It was an unsteady time for me."
By the fifth inning, though, it appeared that he'd figured things out. He jumped ahead of Clete Thomas by an 0-2 count -- the same Clete Thomas who had singled up the middle on a 1-2 pitch in the first inning -- and put him away with a fastball up and out of the strike zone.
"I think, in the first two innings, my control was not as good as it should have been," Tazawa said. "But by the third inning, I was getting more used to it, and I think the pitches responded to that."
Check out these two charts. The key to the approach plot is to imagine it from the catcher's point of view, meaning everything off to the right side of the chart is outside and everything to the left side is inside, be it again lefties or righties.
Tazawa's first inning
Tazawa's final four innings
The biggest thing to notice: The Tigers put two pitches in play (blue dots) that were up and over the middle in the first inning alone: Curtis Granderson's pop-up to short and Brandon Inge's run-scoring double to left field.
In the final four innings, though, Tazawa effectively kept the ball out of the middle of the plate -- and, more importantly, kept the Tigers from putting any of those pitches in play. The only ball the Tigers hit that could be considered up and over the plate was Ryan Raburn's bunt attempt in the fifth inning.
"His fastball command, particularly down in the strike zone, and his split got better as the game went along," Farrell said. "He was very impressive for the five innings he pitched tonight."
Tazawa also didn't waste pitches well off the plate the way he did in the first inning. His waste pitches instead were curveballs and changeups in the dirt, pitches that are going to induce more swings and misses than fastballs well outside.
His chart from the first inning looks like a dartboard in which his misses seem evenly spaced out on all sides. His chart from the final four innings looks like that of a pitcher who has a game plan -- keep the ball down and away, particularly to the Tigers' righthanded hitters, taking the Green Monster away as an ally. (He attacked the zone more against lefties, venturing up and out of the zone in his strikeouts of Clete Thomas and Alex Avila.)
"The action and the consistency to his secondary pitches, particularly his split, became a little more sharp (after the first inning) and a little bit more consistent down in the strike zone to get some swings and misses," Farrell said.
You can't take too much out of one start. John Smoltz, after all, settled down after a rough first inning in Washington back in June but never again recaptured the promise he'd shown in the final four innings of that outing.
But seeing Tazawa execute his game plan through the final four innings against the Tigers on Tuesday night still had to bring a smile to the face of everyone in the Red Sox organization.
Papelbon revamped mechanics after meltdown
Jonathan Papelbon has not allowed a run and has allowed just one hit in his last 5 2/3 innings, striking out six and walking no one in the process. He hasn't allowed a base-runner in his last four outings -- the first time all season he's gone four outings without allowing a hit and just the third time all season he's gone four outings without walking anyone.
It's not just a hot streak, either. Papelbon clearly got to work on his mechanics in the aftermath of his July 28 meltdown against the Oakland Athletics, and it's paying off.
Among the areas of emphasis:
1. His set position
For most of his career, Papelbon has come to a set position with his hands at his belt -- but he made a significant change going into this season. It's pretty easy to see when you look at them side-by-side.
Here's the final out of the 2007 World Series:
It's not just a hot streak, either. Papelbon clearly got to work on his mechanics in the aftermath of his July 28 meltdown against the Oakland Athletics, and it's paying off.
Among the areas of emphasis:
1. His set position
For most of his career, Papelbon has come to a set position with his hands at his belt -- but he made a significant change going into this season. It's pretty easy to see when you look at them side-by-side.
Here's the final out of the 2007 World Series:
Here's the final out of a game in early May:
Here's the double Papelbon surrendered to rookie Tommy Everidge, the biggest hit of that three-run inning:
Here's the Papelbon's four-out save against Detroit on Monday night. He brings his glove once again to his chest, just above the letters, but when he comes to a set position, his glove is almost resting on his belt buckle. It's a difference of almost a foot.
Papelbon and Farrell revamped his set position in the offseason and clearly have spent this season making tweaks as the closer's effectiveness has diminished. (His ERA hasn't been terrible, but he's allowing baserunners at a far higher clip this season than in seasons past.)
"There were a couple of benefits that came from it, and there were a couple of things that were drawbacks as well," Farrell said. "The benefit is that he’s used his legs more, and his bounce-back and his recovery time has been much shorter this year -- but he was sacrificing some fastball command and consistent location."
It was Papelbon who brought up the idea of making the adjustment, of returning to the mechanics that worked so well for him last season.
"The biggest thing was, it allowed his arms to relax," Farrell said. "In the previous set position, if you can recall and visualize, his back elbow was rigid and pointed outward, and it didn’t give him the natural fluidity that he’s showing now."
2. His release point
Every pitcher in the world knows the importance of consistency, the importance of throwing the ball from the same spot with the same delivery every time. Without a consistent delivery and a consistent point of release, a pitcher can't depend on his fastball go where he wants and his offspeed pitches to break the way he wants.
Papelbon's release points on July 28
Papelbon's release points on Aug. 10
Look at his release point on July 28 and and how much it varied. Look at his release point from Monday night and how tightly all the points are grouped. It's subtle, but it's there. That's a sign that he's made it an emphasis to find some consistency with where the ball comes out of his hand.
His release point actually comes back to his set position, too. With his hands set stiffly at his chest, he tended to let his motion take him "east-west," as Farrell said, rather than directly toward home plate. That almost certainly contributed to a lack of consistency in his release point.
"With the adjustment, it's allowed him to stay more on line and more true through the spot," Farrell said.
(Thanks to Dan Brooks and brooksbaseball.net for the Pitch f/x charts. All of the information is gleaned from MLB.com's Gameday data.)
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